New York Metro Weather

Wintry impacts to stay away from the city

2012-02-29T13:09:00.003-05:00

A significant storm system will impact the area Wednesday through early Thursday, but the wintry weather will remain away from the city. Warm air in the mid and low levels of the atmosphere is present near the coast, which is allowing the precipitation to change to rain this afternoon. The system is being driven by a process called "warm air advection", where the advection or movement of warm air and strengthening upper level dynamics allows for the development of moderate to heavy precipitation. Farther to our north, plenty of cold air in place will allow for a more prolonged period of snow and sleet. Although the heaviest amounts will be focused over New England, parts of Northwest New Jersey, Southeast New York, and interior Connecticut could see a few inches of snow. In the city and near the coast, a cold rain is expected to fall. The rain could be heavy at times, especially later Wednesday as the best dynamics for precipitation move through. There could also be several periods of light rain, or even no rain at all, beginning later Wednesday afternoon. Finally, after some showers (maybe some snow showers in spots) on Thursday, the system will begin to exit the area. Pictured right: NAM model's storm total snowfall forecast, showing a major snowstorm over New England...and some lighter amounts of Northern NJ/Southeast NY/CT.

* The National Weather Service continues a Winter Weather Advisory for Northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and interior Connecticut until 12:00pm on Thursday. Click here for more details.

Article written by JH. Published February 29th, 2012 at 1:10pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Week ends dreary, big storm this weekend?

2012-02-15T14:13:00.001-05:00

Weak storm systems will pass through the area in an active upper air pattern -- and with a general lack of cold air will provide the area with mostly light showers and drizzle. There is a chance that some of the precipitation falls as snow showers across the northern portions of the forecast area, but no accumulations are expected. Generally, temperatures will still be running slightly above average (what else is new so far this winter) and the lack of any appreciable snow will continue. But towards the end of the week, all eyes will turn to the Central United States...where a significant trough ejecting from the southwest states will attempt to phase with energy from the northern stream of the jet (over Canada). Forecast models remain very inconsistent with the interaction...some of them producing a large snowstorm, and some of them keeping the storm unorganized and well off the coast. Pictured right: GFS model showing a large and strong storm system off the east coast on Sunday.

The main factors behind the eventual formation of the storm are two pieces of energy, from the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. The forecast models, which bring the storm up the coast as a strong nor'easter, phase the two pieces of energy over the Central US..creating a powerful trough over the Eastern US by Saturday and Sunday. The forecast models which keep the system weaker and shunt the low pressure out to sea, have a non-phased solution. In this case, the energy weakens and slides off the coast. We'll have to watch the forecast models very carefully over the next few days to see which solution they are hinting at. Stay tuned!

Article written by JH. Published February 15th, 2012 at 2:10pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Winter weather event ushers in the weekend

2012-02-10T00:14:00.001-05:00

It has been a transitional winter so far -- with temperatures soaring into the 50's only to be followed a few days later by some light snow, and then another warm up. However, the end of this week into this weekend looks to offer something at least slightly different as a somewhat wintry pattern will continue for more than two or three days. Behind an average pattern in place through early Friday, polar air will be lurking to our north. And as energy from the southern stream of the jet ejects northeast and interacts with a piece of the Polar Vortex, a storm forming well offshore could touch off some moderate precipitation over our area. The forecast models have been struggling mightily with the interactions and strength of both the northern and southern stream energy -- and as a result have been inconsistent in their forecasts for our area. However, the bottom line seems to be this on all guidance: the storm system won't rapidly deepen until it is off to our north and east, which means our area should be spared any real heavy precipitation. That being said, the potential for light to moderate precipitation amounts..falling as snow.. does exist. Given these light amounts on forecast guidance, and factoring in some precipitation-type issues early in the system (before a change to snow), our general forecast calls for 1 to 3 inches of snow throughout the area. Pictured right: Our Storm Total Snowfall Forecast map...which shows the forecast snow accumulation through Saturday evening.

EXPECTED TIMELINE OF EVENTS

7:00 - 10:00pm Friday: Skies become overcast, the potential for some showers or flurries across portions of southwest New Jersey.

10:00pm Friday - 1:00am Saturday: Light snow begins across much of the area, moving from southwest to northeast through the area. Precipitation could begin as rain at the coast, and even a rain/snow mix in some locations slightly inland from the coast.

1:00am - 4:00am Saturday: Light to moderate snow continuing throughout the area, with a rain/snow mix likely still continuing near the coast. Accumulations begin to occur on some surfaces.

4:00am - 7:00am Saturday: Light to moderate snow in all areas, probably even down to the coast. Precipitation will show signs of wrapping up in southwest new jersey. Moderate snow over New York and Connecticut.

7:00am - 10:00am Saturday: Precipitation begins ending from southwest to northeast over New Jersey, but continues over Northern parts of the state. The snow continues also over Long Island and Connecticut.

10:00am - 1:00pm Saturday: Precipitation ends over most, if not all, of the forecast area.

WHY LESS SNOW NEAR THE COAST?

A quick note regarding the precipitation type problems -- these are a result of the antecedent airmass which is in place as the storm arrives. It's no secret to anybody living in this area that we have had a lack of real "winter" air (or polar or arctic air, if you want to get technical). The reality of it is, that temperatures could be in the upper 30's to near 40 along the coast as the storm begins. In that case, you need moderate to heavy precipitation to dynamically cool the atmospheric column..or cold air advection (which usually comes after precipitation is over). They will both arrive at some point, during and after the storm respectively, but some precipitation could fall as rain..which ultimately will hold down amounts near the coast line. We included this in our forecast map.

We've got all the down-and-dirty details on the storm system below..including the processes that are driving it to occur in the first place!

WHAT'S CAUSING THE STORM?

The details are still being ironed out by most of the forecast guidance, but the general idea is that a piece of the Polar Vortex will drop southward towards New England. At the same time, a piece of energy to the southwest of our area will move north and east, and eventually phase with the Polar Vortex in the Northwest Atlantic. The graphic to the left shows this development, as we can see the three stages of the phase in the middle of the atmosphere (at 500mb). We put a yellow dot over New York City as a point of reference. In the first image on the far left, the southern stream energy over the Southeast states is moving north and east, which a broad piece of northern stream energy in relation to the Polar Vortex is moving east/southeast. We can see them begin to interact in the second frame (in the middle), and finally the phase occurs on the frame to the far right.

