NseBseGuru Bhavishya of Nifty

Market Outlook 16th February 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 02:23:00 +0000

Nifty Pivot 5460
Support 5441-5425
Resistance 5503-5538

After falling for more than 1000 points since January, Nifty finally manged to bounce back from its lows and is now recovering due to heavy short covering and fresh buying.

Nifty charts suggests a minimum retracement to 5555 level before it can face some strong resistance and near 5555 only we will see some consolidation.

In case Nifty manages to old 5555 level strongly and close above it for two consecutive days than we can see higher levels of 5670 and then 5775 as well in the coming days.

On the lower side if Nifty breaches 5425 level then we may see another wave of short selling.
If Nifty closes below 5425 for minimum of two sessions then we may again slide back to lower levels and support at 5381 and at 5316 level only which may be tested anytime.

Market Outlook 9th February 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 17:36:00 +0000

Remember what we mentioned in last edition of market outlook?
It is writing on the wall and you can just read it upside down.

Market is bound to fall in every condition and it did happened on Tuesday as well.
Our advise was: "Every rally must be used to exit long position and to create short position."

Had you followed it with full dedication great profits must have been pocketed.

Despite of so much fall we are still not oversold and punters are fearless to create short positions and carry shorts comfortably.
Nifty may test 5000-4800 levels in the coming sessions and that can be great buying opportunity for delivery takers.
Till than stay short or away from the market.

Nifty Pivot 5344
Support 5285-5349
Resistance 5357-5392

Market Outlook 7th February 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 06 Feb 2011 13:04:00 +0000

Since the day Nifty closed below 200 DMA (SMA at 5630 & EMA at 5650) it became evident that market will free-fall for some more days in the coming sessions.

We mentioned in our last issue of market outlook that all rise should be used for exiting longs and traders may either remain short or stay out rather than keeping longs.

So had anybody followed our advice must be in good profit now!

Until Nifty claw back to 200 DMA and close the same, market will in the full grip of bears and they will pul in down on the slightest of the provocation.

Although its quite difficult to predict a fix time-frame for the market movements but its quite clear that market may not stabilize in the near future so easily.

Until our dear Finance Minister presents a very good budget we will not find any breather from him.
We are struggling a lot even on inflation front which is hovering in 2 digit mark for past many months.

The rise of crude is also a matter of great concern for the government which is treading a rough path these days.
Crude will keep inflation high more few more months and our government is unable to find a solution for this so easily.

If government allow dollar to fall lower vs rupee like it did during the year 2007-8 than it may nullify the crude rally but it will have adverse effect on exporters and IT firms and will dwindle their earnings.
This will also not a good sign for the ones who love IT firms like Infosys, Wipro, TCS etc to name a few.

Overall scenario for our market is quite bleak and we must see lows of 5000-4800 for Nifty in the days to come.

Only very strong wave of positive news can save us some grace.

Nifty Pivot 5411
Support 5355-5304
Resistance 5434-5484

Market Outlook 2nd February 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 18:19:00 +0000

Punters have tasted the blood and did spare a single chance to pull the market down.

Without much hesitation all short unwinding was put aside and we could see fresh shorts on Tuesday.

Any pull towards upside is a sign of danger rather than a relief rally.

India's most tracked stock Reliance Industry broke important support level of 900 and closed below it after more than 6 Months.

In terms of % fall, Tuesday saw a steeper fall after January 2008.
We are unable to see any support on the lower side and doors are opened for much lower levels than anyone can expect.

Its better to stay short or stay neutral than holding longs in this type of market.

Nifty Pivot 5429
Support 5381-5359
Resistance 5446-5484

Market Outlook 1st February 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 17:09:00 +0000

Nifty's resilience to below 5400 level and then rising up to close just 6 points down from its previous close (Friday) is a healthy sign.

Punters are gearing up to cover their shorts and may push Nifty further up due to short covering.

This short covering may lead Nfity to test the levels of 5560 and then 5590.

But until Nifty closes above 200 DMA at 5630 (SMA) and 5650 (EMA) any rise will be just treated as a temporary relief rally and traders must stay cautious of these rallies.

We advise traders to cover short positions and stay neutral until their is clear sign of uptrend or downfall from these levels.

