Nate's Weather Blog

Spring Pattern Moving In!

2013-04-04T10:20:00.002-04:00

Good evening, and thanks for reading today’s edition of your weather blog! One thing for sure, the one thing we haven’t been lacking this week is sunshine. This April sunshine has made the below normal temps much more tolerable. The big-time warm-up I have been talking about for days really starts to kick in tomorrow, and likely lasting for quite a while!

Tomorrow is OPENING DAY at Victory Field. Tomorrow will be a wonderful day of weather with some sun and passing cirrus clouds. We add nearly 10 degrees from today’s high temperature, all thanks to a change in wind direction – from the south! Highs range from 55-60 in most areas. If you’re headed out to the game tomorrow evening, the weather will be great. Grab the jacket and you will be in good shape. Here is your first pitch forecast:

The nice weather trend continues into Friday. Sunny skies expected for the last day of the work week. A back-door cold front will move into northeastern parts of the state, so this will mean a “slight” cool-down for those areas, only in the 50′s. The southwestern half of the state should make it near 60.

Now to the weekend. Saturday looks ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS, with the warmest high temp of the entire year so far! I am talking about high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60′s, in response to a low pressure system northwest of the area. Winds around a low pressure system are counter-clockwise, so you can see the perfect set-up to bring in those very spring-like temps.

That system brings a front towards the area Saturday night and Sunday, with a chance of some scattered showers. There will be lots of dry hours too along with the mild air hanging on.

Next week looks to stay on the warm side, at least for the first half. A stalled boundary will be stuck right over us, with rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms. There will be dry hours mixed in each day to still enjoy the spring air, but there could be some pretty impressive rain amounts between Monday and Thursday. 1-3″ appears possible. The return of rain, mild temps, and humidity should REALLY cause the trees to begin to blossom, so be on the look for that as well.

Here’s your 7-day planner.

Thanks for reading, have a great night.

Afternoon Forecast

2013-04-01T12:44:00.004-04:00

The latest look from downtown Indianapolis shows a nice looking day with partly cloudy skies. Mostly sunny skies are expected south of Indy this afternoon, with more clouds to the north. Northeast Indiana may even see a couple of sprinkles or flurries. Highs will hit the 40′s, but the wind will make it feel several degrees colder. I will have an update later today on what to expect over the next several days, which includes a big warm-up. Have a great day!

Outlook Through Second Week Of April

2013-03-31T14:15:00.003-04:00

Tonight-Tomorrow:

Scattered showers possible overnight into tomorrow morning. Rain amounts look generally light with most areas around 1/4″, an isolated 1/2″ in the heavier pockets. Easter Sunday afternoon looks nice with mixed clouds and sun, with highs right around where they topped out today. It will become breezy during the day, so it may “feel” a bit cooler. Still not a bad day.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY:

The second front rolls through Sunday night into April Fool’s Day, with a few scattered snow/rain showers. The big story will be the
very cold air that moves back into the area. Highs on Monday will only top out in the range of 38-44. BRRR!

Tuesday-Friday:

Starting on Tuesday, sunny skies return with a warming trend thanks to the higher sun angle this time of year and the trough beginning to lift away from the area. Tuesday will be cold with highs similar to Monday, but 45-50 Wednesday, 53-57 Thursday, and 56-61 Friday. There will be a system tracking south of the area next Thursday/Friday, but how far north it goes is still in question. Right now it looks to remain far enough south to keep things dry here, with just an increase in clouds.

Next Weekend & Beyond:

It looks like TRUE spring weather is going to move in during this time. Highs by next weekend will be in the 60′s, perhaps 70 by next Sunday. The following week looks to have highs in the 70′s daily, maybe flirting with 80 a day or two.

I sense a shorts and flip-flops alert ahead. It’s about time some warmer weather starts to show up, right? Thanks for reading, have a great Easter Sunday.

Warm Up Continues - More Chilly Air Next Week?

2013-03-28T16:27:00.001-04:00

Good afternoon. We have FINALLY broken out of the snowy/cloudy pattern we have been in over the past several days. In fact, you will find it hard to find any clouds in the sky today. That high sun angle took us from the mid 20′s this morning to the upper 40′s right now. Very nice day shaping up.

Tomorrow looks even warmer, but there will be added clouds with a shower chance southwest of a Bloomington to Terre Haute line tomorrow, as a system slides by to our southwest. I think the best chances of getting these showers will be closer to Vincennes and Evansville, but a few showers could make it as far north/east as Terre Haute/Bloomington.

Now to the Easter weekend, and I have GOOD news! The weather is looking spring-like, and drier than it did a few days ago. Saturday will feature some sunshine around with a gentle southeast breeze boosting temps in the upper 50′s! It will feel great. A storm system passing by will bring some showers to the area Saturday night, lasting into Sunday morning for some areas, but dry weather is expected for everyone by Sunday afternoon. Any Easter egg hunts you may have planned should be in good shape for the most part.

Don’t get too used to it, a strong push of chilly air is expected again through the middle of next week. Some areas may not get out of the 30′s for HIGHS by next Tuesday. A warming trend is expected for the second half of next week.

Thanks for reading, have a great evening!

Interesting Weekend Forecast - Heavy Snow??

2013-03-21T21:44:00.001-04:00

Thanks for stopping by my new blog! Wow, what a cold start to spring to say the least. Indy dropped to 16 this morning, with “feel-like” readings in the single digits. That would be considered very cold and below average in January, yet alone in late March! I would do almost anything right now to forecast a huge warm-up, but I don’t see that happening anytime soon. Yes we do warm in the 40′s and perhaps 50′s for our southern areas Saturday, but that’s only a temporary warm-up and still is below normal – so that doesn’t count!

