• Gold’s upward momentum has weakened as investors take profits ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole.
• Lower Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar have supported gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
• A neutral or dovish message from Warsh could reduce expectations of a September rate hike and support another move higher.
• A hawkish warning about easier financial conditions could lift yields and the dollar, triggering a deeper correction in gold.
• Technically, the uptrend remains intact, with resistance at USD 4,775 and the April high near USD 4,890 per ounce.

Gold’s upward momentum is weakening ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The recent stabilisation in prices appears to reflect profit-taking after the previous rally, as well as growing caution before an event that could materially reshape expectations for US monetary policy.

The key issue is the recent easing in financial conditions. The US Treasury’s announcement that it will increase buybacks of longer-dated government bonds, together with verbal intervention from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, contributed to a decline in yields. Although the operations were officially presented as measures intended to improve market liquidity, investors also interpreted them as an attempt to contain the US government’s borrowing costs.

Lower bond yields are generally positive for gold because the metal does not generate interest income. A decline in Treasury yields, particularly in real terms, reduces the opportunity cost of holding bullion. If this is accompanied by a weaker US dollar, gold also becomes more affordable for investors using other currencies.

The most important question is whether Warsh will push back against the recent easing in financial conditions. If the Fed Chair does not express concern about falling yields and effectively leaves the initiative with the Treasury, investors could scale back expectations of an imminent interest-rate increase. Such a scenario would support another leg higher in gold.

The alternative scenario would be a more hawkish speech. Warsh could argue that persistently easier financial conditions make it more difficult to bring inflation back towards the Fed’s target. He may also signal that the central bank is prepared to react if lower yields, rising asset prices and easier access to financing generate renewed demand-side inflationary pressure.

Such remarks could be interpreted as a warning that the September Federal Reserve meeting may take a more hawkish turn. A rise in expectations of a rate increase would probably push Treasury yields higher and strengthen the dollar, putting downward pressure on gold.

The situation is particularly important because US inflation remains persistent. The core PCE price index rose by 3.3% year-on-year in July, remaining clearly above the Fed’s 2% target. At the same time, the Treasury’s efforts to lower long-term yields may partially offset the restrictive effects of monetary policy.

Gold broke above a descending trend line in July, providing an early signal that the previous corrective phase was losing momentum. Two strong bullish impulses followed in August, lifting the price towards USD 4,700 per ounce.

The market is now undergoing a technical correction after two consecutive sessions of declines. However, the pullback remains relatively shallow and there are still no convincing signs that the latest phase of the uptrend has ended.

The nearest resistance is located around USD 4,775 per ounce, corresponding to the highs recorded in May 2026. Above that level, the main target for buyers remains the April peak near USD 4,890. A decisive break above USD 4,890 would confirm the continuation of the broader uptrend and could open the way towards USD 5,400 per ounce. Such an extensive move would, however, probably require a pronounced depreciation of the US dollar.

In the short term, gold’s direction will depend primarily on Warsh’s assessment of the recent easing in financial conditions. A lack of opposition from the Fed Chair could allow the market to retest USD 4,775 and subsequently USD 4,890 per ounce.

Conversely, a hawkish signal accompanied by a higher perceived probability of a September rate increase could encourage profit-taking and initiate a deeper correction. Warsh’s speech may therefore determine whether the current pullback remains a temporary pause within the uptrend or develops into a more substantial reversal.

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• AI demand faces its biggest test: NVIDIA must show Data Centre growth is still accelerating enough to justify a US$5.2 trillion valuation.
• Q3 guidance matters most: A strong guide above current expectations would support the AI trade, while cautious guidance could trigger broader de-risking.
• 216.40 is the key breakout: A move above it may revive the medium-term uptrend, while a daily close below 195.95 would invalidate the bullish setup.

Ahead of today’s NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 earnings, the setup is clear: the stock is no longer just trading on “Artificial Intelligence (AI) demand is strong”. It is trading on whether AI infrastructure demand is still accelerating fast enough to justify a US$5 trillion-plus market cap, elevated expectations, and the broader AI equity trade.

