Past Editions: Nikola Pekovic | Timofey Mozgov | Tiago Splitter | Pooh Jeter

The Chicago Bulls have held Omer Asik’s rights since the 2008 NBA Draft.  Asik was originally taken with the 36th overall pick by the Portland Trailblazers, but his rights were immediately traded to the Bulls.  Now at 24, the Chicago Bulls have finally signed the 6′11″ 230 pound (according to DraftExpress.com) Asik to a 2 year deal at about $1.7 million per year (according to the salary listed on ESPN’s trade machine).

In my opinion, Asik isn’t as NBA-ready as Pekovic, Mozgov, or Splitter but he does have some skills that could help in year one, and if he is developed properly he could become a productive member of the Bulls in year two.

Note:  In the clip, Asik is playing for Fenerbahçe Ülker and is #24 in white.

Strengths

Runs The Floor/Finds Open Spaces In Transition

Omer Asik isn’t overly athletic (even by a center’s standards), and he isn’t going to run by anyone, but Asik still is pretty good in transition.  The reason is because he seems to understand floor spacing really well, and he knows what to do when running up and down the court:

Here, Asik gets his defender on his back when running out, and once he gets that position, he doesn’t have to create separation with his man. Asik understands that, and once he gets to the lane he pauses, keeping his defender on his back, and allowing for the middle of the lane to open up. He then makes the catch and finishes.

Most centers are taught when running down the court to run straight into the paint (Asik does this very well).  However, there are two guys in the paint as Asik heads down the court, so he finds the open space behind the defense and makes himself available for the pass.

Speaking of putting your head down and running right into the paint, that is exactly what Omer Asik does here once he realizes the rebound is secure.  Despite being open, he doesn’t get the pass, but you can see how he does a good job of running right into the paint and finding the open space.

Pick And Roll

Omer Asik seems to do pretty well in the pick and roll offense, and while the defense played against it is pretty awful, Asik still shows some of the skills (like finding the open spaces when rolling) that could make him a successful pick and roll player in the NBA:

Again, the pick and roll defense here is atrocious, but what you need to look for is Asik’s timing on the roll, and in my opinion, Asik has a good knowledge when to start his roll.  In the first clip, he sees that his man has committed to show too early and there is no help underneath and Asik simply slips the screen and rolls to the basket untouched.  He makes the catch and finishes.

In the second clip, Asik hangs in to the set the screen, gets away from the contact, and rolls to the rim getting the finish at the rim.  What I like about this clip is that even though Asik turns the wrong way on the roll, the fact that he gets away from the contact allows him to get a quick roll to the basket.

Quick Post Moves

As you can see, Omer Asik isn’t the biggest center you will see.  The result is that he isn’t a guy who is going to get the ball in the post and take a few dribbles backing his man down.  He simply isn’t strong enough to do that, and he knows it, however Asik is able to excel in the post by making quick moves in the post.

Here, Asik makes the catch in the post, and after a brief hesitation to make sure there is no double team coming, he performs a quick spin move, catching his defender off guard.  After one dribble, Asik finishes with a dunk.  Asik isn’t strong enough to back down anyone, so his post game is predicated on catching defenders off guard, and using that to get to the rim.

Here, Asik does it again.  After making the catch and allowing the double team to clear, he takes one dribble towards the middle, indicating he might go with a hook over his right shoulder.  However, he quickly changes directions with a spin and goes up over his left shoulder.  The defender is caught off guard and he draws a foul.

And finally here, Asik makes the catch in pretty good position.  He takes one dribble and goes right up, knowing that if he waits to long, his defender will push him away from the rim.  He doesn’t hit the shot, but he does draw another foul.

Weaknesses

He’s Weak

At 6′11″ and 230 pounds, Omer Asik looks pretty weak out on the court, and that is when comparing him to other players in the Turkish League.  Put him in the NBA right now, and he will be tossed around like a rag doll.  Asik makes up for his lack of strength by doing some things differently than most centers (quick moves in the post for example), however, there are times on the court where Asik can’t really hide his lack of strength:

One of those times is when rebounding.  Asik’s size will allow him to get his hands on a number of balls coming off the rim, however it won’t help him when pulling down the rebound.  Here, Asik gets his hands to the ball first, but he simply gets it ripped out of his hands.

Asik’s lack of strength also hurts him when getting in position to grab a rebound.  Here, when the shot goes up, Asik is in pretty good rebounding position, however he lets a guard (A GUARD!) come down and push him under the basket where he has no chance to grab the rebound.

I showed you how Asik is good working off the ball when finding open space on the court.  However, when he tries to move through a crowed lane, his lack of strength really hurts him.  Here, Asik is just rolling to a rim when he runs into a defender.  Does the defender throw his arms out a bit?  Sure.  Enough that it should put a 6′11″ center flat on his back?  No way.  This is the type of contact that is common in the lane in the NBA.

Help Defense

Omer Asik also seems to struggle when playing help defense.  With his long wing span and his ability to move decent enough, you would think that he is a good enough help defender to get by, but he has a few bad habits that prevent this from happening.  The first is that he tends to get too flat footed:

When you are flat footed, it means you aren’t in a good athletic position, so even when you make the right decision in terms of when to come over and help, it takes you too long to react.  This gets exaggerated for big men, because they are so long that it is hard to go from a stand still to moving and helping on defense.

Conclusion

Out of all the overseas prospects I have scouting for my posts this week, Omer Asik will probably have lowest amount of production this year.  His body simply isn’t ready for the NBA game.  That doesn’t mean I think he will be a bust or that I think the Bulls made a poor decision bringing him over now.  It’s actually the opposite.

I think the Bulls made a very smart decision bringing Asik over this year.  It is obvious that he won’t be challenged in the Turkish League, and if a player doesn’t get challenged they don’t improve.  While he isn’t going to get many minutes, he will be competing against guys like Carlos Boozer every day in practice (or guys trying to make the pros in the D-League) and that will make him better.  In addition to that, he will be working under a NBA-quality strength and conditioning program and that will make him stronger.  If he can get stronger with his skill-set, that already makes him better (even before he starts adding to his game).

