• Stagflation fears returned sharply as President Trump’s threat of hard strikes on Iran pushed WTI crude back above US$90, while hot US CPI data reinforced expectations of a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve policy stance.
• Technology and AI-linked equities remain under heavy pressure as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sold off, weighed down by stretched valuations, semiconductor weakness, and concerns that mega tech IPOs may drain liquidity from public markets.
• Asia Pacific markets opened weaker amid global risk-off sentiment, with tech-heavy indices such as South Korea’s KOSPI and Taiwan’s TAIEX leading losses, while regional currencies remained under stress near multi-year lows.
• Chart of the day: Dow Jones (DJIA) rotation play evaporated; potential transition to a medium-term downtrend phase, with key short-term resistance at 50,390/540.

The earlier outperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday, 9 June, which eked out a 0.2% gain amid steep losses in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, has evaporated.

The last price action of the US Wall Street 30 CFD (a proxy for the DJIA E-mini futures) plummeted 1.9% on Wednesday, 11 June, and broke below its 20-day moving average, with a daily close below it (see Fig. 1).

Prior to the bearish breakdown of its 20-day moving average, the US Wall Street 30 CFD has breached below the medium-term ascending channel support from its 30 March 2026 low on Tuesday. These observations suggest the medium-term uptrend phase from 30 March 2026 has been demagaed, and it is now transiting into a potential medium-term downtrend phase.

Watch the 50,390/540 key short-term pivotal resistance for further potential weakness towards the next intermediate supports at 49,730 and 49,250/095 in the near-term.

On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 50,540 invalidates the minor bearish bias scenario for a corrective rebound for a retest on the next intermediate resistance at 50,895.

• Trump threatens hard strikes on Iran, crude rebounds past $90: Geopolitical tensions erupted into a volatile escalation on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. will be “attacking them, attacking them very hard.” The aggressive stance followed overnight strikes that damaged a fragile two-month truce, prompting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to surge by more than 3% back above $90 as hopes for a quick resolution faded.
• Wall Street rout wipes out weekly advances as megacaps slump: Equity markets experienced a broad liquidation as the S&P 500 tumbled 1.6%, wiping out this week’s gains. Risk-off sentiment intensified as major technology firms and a closely watched semiconductor gauge (SOX) slid 3.6%, adding to anxieties over stretched AI valuations.
• US CPI jumped to almost a 3-year high, reinforced hawkish rate vibes: The U.S. Labour Department released a red-hot consumer price index data that showed an increase of 4.2% y/y in May, its highest level since April 2023, threatening sticky, energy-driven inflation and renewed fears of an emergency Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year-end.
• AI Capital demands are raising concerns about an institutional liquidity drain: Wall Street strategists are signalling alarm about an unprecedented wave of equity supply from private tech giants looking to fund AI ambitions. Capital allocators note that mega-cap private listings, including SpaceX’s fixed $135/share offering and Anthropic’s confidential IPO tracking, are forcing funds to dump liquid public equities to build necessary cash reserves.
• Amazon’s expansion of its shipping service targets major trucking routes: Shares of several large transportation and logistics companies plunged on Wednesday. The aggressive drop came immediately after Amazon.com Inc. announced a sweeping expansion of its proprietary internal shipping network, directly rattling the commercial freight sector.

• The return of the stagflation dilemma: The core structural narrative guiding global macro desks shifted violently away from a “soft landing” and straight back toward stagflation risk. While consumer price metrics print near-stable levels, the persistence of an energy supply crunch amid direct military friction across the Middle East keeps input costs highly elevated. If the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor faces prolonged or indefinite disruptions, oil-driven price pressures will override corporate margin resilience, forcing global central banks to lean toward hawkish policies despite weakening economic output.
• The AI funding bottleneck and private Issuance pressures: An underlying undercurrent to the weakness in public technology markets is a massive, looming structural drain of institutional capital. A flood of major private corporations seeking public capital to fund intensive infrastructure requirements threatens to crowd out standard secondary-market liquidity. As capital allocators clear the deck for multi-billion and near-trillion-dollar valuations across private artificial intelligence and defence aerospace firms, existing public tech listings are facing a persistent ceiling on structural bids.
• Cross-asset volatility inversion: As standard multi-asset insurance models begin to fray, correlations across traditionally inverse asset classes are breaking down. Bond market volatility metrics remain structurally elevated near multi-decade highs, driven by shifting policy outlooks in Tokyo, Frankfurt, and Washington. Rather than serving as an organic buffer, fixed income has become an active vector of volatility, driving stock market risk premiums significantly higher year-to-date.

Equities: The S&P 500 lost 1.6%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 declined 2% as hardware and semiconductor names underperformed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.9% amid weakness in consumer retail and logistics. In Europe, the STOXX 600 retreated amid concerns about industrial vulnerabilities.

In today’s Asia opening session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures staged a relief bounce of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively after US Central Command declared that military strikes on Iranian targets have been “completed’.

Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds posted modest losses as safe-haven bids failed to fully offset hawkish rate-hike fears. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note advanced 4 basis points to settle near 4.55%. Internationally, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield advanced 3 basis points to 3.08%, and the UK’s 10-year Gilt yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.95%.

FX: The US Dollar Index traded almost unchanged on Wednesday as market participants await the ECB’s new monetary policy guidance today after fully pricing in a 25 bps hike for today’s policy meeting. The euro traded flat at 1.1535, and the British pound rested virtually unchanged at $1.3368.

The Japanese yen inched up by 0.1%, hovering around 160.50 per dollar, just a whisker below the 30 April 2026 high of 160.73 that triggered intervention from Japanese authorities. The worst performer was the risk-sensitive AUD, which fell 0.4% to a 2-month low of 0.7000 per dollar.

Commodities: Energy-dominated resource complexes, with WTI crude jumping 3.5% to settle at $91.84/bbl on Trump’s geopolitical remarks. Conversely, spot gold collapsed 4.4% to trade at $4,072/oz as non-yielding safe-havens buckled under the higher-for-longer assumption of global sovereign yields.

