NHL Gambling: an Expert's Picks and Insights

New Blog Direction

2011-03-11T22:18:00.000-08:00

Hey guys,

Thanks for following my blog so far and I'm glad you all seem to like what I've been posting. Unfortunately, my schedule is about to get really hectic, and I doubt I can do daily picks posts any longer. I finish with a 24-15 overall record for my picks. Hopefully once my schedule clears up a little, I can resume making picks.

My schedule coupled with my desire to do more analysis (and occasional hockey rants) have led me to the decision that I shall be taking this blog in a new direction (...change we can believe in?)! I will now mostly be posting analysis, comments, and/or rants about whatever is going on in the hockey world that I find particularly interesting (such as this and this post).

I am really excited about taking my blog in this new direction, and I think you guys will like it just as much as I do. Feel free to drop a comment and let me know what you guys think about this, I'd love to hear from ya.

Stay tuned for the first post in this new, exciting direction!

03/09/2011 NHL Picks

2011-03-09T09:30:00.000-08:00

Last night was the very definition of mediocrity as I went .500. As an aside, I'd just like to point out the Chicago game was some ridiculously good luck by the Panthers as play and SOG (39-15 in favor of the 'Hawks) were completely and utterly dominated by Chicago. What can you do though, sometimes all of the bounces go the other way.

Moving on, tonight's matchups are:

Edmonton Oilers (+240) at Washington Capitals (-280):
This is the second game of a back-to-back for the Oilers, the first being a 4-1 loss to the Flyers. The Oilers were inferior in skill to begin with, but now with the loss of number 1 draft pick Taylor Hall and power forward Dustin Penner, expect the Capitals, who are playing their best hockey of the season, to roll right through them.
Pick: Washington Capitals

St. Louis Blues (+115) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-135):
The Blues will get a boost from the return of starting goaltender Jaroslav Halak while the Blue Jackets' starter, Steve Mason, has been doing his best impersonation of swiss cheese allowing 12 goals while going 0-2-2 in his last four starts. Look for the underdog Blues to sweep this home-and-home series.
Pick: St. Louis Blues

Atlanta Thrashers (+160) at Carolina Hurricanes (-180):
The Thrashers have been struggling of late (3-6-1 in their last 10) and will now be without the services of top scoring defenseman Dustin Byfuglien. The 'Canes seem to have Atlanta's number as they have won every single one of the four games between these two teams previous to this one.
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes

Chicago Blackhawks (-115) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-105):
The champs are 8-2-0 in their last 10 and are coming off two of their best periods of the year last night where they absolutely dominated play in the second and third periods. The Lightning, in stark contrast, are playing their worst hockey of the season and have gone 3-4-3 in their last 10. Plus, the 'Hawks have won their last three games against the Lightning.
Pick: Chicago Blackhawks

Los Angeles Kings (+140) at Detroit Red Wings (-160):
Both teams have been playing mediocre hockey as of late, but expect the Red Wings to start playing the right way as the playoffs approach. The last time these two teams met (February 28), the Wings routed the Kings in Los Angeles 7-1 before LA got in some reconciliation goals to end it 7-4.
Pick: Detroit Red Wings

Calgary Flames (+110) at Dallas Stars (-130):
The Flames have won all three of these two teams' previous meetings and are playing much better as of late (7-2-1 in last 10) than Dallas (5-4-1 in last 10) as the Stars continue to miss leading scorer Brad Richards. Go with the underdogs on this one.
Pick: Calgary Flames

New York Rangers (+100) at Anaheim (-120):
The Rangers are fresh off a 7-0 thumping of the Flyers where Ryan Callahan scored 4 goals and Henrik Lundqvist got his league-leading ninth shutout. Anaheim, on the other hand, is fresh off getting shutout by the Canucks and are clearly missing all-star goalie Joans Hiller and second line pivot Saku Koivu. Look for another underdog victory here.
Pick: New York Rangers

All money lines are from sportsbook.com unless otherwise indicated.

Who will make the playoffs in the Western Conference?

2011-03-08T11:34:00.000-08:00

I recently looked at the Devils' chances of making the playoffs and how the Eastern Conference is projected to finish. Per the request of a reader, I am now going to take a look at how the West is projected to finish.

The West is a veritable logjam as only 5 points separate fourth place from eleventh place. You read that right, FIVE points. That means if you lose a game in the West, you could potentially slide three places and out of the playoff picture. That is ridiculous. The NHL wanted parity coming out of the '04-'05 lockout, and they got it.

