Running total: +19.62pts

23rd February

CHOLA EMPIRE 3.35S 1pt
HEATH RISE 5.15S 1/2pt EW

22nd February (-0.38pts)

ONIGHT 4.30N 1pt WON 9/4
RENESMEE 5.30K 1pt
WINTER MOON 6.00K 1pt
LIGHTSHIP 6.30K 1pt WON 11/8
D DAY ODETTE 7.00K 1pt
RIKONA 7.00K 1pt

21st February

NO SELECTIONS

20th February (-3pts)

GREEN PLANET 5.00N 1pt
UNITED FORCE 6.30N 1pt
OTTO OYL 7.00N 1pt

19th February

NO SELECTIONS

18th February

STRIKE ALLIANCE 4.33L 1pt
ADEB 7.00N 1pt WON 10/3

17th February

NO SELECTIONS

16th February

NO SELECTIONS

15th February (+7.50pts)

DESERT COP 5.30K 1pt WON 11/2
McCLEAN HOUSE 6.00K 1pt WON 2/1

14th February (-1pt)

SEAHRENA 6.00N 1/2pt EW

13th February (+1.25pts)

NOLTON CROSS 7.30W 1pt WON 5/4

12th February (-1pt)

KODI DANCER 2.20S 1/2pt EW

11th February

NO SELECTIONS

10th February (+0.90pts)

BACK FROM DUBAI 4.20S 1/2pt EW PLACED 12/1

8th February (+1.30pts)

MUZAFFAR 4.40N 1/2pt EW PLACED 28/1
UNITED FORCE 6.10N 1pt

7th February (+3.50pts)

LIGHTSHIP 7.30K 1pt WON 7/2

6th February

NO SELECTIONS

5th February

NO SELECTIONS

4th February (+4PTS)

SENESI 6.00 K 1pt
RIKONA 8.00 K 1pt WON 5/1

3rd February

NO SELECTIONS

2nd February

NO SELECTIONS

1st February (-1pt)

ROSCIOLI 8.00 K 1pt

31st January (-1pt)

PINK HAZE 8.30 S 1pt

30th January (+0.25pts)

WOLF OF KINGSTREET 6.30 W 1/2pt EW
TABARETTA 8.00 W 1pt WON 5/4

29th January

NO SELCTIONS

28th January (+0.8pts)

BERKSHIRE BREEZE 2.53L 1pt WON 4/5

27th January (+1.38pts)

FIRST SIGHT 3.25 L 1pt WON 11/8

26th January (-4pts)

DAGMAR RUN 1.35S
TIGER CRUSADE 2.10S
PERCY WILLIS 4.00N
ADEB 7.30N

25th January (+2pts)

GINCIDENT 1.30N 1pt WON 2/1
SOCIETY RED 2.30N 1/2pt EW
DESERT COP 5.30K 1/2pt EW PLACED 25/1
GARRICK STREET 5.30K 1pt

24th January (-2pts)

HIYA MAITE 7.00S
BACK FROM DUBAI 8.30S

23rd January (-1pt)
SHOW ME A SUNSET 5.10S

22nd January

NO QUALIFIERS

21st January (+3pts)

CHOLA EMPIRE 1.25 S 1pt WON 3/1

20th January

NO QUALIFIERS

19th January (-1pt)

STORM VALLEY 5.30K 1/2pt EW

18th January

NO QUALIFIERS

17th January (-2pts)

LOGISTICAL 3.15K
DEADLOCK 7.00S

16th January

NO QUALIFIERS

15th January (-1pt)

BACK FROM DUBAI 12.50 Southwell 1pt

14th January (-1.09pts)

TABARETTA 12.05 Lingfield 1pt 3rd
SPRING PROMISE 1.10 Lingfield 1pt 2nd
STAR GUEST 1.10 Lingfield 1pt WON 10/11

13th January (-1pt)

SUDDEN AMBUSH 2.10 Lingfield 1pt WON Evs
EXCEL POWER 5.15 Newcastle 1pt
TAHONTA 5.45 Newcastle 1pt

12th January (+11pts)

FIRST SNOWFALL 1.15 Newcastle 1pt 9/1 WON 12/1
DARK DESIGN 5.30 Chelmsford 1pt

11th January (-1pt)

BORA BREEZE 7.00 Kempton 1pt 3rd

Once we get the little matter of the Grand National out of the way this weekend we head straight into Flat Mode...

