• Technology stocks staged a strong rebound, led by semiconductor shares such as Intel and Micron, helping the Nasdaq 100 recover 1.6% despite weak overall market breadth and continued pressure on non-tech sectors.
• Middle East tensions remain a key market driver, but a temporary Israel-Iran ceasefire helped cap oil price gains, reducing immediate inflation fears and supporting risk sentiment.
• Investors remain focused on higher interest rates and liquidity risks in mega-IPOs, with Treasury yields remaining elevated as upcoming listings such as SpaceX continue to raise questions about capital allocation across global equity markets.
• Chart of the day: AUD/USD’s rebound from Monday looks like a “dead cat bounce”. Watch the 0.7085/710 key short-term resistance.

The 0.7% rebound in AUD/USD from Monday’s Asian session intraday low of 0.7024 has been lacklustre. The hourly RSI momentum indicator has been capped below its descending resistance at around 58 (see Fig. 1).

These observations warrant caution that Monday’s rebound may be a “dead cat bounce” within a bearish structure that has been unfolding since the bearish break below the 50-day moving average on last Friday, 5 June 2026.

Watch the 0.7085/7100 key short-term pivotal resistance; a break below 0.7024 near-term support opens scope for potential weakness towards the next immediate supports at 0.7008/0.6995 and 0.6960/6945.

On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.7100 invalidates the bearish tone and opens the door to a squeeze up to retest the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which converge at the next intermediate resistance of 0.7120 and 0.7153.

• Dip buyers unleash historic chip rally: Following a brutal selloff that saw global tech benchmarks routed late last week, dip buyers returned to Wall Street in force. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 1.6%, and the S&P 500 jumped 0.3% to close above 7,405, powered by a massive 5.6% to 6.5% resurgence of semiconductor giants like Micron Technology and Intel Corp. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed, losing 0.2%.
• Trump ceasefire call caps geopolitical oil surge: Crude oil sharply pared its early 4% weekend gains after a tenuous, temporary ceasefire was brokered between Israel and Iran. While Israel hit petrochemical targets in southwestern Iran over the weekend, Reuters reported that both sides subsequently lifted flight and movement restrictions, signalling a tentative pause in direct hostilities.
• SpaceX counts down to historic $75 Billion IPO: Elon Musk’s SpaceX is moving ahead with plans to raise $75 billion by offering 555.6 million shares at a fixed price of $135 per share. The historic listing, scheduled for this Friday, skips typical bookbuilding price ranges due to massive pre-IPO institutional demand, commanding a fully diluted valuation of $1.77 trillion.
• Fed hike fears soften on wage metrics: While a massive 172,000 nonfarm payroll expansion on Friday initially stoked hawkish monetary fears, institutional desks spent the session reassessing the data. Wall Street sentiment turned positive as analysts noted a cooling trend in underlying wage growth, prompting banks to downplay the imminent risk of an October Fed rate hike.
• 'Sell Indonesia’ sweeps regional trading desks: Concerns over interventionist economic management and confusion regarding new commodity export rules have sent Indonesian assets into a spiral. Just five months after hitting a record high, the benchmark Jakarta stock index plunged, bringing its total decline to 36% and making it the worst-performing global index in 2026, while the rupiah collapsed to a new low of 18,180 against the dollar.

• A healthy reset in crowded tech allocations: Wall Street’s leading strategists messaged that last week’s deep pullback was an essential positioning reset rather than a structural market top. Citigroup aggressively raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,100 (a gain of around 9% from Monday’s S&P 500 closing level of 7.405), citing a significant step-up in corporate earnings power that will absorb upcoming mega-cap tech issuance, such as SpaceX and Anthropic.
• Cool reception for conceptual AI updates: Despite the broader chip sector’s explosive rebound, consumer tech companies bucked the trend. Apple Inc. shares slid 1.9% after investors gave a decidedly cool reception to the firm’s showcase of its next-generation AI platform, underscoring that markets are increasingly demanding immediate, quantifiable monetisation over product updates.
• Sovereign debt yield resurgence: As geopolitical alarms shifted to a low simmer in the Middle East, the safe-haven premium began draining from global bonds. Fixed-income yields remained anchored near multi-month highs, with global allocators bracing for massive upcoming government note auctions amid a structurally higher cost of capital.

Equities: The S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to settle at 7,405.73, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.6%. But market breadth was weak, with only 3 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors recording gains: Technology (+1.5%), Energy (+1.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.5 %). In Europe, the Stoxx 600 edged down 0.1% due to its lower semiconductor weighting.

Fixed Income: Yields pressed higher on hawkish central bank expectations. The US 10-year Treasury yield advanced to settle near 4.57%. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield ticked up to 3.06%, and the UK’s 10-year Gilt yield rose four basis points to 4.94%.

FX: The US Dollar Index lost its safe-haven traction, falling slightly by 0.1%. The euro caught a minor bid, hovering at $1.1538, while the British pound rested at $1.3350. The Japanese yen stabilised at around 160.20 per dollar.

Commodities: WTI crude finished up 1% on Monday to trade near $91.27/bbl, and Brent crude rose to trade near $94.10/bbl, both closing well below their early peaks. Spot gold clawed back a modest 0.05% to trade at $4,330/oz, hovering just above a near-term support of $4,250/oz.

