At -49 percentage points, sentiment for Euroland equities marks a level never before measured in history! This makes the contrarian investor prick up his ears. Usually, such extremes in sentiment occur near market lows. However, very strong declines in sentiment can also trigger one last big avalanche, accompanied by short-covering actions. This was the case in August 2008, for example. With the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the high level of pessimism was discharged into sharply falling share prices.

Further results

• Bonds: Low neutrality
• USD/JPY: Opportunities for the yen indicated
• sentix economic index: Monday 09th May 2022 at 10:30 CEST

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

The stock markets remain under pressure. This leads to a slump in sentiment. In addition to the sentix index, the AAII index is also as low as it was last in 2005. Contrary opportunities arise from such a bearish sentiment situation. However, the market lacks value perception. The basic strategic conviction is missing. In the special analysis we highlighted the Ukraine conflict. For investors, a recession in 2022 is almost certain.

Further results

• Bonds: Bias continues to rise
• EUR-USD: Postive signals from TD-Index
• sentix special survey on Ukraine crisis

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Investors are passing harsh judgment on equities. The withdrawal of confidence is particularly severe in the run-up to the presidential run-off election in France: the strategic bias for French equities is eroding at a record pace. The U.S. technology stock market is also suffering in investor favor, with medium-term confidence sinking to its lowest level since April 2005! The top formation of the Nasdaq was indicated early by the bias.

Further results

• Bonds: Rising value perception
• USD/JPY: Contrarians signals pile up
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

We wish all sentix survey participants a happy and blessed Easter. This week there is therefore a slightly shortened holiday edition.

Further results

• Bonds: Positive signals
• Gold: Basic confidence rises
• sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

 Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

The Strategic Bias falls to a new all-time low for most stock markets! It is remarkable how dynamically the confidence barometer has lost value again since the March low (after the start of war in Ukraine) - although prices have recovered in the meantime. This smells of new selling pressure! What is lost at shares at confidence, is rebuilt at the U.S. bond market. Value perception is increasingly emerging here!

Further results

• US-Bonds: 52-week high in bias
• Gold mining shares: Constructive baseline situation
• sentix sector sentiment

 Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Weak, weaker, equity bias - and that globally. Despite stabilization tendencies on the stock market, there is no confidence in dividend stocks, even though the seasonally positive dividend season is now upon us. Things look better for US bonds, with the corresponding bias continuing to rise. Moreover, the risk radar gives a green light for bonds. In precious metals, silver stands out positively. There is a silver lining on the horizon.

Further results

• US-Bonds: Price opportunities prevail
• Commodities: A silver lining on the horizon
• sentix economic index: Monday, 04th April 2022 at 10:30 CEST

 Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

The strategic bias for equities in the eurozone has fallen to its lowest level since July 2020, with investors interpreting the price recovery in the indices as an opportunity to reduce their positions. As pessimism in sentiment has given way at the same time, price risks are emerging on the stock market. The situation is reversed on the U.S. bond market, where countercyclical buy signals are increasingly appearing. Crude oil prices could fall and thus provide relief for inflation fears.

Further results

• US-Bonds: Buying opportunity displayed
• Commodities: Crude oil ticked off
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Early start or false start? That is the question currently being asked of Euroland equities, because the strength of stocks before the March futures expiry on Friday is unusual. Usually, stocks rise after the expiry into the "strong" April month. It is unlikely to be that easy in 2022. For just as unusual as the seasonal pattern is the sentix data situation at present. The signs point to continued unrest.

Further results

• FX: Euro recovery likely to be weak
• Precious metals: Consolidation continues
• sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

After the very negative sentiment extreme on the stock market, prices were able to recover somewhat. Sentiment remains depressed, but this creates opportunities in line with a contrarian sentiment strategy. However, the weak development in the strategic bias weighs on the picture. Meanwhile, greater risks are also indicated for gold bulls. Here, too, there is an unfavourable development in fundamental confidence.