A storm system is expected to arrive on Sunday, and this one has potential to bring heavy snow to parts of Indiana and the Ohio Valley. While the models are slowly getting into better agreement, the track is still not set in stone by any means.

The WPC puts out snowfall risk maps 3 days in advance, and shows the probabilities for at least 4″, 8″, and 12″. Here are these probability maps…

These maps are likely to have some changes to them over the next couple of days. Those could shift farther north or south depending on where the TRACK of the system is.

Now let’s look over a few models and what they are showing. Before I show the snowfall potential from the models, please remember that these models do not take into account the warmer surface temps and strong radiation this time of year due to higher sun angle. Since it looks like quite a bit of the snow will fall while it’s daylight, keep those factors in mind!

GFS (shown below) has remained more consistent today on a farther south trend. The latest run of this model has several inches of snow from Indy southward, with a sharp cut-off to the north.

NAM (shown below) is almost identical to GFS on the track, but is heavier on amounts.

The Canadian & European models (not shown) are farther north with the track putting central and northern Indiana in the bullseye for snow, with much less for southern parts of the state. That can’t be ignored, but I think we are in a pattern that should favor the farther south track that the GFS & NAM are showing.

I decided to post my “early” thoughts on POTENTIAL snow accumulations on Sunday.(below) I cannot stress enough how much of a key factor the TRACK of the storm is. Even a slight shift in the track will ultimately change how much snow falls in your backyard.

Model runs tomorrow afternoon/evening should get the first good weather balloon sampling of the storm, which means the models should begin to all come to a consensus and I should be able to give better details on how much snow will fall in your area. Thanks for reading and following my weather updates, have a great night!

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Messy Pattern!

2013-03-13T14:41:00.002-04:00

Several systems to track over the next several days. Some with rain, some with snow. Location will be key on all these systems.

We have a disturbance kicking off widespread convective snow showers this afternoon across the entire Ohio Valley. A lot of this is melting because of it being daytime, and mid-March, but the heavier bursts are putting down quick coatings. Watch out for rapidly changing conditions when your out this afternoon. These will dissipate after sunset.

The next system arrives later tomorrow. This one continues to trend colder - so light snow is looking more likely with this one for more areas. Here is the latest GFS for tomorrow evening. The blue line is usually the main rain/snow line.

With that said, the track and the timing is KEY for potential snow accumulations for your area. Right now, this looks to move in by the evening rush hour. Most of this will be melting on contact. As dusk approaches, the snow may begin to stick on grassy surfaces, but the system will also begin to exit near that time. Right now, I think the best chances of getting a quick inch or so would be areas along and east of I-65. Will have to fine-tune this forecast tomorrow, but overall-not a huge deal anyway.

We try to get some warmer air in here Friday, with the return of some sunshine. A temperature range from near 60 in southern Indiana, low 50's central, and upper 40's north looks good at this time. Friday is also the St. Patrick's Parade in downtown Indy. The parade starts at 11:30. Temperatures will probably be in the low 40's at that time, along with a breeze. Dress accordingly, but it could be worse! It will actually be very warm across the Plains, but just when it looks like it's headed our way, it never makes it here as a cold front moves in from the northwest flow keeping that warm air from ever really surging into Indiana. The map posted below is the GFS 850mb temperature forecast for Friday. I circled the much warmer air mass just missing us to our west.

The weekend will feature a big temperature difference north to south across the state. Highs could range from the 50's in southern Indiana to the 30's in northern Indiana, as a front stalls out over southern Indiana. A wave of showers looks possible early Saturday, then a more organized system Sunday into Monday to affect mainly the southern part of Indiana. The GFS indicates the northern part of the precip shield could bring some light snow mixed with the rain to parts of southern Indiana Sunday night. European is the farthest north and says a MAJOR snow storm for central and northern parts of Indiana. It's an interesting solution and because of the model's accuracy, I don't want to totally ignore it. (Map posted below is the GFS late Sunday).

The next issue is the main storm system out of all of later Monday into Tuesday. Widespread rain looks likely Monday afternoon, then perhaps changing to light snow late Monday night.

So there's the forecast to the best details as I can. I hope that helps you to better plan the next several days! Thanks for reading.

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SPRING-LIKE SUNDAY - CHILLY PATTERN RESUMES MONDAY

2013-03-09T20:52:00.001-05:00

Wow! What a change in the air today. Wasn't it nice to step outside without freezing!!? If you thought today felt great, let's just say tomorrow's temps may blow your mind. :)

Check out this pic of the sunset I took this evening. The perfect combo of clouds and sun really helped make for a breath-taking sky in southern Indiana.

For tomorrow's forecast, there has been quite a bit of a change from previous forecasts. The arrival of the system is slowing down, in fact so much, that we will likely get most (if not all) of Sunday mainly rain-free. I do think areas especially north of I-70 will see a few showers, but for the most part it's trending towards a dry forecast. This means the temperature forecast is now a handful of degrees warmer. Here is the forecast for a few select cities across the state tomorrow:

Be sure to get out and enjoy the brief, much-deserved warm-up!

Rain then arrives Sunday night to spoil the warm temps. There could be some .50-1" totals, but some areas will only get .25"-.50". Here is HPC's rainfall forecast:

The rain will linger into the day Monday, with a pretty big drop in temps! Temperatures will fall during the day into the 40's!

