New York Metro Weather

A farewell, and a welcome

2012-05-01T12:41:00.001-04:00

We have spent the good portion of the past five years establishing ourselves here at blogger -- and we've had a great time doing it. Our users, views, and interest has increased dramatically over the past few years, and we've been excited to move forward in developing our website and organization. With that said, meteorology organizations are ahead of the pack technologically, and we were beginning to feel a bit constrained at a ".blogspot.com" address.

Today, we are announcing our move to our own web domain and a completely re-built website at www.nymetroweather.com. We have spent a long time thinking over our options, and have invested in the development of our new website. The overall format of the website will remain the same, with the same products available. However, the new look and added functionality will open up an entirely new word for commenting, messaging, and interaction. In addition, you will now be able to register as a member and get access to some more technical and staff-specific products, as well as interact with our staff directly. Our products (yes, even the member-only ones) will remain free.

We'd like to thank blogger for their help and support over the past few years. They have offered us a terrific amount of help and a wonderful system. This website will remain active for the next few months -- with this blog post as a headline. However, all future updates will be posted on the new web address.

We invite you to come join us as we continue our mission as an organization, and we hope you are as excited as we are about the new look and website!

Click here to view the new website (don't forget to bookmark it!)

- New York Metro Weather's Staff

Cooler/unsettled weather behind big nor'easter

2012-04-23T13:35:00.000-04:00

Behind the strong storm system which impacted our area this weekend, the weather will take a turn towards a cooler and slightly more unsettled pattern. Prior to the system, above normal temperatures and fair weather were dominant, but as it looks now this storm will serve as a bit of a pattern-changer. It doesn't look like we'll return to much-above normal departures any time soon. Instead, forecast models are indicative of a bit of a battleground setting up near our area, as a gradient develops in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Such an event would likely mean more chances for precipitation, and temperatures running near normal for this time of year (with, of course, some fluctuations). This week, showers will be around to start as an upper air trough lingers behind the strong storm system. It looks like high temperatures will warm up a bit as we approach Thursday, where they may spike into the mid/upper 60's. But shortly thereafter, showers and a cold front will work back into the forecast, and bring cooler weather again for the weekend ahead. Pictured right: GFS model showing a "gradient" near our area later this week and this weekend. On the left, we see the mid-level heights in the atmosphere, and on the right, we can see the 6 hour precipitation and 850mb temperatures. Notice the temperature gradient near our area and precipitation near a warm front.

Article written by JH. Published April 23rd, 2012 at 1:30pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Strong storm to impact the area this weekend

2012-04-21T00:55:00.002-04:00

The first significant storm system in several months will directly impact the area beginning Saturday night and continuing through Monday. In fact, it will likely bring an end to drought conditions which have been present in parts of the area for weeks. Our area has experienced a rather prolonged period of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation which will end with this storm system. A phase in the mid levels of the atmosphere will force the rapid development of a very strong low pressure area off the East Coast. The storm will eventually strengthen and tug inland near the New York City area. Such a track -- with such a strong storm system -- will set the stage for a period of very heavy rain, some wind, and thunderstorms. Pictured right: NAM Model showing the storm system in multiple frames. 500mb vorticity/height on the left, surface pressure and 1000-500 hpa thickness in the middle, and 3 hour precipitation on the right.

Two rounds of precipitation are expected. The first, late Saturday into Sunday, will be triggered by the cold front passing near the area. The front will slow and stall nearby, so there is the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The sceond round will come with the very strong storm system riding up the front Sunday Night into Monday. This round will feature heavier rain and some potential for strong winds as well. The rain is expected to wrap up on Monday. The potential for some flooding, beach erosion, and very isolated wind damage does exist with this storm. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a 5% risk for severe thunderstorms (not very high--but noteworthy nevertheless) on Saturday afternoon. Stay with us throughout the weekend for the latest on the system.

Article written by JH. Published April 21st, 2012 at 12:55am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Fair weather this week, rain this weekend

2012-04-18T00:50:00.003-04:00

The early-week heat was relatively short lived in nature, as mid level heights in the atmosphere are dropping in response to approaching trough's to our north and west. Although no rain is expected this week, temperatures will drop behind the front which passed the area. Northwest winds and cooler temperatures aloft mean the high temperatures will reach only into the 60's on Wednesday, a 30 degree drop from the 90 degree readings which shocked many in the area on Monday. However, the transient nature of the weather will continue. As soon as the cooldown is here, it will be gone -- as temperatures moderate into the 70's for highs by Friday. All eyes will then turn to a storm system this weekend which could provide the area with some much needed rainfall. Forecast models, however, remain extremely inconsistent with the exact track and strength of the system. At this point -- our forecast confidence is low on how much rain we receive or how intense the storm is. Pictured right: GFS Model showing a storm system impacting the area this weekend.

That being said, confidence is beginning to rise in a bit of a wet weekend beginning on Saturday and continuing through later Sunday. The system could be somewhat slow to move through the area as a front extends towards the area and moisture runs along it. If it does come to fruition, it would certainly be a change after a long stretch of relatively pleasant weekends. We will see! More updates as the week continues. Check out our new high-resolution 5 day forecast graphic below. Click for the full-resolution graphic. Enjoy!

Article written by JH. Published April 18th, 2012 at 12:35am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Highs to approach 90 today, cooldown this week

2012-04-16T12:38:00.001-04:00

Summer-like heat will settle into the area Monday afternoon as a mid-atmospheric ridging pumps some unseasonably warm air into the area. Although April heat (90+ degree temperatures) hasn't been "rare" over the last 10 years or so, it remains a feat which features temperatures well above normal averages. It will certainly feel more like summer than early spring today as high temperatures will soar into the upper 80's to lower 90's in some isolated locations by later afternoon. A sea-breeze should develop near the beaches and on Long Island -- so if you're headed to the beach to enjoy the heat, your party may be crashed a bit by around 3pm. That being said, most of New Jersey and even Metro New York City should see temperatures approaching 90 degrees by around that time. Even after sunset, temperatures will remain in the 80's under the influence of a southwest wind. Nearer to the beaches, again, it will be a bit cooler this evening. A cold front is on the way by Tuesday evening, and should provide a bit of a reprieve by Wednesday. However, we're likely warming back up into the 70's for highs by the end of the week. A stretch of terrific spring weather for sure! Pictured right: NAM model showing highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's Monday afternoon.