Further results

• FX: Euro opportunities grow
• Gold: Risks for the gold bulls
• sentix Sector Sentiment: Ukraine crises with major impact

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Access the English version

The past week saw a significant rise in investor fears of a widening of the Ukraine conflict and major economic dislocations. We measure a multitude of all-time highs or lows in our data! At the same time, investors have also reduced their portfolio risks. Professionals are similarly cautiously positioned as they were at the time of the Corona Crash in March 2020. Will we see a similar recovery process?

Further results

• Crude oil: Euphoria
• Gold: Sentiment as last seen in 2011
• sentix economic index: Monday, 07^th March 2022 at 10:30 CET

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

The equity bias (here USA) sends a sign of life once again for a long time, while equity sentiment remains downbeat. At the depressed price levels, more investors are now declaring their willingness to buy stocks. The investment degrees of the institutional ones prove: The now strong underinvestment opens up clear potential for a price recovery. U.S. bonds are also showing a similar sign of life, with their bias rising significantly.

Further results

• Equities: Signs of life
• US-Bonds: Signs of life
• Commodities: TD-Extreme on the top
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Sentiment on equities has deteriorated significantly over the week. For US equities, the number of bullish investors fell to the lowest level since 2017. This creates opportunities for contrarian investors, as statistically the S&P 500 rose significantly in around 75% of cases in subsequent weeks.

Further results

• Gold: High sentiment weighs
• Crude oil: Strategic confidence continues to decline
• sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

Fears of war arise! Investors are increasingly worried and also look negatively into the medium-term future: The bias for the U.S. equity market falls below the zero line even among institutional investors. The last time this situation occurred was in the midst of the Corona Crash in 2020. Energy prices in particular could be affected by an outbreak of war in Ukraine. One thing is certain: High risks for the oil price are already indicated!

Further results

• Bonds: Bonds might turn
• Commodities: Oil price already facing high risks
• sentix Sector Sentiment: All-time high in bank sentiment

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Investors in the U.S. equity market remain fearful, volatility structurally high. Does this mean it's time to get in? Medium-term underlying confidence is weak, even reaching new 52-week lows. So far, hardly any bargain hunters are willing to go on a buying spree at this level. The rise in interest rates is weighing too heavily on the mind. However, we are measuring increased contrarian signals in bonds in particular. The EUR/USD bias is also on the move.

Further results

• Equities: Bias continues to weaken
• FX: Rethinking process has begun
• sentix economic index: Monday, 07th February 2022 at 10:30 CET

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Sentiment in equities recovered over the course of the week. We still measure a certain scepticism, which has a stabilising effect in the short term. But the basic strategic confidence remains weak. Equities are not yet back in stable waters. On the other hand, we hear a clear sentiment signal for crude oil and the EUR-USD.

Further results

• Crude oil: Sell signals in sentiment
• EUR-USD: Much euro pessimism
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

The put-call ratio in the U.S. jumps up, sentiment tilts down. Normally, such contrary signals are a buy indication. But the strategic dimension weighs on the market, as do style preferences, which are unfavorable. The S&P should target the chart support at 4,300 points and then start a countermovement. However, whether this attempt is sustainable?

Further results

• Bonds: Things are moving before the FED meeting
• Gold: Constructive
• sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

For the first time since 2020, the strategic bias for US equities falls into negative territory. Accordingly, the majority of investors expect prices to fall over the next six months. The market is thus coming under a dangerous selling bias. With bullish sentiment at the same time, no all-clear can be given in the short term.

Further results

• Equities: Technology under pressure
• FX: USD-JPY bias falls
• sentix sector sentiment

The first trading week of the new year did not go to the bulls' liking. Especially not on the US stock market, where the first trading week ended with a minus. This weakness has left a heavy mark on investor sentiment. The number of bulls on the US stock market has abruptly become so low that this has created certain contrarian opportunities. However, the basic strategic confidence is unfortunately not yet playing along.

Further results

• Bonds: Contrarian opportunities
• Silver: Bias falls further
• sentix economic index: Monday 10.01.2022 at 10:30 CET

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Welcome to the new year 2022, which should bring you all much happiness, health, success and satisfaction. You will receive a brief commentary of some chart highlights with this issue. Next week we will continue in the usual format.

