Neoskeptics

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Washington State ???

2012-03-03T23:39:00.000-05:00

Caucus Sunday, March 6, 2012

Washington State was assigned 40 regular delegates but none of the delegates will be bound until the county caucuses at the end of March (10 delegates) and the state caucuses at the end of May (30 delegates)

Given that the Washington State Caucuses occur before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows

Delegates = 40 * Percent of Votes Received

Santorum = 24.6% ==> 0 delegates

Paul = 25.0% ==> 0 delegatesGingrich = 10.8% ==> 0 delegates

"Others" = 3.5% ==> 0 delegates

Comments

None of the delegates allocated by today's caucuses are bound; the caucuses were just another beauty contest.

________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.

Resistance is Futile, saith the Borg

2012-03-02T19:00:00.004-05:00

We have now entered the final count-down to Super Tuesday, the day that twelve states will hold primaries to determine the allocation of 255 bound delegates, more than 20 percent of the total 1,144 required to win the nomination. Disregarding the caucus "beauty contests" in Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota wherein no delegates were officially awarded, the line-up going into Super Tuesday is as follows:

Romney (118), Gingrich (29), Santorum (17), Paul (8)

In terms of percentages, the allocation becomes roughly:

Romney (67.8%), Others (32.2%)

Lots of hard nosed data-types like myself made early predictions that Governor "Borg" Romney would amass a strong lead in the initial winner-take-all primaries and caucuses, so that his predicted victories on Super Tuesday would be converted into crushing defeats for his remaining opponents; thereafter it would be impossible for any of them to catch up to him. Why? Because the Governor's campaign and its sidekick Super PAC are better funded by wide margins than the other candidates, funds that the Governor has shown no reluctance to spending on vicious negative campaign ads against them. And he's the most experienced manager in the bunch, which guarantees that his negative ads would be deployed more effectively than theirs.

Of course, that was before many of us were "reminded" (or first learned) that the delegates in the early GOP primaries and caucuses, including Super Tuesday, would be awarded on a proportional basis, not winner-take-all. But very soon thereafter we also learned that most of the GOP organizers had apparently skipped their middle school classes on the days the teachers taught proportional allocation; so these math delinquents repeatedly applied "winner-take-almost-all" and "top-two-winners-take-all" -- thereby denying weaker candidates the chance to use small gains to stay in the game.

Which brings me back to my original prediction: crushing defeat for the Governor's opponents on Super Tuesday wherein he will gain upwards of 50 percent of the delegates, followed by total route in the months ahead ... but with a caveat. The anti-Mormon undertow against the Governor is so strong, at least as strong as the anti-black undertow against President Obama, that it's conceivable that a substantial segment of the GOP's regulars will continue to reject the Governor's legitimacy as the party's standard bearer as firmly as some of them continue to reject the legitimacy of President Obama's citizenship. So I still am still leaving open the possibility of a rebellion on the GOP convention floor in August.
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Related notes:

The 20,000 Pound Elephant

2012-02-29T11:19:00.002-05:00

After a brief lull, the GOP's nomination process lurched forward yesterday (Tuesday 28 February 2012) in the Arizona and Michigan primaries, with Governor Romney winning the most votes in each state. He won by a wide margin in Arizona, gaining 47 percent of the vote, a 20 point margin over Senator Santorum's 27 percent.

But the governor only won 41 percent of the vote in Michigan, edging out Senator Santorum's 38 percent. His 3 percent margin in Michigan was surprisingly low, given that Michigan is his home state and a state wherein his father, George Romney, had been a popular governor (1963-1969). His margin was also lower than should have been expected given that his campaign and its companion Super PAC (Restore Our Future) outspent the Senator by a wide margin, a Senator who was a come-from-out-of-nowhere candidate with no roots in Michigan.

I suggest that the Senator's appeal to the Religious Right provides the key, not just to his surprisingly strong showing in Michigan, but also to the unspoken factor that underlies the Governor's inability to mobilize the enthusiastic support of the Republican base. He is not a Christian. He's a Mormon, a religion that America's Christian Religious Right regards an heretical and/or non-Christian cult.