• Stock markets under pressure: Before the New York tech rebound materialised, regional indices bore the brunt of global tech contagion. South Korea’s KOSPI index was severely damaged, falling by a staggering 5.5% on Friday as options market liquidations triggered a deep regional equity-clearing event. In today’s Asia opening session, technical rebounds have materialised, Nikkei 225 (+3.6%), KOSPI (+3.6%), CSI 300 (+0.3%), and STI (+0.9%).
• Rupiah trapped in historic lows: The Indonesian rupiah weakened about 7% year-to-date, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia in 2026, and fell further to a low of 18,180 against the US dollar, forcing emergency central bank smoothing interventions.
• BOJ intervention floor monitored: The Japanese yen remains deeply pinned against the greenback at around 160.20. The Bank of Japan remains on maximum alert for direct spot-market intervention as wide yield differentials continue to structurally favour the U.S. dollar.

1. Germany Balance of Trade (Apr) - 2.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
2. US Existing Home Sales (May) - 10.00 pm SGT (consensus: 4.06M, Apr: 4.02M) Impact: USD, US stock indices
3. ECB President Lagarde Speech - 10 Jun, 12.30 am SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• AI-driven equities face their biggest setback in months. A sharp selloff in semiconductor and technology stocks, triggered by valuation concerns and disappointing guidance from key AI-related companies, has halted the nine-week Wall Street rally and raised questions about the sustainability of the AI super cycle.
• Middle East tensions have reignited energy market risks. Fresh Iran-Israel hostilities pushed crude oil prices higher, reviving concerns over global energy supply disruptions and reinforcing inflationary pressures across major economies.
• Strong US labour data has revived expectations of a Fed rate hike. A significantly stronger-than-expected US payrolls report has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, driving Treasury yields higher, strengthening the US dollar, and tightening global financial conditions.
• Chart of the day: WTI crude gapped up and rebounded from minor ascending channel support at $91.40/bbl.

The price action of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for the WTI crude oil futures) gapped up by 3.3% in today’s Asia opening session to trade at $95.10 per barrel at this time of writing, erasing last Friday’s loss of 3%.

Near-term technicals have flipped bullish, as the hourly RSI momentum indicator exited oversold territory and broke out above its former descending resistance.

Watch the 91.40 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 95.45 would see the intermediate resistance at 100.00 (also close to the 20-day and 50-day moving averages) in the first step.

However, a break and an hourly close below 91.40 would signal a retest of the 29 May 2026 minor swing low at 89.00. Below it extends losses towards the next intermediate support at 85.50

• Tech deflates in brutal Wall Street reversal: Wall Street’s historic nine-week winning streak ground to a violent halt on Friday as a massive tech-led selloff intensified. The Nasdaq 100 Index plunged 4.8%, and a broad gauge of chipmakers tumbled 10% in its worst single-session routing in months, as growing anxiety over AI overvaluation triggered widespread institutional profit-taking.
• Geopolitical escalation as Iran fires on Israel: Middle East tensions exploded over the weekend. Following an Israeli strike on Beirut, Iran directed a massive salvo of missiles targeting Israeli territory. WTI and Brent crude futures immediately spiked 2.8% to hit at $92.70 and $95.40 a barrel in today’s Asia opening session, though gains moderated slightly after President Trump said the flare-up would not derail the overarching regional peace framework negotiations.
• Hot US jobs report shifts Fed target: The US labour market showed unexpected, robust resilience, with May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 positions, shattering the consensus forecast of 85,000. While the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, the red-hot hiring numbers prompted Fed funds futures traders to immediately price in a 60% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike as early as October 2026.

• The Great AI narrative fray: The unyielding “AI-drives-everything” bull market faced its harshest reality check over the weekend. A combination of hot macroeconomic data and localised tech earnings disappointment (e.g., Broadcom) has investors fiercely debating whether the current AI market cap demands a tactical correction, particularly as blockbuster private listings such as SpaceX threaten to drain liquidity from broader equity markets.
• The Mega-IPO liquidity drain: Wall Street trading desks are highly anxious over an unprecedented wave of massive capital calls coming to market. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has locked in a fixed $135/share price targeting a record-shattering $75 billion public raise this week, while generative AI giant Anthropic just filed confidentially for an IPO targeting a near 1$ trillion valuation. Capital allocators are actively selling existing liquid equities to free up space for these generational private tech entries.
• Sovereign bond yield resurgence: The combination of an inflationary energy supply shock and an unrelenting US jobs landscape has completely crushed any remaining expectations for central bank rate cuts. Two-year Treasury yields surged 10 basis points on Friday to 4.15%, signalling a profound multi-month repricing of global cost of capital.

Equities: S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.2% in early Asian trade before easing towards a slight gain of 0.01% and 0.35%, after Friday’s steep losses, where the S&P 500 sank 2.6%. The medium-term uptrend, which began late March 2026, has officially stalled.

Fixed Income: US Treasuries tumbled; two-year yields closed Friday up 10 bps to 4.15%. The 10-year Treasury yield extended its gains by another 4 bps t0 4.57% in early Monday trading, maintaining immense upward pressure.

