• Markets embraced a strong risk-on rally after the US and Iran agreed on a framework to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sharply reducing geopolitical and energy-related inflation risks.
• Technology stocks reclaimed market leadership, with the Nasdaq 100 surging 3% as investors rotated back into mega-cap growth names, supported by lower oil prices, Nvidia’s planned US$20 billion bond offering, and continued enthusiasm around AI infrastructure spending.
• Attention now shifts to central bank policy, particularly the inaugural FOMC meeting under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as markets assess whether lower energy prices are sufficient to temper expectations for a potential Fed rate hike later this year.
• Chart of the day: USD/JPY minor uptrend remains intact above 159.75 key support as it probes the 160.65 intervention risk level.

The price action of USD/JPY is holding at its 20-day moving average after its prior two retests on it on 12 June and 15 June, indicating a “cautious” minor bullish impulsive up move sequence as USD/JPY continues to probe its recent intervention level of 160.65 (see Fig. 1).

Watch the 159.75 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the near-term bullish tone on USD/JPY towards the key intermediate resistance at 160.65, and above it, the 161.14/120 resistance is next to watch.

However, a break and an hourly close below 159.75 invalidates the bullish tone, opening the door to a minor drop towards the next intermediate supports at 159.45 and 159.10/158.80 (also the 50-day moving average).

• The US and Iran agreed to a framework to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz: Global supply chains and financial markets captured an extraordinary sigh of relief on Monday. Both sides had confirmed the establishment of a 60-day structural framework to completely halt conflict operations, fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and negotiate over Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme during the 60-day window. Formal signing of the agreement is expected on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland.
• Wall Street rallies and the Nasdaq 100 jumps 3% as the geopolitical premium dissipates: Risk appetite returned to the global equity landscape with extreme force. Driven by the breakthrough in the Persian Gulf, the S&P 500 surged nearly 2% to approach its best single-session performance since April, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 jumped a massive 3.0% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rocketed to a brand-new historic all-time high.
• Crude oil collapses below $85 as energy inflation fears evaporate: Global energy benchmarks capitulated as the threat of an extended military blockade dissolved. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude plunged steeply, with US crude settling at $81.17/bbl. The swift deflation of input energy costs has immediately recalculated near-term upstream inflation targets for global manufacturing sectors.
• NVIDIA set to raise $20 Billion in landmark corporate bond debut: Highlighting the massive, ongoing capital demands of global artificial intelligence infrastructure projects, Reuters reported that chip giant Nvidia is coming to the U.S. debt market to raise $20 billion. The offering, consisting of seven tranches maturing in 2056, represents the firm’s first major corporate bond sale in five years, arranged by Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley.

• Structural deflation of the Persian Gulf shock: The core structural mechanism steering multi-asset allocations on Monday was the aggressive extraction of the geopolitical stagflation premium. The formal signature of the US-Iran memorandum immediately altered intermediate inflation expectations by removing the immediate threat of a prolonged blockage of global trade choke points. As energy prices retreated beneath critical psychological supports, macro traders dramatically unwound bets on defensive commodities and scaled back expectations for emergency tightening metrics from developed-market central banks.
• The transition to the Warsh Fed era and Wednesday’s Dot Plot: Despite the massive relief rally catalysed by plunging oil prices, market participants are keeping focus pinned on Wednesday’s monumental FOMC meeting, marking newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s inaugural interest rate decision. Fed funds futures traders are still expecting around a 70% chance of a 25 bps rate hike to come in December, despite the cooling energy complex, while market participants widely expect the committee to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, 17 June. The market will look to see whether Chair Warsh removes the historical easing bias from the median dot plot, particularly given that headline metrics like May CPI reached a three-year high of 4.2%.
• Intraday breadth and the Tech leadership resurgence: Monday’s price action represented a tactical interruption to the “Great Rotation” of 2026. While recent weeks had seen institutional funds steadily exit overextended large-cap growth names to deploy into small-cap value and industrial cyclicals, the sheer velocity of the geopolitical relief bounce immediately drew capital right back into high-beta technology blocks. Powered by stabilised energy inputs and massive primary issuances such as NVIDIA’s $20 billion bond placement and SpaceX’s robust post-IPO secondary performance, mega-cap growth recaptured near-term liquidity dominance.

Equities: The S&P 500 climbed nearly 2.0% in its best single-session performance since April. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 led global benchmarks with a vertical 3.0% surge, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average scaled new historic highs. In contrast, energy producers lagged significantly (-3.6% for the S&P Energy sector).

Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds caught a wave of structural re-buying as hawkish rate-hike fears subsided alongside energy metrics. The policy-sensitive US two-year Treasury yield dropped by 2 bps to settle at 4.07% on Monday, 15 June. In Europe, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield and the UK 10-year Gilt yield edged lower by 3 bps and 1 bps, reflecting broader macro decompression.

FX: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded on a softer tone but held its 20-day moving average, acting as a key intermediate support at 99.50. The British pound underperformed, trading almost unchanged at 1.3412 against the US dollar; earlier intraday gains were wiped out amid political risk in the UK (uncertainty surrounding PM Starmer’s fate).

The Japanese yen remained weak at 160.20 per US dollar as the BoJ hiked its policy rate by 25 bps, as expected, to 1%, a 31-year high, and offered a dovish element, saying it will pause its JGB taper from April 2027.

Commodities: WTI and Brent crude oil tumbled and broke below key medium-term supports of $85.50/bbl and $86.25/bbl. Lower energy prices reduced the stagflation risk narrative, allowing precious metals to extend their corrective rebound into a third consecutive session. Gold rallied 2.1% to close at $4,308/oz on Monday, 15 June, below its 20-day moving average ($4,405/oz).