The rest of the week looks to have below-normal temps. The models are showing a pretty chilly air mass coming in Wednesday. Highs on that day will probably stick in the 30's for areas along/north of I-70, with 40's south. A few flurries can't be ruled out either. Here is a look at the GFS model for Wednesday:

Temps may slowly moderate a bit for the end of the week/weekend, but still below-average temps for mid-March standards. A few more weak systems may produce a couple periods of light snow/rain, but too early to nail those down. Certainly no "real" spring weather by any stretch after tomorrow! There are signs though that some warmer air may try to build in for the later part of the month. We gotta shake out of this below normal temp pattern that we have been in since February at some point.

**DON'T FORGET TO MOVE YOUR CLOCKS AHEAD 1 HOUR TONIGHT**!!

Thanks for reading my blog!

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Latest On Winter Storm

2013-03-04T18:13:00.001-05:00

Good afternoon! All eyes on the winter storm headed our way, that will have impacts all across the state.

Check out all the winter storm warnings/advisories from the NWS:

Now let's talk about what to expect! Precipitation is expected to develop later tonight, as rain for Indianapolis and points south. Areas north will have a wintry mix for the morning commute. During the day, plain rain is expected south of I-70. North of that, a wintry mix will be possible, with far northern Indiana staying all snow. Due to temperatures mainly above freezing most of the day, road conditions should be in decent shape. Around 4/5pm, I expect the full changeover to snow in central Indiana. The rain/snow changeover will continue from northwest to southeast through the evening. Road conditions will deteriorate through the evening and night, and likely to have major impacts to the Wednesday morning commute. I'm sure there will be many school delays/closings, especially for areas north of Indianapolis. Of all times, this is ISTEP week for Indiana schools, so this is not good timing. If you have any questions about the forecast for your specific area, do not hesitate to ask! Here is my snow-cast for this winter storm:

Hang in there, highs soar in the 50's Friday and the weekend. That's something to look forward to. :)

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Tracking A Winter Storm For Northern Indiana Tomorrow - Snow Chances For Everyone Mid-Week

2013-02-25T21:25:00.001-05:00

Good evening. The forecast is very complicated for tomorrow, no doubt about that. Northern Indiana is going to get hit with ice and snow, with major impacts to travel likely if your headed toward the northern 1/3rd of the state tomorrow.

Here is a look at the GFS through the day tomorrow. Notice it keeps Indy just warm enough for rain. This model indicates north-central Indiana getting ice in the morning before switching to rain for a while during the afternoon. Northern Indiana will stay cold enough for snow, possibly mixing with ice.

Based on that, here is my thinking for tomorrow. The precipitation moves in after 3/4am. I think the areas in the pink could have impacts with some freezing rain for the morning rush hour. I do think most of the counties in pink switch over to rain for a time tomorrow. The counties in blue will be snow, possibly mixed with sleet and ice for a time. Several inches of snow likely for South Bend and Gary. My forecast matches up with the current winter weather advisory issued by the National Weather Service for all counties in the pink and blue shadings.

If your a snow-lover not in the area getting snow with this system, we are NOT done. The system stalls out tomorrow night near Lake Erie, with colder air wrapping around the system. Rain showers will change to snow showers gradually from northwest to southeast late tomorrow night. This process may take until Wednesday morning for southern Indiana.

Wednesday looks quite snowy. Widespread snow showers are likely for the entire state, with many areas likely to see a white ground at some point. The good part is temperatures will be above freezing, so roads may be in decent shape despite the snow showers. Locally heavy bands are possible, especially for areas north of I-70. Right now, I think areas along and north of I-70 could see anywhere from 1-3" (closer to 1-2" for Indy metro). That will be the additional accumulation on top of what falls tomorrow for northern Indiana. Southern Indiana could see localized 1" amounts.

The pattern ahead looks quite cold and perhaps snowy for the first half of March. There are two other systems to watch closely (one possibly around March 6th, and the second around March 10th). The CPC is calling for a warmer than normal March for the entire area. I do NOT see any support to their thinking. The data points to much below normal temperatures for the next couple weeks at least. I guess we'll wait and see.

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Wintry MESS Likely Thursday Night!

2013-02-19T14:33:00.004-05:00

Hard to believe 24 hours ago from right now temperatures were around 60 degrees with sunshine, to the 20's now with snow showers! Days like yesterday had me craving for spring weather to stay, and for winter to get out of here! The pattern ahead has the word "winter" written all over it. Sorry spring weather lovers, just have patience. :)

The snow showers out there today will not amount to much, as the bigger story is the cold weather. We clear out tonight, with temperatures in the lower teens tomorrow morning! ONLY 20's for highs tomorrow, which is way below the average high in the 40's. At least we should see sunshine, and plenty of it.

The main point of this blog is about the stuff coming in Thursday night. Let's go over a couple computer models and what they are showing, then I will explain my thoughts.

GFS -

Here is a look at the snowfall accumulation from the same model:

If that model comes to fruition, that would mean snow and freezing rain for Indy, with more snow than ice north. For southern Indiana, this model indicates freezing rain being the big threat before changing to ran towards morning.

NAM -

Here is what the same model shows for snowfall accumulations:

Obviously this model is warmer than the GFS. This model indicates mainly rain for southern Indiana, with ice the main threat in central Indiana, with snow/sleet/ice mixed for northern Indiana.

MY THOUGHTS: I think it's safe to say the NAM model looks just too warm for this event. Arctic air is in place ahead of this event, and I just don't see enough warming that southern Indiana misses out on the ice. I think ALL of Indiana will get different forms of wintry precipitation. The GFS model looks like the way to go, but I think that that model still may be a bit too warm. Models tend to overdue warm air in these set-ups. Here is my current thinking:

Central Indiana: Starts as snow, with a quick 1-2" possible. As warm air overrides the surface, snow changes over to sleet and freezing rain. A tenth or a little more of ice would be possible on top of the snow.

