Blackstone Valley Weather Service

National Weather Service Issues Winter Storm Warning

2022-02-24T16:11:00.003-08:00

The National Weather Service Boston office has issued a *Winter Storm Warning* for most of Southern New England, except for the South Souths of CT, RI, MA and the Cape and Islands.

NWS Boston Winter Weather Headlines

From the NWS

"Snow will overspread the region between 1 and 4 am Friday morning. The snow will quickly become heavy falling at the rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times Friday morning. This will have a significant impact the Friday morning commute. The snow may change to a period of sleet near and especially south of the Massachusetts Turnpike by late Friday morning. Any mixed precipitation should change back to snow later Friday afternoon and early evening before ending."

NWS Precip End Time

The heaviest snow will fall Friday morning. Consider delaying any travel until the afternoon, if possible. If you have to be on the roads, allow yourself some extra travel time. How far north will the rain snow line venture? I still think sleet could mix in all the way to the MA/NH border.

18z HRRR Simulated Radar 3a-12a (Image Weathermodels.com )

However, anyone in the winter storm warning can expect 6-10" and 1-1.5" of sleet. The sleet will compact the snow even further, so the actual snowfall depth will be 3-6" in these places.

NWS Boston Snow Forecast

Is this the last of the snow for the winter? I doubt it and it wouldn't be fair to anyone if I were to jinx it.

Blizzard, Winter Storm Warning's Posted For Southern New England

2022-01-28T10:11:00.000-08:00

The National Weather Service Boston office has issued a Blizzard Warning for parts of Southeast Connecticut, all of Rhode Island, and all of Eastern Massachusetts. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the rest of Worcester County, Eastern Hamden, Hampshire, and Franklin Counties, and most of Connecticut.

A blizzard warning is issued when visibility is less than ¼ of a mile due to falling or blowing snow, with sustained winds or frequent gusts over 35 MPH for 3 consecutive hours.
A winter storm warning is issued when 6” of snow is expected in less than 12 hours OR 8” of snow in 24 hours.

For a refresher on how the storm will form, please see last night's blog.

Big Picture

Here are the latest headlines from the National Weather Service.

NWS Boston Headlines

The headlines are in effect from Midnight tonight until 5 am Sunday. The main reason Worcester County is not under a blizzard warning is due to uncertainty of the winds meeting the blizzard threshold. The current national radar does not look ominous at all.

College of Dupage Weather Center Simulated Radar

The surface map from 10 AM this morning is a bit more busy. You can see our 2 pieces of energy moving towards the Carolina coast. A new low is beginning to form off the Southeast coast.

WPC 15z Surface Analysis (10 AM)

This will be our storm. You can almost see the baroclinic leaf beginning to take shape on the low level water vapor satellite loop. The southern stream is visible across the Southeast while the Northern Stream is diving through the Ohio Valley.

GOES-16 Low Level Water Vapor Loop (Image College of Dupage Weather Center)

The low will deepen as it moves north/northeast this evening. The progression at the surface from 1 PM today to 1 AM tonight

WPC Surface Analysis/Fronts Friday 1 PM to Saturday 1 AM

Impacts and Hazards

Snow begins to fall around midnight. Expect 3-6" by 7 AM. There is plenty of Arctic air available so snowfall ratios will be around 15-20-1, instead the standard 10-1 ratio. Watch temperatures fall from the low 20s to teens across interior Southern New England from 1 AM to 7 AM

12z NAM Hires 2 m temperature Sat 1 AM, Sat 7 AM (Image Weathermodels.com)

Temperatures are in the low 30's across Southeast MA, the Cape and Islands. This is concerning because the snow will be heavy and wet here. The Cape and Islands will also see stronger winds so the threat of power outages is substantial in these areas. The gradient will also help enhance snowfall rates to the west.

12z HRRR 10m winds Saturday 8 am to Sunday 12 AM (image WeatherModels.com)

I'd take these winds gusts with a grain of salt but they give a good approximation of the the timing and areas that will see the strongest wind. That said, it also shows that the chance for blizzard conditions in Worcester County is still alive (yay!)(yay?).

Timing and Totals

Snow will wind down between 5-7 pm in Western and Central Southern New England. Snow may linger longer in Eastern MA. I still think most towns see 1-2 feet. I think Southern Worcester County will see 18-24", with 12-18 more likely across Western MA and even less into Berkshire County. I think 18-24 is also the best bet across Northeast MA and Rhode Island. I would expect the jackpot to be in Southeast Massachusetts where 24-36" will be the norm.

NWS Boston Snowfall Forecast

I would take the 18-24 and extend it into Eastern CT but otherwise I think the National Weather Service snow map is a good one. One final note; there was some extreme snowfall totals showing up on some of the computer models. As a rule I try to avoid forecasting weather that has never happened before. But a few totals approaching 40" are possible if they sit under intense snow for several hours.

Thanks for reading and look for some updates tomorrow.

Major Winter Storm Coming Saturday

2022-01-27T18:16:00.003-08:00

The weather community was on a proverbial roller coaster ride this week. Some of the weather models produced an epic blizzard; others showed little to no snow. I wanted to post this blog last night but I was shook when I reviewed the data. 24 hours later things are much more clear and my reservations are mostly gone. In this blog I'll go over the weather headlines, the evolution of the storm, a timeline, and last but not least...a snowfall forecast.

Weather Headlines

The National Weather Service Boston office (located in Norton) has issued a *Winter Storm Watch* from late Friday night through Saturday Evening

NWS Boston Headlines

These will be upgraded to Winter Storm or Blizzard Warnings tonight or tomorrow morning. This storm has the look of a textbook Southern New England blockbuster snowstorm. I'm going to nerd out for a minute to break down the genesis of the storm. If you only care about the when and how much, skip down a section.

General Overview

To start, lets head up to ~18,000 feet to see what's going on at 500 mb

18z GFS 500 mb Height, Vorticity valid Thur 7 PM (image Tropical Tidbits)

You can see the shortwave in the southern stream moving through the Four Corners. The northern stream energy is more subtle but it is diving across the Dakotas toward Minnesota and Iowa. Perhaps you can pick it up better on the Mid-Level Water Vapor Loop (courtesy of College of Dupage Weather Center)

At the surface it looks like...not much of anything at all. There are some light snow showers in Colorado and a few flakes in South Dakota/Nebraska.

18z GFS MSLP and Rain/Snow (Image Tropical Tidbits)

So how can something so tame turn into a blizzard?

12z NAM 500 mb heights/vort (Image Tropical Tidbits)

The two shortwaves meet near the east coast as the southern and northern jet streams phase. Anytime you see a vorticity maximum at the base of a trough, as we see in the last frame of the GIF, meteorologists will look immediately to right front quadrant for a storm. When you get a phase of the jet stream, said storm is able to get very strong. Very strong storms produce more intense precipitation, stronger winds, and larger waves. There will be a very strong storm; so where will it track?

18z GFS MSLP and Radar Saturday 7 am to Sunday 2 am (image Tropical Tidbits)

The American GFS is furthest south and east. Eastern MA would still get slammed but this would be more manageable in Central Massachusetts. I'll note that at the upper levels the GFS isn't all that different and has slowly nudged back west today. It still has plenty of wind and moisture and it bombs the low to 964 mb.

18z ECMWF (Euro) MSLP/Precipitation Type valid Saturday 1 am to Sunday 1 am

We pick up the EURO at 1 AM Saturday. As you can see, its already snowing. The EURO is closer to the coast and also deepens the storm to around 964 mb. The EURO would be a blizzard for Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Central and Eastern Massachusetts. I mentioned in the opening I was mostly confident. If the jet stream phase is late, or incomplete, the energy could move more east and shut out the Western parts of New England.

18z NAM Hires Simulated Radar Saturday 1 AM-Sunday 1 AM (Image WeatherModels.com)

I think this is too far east, but it would be foolish to completely dismiss given the windshield wiper ways of the weather models with this storm.

Timeline

I will need to refine this but I leaning towards snow breaking out after midnight on Friday night, picking up in intensity by 8 AM. Snow will then fall, heavy at times, if not the entire time, until 7-8 PM when the intensity should begin to wind down. During this time, there will be some areas of enhanced precipitation. These places may see 2-4"/hr snowfall rates. Right now, I think the best chance of that happening is in Essex County on the North Shore and Plymouth County to the South Shore. We can't rule that out in Worcester County. That will be the focus of tomorrow's blog. The low pulls away around midnight and we are left to shovel on Sunday.

Snowfall Totals

Most communities in Southeastern New England should prepare for 1-2 feet of snow. Yes, feet. I will make a more specific prediction tomorrow. I'll refine it to 12-18", 18-24", or perhaps...24"+.

I'll leave you with the National Weather Service forecast. It's highly possible (probable) that several communities approach 3 feet. If the 2-4"/hr snowfall bands sit over any one area for a few hours, they will have a shot at 30".

More tomorrow including a look at any coastal flooding and the winds. Thank you for reading!

Saturday Night Thoughts On Hurricane Henri

2021-08-21T16:29:00.002-07:00

As expected, Henri strengthened into a hurricane today as it continues its journey northward towards Southern New England. A few things have come into focus today. The model trend of taking the storm west into New York City halted and corrected back east. Landfall is expected between the Hamptons on Eastern Long Island and Newport, RI. So far, Henri has not gotten appreciably stronger, until right around now. The pressure is down to 988 mb as of 730 PM. The window is closing fast; it has until around 10 or 11 PM tonight before the ocean fuel runs out.

GOES 16 Visible Satellite 3-530 PM (Image Credit- College of Dupage Weather Center)

As the sun is setting on Henri, look what is finally showing up on satellite- an eye! It also appears that thunderstorms are firing in and around that eye. Although expected, we would prefer to keep it on the weaker side. The IR satellite confirms this strengthening

GOES-16 IR Satellite 5-730 PM (Image Credit- Tropical Tidbits)

The hurricane hunters are en route to Henri as I write this (approx. 530 PM). This data will help confirm the strengthening trend and help provide valuable insights about the storm. Its pretty remarkable that we were able to narrow down the landfall zone as quickly as we did, but because the severity of impacts from town to town vary depending on the exact track, we still want to pinpoint that final landfall location.