FX: The US Dollar Index gained aggressively against all G-10 peers on a cocktail of safe-haven flows and the hawkish Fed rate adjustment. The Euro flattened out at $1.1519, a 2-month low, while the British Pound hovered defensively at $1.3317, near a 1-month low. In addition, the AUD tumbled to around a 2-month low of 0.7022, and the JPY grinded lower towards the recent intervention zone of 160.45/65 per US dollar.

Commodities: Brent crude gapped higher by 2.8% to trade at $95.40/bbl on the back of Iranian missile deployment. Spot Gold extended its losses from Friday, slipping to $4,315/oz as expectations of higher-for-longer global interest rates diminished its non-yielding appeal.

• Regional AI stocks routed: Tech-heavy Asian benchmarks bore the brunt of global tech contagion on Monday morning. South Korea’s Kospi index, the world’s top-performing gauge this year due to its exposure to memory and AI chips, tumbled 5.5% on Friday and opened 7% lower today. The Nikkei 225 also posted steep losses of 5%. Blood baths are seen in other Asia-Pacific benchmark stock indices: Hang Seng Index (-1.7%), China A50 (-1.6%), CSI 300 (-2.4%), ASX 200 (-0.7%), and STI (-1.4%).
• Currency interventions in play: The South Korean won slid to its weakest valuation framework since 2009 to an intraday high of 1,559 per US dollar in today’s Asia opening session, forcing the Seoul government to deploy an emergency series of curbs to support the currency. The Japanese Yen also remains deeply pinned, trading weakly at 160.30 per US dollar, keeping Bank of Japan intervention flags fully raised.
• Trade sentiment frozen: Early regional performance is further muted by traders waiting on major Chinese trade balance data later this week, as regional supply chains undergo structural realignment and linger amid lingering tariff anxieties.

1. New York Fed 1-YR Inflation Expectations (May) – 11.00 pm SGT Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indices
2. US-Iran peace talks/ceasefire developments Impact: All asset classes

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Bitcoin is under strong selling pressure, falling over 17% in a week and dropping below USD 60,000. The decline was intensified by USD 532 million in long liquidations on Binance, which triggered additional forced selling.
• Market sentiment worsened after Strategy sold part of its bitcoin holdings. Although the sale was small — 32 BTC for USD 2.5 million — it raised concerns that the largest corporate bitcoin holder could make further sales in the future.
• The broader crypto market is weak due to macro and demand concerns. Strong U.S. labor data reduced hopes for rate cuts, retail investors are shifting toward AI-related tech stocks, ETF inflows remain too small to support prices, and security concerns after the Zcash vulnerability further damaged trust.

Bitcoin has come under heavy selling pressure and has already lost more than 17 percent since the beginning of the week. On Friday, its price fell below the psychological barrier of USD 60,000, increasing investor concerns about a further deepening of the correction. Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-week SMA for the first time in three years. From its all-time high near USD 126,000, the leading cryptocurrency has already lost more than half of its value.

Long liquidations increase pressure on the market

The scale of the declines was amplified by the forced closure of leveraged positions. Over the past 24 hours, long positions worth USD 532 million were liquidated on the Binance exchange. Such a large wave of liquidations shows that many investors betting on a bitcoin rebound were forced to close their positions, which further increased selling pressure in the market.

This mechanism often deepens declines, as automatic liquidations lead to further sell orders. As a result, the market can move more sharply than would be implied solely by incoming macroeconomic data or the decisions of the largest investors.

Strategy’s Bitcoin sale weighed on sentiment

One of the factors worsening sentiment was the news that Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and a company associated with Michael Saylor, had sold part of its bitcoin holdings. The company sold 32 bitcoins for USD 2.5 million. Although the transaction was small compared with the company’s overall portfolio, it carried significant symbolic weight.

It was only Strategy’s second bitcoin sale since it began making purchases in 2020. The company explained the decision as necessary to pay coupons to holders of preferred shares, but investors interpreted it as a possible weakening of the long-standing narrative of holding bitcoin indefinitely.

The market is primarily concerned that this small sale could foreshadow further, larger transactions in the future. This risk was highlighted by Peter Schiff, a well-known bitcoin critic, who stressed that the problem is not the scale of the current sale itself, but its potential consequences for investor confidence. Before this transaction, Strategy had reportedly purchased a total of 843,738 BTC for nearly USD 64 billion, which is why any change in the company’s strategy is being closely watched by the market.

Declines spread across the entire cryptocurrency market

Selling pressure was not limited to bitcoin. Ethereum fell by around 23 percent over the week to USD 1,555, while Solana lost about 22 percent, dropping to USD 63.75. Weakness was also visible in shares of companies linked to cryptocurrencies. Strategy’s stock fell by almost 10 percent, while Coinbase shares declined by 8.4 percent.

A modest positive signal came from inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs yesterday after 13 days of outflows. However, the scale of these inflows, amounting to just over USD 3 million, was too small to change the overall market picture. In practice, this means that institutional demand remains too weak to effectively stop the current sell-off.

Strong U.S. Data reduces hopes for rate cuts

Sentiment was also hurt by strong data from the U.S. labor market. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, clearly above expectations. Such data reduces the likelihood of swift interest rate cuts in the United States, which is unfavorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The strong labor market report weakened the narrative of imminent monetary policy easing, while bitcoin currently lacks a clear macroeconomic catalyst that could support a rebound.