As the phase occurs, a strong surface low will develop over the Northwest Atlantic. At this point, some very heavy precipitation will develop near and to the north and west of the surface low. Fortunately for us, this will be after the system has passed our region. However, the forecast models are still showing a swath of light to moderate precipitation as the system passes by during the beginning stages of the phase. We can see that in the image to the right, from the GFS model's depiction of the system. On the left side we can see the 6 hr precipitation valid Saturday afternoon, showing generally light to moderate precipitation over our area and heavier precipitation offshore. To the right, we can see the GFS forecast surface pressure...which shows the surface low well out over the Atlantic Ocean.

Finally, as the system phases, the Polar Vortex is pulled southward over New England later Saturday into Sunday. This will bring a shot of Polar Air to the entire area -- likely meaning one of the colder nights/days of the winter the second half of this weekend.

Winter-like weather to return again this weekend

2012-02-09T00:54:00.002-05:00

Light snow fell throughout much of the area for the first time in a few weeks, in the midst of a winter that has offered less than 10 inches of snow so far throughout the majority of the forecast area. It has been a transitional winter for sure -- with temperatures soaring into the 50's only to be followed a few days later by some light snow, and then another warm up. However, the end of this week into this weekend looks to offer something at least slightly different as a somewhat wintry pattern will continue for more than two or three days. Behind the light-snow producing storm system on Wednesday, an average airmass will build into the forecast area for Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40's. However, Polar air will be lurking to our north on Friday...and as energy from the southern stream of the jet phases with a piece of the Polar Vortex, a storm forming well offshore could touch off some moderate precipitation over our area. The main storm won't form until it's well north of our area -- but there still could be a light snow throughout much of the area as it swings by. Pictured right: NAM model showing light snow impacting our area Saturday afternoon.

WHAT'S CAUSING THE WEEKEND THREAT?

The details are still being ironed out by most of the forecast guidance, but the general idea is that a piece of the Polar Vortex will drop southward towards New England. At the same time, a piece of energy to the southwest of our area will move north and east, and eventually phase with the Polar Vortex in the Northwest Atlantic. The graphic to the left shows this development, as we can see the three stages of the phase in the middle of the atmosphere (at 500mb). We put a yellow dot over New York City as a point of reference. In the first image on the far left, the southern stream energy over the Southeast states is moving north and east, which a broad piece of northern stream energy in relation to the Polar Vortex is moving east/southeast. We can see them begin to interact in the second frame (in the middle), and finally the phase occurs on the frame to the far right.

As the phase occurs, a strong surface low will develop over the Northwest Atlantic. At this point, some very heavy precipitation will develop near and to the north and west of the surface low. Fortunately for us, this will be after the system has passed our region. However, the forecast models are still showing a swath of light to moderate precipitation as the system passes by during the beginning stages of the phase. We can see that in the image to the right, from the GFS model's depiction of the system. On the left side we can see the 6 hr precipitation valid Saturday afternoon, showing generally light to moderate precipitation over our area and heavier precipitation offshore. To the right, we can see the GFS forecast surface pressure...which shows the surface low well out over the Atlantic Ocean.

Essentially, the potential does exist for some light to moderate snow over our area Friday Night into Saturday as the storm organizes. That being said, the potential for a moderate impact event is very low...as the storm system is forecast by all guidance to develop very far away from our area. Still, we could see some light accumulations throughout most of the area if the forecast models are correct. Uncertainty is still very high -- so stay tuned! There is still the potential for things to change dramatically

Finally, as the system phases, the Polar Vortex is pulled southward over New England later Saturday into Sunday. This will bring a shot of Polar Air to the entire area -- likely meaning one of the colder nights/days of the winter the second half of this weekend.

Light snow may brush the area Wednesday Night

2012-02-07T13:05:00.002-05:00

This winter, any frozen precipitation has been a big story. The same can be said for the upcoming light snow potential on Wednesday Night. An event which in other winters would be considered a nuisance, snow could begin later Wednesday afternoon across Southwest New Jersey. It will spread north and east with time, and may even be mixed with rain near the immediate coast. However, the potential for up to an inch of snow does exist across some isolated locations in Southern or Central New Jersey if all goes well. Forecast models are currently hinting at the snow persisting for a few hours at most, as the precipitation transfers to a surface low which will be forming well off shore. In fact, this transfer is one of the reasons why the snow will have trouble making it to the NYC Metro area. Instead, the forecast there will call for a potentially brief period of flurries or light snow. Pictured right: Our storm total snowfall forecast valid through Thursday morning. Up to an inch of snow across parts of interior Central and Southern New Jersey, with just some snow in the air elsewhere..including the shore.

After this system, more fair weather is expected for the latter half of the week. The weekend could offer a slight chance of a coastal storm system as a mid level disturbance moves northeast from the Southwest United States and attempts to interact with the Polar Vortex to our north. However, most forecast models show this storm system well out to sea...so confidence in anything noteworthy is currently extremely low. We'll keep an eye on it.

Article written by JH. Published February 7th, 2012 at 1:00pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Another relatively quiet week on the way

2012-02-06T14:24:00.003-05:00

This winter can, so far, certainly be remembered for its lack of heavy precipitation events and general potential for winter precipitation. This trend will continue this week, as the atmosphere continues to offer quiet and generally transitional weather. Temperatures will warm slightly today into the 50's, before a weak frontal boundary passes on Tuesday. This will usher in some cooler air, but temperatures should still reach slightly above average during the day. By Wednesday, our weather "highlight" of the week will arrive as a weak mid level disturbance moves northeast along this frontal boundary from the Mississippi Valley through the Northeast US. This should be enough to touch off some light precipitation (likely in the form of snow for most areas) which could impact our area Wednesday Night. The precipitation is expected to be light and generally a nuisance -- although we can't rule out a dusting or a trace of snow on the colder surfaces. More fair weather is expected for the latter half of the week. The weekend could offer a slight chance of a coastal storm system as a mid level disturbance moves northeast from the Southwest United States and attempts to interact with the Polar Vortex to our north. However, most forecast models show this storm system well out to sea...so confidence in anything noteworthy is currently extremely low. We'll keep an eye on it. Otherwise, enjoy another relatively quiet weather week! Pictured right: NAM model showing some very light snow moving through the area late Wednesday.

