Newswatch

Makerfield by-election result not a dead cert

2026-06-04T18:21:25.518+00:00

The media appear to have come out of hibernation following parliamentary recess and the Bank Holiday break.

With virtually nothing to report over the previous week apart from the exceedingly warm weather, June has begun with a swathe of headlines.

Polling day nears in the Makerfield by-election, with battle lines drawn. Restore Britain, Rupert Lowe's party, may take some of Farage's wind from his sails as traditional Reform voters drift towards Restore.

It’s been a week of rudeness, rows and revelations in the Makerfield byelection campaign. Not between Andy Burnham and his challengers for the seat – but between Reform UK and its even more rightwing rival, Restore Britain.

Restore has claimed increasing support for their candidate Rebecca Shepherd with polls varying between 7% and 24%. The higher figures may be somewhat optimistic but the swing away from Reform has appeared to rattle Farage who insisted only his candidate, Robert Kenyon, “can stop Andy Burnham."

"This is a two-horse race – nobody else comes close,” Farage insists.

But it's far from a two horse race. The Makerfield by-election has become a circus with 14 candidates standing.

There are of course the traditional parties, the Conservatives represented by Michael Winstanley, Labour with Andy Burnham contesting the seat, in the hope of later challenging Keir Starmer and oust him from No.10, and the Lib Dems with their candidate Jake Austin. But there are the emerging parties which will certainly shape the political battle grounds.

The parties that will tip the balance in this election are Reform UK, with its contentious candidate Robert Kenyon, Restore Britain, with its candidate Rebecca Shepherd, and the Green Party with its last minute replacement Sarah Wakefield.

But there are the fringe candidates that may also shape this key political battle.

Often dismissed as a wasted vote, the likes of Count Binface, Alan 'Howlin' Laud Hope of The Official Monster Raving Loony Party, and other single issue candidates could take away votes from the two main contenders, Burnham and Kenyon.

Remember that the by-election for the constituency of Runcorn and Helsby on 1st May 2025 was secured by Reform UK with just 6 votes. Collectively the minor candidates took over 1000 votes.

With many of these leaning to the left or fringe lunacy with the Monster Raving Loony Party taking 128 votes, Reform UK would be unlikely to gain from any of these. Indeed it's likely Labour lost votes to these fringe parties. Labour took 12,639 in Runcorn against Reform UK's 12,645.

While Labour, and particularly the incumbent prime minister Keir Starmer, may be fighting an existential crisis and upon which this by-election hinges, so too is Reform UK.

Farage and his party Reform UK feel as though they are on a roll. Certainly their support has grown. But their base has shifted as their policies and organisational structure has changed.

Traditional more right-leaning supporters have been dismayed as Reform UK has drawn in more ethnic minority candidates. The party's apparent softening of its immigration and repatriation policies has also angered the base who are abandoning the party for Restore Britain which are currently 3% in the polls.

Restore Britain is hardly likely to gain any seats with such low polling. Even with proportional representation, they might barely scrape a single candidate into parliament. But such splits could cost Reform UK many votes, and with many constituencies on a knife-edge, this may be as much an existential crisis for Reform UK.

In the 2024 general election Reform UK revelled in securing five seats in parliament. The impetus was Farage's last minute decision to push out Clacton's candidate and put himself forward. This brought media attention and publicity, and helped bolster the party's position. Farage took the seat from long standing Conservative candidate Giles Watling. With 21,225 votes he now had an 8,405 majority.

Richard Tice's majority was significantly smaller however. In his Boston and Skegness seat Tice has only a 2,010 majority. Lee Anderson, who defected from the Conservatives, maintains a larger 5,508 majority over his Labour rival.

James McMurdock and Rupert Lowe, with 98 and 1,426 majorities respectively, left Reform UK following their wins. Lowe was the first to go after being suspended and started his own party; Restore Britain. McMurdock courted controversy following his election concerning a conviction of assault on his ex-girlfriend dating back to 2006. McMurdock left the party in July 2025 following allegations that he had received £70,000 in Bounce Back business loans during the COVID-19 pandemic and currently stands as an independent MP.

Down to just three elected MPs, Reform UK increased its numbers through a number of Tory defections: Danny Kruger, Robert Jenrick, Andrew Rosindell and Suella Braverman. Its only electoral win since 2024 was the aforementioned Runcorn by-election which was secured by Sarah Pochin.

The Conservatives may have been kicked into the long grass, politically speaking, but Farage and his party are not gaining significant support. If anything much of the Conservative base has swung towards the Lib Dems who are the third biggest party in the Commons with 72 MPs.

Farage's comments following the murder of a white man in Southampton who was mistakenly arrested and handcuffed by police as he lay dying from 9 stab wounds will no doubt come back and haunt him.

Following the release of police body-worn camera footage and the conviction of a Sikh man who had falsely claimed he was the victim of racist abuse, despite being the murderer, Farage said, “I suggest the rest of us respond to this with pure cold rage."

Within hours hundreds of right-wing protesters battled with police in Southampton, throwing bins, bottles and other projectiles in residential streets as they attempted to make their way to the family home of the convicted murderer with some in the crowd shouting “Rupert Lowe”. Despite Hampshire Police saying 11 officers and a police dog were injured during the violent disturbances in Southampton only two arrests were made. [BBC / Daily Mail / Sun]

The following day at PMQs, and as the residents of Southampton were clearing up and repairing the damage caused by the rioters, Farage attempted to further capitalise on events asking whether Nowak’s death was a clear indication of two tier policing.

He was given short shrift by the PM who accused Farage of having no respect for Nowak’s family given they had specifically asked that their son’s murder not be politicised.

During the Reform UK Party leader’s question he was continually heckled from across the house with calls of “shame on you” and suggestions that he condemn the violence seen the previous day.

Instead, Farage went on to suggest there might be further violence to come, whilst battling against boos and heckles.

Amongst those seen to berate the right-wing leader were three Lib Dem MPs. Cameron Thomas, Danny Chambers and Luke Taylor were sitting directly behind the Reform UK leader, heckling and shouting "Condemn the violence!" and "Shame on you!"

They had clearly learnt the ropes of parliamentary protocol and secured their places ahead of Farage’s anticipated question to the PM.

Reform UK is on a "small parties rota" of leaders of the minor parties, and, with eight MPs, qualifies for a question to the PM every seven or eight weeks. Farage had not been in parliament for some time, but was widely expected to attend this particular session.

Things did not go as swimmingly as he might have expected. He provoked a furious, if pre-prepared, response to his question from the PM and was condemned by MPs across the house both during and after the session.

While he and other Reform MPs sat with smug expressions upon their faces as they were criticised, their arrogance may turn some voters away from the party.

Of course it’s not a certainty that Andy Burnham will sail into a seat with ease. But the conceited attitudes of Reform UK may better his chances.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Bank holiday heatwave mayhem

2026-05-27T12:47:21.989+00:00

Fights, stabbings and murder mar hot sunny weather on Britain's beaches.

Police across the UK were deployed this week to deal with disorder on many beaches as temperatures soared into the thirties.

In Bournemouth hundreds of youths, many of them black, marauded and chased individuals, some of which had to be rescued by police, who themselves were heavily outnumbered.

Footage posted on social media showed swathes of black men chasing people across the beach as innocent sun seekers scattered.

In Brighton a man was stabbed near to the beach, and police in Essex were deployed in huge numbers to disperse people believed to be heading to the area for a so-called Southend Purge.

Posts on TikTok and other social media platforms had encouraged people to head to beaches to party and bring drink and drugs, whilst other posts appeared to urge a day of violence by encouraging people to bring weapons.

In Southend a dispersal order was put in place and police were deployed at stations as well as along the coast after a beach party was advertised on social media as both the "Southend Takedown" and the "32C Southend Beach Step". [BBC / Twitter/X ]

A number of arrests were made throughout the day for offences including possession of drugs and bladed weapons. Police said they had seized three knives and made 13 arrests by the end of Tuesday.

In Wales a murder investigation was launched after a man was spotted in the water at a beach. Emergency services were called to the scene in Barmouth on Monday shortly after 15:00 BST, but despite efforts to save the 34-year-old he was later pronounced dead. A 24-year-old man from Birmingham was arrested on suspicion of murder and is in custody. [BBC]

Meanwhile a teenage boy was stabbed on Brighton seafront next to a crowded beach on bank holiday Monday, police said. Sussex Police said it received reports of a large group of people fighting in the area of Shelter Hall food court, on Kings Road Arches, at about 21:30 BST. The victim, a boy from Surrey, was taken to hospital for treatment, where his injuries were confirmed to be superficial. [BBC]

Further along the coast police officers were assaulted at Bournemouth beach during "disorder involving a large number of people", Dorset Police said. One local who saw the drama unfold told the Sun it was "absolute chaos." He described how a mob chased a man across the beach until he fell. “They were kicking him in the head and punching him multiple times. Someone stomped on his head and another person drop-kicked him.”

Police eventually moved in to rescue the man from the crowd. Despite large numbers of officers drafted into the area, violence continued into the evening with a number of police officers attacked with glass bottles and other missiles, though injuries were said to be minor. [The Sun / Daily Mail]

Many of the violent incidents appeared to involve large numbers of black youths prompting some racially critical social media posts to emerge. Some blamed the descendants of the Windrush generation and parents failing to instill discipline on their feral children. Other posts were critical of the London Mayor, blaming inner city decay for creating a breeding ground for large numbers of violent mainly black teenagers who had headed from the capital to Britain's coasts during the heatwave.

Whether predominantly black or otherwise there were several other factors that fanned the flames for the violence that ensued over the Bank holiday period.

Social media clearly played a part in attracting such large numbers to key locations, with many posts encouraging people to bring drugs and weapons.

Be it TikTok, Twitter/X or other online platforms, it is clear that there is little, if any, scrutiny or blocking of posts attempting to organise violent gatherings.

This is just the latest of a social media organised flash mob. Two months ago schools across parts of Britain especially in and around London were under alert after social media posts attempted to rally pupils of one school to attack rival schools. There was some suggestion that such posts were created by AI Russian bots to create problems on Britain's streets. But whoever creates such posts, the end result is the same.

Easily persuaded individuals take the bait and like sheep get drawn into the mêlée.

The disaffected youth, especially in deprived areas of urban areas across Britain, are a prime target for such online mischief. Often undereducated they are easily motivated and persuaded to join in without thinking through the consequences.

Another factor was the large amount of alcohol consumed, as well as drugs, during very hot weather.

Beach brawls are perhaps nothing new. The sixties saw mobs of Mods and Rockers converging on the likes of Brighton for clashes during Bank Holidays. But, the phenomena seen this last week has raised concerns that something else is happening in society which is more dangerous and sinister.

While the disorder and chaos seen in various coastal locations was significant, it could have been much worse. Pro-active policing managed to control some of the mayhem. But much more needs to be done.

The purchase and consumption of alcohol clearly needs to be controlled where large crowds are expected to gather on very hot days. Social media companies are clearly unable to police themselves and need to be controlled with tighter laws and heavier sanctions. And possession of weapons such as swords and machettes need to be dealt with with stronger custodial sentences. Other anti-social practices also need to be policed also. Bringing loudspeaker systems to the beach might seem fun, but they can often create friction when one group of people take offence at the loud music being played. Far better, perhaps, to ban loudspeakers from the beach altogether.

[pictures via social media and Essex police]

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Is Iran an existential threat?

2026-03-26T19:06:00.001+00:00

While the US President Donald Trump's reasons and legality for striking Iran are tenuous there are some clear and present dangers that many people are ignoring.

It can reasonably be argued that Trump launched his military action in contravention of 'international law'. He did not seek prior approval from Congress or the Senate, nor did he consult other allies, except Israel with who it took part.

His reason however, is that Iran was nearing completion of building a nuclear bomb, and decisive military action was needed to eliminate the threat from the Islamic state.

Trump, nor indeed Israel, has failed to present 'proof' that Iran was close to developing a nuclear bomb. And this has left many allies reluctant to offer military support despite the effects on the flow of oil from the region that has resulted from Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, what cannot be disputed is that Iran has, for a long time, been developing projects which has produced significant quantities of 60% enriched Uranium 235.

The evidence for this lies with the International Atomic Energy Authority [IAEA] which calculated in its September 2025 verification and monitoring report that on the eve of the June 2025 attacks by Israel and the United States, Iran possessed 440.9 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% of the explosive uranium isotope, U-235 [Arms Control Center / IAEA PDF]

Fearing that Iran was weeks if not days away from 90% weapons grade enrichment, the US launched a series of strikes aimed at sites where it was believed Iran was storing or enriching such materials.

On the 22nd June 2025, the United States Air Force and Navy attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran as part of the Twelve-Day War, under the code name Operation Midnight Hammer. The Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant, the Natanz Nuclear Facility, and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center were all targeted with fourteen GBU-57A/B MOP "bunker buster" bombs carried by B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, and Tomahawk missiles fired from a submarine.

Concerns grew over the weeks following the attacks that Iran may have moved some of their precious Uranium. Satellite pictures published later appeared to show lorries queueing at Fordow leading to speculation that Iran's enriched Uranium may have been moved to various secret locations around the country.

While the White House stated in June 2025 that there was no sign it was moved prior to the strikes with top officials suggesting it was buried under rubble, many news outlets raised concerns that Iran might have saved its nuclear material.

The Telegraph [Paywalled] reported in June 2025 that satellite images showed lines of trucks at Fordow before the US strikes, with analysts suggesting materials were frantically moved.

Other reports suggested the surgical strikes failed to completely destroy Iran's stockpiles and core components of the country's nuclear program and likely only set it back by months [CNN].

And even if the facilities had been destroyed there were suggestions that Iran could retrieve the material buried under the rubble [BBC / NYT].

Such reports are supposition and cannot be independently verified. But even a small amount of nuclear material could pose a deadly threat to Iran's sworn enemies.

The big question on many people's minds is whether the US had actionable intelligence to warrant its military action against Iran.

The concern too is whether Iran was or still is pursuing the development of a nuclear weapon. Iran claims it isn't and that all nuclear research is for peaceful purposes, such as medical research or energy creation.

However, given the continued rhetoric over the years and statements suggesting it might develop a weapon should it be attacked, the fear is that Iran was already developing a weapon, or worse already developed and produced one.

Taking it as fact that Iran was seeking to develop a nuclear bomb, and that it still has at least some of the 440kg of 60% enriched U-235, how much of a threat is Iran following Operation Midnight Hammer and the more recent ad ongoing Operation Epic Fury?

It is widely believed that to build a viable nuclear bomb, one needs U-235 enriched to 90%. While many bombs created use highly enriched U-235, often referred to as 'weapons grade uranium', it is in fact possible to build a bomb with U-235 as low as 20% enriched.

Take at least 780 kilograms of 20% enriched uranium 235, slam two non-critical mass chunks of them together in a gun type assembly and you have a crude nuclear bomb.

The more enriched, the less fissionable material is needed. Moreover, after you've surpassed the hurdle of amassing the U-235 the making of a viable device is relatively simple.

While most modern nuclear bombs are extremely complex in order to promote a high yield device, the first nuclear bombs were relatively simple 'Gun-type' weapons.

In basic terms this requires sending a chunk of U-235 at high speed down a tube toward another chunk of U-235.

With regard to the risk of proliferation and use by terrorists, the relatively simple design is a concern, as it does not require as much fine engineering or manufacturing as other methods. With enough highly enriched uranium, nations or groups with relatively low levels of technological sophistication could create an inefficient - though still quite powerful - gun-type nuclear weapon.

Conventional thinking is that no-one would make a weapon with anything below 90% enrichment because the bomb would be too cumbersome.

Uranium must have a minimum of 20% U-235 in it in order to be useful in making a nuclear bomb. However, a bomb made with uranium at this minimum level of enrichment would be too huge to deliver, requiring huge amounts of uranium and even larger amounts of conventional explosives in order to compress it into a supercritical mass. In practice, uranium containing at least 90% U-235 has been used to make nuclear weapons. Material with this level of enrichment is called highly enriched uranium or HEU. The bomb that destroyed Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, was made with approximately 60 kilograms of HEU. Highly enriched uranium is also used in research reactors and naval reactors, such as those that power aircraft carriers and submarines. The HEU fuel meant for research reactors is considered particularly vulnerable to diversion for use in nuclear weapons [IEER PDF].

As little as 40 kg of 60%-enriched uranium can be used to build a crude nuclear weapon with a kiloton yield. While too large to fit on a missile, such a weapon could be delivered by shipping container.

Given Iran has [or at least had in June 2025] an estimated 440 kg of 60% enriched U-235 it could conceivably make ten 1 kt bombs.

Loaded into shipping containers and exploding in major cities around the globe, the shock to the global economy and world order would be more catastrophic than the potential physical damage.

A 1-kiloton (kt) nuclear ground burst in London would cause severe localized damage, creating a crater and immediate lethal radiation zone within a few hundred meters, with moderate structural damage extending up to 1 kilometer. The immediate blast radius would be relatively small compared to the city's size, but radioactive fallout would pose a significant hazard [Arxiv].

Such scenarios are dismissed by many as being far-fetched and the stuff of Hollywood movies such as the Sum of All Fears. But fundamentalist, radical terror states have already been seen to carry out major atrocities.

Terror attacks by fundamentalist groups in the past three decades seen planes flown into buildings, trains and buses blown up or crowds targeted with vehicles used as weapons. The use of a nuclear weapon is not beyond the realms of possibilities.

But there are other just as nightmarish threats from Iran's possession of nuclear material. Even if it cannot assemble a nuclear bomb Iran possesses the technical expertise and access to many radioactive isotopes, such as Cesium-137 and Cobalt-60 from medical/industrial sectors, to develop radiological dispersal devices. Some analysts suggest Iran might employ these through proxies such as Hezbollah or the Houthis for plausible deniability.

There are growing concerns that it could use what nuclear material it can salvage to construct a number of so-called 'dirty bombs', or radiological dispersal devices [Remm].

In the same way a small 1 kt nuclear bomb would not cause much physical damage, an RDD is designed less for mass destruction and more for contamination, disruption, and psychological impact.

Such concerns have long existed with many nations having conducted exercises to determine how they might identify or deal with such an event.

In London, around 20 years ago, part of the financial district was sealed off as authorities conducted several counter-terrorism exercises in the city to prepare for potential chemical, biological, or radiological attacks, including scenarios involving a "dirty bomb" or RDD [Guardian]. No similar exercises have taken place since.

An RDD attack is unlikely to kill large numbers of people in a short time. The problem instead is a potential cancer timebomb hanging over the affected area for a generation [BBC].

Clean-up would cost millions of pounds, but the perceived threat could linger even after authorities declare the area safe. Should such a device be placed in the centre of a major city it could arguably kill the economy of that city. Tourists would be unlikely to visit for years, workers would insist on relocation, and transport infrastructure would be decimated, cutting off links between parts of the city.

Delivery of such a weapon could be carried out in any number of ways. One threat is via missile. It is now widely believed that Iran has the capability of hitting any European country.

It is unknown what stockpiles Iran still possesses after three weeks of US bombing, but its inventory prior to Operation Epic Fury was far more extensive than most people realize [Iran Watch]. Media reports indicate growing concerns that Iran could resort to using a 'dirty bomb' [India Today / e-arc].

Iran's capability may of course be severely degraded, as the US president maintains. But there is another concern should Israel or the US hit the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, either deliberately or accidentally. Indeed there have already been some strikes close to the plant [Al Jazeera].

Any strike, deliberate or accidental, would result in the release of radioactive material. Given the prevailing wind patterns and maritime conditions in the Gulf, contamination would almost certainly drift westward, potentially affecting population centres and critical infrastructure across Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait.