So while you may not see much from Omer Asik this year, I think he will be a big man to watch two years from now.

Past Editions: Nikola Pekovic | Timofey Mozgov | Tiago Splitter

After coming out of Portland and playing one season in the D-League, Pooh Jeter headed to Europe.  After three seasons overseas (the final stretch was a 22 game stint with Hapoel Jerusalem) and numerous Summer League invites, the 5′11″ Jeter has finally got himself a NBA contract.

For this scouting report, I am looking at Jeter’s games overseas.  The reason I prefer to use this rather than his Summer League performance because I think it will give us a better look into his game.  With Hapoel Jerusalem, Jeter was playing with guys who he was comfortable with, rather than a group of guys assembled almost at random with each trying to prove themselves.

Note:  Jeter wears #15 for Hapoel Jerusalem.  Their colors are red and white.

Strengths

Ball Pressure

Pooh Jeter is small and quick, and this makes for the perfect on ball defender in my opinion.  He is able to get low and disrupt a point guard’s dribble and his speed allows for him to force the ballhandler to change directions a number of times:

Here, Jeter’s speed and ability to stay in front of his man forces him to change directions twice.  The second time, the ballhandler is worried about Jeter reaching in and stealing the ball, so he turns his back to Jeter.  This allows for the double team to come and force the turnover.

Now, the ball handlers are better in the NBA, but I think Jeter’s speed is enough for him to be able to stay in front of his man.

Ability To Run A Team

At 5′11″ Pooh Jeter just isn’t big enough to exclusively be a scorer.  In the NBA, you just can’t have a 5′11″ shooting guard.  It creates bad matchups on the defensive end and makes it hard to score on the offensive end.  This means that Jeter is going to have to handle the basketball/run the team part of the time he is out there.  Fortunately for him and the Kings, he does that quite well:

Running an offense and being a go to scorer are two completely different roles, and Pooh Jeter was forced to play both during his time with Hapoel Jerusalem and for the most part he did it very well. Most of the time, Jeter knew his role on the court, when the team wanted him to score, he scored. When they needed him to run the offense he did that. When he was the primary ballhandler, he wasn’t looking to get his shots. He was looking to get the team into the set and hitting his teammates in position to score.

Outside Shooting

Jeter’s best skill is his outside shooting.  Jeter uses the three point shot to get a good chunk of his points, but maybe more importantly, the threat of him hitting a shot is what allows him to get into the lane and create havoc.  When Jeter is under control (and not in heat-check mode), he has really good form whether it is coming from off the dribble or of a catch:

Off the dribble, jump shooters (and that is what Jeter is) tend to float and that really messes with the result of a shot. However, Jeter’s shot in the clip above is an example of perfect from. His last dribble loads him up, he rises up, and lands in the same spot.

Off the catch, Jeter again shows solid form. Here, he floats into the open space, makes the catch (and doesn’t bring the ball down – that’s important) and knocks down the jumper.

Once Jeter starts knocking down a few threes, he becomes really dangerous.  Jeter’s defenders now have to press up on him, and that is when he can use his speed to his advantage.

On both of these plays, Jeter uses the threat of a shot (once with a head fake and once with a hesitation dribble) to get his defender to push up on him. The result is a drive by from Jeter (though on one play he gets fouled).

Weaknesses

Tendency To Overshoot

If Pooh Jeter knocks a few threes down, he has a tendency to take a few heat-check shots.  When he is shooting under control Jeter’s form is on point, when he is firing up heat-checks that is a totally different story.  One of the three games that I watched Jeter went 9-10 from three (his one miss was a 3/4 court heave).  He was simply unconscious and he took a few heat-checks:

These threes are deep, and you see Jeter’s leg swinging out in front of him.  Now they go in, so that makes them good shots, but if he misses, those aren’t good shots.  Now maybe he keeps this tendency under control in the NBA.  However, he may be prone to chucking up a couple deep bombs, especially after knocking down two or three in a row.

Closing Out On Shooters

While Jeter’s on ball defense is very good.  His off the ball defense, and more specifically his closing out on shooters, needs to be improved upon.  Jeter either closes out, a little too wildly, jumping on pump fakes (my guess is that he is trying to make up for his height, wanting to get in the shooter’s face), or he doesn’t close out hard, and he doesn’t bother the shot.

Here, Jeter has a long way to go to close out on the shooter. So he goes hard at him and jumps to try and bother the shot. The only problem is that the shooter pump fakes and Jeter goes flying out of the play.

Here, Jeter does the exact opposite. He doesn’t close out hard enough, and at his size, he can’t afford to do that. Jeter doesn’t get his hands high enough to bother the shot, and the shooter makes it in.

Conclusion

Pooh Jeter is going to get a chance to be an effective player off the bench, and I think he will do that.  In fact, I think if Jeter plays well, he can be that go to scorer in that second unit.  He can play at either guard spot, and that versatility gives the Kings plenty of options.  They can play him with Beno Udrih either off the ball or on the ball.  They can also play him with Francisco Garcia  where Garcia would play the two with Jeter playing the point.

The Kings got themselves a very explosive scorer in Jeter, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up a couple 20 point games off the bench.

Past Editions: Nikola Pekovic | Timofey Mozgov

Out of the eight players coming over to the NBA from overseas, Tiago Splitter is probably the most well known name (Not counting guys like Josh Childress and Linas Kleiza, who have already played in the NBA).  Splitter’s name has been out there since 2006 when he was supposed to enter the NBA draft, but eventually declined.  The Spurs took him the next year after, since his age made him eligible.  Spurs’ fans have been waiting for him ever since.  After agreeing to an $11 million deal over three years, Splitter is finally coming over to the NBA.

