Meteorologists like Joe Bastardi are closely monitoring a dramatic interplay high above the Northern Hemisphere – namely an exceptionally strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific coinciding with a massive Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. Their simultaneous occurrence creates an unusual atmospheric setup that could fundamentally reshape Europe’s coming winter.

Polar wind reversal

To understand what this atmospheric doubleheader means for the continent, we need to look miles above the Arctic Circle. Under normal winter conditions, a tight ring of high-speed westerly winds known as the stratospheric polar vortex traps bitter Arctic cold safely within the high latitudes. During a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, temperatures high in the stratosphere rise dramatically over the course of just a few days, weakening or completely reversing those polar winds.

The next 2 to 6 weeks

Over the following two to six weeks, this high-altitude disruption will trickle down into the weather layers below. The result is often high-pressure blocking over Greenland or Scandinavia. When such blocks form, the mild, moist winds coming off the Atlantic Ocean get blocked and open the way for a direct channel for arctic or continental air masses to flow out of Siberia and the Arctic Circle straight into Northern and Central Europe. Historically, events like the “Beast from the East” in 2018 were driven by this exact atmospheric mechanism.

Enhancer El Nino 

Adding a powerful El Niño to this equation introduces a second major force. El Niño warms the equatorial Pacific, releasing massive amounts of heat into the atmosphere and altering the position of the jet stream thousands of miles away. Crucially, El Niño enhances the giant atmospheric waves that travel upward into the stratosphere, frequently preconditioning the polar vortex for a sudden breakdown.

Europe: increased probability of prolonged intense cold and snow

When these two forces merge, Europe is likely to experience a stark atmospheric divide. For Northern, Central, and Eastern Europe, the stratospheric breakdown remains the dominant player, sharply increasing the probability of prolonged freezing spells, intense frost, and snow. Meanwhile, Southern Europe and the Mediterranean face a very different winter under the southern storm track, marked by frequent low-pressure systems bringing heavy rains, strong winds, and significant mountain snowfall.

Odds tilted toward a severe, prolonged winter freeze

Where these two contrasting air masses meet—often across a swath stretching from northern France through Germany and Poland—a high-conflict weather zone can emerge. These boundaries frequently trigger severe winter storms capable of producing heavy snowfall, freezing rain, and ice storms. Moreover, with global ocean temperatures remaining elevated, Arctic air crossing the warmer waters of the Baltic and North Seas could pick up extra moisture, delivering heavier localized snow events along coastal regions than a standard cold outbreak might produce.

Blocking high position as the key factor

Several critical variables will ultimately determine whether this atmospheric potential translates into a historic freeze on the ground. The most decisive factor is the positioning of the Scandinavian high-pressure system. If the blocking high parks directly over Scandinavia, Central and Northern Europe will bear the brunt of the cold as Arctic air sweeps uninterrupted across the continent. However, if that high pressure shifts even a few hundred miles to the west over the Atlantic, the Arctic air could easily miss Western and Central Europe entirely.

Ultimately, while the combination of a strong El Niño and a major stratospheric warming heavily tilts the odds toward a severe, prolonged winter freeze, the exact geographic placement of the high-pressure block remains the single element that dictates which regions face deep sub-zero temperatures and which experience only a routine winter chill.

 Heightened Europe energy volatility

Germany’s gas reserves are starting winter at extremely low levels, leaving virtually no margin for error during cold spells. If winter brings a prolonged Arctic cold snap driven by a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, daily gas withdrawal rates will spike sharply. Without a robust cushion in underground storage, sudden increases in demand will trigger sharp market panic and drive short-term energy prices up exponentially overnight.

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But two new studies indicate:

The TG would continue melting for another 150 years even if the CDW stopped warming or even cooled, as a warming CDW does not drive TG melt (Williams et al., 2026).

A belief that governmental policy choices or atmospheric CO2 concentrations control either deepwater temperatures or TG melt cannot be supported.

Image Source: Williams et al., 2026

A companion study (Damini et al., 2026) quantifies the “significant” regional CDW warming catastrophically melting West Antarctica glaciers amounts to just 0.1°C from the 1990s to 2010s. A -0.1°C cooling trend is also regionally present, offsetting the warming.