As seen following Chernobyl and more recently, Fukushima, the regional consequences of a nuclear 'accident' would be significant and long-lasting.

There is another serious and overlooked threat. That is Iran's chemical weapons capability [Telegraph paywalled].

Although Iran is a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention [CWC] and has formally renounced the development and possession of chemical weapons, it has faced international scrutiny regarding potential covert chemical capabilities [FDD].

There are many - critical of the US and Israel - that have suggested military action is only likely to antagonise Iran into retaliation and that it would be unlikely to make a first strike deployment, be it with conventional, chemical or nuclear weapons.

The behaviour of Iran over the years would suggest otherwise.

It has since the 1979 Islamic revolution funded proxy terror group including, but not confined to, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has engaged in a sustained campaign of violence, terrorism, and clandestine operations against Western nations, primarily targeting the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, alongside Israeli interests. Using the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] and proxies such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, Tehran has conducted embassy bombings, kidnappings, hijackings, and assassination plots.

Key Attacks and Operations (1979–Present)

1979–1981: U.S. Embassy Hostage Crisis: Iranian students, backed by the new regime, took 66 Americans hostage at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran for 444 days.

1983: Beirut Bombings: Hezbollah, with Iranian support, bombed the U.S. Embassy in Beirut (63 dead) and the Marine barracks (241 U.S. service personnel killed).

1984: CIA Station Chief Kidnapping: Hezbollah kidnapped CIA Station Chief William Buckley in Beirut, who was later tortured and killed.

1985: TWA Flight 847 Hijacking: Hezbollah hijacked a flight from Athens to Rome, murdering a U.S. Navy diver on board.

1985–1986: Paris Attacks: Hezbollah agents carried out a series of bombings in Paris, killing 20 people and wounding hundreds.

1996: Khobar Towers Bombing: Iran-backed Hezbollah Al-Hijaz bombed a U.S. Air Force housing complex in Saudi Arabia, killing 19 U.S. airmen.

2003–2011: Iraq War Proxies: Iran provided explosives (EFPs) and training to Shia militias in Iraq, which killed hundreds of U.S. and coalition troops.

2011: Washington D.C. Assassination Plot: The US foiled an IRGC plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States in Washington.

2012: Burgas Bus Bombing: Hezbollah bombed a bus of Israeli tourists in Bulgaria, killing 6 people.

2019: Saudi Aramco Strikes: Attacks on Saudi oil facilities, widely attributed to Iran, caused major disruptions to global energy supplies.

2020: U.S. Base Attacks: Following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Iran launched ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq, causing brain injuries to over 100 U.S. personnel.

2024-2026: Ongoing Threats: Iran has escalated its use of criminal proxies to target Israeli and American interests in Europe and the UK. In early 2026, amid intense regional conflict, Iran was linked to over 20 potentially lethal attacks on UK soil [FDD / Wikipedia].

While there is some legitimacy to take the decision to wage against the rogue state, reasons and focuses keep changing. At first Trump appeared to point to regime change, but soon focused on the nuclear threat that Iran posed. As the war continued into its third week and Iran essentially closed the Strait of Hormuz, the war threatened the flow of oil. As this threatens to trigger an global energy crisis, a slump in food production as fertilisers become unavailable and the risk of a global recession grows, Trump appears to have little if any plan as to how to proceed.

He claims to have forced Iran to the negotiating table but described Iran's negotiators as strange. Meanwhile, Iran have insisted they are not negotiating with the US. And in the meantime missiles continue to rain down across the region with no apparent end in sight, and with a growing risk the whole region could go up in flames. Worse still, the war could spread to other parts of the world with lone wolf terror attacks and growing economic fallout.

tvnewswatch, London,UK

Iran's top nuclear negotiator & de facto leader killed

2026-03-17T12:25:00.001+00:00

Talks between Iran's top nuclear negotiator and key European foreign ministers ended Friday 3rd March 2006 without a breakthrough on Tehran's nuclear ambitions, the German Foreign Ministry office said. A British official in Vienna told CNN that Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, offered nothing new during the session, and that the European delegation reminded him that Tehran must stop uranium enrichment on its soil and come clean about its program.

Almost exactly twenty years later Ali Larijani was targeted by Israeli military strikes in an ongoing military operation that sought once and for all to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions and subjugate the tyrannical regime.

Ali Larijani was a longtime Iranian political insider who had an important role following the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei on the 28th February 2026.

Taking up the role as secretary of Iran's National Security Council in 2005, Larijani's role was to draw up nuclear and other policies by Khamenei. He left the post in 2007.

In March 2025, US president Donald Trump sent a letter to Iran seeking to reopen nuclear weapons negotiations. The response from the supreme leader was stark. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei later said, "Some bullying governments insist on negotiations not to resolve issues but to impose their own expectations," which was seen as in response to the letter. Soon after in late March 2025, Larijani said Iran would have no choice but to develop nuclear weapons if attacked by the United States, Israel or its allies.

On the 5th August 2025, Larijani was appointed by President Masoud Pezeshkian to become secretary of the Supreme National Security Council for a second time. Since January 2026 Larijani was the de facto leader of Iran and remained so as the supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was targeted and his son and successor Mojtaba Khamenei was believed seriously injured.

However, on the 17th March Larijani's career came to an abrupt end after he was targeted by an Israeli strike. It remains to be seen whether Iran's nuclear ambitions ended with the death of one of the country's key protagonists.

Larajani's demise cannot be underestimated. He has been front and centre of the Iranian power base for at least 20 years. He has obfuscated and impeded all efforts by the West to temper Iran's nuclear ambitions.

And it's those ambitions that are behind the reasoning of the allied US/Israeli military operation.

There are indeed many that have seriously questioned the US initiated attack on the regime, asking where the evidence concerning Iran's nuclear ambitions.

While no hard evidence has been presented to the world, all the signs indicate that Iran was pursuing to enrich weapons grade Uranium and build a bomb. Should it have succeeded, the West, and Israel in particular would face an existential threat.

Iran has made clear with its continued rhetoric that it sought the demise of the Israeli state and the US with chants of "Death to America" and anti-Zionist slogans.

Those that have called for the US and Israel to take a step back have been likened to Neville Chamberlain, who historically failed to see the threat that Hitler and Nazi Germany posed.

How long was the West, Israeli, or indeed their allies supposed to wait? Until Iran declared it had a bomb? Or until an orange glow and a mushroom cloud rose over Tel Aviv or a Western European capital?

What many appear to have failed to appreciate is that the Iranian leadership have, over the past forty years, funded an asymmetrical war on the West and its assets by arming Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

The destruction and dismantling of the Iranian regime was going to happen sooner or later. But perhaps better sooner, than after their perceived ambitions were realised.

Of course, there is a slim chance as some believe, that it may already be too late and that Iran had already built a viable atomic device. If true there may well be an imminent threat levelled against the West. This could be behind the reluctance of many European countries wanting to become involved in Trump's war, not least because of a concern that such action could light a fuse of home grown Islamic terrorist attacks.

This is a real and probable threat. However, ignoring Iran and hoping the problem would quietly go away was only ever going to delay the inevitable.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Starmer premiership becoming untenable

2026-02-03T15:36:00.001+00:00

Upon his appointment as US ambassador in 2024 the UK PM Keir Starmer hailed Lord Mandelson for bringing "unrivalled experience" to the role.

His then Foreign Secretary David Lammy said Mandelson had "a wealth of experience in trade, economic and foreign policy from his years in government and the private sector".

Meanwhile the peer said he was deeply honoured, promising to "advance our historic alliance with the United States".

An unnamed Labour MP meanwhile said, "Mandelson is very good at making relationships, [he] has unmatched negotiation skills as shown in his EU trade commissioner role and has a trade union background which is overlooked. Trump is transactional, and Mandelson will be able to cope with this."

Another suggested he would look like an angel! "In a room with Trump, Mandelson will look like an angel. But this is politics, hard politics." [Guardian]

Dubbed the "Prince of Darkness" during his years as New Labour's spin doctor, following the release of the Epstein files he was more like the kiss of death to the party, the government and the PM himself who had appointed him to the post. Not so much an angel as a devil in disguise.

Even before the Epstein files were released, raising issues concerning Mandelson's integrity, he had been a divisive figure in British politics over many years.

He resigned twice as a minister - once for failing to declare a home loan from a cabinet colleague, and a second time over accusations of using his position to influence a passport application. This should have perhaps raised alarm bells long before his appointment as US ambassador [BBC].

His appointment was specifically arranged by No.10 rather than following usual diplomatic procedures. This in itself was unusual. In fact Lord Mandelson's appointment was the first political rather than diplomatic appointment to Washington since Peter Jay, the former prime minister James Callaghan's son-in-law, in 1977.

Jay's appointment was far from controversial however, and he had a notable career both within politics and journalism.

At various times, Jay was also economics editor of the Times newspaper, presenter of ITV's Weekend World, British Ambassador to Washington, launch chairman of TV-am.

He was, by coincidence, the chief of staff to Robert Maxwell, father of Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein's former girlfriend, socialite and, who alongside Epstein, was found guilty of child sex trafficking and other offences.

Robert Maxwell, a press mogul, fell to his death from his £15m yacht, the Lady Ghislaine, off the Canary Islands, aged 68. Even now there is talk of suicide, or murder – perhaps by Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service, according to some theories.

Whether or not his death was an accident, controversy followed Maxwell's death. As his body was recovered revelations emerged of the squandering of pension funds.

For Oxford-educated Ghislaine, the youngest of his nine children, Maxwell's money had provided status and a ticket to the elite. She was dispatched to New York initially as a meeter-and-greeter, to pave her father's way when he bought the Daily News. After his death, she made it her home. She soon became part of Epstein's inner circle and remained there for more than a decade. The two were reportedly briefly an item and they remained close.

She is said to have facilitated Epstein's social contacts, flying with him on his private jet and organising dinners for influential people at his homes. One acquaintance described her as "half ex-girlfriend, half employee, half best friend and fixer". Epstein described her, in a 2003 Vanity Fair profile, as his "best friend" [Guardian].

Whilst Robert Maxwell was alive and hosting events, many attendees spoke of their being uncomfortable in his presence.

Among them was the Labour party's then director of communications, Peter Mandelson. "It was very strange because you'd simultaneously want to be at Maxwell's parties and at the same time shrink away from him," he remembers. "Because he was such a bully and so unpredictable. To be honest, I was frightened of his company. He had that ability to make you feel completely small and inadequate, and that just scrambled my head."

It is clear that he was far more comfortable in the company of Robert Maxwell's daughter's new associate, Jeffrey Epstein, as well as Ghislaine herself [Guardian].

But what did Keir Starmer know of Mandelson's relationship with Epstein at the time he was appointed ambassador?

In early 2024 the FT journalist Jim Pickard posed a question to Keir Starmer referencing a J.P.Morgan probe which suggested that in June 2009, when he was the UK business secretary, Mandelson stayed at Epstein's lavish townhouse in Manhattan, while the financier was in prison for soliciting prostitution from a minor [Daily Telegraph paywalled / Archived]

Keir's response to Pickard was, "I don't know any more than you and there's not really much I can add to what is already out there I'm afraid" [Twitter X].

This was, of course before Starmer became PM, since he had yet to win the, as yet unannounced, 2024 election. But as leader of the Labour party the conversation should have surely registered in his mind before appointing Mandelson to his new post less than 12 months later.

Starmer's claim that he knew little about Mandelson's close relationship with Epstein is somewhat incredulous given historical articles that detailed not only the peer's friendship with the convicted paedophile but also that Starmer had likely been made aware of the reports.

Surely he can't have failed to have noticed photos published in The Sun in 2022 depicting Peter Mandelson in 2007 grinning as Jeffrey Epstein blew out the candles on a birthday cake soon after Epstein had been charged in an underage sex probe.

Blame might also be attributed to Starmer's advisers. Surely the likes of his Cabinet Secretary Chris Wormald or his predecessor Simon Case should have alerted the Prime Minister to the likely pitfalls of placing Mandelson in the role of US Ambassador.

Or what of Morgan McSweeney who replaced Sue Gray as his Chief of Staff soon after Starmer took office. Indeed there are already accusations coming from the opposition benches as to what advice McSweeney might have offered concerning Mandelson.

Mandelson's historical reputation as a spin doctor might have been enough for some. But times have moved on from the days of Bush and Blair.

There will be many who will have forgotten the days when Blair was accused of being Bush's poodle. But such times have passed, and with Trump in the White House Mandelson was clearly not the right man for the job. One needed a rottweiler, much less a poodle, as Britain's representative in the White House, and certainly not the weasel that Mandelson turned out to be.

It can be argued that Starmer is as much to blame as his advisers and Mandelson himself.

He and many within the high ranks of government have proved themselves to be untrustworthy, sly, and possibly cowardly, manipulative and of evading all or any responsibility, whilst attempting to shift the conversation concerning their inept decisions to that of thoughts for Epstein's victims, as if one had forgotten.

Starmer failed to remain in the House of Commons as the opposition and many amongst Labour's own ranks berated the government concerning Mandelson's appointment.

The Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones was left to answer on Starmer's behalf as one MP after another demanded answers.

Alex Burghart, the Conservative MP for Brentwood and Ongar, called for answers as to who knew what and when concerning Mandelson and said "something has gone very wrong" concerning his appointment

Labour MP Emily Thornberry asked whether police might not be involved concerning Mandelson's actions, behaviour and accepting of monies from a convicted paedophile.

The Conservative MP for Christchurch Christopher Chope raised the question - given Mandelson's involvement, a well known homosexual - concerning Epstein's possible involvement in trafficking boys and young men, as well as girls and young women. Jones refuses to speculate but expressed the hope that it wasn't the case. Further, that was for Mandelson to answer.

Many also called for the peer to not only be stripped of his peerage but also face criminal proceeding after it emerged that Mandelson had "leaked a sensitive UK government document to Jeffrey Epstein while he was business secretary that proposed £20bn of asset sales and revealed Labour's tax policy plans" according to the Financial Times.

Starmer's calls for an inquiry, and moves to strip Mandelson of his peerage, might be too little too late.

The knives were already out before this latest fiasco, even within Labour ranks. This could be the final chapter in this latest political saga.

Beware the Ides of March.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Zelenskyy under pressure over corruption scandal

2025-11-20T12:33:00.000+00:00

The Ukraine President is facing a crisis on three fronts as he battles against a corruption scandal at home, a proposed iniquitous 'peace deal' drawn up between Russia and the US and continuing bombardment from Russian strikes.

On Wednesday 19th November reports emerged that US and Russian officials had drawn up what was described as a 'peace proposal'. However it has been criticised for being one of capitulation for Kyiv who would be forced to cede territory and reduce its armed forces should it accept the 'deal' [Axios / Guardian].

The plan contained terms that closely mirrored Moscow's longstanding demands, a senior Ukrainian official briefed on the proposal told AFP on Wednesday [Moscow Times].

Zelenskyy, who has been visiting Turkey on a new peace drive in recent days, is expected to meet US Army officials on Thursday ahead of the G20 in Johannesburg, South Africa on Saturday [Reuters].

The Trump administration will be hoping that Kyiv will accept the iniquitous deal seen by critics as one of appeasement rather than a peace deal. They may also be hedging their bets given growing problems within Zelenskyy's own administration.

In recent months the Ukrainian president has faced a backlash over reports of corruption. The country has had a long history of corruption. But the recent reports could tear apart the cohesiveness of his administration which has otherwise been a core of strength in a four year long war.

The headlines make salacious reading with talk of 'golden toilets' and 'bags of cash' being smuggled out of the country. It is a scandal that could see the Ukrainian government being brought down as major figures stand accused of corruption and embezzlement.

According to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine [NABU] some £76m has been skimmed from Ukraine's energy sector by business leaders and officials. This has led to calls for Zelenskyy to fire his long-standing chief of staff Andrii Yermak [pictured above, left].

A former film producer, Yermak has served as the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine since the 11th February 2020. But while he has not been accused of profiting from embezzlement, he has been accused of stifling anti-corruption investigations.

NABU says it has uncovered a high-level criminal scheme at the heart of the government involving Ukraine's nuclear energy body, Energoatom, which runs three nuclear power plants supplying Ukraine with more than half of its electricity. The investigation alleges that insiders received kickbacks of 10-15% from Energoatom's commercial partners.

The issue is particularly sensitive as ordinary Ukrainians have to endure daily power cuts as a result of Russian attacks on the country's infrastructure.

The accused mastermind behind the scheme, Timur Mindich, a close personal associate and business partner of Zelenskyy, has reportedly fled the country, just hours before NABU investigators arrived at his home where they found a bathroom fitted with a gold toilet.

Images of such excess will be difficult for Zelenskyy to explain. His enemies, both at home and abroad, will make political capital from the revelations. Political opponents at home will no doubt pressure Zelenskyy to sack key individuals from his administration, while seeking to secure stronger positions in the way Ukraine is run [Telegraph - paywalled].

Beyond its borders, Ukraine's enemies will seek to capitalise on the revelations. Russia will no doubt pressure the American administration to take advantage of a politically weakened Ukraine. The Trump administration may too see the advantage of exploiting the situation. A signed 'peace deal' - even one of attrition - would be welcomed by Trump as an achievement; another in a long line of conflicts and wars he has claimed to have ended.

The scandal will be an embarrassment to Ukraine's closest allies. While there has been no official or public comment from European leaders, many may well feel cheated by the revelations.

Conspiracy theories have long portrayed Zelenskyy as being corrupt and there have been accusations he has personally benefited from money given to the country to buy weapons.

One debunked theory is that the Ukrainian president bought luxury yachts with American aid money. The Russian disinformation plot was successful however. The false reports took off online and were echoed by members of the US Congress who were making crucial decisions about military spending [BBC].

But while those specific reports have been put to bed, the latest scandal - with headlines about gold toilets and bags of cash - do nothing to silence the critics and further bolster those who perpetuate conspiracy theories.

This latest scandal could be a turning point. It could all go south and see the country collapse and Russia ceding vast swathes of territory as the political turmoil ensues.

But it could see Zelenskyy grasping the nettle and turning the situation around.

The former president, Petro Poroshenko has called for the current cabinet to be sacked and for a government of national unity to be formed. This is unlikely to happen since Poroshenko was himself embroiled in a defence procurement scandal, which played a role in his 2019 defeat and which saw Zelenskyy winning on the back of a promise to clean up corruption.

Corruption is nothing new in Ukraine, and Zelenskyy has made inroads to clean up politics. This latest episode could be one that makes or breaks the wartime president.

Some observers believe the very fact the scandal even came to light is an indication that Zelenskyy has helped turn things around and that the country is slowly moving in the right direction. Oleksandr Abakumov, the head of NABU's investigating team, acknowledged his colleagues had "faced a lot of obstacles" pursuing an earlier case of corruption known as the Mindich case. "This isn't a story about corruption in Ukraine. It's about how the country is struggling with corruption, fighting with corruption." [Guardian]

Zelenkyy's biggest decision is whether he can step up to the plate and sack his right-hand man. Zelenskyy's chief of staff has amassed a level of power rarely seen in modern Ukraine. He is unelected and lacks popular support. This latest episode in Ukrainian politics could now be the final straw.

"We have to deal with him, he's Zelenskyy's man," a senior European official told the Kyiv Independent. "We don't have a choice."

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Starmer’s future in question as political storm rages

2025-11-13T15:15:00.000+00:00

It all looks like a script from a political soap opera as the country heads to a nightmare budget before Christmas. On Thursday 13th November figures were published indicating growth had fallen to 0.1%, down from 0.3% in the previous quarter.