Governor Mitt Romney is a Mormon who doesn't talk about his religion; but neither did Senator Jack Kennedy ... until the political realities of his 1960 campaign forced him to do so in his famous speech to the Greater Houston Ministerial Association wherein he attempted to remove all doubt that his Catholic religion would not influence his decisions as president, that the Vatican would not determine his policies in the White House. In other words, candidate Kennedy confronted religious bigotry head-on; whereas candidate Romney continues to run in its shadow. Indeed, Catholic Senator Rick Santorum's seemingly crude comments that his own recent reading of Senator Kennedy's speech made him want to vomit may actually have been a sophisticated bank shot, apparently aimed at President Obama, that slammed its real target, Governor Romney.

The 20,000 pound elephant in the GOP's back room has been throwing its considerable weight behind a series of non-Mitt candidates-of-the-month ever since the debates last fall and throughout this spring's primaries and caucuses. How long will it take for the Governor to wake up to the the possibility that religious bigotry poses as great a threat to his campaign as racial bigotry poses for President Obama? How long will it take for him to recognize that, like candidate Jack Kennedy before him, he has no choice but to confront this ugly monster head-on?

________________
Related notes:

Vision vs. Blind Ambition

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Vermont ???

2012-02-26T12:52:00.001-05:00

Preliminary ... Primary, Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Vermont was assigned 14 regular delegates, but its 3 automatic delegates (party officials) are also bound by the votes in the primary according to the Vermont GOP's regulations. In other words, these three are, in effect, additional regular delegates thereby giving Vermont 17 "regular" delegates.

Given that the Vermont primary occurred before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows:

Delegates = 17 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times ... @

Gingrich = xx% ==> yy delegates
Romney = xx% ==> yy delegates
Santorum = xx% ==>yy delegates
Paul = xx% ==> yy delegates
"Others" = xx% ==> yy delegates

Comments

___________________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Virginia ???

2012-02-26T12:52:00.000-05:00

Preliminary ... Primary, Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Virginia was assigned 46 regular delegates.

Given that the Virginia primary occurred before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows:

Delegates = 46 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times ... @

Gingrich = xx% ==> yy delegates
Romney = xx% ==> yy delegates
Santorum = xx% ==>yy delegates
Paul = xx% ==> yy delegates
"Others" = xx% ==> yy delegates

Comments

___________________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Tennessee ???

2012-02-26T12:50:00.002-05:00

Preliminary ... Primary, Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Tennessee was assigned 55 regular delegates

Given that the Tennessee primary occurred before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows:

Delegates = 55 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times ... @

Gingrich = xx% ==> yy delegates
Romney = xx% ==> yy delegates
Santorum = xx% ==>yy delegates
Paul = xx% ==> yy delegates
"Others" = xx% ==> yy delegates

Comments

___________________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Oklahoma ???

2012-02-26T12:49:00.002-05:00

Preliminary ... Primary, Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Oklahoma was assigned 37 regular delegates, but its 3 automatic delegates (party officials) are also bound by the votes in the primary according to the Oklahome GOP's regulations. In other words, these three are, in effect, additional regular delegates thereby giving Oklahoma 40 "regular" delegates.

Given that the Oklahoma primary occurred before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows:

Delegates = 40 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times ... @

Gingrich = xx% ==> yy delegates
Romney = xx% ==> yy delegates
Santorum = xx% ==>yy delegates
Paul = xx% ==> yy delegates
"Others" = xx% ==> yy delegates

Comments

___________________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Ohio ???

2012-02-26T12:48:00.003-05:00

Preliminary ... Primary, Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Ohio was assigned 63 regular delegates -- but none of them are bound. No matter how the primary vote turns, these 63 delegates can vote as they please on the first ballot at the convention

Given that the Ohio primary occurred before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows:

Delegates = 63 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times ... @

Gingrich = xx% ==> yy delegates
Romney = xx% ==> yy delegates
Santorum = xx% ==>yy delegates
Paul = xx% ==> yy delegates
"Others" = xx% ==> yy delegates

Comments

___________________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in North Dakota ???

2012-02-26T12:48:00.000-05:00

Preliminary ... Caucuses, Tuesday, March 6, 2012

North Dakota was assigned 25 regular delegates -- but none of them were bound by these caucuses.

