n + 2 = Brian Curtis blogging about what comes next after what comes next

Monday 20 February 2012

2012-02-20T16:41:00.000+01:00

This article makes the point that BSkyB's move to disrupt itself is 'brilliant'. And while it's true that it is better to cannibalize yourself rather than let someone else do it, I would argue that there are times when 'old media' companies are too tempted to start dining on their own flesh before the 'new media' cannibals have even started sharpening their knives. Having been in this situation myself, my take on it is that this trend is often motivated by the personal insecurities of old-media company executives.

Faced with the fear that their products aren't as cool as those of the smaller upstarts, or that their businesses are not as nimble, old-media execs panic -- and start destroying shareholder value by lowering prices, giving stuff away for free, or even shuttering once-profitable ventures before the competition even stiffens. As the article claims, they start swapping pounds for pennies in an effort not to be left behind. But my contention is that many old-media execs overcorrect in the face of potentially disruptive competition. Scarred by the numerous examples of 90s-era media companies that didn't react fast enough to the internet, many are now opting for selective self-amputation rather than facing the danger of complete extinction. But time will only tell whether BSkyB tossed its severed limb into the cookpot earlier than they needed to...

BSkyB's internet TV plan is brilliant, a rare example of perfect timing

Friday 17 February 2012

2012-02-17T16:30:00.000+01:00

Two recent (and related) pieces caught my eye the other day. They both touch on the ability of firms to tap into customers' online and offline behavior, and turn that data into actionable intelligence about people's tastes, consumption patterns, future earning potential, and even -- in the Target example -- reproductive status.
A Guide to the Digital Advertising Industry That's Watching Your Every Click
How Target Figured Out A Teen Girl Was Pregnant Before Her Father Did

Thursday 16 February 2012

2012-02-16T22:57:00.000+01:00

It's always better to work for a successful company that is growing than one whose best days are behind it. It's even better to know that you're contributing to the success:
Comcast surges on reduced subscriber losses; posts best quarter in 5 years

And on a related note, it's always exciting to see yourself quoted in print, even if the quote isn't entirely accurate:
Comcast to market 'X1' next generation digital TV service to homes

Monday 6 February 2012

2012-02-06T18:56:00.001+01:00

Interesting development, especially considering the recent announcement of a joint marketing agreement between Comcast and Verizon Wireless:

Redbox Partners With Verizon To Launch Streaming Video Service

Saturday 28 January 2012

2012-01-28T20:23:00.000+01:00

Cool article on a cool project at the NYTimes beta620 lab:
Meet Deep Dive, the New York Times’ experimental context engine and story explorer

Funny what you can learn on the interwebs:
Comcast reveals social TV strategy that rewards subscribers in patent application Read more: Comcast reveals social TV strategy that rewards subscribers in patent application

Wednesday 11 January 2012

2012-01-11T19:55:00.000+01:00

Happy 2012. Two new pieces, coinciding with CES. No further comment:
How People Watch TV Online And Off
Myspace — Yes, Myspace — Says It’s Going to Sell You Web TV

Monday 28 November 2011

2011-11-28T17:51:00.000+01:00

I've just now gotten around to reading this piece from Fast Company in late October. It's a pretty good precis on how things are shaping up for Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google:
The Great Tech War Of 2012

There's even an update meta-story that was published 30 days later:
The Great Tech War Of 2012: Ongoing Skirmishes

Tuesday 22 November 2011

2011-11-22T16:17:00.000+01:00

A few acquisitions and announcements from some small video search and recommendations players, all for around the same pricetag:
Synacor Guns for $75M IPO
Al Gore-backed VideoSurf bought by Microsoft for $70 million
Ebay’s Got A Hunch, For Around $80 Million

This last one is interesting, especially given Ebay's new 'couch commerce' Watch With Ebay app. Soon you may actually be able to buy Rachel's sweater after all.

Friday 18 November 2011

2011-11-18T15:41:00.000+01:00

Two new stories of hardware manufacturers looking to disintermediate content distributors by doing deals to connect broadcasters directly with consumers. It's not that they're trying to eliminate the middleman; they are trying to become the middleman.

