1. Utah and Miami - Boozer would love a deal that would send him to Miami, and Wade would likely hook-up on an extension right away if Boozer came to town. It’s hard to imagine who Miami would send back to Utah, however. If they were willing to part with some young guards (whom Utah has no need for), Udonis Haslem, a draft pick, and $3 million in cash, they could string a deal together. It’s possible on paper, but it looks like a bad deal for Utah. Miami might consider trading Beasley for Boozer, but that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me - Beasley has more upside and Utah doesn’t need him.

2. Utah and Chicago - This is the deal that gets everyone excited, but honestly I don’t get it. Trading Boozer for Tyrus Thomas and Salmons sounds like a decent deal for Utah, but I think it makes Chicago worse. Trading Tyrus Thomas and an expiring deal sounds better for Chicago, but that’s a pittance for Utah. Ultimately, I doubt that Utah is that interested in Tyrus Thomas. He’s not a Sloan-type player, and the whole point of trading Boozer is to clear the way for Milsap while also getting some value. Thomas is going to want minutes, so adding him just creates more problems.

3. Utah and Detroit - I doubt it. Detroit had their chance to make a run at Boozer in the days heading up to free agency and they never expressed interest. If they had, Utah wouldn’t be in this situation in the first place.

4. Utah and Charlotte - This one isn’t getting a lot of press, but it seems possible. Charlotte could send Gerald Wallace and a small contract to Utah for Boozer, and both teams would likely get better. The problem is that I doubt Charlotte wants to pay Boozer big dollars next summer, so they would likely be losing Gerald Wallace to rent Boozer for a season - probably not going to happen.

5. Utah and the Knicks - I’m about to layout a crazy trade scenario, but honestly it makes as much sense as anything else I can think of. The Knicks could sign and trade David Lee and Cuttino Mobely to Utah for Boozer and Harpring.

If Utah traded for David Lee, they could either a) have an excuse to let Milsap go to Portland or b) have one of the best front lines in the Western Conference with Lee, Milsap, and Okur.

NYC would get the rights to re-sign Boozer next summer along with another big-time free agent, so it’s a win for them.

The way I’ve laid out this trade, Utah could afford to pay Milsap AND Lee next year and then let some people go next summer. Here’s how it would work.

• The Knicks sign Lee to a front-loaded contract with his first year at about 11.6 million.

• The Knicks then trade Lee and Cat Mobley to Utah for Boozer and Harpring. Lee is a base year compensation (BYC) player, so the league only counts 1/2 of his new salary towards the trade on New York’s side of the equation.

• i.e., NY sends out 9.5 million for Mobley and 5.8 million for Lee (because of the BYC rule), or 15.3 million as far as the trade rules are concerned.

• Utah sends out 12.7 for Boozer plus 6.5 for Harpring - 19.2 million total. This is barely within the allowable range for NY.

• Utah takes back more salary than they sent out - 21.1 million. Adding this extra 1.9 million to the salary also adds another 1.9 million in luxury taxes, so Utah’s costs will go up 3.8 million.

• However, since insurance covers 7.6 million of Mobley’s contract Utah is actually UP 3.8 million after you account for the extra salary and tax due to Lee.

• NYC sends Utah $3 million in cash to make the deal, so Utah ends up with $6.8 million in savings that they can use to pay for Milsap.

• Utah could likely get one of NY’s first round draft picks as well.

In Utah, Lee can step in and produce immediately. Utah might also have a first round pick to look forward to, and Mobley’s expiring contract next summer takes them out of the tax. Best of all, they would get to keep their guy Milsap.

Lee, Milsap, and Okur would be a great front line to match-up against Portland, Denver, L.A., and San Antonio, and their line will only get better as the years go by. It’s not necessarily the cheapest way to go for Utah, but it’s a nice deal for sure.

Best of all, Portland’s front office comes off looking like a bunch of dummies.

Thoughts?