Further results:

• Equities: Bias remains weak
• Gold: Clearly better than silver
• Bonds: Sentiment signals opportunities soon

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

We wish you a Merry Christmas season and all the best for the coming year. At the same time, we would like to thank you for your active participation in the surveys during the past year. You will find enclosed a brief commentary on the current results.

Further results:

• Equities: Beautiful gift
• Gold mining shares: Vola impulse ahead
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

The US stock market failed to make a sustained leap to a new all-time high. After thinking twice, the FED's decision to scale back the purchase programme more quickly and announce key interest rate hikes did not go down so well after all. The medium-term basic confidence in equities is eroding. At the same time, sentiment scores are only neutral and thus not yet in the buy zone.

Further results:

• Equities: TD Index in unfavourable position
• Gold and gold mines: Patience should be rewarded
• sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

The price recovery in equities does not open up a new perspective for investors. Rather, the strategic bias is eroding, indicating a renewed willingness to take profits. Bonds could also be a source of trouble. The bias tilts again more clearly. Ultimately, the starting position for precious metals also worsens. "Risk off" seems to be a theme.

Further results:

• Gold: Problematic
• Bonds: Selloff could come
• sentix Sector Sentiment

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Where stock prices are stabilizing, investors do not believe they will improve: the bias for Chinese equities is sending no sign of life. In equity markets that recently corrected more significantly, the strategic bias rises again. Rehearsed reflexes are reactivated! This does not add up, especially since the stock sentiment reflects anything but panic. This probably has to happen before the ground is prepared for a tactical buying opportunity.

Further results:

• Gold: Deterioration
• Bitcoins: Mixed picture
• sentix economic index: Monday 06.12.2021 at 10:30 CET

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

The weakness of the stock market is clearly reflected in market sentiment. The number of bulls is falling significantly, so that sentix sentiment is slightly negative again. Even if this means that the data situation has tended to improve, the current consolidation phase is probably not yet over. However, the speed of adjustment in investor expectations suggests that the consolidation period will be shorter overall.

Further results:

• Bonds: Turn in strategic bias
• Crude oil: Consolidation not yet over
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Confidence in equities continues to wane. This can be observed not only for the Eurozone, but also for the other regions of the world. The euphoria that we were able to measure in classic sentiment just two weeks ago has also faded in a hurry. Instead, the countercyclical signals from the risk radars in bonds and crude oil are materializing.

Further results:

• Bonds: Signal quality of the risk radar - part 1
• Crude oil: Signal quality of the risk radar - part 2
• sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

After the very bullish sentiment values of the past week, sentiment has neutralised slightly with the onset of consolidation. However, an end to the current consolidation phase is not very likely, especially since the basic strategic confidence has also weakened further.

Further results:

• Precious metals: Investors are ecstatic
• FX: EUR-USD bias declines further
• sentix Sector Sentiment^th November 21 on 10:30h CET

Within a month, the mood on the stock markets has fundamentally changed. We measure a sentiment that has rarely been reached before - last in 2019! In the seasonally bullish phase of the year, such sentiment is less risky. But the current tear-down in underlying strategic confidence sends a reminder. In the short term, the upswing will be slowed either way.

Further results:

• Bonds: Turning bias
• FX: EUR-USD bias under pressure
• sentix Economic index: Monday, 8^th November 21 on 10:30h CET

Such a clear break in the crude oil bias should soon have consequences for oil prices. Over the past five weeks, the strategic bias has shed 24 percentage points. Both the absolute (negative) level and the rate of change of the indicator suggest declining crude oil prices. This should take some of the pressure off central banks to act. The interest rate market could benefit from this.

Further results:

• Equities: Halloween party
• Bonds: Trick or Treat
• Crude oil: Bias slides
• Precious metals: Silver picks up

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

The topic of inflation fears is pushing investors out of their bond exposures. This can be observed for euro bonds as well as for U.S. bonds. From a risk assessment perspective, this seems to mean that the worst is over, especially as the crude oil price is also signaling a high-risk situation and relief could be on the way. For the equity side, we also measure high investment levels. Now the professionals have also bought in and are gearing up for a positive fourth quarter of 2021.

Further results:

• Equities: China turns up
• Precious metals: gold and silver fight back
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)