My Trend Follower

The silver linning carries on

2011-04-21T22:37:00.000+01:00

Good night.

Silver is having an impressive move right now towards the $50 level.

Gold broke above an inverted H&S neckline and is moving to the $1600 level. This may be a major top for the next months.

My guess is that silver will follow this move on gold and will reach the $50 level sooner than one would expect last year.

A silver linning

2011-03-05T11:13:00.000+00:00

Words for what?

Silver follow up

2011-02-13T15:43:00.000+00:00

After last Silver's buy trigger in our trend follower, check out how this precious metal behave:

Short term speaking, silver is correcting from last push up (note how the bollinger band is acting here). The correction may continue during this week, so be careful and use our stop trigger at 28,76.

As you may see in the picture above, the medium term chart has a trend follow model back in buy mode. However, the negative divergence of prices with volume is not a good sign. Let's take extra care here looking for the 27,05 value as a worst case scenario stop trigger.

Best to your trading,
JAPO.

New short term trend?

2011-01-29T10:46:00.001+00:00

After the SELL signal in the beginning of 2011, Silver's move from yesterday issued a new BUY trigger in my system:

This new trigger arose after a very oversold condition and after option's expiration day. I don't know yet wether this is the confirmation for the resuming of the medium term uptrend or not. Let's play it though.

Let me show you also the medium (weekly) and long (monthly) term charts for SLV for some curious observations:

.Weekly Chart:

The weekly model is in SELL mode for the second week and its buy trigger is currently set at 28.91. This charts shows clearly that the uptrend from August/2010 is broken and that the last weeks has been in correction mode. Support for this move may rely on the middle line of the bollinger band (as it happens very often in a lot of charts).

The breakout of the 28.91 level will mark for sure the resume of the bull market in silver, so be around the corner, because this may be a very good dip buying!

.Monthly Chart:

This is all the history the SLV chart has to tell you. You can clearly see that the long term trend follower is still in buy mode. Please keep the 25.525 level close to you as a stop loss level for an eventual bear market.

This chart is a little bit scary as it shows how overbought silver is right now! Also, this month gave us a candle that broke through the upper bollinger band and ended below that line. The last time this happenned was back in 2008!!! If february's bar doesn't take SLV back to upper bollinger band line, then the storm is coming!

Silver correcting

2011-01-09T13:25:00.000+00:00

Hi,

Is silver correcting? Is silver in a new downtrend? Where is silver??

I don't know...do you know? I just don't care...my trend follower is clear about that:

The new buy trigger for SLV ETF is currently set at 29.185.

Technically, silver is in oversold state, with RSI below 30, stochastic oscillator under 20.

One bad thing happenned this week, with silver breaking down the uptrend line it's been developing after August/2010. If this marks a new downtrend or is just a minor correction, only time can tell.

Current support for this down leg is in the 27.30 price level, but I'm not sure if it works, because there are lots os still openned gaps.

Best to your trading,
JAPO.

Silver recap

2011-01-01T19:54:00.000+00:00

Good night,

First of all let me wish you all a great new year, plenty of health and, hopefully, wealth as well.

Even though I have no clear idea about the fundamentals (if any) driving the current silver market, let me show you the monthly SLV chart and do some technical analysis on it:

This chart provides us a long term watch over silver. The first thing it comes to my eyes is the long term over-bought state of silver. RSI is sitting at over 95, the stochastic oscillator is also above 90. There's still no divergence in the indicators which is why this is a very strong move. Only volume diminished a little bit in December, but this is quite normal.

This condition arose in sequence of the current strong uptrend that started back in August/2010 aroud the 18.0 level. It has been 4 months and 70% valuation on silver price since then, making us all plenty of joy.

Silver ended 2010 making a new year high (still not a new all time high, but approaching...) at 30.25 (SLV price - more or less 31 in actual silver price).

Let's see what 2011 will bring to us that are trading this market.
Nice trades!