In the past week, the share price of NVDIA recorded seven consecutive sessions of daily losses from 14 August 2026 to 24 Aug 2026, slipping 7.7% in total, marking its longest and worst downward run since September 2022, before rebounding by 2.2% on Tuesday, 25 August 2026 (see Fig. 1).

NVIDIA reports after the US close on Wednesday, 26 August 2026. Consensus is clustered around US$92 billion in revenue and roughly US$2.08–US$2.09 in adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS), while NVIDIA’s own Q2 guide is US$91 billion in revenue, plus or minus 2%, with non-GAAP gross margin near 75%.

Here are the five key fundamental factors to focus on.

The main focus is still on Data centre revenue, with consensus pointing to around US$85.7 billion, more than double a year ago. This is the cleanest read-through for hyperscaler AI capex, sovereign AI projects, enterprise AI adoption, and accelerated computing demand.

Share price impact: A strong Data Centre beat would reinforce the view that AI demand remains supply-constrained and likely support a post-earnings rally. A miss, or signs of moderating growth, would raise concerns about “peak AI capex” and could pressure not only NVIDIA but also the wider semiconductor complex.

Traders will watch closely for updates on Blackwell shipments, B-series revenue, Rubin timing and supply availability. S&P Global notes that B-series revenue expectations are highly dispersed, with estimates ranging from US$6.3 billion to US$76.3 billion for Q2, underscoring how uncertain the market remains about the ramp profile. Rubin is also expected to begin contributing this year.

Share price impact: Clear Blackwell execution and confident commentary from Rubin would keep the “next product cycle” narrative intact. Any delay, supply bottleneck, or vague ramp language would be bearish, as NVIDIA’s premium multiple depends on sustained product-cycle leadership.

NVIDIA guided for 74.9% GAAP gross margin and 75.0% non-GAAP gross margin, plus or minus 50 basis points. The market will focus on whether rising HBM memory costs, advanced packaging, and supply chain costs are starting to erode profitability.

Share price impact: Margins holding near 75% would confirm NVIDIA still has strong pricing power. A margin miss would be a bigger problem than usual because investors are already questioning whether AI hardware economics can remain this exceptional at scale.

The reported quarter matters, but Q3 guidance matters more. Wall Street is looking for evidence that the AI spending cycle remains strong into the next quarter, with some previews suggesting Q3 revenue expectations could move above US$108 billion if management delivers another beat-and-raise setup.

Share price impact: A strong Q3 guide would be the cleanest bullish catalyst. In-line guidance may not be enough after the recent rebound, while cautious guidance would trigger a sharper de-risking move because NVIDIA is the bellwether for AI earnings momentum.

NVIDIA’s earnings are now a market-wide stress test for AI capex. Reuters notes that traders are focused on revenue, chip demand, margins and cloud-sector capital spending, with the stock’s earnings move expected to swing around US$280 billion in market value, which translates to an expected price move of around 5.4% in either direction based on NVIDIA’s market capitalisation of roughly US$5.2 trillion.

Share price impact: Strong commentary from hyperscalers and enterprise customers would support the broader AI trade. But if NVIDIA management hints at slower cloud orders, slower customer adoption, energy constraints, or funding stress, the market may rotate away from AI infrastructure winners.

Let’s now unpack the technicals of NVIDIA on a medium-term (multi-week) time horizon.

The recent 9.1% decline (high to low) seen in the price actions of NVIDIA (NVDA) from 17 August 2026 has managed to stall on Monday, 24 August 2026 and staged a rebound as well as formed a “Bullish Harami” candlestick pattern on Tuesday, 25 August 2026, after a retest on its 50-day moving average, acting as a key intermediate support at 208.00 (see Fig. 2).

In addition, the volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of the NVDA/SPY ratio has begun trending upwards since 18 August 2026, with its latest print as of Tuesday, 25 August 2026, breaching above its centreline, indicating potential outperformance of NVIDIA over the benchmark S&P 500.

These positive technical elements support an increasing likelihood of a medium-term recovery in NVDA.

