npthinking

Left and Right, but where is the Center?

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Wed, 26 Dec 2012 15:59:00 +0000

S&D Group President Hannes Swoboda said:

"Monti as next Italian President could be a good choice. But let first Italians choose between right and left politics.”

My comment:

Left and right politics? Where are the centrist ones, in Europe in general?

Once upon a time I used to think/hope that ELDR/ALDE member parties were close to being centrist. An MEP candidate with The Liberals, an ELDR member new party in Greece, in 1999, I thought I had found the centrist home I had missed since the demise of the EDIK party after the 1977 elections (I was 15 then but my father was a voter of EDIK). I soon found out that although there were centrist people in the party, it was albeit more dominated mostly by libertarians including ones that argued that taxation was theft and admired Thatcher and Ronald Reagan!!! More recently, I have come to realise that the Liberal Democrats in the UK and even more so the Dutch VVD and the German FDP were not really centrist. Although especially in the UK's LibDems there is a definite centrist element that was in my opinion frustrated by the Tories-LibDems coalition.

It is convenient for political party game theory for voters to have to choose between left and right ideologies, agendas and policies. But it is the center that has the natural ability to address real people's needs and problems by choosing the right policies without left vs right dogmas and prejudices. It is no surprise that many voters auto-label themselves as centrist or middle of the road. If credible centrist parties existed, they would break those voters' "left vs right" dilemma.

So the issue remains: Who expresses the centrist POV at EU and at EU member states' level? Or the US.

PS. Of course there is a slight difference between middle of the road and centrism, but in practical terms it's kind of a detail.

2012 Review: US vs EU models (dreams vs quality of life)

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Fri, 21 Dec 2012 15:45:00 +0000

Even in 2012, US and EU systemics point to:

US best to pursue your dreams, EU best for quality of life.

In 2012, quality of life in the EU27 took a further beating and the European Social Model (with its variations) is under threat, with the "excuse" of austerity. As I have pointed out before, various private sector interests are eyeing the "filet" and other parts of the EU27 health "market"/pie, encouraged, inter alia, by the block of the Obamacare public option in the US in the first 2 years of the Obama admin.

The US, in spite of the continuing bureaucratization of US life and economy (to some extent one could label it, Europization), by comparison to EUrope, the US continues to be a better place for one to pursue one's business, tech, entrepreneurial, artistic, sports, etc dreams, and succeed or fail (and wind up even homeless) when doing so (hence the relative absence of safety nets compared to EUrope).

In 2013?

2013: What the times call for is for governments to ...

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Fri, 21 Dec 2012 13:35:00 +0000

Topic (summary):

What the times call for is for governments to get their act together and govern, via better planned and implemented policies.

Topic (introduction):

In countries such as the UK, one has seen a rise in voters and parties that are anti-Brussels and increasingly anti-Whitehall, in a way resembling the Tea Party ideology and dynamics. They challenge the role of the state as well as of governments.

How can this dynamic be addressed? In my opinion, what the times call for is for governments to get their act together and govern, via better planned and implemented policies. Policies that address the real issues faced by citizens in their daily lives, in policy/comprehensive ways not in theoretical or crisis management manner. There is an urgent need for better public policy rather than PR/image making by governments and political parties.

My reference sample is the EU27 (EU and national levels) and the US, two regions I monitor closely.

From my personal diary; Thinking is hard work

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 23:43:00 +0000

Two people in real life today impressed by my argumentation skills. A result of many years of experience. thinking and practice online.

I always had a "talent' for argumentation. I won prizes in Impromptu Speaking in English as early as high school. I used my argumentation skills when discussing complex issues in policy committees at a European organisation in Brussels.

But I developed my ability to say/argument/syllogise on policy, business and many other issues, only in the last 10 years, after intensive daily monitoring of world developments, reading, watching films, hard systemic/analytical and creative thinking and practicing the ability to put those in action, to argument in a way that is both meaningful and "catchy", via years of training in online forums and in the last three years, on Twitter.

Now I have it down to a skill that I can deploy day in, day out, as a Twitter/blogpost follower and real life friend recently observed.

Is that a skill that is market needed?

Not sure. Not applying for politician jobs. Maybe it even gets in the way of me being appealing for a think tank/research and analysis job. Maybe.

Will get back to you on that one.

PS. What the friend noted the other day (recently) is that the point I make after all this hard work, are a) to a larhe extent "pre-produced"/"pre-thought" as in "pre-cooked" and b) that they are appealing or even funny/humorous but they contain much essence, Yeap, that is the "product" I work hard for years to develop!