Article written by JH. Published February 6th, 2012 at 2:20pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Week begins with a warmup

2012-01-30T00:51:00.001-05:00

The atmosphere has been in a bit of a swing over the last few weeks, often flipping from cold to warm within a span of 5 days. In fact, several weeks in the last few months have featured dramatic temperature swings in either direction. This week will be no different, as we will start the week with temperatures slightly below normal, but warm up to above normal by Wednesday afternoon. The culprit is a mid-level ridge in the atmosphere, building ahead of a disturbance in the Central US. The warmth on Wednesday could be pronounced in spots, with temperatures again reaching into the middle to upper 50's. It will be short lived once again, though, as a surface cold front swings through shortly thereafter. By Thursday and Friday temperatures should be below normal once again -- with a chance of rain and snow showers as well. In summary -- we'll have a little bit of everything on the table this week. Certainly won't feel like much of a change -- this has been the tale of the winter so far! Featured right: NAM model showing temperatures near 60 degrees Wednesday afternoon ahead of a front.

A final note -- we're nearly finished with our storm summary for the January 21st, 2012 snowfall event which impacted our area just over a week ago. We'll be posting the details..including a map and storm total snowfall reports in the coming days. We wanted to thank everybody who submitted a report or observation to us during the storm. Although the contoured snowfall maps aren't released yet, you can still check out the Winter Storm Archive 2011-2012 which is available to the public. We've updated the archive with all the articles and forecasts we published from the event -- and the two other events this winter. Enjoy!

Article written by JH. Published January 30th, 2012 at 12:59am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Rainy finish to the week

2012-01-25T23:03:00.000-05:00

A relatively quiet week will end with more active weather, as a storm system approaches our area from the west. The storm system is forecast to track so far west, in fact, that temperatures on Friday could reach well into the 50's (to near 60) near and behind an area of moderate to heavy rain. This rain will begin early Thursday as showers, but a period of more steady rain is expected near a frontal boundary later Thursday afternoon and evening. The showery conditions are expected to continue through Thursday Night and Friday morning. With the system tracking so far to our north and west, our area will be in the "warm sector" (area ahead of the cold front with southerly winds) and temperatures will warm into the 50's before its arrival. The frontal boundary will likely bring another period of moderate to heavy rain as well as some gusty winds. Total precipitation values are expected to be between 0.5 and 0.75 inches, although some isolated areas could pick up closer to an inch of precipitation. Behind the front, cooler weather will return once again as we head into the weekend. Pictured right: GFS model showing the storm system (pictured as surface pressure) impacting the eastern US on Thursday afternoon.

Finally, if you haven't checked it out already, we published a new Technical Forecast Discussion earlier today. Our technical discussions are a much deeper meteorological read than our usual posts (hence the name "technical") and are more targeted towards meteorology enthusiasts or professionals/forecasters in the community. In the article, we talk about the current pattern...where have have been so far this winter...and where we are likely going from here. Check it out, and let us know what you think!

Article written by JH. Published January 25th, 2012 at 11:00pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Clearing out for Sunday, but active pattern continues

2012-01-21T20:30:00.003-05:00

The first moderate (major in some areas) snowstorm of the winter blanketed the area with snowfall Friday Night through Saturday morning, leaving much of the area looking like it should in winter...for the first time this season. Temperatures will drop again tonight as skies clear and the snow cover helps keep things colder than usual. The clear skies will remain in place through early Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. However, the fair weather will be relatively brief as a very active weather pattern continues across the Eastern United States. A strong storm system will drive towards the Central United States Sunday through Monday, so far west in fact that our area will warm up considerably by the time it gets here. Clouds will be on the increase by Sunday afternoon with scattered precipitation breaking out by evening. Forecast models are indicating the potential for precipitation to begin as a period of freezing rain or freezing drizzle across the interior. No major accumulations are expected, but the roads could be quite icy and slick for a while. Afterwards, though, the warm air will win out. Temperatures will warm up considerably through Monday before a cold front passes Monday afternoon with the potential for rain and wind. Behind this system, temperatures drop to near normal yet again...but the snow pack probably won't make it out alive. Pictured right: NAM model showing a major storm system over the Central US, and a cold front with associated moderate to heavy rain affecting our area Monday afternoon.

WE NEED YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS!

If you haven't submitted them yet, reply to this post or get in contact with us via Facebook or Twitter. We'll be using as many snowfall reports as we can to organize a contoured map of snowfall, and to publish our forecast verification. We hope to have this completed within a few days.

Finally, a big thank you to everybody who viewed a forecast, stayed in contact with us, shared a forecast, or interacted with us. We love staying in touch with you all and giving you a personal weather forecast experience. Have a great weekend!

Winter storm to impact the area tonight into Saturday

2012-01-20T18:25:00.002-05:00

If you don't count the out-of-season snowstorm this past October, it's been nearly a year since New York City and surrounding area(s) were impacted by a moderate snowstorm. Things will change beginning tonight and continuing through Saturday. A winter storm is on it's way, and it will deliver a moderate snowfall for most of the area, including much of New Jersey, New York City, Southeast New York, Connecticut, and Long Island. Almost all areas should see at least some snow from this system, with a majority of the area likely seeing 2 to 5 inches of snow. That being said, forecast models still indicate a bit of a "battle ground" of sorts over New Jersey as warmer air works in over the mid levels of the atmosphere. This will bring sleet and potentially freezing rain into the forecast over Central New Jersey and portions of the New Jersey shore by later Wednesday morning..as well as possibly working towards Southern Long Island. Where this specific boundary sets up will determine where the heavier snow falls, and which areas have their snowfall totals hampered by mixed precipitation. Our latest snowfall forecast map is posted to the right -- but we've got the down and dirty details on the storm below.

Watches and Warnings: The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories for the entire forecast area for the potential of 3 to 6 inches of snow, with 4 to 8 inches in some areas. Click the above link for text and details.

EXPECTED TIMELINE OF EVENTS...

Rest of tonight: By evening, clouds begin to increase...lower...and thicken. It will start "feeling like snow" as some would say. Radar images could start to indicate snow by 10pm, but most of that will be "virga" (or radar indicated precipitation that doesn't reach the ground) due to the dry air at the low levels of the atmosphere.

11:00pm Friday - 2:00am Saturday: Overcast skies, with the potential for flurries in the air. After midnight, light snow begins from west to east. Areas of moderate snow will begin to move eastward from Pennsylvania and begin affecting Western New Jersey.

2:00am Saturday - 6:00am Saturday: Moderate snow throughout the entire forecast area. Localized areas of borderline heavy snow are possible in some locations. Snow should begin to accumulate, but will take longer to do so in the city and near the immediate shore due to southeast winds off the water.

6:00am Saturday - 11:00am Saturday: Moderate snow continues throughout most of the area. Over Central New Jersey, the New Jersey shore, and the South Shore of Long Island...snow may begin to mix with sleet or freezing rain. Elsewhere, moderate snow will begin to show signs of tapering off from west to east...especially over Western New Jersey.

