Housing starts nationally for June are down 5% which the media purports as bad news..but I say it’s really good. But the real facts are that single family starts aren’t down that much, which sounds good but I say it’s bad. Confused yet? Stick with me.

When the Census Bureau releases housing starts the media will grab that number and pronounce it good or bad, but they never tell you what that number means. A start is really a ground-breaking and includes homes of all types — single family, condos buildings, apartments, and multi-units housing. For June that number was down 5% from May. I don’t know about you, but I don’t really care if apartment and multi-unit starts are down. I know it may effect the overall economy but they don’t mean a whole lot to Mr. and Mrs. Seller down the street.

But the number gets reported in the news as a big drop so that must be a bad thing. Is it really? If there are fewer housing starts then there will be less inventory on the market. Less competition for the re-sale market who wants to make a move. So in my book, a big number might be a good thing. However, when that 5% number is dissected it turns out that the majority of it is in fact multi-unit housing.

The Real Housing Start Number

For June, Single-Family housing starts were only down 0.7 percent from May….essentially flat. That’s a good thing, right? We’ll it certainly says that builders are being very cautious and not carrying too much inventory. The more inventory on the market the more they have to offer incentives and the more the re-sale market has to try and compete with heavy builder incentives. What it really indicates is that new construction has stabilized now that the home buyer tax credits are behind us.

We still have a lot of inventory on the market. Across all price ranges we have about 10 months of inventory in North Fulton and 12 months of inventory in Forsyth County. A buyers market is defined as anything above 6 months of inventory so controlled construction and growth is a good thing in my book. The one constant in this market right now is that rates remain extremely low. While inventory levels aren’t going to change quickly - we don’t really know how long rates will remain at such historically low levels.

Anthem Homes

Three veteran builders; Gregg Goldenberg, Jon Roby and Thomas Olson have come together and founded Anthem Homes & Neighborhoods and plan to build 4 single-family homes and 4 attached garden homes in the Crabapple Crossing community. The product will be very close to the existing homes in both look and size. Anthem is currently building in Cobb, Forsyth, Gwinnett, Jackson, Fulton and Cherokee Counties and has a solid track record.

The Product

There are 2 options for the s ingle-family homes , which are both 4 bedroom / 3.5 bath homes with 2-car garages and come in a little under 3,000 Sq. Ft. All bedrooms will be upstairs. And the good news is the pricing will be in just under $350,000 . I’m sure this will be the last time we ever see new construction under $350k in North Fulton - and certainly in Crabapple.

The attached garden homes will also be 4 bedroom / 3.5 baths around 2800 Sq. Ft., with 2-car garages and priced just under $300,000 . One plan will have a master on the main, the other will have the master up. Both will have a bonus room and some room for potential expansion in the upstairs un-finished attic space.

Crabapple

The businesses in Crabapple continue to be a draw for residents around the area, with Scoops Ice Cream Shop as a new addition. Both the retail and residential will continue to feed off each other so I expect to see more growth in the coming months. For buyers who have purchased in the area recently - I think they got a great deal and will not only reap the benefits of price appreciation in the future, but will love living in the area too.

Let us know if you have any questions about the communities or available properties.

The number of developed lots in all of North Fulton that are under contract. That is out of a total of 205 available lots. Opportunity is knocking…

On the last day of each month I post a "Big Number" or interesting figure related to real estate in our area.

Subsequently T-Mobile had community meetings for questions and input regarding the towers. These meetings were opportunities for residents to ask questions about the designs of the towers, height, exact locations, etc. T-Mobile ran balloon tests so residents could actually see how high the towers would be and what would be visible above tree-tops.

NIMBY

There was an organized resistance by many residents who felt that cell towers ruined the rural charm of Milton. They also felt that cell phone towers posed a hazard to health due to radiation. And some questioned T-Mobile’s business need for additional towers in our area. Finally, the Milton City Council voted on April 26th to deny two of the property owners the right to place cell towers on their properties. The location on New Providence was approved with a 100′ restriction, rather than the original request of a 150′ tower.

The arguments & questions are obvious and understandable and have been hashed out on local Milton blogs and in the newspapers:
• If you are a property owner and meet the legal zoning requirements then why shouldn’t you be able to benefit / profit from your own land?
• Does the cell tower infringe on neighboring property owners?
• If it does, does it matter since zoning codes state towers are allowed there?
• And if an owner has the legal right to place something like a cell tower on their land - should the City Council be able to deny them the legal right to do that?
• How far can the City Council go to squash private property owner’s rights?
• Why is the council against private property owners?