Lobbying is so 20th century

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 23:10:00 +0000

The analysis of the effect of public policies on the strategy of companies is a key task of public/EU affairs and an often missed (undervalued) dimension of Corporate Strategy. There is a need for closer ties between public/corporate affairs and corporate strategy.

That is the key value of public/EU affairs imo, not "lobbying". And second is engagement in public opinion debate. Hence there must be much closer links of public/EU affairs with a) Corporate Strategy b) Communications (via old and new media).

Plus, EU Affairs is EU27 Affairs, not Brussels and Strasbourg Affairs.

End of what?

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Sun, 09 Dec 2012 02:37:00 +0000

Now I am puzzled! Which will come first? a) end of the world b) end of euro c) end of Monti's government?

A serious fundamental flaw of the EU single market

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Sat, 08 Dec 2012 14:31:00 +0000

Language inter alia prevents the EU27 from being a single market for advertising. And that is a serious fundamental flaw for a single market and an entity like an EU.

The key to the EU and its single market

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Sat, 08 Dec 2012 14:14:00 +0000

The key to the EU single market and the EU in general is making SMEs and people feel at home in "it". Has not happened yet.

And I do not mean just trade of goods or freedom of capital movement.

The Euro was/is an element of a single market and a single "space", not a goal in itself or the tool for bankers and central bankers (and speculators) it became. After all is said and done German/BuBa and their European disciples' philosophy undermined the Euro via the inflation obsessed policy allowed and its impact on the Euro exchange rate and hence its trade balance with the rest of the world. The EU/Euroland is inter alia a victim of China exports more than the US and a more "fortress Europe" Eu or Euroland will not happen (for better or worse) because certain European interests will not allow it.

Competitiveness: In search of balance?

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Sat, 08 Dec 2012 13:38:00 +0000

Everyone (almost) understands that a consistent deficit in trade undermines an economy and eventually a state.

Look at Greece.

But also look at the UK, France and the US, some of the world mature yet champions of trade deficits economies in the world. Can they consistently make up their trade deficits via borrowing no matter how attractive they try to be for foreign investors (look at eg the UK)?

But is exporting "beggar thy neighbour" after all? Are too export driven economies not that stable after all? Look at Germany and China for example.

It is about a dynamic balance after all?

Euro Fringe

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Sat, 08 Dec 2012 02:18:00 +0000

Life in the Euro Fringe is not much less weird than life in the Fringe US TV series.

Mittelstand

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Sat, 08 Dec 2012 02:01:00 +0000

Along with the advantages and management/business/policy techniques of complex goods manufacturing ..

Is German Mittelstand under-studied by US, European and international business gurus?

Merkelian logics

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 02:28:00 +0000

Merkel's Euro policies qualify for a saying: It's all German to me (compare with the origin of the original saying).

In other words, "Europe" is not "speaking" German, as Volker Kauder of the CDU hoped/argued/boasted at a CDU conference one year ago.

Note: He meant German (CDU) policies not German per se.

Btw, Merkel today said that she does not rule out another CDU-SPD coalition after next year's elections. With FDP doing the way it is, of course not.

Scylla or Charybdis in modern economics

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 01:57:00 +0000

National oligarchs or international oligarchs and corporate and other bureaucrats? Scylla or Charybdis? Where/who is "Ulysses"?

Oligarchs or free grazers? I remember a Kevin Costner cowboy movie on this type of dilemma!

11 day (fin) virus

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 01:53:00 +0000

I feel selectively de-faulted tonite.

I hear it lasts 11 days.

No antibiotics needed, doc said.

Management and HRM: Chains, links and what's wrong with biz/work/econ systemics today!

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 01:48:00 +0000

Rough day at the dentist and then electric fuse blew when I returned to the flat where staying temp and not feeling at home in. What a day! But the building owners' rep energised her wits and local connections when I called her, so the fuse that was busted, the one at the basement, not the flat, was fixed very quickly!

She's a master of her work. Gotta love that!

Which brings me to the point of this post:

People who master the work they do in diverse and somewhat complete ways make life for all of us better! Kudos! She has been doing this work for years but I know many who do a job for many years yet still too "casually". They make our lives worse off, I propose.

People have to try to master the work they do out of respect for themselves, their job & the people involved. No room for zombies in management and workplaces today.

What I am saying is that no job is w/o value when the person who does it respects himself, the job, the clients and all ppl involved in general. No job!