11:00am Saturday - 3:00pm Saturday: Snow ends from west to east, possibly ending as sleet or graupel as far north as New York City. The snow will be slowest to end over Connecticut and Long Island, and could continue into the afternoon there. Skies will gradually clear by around 8pm.

STORM OVERVIEW, ORIGIN, AND CONCERNS...

This storm system is unique in it's origin and track/strength. It certainly does not fit the mold of the storms we have been experiencing over the past several years. Instead, it's moving towards our area from the southwest. The storm is actually relatively weak, but the gradient in the pattern (between warm and cold) will create enough lift for precipitation. The surface low pressure is expected to track from the Plains, through the Central US, and then towards the Ohio Valley. Here, the storm will meet resistance from a disturbance to the north (and at the surface, a building high pressure). This will force the storm to slide east/northeast and re-develop off the coast (if it didn't, we'd be looking at a rain storm). The nature of the event also ensures it will be relatively quick, and that high snowfall amounts are out of reach. Still, the potential for 6 inches in some locations is remarkable for this winter so far. Pictured left: NAM model showing the storm system at the surface (left) and the precipitation (right). Notice the weak and strung-out nature of the surface low.

In terms of what could go wrong, our focus is on the potential for mid level atmospheric warming. This event is originating from our southwest, and southwest winds in the atmosphere are helping to bring the system towards us. However, these southwest winds are advecting warm air towards the area as well. So, we are all watching carefully for the potential for this warm air to make it slightly farther north than forecasted by most guidance. If it did, the cold upper levels and warm mid levels would mean snowflakes could form, but would melt to liquid in the warm layer as they fell. Finally, at the cold surface (where we are)...they could re-freeze into sleet or freezing rain. This "warm tongue" as we call it in meteorology is currently not forecast to make it farther north than Central New Jersey. But forecast models aren't perfect--and can sometimes be off with their forecast of these features. We will be watching very carefully. Pictured right: Our snowfall probabilities table, including percentage chances for 1, 4, 6, and 8 inches of snow at several locations.

Light to moderate winter storm on the way

2012-01-20T00:55:00.001-05:00

Tonight's clipper event may not have provided the snow that some have been waiting for, but we can assure you that you won't be waiting much longer. An approaching storm system will bring moderate precipitation beginning in the Early AM on Saturday, and continuing through Saturday afternoon and evening. Forecast models have been highly inconsistent with this storm system, but the latest trends on forecast guidance have brought a colder and snowier consensus just 24 hours or so prior to the event. Confidence is increasing in the potential for a moderate snowfall for most of the area, including much of New Jersey, New York City, Southeast New York, Connecticut, and Long Island. That being said, forecast models still indicate a bit of a "battle ground" of sorts over New Jersey as warmer air works in over the mid levels of the atmosphere. This will bring sleet and potentially freezing rain into the forecast over Central New Jersey and portions of the New Jersey shore by later Wednesday morning. Where this specific boundary sets up will determine where the heavier snow falls, and which areas have their snowfall totals hampered by mixed precipitation. Our latest snowfall forecast map is posted to the right -- but we've got the down and dirty details on the storm below.

Updated 2:00pm January 20th, 2012: We've updated the image to the top right with our latest snowfall forecast. You can also check our probabilities table here. The older forecasts will become available for archived viewing after the storm.

EXPECTED TIMELINE OF EVENTS...

During the day on Friday: Clouds begin to increase gradually throughout the day. No precipitation expected -- we may see the vast majority of the day feature sun. By evening, clouds begin to increase...lower...and thicken. It should start feeling like snow by evening.

11:00pm Friday - 3:00am Saturday: Overcast skies, with the potential for flurries in the air. After midnight, light snow begins from west to east. Areas of moderate snow will begin to move eastward from Pennsylvania and begin affecting Western New Jersey.

3:00am Saturday - 7:00am Saturday: Moderate snow throughout the entire forecast area. Localized areas of borderline heavy snow are possible in some locations. Snow should begin to accumulate, but will take longer to do so in the city and near the immediate shore due to southeast winds off the water.

7:00am Saturday - 11:00am Saturday: Moderate snow continues throughout most of the area. Over Central New Jersey, the New Jersey shore, and the South Shore of Long Island...snow may begin to mix with sleet or freezing rain. Elsewhere, moderate snow will begin to show signs of tapering off from west to east...especially over Western New Jersey.

11:00am Saturday - 3:00pm Saturday: Snow ends from west to east, possibly ending as sleet or graupel as far north as New York City. The snow will be slowest to end over Connecticut and Long Island, and could continue into the afternoon there. Skies will gradually clear by around 8pm.

STORM OVERVIEW, ORIGIN, AND CONCERNS...

This storm system is unique in it's origin and track/strength. It certainly does not fit the mold of the storms we have been experiencing over the past several years. Instead, it's moving towards our area from the southwest. The storm is actually relatively weak, but the gradient in the pattern (between warm and cold) will create enough lift for precipitation. The surface low pressure is expected to track from the Plains, through the Central US, and then towards the Ohio Valley. Here, the storm will meet resistence from a disturbance to the north (and at the surface, a building high pressure). This will force the storm to slide east/northeast and re-develop off the coast (if it didn't, we'd be looking at a rain storm). The nature of the event also ensures it will be relatively quick, and that high snowfall amounts are out of reach. Still, the potential for 6 inches in some locations is remarkable for this winter so far. Pictured left: NAM model showing the storm system at the surface (left) and the precipitation (right). Notice the weak and strung-out nature of the surface low.

In terms of what could go wrong, our focus is on the potential for mid level atmospheric warming. This event is originating from our southwest, and southwest winds in the atmosphere are helping to bring the system towards us. However, these southwest winds are advecting warm air towards the area as well. So, we are all watching carefully for the potential for this warm air to make it slightly farther north than forecasted by most guidance. If it did, the cold upper levels and warm mid levels would mean snowflakes could form, but would melt to liquid in the warm layer as they fell. Finally, at the cold surface (where we are)...they could re-freeze into sleet or freezing rain. This "warm tongue" as we call it in meteorology is currently not forecast to make it farther north than Central New Jersey. But forecast models aren't perfect--and can sometimes be off with their forecast of these features. We will be watching very carefully.

OVERVIEW VIDEO...

Earlier this evening, we released another storm overview video. Here, you'll find even more details..thoroughly explained...with plenty of images and maps. If you feel like really getting a grasp on what's going on Friday Night into Satuday..we suggest checking it out. We hope you enjoy it!

