We tend to be more aggressive when we consider a land a ‘battlefield’ that we are supposed to win. Something similar has happend to North Korea. The cluelessness of the world community stems from their restlessness regarding how to swiftly open North Korea and start exploiting the ‘virgin’ land. Most of the pundits of international relations are occupied modelling a collapse of North Korean regime, its induction in the world ‘economy’ (mind you, not ‘society’ but ‘economy’), and introduction of market based economic structure (something, as we are witnessing today, that has put millions out of their homes and future prospects). What motivation do we think North Korea would have seeing all the mess that non-North Korean world is creating?

It would be far more constructive if the world community can demonstrate successful cases of transformation of the exploited or challenged societies. We should realize that a failure in Iraq, Afghanistan, Darfur and the likes would do no good but has a prospect of leaving a permanent stain on our qualification as a civilized world.

But what is surely reliable is that the rest of the world has not been able to bring this fragile regime to the ground – at least so far. Seems the NK regime is aware of the fact that the rest of the world would never be ‘logically’ united enough for any meaningful actions, as evident in BBC’s HARDtalk two days ago where Gregory Schulte, the US ambassador to the IAEA, was unable to articulate a direct answer to Stephen Sackur’s question on why India and why not Iran and other nuclear powers. Those frail answers and logics certainly send wrong messages to the regimes like NK’s.

Currently, we all are flirting with the speculations over North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il‘s health. Rumours are that he is seriously ill/ dead/no longer in control of the regime etc. etc. as he failed to appear at not only the military parade celebrating the country’s 60th birthday but also on Chusoek celebration which are significant events. 

Amidst these speculations, Hwang Jang Yup, former secretary of North Korean Workers’ Party commented (blog site http://www.chogabje.com) :

김정일의 건강에 이상이 있다고 해서 북한에 당장의 큰 변화는 없을 것이다. 김정일의 건강에 이상이 있다고 해서 당장에 긴급사태가 일어나는 것처럼 생각하는 것 자체가 북한을 잘 모르는데서 나온 주장이다. 적과 싸우는 와중에도 상대방이 아프면 예의를 갖추는 것이 기본인데 김정일이 아프다고 해서 지금처럼 떠드는 것은 정정당당하게 싸워서 이길 생각은 없고, 요행수만 바라는 경박한 행동이다 (Kim Jong Il’s health problem is not going to change anything in North Korea. Those who think that this health problem would result in a crisis in the North basically have no idea about North Korea. In case of illness, it is basic to show respect even to the enemy; just because Kim Jong Il is sick, in the absense of a fair fight, wishing for a victory simply shows immaturity).

설사 김정일이 죽는다고 해도 북한의 명맥을 장악하고 있는 중국이 자신들의 절실한 이해관계로 인해 북한의 혼란을 절대로 방치하지 않을 것이라며 탈북자들은 현재의 상황에 너무 큰 기대를 하지 말고 맡겨진 일을 열심히 하면 된다 (Even if Kim Jong Il dies, China that holds the lifeline of the North would not allow any chaos to prevail in North Korea. Defectors should not have high hopes from the current situation and must continue their work as usual).

중국은 북한을 제발 먹어달라고 제사를 지내도 먹지 않을 것이다. 북한을 민주화하기 위해서는 앞을 내다보고 중국과의 관계개선에 노력을 기울여야 한다 (China will not take over the North even if North Korea requests for it.  In order to democratize the North, an inclination to improve relationship with China is needed).

Reacting to the above mentioned opinion of Hwang Jang Yup with reference to China, one netizen writes:

역사상 중국이 한반도를 먹어 버릴 기회는 수 없이 많았다. 왜 대만,몽골등 수많은 이민족과 영토를 먹어 치우면서도 한반도를 놔둔 이유를 우리는 잘 모른다. 흔히 한국인들의 현실적인 사대외교로 해서 중국이 먹을 이유가 없었다고 말하는 설이 가장 설득력이 있다. 황위원장의 말이 뜻하는 바가 뭔지를 모르지만, 그러한 맥락이 아닐까 생각된다.조선을 먹으면 바로 일본과 미국과 대치하게 되는 것이 그리 바람직하지 않다고 생각하는게 아닐까? (Historically, China has had many chances to take over Korean Peninsula. We don’t know why China left Korean Peninsula untouched whereas it swallowed many minorities and land like Taiwan and Mongolia. The best explanation for why Korea was left untouched can be sought in the pragmatic foreign policy of Korea. I don’t know what Mr. Hwang means but I think he could be wrong. Swallowing North Korea would mean coming in direct confrontation with Japan and the US, and that is surely not desirable).

Now that NK has categorically stated that it no longer wishes to be delisted as a state sponsor of terrorism and that it can go its own way and resume nuclear program, it would be interesting to see what comes next.

The US has recently decided, never too late, that before removing North Korea from the terror list, it would varify the nuclear declaration by Pyongyang. In my interpretation, this shows that amidst all hoo-haa about the success of six-party talks, the US does realize that a ‘rational’ Kim Jong-Il should not give away his aces without ensuring proportionate gains – in this case compounded gains; and so, an honest and kind compliance of North Korea to whatever international community wants should be seen with utmost alertness.

I am tempted to restate that North Korean regime is far more proficient in diplomacy than anyone else – that too despite all its limitations- and knows well that its perceived status is different from that of countries like Zimbabwe, Iran or so.

Why did the title strike me in this context? Why do I sense an arrival of unpredicted demise of ‘axis of evil’ list in near future? …. I wonder…

Through my five-star suite-like big window I see the drizzle amidst some dark clouds over Rotterdam, and suddenly CNN chirps about the historic breakthrough in North Korean talks. I smile and decide to go to kitchen to make some ‘insam cha’ (Ginseng tea) before stretching on the sofa in front of TV as this kind of news can not be appreciated with any other drink.

What comes to my mind is not ‘wow’ but ‘hmmmm’ as if I was kind of aware of and awaiting this sort of news in near future. No, not the news of North Korea’s belated document delivery on weapons program but on the news that finally the US found a pretext to take North Korea off the list. And there are simple reasons for why the US desperately needs that.

First, with the passage of time, North Korea has become an icon of helplessness of the most potent powers in the world. In the pre-Iraq and pre-Afghanistan phase, people still had some illusions about the power and its ability in magic cure for the ‘problem’. Current situation paints a very different picture. Thus, seemingly it is important for the Bush Administration to come up with some projected success on this front – no matter how unreal or shallow.

Second, the US realizes that now it does not hold all the aces. Sanction, containment, international pressure – more specifically by some of the most powerful nations in the world via Six-Party Talks have failed to really reap any sweet fruits as expected due to the in-built characteristics of international politics. It surely is the time to take two steps back before making a fresh move as the present war chaos and frail economic mould do not encourage for any additional adventure.

Third and probably the most important, is that the policies are being formulated by those who are ‘unable’ to take an objective look at the situation. Most of the scholars and policy makers, in one way or the other, have been engaged in Korean affairs with some pinch of bias. North Korean issue is in serious need of neo-pragmatic approach.

North Korea is not an abnormal state nor are its actions. History books give us many names that have had similarities. But as the times have changed, we need to refrain from using the same stale carrot and stick. We all understand what we want, but what we do not try to understand is what North Korea regime wants. I am just wondering if we have ever thought why Dear Leader Kim Jong Il would ever compromise with the terms and conditions imposed by the international community.

I have my doubts about the real reason behind dismentaling that so-called nuclear structure with big show and what documents will the international community be getting. I would be highly surprised if North Korea honestly closes down its nuclear program for its entry in the global club.