This upward adjustment comes on the back of a robust ramp-up period characterised by the efficient mobilisation of the mining fleet, superior feed grades, and impressive recovery rates within the processing plant.

As of the current reporting cycle, these combined factors have already delivered a year-to-date production total of 3.6 million pounds of $U_3O_8$, providing the company with the momentum needed to raise its targets as it approaches the end of the 2026 financial year on 30 June.

The company now expects its total $U_3O_8$ production for the year to fall between 4.5 million and 4.8 million pounds, a notable increase from the previous guidance range of 4 million to 4.4 million pounds. Despite this surge in output, Paladin has chosen to maintain its original sales volume guidance, which remains steady at between 3.9 million and 4.2 million pounds.

Records indicate that the company successfully sold three million pounds of uranium oxide during the nine-month period ending 31 March, suggesting a disciplined approach to inventory management and market delivery as they prepare to release their formal March quarterly report.

Regarding the financial efficiency of the operation, the group’s cost of production is projected to stay within the previously established range of $44/lb to $48/lb. However, Paladin has noted that this stability is contingent upon the absence of further escalations in the Middle East conflict, which could potentially impact forecast costs through broader geopolitical disruptions.

The company remains vigilant, stating that it is “closely monitoring the potential impacts of disruptions arising from current geopolitical events” to ensure that any external volatility is managed effectively without compromising the mine’s operational integrity.

In a strategic move to streamline its balance sheet, Paladin has also significantly reduced its guidance for capital and exploration expenditure. The budget for these activities has been slashed to a range of $15 million to $17 million, down from the earlier estimate of $26 million to $32 million.

This reduction is attributed to a rigorous reprioritisation and the deliberate deferral of certain projects, allowing the company to focus its resources on immediate production goals and operational stability during this high-growth phase at Langer Heinrich.

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The majority of organisations implementing oil analysis face the challenge of maximising operational cost savings against the pressure to achieve full production and enhancing shareholder value.  Oil analysis provides a means to achieve the end goal – a positive payback and overall cost savings. However, this is not a given – an organisation may or may not achieve the intended benefits for several reasons, chief among them being failure to implement a sound corrective-action strategy.

This Technical Bulletin aims to investigate the reasons behind organisations’ inability to attain cost savings and also to provide information on how to optimise operational cost savings by being responsive to the outcomes on analysis reports, or by taking remedial action. I will discuss the benefits and drawbacks of taking remedial action, or not doing so, the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for tracking progress, as well as “What cost savings look like” and “What cost savings are not,” using data analysis outcomes and case studies.

In order to achieve financial savings, organisations must implement systems that facilitate the effective operation of the oil analysis programme and conduct periodic audits to ensure that the processes are being followed.

It all begins with regular and systematic oil sampling that generates data on an on-going basis to enhance informed decision-making. The oil analysis or cost-savings cycle is iterative and can be detailed as follows:

As illustrated in the diagram above, when oil sampling is done on a regular and systematic basis, problems are identified and reported by the laboratory, equipment is scheduled for troubleshooting and investigation, then corrective action that addresses the root cause of the problem is implemented, guided by the response time indicated by the laboratory. This results in performance improvement and cost savings. A check sample is taken to confirm improvement, and the process keeps repeating as machine operating hours increase.

It is important to mention that, very often, corrective action is taken but the problem persists. The key is in addressing the root cause of the identified problem. The following KPIs can be utilised to track the effectiveness of corrective action taken or lack thereof:

*An alarm is a report expressing the need for corrective action. It is characterised by an urgent or critical report severity, a call to action in response to a problem identified and reported by the oil test laboratory, WearCheck.

The Big Picture Principle

It is not enough to focus on reacting to the individual oil sample result, even though this contributes immensely to overall cost savings. The big picture principle must be applied on an on-going basis, where the maintenance engineer or manager applies a strategic approach. This entails examining the overall context, trending results month by month, year by year and looking at long-term outcomes and indicators, prioritising critical issues and focusing on solutions to identify fleet or plant problems, adaptability and sustainability.

Some of the key questions are:

• Is this problem affecting this component only or the entire fleet or plant?
• Is it affecting a specific make & model of plant?
• Is it affecting how a plant operates in a specific operating environment?
• Is it affected by changes in load or intensity of operation?
• Is it affecting equipment operated by a specific operator?
• Are our operational systems adaptable enough or responsive to current needs or indicators?