Winter may finally make an appearance this weekend

2012-01-18T01:58:00.003-05:00

Update: The forecast hasn't changed too much over the past 24 hours since we wrote this detailed blog post on the potential winter weather this area, but there definitely have been some adjustments. The clipper system affecting our area Thursday Night into Friday looks like more of a nuisance than anything, with the potential for a coating to less than an inch of snow over the interior..with some snow showers and squalls around the area. The second storm system continues to remain uncertain, with forecast models split between warmer and colder solutions. The warmer solutions would provide the area with a period of snow/sleet followed by a changeover to rain...and no accumulation near the coast or in the city. The colder solutions would mean a more prolonged period of snow...even near the coast. Although accumulations in the city and coast seem unlikely, the colder solutions would definitely make things interesting..and would certainly provide a moderate snowfall over the interior. Our latest forecast discussion video below details all of the possibilities with this storm system, including the processes behind it. Check it out! We'll have constant updates with new information as soon as we get it over the next few days.

Previous Post (from January 18th, 2012) ...

It certainly has been a good amount of time since we've had to talk about snow in the forecast. And while these upcoming two events aren't going to bring back memories of snowy winters past, they will definitely bring the potential for light accumulating snows...which is something we haven't been able to say much so far this winter season. The first of the events won't near our area until Thursday Night, so we have a few days of fair weather to iron out the forecast. Wednesday and Thursday look fair and somewhat chilly, as new cold air builds into the area. The system approaching later Thursday Night is associated with a low pressure area well to our north, and the moisture associated with the system will barely "clip" our area. However, the potential does exist for an inch or two of snow...most likely away from the shore and city...in the early AM hours of Friday. The snow probably won't be falling hard enough (with surface temperatures near or above freezing) to stick in the city itself and near the immediate shore areas.

The second event, likely to impact our area Saturday into Sunday, features the potential for more steady precipitation...but also comes with a ton of uncertainty. Forecast models are waffling between colder and warmer solutions. The colder solutions could provide an "advisory level" snowfall (3-5") for most of the area, while the warmer solutions would likely bring only a light amount of snow...followed by a changeover to rain. Given the atmospheric pattern settled in place (one generally unfavorable for snowfall), we're edging slightly towards the warmer solutions. However, this event still has the potential to produce a few inches of snow..event in the city...so stay tuned for sure. There is an increasing likelihood of a few inches of snow over interior locations, with the potential for moderate snowfall amounts (more than 3 inches). We'll be watching carefully, and keeping you all informed over the next few days.

Article written by JH. Published January 19th, 2012 at 12:40am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Period of wintry weather possible tonight in the suburbs

2012-01-16T16:03:00.002-05:00

An approaching storm system will bring warmer air with it tonight into Tuesday, but the cold air which has settled in over our area will be stubborn initially. The situation becomes somewhat complicated tonight, as warm air surges into the area in the middle levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, however, cold air will hold on a bit longer than usual, creating an unbalanced "sounding" of the atmospheric profile. Essentially, the warm air aloft will cause the snow flakes to melt, but the cold air at the surface could cause sleet, or the rain that falls to freeze. In some interior locations, there could be a period of snow as well before the mid levels of the atmosphere warm up. This will create a few hours of wintry conditions, mainly over the interior. And although we may see a few flakes or sleet in the city...it will be short lived and a quick change to rain is expected thereafter. The change to rain will work through the entire area by Tuesday, as the cold air settled in at the surface loses the battle with the push of much warmer air associated with the storm system. By mid-afternoon, in fact, the city could reach the middle to upper 40's. Pictured right: Forecast assessment for the system tonight into early Tuesday. A period of wintry weather is expected over the interior, and although snow/sleet accumulations are forecast to be less than an inch, freezing rain or sleet could cause some slick roads and travel difficulties.

The process which causes the potential for sleet and freezing rain (or as we refer to it, a "wintry mix") is pretty complicated, and sometimes difficult to understand. But to make things more simple, it involves warming of the atmosphere above our heads...and stubborn cold air right near our heads at the surface. Warm air advection (or a push of warm air towards our area) occurs in the mid levels of the atmosphere, while the cold air at the surface remains. The image to the left is a forecast sounding, or a vertical profile of the atmosphere. The forecast is valid at Morristown Airport, New Jersey...at 15 hours from the 1800 UTC run of the NAM model, or valid for the early AM hours on Tuesday. The red line shows the temperature throughout the atmosphere, and the pink line represents 0 degree celsius, or freezing. You can see the warm air push in the mid levels (the red arrow points this out), and the cold air remaining in the very low levels (the blue arrow points this out). The area which we live in is the very lowest point of the sounding. If you could imagine a snowflake forming around the middle of the sounding and falling, the flake would melt where the temperature rises to greater than 0 degrees celsius, and then re-freeze into either sleet or freezing rain at the surface. Some stray snowflakes could make it down as well.

With time, these soundings warm up by Tuesday morning and afternoon...and precipitation will change to all rain throughout the entire forecast area. Still, the period of wintry weather over the interior, however brief it may be, could cause some slick roads and travel difficulties as well as some very light accumulations. The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories for much of the interior. Check it out, and stay here for more information throughout the night and into Tuesday.

Article written by JH. Published January 16th, 2012 at 4:00pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Moving forward, pattern looks to offer more of the same

2012-01-15T03:27:00.000-05:00

Roughly halfway through meteorological winter, New York City still sits with a Trace of snow. Much of the same can be said for many major reporting stations throughout the area. Now, to be fair, this doesn't include the October snowfall...which until this point has been the only "noteable" snowfall since last winter. The pattern has been dominated by, for the most part, unfavorable meteorological teleconnections for snow. That is, the pattern...taking into account many meteorological indices and normals...just won't cooperate right now if you're looking for sustained winter weather. We'll take a look at where we have been, where we're at now, and where we are headed..below. A word of warning: If you're here looking only for news of a wintry pattern, we don't have much good news. So you may want to save yourself the time. We hope you all enjoy the video -- and feel free to comment and chat with us on the upcoming pattern.