The reason that there has been so much hype (and so much talk about how good Splitter’s deal is for the Spurs), and it is because he is a very talented.  At 6′11″ and 245 pounds, Splitter’s polished post game is what really makes him special in my opinion.

Quick Note:  In the clips, Splitter is wearing #21 for his team in the white jerseys.  He is wearing an arm sleeve which makes identification easier.

Strengths

Polished Post Game

I briefly mentioned this in the intro, but in my opinion Tiago Splitter’s polished post game is his best attribute.  In the post, Splitter really makes it tough for defenders because he really knows how to counter what the defense does to him:

Here, Splitter’s defender has his hand on his back and is trying to be physical with him.  Splitter counters this by feeling for the defender and quickly pivoting to the inside.  As he does this, he throws his off hand up (if he keeps his hand close to his body, it isn’t a foul) creating separation between himself and his defender.  This gives him the lane and the only reason he misses is because he is fouled (it doesn’t get called).

If his defender tries to be less physical with him, Splitter will take the space he is given and create even more. Here, Splitter backs his man all the way down to the rim and is able to finish the play with a basket.

However, where Splitter’s post game separates itself from others is that he is so polished down low and he is able to finish in a variety of ways:

In clip 1, Splitter executes a fantastic up and under, showing the ball quickly to the defender before taking it away and making his move.  The move results in a foul and a trip to the line.  In clip 2, Splitter is backing down his man and it appears that he is going to make his move to the middle of the court.  At the last moment, Splitter quickly shifts his weight, turns baseline, and hits the hook using his soft touch.  In clip 3, Splitter realizes that he has a smaller man on him and instead of trying to force it inside he simply turns and hits a baby hook, taking advantage of his height.

All of the three moves shown above are extremely difficult to execute and Splitter seems to be able to execute them with ease.

Passing Ability

When you have the post game that Tiago Splitter has, you are going to see a lot of double teams.  Splitter’s ability to pass out of the post complements his post game so well, and it really puts the defense in a  tough decision.  If you let him work one on one, he will do his work in the post.  If you double him, he will find the open man:

Here, Splitter is doing his work in the post when a guard on the outside tries to come down and steal the ball.  The second that the guard comes down, Splitter hits his teammate for the open jumper.

This time, the defense tries to send a double team from the opposite side of the court.  This works with some big men, because they keep their head down and by the time he realizes the double team is coming it is too late.  This doesn’t happen with Splitter, he always keeps his head up, and in this case the result is a fantastic skip pass to a wide open teammate.

It isn’t just in the post either.  What makes Splitter a good passer in general is that he always knows where he wants to go with the basketball instead of making the catch and then looking for a passing option.  This means Splitter makes his passes quicker and that is harder to defend:

Defensive Ability

In addition to his post play and his passing, Splitter does a very good job on the defensive end.  He isn’t a player who is going to pile up a ton of blocks or a ton of steals, but his impact can’t really be measured by those stats.  He works so hard on the defensive end and is usually in the correct spot on the court, that he is an asset when playing defense:

I already mentioned that Splitter doesn’t block a ton of shots, but he effects plenty of shots by challenging them and forcing the offense to miss/alter shots.

In both of these clips, Splitter is able to force a miss.  In the first clip, Splitter helps on the penetration and forces the offensive player to shoot the ball long.  In the second clip, Splitter helps on defense and the ball is kicked to the outside.  Splitter knows he isn’t going to be able to block the shot, but he closes out hard, forcing the miss.

In addition to his help defense/closing out, Splitter is also a good defender in the post:

What really impresses me is that he can be so physical without fouling.  This is because he’s not using his arms to create the contact, instead he is using his chest.  He absorbs the offensive player’s attempts to back him down, and when he goes up for a shot, Splitters arms are free to contest.

Weaknesses

Not A Threat On  The Outside

Splitter’s two biggest weaknesses come from the fact that he doesn’t really have the ability to shoot the basketball from the outside.  Now, to his credit he knows his limitations and doesn’t force things (in fact I didn’t see him shoot one shot from outside of the lane in the four games I watched), but eventually teams are going to realize this and try to force Splitter to make his catch further away from the basket:

In each of these two clips, Splitter makes a catch on the outside and immediately looks for a teammate to pass to.  However, Splitter can’t find anyone and he is forced to put the ball on the floor.  In both instances, he is able to dribble himself into the post, but when he does that I have noticed that he doesn’t look as comfortable (or as polished) in the post.  The results of the two moves above are an airball and a travel.

Teams will start noticing that, and when they do they will begin to sag off of him big time:

Now normally this wouldn’t be a huge problem.  Duncan has a pretty good high post/outside game, so Splitter can work in the post while Duncan works on the outside.  However, Duncan has a very good low post game too, so you know the Spurs are going to want to take advantage of it.  This will force Splitter to play the high post, but since he isn’t a threat his defender will be able to double down on Duncan, making him ineffective in the post.

Foul Shooting

Now it should be mentioned that Tiago Splitter shot 79.1% from the free throw line in ACB play this past season.  However, it is hard to judge whether or not this was a fluke.  In my personal opinion, I am leaning towards it being a fluke, just because to have you shooting percentage jump from 68.2% (his percentage the previous year) to 79.1%.  Up until this past season, that 68.2% from the line was the best mark of his career.

Another reason that it could be fluky is that Splitter shot about 63% from the line during EuroLeague competition this year.  Now ACB and EuroLeague games pretty much overlap (though the ACB season does extend longer), so it is interesting that he shot it so poorly from the line in EuroLeague and so well during the ACB season.

The final reason I think that Splitter’s FT% is a fluke is that there are still some things wrong with his shooting form.  Mainly, he lets the ball rest on his palm:

Ask any good shooter and he will tell you that the key to getting good rotation on your shot is your fingers.  As you flick your hand when you shoot, your fingers want to me the last thing touching the basketball.  To get good rotation consistently, a shooter wants to create a little pocket between the palm of the hand and the basketball.  A good indication of proper hand position is that if you can see a gap between the palm of the hand and the basketball.  However, here you can see the ball is just resting on his palm.