That all comes on the back of a nightmare two weeks in which the new Deputy PM and Justice Secretary had to deflect awkward criticism after it was revealed a convicted asylum seeker was mistakenly released from prison, only for an Algerian sex offender who was due for deportation, to also be accidentally released, just one of more than 90 prisoners accidentally released over seven months [Sky News]. Of course much of the problem was an inherited one, it wasn't a good look.

And this all on the back of a series of resignations, sacking and political manoeuvrings in the corridors of power.

Only last month a tabloid furore was building against Rachel Reeves after accusations of hypocrisy concerning her having failed to apply for a licence from her local council before letting out her south London home. On the eve of Halloween the prime minister declared the matter closed having accepted an apology from the chancellor who had said she had not known a licence was required [Guardian].

Emails then emerged showing that the letting agent for the property had told her husband that a licence would be necessary [BBC].

One email also purported to indicate that the agent would apply for a licence on behalf of the client. Within a day the letting agent which rented out Chancellor Rachel Reeves' family home apologised for an "oversight" which led to a failure to obtain the correct licence.

Gareth Martin, owner of Harvey & Wheeler, said the company's previous property manager had offered to apply for a "selective" rental licence on behalf of their client - but this never happened as the manager resigned before the tenancy began.

The story would no doubt have led to louder calls for her resignation but for the breaking news that Prince Andrew was to be stripped of his Royal titles and be known henceforth as Andrew Mountbatten Windsor [Guardian]. He would also, rolling media coverage informed the public, be required to move out of Windsor and slum it on King Charles III's Sandringham Estate where he would reside with the monarch bearing the cost personally. The decision came after long running criticism of Andrew's close connections with the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein. Given how long the episode had been burning, the timing of the decision to strip him of his title seemed somewhat suspicious.

Even if just coincidence, Rachel Reeves would surely have been relieved that the media spotlight had shifted from her dubious financial affairs to the former prince.

While the details of the Reeves' financial affairs concerning her flat may be explained away by an oversight or failure of communication, it is not the first time the chancellor's expenses and financial affairs have been under the spotlight.

In February 2025 the BBC News reported that Rachel Reeves had exaggerated her online CV and had been investigated over her use of expenses while working at Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) [BBC]. The reactions from Reeves and her colleagues were that the BBC reports were exaggerated and inaccurate. Of her expenses Reeves said they had been "signed off in the proper way" and "no issues were ever raised" during her time at the bank. Meanwhile the then Science Secretary Peter Kyle told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the reporting was "inaccurate".

While Reeves has so far survived media scrutiny, others have been less fortunate.

In the summer the Deputy PM Angela Rayner was photographed holidaying in Brighton, vaping on an inflatable kayak on the southern coast near Hove. It then emerged she had bought a flat in the seaside town, her third property which resulted in her being dubbed "three pads Rayner" by the tabloid media [The Sun]. The tabloid media had their claws out and the vitriol and criticism was loud and vociferous. "The hypocrisy of buying a second home when you also have use of a third home — at a time when your own department is waving a stick at second-home owners — does somewhat leave the mouth hanging open," the Sun proclaimed.

Within weeks Angela Rayner was giving a resignation speech, having admitted she underpaid stamp duty. The resignation on the 22nd October came despite repeated messages of support from her colleagues and the prime minister. On the 1st of September Keir Starmer said he was "proud" of his deputy, just days after The Daily Telegraph reported that Rayner saved £40,000 in stamp duty by not paying the higher rate reserved for additional home purchases. By the 3rd of September Rayner contacted the HMRC and referred herself for investigation by Sir Laurie Magnus, the prime minister's ethics adviser. That same day, shortly before Starmer was due to appear at Prime Minister's Questions, Rayner released a statement admitting she should have paid the higher rate of stamp duty when purchasing the Hove flat. Nonetheless the prime minister continued to stand by his deputy. The following day he repeatedly refused to say if he would sack Rayner if the standards adviser concluded she broke the ministerial code [BBC].

The prevarications were moot, and the following day Rayner resigned.

Rayner's stepping down resulted in Starmer being forced to shuffle chairs and pick a new deputy. David Lammy was drawn closer to the PM and placed in position of deputy prime minister and Justice Secretary. Meanwhile he sacked a number of ministers from his cabinet and elevated others to more senior roles. Ian Murray, the Scottish Secretary, was thrown out of the Cabinet and replaced with Douglas Alexander. The decision was treated with indignation by Murray who said he was "hugely disappointed" to be cut from the Cabinet. However it was apparently more than 'dissappointment'. A close friend told the Daily Record that Murray was "very angry and is still in the dark as to why he was sacked."

Gone too was Lucy Powell, Leader of the House of Commons, who was also unimpressed about being dismissed from her post.

However in a humiliating move for Keir Starmer she managed to place herself close to the inner circle after placing herself in the deputy leadership contest against Bridget Phillipson and winning [BBC].

Despite having secured a senior position Powell was not brought back into the Cabinet.

Political pundits have suggested that the PM might 'feel some unease about the outcome for a few different reasons' in that, according to Sky's Beth Rigby 'she has power and profile, but will remain an independent voice, free from collective cabinet responsibility [Sky News].

And so a little under three weeks after assuming her position as a political fly in the ointment, Keir Starmer was facing a wrath of stories plastered across many frontpages claiming that he might be facing a challenge to his own leadership.

Once again the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was forced to answer awkward questions in PMQs and address reports that rivals in his Labour Party were plotting to replace him as leader. It all came just two weeks before a government budget announcement that could worsen his already dire poll ratings, three weeks after Lucy Powell secured her position as deputy leader, and 10 weeks since his previous deputy leader and deputy PM Angela Rayner had resigned.

Late on Tuesday 11th November, several media outlets quoted Starmer allies as saying his job might be under immediate threat and singled out Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, as a challenger whose "ambition" was being viewed with "particular suspicion."

Ahead of an awkward PMQs, Streeting was on the media rounds busily defending Starmer and denying any suggestion he was behind any plot to oust the prime minister. According to one Downing Street source quoted in the Daily Express, "there is a pattern of Keir's team briefing against his own people – they did it to Angela [Rayner], Lisa [Nandy], Lucy [Powell], now it's Wes's [Streeting] turn. A circular firing squad won't help the Government out of the hole we're in."

During a tense grilling on the BBC, Streeting defended the PM and denied he was behind a coup, and said people should 'calm down'

BBC Breakfast host Jon Kay launched his interrogation with a graphic description of the likely scenes inside Number 10. "It sounds like people inside Downing Street think you are a potential problem yourself because we've had this extraordinary briefing overnight to the BBC from people close to the Prime Minister who seem to think they're worried about some kind of leadership challenge in the next few weeks, and they name you as a potential threat. Wes Streeting, are you a faithful or are you a traitor?"

Streeting responded, likening the whole episode as being like a soap opera. "Someone has definitely been watching too much Celebrity Traitors in Downing Street. I think they should be watching Countryfile instead and calm down a bit. I am a Faithful, what you're seeing from a silly number 10 source overnight is probably the worst attack on the faithful since Joe Marler was banished in the final."

Another person in the spotlight is Morgan McSweeney, whose official title is Downing Street Chief of Staff. Starmer has come under intense pressure from a wide range of ministers and MPs to sack his chief of staff after No 10 was accused of an extraordinary briefing operation against the health secretary, Wes Streeting [Guardian].

But there is also a name that has failed to be mentioned in all this, that of Starmer's Cabinet Secretary, Sir Chris Wormald, appointed by the PM on the 16th December 2024, succeeding Simon Case.

Case had been in the role for the six months after Labour won the general election last year and was involved in the transition between governments but left with some questions over his stepping down, though health reasons were cited [BBC] .

Just as depicted by Humphrey in the 'fictional' political sitcom Yes, Prime Minister, the role of the Cabinet Secretary involves advising the Prime Minister, supporting the government's decision-making processes, and heading the Home Civil Service.

However, it seems clear that Starmer is either not receiving very good advice, or simply ignoring it.

From issues concerning the integrity of his cabinet members, choices concerning roles and public statements on his team, as well as policy, Starmer's leadership has been a litany of confusion, procrastination and prevarication.

This is in addition to increasing rumours concerning Starmer's personal life, details of which have been mostly hidden from the public to date.

Labour won an election on the back of a failed and failing Tory administration seen as corrupt and inept. It came in on a promise of 'Change', a single word that was emblazoned on its manifesto. In that manifesto it also gave unrealistic promises it would not raise taxes, something it is widely believed Reeves will break in her late November Budget. The manifesto also fenced itself in with promises that it would 'make Brexit work' and that Labour would not seek to rejoin the EU, the Customs Union or the Single Market, even if this were the only way out of economic oblivion.

The UK has continued to face low growth throughout 2025. The latest figures, ahead of a budget which is likely to dampen public spending yet further paints a gloomy picture for 2026 [BBC]. The EU economy in comparison was projected to experience moderate growth in 2025, with real GDP expected to increase by 1.1% in the EU and 0.9% in the euro area as a whole. Moreover EU growth is expected to rise to 1.5% in 2026. Hardly a celebration, especially given the likes of China which has seen its growth level at around 4.8% in 2025. Meanwhile, the US economy expanded an annualised 3.8% in Q2 2025, much higher than 3.3% in the second estimate, and marking the strongest performance since Q3 2023.

Whichever way one cuts it, the UK's economic picture is bleak. And yet the government has boxed itself into one corner, with promises not to forge closer ties with the EU which would undoubtedly boost the economy [Numerous economic analyses by institutions like the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the Centre for European Reform (CER), and others suggest that rejoining the EU, or even just the single market, would boost the UK economy compared to its current post-Brexit trajectory. ] Yet, at the same time the treasury department is willing to break other promises not to raise taxes in order to keep the ailing ship of HMS Britannia afloat.

And amidst all this, one is witness to a political soap opera with denials, rumours and infighting abound. The comedy and farce of it all would be hysterically funny if it weren't so serious.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Happy Halloween

2025-10-31T23:44:00.001+00:00

Happy Halloween

Windows 10 support ends but it need not be doomsday

2025-10-14T09:23:00.001+00:00

Today is the 14th October 2025, a date which marks the 'end of support' for computers running Windows 10. For the average consumer there has been a lot of disinformation and contradictory information swirling around making it difficult to decide what to do.

Updates are free for many, but even news websites are failing to publicise this.

The date has been marked as a kind of 'doomsday' for anyone running the Windows 10 operating system. Figures indicate that 40% of PCs running Windows are still using Windows 10, despite the introduction of its successor, Windows 11, in 2021.

One reason that many have not upgraded to Windows 11 is due to hardware compatibility. Many older PCs that are quite capable of running Windows 10, simply do not have enough memory of RAM to run Windows 11. Even laptops that Microsoft claims are capable of running Windows 11, are rendered almost unworkable after installing the newer operating system.

There are thus millions of computers potentially left vulnerable after Microsoft halts security updates for Windows 10 machines.

There are some caveats however. Security updates are patches applied to prevent hackers exploiting holes in the operating system. But even with such patches users still need to employ good security practices.

Good security involves not clicking on suspicious links, not downloading files from unverifiable sources and keeping anti-virus software up-to-date.

With regards to anti-virus software many people rely on Windows Defender. Some fear that the end of Windows 10 support will reduce protection from the built-in firewall. However, Windows Defender will continue to work and still offer substantial protection.

As long as users continue to employ good safety practices, as outlined above, and stay within safe spaces on the internet and not visit 'dodgy websites', then Windows 10 - even without continued support - is likely to be safe for at least the short term.

But fear will consume many users, some of whom will have already thrown their old PC into an ever growing pile of eWaste and purchased a new machine.

There is however a cheaper option, which will at least put to rest any major concerns for another year. Microsoft is offering another year of support for those who sign-up to receive them. This will ensure protection until the 13th October 2026.

There is a cost to most users however. Microsoft is charging $30 plus tax, or the redemption of 1,000 so-called reward points. [Microsoft Rewards points are a loyalty program that rewards users for engaging in activities such as searching with Bing, shopping at the Microsoft Store, and playing games on Xbox. These points can be redeemed for various rewards such as gift cards, sweepstakes entries, and donations to nonprofits.]

Many PC users will quite understandably not have heard of Microsoft Rewards and be forced to change laptops or pay up.

There is however a little publicised alternative for those in the EEA, or European Economic Area. Microsoft backed down concerning its policy to charge those in the zone after pressure from consumer groups citing EU legislation [PCMag] . Thus anyone in the EEA is able to get free updates for another year simply by going to the Windows Update page in settings and registering with a Microsoft account.

Many Windows 10 users might not have a Microsoft account, instead signing in using a 'local account', however there is a facility to create an account in order to register for the free updates.

While technically outside the EEA post-Brexit, users in the UK are still able to sign-up for free updates. This may or may not be an oversight on Microsoft's part, the reason is not entirely clear.

What is apparent is that the swirl of information surrounding the 'end of support' doomsday is muddy and confusing at best.

Indeed at the time of writing this dozens of news websites are still offering erroneous or incorrect information. The Guardian points to the free updates but incorrectly states one has to 'sync settings'. This is only true outside the EEA. GBNews also alludes to this with scaremongering headlines that users who don't take action will almost immediately suffer from cyberattacks. The BBC is less sensationalist and warns that "computers may be at risk" should users not enrol for security updates.

Moreover it correctly states that people living in the European Economic Area will get them for free by registering. For other users, to update for free, "they need to have updated to the latest version of Windows 10, have a Microsoft account and backed up their PC settings" to Microsoft's OneDrive online cloud storage service. However, even the BBC failed to notice that users in the UK, despite it not being in the EEA, can still get free updates with no strings attached.

There are an estimated 600 million PCs in the world using Windows 10. And a large proportion of these otherwise working machines will end up as landfill in the coming days.

In the EEA it is estimated that around 22% of consumers still use Windows 10 devices. In the UK the number of computers that could conceivably be consigned to the bin is in excess of 21 million.

Microsoft is acting irresponsibly by consigning otherwise working machines to landfill. But media organisations are also failing consumers. With nearly half of all PCs in the world at risk of being dumped simply because people have been scared into doing so by scaremongering by Microsoft and the media, this could be one of the single biggest environmental eWaste dumping events in recent history.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Cyberattacks & online crime grows

2025-09-26T12:10:00.001+00:00

Cyber attacks, hacking and online crime are becoming rife in recent months. Targets have been both small and large, with individuals falling to online scams at an ever increasing number while large corporates and major infrastructures also falling victim to online attacks.

Growing cyberattacks

In the past few months the retailers M&S and Co-op became victims of online attacks which cost them millions of pounds in losses. The Co-op revealed in late September that it had seen a £200m hit to its business as a result of the cyberattack that left shelves empty and severely disrupted its supply chain [BBC].

The retailer M&S was also severely hit just weeks before and while the company said the nature of the incident meant that some personal customer data had been taken, there was no evidence that it had been shared. The financial cost to the brand has yet to be revealed but there has certainly been reputational damage. The attack saw the retailer stop taking orders on its website and app for clothing and home deliveries and also paused its in-store collection service on the 25th April. Online orders eventually resumed on the 10th of June and the click and collect service resumed in early August [BBC].

No-one was safe from these online attacks. Even the prestigious upmarket store Harrods was targeted though the firm said it managed to thwart the attempted breach to its systems [BBC / Periculo].

As the holiday season ended many people at airports across Britain and parts of Europe found themselves facing delays after hackers targeted check-in and boarding systems belonging to provider Collins Aerospace. The systems were eventually brought back online but not before thousands had their travel plans disrupted. Airlines flying out of Heathrow, Brussels, and Berlin were forced to check passengers in manually on Friday 19th September with systems not back to normal until Monday [Independent / BBC].

The same cannot be said for Jaguar Land Rover which is still facing ongoing problems after a month-long shutdown of its operations following a cyberattack [BBC].

While less disruptive, there were further reports of a ransomware attack on a nursery chain on Thursday 25th September [BBC].

Hackers said they had stolen pictures, names and addresses of around 8,000 children from the Kido nursery chain and were using the highly sensitive information to demand a ransom from the company, which has 18 sites in and around London, with more in the US and India.

Arrests

There have been arrests concerning some of these attacks. On the 10th of July the UK's National Crime Agency (NCA) announced the arrest of four individuals in connection with the cyberattacks that disrupted operations at Marks & Spencer (M&S), Co-op, and Harrods earlier this year. The suspects, a 20-year-old woman from Staffordshire, two 19-year-old men (one British, one Latvian) from London and the West Midlands, and a 17-year-old British male were detained at their residences. Authorities also seized electronic devices for forensic analysis.

The arrests were said to be linked to the hacker group known as Scattered Spider, notorious for employing sophisticated social engineering tactics, SIM swapping, and phishing techniques to infiltrate organisations. In the case of M&S, the attackers deployed ransomware, leading to a six-week shutdown of online clothing sales and an estimated £300 million loss in operating profit.

There has also been an arrest concerning the cyberattack on the airlines. On Wednesday 24th September the National Crime Agency said it had arrested a man in his 40s in West Sussex as part of an investigation into the incident affecting Collins Aerospace [Guardian].

And just days before it was reported that Thalha Jubair, 19, from east London, and Owen Flowers, 18, from Walsall in the West Midlands, were arrested at their home addresses on Tuesday by the NCA and City of London Police and charged in connection with a cyberattack that resulted in months of disruption for Transport of London [TfL].

The National Crime Agency (NCA) says it believes the hack, which began on the 31st August 2024, was carried out by members of the cyber-criminal group, Scattered Spider, and caused more than £39m in damage and disruption [BBC].

Arrests have not been confined to Britain however. An African cybercrime operation in late September saw 260 arrests after Operation Contender 3.0, involving 14 countries across the continent, reigned in a large number of scammers involved in Sextortion and Romance Scams [BBC / Interpol]

That operation should prompt concerns that even individuals are as vulnerable as large corporations.

In the coming month there is a concern that Microsoft's end of support for Windows 10 will leave millions of people around the world at risk.

The end of support means that vulnerabilities and security issues identified in Windows 10 will not be patched. While users can pay Microsoft for a year of continued support, many may simply ditch otherwise perfectly good computers and upgrade to a Windows 11 machine.

The move by Microsoft has been criticised for creating a problem with so-called eWaste as well as leaving millions of Windows 10 users potentially vulnerable to malware and cyberattacks.

There is however a reprieve for those residing in EEA countries with users able to get free Windows 10 extended security updates if they log in to Windows and enroll using a Microsoft account [Windows Central / Bleeping Computer]. The European Economic Area [EEA] consists of the 27 EU member states plus three non-EU countries: Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. Britain is excluded due to its having left the EU. Another Brexit benefit!

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Was life better before the Internet

2025-09-25T17:15:00.000+00:00

There have been a number of reports in the media in the past few months concerning generation Z, amongst others, looking back nostalgically at a pre-Internet world [ProfectusMag / GWI].

Of course Gen-Z can't really look back to a world without the Internet. Neither can most millennials. In fact only those that are Generation X or older will likely have grown up without the Internet or at least remember a world without it.

But was it any better to not have access to a world of information at the touch of a button or to share one's life or thoughts with others on a plethora of social media networks.

In many ways it was and in many ways, that of course we weren't aware of, it wasn't.

Part of the recent debate concerned the posting of a video of a performance of the group MGMT on a number of social media platforms.

In an article posted on the Guardian website, and no doubt printed in the physical paper, which even fewer people will read, Isabel Brooks notes that, "Almost half of young people would prefer a world without the internet" and that, "We are haunted by the feeling that it has robbed us of something vital." [Guardian]

Brooks references a video of the song Kids being performed to a group of students at a college campus in April 2003. Students at Wesleyan University, Connecticut, dance and enjoy the song which won't be heard by a wider audience until around 2007.