• APAC tech and export hubs join global resurgence: Regional stock benchmarks across Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan experienced pronounced institutional capital inflows on Tuesday morning. Local export-oriented entities captured intense upside momentum, responding directly to the 3.0% vertical surge across the New York mega-cap technology space. Nikkei 225 (+0.6%), KOSPI (+2.1%), and TAIEX (+0.7%).
• China and Hong Kong underperform due to weak domestic consumption: China’s retail sales for May plummeted into negative territory (-0.6% y/y), the first time since December 2022, indicating very weak consumer sentiment and spending, as the Labour Day holiday in early May failed to offset the weakness. China A50 (-0.5%), and the Hang Seng Index (-1.3%).
• Regional Currencies Bounce from Low Floors: The South Korean Won and the Indonesian Rupiah showed clear signs of stabilisation. The rapid retreat in the global dollar index and the sharp deflation of crude oil import prices have materially alleviated structural balance-of-payments pressures across non-OPEC emerging economies.
• BOJ JGB Program under scrutiny: Japanese fixed-income markets traded calmly after the BoJ’s latest monetary policy decision to pause its JGB tapering programme from April 2027. The 10-year JGB yield continues to stabilise at 2.64% after spiking to a 30–year high of 2.75% in May 2026.

1. RBA Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference - 12.30 pm & 1.30 pm SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crosses, ASX 200
2. Germany Zew Economic Sentiment (Jun) - 5:00 pm SGT (consensus: -6, May; -10.2) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
3. US Housing Starts (May) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 1.43M, Apr: 1.465M) Impact: USD, US stock indices

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• A surprise US-Iran interim agreement has triggered a powerful risk-on rally, with Nasdaq 100 futures surging 3% and S&P 500 futures gaining 2% as traders aggressively unwind geopolitical risk premiums tied to the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
• Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, AUD/USD, and Gold have all posted bullish gap-ups, but their advances remain vulnerable to reversal if key support levels fail, particularly given the absence of a signed agreement and published deal details.
• Several hidden risks remain unresolved, including sanctions relief terms, Iran’s proposed transit fees for Hormuz shipping, and the possibility of unilateral Israeli military actions that could rapidly derail the current optimism and trigger renewed market volatility.

A remarkable turn of events, the announcement of an interim agreement between the US and Iran in today’s early Asia session (Monday, 15 June) to end hostilities and reopen the vital energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a massive spark of risk-on behaviour in global markets.

US President Trump has already posted “teasers” on his social media since last Friday, 12 June, despite Iran not confirming that an imminent deal will be signed on Sunday. Interestingly, this interim deal materialised after Trump backed down on his “harsh threat” to attack Iran on the last Thursday, giving rise to the “Trump always chickens out-TACO” trade narrative.

The E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 staged a tremendous gap up today, rallying by 2% and 3%, respectively, and almost erased 90% of the losses inflicted by the prior 2-week minor corrective decline from their respective all-time highs printed at the start of June 2026 to the 11 June 2026 low.

Let’s look at the intraday technical charts of several key instruments that benefit from this raging near-term bullish sentiment before we tackle the “hidden risks”.

The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has staged a bullish gap up in today’s opening session and reintegrated back above the 20-day moving average, which suggests the emergence of a minor bullish trend from the 10 June 2026 low (see Fig. 1).

Watch the 29,700 key short-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average) for a further potential push up towards 30,530 and the current all-time high area of 30,728/795. A clearance above 30,795 points to the next intermediate resistance at 31,125 (Fibonacci extension).

On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 29,700 invalidates the bullish tone, and a bull trap is likely to materialise, leading to a drop back towards 29,000 and even 28,280 (also the 50-day moving average).

The price action of the US Wall Street 30 CFD (a proxy for the Dow Jones Industrial Average E-mini futures) has traded back above the 20-day moving average since last Friday, 12 June.

Today’s Asia opening session, bullish gap-up, has reinforced an ongoing minor bullish trend launched from the recent 11 June 2026 low.

Watch the 51,390/235 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the current all-time high of 51,778 targets the next intermediate resistances at 52,044, followed by 52,357/410 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).

However, a breakdown with an hourly close below 51,235 negates the bullish tone for a drop to retest the next intermediate support at 50,820 (also close to the 20-day moving average).

The risk-on proxy, the Aussie dollar, has benefited from the intraday recovery in global stock markets today.

The AUD/USD has been oscillating within a potential medium-term downtrend since the 13 May 2026 high, as price action continues to trade below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

However, today’s intraday bullish price action and the bullish momentum conditions seen on the hourly RSI (a series of higher lows after a bullish divergence condition on last Wednesday, 10 June) have kick-started a potential minor corrective rebound sequence for the AUD/USD (see Fig. 3).

Watch the 0.7055 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push-up towards the next intermediate resistances at 0.7100 and 0.7120/7140 (also the 61.8%/76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline from the 29 May 2026 high to 11 June 2026 low).

On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below 0.7055 invalidates the corrective rebound sequence and puts the onus back on the bears to retest 0.7030 and 0.6980.

The medium-term downtrend in Gold (XAU/USD) has been in place since the all-time high on 29 January 2026 and remains intact.

Price actions continue to trade below the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The current bullish move is likely to be an extension of the minor correction rebound from the recent 11 June 2026 low at 4,024 (see Fig. 4).

Watch the 4,243/220 short-term pivotal support (today’s Asia opening session gap up) to maintain the corrective rebound sequence to seek out the next intermediate resistance at 4,373/394 before 4,432/466 (also the key 200-day moving average).