Southern Indiana: Starts as a wintry mix, then a period of plain freezing rain, before switching to all rain during the night. Ice accumulations of .10" or a bit more possible before the switch to rain late in the night.

Northern Indiana: SNOW is the main precipitation type. Areas near Kokomo, Lafayette, Muncie, Peru will probably switch to freezing rain and sleet by Friday morning as the warmer air tries to build in. Anywhere from 1-3" seems likely in this area

BOTTOM LINE: No matter what, we aren't talking high precipitation amounts, but this will cause MAJOR travel headaches. If you have travel plans during this time, stay up to date to the forecast. If the current forecast holds, I would see winter weather advisories and other winter headlines coming out ahead of this system.

Cold Weekend - Very Active Next Week

2013-02-16T11:43:00.000-05:00

Thanks for stopping by the blog!! No doubt about it, it is a COLD day out! Temperatures today only warm a few more degrees out there, in the upper 20's. Add in the breeze, it will feel even colder. Still some instability left for isolated snow showers/flurries, but I don't expect accumulations locally. However, much different story for extreme northern Indiana counties! Lake-effect snow will continue through tomorrow morning, with decent snow totals on top of what has already fallen. The counties outlined in light blue are under a lake effect snow advisory until 4am Sunday EST.

A bit milder air gradually works in by tomorrow, with temperatures hitting the 30's, to near 40 south. South winds race in ahead of the system for Monday, with highs surging in the 50's south of Indy, with 40's in northern Indiana. Very wet for President's Day afternoon/night, with colder air changing the rain briefly to snow, but little accumulation expected. Cold/dry weather can be expected Tuesday & Wednesday before the next storm arrives Thursday/Friday. I am watching this one closely, this has the potential to be a winter storm for parts of the state. STAY TUNED!

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TODAY'S BLOG: Snowy Photos From Southern Indiana Today

2013-02-13T14:40:00.003-05:00

A quick hitting system produced accumulating snow across southern Indiana this morning, mainly reports of 1-3". Even a couple 4" reports!! Until the event unfolded, I did not expect accumulations from this. Why? Well, because the temperatures this morning were in the upper 30's to near 40 across southern Indiana. As the precipitation unfolded, heavy bands of precipitation developed, and dynamic cooling from this system allowed everything to fall as snow, and temperatures to drop several degrees to near freezing. CHECK OUT these pics posted below. These are all photos that were posted on the WDRB Weather page on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/WDRBWeather

FRENCH LICK, IN

PEKIN, IN

SELLERSBURG, IN

CRANDALL, IN

LEOTA, IN

UNDERWOOD:

Tracking East Coast Blizzard - A Look At the Forecast Ahead Locally!

2013-02-08T22:05:00.002-05:00

Good evening! The main weather story continues to be the raging blizzard (Winter Storm Nemo) that has basically shut down the northeast U.S! This area basically had a NO winter last year, and boy they are making up fast! Check out all that snow on live radar..

Here's the deal. Wind gusting near 60 mph in Boston, thunder, lightning, to go along with near 3 feet of snow by time the storm moves out. Boston is likely to see 2-4" an HOUR for most of the night! The entire state of Massachusetts is under a NO TRAVEL ban. Some areas here at 9pm in Connecticut and Rhode Island already over a foot, and the snow just started this afternoon. New York City is also being slammed too, with perhaps up to 10" down in the city by tomorrow, but compared to what Boston is getting, New York dodges a bullet. This is quite the storm to say the least! The images below are from Accuweather...

Now to the weather locally. Tomorrow looks like a nice February day, with temperatures slightly above normal in the low 40's, along with a nice, sunny sky. A great day to do just about anything outdoors.

Our next storm system to impact Indiana moves in for the second half of the weekend. The low pressure tracks well northwest of us, placing the entire area in the warm sector, meaning a south wind, warming temps, and rain/thunder likely by Sunday afternoon, and continuing through the night. As of now, .50-.75" area-wide looks like a good forecast. Here is how the GFS model handles this system...

After that, it looks like a more wintry pattern sets back in. Temperatures most of next week will be close to normal, but a bigger cold push of air looks possible at some point around the end of next week, and the colder weather pattern may hold through the second half of February. The GFS wants to bring some light snow as close as southern Indiana for Wednesday of next week, but the EURO model disagrees. Just have to keep an eye on model trends over the next few days. Will we have more snow chances with the colder air for the middle/end of the month? It looks like an active storm track is developing across the south during this time, which could put our area in an interesting spot for the potential of snow makers. We will have to wait until we get there for the details, but looking more favorable for SNOW lovers out there. :)

Thanks for reading my blog! Hope everyone has a great weekend. God bless!

2013-02-06T14:58:00.002-05:00

AFTERNOON OUTLOOK.. Talk about a battle between clouds and blue sky! The skies are sunny across western & northern Indiana, but a rather gloomy sky overhead south and east of Indy, into much of southeastern Indiana. It is tough to get clouds to erode quickly this time of year due to the low sun angle, but I will stay optimistic that everyone sees at least some sun before the day is gone.

SYSTEM TO WATCH TOMORROW.. After a mild Thursday, a line of showers looks to move across the state tomorrow evening. As colder air filters in during the night, the rain will change to snow briefly mainly north of I-70. Far northern Indiana could see accumulating snow, perhaps 1-3" for South Bend, Goshen areas, then little to no accumulation for the rest of the area. Right now I don't expect much if any accumulating snow in central Indiana.

