• On the daily chart, USD/CHF is in a recovery phase, currently sandwiched between the 50-day MA (0.7845) and 100-day MA (0.7865).
• The H4 chart shows a more defined bullish structure, featuring a "Golden Cross" (100-period MA above 200-period MA).
• Failure to hold above the 0.7846 short-term support would negate the bullish setup and likely lead to a retest of the 0.7828 support level.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Bulls defend $4700 support. Is a break above $4750 on the way?

The daily timeframe shows USD/CHF in a recovery phase following the sharp sell-off witnessed in early 2026. After bottoming out near the 0.7600 handle, the pair has formed a series of higher lows, currently supported by an ascending trendline.

Price action is currently sandwiched between the 50-day MA (0.7845) and the 100-day MA (0.7865). A daily candle close above the 100-day MA would be a significant bullish signal, suggesting a shift in medium-term momentum.

However, the overhead 200-day MA at 0.7937 remains the "line in the sand" for bulls. Until that level is reclaimed, the overall daily structure remains cautious.

The RSI is hovering around the 50 midline, indicating a lack of clear directional conviction at this stage.

USD/CHF Daily Chart, April 24, 2026

Moving down to the 4-hour chart, we see a more defined bullish structure. USD/CHF has successfully pushed above the 0.7828 horizontal support level, which previously acted as a ceiling during the consolidation in mid-April.

Notably, the H4 chart shows the 100-period MA crossing above the 200-period MA, often a precursor to sustained bullish momentum.

Price is currently testing the 200-period MA (0.7887). A sustained break above this level would open the door for a retest of the psychological 0.8000 resistance area. The RSI on this timeframe is rising toward 65.00, suggesting there is still room for further upside before reaching overbought conditions.

USD/CHF Four-Hour Chart, April 24, 2026

The 1-hour chart provides a granular view of the current breakout attempt. Price has found a foothold above all three major moving averages (50, 100, and 200), which are now beginning to fan out, supporting the bullish thesis.

Potential Bullish Scenario: If USD/CHF can maintain its position above the 0.7846 level (the recent swing high and current H1 support), bulls will likely target the 0.7887 (H4 200 MA) followed by the 0.7920 area. A clean break of 0.7920 would suggest a run toward the major psychological barrier at 0.8000. The path of least resistance currently appears to be to the upside, provided the 0.7840-0.7828 support zone holds.

Potential Bearish Scenario: Failure to clear the immediate overhead resistance near 0.7870/80 could result in a "bull trap." If the pair slips back below the 0.7846 mark, it would likely revisit the 0.7828 support level. A break below 0.7828 would negate the short-term bullish bias and could see the pair slide back toward the 0.7800 handle as sellers regain control.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 0.7887, 0.7937, 0.8000
• Support: 0.7846, 0.7828, 0.7780

USD/CHF One-Hour Chart, April 24, 2026

USD/CHF is at a critical juncture. The daily chart shows a recovery in progress, while the lower timeframes suggest an imminent breakout. Traders should watch the 0.7887 level closely; a breakout here could ignite a fresh wave of buying interest heading into the weekend.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Pullback driven by geopolitical risk and USD strength: EUR/USD declined ~1.5% from its recent high as stalled US–Iran talks and rising oil prices boosted safe-haven demand for the US dollar.
• Macro backdrop turning supportive for euro: A steepening Eurozone–US rate differential suggests a relatively less dovish ECB versus the Fed, providing underlying support for EUR/USD.
• Technical setup points to potential rebound: Price is testing key support at 1.1665/1.1635 with bullish signals (trend above major MAs, RSI divergence, ascending channel), indicating a possible reversal unless support breaks.

The EUR/USD hit a recent two-month high of 1.1849 printed on last Friday, 17 April 2026, and turned soft due to the stalled second round of US-Iran peace talks, where it declined by 1.5% to hit a low of 1.1669 on Thursday, 23 April 2026.

Secondly, cracks have appeared in the extended ceasefire agreement, where both sides are using force to prevent oil tankers from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a 10% plus rally in oil prices, increasing the appeal of short-term safe haven demand status on the US dollar.

Interestingly, the EUR/USD’s five-day decline from its recent two-month high has reached an inflection area for a potential bullish reversal from a technical analysis and intermarket perspective.

Let’s uncover these factors in greater detail.

The monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for the Eurozone and the US are calculated using short-term interest rate futures that are highly sensitive to the expectations on these countries’ central banks' monetary policies

The current Eurozone/US implied interest rate policy curve spread for the period from May 2026 to September 2026 has steepened from three months ago, with the current September 2026 reading standing at -1.32% compared to -1.37% three months ago (see Fig. 1).

These observations suggest that the ECB is likely to be less dovish or more hawkish than the Fed, which in turn could provide support for a potentially firmer EUR/USD.

Let’s now focus on the potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of EUR/USD.

Despite the five-day decline seen in the EUR/USD, its price actions are still trading above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages.

Watch the 1.1665/1635 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 1.1722 (potential upside trigger) may see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 1.1790, 1.1835, and 1.1890 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).

On the other hand, failure to hold at 1.1635 and an hourly close below it invalidates the bullish reversal scenario to see the continuation of the corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 1.1575 and 1.1510.

• The five-day decline of the EUR/USD has reached the intersection area of the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, where the 20-day MA is now shaping an impending bullish crossover above the 50-day MA.
• The price actions of the EUR/USD have continued to oscillate within its minor ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just shaped a bullish divergence condition at its oversold region on Thursday, 23 April 2026.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 23

Surprisingly, markets haven't traded much on the highly uncertain picture that has developed over recent days.

Even though President Trump extended the temporary ceasefire, the diplomatic reality remains quite murky, with Iran decidedly undecided on exactly who will attend the negotiations and when these critical talks will even take place.

On the macroeconomic front, today was an important PMI session.

The headline numbers looked exceptionally strong across the globe, with US Manufacturing hitting four-year highs and the Services sector beating expectations by a solid margin, coming in at 51.3 versus the 50.3 forecast.

However, looking under the hood reveals some underlying issues.

Much of this surging activity is actually being driven by front-loaded pre-orders, as businesses desperately stockpile goods due to fears of war-led supply chain shortages. This notably propelled Manufacturing way above Services.

While this recent strength in global data is a welcome sign—especially as it accompanies record earnings across various US sectors—we are still in early 2026.

These geopolitical dynamics can disturb the decent economic landscape in a flash, making the macro data in the coming months absolutely essential to watch as the true toll of the war and higher oil prices filters into the global economy.

The intraday mood did shift abruptly when President Trump actively changed his tone.

Ceaselessly receiving questions on the timeline for the Iran negotiations, he bluntly told reporters, "Don't rush me", and Investors didn't like it much – The passive aggressive tone is beginning to create some doubts

With the Army maintaining the aggressive US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian economy is receiving quite a toll and this is being used as maximum pressure to force Tehran into a deal sooner rather than later.

After a stellar, record-breaking week for risk assets, tomorrow's Friday session will be a critical test of weekend risk, as traders must decide whether they want to hold these historic highs into an increasingly tense geopolitical blur.

Read More:

• Silver (XAG/USD) is under pressure from Ceasefire clouds – In-depth analysis
• Markets are stuck in the waiting for US-Iran talks – Market Check
• Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Bulls defend $4700 support. Is a break above $4750 on the way?
• USD/JPY maintains a clear range ahead of Japanese CPI – FX Analysis

As you can see on today's heatmap, the PMIs still have quite a large effect on daily Market activity, with strong rotation flows towards more defensive sectors after the Manufacturing beat.

After heavy rises throughout the week, this profit-taking may just continue.

WTI exploded again above $96 as the tone soured and traders are slowly exiting their heavy risk-on positioning accumulated throughout the week.

The rise in Black Gold is hurting all other risk-assets, subject to some heavier inflationary pressures.

Above $100, the profit-taking may just accelerate further, so be careful.

The US Dollar is subject to a continuous rebound since reaching its 98.00 Support last Friday, and this is applying pressure on all other FX currencies.

The next 24 hours will be very important for global Markets, between Japan's CPI and Retail Sales for the UK and Canada that should keep FX Markets on their toes.

But most importantly, prepare for an important weekend risk session.

As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations that should happen over the weekend.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Precious metals have been the victim of a severe reality check since late January.

Subjects of severe melt-ups since August 2025, following a slow but consistent grind higher from de-dollarization trends, the commodities got swept on all sides with extreme leverage and volatility.

And in Financial Markets, it rarely translates into anything good – Silver lost about 50% of its value in a flash crash during mid-February.

It has stalled its correction since, but the price action is still far from bullish.

Fast-forward to the beginning of the US-Iran War; A key narrative was the safe-haven appeal of the precious commodities, particularly gold, which has historically performed well during periods of tension.

But this safe-haven status was severely put in question during this conflict, as the asset class tumbled whenever Crude Oil and the US Dollar rallied, which were highly correlated with Stock Market movements.

With these Market dynamics, the question of whether metals aren't actually risk assets at current valuations is a logical one.

Still, Silver held relatively well, rebounding alongside other assets at the announcement of the Ceasefire and reaching +35% at its highs.

The issue, however, is that even with Equity benchmarks consolidating at all-time highs, the grey metal just isn't able to form a consistent uptrend. XAG just rejected its $84 resistance yet again, getting pressured by the cloudy peace narrative.

Will metals regain their safe-haven status in the event of a rebound in tensions?

Difficult to say for now – what is sure is that they faced high pressure from rising oil prices, so keep Black Gold in check if you want to trade the commodity.

We will dive into a Silver two-timeframe intraday analysis to prepare for a high-potential volatility event this coming weekend. Let's get right into it.

Read More:

• Markets are stuck in the waiting for US-Iran talks – Market Check
• Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Bulls defend $4700 support. Is a break above $4750 on the way?
• USD/JPY maintains a clear range ahead of Japanese CPI – FX Analysis

Silver retraced higher by 35% after reaching new $61 cycle lows during the war, but Participants used the rebound to take-profit on the dip.

The precious metal is down 9.30%, has officially broken and retested its recovery bull channel, which is not giving a good look for bulls.

Now testing the low of its major $75 Pivot point, there is an ongoing battel between short-term bulls and bears – To get a better idea of who will win on the short-run, we need to take a closer look.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• Major Resistance $83 to $84.50
• Friday highs $83
• Higher timeframe Range Resistance $90 to $92
• $96.47 March highs

Support Levels:

• Pivot lows $74.50 - $75
• $70 Minor Support
• December FOMC Minor Support $60 to $64 (Feb Lows)
• $61.10 War Lows
• $50 to $54 Major Support

Bears took the back control of the action since last Friday, forming a counter-trend bear channel which remains key to short-term trading.

However, bulls are defending the Pivot Zone lows ($74.50 to $75) and will went to use this move to break above the 50-Hour MA ($77), acting as key area for sellers since the turn lower.

Above this, the next short term resistance is at $79.

A range could easily establish in this Pivot zone as long as the geopolitical situation remains cloudy.

Breakout traders should watch for pushes above or below these key intraday levels.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Those who were looking for action this week barely got served.

A single session of volatility occurred on Tuesday, when rumors of failing talks between the US and Iran could lead to a re-starting of the War as the Ceasefire deadline came close.

But it wouldn't be a normal Tuesday without a classic Trump TACO.

While both parties were preparing to resume the conflict, with 4 hours to the end of the Ceasefire, the President extended the Ceasefire without any clear deadline and allowed priorly anxious Markets to explode higher in overnight Futures trading.

Since, however, Markets have been in an absolute deadlock, with rare movements across Metals, Stocks, Currencies and Cryptos (which couldn't find the momentum to sustain their past session's move).

The latest narratives are pointing to infighting between the Revolutionary Guards and a more progressive governmental party in order to bring diplomats to the table.

On the US side, they really are eager to push for a peace deal, so except if they fail to align a team for the talks, the process should still be towards peace (which is why Stocks are staying at relative highs).

Check out this passive-aggressive Post by the President!

Nobody knows what the Islamic regime has in mind, so except for gamblers, Participants will have to remain patient and lean on current pricing to prepare for breakout plays when some news drop.

Let's check out a few charts to get an idea of where to look.

Discover:

• Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Bulls defend $4700 support. Is a break above $4750 on the way?
• Chart alert: WTI crude oil at risk of mean reversion decline below $102.25 after 5% spike
• Intel (INTC) Technical: Overstretched rally, corrective decline looms below 72.54/75.76 within major uptrend

Stock Markets haven't been able to generate much traction in recent sessions, and the flows should remain the same as long as no concrete news emerge for the peace in the Middle East

Tech investors have been fearless!

Nasdaq is up close to 18% from its War lows. A shocking rise that left most investors scratching their heads – Watch out for a slow down in momentum, showing small bearish divergence.

Monday's open will be essential, with more news expected by that time.

The Dow Jones could actually reflect the positive but cautious stance from investors, while the Tech-heavy index gets pulled higher by pre-earnings inflows into Mag 7s'

Check out intraday levels for Stock Markets right here.

Metals are really struggling to find traction in recent action with a fake-out above $80 and finding pressure from a still not advancing Middle East situation.

Bears are taking the upper hand for now, having broken the bull channel from the Ceasefire ecstasy. Watch for a break of $74 for bearish acceleration.

Traders will have to be cautious for continued profit-taking, but overall, it seems that the action is long-term rangebound ($65 to $85) for now.

Don't forget to check out our morning Gold piece!

While they remain more bullish than bearish, they will have to maintain stronger momentum to make sure that these moves don't fade lower.

Traders will have to see if they manage to retain a bid even if the narrative worsens.

Don't forget to check out our past day Crypto analysis right here.

The US Dollar has mean reverted highs after a test of its mid-range 98.00 Support.

Bouncing to 2-week highs today, the move seems contained by the narrative and forming a downward channel – This pattern could be fragile particularly if the war was to resume in the absence of talks.