A bullish breakout above 216.40 may signal the start of a new medium-term bullish impulsive up-move sequence towards the all-time high zone of 227.40/236.54 before potentially setting sights on the next medium-term resistances at 234.10 and 259.70/260.20 (Fibonacci extension clusters).

On the other hand, a break and a daily close below the key medium-term pivotal support at 195.95 would invalidate the bullish reversal scenario, exposing a deeper corrective decline toward the next medium-term supports at 179.95 and 164.55.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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• PCE release focus: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the July PCE price index report on Wednesday, August 26, which will serve as a critical signal for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
• Inflation expectations: Consensus estimates call for headline PCE inflation to moderate slightly to 3.6% YoY, while core PCE is projected to hold steady at 3.3% YoY.
• Broader economic data: The PCE release will be accompanied by key household financial metrics, including Personal Income, Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Personal Spending (Outlays), and the Personal Savings Rate.
• Technical outlook (EUR/USD): Following FOMC minutes, EUR/USD broke above its complex head-and-shoulders neckline and key pivot levels toward 1.1710, with immediate resistance ahead at 1.1737 (weekly R1) while oscillators indicate overbought conditions.

The upcoming personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report—scheduled for release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday, August 26—serves as a pivotal indicator for investors evaluating the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves, particularly because PCE (specifically Core PCE) is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy. Consensus estimates project July headline PCE inflation to tick down slightly to 3.6% year-over-year while core PCE is anticipated to hold steady at 3.3%, making this print highly scrutinized for signals on whether underlying price pressures are abating or remaining stubbornly elevated.

The upcoming PCE report carries heightened significance, coming on the heels of recent FOMC meeting minutes that revealed a 6–3 division among members and landing directly ahead of both the Jackson Hole Symposium and the September FOMC interest rate decision.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is a subcomponent of the broader personal income and outlays report, released simultaneously by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). When the PCE data drops, it is released alongside several key measures of household financial health:

• Personal income: Total income received by individuals from all sources, including wages, investment returns, and government transfers (such as Social Security).
• Disposable personal income (DPI): Personal income remaining after current tax payments—a key metric for consumer spending power.
• Personal spending (Outlays): Real and nominal figures showing how much consumers spent on goods (durable and nondurable) and services.
• Personal savings rate: Personal savings expressed as a percentage of disposable income, showing how much buffer households are maintaining.

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• Following a downside breakout from a medium-term ascending channel in July 2025, EUR/USD entered a broadening wedge structure (highlighted by the blue trendlines). Price action subsequently printed a positive stochastic divergence in June 2026, followed by an exhaustion gap in July, establishing firm structural support above the monthly S1 pivot at 1.1406. A bullish rally lifted the pair toward the 1.1550 handle, where price consolidated under a confluence of resistance from August 1 through August 19th, 2026, then broke higher following the release of the dovish FOMC meeting minutes, as marked on the chart.

• The aforementioned confluence of resistance comprised the inverted complex head-and-shoulders neckline, the monthly pivot point (PP) at 1.1601, the first monthly support (S1) at 1.1589, and the 9-period exponential moving average (EMA9) and the 9-period simple moving average (SMA9). The resistance level has now turned into support; the range is marked by a blue circle.

• The previously discussed inverted complex head-and-shoulders bottoming structure reached completion on August 19. A decisive bullish breakout above the neckline catalyzed upward momentum, pushing price action through key resistance at the weekly PP (1.1650) and the monthly R2 (1.1671), and printing a session high near 1.1710.

• An immediate resistance lies above price action, R1 weekly at 1.1737, followed by R3 monthly R3 1.1795.

• Oscillator metrics reflect extended momentum, with the 14-period Stochastic (14, 1, 3) holding deep in overbought territory at 85.45 and the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) trending firmly higher at 73.19.

EMA: Exponential Moving Average

MA: Moving Average

RSI: Relative Strength Index

% K: Fast Stochastic,

%D Slow Stochastic

MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence

Pivot Point: PP – Support: S – Resistance: R

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.