Conclusion

In my opinion, the hype around Tiago Splitter is most definitely warranted, there is no question in my mind about that.  He is so polished on the offensive end in terms of his post play and his passing ability that I can see him being one of the top offensive back to the basket centers in the NBA this season.  Splitter has fantastic touch around the basket, and he always keeps his head up, so when defenses double him, he can find the open man.  On the defensive end, Splitter works very hard, and you know Coach Pop is going to love him for that.

However, his lack of shooting ability on the outside will create some problems at first (and maybe even during the entire season).  Coach Popovich is one of the best coaches there is though, and I think he will figure out what to do with Splitter when he wants to take advantage of Tim Duncan on the inside (one thing that immediately comes to mind is to have Splitter cut to the rim as soon as his man leaves him to double).

Update: Links

Came across two really good Tiago Splitter links and thought I would include them.

First, over at The Painted Area, they have a breakdown of Splitter’s game against the Dominican Republic from FIBA Americas in 2009.  I actually tried to get my hands on this game because it showcased Splitter against pro-level competition, but no luck.  The Painted Area does just an even better job looking at that individual game than I could have done.

Also at 48MinutesOfHell, they look at how Splitter will fit on the Spurs.  It is a video and very well done.  Go check it out!

Past Editions: Nikola Pekovic

Timofey Mozgov is a 24 year old center signed as a international free agent by the New York Knicks for $10 million over the course of three years.  Mozgov is a big boy at 7′1″ and 270 pounds, but he isn’t a stiff.  Mozgov has bounce to his step, and he is pretty mobile for his size.  Mozgov has spent the last four years playing for the Russian club Khimki Moscow Region.

Note:  Mozgov wears #25 for his team, Khimki.  You will recognize him in the clips by his high socks.

Strengths

He Can Run The Floor

Some Knicks fans are probably wondering why the Knicks signed a 270 pound big man to play in their run and gun style offense.  Despite his size, Mozgov doesn’t lumber up and down the court:

Mozgov doesn’t get the ball on this fast break, but you can see he can keep up with his point guard in transition.  He isn’t going to run by anybody on the break, but he can fill the lane in transition, making himself available to his PG in the middle of the paint on fast breaks.

Sets Good Screens/Strong Pick And Roll Game

In my opinion, Timofey Mozgov’s best skill right now is the ability to set screens and be the screener in pick and roll situations.  When setting screens, size is Mozgov’s best asset, but he also has fantastic form:

His feet are wide, he gets a low base, and he doesn’t move too much when he gets set.  He simply lets the ballhandler bring his man to the screen.  I also really like Mozgov’s ability to set legal screens in transition:

Mozgov is able to go from running down the court to setting a screen almost seamlessly.  This skill is important (especially when playing for a team that likes to play a fast pace game, like the Knicks) because now the offense doesn’t have to slow down and wait for the perfect situation to get the pick and roll going.  This also catches the defense off guard, and makes the screens even more effective.

Timofey Mozgov isn’t just a screen setter though.  Mozgov’s athletic ability at his size allows him to be pretty effective when rolling to the basket.

Mozgov has a pretty good feel of what the defenders playing the pick and roll want to do and he plays off of it. Here in clip 1, they trap the ballhandler and Mozgov quickly rolls to the basket. However, there are times where he needs to wait a few seconds before rolling to the basket, and he knows when to do that do (which is what happens in clip 2).

Mozgov doesn’t always roll the correct way, but unlike Nikola Pekovic (who we saw roll the wrong way every time).  He waits until after the initial contact is made before rolling.  This makes it less likely that he gets a moving screen set on him.  Also, Mozgov does a very good job of rolling to the open space on the court, making him available for passes at the rim:

Finally, Mozgov doesn’t get disappointed when he doesn’t get the basketball on the pick and roll.  Usually, when the roller is open and he doesn’t get it, they tend to pout.  Well Mozgov rolls straight towards the rim, ready to get the rebound:

Athletic Ability On Defense:

When Mozgov doesn’t have to think on the defensive end and he can just let his athletic ability take over, Mozgov can make some impact plays on the defensive end:

Here, the ballhandler takes it right into Mozgov. No thinking is necessary here, Mozgov just plays the ball and uses his athletic ability to block the shot.

Again, the ball is driven right to Mozgov, and he is mobile enough to not foul and deflect the ball, getting the steal.

Weaknesses

Defensive IQ

I just mentioned that when Mozgov doesn’t have to think and he can just react, he can be a pretty good defender.  However, when he needs to think and make a decision on the defensive end, it tends to be the wrong one.  Now, Mozgov’s team plays a lot of zone, so this lack of instincts when playing man to man defense could be due to lack of experience (which means it can be corrected/his instincts will improve with experience), but right now it is still a pretty big weakness.

Where Mozgov struggles the most is when he tries to defend the pick and roll:

On the pick and roll, Mozgov seems very unsure about when he needs to show and when he needs to stay with his man. In the clip here, this small hesitation before showing is what leads to a lay-up.

In addition to being unsure, when Mozgov does show, it is usually late and very weak. Instead of using his body to cut off the ballhandler and making him pick up his dribble, Mozgov reaches. Here he picks up a foul, but if he doesn’t get a steal the ballhandler simply gets around him and into the lane.

It’s not just on the pick and roll either. In general Mozgov’s instincts on the defensive end are pretty poor:

Here, it is pretty obvious that Mozgov and his teammate should be switching on the defensive end. However, Mozgov doesn’t switch and when he does realize he is supposed to close out on the shot, he closes out late, allowing for the open jumper.

These lack of instincts also hurts him when playing help defense. Often times Mozgov doesn’t know when to bring help. The result is that he usually doesn’t help, and when he does it is too late to make a difference.