Check out our in-depth US Dollar and FX reviews right here:

• USD/JPY maintains a clear range ahead of Japanese CPI – FX Analysis
• A temporary Ceasefire extension maintains a bullish action – North American Mid-Week Market Update

As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The price is consolidating tightly between the crucial $4,700 support and the $4,750 resistance level.
• Price action is consolidating around key structural levels, suggesting a breakout from the $4,700–$4,750 range is imminent and will dictate the direction for the rest of the week.
• Bullish/Bearish Triggers: A sustained break above $4,804 signals the end of the corrective phase, while a decisive hourly close below $4,700 could trigger a sell-off toward $4,601.

Most Read: USD/JPY maintains a clear range ahead of Japanese CPI – FX Analysis

Gold has experienced a period of significant uncertainty this week as tensions in the Middle East remain on a knife edge. As we head into the upcoming sessions, price action is consolidating around key structural levels, suggesting a breakout may be imminent. Will traders commit without a resolution in the Middle East?

Looking at the Daily timeframe, Gold remains in a primary uptrend, supported by its position well above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (MA) currently sitting at $4238. However, the recent price action shows a significant cooling off from the $5,400 peaks.

The $4,700 level has emerged as a crucial floor for the bulls. This level previously acted as resistance and has now flipped to support, reinforced by the 100-day MA (blue line) which is currently tracking just above $4735. The RSI is hovering near the 47 mark, indicating a neutral momentum phase, neither overbought nor oversold, giving the metal plenty of room to move in either direction without immediate exhaustion.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, April 23, 2026

Moving down to the 4-hour chart, the picture becomes more nuanced. Price is currently oscillating within a descending channel or a large "falling wedge" pattern.

While traditionally a bullish reversal pattern, the H4 chart shows Gold struggling to reclaim the 100 and 200 MAs.

The immediate hurdle for bulls is the $4804 resistance zone. A sustained break above this level and the upper boundary of the descending channel would be the first major signal that the corrective phase is over and the broader uptrend is resuming.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 23, 2026

The 1-hour chart provides a clearer view of the immediate battleground. We are seeing a tight consolidation between the $4700 support and the $4750 resistance area.

Bullish Scenario: For a bullish move to materialize in the upcoming sessions, buyers need to clear the immediate intraday resistance at $4750.

A break above the descending trendline on this timeframe would open the door for a retest of $4772 (200 MA) and eventually the major psychological barrier at $4800. A "Bull" signal on the RSI Divergence indicator suggests that downward momentum is fading, supporting a potential bounce.

Bearish Scenario: On the flip side, the bears remain in control of the short-term trend. If Gold fails to break above the H1 descending trendline, a retest of the $4700 support is likely.

A decisive hourly close below $4,700 would be a significant technical blow, potentially triggering a sell-off toward the next structural support at $4601.

Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 23, 2026

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: $4750, $4804, $4899
• Support: $4700, $4601, $4500

Gold is at a crossroads. The daily trend remains bullish, but the intraday charts show a market looking for a catalyst. Traders should watch the $4700 – $4750 range closely. A breakout on either side of this corridor will likely dictate the direction for the remainder of the week.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/JPY is often playing tricks on FX traders, and this time it is completely avoiding volatility after gigantic up-and-down moves.

The Currency pair is known for its erratic price action, highly affected by movements in rates, global trade, and inflation, as well as regional and geopolitical developments, all of which have been severely affected since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict.

Seen as a major safe-haven currency since the early 2000s, profiting from lower yields in times of panic, the JPY could not find any appeal during this conflict.

Even as stock markets initially sold off, risk-off assets and currencies failed to gain traction, with the US Dollar and WTI Crude drawing all the attention.

Believing the conflict would stay focused on the Middle East, a wider flight to safety was avoided.

But the economic damage to Europe, and in the case of today's USD/JPY outlook, Japan and Asia, is still heavy, and that led to massive rallies in the US Dollar against currencies from these regions.

You can see the strong correlation between USD/JPY and Oil movements in our recent analysis of the pair.

Add to this narrative a striking stall in inflation in Japan, which was the only path to justify a return to less accommodative policy, and Traders really found a natural terrain to race back to Japan shorts.

The Japanese CPI, releasing tonight at 19:30 (ET), is expected to rebound, as supply-side inflationary pressures could once again slowly push Japanese consumer prices higher.

The Bank of Japan mentioned conflict-led inflation a few times but reportedly still leans toward a pause at the upcoming meeting, while hinting at a higher chance of a 25 bps hike in June to allow for further analysis of the war's impact.

So, unless CPI beats expectations by a lot, this pricing shouldn't change much.

With the second round of talks, delayed for almost a week and a half, set to resume tomorrow and continue throughout the weekend, this will be a decisive moment for the FX pair.

Forming a clear 2,000 pip hesitation range in recent action, traders are waiting to see if a proper peace solution is met (implying a break lower in the range) or if the war is to resume, which would add further chances to revisit 2026 highs (above 160.00).

Let's dive right into an intraday-timeframe analysis for the Gopher – more commonly named, USD/JPY.

Read More:

• Markets Today: UK PMI beats as input costs soar, DXY advances & Gold grinds lower. US PMI & Middle East tensions in focus
• Chart alert: WTI crude oil at risk of mean reversion decline below $102.25 after 5% spike
• A temporary Ceasefire extension maintains a bullish action – North American Mid-Week Market Update

Instead of entering a corrective phase, as was forecasted by the break below key MAs and bull channel, USD/JPY maintained a clearly rangebound picture as the US Dollar completely stalled its correction.

Since reaching new 2026 highs on March 27, the pair has been stuck in a clear 2,000 pip range between 157.50 and 159.50 (+/- 100 pips).

While the consolidation is solid, as seen with the flattening 50 and 200 Moving Averages, traders will have to remain cautious as the narrative could change during the weekend.

Currently at the resistance, USD/JPY has more chances to reject lower, but any headlines regarding a compromised peace process would push for a breakout towards 160.50.

Let's take a closer look.

As can be seen on the 1H timeframe, the range has seen swift up-and-down movement, tumbling to support last Friday and exploding back to retest resistance.

With today's North American session not expected to provide any meaningful change, traders should remain patient.

If the CPI data comes hotter, expect to see a drop below 159.43 (50-Hour MA) which could provide decent sell-stop entries – Extending below 158.80 should see bearish acceleration.

• Watch out if the action breaks 159.80
• The weekend break will provide high volatility movement on Monday, so watch your size ahead of the key developments.

Resistance levels

• 159.50 to 159.70 2026 Major Resistance (range highs)
• 159.78 daily highs
• April 2024 160.00 to 160.40 Major Resistance
• June Mini resistance 160.70 to 161.00

Support levels

• 159.43 (50-Hour MA)
• Mid-range pivot 158.75 bull above, bear below
• December highs Major Pivot 157.50 to 158.00 (range lows)
• 156.00 Pivotal Support
• 155.00 Mini-Support

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Strong rally driven by strategic positioning: Intel (INTC) has surged ~80% YTD, fueled by its “national champion” status, US government backing, and key AI partnerships, marking a sharp turnaround after years of underperformance.
• Earnings outlook weak despite price strength: Q1 2026 EPS is expected to drop ~85% YoY, highlighting a disconnect between fundamentals and the recent equity rally ahead of earnings.
• Technicals signal potential pullback: The rally appears overstretched, with rejection near channel resistance and overbought RSI unwinding, bearish bias below 72.54/75.76, with downside risk toward 54–40 unless a breakout above resistance sustains.

Intel is a star performer in the US stock market, where its share price has surged by almost 80% year-to-date as of 22 April 2026 (see Fig. 1), a dramatic bullish reversal following years of underperformance.

The catalysts for such a remarkable turnaround are Intel’s “National Champion” status, where the current US White House administration holds a 9.9% stake, cementing its strategic importance in the push for the US to become a global powerhouse in Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications.

Secondly, strategic foundry partnerships with other key US AI platforms and hardware firms such as Tesla, Alphabet (the parent company of Google), and Nvidia, making Intel a significant player and contributor in the US’s AI infrastructure cycle.

Intel’s current year-to-date performance of 80% is ranked in 12th position in the S&P 500 benchmark stock index, where the top position goes to another AI-related hardware player, SanDisk (SNDK), with a whopping YTD gain of 300% (see Fig. 2).

Intel will report its Q1 2026 earnings results after the close of today’s (Thursday, 22 Apr 2026) US trading session.

Consensus forecasts point to a sharp earnings slowdown, with Q1 EPS expected to decline from $0.13 to $0.02, an approximately 85% drop compared to the same quarter a year earlier.

Overstretched rally seen in Intel from its 30 March 2026 low of 40.63. Bearish bias for a mean reversion corrective down move below 72.54/75.76 key medium-term pivotal resistance towards 54.25/50.60 (see Fig. 3).

A break below 54.25/50.60 (also the 50-day moving average) may trigger a further potential corrective decline within its major uptrend phase to expose the next medium-term support at 43.76/40.63 (also the 200-day moving average).

On the other hand, a clearance with a daily close above 75.76 invalidates the mean reversion corrective decline scenario for the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 81.90/84.05 (Fibonacci extension cluster).

• The recent rebound of 70% from 30 March 2026 to the current all-time high of 70.33 printed on 17 April 2026 has reached the upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel.
• Price actions in the past three sessions have shaped a bearish reaction after a retest on the upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel, which confluences right below a Fibonacci extension cluster of 72.54/75.76, increasing the odds of a mean reversion corrective decline.
• The daily RSI momentum indicator has exited from its overbought region after it hit an extreme overbought zone of 78.20/78.76 on 17 April 2026.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
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• The US Dollar is poised for its first weekly gain in a month, buoyed by safe-haven bids amid escalating geopolitical risk and the resulting energy shock.
• European equities opened cautiously lower, with the STOXX 600 dipping 0.2%, although strong corporate earnings from Nestle and L'Oreal provided some sectorial support.
• UK PMI data showed resilience, beating expectations, but record input costs for service providers signal that inflationary pressures are becoming "sticky"
• US PMI and Middle East tension in focus later in the day.

Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?

Market sentiment remains rather undecided despite the rally in US indexes yesterday. The US Dollar is attracting a haven bid while Gold continues to grind lower, suggesting market participants remain somewhat cautious.

The Greenback is on track for its first weekly gain in a month this Thursday as geopolitical risk premia return to the forefront. A deepening standoff between Iran and the US, coupled with a distinct lack of progress on the diplomatic front, has pushed oil prices back above the psychological $100 a barrel mark, weighing heavily on broader market sentiment.

At this stage, the two sides remain fundamentally at odds over key sticking points, including the current blockades, nuclear concerns, and control of the Strait. With the waterway effectively remaining under threat, the resulting energy shock continues to ripple through global markets, posing a significant headwind for global economic growth.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major peers, edged higher to trade around the 98.60 mark. This puts the index on track for a weekly gain of 0.4%, marking its first positive weekly performance in a month.

While the Dollar served as the primary safe-haven beneficiary when the conflict first erupted in March, optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire and peace deal earlier this month saw a rotation back into risk-sensitive currencies.

However, that relief rally appears to be fizzling out.

Major Currencies Under Pressure

• EUR/USD: The Euro remained largely flat at $1.17, having earlier hit its softest levels since mid-April. The single currency is bracing for a 0.5% weekly decline, snapping a three-week winning streak.
• GBP/USD: Cable slipped 0.1% to trade at $1.3484. Sterling bulls seemed unfazed by data indicating that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran is already weighing on UK consumer sentiment, particularly as households scale back on fuel expenditure.
• USD/JPY: The Yen weakened slightly to 159.56, hovering dangerously close to the 160.00 handle, a level many participants view as the "line in the sand" for potential BoJ intervention.

Meanwhile, interest rate markets are currently pricing in a modest 25% probability of a Fed cut before year-end, contrasting sharply with the ECB, where traders are factoring in two potential hikes for 2026.

Currency Power Balance

European equities edged lower during Thursday’s session as market participants balanced a fresh wave of corporate earnings against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty.

The pan-European STOXX 600 dipped 0.2% to trade at 612.98 by 07:18 GMT, reflecting a general sense of caution permeating the floors. Major regional indices followed suit; Germany's DAX shed 0.2%, while the FTSE 100 underperformed with a 0.5% decline.

Sector Performance and Earnings Drivers

The session saw a clear divide in sector performance, largely dictated by commodity moves and individual corporate updates:

• Energy (.SXEP): Was a notable outlier, climbing 0.6% as crude prices maintained their upward trajectory.
• Telecommunications (.SXKP): Showed resilience, leading the gainers with a 1.2% advance.
• Banking (.SX7E): Faced the brunt of the selling pressure, languishing at the bottom of the pile with a 1.1% drop.

On the corporate front, consumer staples provided some fireworks. Nestle (NESN.S) saw its shares surge 6% after the food giant reaffirmed its full-year organic growth guidance of 3%-4%. Similarly, L'Oreal (OREP.PA) shares jumped 8% following a robust first-quarter update, which revealed sales growth of 6.7%—its strongest quarterly performance in two years.

Despite these pockets of strength in the consumer space, the broader market remains tethered to the "risk-off" sentiment driven by the ongoing energy shock and geopolitical stalemates.

Read More:

• Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 gap-down stalled above 26,288/142 key support, bulls are still in control
• A real peace process or a fantasy? – Markets Weekly Outlook
• Euro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?

The S&P Global UK Composite PMI staged a significant recovery in April 2026, jumping to 52.0 from 50.3 in March. The reading comfortably cleared market expectations of 49.8, signaling renewed traction across the British private sector despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

The uptick was broad-based, with both Manufacturing (51.8) and Services (52.0) returning to expansionary territory. This performance highlights a notable degree of resilience to the ongoing energy shock and soaring power prices stemming from the conflict in Iran.