Given that the North Dakota caucuses occurred before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows:

Delegates = 25 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times ... @

Gingrich = xx% ==> "yy" delegates
Romney = xx% ==> "yy" delegates
Santorum = xx% ==> "yy" delegates
Paul = xx% ==> "yy" delegates
"Others" = xx% ==> "yy" delegates

Comments

The North Dakota Caucuses did not bind any delegates

___________________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Alaska???

2012-02-26T12:47:00.000-05:00

Preliminary ... Caucuses, Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Alaska was assigned 24 regular delegates -- but none of them are bound. No matter how the vote turns, these delegates can vote as they please on the first ballot at the convention

Given that the Alaska primary occurred before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows:

Delegates = 24 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times ... @

Gingrich = xx% ==> "yy" delegates
Romney = xx% ==> "yy" delegates
Santorum = xx% ==> "yy" delegates
Paul = xx% ==> "yy" delegates
"Others" = xx% ==> "yy" delegates

Comments

The Alaska Caucuses did not bind any delegates

___________________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Idaho ???

2012-02-26T12:46:00.001-05:00

Preliminary ... Primary, Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Idaho was assigned 29 regular delegates -- but 6 of them are not bound. No matter how the primary vote turns, these 6 delegates can vote as they please on the first ballot at the convention

Given that the Idaho primary occurred before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows:

Delegates = 29 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times ... @

Gingrich = xx% ==> yy delegates
Romney = xx% ==> yy delegates
Santorum = xx% ==>yy delegates
Paul = xx% ==> yy delegates
"Others" = xx% ==> yy delegates

Comments

___________________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Massachusetts ???

2012-02-26T12:46:00.000-05:00

Preliminary ... Primary, Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Massachusetts was assigned 38 regular delegates.

Given that the Massachusetts primary occurred before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows:

Delegates = 38 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times ... @

Gingrich = xx% ==> yy delegates
Romney = xx% ==> yy delegates
Santorum = xx% ==>yy delegates
Paul = xx% ==> yy delegates
"Others" = xx% ==> yy delegates

Comments

___________________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Georgia ???

2012-02-26T12:45:00.001-05:00

Preliminary ... Primary, Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Georgia was assigned 73 regular delegates, but its 3 automatic delegates (party officials) are also bound by the votes in the primary according to the Georgia GOP's regulations. In other words, these three are, in effect, additional regular delegates thereby giving Georgia 76 "regular" delegates.

Given that the Georgia primary occurred before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows:

Delegates = 76 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times ... @

Gingrich = xx% ==> yy delegates
Romney = xx% ==> yy delegates
Santorum = xx% ==>yy delegates
Paul = xx% ==> yy delegates
"Others" = xx% ==> yy delegates

Comments

___________________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind

A Brokered GOP Convention???

2012-02-25T11:05:00.000-05:00

The headlines tell the tale:

Unemployment is down;
The Dow is up;
President Obama's approval ratings are up;
The GOP front runner -- by delegate count -- continues to stumble

Governor Romney will probably stumble across the finish line with the required 1144 votes by the end of the last primary and caucus in June. But given the extraordinary discretion granted to so many so-called "bound" delegates plus the possible emergence of "faithless" delegates, will he make it through the first ballot at the GOP convention in August?

______________
Related notes:

Primaries, Caucuses, and Convention -- Two GOP Scenarios

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Arizona ???

2012-02-24T09:23:00.000-05:00

Preliminary ... Primary, Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Arizona was assigned 26 regular delegates, but its 3 automatic delegates (party officials) are also bound by the votes in the primary according to the Arizona GOP's regulations. In other words, these three are, in effect, additional regular delegates thereby giving Arizona 29 "regular" delegates.

Given that the Arizona primary occurred before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows:

Delegates = 29 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times ... @ 9:50 am Wed 29 Feb 2012

Gingrich = 16.2% ==> 0 delegates
Romney = 47.3% ==> 29 delegates
Santorum = 26.6% ==> 0 delegates
Paul = 8.4% ==> 0 delegates
"Others" = 1.5% ==> 0 delegates

The race to the 1144 delegates required for a candidate to become the nominee of the Republican Party in the 2012 presidential election is now ending its first phase. The next phase ends on Super Tuesday, March 6th.