Article written by JH. Published April 16th, 2012 at 12:35pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Severe weather outbreak expected across Central US

2012-04-13T14:15:00.003-04:00

With the entrance of Spring, often also comes the beginning of severe weather season across the United States. The Spring months often feature some of the most prolific severe weather events across the Central and Eastern United States. Although they usually don't affect our local area, the impacts are widespread and the damage costly. The first "significant" outbreak of the spring season is expected this coming Saturday. A significant storm system moving through the Central US will be the main player in forcing the development of severe thunderstorms -- within an unstable airmass. The positioning of a warm front and a dryline will become the focal points for the development of supercells with the potential for strong/long-tracked tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare "High Risk" on the Day 2 Outlook for Saturday -- with two separate areas within the High Risk zone (the aforementioned warm front and dry line development areas). Omaha and Lincoln, Nebraska as well as Wichita, Kansas are some major cities within this High Risk area. Pictured right: Storm Prediction Center's Day 2 Convective Outlook showing the High Risk area. The categorical risk areas, pictured on the left side of the image, are triggered using probabilities for severe thunderstorms within a certain distance of any point, pictured right.

For more on the potential severe weather outbreak, we encourage you to visit the Storm Prediction Center's main page. There, you can access the latest outlooks for the remainder of today, Saturday (Day 2), Sunday (Day 3) and beyond (through Day 8). The Storm Prediction Center also issues short-term watches (Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado watches) which are available via their main page. If you're wondering how the SPC works-- visit the SPC FAQ page. If you live in the Moderate or High risk area for Saturday, we suggest you prepare adequately -- do so ahead of time. Check out the National Weather Service's Severe Weather Preparedness page.

Article written by JH. Published April 13th, 2012 at 2:15pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Weekend warmth surge on the way

2012-04-13T00:06:00.002-04:00

An upper level low over the area, which plagued the forecast with showers and cooler weather this week, is on the way out. By Friday afternoon, mid level heights in the atmosphere will begin rising as a ridge builds into the area. Warm air will be pumped towards the region beginning Friday and Saturday -- and will only be amplified on Sunday after the passage of a warm front Sunday Morning. Temperatures will be a bit slower to respond, par for the course in setups like this, but will gradually increase each day. Generally pleasant weather is expected Friday and Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid 60's and lower 70's respectively. The real story comes Sunday morning, as a warm front approaches and passes the region. We could see some showers and thunderstorms early in the morning -- but by afternoon, things should clear out as the front moves north of the area. This will help to advect in some of the warmest air of the season. Highs will reach into the low 80's in isolated spots on Sunday, and likely into the mid 80's on Monday with the potential for some higher readings in isolated locations. The warmth won't last forever -- with a front likely looming Tuesday or Wednesday -- but it will certainly feel more like late Spring or Summer while it's here. Pictured right: NAM model showing high temperatures in the 80's on Sunday afternoon.

Article written by JH. Published April 13th, 2012 at 12:05am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Upper level low headlines mid-week forecast

2012-04-09T18:53:00.002-04:00

The last several months, stretching back to the end of last winter (not this most recent one) have generally featured above normal temperatures. In fact, this has been one of the warmest year or more periods in our area ever. That being said, even in situations like this meteorology can often surprise us with set ups that support isolated showers and slightly cooler temperatures. This week will be a good example of that, as an upper level low will retrograde and then meander over the Northeast United States from essentially Tuesday through the beginning of Friday. The lack of moisture and forcing for precipitation will ultimately save our area from heavy precipitation, and airmass modification over time means no real "cold air" will infiltrate, but we'll definitely be able to notice some cooler conditions this week. By the end of the week and into next weekend, the system will finally begin to move off to our east and northeast, and the weather will begin to change. Most forecast models are indicating the return of warmer weather by that point. Pictured right: NAM model showing the upper air system sitting over our area during the middle of the week (image shows 500mb heights and vorticity).

Article written by JH. Published April 9th, 2012 at 6:45pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Big warm up on the way

2012-03-10T12:45:00.002-05:00

Forecast models are beginning to come into agreement on a period of above to well above normal temperatures throughout the area (throughout the entire Northeast part of the country actually), which will begin this week and continue through the next two weeks. A persistent trough on the west coast of the United States during this time period will allow for periods of ridging over the East Coast, and the advection of unseasonably warm air into the area. Although we wont be dealing with "heat", per se, temperatures could run 20 degrees above normal averages for this time of year. Forecast models are already indicating temperatures in the mid 70's for a few days during the middle part of the new work week. That being said, some caution is necessary...especially near the coast. The ocean is still cool for this time of year..and during these warm air masses, you can often see a developing sea-breeze (or a back-door cold front). The coastal areas could remain in the 50's and 60's, while areas just inland reach into the 70's. We'll have to watch carefully for any such developments -- but for now..it looks like we're about to dive into a period of very spring-like weather beginning on Monday! Pictured right: GFS Model showing temperature departures from normal from now through Day 13 (March 22).

Article written by JH. Published March 10th, 2012 at 12:45pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Wintry impacts to stay away from the city

2012-02-29T13:09:00.003-05:00

A significant storm system will impact the area Wednesday through early Thursday, but the wintry weather will remain away from the city. Warm air in the mid and low levels of the atmosphere is present near the coast, which is allowing the precipitation to change to rain this afternoon. The system is being driven by a process called "warm air advection", where the advection or movement of warm air and strengthening upper level dynamics allows for the development of moderate to heavy precipitation. Farther to our north, plenty of cold air in place will allow for a more prolonged period of snow and sleet. Although the heaviest amounts will be focused over New England, parts of Northwest New Jersey, Southeast New York, and interior Connecticut could see a few inches of snow. In the city and near the coast, a cold rain is expected to fall. The rain could be heavy at times, especially later Wednesday as the best dynamics for precipitation move through. There could also be several periods of light rain, or even no rain at all, beginning later Wednesday afternoon. Finally, after some showers (maybe some snow showers in spots) on Thursday, the system will begin to exit the area. Pictured right: NAM model's storm total snowfall forecast, showing a major snowstorm over New England...and some lighter amounts of Northern NJ/Southeast NY/CT.