New Orders Steady, but Outlook Remains Clouded

While aggregate new business remained stable, the underlying data reveals a more nuanced picture:

• Manufacturing: Growth in new orders was largely driven by clients "frontloading", placing orders early to hedge against anticipated supply chain disruptions and war-driven volatility.
• Services: New business saw a marginal reduction, as high costs began to bite into demand.

Labor Market Struggles and Inflationary Heat

Despite the headline growth, two major headwinds persist for the UK economy:

1. Employment Contraction: Headcounts fell for the 19th consecutive month. Firms frequently cited the burden of higher National Insurance contributions as a primary driver for the continued hiring freeze.
2. Record Input Costs: Service providers faced the sharpest rise in input costs on record. This surge pushed aggregate charge inflation to its highest level since June 2022, suggesting that inflationary pressures are becoming increasingly "sticky" as firms pass higher energy and labor costs onto consumers.

With input costs for service providers hitting record highs, how much longer do you think the BoE can justify staying on the sidelines before tackling this renewed inflationary surge?

Diplomatic prospects in the Middle East remain murky. While the White House is pushing for a return to the table, with President Trump suggesting talks could restart tomorrow—Tehran has yet to provide any official confirmation. The U.S. desire for a swift resolution is a positive, but the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a major red flag for global trade.

Market Implications

The current backdrop continues to favor the US Dollar and commodity currencies, though the latter's strength depends on whether equities can remain resilient despite the geopolitical noise.

Macro Watch: S&P Global PMIs

Today’s focus shifts to the S&P Global PMIs. While usually secondary to the ISM, these figures offer a crucial comparison to European performance. Markets are anticipating an improvement in both the manufacturing and services sectors over March’s figures.

Key Question: Will the U.S. data show enough strength to justify the Dollar's recent climb, or will inflationary input costs start to flash warning lights for the Fed?

Gold prices are facing increased selling pressure on the H4 chart as the safe-haven metal struggles to maintain its footing. The precious metal is currently trading within a descending channel, characterized by lower highs and lower lows, indicating a clear shift in short-term momentum.

Key Technical Levels

• Resistance: Immediate resistance sits at the 4739 mark (100-day MA), followed by the psychological 4776 level (200-day MA).
• Support: Price is currently testing a key horizontal support level at 4700. A sustained break below this could open the door for a move toward the 4600 handle.

Momentum Indicators

The RSI is currently hovering near 35, approaching oversold territory but still showing room for further downside. With the price trading below both major MAs and the RSI reflecting bearish dominance, the path of least resistance remains to the downside unless we see a fundamental catalyst shift the geopolitical narrative.

Gold H4 Chart, April 23, 2026

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• False alarm-driven spike fades quickly: WTI crude surged 5% on unverified reports of an attack in Tehran but retraced most gains after confirmation it was a drill, highlighting headline-driven volatility amid a fragile US–Iran ceasefire.
• Market signals point to limited upside: Declining implied volatility and reduced backwardation suggest easing supply stress and cap near-term bullish momentum, reinforcing the view that the recent spike is largely “noise.”
• Technicals favour mean reversion decline: Oil is testing range resistance near the 20-day MA, with bearish momentum signals (RSI divergence) indicating downside risk toward $90.50 and potentially $86–82 unless $102.25 is decisively broken.

The US-Iran ceasefire agreement extension by US President Trump to an indefinite period is in a “fragile state”, as the US waits for Iran’s new proposal to kickstart another round of peace talks.

The US and Iran have continued to be locked in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global energy flows, with both sides blocking the waterway in a “game of poker” to gain leverage during the extended ceasefire.

On Wednesday, 22 April 2026, Iranian navy forces fired on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz while the US intercepted two Iranian-registered oil tankers.

In today's (Thursday, 23 April 2026) early Asian session at around 8.00 am Singapore time, there was an unconfirmed social media post on X that highlighted sounds of an explosion heard across Iran, leading to fears that the US-Iran extended ceasefire has ended (see Fig. 2).

West Texas crude oil futures traded on NYMEX spiked up almost 5% within 15 minutes to print an intraday high of $97.22/barrel (see Fig. 1), leading to minor risk-off activities in today’s Asian session; (S&P 500 E-mini futures -0.5%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 +0.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index – 1.1%, AUD/USD -0.2%) at this time of writing.

Thereafter, a social post on X stated that the earlier explosions turned out to be a drill and a test on the Iranian air defence system, and there were no attacks in Tehran.

The price action of the West Texas crude oil futures has trimmed its intraday gains to 1.3% to trade at an intraday level of $94.27/barrel.

Technical analysis suggests that the current spike up in West Texas oil is more likely a “noise”, and the minor sideways range configuration since 14 April 2026 to 17 Apr 2026 remains intact.

Here are the key factors to support this narrative.

The WTI crude oil ETF volatility index (OVX) measures the market’s expected 30-day implied volatility in crude oil prices, derived from near-term USO ETF options.

So far, it has started to print a series of “lower highs” since the 7 April 2026 level of 98.79, towards a value of 76.77 as of 22 April 2026, putting a near-term ceiling on higher oil prices (see Fig. 3).

The recent steep rallies in oil prices seen during the onset of the US-Iran war have been accompanied by a negative WTI crude oil calendar spread, where the 12-month futures price is less than the spot price.

A negative spread (backwardation) signals perceived near-term supply shortages, where immediate demand is pushing spot prices above futures.

The backwardation (WTI 12-month futures minus spot) is now at -19.90 as of 22 April 2026, less than its recent peak backwardation level of -41.57, printed earlier on 2 April 2026 (see Fig. 2).

Let’s now focus on the potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of WTI crude oil.

The recent push-up seen on the West Texas oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) from its range support zone of $86.50/81.94 has reached its range resistance zone of $96.44/98.35 (also the 20-day moving average).

At risk of a mean reversion decline back towards the range bottom, watch the $102.25 short-term pivotal resistance at $102.25, and a break below $90.50 reinforces the minor mean reversion decline scenario to retest the range support zone of $86.50/81.94 (also the 50-day moving average) (see Fig. 4).

However, a clearance with an hourly close above $102.25 invalidates the bullish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at $107.12/110.87.

• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought zone (above the 70 level) and staged an exit below it.
• The 22% rally from its 17 April 2026 low of $81.94 has reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior down move from the 7 April 2026 high to 17 April 2026 low that confluences with the 20-day moving average resistance.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 22

The recent peace rally seen across Stock Markets, particularly in the US, is easily one of the most hated and misunderstood move since the 2022 bear-market rebound.

The narrative hasn't changed the slightest but there has been a clear lack of progress or any sign of clarity regarding what's coming next with the streak of back and forth passive-aggressive negotiations (which have still yet to begin).

The US side is still very eager to reach a deal, but Iran is surprisingly very resilient despite the heavy chokehold that the US blockade is inflicting on their economy – The latest demands from the Islamic regime are to lift the blockade in order to move on with the talks.

Many conditions are being required to move on to the next phase of the peace process, but rumors are pointing to revolutionary guards and Iranian government parties just unable to reach a consensus.

In the meantime, tech-buyers are still buoyant and pushing the Nasdaq, Tech Mega Caps and Cryptocurrencies in a gigantic rebound that is brushing all types of late short-sellers and doubters aside.

Nevertheless, one thing to be wary about is the fact that both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 haven't able to join the rally – A lack of Market breadth?

Surely, but it just continues the trend of local plays in Stock Markets where investors flock into relatively undervalued sectors – And looking at recent earnings reports, they tend to attack anticipating dip-buyers.

So after the major earnings week, current levels will have to be confirmed (particularly if the War continues).

Read More:

• Cryptos breakout of bear trends, but will it continue? Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) Outlook
• Nasdaq breaks a new record after Ceasefire extension – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook
• A temporary Ceasefire extension maintains a bullish action – North American Mid-Week Market Update

The session close heatmap is once again proving how important Tech stocks are to the general Market sentiment.

With Semiconductors and softwares still extending their stellar rebounds, Wall Street shines bright. Only the more defensive Producer Manufacturing, Communications and Transportation sectors are hurting.

On the former, watch out for short-covering which extends the current move in softwares but this could imply a lack of depth in coming times.

Tesla earnings just got released and continue to underpin the idea that the US Consumer isn't showing the slightest concern in early 2026 – You can check out more on their recent report right here.

Tomorrow will continue the new phase of the earnings season with some more traditional names reporting including SAP, Sanofi and American Express

Nasdaq and Cryptos are the only assets showing any sign of consistency in recent trading, persistently extending despite a still very cloudy narrative.

Metals are unfolding some of their past session selloff, but nothing too convincing.

Around here, WTI retakes the crown for the most essential asset to look ahead of the US-Iran talks, finally forecasted by President to take place on Friday

FX is remaining very muted with the currency Market now much more patient ahead of the next phase of the War narrative.

The Swiss Franc has been getting obliterated today, so keep an eye on these flows for those looking for action (with the Aussie Dollar still extending).

Tomorrow welcomes an important PMI session (EU, UK, US), that Traders and economists will watch closely as the World still awaits a clearer situation in the Middle East

As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations, with the negotiations starting again tomorrow.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Bitcoin reaches $79,000 in daily trading and tests a breakout of its main October descending channel
• Profiting from the rebound and new inflows in tech, exploring if Crypto has enough momentum to keep bouncing
• Exploring a Technical Analysis and trading levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum

Only 13 days since our last Crypto in-depth analysis, Bitcoin has surged an additional $7,000, (10%!) and Ethereum has broken through several major resistance levels, back to $2,400.

While altcoins are slowly gathering momentum, the spotlight remains firmly on the largest, highest-cap cryptocurrencies, with the rest still struggling to catch up as Investors still aim to pick up the highest quality names in case the narrative shifted again for the worst.

Nevertheless, the total crypto market cap is extending gains at levels similar to last Friday, clearly dominating the February lows – A very positive sign but this move will need further traction to avoid forming a short-term double top.

Extending beyond $2.65T will be key for the next phase of the rebound.

The coming days will present a particularly key test with the well-anticipated peace talks; In the event of a tumble in negotiations, Participants will be watching closely to see if crypto truly behaves as the safe haven its proponents claim, or if it remains just another risk asset.

So far, cryptocurrencies have maintained a strong correlation with the Nasdaq.

However, while the tech index has reclaimed its all-time highs, Bitcoin is now testing a major breakout at $79,000 as it challenges the upper boundary of its main October descending channel.

The big question now is whether cryptos will decouple from equities in the event of a stock market downturn—a factor that could determine if Bitcoin and its peers are truly poised to return to record highs.

Profiting from renewed tech sector inflows, the priorly dormant Crypto markets are exploring whether there is enough momentum to sustain this bounce.

Let's dive right into a technical analysis and key trading levels for both Bitcoin and Ethereum to spot if a clear breakout in indeed into play from here.

Read More:

• Markets steady with ceasefire talks in the balance, Warsh confirmation hearing
• A new era for the Fed? Looking back on Kevin Warsh's US Senate hearing & Market reactions
• Nasdaq breaks a new record after Ceasefire extension – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook

Bitcoin is now clearly extending above its $75,000 long-term pivot, a quintessential level of action for the Bulls to dominate the next phase and an even better run as traders finally broke out of the October bear channel.

For buyers to continue the run, with the RSI momentum coming closer to overbought, they will have to at least break above the $80,000 level – They do have the intermediate momentum in hand however.

Failing to break the level could however provide a decent opportunity for profit-takers to stall the move.

Levels of interest for BTC trading:

Support Levels:

• $75,000 Key long-term Pivot (acting as resistance)
• $70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot (50 and 200-4H MA)
• $60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support (recent double bottom)
• $59,935 February Lows
• $52,000 to $58,000 Next support and 200-Week MA ($55,000 Mid-point)
• $40,000 Mid-2024 breakout support

Resistance Levels:

• $79,100 Daily Highs
• $80,000 to $83,000 mini-resistance
• $90,000 to $95,000 minor Resistance
• $98,000 to $100,000 Pivotal Resistance
• Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000

The rebound in Ethereum remains very consistent, having also officially broken out of its descending channel.

ETH bulls will have to breach the $2,450 highs reached last Friday to confirm a breakout, but overall are well in control of the action.

Entering the $2,500 pivotal resistance within the next week should maintain high odds of a continued breakout – With Momentum not close to overbought, ETH buyers still have space to push.

Shorter timeframes are hinting at a slowdown, so traders will have to be careful for the next phase.

Levels of interest for ETH trading:

Support Levels:

• 4H 50 and 200 MA $2,118
• Channel lows $2,000
• $1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)
• $1,744 February 6 lows
• $1,380 to $1,500 2025 Support
• 2025 Lows $1,384

Resistance Levels:

• March 4 Highs $2,201 (breaking!)
• $2,300 June War Key Pivot (bullish above)
• $2,500 to $2,700 June 2025 Key Support now Resistance (Channel Highs)
• $3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)
• $4,950 Current new All-time highs

The narrative is easing, but keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

In today's episode, Nick and Jonny discuss a relative calm in the markets as US-Iran ceasefire negotiations hang in the balance, as well as dissecting Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing and potential implications for US monetary policy.

Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks corrected yesterday from a reappearing angst regarding the Ceasefire and Kevin Warsh's hawkish hearing
• Donald Trump saved the day by announcing yet another short-term extension to the Ceasefire
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

US stock benchmarks experienced a sharp correction yesterday, dragged down by reappearing angst over a collapsing US-Iran ceasefire and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Senate hearing.

However, President Trump quickly swooped in to save the day, announcing yet another short-term extension to the fragile truce.

While Trump has yet to set an official timeline for this new ceasefire extension, recent reports suggest that high-stakes talks with the Iranian delegation are now possible by Friday.

This crucial geopolitical lifeline allowed investors to aggressively buy the dip and erase the pain from yesterday's selloff.