These authors do not suggest humans are warming the deepwater around Antarctica by enhancing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, but that warming (and cooling) have been ~100% “driven by wind-forced circulation changes.”

Image Source: Damini et al., 2026

Viehmann argues that labeling electric vehicles (EVs) as completely “zero-emission” is misleading. While EVs do not have a tailpipe, their carbon footprint depends heavily on how the electricity used to charge them is generated—especially since fossil-fuel plants often supply power during high-demand nighttime and evening hours.

Extracting the raw materials that are needed to build the cars, especially the batteries, is far from being friendly to the environment.

E-cars fall far short of true climate neutrality

Citing research from KIT (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) and a study from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) that anayzed 19 studies and 47 scenarios, the FOCUS article notes that battery-electric vehicles typically reduce CO2 emissions by only about 41% compared to combustion engines, falling far short of true climate neutrality. E cars

Viehmann also criticizes the EU’s regulatory approach of measuring emissions solely at the tailpipe, arguing that this political focus creates a distorted picture, allegedly supported by lobbying efforts to force the mass adoption of electric cars.

““This ‘tailpipe’ approach by the EU, i.e., measuring emissions only at the exhaust pipe, was always nonsense and can only be explained by the EU wanting to politically push the electric car and even paying lobby organizations like ‘Transport & Environment’ to influence MPs,” Viehmann writes.

The FOCUS author concludes that eliminating EVs is not the solution, as they still significantly reduce emissions. However, the author calls for a more honest and open approach, suggesting that alternative non-fossil fuels (like e-fuels or HVO) should be promoted for combustion engines, and that EU climate targets for the transport sector may need to be adjusted to realistic levels to prevent the economic dismantling of the European automotive industry.

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1990

Following the early reports by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), Latif and broader climate modeling pointed toward significant, continuous increases in greenhouse gas emissions and a projected global temperature rise of several degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century if human behavior remained unchanged.

Verdict: remains wild speculation

1997

Latif discussed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño on regional weather, predicting that Europe would face freezing, harsh winters lasting for up to two decades due to a shift to a negative phase of the NAO.

Verdict: wrong. German winters have been more or less mild since 1997,

2006

Continuing insights from his work at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR / Max Planck Institute framework), Prof. Latif focused heavily on how natural ocean variability interacts with global warming.

The primary consequence he emphasized during this period was significant decadal climate shifts in the North Atlantic and European sectors. Specifically, he pointed out that internal ocean oscillations could temporarily alter regional climate baselines—modulating temperatures and driving shifting phases of relative regional cooling or weather anomalies that can temporarily mask the underlying, long-term global warming trend.

Verdict: partrially correct

2008

In a landmark study published in Nature (led by Noel Keenlyside with Latif as a co-author), researchers factored natural ocean cycles in the North Atlantic into decadal climate predictions. The study forecasted a temporary pause or slight cooling in global surface temperatures for the subsequent decade (up to roughly 2015) due to shifting ocean circulation patterns, even while re-emphasizing that long-term anthropogenic warming would inevitably resume afterward.

Verdict: correct, but warming since 2015 has not proven to be man-made.

2009

Amid heightened public debate leading up to the Copenhagen Climate Summit, Latif warned of severe long-term scenarios (50 years) if global emissions continued unabated. These included extreme heatwaves with local summer temperatures potentially reaching up to 50 °C in certain regions, tropical-like precipitation extremes, and long-term sea-level rise that would fundamentally threaten natural ecosystems and biodiversity:

“In extreme cases, we are talking about temperatures—perhaps not in the north, but in the south and east of the republic [Germany]—of up to 50 degrees.”

Verdict: remains wild speculation

In summary, and ironically, the predictions he made based on natural climate cycles were pretty much correct. But the cliams of a man-made warming are not materializing.

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New research indicates there has been “cooling of the Pacific sector on decadal timescales during 1940-2020,” including robust cooling reaching -0.4°C per decade from 2005-2019 (even “exceeding -0.9°C per decade during 2005-2010”).