WearCheck can assist customers in managing and optimising their oil analysis programmes through comprehensive KPI reports that distil key data such as severity trends, repeat problems, component or fleet-level problem patterns and data-quality issues into clear, actionable insights that assist with reliability improvement and root cause analysis. These tailored reports form part of WearCheck’s management-support offering and are available as an optional service upon request.

What cost savings are NOT!

In a recent study, we examined a year’s worth of oil analysis data across all components on a mobile plant from engines, transmissions, hydraulic systems and axles for a company within the manufacturing industry. The findings were as follows:

• 46% of the annual oil samples extracted were alarms (Ratio almost 1:2).
• 28% of the total annual problems or alarms are repeat issues.
• 1 in every 3 alarms represented a repeat problem.

Interpretation: one in every two oil sample results is an alarm and the total alarms figure is 27% above the set target for the year.  The percentage of repeat problems is significant, meaning repeat problems are the key driver of the accumulated annual alarms/overall problematic oil samples. These figures are exorbitant and the scenario can be described as too costly and un-economical.

A repeat problem is a pointer to a slow response-rate to alarms, or that the corrective action implemented did not address the root cause of the problem. Alternatively, it is simply indicative of the absence of corrective action. We decided to test this assertion further by examining the level of feedback, and findings were as follows:

Percentage feedback for the year was 28%.

Average feedback days for cases where feedback was submitted: 186 days, some of the reports needing feedback were running nto day 300 without any response.

Interpretation: only 28% of alarms had feedback submitted and it took 186 days to submit the feedback, with some cases going into 300 days with no feedback, indicating a poor responsiveness to alarms.

Given the findings above, it can be argued that with a feedback level of 28%, a greater percentage of alarms went unresolved, resulting in fault repeats and lost potential cost savings. Identified problems continued to recur, exposing the fleet to the risk of catastrophic failure – a situation which would negatively impact productivity. This is indicative of a “Snowball Effect”.

The Snowball Effect

A snowball rolling down a slope will pick up more snow on its way, thereby growing bigger in size and gaining more momentum, to the point that one may not even be able to stop it. By the same token, a regular study of oil analysis data over two decades has revealed that small, identified problems – if not resolved early  – will grow into much larger and more complex challenges over time. The identified problem keeps repeating and getting worse, in most cases to the point of component failure. Therefore, we have seen that the longer one waits or procrastinates addressing a problem, the higher the likelihood that it may not even be addressed, exposing plant to the risk of component failure, expensive repair costs and lost production.

Is there any correlation between low feedback, fault repeats and component changes?

In the study, we raised further questions to determine if there was a correlation between low feedback levels, fault repeats, component failures, and component changes, among other factors. We discovered that there was a link between component changes of oil-wetted components and oil analysis fault repeats. The components that were being repaired had a history of repeated contamination and wear problems.

“Thou shalt not allow a problem to recur more than twice”!

There was also a common pattern noticeable with the third consecutive occurrence of a fault (three counts of a fault repeat). Three out of four components with fault repeats either went through a parts change on the third consecutive occurrence or a complete component change.  This was the case in areas of high intensity of operation. In areas of low intensity of operation, repeated parts changes were a common phenomenon. Below is a trend for Fleet D01 Transmission showing movement from “Normal” severity status to “Borderline” in month three, then further deterioration in months four and five, with resultant component failure three months after the water-contamination problem was discovered:

This is true to the key phrase “Oil analysis helps the most if you pick up a problem and address it at its onset.” We also noticed that this phenomenon of excessive fault repeats was synonymous with over-expenditure. The phrase “We have overshot our budget” was common during feedback sessions. Components end up running to failure, reminiscent of the “Black Swan Effect” (when unpredictable events are explained in hindsight), with severe consequences – to the extent of affecting a whole production line when a catastrophic breakdown occurs.

Looking at the case of new equipment with purchase cost exceeding US$500 000 and, in some cases, running above US$1 Million depending on machine type, brand, size, application and other factors, we realised that by the time it  reaches year five, it has undergone substantial component changes  – a situation which increases the average cost of equipment ownership. The equipment is not able to achieve its full expected life.

Undoubtedly, the above scenario provides a compelling case for every organisation that has decided to embark on an oil analysis programme to put in place and relentlessly enforce systems that enhance effectiveness and efficiency, guided by the vision to achieve cost savings. Poor responsiveness to oil analysis reports creates a huge opportunity cost, as every alarm presents an opportunity to save. It therefore follows that, if an organisation is to reap the benefits of investing in an oil analysis programme, a sound corrective-action strategy must be at the heart of the maintenance system.