The Guineas Trials begin with Newmarket next week and then it's a case of counting down to the big Summer meetings of Epsom and Royal Ascot.

Epsom and Royal Ascot have always been very profitable for Festival Trends subscribers and last year's combined profit of +35.44pts was only a little bit down on the 2020 figure of +43.40pts.

That's a total 78.84pts profit or £788 to £10 stakes from just 4 meetings!

SPECIAL OFFER

For this week only I'm offering FULL access to Festival Trends right through until Royal Ascot 2022 for JUST £24.95

For this incredible price you'll get 40 of the biggest Flat races throughout April and May (including full coverage of the Newmarket Guineas meeting) and both of those big profit meetings at Epsom and Royal Ascot

But, Sign Up Now and I'll also throw in this week's Aintree Festival and the Irish National on Easter Monday.

Festival Trends has an unmatched record in the Irish National with recent winners incl. Niche Market 33/1, Bluesea Cracker 25/1, Liberty Council 50/1, Thunder and Roses 20/1 and General Principle 20/1.

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If I fail to make a profit by the end of Royal Ascot 2022 I will give every Member access to the Horses From Ascot List (profitable in all of the last 4 years and well over 200pts in profit)

+5.20pts

28th April

Chief of Staff 2.00 Ling

27th April

No Selections

26th April

No Selections

25th April

Dors Toyboy 3.50 Ling 1/2pt EW Placed 12/1
Broxi 4.20 Ling 1/2pt EW 5th

24th April

No Selections

23rd April

No Selections

22nd April

No Selections

21st April

Brunel Charm 5.05 Chelm 2nd
Last Date 5.05 Chelm 3rd
Namjong Boys 7.37 Chelm 7th

20th April

No Selections

19th April

Glory Nights 7.35 Wolv 1pt 5/1

18th April

Tabdeed 5.15 Kempton 1pt 5th

17th April

No Selections

16th April

No Selections

15th April

Imperial Sands 2.00 Newc 1/2pt EW 6th
Boasty 3.20 Chelm 1pt 2nd
Merlins Beard 5.30 Chelm 1pt 5th

14th April

No Selections

13th April

No Selections

12th April

No Selections

11th April

No Selections

10th April

No Selections

9th April

Ocean Ruler 4.57 Wolv 5th

8th April

All Go 6.00 Kemp 3rd

7th April

Koeman 5.43 Chelms WON 11/2
Fangorn 6.45 Chelms 4th

6th April

Lady Clementine 4.55 Kemp 2nd
Archiano 5.30 Kemp NR

5th April

No Selections

4th April

No Selections

3rd April

No Selections

2nd April

No Selections

1st April

Dave Dexter 7.10 South WON 12/1
Ustath 8.10 South 6th

More races are featured in the Festival Trends Cheltenham Guide (available HERE)...

Champion Hurdle

Horses that had won a Gr. 3 Hurdle or lower in the previous 26-44 days have won 4 and been placed once in the last 10 years. There have been just 8 such runners in the last decade.

Horses to consider this year – Glory and Fortune

Ballymore Hurdle

6yo's rated 146+ that have run exactly three times over hurdles have won 8 of the last 10 renewals including all of the last 5 winners

Horse to consider this year - Ginto

Coral Cup

Those rated 148-153 that have run eight or nine times over hurdles have won 50% of the last 10 Coral Cup's from a very small percentage of the total number of runners in the race.

Horse to consider this year – Grand Roi

Grand Annual

Horses that hadn't run for over 80 days and hadn't won in their last 6+ runs are responsible for half of this decade's winners and show a very healthy return on investment.

Horse to consider this year – Gumball

Plate Chase

A 9yo rated 136-142 that had won at least one of their last 3 starts has won three times in the last decade from just 9 such runners.

Horse to consider this year – Palmers Hill

THE GREAT FESTIVAL TRENDS GIVEAWAY

£20.00!