Friday 28 October 2011

2011-10-28T17:09:00.001+02:00

A few interesting snippets on 1) interactive and targeted TV advertising, 2) Facebook's role in the TV ecosystem, and 3) Apple's plans to upset the television applecart.

Interactive Ads: Cable’s Future May Already Have Passed
Can Facebook Improve TV Ads?
Blockbuster to offer VOD on Facebook
What’s Really Next for Apple in Television

Also this late-breaking piece:
Google Tries Again With Google TV

Thursday 27 October 2011

2011-10-27T21:46:00.000+02:00

Facial monitoring: The all-telling eye
A piece in the Economist explains how webcams can now spot which ads catch your gaze, read your mood, and check your vital signs. In my last job, I tried to get a POC off the ground to do this with digital out-of-home billboards, but I honestly never thought of doing it with front-facing cameras on people's PCs, iPhones, and tablets. Seems like an interesting concept, provided you can get over the privacy implications.

Thursday 20 October 2011

2011-10-20T19:52:00.000+02:00

Facebook Charges into the TV Arena

Interesting piece on the overtures that Facebook are currently making to various players in the TV industry. Contrasting their approach with the 'ham-fisted' sales pitch delivered by Google for their GoogleTV project, this article goes on to explain how Facebook is pitching to be the default login service for broadcast and cable TV, as well as IPTV and next-gen video services. But of course the TV industry is a large and powerful body, and might not look favorably on the prospect of another internet company trying to encroach on their (valuable) turf.

The Default Choice, So Hard to Resist

Confirming what Internet Explorer and Google Search product managers have known all along, this article highlights research that shows how sticky being the default option can be. If a user has to opt out of using IE on Windows machines, or using Google as the search engine on their iPhone's Safari browser bar, the chances of them doing so are slim. The stickiness of being the default option is another reason why Facebook wants the TV industry to use Facebook IDs as a universal login mechanism (see above).

How Bit.ly Now Predicts the Future

This one falls into the why-didn't-I-think-of-that category. If bit.ly is the default URL shortener of the web, that means that they have a pretty good idea of what sites/pages/topics are popular. If they can use this view of past popularity to predict future popularity, that's a pretty powerful proposition (no alliteration intended).

Australia Dominates iPad Newspaper Rankings

This one falls into the I-don't-buy-it category. Apparently, Australian newspapers have four of the top ten newspaper apps on the iPad. For a country with a population of little over 20 million people to have even one app in the top ten would be impressive. But four I find hard to believe.

Friday 30 September 2011

2011-09-30T23:03:00.000+02:00

First up, a couple of pieces about my industry. The first is a story about Liberty Global's groundbreaking new STB for its European cable operations. The second is perhaps proof that rumors of cable TV's demise are slightly exagerrated.

The third is about how a major internet player is attempting to disrupt the TV industry. The fourth is about how two major pay TV providers are working with a major software company to disrupt themselves.

Next, on to a good discussion of how well positioned Amazon is to do big things in the tablet space, as well as rumors of some possible developments between Amazon and Palm. Given that Google, Apple, and Amazon are all competing for the same customers, it would make good sense for Amazon to decrease their reliance on the Android OS.

Finally, some interesting speculation about how Groupon is going to get into the loyalty/rewards business on behalf of local businesses. This is something that I always thought that Yellow Pages companies should have done, but nobody would listen to me back when I worked at a YP company. One of the prime drivers behind this move would be the value of the consumption data that Groupon could harvest on how consumers behave offline.

And speaking of data, here is a piece about a great UN initiative promoting data philanthropy: Data Philanthropy is Good for Business

Monday 29 August 2011

2011-08-29T22:52:00.000+02:00

A couple of interesting pieces here about Wal-Mart's attempts to be nimble in the digital media space, largely through the acquisition of smaller start-ups. It's probably safe to say that Wal-Mart has more MBAs working for them than any other company, so it will be interesting to see whether the brains behind the big box stores can successfully steer the mothership as though it were maneuverable powerboat. Many other large companies have tried and failed.