What cost savings ARE!

To demonstrate what cost savings are, we will examine a case study from Delta Transport Services, the Transport and Logistics arm of Delta Corporation Limited, a leading beverage-manufacturing company in Southern Africa that has been implementing the oil analysis programme for the past twenty-five years:

Forklift Differential Case:

A scheduled oil sample was extracted from a Forklift Differential (sample 1). The WearCheck laboratory detected and urgently reported critical water contamination at 4.1%. The workshop responded quickly, which allowed the defective breather to be changed. The results of the two subsequent oil tests showed that the issue had vanished, indicating that the problem’s underlying cause had been identified and fixed. The diagram below illustrates the improvement in report-severity status:

Sample 1 showed critical status (Red), 4.1% water detected – immediate attention to problem required! Following a swift response by the workshop team, the problem was addressed, resulting in improvement of report-severity status to normal status (Green) for the next two scheduled oil samples.

If the issue hadn’t been resolved in a timely manner, the organisation might have suffered a premature differential failure that would have cost it anywhere from US$2,500 to US$9,000 in repairs or component-replacement expenses, not to mention the expense of missed productivity and downtime – imagine if this had been a CAT 797, this could have saved US$100,000 cost of differential overhaul. Therefore, good responsiveness by the team significantly reduced the risk of failure, thus improving forklift availability and reliability. This approach has been utilised across the entire fleet at Delta Transport Services over time, bringing about a multiplier effect, which has resulted in huge cost savings and forklifts attaining between 18 and 21 operational hours per day.

Delta Transport Services Technical Manager, Mr Tavonga Gwatidzo, had this to say:

‘Well done to the team for upholding systems and maintaining a good level of responsiveness to the alerts by WearCheck. The WearCheck tribology programme has assisted Delta Transport to maintain a reliable, healthy and highly productive fleet. We have managed to achieve up to 30 000 forklift operational hours against a target of 18 000 hours. We believe that effective implementation of the oil analysis and condition monitoring programme is contributing significantly to this level of success. Thank you to Team WearCheck for the partnership.’

Kennedy Kashangura, Delta Transport Services National Operations Executive added: ‘Our two key KPIs – oil sampling compliance and corrective action response rate – help us to maximise operational cost savings and keep productivity high. The WearCheck oil analysis programme keeps us ahead of the pack. With an average fleet availability of 98.8%, we are able to move our products on time, ensuring good customer satisfaction. Our systems are standardised throughout all our operations around the country, with WearCheck at the heart of our maintenance systems.’

In reality: time, resources and production pressure are always a constraint. From WearCheck’s perspective, feedback is critical – in order to ensure full team participation in the continuous improvement process and boost cost savings, we encourage the implementation of a four-pronged actions-and-feedback approach as follows:

Gaining maximum return on investment into a good condition monitoring programme requires leadership with a strong business culture cultivating a positive work ethic and a winning mentality across the team, leading to an ultimate positive cost-savings yield.

Oil analysis is not an event; it is a process involving an accumulation of many tiny actions, which can result in a Domino Effect – where one event triggers a chain of related events. Just as knocking down a single domino can lead to a chain reaction where the rest of the Dominos fall, small and consistent corrective actions in oil analysis will lead to enormous outcomes, encompassing huge cost savings and attainment of full productivity through full utilisation of assets. These wins are noticeable through individual improvements which are cumulative over time.

Please visit www.wearcheck.co.za, call head office on +27 31 700-5460, or email marketing@wearcheck.co.za.

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The programme was introduced on 13 April 2026 at Unam’s José Eduardo dos Santos Campus in Ongwediva under the framework of the International Institute of Welding, with an inaugural cohort of 12 students. It is offered in partnership with the Association for Welding and Allied Processes of Namibia and has attracted direct scholarship support from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research with ten scholarships secured under the RealTest Project with a further 30 to follow.

Unam’s Vice Chancellor Kenneth Matengu described the launch as a defining moment. “This programme is a defining achievement not only for Unam but also for Namibia and the African continent. It demonstrates our commitment to producing industry-ready graduates who can compete globally while addressing local development priorities. Through this initiative, we are strengthening Namibia’s position in emerging sectors such as green hydrogen and advanced manufacturing,” said Matengu.