By doing so, buyers successfully voided the ominous double-top formation that was threatening the Nasdaq, sending the tech-heavy index skyrocketing back to fresh all-time highs – the S&P 500 is still threatened by its double-top however.

Technology continues to relentlessly lead the broader market.

The Nasdaq is currently outperforming all other global benchmarks as US bulls keep flexing their insatiable risk appetite.

This tech-lead rally is directly spilling over into the crypto space as well, with Bitcoin surging to new highs and closing in fast on the massive $80,000 milestone.

Expect volatility to remain elevated as markets eagerly await further confirmation regarding Friday's potential diplomatic meetings and traders will have to see proper developments to maintain the current optimism.

Let's dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• A temporary Ceasefire extension maintains a bullish action – North American Mid-Week Market Update
• Tesla (TSLA) Technical: Bearish reaction from 200-day MA with weak relative strength
• A new era for the Fed? Looking back on Kevin Warsh's US Senate hearing & Market reactions

The Stock Market is mostly green, but under some heavy sectorial inequality as investors still focus on local targeted plays, with a preference for value in the already high-cap Magnificent 7s, outperforming all other Stocks and helping to propel Nasdaq on top.

The DJIA is slowly creeping higher but still lacks some conviction.

Bulls will want to see an extension above 49,600 to confirm a test of 50,000.

However, as long at the action remains above the 2H 50-period MA, bulls remain in control.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Weekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 - 49,600 (testing)
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• 2H 50-period MA (49,300)
• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,200 (short-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600

Nasdaq is officially breaching some new all-time highs and running towards 27,000.

Momentum is stalling about 100 points to the psychological level with RSI reaching overbought conditions, so a newfound momentum will have to be found.

Still, the path of least resistance on the short-run is to the upside for the index.

• The situation turns more bearish short-term if sellers bring back the action below 26,580 (2H 50-period MA)

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Daily resistance 26,600 to 26,750
• New all-time highs 26,736
• Potential Resistance at 27,000

Support Levels

• 26,580 (2H 50-period MA)
• Prior ATH Pivot 26,200 to 26,300 (Short-term bearish below)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Intraday Support
• War Support 25,000 to 25,250
• 24,450 to 24,550 Key Support
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is attempting an extension to retest its all-time highs, but the momentum is not coinciding with a proper bullish price action.

The daily highs are at 7,138 and those will have to be surpassed in order to properly undo the Double top formation.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Daily highs 7,138
• New all-time resistance 7,150
• Next key potential resistance 7,200

Support Levels

• 7,100 psychological level and 2H 50-period MA
• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• December ATH Mini support 6,945 to 6,975
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,680 to 6,700 Key Support
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global Markets
• Markets exploded to their all-time highs in recent action but are now facing major geopolitical hurdles in coming days
• While a temporary extension of the Ceasefire helped sentiment, traders are cautious about the next deadline

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.

This week in trading has already been a rollercoaster.

While Stock Markets themselves did not react much, sentiment went back and forth, but traders now seem more and more unfazed by rumors and only react to larger-scale news.

The most important theme, as always since the end of February, is the Middle East conflict, which has now completed its second week of truce.

While the narrative got very passive-aggressive, particularly on a very divided Iranian side, Wall Street kept its optimism and remains completely hypnotized by President Trump's persistent attempt for a deal.

Stock Benchmarks have officially broken all-time highs in 3 consecutive sessions last week.

We are now past the 1-year anniversary of Liberation Day, and the stock markets are up about 50% since then.

This is close to 5 years of growth in a bit more than 365 days, but this has clearly not been an easy path towards that. But Equity Bulls are hungry and seemingly undefeated.

Dips are bought, negative news is followed up by even more positive news, and nothing really ever happens.

With Donald Trump in power, the stock markets are in good hands, and they know they can rely on a few TACO's to remain full.

The most recent one happened yesterday, as bombs and no Ceasefire extension were promised, but the President announced one about 4 hours before the deadline.

Iran just announced that it would send a delegation only if it serves Iran's best interests. From what it seems, internal political turmoil in the Islamic regime still points to contentious looks on peace talks. In any case, a clear answer will have to be seen.

This is a best case scenario for Markets and geopolitics, but both the Dollar and WTI Crude haven't shown as much progress – After falling below $85 last Friday, more realistic traders realized that Hormuz was still in a deadlock and pushed the commodity back higher, now established around $90.

Iran just attacked a third tanker crossing the Strait of Hormuz under US Blockade, and this only shows that both sides are still far from permissive.

While Oil is moving on its own geopolitical dynamics, the US Dollar might have caught its own bid after the upcoming Senate hearing for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.

The hearing triggered a notable market pullback as he signaled structural shifts for the Federal Reserve.

Rejecting recent policy complacency, Warsh advocated dropping forward guidance, heavily reducing the balance sheet, and establishing a new inflation framework. While aggressively asserting Fed independence, he notably dodged tough questions from Senator Warren regarding potential disagreements with the President and his biases.

In terms of pure economic data, the only two interesting reports this week have been the Canadian CPI, which came in at a measly 2.4% (but a +0.9% m/m increase), and the Bank of Canada's rate decision, which left rates unchanged.

On the other hand, the US just delivered a banger Retail sales Report (up 1.7% m/m), which only continues the series of rebounding American data.

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

Read More:

• A new era for the Fed? Looking back on Kevin Warsh's US Senate hearing & Market reactions
• Breaking News: UK inflation hits 3-month high as energy & food pressures mount
• Tesla (TSLA) Technical: Bearish reaction from 200-day MA with weak relative strength
• Metals in focus with Ceasefire uncertainty – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlook

While Global Stock Indexes have all rebounded, the US clearly dominates the picture and particularly Nasdaq, up a staggering 6.50% to some remarkable all-time highs.

The S&P 500, also heavy influenced by a rebound in tech is doing its own piece of work, up 4.55% since last Monday.

The Dollar continues to consolidate above the 98.00 key level, a zone that points to further uncertainty in the FX Market (compared to quite innocent Stock Markets).

As explored in our previous in-depth Analysis (which I would advise you to check out to learn more), the fact that the USD has stopped correcting is not an optimistic sign for what's to come.

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot
• 99.40 to 99.50 Resistance
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs
• War Highs 100.544 (Double Top)

Support Levels

• 98.30 4H 50-period MA
• 98.00 Major Support
• Support 97.40 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00

The US Dollar hasn't properly bounced against FX majors and remains close to the bottom of the performance board.

From what it looks, the path to more downside is not guaranteed, but at the same time, a proper war resolution could help sellers to retake control.

In terms of pure technicals though, upside seems more probable – The risk is binary and war headlines will decide the fate of the US Dollar.

The CAD is officially bouncing back, up against most of its FX peers as the dust settles on Crude Oil corrections.

In any case, Canadian data has now been stabilizing and commodity orders are piling up with Middle East turmoil.

USD/CAD is still holding its bear channel but the action is now stalling at the 1.3630 - 1.3660 support as traders await for further FX developments.

• Breaking above 1.36750 hints at a retest of the 4H 50-period MA (1.37260)
• If not, expect the bear channel to hold.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD Trading

Resistance Levels

• 1.3750 Momentum Pivot
• 1.38 mini-Resistance +/- 150 pip
• 1.3850 Resistance
• 1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance

Support Levels

• 1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support (testing)
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support
• 1.35 Key Psychological Support

The North American calendar is actually quite full, with many key releases including University of Michigan data, Canadian Retail Sales, and the preparation for next week's Bank of Canada and Fed Rate Decisions.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• UK inflation climbed to 3.3% in March 2026
• The inflation surge, linked to geopolitical tensions, reinforces the Bank of England's necessity to maintain a restrictive policy stance
• Second round inflation effects on food and services may only be felt in the months ahead
• The GBP/USD pair has transitioned into a constructive recovery phase after breaking a descending channel

Most Read: Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: Is the ‘AI powerhouse’ narrative enough to offset waning auto demand?

The UK’s inflationary landscape saw a fresh uptick in March 2026, with the annual rate climbing to 3.3%. This print comes after two months of stability at 3%, and while the move was largely anticipated by markets, it marks the highest reading we’ve seen in three months.

From a technical and fundamental standpoint, the primary catalyst remains the volatility in the energy sector. Geopolitical tensions, specifically the ongoing conflict with Iran, continue to ripple through the supply chain. Transport costs surged by 4.7% the fastest pace of growth since late 2022, with motor fuels jumping 4.9%. For consumers at the pump, this translated to a painful 8.6p per litre increase in petrol and a staggering 17.6p rise for diesel.

Key Data Highlights:

• Housing & Household Services: Rose to 4.3% (up from 4.2%), underpinned by a massive 95.3% surge in domestic heating oil, a level of acceleration not seen since September 2022.
• Food & Beverages: Continued their upward trajectory, hitting 3.7% vs. the previous 3.3%.
• Services: Remained sticky at 4.5%, reflecting broader inflationary pressures in the domestic economy.
• The Outlier: Clothing prices provided a rare bit of relief, falling by 0.8%, the sharpest decline for the sector since March 2021.

On a month-on-month basis, the CPI increased by 0.7%, signaling that the "inflation storm" may not have fully passed just yet.

While the current data reveals a lot it does not show second round effects of the war in the Middle East on inflation. The impact on food and services may only start to show up in the coming months.

For the Bank of England, these figures likely confirm that a restrictive policy stance remains necessary. The surge in energy and food costs offsets the cooling we’ve seen in discretionary items like clothing.

From a trading perspective, keep a close eye on the GBP/USD and FTSE 100, persistent inflation coupled with geopolitical risk often leads to intraday consolidation as markets weigh the likelihood of "higher for longer" rates against slowing growth momentum.

As I’ve noted in previous outlooks, the path to the 2% target remains fraught with external shocks. Until we see a meaningful de-escalation in the Middle East, energy-led volatility will likely remain the dominant theme for the UK economy like many of its peers.

Markets seemed to shrug off today's data with GBP/USD remaining largely flat after the release.

The daily chart for GBP/USD highlights a significant structural shift as we move through April 2026. Following a breakout from a dominant descending channel (dark navy lines) earlier this month, the pair has transitioned from a bearish regime into a constructive recovery phase.

Key Technical Highlights:

Moving Average Reclaim: Price action remains comfortably above the 100-day SMA (blue) at 1.3455 and the 200-day SMA (black) at 1.3413. This "support sandwich" serves as a foundational floor for the current uptrend.

The 1.3500 Pivot: GBP/USD is currently consolidating around the 1.3500 psychological level. Bulls must maintain daily closes above this handle to sustain momentum toward the next major resistance at 1.3584.

Momentum Indicators: The Daily RSI is trending healthily at 57.9, suggesting ample "white space" for further gains before reaching overbought territory.

Outlook: A decisive break above 1.3584 opens the door for a run toward 1.3700, while a slip below 1.3400 would neutralize the current bullish bias..

GBP/USD Daily Chart, April 22, 2026

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Underperformance despite market rally: Tesla (TSLA) has lagged the broader “Magnificent 7” rebound post US–Iran ceasefire, down ~4% versus strong gains in peers, and remains deeply negative year-to-date (-14.1%), signaling weak relative strength.
• Bearish technical structure intact: Price action shows rejection at the 200-day moving average and hints of a developing “Double Top,” reinforcing a medium-term bearish bias below 417.40, with downside risk toward 337–288 if 363.80 breaks.
• Weak momentum and relative strength: Indicators confirm bearish conditions, declining relative strength vs S&P 500, RSI rejection at resistance, and fading upside momentum, suggesting continued underperformance unless a decisive break above 417.40 occurs.

Tesla, the first US mega-cap stock (the Magnificent 7 group), will report its Q1 2026 earnings results after the close of today’s (Wednesday, 22 Apr 2026) US trading session.

The consensus forecast anticipates a slight increase in earnings growth, from $ 0.27 to $0.35 earnings per share (EPS) in Q1, representing a 30% rise over the same quarter a year ago.

Read more: Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: Is the ‘AI powerhouse’ narrative enough to offset waning auto demand?

Since the ceasefire of the US-Iran war on 8 April 2026, the bullish animal spirits have reemerged in the US stock market, as the Magnificent 7 group of mega-cap stocks rallied, taking reference from the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 to Tuesday, 21 April 2026, led by Amazon (+19%), Nvidia (+12.8%), and Microsoft (+8%).

In contrast, Tesla underperformed, with a loss of 4%, and it also underperformed year-to-date (as of April 21, 2026), with a double-digit loss of 14.1% (see Fig. 1 & Fig. 2).

Bearish bias below 417.40 key medium-term pivotal resistance. A break below 363.80 intermediate support opens the scope for further potential weakness to expose the medium-term supports at 337.25/328.20 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of prior up move from 7 April 2025 low to 22 December 2025 high) and 300.05/288.80 (also the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of prior up move from 7 April 2025 low to 22 December 2025 high) (see Fig. 3).

On the flip side, a clearance with a daily close above 417.40 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further recovery towards 437.40/450.20 follow by a potential retest at its current all-time high of 498.83.

• The price actions of TSLA since 18 December 2024 high of 488.54 has started to form an impending major “Double Top” bearish reversal configuration.
• The recent 21% rebound from its 7 April 2026 low has stalled and shaped a bearish reaction right after a retest on the key 200-day moving average.
• The daily volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of Tesla against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund has trended lower below its zero line since 26 January 2026, which suggests the ongoing medium-term underperformance of TSLA against the SPY remains intact.
• The daily RSI momentum indicator of TSLA has just staged a bearish reaction from its descending resistance at the 60 level, which suggests the lack of upside momentum.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 21

Stock Markets faced a brutal dual-threat reality-check today, as shifting monetary policy and collapsing geopolitical diplomacy combined to trigger a violent late-session selloff.

The trading session was already under heavy pressure following incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing.