Retail investors shift their attention to tech stocks

An additional problem for the crypto market is the outflow of some retail investors toward technology stocks, especially companies linked to artificial intelligence. Retail investors have largely left the cryptocurrency market and returned to equities, making it difficult to identify new sources of demand for bitcoin.

In an environment of weakening interest and a lack of fresh capital, every negative piece of news can trigger a stronger price reaction. This applies both to macroeconomic data and to decisions by major entities holding significant bitcoin reserves.

Security issues weaken trust in Crypto

The cryptocurrency market is also struggling with concerns over trust in the security of blockchain technology. Investors paid particular attention to a vulnerability in the Zcash network, after which the cryptocurrency’s price fell by more than 40 percent in a single day. Developers fixed the bug, but they were unable to clearly determine whether it had been exploited to create additional tokens.

This situation increased concerns that increasingly advanced artificial intelligence models may in the future help detect similar vulnerabilities in other cryptocurrency projects. For a market already under downward pressure, such information further worsens sentiment.

Lack of new sources of demand makes a rebound difficult

The current sell-off in bitcoin is the result of several negative factors overlapping: strong U.S. economic data, reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, investors shifting toward technology stocks, concerns about Strategy’s future actions, trust issues related to the security of some crypto projects, and the large scale of long liquidations in the leveraged instruments market.

Bitcoin remains under pressure, and the lack of clear new sources of demand means that a quick and sustained rebound may be difficult. The market appears weakened, and investors are watching increasingly closely to see whether the drop below USD 60,000 proves to be only a brief breach of an important level or a continuation of the downward trend that began in October 2025.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• EUR/USD remains resilient ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, supported by expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain a more aggressive tightening path than the Federal Reserve despite weak Eurozone growth.
• Interest-rate expectations are becoming increasingly supportive for the euro, with the Eurozone-US policy rate differential narrowing as markets price additional ECB rate hikes while the Federal Reserve faces a more balanced growth-versus-inflation trade-off.
• Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD may be forming a near-term base above key channel support at 1.1580, with improving momentum signalling a potential short-term recovery toward the 1.1645–1.1720 resistance zone.

Ahead of today’s critical US Nonfarm Payrolls release, the EUR/USD pair has been grinding sideways around the 1.1610-1.1620 zone, showing resilience amid a fundamentally strong US Dollar environment.

The primary catalyst today will be the US labour market data. According to Reuters, the US economy is expected to have added 85,000 jobs in May, representing a slowdown from April’s 115,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

A “slow-hire, slow-fire” equilibrium continues to anchor the US labour market, keeping conditions stable enough for the Federal Reserve to maintain its higher-for-longer stance. In fact, market pricing from the Fed funds futures market currently reflects a roughly 60% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by the Fed at its December 2026 meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Earlier this week, mixed signals, from stronger ADP and JOLTS data to an uptick in weekly jobless claims (225K), have kept traders cautious, clipping the USD slightly in recent sessions.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the Euro is being supported by an aggressively hawkish European Central Bank (ECB). Despite the Eurozone facing stagflation risks, with Q1 GDP growth a meagre 0.1% q/q, inflation remains sticky, hitting 3.2% y/y, largely driven by energy shocks.

Consequently, the latest Reuters polling indicates the ECB is highly likely to hike its deposit rate to 2.25% next week, providing a solid floor for the single currency and countering the dollar’s strength.

Also, the monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for the Eurozone and the US, based on short-term interest rate futures, have steepened.

The Eurozone/US implied policy rate curve spread in August 2026 has increased to -1.28% from June 2026’s print of -1.45% and shifted upwards from -1.45% three months ago (see Fig. 1).

These observations suggest that the ECB is likely to be more hawkish or less dovish than the Fed, reinforcing a “floor” on the EUR/USD.

Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the EUR/USD from a technical analysis perspective.

Trend bias: Bullish bias above 1.1580 medium-term pivotal support for a minor recovery (see Fig. 2).

Resistances: 1.1645/1660 (also the 20-day moving average), 1.1685 (also the 200-day moving average), 1.1720 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of prior decline from 6 May 2026 high to 21 May 2026 low).

Supports: 1.610/1595 (4 June 2026 minor low & medium-term ascending channel support from 13 Mar 2026 low), 1.1580 (MT pivot), 1.1555 (7 April 2026 congestion).

• The recent sideways movement in EUR/USD since 21 May 2026 has formed a base/floor just above the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since the 13 March 2026 low.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout after finding support on its ascending trendline, suggesting a potential resurgence of short-term bullish momentum.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The AI-driven equity rally is showing signs of fatigue after Broadcom’s disappointing guidance triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor and cybersecurity stocks, prompting investors to rotate into more defensive and cyclical sectors.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to a record high as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns, while hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations supported industrial, financial, and value-oriented sectors.
• Indonesia has emerged as a major source of regional market stress, with the rupiah and local equities suffering significant capital outflows amid concerns over government intervention policies, raising broader emerging-market contagion risks across Asia.
• Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100 minor uptrend from 19 May 2026 at risk of breaking down below 30,535 key short-term resistance.

The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has staged a bearish breakdown below its minor ascending channel support, taken from the 19 May 2026 low, after it printed a fresh intraday all-time high of 30,773 on Wednesday, 5 June 2026.