• Equity indices retest key support levels: Driven lower by deep overnight liquidation across New York tech megacaps, regional APAC benchmarks tracked heavy downside on Thursday, Asia opening session. Speculative positioning in tech-concentrated hubs such as South Korea’s KOSPI (-2.4%) and Taiwan’s benchmark TAIEX (-2.3%) came under intense pressure amid declines in local semiconductor companies. Intraday losses were seen in other bourses: Nikkei 225 (-1.5%), Hang Seng Index (-1.4%), China A50 (-0.3%), CSI 300 (-0.4%), ASX 200 (-0.3%), and STI (-0.5%).
• Regional currencies hit 17-year lows: Underlying currency defence limits remain under extreme stress across Asia. The South Korean Won continued to trade near a severe 17-year low of 1,530 against the greenback, prompting localised currency stability committees to keep maximum alert flags raised.
• Indonesian Rupiah anchors following emergency actions: Following a surprise emergency interest rate hike implemented during the prior session by Bank Indonesia to insulate the local capital account from global capital flight, the Indonesian Rupiah showed tentative signs of consolidation, holding its hard floor against the U.S. Dollar as it rebounded for the consecutive session from its record low of 18,180 printed on Monday, 8 June 2026.

1. ECB Interest Rate Decision - 8:15 pm SGT (consensus: 25 bps hike) Impact: EUR, EUR crosses, DAX, Bunds
2. US PPI (May) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 5.4% y/y, Apr: 5.2% y/y) Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indices, Gold
3. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 pm SGT Impact: USD, shorter-term US Treasuries, US stock indices
4. ECB Press Conference - 8:45 pm SGT Impact: EUR, EUR crosses, DAX, Bunds
5. US - Iran ceasefire agreement Impact: All asset classes

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• USD/JPY remains supported by a widening US-Japan yield differential. Markets are increasingly pricing a more hawkish Federal Reserve, with rising expectations of a Fed rate hike later in 2026, while the Bank of Japan appears likely to slow or pause its bond tapering programme despite an expected rate increase next week.
• The pair is approaching a key intervention zone near 160.40–160.70. Japanese authorities have already spent a record amount defending the yen earlier this year, making this area a critical level where renewed verbal or direct intervention risks may emerge.
• Technical momentum remains constructive in the near term. USD/JPY continues to trade within both a medium-term ascending wedge and a shorter-term rising channel, with momentum indicators remaining supportive of a further advance toward the 160.65, 161.14/20, and 161.60/95 resistance levels.

The market enters today’s US CPI print, facing building macro headwinds and energy shocks stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Following a complete evaporation of Fed rate-cut bets for 2026, the market is aggressively positioned for a bear-flattening yield curve environment under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. With futures now pricing in a 61% probability of a 25-bps hike in October, an upside surprise in today’s CPI, potentially pushing inflation to multi-year highs, will solidify the higher-for-longer regime and maintain structural upward pressure on the greenback.

Next week (June 15-16), the Bank of Japan is widely expected to shift its narrative toward becoming an active “inflation fighter”. Aggregated polls show nearly 94% of economists expect Governor Ueda to deliver a 25-basis-point hike, lifting the short-term policy rate to 1.00% from 0.75%, a level last seen in 1995. This hawkish tilt is directly responsive to the persistent inflationary impulses generated by the US-Iran war.

Crucially, to mitigate political friction with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and stabilise a volatile sovereign bond market where the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has recently hit a 30-year high of 2.8%, the BoJ is leaning towards pausing or slowing its bond-purchase taper next fiscal year.

By freezing further monthly purchase reductions (potentially keeping them steady near 2.1 trillion yen), the central bank hopes to cap the blowout of debt-servicing costs before yields breach the painful 3% threshold.

The shorter-term yield spread between the 2-year US Treasury and the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) has started to widen since hitting a 4-year low of 2.12% earlier in February 2026, which is also just a whisker above a major support of 2.05% (see Fig. 1).

The spread of the 2-year US Treasury-JGB yield has rebounded by 60 basis points to 2.72% as of Wednesday, 9 June 2026, which implies that the US Federal Reserve is adopting a more hawkish monetary policy stance over the Bank of Japan, in turn putting downside pressure on the Japanese yen as it flirts around the prior intervention area of 160.40/70, where Vice Finance Minister Mimura, in charge of foreign exchange issued a “final verbal warning” to speculators on 30 April 2026 before actual intervention took place on the same day.

Japanese authorities have spent a record $ 74.1 billion in the latest round of FX intervention to buy yen between 30 April 2026 and 6 May 2026, according to Finance Ministry data.

Let’s now unpack the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.

Trend bias: Minor uptrend with key short-term support pivotal at 159.75.

Resistances: 160.65 (30 Apr 2026 high), 161.14/20 (4/9 Jul 2024 congestion & Fibonacci extension), 161.60/95 (long-term pivot) (see Fig. 3).

Next supports: 159.45 (1/3 Jun 2026 congestion & 20-day MA), 159.10 (29 May 2026 low), 158.80 (21/25 May 2026 low & 50-day MA).

• Price actions of the USD/JPY have been oscillating within a medium-term “Ascending Wedge” configuration since the 27 January 2026 low, with its upper boundary coming in at 161.60/95 (see Fig.2).
• The recent minor uptrend phase remains intact, as price action in USD/JPY continues to evolve within a minor ascending channel in place from the 29 May 2026 low at 159.10 (see Fig. 3).
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator remains short-term bullish, holding above the 50 level (see Fig. 3).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Technology stocks remain under pressure as the AI trade undergoes a valuation reset. Semiconductor shares led another volatile session, with investors rotating capital away from existing tech winners amid concerns over stretched valuations and a growing pipeline of mega-sized IPOs, including SpaceX and OpenAI.
• Geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive market sentiment. Renewed US-Iran tensions following President Trump’s comments reinforced concerns over energy security and global supply chains, keeping investors highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
• Central banks are increasingly focused on financial stability and currency defence. Bank Indonesia’s surprise rate hike and reports of a potential Bank of Japan taper pause highlight policymakers’ growing willingness to intervene amid mounting pressure on currencies and sovereign bond markets.
• Chart of the day: Gold (XAU/USD) looking to extend further potential losses below $4,100 with key short-term resistance at $4,268/285.