12z FV3 3km Simulated Radar (Image Credit- WeatherModels.com)

I like this model because its new and also because it depicts the precipitation shield well. The eastern side of the storm will see very little precipitation. The heaviest rain will be across Western CT, Western MA, and Eastern New York State. Flash flood watches are never the less still posted in Worcester County. It won't take much rain to cause flash flooding and some of these outer bands from Henri can produce 1-2" per hour. Less than an inch of rain is likely inside I-95 and less than 0.5 inch is likely across the outer Cape.

National Weather Service Precipitation forecast (Image Credit- WeatherModels.com)

That said, a landfall in Southern Rhode Island would shift this map to east. There are several reliable models taking the storm into Narragansett Bay. This would be a worst cast scenario for Henri for Eastern MA and especially Central MA.

NOTE- NOT A FORECAST, A POSSIBLE SCENARIO

18z HWRF Sim Radar MSLP 2 PM Sunday (Image Credit- Tropical Tidbits)

Henri is not expected to have a large wind field and the winds aloft will be tropical storm force. During these bands of rain the strongest wind gusts will occur. Right now a general 40-50 MPH is expected in Central MA and Rhode Island. With the saturated soil, that should be enough to uproot trees and cause power outages. Unfortunately it looks like Connecticut will take the worst of Henri. Eversource is cautioning residents that power could be out for 8-21 Days (!) and that up to 1.3 million customers could lose power.

But once again, shift this wind gust map to the east if the Rhode Island landfall verifies.

National Weather Service Max Wind Gust (Image Credit- WeatherModels.com)

Several hundred thousand customers are expected to lose power. If you add in all of the Northeast it will probably top 1 Million. The Storm Prediction Center has most of Southeastern New England (east of center) with a marginal risk of a tornado.

To time it out, expect the first rain bands in Central and Eastern MA between 5-8 AM. The weather really goes downhill after 8 AM with the worst moving through between 11 AM-5 PM tomorrow afternoon.

(Image Credit- National Hurricane Center)

Image Credit- National Hurricane Center)

This says some towns will see Tropical Storm force winds starting at 8 AM (top image) but the most likely time for them is after 2 PM (bottom image).

In closing, Henri will be an impactful storm in Southern New England. Best wishes to your property and I'm hoping for 0 deaths. Tropical cyclones have a mind of their own. Be prepared for any scenario tomorrow and hope for the best. I'll post as much as I can tomorrow.

Henri Sets Its Sights On The Northeast US

2021-08-20T18:33:00.003-07:00

Tropical Storm Henri is expected to strengthen into a Hurricane tonight or tomorrow before impacting the Northeast US with strong winds, flooding rain, and storm surge on Sunday. It may become the first Hurricane to make landfall in Long Island or Southern New England since Bob in 1991, but in reality there isn't much difference between a 70 MPH Tropical Storm and 75 MPH Hurricane. Ultimately, the exact forecast track will determine who sees flooding rain vs strong wind. In this blog I'll discuss the possible tracks and what kind of impacts that would have in Southeastern New England.

National Hurricane Center Forecast Cone

There is a Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Warning for the Massachusetts (MA) South Coast, Cape and Islands and Rhode Island (RI) coasts and a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning for most of the CT and Long Island shorelines.

Big Picture

As of 5 PM Friday Evening, Henri is a 70 MPH Tropical Storm with a 994 minimum pressure. The storm has started its move to the North. Although convection remains impressive, the northerly shear is continuing to displace the center of the storm. If you look carefully at the visible satellite, you can see a swirl in top left of the storm. Until this co-locates under the deepest convection, the storm is going to have trouble getting stronger.

GOES-16 Visible Satellite 4-6 PM (image credit- College of Dupage Weather Center)

The shear is expected to relax tonight and there are already signs of increased organization. Henri will be moving over the Gulf Stream, so intensification is likely as the storm moves northward. That heat starts to run out around 38 N, but it doesn't go away completely until 40 N. So the storm should begin to weaken as it approaches Southern New England and Long Island, but it won't have enough time to lose all its strength.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (image credit- WeatherModels.com)

Henri is expect to move slowly, which is unusual for a Northeast tropical cyclone. The legendary Hurricane of 1938 was moving close to 50 MPH. That is why I am skeptical that Henri breaks the 30 year Hurricane drought, but it won't really matter. This storm will have a high impact on millions of people. The slow movement gives it more time to weaken, but it also allows for more rain. I don't need to tell anyone in Southern New England just how unwelcome that is.

National Weather Service Flash Flood Guidance for 3 Hour Precip (Image Credit- WeatherModels.com)

This map says that it will only take 1.9 inches of rain in 3 hours for flash flooding to occur in Worcester. It will take 3 inches in Springfield and 2.1 inches in Boston. Tropical cyclones produce tremendous rainfall as we have seen locally with Elsa and Fred already this summer. The Weather Prediction Center is highlighting a slight to moderate risk of flash flooding across SNE on Sunday and Monday. Flash flooding can literally happen in a minutes (flash)- for reference see what happened on Route 20 in Worcester yesterday. Water started to rise rapidly, stranding several motorists. Turn around, don't drown!

It can also cause ordinarily calm streams to rise rapidly so please consider creating an evacuation plan in the event that your local stream decides to go crazy. Unfortunately, that happened in Western North Carolina as Fred moved through this week. As of today, there are at least 4 confirmed dead and at least 20 more missing.

WPC Excessive Rainfall outlook (source)

Soggy ground makes healthy trees susceptible to strong winds. Normally 50-60 MPH does not get the attention of New Englanders. 50-60 MPH cold season winds out of the NW do not generally cause damage to healthy trees. Sure, rotted trees and some branches come down but its not generally a big deal. Southeast winds on the other hand are trouble makers in Southern New England. Add in the moist soil and uprooted trees is a big concern with any winds over 40 MPH. Eversource is estimated 300-600K outages for an Eastern CT landfall and over a 1 million if it makes landfall in Western CT. That doesn't include National Grid so you can imagine the potential for long service disruptions.

The other concern will be storm surge flooding. There is an astronomical high tide this weekend, which will enhance the threat. Add waves on top of the surge along the South Coast of MA, RI, CT, both sides of Long Island, New York City, and the Jersey Shore and there will be moderate to major coastal flooding.

National Hurricane Center Peak Surge (source)

Scenario's In Southern New England

As currently forecasted, Henri would make landfall in Long Island and South Central Connecticut before moving into Western Massachusetts. That track would bring 6-10 inches of rain to parts of CT and W MA. A general 1-3" would fall in Worcester County with even less in Eastern MA. All of that rain could potentially come in 1-2 bands, so flash flooding would still be possible, but the odds of it occurring would decrease across Central and Eastern MA. These bands would also be capable of producing tornadoes. There were 2 confirmed tornadoes in the area yesterday as Fred moved through. They tend to be brief, but can cause localized destruction, similar to the twisters that moved through Douglas, Uxbridge, Northbridge, and Upton in 2018.

Weather Prediction Center Forecast Precipitation though Wednesday 8/25 (source)

The trade off would be stronger and more frequent damaging wind gusts. This track would lead to widespread tree and power line damage in Central MA with scattered tree and power line damage in Greater Boston. This track would largely spare the Merrimack Valley, Eastern NH and Maine. It would be similar to Hurricane Irene from late August 2011. Irene weakened to a Tropical Storm but it still knocked out power to millions in the Northeast. Irene caused tremendous flooding and was also a slow moving Northeast Tropical Cyclone. A lot of people are comparing this to Hurricane Sandy's left hook turn, but Irene is a stronger comparison.

Another potential outcome for Worcester County would be a landfall around Montauk to New London, CT, gradually bending west through Hartford to Springfield. This would bring stronger wind AND heavier rain to Providence and Worcester plus more coastal flooding in Buzzards Bay/Cape and Islands. There is some computer model support for this scenario

NOTE- IMAGE NOT A FORECAST

18z HWRF HENRI Composite Reflectivity Sunday 4 PM (Image Credit- Tropical Tidbits)

The next question is how strong will it be when it gets here. I think at best, it will be a low end Category 1 Hurricane. If it really blows up tomorrow, maybe the storm would be at 80 MPH at landfall. On the other hand, at worst I see it coming in with 60 MPH winds. I'm taking 70 MPH.

Timing

We have all day Saturday to prepare, although I do expect some showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. The atmosphere will feel noticeably tropical. The first bands will arrive well ahead of the storm early Sunday AM. The first impactful bands will approach the Providence, Boston, and Worcester corridor after 5 AM and the significant bands moving in after 7 AM. The worst of the storm will be mid afternoon as the center, perhaps eye? of Henri makes its closest pass to Central and Eastern MA. Precip will pause in Central and Eastern MA around 8 PM as the center slowly drifts into the Berkshires, where the rainfall "jackpot" will be.

Some guidance is insisting that the low will loop around and trigger additional rainfall on Monday. We will have a better handle on that tomorrow.

Conclusion

My advice is to prepare for power to be out for 1 week. Not everyone will lose power for one week, but some people will. If you live near the coast or by a river, have an evacuation plan. Storms like this are rare in the Northeast and its best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Mother Nature did not do us any favors this summer and a tropical system is the last thing we needed. More details tomorrow. Have a good night and thanks for reading.

Strong Nor'easter To Bring Heavy Precipitation to New England

2020-12-04T16:26:00.010-08:00

An intensifying Nor'easter will bring heavy wet snow to parts of New England starting tomorrow morning. The National Weather Service has issued a *Winter Storm Warning* for Worcester County and Northwest Middlesex County. A *Winter Storm Watch* remains in effect for the rest of Middlesex County, Essex County, Hampden, Hampshire, and Franklin counties, Coastal New Hampshire, and Northeast Connecticut.