DRY START TO WEEKEND, WARMER & WET END? Great weather moves in for Friday and Saturday, with sunshine and temps near average. Warmer temperatures and rain looks likely later Sunday into Monday. I wouldn't rule out a couple thunderstorms for southern Indiana with this pattern set-up. Right now severe weather doesn't look too likely. Rainfall potential for now doesn't look too impressive locally, but heavy rains for parts of the south.

HISTORIC, MAJOR SNOWSTORM HEADED FOR THE NORTH-EAST.. A HUGE nor'easter is looking likely Friday-Friday night for the northeast. Winds gusting over 70 mph and snow up to 2-4 FEET deep is looking possible for areas from Boston up to Maine. CRAZY, CRAZY, CRAZY stuff. Definitely something to watch, especially if you have any travel plans or family in that area.

VALENTINE'S DAY SNOWSTORM FOR INDIANA?.. Well that is exactly what the GFS & ECMWF models are showing (attached below) for Indiana! Lots can change but definitely something to watch for all the snow-lovers dying for one more good storm before spring! :)

Thanks for reading, have a great rest of the day.

Accumulating Snow This Weekend!

2013-02-01T15:02:00.001-05:00

B.O.T.S everyone!! (Bring On The Snow) After a snowy Thursday, the arctic air has arrived, and dangerous wind chills have accompanied it.

So let's get to the forecast. We are tracking a couple of "clipper" systems this weekend, and accumulating snows are likely. The NWS office out of Louisville has issued a Winter Weather Advisory. (counties in blue) I think more counties across central/northern Indiana should be added to the advisory. When/if they issue more advisories, I will update via Facebook/Twitter.

TIMING: It appears we are dealing with two rounds of snow. One round later tonight through mid-day Saturday, and round two hits Saturday night into early Sunday.

IMPACTS: Roads are likely to be slick when the snow falls, but I don't think people need to cancel their plans completely. There will be dry time especially tomorrow afternoon and evening before round #2 moves in. Plus, INDOT crews usually do a great job keeping the roads clean, am I right!? :)

TOTALS: When all is said and done, here is what I expect for snowfall totals.

For those in central and northern Indiana that missed out on the snow yesterday, you will not be left out.

**This forecast still has some uncertainty as clipper systems are tricky to forecast. Changes to the forecast are still possible between now and tomorrow.**

Thanks for stopping by the blog. Enjoy the rest of your day.

HEAVY SNOW BURST WITH ARCTIC AIR

2013-01-31T21:37:00.000-05:00

SNOW BURSTS & SLICK ROADS... What a way to return to winter after a spring-like first half of the week! The set-up today is very similar to a summer day. Snow bursts and squalls developed under the unstable atmosphere today, and peeks of sun from time to time fueled these heavy bands that produced white-out conditions in spots this afternoon and evening. Some areas saw a few flakes, while other spots receive an inch or more. A clipper system helped enhance the snowfall south of I-70 and all across southern Indiana this evening. Snow is still falling pretty hard in parts of extreme southern Indiana. The counties in blue across southern Indiana are under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 2am. Many of these counties should end up between 1-2" of snow. Bottom line, do not travel unless it is necessary.

The snow showers continue off/on until late tonight, then mainly dry by the morning commute. However, the roads will likely be SLICK. Allow yourself extra time to reach your destination. Not only that, dangerously cold as well. Temps tomorrow morning will be in the single digits, with wind chills BELOW ZERO. Plenty of school delays already coming in for tomorrow morning.

BIGGER SNOWS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... Based on the latest data, some areas will be dealing with decent snow amounts this weekend. Several disturbances bring snow chances off and on Saturday through Sunday. The biggest hit of snowfall looks to be late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon, then off/on snow showers lasting through Sunday.

HOW MUCH? Here is my early GUESS on snow potential..

That is still subject to change, so keep it here. I will have another blog update later tomorrow with the latest on the weekend snow potential.

Thanks for stopping by! Have a great night.

Weather Gone Crazy!

2013-01-28T21:40:00.002-05:00

To say this is one busy forecast is an understatement. Mother nature is very moody, so expect wild and drastic changes in the weather through the next several days. Whatever weather floats your boat, we will have it at some point this week.

RECORD WARMTH & SEVERE STORMS... Here are the latest severe weather maps from the SPC.

The severe risk comes for late tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning, when a powerful line of storms pushes through the state. As mentioned yesterday, the winds aloft are incredibly strong, and it's possible for the strongest storms to tap into these winds and produce damaging winds.

This is not a widespread severe weather outbreak, but isolated severe storms producing damaging winds are a real possibility. I have to mention that an isolated tornado isn't out of the question either. The timing of these storms moving across the state from west to east looks to be from 1-5am.

On another note, a flood watch is in effect for all of central Indiana, with the potential for 1-3" of rain. Much of this falls tomorrow night, so keep this in mind. The Wednesday morning commute to work could be a mess with flooding and heavy rains/storms still in the area at that time.

I can't forget to mention the warmth for tomorrow! I think southern Indiana has a real chance to hit 70, especially if the sun comes out during the afternoon. I think central/northern Indiana stays stuck in the clouds, rain longer through the day, but breaks in the rain during the afternoon. Highs across the rest of Indiana reach the low/middle 60's!