Touch A Couple Steps Away From The Hoop

When posting up, position is very important for Mozgov.  When he gets close to the basket, he can use his height to help him finish.  However, when he gets a few steps away from the rim to an area where he needs to use his touch, he seems to struggle getting baskets.

Here Mozgov makes two pretty nice moves in the post, but when it comes time to put the ball in the basket, he can’t finish.

Also, Mozgov doesn’t have a constant jumper, so he is not a threat to stretch the court when he is on the outside.

Conclusion

After watching just a few of Timofey Mozgov’s games, it is pretty obvious why the Knicks made a play for him.  He runs the floor well and is very impressive in the pick and roll game (The Knicks were the best PNR team – when it came to the roll man – last year).  In my opinion what makes him a really good fit with the Knicks is that his weaknesses (bad defensive instincts, no touch away from the basket with his post moves) are in areas the Knicks don’t really concern themselves with, so they won’t be asking him to do things he is bad at.  Mozgov is the perfect candidate to back up Amar’e at the center position, and when he gets his minutes he can be pretty productive in the Knicks system.

Nikola Pekovic is a 24 year old 6′11″ center who was taken by the Minnesota Timberwolves with the first pick in the second round in 2008.  After playing two seasons for the Greek club Panathinaikos Pekovic signed a 3 year deal with the Timberwolves, guaranteeing that he will be taking his talents to the NBA.

Quick Note:  In the following clips, Nikola Pekovic is #14 playing for Panathinaikos, who are wearing green.

Strengths:

Work In The Post

The first thing that you notice when watching Nikola Pekovic play is that he absolutely loves throwing his body around when working in the post:

Pekovic is willing to bang bodies with his defender whenever he thinks he can improve his position by doing so. Pekovic has good but not great post moves and a good but not great ability to dribble in the post, but what makes him so good is that he gets such good position that all he needs to do is take one dribble or make one move to get a shot off:

In the above clip, the basketball gets swung to the wing, and as it does Pekovic absolutely drills his defender with his body.  This allows himself to get such good position in the post that he doesn’t even need to take a dribble after making the catch, he simply turns and hits the soft baby hook.

Besides getting good position, Pekovic’s next best skill in the post is his composure:

In both of the above clips, Pekovic’s composure is what allows him to get his points in the post.  In the first clip, Pekovic makes the catch and then pauses, allowing enough space to be created so he can make his move and score.  If he goes right away he spins right into a crowded area, instead, Pekovic waits for a second and he is able to make a move uncontested.

In the second clip, Peckovic’s initial move is half of a spin move.  Instead of forcing up a shot, Pekovic stays composed and continues to pivot.  The result is that he finds himself right at the rim totally uncontested.

Making Himself Available To Teammates

Besides scoring in the post, Pekovic seems to get the rest of his points playing off of his teammates.  He has an ability to create passing lanes for his teammates and staying available for them when they drive the basketball.  This is a lot harder than it sounds, and Pekovic makes it look easy, especially in the post:

In both of the clips above, Pekovic seems to be thinking one step ahead.  In both of the clips, his defender is working hard, trying to front him when he posts.  Instead of fighting through the front, he knows that his teammate will be kicking the ball around the perimeter if he can’t get it in the post right away.  So what Pekovic does so well is that he creates a passing lane before the passer even gets the ball.  The result is an easy dunk in clip one and a foul on the defense in clip two.

It’s not just in the post either.  Pekovic is very good at playing off of his teammate when his teammate drives the lane.  What I mean by that is he always seems to be available and in position to catch a pass:

Here, Pekovic’s teammate turns down his screen and drives baseline.  Pekovic’s teammate helps on the baseline driving, opening up the lane.  Pekovic cuts right into that open spot on the court with his hands ready.  He makes the catch and finishes at the rim.

Even in transition, Pekovic seemed to make himself available for teammates:

Here, Pekovic is trailing the play as his point guard is bringing the ball up in transition.  Instead of assuming that his teammate will take the shot or get an easy lay-up, Pekovic continues to trail his teammate all the way to the rim.  So when his teammate gets caught in the air Pekovic serves as the life raft, there ready to catch the ball and finish at the rim.

When his teammates drove, Pekovic wasn’t always looking to find an open area for himself.  Pekovic’s movements were all about trying to get a basket for his team (no matter who scores it):

In the above clip, the ball gets swung around and Pekovic’s teammate drives baseline towards him.  Instead of looking for an open spot for himself, he seals off his man and clears the lane.  This allows his teammate to get an easy lay-up.

Pick And Roll Defense

The final thing that really impressed me about Pekovic’s game was his pick and roll defense.  With the increased use of the pick and roll by teams in the NBA (whether it is the main offense or not, every team runs the pick and roll multiple times a game), this could be the most important skill Pekovic brings to the Timberwolves.  What makes Pekovic so good when the pick and roll is his ability to show strong and still get back to his man:

When most big men show on the pick and roll, they just sort of get in the way, not really being effective on defense. When Pekovic shows, his first goal is to force the ballhandler to pick up his dribble then he returns to his man:

Weaknesses

Help Defense

It’s funny, Pekovic is so good when defending the pick and roll that you would think he’d be a solid help defender.  This is far from the case.  Pekovic’s problem seems to be he tends to lock on his man and not worry about what is going on with everyone else:

On this play, Pekovic is watching his man walk up the court, and he stays with him.  The problem is that he isn’t the man with the basketball.  The man with the ball attacks the basket and Pekovic sees everything too late, resulting in Pekovic’s inability to challenge the shot.

It happens here again. Pekovic is so worried about his man as the ball is brought up the court that he isn’t in correct help position. By the time he tries to recover, it is too late and he ends up fouling Ricky Rubio.

Pekovic’s failures when helping also results in an inability to do a good job covering his man. On this play, he seems to overcompensate when playing help defense, allowing for his man to cut on him and get in position to score.