“…observations find a significant cooling of the South Pacific Ocean during 1979-2013”

“…cooling of the Pacific sector on decadal timescales during 1940-2020 in the reanalysis data”

“Sea surface temperature has been decreasing in the southwest Pacific Ocean since 1979, where the cooling has reached -0.9°C per decade during 2005-2010.”

“The warming trend in the Indian sector reaches 0.2°C per decade, and the cooling trend in the Pacific sector reaches -0.4°C per decade during 2005-2019.”

Pacific Ocean cooling is not just confined to the near surface, but also to the deep ocean.

“We further suggest that the Pacific cooling is robust from the surface to the deep, and can even reach the intermediate ocean up to 1500 m rather than being limited to the mixed layer.”

“The cooling trend is also significant in the deep 1000 m, reaching -0.2°C per decade.”

Image Source: Ni et al., 2026

According to a report by Blackout News, the renowned porcelain manufacturer Kahla in Thuringia is shutting down its operations for good on December 31, 2026.

Despite months of rescue efforts and political backing, the combination of soaring energy bills and a sluggish market has brought a 182-year legacy to a close.

Energy unaffordable

Porcelain manufacturing relies on massive amounts of energy to run kilns at temperatures exceeding 1,000 degrees Celsius. In recent months, Kahla faced monthly gas bills ranging between €150,000 and €180,000, totaling up to €2.16 million annually. Unable to fully pass these costs on to consumers facing their own economic pressures, the business model collapsed.

Following an insolvency filing earlier in the year, insolvency administrator Rolf Rombach spent months negotiating with potential investors—including parties from Turkey. Even with intervention and support from the Thuringian state government and Minister President Mario Voigt, no investor could present a financially viable plan to keep the plant alive.

96 Jobs Lost

The closure leaves the remaining 96 employees without jobs. Management began winding down production in late September and is processing remaining orders gradually, leading to staggered layoffs rather than an overnight cutoff.

News of the final shutdown sparked a wave of solidarity and nostalgia among consumers. The company’s online store was temporarily overwhelmed by a massive rush of last-minute orders as people scrambled to buy pieces of the iconic brand before it disappears forever.

Founded in 1844, Kahla grew into a powerhouse during the Communist East Germany era before restructuring in 1994 following German reunification. After surviving a previous insolvency in 2020, this second major financial crisis has proven insurmountable.

The closure of Kahla Porzellan highlights the severe challenges energy-intensive manufacturers face in maintaining domestic production amid sustained high operating costs.

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An inconvenient  new study published in Nature Communications highlights the double-bind consequences of maintaining the view that humans fundamentally control the global climate. This paradigm incentivizes scientists to publish studies that insist humans simultaneously cause both warming and cooling, flooding and drought, glacier retreat and advance, etc., with our everyday activities.

The inevitable and consistent conclusion inherent in most of these studies is that governmental policymaking is the key variable determining climate outcomes.

It is now commonly believed that humans fundamentally control the temperature of the air and ocean primarily by (1) increasing or reducing the atmospheric CO2 concentration, or by (2) increasing or reducing the air pollution (aerosols, particulates) associated with industrialization and energy consumption.

The authors of this study assert that the net climate sensitivity to a 24 ppm decrease in atmospheric CO2 by 2070 – achieved via China’s transition to “net zero” emissions alone – is just -0.03°C ±0.09°C.

This figure is derived by assuming that the global cooling alleged to be produced by a 24 ppm CO2 reduction over the next 50 years, -0.16°C, is almost completely offset by the global warming, +0.12°C, derived from China’s ongoing (successful) air pollution reduction policies during this same time period.

“The global warming from air pollutant reductions can largely offset the climate cooling benefit of CO2 reduction even by around 2060, when net-zero CO2 emissions are reached. The combined global effect is an insignificant cooling of -0.03K ±0.09K.”

Succinctly, the authors assert reducing anthropogenic emissions (both CO2 and aerosols, particulates) causes both cooling and warming simultaneously, and thus they effectively offset or cancel each other out. Ambitious CO2 reduction policies, such as the pursuit of “net zero” CO2 emissions in the coming decades, have almost no effect on climate “for half a century”.