The video in itself is nothing special. It's probably a VHS recording of a college event not too dissimilar from countless others that took place in the early noughties and the decades before.

However, there is a carefree innocence captured in the video. Brooks herself suggests that in a pre-social media world "people behaved in more authentic and idiosyncratic ways."

Brooks informs us that she was only four at the time the video was shot and perhaps cannot relate to the way people might well have behaved in the days before social media burst onto the scene.

In those days people were less guarded, less hung up about looks or following specific trends. The scene in that video, shot in 2003 could just as easily have been from a video I shot at art college a little over a decade before in Britain.

Kids did have fewer inhibitions. Camcorders were in their infancy and college students weren't particularly shy of being filmed. And much of what was filmed, on old VHS, Video-8 or Umatic tape, has probably been lost, though not all, here being two videos shot in the 1990s at Maidstone College of Art here and here.

In 2003 the Internet was in its infancy. Whilst some universities and colleges had a computer and Internet access, only those needing computers for work would likely own a personal laptop.

A decade or so before not even universities had Internet access. Study was through lectures, books and possibly an audio/visual presentation.

There were no emails or printers. An application to university was carried out by filling in physical forms and sending them off through the post and hoping one might receive a reply and a date for an interview.

Travel involved arriving at a station and buying a ticket for cash or maybe the writing of a cheque. There was no touch and pay, and even chip & pin did not exist beyond the cashpoint which could eat your card at a whim and leave you stranded.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s mobile telephones were only for high flying businessmen or celebrities. The actor Steve McFadden, who played Phil Mitchell in Eastenders, occasionally popped into a Maidstone pub with his massive Motorola 4800X carphone and deposit it on the bar. But for the general public a mobile phone was a pipe dream.

For generation X communication was confined to a landline or a phone box. For many students however there was not even a landline at their rented accommodation meaning the phonebox was the only means of phoning friends in order to make plans.

Without phones plans were often ad hoc, unplanned, spontaneous or simply chance events. One would head to the pub after eating in the hope that someone might be there. Or one might simply take the chance that a fellow student was in and make a journey to their house.

The disappointment of finding no-one at home, or an empty pub was commonplace, but it sometimes led to new adventures, new discoveries and the meeting of new friends.

In some respects this was akin to the Situationist practice of psychogeography which encouraged individuals to engage in a mindful exploration of their city, to aimlessly wander around and observe their environment, a practice of "dérive" or "drift," and thus discover new things.

With the advent of mobile phones, the Internet and an ever connected life, spontaneity and chance discovery was consigned to the past.

Upon leaving education most graduates will today apply for positions online or send countless emails to prospective employers. In an era where email was still in the realms of science fiction, post-grad students had to compose letters on a typewriter and with a photocopy of a CV send it off with the hope of putting one's foot through the door of a company.

Everything was snail mail. Research was fraught especially if you were focused on specialist fields. And the time between sending an application and receiving a reply might extend to weeks.

But technology was slowly improving and becoming more accessible to the general population. In 1994 Mercury One2One launched its digital mobile phone service with Orange following soon after. Early adopters were still seen as outliers. Members of the public would mutter and comment if one took a call on a bus. I clearly remember overhearing two women saying how unnecessary such devices were, as I received a call in central London on a Number 8 bus. "What's so important that people can't wait 'til they get home?" one asked rhetorically. "No, they'll never catch on," replied her friend.

Even as the millennium arrived, mobile phones were mostly in the hands of businessmen, journalists, photographers and those who tended to work away from an office.

Laptops and computers were also out of the reach of most people, seen as an unnecessary luxury. A laptop in the year 2000 cost over £1,000 and was exceedingly slow compared to the machines of today.

Access to the Internet was possible but only through dial-up at 56 kbps. There was no Google. Amazon had only been around a couple of years and as for email there were few providers. Early adopters grabbed a Hotmail address and stuck with it until forced to change to an Outlook account some 13 years later, whilst others grabbed a Gmail account when it launched in 2004. Gmail offered 1 Gb of storage when it launched which doubled to 1 Gb the following year with claims that users would never have to delete an email again. While free storage increased to 15 Gb across Gmail, Google Drive, and Google Photos by 2013, this was barely enough for many users as file sizes grew and more and more of us became reliant on cloud storage.

Facebook launched around 2004 and drew many people into their first foray of social media. In early 2000 Friends Reunited had launched to help connect old school buddies but was shuttered in 2016. Despite its best efforts it couldn't compete with giant services like Facebook.

In between time other social media platforms had made their way into the public arena, services such as Twitter. Online platforms such as YouTube were becoming popular as were blogging platforms such as Wordpress and Blogger.

As these platforms began they were mostly occupied by those who had grown up without Internet access. It would have been unlikely for someone younger than 20-years-old to join Facebook when it launched in 2004. Indeed the first inhabitants of the web were mostly younger members of Generation X and a few Millennials that were old enough, or lucky enough, to have access to a PC.

Rolling forward a little over two decades and only Generation X and a large proportion of Millennials would remember a time without the Internet. For Generation Z and beyond a world without the Internet would be as unthinkable as a Gen X individual imagining life without electricity or TV.

For Gen Z and most Millennials life has become entwined with the Internet. But while a vast cornucopia of information and knowledge may be only a click away, most young people are more engaged with social network platforms such as Snapchat, TikTok, Instagram and others. The instant hit of a jokey or viral video, spawned a generation demanding instant gratification and one that has little if any attention span.

Research conducted by Microsoft in 2015 found that the average attention span of Gen Z individuals was only about eight seconds, four seconds less than that of millennials. The study attributes this decrease to the generation's constant exposure to digital content and multiple screens [Time].

The hippies were notoriously stoned and laid back and would think nothing of listening to a concept album lasting six sides or watch a feature length avant-garde movie with little or no dialogue. Seventies kids might have buried themselves in comics and books for hours on end, while eighties youth may have spent many hours skateboarding or trying to understand BBC basic [computer programming].

But today's kids, after the instant dopamine hit of a TikTok video can't sit still for one minute. Many will spend hours doom scrolling through content that provides short-term entertainment and causes the dopamine receptors to get fried. In the long term, fried dopamine receptors lead to the shrinking of their attention spans and perhaps explains why Gen Z, specifically the younger of the group, struggle to finish movies and books.

The advent of streaming has brought about a decline in movie going. But another factor is that the age group that used to fill out the cinemas is now one that can't sit still long enough to watch a feature length movie.

Less than two weeks into the release of Mission Impossible 8 - Final Reckoning, a showing at a London cinema barely attracted a handful of patrons.

Youngsters now can often be observed watching movies on their phones at 2x the speed or flipping forward in 10 minute intervals and watching a segment before flipping forward again.

It is perhaps no wonder that ADHD (attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder) is seemingly becoming more prevalent in the young. ADHD is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterised by persistent symptoms of inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity that are excessive and pervasive, impairing in multiple contexts, and developmentally inappropriate.

These symptoms can significantly impact daily life, including school, work, and social relationships.

But while there is no evidence suggesting short form videos directly cause the condition, the cause of ADHD has yet to be established and likely involves a combination of genetic and environmental factors.

The diagnosis of ADHD has increased significantly in the last two decades with data showing a steady increase in adult ADHD prescriptions since 2013/14, doubling since 2019/20. Meanwhile in the UK, it's estimated that about 3-4% of adults have ADHD while in children, the global prevalence is around 5%

Symptoms of ADHD include impulsiveness, disorganisation, poor time management skills, difficulty focusing and restlessness. Of course these 'symptoms' could just as easily describe any teenager.

The Internet and all its associations may not have a bearing on children developing ADHD, even if it is affecting their general attention span. But herein lies another consequence of the World Wide Web, that of diagnoses and other threats.

Before the Internet people enjoyed life without the constant threats of something being bad for you or that one in two of us might die from a fatal disease.

Yes, it was well known, even in the '70s and '80s, that cigarettes weren't a health food and that it probably wasn't a good idea to drink to excess every night or consume large quantities of Coca Cola. Bicycle helmets weren't a thing and the concerns over knife crime and violence was rarely mentioned.

People of course still died from smoking related diseases. Others became involved in accidents because of alcohol. And others grew fat because they drank too much fizzy pop or gorged on 'junk' food. Cyclists were surely injured too. It certainly wasn't a blissful utopia on Britain's streets in the 1970s, '80s and '90s. But somehow the Boomers and Generation X managed to survive and enjoy themselves without being bombarded with government messages, health warnings and nannying, besides perhaps the Green Cross Man - aka David Prowse who later played Darth Vader - and who taught kids of the '70s to cross the streets safely https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xR7_Bz9fIPA

With the advent of the Internet, and particularly with the smartphone landing in people's hands, negative messages are never far away.

The depressing news headlines could almost be ignored in the days before the Internet. While Sky News began in 1989, it did not have the saturation that it does now. If you missed the 6 O'Clock News on BBC or ITV you'd have to wait 'til 10. Few people bought newspapers, and younger people in particular would be very unlikely to purchase one except for adolescent schoolboys who might buy a copy of the Sun of the Star when the page 3 busty model was still a thing. The Sun newspaper's Page 3, featuring topless models, was discontinued in January 2015 after 44 years, again in part due to the advent of the Internet which provided anyone with as much sassy content as they wanted.

By 2025 the Internet had become a swirling cesspool of pornography, depressing news content, violence, disinformation, health messages encouraging people to avoid cigarettes, alcohol, sugar, salt, fat and meat and engage in more exercise while informing them that one in two people will get cancer.

This messaging along with the other negativity that is prevalent on the Internet is itself far from healthy.

The "one in two people get cancer" statistic can be emotionally distressing, and some may view it as psychologically harmful.

While the statistic may have a basis in fact, its constant broadcast on streamed broadcasts, YouTube pre-roll ads and the like, can create a sense of impending doom or inevitability, leading to anxiety and worry about the future. In short the ad could invoke stress, which itself is known to significantly impact overall health and potentially increase cancer risk.

There's no definitive link between the advent of the internet and a rise in cancer rates. However the global incidence of early-onset cancer increased by 79% between 1990 and 2019. An obvious focus for rising cancer rates is perhaps the vicious circle of obesity, highly processed foods, and sedentary lifestyles.

While Boomers and Gen X smoked and drank, they were less sedentary. They had a morning cigarette before walking to work. Kids were more active, cycling, running and skateboarding rather than sitting in front of a screen.

Both generations were also more positive about the future. Maybe that bubble was burst in the late 1980s when Protect & Survive public information films warned of possible nuclear war, a concern not helped by the BBC drama Threads which depicted the aftermath of such an attack.

But for the most part life was simpler without the internet.

You wouldn't have seen this post of course. This has been typed in Google Docs using a laptop and posted to the Blogger platform. In the past, independent writing was only possible using a typewriter and putting together a fanzine which might be photocopied and distributed by mail or at venues.

'Fanzines' are almost legendary, but many were small print runs and often published just a few issues. Kill Your Pet Puppy, for example, is infamous, but only published six issues between 1979 and 1984 [Wikipedia].

Fanzines aren't new. In the 1970s the likes of Sniffing Glue sold as little as 50 and as many as 15,000 issues in its short 12 issue history [Wikipedia / Guardian].

Fanzines, or Zines, were originally born out of the counterculture; Dada, Fluxus, Situationist International et al. But as much as they were often political, they offered youngsters a way of promoting other ideas of culture and music. Some focused on science fiction, while others promoted civil rights. But what they represented more than anything was a DIY culture. The Internet can, and does offer some opportunity for these things, but it can all be lost in the ephemeral nature of what the internet is and has become.

A zine, a homemade cassette, a record or CD, is and was something solid, something real. A website, blog, MP3 or online video is real in one sense, but is as much phantom as it is a phenomena.

Old fanzines, books, tapes, records and films still sit on shelves and can be browsed, listened to or watched. And while their existence is fragile, online postings are even more subject to being thrown down a memory hole and eradicated from history.

A book depository or library can of course go up in flames, but one would have to destroy them all to destroy all copies of certain publications. When Geocities was shut down, all traces of millions of posts, articles and information disappeared.

The internet may be a cornucopia of knowledge and information, but it could easily disappear.

Nostalgia is probably something many have experienced before. A trip down memory lane to times that seemed simpler or better. A feeling evoked in us, while listening to a certain song, seeing a particular photograph, or watching a film we saw when we were a child.

But for a generation to be nostalgic for a past they never experienced is bizarre indeed. Maybe it is simply because life has become so complex, overwhelming and saturated that we may all be looking for a time that was simpler and stress free.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Twenty Years after 7/7

2025-07-07T10:41:00.000+00:00

Twenty years ago today London experienced its worst terror attack, an event that left 52 dead and many more injured.

On that day details that emerged were sketchy with news outlets unable to report what was occurring on the morning of the 7th of July 2005.

For those with connections with the emergency services, it was clear that something terrible had occurred as early as 9:30 am [BST], less than 40 minutes after the first blast. This blog reported that there had been a major incident having occurred in London's underground system with explosions reported in Liverpool Street, Aldgate East and Edgware Road stations soon after events began to unfold [tvnewswatch]. The three tube explosions had in fact occurred at 8:49 am within 50 seconds of each other.

At 10:00 am news outlets were reporting that the chaos reported on the London Underground was as a result of a number of 'power surge incidents'.

However, I had learned from police sources as early as 09:46 am [BST] that the incidents were due to explosions and there were multiple casualties, and that the fire brigade were outside Edgware Road underground station where a bomb was believed to have exploded. Meanwhile all underground services had been suspended. It was clear from my sources that there was an ongoing terror attack. That said, even the police on the ground were confused and details concerning the nature of the event and the number of key locations were yet to be clearly established.

Even as the reports of a bus having exploded at 09:49 [BST] emerged, police were initially under the impression that it was another explosion at the Underground Station. But at 09:53 am [BST] it was confirmed that a bus had exploded leaving multiple casualties [tvnewswatch].

By 10:20 am [BST] many news outlets had woken up to the unfolding seriousness of the incident. Sky News, ITN and the BBC were however still reporting the explosions as being caused by 'electrical surges'. The BBC had no cameras on the ground nor did the ITN news channel. Sky News were using a helicopter but were confined to an area around Aldgate East.

Meanwhile, police were in the process of blocking all routes into and out of central London.

It was only at 11:24, and as images of a wrecked bus near Edgware Road began to emerge, that the police confirmed 'multiple explosions' around London.

By 13:00 BST, the then Home Secretary Charles Clarke made a statement in the House of Commons, saying that there had been four explosions; one on a tube train between Aldgate East and Liverpool St stations, another on a bus in Woburn Place and also Russell Square, though in fact there had been only one explosion on a bus in Russell Square. A further explosion was also confirmed at Edgware Rd. The Prime Minister said the attacks were 'barbaric' and will be returning to London from the G8 summit.

In the coming hours London was effectively shut down. Workers were forced to walk long distances in order to escape the capital since the entire Underground was shut. Some mainline trains were running and traffic in and around London became gridlocked as buses and private cars conveyed people home.

The attacks came at a time when there was little or no social media. There was no Twitter. Smartphones did not exist. And even 24 hour rolling news was still in its infancy with only CNN and Sky News dominating the scene. Signs on the motorways told motorists to avoid London and to turn on the radio. Without the radio and TV people were essentially in the dark.

For many the 7/7 attacks are a distant memory. For some, they are still living with the pain or loss of loved ones [Wikipedia].

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Age checks could mark beginning of the end of online porn

2025-06-27T19:05:00.001+00:00

A new UK law will soon force those who wish to access pornography websites to verify their age with credit card checks, open banking or facial age estimation. The rules will require major pornography sites including Pornhub and Redtube to introduce "highly effective age checks" from the 25th July in the UK for the first time [BBC].

The rules, laid out in the online safety act, are an attempt to prevent children accessing pornography online. Statistics suggest that 8% of eight to 14-year-olds in the UK visited a pornography site in one month with 19% of boys aged 13 and 14 visiting such sites. Around 11% of girls the same age are said to visit pornography sites in one month.

Without parental controls, it is easy for children to access such sites. A simple internet search can return swathes of pornography, from softcore images of to gratuitous hardcore images.

Oliver Griffiths, Ofcom's group director of online safety, says, "Society has long protected youngsters from products that aren't suitable for them, from alcohol to smoking or gambling. But for too long children have been only a click away from harmful pornography online."

The Internet Watch Foundation (IWF), the UK authority for finding and removing child sexual abuse imagery from the Internet, called the announcement a "vital step" and said it welcomes platforms doing "all they can" to comply with the new rules.

"Exposure to pornography at an inappropriately early age can normalise harmful sexual behaviours, with the availability of violent pornography by children and young adults increasingly being linked to the growing rates of sexual violence against girls and young women," said Derek Ray-Hill, interim chief executive of the IWF.

There are some who believe that the legislation could push some young people towards the so-called 'dark web'. "I have cases where clients as young as 14 access the dark web," said Marcus Johnstone from PCD Solicitors which specialises in criminal defence representation for people accused of sexual offences [Sky News].

While accessing the dark web is relatively easy, it does require jumping over through a few hurdles with a need to use specialised browsers. There will be some young people attempting to seek out content on the dark web, but they will be a relative minority.

For the vast majority of under 18s, accessing content will be through a conventional browser such as Chrome, Edge, Firefox or Safari, if using a Mac.

It is unclear whether the rules will work given the enormous number of platforms offering salacious content. Pornography exists not only on major sites such as PornHub, but also blogging platforms. The likes of Blogger, Twitter, Flickr and similar sites also host dubious content.

Since the advent of the Internet, regulations concerning the making and distribution of pornography have been eroded or become meaningless.

Prior to online access a person wishing to access pornography would need to buy a magazine often from the 'top shelf' of a newsagent or go to a specialist sex or private shop. Moreover, the pictures published would be highly regulated. Those wanting hardcore porn would often be forced to seek out illegally imported magazines from parts of Europe.

Now, with just a few clicks one can access hardcore images, some of which are borderline illegal.

In this regard it is a no-brainer that efforts should be made to stop children accessing such material.

However the purveyors of this content have pushed back at the regulation. When France recently implemented similar age verification rules Aylo, the company which runs a number of pornographic websites, including Pornhub, stopped operating in the country [BBC]. Pornhub also stopped operating in a number of US states, again over the issue of checking the ages of its users [BBC]. At the last count the porn site had shut down in 17 states across the US to avoid compliance with age verification child protection laws [Twitter/X Laila Mickelwait].

The new rules in the UK legislation has also banned porn depicting strangulation in an attempt to protect women from violence. It is unclear how this will be policed or enforced.

In this regard it is perhaps time to work towards creating a black and white list of websites. Whilst some might argue that curtailing an adult's right to access pornography, there is little or no justification for some of the easily accessible hardcore imagery posted online.

Pornography is heavily censored beyond the US, the Americas and Europe with some countries imposing an almost blanket ban [Wikipedia].

There might be a case for an adult having access to the likes of Mayfair or Playboy, but the Internet has become the wild west.

Across much of Africa pornography is highly regulated or even banned altogether though in some cases does not go far enough especially with regards to child pornography. Across Asia too there are strict rules concerning pornography. The selling and distribution of pornographic material is illegal in India. In China pornography is also illegal, though it is available via the Internet where surveys reveal that more than 70% of men aged 18 to 29 are said to access pornography at some point over the course of a year. That said there is an ongoing cat and mouse game between online content providers and the authorities blocking sites and adding IP addresses to an ever increasing list of banned sites.

Even across parts of Europe there are some outliers when it comes to the restriction of access to pornography. Ukraine restricts online pornography while Belarus and Turkey ban or block the content entirely.