Nifty Pivot 5502
Support 5473-5435
Resistance 5543-5577

Market Outlook 31st January 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 02:45:00 +0000

Nifty breached all important barriers last week and lost almost 4% on closing basis and made new low after 1st September 2010.

This much weakness signifies that market is in big correction mode and is ready to fall more in the absence of big ticket buying from institutions.

FII's are selling continuously this year and sold for more than half of their holdings bought in the year 2009 and 2010 within just first month of the year 2011.

Nifty is trading below 200 DMA at 5660 (EMA) and 5630 (SMA) which is big sign of weakness.

200 DMA was breached on closing basis in April 2008 on closing basis and the lower levels that followed was just a history and Nifty fell for more than 50% after that.

Although our market and world economy are not in that bad shape now and we will not stumble that much and will find support much before that.
The immediate support is now emerging at 5434 level and some buying can be seen near or before this level.
But this level may prove to be only a pseudo support level and market may stumble even further to the lows of 5340 and 5290 levels.

Level of 5434 will be only a temporary relief level after so much weakness and punters are gearing up sell even more.
Most retail investors are holding shares with minor losses that they will surely sell in any further breakdown and it can be seen even today.

Nifty Pivot 5550
Support 5480-5451
Resistance 5548-5579

Market Outlook 24th January 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 17:42:00 +0000

After opening weak, Nifty staged a strong comeback and gained more than 1% from its intraday low and closed by gaining more than 0.8% on closing basis.

The fears of rate hike by RBI were sidelined by traders and it seems like that a lot has already been discounted in it.

There are some key levels to watch out for.
Nifty may turn negative biased if moves below 5731 and also do not holds 5719 level.

If RBI do not throw many surprises then we may see some bounce back and in that case Nifty may run higher.

Nifty respected 200 DMA currently at 5661 and if a closing below the same is seen than we are in serious trouble.

Above 5796 level Nifty will find positive upmove and closing above it will put Nifty back in the bulls hands for higher levels.

In the absence of negative news Nifty must test 5850 level as next hurdle.

Nifty Pivot 5731

Support 5719-5690

Resistance 5768-5796

Market Outlook 14th January 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 16:01:00 +0000

Nifty has strong support at 150 DMA which is at 5751 and all the three times
during last three trading sessions Nifty manages to close above this level.

Even on 13th January this level was breached during the day but we have a closing near 5751.

Closing at strong support level generally leads to a volatile session the next day and it was also experienced on 11th January.

Although so much weakness after poor Infosys results will bring in some relief rally sooner or later and we may find some buying support on every fall towards 5700 level which proved to be strong support level for past few trading days.

The kind of chart formation Nifty is making hints at uncertain sessions ahead and it is very difficult to predict the future trends.
This might be another Black Friday today or we may end up having a strong short covering session which may give Nifty some healthy boost towards 5800-5835 range.

We advise traders to do some value buying on every fall towards 5700 or lower.

Nifty Pivot 5771
Support 5731-5700
Resistance 5782-5810

Market Outlook 13th January 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 16:36:00 +0000

After announcement of IIP data market took a dip and nosedived to test 5720.
But later on it
recovered from its lows and rise to close by gaining 109 points.

Market has touched great lows and many important support levels were tested and market was waiting a single positive news.
So Infosys results fueled the rally and market showed the wild swings from the low to the day's high.

Although the coming days will not be so easy for the market and we may see sudden profit booking in the coming sessions as well.

If Nifty crosses 5914 level then it will be a big thrust for the punters and they may take Nifty to a new high.
Closing above 5914 may lead Nifty to 5964 level easily.

Nifty Pivot 5831
Support 5821-5786
Resistance 5885-5914

Market Outlook 11th January 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 18:01:00 +0000

On Monday, Nifty breached all barriers and closed below some of the most important support levels.

Now Nifty is at 150 DMA of 5755.

Close at such a support level is always risky for the next day and most of the times we experience another weak session the following day.

So Tuesday can be another weak trading pattern day and one may not find breather soon.

Continues closing below 150 DMA causes market to tread lower and we may move closer to 200 DMA which is at 5604.

Although 200 DMA may not be tested at all in such a hurry and market may rebound any day in between to show some relief.

Although Nifty is not exactly oversold at present and we may not see value buying at lower levels very easily.