“Even aggressive climate policies like carbon neutrality are not sufficient to cool the planet by ~2070 due to the competing effect of air pollutant reduction.”

So what is achieved by pursuing wildly expensive government-sponsored decarbonization policies? If these calculations are to be believed, a three-one-hundredths of a degree change in global temperature. So, zero.

Image Source: Zhao et al., 2026

These Actual Facts Do Not Correlate With the Hottest Month Manipulated Averages the Government is Trying to Feed You!”

– Climate Change – the Scam

Many of the heat records occurred decades ago and still hold.

Many were set in the 1880s, 1930s, 1950s and 1980s.

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Europe’s green energies refuse to perform. Image by NoTricksZone using Grok AI. 

A major problem was the high solar expansion across the Iberian Peninsula, which today means thousands of megawatts of solar power hit the grid simultaneously during peak sunny hours. This oversupply causes wholesale electricity prices to drop to zero or into negative territory precisely when the plant’s production is highest, drastically reducing expected revenue.

Moreover, the solar park consistently produced less electricity than originally calculated in initial forecasts, which undermined the project’s financial projections despite having a long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA).

The huge solar park also suffered several technical failures, including inverter fires within the 12 months leading up to insolvency. A major fire in late May 2026 knocked out roughly 10% of the facility, taking an estimated 8 to 14 weeks to repair and leading to costly downtime and maintenance fees.

As a capital-intensive project, the solar park carried significant remaining debt (tens of millions of euros) owed to primary lenders like Investec and Kommunalkredit Austria. Ongoing fixed costs (maintenance, insurance, interest) became unmanageable as refinancing deadlines approached.

Another factor is that the operating company faces an ongoing arbitration dispute with Chinese contractor CTIEC (China Triumph International Engineering), which claims approximately €143 million from a cancelled construction contract.

The holding company, WElink Energy Portugal 2 (UK) Limited, entered insolvency administration on June 11, 2026, though the solar plant itself continues to generate electricity.

To survive the price collapses, WElink planned to transform the site into a hybrid facility with wind power and a 100 MW battery storage system. Ironically, while the original solar park was touted as subsidy-free, the new battery system is backed by €16.45 million in public funding from Portugal’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR).

Report24 argues that “free solar energy” does not equal economically viable power. Capital costs, timing of generation, grid stability, and price cannibalization pose severe financial risks for massive, un-subsidized solar installations.

In summary, Europe’s green energy revolution is going the way of communism: lots of rosy promises turning into an economic debacle. Collapse is inevitable.

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Warns of severe economic and social consequences.

Screenshot Apollo News. 

Loss of competitiveness

Vahrenholt warns of deindustrialization and a potential destabilizing loss of competitiveness. High energy costs and policy-driven phase-outs of reliable baseload power (such as nuclear and coal) are pricing German industry out of global markets.

Key industrial sectors (chemicals, manufacturing, steel) are relocating capital and production abroad, leading to structural economic decline.

Vahrenholt points out that energy supply risks, particularly gas storage levels and grid stability, remain precarious entering the upcoming winter period. “We will soon feel it this winter,” Vahrenholt warns.

Relying heavily on volatile renewable sources (wind and solar) without sufficient backup storage or baseload generation creates grid vulnerability and potential supply bottlenecks.

Global divergence in energy strategy

While Germany has phased out nuclear energy, major industrial powers like China, the United States, and several European neighbors are expanding nuclear energy and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) to power future technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) and heavy manufacturing.

Germany’s unilateral approach places it at a competitive and technological disadvantage relative to global rivals. “The energy transition is not a transition, but a retreat. Anyone who shuts down progress shuts down the future,” Vahrenholt told Apollo News.

Advocactes nuclear energy re-entry

Vahrenholt argues that returning to nuclear energy is essential for securing cheap, low-emission, and continuous energy supplies necessary to preserve prosperity and tech leadership. “Germany has not only shut down reactors, but destroyed the promise of the future for coming generations—while China and America compete over AI leadership and industrial power.”

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