n + 2 = Brian Curtis blogging about what comes next after what comes next

Friday 29 March 2013

2013-03-29T21:58:00.002+01:00

I had this idea a while ago, but maybe now it will actually come to fruition:
Hulu + Spotify = Two great tastes that taste great together

Spotify Plans To Take On Netflix And HBO With Streaming Video Service
Hulu in Talks With Potential Buyers

Thursday 21 March 2013

2013-03-21T21:25:00.001+01:00

A couple of pieces on the demise of old-TV ways of doing things...

Nielsen is Dead
In this Wired article, the longevity of the venerable ratings agency is called into question, as new technologies allow for the possibility of more accurate and precise viewership data.

How Verizon Could Make TV Entrepreneurial Again
The WSJ reports on an initiative by Verizon (and Cablevision) to tackle two problems at once:

Unbundle content from providers, thereby breaking the stanglehold many powerful networks currently seem to have on the industry.
Change the way that viewership is calculated, ratings are associated with viewership (and ad rates), and content providers are paid.

Wednesday 6 February 2013

2013-02-06T22:10:00.001+01:00

Here's a useful primer on the complexities of the TV industry:
http://www.kitd.com/2013/01/7168/

In other news, Twitter buys Bluefin Labs, making TV both more social and measurable:
http://blog.twitter.com/2013/02/Welcome-Bluefin-Labs.html

Which is pretty hot on the heels of Twitter's tie-up with Nielsen to reinvent TV audience measurement:
http://blog.twitter.com/2012/12/coming-soon-nielsen-twitter-tv-rating.html

Who themselves recently bought Bluefin competitor SocialGuide:
http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/press-room/2012/nielsen-nm-incite-acquire-socialguide.html

Thursday 6 December 2012

2012-12-06T15:00:00.002+01:00

I enjoyed this piece in the Atlantic about some of the myths of what contributes to inflating an average customer's cable bill:
If You Don't Watch Sports, TV Is a Huge Rip-Off (So, How Do We Fix It?)

Oh yeah, and this one from the NYT is not too shabby either:
The ‘Mad Men’ Economic Miracle

And I suppose this on is related:
How Netflix wants to change television forever

Saturday 24 November 2012

2012-11-24T17:06:00.002+01:00

The Verge, a website I don't think I've ever visited before, has been running a well-written series on the future of television. Two of the better articles I've read so far are below:
Former FCC Chairman Michael Powell: 'Cable companies are at the mercy of content companies'
Cutting the cord UK-style: can the Brits succeed where the US has failed?

Speaking of the future of television, I was a panelist at the recent Future of TV conference in New York. A video of the panel should be online at some point.

Thursday 27 September 2012

2012-09-27T16:59:00.000+02:00

An intriguing, informed, and insightful article from WSJ.com on why Apple isn't necessarily going to do to the TV industry what it did to the music and mobile industries...

TV Will Be Apple's Undoing: To maintain its leadership, the company must give up control.

Tuesday 18 September 2012

2012-09-18T14:46:00.002+02:00

Long time, no post. That's partly because it's been summer, partly because I've been busy, and partly because I've been lazy. Also, for the past week, I was at the Recommender Systems conference in Dublin, Ireland. This was my first time at the conference, and I found it to mostly valuable for industrial and academic researchers - not product folks like myself. That said, I did meet some interesting folks, and saw some good presentations during the industry track. Two good recaps are here and here.

Other than that, there have been a few tidbits on the interwebs that have caught my eye recently...

Speaking of recommender systems above, this piece talks a little about the process that underpins the metadata which drives your "witty romantic comedies for dudes" recommendations on Netflix:
Cadre of film buffs helps Netflix viewers sort through the clutter
Their reliance on both people and algorithms is just proof that entertainment is creative human process, not only in its creation, but also in its subsequent discovery. This next piece gets into why people are shifting toward TV viewing rather than going to the movies, arguing that movies are no longer made by creative people, but by committees, based on complex models of what has been successful in the past:
The Main Reason TV Is Now Better Than Movies

While we're on the subject of TV, this new report suggests that good old-fashioned channel surfing is still people's primary mode of consumption:
Live Viewing Still Overwhelmingly Dominates TV
But there are still plenty of pundits who suggest this evidence doesn't necessarily reflect the reality that the pay-TV industry is crumbling. This piece mounts the argument that cable TV as we know it is dead; I'll let you decide for yourself whether you agree:
Cable’s Walls Are Coming Down
Either way, it's impossible to ignore that there are lots of companies out there trying to disrupt the existing TV ecosystem. According to this rumor, one of the big players in disrupting the music industry now has its sights set on TV as well:
Spotify for TV – could it finally be true?

And finally, you may have heard about a new phone that was announced recently. Fanboys and pre-orders aside, I enjoyed this very forward-looking piece in the Atlantic on what the "phone" will look like ten years hence:
iPhone 5? Yawn. What Will the 'Phone' of 2022 Look Like?