But with the rise of the use of VPNs which can circumvent territorial controls, blocking is becoming more problematic.

Currently most liberal democracies are concerned with younger children accessing inappropriate content. But there is also a rising concern that adults, particularly younger men, accessing extreme and violent pornography is brewing problems for the future.

Pornography has long been associated with misogyny and objectifying women. But there are clearly levels beyond which one might see content as being relatively harmless to material that could prove dangerous.

The UK age verification rules that come into force in July 2025 may be just the beginning. Over time one might well see a ban on all online pornography as countries come together to agree on blocks of sites around the globe.

This isn't as far-fetched as it might sound. China has already effectively banned most content from outside China unless placed on a 'white list' and continues to add sites deemed inappropriate — for whatever reason — to a 'black list'.

With both France and the UK, as well as some US states, now insisting upon age verification in order to access certain sites it is likely that internet blocking will soon be needed to enforce such rules should sites not comply.

In the long term such regulations might mean blocks on an entire country or region should that country not make sufficient efforts to police their online content providers.

In years to come, accessing pornography on the Internet could become a distant memory with those wanting to fulfill their carnal desires once again having to discreetly ask for a top shelf magazine before secreting it away in a brown paper bag. But at least in those days access to porn by under-18s was almost impossible, except for the few that might come across "some tacky little pamphlet in your daddy's bottom drawer," as Zappa alluded to in his '70s track 'Dirty Love'.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Israel's Operation Rising Lion hits Iran hard

2025-06-13T13:05:00.001+00:00

World leaders have urged restraint after Israel pummeled Iran in an attempt to destroy its nuclear facilities [Wikipedia]. But with apparent US backing, Israel seems set on pushing forward and neutralising any Iranian threat.

"We know that the situation is very complicated but there is no other solution than a diplomatic one," the Italian foreign minister said following the strikes. The UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer meanwhile called for "restraint" on Friday morning after Israel struck Iran overnight killing top regime officials and key nuclear scientists. British Foreign Minister David Lammy also said that any further escalation was "a serious threat to peace & stability in the region and in no one's interest."

The strikes came just days after the US had pulled back diplomats and other personnel from the region, a signal that US officials were already aware of imminent military action.

The decision to pull out personnel from the region came amid increasing concerns that nuclear talks between the US and Iran had become deadlocked.

By early Thursday evening UK time there were suggestions that an Israeli strike on nuclear facilities in Iran was imminent, though most media outlets continued to focus on the deadly plane crash in India.

As early as the 11th June there were reports indicating a military strike was imminent. The US State Department said on Wednesday that it had decided to shrink the US "footprint" in Baghdad and the United Kingdom issued a warning about "increased tensions within the region." [NYT / NYT archived] The UK also raised concerns issuing a warning of new threats to Middle East commercial shipping [UKMTO].

All this came in the midst of inflammatory comments from Iran's defense minister, General Aziz Nasirzadeh, who warned on Wednesday that in the event of a conflict following failed nuclear talks, the United States would suffer heavy losses from Iranian attacks on US bases in the Middle East.

In what was clearly a long planned operation Netanyahu launched Operation Rising Lion in the early hours of Friday 12th of June.

While the US said they were not involved militarily, it was clear that a green light was given or at least tacit approval that Israel could go ahead with its mission.

While UK government ministers would neither confirm or deny that Britain were aware of Israeli plans, the US President Donald Trump was more forthcoming, telling Fox News on Friday morning that he was aware in advance of Israel's Operation Rising Lion.

"Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb and we are hoping to get back to the negotiating table. We will see. There are several people in leadership that will not be coming back," Trump added.

Israel's operation, which involved more than 200 fighter jets, struck multiple targets, including Iran's nuclear facilities and high-ranking military leaders.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the attack as the beginning of a multi-day offensive.

In retaliation, Iran launched a swarm of more than 100 drones toward Israel, according to an Israeli military spokesperson, though all were said to have been shot down.

The dramatic escalation raised fears that the Middle East could be on the brink of a devastating new regional conflict.

"The reports of these strikes are concerning and we urge all parties to step back and reduce tensions urgently," Starmer said Friday, urging parties to show "restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy."

That prospect seemed unlikely with Netanyahu committed in his resolve to continue his military operation until Iran's ability to develop a nuclear weapon was destroyed.

The damage inflicted was significant. Several top military officials were killed in the attacks as well as a number of scientists involved in Iran's nuclear program.

Of those confirmed dead were Golami Ali Rashid, commander of Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters, General Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Iran's highest-ranking military officer, and Ali Shamkhani, an Iranian naval officer and politician who served as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran from 2013 to 2023. While they will soon be replaced, the shock to the Iranian administration will be profound.

So too will the taking out of a significant number of assets connected to Iran's nuclear ambitions as well as a number of key scientists including Fereydoun Abbasi, the former head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, a physicist who also served as president of Islamic Azad University.

John Bolton, a long time hawk in American politics was clear that military action was the only language that Iran understood.

Speaking to CNN on Friday, Bolton pointed to the fact that the "war started on October 7th 2023" and "what Israel has done is simply open a new front in that war."

This action was "far from over," he continued but it was a "good start" given Israel's actions had stifled Iran's terror surrogates and severely curtailed the country's ballistic missile manufacturing facilities.

The attacks could also result in a major destabilising of the Iranian regime, Bolton asserted. As for a continuation of talks to persuade Iran to stop its nuclear program, Bolton was adamant concerning his position. "These talks are a waste of oxygen."

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Iberian power outage should be a wake up call

2025-04-29T11:59:00.000+00:00

Electrical supplies have returned to much of Spain and Portugal after a power outage effectively sent much of the two countries back to the stone age.

According to the two major power companies, Red Eléctrica de España and Ren in Portugal, 99% of the electrical grid was back up and running early Tuesday [29th April].

The cause for the blackout has yet to be established. Ren, the Portuguese supplier, pointed to a "rare atmospheric phenomenon" while the Spanish PM said the cause was yet to be established. "This has never happened before," said Pedro Sánchez. "And what caused it is something that the experts have not yet established — but they will."

"No hypothesis has been rejected, and every possible cause is being investigated," Sánchez said during a national broadcast late Monday afternoon.

Many people would not hear that message since much of the country was without power for more than 10 hours with many not seeing power restored for up to 19 hours.

A powercut is not unusual for anyone. Local substations or electrical faults are not uncommon in many western countries. But such a widespread outage is almost unprecedented.

For those on the ground it took a while to sink in that the problem went beyond their local area.

"I was in Murcia, Spain, in the middle of a Zoom work call when plash [sic], the power went out. Well, that's not so rare," one Twitter use later posted as power was restored. It was only when he attempted to communicate with others that he realised the problem went beyond his small enclave in southeastern Spain.

Friends in Málaga some 400 km away were also affected. "But it can't have gone out everywhere in the country, right?" Javi exclaimed on his Twitter/X post.

It suddenly seemed as though he was in an episode of Black Mirror, a dystopian television series that features a futuristic world where technology backfires and targets its creators.

This wasn't the future though. This was the 21st century where everything is interconnected and wired together with electricity.

It soon dawned on Javi and millions of others across the continent that there was no electricity and that without it everyday life would soon be entirely disrupted. There were perhaps others who were suddenly reminded of the 1950s science fiction film The Day the Earth Stood Still [Twitter/X].

In the major cities passengers found themselves trapped on stationary subway trains whilst others came to a halt in elevators. The numbers of those finding themselves in such a predicament has yet to be established but it likely ran into thousands across the country. For some it could have been hours. Unable to make an emergency call as the mobile networks gradually failed, some may have been trapped for many hours.

High speed trains across the country also ground to a halt. Passengers were forced to disembark as the air conditioning in the trains failed and they sought relative comfort in the blazing spring sunshine with temperatures topping 25°C.

The Civil Guard were soon being dispatched to these stranded trains to distribute water and help rescue a number of individuals needing medical attention [Twitter/X].

Locals near to the small town of Brazatortas came to hand out water to passengers of a stranded Madrid–Seville high-speed train that had come to a halt half way along its 472 km journey [Twitter/X].

Back in the major cities motorists were feeling the impact as traffic lights failed causing chaos on the roads. "The most amazing part is that there were no major accidents," Javi said, though his vision of what was going across the country was somewhat blinkered.

There were some people posting images to social media in the first hour or so after the power outage began. But soon even the mobile networks failed leaving everyone in the dark.

Not only were people without electricity, but also water since supplies rely on electricity to pump it to people's homes.

"Mobile data started to work only sporadically, and calls began to collapse until they completely stopped working. In fact, as the hours passed, it went from 'mobile data works a bit' to 'nothing at all'," Javi wrote on a social media post.

With the mobile networks down, Internet inaccessible and TV unavailable, some reached for their radio. But in this modern world many access radio via the Internet using smart speakers.

Battery powered and wind-up radios were now hot items being bought up at supermarkets which were now being stripped of essential supplies. Within hours bottled water, canned food and toilet paper had all been emptied from stores by those fortunate to have cash after card payments went down along with ATMs.

"A whole army of doomsday preppers rushed to the supermarkets to buy toilet paper, water jugs, and dog food. Pandemic 2.0," Javi observed.

Meanwhile the sounds of sirens broke the silence as ambulances and emergency personnel responded to those trapped in lifts and stationary underground trains. Hospitals reportedly coped with back up supplies though it is probable that non-emergency procedures were cancelled or postponed.

By late afternoon many people were resigned to the fact that there was little to do other than enjoy an extended siesta, their only concern being that beer still on sale at the remaining open bars was getting warmer as the refrigerators, along with everything else, had failed.

Streets and promenades in many towns and cities were now packed with people walking, chatting about the situation, complaining about not having Internet, walking their dogs, sunbathing, and drinking beers at the bars nonstop!

Restaurants and supermarkets were now facing other challenges as they were forced to dispose of perishable items from raw fish and meat to ice cream as their refrigeration failed after backup power supplies also failed.

Those having made it home now faced issues concerning cooking their evening meal. While some reached for the bread and cheese, others improvised, attempting to cook using a number of candles in a saucepan to provide heat to a frying pan [Twitter/X].

But across the country others were stranded. Motorists found themselves unable to fill up at petrol stations since the pumps were reliant on electricity. Meanwhile electric vehicles were also caught short since car charges were also without power.

Others were meanwhile stranded at airports as flights were cancelled with many passengers forced to sleep on airport floors as hotels were overwhelmed with an influx of people. The situation was compounded as they could only accept cash and were forced to turn people away.

By early evening power had been restored to around a fifth of the country. But for many people were still without electricity and were reliant on candles for lighting.

In the morning, power had been restored to most people across both Portugal and Spain, though for some charging their electric vehicle or boiling a kettle for their morning brew was still proving difficult with some resorting once again to candlepower to get their caffeine fix.

For a few who lived through the 28th April blackout it was a novelty, the biggest frustration being expressed by some was their inability to access the Internet.

Others however found themselves in far more difficult or even life threatening situations. It could of course have been much worse.

Those stranded after high-speed trains came to a halt were fortunate to be provided water by emergency services and local residents. But should this have been at the height of summer when temperatures in Spain and Portugal reach up to 40°C, there could well have been fatalities.

As to the cause many have speculated - especially on social media - that the outage was caused by a cyberattack. While the national cybersecurity institute was investigating the possibility of a cyberattack, António Costa, the European Council president and a former Portuguese prime minister, said there were "no indications of any cyberattack" whilst Spain's Teresa Ribera, a European Commission vice-president, said there was no evidence the incident was deliberate [Guardian].

Other suggestions, much touted by media outlets opposed to the so-called Net-Zero agenda, have alluded to the outage being caused by heavy reliance on solar and wind farms [Daily Telegraph].

The outage was initially attributed, by the Portuguese operator REN, to a rare atmospheric phenomenon called "induced atmospheric vibration". This phenomenon, caused by extreme temperature variations, led to anomalous oscillations in very high-voltage lines, potentially disrupting the synchronisation of the interconnected power grids.

The actual reason may not be known for some time. But the outage does raise alarm bells for all of us. Only a few weeks ago the European Commission was accused by the far-right of sowing fear, after its presentation of the resilience kit which aims to provide self-sufficiency in case of crisis [Euronews].

The suggested items in the emergency kit included photocopies of identification documents, cash, a radio with batteries, a charger and a phone battery, a flashlight, matches and a lighter in case of power failure, a first aid kit, water, food, and board games to pass the time.

The emergency kit was, for many, seen as a response to a potential Russian threat. However the power outage seen in Spain, Portugal, as well as parts of France and Andorra, should be a wake up call for anyone who isn't already prepped.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Power outage hits much of Spain and Portugal

2025-04-28T14:28:00.000+00:00

Major areas in Spain and Portugal are without electricity as the grid fails.

Every single part of digital life from shops, to traffic lights, hospitals, airports, phones, have all reported to be hit.

Some residents have managed to get messages out using the internet and the mobile phone system though even parts of that are said to have experienced problems.

Reports of long queues at cash points have been seen as card payments are not working in retail outlets.

The mayor of Madrid has asked people to keep their movements to a minimum, saying, "I ask all residents of Madrid to keep their movements to an absolute minimum and, if at all possible, to remain where they are. We want to keep all roads clear."

With the outage affecting subway trains many passengers are said to still be trapped, several hours after the power went out shortly after 11:00 a.m. local time in Portugal, midday in Spain.

Main railways have also been affected with trains coming to a halt and bewildered passengers seen disembarking in remote locations.

Air traffic in Spain and Portugal is also being impacted by widespread electrical outages affecting both countries though it is unclear at present whether flights are being diverted. Lisbon's main airport is shut and several flights have been cancelled according to one stranded passenger Joseph Henshaw who spoke to Sky News using a sketchy cellphone service.

There are unconfirmed reports that parts of southern France and Andorra have also been affected.

Further unconfirmed reports on social media have said that the power outage across Spain has triggered chaos in supermarkets, with some stores closing to prevent looting, and long queues forming at those still open as panicked shoppers rush to stock up on supplies.

Meanwhile the Spanish power operator has said power is unlikely to be restored for up to 10 hours with some estimates being as long as a week.

As to the cause, speculation is rife on social media that it was a cyberattack. Power companies, including Spanish power grid operator Red Electrica, have said that a rare environmental phenomenon due to extreme temperature variations caused the outage.

A heat burst, a rare environmental phenomenon characterised by sudden and extreme temperature changes, could be a potential cause for an outage. Heat bursts, which can occur during the late spring and summer, are often accompanied by strong winds and a sharp decrease in humidity, all of which could disrupt power lines or equipment. Additionally, extreme heat can lead to increased demand for electricity, potentially straining the power grid and contributing to outages.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Egg prices may hurt, but H5N1 pandemic could break the economy

2025-04-26T13:12:00.001+00:00

Trump's trade policy with tariffs will likely hit American consumers hard over the coming months as imported goods - especially from the likes of China - are hit with punitive tariffs that for some items will see prices more than double.

And while some groceries may also increase there has been a particular focus, by much of the media, on the cost of eggs with comedians egging it up with jokes about the cost of a Denver omelette.

Eggs have risen considerably in the US and stand at $6 per dozen, an almost tripling of prices from the year before. That is about £4.50 in UK prices where a dozen eggs is about £3.00 on average.

But while many have pointed to Trump's economic policies concerning the rise in the price of eggs, the cost for consumers has risen steadily over the past year mostly due to the fallout of bird flu.

Similar issues have affected UK and EU egg production though most eggs are free range across the EU.

In 2022, a substantial portion of eggs produced in the UK were from free-range systems, accounting for 65% of the total. While barn systems made up 7%, and battery cages produced 28%. In the EU, a significant shift towards cage-free systems is underway, with a goal of phasing out all cage systems by 2025.

In the US only 40% of hens used for eggs in the US are now cage-free. The vast majority of avian flu outbreaks have been on factory farms where hundreds of thousands or sometimes millions of egg-laying hens are caged in close proximity, creating ideal conditions for the rapid spread of infectious diseases.

Bird flu has wiped out more than 30 million chickens so far this year in the US. And since the virus began spreading through commercial flocks in early 2022 more than 166 million poultry have been culled.

High-pathogenicity avian influenza subtype H5N1 is now present throughout the US, and possibly beyond. More cattle infections have elevated the risk of the virus evolving the capacity to transmit between humans, potentially with high fatality rates [Independent / Science].

Research has shown that the spill over to cattle likely occurred as long ago as 2003 and has since been transmitted to various other species, including raccoons and cats as well as poultry [Gavi].

The jump to cats has brought further concerns. Most people have little contact with chickens or other birds. But in the United States, approximately 32.1% of households own at least one cat.

Anyone who has a cat will be aware that their instinct is to hunt, be it rodents or indeed birds. But while the risk of catching and transmitting bird flu to humans is small, some experts and veterinary specialists have advised keeping cats indoors.

Dr. Michael Q. Bailey, president-elect of the American Veterinary Medical Association, speaking on Fox 5 Atlanta last year was suggesting pet owners watch out for symptoms and proactively prevent their cat from contracting the disease by keeping them inside, avoid feeding them raw meat and unpasteurised milk products.

But what's all this got to do with the price of eggs?

Simply put, the culling of chickens and the cost of dealing with the disease has hit the cost of production as well as creating a shortage of eggs.

That in turn has caused the price to increase. Bird flu outbreaks have significantly impacted egg prices in the UK and the US, leading to a surge in costs for consumers. In the UK, some egg prices have risen by as much as 20%. In the US, the average price for a dozen eggs reached $5 in January 2025, a 53% increase from 2024, with the USDA anticipating further price increases [Guardian].

But the real threat is not a hit to people's finances and the threat to farming, but the risk to human health.

So far 70 human cases have been confirmed in the US. One person has died and another three have required hospital treatment. Almost 1,000 cattle herds have been infected, and the virus has been detected in poultry in almost every single US territory.

The alarm bells may not be ringing quite yet. But having just emerged from a deadly pandemic that killed more than 7 million people and devastated the global economy, the world should already be preparing for the possibility that H5N1 could become the next pandemic [CEPI].

"Pandemic preparedness initiatives should be urgently resourced and implemented," CEPI's Executive Director for Preparedness and Response Dr Nicole Lurie and six other experts said of the bird flu virus. "Enhancing readiness now can save lives and reduce societal and economic disruption if H5N1 or another outbreak becomes a pandemic."

If H5N1 does mutate into a deadly strain, the cost of a dozen eggs will be the last thing on people's minds [Morning Star].

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Meloni achieves little in naive attempt to sway Trump

2025-04-18T11:00:00.000+00:00

Meloni's meeting with Trump triggered varied responses. The Spectator suggested her mission to "make the West great again" would infuriate Macron. Sky News meanwhile pointed to her playing the 'role of political peacekeeper'. However, while many news outlets attempted to elevate her visit to one of diplomacy and soothing words in order to win over the US president, Le Monde noted that she ended up without anything to show for her visit.

During the meeting Meloni offered Trump a visit to Rome, though there wasn't a sweetener with the meeting of a monarch which the UK PM Starmer attempted a few weeks previously. Italy is no longer a monarchy and it wasn't perhaps the best idea to suggest a meeting with the ailing pope.

The announcement of the visit to Italy was by way of an attempt to kick start negotiations with the EU and come to a deal in order to mitigate US tariffs. The invite did not spark Trump's enthusiasm, nor did he even begin to confirm the trip.

There was some sense of comradery with Giorgia Meloni being warmly welcomed by Trump who called her a "great prime minister" and said she had "taken Europe by storm".

Some cynical observers might suggest this was more about her being a woman and Trump was showing his misogynistic colours as he fawned over the 48 year old blonde as she arrived at the White House in a dazzling white trouser suit.