* The National Weather Service continues a Winter Weather Advisory for Northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and interior Connecticut until 12:00pm on Thursday. Click here for more details.

Article written by JH. Published February 29th, 2012 at 1:10pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Week ends dreary, big storm this weekend?

2012-02-15T14:13:00.001-05:00

Weak storm systems will pass through the area in an active upper air pattern -- and with a general lack of cold air will provide the area with mostly light showers and drizzle. There is a chance that some of the precipitation falls as snow showers across the northern portions of the forecast area, but no accumulations are expected. Generally, temperatures will still be running slightly above average (what else is new so far this winter) and the lack of any appreciable snow will continue. But towards the end of the week, all eyes will turn to the Central United States...where a significant trough ejecting from the southwest states will attempt to phase with energy from the northern stream of the jet (over Canada). Forecast models remain very inconsistent with the interaction...some of them producing a large snowstorm, and some of them keeping the storm unorganized and well off the coast. Pictured right: GFS model showing a large and strong storm system off the east coast on Sunday.

The main factors behind the eventual formation of the storm are two pieces of energy, from the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. The forecast models, which bring the storm up the coast as a strong nor'easter, phase the two pieces of energy over the Central US..creating a powerful trough over the Eastern US by Saturday and Sunday. The forecast models which keep the system weaker and shunt the low pressure out to sea, have a non-phased solution. In this case, the energy weakens and slides off the coast. We'll have to watch the forecast models very carefully over the next few days to see which solution they are hinting at. Stay tuned!

Article written by JH. Published February 15th, 2012 at 2:10pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Winter weather event ushers in the weekend

2012-02-10T00:14:00.001-05:00

It has been a transitional winter so far -- with temperatures soaring into the 50's only to be followed a few days later by some light snow, and then another warm up. However, the end of this week into this weekend looks to offer something at least slightly different as a somewhat wintry pattern will continue for more than two or three days. Behind an average pattern in place through early Friday, polar air will be lurking to our north. And as energy from the southern stream of the jet ejects northeast and interacts with a piece of the Polar Vortex, a storm forming well offshore could touch off some moderate precipitation over our area. The forecast models have been struggling mightily with the interactions and strength of both the northern and southern stream energy -- and as a result have been inconsistent in their forecasts for our area. However, the bottom line seems to be this on all guidance: the storm system won't rapidly deepen until it is off to our north and east, which means our area should be spared any real heavy precipitation. That being said, the potential for light to moderate precipitation amounts..falling as snow.. does exist. Given these light amounts on forecast guidance, and factoring in some precipitation-type issues early in the system (before a change to snow), our general forecast calls for 1 to 3 inches of snow throughout the area. Pictured right: Our Storm Total Snowfall Forecast map...which shows the forecast snow accumulation through Saturday evening.

EXPECTED TIMELINE OF EVENTS

7:00 - 10:00pm Friday: Skies become overcast, the potential for some showers or flurries across portions of southwest New Jersey.

10:00pm Friday - 1:00am Saturday: Light snow begins across much of the area, moving from southwest to northeast through the area. Precipitation could begin as rain at the coast, and even a rain/snow mix in some locations slightly inland from the coast.

1:00am - 4:00am Saturday: Light to moderate snow continuing throughout the area, with a rain/snow mix likely still continuing near the coast. Accumulations begin to occur on some surfaces.

4:00am - 7:00am Saturday: Light to moderate snow in all areas, probably even down to the coast. Precipitation will show signs of wrapping up in southwest new jersey. Moderate snow over New York and Connecticut.

7:00am - 10:00am Saturday: Precipitation begins ending from southwest to northeast over New Jersey, but continues over Northern parts of the state. The snow continues also over Long Island and Connecticut.

10:00am - 1:00pm Saturday: Precipitation ends over most, if not all, of the forecast area.

WHY LESS SNOW NEAR THE COAST?

A quick note regarding the precipitation type problems -- these are a result of the antecedent airmass which is in place as the storm arrives. It's no secret to anybody living in this area that we have had a lack of real "winter" air (or polar or arctic air, if you want to get technical). The reality of it is, that temperatures could be in the upper 30's to near 40 along the coast as the storm begins. In that case, you need moderate to heavy precipitation to dynamically cool the atmospheric column..or cold air advection (which usually comes after precipitation is over). They will both arrive at some point, during and after the storm respectively, but some precipitation could fall as rain..which ultimately will hold down amounts near the coast line. We included this in our forecast map.

We've got all the down-and-dirty details on the storm system below..including the processes that are driving it to occur in the first place!

WHAT'S CAUSING THE STORM?

The details are still being ironed out by most of the forecast guidance, but the general idea is that a piece of the Polar Vortex will drop southward towards New England. At the same time, a piece of energy to the southwest of our area will move north and east, and eventually phase with the Polar Vortex in the Northwest Atlantic. The graphic to the left shows this development, as we can see the three stages of the phase in the middle of the atmosphere (at 500mb). We put a yellow dot over New York City as a point of reference. In the first image on the far left, the southern stream energy over the Southeast states is moving north and east, which a broad piece of northern stream energy in relation to the Polar Vortex is moving east/southeast. We can see them begin to interact in the second frame (in the middle), and finally the phase occurs on the frame to the far right.