Setting Picks

Another skill that Nikola Pekovic struggles with is setting screens.  Just about every screen I saw him set in four games was a moving one.  Pekovic’s biggest problem is that he turns the wrong way when rolling off of the screen and this results in his butt getting in his way and hitting the defender trying to fight through the screen:

The reason you open up towards the basketball on the roll is so you are always looking at the basketball so you recieve a pass.  Another result of opening towards the basketball on the roll is that it keeps your butt away from the man fighting through the screen, minimizing the contact and minimizing the chance at getting a foul called.  When Pekovic sets screens, he turns the wrong way.  The result is that he gets his hips in the way of the defender, creating contact.  Now in the Greek League, this doesn’t seem to be a foul, but in the NBA that will get called every single time (also, in the last video on the second screen, Pekovic basically tackles Childress with a screen.  Really funny).

Rebounding

Pekovic’s final weakness is his rebounding.  Again, it is strange to see someone who is so good at throwing his body around (and is so big) being bad at rebounding, but that’s the case with Pekovic.  In Euroleague competition, Pekovic only averaged 3.8 rebounds per game in 21.5 minutes over the course of 12 games.  In Greek League play, Pekovic’s numbers were even worse, only grabbing 3.7 rebounds in 16.6 minutes over the course of 35 games.  This is troubling because Pekovic will be facing strong, bigger, and more athletic big men in the NBA.  To me, it seems like Pekovic gives up his position too early when going for a rebound:

Here, Pekovic has Josh Childress on his back. He has pretty good position, but instead of holding his position and waiting for the basketball to land towards him he goes after the ball, only to see it bouncing over his head.

Conclusion

In my opinion, I think Nikola Pekovic is going to have a very strong rookie season.  To me, his weaknesses seem to be correctable, (staying more focused on defense, roll the correct when when setting screen, and holding box outs longer) and watching him work so hard during games, I don’t think working hard to correct his flaws will be a problem.

I also like Pekovic’s versatility and it should (and I say should because who knows what is going on with the Timberwolves right now) get enough minutes to be an impact.  He is mobile enough to play the four alongside Darko and he is big and strong enough to play the five with Kevin Love.  I personally believe that the Timberwolves would be smart to play him at center alongside Love.  Pekovic doesn’t have much of an outside shot beyond the top of the key, and he is much more comfortable in the post whereas Love can work the outside.  Also, if you put a strong pass first point guard, he will be that PG’s dream.  If Ricky Rubio ever ends up in a Timberwolves’ jersey, this will be a fun combo to watch.

Dwight Howard (483/816 = 59.2%):

When Dwight Howard shoots free throw, it looks like he is playing darts rather than shooting a basketball.  This is because when he shoots his free throws, it is all wrist.  After he does his routine dribbles, he rests the ball on his shoulders, and with no knee bend or anything he fires the ball at the rim:

Howard ends up with a lot of line drives because he is basically aiming the basketball rather than shooting it.  A lot of that is because he rests the ball on his shoulder before taking the shot.  When Dwight gets his whole body in rhythm before he shoots it, he tends to make it:

The difference in the miss clip and the make clip is that on the miss, Dwight’s load up on the shot is all hurky-jerky finishing with a pause on his shoulders.  Meanwhile on the make, everything looks smooth.  It is no surprise the result of this one is a make.

DeAndre Jordan (48/128 = 37.5%)

When you want to show people how important repeating the same shooting motion on foul shots is, you should show clips of DeAndre Jordan.  On makes, he looks like a real good foul shooter and on misses…well, misses aren’t pretty at all, and it all comes down to shooting form.  Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t repeat the form he uses to make foul shots too often.

DeAndre Jordan tends to shoot a lot of airballs from the free throw line.  The reason is that most of the time, he doesn’t even bend his knees when shooting.  Bending your knees and rising up in rhythm is so important when shooting free throws, because it is what gives shooters the ability to reach the rim with a nice shooting arc.  When Jordan bends his knees, his shot looks completely different:

Sundiata Gaines (23/46 = 50% – Summer League 17/35 = 48.6%)

Gaines is a rare exception when it comes to bad free throw shooters.  Usually, it is just big men who seem to struggle with free throw shooting, but Gaines also seems to have problems.  Again, the problem comes down to inconsistency with his form.

On both of these misses, Gaines bends his knees but then allows his body to uncoil before shooting it. The result is that Gaines ends up shooting flat footed, and that won’t help you make any shots.

When Gaines makes his shots, he tends to have a less exaggerated knee bend and that helps him shoot it in rhythm.

This past season, Richard Jefferson had one of the worst years of his career.  His 12.3 points per game was his lowest since his rookie year in 2001 (when he averaged just 24 minutes per game) and his PER of 13.18 was the lowest of his career.

Where He Struggled

Three Point Shooting

Richard Jefferson’s shooting percentage actually increased from 2008-2009 (43.9%) to last season (46.7%), but his shooting accuracy dropped from a few key locations, and his True Shooting percentage reflects that.  This past season, Jefferson’s True Shooting percentage was 55.1% (Compared to 55.4% two years ago).

The most important location where Jefferson saw his shooting percentage drop from was the three point line.  Jefferson’s 31.6% from behind the arc was the lowest of his career since the 2002-2003 season (and a steep decrease from his 39.7% clip last year).

Getting To The Rim

While Richard Jefferson’s three point shooting declined, his FG% on shots at the rim actually increased by a pretty wide margin.  Jefferson went from 57% two years ago to 67.7% this past year.  The problem though is that he wasn’t able to get to the rim like he used to.  Jefferson’s attempts at the rim dropped from 4.0 a game two years ago to 3.1 last year.  I know it doesn’t seem like much, but extrapolate that over the course of a full season, and that is a pretty big dip in attempts.