There was some awkward body language on display however. Meloni sat cross-legged throughout the meeting, her hand folded gripping a pen with a notepad on her lap. At times her foot folded behind her grounded leg pointing to even more awkwardness or defensiveness as Trump watched her intently all the while.

There were further awkward moments. After Trump suggested they take questions from reporters Meloni practically leapt from her chair in shock as journalists threw a barrage of demands at the pair, the cacophony overwhelming the Italian PM. Briefly thrown back into her chair, her eyes wide open like a rabbit caught in the headlights of a car on a dark country road, Meloni composed herself. But further uncomfortable moments were to come.

When an Italian journalist insisted on asking Meloni a question in her native Italian she looked disgusted. Reluctantly she answered in Italian, her features relaxing slightly as she embarked on an extended discourse. Her body language betrayed her as she lifted both feet off the ground, one crossed leg folding behind the other once again. As she finished and an American journalist tried to ask another question, Trump interjected. "No, wait, I want to hear what you said," the president insisted.

Meloni's female interpreter, sitting nearby, revealed. "Prime Minister Meloni was asked … what she thinks about the fact that President Trump holds Zelenskyy responsible for the war in Ukraine."

Sensing the moment could have worsened, Meloni intervened in a moment of damage limitation and reinterpreted her own answer in Italian, steering her comments towards her vow to in raising Italy's contributions to NATO.

Trump, reading between the lines concerning her response, attempted to defend his position concerning Zelenskyy. "I don't hold Zelenskyy responsible," he insisted, a full retreat from his previous false accusations that Ukraine started the war [BBC]. "But I'm not exactly thrilled with the fact that that war started. I'm not happy with anybody involved."

Meloni may have visited Washington DC with good intent to kick start negotiation with the EU and to temper the fallout of Trump's trade war. But there is clearly a sense of naivety if she, or any other leader, believes they can tame the savage beast that is Donald J. Trump and his pack of loyal doberman pinschers.

With his launch of his Trade War there is clearly a shift in geopolitics. Trump's flip-flopping concerning tariffs has created uncertainty in financial markets. His stance on Gaza and the possibility of building a Mediterranean resort has caused consternation in the Middle East. And then there's the president's attempt to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. He has been accused of aligning himself too closely with Russia's Vladimir Putin and appeasing his demands in order to bring about a ceasefire. Meanwhile his bullying of Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy whilst trying to force him to sign over mineral rights has been likened to Hitler's forcing of the Czech leader Hacha to hand over his country to the Reich in 1939 [Dominic Grieve Twitter/X].

There is no certainty in this new world order. While the world beyond the American borders may want to calm the savage beast, it is probably best just to look beyond the US, as China appears to be doing. Europe has already been shocked into creating a so-called coalition of the willing to ward off the Russian threat and help defend Ukraine as the US shows signs of withdrawal.

And so too with trade. Europe, and the rest of the world need to focus on trade partners outside of the US and leave Trump’s America withdraw into its own borders if that’s what he has planned or wishes to do.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Trump blinks as China ups the stakes

2025-04-10T13:35:00.001+00:00

The US president paused his 'reciprocal tariffs' reducing them across the board to 10% except for China after a week of turmoil in global markets wiped trillions off the value of shares. He said he would however continue to maintain punitive tariffs on China which he raised to 125% after Beijing had earlier raised its tariff on US imports to 84%. But can Trump win this trade war which has been likened to a high stakes game of poker in which he may not hold all the cards?

Trump's stated aim in his trade war and widespread tariffs is to reduce the US deficit with other trading partners and bring manufacturing back to the United States. But this cannot be achieved in the short term.

The US is reliant on imports from around the globe, not only in terms of food and goods but also the raw materials with which it relies upon to build products in the US. There are countless examples, but some key imports include rubber, steel, metal and other raw materials. It is almost totally reliant upon other countries for rubber. In 2024, the United States imported $1.68Bn of rubber, being the 269th most imported product. Its top suppliers include China, Canada, Mexico, Korea, Rep. and Thailand, all of which have been hit with high tariffs.

Likewise the United States is also a significant importer of steel and aluminium. Canada, Brazil, and Mexico are its top suppliers of steel while it relies upon other countries for its much needed aluminium. Around half of all aluminum used in the US is imported, with the vast majority coming from its neighbour Canada.

The list is virtually endless and whichever way one looks at it the US manufacturing industry as it stands is reliant upon foreign imports.

The other overlooked factor is the cost of the US workforce. While some globalists will point to the iniquity of wages paid to workers in China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and India, the fact is that should the products they supply be made in the US the cost of wages would likely make such products cost prohibitive. An Apple iPhone currently costs anywhere between "600 and a little over $1000. With the 125% tariffs placed on Chinese imports this will double. But should that same iPhone be made in the US, with current wage structures and other factors the cost could be over $3500 according to some reports [CBS].

Wedbush Securities tech analyst Dan Ives points to many things that the Trump administration appears to overlook, even putting aside the time it would take for the likes of Apple to relocate to the United States.

"Saying we can just make this in the USA is a statement that incredibly understates the complexity of the Asia supply chain and the way electronics, chips, semi fabs, hardware, smartphones, etc. are made for US consumers over the last 30 years," he said.

While the US produces rubber, primarily synthetic rubber, with about 920,000 tonnes produced annually, the country imports almost all its natural rubber. Both types are integral to tyre manufacture so the US car manufacturing industry is reliant on foreign supplies.

Trump's war on China could have a number of effects. There is a risk that if products were unable to enter the US, Chinese firms could seek to "dump" them abroad. While that could be beneficial for some consumers, it could also undercut producers in some countries and threaten jobs and wages.

However, this might be too simplistic. China's exports to the US account for only 2.9% of the country's GDP. This is significant in cash terms but it would be a loss that China could easily absorb should it stop supplying the United States altogether.

Trump, through his punitive tariffs may intend to force China to kowtow to his will. But it risks irreversibly damaging the US economy.

Trump paused his tariffs as it was observed that US treasury bonds were being sold off. China holds at least a fifth of US debt and it is speculated that China was playing a trump card by selling off some of its holdings. Economists have long thought that China cannot afford to do this since it would damage its own economic standing. However China has been building its reserves in gold for a significant period and may be willing to weaponize its US treasury holdings.

Should China unilaterally stop exporting to the US, this too would cripple the economy. Retail shelves in the US would likely be empty inside 6 weeks, and the impact on the US economy would be debilitating. China dominates the global rare earth supply chain and without them the US chip industry would collapse. The US military, along with various other sectors, is highly dependent on rare earth elements for critical technologies, and China's dominance in their production and processing creates a significant vulnerability for the US.

Another key import is that of pharmaceutics. China exports many active pharmaceutical ingredients for America's drug industry in terms of key medicines China supplies 95% of US imports of ibuprofen, 70% of acetaminophen, and 40-45% of penicillin. The migraine experienced by some Wall Street traders over the last week may become a bigger headache if there isn't a painkiller or prophylactic.

Across Europe the main indices have seen significant losses over the last month with the FTSE down 7%, the CAC40 down 10% and the Dax down 8.9%. The US indices rose on the back of Trump's tariff pause but have yet to regain what they lost in the last week and into Thursday's open showed further losses. Both of China's main indices have seen some drops but they have remained relatively stable throughout Trump's trade war on the world.

Trump may on the surface appear to be the strong man in the room as he increases the stakes by placing a 125% tariff on Chinese imports, but China is in it for the long game and may have many more cards to play.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Trump trade war escalates as China says it will fight

2025-04-08T20:11:00.001+00:00

Trump's trade war has rocked global markets wiping trillions of dollars off the value of companies. From Wall Street to the Japanese stock market, there was nowhere unaffected after the US president slapped tariffs on nearly every country around the world.

Trump's claim is that his tariffs are a way of bringing industry back to the United States and to Make America Wealthy Again. But his sledgehammer approach with apparently random targeting has left many outside his circle bewildered and confused, as well as panicked.

Trump's tariffs ranged from a flat rate of 10% up to 50% with no particular logic as per its targeting [BBC]. The UK, a country with a supposed 'special relationship', with America was hit with a 10% tariff along with the likes of Brazil, Argentina, Australia and Ukraine. Most of those hit with 10% tariffs had a less than 1% share of US imports, though there were some exceptions with Brazil, Singapore and the UK all providing a little more than 1%. However there were some countries in the bracket of sending small amounts of exports and yet were hit with punitive tariffs. Angola and Algeria were hit with tariffs of some 30% despite providing less that 1% of US imports while Vietnam was hit with 46% tariffs while sending around 4.2% of American imports, primarily computers, electrical products, machinery, apparel and footwear. Bizarrely the Falkland Islands, a British overseas territory, was itself hit with a separate 42% tariff despite sending only around $27.4m [£21.2m] of goods to the US per year, as of 2023, mostly non-fillet frozen fish. In contrast, the Observatory of Economic Complexity [OEC] said the US exported $329,000 (£255,000) of goods to the Falklands.

The islanders were surprised, shocked, and angry to be placed in Trump's "worst offenders" list. With a population of about 3,600 people, the Falkland Islands has little room to manoeuvre. There has been little coverage concerning one of Britain's territories being slapped with such punitive tariffs with the UK prime minister conveniently ignoring the issue while talking of a calm and pragmatic approach to Trump's trade war on the world.

There have been some lone voices with the Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey urging the prime minister Sir Keir Starmer to urgently meet Falklands Governor Alison Blake to discuss the impact of the tariffs. Describing it as an "outrageous act of aggression", Sir Ed said that "Trump's trade war could be the biggest threat facing the Falklanders since Argentina's invasion." [BBC]

Such apparent random and arbitrary attacks could be potentially explained by so-called trade deficits, in that some places buy less from the US than is sent to the United States. But this does not explain why two uninhabited territories were hit with 10% tariffs.

There was much made of a 10% tariff levied at the Heard and McDonald Islands, an overseas territory belonging to Australia. The tiny group of islands in the Antarctic are home only to penguins and a few other animals and exports nothing. And also on the list were the Svalbard and Jan Mayen islands which belong to Norway. Despite having virtually no economy the islands were slapped with a 10% tariff while Norway was levied a 15% tariff.

Meanwhile the French territories of Guadeloupe and Martinique in the Caribbean, French Guiana in South America and the islands of Mayotte, in the Indian Ocean were singled out for 10% tariffs while France itself, under the umbrella of the EU, faces a 20% tariff. Réunion island, another French territory, faces tariffs of 37% [Politico].

The disproportionate and apparently random list has puzzled economists and commentators. Why was an uninhabited island slapped with 10% tariffs? Why the disparity of tariffs on overseas territories owned by Britain and France and the mainland?

It's almost as though the numbers and countries were plucked out of a hat. Indeed there have even been suggestions the plan was drawn up with the help of AI [Guardian / The Verge / Newsweek]. This has been denied by the US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick however [CBS].

Soon after the tariffs were announced the White House published a formula with which it had calculated its sums [Newsweek / USTR / BBC / YouTube].

Even if actual economists were working out the levies on paper, many were critical of the methodology and claimed it did not make sense [AEI].

Trade deficits with a given country are not determined only by tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, but also by international capital flows, supply chains, comparative advantage, geography amongst other things. It is all very well to suggest the EU take more US cars or other countries or territories take more American goods, but it may not be practical or financially viable for such places.

The EU and the UK don't buy American cars because they don't like such vehicles. Whilst there are safety rules sometimes prohibiting certain SUVs and large trucks on European roads, it is more the practical aspect that dissuades the consumer.

Many American vehicles are simply not economical enough and with fuel prices significantly higher in Europe it is not cost effective for people to buy such vehicles. Moreover many US vehicles are too big for European roads.

But is the trade war really about raising revenue as much as a policy of isolationism? According to Professor James Angel, who specialises in the market structure and regulation of global financial markets, Trump's trade war is driven by "extreme isolationists" that are "trashing 75 years of US policy".

Trump has publicly said he wants to clip the wings of China, as well as the EU who he has claimed was specifically "formed in order to screw the United States" [Sky News].

Of China he has particularly set his sights and taken aim with a series of tariffs which have levied 54% on all goods arriving on American shores.

But while the UK PM is resistant to retaliation and the EU is already attempting to negotiate with the Trump administration along with up to 70 other countries, China is not standing by idly.

China reacted to the compound tariffs with a retaliatory tariff of 34% having held emergency discussions on Friday 4th April despite it being a national holiday.

Trump was not amused and responded via social media post saying he would "impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th," if China did not pull back [Truth Social]. But instead of pulling back China responded with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson saying China would "fight to the end".

"The US threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake, China will never accept this," the spokesperson added [Xinhua / Axios], just hours before a 104% tariff was imposed on Chinese imports.

However the war of words could escalate into more than just a global recession as Goldman Sachs and others have already predicted.

There are concerns that China could escalate matters significantly. As of January 2025, China held approximately $760.8 billion in US Treasury securities, making it a significant foreign holder of US debt. In fact it is believed China may hold even more than this despite having been in a process of selling off its treasuries and building up its reserves of gold.

Should China opt to dump this government debt, the blow to the US would be seismic. Such a sell off would also hit global markets [Yahoo].

Many economists believe that China would be unlikely to make such a move since such a sell off could also hurt China. However with China having become less reliant on the dollar and built its gold reserves, whilst reinforcing its ties with BRICs and south-east Asian partners. China may feel emboldened enough to hit back hard [YouTube].

The trade war Trump has started has become a high stakes game of poker. It remains unclear who really holds the cards, but it is well known that China often keeps its cards close to its chest. In such a game however, the whole world may well get burned.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

USA on the road to a fascist state

2025-04-01T18:26:00.000+00:00

The 47th President of the United States has said "there are methods" for seeking a third term in White House and added that he wasn't joking during an interview with NBC aired on Sunday 30th March. His bold assertion came after just 70 days in office.

If it wasn't clear to anybody by now that Trump has all but created an American Fascist state then they are surely delusionary.

First 70 days

In the 70 days in office Trump has ruled by diktat, signing countless executive orders that have overwhelmed the judiciary. When judges have attempted to countermand his orders Trump has simply ignored them and steamrollered ahead, ignoring the judges and the constitution. One particular case in point was when more than 200 Venezuelan individuals were deported in shackles to a supermax prison in El Salvador

In other high profile cases, members of ICE [The US Immigration & Customs Enforcement agency] have grabbed individuals and summarily arrested them without charge and incarcerated them at detention centres. The first high profile case was when US Immigration authorities arrested Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil amid President Trump's crackdown on pro-Palestinian campus activism. Then on the 25th March ICE arrested a Tufts University doctoral student who co-authored an op-ed supporting Palestine. Rümeysa Öztürk was taken from the street by masked, plainclothes officers in a Boston-area suburb before being bundled into an unmarked car and disappeared. Her lawyers were unable to find her for many hours until she finally surfaced at a detention centre in Louisiana, some 2,500 km away.

For some it might be brushed away as radicals and criminals being rounded up. But for others, even for those not necessarily sympathetic to the political cause of Khalil and Öztürk, it is disquieting.

The clampdown of supposed dissent and the rounding up of 'illegal immigrants' has prompted many to recollect Martin Niemöller's infamous quote.

Martin Niemöller was a German theologian and Lutheran pastor. He is known for his opposition to the Nazi regime during the late 1930s. But he is best remembered for his quote made following the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

"First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."

While Trump's targets for deportation and incarceration have differed, Niemöller's statement made in the mid-1940s has brought back uncomfortable memories from the past.

It has often been said that while history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes.

Echoes from the past

Trump's second term in office and his consolidation of power has greatly concerned many for the strong similarities of Hitler's rise to power.

On the face of it, this might seem like an exaggeration and hyperbole. But there are a great many similarities as well as differences.

Hitler's battle with the judicial system and his being jailed arguably helped him into power as his incarceration was seen by some at the time as being a witch hunt. Having failed in taking power by force, Hitler chose the ballot box to secure his grip on Germany.

Similarly, Trump failed to overturn an election with an insurrection - known simply as January 6th - and faced multiple charges which he capitalised upon by claiming it was a witch hunt.

Both would-be dictators came to power on the ticket of promising to make their respective countries great once more. The mantra of Make America Great Again is little different from what Hitler, and other fascist leaders such as Mussolini and Austria's Engelbert Dollfuss attempted to sell to their people in the 1930s.

It is all too simplistic, of course, to make direct comparisons with the likes of Hitler. But fascism comes in many guises. Fascism does not necessarily come with neat uniforms, jackboots and swastikas. Dollfuss was a fascist, but most often wore a suit. Mussolini's attire was somewhat militaristic but less extreme than the imagery the Nazis employed. Politically too, facism can take different forms. Hitler's fascism was on one extreme level while Austria's Engelbert Dollfuss' fascistic rule was liberal by comparison. Indeed, pressured by Hitler to allow his country to be annexed, Dollfuss was for a time even protected and supported by Italy's Mussollini.

Where fascism is mostly grounded is in its focus on 'the leader'. It might even become a cult of personality as seen with China's Mao Zedong or in North Korea with its dynasty of leaders; Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un.

Trump has already built around himself a cult of followers under the slogan of MAGA. Meanwhile he has repeatedly expressed his expansionist dreams of 'taking back' the Panama Canal, annexing Canada - making it the 51st state - and Greenland with claims it is necessary to protect the security of America.

Peacemaker

Trump meanwhile has proclaimed himself to be the peacemaker with his attempt to broker a 'peace deal' and halt the Russia-Ukraine war. Yet critics have said Trump's real motive is not so much a lasting peace than to be awarded a Nobel peace prize.

His attempts to secure a ceasefire and a peace deal has been criticised for appeasing Vladimir Putin while bullying Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling him a dictator and later at a White House meeting on Friday 28th February 2025, verbally assaulting the beleaguered wartime leader.

That meeting has been likened to an event some 86 years ago when on the evening of the 14th March 1939, Hitler had summoned President Hácha to the Reich Chancellery in Berlin. Hitler had deliberately kept him waiting for hours, while Hitler watched a film. A clear attempt to belittle him. Finally, at 1:30 a.m., on the 15th March 1939, Hitler saw the President. He told Hácha that as they were speaking, the German army was about to invade Czechoslovakia.

In an ultimatum Hitler then gave the Czech President two options: cooperate with Germany, in which case the "entry of German troops would take place in a tolerable manner" and "permit Czechoslovakia a generous life of her own, autonomy and a degree of national freedom..." or face a scenario in which "resistance would be broken by force of arms, using all means."

The German ministers [Göring and Ribbentrop] were pitiless. They literally hunted Dr. Hácha and M. Chvalkovsky around the table on which the documents were lying, thrusting them continually before them, pushing pens into their hands, incessantly repeating that if they continued in their refusal, half of Prague would lie in ruins from bombing within two hours, and that this would be only the beginning. Hundreds of bombers were waiting for the order to take off, and they would receive that order at six in the morning if the signatures were not forthcoming.

While Trump and Vance did not chase Zelenskyy around the Oval office insisting he sign away his country, the public haranguing of the Ukrainian president had strong echoes of the past.

"You got to be more thankful, because let me tell you, you don't have the cards. With us, you have the cards, but without us, you don't have any cards," Trump told Zelenskyy, after a bitter war of words where the vice president J.D.Vance also chimed in to suggest he was ungrateful and hadn't thanked the administration enough for their help.

Trump also accused Zelenskyy of risking millions of lives and risking WWIII in his pushing back of Trump's proposals and his demand for security guarantees..

Following the 1939 meeting Hácha reportedly had a heart attack and eventually signed the documents thrust at him, thus handing over Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany.

Zelenskyy has yet to concede to Trump's and Putin's pressure but the parallels are, nonetheless, stark.