Comments

The Arizona GOP followed the winner-take-all rule in defiance of the Republican National Committee's decree that all primaries and caucuses held before April 1st must be proportional. This opens the possibility that the Arizona allocation of delegates may be challenged on the convention floor in August.

___________________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Michigan???

2012-02-24T09:21:00.001-05:00

Primary, Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Michigan was assigned 27 regular delegates, but its 3 automatic delegates (party officials) are also bound by the votes in the primary according to the Michigan GOP's regulations. In other words, these three are, in effect, additional regular delegates thereby giving Michigan 30 "regular" delegates.

Given that the Michigan primary occurred before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows:

Delegates = 30 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, NY Times ... @ 6:00 pm 1 Mar 2012
followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded,
as reported by the Republican National Committee ... @ 3:10 pm 3 Mar 2012

Romney = 41.1% ==> 16 delegates
Santorum = 37.9% ==> 14 delegates
Paul = 11.6% ==> 0 delegates
Gingrich = 6.5% ==> 0 delegates
"Others" = 2.9% ==> 0 delegates

The race to the 1144 delegates required for a candidate to become the nominee of the Republican Party in the 2012 presidential election is now ending its first phase. The next phase ends on Super Tuesday, March 6th.

Comments

Landslide Mitt "won" by a little more than 3 percent in his home state
The Governor "won" but he received 15 delegates, the same as the Senator who "lost" ... Republican new math ... :-)
Non-Republicans were eligible to vote in this primary
Once again, the small size of Governor Romney's lead in his own home state and the advantage of having far more funds than Senator Santorum confirms that his support among voters continues to be shallow.

___________________________________

Related Notes:

The 20,000 Pound Elephant
Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind

Will It Be Deja Vu All Over Again???

2012-02-20T11:14:00.001-05:00

The New York Times recently reported that mortgaged backed securities were beginning to attract more buyers again, "Bonds Backed by Mortgages Regain Allure" (NY Times, 2/18/12). Of course, most readers of this blog need no reminders that mortgage backed securities were the primary fuel that powered the housing bubble that ultimately burst into the Great Recession.

Unfortunately, it wasn't the creation of mortgage backed securities that powered the bubble, but the abuse of this technique for creating bonds based on mortgages that their made their generic family name "derivatives" so notorious. When firms like Goldman Sachs included too many sub-prime mortgages in the mega-packs of real assets underlying their derived bonds, they produced the so-called "toxic assets" that were subsequently purchased by the banks that were "too big to fail." And it was this abuse that led to the legislative reforms embodied in the so-called Dodd-Frank bill, named after their leading co-sponsors, Democratic Senator Chris Dodd and Democratic Congressman Barney Frank.

Unfortunately, most of the nation's media were co-conspirators in this massive fraud, if only by their endless repetition of the mantra that derivatives were "too complicated" for ordinary citizens to understand; and in so saying, they lied, and by so lying they gave the Wall Street felons effective cover from public scrutiny. Nor did President Obama use his bully pulpit and his vaunted oratorical skills to focus the public's attention on the causes of this preventable catastrophe. Fortunately, there were at least two courageous exceptions to this collective cowardice to which I once again refer my readers:

For clear explanations of the general concepts of derivatives and specific techniques like securitized mortgages and credit default swaps, see Baseline Scenarios "Financial Crisis for Beginners"
And please give yourself a treat by listening to the excellent broadcast by NPR's This American Life radio show called "The Giant Pool of Money" for an entertaining, but nonetheless informative description of the step-by-step process whereby companies like Countrywide Financial (subsequently purchased by Bank of America) duped working class home buyers into applying for and receiving mortgages they could not afford, then passed these sub-prime mortgages onto big Wall Street buyers like Goldman Sachs, who then packaged these fraudulent assets into the "tranches" underlying securitized bonds, thereby creating the "toxic assets" that they sold by the billions to the banks that were "too big to fail."