New SLV high

2010-12-30T21:44:00.000+00:00

Good night

Silver hit today a new year high at 30.08 (SLV value). This shows that a very strong uptrend is underway, in spite of the close in red at 29.76. Let's "look at the trailer":

Trend follower trigger is at 29.18, so be careful. MACD turned into positive ground today and this is an important sign. I just don't like the close below the upper bollinger band line. Short term momentum is also a little bit overbought.

You have a nice 2011!

Keep tracking it

2010-12-29T17:14:00.001+00:00

Hi,

It's almost the end of 2010 and Silver is hot...very hot. The last short term bull move is being developed after yesterday's push up.

Technicals are pointing up and MACD is almost in positive territory. I consider this event to be very important for the next few days. It may mark a healthy bull move if goes positive; if not, it will be a failed one.

Nevertheless, I'm relying mostly on my trend following model:

The current stop trigger is at 28.58. Keep this value close to you and use it to profit with it.

Freakin' bubble

2010-12-06T20:33:00.000+00:00

Silver is starting to look like a freakin' bubble.

See for yourself the chart that doubled since February/2010:

I believe this uptrend is about to give up and correct during some time. Tomorrow may mark the next top for silver, although I don't see clear negative divergences, neither exhaustion (but still in overbought zone).

Maybe it's time to start thinking on collect from this market, before going short (with careful!).

Trend follower in sell mode

2010-11-14T14:08:00.001+00:00

This is trend following

2010-11-07T14:10:00.001+00:00

The daily trend follower is flying high and the treshold value rose last friday to 25.04, so keep it close to you, 'cause a correction may be coming. Don't forget this rule: cut your losses (in this case, protect your profits)!

Have a nice trading week.

Feels good to have a trend follower

2010-11-04T22:24:00.001+00:00

Trend following on silver means happiness :)

The SLV ETF has risen another 9.65% after the last buy trigger from last week. And this was after rising 29% after the 24th's August buy signal.

Now, the trend follower is at 24.40, so keep this number in mind, just in case...

Time to buy silver again!

2010-10-28T21:27:00.000+01:00

Hi,

SLV closed today at 29.43 and triggered a new buy signal. The new sell trigger is positioned at 22.60.

Technically speaking, the SLV chart isn't yet so good as the trend follower points. I see the stochastic near a buy cross, so care must be taken. The RSI shows no negative divergence, which is a very good thing. The MACD has also inverted its course and is now rising again.

Tomorrow will be an important day in order to see if the uptrend is back again.

Take care,
JAPO.

A glimpse on SLV

2010-10-24T13:25:00.000+01:00

SLV (silver) is currently trading in a correction mood. The prices are sitting at the midle line of the standard bollinger band and, for me, this can act as a nice support fot the correction. If it doesn't, then it will probably drop to the lower line of that bollinger band.

The trend follower is now at 23,34. You know the drill...a daily close above this value is a BUY trigger.

Here is the picture:

The weekly chart is showing some will to correct more, but let's wait first for the next week's close.

Take care,
JAPO.

And finally...a SELL trigger

2010-10-19T21:48:00.000+01:00

Today silver dropped so much that triggered a sell signal on my trend follower. Now, the new buy trigger is set at the 23.88 level.

For now, this is the so awaited correction in silver. I hope this is an healthy correction and that the uptrend will resume soon enough. We have two options here: the first is to believe that this is actually only a correction and, as such, keep the long position; the second one is to follow the system and actually sell SLV now...choose yours!

Now this is starting to look like a freakin' bubble!

2010-10-14T22:16:00.000+01:00

New SLV high today at 24.06, closed at 24.03 and trend follower at 23.16. This is huge and ugly divergences are in the chart...I'm just sticking to my trend follower and you?

Be prepared for a major sell off in the next trading sessions....I told you so!

Silver looks unstoppable

2010-10-13T22:09:00.000+01:00

Today a new all time high in SLV @23.50.
My trend follower rose to the 22.60 level.

Take care, ´cause I don't believe this will continue so overbought and with negative divergences for much longer!

SLV chart values

2010-10-12T22:09:00.000+01:00

Good night, these are the values to take into account right now:

.New SLV high today at 22.98
.Trend follower rose to 22.17, acting as a profit stop loss.