It’s More Than Just Cell Towers

Now there is an additional factor that affects everyone in Milton regardless of their proximity to any potential cell tower sites. T-Mobile is planning to sue Milton to gain the rights to place towers on the other two properties AND place the tower on the approved property based on original plans. Just a few weeks ago, for similar reasons, T-Mobile sued the City of Roswell, stating that they violated the Telecommunications Act of 1996 on three counts, claiming the decision was not supported by substantial evidence, the city is prohibiting wireless service and the city is unreasonably discriminating among providers of functionally equivalent services. I don’t think T-Mobile is new to this and probably has considerably more experience in determining the viability of their lawsuit than the Milton City Council has.

Outcomes and Missed Opportunities

I understand why some people wouldn’t want to see a cell tower near their community, but it seems to me that we sacrificed quite a bit in the push to stop the towers.

1. First, we have a City Council that has shown no qualms about stepping on the private property rights of its residents - nobody should feel comfortable with that - I wonder what rights they will step on next when an angry group threatens them with their votes?
2. Second, we missed a chance to press T-Mobile to build towers that might be unobtrusive (painted brown, made to look like a tree, etc.), cutting off our nose so-to-speak. I suspect that if they win their lawsuit, they aren’t going to be inclined to satisfy any cosmetic requests we may have.
3. And finally, we all as taxpayers get to see our City Council spend our tax dollars defending a lawsuit they have no real grounds to defend - since our zoning laws allowed for cell towers on those properties.

What rights are you willing to give up for the concerns of the next group? Are the aesthetic concerns of the community more important than individual’s legal rights? When you vote for City Council Members in the future, ask yourself whose rights you want them to defend…or step on.

While most people are just curious, it’s also surprising how often I hear someone say “I hope it get’s delayed so my kid can go to Milton” . It seems to me that the new school will have the same demographic, same curriculum and many of the same students that would have gone to Milton. Granted, the sports and PTA organizations will have to start up from scratch, but I can’t imagine that the quality of education will be any different. Assuming that our children’s education is what is most important.

The school is still in the works, the money has been set aside and in place for construction. The Fulton County Board of Education has signed the contract with Parsons and Evergreen Construction and ground should break at the end of this month. The good news is that due to lower construction costs in the current market, the school will come in over $14 million dollars less than originally planned. Katie Reeves let me know that she has asked the Superintendent to set up a community meeting with Parsons & Evergreen to go over questions and timeline. At this time, the plan has not changed from having a project completion of summer 2012. Once we have this meeting completed we can all focus on the uproar to come…the R word. Redistricting - who’s in, who’s out and who cares….

Public schools are ranked according to the number of Advanced Placement, Intl. Baccalaureate and/or Cambridge tests taken by all students at a school and divided by the number of graduating seniors. All of the schools on the list have an index of at least 1.000; they are in the top 6 percent of public schools measured this way.

Note: Subs. Lunch % is the percentage of students receiving federally subsidized meals. E and E % stands for equity and excellence percentage: the portion of all graduating seniors at a school that had at least one passing grade on one AP or IB test.

** Includes IB. Nearly all other schools use just AP tests.

I’m just trying to stay as away of the trends in our area as I possible can. I wrote a post last month about the average sales price for homes in North Fulton West going up. I compared the sales for March 2009 to March 2010. Subsequently I reported on an AJC article regarding 4 zip codes in metro Atlanta that have had year-over-year increases in Sales Prices - 30004 was one of those zip codes.

I wasn’t ready to declare "mission accomplished", we have a long road out. But…there was a nice trend shaping up. Little things point to larger things. The tax credit increased sales numbers and, despite our school systems financial woes, our schools and quality of life continue to help demand for housing in North Atlanta. All the dots are forming a nice picture. Then I pull the year-over year numbers for North Fulton in May:

The Good News

We are selling more properties than a year ago. Considerably more in North Fulton East of 400 - thank you tax credit. The tax credit put buyers in the market that not only freed up sellers to move-up locally, but relo traffic into North Atlanta has increased as well. Also, homes are selling faster on average than last year.