Yesterday’s bearish reaction close to the former ascending channel support implies that the minor uptrend phase from the 10 May 2026 low is in jeopardy.

Watch the 30,535 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 30,000 near-term support may trigger a minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at 29,700 (also the 20-day moving average), and 29,410.

However, a clearance with an hourly close above 30,535 invalidates the bearish tone and extends the bullish impulsive up move, with the current all-time high area at 30,728/795, before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 31,050 (Fibonacci extension).

• Tech sector wobbles on Broadcom outlook: Broadcom Inc. shares slumped 14% to 15% in premarket trading after its semiconductor revenue forecast fell short of expectations. This triggered a broader tech selloff that also hit cybersecurity firms like CrowdStrike, which dropped 10%.
• Dow surges as oil eases: Reversing yesterday’s spike, WTI and Brent crude prices dropped by 2%-3% to fall back to around $95-83 a barrel as traders eyed a potential Iran deal following news of a Lebanon-Israel ceasefire. This relief in energy costs propelled the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 875 points (1.70%) to a record high.
• Middle East ceasefire complications: While oil prices initially fell on ceasefire hopes, US efforts to halt fighting in Lebanon were undermined after the pro-Iran Hezbollah movement rejected the new truce and Israel said it would not withdraw troops. Progress in US-Iran talks has also stalled.
• Indonesian markets plunge: Indonesian assets are in a severe selloff, with the benchmark stock index tumbling 36% from its record high five months ago, making it the worst-performing market globally this year. The rupiah fell by over 7% amid concerns about President Prabowo Subianto’s interventionist policies.

• AI Enthusiasm meets reality check: The “parabolic” rally in semiconductor and AI stocks is taking a breather. Investors are rotating out of tech and into other sectors viewed as better positioned for a resilient economy, re-evaluating the immediate revenue returns of massive AI infrastructure spending.
• Emerging-market contagion risks: The rapid withdrawal of foreign capital from Indonesia underscores the vulnerability of emerging markets to populist political shifts. The South Korean won also fell to its weakest level since 2009 at 1,545 per USD, indicating broader pressure on Asian currencies as the Iran war drags on.
• Energy security and inflation: Oil markets remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with the Saudi energy minister calling for stability at a Russian economic forum to prevent a loss of energy sustainability. Markets are weighing whether oil-driven inflation pressures could force a US interest rate hike as soon as October.

Equities: S&P 500 futures slipped to 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.1% in today’s early Asia session. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record high on sector rotation on Thursday, 4 June. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% amid its lower tech weighting. The UK’s FTSE 100 added 0.3%.

Fixed Income: Shorter-term US Treasuries rebounded, with the US 2-year yield declining 4 basis points to 4.05% ahead of today’s US non-farm payroll report, while the US 10-year yield held steady at around 4.48%.

FX: The US Dollar Index fell 0.1%. The euro rose 0.4% intraday to $1.1645 before closing lower at $1.1611 on Thursday, 4 June. The Japanese yen strengthened slightly to 159.77-159.85 per USD before rebounding to 160.00 (close to prior intervention levels).

Commodities: WTI crude fell by 3.4% to around $92.92/bbl. Spot gold rebounded by 0.9% to $4,475/oz but remained below its 20-day moving average at around $4,544/oz.

• Tech-heavy markets suffer: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8% to 1.3%, dragged down by the US tech selloff. South Korea’s KOSPI tumbled 5% intraday, acting as a bellwether for regional AI investments. Across the board, weakness was seen in key Asia Pacific benchmark stock indices today: Nikkei 225 (-1.6%), Hang Seng Index (-0.8%), China A50 (-0.1%), ASX 200 (-0.7%), and STI (-0.3%).
• Currency Interventions looming: The South Korean won hit its weakest level since 2009. Authorities in Indonesia and the Philippines are stepping up efforts to support their currencies as policymakers near the limits of their currency defences.
• Indonesian rout: The “sell Indonesia” trade is dominating the region, with massive foreign capital outflows from both bonds and equities following President Prabowo’s move to take direct control of key commodity exports.

1. US Nonfarm Payrolls (May) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: +85K, Apr: +115K) Impact: All asset classes
2. US Unemployment Rate (May) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.3%, Apr: 4.3%) Impact: All asset classes
3. US-Iran peace talks/ceasefire developments Impact: All asset classes

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average is showing increasing signs of relative weakness, underperforming major US equity benchmarks since the March 2026 market recovery and now facing a potential bearish reversal after breaking below a key ascending channel support.
• Renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve policy have tightened financial conditions, creating headwinds for cyclical sectors that dominate the Dow Jones.
• A bear-flattening US Treasury yield curve is raising concerns about bank profitability and financial-sector performance, particularly given Financials’ large weighting in the DJIA.

Following up on our earlier structural concerns regarding narrow market breadth and the underlying vulnerabilities of traditional cyclical sectors, on Wednesday, 3 June 2026, price action offered a stark confirmation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posted a significant pullback, dropping 1.21% to close at 50,692. Notably, the index opened near its high of 51,220.92 and steadily ground lower throughout the day, closing exactly on the session lows.