The industry backing is substantive. Kraatz Engineering Managing Director Frank Kernstock, who chairs WeldNAM, said the sector has long felt the shortage acutely. “For years, the industry has faced a shortage of highly qualified welding coordinators. This programme addresses that gap. We are proud to invest in developing Namibian expertise that will support our growing industrial sectors. The company has sponsored two students in the first cohort,” noted Kernstock.

International Institute of Welding President Thomas Boellinghaus highlighted what makes the programme globally distinctive. “This initiative reflects strong international collaboration and support. The programme’s integration with green hydrogen applications makes it unique globally,” said Boellinghaus.

In conclusion, Paul Kah from University West in Sweden added that, “The high-level welding engineering education of this calibre remains rare in Africa. This programme is a pivotal step in positioning Namibia and the continent, within the global industrial landscape.”

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De Kock succeeds Roger O’Callaghan, who led Babcock Africa for more than two decades. His appointment follows senior leadership roles at some of the world’s most significant industrial organisations including President for Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia at FLSmidth and Vice President for South Europe, North Africa and the Middle East at Sandvik. Most recently, he served as CEO of Electrical Engineering and Renewable Energy at Reunert Limited. He holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Pretoria and an MBA from Bond University, Australia.

Three months into the role, De Kock has been direct about what drew him to the organisation and what he intends to build on. “In today’s leadership environment, alignment is everything. For me, cultural fit goes beyond surface-level similarity and is really about alignment with a company’s principles and how its people work together to deliver. Babcock’s strong people focus and collaborative culture resonate with my people-first style of leadership,” explained De Kock.

His immediate priorities centre on operational performance, consistent customer value delivery and talent development, the last of which he describes as close to his heart. Babcock’s investment in structured development programmes including its Graduate Programme and apprenticeships, provides the foundation he intends to build on. De Kock noted, “I am glad that I am joining a business that has a solid foundation for talent development. We shall build on the existing structures and programmes in order to accelerate people development thus ensuring the growth of our people and the retention of our top-performing talent.”

For a business operating across key sectors including mining, defence and engineering support services in Africa, De Kock’s appointment signals continuity of operational discipline combined with a renewed emphasis on people-led growth as the engine of long-term performance.

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Issued in April 2026, the bond was structured in two tranches: a $600 million tranche with a six year maturity and a $650 million tranche extending over eleven years. Both tranches were reportedly oversubscribed multiple times, underscoring the appetite among international investors for exposure to a country whose copper and cobalt reserves are indispensable to the global energy transition, powering electric vehicles, battery storage systems and renewable energy infrastructure worldwide.

Government officials confirmed that proceeds will be directed towards infrastructure development, energy expansion and social services, with the issuance also reflecting a deliberate shift away from reliance on concessional loans towards a broader, more diversified financing base. The bond’s success comes on the back of ongoing fiscal reforms, improved transparency and stronger domestic revenue management, steps that have measurably improved international investor sentiment.

Analysts, however, caution that borrowing costs remain elevated, reflecting the political, economic and institutional risks that continue to shape perceptions of the country. The economy’s heavy dependence on mining leaves it exposed to commodity price volatility, whilst security challenges in the eastern regions remain a persistent variable for investor confidence.

The development impact of the issuance will ultimately depend on the rigour with which proceeds are deployed and overseen. If managed with transparency and discipline, the capital raised has the potential to accelerate infrastructure delivery, expand energy access and strengthen the social programmes that build long-term economic resilience. Congo’s debut in the international bond market is, in that sense, less a destination than a starting point.

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According to the company the development signals a shift toward inclusive growth and early-stage local participation in one of Africa’s most promising frontier oil and gas markets.

In addition, the move reflects the company’s overall strategy to explore options to provide and develop liquidity for local investors, ensuring citizens are not merely spectators to the country’s hydrocarbon boom, but active participants in the value chain from the outset.

As Namibia moves toward first oil production by 2030, Sintana’s listing reinforces the importance of structuring the industry to deliver tangible benefits to citizens today. By enabling local ownership through public market access, Sintana is aligning national economic interests with upstream growth.

Meanwhile the African Energy Chamber (AEC) welcomes the listing as a strategic and forward-looking move reflecting the type of market-driven solutions needed to advance energy development across the continent.

“Sintana’s listing is a powerful example of how Africa’s energy sector can be structured to deliver real, immediate benefits to its people. Namibia is showing that local ownership does not have to wait until production – it can and should begin at the exploration stage. This is the kind of leadership and innovation we need to see across the continent,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, AEC.