And speaking of social media and streaming video, it's interesting to see Flipboard - more known as a social media / news aggregator app for the iPad - go after the online TV/movie market.

Monday 15 August 2011

2011-08-15T20:56:00.000+02:00

Of course, everybody is blogging/tweeting/reporting on Google's acquisition of Motorola Mobility, and mostly talking about the potential impacts on the mobile and patent landscape. But one facet of the deal that isn't getting widely discussed is how it will affect the cable TV and video industries. As these two postings report, Google is now a major supplier to every US cable company, having assumed the set-top box business of Motorola (worth close to $1B in annual revenues).

Friday 29 July 2011

2011-07-29T16:21:00.000+02:00

Good ol' Nieman Journalism Lab, insightful as ever. This time they tackle the issue of transitioning customers from physical media to digital media, drawing parallels between Netflix's recent price hike and the fate of news and other publishing businesses who have yet to make such a move:
"The newsonomics of Netflix and the digital shift"

Wednesday 27 July 2011

2011-07-27T14:39:00.000+02:00

Interesting companion piece to Spotify's US launch. Reading this, I can't help but wonder how well the Spotify model could be applied to video as well as music:
Daniel Ek’s Spotify: Music’s Last Best Hope

Friday 15 July 2011

2011-07-15T21:57:00.000+02:00

Just a quick update to the last post, particularly Eli Pariser's... It turns out that Yahoo! are trying to revive themselves by extending individuals' filter bubbles across the internet:
Yahoo Prepares New Web Ad Push

Wednesday 13 July 2011

2011-07-13T19:02:00.000+02:00

A couple interesting pieces that have caught my eye lately, both highly relevant to my current job...

Groundhog Decade: Hollywood is about to repeat the catastrophic mistakes of the music industry

Remember how badly the music industry reacted to Napster? Is the TV/film industry doing the same thing today?

Seven Things Human Editors Do that Algorithms Don't (Yet)

Interesting to see the HBR jump on the filter bubble bandwagon.

Wednesday 29 June 2011

2011-06-29T18:57:00.001+02:00

I like the Nieman Journalism Lab. As could be expected from a site focused on quality journalism, their stories are usually insightful and well researched. Here are a couple of interesting ones that I've seen recently:

Google plans for “the second phase of the display ad revolution” with a focus on smartphones and tablets
This story details Google's plans to develop a one-stop-shop, where online advertisers and publishers can go to manage campaigns etc. It cites first-hand sources within Google and lays a good foundation for those new to the field of internet advertising. But what it fails to do is examine Google's display ad plans in the context of what Google says the company is all about. In short, how does their display ad revolution measure up to their philosophy?

"Focus on the user and all else will follow": It seems that these plans all revolve around focusing on the advertiser and the publisher. The user, where she exists at all, is an afterthought. The final line of the story does quote a Google exec as hoping that these new mobile ad formats can 'delight users', but it's safe to say that the focus of this initiative is on making money, and that user delight is a possible (though unlikely) side effect.
"It’s best to do one thing really, really well": Google's core is in search - and search advertising. It's been said before by many others, but their expansion into TV, mobile operating systems, music, etc. does not jibe well with doing one thing really well. Perhaps if the 'one thing' were to organize all the world's information, many of the above examples could fit into that mission. But the purpose of display advertising has long ceased being about informing people.
"Fast is better than slow": Sure. Why not?
"Democracy on the web works": In fact, this point is almost completely in direct opposition to their main philosophy. Democracy (at least in terms of the exchange of information) relies on abundance. The more access to information - and the more meta-conversations about that access and information - the better for democracy and for Google's search systems. Display advertising, however, hinges on scarcity. Publishing networks do not have infinite inventory for ad space, and advertisers must compete for the attention of a limited set of eyeballs. All of which is to say that Google's display advertising business works best when they are able to harness this scarcity, and charge a premium for helping advertisers solve the scarcity problem.
"You don’t need to be at your desk to need an answer": Nor indeed do you need to be at your desk to view an ad. This maxim is in complete alignment with their plans.
"You can make money without doing evil": Ask anybody. Almost nobody likes ads, except during the Superbowl. People put up with Google's search ads because they are unobtrusive and relevant to the context in which people are searching. Search ads and search results are both part of the content of a results page. But display ads are another story. They compete against the content of the pages on which they appear. They may not be evil, but most people would rather have their news article, game, TV show, etc. without them.
"There’s always more information out there": True.
"The need for information crosses all borders": Also true.
"You can be serious without a suit": Couldn't agree more, but have you ever seen an ad sales guy who wasn't wearing a suit?
"Great just isn’t good enough": Google definitely has a great search engine that needs to continually get better. And I think that Google can also be great at selling and serving display ads, but the questions is whether that greatness is for the benefit of Google shareholders, advertisers, publishers, or the guy who just wants to reads an article on his mobile phone while they wait for the bus. The Nieman Journalism Lab would have done well to ponder the same question.