On the other hand, a breakdown and an hourly close below 4,220 invalidate the minor corrective rebound sequence, turning the focus back to the bears for a drop to retest 4,171 and 4,107 in the first step.

Now, here are the hidden risks that can derail the current bout of risk-on behaviour.

No released text: The single biggest warning flag is that no official text has been released. Iran maintains that nothing will be published until the ink dries on Friday, 19 June, which is supposed to be the official signing of the interim peace-deal agreement in Switzerland.

The Toll dispute: There is a blatant public mismatch in rhetoric. Trump forcefully stated on social media and to The New York Times that the Strait of Hormuz will be a “toll-free" opening. Simultaneously, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and state media have indicated that, while they support the opening, Iran still intends to charge service and transit fees to vessels.

Sanctions specifics: We don’t know the exact scope of the sanctions’ relief. Is the US allowing unrestricted crude flows, or is it a tightly capped waiver system subject to good behaviour during the 60-day nuclear talks?

The Israel wildcard: Hours before the peace-deal announcement, Israel launched highly disruptive airstrikes on Beirut. Far-right members of Isreal PM Netanyahu’s cabinet have already openly slammed the US-Iran deal. Because Israel is not a signatory to this MOU, it retains total operational freedom. A unilateral Israeli strike on Iranian domestic assets or a refusal to halt the Lebanon campaign would instantly trigger a collapse of the permanent ceasefire.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• SpaceX’s historic US$75 billion IPO marks a major milestone for global equity markets, with the company debuting at a valuation approaching US$1.8 trillion and positioning itself as a future top-weight constituent of the Nasdaq 100.
• Despite overwhelming investor demand and heavy oversubscription, the SpaceX grey market remains technically fragile, with the SPCX/USDT perpetual contract still trading within a medium-term descending channel since its launch in May.
• The technical outlook hinges on two critical levels: a break below US$161.00 may trigger a deeper correction towards US$147.07 and US$138.36, while a sustained move above US$187.60 would invalidate the bearish structure and open the door towards US$205.10 and US$212.70.

Today, 12 June 2026, marks a historic watershed moment for global stock markets as Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) makes its highly anticipated debut on the Nasdaq. Priced at $135 per share to raise a record-breaking $75 billion, the offering values the interlocking aerospace, Starlink connectivity, and xAI business at an eye-watering $1.78 trillion to $1.8 trillion.

In addition, Nasdaq has also overhauled its inclusion rules for listed companies to be included in the Nasdaq 100 benchmark index. Since 1 May 2026, it has allowed the top 40 companies by market cap (roughly $100 billion or more) to fast-track into the Nasdaq 100 in just 15 days.

Hence, SpaceX is likely to be one of the top 10 component stocks of the Nasdaq 100 by mid-July 2026, and thereafter potentially impacting the price movements of the Nasdaq 100 in line with passive flows via exchange-traded funds tracking the Nasdaq 100.

While the offering is heavily oversubscribed (3x to 4x, drawing over $250 billion in orders), market participants and traders will be observing in the next four weeks the performance of SPCX, given that it is the largest IPO offering in the world so far, plus its high-growth revenue drivers from space exploration and Starlink satellites connectivity can have a significant impact on risk appetite for the broader market.

Interestingly, we can look at the grey market for SpaceX, which is trading right now via perpetual contracts listed on crypto exchanges, to decipher the potential short-term trend of SPCX via technical analysis.

Binance listed its crypto derivative, SPCX/USDT (settled in Tether), pre-IPO Perpetual Contract on 21 May 2026. It spiked up to hit a high of $224.47 on the first day of trading and thereafter plummeted by 31% to print a current all-time low of $154.83 on Wednesday, 10 June 2026, before it rebounded to trade at a current intraday level of $173.56 on this time of writing (it represents a gain of 28% from its IPO price of $135) (see Fig. 1).

However, the trend of SPCX/USDT has been bearish since its launch on 21 May, as price action continues to oscillate within a descending channel, suggesting SPCX may enter a downward spiral over the next four weeks.

Watch the 187.60 pivotal resistance to maintain the potential medium-term/multi-week bearish trend of SPCX/USDT. A break below the recent range support of 161.00 may expose the next medium-term supports at 147.07 and 138.36 (defined by Fibonacci extensions).

On the flip side, a clearance above 187.60 invalidates the bearish tone and could kickstart a bullish impulsive up-move sequence towards the next medium-term resistances at 205.10 and 212.70.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Global stock markets staged a powerful relief rally after President Trump signalled that a comprehensive peace agreement between the US and Iran could be reached soon, triggering a sharp 6% decline in crude oil prices and easing stagflation concerns.
• Technology and AI-related stocks rebounded strongly, with semiconductor shares surging nearly 8% as investors regained confidence in the AI infrastructure investment cycle and concerns over liquidity drains from major IPOs eased.
• Bond yields and the US dollar weakened as traders scaled back expectations for energy-driven Federal Reserve rate hikes, providing support for equities, precious metals, and risk-sensitive assets across global markets.
• Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100’s rebound stalled right below its 20-day moving average, with key short-term resistance at 29,700.

Thursday, 11 June, US mid-session intraday rally (induced by US President Trump’s optimistic remarks on an imminent US-Iran peace deal) in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has paused right below the 20-day moving average, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline from the 3 June 2026 all-time high to 10 June 2026 low.

The prior 20-day moving average retest on Tuesday, 9 June, led to a 5.4% intraday drop in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD.

Hence, watch the 29,700 key short-term pivotal resistance; a break below 29,000 near-term support is likely to indicate yesterday’s recovery may be a “bull trap,” opening scope for further potential weakness towards the intermediate-range support of 28,280.