Warsh delivered a resolute but mixed-feelings message, emphasizing the need for a reform of Fed processes while hypocritically defending the central bank's absolute independence (but not answering some critical answers on the issue).

By signalling a definitive end to the era of elevated balanced sheets Warsh forced equity bulls onto the defensive early in the day and sparked a notable intraday pullback.

However, the real fundamental damage arrived just before the closing bell.

With the critical April 22 ceasefire deadline looming at Midnight Pakistan time, reports suddenly hit the wire that the high-stakes US-Iran diplomatic negotiations scheduled in Islamabad had been abruptly canceled.

The Iranian side were apparently reluctant to save the deal – Nevertheless, President Trump just announced a Ceasefire extension. Talk about a bipolar end to the session!

Stocks crashed into the late session as the euphoric peace trade—which had just driven US Markets to all-time highs—burnt its feathers.

Algorithms and institutional traders scrambled to de-risk, dragging major indices to new lows at the close, while Crude Oil prices did the exact opposite.

But as per usual, the US President saved the day by announcing another Ceasefire extension, helping Futures to rebound (right after the Market close however, a classic play from the Administration).

Things are not expected to become much clearer for the time being, so Traders will have to remain on edge until a proper path to diplomacy gets reached.

Read More:

• A new era for the Fed? Looking back on Kevin Warsh's US Senate hearing & Market reactions
• Fed's Warsh and Ceasefire-end triggers Market Double tops – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook
• The Dollar is forecasting tougher times ahead – EUR/USD, AUD/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overview

The Market close heatmap could be quite misleading as Trump just TACO'd again right after the close – So while the performance looks quite negative, a rebound could potentially erase some of the late session drops.

The price action in Stocks is still quite mixed, so any new all-time highs in the immediate timeframe would be unrealistic.

Consumer earnings continue in tomorrow's session, so traders will be able to get a clearer picture of the narrative and projections for upcoming quarters.

Metals and European Stocks are feeling the heat, as they quite more realistically priced the uncertainty looming with the US-Iran Ceasefire.

A concrete timeline for the ceasefire extension is to be provided, and for the rest, we will see tomorrow as this has been a quite unexpected turn in narrative.

The US Dollar slowly grinded at the top of the FX board, but Trump's latest TACO just reversed the move higher.

Except for the Kiwi Dollar, jumping from the recent beat in NZ inflation, the rest of FX action was quite dull.

The upcoming session will be huge for the GBP (with the UK continuing their relentless data releases this week) and the ECB (and European assets, particularly with the Ceasefire in a volatile deadlock).

As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations, with the negotiations starting again tomorrow.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Today welcomed one of the final steps for Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Chairman for the Federal Reserve – A process that initially was supposed to occur on May 15th.

However, the Trump Administration decided to spice things up with a Powell investigation that sent yet another wave of chaos in February.

But this is relatively small detail, but one that would annoy the President even more as the investigation would prevent Kevin Warsh's validation to pursue (check out the piece linked above to learn more).

The highly anticipated Senate confirmation hearing for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh took center stage this morning, and Wall Street is now frowning.

Stepping into the spotlight amid a backdrop of high geopolitical volatility, Warsh delivered a mixed address that instantly sent ripples across asset classes and triggered a decent market pullback.

At the core of his testimony was a bold declaration regarding monetary policy: Warsh explicitly stated his desire to reform the Federal Reserve, with notable calls for a review on Forward Guidance (that he wants to drop entirely) and a new inflation framework.

Rejecting the policy complacency of recent years (showing his disagreement for post-COVID policy), he signaled a structural shift in how the central bank will measure and react to price stability – Warsh's toughest point of view is on the Fed's Balance Sheet, that he wants to see reduced heavily over coming years.

This would definitely not be as positive for Stock Markets.

For markets that have grown accustomed to a highly accommodating Fed, this was a decent reality check – Wall Street really loves Jerome Powell and his exit will be surely regretted by some.

Some tough questions, particularly from Senator Warren, on his swinging hawkishness, blasted the Fed Chair nominee – and he definitely dodged the answers.

Nevertheless, Warsh aggressively reinstated the narrative of strong Federal Reserve independence – but this one will have to be proven as he never really answered on disagreeing with the President and other similar questions.

Add to the lingering uncertainty with the Middle East, and the market reaction got quite decisive.

Equities took a decent hit as the reality of a more rigid Fed policy set in.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the intraday pullback, reflecting deep institutional caution as investors rapidly reassess the broader US economic outlook and a potential return to Middle East tensions.

With the critical April 22 US-Iran ceasefire deadline looming just hours away, Warsh's unyielding stance on inflation and institutional independence has thrown yet another puzzle for Participants to play around with.

Vice-President J.D Vance has been reported to travel to Pakistan tomorrow morning (providing a de-facto extension of the Ceasefire, if he really is departing).

What is sure, is that the easy money era has officially been put on notice.

Let's dive into the major movers of this busy, and quite risk-averse session

Discover:

• Fed's Warsh and Ceasefire-end triggers Market Double tops – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook
• The Dollar is forecasting tougher times ahead – EUR/USD, AUD/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overview
• Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: Is the ‘AI powerhouse’ narrative enough to offset waning auto demand?

Financial Markets are swinging more hawkish with the latest developments, but reactions have remained relatively restrained

WTI (US) Oil prices have grinded higher in recent hours but remain below the key $93 pivot.

The action in WTI remains stuck between $87 and $95 and should stay like that until Participants learn more on the Iran issue.

Metals are somehow quite offered in today's session, with drops of close to 3% around the board.

Looking at reactions in the US Dollar and other Markets, it could just be profit-taking on the dip-buying at key technical levels, supplemented by some angst regarding the Balance Sheet reducing.

Gold found pressure at $4,900 which got exacerbated by the 4H 200-period MA.

Don't forget to check out our recent XAU/USD and XAG/USD to spot trading levels:

• Metals in focus with Ceasefire uncertainty – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlook

The US Dollar caught a decent bounce during the Kevin Warsh hearing – hope that some of you explored our USD Analysis on time to catch the first leg.

Now retesting the 4H 50-period MA, the next move will be quite interesting (decent point for long entries on the USD, but watch out for volatile catalysts ahead).

Stock Markets are in the red today but the reactions are for now still broadly contained.

Be careful tomorrow as things should be rocky, particularly if the second round of US-Iran talks fail to materialize.

Don't forget to check out our Stock Market intraday analysis to learn more on fundamentals and technicals for the coming period ahead.

Safe Trades and keep track of the evolution of the conflict ahead!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks are now correcting after holding strong in the morning session with To-be Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaking
• The US-Iran Ceasefire is at the center stage with Iran's confirmation for talks still awaited
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

U.S. stock benchmarks attempted a run above recent highs in the morning, even without any clearer picture on the US-Iran issue.

This is largely the most influential factor in Markets this morning's action, with the US reconfirming that it will travel to Islamabad, Pakistan, for the second round of talks only if Iran confirms, but Iran has been dodging the question for quite some time now.

From what the Iranians said, they do not want to participate in talks as long as the US Blockade on Hormuz continues, but this is the pressure point that the Trump Administration is applying to chokehold the Islamic regime into a deal.

Odds for an April 30 peace deal dropped from 60% last Friday to below 30%, pressuring Stock Markets.

Major US Indexes are now forming intraday double-tops, which could prove uncomfortable for current heavily bullish pricing.

All-time highs in current periods are hard to justify amid current economic pressures (even if the US winning on the mid-term macroeconomic side from the spike in American Crude oil orders).

Add to this the ongoing Senate interview of Kevin Warsh, who is being heavily questioned about his independence (and also doing his fair share of navigating the questions), and the markets are facing a pressure point.

The nominee is strongly advocating reforming the inflation outlook and the Fed Balance Sheet, with a focus primarily on Monetary Policy.

His comments on the balance sheet have weighed on rebounding equity prices and supported the US Dollar's continued rebound.

The Clock to Wednesday, the end of the ceasefire, is still ticking, and this is starting to weigh on previously undefeated Stock Market bulls.

Below, we analyze intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• The Dollar is forecasting tougher times ahead – EUR/USD, AUD/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overview
• To be Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaking at the US Senate
• Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: Is the ‘AI powerhouse’ narrative enough to offset waning auto demand?

The Stock Market is now falling with a broad struggle, not focused on a particular sector except for the Health Sector taking a general hit and a few big names like Apple and Nvidia pulling back.

The DJIA somehow extended above its weekend gap despite the uncertainty, but the action isn't anymore pretty because of this, quite the contrary, having failed to retest the 50,000 level.

After breaching the Friday top, the Dow marked a fakeout and turned lower aggressively, with 1H RSI momentum quickly turning bearish – forming a double-top looking price action.

The 50-Hour MA is getting tested, any extension below 49,260 would break the upward channel and hint at further downside ahead, notably re-entering the Pivot Zone.

Any breach of 49,000 would see bearish acceleration to 48,500.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Weekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 & 50-Hour MA
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,200 (short-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600
• War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280

Nasdaq has now formed a clear double top at previous session highs and is now falling below its 50-hour MA (26,630).

If bearish pressures continue, the action could easily lead to a re-test of the 26,200 October Record levels.

Any extension below points to a larger correction (25,500 seems like a decent intraday target if selling accelerates). Flows will heavily depend on Iran.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 50-Hour MA 26,630
• Daily resistance 26,600 to 26,750
• New all-time highs 26,736
• Potential Resistance at 27,000

Support Levels

• Prior ATH Pivot 26,200 to 26,300 (Short-term bearish below)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Intraday Support
• War Support 25,000 to 25,250
• 24,450 to 24,550 Key Support
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is also trading below its 50-hour MA which caught up fast to the current action (7,115) and sellers are now pushing the index below 7,100.

Coming close to the lower bound of the bull-channel, look for a break particularly if Iran fails to confirm their participation in talks ahead of the Ceasefire.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Week-end gap 7,100 resistance
• 7,115 50-Hour MA
• New all-time resistance 7,150
• Next key potential resistance 7,200

Support Levels

• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• December ATH Mini support 6,945 to 6,975
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,680 to 6,700 Key Support
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Federal Reserve Chairman-elect Kevin Warsh is speaking at the Senate.

It is a final step for Kevin Warsh to be confirmed at the head of the Federal Reserve. This is a quite essential meeting ahead of the coming four-years to spot what view the Fed Chair will have.

You can get access to the live event right here.

Lots of questions on Fed Independence, surely the most essential question to ask.

We will be producing a quick update to this post in the afternoon to review what was said and what was missed.

US Stock Markets update coming up promptly.

The US Dollar is stuck in a 100 pip range – Check out our in-depth analysis of the currency right here:

Discover: The Dollar is forecasting tougher times ahead – EUR/USD, AUD/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overview

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar has corrected quite severely since the announcement of the two-week ceasefire, and not without good cause.

The infamous Petrodollar trade has gripped financial markets on all sides since the beginning of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, particularly amid the rise in Crude Oil to 4-year highs.

The USD has historically held a decent correlation with Black Gold, but the latest wave of panic during the conflict re-strengthened the bonds between the two financial assets, rowing the same boat.

With Markets ever so ecstatic about a US-Iran deal and the fact that the war is not extending much longer than originally priced, this led to an explosion to all-time highs in Stock Markets, a swift drop in Oil prices, and, consequently, a tumble in the US Dollar.

This came shortly after a daily double top in the global reserve currency, which was nice enough to mark the bearish pattern indicating a turn in how Markets viewed the war.

But after a 2.50% correction, the US Dollar has seemingly done correcting. So if the Dollar forecasted the truce, could it now be forecasting tougher times ahead?

The issue with the narrative is that the Ceasefire is ending tomorrow, and a US delegation, including Vice President J.D. Vance, is struggling to coordinate its departure amid mixed messaging from the Iranian side.

As the US President said, he does not want to extend the ceasefire, and without a deal, we're going straight back to the bombs. So FX Markets could be feeling the turn.

The US Dollar is leading all other FX currencies, but the Kiwi Dollar is supported by a NZ CPI beat and the repricing for a hike at the upcoming meeting.

While the changes are small, it is now the second consecutive day of a Greenback rebound, so traders will have to pay close attention.

We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD to assess the current state of the Market and where to look next.

Discover:

• Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: Is the ‘AI powerhouse’ narrative enough to offset waning auto demand?
• Chart alert: Bullish flag formation in Copper (XCU/USD) as 2nd US-Iran peace talks loom
• Metals in focus with Ceasefire uncertainty – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlook

The US Dollar has now attempted, and failed to break the 98.00 Major support for the third time during the morning action.

This levels hold right in the middle of its larger timeframe range which implies a general lack of conviction from bears that the Dollar should already erase its War gains.

Now testing its 4H 50-period MA, a key technical indicator for the prior coming, FX markets will be facing a test:

• Breaking above it (98.40) would hint at a bullish rebound ahead, which confirms above 98.70 (if the War picks up again)
• On the other hand, rejecting 98.00 continues the bearish path for the US Dollar

Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:

Resistance Levels

• 98.335 4H 50-period MA (bullish above)
• 98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot
• 99.40 to 99.50 Resistance
• Initial War Spike 99.68
• Weekly range highs 100.00
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone
• War Highs 100.544

Support Levels

• 98.00 2025 Support (testing – bearish below)
• Support 97.40 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support

AUD/USD is taking somewhat of a lead, bouncing from the test of its upward channel bottom in recent action.

A break above 0.71860 (March Highs) would continue the bullish path ahead and if the channel was to hold (implying peace), a rally to 0.7250 could occur.

Nevertheless, the rebound attempt seems for now quite shy, hence the importance of the March high level. Failing to reject it could lead to a break of the bull channel.