Article written by JH. Published January 15th, 2012 at 2:55am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Arctic front brings strong winds on Friday

2012-01-13T01:55:00.002-05:00

Although this winter has not offered much snow or cold air thus far, it has been fairly active with storm systems moving through the area every couple of days. The end of this week will be no different, as an arctic cold front will sweep through the area Friday afternoon. With it, will come a drop in temperatures and more notably a dramatic increase in winds. The pressure gradient between a departing storm system and a new high pressure, coupled with the strength of the cold front itself, will set the stage for an afternoon characterized by very strong wind gusts out of the west-northwest. In fact, the winds could reach over 40 to 50 miles per hour at times. In addition, showers will be around in the morning near the frontal boundary. Generally, not a pleasant day at all to close out the week. Highs will be in the low to mid 40's, but will fall throughout the day. With winds gusting near 50 miles per hour at times, it will feel raw and generally nasty outside at times even with some sunshine. By evening, temperatures will fall into the 20's throughout the entire area. Pictured right: NAM model showing sustained winds over 20 knots throughout the area on Friday.

The weekend, although sunny, also looks cold...and windy to start. The breezy conditions will continue through Friday Night and into the first half of Saturday. Highs will struggle to reach above freezing, and Saturday Night, low temperatures will fall into the single digits and teens throughout the forecast area. Sunday's highs will be in the mid to upper 20's throughout most of the area. So although precipitation isn't an issue this weekend (other than maybe a stray snow shower on Saturday or Sunday), the cold arctic air will certainly be a shock to the system.

THE FORECAST AT A GLANCE... (or see the overview)

Today (Friday): Mostly cloudy early, with a chance of showers. Then becoming partly cloudy. Very windy, with west-northwest winds between 20 and 30 miles per hour, gusting to near 50 miles per hour at times. High near 44, dropping throughout the day. Chance of precipitation is 40% early.

Tonight: Mostly clear and windy, with a low around 27. West wind 15 to 25 miles per hour, with gusts near 40 to 45 miles per hour at times.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy, with a high near 33. West winds 15 to 20 miles per hour, gusting near 30 miles per hour at times.

Saturday Night: Clear and cold, with an overnight low near 14. Northwest winds 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 32. Cold.

Article written by JH. Published January 13th, 2012 at 1:52am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Active start to the new week

2012-01-09T02:15:00.000-05:00

If you were hoping for a calm weather pattern this week, we can't offer much good news for you. Granted, this pattern won't provide us with tons of precipitation and terrible weather, but there will certainly be a lot going on around us as an active weather pattern settles in. High pressure over the area will control the weather on Monday as a storm system approaches from the west. This will be a relatively weak disturbance, which will pass to our south Monday Night. There is the chance for some light snow showers with this system (or possibly even rain showers near the immediate coast), but most forecast models have backed off on any potential precipitation. Still, we can't rule out a period of light rain or snow Monday Night into Tuesday morning. This system moves out of the picture, but clouds will be increasing again by Wednesday as a stronger storm approaches from the southwest. This system will get scooped up by an approaching disturbance, phase with it, and force the development of a new storm off the coast. Pictured right: GFS model showing precipitation to the south of the area Monday Night into Tuesday morning.

Cold air will not be in place prior to the storm, so seeing snow is highly unlikely throughout most of the area, but there is the potential for some snow to begin the storm system across the far interior and northern locations...specifically the NW Hills of New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Litchfield Connecticut. For the rest of the area, a period of moderate to heavy cold rain on Thursday morning. We will certainly keep you updated on both of these systems during the week -- and we'll get a better idea on the exact effects of the stronger mid-week system as we move forward. Stick with us!

THE FORECAST AT A GLANCE... (or see the overview)

Today (Monday): Partly sunny, with a high near 43. A light breeze, becoming a south wind at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Feeling pretty chilly compared to the weekend weather.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of light snow or flurries (flurries or drizzle near the coast). Low near 35, with a southwest wind around 5 miles per hour. No accumulations expected, but even a flake of snow is exciting considering the trends so far this winter.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high around 45. West wind between 8 and 14 miles per hour. A bit breezy, still chilly, no precipitation to speak of. Not a bad day.

Article written by JH. Published January 9th, 2012 at 2:10am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Warming towards normal to close out the week

2012-01-05T12:42:00.001-05:00

Temperatures dropped into the single digits and teens throughout the area earlier this week (Tuesday Night) but as quickly as the cold air seemed to get here, it has moved out. The current atmospheric pattern doesn't support any sustained cold air, and as expected this airmass was in and out fairly rapidly. Aside from a few snow showers, it didn't provide much of a chance for wintry weather throughout the area either. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will moderate more towards normals for the date, with highs reaching into the low to mid 40's (maybe even a hint above normal in select locations). The weather is expected to be pleasant, luckily, with no real chances at steady precipitation through the weekend. Sunday will be a bit cooler than the rest of the weekend, though, as a cold front moves through Saturday night. The next precipitation chance will come early next week, when energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere passes to the south of our area. This may touch off some rain or snow showers near or just to the south of our area. We will certainly be watching to see if the forecast guidance trends any stronger with this feature. Featured right: NAM model showing forecast high temperatures in the 40's on Friday.

THE FORECAST AT A GLANCE... (or see the overview)

Today (Thursday): Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. West winds between 10 and 15 miles per hour. Feeling warmer than the past few days for sure, but still chilly out there. Dress warmly.

Tonight: Some clouds, with a low near 32. West winds between 5 and 10 miles per hour. The clouds should be in and out overnight.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Southwest winds between 5 and 10 miles per hour. Feeling warmer once again, as temperatures will be above seasonal normals.

Article written by JH. Published January 5th, 2012 at 12:40pm. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Arctic air intrudes for the first time this winter

2012-01-03T01:36:00.005-05:00

Say what you will about this season so far, but there certainly has been a noticeable lack of winter-like weather throughout the entire area. No matter how you slice it, temperatures are running a few degrees above average throughout the entire forecast area as a whole since the beginning of December (or the start of meteorological winter). Since that point, New York City has seen no measurable snowfall and even interior locations are struggling with very minimal snowfall to speak of. The problem is, really, that there has been an absence of cold air. And although this arctic air intrusion won't provide the potential for any measurable snow, the first real push of arctic air into the area is always noticeable in every winter. This one will certainly be no different, and in fact may be more of a shock to the system than others as we are coming off some mid-50 degree temperatures this past weekend. An arctic front will cross the area Tuesday, changing the feel of the air for a day or two. The atmospheric pattern doesn't support any prolonged periods of cold air (the lack of snow makes sense when you think about it, huh?) so this arctic airmass will be in and out in about two days. Pictured right: NAM model, showing the forecast low temperatures throughout the area Tuesday Night through Wednesday morning.