However, a clearance with an hourly close above 29,700 invalidates the bearish tone and opens the door to a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 30,075 and 30,530.

• Trump signals imminent US-Iran peace breakthrough, crude oil plunges 6%: Global risk assets experienced a massive relief rally after U.S. President Donald Trump pulled back threatened military strikes and signalled that a negotiated settlement to end the war is near. Trump cited “discussions brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership,” stating a signing ceremony could take place in Europe as soon as this weekend. WTI crude oil tumbled 6% to a 2-month low, settling at $86.43/bbl, sharply deflating recent geopolitical inflation premiums.
• Wall Street recovers as S&P 500 surges 1.8%: Major U.S. equity indexes halted a bruising two-day slide to stage a violent upward reversal. The S&P 500 bounded 1.8% higher as recession and energy-driven inflation anxieties eased on the heels of the Middle East diplomatic breakthrough, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rocketed up 3.3%.
• AI infrastructure and chip stocks stage 8% monster bounce: The beaten-down semiconductor sector led the broader market resurgence. A closely watched gauge of global chipmakers (SOX) jumped nearly 8% as momentum and dip-buying institutional capital flooded back into AI-concentric winners.
• SpaceX generates $250 billion in demand for historic $75 Billion Listing: Highlighting robust private-market liquidity, Elon Musk’s SpaceX successfully closed its historic $75 billion capital raise at a fixed price of $135 per share. The listing, which tracked as the largest-ever corporate market entry, drew over $250 billion in institutional demand and more than $100 billion in orders from retail investors, suggesting the IPO is nearly four times oversubscribed and relieving fears of an immediate liquidity squeeze in secondary public equities.
• The US is crowned the world’s Top oil exporter as shifting energy order sinks OPEC power: Data released on Thursday confirmed that the United States has officially overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world’s largest oil exporter. Spurred by structural production growth and geopolitical realignments since the war’s onset in February 2026, U.S. crude exports surged to 10.5 million barrels per day, significantly weakening OPEC’s historical pricing grip.

• De-escalation and the dismantling of the stagflation Premium: The overarching narrative shifting multi-asset portfolios was the swift unwinding of the geopolitical stagflation trade. The sudden pivot toward a comprehensive, high-level diplomatic settlement between Washington and Tehran completely re-baselined global energy risk expectations. With crude oil giving up its premium and the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz poised to remain open, market participants immediately scaled back expectations for a hawkish, energy-driven Federal Reserve interest rate hike in October, prompting a massive repricing across sovereign curves.
• Re-mooring of the mega-Cap AI growth thesis: The technical and fundamental damage sustained by semiconductor and AI infrastructure giants earlier in the week was aggressively repaired. Fears that massive, impending private listings (such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI) would permanently cannibalise secondary-market liquidity were alleviated as the SpaceX offering drew record-breaking oversubscriptions without causing an enduring drag on public-market tech stocks. The nearly 8% surge in chipmakers reflects institutional confirmation that corporate AI capital deployment remains fully supported by underlying liquidity in the capital markets.
• Realignment of global energy hegemony: The formal confirmation of the United States as the world’s dominant oil exporter marks a permanent structural shift in global trade dynamics. Driven by private-sector profit optimisation rather than state-mandated targets, the American shale and crude export complex has successfully absorbed disruptions to Middle Eastern and Russian supply. This structural dominance provides Washington with unparalleled economic leverage and diminishes the long-term effectiveness of traditional energy-weapon embargos.

Equities: The S&P 500 rose 1.8% to lead global equity boards out of a two-day correction. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed, with benchmark chip components rising nearly 8%. European bourses similarly caught a strong cross-Atlantic bid, with pan-region benchmarks erasing early industrial drags to close firmly in positive territory.

Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds staged a massive rally as inflation anxieties plunged alongside the sell-off in crude oil. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped 10 basis points to 4.46%, but remains above the 50-day moving average at 4.40%.

FX: The US Dollar Index fell 0.4% as safe-haven bids for the greenback dissipated. The euro erased earlier ex-post ECB losses, bouncing by 0.4% to settle at 1.1579, while the British Pound also added 0.4% to finish at $1.3416. The Japanese Yen gained 0.4% to 159.97 per dollar amid broader macro realignment.

Commodities: WTI crude oil tumbled 6% to settle at $86.43/bbl. Conversely, spot gold staged a minor rebound, surging 3.4% to $4,211/oz as a slide in sovereign bond yields enhanced the appeal of non-yielding safe havens, but still remained below its 20-day moving average at $4,425/oz.

1. Markets poised for aggressive opening rebound: While local Asian stock indexes closed lower on Thursday (MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.9%, and South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 3%) due to lagging responses to Wednesday’s late-day inflation data and initial war spikes, the subsequent overnight peace breakthrough in New York has left regional stock futures poised for a massive opening gap higher on Friday morning. So far, the intraday bullish tone is prevailing on Friday, Nikkei 225 (+3.4%), KOSPI (+8%), Hang Seng Index (+2%), China A50 (+1.2%), CSI 300 (+1.5%), ASX 200 (+1.9%), and STI (+0.4%). But fortunes may be reversed on Monday as we head into the non-trading weekend period for public markets with the “fluid” US-Iran situation at the forefront.

• Asian currency pressure alleviates: Local currency defence units received significant breathing room as the U.S. dollar index softened. The Indonesian Rupiah extended its gains by 0.4% to trade at 17,900 per US dollar, recovered by 1.5% from its all-time low of 18,1800 against the greenback on Monday. However, the South Korean Won weakened slightly by 0.3% to trade at 1,520.60 per US dollar.