In next 2 or 3 trading sessions we may see relief rally of some sort.

Till then happy short selling!

Nifty Pivot 5801
Support 5714-5683
Resistance 5793-5849

Weekly Market Outlook for 10th -14th January

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 08 Jan 2011 11:04:00 +0000

Nifty fell for the 5th straight session and Nifty lost 4.3% on closing basis for the week ended 7th January 2011.

The 1st week of the year was negative on the fear of interest rate hike, softening of commodity prices and poor results by MNC's like Samsung.

FII's now expectoing a bounceback in US and EU economy and hence they are withdrawing their investments from India and investing it back home.

Overall markert picture is very bleak now and we are expecting more selloff in the coming days.

Nifty breached 100 day EMA and managed to close near it due to average closing factor.

Fibonnacci supports for the NIfty are very close at 5895 and 5864. It may easily be tested on Monday.

If Nifty fail to show support at 5864 level and closes below it then we are in big trouble and Nifty may fall down to test 150 DMA at 5776.

The support line drawn from recent lows also signifies a support ;evel near 5830 which may entice many traders to initiate fresh longs for the intermediate term.

The best strategy is to wait on the sidelines and wait for fresh uptrend to accumulate blue chips at reasonable price.

Will it be a Black Friday

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 08:00:00 +0000

At 1:30 P.M. Nifty is down more than 85 points.
Will it be another Black Friday or will market take support here?
Nifty must find some support at 5964 level otherwise it may fall down to 5904 level.

One should take position carefully and avoid delivery based buying.

Market Outlook 7th January 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 16:24:00 +0000

Fearing a spurt of rate hikes by Indian banks most
investors prefer to sell than buy anything.
Banking sector faced the maximum correction and chances are high that correction is here to stay.

After rising from the lows of 8th December, Nifty peaked out on 4th January and has already touched the first strong support level on 6th January.

SO Thursday's low will be very important for Friday and if we see a closing below it then Nifty must fall all the way down to 5946.

Nifty may find good support near 50 DMA near 6013 but if it is breached then Nifty will not look back and lower levels are bound to be seen.

Nifty Pivot 6083
Support 6046-6004
Resistance 6098-6133

Market Outlook 15th December 2010

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 02:45:00 +0000

Market is reeling under a lot of pressure from a last few sessions.

In a blindly rising stock market any negative news can create havoc as it did now.

Finally we are in the middle of a corrective market which is bottoming out from its lows.

Now Nifty may peak out at current levels or may further rise till 6007 mark as well. If Nifty manages to close above 6007 then recent highs of 6094 will the final destination for Nifty.

On the lower side Nifty may drift lower to test 5848 if it close below 5914.

Nifty Pivot 5944
Support 5921-5893
Resistance 5983-6007

Market Outlook 18th November 2010

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 16 Nov 2010 17:05:00 +0000

Market tumbled for yet another session and Nifty lost more than 2.17%.
Banknifty fell a little lower in percentage terms and lost 1.83% on closing basis.

All traders who were bullish till the beginning of the last week were seem to dump all their holdings at whatever price available.

Now market is in complete grip of bears and a further window for more fall is opened up.

After the success of India's biggest IPO, Coal India Ltd., FII's and institutions were busy pulling out smart money from market.

Nifty has closed below very important support levels and even breached 50 DMA on closing basis.

Now immediate support exists only at 5909.

If this level is also breached then only God will save the market from further fall.

Nifty Pivot 6029
Support 5953-5909
Resistance 6029-6061

Market Outlook 15th October 2010

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 14 Oct 2010 16:03:00 +0000

If Tuesday was fantastic in term of bulls trends Wednesday was fantastic for bear cartel.
With a good opening gap Nifty managed to touch a new 52 week high and this level was last seen only in the first week of January 2008.
But later on it became evident that punters are in a mood of some profit booking after sharp rise of Tuesday and in the late afternoon a real bloodbath was seen among bulls and all were trashed heavily.

Bank Nifty suffered the most among frontline blue chips while IT Index managed to close with decent gains expecting a better result from IT biggie Infosys on Friday.

Small Cap and Mid-caps also saw selling pressure while long build up was seen among Fertilizer and Metal stocks.