Temperatures Tuesday will drop during the day, and northwesterly winds will become moderate to strong for a period during the afternoon. To set the scene, some flurries may be in the air in response to a mid level disturbance in the atmosphere. The real cold will come Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning, when temperatures will fall into the teens in the city and near the coast and into the single digits inland. This will be the coldest air we've seen so far this season. High temperatures Wednesday will again be slightly below freezing, with another chance at some flurries. However, by the end of the week the big trough responsible for the arctic air will begin to lift out, and temperatures will slowly rebound towards normal...into the 40's for highs.

THE FORECAST AT A GLANCE... (or see the overview)

Today (Tuesday): Partly sunny and breezy, with a chance of flurries. High near 30, falling throughout the day. West winds 15 to 20 miles per hour, potentially gusting higher. Not a pleasant day if being comfortable outside is your desire.

Tonight: Mostly clear and very cold. Overnight low near 15. West winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. The coldest night of the year so far. A very bold statement. Seriously, though, the coldest night of the winter season for sure...you'll want to seriously bundle up if you're headed out.

Article written by JH. Published January 3rd, 2012 at 1:36am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Weather Event of the Year 2011: October Snowfall

2012-01-01T15:45:00.004-05:00

To say that 2011 featured dramatic swings and variety in weather throughout our area would be a tremendous understatement. The year began with historic snowfall in January, with two monster snowstorms whcih left our area firmly in winters grasp. After a wet spring, temperatures soared to a complete opposite extreme in the end of July. Newark, New Jersey recorded a record high temperature of 108 degrees which is almost unheard of for our area -- even in the summer. Three straight days of 100+ F temperatures took the summer heat to an entirely new level. An earthquake rocked the mid-Atlantic, and Hurricane Irene impacted our area later in August with tropical storm to weak-hurricane force winds. Had enough? We weren't done yet. In late October, old man winter reminded us that he was on his way. And it was enough to win the Weather Event of the Year in 2011. Pictured right: NAM model's forecast track of the October 28-29th, 2011 snowstorm a few days before it impacted our area.

The historic early-season snowstorm on October 28-29, 2011 was voted the #1 NYC Weather Event of 2011 by our readers. This doesn't come as much of a surprise to us, though, as this system arguably had the greatest impact on our area. The powerful Nor'Easter developed on October 28-29 and moved up the east coast to a point just off the coast of New Jersey and southeast of Long Island. Unseasonably cold air and very strong winter-like dynamics produced a heavy, wet snowfall for much of the area especially over the interior. Some areas in New Jersey and Connecticut receieved nearly 20 inches of snow -- unheard of for the month of October. The combination of the heavy snow and the still leafed trees was a disaster. Trees and branches feel throughout the entire area--knocking out power to hundreds of thousands of people. The power remained out for days, while many cleaned up the damage to houses, cars, property, etc.

There were 10 storm related deaths in Connecticut, 8 in New Jersey, and 3 in New York. In total, 1,830,000 people in our area lost power at some point as a result of the storm system. Thousands in Connecticut did not have power restored for well over a week. To put the storm in a bit of perspective, New York City's total October snowfall (in history) prior to the October 28-29, 2011 system was under 2.0". The October 28-29, 2011 storm itself produced over 5.0" of snow for New York City. The historic nature, and dramatic impact of the storm system made this a very good choice for the top weather event of the year. Pictured left: NAM model showing forecast surface temperatures (left) and precipitation in 3 hours (right). The image shows the intense precipitation and cooling of temperatures that allowed for snow to fall at such an unusual date.

Over the next week or two, as promised, our forecasting team will work on an official case study on the event. It will then be published to the blog for you all to read. We hope you enjoyed voting and interacting with us on the Top NYC Weather Event of 2011, and we are looking forward to an exciting (but safe) 2012 in weather!

Weather event of the year 2011 | Voting Begins!

2011-12-24T13:19:00.004-05:00

The nominations are in, and we're ready to begin the voting for the NYC Area's top weather event of the year for 2011. This is the second year that we are running this poll -- and we have already received a tremendous amount of interest. Last year, we were in the midst of an extremely active winter weather pattern and the winning event was the December 2010 blizzard which coincidentally occurred as the voting was open. This year, in a more quiet pattern, we have plenty of time to reflect on the weather events from the past year. There are 7 days left to vote (voting closes December 31st, 2011 at 11:59pm). After voting, our forecasters will produce and publish a case study on the winning event, so vote wisely! We're excited to hear back from all of you in regards to which event was your favorite. If you have the time, chat with us on Facebook or Twitter about your experiences in each of these events, or even reply to this post below. Don't forget to submit your official selection, though, which can only be counted if you click the event below. Get voting, friends! Pictured right: 2010's winning event, The "Boxing Day Blizzard" of December 26th, 2010, was a historic nor'easter which hammered the area with extremely heavy snow and historic impacts.

Nominations begin for weather event of the year 2011

2011-12-21T12:34:00.001-05:00

We are approaching the end of the calendar year, which means it's time for our annual weather event of the year voting! Last year, we were in the midst of an extremely active winter weather pattern and the winning event was the December 2010 blizzard which coincidentally occurred as the voting was open. This year, in a more quiet pattern, we have plenty of time to reflect on the weather events from the past year. In the spirit of social networking and integration, we encourage you to reply to us on Facebook or Twitter with your nominations. We will continue nominating for a few days (or until we get an overload of nominations). Voting will then begin and will run through January 1st, 2012. At that point, we will announce the winner and then conduct a case study on the winning event. Exciting, no? Get voting! We've included some potential events below, in case you happened to forget what went on this past year. Pictured right: Radar imagery from 2010's winning event, the December 26th 2010 "Boxing Day" Blizzard. This storm brought over 30 inches of snow to some locations throughout the area, as well as several hours of blizzard conditions. Travel delays and power problems were extensive.

Nominate an event on Facebook | Nominate an event on Twitter

-January 12th, 2011 snowstorm
-January 26-27th, 2011 snowstorm
-Record setting heat in July (108 degrees at Newark, 3 straight days of 100 degrees)
-Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene
-Historic October snowfall

Active pattern as we approach holiday weekend

2011-12-19T22:14:00.002-05:00

The long stretches of relatively calm and benign weather are likely to be in the rear view mirror over the next week or so, as a very active weather pattern sets up over the Eastern 1/3 of the United States. A frontal zone will set up near the area beginning the middle of this week, serving as a relative highway for low pressure areas to track along. The first storm system will approach the area Wednesday Night, with showers likely throughout much of the area. Precipitation type isn't expected to be much of a problem with this one, although some sleet may mix in over Northern areas early in the storm. Clear weather will briefly build in on Thursday, but another storm system is expected to track near or just south of the area on Thursday Night through Friday morning. This system could offer more problems as far as precipitation type, especially away from the immediate coast. Some snow and sleet are definitely possible, with light accumulations. Near the coast, mostly cold rain is expected. Yet another storm system could approach the area beginning Christmas Eve (we know, this is getting rather repetive isnt it?) with precipitation problems once again expected away from the coast. There is a ton of uncertainty here, as the exact track and strength of the system will determine where the chips fall as far as precipitation type. Accumulations should generally be light to moderate, nothing overly significant, but could still cause some travel headaches. One thing is for sure, we will be here to keep you updated! Pictured right: NAM model showing an extremely active pattern across the United States, with several areas of energy poised to affect the region.