Looking forward, we have to remain mindful of a few facts:

There is nothing inherently bad or good about creating structured assets that derive their value from the stream of income from an underlying pool of other kinds of assets. For example, the underlying assets might be mortgages on real property and the derived assets might be bonds that yield quarterly or annual income from the monthly payments made on the underlying mortgages.
There's also nothing inherently bad or good about including some less reliable assets in the underlying pools provided that the estimated yield calculated for the derived bond is lower than the estimated yield from bonds based on more reliable asset pools. For example, if some of the mortgages were for homeowners whose credit scores were 500 to 550 were included in the pool, this would not be an inherently bad thing, provided that the yield promised by the derived bond was substantially lower than yields promised by bonds all of whose mortgage holders had credit scores between 750 and 800.

However as the housing bubble burst back in 2007-2008, Standard & Poor, Moody, and Fitch (co-conspirators in the massive fraud) were assigning AAA ratings to bonds based on mortgage pools that included a substantial number of "liars loans" -- mortgages given to homeowners whose incomes were a fraction of what would have been required to make their monthly mortgage payments. (Note: there is ample reason to believe that the lion's share of the "lies" were told by Countrywide and their corporate peers, not the low paid mortgage applicants.)
There was a very good reason why big banks, pension funds, insurance companies, and other managers of large investment pools were such avid purchasers of AAA bonds based on toxic assets ==> U.S. ten year Treasury bills, their preferred guaranteed investment havens, were paying between 4.00% and 4.50%
U.S. ten year Treasuries are currently paying even lower yields today, 2.002% (as of Friday 2/18/12) despite lower-than-AAA rating from S&P, and these same large investment pools of are still seeking AAA investments that pay substantially higher yields.

So the question becomes: Will the Dodd-Frank reforms protect our economy from the creation of another massive round of AAA rated toxic assets? Will these reforms prevent Goldman Sachs and its greedy peers from creating securities based on pools of toxic assets once again? Will they prevent Standard & Poor and its greedy peers from assigning AAA ratings to another round of junk?

Unfortunately, there are reasons to fear that the Dodd-Frank reforms will not provide adequate protection. Perhaps the most important is the fact that Wall Street dispatched small armies of the most well-connected lobbyists to weaken the bill as it was being created, e.g. "Wall Street Continues to Spend Big on Lobbying" (NY Times, 8/1/11). And as per the recent overview by the Economist news magazine, "Too Big Not to Fail" (Economist, 2/18/12), the resulting legislation and derived regulations have become so bloated that effective implementation is highly improbable.

____________________
Related notes:

Automotive Plebs vs. Patrician Financiers
Paying the Ransom Note
Super Bad
Regulating the Hedge Funds

Who Won How Many Regular Delegate Votes in Maine???

2012-02-12T09:51:00.003-05:00

Caucuses began Sat 4 Feb and ended Sat 11, 2012

Minnesota was assigned 21 regular delegates. It also has 3 automatic delegates (party officials). None of its 24 delegates are bound by the votes in the caucus according to the Maine's GOP's regulations. In other words, Maine has 24 "super delegates" who can vote as they please at the GOP convention in August.

At the end of the first eight events -- Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota the allocated delegate count was as follows:

Romney = 85
Gingrich = 31
Santorum = 16
Paul = 8

Once again, no one is near the 1144 delegates required to win the GOP nomination; nor will anyone be any closer numerically because Maine's delegates are all officially uncommitted ... :-)

Given that the Minnesota Caucuses occur before April 1st, each candidate will receive regular delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows

Delegates = 21 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times @ 8:00 am Friday 17 Feb Eastern

Note: the NY Times has published Associated Press "guesstimates" about how the elected delegates are inclined to vote at this time ... it looks like "Top two winners take all"

Romney = 39.2% ==> "11" delegates
Paul = 35.7% ==> "10" delegates

Gingrich = 6.2% ==> yy delegates

Santorum = 17.7% ==> yy delegates

"Others" = 1.1 ==> yy delegates

Comments

It's another "beauty contest" ... :-(

________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.

The Vulcan vs. the Borg

2012-02-07T18:30:00.001-05:00

The Supreme Court's 2008 decision (Citizens United vs. The Federal Election Commission) liberated corporations to exercise their rights as "people" in the pursuit of free speech, i.e., making unlimited contributions to Super Pacs. As per the following NY Times report, the funds collected by these "corporate people" thus far are very impressive and/or very scary depending your thoughts about how much free speech "corporate people" should be given:

Who's Financing the Super Pacs (NY Times, 2/2/12)

Super Pacs unleashed tidal waves of negative ads that swamped Speaker Gringrich's surge in the Iowa Caucuses, routed Governor Romney in South Carolina primary, and demolished Speaker Gingrich in the Florida primary. But as we all know, Karl Rove's super Super Pacs are mostly holding their fire for the general election battle to defeat President Obama's bid for reelection in tandem with Governor Romney's Super Pacs.

