My Tech Analyst: Thoughts on Web 2.0, Internet Advertising, and Enterprise Computing

Website Valuation

noreply@blogger.com (Bob) — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 00:24:00 +0000

As an analyst, I am frequently asked questions about valuation.

"Is Facebook really worth $15B?"

I recently saw a cool startup on killerstartups.com for website valuation company called ValueMyWeb.

They take a pretty novel approach to looking at site valuation by having a heavy component of the valuation based on the search engine performance of the site, along with the blog coverage, and traffic.

It's an interesting take on valuation with a more mathematical approach to looking at the asset value of a site.

Pretty interesting, check it out.

The downfall of another web 2.0 company

noreply@blogger.com (Bob) — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 23:10:00 +0000

Zazzle, a once hot web2.0 consumer internet company has now also been hit with layoffs.

This despite the great traffic growth over the past 12 months, where zazzle nearly doubled it's unique US visitors per month from 1M to 2M (according to compete.com)

I wonder if notable competitor, CafePress will be making similar announcements soon.

The entire Steve Ballmer Memo

noreply@blogger.com (Bob) — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 01:08:00 +0000

Here's the entire memo from Steve Ballmer. Interesting "rah-rah" to the troops.

Reality is that Microsoft's core business is still holding up quite well, but obviously they are getting crushed in search and online advertising.

The Microsoft Layoff

noreply@blogger.com (Bob) — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 20:53:00 +0000

Microsoft missed earnings yesterday and announced that they were laying off 5,000 employees and implementing a salary freeze. At the same time, the coming reported that they are planning to hire two to three thousand employees. So was this a real layoff - or just an excuse to cut some fat?

Some Cool New Search "Gadgets"

noreply@blogger.com (Bob) — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 07:30:00 +0000

The web is becoming a more and more competitive every day. Despite the downturn in the economy, as marketing dollars move to online, competition increases. Therefore it is becoming more and more important to understand the dynamics of competition in your landscape.

Recently, I have run into a wonderful widget called Review My Web that is a free website grader for understanding the competitive landscape.

It allows you to enter your website, a couple competitors, and you get an email with a detailed competitive report. It's great way to get started with SEO and understanding what your competitors are doing.

The best part is that you can't beat the price: it's free.

Future of Yahoo

noreply@blogger.com (Bob) — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 02:24:00 +0000

Yahoo's New Search
Yahoo has clearly been behind Google in terms of search, and has made significant moves to close the gap. After Terry Semel stepped down from his post, the company has returned back to basics - shifting focus away from new media to core services like search.

A new search
Yahoo has just launched several new features for its search engine, including a new "Search Assist" tool that automatically suggests search terms. The AJAX based tool, also allows guides you through refine your search. It's a great upgrade, and it's exciting to finally see some new innovations from Yahoo. For a glimpse into what's in store next for Yahoo Search, you can take a look at an alpha search site from Yahoo at: Search Alpha. It provides an integrated search engine that searches the web, flickr photos, yahoo answers, videos, news, and wikis for the information you are looking for.

Panama: Yahoo's answer to AdWords
Early this year Yahoo rolled out Project Panama, a major upgrade to US advertisers. With Panama, ads are better targetted and optimized based on their bid price, target geography, and click through rates. Advertisers get more effective ads with higher click through rates - while Yahoo and it's affilate network benefit from higher revenue. Of course, all of this is old news for advertisers who use AdWords - because these features have long been available on Google's network. But so far, the reports on Panama from advertisers has been positive, and it's better late than never.

What's next?
Rumor has it that the Yahoo executive team is having a meeting to talk about the strategy and the future of the company. Part of the plan: a major upgrade to Yahoo Publisher Network as a response to Google AdSense.

It's about time!

Who is the King of IM 2.0?

noreply@blogger.com (Bob) — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 23:45:00 +0000

Web 2.0’s Version of Instant Messaging

A whole new generation of applications and wave of innovation has arrived with "Web 2.0" And the instant messaging sector is no different. Instant messaging in the world of Web 2.0 (IM 2.0) works anywhere, because it is embedded in a browser, and there's never any software to install. It works with all the major IM services such as AOL, Yahoo, MSN, and ICQ. And you can run it on any device. IM 2.0 has seen mass user adoption over the last year, and like many other segments of Web 2.0, there’s no shortage of startups in this space.

Who are the key players in IM 2.0?

• Meebo is a Sequoia and DFJ backed ($12.5M in funding) startup that pioneered this model for IM. They have also continued to innovate: recently launching a popular iPhone version of their product, and an integrated file sharing capability.

• EBuddy is a venture backed startup ($6.9M in funding from Lowland Capital Partners) based in the Netherlands. They recently launched MySpace integration for their service, and provide support for a wide range of mobile devices (WAP or xHTML phones & PDAs and even provide support for Sony PSP & Nintendo DS).

• KoolIM, iLoveIM, and Mabber are some of the other startups targeting this sector.

Who is the king of IM 2.0 in terms of web traffic?

To answer this, we analyze these services using several traffic analyzers. According to Compete.com in October 2007:

1. Meebo 1.2M monthly visitors
2. eBuddy 200K visitors
3. iloveIM 28K visitors
4. koolIM 16K visitors
5. Mabber 3.4K visitors

The other major traffic trackers also yield similar results: Meebo is clearly the King of IM 2.0.

Mobile Ad Networks Heating Up & A Prediction for 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Bob) — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 07:03:00 +0000

In the last year, there has been a great deal of activity in the mobile ad network space.

The Big Two: Google and Yahoo
In September Google announced plans to ramp up a mobile version of AdSense - where mobile content publishers can include targeted ads from Google's network. And in March of this year, Yahoo announced its plans to build a mobile ad network, and that it had signed on MobiTV, Opera, and Go2 to its network.

Buying Spree
Many of the other major players have opted to buy their way into this important sector rather than building their presence organically. Recent deals include:

- Microsoft's Purchase of ScreenTonic in May
- AOL's Purchase of Third Screen Media in May
- Nokia's Purchase of Enpocket in September

Pure Play Mobile Advertisers
The activity over this past year clearly demonstrates that the big players recognize the importance of the mobile advertising market. And while there is some consolidation, the market is still in the early phases with many mobile advertising startups innovating in the sector. AdMob is one of the largest players with nearly 8 billion impressions already served today!

My prediction for the sizzling mobile ad network sector: in 2008, AdMob gets acquired (by Google or Yahoo).

"Mom and Pop" Websites will make over $2.8B in 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Bob) — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 20:32:00 +0000

From Google's latest public 10-Q in August, it reported 2.7B in AdSense revenues for the first half of 2007. That's an increase of 42% over the first half of 2006. And roughly 70% of Adsense revenues go back to the publisher - many who are "mom and pop" web publishers.

Let's assume that the majority (say 75%) of Google AdSense users are small to medium sized websites, since the large web properties either have direct deals with advertisers or a direct agreement with the ad networks that allow them to keep the majority of the revenue.

That means "mom and pop" websites will make roughly 2.84B from Google AdSense. Of course, there are over a dozen other ad networks like Yahoo's Publisher Network, AdBrite, AzoogleAds, etc. that web publishers can use to make money from their sites.

Clearly, the small and medium size websites will make over 2.84B this year.