So far, since the start of the current medium-term bullish trend on 30 March 2026, the DJIA has remained the underperformer among its peers despite hitting a recent fresh all-time high earlier this week with a gain of just 12.1% versus the S&P 500 (+19.1%), small-cap Russell 2000 (+19.9%), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (+33.2%) (see. Fig. 1).

The primary catalyst for this aggressive risk-off rotation was an escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Fresh threats to the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, alongside reports of launched or attempted retaliatory strikes, sent shockwaves through risk assets.

This geopolitical premium immediately bid up the energy complex, with both WTI and Brent crude jumping by around2%.

Adding fuel to the fire, the US Treasury market resumed its hawkish repricing. The rising expectations of a more hawkish Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh have been putting sustained upward pressure on yields.

Yesterday, Treasury yields climbed once again, placing a heavier discount rate on equities and tightening financial conditions further.

In addition, the hawkish repricing has pushed the 2-year US Treasury yield up by 40 basis points since mid-April 2026, outpacing the 10-year yield and resulting in a bear-flattening of the yield curve (see Fig. 2).

Bear flattening typically signals tighter financial conditions, which pressure bank profitability and, in turn, create a negative feedback loop in the DJIA, as the Financials sector carries the largest weight of around 27%.

Let’s now unpack the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the DJIA from a technical analysis perspective.

Trend bias: Bearish reversal of medium-term uptrend, 51,075 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 3).

Supports: 50,541/390 (former all-time high area of 10 February 2026), 50,107 (also close to the 20-day moving average), 49,780 (former minor highs of 18 May/19 May 2026).

Next resistances: 51,320/390 (current all-time high area), 51,566/654 (Fibonacci extension cluster), 51,930/955 (Fibonacci extension).

• The price action of the US Wall Street 30 CFD has broken below its minor ascending channel support from the 20 May 2026 low, putting the near-term bullish trend in jeopardy.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed a bearish divergence signal.

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If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
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• Renewed clashes between the U.S. and Iran involving Kuwait and Bahrain reignited geopolitical concerns, driving oil prices sharply higher and triggering a broad risk-off move across global equity markets.
• The AI-led technology rally faced its first meaningful challenge after Broadcom's disappointing guidance raised concerns about the pace of AI infrastructure revenue growth, prompting investors to reassess near-term earnings expectations across the sector.
• Rising energy prices, resilient economic activity, and persistent inflation pressures have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy, with markets increasingly pricing a more hawkish Federal Reserve and a near-certain June rate hike from the European Central Bank.
• Chart of the day: WTI crude minor bullish trend remains intact above $95.10/bbl, key support with potential upside trigger at $100.00/bbl.

The minor bullish trend of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) from the last Friday, 29 May 2026 low of $88.90/bbl remains intact (see Fig. 1).

Supported by an ascending trendline, watch the 95.10 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the 100.00 near-term resistance (also the 20-day and 50-day moving averages) is likely to reinforce a further potential minor recovery towards the next intermediate resistances at 102.56 and 106.70.

On the flipside, failure to hold and an hourly close below 95.10 invalidates the bullish tone, setting up a choppy decline to retest the next intermediate supports at 91.40 and 89.00.

• US-Iran clashes disrupt peace: Overnight clashes between the US and Iran involving Kuwait and Bahrain resulted in one of the most serious flare-ups since the early April ceasefire, driving a sharp risk-off rotation across global markets.
• Tech AI rally falters: Broadcom Inc. issued a disappointing forecast signalling decelerating AI-fueled sales growth. This dragged down the broader tech sector, overshadowing early enthusiasm for Alphabet Inc.’s upsized $84.75 billion equity raise and SpaceX’s planned $75 billion IPO at $135 a share.
• Inflation risks trigger hawkish bets: Resilient consumer demand, corporate job additions, and a fresh surge in energy costs are fueling expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. Markets are increasingly betting the next Fed move will be a hike, while fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike for the ECB’s June 11 meeting.

• Geopolitical threat to energy supply: The renewed escalation in Middle East hostilities threatens to derail negotiations to extend the recent truce and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This is directly pressuring global energy supply lines and pushing crude prices higher.
• AI growth meets reality check: The stark contrast between massive capital raises in the tech space and Broadcom’s weak forward guidance suggests the AI sector is facing resistance, prompting investors to re-evaluate the near-term revenue potential of AI infrastructure.
• Central banks cornered by inflation: The combination of a robust labour market and a sudden commodity shock leaves central bankers trapped. Policymakers are under immense pressure to raise or maintain borrowing costs to prevent inflation from reigniting, directly stalling the recent equity rally.

Equities: The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, snapping a nine-day winning streak. The Dow dropped 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.3%. Software ETFs slid 4.3%. Globally, the MSCI World Index reversed early record highs, closing down 0.7%.

Fixed Income: The US 10-year Treasury yield advanced 5 bps to 4.49%. In Europe, Germany’s 10-year yield rose 6 bps to 3.04%, and Britain’s 10-year yield climbed 7 bps to 4.93%.

FX: The US Dollar Index rose 0.3% on safe-haven flows and hawkish rate bets. The Euro declined 0.3% to $1.1598, and the British Pound fell 0.3% to $1.3420.

Commodities: WTI crude surged 2.8% to $96.20/bbl, while Brent briefly topped $97/bbl amid geopolitical fears. Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,435/oz, pressured by higher yields and a stronger USD to retest its key 200-day moving average.