The reason Jefferson’s attempts are down is that he just doesn’t have the same athletic ability that he had in the beginning of his career:

In the above video, Jefferson grabs the rebound and brings the basketball up the court.  Jefferson basically has an one on one situation here.  In the prime of his career, Jefferson takes that ball to the rim strong, but instead he pulls it out.  This forces him to pick up his dribble, and leads to a turnover.

And here, Jefferson gets the ball on the wing, and bobbles it a bit.  He recovers and tries to take it to the rim, but just doesn’t have the ability to get on the hip of his defender and create separation.  He is forced to take a pull up jumper, but he doesn’t even have enough space for that and he throws out his arm to try and create the space.  He gets called for a foul and it gets chalked up as a turnover.

Problems Spotting Up

I don’t know if the Spurs brought Richard Jefferson in to be the team’s spot up shooter, but that is what ended up happening last season.  The problem is that Jefferson isn’t comfortable as a spot up shooter, it simply just isn’t his thing, and the numbers prove it.  Jefferson’s 0.91 on Spot Up Plays (as describe by Synergy) was 189th in that category individually.  The big problem was that Jefferson only shot 36.4% on these type of plays.  Despite how bad he was on Spot Ups, it still somehow accounted for 33.9% of his offense:

During the possession above, Jefferson is just standing in the corner for the entire possession. Then he gets the ball and takes a shot.  In my opinion, Jefferson is not the type of player who is comfortable standing around in one spot then taking a shot when the ball gets to him.

Will He Bounce Back?

In my opinion, Richard Jefferson has the potential to bounce back from one of the worst seasons of his career.  The first reason I think this is because the drop in Jefferson’s three point shooting percentage seems more of a fluke than anything to me.  His form is still the same that it has always been:

The shots just didn’t seem to fall last year.  Also, if his three point shooting returns to where it has been for most of his career, it helps another aspect of his game where he really struggled, spot up shooting.  Jefferson isn’t a spot up shooter, never was, but if he makes his threes (48% of his spot up shots were threes) you will see an increase in his spot up shooting.

Jefferson can also see his game improve over last year if the Spurs recognize what Jefferson does well and takes advantage of it.  Instead of having Jefferson spot up so much, the Spurs would be smart to start moving him around and letting him cut off the basketball.  Jefferson can’t get to the rim using his dribble anymore, but when he cuts off the basketball, he can still be as effective as ever.

In fact, last year Jefferson had 1.61 points per possession (6th in the NBA) while shooting 83.8% on plays labeled as cuts by Synergy Sports.  The reason Jefferson is so successful when cutting off the ball is that it allows him to get to the rim easily without being defended:

Jefferson no longer has the quickness to get by his man, but when he makes a catch near the rim and can take one step and jump, he still has enough athletic ability to finish with a dunk. The problem was that it was only 8% of his total offense (88 plays in total) last year.

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Both Richard Jefferson and the Spurs need to focus on getting Jefferson moving off the ball more and spotting up less. If that happens, and Jefferson’s three point shooting returns to form, I fully expect Richard Jefferson to have a bounce back season.

Since the Heat haven’t played any games yet, I figured we could look at Team USA’s performance in the 2008 Olympics.  Now I know that the two players that are going to be playing with James, Wade, and Bosh on the Heat won’t be Olympic quality, I know that the teams playing against them are better than Australia, Greece, and Argentina, and I know that the Heat’s coaching staff won’t have two Hall of Fame college coaches to help break down the zone for NBA guys.  However, this is the closest we can get to seeing how a high-quality team operates against a zone defense, and what I took away from watching Team USA’s Olympic performance is that the zone will work against the Heat, but only in stretches.

Why It Will Work

When the zone worked against Team USA in the Olympics, it was because it got them to stand around and just pass the ball around the perimeter.  Here, Team USA is just going through the motions on offense, making pass after pass after pass, just allowing for the Spanish zone to rotate and stay in front of their man.  There are no penetrating or attacking dribbles, and that is exactly what Spain wants.  They want to see the ball being passed around like this rather than having a LeBron James or a Dwyane Wade taking their man to the basket and either finishing or kicking it out to an open teammate.

Teams also tend to get three point happy when playing against zone defenses.  If the ball gets swung around enough, the wings start to open up, and since the middle of zones tend to clog up the lane, the offense is almost baited into taking three pointers.  Both Dwyane Wade and LeBron James can knock down a three or two, but I bet you that teams would rather have them on the outside shooting threes than driving.

Why It Won’t Work

Run the zone long enough, and teams start to figure it out.  Players stop settling for the open jumpers and they start driving, coaches get a feel of a team’s zone and starts making adjustments, and players start to find holes in the zone:

The biggest hole being the middle of the zone, right at the top of the key.  It’s a hole, because no one specific player is responsible for the top of the key and it ends up being left wide open. After getting stopped by the zone a few times, I can imagine the Heat putting Dwyane Wade or LeBron James right in the middle of the zone and getting him the ball there. Now, the defense is in a tough position. If they collapse on him, he hits an outside shooter. If just the big man comes up on him, he dumps it down to Chris Bosh. If everyone stays home, James takes one dribble and finishes at the rim.

The big problem with the zone defense in the NBA is that when you play zone, all five men are looking at the ball and reacting to its movements rather than focusing on one player and reacting to him.  This allows for players to make a lot of cuts off the ball to get into open spots, and that is exactly what LeBron does here.  Everyone is watching the dribble penetration, so LeBron is able to just sneak behind the Spanish back line and get to the middle of the lane uncontested.  He makes the catch, and finishes easily at the rim.

Perhaps the biggest flaw with playing the zone defense in the NBA is that you putting yourself in a position to give up a ton of offensive rebounds when you play it. The reason behind it is that every defender is covering an area rather than a man, so when the shot goes up, defenders need to find somebody to box out. Most of the time, one or two offensive guys get to the glass untouched.