THE FORECAST AT A GLANCE...

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 46. North winds generally around 5 miles per hour.

Tuesday Night: Increasing clouds. Low near 39. Winds turning east, around 5 miles per hour.

Wednesday: Rain likely, with a brief period of sleet or snow possible in the interior and highest elevations. Winds south around 10 miles per hour. High near 53. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 0.25" and 0.50" expected.

Article written by JH. Published December 19th, 2011 at 10:!4pm. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the remainder of the week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Cooler weather is back, but clouds stick around

2011-12-16T23:14:00.002-05:00

One thing is for sure, the cold front that came through the area early Friday brought some cold and wind with it! In fact, temperatures dropped during the day on Friday in some areas as the winds picked up and the new, cold airmass moved in. High pressure will build into the area only briefly, though, as three low pressure systems will write the story for the areas weather this weekend into early next week. First, a system is sliding south and east of the area tonight bringing clouds and some scattered showers to Southern New Jersey. This system will be out of the picture by Saturday morning. However, a mid level disturbance will move overhead, bringing more clouds into the picture and a chance for a very widespread sprinkle or flurry. Then, high pressure builds in for the end of the weekend before a front nears the area on Tuesday...and brings the potential for light rain or rain/snow mix in some areas...before a larger storm system rides the front mid-week and brings more rain to the area. A busy weather pattern for sure! This weekend, however, the main story will be cooler...with clouds hanging around Saturday, followed by clearing on Sunday which will be the brighter day of the weekend for sure. Pictured right: NAM model showing it's forecast for a high pressure building over the east coast on Sunday.

THE FORECAST AT A GLANCE...

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High near 42. Northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Overnight low near 28. Northwest winds around 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High near 36. Northwest winds around 10 mph.

Article written by JH. Published December 16th, 2011 at 11:14pm. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the remainder of the week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Wednesday salvaged, showers on the way late week

2011-12-14T01:32:00.001-05:00

A relatively quiet week of weather will continue into Wednesday, as a high pressure system hangs on over the forecast area. Some high clouds built into the area overnight, but have since dissipated. The high pressure will be slowly shifting away from the region, but will suffice to keep our area sunny and dry for the middle day of the week today. An approaching storm system from the southwest will bring increasing clouds by later Wednesday into Thursday, and and the likelihood of showers Thursday into Thursday night. However, before then, Wednesday looks to be pleasant, with a good deal of sun and temperatures rising into the mid to upper 40's. Winds should continue to be relatively calm, not offering much disruption. Essentially, another average day temperature wise for this time of year. Thursday looks to be warmer -- but the presence of showers and rain will keep it rather damp and dreary despite temperatures into the 50's. Looking ahead, the good news is that Friday looks to clear out for another fair-weather weekend. Pictured right: NAM model depicting high pressure hanging onto control of the weather through Wednesday afternoon.

THE FORECAST AT A GLANCE...

Today (Wednesday): Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. Increasing clouds late. East winds around 5 miles per hour.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy, with a chance of showers. Low near 42. South wind around 5 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than 0.10" possible.

Thursday: Cloudy, with showers likely. High near 56. South winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of 0.10" to 0.25" possible.

Article written by JH. Published December 14th, 2011 at 1:32am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the remainder of the week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Geminid meteor shower peaks tonight

2011-12-13T13:48:00.003-05:00

There's no denying it: meteor showers, so far this year, have been relatively lackluster. But the last meteor shower of the year 2011 may have a few surprises up its sleeve. The annual Geminid meteor shower peaks tonight, December 13th through December 14th, and usually offers one of the best shows of the entire year. Although historically the Perseid meteor shower is the more active, the past several years have proven otherwise, as the Geminid meteor shower has offered brighter and more vibrant meteors. This will be especially important this year, as a bright full moon will bring light pollution to the night sky. This has hurt our chances of seeing a handful of usually moderately visible meteor showers -- the full moon, in those cases, stopped us from seeing the show. However, this time around, NASA says the bright glow of the Geminids assures us the capability of seeing a steady rate of meteors. "Observers with clear skies could see as many as 40 Geminids per hour," predicts Bill Cooke of the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office. "Our all-sky network of meteor cameras has captured several early Geminid fireballs. They were so bright, we could see them despite the moonlight." The best time to look is between 10 pm local time on Tuesday, Dec. 13, and sunrise on Wednesday, Dec. 14th. Geminids, which spray out of the constellation Gemini, can appear anywhere in the sky. "Dress warmly and look up," says Cooke. "It's that simple." Featured right: A Geminid meteor as captured in 2009.

METEOR SHOWER ROUNDUP: If you want to catch the Geminids tonight, dress warmly, and look to the night sky after 10pm. The moon will be bright, especially at first as your eyes are adjusting, but try and not stare at it if possible. The Geminid meteors will be bright enough so that you will still see a healthy dose of them, despite the moonlight.

WILL THE WEATHER COOPERATE? The magical question! It wouldn't be any fun if there were cloudy skies tonight, would it? Luckily, as it appears now, we will be able to squeek out tonight's peak viewing before the clouds move in. There is a system to the southwest of us, which will begin to stream high clouds into the area well into the overnight. But for those watching the meteors, it looks like we will be able to have several hours of viewing before these clouds get into the area. These clouds can be quite unpredictable, though, so if you see skies starting to cloud up -- don't panic. They probably will be in and out rather quickly. The steady and solid deck of clouds isn't forecast to move into our area until the early morning hours of Wednesday, or maybe even a bit later than that. Temperatures will be chilly once again, into the 30's in most areas, but luckily not quite as frigid cold as the past several nights. You'll still want to bundle up, though, for sure! Pictured left: NAM Model showing clouds staying just to the west of the area, valid for 10pm tonight December 13th, 2011.

Article written by JH. Published December 13th, 2011 at 1:47pm. Some information courtesy of NASA. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.