And speaking of killing time, this other article cites some very interesting statistics:
I have found the cognitive surplus, and it hates pigs

It turns out that Americans watched enough TV last year (200 billion hours) to have written 2000 wikipedias. As someone who a) has previously worked in encyclopedia production, and b) now works in television, one of the learnings that I can take away from this piece is that I have clearly gone to where the audiences are.

Monday 20 June 2011

2011-06-20T17:06:00.000+02:00

Fresh off a week at the annual NCTA Cable Show and the Digital Media Conference, there has been a lot to report on in the world of television and video. Perhaps the biggest announcements coming out of the Cable Show were related to Comcast's plans to move content search and discovery out of the STB and into the cloud:
Did the cloud just kill the set-top box?
Comcast testing new social TV experience with Facebook

And despite the fact that cable execs and their Netflix counterparts continue to insist publicly that they offer complementary services, this piece begs to differ.

Friday 10 June 2011

2011-06-10T15:07:00.000+02:00

I really dig a couple of quotes from this piece on Jeff Bezos's response to a question at Amazon's most recent shareholder meeting:
"If you invent frequently and are willing to fail, then you never get to that point where you really need to bet the whole company."
"We are stubborn on vision. We are flexible on details."
"On the day you decide to give up on [an innovative new business idea], what happens? Your operating margins go up because you stopped investing in something that wasn’t working. Is that really such a bad day?"
From Jeff Bezos on innovation: Amazon ‘willing to be misunderstood for long periods of time’

Wednesday 8 June 2011

2011-06-08T15:51:00.000+02:00

In a previous role, I used to spend a bunch of time trying to pay attention to where various companies fit into the digital media and advertising landscape. Now a consulting firm has done all the hard work for us, and even documented their findings in handy (and freely downloadable) charts. WSJ has the story...
Online Ads: Where 1,240 Companies Fit In

Tuesday 31 May 2011

2011-05-31T19:58:00.000+02:00

Interesting piece on how Facebook wants to own the media space, not necessarily by owning the content or distribution, but by inserting its users and their friends between the content producers and the distribution partners:

Facebook Is Developing Ways to Share Media

Wednesday 4 May 2011

2011-05-04T20:06:00.000+02:00

A piece detailing what comes after personalization and behavioral targeting: Predicting how individuals will respond to any given call to action.
Welcome to the Brave New World of Persuasion Profiling

A piece on how PBS has tried to make their vast video content back catalog more search friendly. The solution? Get a robot to watch and transcribe their entire library, with accuracy that is at least good enough for search indexing.
PBS plays Google’s word game, transcribing thousands of hours of video into crawler-friendly text

Nielsen released the results of a recent survey on TV ownership in America, which shows a 2% decline since last year. Digging into the report doesn't do much to settle the score on whether or not cord-cutting is a significant phenomenon.
Maybe It’s Not Cord-Cutting, But Cord-Nevers: TV Ownership Drops
(Plus a shameless plug: I'll be speaking on a panel dedicated to cord cutting at the upcoming Digital Media East conference in Washington DC.)