As the phase occurs, a strong surface low will develop over the Northwest Atlantic. At this point, some very heavy precipitation will develop near and to the north and west of the surface low. Fortunately for us, this will be after the system has passed our region. However, the forecast models are still showing a swath of light to moderate precipitation as the system passes by during the beginning stages of the phase. We can see that in the image to the right, from the GFS model's depiction of the system. On the left side we can see the 6 hr precipitation valid Saturday afternoon, showing generally light to moderate precipitation over our area and heavier precipitation offshore. To the right, we can see the GFS forecast surface pressure...which shows the surface low well out over the Atlantic Ocean.

Finally, as the system phases, the Polar Vortex is pulled southward over New England later Saturday into Sunday. This will bring a shot of Polar Air to the entire area -- likely meaning one of the colder nights/days of the winter the second half of this weekend.

Winter-like weather to return again this weekend

2012-02-09T00:54:00.002-05:00

Light snow fell throughout much of the area for the first time in a few weeks, in the midst of a winter that has offered less than 10 inches of snow so far throughout the majority of the forecast area. It has been a transitional winter for sure -- with temperatures soaring into the 50's only to be followed a few days later by some light snow, and then another warm up. However, the end of this week into this weekend looks to offer something at least slightly different as a somewhat wintry pattern will continue for more than two or three days. Behind the light-snow producing storm system on Wednesday, an average airmass will build into the forecast area for Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40's. However, Polar air will be lurking to our north on Friday...and as energy from the southern stream of the jet phases with a piece of the Polar Vortex, a storm forming well offshore could touch off some moderate precipitation over our area. The main storm won't form until it's well north of our area -- but there still could be a light snow throughout much of the area as it swings by. Pictured right: NAM model showing light snow impacting our area Saturday afternoon.

WHAT'S CAUSING THE WEEKEND THREAT?

The details are still being ironed out by most of the forecast guidance, but the general idea is that a piece of the Polar Vortex will drop southward towards New England. At the same time, a piece of energy to the southwest of our area will move north and east, and eventually phase with the Polar Vortex in the Northwest Atlantic. The graphic to the left shows this development, as we can see the three stages of the phase in the middle of the atmosphere (at 500mb). We put a yellow dot over New York City as a point of reference. In the first image on the far left, the southern stream energy over the Southeast states is moving north and east, which a broad piece of northern stream energy in relation to the Polar Vortex is moving east/southeast. We can see them begin to interact in the second frame (in the middle), and finally the phase occurs on the frame to the far right.

As the phase occurs, a strong surface low will develop over the Northwest Atlantic. At this point, some very heavy precipitation will develop near and to the north and west of the surface low. Fortunately for us, this will be after the system has passed our region. However, the forecast models are still showing a swath of light to moderate precipitation as the system passes by during the beginning stages of the phase. We can see that in the image to the right, from the GFS model's depiction of the system. On the left side we can see the 6 hr precipitation valid Saturday afternoon, showing generally light to moderate precipitation over our area and heavier precipitation offshore. To the right, we can see the GFS forecast surface pressure...which shows the surface low well out over the Atlantic Ocean.

Essentially, the potential does exist for some light to moderate snow over our area Friday Night into Saturday as the storm organizes. That being said, the potential for a moderate impact event is very low...as the storm system is forecast by all guidance to develop very far away from our area. Still, we could see some light accumulations throughout most of the area if the forecast models are correct. Uncertainty is still very high -- so stay tuned! There is still the potential for things to change dramatically

Finally, as the system phases, the Polar Vortex is pulled southward over New England later Saturday into Sunday. This will bring a shot of Polar Air to the entire area -- likely meaning one of the colder nights/days of the winter the second half of this weekend.

Light snow may brush the area Wednesday Night

2012-02-07T13:05:00.002-05:00

This winter, any frozen precipitation has been a big story. The same can be said for the upcoming light snow potential on Wednesday Night. An event which in other winters would be considered a nuisance, snow could begin later Wednesday afternoon across Southwest New Jersey. It will spread north and east with time, and may even be mixed with rain near the immediate coast. However, the potential for up to an inch of snow does exist across some isolated locations in Southern or Central New Jersey if all goes well. Forecast models are currently hinting at the snow persisting for a few hours at most, as the precipitation transfers to a surface low which will be forming well off shore. In fact, this transfer is one of the reasons why the snow will have trouble making it to the NYC Metro area. Instead, the forecast there will call for a potentially brief period of flurries or light snow. Pictured right: Our storm total snowfall forecast valid through Thursday morning. Up to an inch of snow across parts of interior Central and Southern New Jersey, with just some snow in the air elsewhere..including the shore.

After this system, more fair weather is expected for the latter half of the week. The weekend could offer a slight chance of a coastal storm system as a mid level disturbance moves northeast from the Southwest United States and attempts to interact with the Polar Vortex to our north. However, most forecast models show this storm system well out to sea...so confidence in anything noteworthy is currently extremely low. We'll keep an eye on it.

Article written by JH. Published February 7th, 2012 at 1:00pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Another relatively quiet week on the way

2012-02-06T14:24:00.003-05:00

This winter can, so far, certainly be remembered for its lack of heavy precipitation events and general potential for winter precipitation. This trend will continue this week, as the atmosphere continues to offer quiet and generally transitional weather. Temperatures will warm slightly today into the 50's, before a weak frontal boundary passes on Tuesday. This will usher in some cooler air, but temperatures should still reach slightly above average during the day. By Wednesday, our weather "highlight" of the week will arrive as a weak mid level disturbance moves northeast along this frontal boundary from the Mississippi Valley through the Northeast US. This should be enough to touch off some light precipitation (likely in the form of snow for most areas) which could impact our area Wednesday Night. The precipitation is expected to be light and generally a nuisance -- although we can't rule out a dusting or a trace of snow on the colder surfaces. More fair weather is expected for the latter half of the week. The weekend could offer a slight chance of a coastal storm system as a mid level disturbance moves northeast from the Southwest United States and attempts to interact with the Polar Vortex to our north. However, most forecast models show this storm system well out to sea...so confidence in anything noteworthy is currently extremely low. We'll keep an eye on it. Otherwise, enjoy another relatively quiet weather week! Pictured right: NAM model showing some very light snow moving through the area late Wednesday.