1. SpaceX public listing Impact: US stock indices
2. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim (Jun) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: 46, May: 44.8) Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indices
3. US-Iran peace deal news flow Impact: All asset classes

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Stagflation fears returned sharply as President Trump’s threat of hard strikes on Iran pushed WTI crude back above US$90, while hot US CPI data reinforced expectations of a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve policy stance.
• Technology and AI-linked equities remain under heavy pressure as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sold off, weighed down by stretched valuations, semiconductor weakness, and concerns that mega tech IPOs may drain liquidity from public markets.
• Asia Pacific markets opened weaker amid global risk-off sentiment, with tech-heavy indices such as South Korea’s KOSPI and Taiwan’s TAIEX leading losses, while regional currencies remained under stress near multi-year lows.
• Chart of the day: Dow Jones (DJIA) rotation play evaporated; potential transition to a medium-term downtrend phase, with key short-term resistance at 50,390/540.

The earlier outperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday, 9 June, which eked out a 0.2% gain amid steep losses in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, has evaporated.

The last price action of the US Wall Street 30 CFD (a proxy for the DJIA E-mini futures) plummeted 1.9% on Wednesday, 11 June, and broke below its 20-day moving average, with a daily close below it (see Fig. 1).

Prior to the bearish breakdown of its 20-day moving average, the US Wall Street 30 CFD has breached below the medium-term ascending channel support from its 30 March 2026 low on Tuesday. These observations suggest the medium-term uptrend phase from 30 March 2026 has been demagaed, and it is now transiting into a potential medium-term downtrend phase.

Watch the 50,390/540 key short-term pivotal resistance for further potential weakness towards the next intermediate supports at 49,730 and 49,250/095 in the near-term.

On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 50,540 invalidates the minor bearish bias scenario for a corrective rebound for a retest on the next intermediate resistance at 50,895.

• Trump threatens hard strikes on Iran, crude rebounds past $90: Geopolitical tensions erupted into a volatile escalation on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. will be “attacking them, attacking them very hard.” The aggressive stance followed overnight strikes that damaged a fragile two-month truce, prompting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to surge by more than 3% back above $90 as hopes for a quick resolution faded.
• Wall Street rout wipes out weekly advances as megacaps slump: Equity markets experienced a broad liquidation as the S&P 500 tumbled 1.6%, wiping out this week’s gains. Risk-off sentiment intensified as major technology firms and a closely watched semiconductor gauge (SOX) slid 3.6%, adding to anxieties over stretched AI valuations.
• US CPI jumped to almost a 3-year high, reinforced hawkish rate vibes: The U.S. Labour Department released a red-hot consumer price index data that showed an increase of 4.2% y/y in May, its highest level since April 2023, threatening sticky, energy-driven inflation and renewed fears of an emergency Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year-end.
• AI Capital demands are raising concerns about an institutional liquidity drain: Wall Street strategists are signalling alarm about an unprecedented wave of equity supply from private tech giants looking to fund AI ambitions. Capital allocators note that mega-cap private listings, including SpaceX’s fixed $135/share offering and Anthropic’s confidential IPO tracking, are forcing funds to dump liquid public equities to build necessary cash reserves.
• Amazon’s expansion of its shipping service targets major trucking routes: Shares of several large transportation and logistics companies plunged on Wednesday. The aggressive drop came immediately after Amazon.com Inc. announced a sweeping expansion of its proprietary internal shipping network, directly rattling the commercial freight sector.

• The return of the stagflation dilemma: The core structural narrative guiding global macro desks shifted violently away from a “soft landing” and straight back toward stagflation risk. While consumer price metrics print near-stable levels, the persistence of an energy supply crunch amid direct military friction across the Middle East keeps input costs highly elevated. If the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor faces prolonged or indefinite disruptions, oil-driven price pressures will override corporate margin resilience, forcing global central banks to lean toward hawkish policies despite weakening economic output.
• The AI funding bottleneck and private Issuance pressures: An underlying undercurrent to the weakness in public technology markets is a massive, looming structural drain of institutional capital. A flood of major private corporations seeking public capital to fund intensive infrastructure requirements threatens to crowd out standard secondary-market liquidity. As capital allocators clear the deck for multi-billion and near-trillion-dollar valuations across private artificial intelligence and defence aerospace firms, existing public tech listings are facing a persistent ceiling on structural bids.
• Cross-asset volatility inversion: As standard multi-asset insurance models begin to fray, correlations across traditionally inverse asset classes are breaking down. Bond market volatility metrics remain structurally elevated near multi-decade highs, driven by shifting policy outlooks in Tokyo, Frankfurt, and Washington. Rather than serving as an organic buffer, fixed income has become an active vector of volatility, driving stock market risk premiums significantly higher year-to-date.

Equities: The S&P 500 lost 1.6%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 declined 2% as hardware and semiconductor names underperformed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.9% amid weakness in consumer retail and logistics. In Europe, the STOXX 600 retreated amid concerns about industrial vulnerabilities.

In today’s Asia opening session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures staged a relief bounce of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively after US Central Command declared that military strikes on Iranian targets have been “completed’.

Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds posted modest losses as safe-haven bids failed to fully offset hawkish rate-hike fears. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note advanced 4 basis points to settle near 4.55%. Internationally, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield advanced 3 basis points to 3.08%, and the UK’s 10-year Gilt yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.95%.

FX: The US Dollar Index traded almost unchanged on Wednesday as market participants await the ECB’s new monetary policy guidance today after fully pricing in a 25 bps hike for today’s policy meeting. The euro traded flat at 1.1535, and the British pound rested virtually unchanged at $1.3368.