Sintana Energy also holds a 7.4 percent indirect carried interest in PEL 87 – home to Blocks 2713A and 2713B, operated by Pancontinental Energy.

In March 2026, the partners received government approval to extend the First Renewal Exploration Period by 12 months to January 22, 2027. During this period, the partners will undertake an Environmental Impact Assessment, reprocess 3D seismic data and interpretation and drill an exploration well.

Furthermore, in the Walvis Basin, Sintana Energy signed a Letter of Intent for a period of exclusivity for an indirect interest in PEL 37 – currently owned and operated by Paragon Oil and Gas. Under the agreement, Sintana has until April 30, 2026 to undertake technical, commercial and legal due diligence on Paragon and PEL 37, with a view to potentially farm-into the asset.

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Speaking at the Namibia International Energy Conference (NIEC) 2026 in Windhoek, the President said the reforms are central to improving regulatory efficiency, strengthening investor confidence and ensuring that the country’s emerging offshore oil sector delivers broad-based national benefits.

The announcement comes as Namibia intensifies efforts to convert its Orange Basin discoveries into production, with policymakers and industry leaders emphasizing that legal and institutional readiness must keep pace with accelerating upstream activity.

In addition, the reform agenda is aimed at streamlining decision-making, improving sector coordination and aligning the country’s hydrocarbons strategy with Vision 2030, as major operators advance exploration, appraisal and development planning across multiple deepwater assets.

“As Namibia stands on the cusp of a new chapter of development, we are here not only to reflect on progress, but also shape the path ahead,” President Nandi-Ndaitwah said.

“The road to first oil and beyond requires investment and partners for development to be realized. Hence the need for strategic reform to give confidence to investors and citizens alike.”

The emphasis on collaboration and policy certainty was echoed throughout the NIEC Opening Ceremony, where African Energy Chamber – Strategic Partner for NIEC 2026 – Executive Chairman NJ Ayuk described Namibia’s recent exploration success as a historic shift in global perception.

He argues that the country’s challenge is no longer discovery, but execution – ensuring that legislation, investment conditions and talent development keep pace with accelerating offshore activity.

Ayuk highlighted that Namibia is now competing directly with other emerging hydrocarbon hubs for global capital, urging policymakers to sustain momentum and unlock broader participation in the sector. He said the country’s growing resource base presents a major opportunity to address energy poverty while building a competitive upstream industry.

“Namibia is a country where it was very difficult to find discoveries,” Ayuk said.

“But right now, you get some of the biggest discoveries. And who can complain about Namibia becoming the drill, baby, drill capital of Africa? Namibia deserves to use every drop of hydrocarbons to better the lives of its people. We need to pass the right legislation to empower this government to fast-track opportunities. Namibia’s aspirations can be done by the work we do in this room. Energy poverty is real, and our industry is called upon to meet this challenge.”

Stressing that Namibia’s first oil is “not the destination, but the beginning,” Ndapwilapo Selma Shimutwikeni, Chief Executive Officer of NIEC organizer RichAfrica Consultancy emphasized that resource wealth alone will not transform the economy.

She said real value will come from building surrounding industries, expanding local business participation and ensuring collaboration between investors and government to create inclusive, long-term economic development.

“Namibia stands at the threshold of its first oil. The success of Namibia’s energy sector will not be measured only by production but by how broadly it supports wider development, collaboration and the role of businesses and entrepreneurs. Collaboration is not optional. It is essential. The scale of opportunity requires trust between investors and collaboration between international companies and local governments,” Shimutwikeni said.

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Aggreko South Africa’s Country Manager, Louis Botha said the conversation has fundamentally shifted. “After prolonged instability, organisations are less willing to rely solely on the grid. In effect, reduced loadshedding hasn’t reduced demand for standby solutions, it has elevated expectations around how intelligently they are deployed. Generators are no longer seen as isolated assets but as part of a broader, orchestrated energy mix,” explained Botha.

Three structural shifts are reshaping the market. End-users are moving from temporary to semi-permanent solutions, deploying modular systems for extended periods particularly where grid expansion lags economic growth. Pure diesel solutions are being complemented or replaced by hybrid systems incorporating renewables and storage. And adoption is broadening across manufacturing, data centre support and utilities.