Article written by JH. Published February 6th, 2012 at 2:20pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Week begins with a warmup

2012-01-30T00:51:00.001-05:00

The atmosphere has been in a bit of a swing over the last few weeks, often flipping from cold to warm within a span of 5 days. In fact, several weeks in the last few months have featured dramatic temperature swings in either direction. This week will be no different, as we will start the week with temperatures slightly below normal, but warm up to above normal by Wednesday afternoon. The culprit is a mid-level ridge in the atmosphere, building ahead of a disturbance in the Central US. The warmth on Wednesday could be pronounced in spots, with temperatures again reaching into the middle to upper 50's. It will be short lived once again, though, as a surface cold front swings through shortly thereafter. By Thursday and Friday temperatures should be below normal once again -- with a chance of rain and snow showers as well. In summary -- we'll have a little bit of everything on the table this week. Certainly won't feel like much of a change -- this has been the tale of the winter so far! Featured right: NAM model showing temperatures near 60 degrees Wednesday afternoon ahead of a front.

A final note -- we're nearly finished with our storm summary for the January 21st, 2012 snowfall event which impacted our area just over a week ago. We'll be posting the details..including a map and storm total snowfall reports in the coming days. We wanted to thank everybody who submitted a report or observation to us during the storm. Although the contoured snowfall maps aren't released yet, you can still check out the Winter Storm Archive 2011-2012 which is available to the public. We've updated the archive with all the articles and forecasts we published from the event -- and the two other events this winter. Enjoy!

Article written by JH. Published January 30th, 2012 at 12:59am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Rainy finish to the week

2012-01-25T23:03:00.000-05:00

A relatively quiet week will end with more active weather, as a storm system approaches our area from the west. The storm system is forecast to track so far west, in fact, that temperatures on Friday could reach well into the 50's (to near 60) near and behind an area of moderate to heavy rain. This rain will begin early Thursday as showers, but a period of more steady rain is expected near a frontal boundary later Thursday afternoon and evening. The showery conditions are expected to continue through Thursday Night and Friday morning. With the system tracking so far to our north and west, our area will be in the "warm sector" (area ahead of the cold front with southerly winds) and temperatures will warm into the 50's before its arrival. The frontal boundary will likely bring another period of moderate to heavy rain as well as some gusty winds. Total precipitation values are expected to be between 0.5 and 0.75 inches, although some isolated areas could pick up closer to an inch of precipitation. Behind the front, cooler weather will return once again as we head into the weekend. Pictured right: GFS model showing the storm system (pictured as surface pressure) impacting the eastern US on Thursday afternoon.

Finally, if you haven't checked it out already, we published a new Technical Forecast Discussion earlier today. Our technical discussions are a much deeper meteorological read than our usual posts (hence the name "technical") and are more targeted towards meteorology enthusiasts or professionals/forecasters in the community. In the article, we talk about the current pattern...where have have been so far this winter...and where we are likely going from here. Check it out, and let us know what you think!

Article written by JH. Published January 25th, 2012 at 11:00pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Clearing out for Sunday, but active pattern continues

2012-01-21T20:30:00.003-05:00

The first moderate (major in some areas) snowstorm of the winter blanketed the area with snowfall Friday Night through Saturday morning, leaving much of the area looking like it should in winter...for the first time this season. Temperatures will drop again tonight as skies clear and the snow cover helps keep things colder than usual. The clear skies will remain in place through early Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. However, the fair weather will be relatively brief as a very active weather pattern continues across the Eastern United States. A strong storm system will drive towards the Central United States Sunday through Monday, so far west in fact that our area will warm up considerably by the time it gets here. Clouds will be on the increase by Sunday afternoon with scattered precipitation breaking out by evening. Forecast models are indicating the potential for precipitation to begin as a period of freezing rain or freezing drizzle across the interior. No major accumulations are expected, but the roads could be quite icy and slick for a while. Afterwards, though, the warm air will win out. Temperatures will warm up considerably through Monday before a cold front passes Monday afternoon with the potential for rain and wind. Behind this system, temperatures drop to near normal yet again...but the snow pack probably won't make it out alive. Pictured right: NAM model showing a major storm system over the Central US, and a cold front with associated moderate to heavy rain affecting our area Monday afternoon.

WE NEED YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS!

If you haven't submitted them yet, reply to this post or get in contact with us via Facebook or Twitter. We'll be using as many snowfall reports as we can to organize a contoured map of snowfall, and to publish our forecast verification. We hope to have this completed within a few days.

Finally, a big thank you to everybody who viewed a forecast, stayed in contact with us, shared a forecast, or interacted with us. We love staying in touch with you all and giving you a personal weather forecast experience. Have a great weekend!

Winter storm to impact the area tonight into Saturday

2012-01-20T18:25:00.002-05:00

If you don't count the out-of-season snowstorm this past October, it's been nearly a year since New York City and surrounding area(s) were impacted by a moderate snowstorm. Things will change beginning tonight and continuing through Saturday. A winter storm is on it's way, and it will deliver a moderate snowfall for most of the area, including much of New Jersey, New York City, Southeast New York, Connecticut, and Long Island. Almost all areas should see at least some snow from this system, with a majority of the area likely seeing 2 to 5 inches of snow. That being said, forecast models still indicate a bit of a "battle ground" of sorts over New Jersey as warmer air works in over the mid levels of the atmosphere. This will bring sleet and potentially freezing rain into the forecast over Central New Jersey and portions of the New Jersey shore by later Wednesday morning..as well as possibly working towards Southern Long Island. Where this specific boundary sets up will determine where the heavier snow falls, and which areas have their snowfall totals hampered by mixed precipitation. Our latest snowfall forecast map is posted to the right -- but we've got the down and dirty details on the storm below.

Watches and Warnings: The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories for the entire forecast area for the potential of 3 to 6 inches of snow, with 4 to 8 inches in some areas. Click the above link for text and details.