Levels of interest for AUD/USD:

Resistance Levels

• 2023 Highs from 0.7140 to 0.7160 Resistance (broken)
• 0.71867 March highs
• June 2022 Extremes 0.72 to 0.7230
• Channel highs 0.7250

Support Levels

• 0.7150 Channel lows
• 4H 50-period MA - 0.71280
• 0.6970 - 0.70 Major Pivot
• 0.69 to 0.6935 Early Feb Support
• 0.68340 War lows

EUR/USD is showing sharply similar signs as the Dollar Index (naturally, in reverse), testing its 4H 50-period MA this time as support.

Bears did take the upper hand at the beginning of the week, rejecting sharply the test of the 1.1850 resistance and now trading close to 1,000 pips below.

Breaking below the MA hints at further downside, with confirmation below 1.17200.

Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:

Resistance Levels

• Resistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)
• 1.1830 June 2025 highs
• 1.1850 to 1.1860 Recent Test
• Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 Zone

Support Levels

• 1.1760 4H 50-period MA
• 1.17 to 1.1720 March Pivot
• Rebound highs 1.17200 (bearish below)
• Major Pivot 1.16250 to 1.16350
• 1.1540 to 1.1570 War Support
• 1.1475 to 1.15 November Support
• War lows 1.1410

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on Ceasefire news!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
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• The central narrative has shifted from Tesla as a pure EV manufacturer to an AI and robotics powerhouse
• Q1 expectations are tempered due to missed delivery estimates, making automotive gross margins, expected to stay above 17-18% the "make or break" metric.
• A major focus is the company's pivot toward AI, with CapEx projected to exceed $20 billion in 2026 to support three pillars: Full Self-Driving (FSD), the Cybercab/Robotaxi network, and Optimus/Dojo.
• Stock momentum depends on providing a concrete roadmap for Robotaxi revenue and AI monetization plans.

Most Read: Chart alert: Bullish flag formation in Copper (XCU/USD) as 2nd US-Iran peace talks loom

Tesla (TSLA) is set to report its first-quarter earnings for 2026 on Wednesday, April 22, after the closing bell. The narrative surrounding Tesla has shifted dramatically over the last year, moving away from a pure-play electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer toward an ambitious AI and robotics powerhouse.

However, as the "Magnificent Seven" member prepares to open its books, the market remains divided: Is Tesla a high-growth tech platform deserving of its premium valuation, or a capital-intensive car company grappling with cooling demand?

Expectations for Q1 are tempered following a delivery report that missed consensus estimates. Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter, a 6.3% year-over-year increase, but roughly 7,600 units shy of the 365,645 expected by the Street.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): Consensus estimates are centered around $0.36 to $0.37. Some analysts, such as those at Refinitiv, are more bearish, projecting a "Smart Estimate" as low as $0.30.
• Revenue: Wall Street is looking for approximately $21.9 billion to $22.7 billion. While this represents year-over-year growth of roughly 13%, it is a sequential decline from Q4 2025.
• Margins: This remains the "make or break" metric. With ongoing price adjustments and increased competition from Chinese rivals like BYD, investors will be laser-focused on whether automotive gross margins can stay above the psychological 17-18% floor.

The central theme of this earnings call will likely be the pivot toward AI. Elon Musk has signaled that Tesla’s future valuation is inextricably linked to autonomy.

Market participants should look for updates on three specific AI pillars:

• Full Self-Driving (FSD) v14 & Global Expansion: Following recent regulatory approvals for FSD (Supervised) in Europe, any commentary on take-rates and the rollout of the "Self-Driving App" will be vital. Tesla is increasingly leaning on software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenue to offset hardware margin pressure.
• The Cybercab & Robotaxi Network: With Tesla sending Cybercab prototypes from Giga Texas to various testing locations, the timeline for a commercial robotaxi launch in cities like Dallas or Houston will be a major stock catalyst.
• Optimus & Dojo: CapEx for 2026 is projected to exceed $20 billion, a massive jump from $8.5 billion in 2025. Much of this is earmarked for AI compute and the Optimus humanoid robot program. Investors will want to know if this spending is yielding tangible efficiency gains or if it’s a "black hole" for cash flow in the near term.

• Inventory Levels: Tesla produced roughly 50,000 more cars than it delivered in Q1. This "supply-demand gap" is a growing concern, suggesting that even with price cuts, the global EV market remains saturated.
• Energy Storage: While vehicle deliveries lagged, Tesla’s energy division has historically been a bright spot. However, reports indicate energy deployments may have dropped sequentially in Q1; a rebound here is necessary to support the "diversified energy company" thesis.
• The "Hey Grok" Integration: The 2026 Spring Update introduced "Hey Grok" voice commands, integrating Musk's xAI into the Tesla ecosystem. This highlights the deepening ties between Tesla and Musk’s other ventures, a point of both excitement and corporate governance debate.

Tesla enters this earnings print with a technical setup that suggests high volatility. The stock has been trading in a broad range, sensitive to every update regarding FSD safety and production scale.

The Bull Case: If Tesla manages to beat the lowered EPS bar of $0.30-$0.36 and Musk provides a concrete, near-term roadmap for Robotaxi revenue, we could see a rally toward the December 2025 highs around $490-$500 resistance levels. A focus on "software-like" margins would reassure growth investors.

The Bear Case: Should margins continue to slide toward 15% without a clear recovery plan for the core auto business, the stock could test recent support levels. Bears will argue that the $20 billion CapEx plan is too aggressive given the cooling demand for EVs in Europe and North America.

Key support levels that could come into focus rest around the $355-$360 mark and lower than that at around the $336 mark (YTD Lows).

Tesla TSLA Daily Chart, April 21, 2026

Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings will be less about the cars delivered and more about the vision sold. In a market that is increasingly rewarding AI execution, Tesla needs to prove that its massive infrastructure spend is more than just a hedge against a slowing car market.

For the stock to regain its momentum, the "AI Powerhouse" narrative needs to be backed by improving software margins and a credible path to autonomy. As always with Tesla, expect the unexpected when the clock hits 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
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• Risk-on rebound fuels copper rally: Copper surged ~17% from its March low, driven by improved sentiment after the US–Iran ceasefire, recovering most war-related losses and stabilizing near pre-conflict levels.
• Fundamentals are still supportive: Global manufacturing activity remains in expansion (PMI diffusion ~72%), providing a solid demand backdrop for copper, with upcoming flash PMI data as a key near-term catalyst.
• Bullish flag signals potential breakout: A consolidation pattern suggests continuation higher if 6.0680 breaks, targeting 6.1755–6.2910; failure below 5.8790 risks a deeper pullback toward moving average support zones.

Copper (XCU/USD) has also benefited from a revival of risk-on appetite in the past seven trading sessions due to the temporary two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran since 8 April 2026 to negate the risk of stagflation driven by fears of a prolonged global oil supply disruption.

Copper has rallied by 17% from the 23 March 2026 low of 5.1889 to print a two-month high of 6.1037 on 15 April 2026 as market participants look forward to a peace deal resolution between the US and Iran, erasing its early loss of 14% from the onset of the US-Iran war. Based on the 27 February 2026 pre-war baseline till Monday, 20 Apr 2026, LME spot copper has traded almost unchanged at -0.75% (see Fig. 1).

In the past three days, a game of poker has emerged as both sides are trying to build a “stronger hand” ahead of the second round of peace talks to take place in Pakistan, either on Tuesday or Wednesday, as stated by US President Trump via a media interview.

The US has continued to enact a naval blockade on Iranian-registered oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has continued to force a closure in the strait to prevent international vessels from transporting and obtaining oil supplies in the GCC region.

The longer-term price movement of copper is highly sensitive to manufacturing activities, as it is a vital component in the global manufacturing supply chains and industrial usage. Higher manufacturing activities tend to translate to a higher demand for copper, in turn, creating a positive feedback loop into the price of copper.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data compiled by S&P Global can be used as a leading indicator to gauge manufacturing activities.

Despite the rising risk of stagflation in the past six weeks since the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February 2026, on the aggregate, global manufacturing activities were still growing at a modest pace in March 2026.

The PMI Diffusion Index measures the proportion of countries whose manufacturing PMI is above or equal to 50 (an indication of expansion in activities), where it stood at 72.3% in March 2026, just down slightly from 74.5% in April 2026 (see Fig. 2).

Hence, there are still more than 50% of global economies’ manufacturing sectors in expansion modes, in turn, providing long-term bullish support for copper prices.

On Thursday, 23 April 2026, S&P Global will release flash PMI data for a slew of developed economies (Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US). Therefore, a continuation of the expansion pace seen in these economies’ manufacturing PMIs is likely to maintain the ongoing short-term bullish trend of copper (XCU/USD).

Let's now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of copper (XCU/USD) and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective.

Copper (XCU/USD) has shaped a minor corrective pull-back of 2.65% from its recent two-month high of 6.1037 printed on 15 April 2026.

Watch the 5.8790 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance of 6.0680 (upper boundary of the bullish flag) triggers the start of another potential bullish impulsive up move sequence (see Fig. 3).

The next intermediate resistances stand at 6.1755 and 6.2465/6.2910 (also a Fibonacci extension).

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 5.8790 invalidates the bullish tone for another round of minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support zone of 5.7357/5.6545 (also the 20-day and 50-day moving averages).

• The recent corrective pull-back from the 15 April 2026 high of 6.1037 has taken the form of a bullish consolidation chart pattern called “bullish flag,” with its upper boundary acting as near-term resistance at 6.0680.
• The price action of copper (XCU/USD) has continued oscillating within a minor ascending channel in place since the 23 March 2026 low and still has room to move towards the upper boundary of the channel at around 6.1755/6.2910.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to stage a rebound close to its support at the 32 level.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Hawkish RBNZ supports NZD upside: Stronger-than-expected inflation (3.1%) increases the likelihood of rate hikes, with bond yield spreads signalling a more hawkish stance that underpins NZD/USD.
• Bullish reversal taking shape: NZD/USD has rebounded from its 200-day moving average, breaking back above the 50-day MA, suggesting the recent 3-day decline may have ended.
• Key levels for continuation: Holding above 0.5846 keeps the bullish bias intact, with upside toward 0.5965–0.6030, while a break below this level risks a pullback toward 0.5800 and lower.

Annual inflation in New Zealand came in at 3.1% year-on-year in Q1 2026, unchanged from Q4 2026’s 1.5 year high but exceeded the consensus forecast of 2.9%.

The latest inflation print in New Zealand has continued to surpass the RBNZ (New Zealand central bank) long-term inflation target of 1%-3%, therefore increasing the odds of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike by the RBNZ in July’s monetary policy meeting to bring the official cash policy rate higher to 2.50%. So far, the RBNZ has kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for two consecutive meetings since February 2026.

The movement of the 2-year sovereign government bond yields is highly sensitive to changes in monetary policy guidance. Hence, the directional movement of the 2-year yield spread between the two countries’ sovereign bonds is likely to influence the foreign exchange rate of these two countries.

By looking at the current 2-year yield spread between New Zealand sovereign bonds and US Treasuries from a technical analysis perspective, it has traced out a major bullish reversal “Inverse Head & Shoulders” configuration since 9 January 2025 and traded above its 200-day moving average, which is acting as a key support at -0.45% (see Fig. 1).

Therefore, breaking above the neckline resistance of the “Inverse Head & Shoulders” at –0.09% is likely to see a further rally in the current 2-year yield spread between New Zealand sovereign bonds and US Treasuries (US Treasuries’ yield premium shrinkage), in turn, putting potential upside pressure on the NZD/USD rate.

Let us now examine the short-term outlook (1-3 days) of NZD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.

The price actions of the NZD/USD have pushed back up above its 50-day moving average after a retest of its 200-day moving average on Monday, 20 April 2026.

Watch the 0.5880/0.5846 key short-term pivotal support on the NZD/USD. A clearance above 0.5929 opens scope for a further potential short-term rally for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.5965 and 0.6015/0.6030 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).

However, failure to hold and an hourly close below 0.5846 invalidates the bullish scenario for a minor corrective pull-back to retest the 20-day moving average that is acting as the next intermediate support at 0.5800. A break below 0.5800 may trigger a deeper slide to expose 0.5725 next.

• Price actions of NZD/USD have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel in place since the 7 April 2026 low of 0.5690 and still have room to maneuver towards the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel (see Fig. 2).
• NZD/USD has just shaped a 3-day (17 April, 21 April, and 22 April) bullish reversal candlestick condition on the retest of its key 200-day moving average, indicating the potential end of the minor corrective decline sequence from 15 April 2026 to 20 April 2026 (see Fig. 3).
• The daily RSI momentum indicator has shaped a higher low above the 50 level and has not reached its overbought region (above the 70 level) (see Fig. 3).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 20

Markets kicked off the week with a decidedly mixed outlook – the highly anticipated second round of diplomatic talks failed to materialize over the weekend, leaving traders empty-handed as the geopolitical timeline continues to face frustrating delays.

The rhetoric between Washington and Tehran is turning increasingly passive-aggressive.

President Trump drew a hard line in the sand today, stating definitively that the current ceasefire will end this Wednesday and that the Strait of Hormuz will remain firmly closed until a comprehensive deal is officially signed.

With Iranian officials simultaneously signaling deep doubts about the negotiation framework and threatening to walk away, energy markets reacted violently.

Both WTI and Brent crude oil gapped higher on the open, ultimately closing the session up a strong 5.80% as the fear of a renewed conflict quickly repriced the war uncertainty.

Unsurprisingly, the sudden spike in energy costs forced stock indexes and most risk assets to gap lower at the opening bell. However, the buy the dip algorithms are still stubbornly active, helping the session to withstand the fundamental pressure.

Yet, the complete failure to extend the rally any higher than those Friday closes confirms the deep confusion currently paralyzing the market. Wall Street is essentially holding its breath, completely hostage to the looming April 22 ceasefire expiration.

In other major news, the macroeconomic spotlight shifts back to monetary policy tomorrow. Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to appear before the Senate for his confirmation hearing at 10:00 AM.