Kurt Thomas would be a great Denver Nugget

Here’s what I like about Denver trading for Kurt Thomas (aside from the fact that Thomas is a better player than Steven Hunter):

1. Thomas is an excellent defender with veteran savvy. He’s not as quick as he used to be, but he understands position and he’s a big body. He’s more than good enough to help lock down the middle on the second unit, and he’s still fast enough to guard some of the NBA’s slower bigs (Yao, Tim Duncan, and Shaq) for a few minutes per night.
2. Thomas has great shooting range for a center. Thomas can step back just past the free throw line and knock down jumpers all day long. Denver only has one big with that shot in his repertoire (Nene), and he already plays a lot of minutes. [To be honest, I think Thomas is probably a better shooter than Nene.]
3. He’s a good rebounder. He pulled down one rebound every 3.5 minutes last year in San Antonio - that’s better than Nene (1 rebound every 4.2 minutes last season), much better than K-Mart (5.3 minutes per) and only slightly less than Chris Anderson (3.3 minutes per).
4. He fits well at PF or C. He’s got the length to play center but he’s not so big that he can’t play power forward. If and/or when Nene, K-Mart, or Chris Anderson miss a game, Thomas can step in and cover.
5. He’s easy to trade again later. If Denver decides to make a trade again around mid-season, there isn’t a team in the league that wouldn’t be interested in Kurt Thomas. Not only is he the consummate professional that helps teams win, but he’s probably going to be interested in a buyout if he lands on a team with no prospects. If Denver works out a deal with a team headed for the lottery, Thomas is more of an asset than Steven Hunter because Thomas would likely be interested in a buyout.

I’m guessing that Milwaukee would entertain a swap of Hunter for Thomas. Hunter’s salary is slightly lower, and going forward Hunter would be a better long-term prospect (Hunter is still relatively young and might succeed in the right surroundings). If Denver offered a little cash to go along with Hunter, they’d have a serviceable backup for Nene with very little invested.

Besides, I don’t see Thomas wanting to stay in Milwaukee. He’ll be 37 when the season starts, and I doubt he’s interested in coming off the bench for a team that would be lucky to make the playoffs.

What do you think - could Denver work out a trade of Hunter + cash for Kurt Thomas? Should they?

Denver’s disadvantage on the boards is profound. They’never been good on the boards this season…if only McDyess had stayed. The Nuggets are still one big man away.

By the way, I’m pretty sure that Carter isn’t the Nuggets best passer. Why is he making the in-bounds on the most critical possession of the game? Karl’s confidence in his role players is great, but he deserves part of the blame here as well.

Just in case you didn’t notice, Melo had a HUGE game. Not only did he carry his team, but he probably made himself a ton of cash. A couple more games like this and Melo is going to be lookin’ at some big endorsement opportunities. Good for him.

Ariza was a non factor guarding Melo, just as I said he would be. His lack of strength and his comparitive lack of quickness (Melo is fast for such a big player) were Ariza’s undoing. The Lakers are going to need to adjust in game 2, but how? Who can cover Melo? Kobe wasn’t tremendously successful because…

Kobe won’t get all the calls against Melo that he normally gets as a “first team defender.” Kobe is accustomed to getting the benefit of the doubt, but that’s not going to happen while guarding Melo. I think that means that Melo has officially arrived.

As a Nuggets fan, I think Kobe deserves a flagrant 1 after-the-fact for his shot on Kenyon’s package. I think the timing is suspicious - K-Mart was jawing at Odom about 5 seconds previous to Kobe’s “accidental” shot. However…

As an NBA observer I highly doubt the NBA will do anything, and honestly I don’t know that they should. It’s hard to make that kind of call after the fact. Not only is it unfair (only the refs on the floor should be making that judgment), but it sets a bad precedent. Still, it says here that Kobe is a passive-aggressive bastard.

Two smart defensive assignments - Melo on Kobe (no gimme calls for Kobe) and Ariza on Billups (Chauncey disappeared for while).

Did anyone else notice Ariza flattening himself against a Chris Anderson screen? I bet that hurt.

Denver must correct their rotation problem. Farmar, Fisher, Ariza, and Shannon Brown all benefited from wide-open looks multiple times simply because someone on the Nuggets didn’t rotate. Most of the time, the players that didn’t rotate were Melo and J.R. Smith.

L.A. is still very much a soft team. Gasol and Odom were both intimidated by K-Mart, Nene, and Anderson. One more reason you can write me down for the Cavs winning it all.

Denver is good, but not good enough. Good game.

Point Guards - Billups and Carter vs. Fisher, Farmar, and Brown. There’s an awful lot to like about L.A.’s trio of point guards. Brown is lightening quick, Farmar is a talented shooter and capable player, and Fisher is big, strong, and clutch. Denver’s Anthony Carter is a good game manager and a great defender, but I don’t think he’ll be able to match the point output from Brown and Farmar. Lucky for Denver, Chauncey will easily outplay Fisher. Advantage: Nuggets.

Shooting Guards - Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith vs. Vujacic and some guy named Kobe. If the series lasts 7 games, there will be 1 game where J.R. Smith almost matches Kobe offensively - ONE. Most of the time, Kobe will double up J.R.’s scoring. When you add in Kobe’s defensive abilities and his superman powers, he wins the match-up all by himself.

Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones managed to get under Kobe’s skin a little in this series. In fact, the best thing Jones can do is figure out a way to get Kobe suspended (sounds like a crappy job). Advantage: Lakers (and it’s big).

Small Forward - Anthony and Kleiza vs. Ariza and Walton. Melo is going to use and abuse both Ariza and Walton (assuming Luke Walton will contribute) - he’s simply too strong and too quick. Melo’s opportunity to shine in this series is big - if he can carry his team the way that Kobe carries the Lakers, the Nuggets will be tough to beat. Count on Kleiza to be a no-show (Kleiza’s time as a Nugget is just about over, by the way). Advantage: Nuggets.

Power Forward - Kenyon Martin and Chris Anderson vs. Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol. I really like the Lamar Odom Kenyon Martin match-up when the two players are healthy, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Odom is banged up, so Kenyon’s toughness and physicality will likely make Odom a non-factor. When Kenyon spends time guarding Gasol, L.A. will benefit since Gasol is comfortable and capable of stepping out and shooting over Kenyon’s head.

Gasol’s height advantage leads me to believe that Chris Anderson will be playing a lot of minutes guarding Gasol in this series. Anderson’s energy and length really bothered Dirk Nowitzki, and you’ve got to believe he’ll be able to interfere with Gasol’s rythym. Still, it must be said that a bad game for Gasol is still a decent outing for any other player. Denver will need both K-Mart and Anderson at their best defensively if they want to have any chance of beating L.A. Advantage: Lakers.

Center - Nene vs. Bynum - Bynum’s size and athleticism will bother Nene, but Bynum’s tendency to foul will work to Nene’s strengths. If Bynum can wake up one day and be the player that he was in the regular season, L.A. has the advantage simply because they can play Gasol at PF for extended periods.

More likely, Bynum will struggle on defense, get into foul trouble, and L.A. will be forced to move Gasol to center and play Odom at PF. If this happens, Denver wins the overall matchup in the front court. Nene can almost play Gasol to a draw, and Odom will be a no-show against K-Mart. When you throw Chris Anderson into the mix, Denver ever so slightly edges out the Lakers when Bynum rides the pine. Still, if Bynum is able to stay on the floor and produce at a minimal level, Gasol moves to power forward and L.A. rolls. Advantage: Lakers (but not by much).

This series is all about Bynum. We know that Kobe will be dominant, and we know that Carmelo will be impossible for any of L.A.’s defenders to contain. We know that L.A. will likely forget to show up for a game or two, and we know that Denver is a better team defensively while L.A. is better offensively.

The question in this series is simple: Can Bynum produce? If Bynum can stay on the floor, Denver likely can’t prevail. Gasol at Power Forward is a difficult matchup for Denver that they won’t be able to compensate for. Still, Bynum riding the bench won’t mean an automatic win for the Nuggets. Nene and Chris Anderson will still need to contain Gasol while defensively as well as pressure him offensively and on the boards. That’s a tall order, but a combination of good physical defense from the Birdman and top-notch offense from Nene could put Gasol out of rhythm on offense and in foul trouble on defense.

Predictions:

• Chris Anderson will start at least one game in this series.
• Bynum will foul out twice.
• Odom will loose it and earn an ejection.
• Ditto K-Mart.
• Ditto J.R. Smith.
• Kobe will hit Dahntay Jones and the league will let it go.

Ultimately, I believe the Lakers win this series in 7 games. Denver’s front court isn’t deep enough to measure up against Bynum at Center and Gasol and power forward, and Kobe is killer in close games. Still, a 7 game series is close by definition. Any mis-steps by L.A. will have major implications.

Looking a little farther into the future (and assuming L.A. takes care of business), the Lakers had better watch out for Cleveland. The Cavs have the advantage in the frontcourt because of their superior defense, and Lebron vs. Kobe is simply too close to call. Home court usually wins, so you can put me down for the Cavs taking it all. It’s going to be fun!

Unfortunately, these days will be over soon. Kleiza’s days as a Nugget are coming to a close. The reasons?

• Chris Anderson - The Bird Man is playing out of his mind, and Denver’s only option will be to resign him. If Anderson continues to put up tremendous performances in playoff games, he might just demand the full mid-level. My guess is that Denver pays Anderson $10-12 million on a fully guaranteed 3 year deal. Considering how close the Nuggets are to exceeding the luxury tax threshold without Anderson’s new contract, Anderson’s gain is Kleiza’s loss.