MUCH COLDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... Temperatures will begin to tumble during the afternoon Wednesday, with the potential for rain changing to snow showers during the afternoon and evening. Northern parts of the state could even get a light accumulation. A day that starts with spring temps and severe storms ends with snow. Not crazy or anything. :)

NOW THE ARCTIC AIR... The cold air continues to filter in through the end of the week. Highs will drop in the 20's for many areas Thursday and Friday, and some spots by Friday morning will be back in the single digits!

SNOW CHANCES... There may be a few flurries Thursday night, but the main system of notice is a clipper coming in Saturday. Some of the models hint at some snow accumulations during this time. Check out the latest GFS:

That model wants to bring 1-2" of snow across much of the Ohio Valley Saturday. Still waaaay too early to even know if this system is legit or not, so let's worry more about this when we get there.

Lots of weather to get through. I will have more updates as needed on my Facebook weather page. If you haven't "liked" it yet, the link to my page is at the top of the website. Have a great night, and thanks for reading.

Wild Weather Pattern For The Next Week!

2013-01-26T21:59:00.004-05:00

Good evening. Finally most areas saw sunny skies today, and high temperatures getting closer to normal. The warming trend continues for the next several days, as a very active period of weather takes over.

We have a tricky situation setting up for tomorrow evening. As precipitation arrives, temperatures at the surface from Indy northward will near freezing. It appears an icing event is likely. Northern Indiana is under a winter weather advisory.

I think Indy could see a period of ice from 4-8pm, but I think Indy may be lucky enough to dodge a bullet when it comes to the ice. *This is a set-up where a degree or two could make all the difference.* It is NORTH of Indy where major travel problems could occur during the evening and part of the overnight, especially the farther north you go. It sure doesn't take much ice to cause MAJOR travel problems. Please be on alert for this tomorrow afternoon/evening from Indianapolis and points north. Watch those thermometers as well, that will be key!

The warmer air takes over overnight tomorrow, and temperatures by early Monday morning will make it in the low 40's, ensuring anything that falls will be rain. The rain comes in waves for Monday, with a south breeze kicking in and highs soaring into the upper 40's north to middle 50's south.

A STRONG warm-up on southerly winds takes hold on Tuesday, with Indiana positioned south of a warm front and east of a cold front, which is the prime spot to be in for warm temps! Temperatures soar to 20+ degrees warmer than normal across the state, which puts highs ranging from the middle 50's north to middle 60's in southern Indiana.

While scattered showers/thunder are possible at anytime during the day Tuesday, I don't think it will be a washout. Attention turns to overnight Tuesday for intense heavy rains, high winds, and a few thunderstorms. Check out the wind shear with this system on the graphic below. Despite very little instability considering the front swings through during the night, these high winds aloft are sufficient enough to support a isolated damaging wind threat.

After that, temperatures start to tumble again. Look for temperatures starting to fall by Wednesday afternoon, with some scattered shower activity possible switching to snow showers Wednesday night, as harsh January reality comes rushing back in.

An arctic air mass will take over again late next week, with highs temps back in the 20's, and lows in the teens. We may have to watch for some snow showers during this time as well. (Thursday-Saturday)

Here is the 7 day forecast. To say the next week is a roller coaster ride would be an understatement. Buckle up and enjoy the ride!

Thanks for reading the blog. Have a terrific night.

Latest On Friday's Snow Potential

2013-01-23T21:10:00.001-05:00

I have been talking about a storm system late this week for several days now. A couple of days ago, it looked as if this could become a winter storm for the area. The models have backed off that idea since yesterday, and it now looks like light snow will be possible.

There are two systems passing through on Friday. One to the north, and one to the south. They look to remain separate, so in turn, this is not a big deal for us, but not a no show.

Model Analysis:
Let's start with the GFS, or American model. It is doing a good job with the system, in my opinion. It shows precipitation breaking out near daybreak Friday, then steady light snow lasting through early afternoon. The GFS for noon Friday actually shows widespread light to moderate snow falling over the state.

Here is what the model shows for snow accumulations:

Next, let's look at the NAM. Here is what the model shows for noon Friday.

There is a pretty big difference between the GFS and NAM. The NAM keeps the two systems separate like all the other models, but it wants to keep much of central Indiana totally dry. The model spits out light accumulations for northern and southern Indiana, and central Indiana right in between the two systems staying dry.

The European model paints a general inch of snow across the entire state.

My thoughts: When forecasting, it is important to use common sense, notice trends such as what weather model(s) have been more reliable as of late, along with pattern recognition. The GFS has actually done a pretty good job here recently, and the European always does a good job. So based on those two models, it looks plausible that light snow accumulations on the order of 1-2" looks likely for Friday. The NAM model is the outlier for my forecast. *Just because we are talking light accumulations, doesn't mean travel won't be greatly impacted. With arctic air still in place, surface temperatures are very cold, and all snow that falls will stick. I think slick roads are likely when the snow hits Friday, even if it's just light flurries coming down at times. *

Timing: Snow flurries look to begin during the pre-dawn hours of Friday, 4-7 am, then several hours of steady, light snow look likely from 8am-1pm. This will be a very fast moving system.

Thanks for reading, have a great night. God bless!

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Extremely Cold Air - Snow Chances This Week

2013-01-20T22:04:00.001-05:00

EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES...

The arctic air continues to move into the Hoosier state. The temperatures over the next few days will be the coldest in two years, and a couple of mornings will be dangerously cold factoring in wind chills. How do wind chills as low as 15 below zero sound? That is certainly possible by tomorrow evening and night. Temperatures tonight fall into the teens, stay there all day tomorrow, then the combo of clear skies and lighter winds set the stage for the extreme arctic cold Tuesday morning. Lows could fall close to zero degrees. Highs on Tuesday will slowly make it into the teens, but back in the single digits Tuesday night. Get ready to put your furnace in over-drive!!