Warsh is reportedly planning to aggressively reinstate the narrative of strong Fed independence. This could act as a massive catalyst, so keep a very close eye on the US Dollar, Treasuries, and related currency pairs as his testimony unfolds—volatility is guaranteed.

Read More:

• Metals in focus with Ceasefire uncertainty – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlook
• ECB waits for signals from the economy. War with Iran raises risks to inflation and growth in the euro area
• Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Bitcoin shrugs off sluggishness and targets recent highs. Is $80000 a possibility?

The Stock Market picture rotated throughout the day, without indexes moving the slightest – Healthcare and Energy took a downside turn while a few names in Tech and Non-energy durables helped to maintain sentiment relatively up-lifted.

Stock Markets remain broadly unchanged on the session (after selling off in the morning).

Having now turned the page on Financials, the earning season turns slowly towards consumer products, helping to see how Retail Sales are holding in beginning 2026 – Expectations will be elevated when looking at the current Stock Market picture, so traders will have to be careful.

The higher-tier earnings reports will be coming up later in the week.

As can be seen, despite the gigantic rally in WTI at the open, Global Stock Markets remained surprisingly strong and are remaining surprisingly resilient to any bad news.

The buy-the-rumors on the peace process continues; Investors will have to make sure that they won't sell on any type of news (they will require a very positive deal to continue the extension higher from there after such a strong rally).

The US Dollar seems to have struggled once again despite the gap higher in WTI, but looking at the Dollar Index, FX is stuck in quite a range as of late (Particularly USD and European pairs).

The Aussie Dollar is on the other hand doing its own work, consistently outperforming its major peers in recent weeks – Check out our recent analysis to learn more.

The next 24 hours will be filled with high-tier, but sporadic releases.

This evening begins with New Zealand inflation which will prove to be a decisive factor for the pricing of potential rate hikes with the RBNZ. Any clear inflation beat will price in hikes and should help the Kiwi Dollar for the time being.

Watch out for the reverse scenario also!

The UK will send out their own Employment numbers in the overnight, so GBP traders will have to be careful with their positioning and orders (2:00 A.M. Release).

The US session will also be quite full, with Retail Sales at 8:30, Kevin Warsh's appearance at the Senate at 10:00 A.M. and Ceasefire deal news.

As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations, with the negotiations starting again tomorrow.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Silver, Gold and other metals are struggling to pick-up momentum despite lower Oil prices
• The Ceasefire is set to expire soon, and both sides seem more reluctant to extend it without a deal
• Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD

After rebounding sporadically over the past two weeks, Gold and other precious commodities have failed to match the broadly positive, euphoric mood currently driving equity markets.

While they initially profited from the first corrective wave in the US Dollar, capital flows have aggressively pivoted toward risk-on assets.

Traditional safe havens, which arguably lost their clear directional sight during the height of the war's panic, are now heavily questioning their role in this new environment—and investors are doing exactly the same.

The geopolitical clock is ticking. The temporary US-Iran ceasefire is officially set to expire by Wednesday, April 22, and both sides appear increasingly reluctant to extend the truce without a finalized, signed agreement in place.

The US Administration is eager for a peaceful resolution but the President communicated that he is also ready to use strength.

Despite Crude Oil dropping back to the $90 handle, metals are struggling to pick up any meaningful bullish momentum while in this tense waiting room.

Should the ceasefire unexpectedly collapse without a diplomatic resolution, precious metals could face a violent, binary reaction.

If WTI Oil manages to remain contained below the critical $100 mark, Gold could absolutely explode higher on a sudden rush of risk-off haven flows, capitalizing on its recent technical correction, and a lack of worsening inflation expectations.

Conversely, more risk-sensitive, industrial-leaning metals like Silver and Copper would likely struggle to catch a sustained bid, facing heavy downward pressure precisely because they are hovering near their current relative highs.

Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts.

Read More:

• Back at all-time highs, Investors take a break – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook
• Markets Today: Oil surges 6% as sentiment sours, Nikkei rises. US-Iran developments in focus
• USD/JPY forms a major Head & Shoulders pattern as Oil crumbles – FX Analysis

Gold has rallied a quite impressive 17% after reaching 4-month lows on March 22, but has failed to breach the quintessential $4,900 resistance.

For bulls to retake the intermediate momentum advantage, they will have to generate a proper push above the psychological level – that could potentially happen if sentiment sours further.

In the immediate outlook however, the 4H 200-period MA is putting bearish pressure, hence if nothing fundamental changes, sellers would have the short-term advantage.

A break below the $4,781 50 MA confirms a turn lower and would push back towards $4,650.

Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $4,800 4H 200-period MA
• $4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)
• $5,100 Pivotal Resistance
• $5,400 mini-resistance

Support Levels:

• $4,781 50-MA short-term support
• Daily Momentum Pivot $4,675 (bearish below)
• Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400
• Main Channel Lows Support $4,100

Silver has also rallied strongly from its March 22 lows but is now struggling to extend above the $83 resistance.

Still evolving within a bull channel, traders will have to track its upper ($84.50) and lower bounds ($77) to play breakouts.

If the situation remains confusing as it currently is, expect the channel to consolidate into a range between $77 and $83.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Major Resistance $83 to $84.50 (Mid-term bullish above)
• Key Range Resistance $90 to $92
• $96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)
• Current Record $121.67

Support Levels:

• Key Momentum Pivot $75 to $79
• 4H 50 and 200-period MAs ($77)
• December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66
• $61.10 Past Session lows
• $50 to $55 October Resistance now Major Support
• Silver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81

Safe Trades and a successful week!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The ECB says it is still too early to fully assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict on the euro area, so policymakers should closely watch incoming data and avoid rushing into decisions.
• The war creates a classic supply shock: it raises energy and commodity prices, increases inflation risks, and at the same time threatens already weak euro area growth, especially through potential disruptions such as a Strait of Hormuz blockade.
• The ECB’s main concern is whether higher energy costs will trigger longer-lasting “second-round effects” across the economy; if inflation expectations rise and price pressures become persistent, the central bank may have to respond.

The European Central Bank is still unable to clearly assess how strong the full impact of the war with Iran will be on the euro area economy. As Álvaro Santos Pereira, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, emphasizes, the conflict is too recent to draw firm conclusions, so for now the central bank should closely monitor incoming data and refrain from hasty reactions.

Too early for a full assessment of the conflict’s effects

According to Pereira, the current situation requires caution because this is a classic supply shock. Such shocks usually lead at the same time to weaker economic growth and higher inflation, putting the central bank in a particularly difficult position. On the one hand, energy and commodity prices are rising; on the other, economic activity is weakening. For the euro area, this means worsening conditions, although at this stage the negative impact of the conflict is not yet seen as dramatic.

A supply shock puts the ECB in a difficult position

Pereira notes that the euro area economy is currently somewhere between the ECB’s baseline scenario and the adverse scenario it had considered. Even before the current crisis, economic growth in the euro area had been running at around 1%, which in itself pointed to limited recovery momentum. In this situation, any additional external shock, especially one related to the energy market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, increases the risk of a further weakening in economic conditions.

The ECB is paying particularly close attention to developments surrounding the fighting in the Middle East and the potential consequences for Europe of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This channel could be of key importance for oil prices, transport costs, and more broadly for cost pressures in the economy. For the central bank, however, the most important issue will not be the temporary rise in prices itself, but the possibility of so-called second-round effects. This refers to a situation in which higher energy and commodity prices begin to spread into other sectors of the economy, pushing inflation higher in a more lasting way.

The biggest risk is entrenched inflationary pressure

In Pereira’s view, only clear signs that higher inflation is becoming entrenched, along with rising inflation expectations, should prompt the ECB to react. If such signals appear in the data, the central bank will have to respond. If, however, price pressure proves limited and temporary, it will be more appropriate to continue observing the situation and make decisions with great caution. This is particularly important at a time when less than two weeks remained before the ECB’s next interest-rate decision.

Europe needs not only caution, but also reforms

In the Governing Council member’s opinion, short-term caution in monetary policy should not obscure the broader picture. Pereira points out that for more lasting growth, Europe also needs structural measures, above all faster completion of the single market. Deeper economic integration could increase Europe’s resilience to external shocks and improve its long-term growth prospects.

For now, the ECB therefore remains in a mode of vigilant observation. The conflict with Iran is already worsening economic conditions in the euro area, but the scale of its impact has not yet been determined. The coming weeks and incoming data will show whether this is a temporary disruption or the start of stronger and more persistent inflationary pressure that would force the central bank to respond.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Bitcoin has reclaimed the $76000 handle and maintains a firmly bullish technical structure
• The $75000 psychological level is acting as a consistent pivot, suggesting sustained institutional interest.
• If buying pressure persists, the primary short-term goal is a run toward the psychological $80000 level, with the ultimate bullish hurdle being $82133.

Most Read: Markets Today: Oil surges 6% as sentiment sours, Nikkei rises. US-Iran developments in focus

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has displayed impressive resilience during the Monday session, shaking off early-morning sluggishness to reclaim the $76000 handle. After a brief period of consolidation, the premier cryptocurrency looks poised to challenge its recent highs, underpinned by a technical structure that continues to favor the "buy the dip" crowd.

The daily timeframe remains the cornerstone of the current bullish thesis. Following the impulsive "V-shaped" recovery throughout early April, Bitcoin has successfully turned previous resistance into rock-solid support.

Key observations on the Daily:

• The SMA Support Sandwich: Bitcoin is currently trading comfortably above its 100-day MA (yellow) at $74145 and its 50-day MA (blue) at $70577.

As long as the pair remains above this "support sandwich," the broader bias remains firmly bullish.

• The $75000 Pivot: The daily candles are showing a consistent ability to close above the $75000 psychological level, suggesting that institutional interest is picking up at these elevated levels.
• RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is trending at 61, indicating that while momentum is positive, we are still a long way from the "danger zone" of 70+, leaving significant room for a run toward the $82133 hurdle.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, April 20, 2026

Zooming into the H4 chart, we can see a textbook example of healthy trend development. After hitting a local top near $78197, the pair underwent an orderly retracement that found a floor exactly at the 50-period MA (blue), currently at $74632.

The H4 structure has now printed a significant higher low. With the RSI bouncing off its midpoint (58) after a "PIVOT" low signal, the indicators suggest that the corrective phase is over, and the next impulsive leg may be beginning to take shape.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 20, 2026

The hourly chart provides the most immediate optimism, with Bitcoin slicing back above its 50, 100, and 200-period MAs in a single concerted move.

The Bullish Scenario

For the bulls to maintain this momentum into the Asian and European sessions, we need to see a sustained hold above the $75700 area (the H1 100-MA). A clean break above $76800 would likely trigger a liquidation of short positions, clearing the path for a retest of $78197. If buying pressure persists, a psychological run toward $80000 becomes the primary target.

The Bearish Scenario

The bears need a rejection at current levels and a break back below the $75000 pivot to regain any short-term control. Failure to hold the $74555 level (H1 200-MA) would signal a more prolonged consolidation, likely drawing the price back toward the structural support at $71673.

However, given the current "BULL" labels on the RSI, the bears seem to be on the back foot for now.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: $78197, $80000, $82133
• Support: $75000, $74145 (Daily 100-MA), $71673

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 20, 2026

Bitcoin is effectively "re-loading" for its next major move. The confluence of support between $74,000 and $75,000 has proven to be a formidable base for the bulls. WIll it serve as a base for Bitcoin to finally push beyond the coveted $80000 mark?

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks extended to some fresh new record on Friday, but the euphoria is coming to a stall
• The US-Iran Ceasefire is coming to an end on April 22, so Investors are looking for further developments from here
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

US Stock Benchmarks extended to fresh record highs on Friday, but the wall of euphoria is officially hitting a stall as a massive geopolitical deadline looms.

The temporary US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire this Wednesday, April 22, and the market is growing increasingly anxious. Investors are desperately looking for further developments to justify current Market pricing, especially following recent reports that President Trump will not extend the ceasefire—and won't open the Strait of Hormuz—unless a finalized deal is signed.

The diplomatic timeline has been frustratingly erratic.

High-stakes negotiations were initially supposed to take place last Thursday before being pushed to the weekend, and now finally into this week.

JD Vance apparently still hasn't left to Islamabad to kick off the new rounds of talks, and Wall Street is now done trading on rumors only. Investors are now demanding concrete advancements before they fund the next leg of this peace trade.

Odds for a Peace deal are remaining stuck below 40%, failing to extend above in recent days, and the turn from the White House rhetoric isn't helping much.

This underlying caution is already showing up in the charts. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recently reached stunning new records, the Dow Jones—often a much more stable guide to broad Market appetite—has failed to gather the strength needed to push to all-time highs.

This divergence is a glaring signal: smart money is still highly skeptical that the global economy will seamlessly revert to its pre-war normal. That skepticism is heavily reinforced in the energy sector, where WTI Crude remains uncomfortably sticky around the $90 handle.

With the clock ticking down to Wednesday and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz hanging in the balance, let's look at intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Markets Today: Oil surges 6% as sentiment sours, Nikkei rises. US-Iran developments in focus
• Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 gap-down stalled above 26,288/142 key support, bulls are still in control
• A real peace process or a fantasy? – Markets Weekly Outlook

The Market is once again sending mixed signals, with Mega Caps taking a hit, but the rest remaining quite resilient on the session.

The first week of earnings has been very decent, so that maintains a decent bid in Stocks, but the small changes on the session can only confirm the hesitancy from recent geopolitics.

The DJIA gapped back to 49,000 at the start of the week, limited in its progress by the rebound in WTI Crude and the lack of diplomatic progress.

Now testing its gap fill at 49,560, a key test is showing up ahead:

• Extending above the 49,760 Friday highs hints at a continuation above
• On the other hand, a rejection of the gap fill would hint at a break of the ceasefire bull channel.
  • The 4H 50-period MA would be a decent test in such an occurrence.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Weekend Gap fill 49,460 (testing)
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,200 (short-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600
• War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280

Nasdaq has now extended well above its prior all-time highs in a 17% firework – But the bullish momentum is coming to a stall.