Wednesday 11 July 2012

2012-07-12T00:23:00.001+02:00

This is a good question:
Is there really a market for cross-platform recommendation engines?
Here's the answer:
If pay TV operators do a good enough job of aggregating content and making it discoverable in the ways that consumers want, there won't be a very big market for cross-platform recommendation engines.

Speaking of recommendations engines, this is an interesting look into what went wrong as Netflix tried to pivot last year:
Netflix's lost year: The inside story of the price-hike train wreck

Tuesday 3 July 2012

2012-07-03T16:42:00.002+02:00

In a former life, I tried to make QR codes happen. I was wrong; please forgive me.

QR Code Fatigue

Monday 4 June 2012

2012-06-04T15:45:00.000+02:00

This article may be full of overgeneralizations and conclusions based on incomplete data, but the main message is pretty clear: The TV business as we know it is not immune from the broad industry, cultural, and technological changes happening all around us -- and there is a lesson to be learned from what happened to previous industries (like print newspapers) in the past few decades.

The trick for companies inside the TV industry now is figuring out how to cope with and/or take advantage of these changes, while simultaneously doing what's best for consumers without destroying shareholder value. If the incumbents in the TV business can't do this, there are plenty of would-be players on the sidelines who'd be happy to disrupt the industry and take some of that value for themselves.

Monday 30 April 2012

2012-04-30T15:05:00.003+02:00

For some reason, Wired will always remind me of internet journalism from the mid-1990s. But this week there are several interesting articles on wired.com that (to me at least) demonstrates that they are still capable of new and original writing...
First is a piece on a small start-up that I've been tracking for a few months: Can an Algorithm Write a Better News Story Than a Human Reporter?
This one is a bit of a primer for laypeople on the practice of multivariate testing: The A/B Test: Inside the Technology That’s Changing the Rules of Business
And also, one nearer and dearer to my own heard -- or at least my present position: Be Very Afraid: The Cable-ization of Online Life Is Upon Us

As a consumer, I have a strong interest in issues of net neutrality. But as an employee of a company that creates and distributes content, I also have an interest in exploring exactly what net neutrality is. To wit, please consider this net neutrality thought experiment:

In this hypothetical world, car companies and oil companies are vertically integrated. Ford not only sells cars, but gasoline as well. But there are also independent oil companies who sell their own gas. Gasoline is a commodity, and any car made by any car company can run on any gas from any oil company. Ford tries to differentiate itself by offering Ford drivers free Ford gas. Ford drivers have the option of driving their cars with free Ford gas, or of paying for gas from an independent gas station. Except where Ford gas stations are not available, most Ford drivers take advantage of this free-gas offer.

Is this a violation of gas neutrality?

How about if Ford built their cars such that they could drive faster when used with Ford gas? What if Ford designed their cars such that they would perform worse when used with gas from an independent oil company?

Monday 2 April 2012

2012-04-02T16:35:00.003+02:00

A couple of good articles on the business of TV and the future of said business. The first one is a bit of an apologia for the cable industry from Wired:
The Nimble Empire: In Defense of Cable

The next one features a discussion of the work of yours truly:
Clicking through the wild west of video-on-demand

Wednesday 28 March 2012

2012-03-28T18:08:00.002+02:00

As if I ever had any doubts that getting out of the Yellow Pages business was a good idea:
Are Yellow Pages Toast? Four Years Later We Review Ad Value

Just to pat my own back, my timing for fleeing that particular sinking ship was impeccable. But as for whether my new ship is sailing toward an iceberg, there are lots of interesting developments happening every day. But so far none of these signs so far seem to augur certain doom or certain success. This piece is just another example of how the competitive landscape for TV is ever shifting:
Xbox Live Adds HBO Go, Comcast VOD

Monday 5 March 2012

2012-03-05T15:54:00.000+01:00

Seems like the media can't quite make up its mind about Netflix. Either the company is getting into bed with cable MSOs, or it is about to be "crushed" by the likes of Comcast. Regardless, there is one thing that everyone does seem to agree on: Apple is going to remake the TV industry in its own image. And in the process, the computer company from Cupertino is going to "embarrass hardware makers, stiff content providers, destroy cable companies."

While I think it's true that Apple does have a strong motivation to disrupt television as we know it -- and customers have been demanding TV that costs less and doesn't suck quite so much -- I also think that Apple will find the TV industry less disruptable than the music industry that they first tackled in the early 2000s. There are a lot of powerful vested interests in TV that will fight back hard when threatened, and in general, the end-to-end value chain of getting content to consumers is much more complex for TV than for music, with a lot more players along the way who won't want to be squeezed out.