Gold (XAU/USD) has extended its losses by 2% in today’s Asia session to trade at an intraday level of $4,174, just a whisker away from the 23 March 2026 medium-term swing low of $4,100. Given that the price action of gold (XAU/USD) is firmly entrenched below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, its medium-term downtrend from the 29 January 2026 all-time high remains intact (see Fig. 1).

Watch the $4,268/285 key short-term pivotal resistance to hold, as it maintains the ongoing minor bearish impulsive down move sequence, exposing the next intermediate supports at $4,187/167 and $4,100. Breaking below $4,100 may see a further deceleration towards $4,032 next in the first step.

However, a clearance with an hourly close above $4,285 negates the bearish tone, opening the door for another minor corrective rebound to retest the next intermediate resistance at $4,373/394 in the first instance.

• Global tech rout intensifies as chipmakers tumble 9%: A heavy wave of selling battered technology sectors worldwide on Tuesday. The semiconductor gauge (SOX), which had initially attempted a fragile bounce, fell 9% intraday before trimming losses to 1.9% at the close on Tuesday, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.1% and erasing prior efforts to scale back toward recent peaks.
• US-Iran friction spikes over helicopter strike: Hopes for a quick resolution to Middle East geopolitical conflicts faded after U.S. President Donald Trump publicly declared that the United States must actively respond to an Iranian attack on an American helicopter. The comments triggered immediate volatility across commodities and energy equities.
• Mega-cap tech IPO pipeline crowds public liquidity: Capital desks note that extreme equity volatility is being exacerbated by a massive pipeline of new tech listings. Following news that SpaceX’s landmark initial public offering is drawing extensive institutional oversubscription, OpenAI has formally filed a confidential U.S. IPO registration, aiming to chase rivals Anthropic and SpaceX toward historic multi-billion- and trillion-dollar public valuations.
• Bank of Indonesia taps emergency controls via surprise hike: In regional foreign exchange management, Bank Indonesia delivered an unannounced, surprise interest rate hike early Tuesday. The emergency monetary intervention successfully arrested a historic slide in the Indonesian Rupiah, triggering a strong short-covering bounce. The IDR extended its gains in today’s Asia session by 0.8% to trade at 17,990 per US dollar.
• Bank of Japan reportedly mulls taper pause: Fixed-income desks reacted aggressively to circulating reports that the Bank of Japan is actively considering a temporary pause or deceleration of its previously signalled bond-buying taper. The news triggered an immediate localised rally in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), the 10-year JGB yield dipped by 3 bps on Tuesday to close at 2.68%, still holding above its 50-day moving average at around 2.55%.

• The great funding drainage and valuation recalibration: The intensifying rotation out of richly priced technology names is evolving beyond a simple narrative shift. Institutional desks are increasingly highlighting a fundamental funding dilemma across global equities. With SpaceX seeking a massive $75 billion capital raise, Anthropic progressing through its listing path, and OpenAI targeting a public valuation of up to $1 trillion, large institutional allocators are being forced to trim existing liquid technology winners to make way for these massive generational private-market entries. This liquidity drain is actively structuring a ceiling on near-term public tech momentum.
• Geopolitical spillover into supply chain assets: Global markets continue to trade within a hyper-reactive geopolitical premium structure. While temporary halts in direct Israel-Iran strikes initially gave risk assets a brief window to capture a "dip-buying" bounce early in the Asian session, the subsequent U.S. rhetoric surrounding direct Iranian operations quickly reinforced the fragile baseline of global energy networks and shipping routes. The resulting cross-asset landscape remains structurally pinned to headlines, preventing standard macroeconomic or corporate fundamentals from asserting sustained price authority.
• Central banks locked in maximum-smoothing interventions: Emerging and developed monetary authorities across the Asia-Pacific region are navigating severe ceilings on currency depreciation. The surprise interest rate action out of Jakarta and the tactical JGB policy floating from Tokyo demonstrate that regional policymakers have reached structural boundaries where the absolute defence of financial stability supersedes long-term tightening blueprints. This interventionist posture is keeping sovereign yield curves highly compressed and prone to violent intraday gaps.

Equities: The S&P 500 closed down 0.3%, while the tech-concentrated Nasdaq 100 plunged 1.1% as semiconductor giants lost 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished slightly higher, with a meagre 0.2% gain on Tuesday, insulated by a deep institutional rotation into defensive, value-oriented blue chips. In today’s Asia session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures extended their losses by 0.3% and 0.4%.

Fixed Income: U.S. sovereign debt caught a mild haven bid on the back of Trump’s Middle East remarks, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down 5 bps to 4.52%, still above its 20-day moving average at 4.52%, ahead of today’s highly watched US CPI release.

FX: The US Dollar Index finished little changed. The euro remained stable at $1.1544, while the British pound climbed 0.3% to finish at $1.3379. The Japanese yen grinded lower by 0.1% towards the prior intervention zone, closing at 160.36 per US dollar. The risk-sensitive Aussie continued its descent by 0.3% to hit a 2-month low of 0.7028 against the greenback.

Commodities: WTI crude oil slumped 2.8% to close at $88.71/bbl, paring its sharpest intraday drop late in the session amid geopolitical updates. Safe-haven liquidation hit precious metals, pushing spot gold down 1.6% to settle at $4,260/oz.