• Kleiza has been over-hyped by his coach. Karl loves to talk about how versatile and dangerous L.K. can be, yet most of us haven’t seen it in this season. Sure, in years past L.K.’s presence was instrumental (Melo’s 15 game suspension back in the 06-07 season, subbing for K-Mart and Nene on and off for the last 3 seasons, etc.), but this year George Karl raised expectations for L.K. so much that he was bound to dissapoint.

• Kleiza is expendable. A lackluster season, combined with his disappearance during the playoffs, has proven that Linas isn’t needed. It’s unfortunate too - he’s a player that developed in Denver and he’s come up big in the past. If only the NBA wasn’t a business.

• Kleiza didn’t respond well to failed contract negotations. It’s human to be angry and depressed when someone backs off of a $20 million contract offer, but it’s not the best way to respond. Instead of playing poorly to open the season and threatening to go to Europe this year, Kleiza should have been playing as hard as he could have and making it hard for Denver to let him leave. It’s likely that there’s some bad blood all the way around.

The sad part is that Kleiza has the potential to be a 6th man on a good team. There are quite a few teams that could use a versatile bench player with size and three point range, but Denver isn’t one of them. The Nuggets are no longer in need of 3pt shooting with Melo, Billups, and J.R., and they’re no longer concerned with versatility because they have the under-rated Renaldo Balkman waiting in the wings (who’s only earning a couple of million a year).

My prediction: The Nuggets trade Kleiza just before the draft. That will give Kleiza’s new team a chance to extend him the qualifying offer (and therefore all the leverage in the salary negotiations). Kleiza will likely sign a deal for $15 million for 4 years, a fair salary for a bench player with potential.

Hopefully, the Nuggets will get something they need (Jeff Foster) in return.

• Billups vs. Kidd - This will come down to Billups being able to score in transition. Kidd is slow, and if he’s out of position because he’s trying to pull down a rebound, Billups is going to get an easy look. Since Billups matches Kidd in terms of playmaking, and since Kidd’s offense is pretty poor, Kidd needs to keep Billups from scoring a lot (like he did tonight) to win the matchup. Billups is the guy in this series, but it’s going to be close.

• Smith vs. Terry - At best, Terry will have a huge night and win a game by himself. At worst, he’ll match his regular season performances. Smith is likely to choke in at least one of the games in this series, so Terry will win the matchup overall. Too bad Denver’s Dahntay Jones will completely outplay Barea. The Nuggets win this matchup because their 2 guard tandem is better.

• Melo vs. Howard - I wouldn’t be surprised if Melo underwhelms in this series. The more I see him play in the playoffs, the more I think he’s not a franchise player. Still, he does demand a double team wherever he goes. That makes him the winner in this matchup against the above-average Josh Howard.

• Nowitzki vs. K-Mart - K-Mart clearly wasn’t ready for Nowitzki tonight, and I don’t think he’ll ever be able to bother Dirk the way he was able to bother David West in the last round. Dirk’s range is just too much for Kenyon. Still, I can’t help but think that Kenyon will adjust. My guess is that Dirk only has one more game where he’ll play as well as he did tonight, while Kenyon’s game performances will only get better as the series grinds on. Dirk wins this matchup hands down, but unfortunately for the Mavs Dirk’s best isn’t enough to win the series.

• Dampier vs. Nene - This is the key to the series. If Nene is aggressive and scores regularly, a lot of things will open up for Denver and the games won’t be too hard. On the other hand, if Damp can intimidate Nene (which he’s fully capable of doing), the games are going to be close. I think a close game is an advantage for Dallas, but as of now this matchup looks like Denver’s advantage to lose.

• The Benches - Denver’s bench begins and ends with Chris Anderson and Anthony Carter. These two were instrumental in Denver’s win today, and their veteran skills won’t dissapear on the road like the Mavs younger bench players Barea, Hollins, and Bass (yes I know Barea started, but he’s a bench player in my eyes). Still, I think team B.B.H. is going to be a handful in Dallas. The matchup favors Denver simply because Denver has home-court.

• The Coaches - I think Rick Carlisle has the advantage here. Karl’s a decent coach, but he’s been yelling and screaming at his team for years - the Nuggets tuned out Karl a long time ago. Carlisle, on the other hand, has the complete attention of his players. Carlisle will be a big part of the reason Dallas edges Denver in any close games, and he gives Dallas the edge here.

The prediction - Nuggets in 6.

Where does that leave Denver in the next round against the winner of the Lakers/Rockets? More on that later…