And that is where work/econ systemics are failing today imho. The rating of jobs tends to devalue many and systems fail due to 5 cent screws or low pay and what is worse, low valued/rated jobs, economically and societally, ie jobs that thus attract people who, alas, do their job as if they are "zombies"! Or to put it differently, they are simply there (and just that). They are the real "bureaucrats" of not only the public but also the private sector? Their personal fault? Maybe to some extent, but also the management's, the "HR's", and systemic faults, I argue. And these are the ones where priority must be placed, to improve things!

So even jobs that are rated low are valuable if one realises that chain is a strong as its weakest link! 1 has to look at marginal benefit/cost. When one does that, one realises that no job is of low value to the "system" if the system is to work.

Decision making in 2012: Plan vs Strategy

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 03:40:00 +0000

Do not mistake boring and static thinking for good thinking. Or quips for wisdom.

In today's over-complicated systemics+dynamics one has to either beef up the analysis or give it up altogether.

Over-analysis is not a symptom of too much analysis but of faulty analysis, usually with faulty tools.

Plus if your analysis is often off, take another look at your information sources. Time to try new ones maybe?

Trial and error and celebrating failure are OK but not excuses for under-valuing analysis and strategy.

If you are not comfy with analysis, then go with gut feeling. But best of luck then. You are out there on your own, no support equipment!

Thinking is not boring, merely some people's way of thinking is.

So, John Lennon was right: Life is what happens while you are busy making other plans.

But that is why strategy instead of mere planning or having plans or a plan is the key.

Because strategic thinking is not about a prediction and a plan based on it but based on many alternative scenarios.

Do not mistake over-thinking for too much thinking, it actually is faulty thinking that's the real problem.

In this complex and uncertain era, analysis and strategic thinking are after all is said and done also a matter of philosophy.

So in this zany era, you can either throw strategy out of the window or do it properly.

Should all economists live in Greece of 2012?

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 22:11:00 +0000

My first two university degrees were focused on decision sciences as applied to transport(ation) systems: traffic, public transportation, trains, corporate logistics and of course, at least in my case, airports and airlines. I have not really practiced the trade, except for policy analysis of EU transport policy. I used to say and I believed it that any transportation analyst/planner should spend some time working as a taxi driver. I have always been inspired by international (long haul) tracking as well. Maybe I should have practiced one of these two professions anyway. Maybe.

But my point, by some analogy, is that any economist should spent significant time living the life of "people in the streets" of economies such as the Greek economy in 2012 (the econ stats of which are, they say, comparable to the ones in the US during the great crash 80 years ago). How long for? I would say at least 4 months, maybe 6. Maybe even a year.

The values of wisdom and stamina and the danger of too financial times

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 20:00:00 +0000

My 12 weeks in the UK, NL, BEL, FRA, ITA were full of hard knocks. Tweeted much re that. So have the 2 weeks (back) in GRE. It has been a hard 7 days because I thought there was something wrong with my health. Turns out I am fine but I keep the lessons learned! We tend to think we are like companies, ie we live in perpetuity. Being aware every day that we are not, leads to better life management, ime.

Since the 17th I keep a daily ledger of all my daily expenses. Good discipline. My mom did same til she was 81! Some think that success in life is maximizing revenues. It is also, if not more, to manage/minimize cost (of living for persons/households).

Today I heard that another one of my bosses (good and bad times) in the 1990s passed away, this one this week. I shall miss him too.

Some years ago a friend accused me that I care too much about old people compared to young ones. Not true. I care much for both. But I feel that in this hard day and age, society has somewhat abandoned old people. I think old people, 80s+ are very cool and interesting. I also think that old people are very cute and lovely humans. And full of memories and wisdom to share with us.

My generation used to complain that old(er) people held the power (in biz, politics, the job market, etc). Now power seems to have shifted to those in their 30s. Nowadays the stamina of the 30plus decision makers has largely replaced in market value the wisdom of the 50plus of past decades. Both are bad trends

Why both are bad trends? Because IMO there shld be a healthy mix, Plus today's trend not good news for humans in general! The current high market value for stamina reflects a de-humanization of work and the economy in general. Are we headed towards IRobot humans?

My MBA with heavy electives in Finance does not prevent me from considering our times as too financial. A new type of middle ages.

From my personal diary: My own "systemics" and London rain

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 18:35:00 +0000

Back from the third trip to the dentist in 10 days. 8 extractions down (3 today), 6-7 more to go. It's raining like London the taxi driver claimed. Not it's not, I thought, but I did not say anything, I still had cotton in my mouth pressed again the empty gum. Was raining cats and dogs though and my shoes were too low to keep my pants from getting wet. Did make it to a mini market near the flat though and bought some basic stuff, was surprised the bill was 8 euro! The tuna can alone cost 2.5! The juice boxes each 1.2! Next time, supermarket. This was just to cover needs for tonight and tomorrow am, mostly.