EXPECTED TIMELINE OF EVENTS...

Rest of tonight: By evening, clouds begin to increase...lower...and thicken. It will start "feeling like snow" as some would say. Radar images could start to indicate snow by 10pm, but most of that will be "virga" (or radar indicated precipitation that doesn't reach the ground) due to the dry air at the low levels of the atmosphere.

11:00pm Friday - 2:00am Saturday: Overcast skies, with the potential for flurries in the air. After midnight, light snow begins from west to east. Areas of moderate snow will begin to move eastward from Pennsylvania and begin affecting Western New Jersey.

2:00am Saturday - 6:00am Saturday: Moderate snow throughout the entire forecast area. Localized areas of borderline heavy snow are possible in some locations. Snow should begin to accumulate, but will take longer to do so in the city and near the immediate shore due to southeast winds off the water.

6:00am Saturday - 11:00am Saturday: Moderate snow continues throughout most of the area. Over Central New Jersey, the New Jersey shore, and the South Shore of Long Island...snow may begin to mix with sleet or freezing rain. Elsewhere, moderate snow will begin to show signs of tapering off from west to east...especially over Western New Jersey.

11:00am Saturday - 3:00pm Saturday: Snow ends from west to east, possibly ending as sleet or graupel as far north as New York City. The snow will be slowest to end over Connecticut and Long Island, and could continue into the afternoon there. Skies will gradually clear by around 8pm.

STORM OVERVIEW, ORIGIN, AND CONCERNS...

This storm system is unique in it's origin and track/strength. It certainly does not fit the mold of the storms we have been experiencing over the past several years. Instead, it's moving towards our area from the southwest. The storm is actually relatively weak, but the gradient in the pattern (between warm and cold) will create enough lift for precipitation. The surface low pressure is expected to track from the Plains, through the Central US, and then towards the Ohio Valley. Here, the storm will meet resistance from a disturbance to the north (and at the surface, a building high pressure). This will force the storm to slide east/northeast and re-develop off the coast (if it didn't, we'd be looking at a rain storm). The nature of the event also ensures it will be relatively quick, and that high snowfall amounts are out of reach. Still, the potential for 6 inches in some locations is remarkable for this winter so far. Pictured left: NAM model showing the storm system at the surface (left) and the precipitation (right). Notice the weak and strung-out nature of the surface low.

In terms of what could go wrong, our focus is on the potential for mid level atmospheric warming. This event is originating from our southwest, and southwest winds in the atmosphere are helping to bring the system towards us. However, these southwest winds are advecting warm air towards the area as well. So, we are all watching carefully for the potential for this warm air to make it slightly farther north than forecasted by most guidance. If it did, the cold upper levels and warm mid levels would mean snowflakes could form, but would melt to liquid in the warm layer as they fell. Finally, at the cold surface (where we are)...they could re-freeze into sleet or freezing rain. This "warm tongue" as we call it in meteorology is currently not forecast to make it farther north than Central New Jersey. But forecast models aren't perfect--and can sometimes be off with their forecast of these features. We will be watching very carefully. Pictured right: Our snowfall probabilities table, including percentage chances for 1, 4, 6, and 8 inches of snow at several locations.

Light to moderate winter storm on the way

2012-01-20T00:55:00.001-05:00

Tonight's clipper event may not have provided the snow that some have been waiting for, but we can assure you that you won't be waiting much longer. An approaching storm system will bring moderate precipitation beginning in the Early AM on Saturday, and continuing through Saturday afternoon and evening. Forecast models have been highly inconsistent with this storm system, but the latest trends on forecast guidance have brought a colder and snowier consensus just 24 hours or so prior to the event. Confidence is increasing in the potential for a moderate snowfall for most of the area, including much of New Jersey, New York City, Southeast New York, Connecticut, and Long Island. That being said, forecast models still indicate a bit of a "battle ground" of sorts over New Jersey as warmer air works in over the mid levels of the atmosphere. This will bring sleet and potentially freezing rain into the forecast over Central New Jersey and portions of the New Jersey shore by later Wednesday morning. Where this specific boundary sets up will determine where the heavier snow falls, and which areas have their snowfall totals hampered by mixed precipitation. Our latest snowfall forecast map is posted to the right -- but we've got the down and dirty details on the storm below.

Updated 2:00pm January 20th, 2012: We've updated the image to the top right with our latest snowfall forecast. You can also check our probabilities table here. The older forecasts will become available for archived viewing after the storm.

EXPECTED TIMELINE OF EVENTS...

During the day on Friday: Clouds begin to increase gradually throughout the day. No precipitation expected -- we may see the vast majority of the day feature sun. By evening, clouds begin to increase...lower...and thicken. It should start feeling like snow by evening.

11:00pm Friday - 3:00am Saturday: Overcast skies, with the potential for flurries in the air. After midnight, light snow begins from west to east. Areas of moderate snow will begin to move eastward from Pennsylvania and begin affecting Western New Jersey.

3:00am Saturday - 7:00am Saturday: Moderate snow throughout the entire forecast area. Localized areas of borderline heavy snow are possible in some locations. Snow should begin to accumulate, but will take longer to do so in the city and near the immediate shore due to southeast winds off the water.

7:00am Saturday - 11:00am Saturday: Moderate snow continues throughout most of the area. Over Central New Jersey, the New Jersey shore, and the South Shore of Long Island...snow may begin to mix with sleet or freezing rain. Elsewhere, moderate snow will begin to show signs of tapering off from west to east...especially over Western New Jersey.

11:00am Saturday - 3:00pm Saturday: Snow ends from west to east, possibly ending as sleet or graupel as far north as New York City. The snow will be slowest to end over Connecticut and Long Island, and could continue into the afternoon there. Skies will gradually clear by around 8pm.

STORM OVERVIEW, ORIGIN, AND CONCERNS...