In 2008 President Obama's campaign for the Democratic Party's nomination disdained large contributions from fat cats in preference to small donations from millions of ordinary citizens. But then he shocked some of his supporters when he also disdained public financing that would have put a lid on the total dollar volume spent on campaign ads. And yesterday, as expected, he dropped his other Vulcan shoe:

Obama Yields in Marshaling "Super Pac" (NY Times, 2/6/12)

With rumors, consistently denied, that the Obama campaign is planning to amass a billion dollar war chest, does anyone doubt that Mr. Rove, a/k/a "The Prince of Political Darkness", will let Governor "Borg" Romney be outspent in the Mother of All Negative Campaign Battles against our "Vulcan" President?

I'm looking forward to the fall campaign.

I really enjoyed "shock and awe" so this should be fun ... :-(

_____________________________________

Related notes:

Of Tontines, Murders, and Negative Campaign Ads

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Minnesota ???

2012-02-05T08:29:00.000-05:00

Caucus Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Minnesota was assigned 37 regular delegates, but its 3 automatic delegates (party officials) are also bound by the votes in the caucus according to the Minnesota GOP's regulations. In other words, these three are, in effect, additional regular delegates thereby giving Minnesota 37 "regular" delegates.

At the end of the first five events -- Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada the delegate count was as follows:

Romney = 85
Gingrich = 31
Santorum = 16
Paul = 8

So nobody is anywhere near the 1144 delegates required to win the GOP nomination; nor will anyone be much closer numerically after Minnesota's 37 delegates are allocated ... :-)

Given that the Minnesota Caucuses occur before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows

Delegates = 37 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times @ 7:58 am Friday 17 Feb Eastern

According to the NY Times, none of Minnesota's 40 delegates will be bound to any candidate as a result of the Feb. 7 precinct caucuses. The election of 24 delegates will take place at Congressional district conventions in mid-April. The state convention, which takes place May 4-5, may vote to bind 13 At Large delegates.

Romney = 16.9% ==> yy delegates

Gingrich = 10.8% ==> yy delegates

Santorum = 44.9% ==> yy delegates

Paul = 27.1% ==> yy delegates

"Others" = 0.3% ==> yy delegates

Comments

Are these people serious? Who wrote this crazy voting script? Al Qaeda? Is Minnesota still in the US of A or did it drift off into the Canadian blue yonder. It's just a "beauty contest" so who cares??? ... :-(

________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Colorado ???

2012-02-05T08:25:00.001-05:00

Caucus Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Colorado was assigned 33 regular delegates, but its 3 automatic delegates (party officials) are also bound by the votes in the caucuses according to the Colorado GOP's regulations. In other words, these three are, in effect, additional regular delegates thereby giving Colorado 33 "regular" delegates.

Given that the Colorado Caucuses occur before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows

Delegates = 33 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times @ 7:57 am Friday 17 Feb

According to the NY Times, none of Colorado's 36 delegates will be bound to any candidate as a result of the Feb. 7 precinct caucuses. The state's delegates will be elected at county assemblies, held mostly on March 24, but before March 28, and allocated at district and state conventions in mid-April.

Romney = 34.9% ==> 0 delegates

Gingrich = 12.8% ==> 0 delegates

Santorum = 40.3% ==> 0 delegates

Paul = 11.8% ==> 0 delegates

"Others" = 0.3% ==> 0 delegates

Comments

None of the delegates allocated by today's caucuses are bound

________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Nevada ???

2012-02-01T23:10:00.000-05:00

Caucus Saturday, February 4, 2012

Nevada was assigned 25 regular delegates, but its 3 automatic delegates (party officials) are also bound by the votes in the caucus according to the Nevada GOP's regulations. In other words, these three are, in effect, additional regular delegates thereby giving Nevada 28 "regular" delegates.