NWS Boston Headlines Friday 12/4/2020 6 PM

6-12"+ are possible from Worcester County into Southern New Hampshire. This will not be a dry, fluffy snow. It will be a heavy wet, cement like snow. Winds will gust 30-45 MPH tomorrow afternoon into evening. This combination will result in widespread tree and powerline damage.

General Overview

Despite marginal temperatures for snow, a major Nor'easter will manufacture enough of its own cold air to deliver a moderate to major snowstorm starting tomorrow morning. A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will will pass near or over the Cape and Islands. The storm already has the classic baroclinic leaf structure as it organizes along the Eastern Seaboard.

College of Dupage LWIR Satellite

WPC Surface Fronts and MSLP Forecast Saturday 1 AM

Precipitation arrives in the form of rain between 4-7 AM from South to North. As rain rates increases, rain will begin to change to snow. This starts first in the higher elevations; Worcester Hills, Berkshires, and Litchfield Hills. The rain snow line will start around the Pike and 495 before collapsing south and east to around I-95 as the storm intensifies. The snow rates will approach, and in some cases exceed, 1-2" per hour. Some thundersnow is possible. The intense precipitation is key to creating temperatures cold enough to support snow. Eventually, temperatures will drop below freezing Saturday night as the low races into the Gulf of Maine.

18z NAM Hires Simulated Radar Sat 3 PM (image Weather Models.com)

Where it doesn't snow, it will pour. Street flooding is possible anywhere south and east of a Providence -Boston axis. River flooding is not currently expected as Southern New England still has drought conditions.

Strong winds from the deepening low will cause some tree and power line damage all over Southern New England. The strongest gusts will be in Southeast MA and Southern RI. The combination of 30-45 MPH winds and heavy wet snow will lead to numerous tree and power line damage in Central and Northeast MA.

Snow Forecast

Let's be honest this is all you really care about! It is a tricky forecast. Since I am not a forecaster, let me present the National Weather Service forecast and add a few details.

NWS Boston Snowfall Forecast

6-12" of heavy, wet, snow in Central and northeast Massachusetts will lead to damage. There is computer guidance that suggests 12-15" of snow is possible. I would bet on this coming true, in some places, likely in Northern Worcester County. On the other hand, a weaker storm or a storm further west would support more rain than snow, even in Southern Worcester County. This is where the forecast is tricky. If the snow starts at 10 AM, up to 10" would be possible in the Blackstone Valley. If snow begins at 3 PM, it will be closer to 4 or 5 inches. Therefore, 4-10" is a reasonable forecast for Southern Worcester County. The amount of tree and powerline damage in a 4" storm would be considerably less than a 10" snowstorm.

Thanks for reading the blog. I don't forecast daily anymore but I appreciate you taking the time to read my thoughts on the storm. All that is missing from making this a classic blockbuster is cold Canadian High Pressure.

-Zach Green

Biggest Snow Storm Of The Season Heads To Impact Region Tonight

2019-03-03T10:33:00.002-08:00

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Norton, MA has issued a *Winter Storm Warning* from 7 PM tonight until 10 AM Wednesday. A widespread 6-10" snowfall is expected. This storm will be the biggest of the season in Boston, surpassing the 3.6" on February 18. November 15, 2018, is the high snow mark for Worcester and Providence so far this season. 7.8" fell in Worcester while 6" fell in Providence. Both of those records should fall tonight/tomorrow morning, though Providence is more of a lock than Worcester.

NWS Early Sunday PM Headlines

I've had a lot of questions from inquiring minds wondering what the deal is with this storm. Let's answer in those in a Questions and Answers blog.

It's pretty nice this afternoon. Is it really going to snow?
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will give way to all clouds later this afternoon, but before that happens, a few breaks of sun will help keep temperatures in the upper 30's and low 40's. However, they will fall into the upper 20's and low 30's this evening. It is not a classic "noreaster" set up because there is no cold Canadian high pressure to our north supplying the region with a fresh supply of Arctic air. The first few hours of snow will fall with temperatures near freezing so expect so wet flakes to start. By 1 AM, Worcester County will be in the upper 20's. So it won't be a powder bomb like Thursday morning, but it also won't be a heavy wet "spring" snow either.

What is the storm doing right now?
The storm is currently dropping snow across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The south is seeing heavy rainfall and severe weather.

WSI/Wunderground Intellicast National Radar 1215 PM
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The presentation on satellite is also impressive. It is still in the process of maturing, but it is going to have the classic "leaf" or "comma head" by the time it is moving past Southern New England.

NOAA GOES EAST (16) Continental US IR Satellite

At the surface, we see strong high pressure descending into the Upper Midwest and into the Great Plains. The radar confirms the amount of precipitation available as this surface low works across the Southeast and starts to re-develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Sunday 1 PM

Okay cool, but when does it start?

Snow will begin to fall in Southwest Connecticut after 5 PM and will get into Worcester in Boston around 7 PM (give or take).

16z HRRR Simulated Radar Sunday 5 to 9 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

As mentioned before, temperatures will be falling into the upper 20's in Northeast MA and Worcester County, so expect this to start sticking to untreated roads right away.

When will the heaviest snow occur?

Expect snow to fall at moderate to heavy from 1 AM until 7 or 8 AM in Central Massachusetts, and until 10 AM in Eastern MA. The majority of snow accumulation will fall during this time period and travel will be extremely difficult. The low will deepen as it moves from the Mid-Atlantic coast to just Southeast of Nantucket.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Monday 1 AM, 7 AM

I think 1-2"/hour snow rates are possible as the low gains strength and slides to our southeast. This is likely in the region bounded by Boston, Worcester, Hartford, Providence, and Plymouth. The most likely time for these intense rates would be 2-5 AM.

16z HRRR Simulated Radar Sunday 9 PM to Monday 5 AM (image WeatherModels.com)

I see a sleet line in that radar loop. Will I get all snow?

Almost everyone away from the Cape and Islands will see all snow. Sleet will mix in up to Hartford-Providence-Plymouth line we just discussed.

How much snow?

A general 6-10 inches. The NWS is calling for 6-8" for almost all of the region. Some of the higher resolution models are going for 8-12". A few communities will see over 10" but I believe they will be the exception. I do think a lot of towns come in around 7-9" so for insurance, 6-10" for all regions except those that mix with rain and sleet.

NWS Snowfall forecast through Monday 1 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

What about the Monday morning commute?

Snow will still be falling at 7 AM in Central and Eastern MA and Rhode Island. It will ease up by 10 AM. With the bulk of the snow falling just before the commute, I expect a horrendous morning on the roads for those who have to be on them.

Will there be school?

I think most schools will close.

Any further questions?

Leave in the comments on the Facebook page or @zgreenwx on twitter.

-Zack Green

Two Rounds of Snow On The Way To SNE

2019-03-01T12:43:00.001-08:00

A quick hitting storm will bring plowable snow to Southern New England on Saturday. A second storm will bring even more significant snow overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Let's get into it.

Headlines
A *Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect from 1 AM Saturday until 7 PM Saturday. The heaviest snow will fall in the morning, with a break mid to late afternoon. A second batch of light to moderate snow will move through Saturday evening.

NWS Early PM Headlines

Saturday Storm
There will be no issues this evening. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20's. Temps in Northern RI, Central, and Northeast MA (including the city of Boston) will be in the mid to upper 20's tomorrow morning. From Providence to Plymouth south and east, temperatures will be in the low 30's. This means that the snow will be a bit fluffier the further north and inland you go, and wetter and heavier the further south and east you get.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Friday 7 PM, Saturday 1 AM, 7 AM

Snow will reach Southern Worcester County after 4 AM. The snowfall intensity will pick up between 7 AM 12 PM. Snow showers will linger Saturday afternoon in Central MA, while steady snow will continue in SE MA and RI until the mid to late afternoon.

18z HRRR Simulated Radar Sat 3 AM to Sunday 1 AM (image WeatherModels.com)

Snow accumulation will be highest south and east of Hartford, Worcester, and Lowell. The jackpot will likely be somewhere from Providence to Plymouth. In the Blackstone Valley, expect 3-5" of snow.

NWS 48 hour snow forecast through 1 PM Sunday (image WeatherModels.com)

Sunday
Sunday will actually be pretty nice, although there will be snow on all the sidewalks and lots of puddles from some of that snow melting. The March sun angle is quite strong so even with temps "only" in the upper 30's, it will still feel comfortable. It is all a tease, as the morning sun will give way to increasing high clouds as the next storm approaches.

Sunday Night-Monday Storm
This storm will start as snow for everyone. Snow will begin after 7 PM, with snowfall rates increasing after midnight.

12z EURO Precipitation Type, MSLP Sun 4 PM to Mon 11 AM (image WeatherModels.com)

The EURO model drops 4-8" of snow before changing to rain inside 495 and south of the Mass Pike, including the Blackstone Valley. Other models have more snow. There is still plenty of time to evaluate the precipitation type for this one. It will definitely begin as all snow and even if it does turn to rain, the morning commute is going to be a mess. The good news is, this system will be gone by lunchtime.

Opening bids for snowfall accumulation is 5-10" in the Blackstone Valley, with highest totals outside 495 and north of the Pike.

More to come this weekend.

-ZG

Winter Weather Advisory Wednesday Night, Thursday AM

2019-02-27T08:06:00.000-08:00

A *Winter Weather Advisory* has been issued from 7 PM tonight until 7 AM Tuesday morning. A light, fluffy snow will begin to fall this evening. Snow rates will not be all that intense, so snow removal technicians will be able to keep up with it. Most cities and towns will see 3-6". The highest amounts will be along and north of the Pike.

NWS Wednesday AM Headlines

Snow falls lightly from 6 PM until 9 PM. The roads will start to become snow covered quickly, with temperatures between 15-20 degrees. Snow may fall moderately at times between 9 PM and 5 AM. It will quickly taper to just snow showers between 5-8 AM, ending just before or during the AM rush.