This storm system is unique in it's origin and track/strength. It certainly does not fit the mold of the storms we have been experiencing over the past several years. Instead, it's moving towards our area from the southwest. The storm is actually relatively weak, but the gradient in the pattern (between warm and cold) will create enough lift for precipitation. The surface low pressure is expected to track from the Plains, through the Central US, and then towards the Ohio Valley. Here, the storm will meet resistence from a disturbance to the north (and at the surface, a building high pressure). This will force the storm to slide east/northeast and re-develop off the coast (if it didn't, we'd be looking at a rain storm). The nature of the event also ensures it will be relatively quick, and that high snowfall amounts are out of reach. Still, the potential for 6 inches in some locations is remarkable for this winter so far. Pictured left: NAM model showing the storm system at the surface (left) and the precipitation (right). Notice the weak and strung-out nature of the surface low.

In terms of what could go wrong, our focus is on the potential for mid level atmospheric warming. This event is originating from our southwest, and southwest winds in the atmosphere are helping to bring the system towards us. However, these southwest winds are advecting warm air towards the area as well. So, we are all watching carefully for the potential for this warm air to make it slightly farther north than forecasted by most guidance. If it did, the cold upper levels and warm mid levels would mean snowflakes could form, but would melt to liquid in the warm layer as they fell. Finally, at the cold surface (where we are)...they could re-freeze into sleet or freezing rain. This "warm tongue" as we call it in meteorology is currently not forecast to make it farther north than Central New Jersey. But forecast models aren't perfect--and can sometimes be off with their forecast of these features. We will be watching very carefully.

OVERVIEW VIDEO...

Earlier this evening, we released another storm overview video. Here, you'll find even more details..thoroughly explained...with plenty of images and maps. If you feel like really getting a grasp on what's going on Friday Night into Satuday..we suggest checking it out. We hope you enjoy it!

Winter may finally make an appearance this weekend

2012-01-18T01:58:00.003-05:00

Update: The forecast hasn't changed too much over the past 24 hours since we wrote this detailed blog post on the potential winter weather this area, but there definitely have been some adjustments. The clipper system affecting our area Thursday Night into Friday looks like more of a nuisance than anything, with the potential for a coating to less than an inch of snow over the interior..with some snow showers and squalls around the area. The second storm system continues to remain uncertain, with forecast models split between warmer and colder solutions. The warmer solutions would provide the area with a period of snow/sleet followed by a changeover to rain...and no accumulation near the coast or in the city. The colder solutions would mean a more prolonged period of snow...even near the coast. Although accumulations in the city and coast seem unlikely, the colder solutions would definitely make things interesting..and would certainly provide a moderate snowfall over the interior. Our latest forecast discussion video below details all of the possibilities with this storm system, including the processes behind it. Check it out! We'll have constant updates with new information as soon as we get it over the next few days.

Previous Post (from January 18th, 2012) ...

It certainly has been a good amount of time since we've had to talk about snow in the forecast. And while these upcoming two events aren't going to bring back memories of snowy winters past, they will definitely bring the potential for light accumulating snows...which is something we haven't been able to say much so far this winter season. The first of the events won't near our area until Thursday Night, so we have a few days of fair weather to iron out the forecast. Wednesday and Thursday look fair and somewhat chilly, as new cold air builds into the area. The system approaching later Thursday Night is associated with a low pressure area well to our north, and the moisture associated with the system will barely "clip" our area. However, the potential does exist for an inch or two of snow...most likely away from the shore and city...in the early AM hours of Friday. The snow probably won't be falling hard enough (with surface temperatures near or above freezing) to stick in the city itself and near the immediate shore areas.

The second event, likely to impact our area Saturday into Sunday, features the potential for more steady precipitation...but also comes with a ton of uncertainty. Forecast models are waffling between colder and warmer solutions. The colder solutions could provide an "advisory level" snowfall (3-5") for most of the area, while the warmer solutions would likely bring only a light amount of snow...followed by a changeover to rain. Given the atmospheric pattern settled in place (one generally unfavorable for snowfall), we're edging slightly towards the warmer solutions. However, this event still has the potential to produce a few inches of snow..event in the city...so stay tuned for sure. There is an increasing likelihood of a few inches of snow over interior locations, with the potential for moderate snowfall amounts (more than 3 inches). We'll be watching carefully, and keeping you all informed over the next few days.

Article written by JH. Published January 19th, 2012 at 12:40am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Period of wintry weather possible tonight in the suburbs

2012-01-16T16:03:00.002-05:00

An approaching storm system will bring warmer air with it tonight into Tuesday, but the cold air which has settled in over our area will be stubborn initially. The situation becomes somewhat complicated tonight, as warm air surges into the area in the middle levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, however, cold air will hold on a bit longer than usual, creating an unbalanced "sounding" of the atmospheric profile. Essentially, the warm air aloft will cause the snow flakes to melt, but the cold air at the surface could cause sleet, or the rain that falls to freeze. In some interior locations, there could be a period of snow as well before the mid levels of the atmosphere warm up. This will create a few hours of wintry conditions, mainly over the interior. And although we may see a few flakes or sleet in the city...it will be short lived and a quick change to rain is expected thereafter. The change to rain will work through the entire area by Tuesday, as the cold air settled in at the surface loses the battle with the push of much warmer air associated with the storm system. By mid-afternoon, in fact, the city could reach the middle to upper 40's. Pictured right: Forecast assessment for the system tonight into early Tuesday. A period of wintry weather is expected over the interior, and although snow/sleet accumulations are forecast to be less than an inch, freezing rain or sleet could cause some slick roads and travel difficulties.