Thursday 1 March 2012

2012-03-01T17:02:00.000+01:00

Hot on the heels of revelations that Google+ is a virtual ghost town, here's a new report claiming that there are less than 1M Google TV devices in use. It seems like Google has been trying to pivot for the past 5+ years, with few successful examples of gaining widespread traction outside of its core search and advertising products. Can anyone say Innovator's Dilemma?

Monday 20 February 2012

2012-02-20T16:41:00.000+01:00

This article makes the point that BSkyB's move to disrupt itself is 'brilliant'. And while it's true that it is better to cannibalize yourself rather than let someone else do it, I would argue that there are times when 'old media' companies are too tempted to start dining on their own flesh before the 'new media' cannibals have even started sharpening their knives. Having been in this situation myself, my take on it is that this trend is often motivated by the personal insecurities of old-media company executives.

Faced with the fear that their products aren't as cool as those of the smaller upstarts, or that their businesses are not as nimble, old-media execs panic -- and start destroying shareholder value by lowering prices, giving stuff away for free, or even shuttering once-profitable ventures before the competition even stiffens. As the article claims, they start swapping pounds for pennies in an effort not to be left behind. But my contention is that many old-media execs overcorrect in the face of potentially disruptive competition. Scarred by the numerous examples of 90s-era media companies that didn't react fast enough to the internet, many are now opting for selective self-amputation rather than facing the danger of complete extinction. But time will only tell whether BSkyB tossed its severed limb into the cookpot earlier than they needed to...

BSkyB's internet TV plan is brilliant, a rare example of perfect timing

Friday 17 February 2012

2012-02-17T16:30:00.000+01:00

Two recent (and related) pieces caught my eye the other day. They both touch on the ability of firms to tap into customers' online and offline behavior, and turn that data into actionable intelligence about people's tastes, consumption patterns, future earning potential, and even -- in the Target example -- reproductive status.
A Guide to the Digital Advertising Industry That's Watching Your Every Click
How Target Figured Out A Teen Girl Was Pregnant Before Her Father Did

Thursday 16 February 2012

2012-02-16T22:57:00.000+01:00

It's always better to work for a successful company that is growing than one whose best days are behind it. It's even better to know that you're contributing to the success:
Comcast surges on reduced subscriber losses; posts best quarter in 5 years

And on a related note, it's always exciting to see yourself quoted in print, even if the quote isn't entirely accurate:
Comcast to market 'X1' next generation digital TV service to homes

Monday 6 February 2012

2012-02-06T18:56:00.001+01:00

Interesting development, especially considering the recent announcement of a joint marketing agreement between Comcast and Verizon Wireless:

Redbox Partners With Verizon To Launch Streaming Video Service

Saturday 28 January 2012

2012-01-28T20:23:00.000+01:00

Cool article on a cool project at the NYTimes beta620 lab:
Meet Deep Dive, the New York Times’ experimental context engine and story explorer

Funny what you can learn on the interwebs:
Comcast reveals social TV strategy that rewards subscribers in patent application Read more: Comcast reveals social TV strategy that rewards subscribers in patent application

Wednesday 11 January 2012

2012-01-11T19:55:00.000+01:00

Happy 2012. Two new pieces, coinciding with CES. No further comment:
How People Watch TV Online And Off
Myspace — Yes, Myspace — Says It’s Going to Sell You Web TV

Monday 28 November 2011

2011-11-28T17:51:00.000+01:00

I've just now gotten around to reading this piece from Fast Company in late October. It's a pretty good precis on how things are shaping up for Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google:
The Great Tech War Of 2012

There's even an update meta-story that was published 30 days later:
The Great Tech War Of 2012: Ongoing Skirmishes

Tuesday 22 November 2011

2011-11-22T16:17:00.000+01:00

A few acquisitions and announcements from some small video search and recommendations players, all for around the same pricetag:
Synacor Guns for $75M IPO
Al Gore-backed VideoSurf bought by Microsoft for $70 million
Ebay’s Got A Hunch, For Around $80 Million

This last one is interesting, especially given Ebay's new 'couch commerce' Watch With Ebay app. Soon you may actually be able to buy Rachel's sweater after all.

Friday 18 November 2011

2011-11-18T15:41:00.000+01:00

Two new stories of hardware manufacturers looking to disintermediate content distributors by doing deals to connect broadcasters directly with consumers. It's not that they're trying to eliminate the middleman; they are trying to become the middleman.

Friday 28 October 2011

2011-10-28T17:09:00.001+02:00

A few interesting snippets on 1) interactive and targeted TV advertising, 2) Facebook's role in the TV ecosystem, and 3) Apple's plans to upset the television applecart.

Interactive Ads: Cable’s Future May Already Have Passed
Can Facebook Improve TV Ads?
Blockbuster to offer VOD on Facebook
What’s Really Next for Apple in Television

Also this late-breaking piece:
Google Tries Again With Google TV