SNOW CHANCES...

While flurries are possible off and on between now and Tuesday night, accumulations will be little to none, and shouldn't cause any travel problems.

The area with the biggest snow chance will be extreme northern Indiana. The lake-effect snow machine will get going, and some areas like South Bend, Goshen and points northward could see several inches if the bands set-up just right.

Somewhat milder air should try to work in during the day Wednesday, with more tolerable high temperatures in the 20's. This now leads to the fun part of the forecast. The potential for accumulating snow!

A storm system is brewing Thursday into Friday. This has been on the models for a few days now, but the models are struggling with the track, and how much cold air. The models are notorious for pushing out arctic air masses too quick. I think the models will trend a bit colder and farther south with the track as we get closer. This storm has the potential to bring ice, and several inches of snow to the state. The current model runs would suggest it would get warm enough for a rain/snow/ice mix on Thursday, then a switch to all snow overnight Thursday into Friday. Here is the area where I think the highest chances are for a decent snowfall for now. That may need pushed south or even north a bit as we get closer.

I will have updates on that system over the next few days. It needs to be watched CLOSELY. Behind that system, another decent shot of cold air appears likely to begin next weekend.

Thanks for reading. Have a great night, God bless.

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POLAR PLUNGE IS ALMOST HERE - SNOW CHANCES TOO!

2013-01-19T22:01:00.002-05:00

I hope everyone was able to enjoy the awesome weather we had out there today. Temps in the 50's and a brilliant blue sky is hard to come by in January. The bad part is.. the warmer it felt today, the colder it will feel over the next week.

Check out the current temperature map across the country. Notice the cold air has reached south of the Canada, and is continuing it's trip to the Hoosier state.

We will begin to feel the cold air later tonight/tomorrow, with a cold front moving through. Temperatures from the morning low to afternoon high tomorrow will be similar, despite some sun, due to brisk northwest winds driving in the colder air. Temperatures will be in the upper 20's and low 30's.

Arctic air (sub-zero lows)? Get ready for a visit from the arctic Monday and Tuesday, which is a guest that never showed up last year. Highs for Monday will be a struggle to even reach 20, and all areas should stay in the teens Tuesday. Those are high temperatures! Monday night looks to be the coldest night with low temperatures dropping down between -3 to 3 above if we can get the skies to clear which I think will happen. Lows Tuesday night will again drop to single digits. Get ready for your furnace to work in overdrive!!

How about snow chances? There has been quite a bit of debate about whether we will get any snow with the bitter cold. The chances of snow are never huge locally when the air gets so cold, because the colder it gets, the drier the air gets as well. However, this is a prime set-up for lake-effect snow for northern Indiana. Some spots up there could even get a few inches with the lake-effect bands. Here in central and southern Indiana, while flurries locally are possible at any time Monday and Tuesday, it appears a weak clipper system moving through Tuesday night will bring the best chance of getting any snow with the arctic air. I don't see anything but a dusting with that for now.

The forecast towards the end of next week looks very interesting and quite challenging to say the least. The models have been showing a system moving through the region during the Thursday/Friday, but the track and how much we warm up remain the big questions. One thing I have learned about forecasting, is that the computer models like to get rid of arctic air way faster than usually is the case. In these set-ups, it is best to use common sense, and watch the model trends. The European model shows no warm-up, keeps the cold air intact, and tracking the storm system south of us, bringing several inches of snow to the state.

The GFS does not agree with the Euro right now, and wants to warm us up, and track the system to the lakes. This set-up would mean a rain to snow situation, with most of the accumulating snow staying in northern Indiana and Michigan.

So now you ask, which model is right? Well in this case, I have to use common sense forecasting and go by what scenario seems more realistic to the weather pattern. Right now the colder/snowy Euro solution seems to fit the pattern much better, as the GFS showing a system tracking off to our north right after a shot of bitter cold air just doesn't make sense. So right now, I think the chances of snow and little or no warm-up for the next week is likely. The trends in the models over the next few days will be interesting, but I feel like the GFS should trend colder towards the Euro solution as we get closer. Expect at least some changes so continue to check back! Thanks for reading.

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Alabama Winter Storm - Brief Weekend Warm-Up Before Polar Plunge Early Next Week!

2013-01-17T15:21:00.003-05:00

Sorry about not posting any blogs in a while. I've been busy with school, and my WiFi at home has not been working. Snow continues to fall in unusual places, in the DEEP SOUTH! Winter storm warnings continue for parts of Mississippi, Alabama, all the way up to the mid-Atlantic. Check out this picture from the campus at University of Alabama..

I found this picture on Facebook implying to how folks in the south are dealing with the snow. Well actually, it's pretty much implies for around here, too. ;)

If your a snow-lover here in Indiana, the chances of getting snow anytime soon is quite small. Yes some flurries in the extended forecast, but by no means a snowstorm.

A mini warm-up is on the way for the next couple days, before the bottom falls out. Highs tomorrow and Saturday should be above average, in the 40's. Southern Indiana has a shot at 50-53 for Saturday afternoon with strong WAA (warm air advection)

The colder air begins to come down for Sunday, with high temperatures for Sunday 10-20 degrees colder than Saturday.

The REAL COLD STUFF arrives Monday and Tuesday. A true arctic air mass will come in from Canada, with high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday in the teens for many areas, and low temps in the single digits! Watch the time-frame from Monday through Tuesday for a little system to bring some LIGHT snow action to the area. Check out the ECMWF for next Tuesday, just look at that cold air over our area! BRRR is right!