All of the last 12 winners had their last race in a class 2 or class 3 handicap chase. All of the last 12 winners had raced at least twice in handicap company. All of the last 10 winners were rated 120-130. 15 of the last 16 winners carried more than 11-00. 12 of the last 13 winners had been rested at least 33 days. 11 of the last 12 winners finished top 5 last time out (exception pulled up). 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7yo.

Applying the trends strictly leaves us looking at just one runner. He's been staying on nicely over 2 miles the last twice and looks like the step up in trip should suit.

SELECTION: ONE TRUE KING 1/2pt 15/2

1.50 Adonis Hurdle (Grade 2)

Every winner this century has been under 10/1. All of the last 12 winners were male. The last 4 winners with an official rating were rated 133+. 11 of the last 12 winners had raced a maximum of twice over hurdles in the UK or Ireland. 6 of the 7 winners to have raced in the UK over hurdles finished Top 2 last time out (exception 6th). 6 of the last 12 winners were French Bred. 5 of the last 12 winners were making their UK hurdling debut (from just 18 such runners). All 13 runners (in the last 12 years) coming from the UK or Irish flat have been beaten. Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have won 12 of the last 15 renewals.

Shock results are few and far between in this race with fancied runners very much to the fore. The Trends leaves us with three possibles.

Paul Nicholls runs two hurdle debutantants off the flat but those coming from the UK don't have a very good record and it may pay to side with his French Bred runner instead.

SELECTION: RUBAUD 1/4pt EW 20/1 - 4 PLACES

2.25 Pendil Novice Chase (Grade 2)

12 of the last 13 winners were rated 142+. 7 of the last 12 winners were French Breds. 19 of the 22 winners this century have been 6-8yo's. 7 of the last 12 winners had their last run in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company. 3 of the 4 runners coming on from Sandown have won. Only 1 winner in the last 12 years had their last run in a handicap (21 such runners). Paul Nicholls has won 11 of the last 16 renewals.

Quite simply, siding with the Paul Nicholls runner has been a profitable angle for over 15 years and with his runner this year holding very strong trends claims he looks once again to have the most likely winner. He ran in to a very decent Venetia Williams horse last time out when third in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles at Sandown and should be able to gain compensation here.

SELECTION: PIC D'ORHY 1pt 2/1

3.00 Dovecote Hurdle (Grade 2)

All of the last 8 winners were aged 5 or 6yo, had been rested at least 16 days, had run 2-4 times over hurdles and last ran in a non handicap. All 8 winners had won a hurdle race. 7 of the 8 winners were rated 130+ (exception unrated). 6 of the 8 winners had their last run in class 4 (both exceptions ran in graded company). 6 of the last 8 winners also won their last race.

The likely favourite has by far the best looking trends profile and absolutely hacked up last time out in a Sandown Novice Hurdle having run well behind leading Supreme Novices Hurdle runner Constitution Hill the time before. That form is clearly the best on show in this race and he is a strong fancy to take this race.

SELECTION: SHALLWEHAVEONEMORE 2pts 13/8

3.37 Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

All of the last 15 winners were rated 130-154 and had been rested at least 21 days. 14 of the last 15 winners were aged 7-9yo. 10 of the last 12 winners had raced at least 6 times over fences. 8 of the last 12 winners were Irish Bred. 5 of the last 12 winners had their last run in a non handicap. 3 of the last 12 winners had their last run in a novice chase. 3 of the last 6 winners were sired by Kings Theatre. All 22 claiming jockeys have been beaten in the last 12 years. Only 1 of the last 12 winners also won their last race (from 35 such runners). Colin Tizzard has had 2 winners and 4 places from 9 runners. Paul Nicholls has won just once from 27 runners.

Colin Tizzard likes to target this race and his sole runner this year was a classy hurdler who was mixing it with the very best over fences as a novice. He didn't look as sharp on his two chase starts earlier this season but had a wind op and a 3 month break before reappearing in a hurdle race two weeks ago. He finished a close up third and that run should bring him here fit and ready to maintain his trainers good recent record in the race.