• Equity rebound thwarted by US tech contagion: While Asian indices like Japan's Nikkei 225 bounced 2.2% on Tuesday, overnight weakness in US technology stocks triggered a negative feedback loop into Asian bourses today. Almost a sea of red at the start of today’s Asia session; Nikkei 225 (-1.9%), KOSPI (-5.1%), Hang Seng Index (-1.1%), China A50 (-0.3%), CSI 300 (-1%), and STI (-1%), while Australia’s ASX 200 managed to buck the trend with a minor gain of 0.1%.
• Indonesian rupiah rebounds on shock rate action: The Indonesian Rupiah emerged as a top regional outperformer, rallying sharply against the U.S. dollar after Bank Indonesia executed a surprise, emergency rate hike to defend its capital account against persistent capital flight and ongoing emerging market macro pressures.
• JGBs catch a wave of re-buying capital: Japanese Government Bonds rallied aggressively, driving domestic yields lower following formal reports indicating that the Bank of Japan is actively leaning toward a pause in its sovereign bond-purchase tapering program to stave off broader debt network illiquidity.

1. US Core Inflation Rate (May) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 2.9% y/y Apr: 2.8% y/y) Impact: All asset classes
2. BoC Interest Rate Decision - 9:45 pm SGT (consensus: 2.25%/unchanged) Impact: USD/CAD, CAD crosses
3. EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Report -10.30 pm SGT Impact: WTI and Brent crude
4. SpaceX Pre-IPO Bookbuilding Adjustments Impact: US stock indices
5. US-Iran developments over peace deal negotiations Impact: All asset classes

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The S&P 500 faces growing downside risks amid deteriorating market breadth. Despite a sharp rebound in semiconductor stocks, only three of the eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced, highlighting narrow leadership and a lack of broad-based participation in the rally.
• Rising expectations of Fed rate hikes are tightening financial conditions. Following a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, markets are increasingly pricing in Fed rate hikes starting as early as October 2026, which could pressure valuations, particularly in AI infrastructure and semiconductor-related sectors.
• Technical indicators point to further near-term weakness. The S&P 500 remains capped below its 20-day moving average, while the NYSE Advance/Decline line has broken below key support and flashed a bearish divergence, suggesting underlying distribution rather than accumulation.

The S&P 500, one of the four major US benchmark stock indices, posted a 2.6% weekly decline, halting its 9-week streak of consecutive gains, and recorded its worst weekly performance since the week of 23 March 2026 during the depths of the US-Iran war.

The bulk of last week’s losses came on Friday, 5 June, ex-post US non-farm payrolls induced a plunge of 2.64%, reinforcing a tighter liquidity condition ahead as Fed funds futures traders start to position for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve.

Based on the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool as of 9 June 2026, the increased odds of 63% that the Fed may start to enact its first 25 basis points (bps) rate hike as soon as the October 2026 FOMC meeting and another hike of 25 bps (63% chance) to come in April next year.

This hawkish Fed funds rate repricing is likely to dampen the earlier optimistic revenue guidance reported during the first-quarter US earnings reporting session, especially in the AI-infrastructure and semiconductor sectors, in turn, triggering a negative feedback loop into the S&P 500.

The “buy-the-dip” behaviour seen in US semiconductor stocks on Monday, 8 June, when the PHLX Semiconductor index surged by 5.6% to lead the intraday recovery, could be a “bull trap” as market breadth was weak.

Out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, only three of them managed to notch gains on Monday: Technology (+1.5%), Energy (+1.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%).

Also, the cumulative Advance/Decline line of all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has broken below a former medium-term ascending support after a bearish divergence condition, indicating a distribution pattern underneath rather than an accumulation after yesterday’s rally in US semiconductor stocks (see Fig. 1).

Let’s now decipher the short-term trajectories (1 to 3 days) of the SPX 500 CFD (a proxy of the S&P 500 E-mini futures).

Trend bias: Bearish reversal of medium-term uptrend, 7,496/522 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 2).

Supports: 7,340/327 (8 May/19 May 2026 minor lows), 7,270 (1 May 2026 former minor high & Fibonacci extension), 7,200 (28 April/5 May 2026 congestion & Fibonacci extension).

Next resistances: 7,566 (5 June 2026 minor high), 7,600 (2/5 June 2026 congestion).

• Yesterday’s rebound stalled at around 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor drop from the 5 June 2026 high to the 8 June 2026 low.
• Price actions remain below the 20-day moving average.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator remains capped below a descending resistance at around the 50 level.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Technology stocks staged a strong rebound, led by semiconductor shares such as Intel and Micron, helping the Nasdaq 100 recover 1.6% despite weak overall market breadth and continued pressure on non-tech sectors.
• Middle East tensions remain a key market driver, but a temporary Israel-Iran ceasefire helped cap oil price gains, reducing immediate inflation fears and supporting risk sentiment.
• Investors remain focused on higher interest rates and liquidity risks in mega-IPOs, with Treasury yields remaining elevated as upcoming listings such as SpaceX continue to raise questions about capital allocation across global equity markets.
• Chart of the day: AUD/USD’s rebound from Monday looks like a “dead cat bounce”. Watch the 0.7085/710 key short-term resistance.

The 0.7% rebound in AUD/USD from Monday’s Asian session intraday low of 0.7024 has been lacklustre. The hourly RSI momentum indicator has been capped below its descending resistance at around 58 (see Fig. 1).

These observations warrant caution that Monday’s rebound may be a “dead cat bounce” within a bearish structure that has been unfolding since the bearish break below the 50-day moving average on last Friday, 5 June 2026.

Watch the 0.7085/7100 key short-term pivotal resistance; a break below 0.7024 near-term support opens scope for potential weakness towards the next immediate supports at 0.7008/0.6995 and 0.6960/6945.

On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.7100 invalidates the bearish tone and opens the door to a squeeze up to retest the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which converge at the next intermediate resistance of 0.7120 and 0.7153.