The regional picture is nuanced as Southern Africa’s demand is driven by the legacy of grid instability and energy transition commitments. West Africa, particularly Nigeria and Ghana, is responding to chronic grid constraints and strong industrial demand. East African countries such as Kenya and Tanzania are being pulled by rapid economic growth and renewable integration ambitions, whilst Francophone Africa’s market is shaped by accelerating infrastructure investment and electrification needs.

Solar-plus-storage has moved from early adoption to broad commercial acceptance in South Africa and is gaining traction across the continent where diesel costs are high, solar irradiance is strong and grid reliability is inconsistent. A typical deployment combines solar PV as the primary source, battery storage for smoothing and peak shaving and thermal generation as backup, a modular, site-specific model that balances reliability with emissions reduction.

Gas and dual-fuel solutions are also gaining ground, though the transition is uneven. Where pipeline infrastructure is absent, liquefied petroleum gas is playing a practical bridging role, whilst biogas and dual-fuel systems offer operators the flexibility to switch between fuels as availability and cost dynamics shift. “Overall, the market is moving towards ‘energy-as-a-service’ models, where flexibility, reliability and emissions reduction are equally important,” concluded Botha.

The post Africa’s Energy Resilience from Emergency Backup to Strategic Power Management appeared first on Namibian Mining News.

This project highlights the recent technological advancements in Weir’s Enduron jaw crusher range, which has been engineered with a primary focus on safety, productivity, and environmental sustainability. A standout feature is the redesigned hydraulic power unit that allows for push-button control over closed side setting adjustments. By removing the necessity for manual intervention during these adjustments, the system significantly mitigates safety risks for onsite operators. Furthermore, the unit’s optimised motor power and oil tank capacity are designed to reduce the overall carbon footprint, aligning with modern ecological standards in the mining industry.

The partnership also emphasises the importance of equipment longevity and local support. The inclusion of ESCO wear parts across the Enduron range is intended to extend the operational life of the machinery and reduce the frequency of maintenance shutdowns. Bezant’s technical leadership noted that the proximity of a Weir service centre was a deciding factor in the deal, as it provides a safety net for the extensive maintenance requirements typical of such plants. This collaborative approach ensures that the entire flowsheet is optimised to meet ambitious production targets while managing long-term operational risks.

“We’ve worked closely with Bezant and its partners to develop a crushing and screening solution for the Hope and Gorob project that optimises the entire flowsheet and enables them to meet their ambitious production targets,” explained Weir comminution director for Europe, Middle East and Africa, JD Singleton.

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Historically, the South African gas sector has been relatively small but strategically vital, relying heavily on the 865 km Rompco pipeline that has supplied industrial users since 2004. However, with demand standing at approximately 185 PJ annually, the transition to imported LNG signals a sharp economic shift. The required regasification infrastructure and mid-merit projects are expected to drive gas prices up by as much as 50%, a cost escalation that industrial users must prepare for even as the government finalises the 2024 Gas Master Plan. The Integrated Resource Plan 2025 sets ambitious targets, aiming for 6,000 MW of new gas-to-power capacity by 2030 and a staggering 16,000 MW by 2039. These goals position natural gas as a critical transition fuel intended to provide the flexible, dispatchable generation needed to support the integration of intermittent renewable energy sources.

Despite these policy frameworks, the execution of gas projects remains sluggish. The Gas Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (GASIPPPP) has seen its bid deadlines extended, and critical projects like the Zululand Energy Terminal in Richards Bay are currently stalled pending clarity on Eskom’s own power projects. Legal setbacks, such as the Supreme Court of Appeal halting Eskom’s Richards Bay project due to consultation issues, have further complicated the timeline. Industry leaders warn that if the current pace of development continues, the earliest commissioning for new large-scale plants may not occur until 2032. This creates a dangerous gap, as Eskom’s mid-term outlook predicts a severe baseload shortage as early as 2030, potentially leaving the South African economy in a precarious position.

In response to this potential “gas cliff,” various stakeholders are exploring alternative supply routes and collaborative models. These include connecting to Mozambique’s Matola terminal, exploring new discoveries in the Venus field in Namibia, and developing LNG-to-power projects in Durban. Industrial users have even formed an aggregator, GasHub, to leverage their combined purchasing power and negotiate competitive LNG prices. However, many experts believe that these private initiatives cannot succeed in isolation. There is a growing call for a high-level government intervention, similar to the National Energy Crisis Committee, to align departments and ensure that timelines are strictly met to maintain industrial competitiveness and energy security.

“The question is no longer whether South Africa should have gas in its energy mix, but how to move from conception to implementation.”

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