I'm also taking care with RSI negative divergence, MACD dropping and stochastic oscillator completely overbought!

Silver: Quick Update

2010-10-10T13:56:00.000+01:00

Hi,

I'm writing you all just to say that our trend follower on SLV remains on buy&hold mode. Silver did an impressive day last friday, although not trading higher than last thursday.

22.01 is still the value to watch for a sell trigger.

Silver follow up

2010-10-07T22:53:00.000+01:00

Hi,

Today silver started its so-awaited pullback. For me this is something like an A wave of an A-B-C correction.
My trend follower didn't triggered a new sell signal, but I bet tomorrow will be the day...22.01 is our value :) I don't believe it will me a major correction...just a minor one in this incredibly bullish wave structure.

Keep your eyes open!

22,69 must mean something :P

2010-10-06T21:43:00.000+01:00

Hi,

The SLV ETF ended today's session trading at 22,69...this has to mean something :P

The current chart doesn't say anything besides what I'm about to tell you:

1. Short term indicators are (really) overbought!...this is a condition that can last somedays though...
2. RSI is showing negative divergence. This means a pullback is comming soon..
3. Our trend follower stop limit was updated today to the 22.01 level, so keep this value close to you, cause will allow you to buy again at a lower price.

Do you wanna know what a wall of worries is?..

2010-10-05T21:36:00.000+01:00

...Then you should take a look at the next chart:

After silver reached new all time highs, now sky is basically the limit! But...take care, negative divergences
are appearing in the daily chart and this may lead to a correction. Luckily we have a trend follower that will
warn us when one may sell. Current trend follower SLV's stop limit value is set at 21,59. Below this value one may think about selling silver, just to have some caution. Then a new buy value will be calculated...

Have fun trading silver 'cause its hot!
Bye.

Silver flying high...but claiming for some time off

2010-09-20T22:39:00.000+01:00

Hi fellows,

Silver is currently trading very strongly after the so-called breakout above the recent symmetrical triangle.

I know a picture's worth a thousand words, but I'm really without the patience to be posting charts here...so allow me to stick with just words :)

Today the SLV closed flat at 20.29 after trading between 20.26 and 20.51. The all time high on the SLV chart is yet positioned at 20.73! We only need some miserable 0.22 points to reach that high from March 2008. My guess is that this will be a tough battle for bulls, because after today's close we may see a sell signal for some profits booking. My trend follower will trigger a sell at 20.02 so be prepared for that...

From a medium term look, silver may trade higher for quite some time...right now the technicals "smell" really good for bulls :)

Silver and EUR/USD

2010-09-12T14:13:00.000+01:00

Hi fellows. Long time no see!

In the last few months I haven't been in the mood for blogging, but now I hope I'm back for good :)
Let's start with silver chart (as usual through the SLV ETF) and then comment the EUR/USD. This last one is very important for SLV traders from Europe, because its action can leverage or f*** our trades.

From 13th May's top silver started some kind of triangle pattern that lasted until the 24th of August. From then to now, silver (slv) broke on the upside and reached a new year high. In this week we were presented with a topping action that may lead to a slight correction of this last move.

Who thinks silver is safe now, think twice! There's a gap from 18.09 to 18.29 in the SLV chart and this tells me that more downside will come.

For the short term, I'm betting in a correction to the 18.94 line and then more upside may come (something like a 3-of-3 :P).

The EUR/USD is currently trading lower, but I see too many bears here that I'm waiting for more upside. This is bad for us, but I really think it will happen. Then we'll see if the downtrend will resume or if a new uptrend is right here.

Bye,
JAPO.

Silver: Is anyone telling me what the f$%# is happening here????

2010-06-07T22:29:00.000+01:00

Ok guys...silver is currently in a downtrending mood...today I just won't analise this chart...I refuse to do so!!!

I will give a prize to anyone here disclosing what in the world silver is doing right now. I just gave up trying to understand. Hopefully, my follower will kick silver's ass!

Trade safely,
JAPO.