12z NAM 3km HiRes Simulated Radar Wed 5 PM to Thurs 11 AM (Image WeatherModels.com)

You can use a backpack blower or a broom to get rid of this stuff tomorrow AM. Compared to the frozen slop we have had to clean up so far this winter, this is a welcome change. If a heavy band of snow does indeed set up, some localized communities could see over 6". This will be the exception, not the rule.

NWS Boston Expected Snowfall

I don't think this is the last snow chance of the winter. There are several snow chances in the next 1-2 weeks. I'll keep you posted.

-ZG

Strong Winds to Bitter Cold to...A Real Snow Event?

2019-02-25T13:05:00.001-08:00

It has been a wild day so far across Southern New England. Snow squalls caused some travel issues this morning but the main story is the strong winds. A *High Wind Warning* continues until 7 PM this evening. The wind will relent somewhat this evening and overnight. Temperatures will fall into the low teens by Tuesday morning and will only rebound into the low to mid 20's Tuesday afternoon. The coldest air of the week arrives on Wednesday morning with lows in the single digits. It will help set the table for a probable plowable snow event Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

NWS Boston Skywarn Twitter Post of Damage in Springfield, MA

As of 402 PM, 63926 customers were without power in Massachusetts. The worst is happening right now. You can find the latest wind reports here and the latest wind damage reports here. The highest gust I have seen so far is 69 MPH in Cambridge, MA. Worcester has reached 60 MPH and Mendon has reached 59 MPH. The strongest wind gusts will diminish shortly after sunset. Winds will remain gusty, but the power outages and tree damage should begin to slow down.

NWS NDFD Minimum Temperature Forecast Tuesday AM (image WeatherModels.com)

It will be sunny and breezy tomorrow. Although the threat for damaging winds decrease tomorrow, garbage and recycling bins will likely be blown around again. The coldest air of the week arrives Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. By 7 AM Wednesday, wind chill temperatures will -10 to -15 below.

12z EURO 2 m Wind Chill Temperatures Wed 7 AM (Image WeatherModels.com)

We then turn our attention to a clipper system them will emerge out of the Great Lakes, and perhaps strengthen as it passes South of New England. Most storms have moved through New England this season, which means a change over to rain, warm aloft, and other negative snow factors. Although this system may be moisture starved, the most recent computer guidance has a up to a 0.5" of precipitation by Thursday morning.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Wednesday 7 PM

That works out to 3-5" of snow. However, with temperatures in the teens Wednesday evening and favorable snow growth in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere, that 3-5" could turn out to be more like 5-10". There will be no mixing concerns and this snow will be powder. The biggest questions is how much moisture/forcing will be available to produce snow. The NAM is on the lighter side, while the EURO is on the juicer side.

18z NAM 3km Hi-res Simulated Radar Wednesday 9 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

I will have more on this tomorrow and Wednesday.

-ZG

High Wind Warning Headlines Sunday Weather Discussion

2019-02-24T15:13:00.001-08:00

NWS Northeast Regional Radar

With most of Sunday's precipitation behind us, a soggy Southern New England now must prepare for strong winds tonight through Monday evening. Winds out of the W and NW will be sustained at 20-40 MPH with gusts as high as 65 MPH possible. There is a real threat for damage to trees, power lines, and property. For that reason, the National Weather Service in Norton, MA has issued a *High Wind Warning* from 10 PM this evening until 7 PM Monday evening. Traveling will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

NWS Boston Sunday Early PM Headlines (click to enlarge)

General Overview
Surface low pressure is moving through Southeastern New England. Winds out of the northeast are allowing for the continuous drizzle this afternoon. This low is part of a larger storm system that is responsible for severe weather and flooding deaths in parts of the south, along with blizzard conditions in the Midwest and Great Lakes. This is part of the same storm system that brought snow flurries to Los Angeles and Las Vegas during the week.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Sunday 7 PM

As the parent low decays in Southeastern Ontario, the secondary low (which is really an open wave) that brought the rain to New England will begin to absorb energy from the parent low as it tracks in the Canadian Maritimes. The secondary low will deepen into a strong storm with a pressure of around 970 mb. At the same time, strong, broad high pressure will descend into the Upper Midwest. It will have pressure around 1040 mb.

WPC Surface Fronts.Precipitation Monday 1 PM

Winds have not been a major problem so far this winter because temperatures have often increased from the surface into the lowest levels of the atmosphere. This is known as an inversion and acts as a barrier to keep the strongest low-level winds above our heads. This will not be the case tomorrow. Cold, dry arctic air will begin spilling in from the Northwest this evening. This is an efficient way for the low-level winds to reach the surface.

Timing & Impacts
Temperatures this evening will fall from the low 40's to the upper 20's by morning. Temperatures will stay in the 20s for most of the day in Worcester County and Northeast MA. Temperatures will rise into the low 30's across Southeast MA. It will feel much colder thanks to the roaring winds. Wind chill values will be in the mid to upper teens in Western and Central MA and low 20's across Eastern MA.

12z EURO(1 hr) 2 m Wind Chill Temperatures Monday 2 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Winds tonight will begin to increase around 10 PM. Light sleepers are in for a rough night as wind gusts will slowly increase from 30 MPH to 45 MPH by morning. The potential overnight is for isolated to perhaps scattered power outages from downed tree limbs. There is also the potential for snow squalls that will hit at various times overnight through the morning commute.

20z HRRR Simulated Radar Monday 5-9 AM (Image WeatherModels.com)

The snow squalls will not only cause briefly hazardous travel conditions but also will serve as the entrance music for the main event. The main event is sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with winds gusts of 45-65 MPH from 10 AM to 6 PM. Scattered to widespread tree and powerline damage is likely. Wind gusts of 60+ MPH are most likely between 1-4 PM.

NWS Max Wind Gusts Forecast

The winds will only relent somewhat on Tuesday. Temperatures will also be colder, with wind chill temperature near or just below 0 in the morning and will not improve much during the day. The coldest day of the week is Wednesday, with wind chills -10 to -15 below Wednesday morning. If your power does go out, it may be a few days for it to come back on. These cold temperatures will be living in unheated buildings unrealistic so you may want to consider a backup plan, just in case.

Other Thoughts
I think tomorrow's event will be more widespread in magnitude thanks to the amount of precipitation that has fallen in Southern New England since last summer. Just in Southern Worcester County, observations taken at Worcester Airport and the Blackstone River at Sutton Street/Providence Road in Northbridge show anomalies of + 15.00" since July 1, 2018.

These anomalies exist all across Southern New England. The Quabbin reservoir is 100.6 % full and the Wachusett reservoir is 93% full. It wasn't all that long ago (2-3 years) that moderate to major drought conditions were widespread in New England.

MWRA Quabbin Water Levels Jan 2000-2018

While that is good, the water table is nearly full. The soil has lots of moisture. Again, that is positive on the agricultural side it will also make trees uproot more easily. March and April are also months where we tend to get a lot of rain. It will be interesting to see if the precipitation trend continues. If it does, big river flooding trouble is in our future. In the meantime, stay safe tomorrow.

-Zack Green

This Is Not A Recording; Snow to Ice to Rain Tonight

2019-02-20T06:47:00.000-08:00

Stop me when you've heard this forecast lead before; a fast moving winter storm will start as snow tonight before changing to sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain after midnight. Light snow and ice amounts are expected but the Thursday AM commute is likely to be slippery in Central, Metrowest, and Northeast Massachusetts.

NWS Headlines
The National Weather Service in Norton, MA has issued a *Winter Weather Advisory* from 7 PM this evening until 7 AM Thursday morning for all of Southern New England except for the Cape and Islands.

NWS Boston Headlines

A Winter Weather Advisory means periods of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery conditions and use caution when driving.

General Overview
Strong high pressure is control today. Temperatures started in the single digits and teens and they will rebound in the low to mid 20's. Fun fact- the jet stream is ripping along above our heads. A flight was measured at 801 mph as it got embedded in 200+ mph winds around 35,000 feet up. This is good if you are flying to Europe, bad if you have to fly to the west coast.

00z EURO 300 mb winds Tuesday 7 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

The fast jet will keep traffic in the atmosphere moving along. The high pressure will slide east today as a storm system develops along the Gulf Coast, lifts northeast, and reforms near the Mid-Atlantic coast. High level clouds will increase throughout the day, but precipitation will hold off in Central and Eastern MA until after 7 PM.

WPC Surface Forecast Fronts, Precipitation Wednesday 1 PM, 7 PM, Thursday 1 AM, 7 AM

Cold surface temperatures will linger in Central and Northeast MA all night so it is likely that all precipitation that falls will be frozen north of a Brockton to Foxboro to Smithfield, RI line. However, temperatures on Thursday will rise into the 40's across most of Southern New England so we aren't worried about everything turning to cement.

Timing/Impacts
Snow will begin after 7 PM in Worcester and Boston. Snow will be light from 7 until 10, increasing around 11, and peaking from 12-2 AM. Between 2-3, snow will transition to sleet, freezing rain, and rain. All precipitation ends around 6 AM.

12z HRRR Simulated Radar Wed 4 PM to Thur 7 AM (Image WeatherModels.com)

Although surface temperatures will be in the mid 20's across Central and Northeast MA, warm temperatures aloft will limit the ability for snow growth in the mid layers, limiting snow totals on the ground. That said, a general 2-4" is likely followed by up to 0.10" of ice. Some communities closer to the NH/MA border could see up to 4".

12z HRRR total snow *click to enlarge (Image WeatherModels.com)

For the Thursday AM commute, traffic is lighter than normal this week thanks to school vacation. That will help keep congestion down, but it will still be a slow go. Unlike last weeks storm, precipitation will end closer to 6 AM, which will delay the clean up. I anticipate the main roads being fine, but untreated side roads will be slippery. If you have the option to work from home, it is a not a bad idea to exercise that right. The roads will be fine by the afternoon, but why spend the time commuting when you can be working? (Practicing for my boss).

I will update again if needed.

-ZG

Winter Storm To Significantly Impact Tuesday PM Commute

2019-02-11T13:02:00.001-08:00

A winter storm will bring snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain to Southern New England Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Snow will begin Tuesday afternoon and will fall moderately to heavy at times through the evening commute. Snow will transition to sleet and freezing rain after 7 PM and will change to rain after 1 AM. The rain will end before the Wednesday AM commute.