Back at the flat, I washed my jaw with salty water, turned on the heater to reduce the dumpness, edited my LinkedIn profile.

Looks like my denture will be fixed by end of January at the latest. Then I will decide re location, it seems.

Still exhausted from the last 3 months, the last 1 year, the last 10 years. But especially the 12 weeks of the NW "fact-finding" trip. And as a friend put it during the trip "you quit your home, smoking, lost 20+ kilos, etc etc, your system must be out of balance looking for a new one". Seems so. I analyse world,, European and other systemics and dynamics and their effects on policy making and business strategies. My systemics are systemics too. But not a believer in self analysis. Because a lawyer who represents himself in court has a fool for a client.

Dynamics (Europe): Only Greece is Greece!

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Wed, 28 Nov 2012 23:55:00 +0000

In the aftermath of Monday night's Eurogroup decision on Greece (a very complicated package/deal the elements of which and their between the lines not clear to the writer, still, 24++ hrs later, but my MBA does help, to a certain extent, to begin to try to understand this complex financial deal), some in Ireland (and I am sure in Portugal too) are wondering "what does Greece have" that they do not have (implicit in that is the working assumption that the deal Greece got was, after all is said (and analysed) a good one).

Well, for one, with all due respect, Greece did not have politicians arguing that their country is NOT Greece. That is if I recall well the case for Ireland and Portugal, at least. I only call it as I remember it, vividly with we "are not Greece" political chants of sorts still in my ears from many many months ago).

Yes, Ireland does not have sunshine. I love Ireland and I wish it did. Not a fan of humidity. Greece never had or claimed to have a Tiger, either. Nor does it benefit from a corporate tax regime that via transfer pricing seems to suck corporate taxable income from other national tax systems, in the EU, Eurozone and beyond (in a very "our taxpayers" age, eg in Germany, The Netherlands, Finland, UK even USA - see other blog posts for the folly of that "out taxpayers" argument though, at least inside the EU and Eurozone).

What Ireland and Portugal do not have, either, is a huge pile of mud that has been thrown at them in the last three years, in the form of "lazy" and other epithets.

It was almost clear to most from the start that the first deal Greece got ("Memorandum 1") was meant to be punitive and, what is more, discourage Ireland, Portugal and other Euro members from ever asking for one.

It also seems clear to at least some commentators of the Eurogroup decision that Greece got a good enough deal considering the potential events re Spain, Italy, increasingly (?), France. And the German political timing/scene (elections next autumn). One that may be revised when the time (in Euro and German politics) is "right". At least that is one way to look at things. There are others.

South European systemics

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Wed, 28 Nov 2012 00:40:00 +0000

The South Europe life systemics and dynamics need to fit the South, in a way the South was more systemically sound some decades ago than today. Eg Spanish siesta made lost of sense.

Being in Athens is not that different frm being in LON, BRUX etc. Basically alone BUT less cost/day AND much easier to engage with "strangers"

About the Universe and its "conspiracies"

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Wed, 28 Nov 2012 00:31:00 +0000

Sorry folks, but the Universe does not conspire for or against you when you really want something. So resist the (understandable) temptation to think so, when things are going well or badly. It's too convenient, among other things.

Reminds me of a scene in "The Day After" when a woman who sees the nuke mushroom says something like (was ages ago, in the 80s when I watched this TV movie): Does that mean my appointment with my hair dresser for tomorrow is off?

My take on public affairs

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Tue, 27 Nov 2012 22:50:00 +0000

Companies/sectors think they can influence public policy.

Most of the time they cannot (and probably should not, at least not the way many think they should).

They should anticipate policy effects on company strategy though. The No. 1 job of the corporate public affairs function is to alert corporate planning and Board of public policy effects on corporate strategy

For global and EU systemics to work they need more than trade flows. Or less

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Tue, 27 Nov 2012 22:46:00 +0000

Here are some systemics and dynamics thoughts (written and tweeted Nov 24, 2012):

What libertarians seem to forget imo is that any group of more than 1 person constitutes a "society" or polis etc. Laws are part of explicit and informal "social contract" between members of a society/group/polis (politics comes from polis). The economy is also a dimension of a social contract when families stopped self producing everything and started trading w/ each other. Intra-polis trade between families created need for prices (even in barter trade) and thus money. But in basic intra-polis/village trade no one was really left "jobless", was mostly specialization benefits.