The question becomes, then, out of these eight bubble teams, which ones make the playoffs? Well, here's who's projected to make the playoffs in the West as of right now:

GR is Games Remaining, PPT is Projected Point Total, PFP is Projected Finishing Place, L10 P% is a team's P% over its last 10 games, L10 PPT is a team's PPT calculated using L10 P%, and L10 PFP is a team's PFP based on its L10 PPT.

If teams were to earn points at the rate they have all season, the teams would finish in the exact order they are in now. If teams were to earn points at the rate they have for their last 10 games, then the seeding would change, but the 8 teams to make the playoffs remain the same.

Keep in mind, however, that these are projected finishes based on past performance. Any one team can go on a hot streak and get into the playoffs, or go on a cold streak and drop out of the playoffs. That's the beauty of hockey, you never know what will happen. Remember the '09-'10 Flyers?

03/08/2011 Picks

2011-03-08T08:33:00.000-08:00

Worst outing so far last night. When you get a pick wrong in overtime and a pick wrong in the shootout though, you know you were damn close. Here's to righting the ship tonight.

Tonight's matchups are:

Edmonton Oilers (+230) at Philadelphia Flyers (-270):
Philly will snap its four-game losing streak here against the Oilers as the Flyers are the vastly superior team.
Pick: Philadelphia Flyers

Buffalo Sabres (-105) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-115):
This is a really close matchup, but I'll give the edge to the underdog Sabres as they are playing good hockey, having won their last 2 games. Furthermore, the Sabres are fighting for a playoff berth while the Crosby and Malkin-less Penguins are reeling with a 3-3-4 record in their last 10 games.
Pick: Buffalo Sabres

Ottawa Senators (+220) at New Jersey Devils (-260):
Ottawa is the worst team in the league and their sale of valuable players at the deadline is not going to help their team this season (although it should help in the long run). The Devils, on the other hand, are the hottest team in the league by far having gone an absurd 21-2-2 in their last 25 games.
Pick: New Jersey Devils

Toronto Maple Leafs (-115) at New York Islanders (-105):
I am not touching this one as both teams are playing mediocre hockey and the money lines are not appealing for this game. I'd advise against betting on it. If you absolutely had to make a pick though, pick the Maple Leafs who have been slightly better in their last 10 games (6-1-3) and are fighting for a playoff spot.
Pick: None

Boston Bruins (-110) at Montreal Canadiens (-110):
The Bruins (7-2-1) and the Canadiens have been pretty hot (6-3-1) throughout their last 10. The Bruins had a seven-game winning streak before losing in overtime to the Penguins in their last game, while the Canadiens are currently riding a four-game winning streak. It's going to be close, but I'm going with the Bruins as I believe they are a serious championship contender with their deadline acquisitions.
Pick: Boston Bruins

Chicago Blackhawks (-210) at Florida Panthers (+175):
Chicago is on an eight-game winning streak, and captain Jonathan Toews is on fire. The Panthers are in the East cellar and are struggling mightily as of late.
Pick: Chicago Blackhawks

Colorado Avalanche (+165) at Minnesota Wild (-190):
Colorado has been playing abysmally, going 1-7-2 over their last 10. Their main problem is their goaltending, or the lack thereof. Until that is fixed, they are not going to win many hockey games. Expect the Wild, who are battling for a playoff berth, to jump at the opportunity to grab two points against a struggling team.
Pick: Minnesota Wild

Vancouver Canucks (-130) at Phoenix Coyotes (+110):
The Canucks are playing well and are sitting at the top of the league. I think Phoenix will challenge them, but I doubt they come away with the win unless Bryzgalov is huge tonight.
Pick: Vancouver Canucks

Nashville Predators (+165) at San Jose Sharks (-190):
The Sharks are playing their best hockey of the season while the Preds are playing their worst hockey of the season. They have gone 8-2-0 and 3-5-2 in their last 10 games, respectively.
Pick: San Jose Sharks

All money lines are from sportsbook.com unless otherwise stated.

Can the New Jersey Devils Complete their Historic Push into the Playoffs?