NWS Headlines

NWS Headlines

A *Winter Storm Watch* is in effect. Some parts of this watch will be converted to a warning, while others will be converted to an advisory. Either way, the impact to the evening commute remains the biggest threat.

General Details

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Monday 7 PM, Tuesday 7 AM, PM, Wednesday 7 AM, PM

High pressure is currently building to the north. Light northerly winds will bring cold, dry air into Southern New England this evening. By morning, temperatures will be in the low to mid-teens. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20's when precipitation arrives as snow Tuesday Afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1-2"/per hour are possible between 3-7 PM.

18z HRRR Sim Radar/P Type Tuesday 7 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Snow transitions to sleet and freezing rain from south to north starting after 6 PM. Warm air will begin to move in aloft. It should reach the Worcester and Boston area after 7 PM. Frozen precipitation will fall until 1-2 AM before finishing as a bit of rain Wednesday morning as surface warming finally catches up to the warming aloft.

Storm Totals
A general 3-6" of snow will fall before the changeover to sleet and freezing rain.

NWS Expected Snowfall (Click to enlarge)

A total of 0.1 to 0.2" of ice accretion is expected, which is below damage thresholds.

NWS Expected Ice (click to enlarge)

Overall, this is not a huge deal except for the snowfall during the Tuesday PM commute. It also adds more water to the system, which is near capacity. If this weather pattern continues, spring flooding is going to be a story around here.

-Zack Green

01.20.19 Winter Storm Live Blog

2019-01-20T04:12:00.001-08:00

Post 1- 659 AM

Good Morning all. Keep your electronics charged today. After around 5" of snow overnight, precipitation has changed over to sleet, freezing rain, and rain. There is a heck of a temperature gradient across the Blackstone Valley right now.

Wunderground Weather Station Temp Data 650 AM

Temperatures are in the teens and low 20's in the 01534 section of Northbridge, Grafton. Sutton, Millbury, Auburn, and Worcester. Temps are in the upper 20's in the Whitinsville section of Northbridge and low 30's in Mendon, Uxbridge, and Blackstone. Here is a zoomed in look at Northbridge.

Wunderground Temperature Station Temp Data 650 AM

There is a 10-degree difference from Linwood Ave to Sutton Street. I will have my eyes glued to this data today. There is a mix of sleet and freezing rain falling right now. Plain rain is so close, in Blackstone and Bellingham.

AccuWeather Boston Local Radar 645 AM

I suspect the rain will make it into Northbridge but I don't see those 15-20 degree temps being dislodged from Douglas, Sutton, Millbury, Auburn, and Worcester. That means a long duration ice event is underway.

Post 2 744 AM

One hour later, and a definitive cooling trend at the surface. The rain line has been pushed back to Franklin, MA. Temps that were 29-30 an hour ago in Northbridge and Uxbridge are now 24/27 degrees. I hope you have a radio ready. I'm going to reach out to Scott Zolak and let him know he may have a bigger audience than usual tonight.

Post 3 852 AM

The power outage map from National Grid can be found here. The MEMA power outage map can be found here. So far, 546 customers are without power in Massachusetts. I do not believe the rain-snow line will make any more progress into Southern Worcester County. If you currently have sleet and freezing rain, you will likely continue with that all day.

So how do we get sleet and freezing rain when its this cold at the surface? We have warm air in a layer above the surface. Its roughly 40 degrees at 5000 feet.

National Weather Service Precipitation Type Temp Profile

Post 4 930 AM

The power outage map is up to 2000 customers. The majority of those are in and around the Boston area. The colder than expected temperatures are actually good in Central Massachusetts. I think we will see more sleet than freezing rain. The freezing rain threat is shifting south towards the Boston to Providence corridor. That doesn't mean we are off the hook in the Blackstone Valley. When the winds increase this afternoon I expect scattered outages.

MEMA Outages map

Elsewhere, a strong band of rain and wind is approaching Southeastern Massachusetts. Some wind damage will be possible as that reaches Martha's Vineyard and Buzzards Bay.

COD Weather Center NEXRAD 1 km Radar

Some heavier precipitation will arrive in Southern Worcester County over the next 1-3 hours.

Post 5 1055 AM

The latest forecast from the National Weather Service calls for an additional 0.25-0.50 inches of ice accreditation through 7 PM tonight.

NWS Additional Ice Accumulation Forecast

This would be a moderate to major winter event according to a new experimental National Weather Service product.

Ice Storm Severity Index (New and Experimental)

A Flash Freeze is a major threat in SE MA, RI, and CT.

Flash Freeze Severity Index (New and Experimental)

The radar suggests that the heaviest precipitation is yet to come for Southern Worcester County into Northeast Massachusetts. Look at this moisture feed.

COD Weather Center NEXRAD 2 km radar 11 AM

This heavy precipitation will increase the amount of ice on the power lines and tree limbs.

Post 6 1245 PM

A *Wind Chill Advisory* has been issued from tonight at 9 PM until tomorrow at 12 PM. Here is the text from the National Weather Service.

Air temperatures will be near 0 with winds gusting to 30 MPH out of the NW.

-ZG

Final Thoughts As Winter Storm Approaches Region

2019-01-19T13:38:00.001-08:00

The National Weather Service in Norton, MA has issued a *Winter Storm Warning* for Western, Central and Northeastern Massachusetts. A *Winter Weather Advisory* has been issued for Connecticut, Rhode Island, and parts Southeastern Massachusetts.

NWS Headlines Saturday 3 PM

Each subregion of Southern New England (SNE) faces unique hazards from this storm system. The biggest snow totals will be confined to Northern New England but over a foot is possible in Northwest Massachusetts. The highest totals in Central and Eastern MA will be in the communities along the NH/MA border, away from the immediate coast. Meanwhile, river, coastal, and flash flooding are all hazards along the South Coast, Cape, and Islands. Some minor river flooding is possible in parts of Rhode Island. In the middle, where most people reading this blog live, we will see snow, sleet, freezing rain, and even plain rain. The snow will be heavy at times, the sleet will heavy at times, and the freezing rain/rain will be heavy at times. Got all that? Let's break it down.

Timing

Precipitation begins as snow starting around 7 PM. Flurries this afternoon shouldn't stick to the roads. Snow will be flying everywhere, including the Cape and Islands, by 10 PM. Snow will begin to stick around this time too. Temperatures inland will be in the mid to upper 20's. After midnight, the snow/mix/rain line begins to advance north as warmer air surges in. Sleet gets into Northern RI/South Central MA around 4 AM. This line gets to Worcester/Framingham/Boston by 5 AM and into the Lowell/Lawerence area by 7 AM. South of the Pike in Eastern MA and all of RI will be plain rain by 8 AM.

18z HRRR precip type/qpf Sat 7 PM- Sun 6 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Freezing rain will develop in CT and Central/Western MA around 7-8 AM. 0.25-0.40 inches of ice is possible which is not good for travel or the power grid, especially with 30-40 MPH wind gusts. The latest computer models are pretty warm so hopefully, we flip to plain rain tomorrow in the Blackstone Valley. However, this wouldn't happen until late morning/early afternoon, and we will finish with freezing rain tomorrow evening so travel will be very difficult tomorrow. But, we could save ourselves the tree/powerline problems.

How Much Snow/Ice/Precipitation?

Snow

Expected Snow (via NWS Boston)

Plowable snow for sure, falling fast between midnight and 4 AM.

Ice

Expected Ice (via NWS Boston)

Tomorrow morning through early evening. There is high uncertainty with this forecast.

In total, there will be 2-3" of precipitation with this system.

Frigid Monday

With all that liquid on the ground, a flash freeze will occur regionwide tomorrow evening. Any untreated surfaces will become skating rinks. Temperatures will drop into the single digits by Monday morning and will stay there. Wind chill temperatures on Monday will be below zero. It will be a miserable day to be outside.

Thank You NWS Employees
If you want me to just "stick to the weather", have a great day, thanks for reading! I have something I need to get off my chest and I'm getting political.

The National Weather Service is working without pay during this government shutdown. Yes, they will get back pay but a lot of people live paycheck to paycheck or pretty close. I feel for the younger employees like me, several of whom are friends of mine. I would not be able to run this blog without the products and messaging from the National Weather Service. During the duration of the government shutdown, I have not noticed any problems with NWS or the data they offer. It is a testament to their commitment to their job. They had to endure this hatchet piece from the Washington Post which ran for 11 days before someone finally published a correction. That correction was prompted by AccuWeather who wrote a rather tasteless, shameless promotion of their own product. AccuWeather's tone was bad, but when the well known and highly regarded WaPo writes a story like that, I'm not sure you can fault a private company for trying to capitalize/respond after an anonymous source told the WaPo, "You're forecast will suffer!"

The weather community rallied to the NWS's defense after the AccuWeather article. AccuWeather updated the story and made it softer. That is a good thing. As I stated above, all of the meteorology community relies on the public sector as the leading communicator for watches and warnings, as well as data for the GFS, NAM, HRRR and other weather models. There wasn't a need to kick them when they are down. However, there were crickets with a few minor exceptions, most notably Dr. Ryan Maue, after the WaPo hit piece.

This headline is still up -- and is quite unfortunate especially with the top-notch efforts by our (unpaid) National Weather Service staff.

The forecasts for this dangerous Winter Storm will not be worse! pic.twitter.com/7EhN1pSoyq
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 18, 2019

AccuWeather's CEO Barry Myers stepped down on January 1 and has been nominated by President Trump to take over as the director of NOAA. AccuWeather has also rubbed people in the meteorological community the wrong way for it's 45 and 90-day forecasts, and issuing their own warnings to clients for tornadoes. The meteorological community is heavily slanted towards left-leaning folks, often with pressure from the academic climate change community. The vitriol towards AccuWeather came out this week. After silence on the WaPo story, a weather twitter mob swarmed upon the State College, PA based company. This tells me that folks in the weather community are okay with smearing the NWS if you blame in on the orange man in the White House. It shows that like everything else, meteorology is politicized. The AccuWeather piece has hurt some feelings, while the Washington Post article was downright harmful to the meteorological community and to the amount of faith people (or lack thereof) have in meteorologists to get the forecast right. It's a shame the reaction wasn't to call out the Post immediately after the article.