• Dip buyers unleash historic chip rally: Following a brutal selloff that saw global tech benchmarks routed late last week, dip buyers returned to Wall Street in force. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 1.6%, and the S&P 500 jumped 0.3% to close above 7,405, powered by a massive 5.6% to 6.5% resurgence of semiconductor giants like Micron Technology and Intel Corp. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed, losing 0.2%.
• Trump ceasefire call caps geopolitical oil surge: Crude oil sharply pared its early 4% weekend gains after a tenuous, temporary ceasefire was brokered between Israel and Iran. While Israel hit petrochemical targets in southwestern Iran over the weekend, Reuters reported that both sides subsequently lifted flight and movement restrictions, signalling a tentative pause in direct hostilities.
• SpaceX counts down to historic $75 Billion IPO: Elon Musk’s SpaceX is moving ahead with plans to raise $75 billion by offering 555.6 million shares at a fixed price of $135 per share. The historic listing, scheduled for this Friday, skips typical bookbuilding price ranges due to massive pre-IPO institutional demand, commanding a fully diluted valuation of $1.77 trillion.
• Fed hike fears soften on wage metrics: While a massive 172,000 nonfarm payroll expansion on Friday initially stoked hawkish monetary fears, institutional desks spent the session reassessing the data. Wall Street sentiment turned positive as analysts noted a cooling trend in underlying wage growth, prompting banks to downplay the imminent risk of an October Fed rate hike.
• 'Sell Indonesia’ sweeps regional trading desks: Concerns over interventionist economic management and confusion regarding new commodity export rules have sent Indonesian assets into a spiral. Just five months after hitting a record high, the benchmark Jakarta stock index plunged, bringing its total decline to 36% and making it the worst-performing global index in 2026, while the rupiah collapsed to a new low of 18,180 against the dollar.

• A healthy reset in crowded tech allocations: Wall Street’s leading strategists messaged that last week’s deep pullback was an essential positioning reset rather than a structural market top. Citigroup aggressively raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,100 (a gain of around 9% from Monday’s S&P 500 closing level of 7.405), citing a significant step-up in corporate earnings power that will absorb upcoming mega-cap tech issuance, such as SpaceX and Anthropic.
• Cool reception for conceptual AI updates: Despite the broader chip sector’s explosive rebound, consumer tech companies bucked the trend. Apple Inc. shares slid 1.9% after investors gave a decidedly cool reception to the firm’s showcase of its next-generation AI platform, underscoring that markets are increasingly demanding immediate, quantifiable monetisation over product updates.
• Sovereign debt yield resurgence: As geopolitical alarms shifted to a low simmer in the Middle East, the safe-haven premium began draining from global bonds. Fixed-income yields remained anchored near multi-month highs, with global allocators bracing for massive upcoming government note auctions amid a structurally higher cost of capital.

Equities: The S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to settle at 7,405.73, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.6%. But market breadth was weak, with only 3 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors recording gains: Technology (+1.5%), Energy (+1.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.5 %). In Europe, the Stoxx 600 edged down 0.1% due to its lower semiconductor weighting.

Fixed Income: Yields pressed higher on hawkish central bank expectations. The US 10-year Treasury yield advanced to settle near 4.57%. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield ticked up to 3.06%, and the UK’s 10-year Gilt yield rose four basis points to 4.94%.

FX: The US Dollar Index lost its safe-haven traction, falling slightly by 0.1%. The euro caught a minor bid, hovering at $1.1538, while the British pound rested at $1.3350. The Japanese yen stabilised at around 160.20 per dollar.

Commodities: WTI crude finished up 1% on Monday to trade near $91.27/bbl, and Brent crude rose to trade near $94.10/bbl, both closing well below their early peaks. Spot gold clawed back a modest 0.05% to trade at $4,330/oz, hovering just above a near-term support of $4,250/oz.

• Stock markets under pressure: Before the New York tech rebound materialised, regional indices bore the brunt of global tech contagion. South Korea’s KOSPI index was severely damaged, falling by a staggering 5.5% on Friday as options market liquidations triggered a deep regional equity-clearing event. In today’s Asia opening session, technical rebounds have materialised, Nikkei 225 (+3.6%), KOSPI (+3.6%), CSI 300 (+0.3%), and STI (+0.9%).
• Rupiah trapped in historic lows: The Indonesian rupiah weakened about 7% year-to-date, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia in 2026, and fell further to a low of 18,180 against the US dollar, forcing emergency central bank smoothing interventions.
• BOJ intervention floor monitored: The Japanese yen remains deeply pinned against the greenback at around 160.20. The Bank of Japan remains on maximum alert for direct spot-market intervention as wide yield differentials continue to structurally favour the U.S. dollar.

1. Germany Balance of Trade (Apr) - 2.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
2. US Existing Home Sales (May) - 10.00 pm SGT (consensus: 4.06M, Apr: 4.02M) Impact: USD, US stock indices
3. ECB President Lagarde Speech - 10 Jun, 12.30 am SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses

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• AI-driven equities face their biggest setback in months. A sharp selloff in semiconductor and technology stocks, triggered by valuation concerns and disappointing guidance from key AI-related companies, has halted the nine-week Wall Street rally and raised questions about the sustainability of the AI super cycle.
• Middle East tensions have reignited energy market risks. Fresh Iran-Israel hostilities pushed crude oil prices higher, reviving concerns over global energy supply disruptions and reinforcing inflationary pressures across major economies.
• Strong US labour data has revived expectations of a Fed rate hike. A significantly stronger-than-expected US payrolls report has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, driving Treasury yields higher, strengthening the US dollar, and tightening global financial conditions.
• Chart of the day: WTI crude gapped up and rebounded from minor ascending channel support at $91.40/bbl.

The price action of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for the WTI crude oil futures) gapped up by 3.3% in today’s Asia opening session to trade at $95.10 per barrel at this time of writing, erasing last Friday’s loss of 3%.

Near-term technicals have flipped bullish, as the hourly RSI momentum indicator exited oversold territory and broke out above its former descending resistance.