However, this is not a sustained bitter cold pattern. Temperatures could soar above freezing by the end of the week!

Thanks for reading! Have a great rest of your day. God bless.

60's on the way - flooding this weekend?

2013-01-10T22:07:00.002-05:00

WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH...

Can you find the warm front? :) Check out the latest temperature map. That's right! 60's in southwest Indiana, and 30's to the northeast. That is one big temperature spread.

Temperatures are only going up from here. Temperatures will be in the 50's area-wide by tomorrow morning. Highs tomorrow hit the 60's!

HOW ABOUT RAIN CHANCES?

A round of very intense rainfall looks to move through between 3-7am across the state. Areas south of I-70 may see a couple thunderstorms as well. However, no severe weather likely. Up to 1" of rain area wide possible from now through tomorrow morning.

Friday afternoon looks GREAT! We we should see some breaks in the clouds, (ESP SOUTH AND WEST OF INDY) with breezy conditions and highs warming in the 60's! It's been a while since we have seen temps that warm, and since it has been so cold lately, it will feel more like 70's for sure.

WEEKEND RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE...

Saturday looks to start dry, but it won't end that way! The next system will work in from the south by Saturday afternoon/evening. Central and northern Indiana may stay dry until late afternoon, with the rain first arriving in southern Indiana. With the warm southerly flow, highs will once again warm in the 60's.

Widespread heavy rains are a good bet overnight Saturday through Sunday. This system will bring 2" or more of rain potentially, with the total between now and Sunday night of 2-5" of rain, with up to 6" in parts of southern Indiana. You add that to the already soggy ground from nearly a foot of melted snow, flooding could be a major issue for some areas, especially those lowland areas, and those near rivers/creeks. The map shown below is the HPC rainfall forecast between now and early next week..

If you live in a flood-proned area, I think it would be a good idea to get some sandbags. Better safe than sorry for sure!

The weather will turn much colder again next week, with a sneaky system that will need watched to bring a round of wintry weather to parts of the Ohio Valley early next week.

Thanks for reading the blog. Have a great rest of the evening.

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Warm Temps and Heavy Rains On The Way

2013-01-07T22:12:00.003-05:00

HUGE WARM-UP STILL ON THE WAY...

I put together the GFS temperature maps for the next several days, you can see the progression of the warm-up....

I think the temperature forecast is tricky for the next couple days considering the snow still on the ground, but I think we should still manage to reach the 40's for highs in many areas tomorrow and Wednesday. By Thursday, parts of southern Indiana reach the 50's, with central and north in the 40's. Temps reach the 50's and 60's Friday and Saturday!!!

RAIN CHANCES/FLOODING POTENTIAL...

Dry weather is the rule through Wednesday, then it's a WET forecast! Widespread rains and will work south to north across the state throughout the day Thursday into Thursday night. With this system alone up to 1" of rain is possible. This is the HPC rainfall potential through Friday.

Other than a spotty shower, much of Friday and early Saturday will be all about the warmth!! Our next system arrives Saturday during the day right into Sunday. This system will track toward the Lakes, with the warmth rain, and thunder ahead of it, then a sharp drop in temperatures later Sunday, as much colder air rushes in behind the system. With that system 1-2" of rain will be possible as well. With all that said including Thursday's storm system, check out how much water could accumulate between now and then...

That's a widespread 2-3" of rainfall. I certainly think there will be higher totals closer to the Ohio River, with the already melting snow pack plus the heavy rain, flood prone areas need to keep a close eye on future forecasts. Thanks for reading!

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Wintry Weather For Sunday - Warmer Next Week

2013-01-05T21:25:00.000-05:00

Good evening! Hope everyone has had a great Saturday. Before I get on to the weather, I want to say thanks for all the kind words and prayers for my sister, Brittany. They mean more than I could ever tell you or show you. We are faced with very tough decisions that need made, and need continued prayers for her health, and wisdom to go in the right direction.

A day that started with sunshine quickly turned cloudy, and some areas saw scattered showers and snow move through. There is still a risk of spotty mixed precipitation, but more than likely there will be no travel problems out there.

Sunday isn't looking like a very nice weather day out there. There will be very scattered light mixed precipitation, with temperatures holding steady in the low 30's, perhaps dropping into the 20's in some areas late in the day. A gusty west wind will make it feel much colder. A good day to stay inside and watch the Colts. By the way if your wondering about the weather in Baltimore for the game, the weather looks dry with temperatures in the 40's during the game.

We have some great weather moving in for the beginning of the week, with sunshine returning, and a warm-up. We start off Monday morning in the teens for many areas, but sunshine and a southwest wind will boost those temps in the 30's, with some low 40's for southern parts of the state. Tuesday looks to add several degrees on to Monday's high.

A storm system looks to impact the area late Wednesday through Thursday, but it will be warm enough for a plain rain event. Temperatures will soar well-above normal.

It looks like another system could bring rain to the state next Saturday. Looking at temperatures, by next Saturday much of the state could be looking at high temperatures in the 50's, 60 for southern Indiana is not out of the question. ENJOY THE WARMTH, the cold weather looks to come back in full force for the second half of the month. I think the end of the month could offer up record cold for our area. At first I think the arctic air will get stuck to our west, thanks to the ridge in the southeast. In time, that ridge should break-down and drive that arctic air into the Ohio Valley for the latter part of January.

Sorry I have no images for this post. I know reading plain ol' text alone can be quite boring! :) If your still reading this thanks for stopping by my weather blog. Have a great rest of the weekend, God bless.

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