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Summing things up, the zone will work against a team like the Heat, but only in short stretches here and there. In the NBA, the zone works best when it is mixed in with a team’s man to man defense. This confuses the offense, and that confusion is what usually causes offenses to stand around and pass around the perimeter. Once players get comfortable though, they start looking for the holes in the zone that open up when you play it for an entire quarter.

That being said, I still think the Heat are going to see a lot of zone (maybe even a quarter’s worth of it), I just think that teams are going to run it in short stretches with a lot of man to man mixed in.  That might be the best way to try and stop the Heat.

The problem is that Carlos Boozer is now in Chicago, and there is a void in Utah’s pick and roll game.  In my opinion, Boozer’s replacement comes down to two guys, Paul Millsap and their newest acquisition Al Jefferson.  The answer should be pretty simple right?  Just look at who runs the pick and roll better, and use them to replace Boozer.  The problem with that is that both Millsap and Jefferson run the pick and roll with the same efficiency:

Jefferson and Millsap’s numbers are so similar that it is basically a toss up when trying to figure out who is better at running the pick and roll.  So when deciding who will replace Carlos Boozer as the main screener, the Jazz are going to have to look at some outside factors.

Who Would Run The Pick And Pop Better?

Being able to pop out after setting a screen and being able to hit a jumper from 10-23 feet is starting to turn into a necessary skill for a big man who wants to succeed when running the pick and roll.  This is because being able to both roll to the basket and popping out to hit the jumper keeps the defense guessing.  If you are able to hit that pick and pop jumper consistently, it is just one other thing the defensive big man showing on the screen needs to worry about.  So out of the two big men, who is the better shooter?  It’s Paul Millsap by wide margin:

Who Is Better In The Post?

This is an important question to ask, because in my opinion if you have someone who is really good/successful at working in the post, you don’t want to waste that post up skill by sticking him in the pick and roll over and over.  Just as Paul Millsap is far and away the better shooter of the two players, Al Jefferson is far and away the better post player:

Even though the field goal percentages are close, Al Jefferson’s points per possession are much higher because he doesn’t turn it over as much as Millsap in the post, and Jefferson is also able to finish with contact in the post.

Conclusion

Obviously looking at the evidence, Paul Millsap should be the man that runs the pick and roll with Deron Williams for the majority of the season.  This takes advantage of Millsap’s shooting ability (plus he is more mobile), and allows the Jazz to take advantage of one of the best back to the basket players in the NBA by sticking him in the post (rather than having him out at the foul line setting screens).

What To Run?

Now that we know who will run the pick and roll, we have to figure out how the two big men can share the court (and take advantage of their skills).  There is one set in particular that sticks out in my mind.  This is a set that when going through Synergy watching Paul Millsap screen and rolls I saw the Jazz run a fair amount of the time.  They ran this set when Boozer and Millsap were sharing the court and they wanted to try and get Boozer the ball in the post:

With Deron Williams bringing the basketball up, you have the Jazz’s three man on the same side as Al Jefferson (who will be playing the 5 spot).  You have Paul Millsap (the 4 man) setting up on the high post, while the 2 man sets up on that side’s corner.

As Williams crosses halfcourt, the 3 man cuts down and behind Al Jefferson.  He doesn’t cut all the way through to the basket, he is just getting level with Jefferson.

He then comes off of a downscreen set by Jefferson and as the 3 man pops out he receives the pass from Deron Williams.

The first look on this set is Al Jefferson posting up.  If they can get it to him, Jefferson now can get to work because of the great spacing this set produces.  If Jefferson in the post isn’t there, the 3 man quickly kicks it out to Deron Williams, who has shortened the passing distance between himself and the 3 man.

After Williams gets the pass, you now have a pick and roll situation with Williams and Millsap.

As Williams comes off the screen, he has three options.  1) Williams hits Millsap on the screen, this results in either an easy basket or it forces the defense to rotate to Millsap and then Jefferson is open for a post to post pass and an easy finish.  2) Williams can keep it and either take the jumper off the dribble (something he is very good at) or drive the basket for a lay-up or drive and kick. 3) The third option is Williams can hit the 2-man because for an open jumper (this happens if the 2-man’s defender gets sucked into helping on the pick and roll action).

The Jazz can even flip this around and run the pick and roll first, and if nothing is there, they can swing it around and post Jefferson.  This isn’t even considering all the high-low stuff Millsap and Jefferson can run.

With that buzzer beater, Summer League 2010 finished in thrilling fashion.  Over the past 14 days, there were a combined 78 games played in Orlando and Las Vegas.  In those 78 games you had rookies trying to prove they belong, second year players trying to take the next step, and undrafted rookies/unsigned free agents trying to earn a contract.  All this lead to some great individual performance and some fantastic games.

NBAPlaybook got into Summer League this year by doing 19 posts over the course of 14 days.  Just in case you missed any of them, here is every post we did over the past two weeks:

• Gordon Hayward Working Off The Ball
• Summer League Can Be A Learning Experience
• Is Lance Stephenson A Point Guard?
• Should The Sixers Be Worried About Evan Turner?
• Paul George Wins The Game With Both Offense And Defense
• Dominique Jones Can Attack The Rim, But Is That All?
• Patrick Patterson Is Ready To Contribute Right Away
• Unsigned Hype: Day 1
• Austin Daye’s Ability To Handle Physical Play Key To His Success
• Unsigned Hype: Day 2 & 3
• Breaking Down John Wall’s Debut
• DeMarcus Cousins’ Passing Ability
• Bucks Get Beat At The Buzzer…Twice
• Jordan Hill’s Post Up Struggles
• Why Multiple Options Are Important During Sets Late
• Pooh Jeter’s Game Winner
• How To Make Up For Missed Free Throws
• Gani Lawal Proving He Belongs
• Earl Clark Still Looking To Take The Next Step

I also wanted to say thanks to everyone who has been stopping by the site to check out a post during Summer League this year.