In all it was a U-Turn in Index Movement for the past three sessions and most of what was gained on Tuesday after Monday's weakness was again lost on Wednesday.

Well there is still hope for bulls if Nifty do not breach 6177 and manages to stay above that level.
On the higher side if Nifty trades above 6213, then bulls will again take a front seat and upside will be seen.
Last hope for the bulls is at 6149 and breaching this level will result in a lot of profit booking by punters who will lead the index further downwards.

If punters manages to regain 6213 level then they may pump more power into the market that may bring Nifty back to higher levels.
We hope for the best but should also be ready for the worst.

Nifty Pivot 6213
Support 6178-6149
Resistance 6236-6271

Market Outlook 13th October 2010

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 12 Oct 2010 15:10:00 +0000

Tuesday was a big selloff day for our market.
Both Nifty and Sensex saw big sell-off due to poor IIP data and the front line index lost 0.75% in the end.
It was also attributed to the forthcoming India's largest IPO "Coal India Ltd.".
A huge chunk on liquidity was drifted out of market before the IPO opens and till it close the chances of reverse outflow are even higher.

Market is expected to remain volatile for this whole week and the choppyness may end next week.
Now Nifty has moved close to its important support level of 6084 and if this level is breached then from here we may see some strong sell-off pressure from all sides.
In the worst case scenario, Nifty may also test 1 Month's closing levels moving average 6017.
A breach of this level on closing basis will invite another wave of selling spree which may end only near psychological support level of 5900 or may be even lower.
In case if Nifty manages to regain 6131 level then we may be back in the uptrend.

Big discount in the Nifty Spot and Future levels signifies the excessive short positions created in the NIfty on the higher side.

Nifty Pivot 6117

Support 6068-6049
Resistance 6131-6163

Market Outlook 6th October 2010

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 06 Oct 2010 02:05:00 +0000

Nifty showed some somber movement after a couple of sessions and we saw a bit of consolidation at higher levels.

Now today we may see some gap-up opening with reasons quite obvious that all global markets are strong today.

EU and US markets closed with big gains and SGX Nifty is trading strong at the opening bell.
Now we will be able to see good session yet again.
As long as Nifty is above 6154 there is no reason to worry.

Closing below this level may cause some stir among punter fraternity who may sell some more to lead it lower side.
But overall punters are trying their best to breach the Nifty's all time high level of 6336 and at best it could be seen in this result season.
So just enjoy trading and happy investing.

Nifty Pivot 6188

Support 6154-6129

Resistance 6211-6243

Nifty Outlook 21st June

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 20 Jun 2010 17:39:00 +0000

Pivot 5268
Support 5231-5203-5174
Resistance 5281-5301-5323

Nifty has shown remarkable recovery during last week and Nifty gained more than 140 points last week ending 18th June.

Level of 5245 is an important hurdle which was breached on closing basis.

So Nifty now may test next hurdle at 5323 level.

If this level is also breached then Nifty is all set to break its previous high of 5398 and a new high may be made.

But most part of the rally is to do with short covering than some actual buying and hence until 5245 is also maintained this week Nifty may again tread into profit booking zone.

As long as Nifty closes above 5203 level for the week long positions may be carried forward comfortably but closing below it may force punters to unwind longs which will create more selling pressure.

Such a scenario may bring Nifty down to 5120 level as well.

Nifty Outlook 10th June

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 17:34:00 +0000

Nifty continued its zig-saw momentum!

Pivot 5003
Support 4973-4948-4927
Resistance 5031-5056-5084

A day before Nifty was very weak, the very next day it traded stronger.

On Tuesday Nifty opened stronger then went lower to close lower while on Wednesday it reversed its path and after opening lower it went on hit day's high almost 70 points above its previous close.

Although on the closing basis there is a gain of hardly 13 points which is not much conducive.

A close above 5000 level is important but it shows a confusing picture for the week ahead.

The scenario is not quite clear now and not much can be commented about Nifty's future course of action.

If Nifty moves above 5031 then it may test 5056 level and then may struggle to inch towards 5084 level.

This is a big hurdle that must be crossed by Nifty in order to recoup the lost ground.

Nifty may test 5154 level if it manages to close above 5084 comfortably.

On the ower side Nifty has decent support at 4948 level and breach of this level may create panic that may pull itfurther down to 4896 level.