Watch the 91.40 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 95.45 would see the intermediate resistance at 100.00 (also close to the 20-day and 50-day moving averages) in the first step.

However, a break and an hourly close below 91.40 would signal a retest of the 29 May 2026 minor swing low at 89.00. Below it extends losses towards the next intermediate support at 85.50

• Tech deflates in brutal Wall Street reversal: Wall Street’s historic nine-week winning streak ground to a violent halt on Friday as a massive tech-led selloff intensified. The Nasdaq 100 Index plunged 4.8%, and a broad gauge of chipmakers tumbled 10% in its worst single-session routing in months, as growing anxiety over AI overvaluation triggered widespread institutional profit-taking.
• Geopolitical escalation as Iran fires on Israel: Middle East tensions exploded over the weekend. Following an Israeli strike on Beirut, Iran directed a massive salvo of missiles targeting Israeli territory. WTI and Brent crude futures immediately spiked 2.8% to hit at $92.70 and $95.40 a barrel in today’s Asia opening session, though gains moderated slightly after President Trump said the flare-up would not derail the overarching regional peace framework negotiations.
• Hot US jobs report shifts Fed target: The US labour market showed unexpected, robust resilience, with May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 positions, shattering the consensus forecast of 85,000. While the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, the red-hot hiring numbers prompted Fed funds futures traders to immediately price in a 60% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike as early as October 2026.

• The Great AI narrative fray: The unyielding “AI-drives-everything” bull market faced its harshest reality check over the weekend. A combination of hot macroeconomic data and localised tech earnings disappointment (e.g., Broadcom) has investors fiercely debating whether the current AI market cap demands a tactical correction, particularly as blockbuster private listings such as SpaceX threaten to drain liquidity from broader equity markets.
• The Mega-IPO liquidity drain: Wall Street trading desks are highly anxious over an unprecedented wave of massive capital calls coming to market. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has locked in a fixed $135/share price targeting a record-shattering $75 billion public raise this week, while generative AI giant Anthropic just filed confidentially for an IPO targeting a near 1$ trillion valuation. Capital allocators are actively selling existing liquid equities to free up space for these generational private tech entries.
• Sovereign bond yield resurgence: The combination of an inflationary energy supply shock and an unrelenting US jobs landscape has completely crushed any remaining expectations for central bank rate cuts. Two-year Treasury yields surged 10 basis points on Friday to 4.15%, signalling a profound multi-month repricing of global cost of capital.

Equities: S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.2% in early Asian trade before easing towards a slight gain of 0.01% and 0.35%, after Friday’s steep losses, where the S&P 500 sank 2.6%. The medium-term uptrend, which began late March 2026, has officially stalled.

Fixed Income: US Treasuries tumbled; two-year yields closed Friday up 10 bps to 4.15%. The 10-year Treasury yield extended its gains by another 4 bps t0 4.57% in early Monday trading, maintaining immense upward pressure.

FX: The US Dollar Index gained aggressively against all G-10 peers on a cocktail of safe-haven flows and the hawkish Fed rate adjustment. The Euro flattened out at $1.1519, a 2-month low, while the British Pound hovered defensively at $1.3317, near a 1-month low. In addition, the AUD tumbled to around a 2-month low of 0.7022, and the JPY grinded lower towards the recent intervention zone of 160.45/65 per US dollar.

Commodities: Brent crude gapped higher by 2.8% to trade at $95.40/bbl on the back of Iranian missile deployment. Spot Gold extended its losses from Friday, slipping to $4,315/oz as expectations of higher-for-longer global interest rates diminished its non-yielding appeal.

• Regional AI stocks routed: Tech-heavy Asian benchmarks bore the brunt of global tech contagion on Monday morning. South Korea’s Kospi index, the world’s top-performing gauge this year due to its exposure to memory and AI chips, tumbled 5.5% on Friday and opened 7% lower today. The Nikkei 225 also posted steep losses of 5%. Blood baths are seen in other Asia-Pacific benchmark stock indices: Hang Seng Index (-1.7%), China A50 (-1.6%), CSI 300 (-2.4%), ASX 200 (-0.7%), and STI (-1.4%).
• Currency interventions in play: The South Korean won slid to its weakest valuation framework since 2009 to an intraday high of 1,559 per US dollar in today’s Asia opening session, forcing the Seoul government to deploy an emergency series of curbs to support the currency. The Japanese Yen also remains deeply pinned, trading weakly at 160.30 per US dollar, keeping Bank of Japan intervention flags fully raised.
• Trade sentiment frozen: Early regional performance is further muted by traders waiting on major Chinese trade balance data later this week, as regional supply chains undergo structural realignment and linger amid lingering tariff anxieties.

1. New York Fed 1-YR Inflation Expectations (May) – 11.00 pm SGT Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indices
2. US-Iran peace talks/ceasefire developments Impact: All asset classes

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Bitcoin is under strong selling pressure, falling over 17% in a week and dropping below USD 60,000. The decline was intensified by USD 532 million in long liquidations on Binance, which triggered additional forced selling.
• Market sentiment worsened after Strategy sold part of its bitcoin holdings. Although the sale was small — 32 BTC for USD 2.5 million — it raised concerns that the largest corporate bitcoin holder could make further sales in the future.
• The broader crypto market is weak due to macro and demand concerns. Strong U.S. labor data reduced hopes for rate cuts, retail investors are shifting toward AI-related tech stocks, ETF inflows remain too small to support prices, and security concerns after the Zcash vulnerability further damaged trust.

Bitcoin has come under heavy selling pressure and has already lost more than 17 percent since the beginning of the week. On Friday, its price fell below the psychological barrier of USD 60,000, increasing investor concerns about a further deepening of the correction. Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-week SMA for the first time in three years. From its all-time high near USD 126,000, the leading cryptocurrency has already lost more than half of its value.