2011-03-07T08:33:00.000-08:00

As I'm sure we have all noticed, the Devils have been the hottest team in the league with a 21-2-2 record over their last 25 games. That means the Devils have been collecting 88.0% of all their possible points over that span. Let that number sink in for a moment. That is absolutely ridiculous. Just to provide a frame of reference, the Canucks who lead the league in P% have been amassing points at a 69.4% clip.
New Jersey, if you recall, was in last place in the Eastern Conference for most of the first half of the season. Now they are 4 spots and 8 points out of a playoff berth. They only have 17 games left to overcome that deficit. If they continue to earn points at their current absurd pace of 88.0%, and all other teams in the league continue to earn points according to their season-long P% here's how the Eastern Conference would finish:

GR is Games Remaining, PPT is Projected Point Total, and PFP is Projected Finishing Place

Unfortunately, it looks like the Devils will fall 2 places and ~2.5 points short of a playoff berth if they maintain their blistering P% and every other team earns points at the same rate they have all year. The bubble teams' remaining strength of schedule should then factor into how strongly each team finishes.

RSOS is Remaining Strength of Schedule, bubble teams are bolded. Credit to http://www.playoffstatus.com for calculating the remaining strength of schedule.

The Devils have the easiest remaining schedule out of the East bubble teams. That should certainly help them in securing a playoff spot. So are the chances of the New Jersey Devils making the playoffs highly unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No.

03/07/2011 Picks

2011-03-07T08:17:00.000-08:00

Last night was another good night as I went 5-1. One overtime loss away from a perfect night. Maybe tonight?

There are only 3 games slated for tonight, so let's dive right in:

Washington Capitals (+100) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-120):
First place in the Southeast division is on the line tonight, and the Caps are coming in hot having won their last 4 games. The underdog Caps have plenty of motivation too as they have been chasing Tampa for the division lead for most of the season.
Pick: Washington Capitals

Columbus Blue Jackets (+115) at St. Louis Blues (-135):
Columbus has already blown out the Blues twice this season and seems to have their number. Go with the underdogs.
Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets

Dallas Stars (+155) at Los Angeles Kings (-175):
The Stars are going up against LA's stingy defense without their leading scorer Brad Richards.
Pick: Los Angeles Kings

All money lines are from sportsbook.com unless otherwise stated.

03/06/2011 Picks

2011-03-06T08:43:00.000-08:00

Last night was full of upset wins; however, I called enough of these upsets to emerge with a winning 6-4 record from my picks last night.

Tonight's matchups are:

Philadelphia Flyers (-120) at New York Rangers (+100):
Expect New York, who is fighting for a playoff spot, to pounce on a reeling Flyers squad who has lost its last three games.
Pick: New York Rangers

New Jersey Devils (-145) at New York Islanders (+125):
The Devils are as hot as any team in the league currently riding a three-game winning streak and having gone 9-1-0 in their last 10 games. Look for the Devils to continue their unlikely push into the playoff picture against an Islanders team that is virtually assured to miss the playoffs.
Pick: New Jersey Devils

Washington Capitals (-165) at Florida Panthers (+145):
The Caps are on a three-game winning streak and have yet to lose since acquiring Arnott, Wideman, and Sturm at the deadline. Florida is playing poorly and that is reflected in their 2-7-1 record over their last 10 games.
Pick: Washington Capitals

Buffalo Sabres (+120) at Minnesota Wild (-140):
This is the second game of a back-to-back for the Sabres, while Wild backup goalie Jose Theodore has been playing lights out lately.
Pick: Minnesota Wild

Vancouver Canucks (-130) at Anaheim Ducks (+110):
The Ducks' loss of starting all-star goalie Jonas Hiller will catch up to them as their offense cannot keep covering for their poor goaltending.
Pick: Vancouver Canucks

Nashville Predators (+120) at Calgary Flames (-140):
I am not touching this one as it is too much of a tossup. If I had to pick though, I would go with the Flames (6-3-1 in last 10) as they have been playing slightly better than the Preds (4-4-2 in last 10) lately.
Pick: Calgary Flames

All money lines are from sportsbook.com unless otherwise stated.

03/05/2011 Picks

2011-03-05T10:16:00.000-08:00

Last night was a perfect night if you followed my advice as I went 5-0 on my picks. Hope you all enjoy your winnings.