The Japanese yen inched up by 0.1%, hovering around 160.50 per dollar, just a whisker below the 30 April 2026 high of 160.73 that triggered intervention from Japanese authorities. The worst performer was the risk-sensitive AUD, which fell 0.4% to a 2-month low of 0.7000 per dollar.

Commodities: Energy-dominated resource complexes, with WTI crude jumping 3.5% to settle at $91.84/bbl on Trump’s geopolitical remarks. Conversely, spot gold collapsed 4.4% to trade at $4,072/oz as non-yielding safe-havens buckled under the higher-for-longer assumption of global sovereign yields.

• Equity indices retest key support levels: Driven lower by deep overnight liquidation across New York tech megacaps, regional APAC benchmarks tracked heavy downside on Thursday, Asia opening session. Speculative positioning in tech-concentrated hubs such as South Korea’s KOSPI (-2.4%) and Taiwan’s benchmark TAIEX (-2.3%) came under intense pressure amid declines in local semiconductor companies. Intraday losses were seen in other bourses: Nikkei 225 (-1.5%), Hang Seng Index (-1.4%), China A50 (-0.3%), CSI 300 (-0.4%), ASX 200 (-0.3%), and STI (-0.5%).
• Regional currencies hit 17-year lows: Underlying currency defence limits remain under extreme stress across Asia. The South Korean Won continued to trade near a severe 17-year low of 1,530 against the greenback, prompting localised currency stability committees to keep maximum alert flags raised.
• Indonesian Rupiah anchors following emergency actions: Following a surprise emergency interest rate hike implemented during the prior session by Bank Indonesia to insulate the local capital account from global capital flight, the Indonesian Rupiah showed tentative signs of consolidation, holding its hard floor against the U.S. Dollar as it rebounded for the consecutive session from its record low of 18,180 printed on Monday, 8 June 2026.

1. ECB Interest Rate Decision - 8:15 pm SGT (consensus: 25 bps hike) Impact: EUR, EUR crosses, DAX, Bunds
2. US PPI (May) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 5.4% y/y, Apr: 5.2% y/y) Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indices, Gold
3. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 pm SGT Impact: USD, shorter-term US Treasuries, US stock indices
4. ECB Press Conference - 8:45 pm SGT Impact: EUR, EUR crosses, DAX, Bunds
5. US - Iran ceasefire agreement Impact: All asset classes

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• USD/JPY remains supported by a widening US-Japan yield differential. Markets are increasingly pricing a more hawkish Federal Reserve, with rising expectations of a Fed rate hike later in 2026, while the Bank of Japan appears likely to slow or pause its bond tapering programme despite an expected rate increase next week.
• The pair is approaching a key intervention zone near 160.40–160.70. Japanese authorities have already spent a record amount defending the yen earlier this year, making this area a critical level where renewed verbal or direct intervention risks may emerge.
• Technical momentum remains constructive in the near term. USD/JPY continues to trade within both a medium-term ascending wedge and a shorter-term rising channel, with momentum indicators remaining supportive of a further advance toward the 160.65, 161.14/20, and 161.60/95 resistance levels.

The market enters today’s US CPI print, facing building macro headwinds and energy shocks stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Following a complete evaporation of Fed rate-cut bets for 2026, the market is aggressively positioned for a bear-flattening yield curve environment under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. With futures now pricing in a 61% probability of a 25-bps hike in October, an upside surprise in today’s CPI, potentially pushing inflation to multi-year highs, will solidify the higher-for-longer regime and maintain structural upward pressure on the greenback.

Next week (June 15-16), the Bank of Japan is widely expected to shift its narrative toward becoming an active “inflation fighter”. Aggregated polls show nearly 94% of economists expect Governor Ueda to deliver a 25-basis-point hike, lifting the short-term policy rate to 1.00% from 0.75%, a level last seen in 1995. This hawkish tilt is directly responsive to the persistent inflationary impulses generated by the US-Iran war.

Crucially, to mitigate political friction with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and stabilise a volatile sovereign bond market where the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has recently hit a 30-year high of 2.8%, the BoJ is leaning towards pausing or slowing its bond-purchase taper next fiscal year.

By freezing further monthly purchase reductions (potentially keeping them steady near 2.1 trillion yen), the central bank hopes to cap the blowout of debt-servicing costs before yields breach the painful 3% threshold.

The shorter-term yield spread between the 2-year US Treasury and the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) has started to widen since hitting a 4-year low of 2.12% earlier in February 2026, which is also just a whisker above a major support of 2.05% (see Fig. 1).

The spread of the 2-year US Treasury-JGB yield has rebounded by 60 basis points to 2.72% as of Wednesday, 9 June 2026, which implies that the US Federal Reserve is adopting a more hawkish monetary policy stance over the Bank of Japan, in turn putting downside pressure on the Japanese yen as it flirts around the prior intervention area of 160.40/70, where Vice Finance Minister Mimura, in charge of foreign exchange issued a “final verbal warning” to speculators on 30 April 2026 before actual intervention took place on the same day.

Japanese authorities have spent a record $ 74.1 billion in the latest round of FX intervention to buy yen between 30 April 2026 and 6 May 2026, according to Finance Ministry data.

Let’s now unpack the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.

Trend bias: Minor uptrend with key short-term support pivotal at 159.75.

Resistances: 160.65 (30 Apr 2026 high), 161.14/20 (4/9 Jul 2024 congestion & Fibonacci extension), 161.60/95 (long-term pivot) (see Fig. 3).