The process which causes the potential for sleet and freezing rain (or as we refer to it, a "wintry mix") is pretty complicated, and sometimes difficult to understand. But to make things more simple, it involves warming of the atmosphere above our heads...and stubborn cold air right near our heads at the surface. Warm air advection (or a push of warm air towards our area) occurs in the mid levels of the atmosphere, while the cold air at the surface remains. The image to the left is a forecast sounding, or a vertical profile of the atmosphere. The forecast is valid at Morristown Airport, New Jersey...at 15 hours from the 1800 UTC run of the NAM model, or valid for the early AM hours on Tuesday. The red line shows the temperature throughout the atmosphere, and the pink line represents 0 degree celsius, or freezing. You can see the warm air push in the mid levels (the red arrow points this out), and the cold air remaining in the very low levels (the blue arrow points this out). The area which we live in is the very lowest point of the sounding. If you could imagine a snowflake forming around the middle of the sounding and falling, the flake would melt where the temperature rises to greater than 0 degrees celsius, and then re-freeze into either sleet or freezing rain at the surface. Some stray snowflakes could make it down as well.

With time, these soundings warm up by Tuesday morning and afternoon...and precipitation will change to all rain throughout the entire forecast area. Still, the period of wintry weather over the interior, however brief it may be, could cause some slick roads and travel difficulties as well as some very light accumulations. The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories for much of the interior. Check it out, and stay here for more information throughout the night and into Tuesday.

Article written by JH. Published January 16th, 2012 at 4:00pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Moving forward, pattern looks to offer more of the same

2012-01-15T03:27:00.000-05:00

Roughly halfway through meteorological winter, New York City still sits with a Trace of snow. Much of the same can be said for many major reporting stations throughout the area. Now, to be fair, this doesn't include the October snowfall...which until this point has been the only "noteable" snowfall since last winter. The pattern has been dominated by, for the most part, unfavorable meteorological teleconnections for snow. That is, the pattern...taking into account many meteorological indices and normals...just won't cooperate right now if you're looking for sustained winter weather. We'll take a look at where we have been, where we're at now, and where we are headed..below. A word of warning: If you're here looking only for news of a wintry pattern, we don't have much good news. So you may want to save yourself the time. We hope you all enjoy the video -- and feel free to comment and chat with us on the upcoming pattern.

Article written by JH. Published January 15th, 2012 at 2:55am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Arctic front brings strong winds on Friday

2012-01-13T01:55:00.002-05:00

Although this winter has not offered much snow or cold air thus far, it has been fairly active with storm systems moving through the area every couple of days. The end of this week will be no different, as an arctic cold front will sweep through the area Friday afternoon. With it, will come a drop in temperatures and more notably a dramatic increase in winds. The pressure gradient between a departing storm system and a new high pressure, coupled with the strength of the cold front itself, will set the stage for an afternoon characterized by very strong wind gusts out of the west-northwest. In fact, the winds could reach over 40 to 50 miles per hour at times. In addition, showers will be around in the morning near the frontal boundary. Generally, not a pleasant day at all to close out the week. Highs will be in the low to mid 40's, but will fall throughout the day. With winds gusting near 50 miles per hour at times, it will feel raw and generally nasty outside at times even with some sunshine. By evening, temperatures will fall into the 20's throughout the entire area. Pictured right: NAM model showing sustained winds over 20 knots throughout the area on Friday.

The weekend, although sunny, also looks cold...and windy to start. The breezy conditions will continue through Friday Night and into the first half of Saturday. Highs will struggle to reach above freezing, and Saturday Night, low temperatures will fall into the single digits and teens throughout the forecast area. Sunday's highs will be in the mid to upper 20's throughout most of the area. So although precipitation isn't an issue this weekend (other than maybe a stray snow shower on Saturday or Sunday), the cold arctic air will certainly be a shock to the system.

THE FORECAST AT A GLANCE... (or see the overview)

Today (Friday): Mostly cloudy early, with a chance of showers. Then becoming partly cloudy. Very windy, with west-northwest winds between 20 and 30 miles per hour, gusting to near 50 miles per hour at times. High near 44, dropping throughout the day. Chance of precipitation is 40% early.

Tonight: Mostly clear and windy, with a low around 27. West wind 15 to 25 miles per hour, with gusts near 40 to 45 miles per hour at times.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy, with a high near 33. West winds 15 to 20 miles per hour, gusting near 30 miles per hour at times.

Saturday Night: Clear and cold, with an overnight low near 14. Northwest winds 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 32. Cold.

Article written by JH. Published January 13th, 2012 at 1:52am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Active start to the new week

2012-01-09T02:15:00.000-05:00

If you were hoping for a calm weather pattern this week, we can't offer much good news for you. Granted, this pattern won't provide us with tons of precipitation and terrible weather, but there will certainly be a lot going on around us as an active weather pattern settles in. High pressure over the area will control the weather on Monday as a storm system approaches from the west. This will be a relatively weak disturbance, which will pass to our south Monday Night. There is the chance for some light snow showers with this system (or possibly even rain showers near the immediate coast), but most forecast models have backed off on any potential precipitation. Still, we can't rule out a period of light rain or snow Monday Night into Tuesday morning. This system moves out of the picture, but clouds will be increasing again by Wednesday as a stronger storm approaches from the southwest. This system will get scooped up by an approaching disturbance, phase with it, and force the development of a new storm off the coast. Pictured right: GFS model showing precipitation to the south of the area Monday Night into Tuesday morning.

Cold air will not be in place prior to the storm, so seeing snow is highly unlikely throughout most of the area, but there is the potential for some snow to begin the storm system across the far interior and northern locations...specifically the NW Hills of New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Litchfield Connecticut. For the rest of the area, a period of moderate to heavy cold rain on Thursday morning. We will certainly keep you updated on both of these systems during the week -- and we'll get a better idea on the exact effects of the stronger mid-week system as we move forward. Stick with us!

THE FORECAST AT A GLANCE... (or see the overview)

Today (Monday): Partly sunny, with a high near 43. A light breeze, becoming a south wind at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Feeling pretty chilly compared to the weekend weather.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of light snow or flurries (flurries or drizzle near the coast). Low near 35, with a southwest wind around 5 miles per hour. No accumulations expected, but even a flake of snow is exciting considering the trends so far this winter.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high around 45. West wind between 8 and 14 miles per hour. A bit breezy, still chilly, no precipitation to speak of. Not a bad day.

Article written by JH. Published January 9th, 2012 at 2:10am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.