I'll do my absolute best to keep politics out of my blogs. Sometimes, I just can't.

-Zack Green

Winter Storm Watch Issued For Sunday, Heavy Precipitation Expected

2019-01-17T13:12:00.001-08:00

The National Weather Service in Norton, MA has issued a *Winter Storm Watch* from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening. Expected hazards include snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

NWS Headlines 01.17.19 330 PM

Without further ado...

Short Term Forecast

Some light snow will move in tonight, with little to no accumulation. There could be some slick spots on the road tomorrow but it should be no problem. Temperatures will max in the upper 30's/low 40's and we might even see some sun by tomorrow afternoon. Temps Saturday will be in the 20's as we set the table for the winter sandwich of precipitation that is to come on Sunday.

Part 1 Saturday 8 PM- Sunday 5 AM

Snow begins to fly after 8 PM Saturday night. Most of Southern New England is snowing by 10 PM, with the exception the immediate South Coast, Cape, and Islands where it will mix/rain. Snow intensity peaks between 11 PM and 4 AM in Northern Rhode Island and Southern Worcester County. By 3 AM, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will begin marching north through CT/RI/and SE MA. Snow will begin to change to sleet and freezing rain in Northern RI/Southern Worcester County after 4 AM, with a complete change over by 5 AM.

12z ECMWF 1 hour precip type/MSLP Saturday 6 PM- Sunday 5 AM (image WeatherModels.com)

The majority of the snow that will fall in Central and Eastern MA, RI, and CT will fall during this overnight time frame. Expect 5-10" with higher amounts near and north of Worcester and lighter amounts closer to Providence.

Part 2 Sunday 5 AM- Sunday 5 PM

Periods of sleet, freezing rain, and rain. The rain is likely confined to Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket counties in MA as well as most of RI and SE CT. Elsewhere, there is a 30% chance of at least 0.25" of ice accretion from freezing rain for a good swath of CT, RI, and MA.

WPC Freezing Rain Probability 24 hours prior to Sunday 7 PM

This is significant threat to travel and the power grid. Snow is one thing, sleet is a bit annoying as it increases the weight to plow/shovel/snow blow, but freezing rain can cause long duration power problems. Winds will gust 20-35 MPH during the day when this freezing rain is falling. That isn't a big deal usually, but when trees and power lines are being weighed down by ice it becomes a greater issue.

12z ECMWF 1 hour precip type/MSLP Sunday 5 AM- Sunday 5 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Now there is hope that this model is overdoing the freezing rain and just get a sleet bomb out of this. The American NAM model has lots of sleet and just a narrow band of freezing rain. Either way it will be slippery, sloppy, and messy, but we won't have to deal with damage to the power grid in a sleet storm. Somebody, even if it is localized, is going to get a long ice storm out of this I am afraid.

Part 3- Sunday Evening-Monday

The system will end with 1-3" of snow and temperatures falling into the single digits/below 0 as we settle in to watch the AFC Championship Game.

Takeaways

Be prepared to lose power for a few days. It will be brutally cold on Monday and Tuesday. Then root for sleet or rain instead of freezing rain. We'll talk tomorrow and I can take questions after 8 PM on my Facebook page.

-Zack Green

Winter Returns With A Vengeance

2019-01-16T12:35:00.002-08:00

If you are a member of my Facebook weather group (Blackstone Valley Weather Service- please like and share if you enjoy my work), you know that I was skeptical that we could see a big snowstorm this weekend. Most of the storms this season have cut to our west and brought plain rain. When the computer models started to show that happening again, it seemed reasonable. Well something changed last night. Specifically, the low pressure center that will lift out of the Southern Plains is now modeled to move along the South Coast, instead of to our west. That changes the temperature profile from warm to cold. That would mean more snow and ice. I wanted to see the morning model runs before posting today. When I saw the Euro model this morning....

(Super Troopers, h/t @chrishamptonwx)

Is there any snow before this weekend?
Yes! Some light snow will fall overnight Thursday into Friday AM. Worcester will probably have a two hour delay because, well, that's all it takes in that city. Everyone else will be able to handle it but salt and sand trucks will need to do a quick treatment of the roads.

01.16.19 12z NAM 3 km P-type Friday 5 AM (image WeatherModels.com)

What are we facing this weekend?
A multi-faceted winter storm that will bring a heavy thump of snow and then a change over to sleet/freezing rain/rain for some, before finishing everywhere as snow. This part of my thinking has not changed. The difference now is that the thump of snow will be fast and furious and will hold on longer. Unfortunately, the Blackstone Valley is right on the line between all snow, freezing rain, and rain. The exact forecast will come into clearer focus tomorrow.

When will it start?
Snow will begin Saturday night, increasing in intensity after midnight.

When will it end?
After snowing into Sunday morning, a change to sleet and freezing rain will occur in parts of the region. I'm not going to try and nail this today, but just know the Blackstone Valley, RI/CT, and SE MA all have a chance to see a long period of sleet and freezing rain. It will go over to snow Sunday afternoon as the storm pulls away and Arctic air rushes in behind the system. Snow may linger until Monday morning.

What will the temperatures be?
North of the Mass Pike, freezing. South of the Mass Pike, it can be 10 degrees in one town and 35 degrees two towns over. Everyone gets cold Sunday afternoon. By Monday morning, most people are near 0 with many communities below 0.

Will it be windy?
There will be wind gusts in excess of 35 MPH at times. Blowing snow will help to limit visibility.

What kind of snow are we getting? Snowball/snowman snow, cement, or fluffy?
It depends how much mixing we get. Where it is all snow it will be light and fluffy. If just sleet mixes in, it will be a nice mix of fluff and snowball type snow. Where there is prolonged icing or rain, there will be cement snow.

Will there be power outages?
Unfortunately, yes. Have a backup plan for the championship games.

How much snow can I expect?
Its looking significant. I don't really do snow maps this early, but at least a foot is on the table in most communities. The longer it snows, the more you get. It's about time...

This storyline almost at an end. It's been real. No quieter winter on record Dec 1 to MLK Weekend. Time to move on and start the season. #wbz pic.twitter.com/GhxgW1yBJM
— Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) January 16, 2019

I'll have much more tomorrow. Winter has returned. Let's go!

(TB 12, obviously)

Rain Ending As Snow For The Blackstone Valley Tuesday

2018-11-19T13:10:00.000-08:00

Tomorrow is Tuesday and surprise, surprise...precipitation is in the forecast. WBZ went back and found that there has been measurable precipitation on 9 of the last 11 Tuesdays.

Climbing the rainy ranks...Top 5 Fall for number of days with rain/snow (and climbing) AND Tomorrow will be our 9th rainy Tuesday in the last 11 pic.twitter.com/d5UdKPwLhf
— Terry Eliasen (@TerryWBZ) November 19, 2018

For many north and west of 495, tomorrows precipitation comes in the form of snow. While all rain is on the table in Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts, Southern Worcester County, Southeast Middlesex County, and Essex County will deal with mostly rain but there will be mixing at times before ending as a coating to 1-2" of snow. We clear out Wednesday before historic cold invades for Thanksgiving.

Headlines
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Northern Worcester County, parts of Western MA, Southern VT, Southern NH, and Southern ME.

NWS Monday PM Headlines

I would add Northwest Middlesex County to this and I would also add Northern Essex County to this and they may be added this evening or tomorrow AM. There are no headlines for the Blackstone Valley and I don't anticipate any being issued, although untreated roads will get slippery tomorrow afternoon.

General Overview
Another wave of low pressure will track along the Southern New England coast, increasing in strength as it does so. Snow begins to fly near the MA/NH/VT boarder just after midnight. A few showers will be possible in the Blackstone Valley at this time but most of the precipitation holds off until 5-6 AM. Even in the Valley, some precipitation may fall as sleet or freezing rain but the predominant p-type will be rain. I will urge caution when traveling.

WPC Surface Fronts/Precip Tuesday 7 AM. 1 PM, 7 PM

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30's and will fall a bit during the day. So as we get to the afternoon, the snow that will be falling north and west of 495/Pike will sag south and east. This change happens in the Blackstone Valley late Tuesday AM.

18z HRRR Simulated Radar Monday 8 PM to Tuesday 9 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Tuesday night we start to head towards Mid-Winter type temperatures as an Arctic air mass invites itself over for Thanksgiving dinner. More on this tomorrow.

Timing and Impacts
From the Pike to Rt 2, I expect 2-4" of snow, including the city of Worcester. 3-6" amounts are likely in extreme Northern MA and into Southern VT, NH, and ME. I also expect 2-4" around Lawrence, Haverhill, and Methuen. Snow could briefly fall at rates of 1"/hr in these spots late morning and early afternoon. I am only expecting a coating to 2" around and just south of the Pike. This image is from the HRRR model and I think it is spot on. (Note- Click to enlarge all photos.)

18z HRRR 36-hour Snowfall (image WeatherModels.com)

It always amazes me how many people in New England have vehicles that do not perform well in the snow. Its also early in the season so not everyone has their snow tires yet. As a result, that coating to an inch in the Blackstone Valley can very easily screw up traffic. The take home message is to give yourself some extra time for both commutes tomorrow. It looks like it is going to be a long winter.

-Zack Green

Winter Storm Warning Now Issued For Worcester County

2018-11-15T09:47:00.001-08:00

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Winter Storm Headlines Issued Ahead of Thursday-Friday Storm

2018-11-14T16:07:00.001-08:00

The National Weather Service in Norton, MA has issued a *Winter Storm Watch* for interior Southern New England a *Winter Weather Advisory* for communities inside 495 and RI/S CT.