Europe has since come together in solidarity, saying they stand with Zelenskyy and Ukraine. But there is growing unease as Trump's allegiance to Putin seems to increase.

Talks have continued since that fraught meeting, but a ceasefire remains elusive. And for his part, Trump is now reportedly said to be losing patience with the Russian leader. Speaking to NBC the US president said he was "pissed off" with Vladimir Putin over his approach to a ceasefire in Ukraine and threatened to levy tariffs on Moscow's oil exports if the Russian leader does not agree to a truce within a month. Meanwhile Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the minerals deal being pushed at him is being continually changed with the US now seeking rights to mine gas and oil reserves, while still avoiding any mention of security guarantees.

Tariffs and sabre rattling

With regards the economy, Trump has shocked the world with his widespread tariffs. Particular targets thus far have been Canada, Mexico and China. However, he plans to roll out more far reaching tariffs on Europe and other countries in the coming days and weeks. His policy of tariffs allows Trump to assert his economic power without seeking approval from Congress, another aspect by which the president has secured autocratic power.

The tariffs have rocked markets and political establishments around the globe. Some nations have kow towed to Trumpian demands while others have sought to negotiate with him in order to soften the blow to their export market. Others, such as Canada, China and the EU as a whole have threatened reciprocal tariffs.

It is not entirely clear what Trump's motive and end game is. Tariffs applied to foreign nations, while potentially hurting said countries, also hurt the US consumer. A 25% tariff on European cars does not mean the EU pays more. It means that the importer has to pay the US government the extra 25% which ultimately will be passed to the consumer. Thus a $20,000 car from the EU will suddenly cost the US customer $25,000. The incentive is to get EU car manufacturers to build in the US. However, this can't happen overnight. The other motive is to force more factories to manufacture at home and get Americans to buy products Made in America. This argument falls down, in that many of the raw materials or parts needed to make such products are imported from abroad, and on which Trump has already placed punitive tariffs.

There have been suggestions that members of his own administration are capitalising on the volatility by shorting the markets. The suggestion has been rebutted by the White House. When White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt was asked,"You're sure nobody here at the White House shorted the Dow?" she responded by saying "No, I don't think so."

Consolidation of Power

But what of Trump's longer term plans? Perhaps one of the best ways to answer this would be to point to Project 2025, a political initiative to reshape the federal government of the United States and consolidate executive power in favour of right-wing policies.

Dismissed during the 2024 campaign by Trump himself, as something he was not familiar with, Project 2025 has been key to Trump's game plan.

In particular the project calls for merit-based federal civil service workers to be replaced by people loyal to Trump and to take partisan control of key government agencies, including the Department of Justice [DOJ], Federal Bureau of Investigation [FBI], Department of Commerce [DOC], and Federal Trade Commission [FTC].

With respect to this Trump has placed Elon Musk in charge, and who has laid off thousands of government employees under the umbrella Department Of Government Efficiency [DOGE].

The project has also laid out plans for other agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security [DHS] and the Department of Education [ED], to be dismantled or abolished.

In this regard Trump has already signed an executive order aimed at the dismantling of the Department of Education. In addition the Trump administration has shut down three watchdog agencies in the Department of Homeland Security.

All of this has occurred without congressional oversight in as much as most decisions thus far have been made by presidential decree in the form of executive orders.

Criminalising porn & targeting LGBTQ+

One key element of Project 2025 is its proposal to criminalise pornography. To date no overt plans have been enacted upon. However, within Trump's base and amongst ultra-conservative Republicans there would likely be strong support.

While the proposals are certainly targeted towards pornography in general, the Project 2025 proposal is even more sweeping, indicating that its anti-porn language may be covering for a broader crusade against LGBTQ rights.

Within the document it states, "Pornography, manifested today in the omnipresent propagation of transgender ideology and sexualization of children, for instance, is not a political Gordian knot inextricably binding up disparate claims about free speech, property rights, sexual liberation, and child welfare. It has no claim to First Amendment protection. Its purveyors are child predators and misogynistic exploiters of women. Their product is as addictive as any illicit drug and as psychologically destructive as any crime. Pornography should be outlawed. The people who produce and distribute it should be imprisoned. Educators and public librarians who purvey it should be classed as registered sex offenders. And telecommunications and technology firms that facilitate its spread should be shuttered."

While some of this may seem incongruous given Trump's own misogynistic behaviour, it seems likely that he will nonetheless follow through on such proposals.

Already Trump has removed some legal protections against anti-LGBT discrimination and has ended diversity, equity, and inclusion [DEI] programs across government departments which has prompted many large conglomerates to follow suit.

Immigrants and dissidents

One of Trump's most outspoken policies has been one of tackling 'illegal immigration'. Project 2025 recommends the arrest, detention, and mass deportation of illegal immigrants. And within days of the inauguration ICE had been deployed to carry out these objectives. The arrests were carried out without warning making media coverage difficult, and their detention has been veiled in secrecy. Some have been sent to already established detention centres while others have been swiftly deported, ignoring court orders and pushback by politicians and human rights groups. Trump has even looked into the possibility of reopening Guantanamo Bay to house immigrants ahead of their repatriation.

So swift have some of these changes in policy been made that it has been almost impossible for the media to keep up and report on events. When Trump initially ordered that an existing migrant detention facility at the base be expanded to hold some 30,000 people there was some brief reportage across many news platforms. But as immigrants began to arrive, there was scant reporting as events were drowned out by other things the administration was doing.

In fact that has seemingly been much of the game plan in terms of rolling out Trump's plan for autocracy.

End of democracy

With information overload, courts and the judicial system overwhelmed with procedural attempts to counter unconstitutional diktats, and dissent being stifled with arrests which further distracts as media coverage focuses on comparative minutiae, Trump is consolidating his power.

Anyone suggesting Trump is attempting to establish an autocracy and bring about a form of American fascism is accused of wearing a tin-foil hat or being a conspiracy theorist. Yet it seems that to believe otherwise is delusional.

Many of the guardrails of American democracy have, in just a few short weeks, been dispensed with, eroded or ignored. Congress has been left largely impotent, given little, if any, actual legislation has passed through the body. Judges and their rulings have been ignored. And those opposing the administration, either within government or on the streets are being targeted verbally or with detention. Even those entering the United States have found themselves singled out for not having the right viewpoint.

In late March three members of the UK Subs, a punk band, were detained and returned to the UK after flying to Los Angeles for a gig, supposedly for having incorrect visas. One band member suspected it was for his "less than flattering, public comments regarding their president".

Just days before, a French scientist was returned after phone messages critical of Trump were found on his device. It is unclear whether such instances are the tip of the iceberg or an unfortunate mistake met out by overzealous immigration staff.

The detaining of pro-Palestinian activists Mahmoud Khalil and Rümeysa Öztürk may be two anomalies or just two examples of many that have gone unreported because someone was not on hand to record the arrests on their phones. Yet further examples have come to light with another pro-Palestianian activist, Momodou Taal, leaving the US having had his visa revoked. And it emerged just days ago, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that some 300 university students have had their student visas revoked due to involvement in pro-Palestinian protests.

Repeating history

In the 1930s, as Martin Niemöller alludes to, many might not have spoken out as the first inmates arrived at the likes of Dachau. When the first bus arrived at the Dachau concentration camp, located near Munich, Germany, it carried mainly communists, social democrats, dissidents and other undesirables. The incarceration of such individuals may not have created consternation amongst the general population, even if they were fully aware of the goings on at the camp, since they may well have thought these people were 'enemies of the state'. By the time it became an execution camp for gypsies, homosexuals and Jews, it was too late to protest.

The pro-Palestian cause is a divisive issue and tends to attract a greater number of younger, left leaning individuals. Thus in a twist of the words Niemöller uttered some 80 years ago; 'First they came for the pro-Palestinians, and I did not speak out—because I was not a pro-Palestinian. Then they came for the Venezuelans, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Venezuelan. Then they came for the Salvadorans, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Salvadoran. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.'

This is only the list thus far, and it is unclear how far reaching Trump's policy of detainment and expulsion will go. But there have been some dissenting voices. Most vocal have been politicians, political pundits and even comedians to the left of centre. But even some right wing commentators have weighed in, such as Joe Rogan, a Trump supporter who hosts a right leaning radio show podcast.

Speaking soon after the mass deportation of 300 Venezuelans, Rogan expressed his concern that innocent individuals were being swept up in the deportation policy. Whilst he has praised President Donald Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration he expressed horror at the news that the administration had deported a gay Venezuelan asylum-seeker along with suspected members of the Tren de Aragua gang.

"You got to get scared that people who are not criminals are getting lassoed up and deported and sent to El Salvador prisons," Rogan said. "It's horrific," he added. "It's horrific." Sending non-criminals back, Rogan says, was "bad for the cause." Or is it just getting caught?

There will be less chance of accountability as Trump seeks to erode the free press. There is already a push to revoke licences and funding for state run broadcasters. VoA, RFA and others have already been targeted and Marjorie Taylor Greene and others have made a bid to get funding pulled from PBS and NPR.

With the media forced to kowtow to Trump, and with the great leader staring down from Mount Rushmore or from a proposed $100 bill, the Trump Reich will be all but complete.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Sources: Guardian / Guardian / BBC / Reuters / BBC / Guardian / BBC / AP News / Wikipedia / NBC / Sky News / Guardian / ABC / Wikipedia / BBC / NYT / MSNBC / BBC / Yahoo / Guardian / Guardian / BBC / Daily Beast / Independent / BBC / Guardian / MSN / Independent

Threat to the West comes from more than just cyberattacks

2025-03-30T20:40:00.000+00:00

On Friday 21st March a massive fire at an electric substation forced the closure of Heathrow Airport resulting in the disruption of some 13,000 flights and affected hundreds of thousands of passengers.

There was speculation early on that the fire might have been deliberate , potentially an asymmetric attack by the Russian state coming on the back of a meeting of some 30 military leaders headed by the UK PM Sir Keir Starmer at Northwood HQ in northwest London.

However, within hours the incident was later described as not suspicious despite the coincidence of events and timing.

If, as both the London Fire Brigade and Metropolitan Police have said, the fire was an unfortunate accident that is perhaps a sigh of relief on one hand.

But for a single fire to shutdown one of the world's busiest airports, it is nonetheless concerning.

Britain's enemies will certainly be taking notes concerning how easy the country can be brought to its knees.

There was no COBRA meeting held following the unprecedented incident. Yet discussions will have likely been held behind closed doors.

UK security services are responsible for protecting the country's infrastructure as well as monitoring external attacks.

Important assets include Britain's nuclear power stations, its rail infrastructure, water distribution networks, electricity supply and transport hubs.

While the substation that went up in flames may have been an inconvenient accident, its destruction was clearly a failure on so many levels.

It is too early to say what failed and caused the fire and explosion, but such a catastrophic failure would surely point to maintenance issues.

Thus it would not be unfair to say that, given its importance to supplying a major transport hub, such facilities should be prioritised concerning their maintenance and protection.

The Ukraine war has shown the importance of the use of drones. And it would not be too far-fetched to see the UK's enemies employing drones to target important assets.

Cyber attacks are already being employed by rogue actors to shutdown computer systems.

In the last year there have been several high profile computer systems failures. Supermarkets have been hit, with Sainsbury's, Tesco and Lidl all affected. Banks were hit with an apparent cyber attack last year seeing payment systems going down and ATMs being put out of use. On the same day even Sky News was forced off the air.

The major global IT outage hit broadcasters, banks and IT companies as well as some airports.

Such outages have often been blamed on system updates rather than deliberate attacks. The July 2024 outage was blamed on an apparently untested update by CrowdStrike cyber security software. The CrowdStrike update caused computers across the globe to crash and display what's commonly referred to as the "blue screen of death."

The catastrophic failure prompted many to speculate that the IT failure was a deliberate attack.

But even if the events of July 2024 was simply a software problem, the events that day highlighted the vulnerability of not only UK infrastructure, but also computer systems around the world [Daily Mail].

The CrowdStrike incident is estimated to have cost in excess of $1 billion having affected 8.5 million Microsoft Windows devices, leading to widespread disruptions of airlines, banks, broadcasters, healthcare providers, retail payment terminals, and cash machines globally. Airlines were forced to cancel thousands of flights, supermarkets couldn't accept credit card payments, and hospitals cancelled non-urgent surgeries.

Even putting the CrowdStrike incident aside there have been dozens of actual cyberattacks, often in the form of Ransomware attacks, that have left companies unable to operate [SecureFrame].

Many incidents are reported to be software glitches or blamed on human error. But there is growing suspicion that some cyberattacks are being hidden from the general public in order to allay concerns.

When a huge cargo ship crashed into a bridge in Baltimore resulting in its collapse and closing a major port for weeks, there was widespread speculation as to the cause. Claims ranged from a cyberattack or a ship captain impaired by side effects from COVID-19 vaccines being responsible for the crash [CNN].

All evidence to date points toward a tragic accident. Yet it could just have easily been a deliberate targeting of the vessel. The grounding of the cargo ship Ever Given in the Suez canal in 2021 for just 6 days caused chaos to international shipping, forcing vessels to reroute around South Africa. The cost to the global economy of that incident was in excess of $400 million per hour! [USNI]

When two cargo ships collided in the North Sea in mid March 2025, there were concerns this might have been deliberate. Again, however this has been blamed on probable negligence [BBC / Sky News].

Many cyberattacks go unreported since they affect relatively few individuals, despite their seriousness [CM Alliance].

To suggest such incidents are deliberate cyberattacks or otherwise deliberate assaults by those that might wish to harm the West, is often dismissed as being conspiratorial.

There is growing suspicion amongst the public that the truth is being hidden. It harks to the age old line that just because you're paranoid it doesn't mean you're not being followed.

But even without the tin foil hats and speculation that we are under attack by Russian, Chinese, Iranian or terrorist hackers, the risks are nonetheless real enough.

There are certainly hackers out there wishing to do real ham to the west. But the bigger threat is likely to be more mundane.

Indeed, the Russians may not need to launch cyberattacks and drone attacks to shutdown Britain given the country's crumbling infrastructure. A concerted and deliberate attack would however push Britain to the edge.

But as seen in other outages and serious incidents in the past year or so, it is not just Britain that needs a wake up call. Europe, the US and others all need to focus not only in defending itself from deliberate attacks, but also to prevent major disasters occuring as a result of otherwise minor glitches.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Welcome to the new world order!

2025-02-28T23:29:00.001+00:00

"He's a tough negotiator. I'm not sure if I like that, but that's okay," Trump said upon introducing the UK PM Keir Starmer this week [Thursday 27th Feb].

The meeting was summed up by many as a 'success'. However, while there were some positive messages coming from both Trump and Starmer, beneath the shiny veneer it remained unclear whether Trump will prove to be a trusted friend or instead thow Britain under the bus as has been seen before so many times, not just by the Trump administration but also by other US presidents who have continually placed Britain in second place or "at the back of the queue."

What Trump does on Monday could be very different as to what he does the following day or even a week later.

Asked whether he still thought the Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was a dictator just a week after he posted a message on Truth Social lambasting the leader, Trump glibly responded by saying, "Did I say that? I can't believe I said that, Next question."

It's not clear whether it was Starmer's suggestion, or at King Charles' request, that an offer was made for a second state visit. But Starmer's pulling an envelope from his inside jacket pocket gave the impression he was pulling a rabbit from a hat, like a magician, in order to somehow gloss over Trump's lies and half truths while trying to butter up the leader of the free world.

Upon opening the invitation letter for a second state visit, Trump talked of the King as a "a great gentle man, a great, great gentleman; a beautiful man, a wonderful man," and followed by saying that he'd accept the offer.

The "very special" and "historic" offer was very much like a stunt that Del Boy, from Only Fools and Horses, might pull; offering a cheap deal on a paint job for the White House in order to secure a trade deal.

While Trump might initially be impressed with the glitz and glamour of being wined and dined with the King of England, there will be nothing lasting from such a visit other than a photo for the Trump family album.

Reporters attempted to delve into the issues that Trump has himself and put the prime minister on the spot. One asked Starmer whether the King might be concerned over Trump's assertion that Canada might become the 51st state which the PM attempted to gloss over by claiming that other discussions were positive.

"Look, we had a really good discussion, a productive discussion, a good discussion as a result of which our teams are happy to be working together on an economic deal, our teams are going to be working together on security in Ukraine," Starmer responded.

"You mention, Canada, I think you're trying to find a divide between us that doesn't exist. We're the closest of nations, and we had very good discussions today, but we didn't address Canada —" Starmer continued.

"That's enough, thank you" Trump said, waving in the direction of the press to move on to another question.

Then came a meeting with the Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy who met with the US president on Friday.

But there was none of the bromance seen between Macron and Trump on Monday or the slightly awkward but relatively upbeat meeting that the world witnessed as the UK PM met Trump on Thursday.

After a fairly cordial discussion at the start of the informal meeting at the White House it all descended into chaos as both the vice president, J D Vance, and the president, Donald Trump effectively ganged up against Zelenskyy.

Trump told his Ukrainian counterpart to be "thankful" and accused him of "gambling with World War Three". [BBC / Sky News]

After 10 minutes of Trump and Vance haranguing the Ukraine president, the meeting was over and soon after Zelenskyy was asked to leave.

The events came just a week after Zelenskyy said Trump was "living in a disinformation space" created by Russia following Trump's accusation that Zelenskyy was a "dictator".

It seemed more clear than ever that Trump's allegiance was more strongly aligned to Putin. And while there have been voices in support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, there was little condemnation of Donald Trump.

Following the events on Friday, Sir Keir Starmer expressed his "unwavering support for Ukraine" but stopped short of making comment concerning Trump's remarks.

The French president Emmanuel Macron pointed to his continued support for Ukraine. In a post on X [aka Twitter], he said, "There is an aggressor: Russia. There is a victim: Ukraine. We were right to help Ukraine and sanction Russia three years ago—and to keep doing so."

"By 'we,' I mean the Americans, the Europeans, the Canadians, the Japanese, and many others," Macron continued, "Thank you to all who have helped and continue to do so. And respect to those who have been fighting since the beginning—because they are fighting for their dignity, their independence, their children, and the security of Europe."

Germany's Friedrich Merz, who won the country's election on Sunday, went further however. "Dear Volodymyr @zelenskyyua, we stand with #Ukraine in good and in testing times. We must never confuse aggressor and victim in this terrible war. (FM)" he posted on X [formerly Twitter].

Starmer, meanwhile, merely expressed his "unwavering support for Ukraine" having spoken to both Trump and Zelenskyy after their fiery Oval Office feud threatened to derail Ukraine peace deal [Daily Mail].

There were many comments showing loyal support however. Hungary's Victor Orban was quoted as saying, "Strong men make peace, weak men make war. Today President Trump stood bravely for peace. Even if it was difficult for many to digest. Thank you, Mr. President!"

Meanwhile, Republican senator Lindsey Graham posted a message saying, "Today, President Trump gave a masterclass on how to stand up for America."

In a little over five weeks, Trump has managed to implement some 36% of the right wing agenda of Project 2025 according to some trackers. This week has shown that America is an adversary of Europe, seeking to rob Ukraine of its mineral wealth but hoping to deliver respectability to a war criminal in the Kremlin who has stifled free speech, rigged elections, murdered his opponents, and may yet unleash his army on the Baltic states.

Recently, Bernie Sanders said, "The struggle against Trump, the struggle against authoritarianism, that is not going to be won here in Capitol Hill. It's going to be won by millions of people all over this country standing up and saying, "you know what, we fought and died for democracy, we're not gonna move toward authoritarianism."" [sic]

But, authoritarianism is not America's future, it is the country's present. A nation captured by Trump, his family, the high priests of tech; simultaneously bankrolling the president, enriching themselves, and now casting Europe and Ukraine to the wind.