Long liquidations increase pressure on the market

The scale of the declines was amplified by the forced closure of leveraged positions. Over the past 24 hours, long positions worth USD 532 million were liquidated on the Binance exchange. Such a large wave of liquidations shows that many investors betting on a bitcoin rebound were forced to close their positions, which further increased selling pressure in the market.

This mechanism often deepens declines, as automatic liquidations lead to further sell orders. As a result, the market can move more sharply than would be implied solely by incoming macroeconomic data or the decisions of the largest investors.

Strategy’s Bitcoin sale weighed on sentiment

One of the factors worsening sentiment was the news that Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and a company associated with Michael Saylor, had sold part of its bitcoin holdings. The company sold 32 bitcoins for USD 2.5 million. Although the transaction was small compared with the company’s overall portfolio, it carried significant symbolic weight.

It was only Strategy’s second bitcoin sale since it began making purchases in 2020. The company explained the decision as necessary to pay coupons to holders of preferred shares, but investors interpreted it as a possible weakening of the long-standing narrative of holding bitcoin indefinitely.

The market is primarily concerned that this small sale could foreshadow further, larger transactions in the future. This risk was highlighted by Peter Schiff, a well-known bitcoin critic, who stressed that the problem is not the scale of the current sale itself, but its potential consequences for investor confidence. Before this transaction, Strategy had reportedly purchased a total of 843,738 BTC for nearly USD 64 billion, which is why any change in the company’s strategy is being closely watched by the market.

Declines spread across the entire cryptocurrency market

Selling pressure was not limited to bitcoin. Ethereum fell by around 23 percent over the week to USD 1,555, while Solana lost about 22 percent, dropping to USD 63.75. Weakness was also visible in shares of companies linked to cryptocurrencies. Strategy’s stock fell by almost 10 percent, while Coinbase shares declined by 8.4 percent.

A modest positive signal came from inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs yesterday after 13 days of outflows. However, the scale of these inflows, amounting to just over USD 3 million, was too small to change the overall market picture. In practice, this means that institutional demand remains too weak to effectively stop the current sell-off.

Strong U.S. Data reduces hopes for rate cuts

Sentiment was also hurt by strong data from the U.S. labor market. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, clearly above expectations. Such data reduces the likelihood of swift interest rate cuts in the United States, which is unfavorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The strong labor market report weakened the narrative of imminent monetary policy easing, while bitcoin currently lacks a clear macroeconomic catalyst that could support a rebound.

Retail investors shift their attention to tech stocks

An additional problem for the crypto market is the outflow of some retail investors toward technology stocks, especially companies linked to artificial intelligence. Retail investors have largely left the cryptocurrency market and returned to equities, making it difficult to identify new sources of demand for bitcoin.

In an environment of weakening interest and a lack of fresh capital, every negative piece of news can trigger a stronger price reaction. This applies both to macroeconomic data and to decisions by major entities holding significant bitcoin reserves.

Security issues weaken trust in Crypto

The cryptocurrency market is also struggling with concerns over trust in the security of blockchain technology. Investors paid particular attention to a vulnerability in the Zcash network, after which the cryptocurrency’s price fell by more than 40 percent in a single day. Developers fixed the bug, but they were unable to clearly determine whether it had been exploited to create additional tokens.

This situation increased concerns that increasingly advanced artificial intelligence models may in the future help detect similar vulnerabilities in other cryptocurrency projects. For a market already under downward pressure, such information further worsens sentiment.

Lack of new sources of demand makes a rebound difficult

The current sell-off in bitcoin is the result of several negative factors overlapping: strong U.S. economic data, reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, investors shifting toward technology stocks, concerns about Strategy’s future actions, trust issues related to the security of some crypto projects, and the large scale of long liquidations in the leveraged instruments market.

Bitcoin remains under pressure, and the lack of clear new sources of demand means that a quick and sustained rebound may be difficult. The market appears weakened, and investors are watching increasingly closely to see whether the drop below USD 60,000 proves to be only a brief breach of an important level or a continuation of the downward trend that began in October 2025.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• EUR/USD remains resilient ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, supported by expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain a more aggressive tightening path than the Federal Reserve despite weak Eurozone growth.
• Interest-rate expectations are becoming increasingly supportive for the euro, with the Eurozone-US policy rate differential narrowing as markets price additional ECB rate hikes while the Federal Reserve faces a more balanced growth-versus-inflation trade-off.
• Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD may be forming a near-term base above key channel support at 1.1580, with improving momentum signalling a potential short-term recovery toward the 1.1645–1.1720 resistance zone.

Ahead of today’s critical US Nonfarm Payrolls release, the EUR/USD pair has been grinding sideways around the 1.1610-1.1620 zone, showing resilience amid a fundamentally strong US Dollar environment.

The primary catalyst today will be the US labour market data. According to Reuters, the US economy is expected to have added 85,000 jobs in May, representing a slowdown from April’s 115,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

A “slow-hire, slow-fire” equilibrium continues to anchor the US labour market, keeping conditions stable enough for the Federal Reserve to maintain its higher-for-longer stance. In fact, market pricing from the Fed funds futures market currently reflects a roughly 60% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by the Fed at its December 2026 meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Earlier this week, mixed signals, from stronger ADP and JOLTS data to an uptick in weekly jobless claims (225K), have kept traders cautious, clipping the USD slightly in recent sessions.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the Euro is being supported by an aggressively hawkish European Central Bank (ECB). Despite the Eurozone facing stagflation risks, with Q1 GDP growth a meagre 0.1% q/q, inflation remains sticky, hitting 3.2% y/y, largely driven by energy shocks.

Consequently, the latest Reuters polling indicates the ECB is highly likely to hike its deposit rate to 2.25% next week, providing a solid floor for the single currency and countering the dollar’s strength.

Also, the monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for the Eurozone and the US, based on short-term interest rate futures, have steepened.

The Eurozone/US implied policy rate curve spread in August 2026 has increased to -1.28% from June 2026’s print of -1.45% and shifted upwards from -1.45% three months ago (see Fig. 1).