At the end of the first four events -- Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, the delegate count was as follows:

Romney = 71
Gingrich = 23
Santorum = 13
Paul = 3

So nobody is anywhere near the 1144 delegates required to win the GOP nomination; nor will anyone be much closer numerically after Nevada's 28 delegates are allocated.... :-)

Given that the Nevada Caucuses occur before April 1st, each candidate will receive delegates proportional to the percentage of the votes they received, i.e., the calculation should be as follows

Delegates = 28 * Percent of Votes Received

However, the GOP allows each state to define "proportional" as it sees fit, so the following results show the percent of votes each candidate received as reported by the NY Times, followed by the number of regular delegates actually awarded, again as reported by the NY Times @ 10:00 pm Monday 6 February

Romney = 50.1% ==> 14 delegates

Gingrich =   21.1%  ==> 6 delegates
Santorum =  10.0%  ==> 3 delegates
Paul =  18.8%  ==> 5 delegates

"Others" = xx% ==> yy delegates

Comments

Governor Romney won the largest percentage of votes cast (50.1%), the same percentage he won in 2008 (51.1%); whereas Congressman Paul's 18.8% is a larger share than he won in 2008 (13.7%)
Governor Romney's majority in Nevada (50.1) is larger than his first place percentage in Florida (46.4%). Similarly, Speaker Gingrich's tally in Nevada (21.1%) is smaller than his share in Florida (31.9%). Senator Santorum moved down from 13.4% to 10,0%. Only Congressman Paul, who didn't campaign in Florida, increased his share from 7.0% to 18.8%

________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.

The Governor's Benign Neglect

2012-02-01T16:24:00.003-05:00

President Obama has made endless references to the "middle class" but rarely, if ever, expresses any concern about poor people. Indeed, as per my recent note, he only used the words "poor" and "poverty" four times, count them, four times in the combined text of all three State of the Union Addresses that he has delivered so far.

But he could do worse. He could say out loud, as you will hear Governor Romney saying out loud in an interview with Soledad O'Brien that you can watch by clicking the link at the end of this paragraph, that he doesn't care about the very poor. Indeed, Governor Romney says that he thinks we have three classes in our society: the rich, the middle class, and the very poor. He "clarifies" by asserting that 90 to 95 percent of the population is in the middle class, meaning that the rich and the very poor together are about 5 to 10 percent -- for neither of which does he have any concern. He thinks the rich are doing fine and the very poor have safety nets. If these nets need repair, he'll fix them. But otherwise, he's not concerned.

http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/01/mitt-romney-middle-income-americans-are-focus-not-very-poor/

According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, about 15 percent of the population is below the Poverty Line, as per the following chart.

As a veteran instructor, I have long been aware of grade inflation. So do we now have socioeconomic class inflation as well? According to the Governor, we still have the rich and the middle class, and the very poor are still at the bottom, but somehow the unfortunate folk who are just plain poor have been promoted into the middle class.

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Related notes:

Who Won How Many Regular Delegates in Florida ???

2012-01-31T19:17:00.002-05:00

Primary, Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Florida was assigned 47 regular delegates, but its 3 automatic delegates (party officials) are also bound by the votes in the primary according to the Florida GOP's regulations. In other words, these three are, in effect, additional regular delegates thereby giving Florida 50 "regular" delegates. All 50 delegates are awarded to the candidate who receives the most votes, i.e., winner-take-all.
Results reported in the NY Times (1/31/12 @ 11:29 pm)

Romney = 46.4% ==> 50 delegates
Gingrich = 31.9% ==>   0 delegates
Santorum = 13.4% ==>  0 delegates
Paul = 7.0% ==>  0 delegates
Others = 1.3% ==>  0 delegates

Comments

Unlike the open caucus in Iowa and the open primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Florida's primary is closed; only registered Republicans can vote here.
Florida hosts the only campaign event before April 1st that will award its delegates on the traditional winner-take-all basis.
The Florida GOP followed the winner-take-all rule in defiance of the Republican National Committee's decree that all primaries and caucuses held before April 1st must be proportional. It is therefore possible that Florida's allocation of its delegates may be challenged on the convention floor in August.
Unlike the previous underpopulated states in the GOP campaign (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina), Florida has a large population (over 19 million), a diverse population (16% black, 22% Hispanic), and large metropolitan areas (Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Tallahassee)