SELECTION: THE BIG BREAKAWAY 1/2pt 15/2

4.10 Handicap Hurdle

All of the last 12 winners were rated under 134. All of the last 12 winners had their last run at 2m5f or less (9/12 ran over 2m4f-2m5f). 11 of the last 12 winners carried 10-08 or more. 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5-7yo. 11 of the last 12 winners had raced at least 4 times over hurdles. 10 of the last 12 winners finished Top 7 last time out (4 won / 2 failed to complete). 8 of the last 12 winners were Irish Bred. 6 winners had their last run in class 3 company. 4 winners and 8 places had their last run at Kempton. 

The one horse that seems to satisfy the trends the best is the Nicky Henderson runner who has been absent from the track for over two years. He has only had one start in this country, having raced three times in France, where he could only manage a tailed off 7th in a Kempton Novice. That obviously wasn't his true running and the fact connections have kept their faith with him and given him the time off he needs hopefully points to better things ahead. He's had a wind op since that last run and if he's straight enough to do himself justice may be thrown in off a rating of just 120.

SELECTION: FAROUK DE CHENEAU 1/4pt EW 12/1

Last week I asked you to guess the three Sporting Venues my son and I were photographed at for the chance to win the profits from a Lucky 15 bet I placed with William Hill.

The vast majority of the guesses were correct (Anfield, Yankee Stadium and Newbury) and the bet itself had a winner and two decent priced places to give a nice £25 profit for the competition winner, David B

David received a Festival Trends Subscription for the NH Season but very generously asked me to donate the winnings from the bet to charity. I was delighted to do so and the Racing Welfare charity were the happy beneficiaries of £25 while David got my Chepstow tips for Saturday which proved highly profitable. Everyone was a winner!

So, let's do it all again.....

Simply comment below with the three racecourses Dylan and I are photographed at and one lucky winner will receive a NH Festival Trends Subscription and ALL the profits from the Lucky 15. Prize winner drawn at noon on Saturday 16th October and notified shortly after with plenty of time before the racings starts.

FREE to enter and FREE to everyone - simply leave your guesses below!

(Have as many guesses as you like but only 1 correct entry per person will count. Competition running on both the Blog and Twitter. Comments may need to be authorised so there may be a slight delay in seeing your guesses appear)

Winner will also receive a Festival Trends NH Subscription for 2021-22 (worth £59.95)

Racecourse 1 (Hard)

Racecourse 2 (Easier)

Racecourse 3 (Easy)

Saturday's bet (BETFRED)

GUSTAVUS WESTON 2.00 Ascot 14/1 (5 places)
ALBAFLORA 2.35 Ascot 5/1 (3 places)
MARIES DIAMOND 4.30 Ascot 25/1 (7 places)
BALLYANDY 4.35 Ffos Las 10/1 (4 places)

Answers were: Anfield, Newbury & Yankee Stadium NY

There were 74 comments (not all correct!) 3 email entries and 5 correct answers on Twitter.

The random number generator gives the winner as...

David Black

Best of luck for this afternoon! I've sent an email with the details.

I've gone with 4 horses today in a Saturday Lucky 15 and staked them in a 50p EW bet which returns just under £12,000

To be in with a chance of winning ALL the profits from the bet simply name the three sporting venues in the pictures below. Winner drawn at random at noon today so get those answers in quickly...

Leave your guesses in the comments below...

Good luck,
Gavin

This Winter, Festival Trends will be covering the big meetings in full each weekend.

Every race from each of the 11 meetings...

6 x 1pt EW Singles
12 x 1/4pt EW Doubles
8 x 1/4pt EW  Trebles

These are my Ayr Gold, Silver and Bronze Cup selections (2x2x2)...

BRONZE CUP (Friday 3.20pm)

SHOW ME SHOW ME 33/1 (6 places)
MARK'S CHOICE 9/1 (6 places)

SILVER CUP (Saturday 2.30pm)

ROYAL SCIMITAR 10/1 (6 places)
BOARDMAN 16/1 (6 places)

GOLD CUP (Saturday 3.40pm)

POPMASTER 10/1 (7 places)
SUNDAY SOVEREIGN 28/1 (7 places)