NWS Boston Headlines (CLICK TO ENLARGE)

The watch begins at 7 PM tomorrow evening and continues until 7 AM on Friday. There is little doubt that precipitation begins as snow. The snow will change to sleet and freezing rain and eventually plain rain. The exact timing of this transition is still a bit of a wild card. Many communities will also end as snow Friday morning/early Friday afternoon as the storm races into the Gulf of Maine. The highest uncertainty is from Hartford to Worcester to Lowell where 6+" of snow is possible if it stays all snow. Let's discuss.

General Overview

WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Thur 7 AM, 7 PM Fri 7 AM, 7 PM

The storm system will lift northeast tomorrow, spreading snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain up the Eastern Seaboard. Working in favor of snow is the cold air mass already in place across the Northeast. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 20's/low 30's. By 7 PM temperatures will be back in the upper 20's. That sets the stage for frozen precipitation to begin as the storm begins to reform near the Mid-Atlantic coast.

18z NAM 3km Sim Radar/P-Type Thurs 7 PM (image Tropical Tidbits)

The majority of the snow falls during the 7 PM-midnight time frame. Solutions diverge as the clock turns to Friday. The EURO model makes this a Cinderella snow and keeps the fun going past midnight. The American NAM turns it into Sleet-fest 2018. The NAM has trended a bit colder in its latest run. Working in the NAM's favor is the calendar. The "warm" sea surface temperatures mean any wind from the east will end the snow and cause a change over to sleet and then plain rain. A storm track along Long Island and over the Cape would also favor a change over to sleet and then rain or drizzle.

This is the EURO at 11 PM tomorrow night.

12z EURO P-Type/Mean Sea Level Pressure Thurs 11 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

The NAM at the same time.

18z NAM 3km P-Type (image WeatherModels.com)

What is causing these differences? Subtle differences in the temperature profile, which is not uncommon at this time range. The calendar and the track of the low certainly favors a change to sleet and rain. Despite that, the temperature profile does support heavy snow especially with heavy precipitation. So where does that leave us?

Impacts/Totals

If you are traveling home from Hartford or Providence, leave a bit early as the beginning of the snow will fall at the end of the evening rush. The commute from Boston and Worcester should be fine.

The initial burst of snow will drop 2-4" of snow, with rates near 1"/hr between 9 PM-12 AM. As the upper levels warm, snow changes to sleet and then freezing rain or drizzle. It will be tough to dislodge the cold so this will likely continue until sunrise. This happens first in RI and Eastern Massachusetts, especially inside 95/128. Then it will work towards 495, the Pike, and Rt 2. An extra hour or two of snow means an extra inch or two of snow. As the precipitation intensity decreases, the snow/sleet will turn to drizzle or freezing drizzle. This really is a mess!

Allow of extra time Friday morning because the commute will be slow, especially those coming from Central and Northeast MA. For school administrators and public works departments, my advice is to plan for 4-7" of snow as well as 2-3" of snow followed by sleet and freezing rain. Here are the NWS totals for both snow and ice.

NWS Snow/Ice Forecast (CLICK TO ENLARGE)

As the storm departs late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon expect one final round of rain south of the Pike and snow north of it. Winds increase behind the storm and cold air returns for the weekend. I will be at a conference tomorrow but I will get an update on the blog one way or another.

-Zack Green

Stormy Pattern Continues, First Snow Likely For Many Thursday Night

2018-11-13T08:39:00.001-08:00

When I look into your eyes

I can see a love restrained

But darlin' when I hold you

Don't you know I feel the same

Nothin' lasts forever

And we both know hearts can change

And it's hard to hold a candle

In the cold November rain

(If you now have Guns N' Roses in your head and have 10 minutes to kill, you can find the music video for November Rain here.)

Rain has been a constant theme so far this fall, continuing a pattern that declared itself in July. Since July, Worcester is averaging 5.7" of precipitation per month! That does not include the 4.94" that has fallen so far in November, which doesn't include today. We have a 6" precipitation surplus over the past 5 months and that will only grow as November progresses. Flooding has not yet been a major issue. So far, the spacing between these rain events has been long enough to allow for the rivers to breathe. Even with today's event, most predictions keep the Blackstone River in its banks over the next 7 days. You can check on your local rivers here.

WSI Intellicast Northeast Regional Radar 930 AM

This storm system is helping to kick off what will be a banner week for Thanksgiving skiing in Northern New England. The rain will end early this afternoon in Southern New England with clearing skies and a sharp temperature drop this evening. Temperatures tonight will fall into the teens in NH, VT, and ME and into the mid 20's across MA, CT, and RI. Max temperatures tomorrow will struggle to get into the mid 30's in Central and Western MA. Temps will be in the upper 30's across CT, RI, and Eastern MA.

NDFD 2 m max temperatures Wednesday (image WeatherModels.com)

Temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be in teens most places. Even across the Cape and Islands temps should be in the mid 20's.

NDFD 2 m min temps Thursday AM (image WeatherModels.com)

High pressure will be in control so mostly sunny skies will accompany the winter blast on Wednesday. The high will begin to be pushed to the east by a developing storm system in the Southeast US. By Thursday AM, a sprawling, messy system with lots of moisture will begin moving northeast. High clouds will also arrive prior to the precipitation. Thursday afternoon will feel and look a lot like winter.

WPC Surface Fronts and Precipitation Thursday 7 AM

The Thursday evening commute should be just fine in Southern New England, although I will be watching the trends. Temperatures Thursday will struggle to get out of the low 30's and will be dropping into the mid to upper 20's by Thursday evening. The cold, dense air mass will tough to dislodge initially so everyone in Southern New England begins as snow.

12z NAM WRF Hi-Res Simulated Precipitation Type Thursday 7 PM (image WeatherModels.com)

Some snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain as the storm tracks near Long Island and across the Cape and Islands. The snow will quickly turn to plain rain across Eastern MA and Southern RI just after midnight. Snow will hold on a bit longer in Worcester County before turning over to rain before 5 AM south of the Pike. Snow turns to sleet, freezing rain, and then plain rain around 7 AM south of Route 2. I'll have to watch the Merrimack Valley in case cold air holds on longer than currently modeled, as history tells us it may. Rain will continue through the early afternoon, maybe ending as some snow/sleet/freezing rain before tapering off.

The Bottom Line

Snow begins after 7 PM on Thursday. Accumulating snow falls from around midnight to 4 AM in Southern Worcester County. Accumulations of 1-3" are likely. A brief burst of sleet and freezing rain is possible between 4-6 AM before going over to all rain. Although annoying, with a little bit of extra time everyone should be able to get where they need to go. Consider this our "fall training" for winter.

-I will update tomorrow with the latest trends and timing and the all important snow accumulation map.

-Zack Green

The Blackstone Valley Dodged A Bullet

2018-07-27T06:47:00.000-07:00

- The Blackstone Valley dodged a bullet with the twin 7/26 tornadoes. They were bad enough and its almost a miracle that there are no injuries.

Pine Grove Cematary Whitinsville, MA (image Steve Falconer)

Nocturnal Tornado

The 230 AM arrival time meant most people were sleeping. Nocturnal tornadoes account for only 27% of all tornadoes, but they are responsible for 39% of all tornado deaths.

No Tornado Warning

The National Weather Service issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at 232 AM. It arrived at 232 according to the NWS Public Information Statement about the tornadoes. A Tornado Warning would likely have triggered the emergency alert feature on many cell phones. There was no real warning.
I don't blame the NWS. They issued the Severe Thunderstorm Warning when the velocity scan reached the threshold for severe wind. It was a unique small supercell as the SPC Mesoscale Discussion called it, but not until 3 AM. This was on no one's radar.
MEMA claiming that there was warning is technically true, but they are fortunate there were no causalities. A severe thunderstorm warning issued as the storm hit containing the language "a tornado is possible" isn't adequate warning for a nocturnal tornado.

Lack of Lightning

The largely uncomfortable tropical air mass ensured air conditioning units would be running on high. With no thunder to roar over the a/c's, residents woke up to trees slamming against their homes or crashing in the woods. I saw a lot of people on social media saying that they did not even know there was a storm.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Framingham MA, Milford MA, Whitinsville MA until 3:00 AM EDT pic.twitter.com/mrfYnPYgBS

— NWS Severe Tstorm (@NWSSevereTstorm) July 26, 2018

Tornado Track Avoided Densely Populated Areas

There is significant damage to dozens of residences. If the storm had tracked in a route where the 4.4 miles took it from the Village to Rockdale in Northbridge, several hundred to even over a thousand families could have suffered structural damage to their homes or apartments. An even worse track would be the second tornado then tracking down in Grafton or Millbury.

Tornado likely touched down in Douglas, traveled through Northbridge, lifted and then touched back down in Upton...considered two tornadoes in the record books but likely one that just re-touched...again more at 5p from @NWSBoston pic.twitter.com/PFYPc56OX7
— Terry Eliasen (@TerryWBZ) July 26, 2018

Tornadoes sine 1950

Douglas- 1 (7/26/18 EF-1)
Uxbridge 1(7/26/18 EF-0)
Northbridge 2 (6/9/53 EF-3, 7/26/18 EF-0)
Upton 1 (7/26/18 EF-1)

Tropical Air Mass Continues

Tropical air thanks to south/southwest winds will continue Friday and Saturday. Severe weather looks to stay in Western MA and Northern CT on Friday with damaging winds and flash flooding as primary hazards. Storms will weaken as they approach the Blackstone Valley. That said, high resolution guidance is holding these storms together in Rhode Island and Southeast MA through midnight, especially towards the coast.

11z HRRR Simulated Radar Through Saturday 1 AM (image WeatherModels.com)

Additional storms may fire Friday as the triggering cold front will be slow to push offshore, largely thanks to stubborn Bermuda High. Saturday afternoon humidity should decrease we the region gets a small break from the oppressive air.

Until next time.