___________________________________

Related Notes:

Links to all election summaries are found in "Who Won???"
The reader is also referred to my previous note that provides a concise description of the rules that govern the GOP's primaries and caucuses and to the dashboard that will maintain a running tally of the delegates earned by the candidates until the last vote is cast.
Alert!!! Black Swans Ahead ... and Behind
Of Tontines, Murders, and Negative Campaign Ads

State of the Union Addresses vs "Poor" and "Poverty"

2012-01-30T02:04:00.000-05:00

Most U.S. Presidents manage to get the word out about how hard they are working on their next State of the Union Address, how it will lay out their vision of where we are now, the challenges that face the nation, as well as the opportunities. They want us to believe that every word in this speech will be vetted by the highest administrators and the most perceptive analysts in their administrations, and that we may draw significant conclusions from how much attention or how little attention, i.e., how many words, they devote to each issue.

This year, as the Great Recession ground on, there were widespread protests about the growing inequality of wealth and income, about the one percent vs. the ninety-nine percent. However, I found myself shaking my head as the President and all of the Republican wannabes always seemed to frame their proposals for solving our economic problems in terms of improving conditions for the middle class. But as stock values recover, it becomes clearer and clearer that those who have suffered the most economic injury from the Great Recession aren't the people whose pensions and other savings are invested in the market, i.e., the middle class. The biggest victims of the Great Recession are the same people who are always the biggest victims of any economic downturn. They are called "poor" people and they live in "poverty".

Nevertheless, President Obama and his Republican challengers use these words in their public appearances about as frequently as they use the F-word in public. Indeed, Governor Romney's "anti-entitlement strategy" suggests that people who get some support from the government in time of need are just lazy scam artists. Perhaps today's poor aren't so deserving of our concern as they were in the good old days when, as per President Obama's address, Americans "had each other's backs." So perhaps it's just as well that President Obama and his Republican adversaries convert all government support for poor people into costs that will reduce the benefits for the rest of us.

When I computer-scanned President Obama's 2012 address I only found one reference to the word "poor" and one reference to the word "poverty." So being a bit of a data-phreak, I located a Website whose pages contained all of the state of the union addresses from all presidents. I copied the links for the presidents since JFK into a spreadsheet, computer-scanned each address, then entered the number of times my computer-scans found the words "poor" and "poverty" in each address. You will find the results of my scans in the following table. Please note that I counted all references, even some that were clearly sarcastic, as in President Reagan's remarks that the Democrats had waged a war on "poverty" and "poverty" won ... because his sarcasm still indicated that he thought that poverty was a national problem, but one that could not be solved the way that the Democrats had proposed to solve it.

The results of my scans will be found in the following table that lists the names of the presidents; the years that defined their terms in office; each year in which they gave a state of the union address; the number of times each speech used the word "poor"; the number of times it referenced "poverty"; the total of the two; and the average number of times each president referred to either of these terms in all of their state of the union addresses. The last column computes an "index" that compares each president's average with President Obama's average to date. President Obama's index, of course, equals 1.0

As you will see, the average for Democratic presidents ranges from twice as high (JFK) to five times as high (LBJ) as President Obama's average; most Republican presidents also had higher averages than President Obama; indeed, the only presidents who made fewer references to "poor" or "poverty" were George H. W. Bush and Richard M. Nixon.

For your convenient reference, I left the links to each address tied to the year of the address so that you can read the speeches for yourselves.

Source = The American Presidency Project
State of the Union Addresses and Messages

Research notes by Gerhard Peters
"... An additional fact is that the State of the Union is delivered near the beginning of each session of Congress. Before 1934 this meant the State of the Union was delivered usually in December, near the end of the 1-4 years following the president's inauguration. Since 1934, the State of the Union is delivered near the beginning each year, with some presidents delivering a final message at the end of their last term (Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, Ford, and Carter).

Finally, President George W. Bush delivered his last State of the Union Address on January 28, 2008. Bush had the right to deliver either a written or oral State of the Union in the days immediately before leaving office in 2009, but like Presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and Clinton, he chose not to. Presidents Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, Ford, and Carter chose to do so ..."

Term(s)

Year

"Poor"