I am sure economic theories/models (be they of 5000 BCE or 2012 CE) worked much better in 5000 BCE! In a way, extra-polis trade (see eg explorers to "new worlds") disrupted the social/econ contracts/balances of de facto closed societies. Not to mention that lack of competition rules probably had created warlords and other oligarchs inside closed systems/cities/villages.

Why do I say probably? Cos I was not there to see for myself, at 5000 or something BCE. Were you?

Opening up and allowing trade between families in a polis came as part of social and legal contracts/laws/balance. But but inter-polis (ie inter-national) trade/exchanges were not coupled by common laws and a social/econ contract! Were they? No WTO etc.

That is still in 2012 the underpinning element of trade and other inter-state exchanges of all kinds: They fall outside national scopes. Of course so many are in favor of free trade without unification, it sort of allows them to have the cake and eat it too!! Think about it!

Trade between entities not bound together the way a country is bound together is sort of having a cake and eating it too! Sort of "dumping".

That is also part why most economic models/theories have failed. They deal in principle and de facto with closed systems. Look at GATT and the WTO: It regulates basically trade but fails to deal with many other dimensions thus systemically unbalanced. What I am saying is that trade, investment, migration and other flows need to happen within a "system". Is such system compatible with any sub-global/earth sovereignties? In other words is even trade compatible with national sovereignty since separate social contracts?

Can comparative advantage really exist in a league (competition) between 200+ national economies where there is no actual "league"? Does this mean that the world needs to become a federal political entity for "fair" trade to exist? Is it otherwise an "animal farm"? Can national social contracts exist at the same time as free trade exists? Much like libertarians who want to exploit imo the benefits of a society (econ is a social activity) w/o the "costs" of a society ... Or look at how some in the UK want to free-ride Europe and the world w/o any associated social contracts or rules! Pick and choose only!

Thus no wonder that many of the arguments used against the EU are actually prompting localism/separatism in many EU member states!To use absiloute logic, either sovereign states need to become like eg Cuba or North Korea or join together in a federal entity!!

But in any case, imo trade was, back when it started in human history, the first opener for more open systems. But that was thousands of years ago. Not in 2012! The systemics to work need more than trade flows. Or less.

The idea that one can be a sovereign state (city, national, etc) and still engage even in trade with others is imo challenged in this era! It worked in 1200 BCE or 1400 CE or even 1949 (GATT era) etc but not in the systemics and dynamics of 2000s!

Thus it should come as no real surprise that European and US and world systemics and dynamics are out of control in the 2000s and 2012 and that globalization, regionalization (EU, UNASUR, ASEAN), nationalization (UK), localisation/separatist dynamics do co-exist in 2012! Because systemically speaking the system is out of whack! Freedom of trade and investment cannot work systemically for long w/o full system integration.

Note: Available for research and analysis for think tanks, NGOs, civil society orgs, firms, policy makers, media, academia anywhere in world.

12 points on Greece, crisis, austerity, growth, new national sport, etc

noreply@blogger.com (Nick Panayotopoulos) — Tue, 27 Nov 2012 22:17:00 +0000

These are some thoughts I tweeted last night before and after the Eurogroup decision on Greece:

1) What is the elephant in the Eurogroup presser room? GDP growth!

2) Reminder: The best way to bring down any debt/GDP ratio is GDP growth. Not rocket science, is it, except for the Euro austerians!

3) The Euro crisis is now in its 4th season! So is Fringe, but it's its final season (for Fringe).

4) If Greece had 1 cent (Ok, maybe 1 euro) for every time int'l media have mentioned Greece in connection to crisis 3 yrs now, it would have no debt by now!

5) In 2004, I wrote an article "after 2004, what?". Tonight I ask, after tonight, what? Greece always needs a real growth model, above all. As again I wrote before, in 2004, Greece needs to make exporting its new national sport.

6) Greece has been extremely loyal to the EU Single Market and the WTO. But alas mostly on the imports side! Needs growth and exports.

7) Greece has a great econ model. It's called Tourism. And assets such a climate. No sense being "Wall St yuppie" in "Jamaica" imho

8) Whether with euro or drachma, Greek economy has to grow. And that means more industry and much much more tourism revenues! And exports.

9) It also needs to develop the companies that will produce products that will replace imports, trade balance is one of the keys to GR growth.

10) Now, and always, Greece needs a growth model that fits it, not imports of models or parts of models from Ireland, Finland, Germany etc! The same applies to every country/economy imho.

11) For Greece, PIIGS and others to achieve growth, a key issue is: What will the Euro exchange rate v-a-v USD, Yuan etc be like 2012-2020/22

12) Romney-Ryan lost and now there seems to be accord on Greece. Seems the world moves in right direction after all!