Following the dystopian scenes in the White House, Bernie Sanders, one of few voices of protest to emanate from Congress, posted this, " After years of Republicans talking about "freedom," is there ONE Republican in Congress prepared to stand with Ukraine and democracy? Or do they ALL agree with Trump that Vladimir Putin, a blood-thirsty dictator, is our ally in this horrific war that he started."

Welcome to the new world order!

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Chinese spies rattle the British

2024-12-18T13:16:00.001+00:00

Anger has boiled over and screams have reached fever pitch in the British media and amongst a number of politicians following revelations that an alleged Chinese spy had formed an "unusual degree of trust" with the Duke of York, Prince Andrew.

Accusations

The man made headlines in early December after being banned from entering the UK and it was subsequently revealed had a close relationship with the disgraced prince.

Initially identified only as H6, the Chinese businessman is also accused of having developed relationships with politicians to be "leveraged" by China.

The Chinese embassy in London has accused some UK parliamentarians of having a "twisted mentality towards China" and that such "anti-China clamours" were an attempt to "smear China, target against the Chinese community in the UK and undermine normal personnel exchanges between China and the UK" [sic]. [Daily Mail / Guardian]

Iain Duncan Smith, who has often criticised China for its human rights abuses, intellectual property theft and espionage, has said he could not understand why people around Prince Andrew were not being checked by the security services.

Growing concerns

The naming of the 'spy' had been blocked, despite his name being in the public domain and easily searched in news articles going back many years. Indeed, the man in question was the subject of some controversy as recently as 2020 when the Daily Mail reported that he had gained access to influential establishment figures, including George Osborne and Prince Andrew.

The article claimed the former Chinese government official had founded the Hampton Group, one of a number of Chinese businesses that facilitated "subtly infiltrating areas of influence," according to the then chair of the defence committee in Britain, Tobias Ellwood. "We have to be very worried about how the regime is manipulating Britain's important areas of interest using these kind of tactics.[sic]"

Yang's background

Yang Tengbo [杨腾波] was born in China in 1974. Having graduated with a bachelor's degree in history from the School of History and Archives at Yunnan University in 1995 he went on to join the civil service [Wikipedia]. While Chinese civil servants are not necessarily members of the Chinese Communist Party [CCP], some 95% of civil servants in leading positions from division (county) level and above are CCP members, thus it is likely Yang had by this time secured membership.

He first came to the UK in 2002 and studied in London for a year, before taking a masters degree in public administration and public policy at the University of York.

In 2005 he founded consultancy firm Hampton Group International - one of five companies he has been publicly listed as a director of in the UK. By this time Yang had become an honorary member of the 48 Group Club, a pro-China lobbying group, and a member of the Chinese Communist Party [BBC / Wikipedia].

In the 2020 book "Hidden Hands" published by Australian researchers, the 48 Group Club was accused of acting as a conduit for the Chinese government to "cultivate" senior British businessmen and politicians, and explored China's covert influence around the world. Meanwhile Yang has reportedly had his membership revoked in light of the allegations against him [Botanwang - Chinese].

Yang's rise to importance continued following the founding of his consultancy firm. In April 2009, Yang Tengbo was cordially received by President Hu Jintao in London and the following year he was awarded the title of "Top Ten Leaders of the 11th China Era Who Influence China" in Beijing. He later initiated the establishment of the China-UK Entrepreneurs Association which facilitated the landing of "Pitch@Palace", a venture capital platform initiated by Prince Andrew, Duke of York, to China to support young entrepreneurs. It was perhaps this enterprise that established his close links with Prince Andrew and which later raised eyebrows with the British security service [zgcforum - Chinese / Guardian].

Gaining advantage

China's foreign policy should come as no surprise to anyone who understands the country. Ever since China 'opened up' in the 1980s, it has sought to gain advantage wherever it can.

For example China might conveniently ignore some WTO and other international trade rules while taking advantage of others. Many people might for example be unaware that China is able to take advantage of cheap postal rates when shipping items all over the world. These lower postal rates are set by the Universal Postal Union (UPU) treaty for so-called 'developing countries'.

In practice a consumer in the US or Europe can order an item from China including shipping for less than what a local seller or distributor might be able to offer the same product. While China is still developing in many ways, the fact that it is the second largest economy seems to be somewhat incongruous with its being judged to have access to more favourable shipping rates.

China has feathered its nest in other ways too. By 'investing' in Africa and other places, building roads and other infrastructure, China has secured cheap copper, oil and other important natural resources.

China has long 'welcomed' businesses to invest and create manufacturing bases in China. However, this has come with a hidden cost as many firms find their intellectual property copied or blatantly stolen.

The world has been coaxed by China's cheap manufacturing base to knock out everything from clothes to hi-tech items. But the factories where these items are produced often have a secret output of items which end up on the 'black-market'.

Stolen IP

Those shanzhai or counterfeit items one might buy at 10% of the cost of the real item at a Beijing store, may in fact be the real item. In other cases, the items are an exact copy since the blueprint is simply passed around between enterprises. Most shanzhai products tend to be aimed at the domestic or tourist market and as such may little dent the profits of some firms. Most Chinese people will be unable to afford a real North Face jacket, Chanel bag or Burberry scarf but will be happy to wear the fake. The tourists are happy too, as they go home with a fake 'Rimowa' suitcase, that normally costs in the region of $1,000, having paid less than $50.

Authorities turn a blind eye to such things for several reasons. The first is 'Bread and Circuses'. Keep the people happy. If people are happy in their lives with their designer clothes, watches, suitcases and phones, they are less likely to create problems. Keep the tourists happy. While the draw to China is more than the lure of cheap designer products at Beijing's infamous Silk Market, there won't be many tourists leaving Beijing without at least a couple of 'knock-off' items.

China, has of course used IP theft to bolster its international position too. It is clear that while many people in the West might buy a branded product, there is a shift towards Chinese brands or cheaper Chinese made products that are essentially copies of well known brands.

Data theft and retention

It will be of no surprise that people's data is worth much to companies. Be it your browsing history on your favourite shopping website to purchasing habits at your local supermarket, collected via a loyalty card, such data is a goldmine.

So it is of growing concern that hacking and cyberattacks are becoming more frequent. And many such attacks are emanating from China. In recent weeks AT&T and other telecoms giants in the US have been targeted prompting the FBI to advise consumers not to send text messages [NPR].

Traditional espionage

Information is everything and can give advantage in business deals and securing contracts. Thus, traditional spying also maintains a place in a world of hi-tech espionage.

It is in this world that the likes of Yang Tengbo play a role. His name was revealed following a High Court ruling on the 16th December. His ban from entering the UK is due to his being deemed a national security risk. He is accused of being engaged in "covert and deceptive activity" on behalf of the Chinese state [Politico].

In part this may be true, in as much as any information, private or otherwise, he gleaned from his contacts would have likely been shared with the Chinese state.

Allegiance to the state

Any member of the CCP [the Chinese Communist Party or Zhongguo Gongchandang 中国共产党] is expected to pay allegiance to the state. Moreover, nearly every professional in China is likely to be a member of the CCP.

While membership is usually by invitation only, without being a member of the CCP an individual is less likely to excel in business or gain a promotion within a company.

Thus the assertion that Yang had 'close links to the Chinese government' is in fact true of probably every top Chinese business person, ambassador or official.

Banned

Yang is reported to have been stopped and questioned by police in November 2021 at the UK border under powers to investigate suspicions of "hostile activity" by a foreign state. This followed shortly after a meeting in London with the Chinese Ambassador to the UK Zheng Zeguang, in his role as Executive Chairman of the Chinese Chamber of Commerce in the UK [UKCBA - Chinese].

During that stop he surrendered a number of electronic devices including a mobile phone. From what was found on the devices it prompted a decision by the then Home Secretary Suella Braverman to use exceptional powers to ban him from the UK.

Information obtained from the devices, including a letter addressed to Yang from Prince Andrew's adviser Dominic Hampshire, appeared to suggest that Yang had placed himself in a position "to generate relationships between senior Chinese officials and prominent UK figures which could be leveraged for political interference purposes by the Chinese State" [BBC].

This is all likely to be true. Though there is an element of naivety on the part of the press and amongst politicians that Yang is an exception. However there are some lone voices calling out the Chinese. Iain Duncan Smith, a former Conservative party leader and strong critic of the Chinese government, has said the allegations surrounding Yang were "the tip of the iceberg" of Chinese influence in the UK [Guardian].

Chris Yang, has described the claims as "ill-founded" while China has repeated it oft repeated line of not meddling in China's internal affairs.

"The UK side must have a right perception of China, see the historical trend clearly, and handle its relations with China on the basis of mutual respect, non-interference in each other's internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit," a spokesperson from the Chinese Embassy in London said in a statement.

Difficult playing fields

At the heart of it all, China is not only seeking strength in terms of its economic position on the world stage, it is also establishing a position of self-sufficiency should it decide, in the future, to close its doors and end its open door policy. Should that happen, despite all the criticisms of China, the world beyond its borders would find itself in a world of hurt. The global economy would find itself without the necessary rare earths needed for technology, much of the world's manufactured goods and even food, given China supplies a quarter of the world's grain and feeds one-fifth of the world's population. Moreover, China ranks first globally in producing cereals - such as corn, wheat, and rice - fruit, vegetables, meat, poultry, eggs, and fishery products [CFR].

It's all very well to criticise China. Many criticisms are of course well founded. But the West has made decisions over the last few decades that has resulted in the erosion of domestic manufacturing and agriculture in favour of a quick economically viable solution by farming industry out to China. Some resources, such as rare earths, do exist outside of China. But the mining operations have, in many cases, been mothballed, partly due to environmental and other considerations. Thus, should China shut its doors, it would take decades for the world to recover its industry, agriculture and restart mining of natural resources.

The West must plan for such eventualities. China plans for years, decades and even centuries ahead. Most western democracies focus only on the short term, planning only from one election cycle to another. Such short-termism will be their undoing if they don't wake up and smell the coffee. At least one doesn't have to rely on China for the morning brew with the likes of Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia and Columbia providing the bulk of the world's coffee beans [Wikipedia]. However, an increasing amount is now being shipped to China as their appetite for coffee grows. Exports of Brazilian coffee to China surged 186.1% in 2024 compared to 2022-2023. So even that's not a safe bet [Xinhua].

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HMS Britain sinking as economy slides

2024-12-13T12:42:00.000+00:00

When the new Labour government sought office it promised 'Change' and claimed that it had costed its manifesto pledges whilst dismissing in a number of pre-election debates that it would not raise taxes.

Black holes and expectations

Yet within weeks of winning the 2024 general election the new administration took aim at pensioners by cutting winter fuel payments and warned of a 'painful' budget due to a 'black hole' in the economy which it claimed it had not foreseen and that it had inherited from the previous Tory government.

Since the election Labour repeatedly claimed to have inherited a "£22 billion black hole" from the previous government. But there are suggestions the hole could be even larger with the Guardian pointing to a £100 billion hole and Sky News, prior to the budget, that the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves was looking to find £40 billion to plug public finances.

Whether the figure is as low as £20 billion or as much as £100 billion, it should come as no surprise to anyone that the British economy is failing.

GDP falls again

On Friday 13th December new figures showed the UK economy had declined further in October from the previous month, sinking the pound, and providing a tailwind for a FTSE 100 stacked with international earners

According to the Office for National Statistics, UK gross domestic product fell 0.1% in October from a month prior. In September, GDP had fallen at the same rate. Moreover, the UK economy barely grew between July and September, with uncertainty about the Budget being blamed for the weak growth [BBC / Sky News].

Labour had made boosting economic growth its top priority when it came into power but Chancellor Rachel Reeves said she was "not satisfied" with these latest figures which cover the first three months of the new government.

Following criticism of her fiscal policy Reeves claimed that she had seen little in the way of solutions being put forward.

Elephant in the Room

However there is an elephant in the room that most politicians continue to ignore; that of Brexit.

Whether the majority of the British people voted for it or not, the fact is leaving the EU has decimated the economy. And the cost to each individual, on average, is significant.

A government report published in January this year said that the average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of Brexit. Further to this the report said the UK economy was almost £140 billion smaller because of Brexit. According to the new research, the economic damage is only going to get worse – with more than £300 billion set to be wiped off the value of the UK's economy by 2035 if no action is taken, and more than £60 billion wiped off the value of London's economy alone [London gov / Camecon PDF].

While the report was commissioned by the divisive politician Sadiq Khan and city hall, the otherwise independent report paints a bleak picture.

It also reinforces what is already known.

GDP loss

Estimates of the UK's GDP loss range from 1.2–4.5%. The UK's real Gross Value Added (GVA) in 2023 is around £140 billion less than it would have been if the UK remained in the EU.

Job losses

The UK has 1.8 million fewer jobs than it would have if Brexit had not happened. Moreover the UK is projected to have nearly 3 million fewer jobs post-Brexit by 2035.

Trade decline

UK goods exports to the EU have fallen by 27% since 2021, and imported goods are 32% lower. However, services have performed better than expected, with service exports now outpacing goods exports.

Regional disparities

The economic decline has been most pronounced in England and Scotland, while Northern Ireland has mostly benefited.

Foreign investment

Inward foreign direct investment dropped by 12.3 billion in 2020, the first drop since 2008.

Productivity

The OBR estimates that the UK's productivity could fall by 4% over the long term.

Living standards

Lower productivity usually means slower wage growth and lower living standards.

The list is almost endless.

It's the economy, stupid!

But while hardline Brexiteers may bleat about sovereignty - which was never really lost by being a member of the EU - to quote the US Democratic party strategist James Carville, "It's the economy, stupid!"

Simply put, if the economy is doing well, everything falls into place. If the economy fails it can lead to recession and even revolution.

Britain is unlikely to revolt. But the risk of a deep recession is very real [City AM] .

Of course money needs to be found to deal with the £22 billion deficit, and fund housing, infrastructural projects, the health service, etc.

But taxing a population who are already feeling the pain of Brexit repercussions, as well as the fallout from the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, will not improve matters.

Britain needs to attract investment, which in turn creates jobs. However, foreign investors are dissuaded from investing in the UK, primarily because of Brexit, due to increased red tape which makes exporting products to the EU more difficult logistically, and more expensive.

Tourism

There has been a fall in tourism to the UK since Brexit, especially school exchange trips. While new rules for French school trips were introduced in December 2023 there are concerns these may be affected by more Brexit red tape to come [Guardian].

And while there has been a slight lift in school parties heading to Britain since the former PM Rishi Sunak made a deal with the French last year, things don't always work out as intended. Earlier this month a minor paperwork error left 100 French schoolchildren stranded and forced to head back to their hometown after UK border officials refused entry.

The group of Year 6 students aged 10 and 11, had been eagerly anticipating their five-day trip to the Scottish Highlands. British border officials in Amsterdam refused them entry, citing incorrect information on the France-UK School Trip Travel Information Form, a mandatory document since Brexit for French students travelling to the UK. The error was a trivial one in that the school had mistakenly entered both identity card and passport numbers into the same section of the form, rather than separating them into their designated fields.

The 'jobs-worth' border guards could not be dissuaded by Dutch port officials who attempted to mediate and the students simply had to return to Saint-Winoc college in Bergues in northern France [La Voix du Nord].

The incident was not an isolated one. And while the news made headlines mostly in the French press, it is not good for Anglo-French relations.

Economically it is a disaster. French educational trips alone contributed around £100 million per year to the UK economy before Brexit [Schengen News]. But after Britain left the EU in January 2020 the numbers of trips fell by 60%. Sunak's deal with Macron last year boosted numbers a little but figures show only a 30% lift [Guardian / East Anglia Bylines].

Exports

Heading the other way are British exports. Though since Brexit these too have fallen off a cliff. British food sales to the EU have fallen by more than 16% on average across the three years since Brexit, with businesses blaming new border checks.

The report by the Centre of Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) equates the financial figure to being a £2.82 billion a year drop in produce travelling from Britain to the EU [Sky News].

And it gets worse as the EU's General Product Safety Regulation (GPSR) will apply as of 13th December making it a requirement for businesses in third countries to carry out and record safety checks for items they wish to import into the EU bloc. Of course, this comes with a cost as well as yet more paperwork. The result, yet more small businesses giving up exporting from UK PLC [iNews].

There are of course other issues that Brexit has affected; immigration being perhaps one of the most contentious subjects. But economically Brexit has severely damaged the British economy and it's only likely to get worse according to economists [BBC].

BoE criticism

Soon after Rachel Reeves' budget the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bayley made a speech in which he said that Brexit had "weighed" on the economy.

"The changing trading relationship with the EU has weighed on the level of potential supply. The impact on trade seems to be more in goods than services, that is not particularly surprising to my mind. But it underlines why we must be alert to and welcome opportunities to rebuild relations while respecting the decision of the British people," Bayley said [BBC / Guardian / BoE].

Bailey was attempting to be diplomatic in stating that the UK should "rebuild relations while respecting the decision of the British people." However, polls are increasingly showing that the British people's position on Brexit has clearly shifted [Guardian].

Labour pledges

The new Labour government has dismissed out of hand any notion that Britain should rejoin the EU, the single market or the customs union.

Politically it would be damaging, since the pledge not to rejoin was clearly set out in their manifesto. But at some point the government needs to wake up and smell the coffee before it is too late to turn the boat around.

Rachel Reeves speaks of being "disappointed" concerning figures showing Britain's economic slowdown and merely talks of "hope" that things might improve [Daily Mail].

Hopes & Dreams

But futures aren't built on hopes and dreams. Farmers might have hoped for a better harvest this year. Yet inclement weather this year has resulted in the second worst harvest on record. The wheat harvest in England is estimated to be down by 21%, with Britain's wine producers also hit hard. Some harvests are down by between 75% and a third, depending on the region [Guardian].

While this has nothing to do with Brexit, leaving the EU will make replenishing the shortfalls with imported wheat more costly for consumers in the coming months since imports will prove more expensive due to Brexit related red tape.

The economic slump and rising costs is only likely to increase a brain drain. Recent polls indicate that some 23% of UK adults are considering moving abroad in the next five years, with 12% contemplating emigration in the next 12 months [ifammagazine].

Such figures are of course speculative. A desire to leave won't necessarily manifest itself in reality since there are practical and financial factors that may thwart such a move.

Nonetheless it is concerning that ever growing numbers of the better educated and qualified are expressing the desire to jump off what might be perceived as a sinking ship, HMS Britain.

Change

So back to that 'black hole'. Should the current government make the decision to rejoin the EU, what would that mean in reality?

There would of course be political repercussions from the hardline Brexit headbangers within the Tory party and Nigel Farage's Reform UK. Such protestations could of course be stemmed by proposing a final binding referendum, now that the British public has seen the fallout from the 2016 Brexit decision.

Negotiations could then be discussed, in lieu of this, with EU counterparts with a proposal to implement article 49, and thus pave the way to Britain's rejoining the bloc.

The mere proposal to rejoin, while upsetting some, would likely increase confidence within business and could bolster investment from abroad if seen as a serious attempt at becoming a key player within Europe once again. This in turn could see deficits reduced and a rebuilding of the economy.

Of course there will be hurdles. And it could take up to ten years before being ratified - though there is a slim chance that this could be sped up if there was agreement on all sides.

A change of direction, rather than the 'make Brexit work' approach - which clearly isn't working, has a far greater potential of bringing back some buoyancy to HMS Britain and help turn the ship around.

Britain may still have some future, but not whilst it is sailing around in a rudderless ship without a clear set course, and from which greater numbers of passengers and crew are fleeing in whatever lifeboats they can find.

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