-Zack Green

National Weather Service Confirms 2 Separate Tornadoes in the Blackstone Valley

2018-07-26T14:39:00.000-07:00

The National Weather Service in Norton has confirmed that two separate tornadoes touched down in the Blackstone Valley early this morning. The twin twisters were each rated at EF-1 with winds of 100 MPH. The first touched down in Douglas and tracked through Uxbridge and into Northbridge before lifting up around Lasell Field and Pine Grove Cemetery. A second tornado touched down in West Upton around Main Street.

Severe weather in Southern New England is just different than the rest of the country. Rare is the big discrete supercell thunderstorm that is common in the Midwest and Southern US. They do happen; the 1953 outbreak that produced the infamous EF-4 Worcester tornado and the EF-3 Sutton-Northbridge-Mendon tornado (by my records the last tornado to track through Northbridge) were classic supercell thunderstorms. This storm was anything but. I didn't see a single flash of lightning. But it is consistent with a few tornadoes that have hit Massachusetts in the past few years. The Concord, MA twister of 2017 and the Revere tornado of 2014 immediately come to mind.

Last night's Worcester County tornadoes occurred where they typically do. Right along a triple point just east of a weak mesolow that formed off the Mid Atlantic. About 200 unites of 0-1km helicity shows strong low level wind shear. #nbcct pic.twitter.com/5qhnTYn2RL
— Ryan Hanrahan (@ryanhanrahan) July 26, 2018

But it really does sound like a train when a tornado moves through. As I outlined in my last post, I was lucky enough to be thirsty for a drink of water around 2 AM last night. I always envisioned my first tornado to be in the Midwest somewhere on a chase-vacation. I missed one in 2013 in which friends and classmates of mine were able to see a tornado in Kansas (I think). It was pitch black so I didn't see a classic tornado but I think I'm all set seeing one now that I can see what an EF-1 tornado can do.

Here is the NWS write-up for tornado number 1.

Here is tornado number 2.

To all my new readers who joined today welcome. I blog full time in the winter but only sporadically in spring, summer, and fall. But when life-threatening weather hits I will also post. Here are some pictures from Douglas, Uxbridge, and Northbridge (I covered Upton this morning before I realized what actually happened in my own backyard).

Courtesy of @Since_1896, some damage at Pine Grove Cemetery in Whitinsville from the early morning storm. #MAwx pic.twitter.com/07gMx4Gub6
— Zack Green (@zgreenwx) July 26, 2018

Investigating possible tornado touchdown in Douglas this morning. No injuries. Lots of trees down with lots of twisting damage. pic.twitter.com/J8QpdhCOwJ
— Douglas Fire Dept. (@DeptDouglas) July 26, 2018

What we are seeing in Douglas. Awaiting official word from NWS on if this was indeed a tornado. @wpri12 pic.twitter.com/ibg8mPKWgS
— Kait Walsh (@KaitLouiseWalsh) July 26, 2018

Widespread Wind Damage in Upton After Wild Storm

2018-07-26T05:04:00.002-07:00

Main St now open to traffic. Storm damage isolated to section of Main St, Warren St & Ephraims Way. 10 residents displaced from damaged home will be assisted by @RedCrossMA. @nationalgridus working to restore existing outages. DPW working to clear obstructed roadways. pic.twitter.com/9Bu63Nmuhb
— Upton Police Dept (@UptonPolice) July 26, 2018

A small section of Upton, MA is recovering this morning after a severe thunderstorm brought severe damage to Main Street, Warren Street, and Ephraims Way around 240 AM. National Weather Service survey teams will investigate to determine whether or not this damage has been caused by a tornado or a microburst. Early indications are that this is a tornado, but the final assessment is to be done by the NWS.

Upton: daylight reveals a better picture of the very confined damage on Main Street. This tree and another that are down are not tipped in the same direction. While that alone doesn’t confirm a tornado, it does suggest rotation. pic.twitter.com/8Q1oEypeBY
— Michael Page (@MichaelPageWx) July 26, 2018

I woke up around 2 AM to get a drink of water and since I knew some intense weather was possible, I checked the radar. What I found was a developing supercell thunderstorm with weak rotation heading directly towards Uxbridge, Northbridge, and Upton.

Radarscope KBOX radar 220 AM

The hook just south of Uxbridge in the top image and the hint of bright green next to the brighter red in the same spot in the bottom image instantly caught my attention. This indicated rotation as the red and green colors measure the direction and velocity of upper level winds. At this point the rotation is still weak. However, any strengthening of the rotation could produce a weak tornado or a microburst. Just 5 minutes later as the cell crossed into Uxbridge that is exactly what happened.

This is interesting... pic.twitter.com/34B5Yy36dp
— Zack Green (@zgreenwx) July 26, 2018

I went out to my porch and around 235 AM there was a 30-45 second burst of intense rain and gusty winds, but no immediately obvious damage occurred in my section of Whitinsville . Just after passing through my area the rotation tightened even more. I was concerned about the Riverdale and Rockdale sections of Northbridge. Meteorologists from Alabama and Oklahoma started to tweet me expressing concern over what they were seeing on the radar.

I was eyeing this down too. Pretty well defined couplet for something you might see in MA... pic.twitter.com/6Aoy6wvOiV
— Tucker Antico (@tuckerweather) July 26, 2018

Yeah that was definitely a TDS. No-doubter. #mawx pic.twitter.com/KSeqpuNeuu
— Tony Lyza (@tlyzawx) July 26, 2018

This is all meteorological jargon so if you can't follow along that is OK, that is what we went to school for. The point is, this was no ordinary severe thunderstorm for Massachusetts. The National Weather Service did issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at 232 AM. In the warning it says a tornado is possible, although no official tornado warning was issued.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Framingham MA, Milford MA, Whitinsville MA until 3:00 AM EDT pic.twitter.com/mrfYnPYgBS
— NWS Severe Tstorm (@NWSSevereTstorm) July 26, 2018

Shortly after the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK issued a "mesoscale discussion" noting the potential for isolated tornadoes.

SPC MCD

Not long after I saw Upton PD tweet about numerous emergency calls around Glen Ave and Main Street. I'm glad the damage is isolated, but it is significant for the folks who were hit. There have been no reports of injuries thankfully. I haven't been to bed (save for a 25 minute nap on the train) so I will be going to get a coffee. I'll have more on this later after the NWS survey is complete.

-Zack Green

Back To My Roots

2018-06-01T07:46:00.000-07:00

June 1 is a significant day in meteorology both locally and across the Western Hemisphere. It was 7 years ago today a devastating severe weather outbreak began in the morning hours in Central/Eastern MA/Northern RI and was capped by a high end EF-3 tornado that tore through Springfield and into Southwestern Worcester County. I graduated from college just days prior with no job prospects in the field of meteorology (at the time I blamed the job market- in hindsight I should have done more with the opportunities that were available to me in college). June 1, 2011 inspired me to start a blog which I did a week later right here at this exact address newenglandwx.blogspot.com. I wasn't "in the field", but I was still actively practicing the science of meteorology. I was looking to justify the money my parents and I spent on my education and this filled that role for me.

I blogged off and on for 6 years covering events such as Hurricane Irene, the 2011 Halloween Snowstorm, Hurricane Sandy, the Blizzard of 2013, the Blizzard of 2015 (and that entire crazy winter), as well as the 2016 drought and countless other smaller weather events. It led to a short lived role as a national blogger for a storm chasing company called Tornado Titans. By June 2017 page clicks were up and I decided to get bold and pull the trigger on something I have always wanted to try; my own meteorology website. I purchased a domain name and attempted to sell premium weather content. I moved the platform to WordPress and established Blackstone Valley Weather Service. Page views quickly plummeted as I put content behind a paywall. And I get it. Why pay for weather when there are so many places to get it for free?

Eventually I dropped the paywall and the page views returned in force this winter. But I wasn't going to keep the blackstonevalleyweatherservice.com domain. I spent a lot of money trying to get the new page started but with no money coming back to me it is not sustainable. On top of that I took a new job as a consultant in the environmental/engineering/atmospheric science world so I have event less time than I did before to commit to growing revenue. The domain name is also too long. Next time I launch a new site, and there will be a next time, the name will be short and to the point. I learned a lot trying and ultimately, for now, failing to start a business. The "business" side failed but the blog grew. Facebook likes are approaching 800 people and page views in March were AWESOME.

So what is next? For now I will return to my roots right here on Blogger. I have missed blogging. There is something that is therapeutic about talking about the weather. As I look back at some of my past work, I'm proud of the effort I put in and look forward to delivering more quality work to my readers in the future. Today is not only the anniversary of the 2011 New England Tornado outbreak but also marks the beginning of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season. Although slightly odd for a New England meteorologist, I've always been enthralled by Hurricanes. Today just feels like the right time to start blogging again.

Sara replaces Sandy on this list. Sandy is just the 4th name from the original 1982 list to replaced.

Gordon replaced Gilbert and Joyce replaced Joan after the 1988 season. Kirk replaced Keith after the 2000 season. In comparison, the 2023 list is full of retirements.

Being the list for the deadly 2005 and 2017 have allowed for this list to stray far from the original in 1981. Past performance of the list has nothing to do with the upcoming season of course. There is hope for a quiet season thanks to cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic. If this persists, it would help to limit tropical development between the Western African coast and the Caribbean islands. After Irma and Maria, I certainly hope this is true.

OSPO Global SSTA 5/31/18 (image NOAA)

For comparison here is 6/1/17. Notice the abundance of warmer than normal water between the islands and Africa.

OSPO Global SSTA 6/1/17 (image NOAA)

Most forecasts are calling for an average season with 10-14 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. We've already had one named storm, Alberto. Alberto tracked northward from the Western Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall along the Northern Gulf Coast on Monday. The storm tracked into the Great Lakes. The remnant energy is in Eastern Canada and is indirectly responsible for the humid weather today and tomorrow.

A few showers will be possible this afternoon with dew points in the low 70's. Saturday will be similar but a cold front will drop south late tomorrow afternoon/early evening. Tomorrow is not a washout and should be dry for the majority of the afternoon. Temperatures cool down on Sunday as the pattern changes to a cooler and potentially wetter regime.

Thanks for reading and welcome back.

-Zack Green