These observations suggest that the ECB is likely to be more hawkish or less dovish than the Fed, reinforcing a “floor” on the EUR/USD.

Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the EUR/USD from a technical analysis perspective.

Trend bias: Bullish bias above 1.1580 medium-term pivotal support for a minor recovery (see Fig. 2).

Resistances: 1.1645/1660 (also the 20-day moving average), 1.1685 (also the 200-day moving average), 1.1720 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of prior decline from 6 May 2026 high to 21 May 2026 low).

Supports: 1.610/1595 (4 June 2026 minor low & medium-term ascending channel support from 13 Mar 2026 low), 1.1580 (MT pivot), 1.1555 (7 April 2026 congestion).

• The recent sideways movement in EUR/USD since 21 May 2026 has formed a base/floor just above the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since the 13 March 2026 low.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout after finding support on its ascending trendline, suggesting a potential resurgence of short-term bullish momentum.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The AI-driven equity rally is showing signs of fatigue after Broadcom’s disappointing guidance triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor and cybersecurity stocks, prompting investors to rotate into more defensive and cyclical sectors.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to a record high as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns, while hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations supported industrial, financial, and value-oriented sectors.
• Indonesia has emerged as a major source of regional market stress, with the rupiah and local equities suffering significant capital outflows amid concerns over government intervention policies, raising broader emerging-market contagion risks across Asia.
• Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100 minor uptrend from 19 May 2026 at risk of breaking down below 30,535 key short-term resistance.

The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has staged a bearish breakdown below its minor ascending channel support, taken from the 19 May 2026 low, after it printed a fresh intraday all-time high of 30,773 on Wednesday, 5 June 2026.

Yesterday’s bearish reaction close to the former ascending channel support implies that the minor uptrend phase from the 10 May 2026 low is in jeopardy.

Watch the 30,535 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 30,000 near-term support may trigger a minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at 29,700 (also the 20-day moving average), and 29,410.

However, a clearance with an hourly close above 30,535 invalidates the bearish tone and extends the bullish impulsive up move, with the current all-time high area at 30,728/795, before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 31,050 (Fibonacci extension).

• Tech sector wobbles on Broadcom outlook: Broadcom Inc. shares slumped 14% to 15% in premarket trading after its semiconductor revenue forecast fell short of expectations. This triggered a broader tech selloff that also hit cybersecurity firms like CrowdStrike, which dropped 10%.
• Dow surges as oil eases: Reversing yesterday’s spike, WTI and Brent crude prices dropped by 2%-3% to fall back to around $95-83 a barrel as traders eyed a potential Iran deal following news of a Lebanon-Israel ceasefire. This relief in energy costs propelled the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 875 points (1.70%) to a record high.
• Middle East ceasefire complications: While oil prices initially fell on ceasefire hopes, US efforts to halt fighting in Lebanon were undermined after the pro-Iran Hezbollah movement rejected the new truce and Israel said it would not withdraw troops. Progress in US-Iran talks has also stalled.
• Indonesian markets plunge: Indonesian assets are in a severe selloff, with the benchmark stock index tumbling 36% from its record high five months ago, making it the worst-performing market globally this year. The rupiah fell by over 7% amid concerns about President Prabowo Subianto’s interventionist policies.

• AI Enthusiasm meets reality check: The “parabolic” rally in semiconductor and AI stocks is taking a breather. Investors are rotating out of tech and into other sectors viewed as better positioned for a resilient economy, re-evaluating the immediate revenue returns of massive AI infrastructure spending.
• Emerging-market contagion risks: The rapid withdrawal of foreign capital from Indonesia underscores the vulnerability of emerging markets to populist political shifts. The South Korean won also fell to its weakest level since 2009 at 1,545 per USD, indicating broader pressure on Asian currencies as the Iran war drags on.
• Energy security and inflation: Oil markets remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with the Saudi energy minister calling for stability at a Russian economic forum to prevent a loss of energy sustainability. Markets are weighing whether oil-driven inflation pressures could force a US interest rate hike as soon as October.

Equities: S&P 500 futures slipped to 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.1% in today’s early Asia session. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record high on sector rotation on Thursday, 4 June. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% amid its lower tech weighting. The UK’s FTSE 100 added 0.3%.

Fixed Income: Shorter-term US Treasuries rebounded, with the US 2-year yield declining 4 basis points to 4.05% ahead of today’s US non-farm payroll report, while the US 10-year yield held steady at around 4.48%.

FX: The US Dollar Index fell 0.1%. The euro rose 0.4% intraday to $1.1645 before closing lower at $1.1611 on Thursday, 4 June. The Japanese yen strengthened slightly to 159.77-159.85 per USD before rebounding to 160.00 (close to prior intervention levels).

Commodities: WTI crude fell by 3.4% to around $92.92/bbl. Spot gold rebounded by 0.9% to $4,475/oz but remained below its 20-day moving average at around $4,544/oz.

• Tech-heavy markets suffer: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8% to 1.3%, dragged down by the US tech selloff. South Korea’s KOSPI tumbled 5% intraday, acting as a bellwether for regional AI investments. Across the board, weakness was seen in key Asia Pacific benchmark stock indices today: Nikkei 225 (-1.6%), Hang Seng Index (-0.8%), China A50 (-0.1%), ASX 200 (-0.7%), and STI (-0.3%).
• Currency Interventions looming: The South Korean won hit its weakest level since 2009. Authorities in Indonesia and the Philippines are stepping up efforts to support their currencies as policymakers near the limits of their currency defences.
• Indonesian rout: The “sell Indonesia” trade is dominating the region, with massive foreign capital outflows from both bonds and equities following President Prabowo’s move to take direct control of key commodity exports.

1. US Nonfarm Payrolls (May) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: +85K, Apr: +115K) Impact: All asset classes
2. US Unemployment Rate (May) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.3%, Apr: 4.3%) Impact: All asset classes
3. US-Iran peace talks/ceasefire developments Impact: All asset classes

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.