One should be ready to buy on dips and sell on rise.
(Which is there generally every second day at present)

Nifty Outlook 9th June

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 18:34:00 +0000

Cash is King!

Pivot 4984
Support 4947-4916-4896
Resistance 5006-5031-5062

After making a new high after almost 3 weeks Nifty is back to square one.
Nifty had a very bad session yesterday.

After moving in positive territory after opening, Nifty slipped to close below 5000.

This is a bad sign as a whole.
One may not think of some strong support in very near future.

As per Fibonacci theory Nifty (Spot) has two support zone at 4963 and at 4916.
Well the first level was very well respected on Tuesday by Nifty(spot).

But a close below 5000 indicates inherent strong weakness in Nifty and we may see more correction now.

So we can expect some support coming up near 4916 level.

Next support for Nifty is very close and its placed at 4896.

This level is also likely to be tested in the current wave of weakness where everybody is busy selling whatever is owned by them.

The triangle formed by Nifty charts clearly indicates very big selling in the range of 5110-5125 level which was proved to be right and Nifty is more than 120 points below that mark.

Another triangle indicates that Nifty may take support at 4836 level in case 4896 is breached on closing basis.

We are of the opinion that one should do buying on dips but get ready to take minor loss in case of closing below 4896.

SInce overall picture is bleak so one should also sell on rally and accumulate cash.

Nifty Outlook 8th June

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 17:53:00 +0000

Nifty closed losing almost 2% from its Friday's close.

Pivot 5021
Support 4999-4976-4948
Resistance 5051-5076-5096

It was a very weak session for Nifty yesterday.

Such a weak session is hard to seen normally and it was one big day.

Most of the traders busy covering their short position and not many fresh short positions were build on Monday.

This is good omen and market may rebound from current levels.
Another strength shown by Nifty is that discount in Nifty Future did not widen compare to Nifty spot.

Nifty managed to close above above important psychological and technical level of 4999.

Any closing below 4999 will push Nifty below 4896 level but chances of this scenario is very remote.
Traders may start buying at the current level.

Nifty Outlook 7th June

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 18:26:00 +0000

Nifty ready for another round of weakness.

Pivot 5099
Support 5079-5048-5012
Resistance 5134-5156-5179

Due to big ticket sell-off in US market we are bound to see a lot of weakness in the opening bell in our market as well.

Nifty may open weak and may continue losing streak later on.

Level of 5074 in Nifty is strong turning point and any closing below this must push it even lower.
Nifty must see strong support at 4999 level.

Any breach of this level will make Nifty more weaker and we will test 4895 level again for sure.

Any positional buying must be avoided until situation clears.

Nifty Outlook 4th June

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 17:40:00 +0000

Nifty showed great strength and break-out yesterday.

Pivot 5001
Support 5072-5044-5015
Resistance 5142-5168-5192

Nifty easily managed to stay above 5100 and closed above the important resistance level of 5100.

This level is important as it was both a psychological resistance as well as technical resistance.

Nifty Future is trading with some discount and it will shorten very soon by the end of this month.

Now if Nifty manages to stay above 5142 with good volume then it may find some resistance near 5168 level.

Breach of this level with good volume will take Nifty close to 5200 level.

Die hard traders may short Nifty near 5168 level and wait for the breakout to cut the Stop Loss or to reap some decent profit.

Nifty Outlook 3rd June

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 18:12:00 +0000

For most part of the day Nifty traded in a narrow range but finally managed a break-out and jumped 50 points.

Pivot 5001
Support 4989-4961-4934
Resistance 5037-5062-5091

It was breather for most traders as market breadth turned positive and many long position were built.

Reliance communication was biggest index gainer.

Telecom stocks zoomed on various speculation.
Sugar sector also saw a lot of long build-up.
Pharma sector is looking a safe heaven to many traders and heavy built up is seen in this sector as well.

Nifty is in confused zone at present and nothing decisive can be said about its future coure of action until Nifty breaches 5035 and stay above it.

A fall and close below 4990 may again initiate short positions in the market and long unwinding.

It will create a scenario of last few session and we may again see a new intermediate low.

If Nifty close above 5100 then things will be in full control of bulls and we may see much higher levels then.