• Stock markets are undergoing a setback: Moving in line with weak performances seen in the US stock market overnight, key Asia Pacific stock indices are on the defensive and in profit-taking mode in today’s Asia session, where intraday losses were seen across the board. Nikkei 225 (-1.4%), KOSPI (-1.5%), Hang Seng Index (-1.5%), China A50 (-1.5%), CSI 300 (-0.8%), ASX 200 (-1.2%), and STI (-1.2%).
• Trade & tariffs optimism: Sentiment was partially supported by expectations of potential US tariff reductions on non-critical Chinese goods. Based on 2025 figures, this could cover approximately 10% of US imports from China, potentially revitalising direct exports.
• Yen intervention watch: The Japanese yen remained under significant pressure, falling 0.1% to hover near a multi-decade low of 160.08 per US dollar in today’s Asia opening session, leaving markets highly alert to potential intervention by the Bank of Japan. Key near-term support for the USD/JPY rests at 159.45 (Wednesday, 3 June 2026, minor swing low).

1. ECB President Lagarde Speech - 4:00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
2. US Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims - 8:30 pm SGT Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indices
3. Fed Speak (Barkin) - 8:30 pm SGT Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indices
4. BoE Governor Bailey Speech - 11.40 pm SGT Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FSTE UK 100

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Bitcoin plunged 16% over the past two weeks and briefly fell below the US$70,000 psychological level after MicroStrategy’s partial Bitcoin sale shattered the long-standing “never sell” narrative that had supported market sentiment.
• Despite the sharp decline, several contrarian indicators suggest selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, including an extremely oversold daily RSI reading, a surge in long-position liquidations, and signs of renewed accumulation by long-term holders.
• Technical and on-chain metrics indicate the potential for a near-term bullish reversal above the key US$62,250 support level, with upside targets at US$74,880 and US$82,815 if buying momentum returns.

Let’s unpack the primary drivers and the technical setup.

On Monday and Tuesday (1–2 June 2026), the cryptocurrency market absorbed a significant psychological blow. Spot BTC/USD tumbled sharply, slipping below the $70,000 psychological threshold and falling 16% over the past two weeks. It printed an intraday low of $65,370 on Wednesday, 3 June 2026.

The dominant driver of this week’s movement was the revelation that MicroStrategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, sold a portion of its holdings for the first time in four years.

While the market impact is less about the absolute volume of the sale and more about the erosion of consensus, it effectively shattered founder Michael Saylor’s widely echoed “never sell” iron law.

This pivot disrupted the pricing anchor the market had historically relied on, injecting uncertainty and triggering a wave of defensive selling.

The 16% plunge in BTC/USD has left it hovering just above its $62,250 key medium-term pivotal support and the lower boundary of its long-term secular ascending channel running from the December 2018 low.

In addition, the daily RSI momentum indicator hit a significant oversold level of 21.8 on Tuesday, 2 June 2026, its lowest since 5 February 2026, triggering a 35% rally in BTC/USD over the next three months.

Secondly, utilising TradingView’s crypto derivatives indicators for crypto futures and perpetual swaps, such as from Bybit, Binance, and OKX.

Aggregated long liquidation data (derived from various exchanges) spiked to $482 million on Tuesday, 2 June 2026, indicating that many leveraged long positions in Bitcoin futures and perpetual swaps were forced closed due to margin calls.

A similar rise in long liquidations ($481 million) also occurred on 5 February 2026, when capitulation led to a 35% rally in BTC/USD.

Thirdly, on-chain indicator: the percentage of 1-year active supply for Bitcoin has declined steadily over the past three weeks, from 40.3% on 23 April 2026 to 39.3% on Wednesday, 3 June 2026, at the time of writing.

Active supply 1-year measures the total number of unique cryptocurrency units that have moved at least once over the past 1 year. This metric tracks the portion of supply that has been involved in on-chain transactions during the trailing 365-day period.

A decreasing active supply often signals accumulation by long-term holders, a bullish condition for Bitcoin in the current context.

Hence, based on these factors, BTC/USD is now ripe for a potential near-term bullish reversal above the $62,250 key medium-term support, with intermediate resistance at $74,880. A clearance above it would signal a retest of the $82,815 medium-term resistance (also close to the 200-day moving average).

On the other hand, a daily close below $62,250 invalidates the recovery scenario and extends the corrective decline towards the $57,590/52,590 long-term pivotal support zone.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Global equities pushed to fresh record highs as investor enthusiasm broadened beyond mega-cap technology stocks into small-cap industrial, energy, and infrastructure companies benefiting from the ongoing AI investment boom.
• Strong labour market data and rising inflation pressures in both the U.S. and Eurozone reinforced expectations of a more hawkish global monetary policy environment, with markets increasingly pricing additional tightening from the ECB and Federal Reserve.
• Capital intensity within the AI supercycle is becoming a key market theme, highlighted by Alphabet’s US$80 billion equity raise to finance expanding AI infrastructure spending, raising questions about long-term capital efficiency and balance-sheet sustainability.
• Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100 minor bullish trend remains intact above 30,245 key short-term support.