Next supports: 159.45 (1/3 Jun 2026 congestion & 20-day MA), 159.10 (29 May 2026 low), 158.80 (21/25 May 2026 low & 50-day MA).

• Price actions of the USD/JPY have been oscillating within a medium-term “Ascending Wedge” configuration since the 27 January 2026 low, with its upper boundary coming in at 161.60/95 (see Fig.2).
• The recent minor uptrend phase remains intact, as price action in USD/JPY continues to evolve within a minor ascending channel in place from the 29 May 2026 low at 159.10 (see Fig. 3).
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator remains short-term bullish, holding above the 50 level (see Fig. 3).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Technology stocks remain under pressure as the AI trade undergoes a valuation reset. Semiconductor shares led another volatile session, with investors rotating capital away from existing tech winners amid concerns over stretched valuations and a growing pipeline of mega-sized IPOs, including SpaceX and OpenAI.
• Geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive market sentiment. Renewed US-Iran tensions following President Trump’s comments reinforced concerns over energy security and global supply chains, keeping investors highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
• Central banks are increasingly focused on financial stability and currency defence. Bank Indonesia’s surprise rate hike and reports of a potential Bank of Japan taper pause highlight policymakers’ growing willingness to intervene amid mounting pressure on currencies and sovereign bond markets.
• Chart of the day: Gold (XAU/USD) looking to extend further potential losses below $4,100 with key short-term resistance at $4,268/285.

Gold (XAU/USD) has extended its losses by 2% in today’s Asia session to trade at an intraday level of $4,174, just a whisker away from the 23 March 2026 medium-term swing low of $4,100. Given that the price action of gold (XAU/USD) is firmly entrenched below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, its medium-term downtrend from the 29 January 2026 all-time high remains intact (see Fig. 1).

Watch the $4,268/285 key short-term pivotal resistance to hold, as it maintains the ongoing minor bearish impulsive down move sequence, exposing the next intermediate supports at $4,187/167 and $4,100. Breaking below $4,100 may see a further deceleration towards $4,032 next in the first step.

However, a clearance with an hourly close above $4,285 negates the bearish tone, opening the door for another minor corrective rebound to retest the next intermediate resistance at $4,373/394 in the first instance.

• Global tech rout intensifies as chipmakers tumble 9%: A heavy wave of selling battered technology sectors worldwide on Tuesday. The semiconductor gauge (SOX), which had initially attempted a fragile bounce, fell 9% intraday before trimming losses to 1.9% at the close on Tuesday, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.1% and erasing prior efforts to scale back toward recent peaks.
• US-Iran friction spikes over helicopter strike: Hopes for a quick resolution to Middle East geopolitical conflicts faded after U.S. President Donald Trump publicly declared that the United States must actively respond to an Iranian attack on an American helicopter. The comments triggered immediate volatility across commodities and energy equities.
• Mega-cap tech IPO pipeline crowds public liquidity: Capital desks note that extreme equity volatility is being exacerbated by a massive pipeline of new tech listings. Following news that SpaceX’s landmark initial public offering is drawing extensive institutional oversubscription, OpenAI has formally filed a confidential U.S. IPO registration, aiming to chase rivals Anthropic and SpaceX toward historic multi-billion- and trillion-dollar public valuations.
• Bank of Indonesia taps emergency controls via surprise hike: In regional foreign exchange management, Bank Indonesia delivered an unannounced, surprise interest rate hike early Tuesday. The emergency monetary intervention successfully arrested a historic slide in the Indonesian Rupiah, triggering a strong short-covering bounce. The IDR extended its gains in today’s Asia session by 0.8% to trade at 17,990 per US dollar.
• Bank of Japan reportedly mulls taper pause: Fixed-income desks reacted aggressively to circulating reports that the Bank of Japan is actively considering a temporary pause or deceleration of its previously signalled bond-buying taper. The news triggered an immediate localised rally in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), the 10-year JGB yield dipped by 3 bps on Tuesday to close at 2.68%, still holding above its 50-day moving average at around 2.55%.

• The great funding drainage and valuation recalibration: The intensifying rotation out of richly priced technology names is evolving beyond a simple narrative shift. Institutional desks are increasingly highlighting a fundamental funding dilemma across global equities. With SpaceX seeking a massive $75 billion capital raise, Anthropic progressing through its listing path, and OpenAI targeting a public valuation of up to $1 trillion, large institutional allocators are being forced to trim existing liquid technology winners to make way for these massive generational private-market entries. This liquidity drain is actively structuring a ceiling on near-term public tech momentum.
• Geopolitical spillover into supply chain assets: Global markets continue to trade within a hyper-reactive geopolitical premium structure. While temporary halts in direct Israel-Iran strikes initially gave risk assets a brief window to capture a "dip-buying" bounce early in the Asian session, the subsequent U.S. rhetoric surrounding direct Iranian operations quickly reinforced the fragile baseline of global energy networks and shipping routes. The resulting cross-asset landscape remains structurally pinned to headlines, preventing standard macroeconomic or corporate fundamentals from asserting sustained price authority.
• Central banks locked in maximum-smoothing interventions: Emerging and developed monetary authorities across the Asia-Pacific region are navigating severe ceilings on currency depreciation. The surprise interest rate action out of Jakarta and the tactical JGB policy floating from Tokyo demonstrate that regional policymakers have reached structural boundaries where the absolute defence of financial stability supersedes long-term tightening blueprints. This interventionist posture is keeping sovereign yield curves highly compressed and prone to violent intraday gaps.