The not-so-good news

Needless to say I wasn’t expecting to see a decrease in the average sales price year-over-year. So, I took a look at a chart showing the average sales price for residential detached homes in Metro Atlanta for the past 10 years. 2010 is only current in this chart to April. What I noticed is a dip in the average sales price every April or May. Usually in April but it occurred in May of 01′ and 05′.

Why? To be honest, I have no idea. It’s a strange fluctuation that happens fairly consistently each April or May, but I don’t know why. In three of the past 10 years there was no dip (03′, 06′ and 09′). So does that mean we aren’t on track? Are we still improving? I think the the answer is that the the little things still point to bigger things. The direction is positive but the trip will take a while. It’s too soon to ask "Are we there yet".

Months worth of inventory of homes over $1M in North Fulton West of 400. 98 currently active, 40 sold over the past 12 months.

[second correction....I have no idea what I was thinking....or maybe I wasn't thinking at all. Thanks for reading ; ) ]

On the last day of each month I post a "Big Number" or interesting figure related to real estate in our area.

Some how I missed the proposed budget for this project but my understanding is that the money is already set aside for DOT projects and it’s only a question of getting approval for this particular plan. Of course, I’m biased, but I think something like this is exactly what Downtown Alpharetta needs, it’s just too bad it wasn’t coinciding with the once -proposed City Center.

The improvements will include

• Two travel lanes in each direction
• A raised median
• Additional turn lanes
• Improved intersections
• Reconfigured side roads
• Traffic and pedestrian signal upgrades
• Sidewalk and bicycle lanes as well as other safety and operational improvements

The proposed project intends to provide a continuous roadway through the entire corridor but sidewalks and bike paths will be intermittent throughout the entire project. There will be 11-foot travel lanes, a 17-foot raised grass landscaped median, 4-foot bicycle lanes in each direction, 11.5-foot shoulders with curb and gutter, 2 -foot landscape strip and 5-foot sidewalks.

The unfortunate aspect is that with projects this large, the results will be a long way off. If approved the project will start in 2013 with right-of-ways and the bulk of the project will be done in 2014. This is a project that will make the downtown Alpharetta area more pedestrian and bicycle friendly - a huge plus for residents and downtown businesses alike.

As you can see from the artists rendering, there will be street benches, ornamental roadway lighting and better signage. This all goes towards improving our city and creating a sense of place for Downtown Alpharetta. Let us know what you think about this project or other improvements the City isn’t focusing on.

The market here in Alpharetta / Milton has certainly stabilized. Zip code 30004 made the number 2 position in the top 4 Metro Atlanta zip codes for year-over-year increases. Griffin, in Spalding County (30223) saw a 3.35% increase, followed by Alpharetta / Milton’s (30004) 2.48% rise. Smyrna (30080) came in at 2.25% and Suwanee in Forsyth County (30024) rounded out the top 4 at 1.16%

This data confirms that our market has turned the corner, but we’ve been seeing other signs of this for a few months now. Things are loosening up in other markets, allowing home sellers elsewhere to become buyers here. Some of those buyers took a ‘hit’ on the sale of their homes and are coming here looking to do the same. What they are finding is that in areas like North Atlanta, where good schools and quality of life create demand and price increases, they can’t get what they perceive is a good deal.

There are plenty of places around Metro Atlanta where you can still negotiate hard and get something for pennies on the dollar. But if you are narrowing your search to a specific city, or certain schools, then the general market conditions for the Metro area no longer may apply.

Sellers here have long since adjusted their sales prices and for the most part, homes on the market in this area are priced correctly. Sellers are negotiating but not selling for 85% of asking price. In fact, many are getting close to 95% of current asking prices - but keep in mind these prices are off of the 2006 highs by about 18%. We are still far from a sellers market and buyers do have a lot to choose from, however, the homes that are in great shape and priced right are selling quickly. Buyers who don’t realize this end up missing out.

So with this good news there should be more cheering out there. Maybe the psyche of sellers and buyers are lagging the data. But rest assured, as we continue to get good economic data on our market, housing will continue to get more and more competitive in areas like the top 4 zip codes mentioned. When good foreclosures do show up, there will be multiple offers. So, if you are buying right now, evaluate comps in the past 90 to 120 days - anything older than that is old news.