Without further ado, let's take a look at tonight's matchups:

Buffalo Sabres (+170) at Philadelphia Flyers (-200):
Philly is sliding with two straight losses while Buffalo is playing desperate as they are one place out of the playoff picture. Look for the underdog to pull out the win in this one.
Pick: Buffalo Sabres

St. Louis Blues (-115) at New York Islanders (-105):
The Blues are in a tailspin right now having lost their last 3 games while the Islanders have been playing solid .500 hockey lately. I'm going with my second-straight underdog pick.
Pick: New York Islanders

Vancouver Canucks (+100) at Los Angeles Kings (-120):
The Canucks' depleted blueline is catching up to them while the Kings are heating up with a 7-2-1 record in their last 10 games. Look for the Kings to pull off the win.
Pick: Los Angeles Kings

Chicago Blackhawks (-130) at Toronto Maple Leafs (+110):
The 'Hawks are red hot right now, having won their last 7 games. Expect them to steamroll over Toronto with their superior talent and extend their streak to 8.
Pick: Chicago Blackhawks

Florida Panthers (+125) at Atlanta Thrashers (-145):
Both teams have been playing poorly as of late, with Florida going 3-7-0 in its last 10 games and Atlanta going 2-7-1. However, I believe Atlanta is currently a better team than Florida who just lost top 4 defenseman Dennis Wideman.
Pick: Atlanta Thrashers

Montreal Canadiens (+120) at Tampa Bay Lightening (-140):
While Tampa has won both meetings between the two teams so far this season, look for the Canadiens to exact some revenge as the Habs are coming in hot having won their last three games. Expect the Canadiens to pull off the upset win.
Pick: Montreal Canadiens

Pittsburgh Penguins (+180) at Boston Bruins (-220):
This is the second game of a back-to-back for the Pens. Pittsburgh has really been struggling without Crosby and Malkin, going 2-4-4 over their last 10 games. This is in stark contrast to the Bruins who are coming in red hot having won their last 7 games and whose trade deadline acquisitions have transformed them into a serious contender.
Pick: Boston Bruins

Detroit Red Wings (-125) at Phoenix Coyotes (+105):
In a rematch of last year's Western Conference quarterfinals, look for the underdogs (Coyotes) to even the season series up 2-2 as they are still bitter from last year's Game 7 trouncing at the hands of the Wings.
Pick: Phoenix Coyotes

Edmonton Oilers (+130) at Colorado Avalanche (-150):
The Oilers' loss of Dustin Penner to trade and Taylor Hall to injury will slow them down. Expect the Avalanche to capitalize on this.
Pick: Colorado Avalanche

Dallas Stars (+190) at San Jose Sharks (-230):
The Sharks are the hottest team in the league right now riding an eight-game win streak, while the Stars have been struggling without all-star Brad Richards.
Pick: San Jose Sharks

All money lines are from sportsbook.com unless otherwise stated.

03/04/2011 Picks

2011-03-04T08:58:00.000-08:00

There are only 5 games slated for tonight, so let's dive right in:

Pittsburgh Penguins (+150) at New Jersey Devils (-170):
The Crosby and Malkin-less Pens have been reeling with a 3-4-3 record over their last 10 games. This is in stark contrast to the Devils who have been on an absolute tear and are red hot with a 9-1-0 record in their last 10 games. Expect the Devils to continue their unlikely rise into the playoff picture, I'm betting the Devils on this one.
Pick: New Jersey Devils

Columbus Blue Jackets (+145) at Calgary Flames (-165):
This will be a tight game as both teams are fighting for a playoff spot in the crowded West. Both teams come into the contest having lost their last game and with a 5-3-2 record in their last 10 games. Calgary had been pretty hot before cooling off recently, look for them to get going again against the Blue Jackets with the help of stellar goaltending from Kiprusoff.
Pick: Calgary Flames

New York Rangers (-135) at Ottawa Senators (+115):
Ottawa has begun the rebuilding process and sits at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. They face a hungry Rangers team battling for a playoff spot. Expect Lundqvist to outduel Anderson in net and help the Rangers snap their three game losing streak.
Pick: New York Rangers

Carolina Hurricanes (+175) at Chicago Blackhawks (-210):
Chicago has won their last 6 games and their captain Jonathan Toews has been as hot as anybody in the league. Look for them to continue their streak against the 'Canes.
Pick: Chicago Blackhawks

Dallas Stars (+120) at Anaheim Ducks (-140):
Both teams have key injuries to all-star players (Richards for the Stars and Hiller for the Ducks) and have been heating up lately so this should be a very close game. I have to go with the Ducks though as their top line of Perry-Getzlaf-Ryan is pure magic and can take over any game.
Pick: Anaheim Ducks

All money lines presented are from sportsbook.com unless otherwise stated.