Equities: The S&P 500 closed down 0.3%, while the tech-concentrated Nasdaq 100 plunged 1.1% as semiconductor giants lost 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished slightly higher, with a meagre 0.2% gain on Tuesday, insulated by a deep institutional rotation into defensive, value-oriented blue chips. In today’s Asia session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures extended their losses by 0.3% and 0.4%.

Fixed Income: U.S. sovereign debt caught a mild haven bid on the back of Trump’s Middle East remarks, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down 5 bps to 4.52%, still above its 20-day moving average at 4.52%, ahead of today’s highly watched US CPI release.

FX: The US Dollar Index finished little changed. The euro remained stable at $1.1544, while the British pound climbed 0.3% to finish at $1.3379. The Japanese yen grinded lower by 0.1% towards the prior intervention zone, closing at 160.36 per US dollar. The risk-sensitive Aussie continued its descent by 0.3% to hit a 2-month low of 0.7028 against the greenback.

Commodities: WTI crude oil slumped 2.8% to close at $88.71/bbl, paring its sharpest intraday drop late in the session amid geopolitical updates. Safe-haven liquidation hit precious metals, pushing spot gold down 1.6% to settle at $4,260/oz.

• Equity rebound thwarted by US tech contagion: While Asian indices like Japan's Nikkei 225 bounced 2.2% on Tuesday, overnight weakness in US technology stocks triggered a negative feedback loop into Asian bourses today. Almost a sea of red at the start of today’s Asia session; Nikkei 225 (-1.9%), KOSPI (-5.1%), Hang Seng Index (-1.1%), China A50 (-0.3%), CSI 300 (-1%), and STI (-1%), while Australia’s ASX 200 managed to buck the trend with a minor gain of 0.1%.
• Indonesian rupiah rebounds on shock rate action: The Indonesian Rupiah emerged as a top regional outperformer, rallying sharply against the U.S. dollar after Bank Indonesia executed a surprise, emergency rate hike to defend its capital account against persistent capital flight and ongoing emerging market macro pressures.
• JGBs catch a wave of re-buying capital: Japanese Government Bonds rallied aggressively, driving domestic yields lower following formal reports indicating that the Bank of Japan is actively leaning toward a pause in its sovereign bond-purchase tapering program to stave off broader debt network illiquidity.

1. US Core Inflation Rate (May) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 2.9% y/y Apr: 2.8% y/y) Impact: All asset classes
2. BoC Interest Rate Decision - 9:45 pm SGT (consensus: 2.25%/unchanged) Impact: USD/CAD, CAD crosses
3. EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Report -10.30 pm SGT Impact: WTI and Brent crude
4. SpaceX Pre-IPO Bookbuilding Adjustments Impact: US stock indices
5. US-Iran developments over peace deal negotiations Impact: All asset classes

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The S&P 500 faces growing downside risks amid deteriorating market breadth. Despite a sharp rebound in semiconductor stocks, only three of the eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced, highlighting narrow leadership and a lack of broad-based participation in the rally.
• Rising expectations of Fed rate hikes are tightening financial conditions. Following a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, markets are increasingly pricing in Fed rate hikes starting as early as October 2026, which could pressure valuations, particularly in AI infrastructure and semiconductor-related sectors.
• Technical indicators point to further near-term weakness. The S&P 500 remains capped below its 20-day moving average, while the NYSE Advance/Decline line has broken below key support and flashed a bearish divergence, suggesting underlying distribution rather than accumulation.

The S&P 500, one of the four major US benchmark stock indices, posted a 2.6% weekly decline, halting its 9-week streak of consecutive gains, and recorded its worst weekly performance since the week of 23 March 2026 during the depths of the US-Iran war.

The bulk of last week’s losses came on Friday, 5 June, ex-post US non-farm payrolls induced a plunge of 2.64%, reinforcing a tighter liquidity condition ahead as Fed funds futures traders start to position for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve.

Based on the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool as of 9 June 2026, the increased odds of 63% that the Fed may start to enact its first 25 basis points (bps) rate hike as soon as the October 2026 FOMC meeting and another hike of 25 bps (63% chance) to come in April next year.

This hawkish Fed funds rate repricing is likely to dampen the earlier optimistic revenue guidance reported during the first-quarter US earnings reporting session, especially in the AI-infrastructure and semiconductor sectors, in turn, triggering a negative feedback loop into the S&P 500.

The “buy-the-dip” behaviour seen in US semiconductor stocks on Monday, 8 June, when the PHLX Semiconductor index surged by 5.6% to lead the intraday recovery, could be a “bull trap” as market breadth was weak.

Out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, only three of them managed to notch gains on Monday: Technology (+1.5%), Energy (+1.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%).

Also, the cumulative Advance/Decline line of all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has broken below a former medium-term ascending support after a bearish divergence condition, indicating a distribution pattern underneath rather than an accumulation after yesterday’s rally in US semiconductor stocks (see Fig. 1).

Let’s now decipher the short-term trajectories (1 to 3 days) of the SPX 500 CFD (a proxy of the S&P 500 E-mini futures).

Trend bias: Bearish reversal of medium-term uptrend, 7,496/522 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 2).

Supports: 7,340/327 (8 May/19 May 2026 minor lows), 7,270 (1 May 2026 former minor high & Fibonacci extension), 7,200 (28 April/5 May 2026 congestion & Fibonacci extension).

Next resistances: 7,566 (5 June 2026 minor high), 7,600 (2/5 June 2026 congestion).

• Yesterday’s rebound stalled at around 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor drop from the 5 June 2026 high to the 8 June 2026 low.
• Price actions remain below the 20-day moving average.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator remains capped below a descending resistance at around the 50 level.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.