• World Stocks hit historic peaks amid calm geopolitics: Major global equity indexes, including the S&P 500, MSCI All Country, MSCI Emerging Markets, and MSCI Asia ex-Japan, advanced to brand-new record highs on Tuesday. The broad rally was underpinned by a general calm across fixed-income and currency desks, alongside a lack of major shifts in U.S.-Iran border tensions.
• Alphabet stuns markets with unprecedented $80 billion equity capital raise: Google’s parent entity, Alphabet, shocked Wall Street by announcing an $80 billion equity financing program to back its staggering AI capital expenditures, which are projected to reach $200 billion this year. Legendary holding firm Berkshire Hathaway has already committed a major $10 billion block to the capital raise.
• U.S. JOLTS job openings surge to two-year peak: Economic indicators released on Tuesday revealed that U.S. job openings for April jumped to their highest absolute level in two years, led by a massive concentration in professional and business services. This rapid pace represents the quickest sequential expansion in five years, signalling robust labour demand.
• Eurozone inflation scales 3% handle in May, securing ECB June hike: Driven by structural forces, Eurozone headline consumer price inflation crossed the 3% y/y barrier for the first time since September 2023. Core inflation also rose higher to 2.5% y/y from 2.2% in April. These hot prints have effectively locked in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at next week’s ECB policy meeting, with traders pricing an additional 50 bps of tightening by year-end.

• The small-cap rotational AI capital drift: While multi-trillion dollar megacap behemoths capture mainstream headlines, an underlying structural rotation is developing. Tech and energy small caps are outperforming as critical components of the physical "picks and shovels” layer of the global AI buildout, allowing them to monetise large capex budgets away from over-concentrated tech heavyweights.
• Megacap liquidity demands & balance sheet fatigue: Alphabet’s massive $80 billion capital raise highlights growing cash demands among AI players. Despite boasting $126 billion in cash at the end of Q1, Alphabet’s massive capex burn rate, paired with $85 billion in fresh debt issuance over the past year, is prompting concerns over long-term capital efficiency.
• Sovereign monetary policy conundrums: Central banks globally are entering a synchronised tightening regime to squash persistent price pressures. With Eurozone inflation hot, the ECB is set to follow the G10 rate-hiking cohorts of Australia and Norway. Markets are subsequently pricing in a faster policy-tightening timeline from the Fed under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh.

Equities: The S&P 500 closed higher at fresh peaks with seven out of 11 sectors advancing, led by Utilities (+1.9%), Materials (+1.2%), and Industrials (+1%). Small-caps and non-tech cyclicals dramatically outperformed, while European bourses rallied 0.8% and the UK FTSE added 0.3%.

Fixed Income: Global sovereign bonds enjoyed a rare relief bid. The long end of the U.S. Treasury curve rallied, dropping yields by 3 basis points. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield plunged a massive 11 basis points following a highly successful auction, registering its steepest single-day drop since April 2023.

FX: The U.S. Dollar Index continued to trade within a minor range between 99.50 and 98.90, while the USD/JPY inched higher towards the critical 160.00 intervention threshold, keeping Japanese authorities on high alert. Conversely, digital safe havens buckled, with Bitcoin sliding 6% to break toward $66,000, printing an intraday low of $65,370 in today’s Asia opening session.

Commodities: Energy markets firmed modestly, with crude oil contracts adding 1% amid uncertainty over an interim US-Iran peace deal. Precious metals stabilised, with spot gold holding steady near $4,484/oz as investors balanced sticky global yields with Middle East headlines, but remained capped below its 20-day moving average at $4,580.

• Stock indices surge to records: Mirroring global risk-on transitions, regional bourses posted strong sessions. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index climbed to an all-time record, building on Monday’s massive 4.0% single-session explosion in South Korea. In today’s Asia opening session, rotation has been seen among Hong Kong shares and China’s “A” shares. The Hang Seng Index slid -1.7% intraday, while China A 50 and the broader CSI 300 index rose around 1.5% each. The outperformance of China “A” shares has been driven by an expansion in service activities, as the RatingDog Services PMI rose to 54.4 in May from 52.6 in the prior month.
• Japanese bond volatility: The 11 bps collapse in the 10-year JGB yield has significantly adjusted near-term domestic yields. However, markets remain tightly focused on the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy meeting next week, where the central bank is widely expected to signal a clear path for interest rate normalisation and tapering.
• Chinese energy inventories: Highlighting real-world supply shifts, data show that China is aggressively drawing down its domestic onshore crude stockpiles to replace regular oil imports, which have plunged to a 10-year absolute low due to high international costs.

1. BoJ Governor Ueda Speech - 4.30 pm SGT Impact: USD/JPY, JPY crosses, short-term JGBs, Nikkei 225
2. US ADP Employment Change (May) - 8:15 pm SGT (consensus: +117K, Apr: +109K) Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indices, Gold
3. US ISM Services PMI (May) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: 53.8, Apr: 53.6) Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indices, Gold

The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel in place since the 19 May 2026 low at 28,588.

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator remains in a healthy bullish momentum condition (above the 60 level).

These observations suggest its minor uptrend phase remains intact. Watch the 30,245 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push up. A clearance above 30,795 points to the next intermediate resistance at 31,050 (Fibonacci extension).

However, failure to hold and an hourly close below 30,245 would negate the bullish tone, signalling a minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at 30,000 and even 29,700 (close to the 20-day moving average).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.