The RSI Momentum is largely diverging, hinting at a stalling in the price action until Markets learn more on the Fundamental issue.

• The base case is for a retest of the 26,200 prior all-time highs, a decent place of entry for optimists
• Breaking 26,000 would hint at a larger pull-back (~25,500) in the event where momentum fails to persist

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Daily resistance 26,600 to 26,750
• New all-time highs 26,736
• Potential Resistance at 27,000

Support Levels

• Prior ATH Pivot 26,200 to 26,300 (Short-term bearish below)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Intraday Support
• War Support 25,000 to 25,250
• 24,450 to 24,550 Key Support
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is holding even better standards compared to its peers, also retesting its week-end gap fill (~7,110).

• Rejecting it would, like Nasdaq, point to a test of its prior all-time highs (~7,000 - 7,020)
• Rebounding from there should easily lead to new all-time highs (barring a worse fundamental outlook) as this also coincides with a test of the upward Channel

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Week-end gap 7,100 resistance (testing)
• New all-time resistance 7,150
• Next key potential resistance 7,200

Support Levels

• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• December ATH Mini support 6,945 to 6,975
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,680 to 6,700 Key Support
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing the market latest, including updates from the Persian Gulf as tensions flare, and a look ahead to this week's trading, including a testimony from Kevin Warsh on Tuesday.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalated over the weekend, causing market sentiment to dive
• The US dollar reclaimed its footing, hitting a one-week high as the optimistic "peace deal" narrative crumbled
• The immediate market direction hinges on diplomatic efforts ahead of Tuesday’s ceasefire deadline
• The overall outlook anticipates the DXY to maintain a defensive posture

Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?

Market sentiment took a dive this morning after weekend tensions between Iran and the US reared its head once more.

The ceasefire remains fragile and will be tested at the start of the week after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely halted. President Donald Trump struck a cautiously optimistic tone, suggesting that Iran has committed to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.

Despite the "completely open" announcement made on Friday, market sentiment was quickly dampened by reports of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeting tankers within 24 hours of the statement. This immediate escalation serves as a grim reminder that while political agreements provide a temporary reprieve, the operational risks in the region remain elevated.

The impact from these developments saw oil prices rise more than 6% in early Monday trade. GOld on the other hand opened around $40 down from its Friday close before dropping to a daily low around the 4737 mark. The precious metal ground its way back toward the $4800/oz mark which seems to be the immediate hurdle to cross and gain acceptance above for a move higher.

All in all risk assets are lower, one of the few exceptions being Japan's Nikkei share average which rose on the day. The benchmark Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.60% to close at 58,824.89 compared with its record intraday level of 59,688.10 touched on Thursday. The broader Topix climbed 0.43% to 3,777.02.

The US dollar reclaimed its footing on Monday, hitting a one-week high against a basket of major peers as the optimistic "peace deal" narrative began to crumble.

The catalyst for the greenback's resurgence stems from Tehran’s refusal to participate in a second round of negotiations, casting significant doubt on the longevity of the two-week ceasefire set to expire this Tuesday.

The shift in sentiment was felt across the G10 space, with high-beta and risk-sensitive currencies bearing the brunt of the move:

Euro (EUR/USD): The single currency slipped 0.05% to $1.1754, having earlier touched a weekly low of $1.1729.

Sterling (GBP/USD): Cable followed suit, trading 0.15% lower at $1.3497 as the broader "risk-off" mood took hold.

Aussie (AUD/USD): The most sensitive to shifts in global stability, the Australian dollar dropped 0.3% to $0.7145.

Currency Power Balance

European equities began the week on a negative note, with the STOXX 50 down 1.3% and the STOXX 600 falling 0.9%.

Travel and leisure stocks fell sharply, with Ryanair tumbling 3.5% while energy outperformed, including Shell (2.5%).

US stock index futures inched lower while the CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge", gained after falling for the last eight sessions and was last up 2.25 points at 19.73, a one-week high.

Read More:

• Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 gap-down stalled above 26,288/142 key support, bulls are still in control
• A real peace process or a fantasy? – Markets Weekly Outlook
• Euro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?

The immediate market direction hinges on whether the diplomatic efforts in Pakistan yield a breakthrough or if the "tough talk" escalates ahead of tomorrow’s ceasefire deadline. The key barometer for progress will be the physical presence of Iranian negotiators. While the current "market mood music" remains anxious, there is a subtle undercurrent of hope for a resolution that could spark a relief rally in risk assets.

Tuesday’s Triple Threat: Warsh, Ceasefires, and Retail Sales Tomorrow stands as the pivotal session for the week, defined by three key catalysts:

1. The Ceasefire Deadline: Expiration without a deal could reignite a sharp flight to safety.
2. Kevin Warsh’s Confirmation: His Senate hearing for the Fed Chair role will be scrutinized. Expect a "split personality" approach: dovish on interest rates but hawkish on shrinking the Fed's balance sheet.
3. US Retail Sales (March): Expected to remain resilient despite the energy tax on consumers, reinforcing the "higher for longer" narrative.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently attempting to claw back recent losses, trading near the 98.24 handle after a sharp decline earlier this month. On the H4 chart, the index has found strong structural support around the 97.70 level, where a series of "BULL" signals and RSI divergence suggest a near-term bottom may be in place.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: Immediate upside pressure faces a stern test at 98.73 (red horizontal). A break above this could see the index rally toward the 99.21 (100-SMA) and 99.35 (200-SMA) confluence zone.
• Support: The 97.70 area remains the critical floor. A daily close below this pivot would invalidate the current recovery and open the door for a move toward the 97.00 psychological mark.

With the RSI (14) rising from oversold territory and currently at 48.65, momentum is shifting back to the bulls. However, until the DXY reclaims its moving averages, the broader bias remains neutral to bearish.

USD Index Four-Hour Chart, April 20, 2026

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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• Bullish trend intact despite volatility: The Nasdaq 100 has led the post-ceasefire rally, breaking to new highs, and remains in a bullish structure even after a gap-down driven by renewed US–Iran tensions.
• Strong market breadth supports upside: A sharp improvement in breadth, more stocks trading above key moving averages, confirms broad participation and reinforces the sustainability of the uptrend.
• Key support holding keeps bulls in control: The index is stabilising above the critical 26,288/26,142 support zone; holding this level maintains upside potential toward 26,700–27,380, while a break below risks a deeper corrective pullback.

Risk assets, particularly global equities, staged a sharp bullish reversal on 8 February 2026 following the US–Iran temporary ceasefire, which paused the six-week conflict and raised hopes of a broader peace deal. The high-beta, tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 led the rally, reversing an earlier 8% loss to post a 6.9% gain (from the 27 February 2026 pre-war baseline to 17 April 2026) and breaking above its previous all-time high set on 29 October 2025 (see Fig. 1).

Over the past five trading sessions, market breadth within the Nasdaq 100 has strengthened markedly, reinforcing the ongoing bullish trend.

The share of component stocks trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages has surged from 11% and 15% on 27 March 2026 to 80% and 62%, respectively, as of 17 April 2026 (see Fig. 2).

Similarly, the proportion of stocks above the key 200-day moving average has risen to 50% from 40% over the same period.

Let's now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective.

The index gapped down by 1.1% at the open of the Asian session on Monday, 20 April 2026, as renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz saw Tehran target vessels and reimpose controls, underscoring a highly fluid US–Iran conflict.

In response, the US Navy engaged and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, casting fresh doubt over the ceasefire set to expire on Tuesday night (US time).

While US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead another round of peace talks, Iranian state media reports no plans for participation. Notably, the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index managed to stabilise around its former all-time high of 26,288 at this time of writing.

The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel in place from the 7 April 2026 low of 23,808.

Watch the 26,288/26,142 key short-term pivotal support to maintain its minor bullish acceleration phase for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 26,776, 27,140, and 27,380 (see Fig. 3).

On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below 26,142 invalidates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline to retest the next intermediate support at 25,900/800. Below 25,800 opens scope for a deeper slide towards the 25,215/25,110 medium-term pivotal support area.

• Its price actions have traded above 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages since 8 April 2026. In addition, the 20-day moving average is now shaping a potential bullish crossover condition above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to exhibit a bullish momentum condition above its pull-back support at the 44 level.
• Elliot Wave Theory suggests the recent rally from the 2 April 2026 low of 23,511 is likely considered as a minor bullish impulsive wave three structure with its potential terminal zone at 27,140/27,380 (Fibonacci extension cluster from and the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.
• Markets conclude a very volatile week, with hopes for peace going back and forth and sentiment losing its head
• Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.

This week has been nothing short of historic.

Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have charged to fresh all-time highs, completely leaving the geopolitical panic behind as traders aggressively price in a proper peace agreement – The move has bulldozed through any type of resistances and prior records, in a move that has left many traders scratching their head.

Only the Dow Jones is looking to catch up to its younger peers, but is already on pace to do so – That is, if the current pricing withstands the weekend.

While the past two weeks of US-Iran negotiations have generated their fair share of chaotic headlines, the diplomatic process unfolding in Pakistan appears genuinely serious, with both sides making significant, market-moving concessions.

The absolute catalyst for the week was this morning's market-rocking news regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Bolstered by President Trump's remarks that he expects a finalized deal in a day or two, the geopolitical risk premium imploded.

Oil prices collapsed nearly 10% since yesterday, completely erasing their previous rally to trade comfortably right below the $90 handle.

Notably, clear signs of insider trading emerged in the Crude market just before the announcement—a continuation of the wild market craziness that has defined Trump’s second term, but certainly not a first.

Moving forward, physical traders will be closely monitoring the Strait to see if actual tanker flows resume.

The euphoria isn't limited to traditional equities paying out big peace dividends. Cryptocurrencies caught a massive bid, with Bitcoin exploding back to life and rallying to sit just below the $80,000 (~$78,000) mark as the weekend approaches, also boosting other crypto assets.

On the macroeconomic front, the reality of the recent commodity shock is setting in. Both US CPI and PPI inflation reports rose strongly, although optimists will console as they missed their most extreme upside expectations.

However, this energy-driven jump could merely be the beginning of a much more significant inflationary wave hitting the economy over the coming months.

This week will provide fresh insights on inflation in other countries including Japan, Canada and the UK.

Now, participants are bracing for a pivotal week.

The current ceasefire officially expires on April 22 – Without a formal extension or a signed peace deal, this historic progress could vanish in a flash, throwing markets back into extreme volatility.

An actual deal will be mandatory to sustain the rally.

As you can see, when Oil suffers, everybody dances. Even with the commodity gapping higher at the beginning of the week, Stock Markets have continued to explode higher and shortly after, everything followed.

WTI Crude is down 10% since the beginning of the week, and off 17% from its weekly opening gap.

The most risky assets have naturally outperformed the recovery, with Cryptos (ETH and Altcoins) on top, Silver dominating the Metals market and Nasdaq dominating global Stock benchmarks.

Discover:

• USD/JPY forms a major Head & Shoulders pattern as Oil crumbles – FX Analysis
• Chart alert: The laggard Dow Jones (DJIA) is in the process of a bullish catch-up above 47,895 key support
• Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) potential bullish breakout above $4,900

Traders will have to get ready for a roller-coaster week, with macroeconomic data and major peace headlines on schedule.

Japan is under heavy pressure regarding their future monetary policy, and with the Inflation report for March incoming, where the first effects of Energy price hikes will be felt, the moment could be decisive.

The release is expected on Thursday evening (7:30 P.M.) – A large beat could confirm a rate hike at the end-May meeting if economic conditions don't worsen by then.

Bank of Japan representatives did refuse to comment on the issue during the IMF Meeting.

GBP traders will have a lot on their plate in the coming week, with a three-streak combo:

UK Employment, Inflation and Retail Sales, providing insights on the state of the economy and price rises as participants prepare for an economic shock.

Euro traders will have to pay close attention to the ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey and German PMIs that could also reshape forward looking pricing for the Old Continent.

The US takes a relative break from economic data, only releasing Retail sales on Tuesday and leaves space for continued price discovery.

Keep in mind that past week movements will be contingent on a sustainable peace deal with Iran, with the talks expected throughout the weekend.

CAD traders will also have to reprice chances of future hikes with Canadian Inflation opening the North American week on Monday.

A 2.5% consensus is announced, but energy price rises could definitely point to a beat on such low expectations.

The Hormuz reopening news was icing on a very bullish cake to conclude this extremely positive week.

The heaviest Beta assets did what they did best and kept exploding higher across the Asset map – Cryptos and Silver, finish on top, both up around 3% on average.

US Benchmarks kept extending further to their newfound peaks, with the Dow Jones catching up and concluding the session on top.

On the other side, Crude Oil took a 10% beating after the news, but somewhat bounced as the session went by – Expect a lot of movement in the commodity in the coming week.

Safe Trades and an enjoyable weekend!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

We join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing the latest developments in financial markets.

Today, we discuss a sudden fall in crude oil prices, US equities challenging new highs, and look ahead to next week's trading, including key releases from Canada, the US, the UK & New Zealand.

Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/JPY was once again the main target for US Dollar bulls amid the ongoing major US-Iran War, which began on February 27 (with a positive twist in the past week and a half).

Energy commodity prices have more than doubled since the imposition of ceaseless supply restrictions from Iran's capture of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI and Brent Crude prices have at some point risen by more than 100% and are remaining about 35% higher than they were just at the beginning of February.

A significant portion of Asian crude oil imports depends on this region. As a result, prices for both physical crude and refined products have soared.

This was seen as a particular strain on the Eastern continent, and the clearest evidence is in the change in Jet Fuel prices.

For such a populous region, particularly dependent on fossil fuels for electricity production and manufacturing, this has proven quite damaging.

Luckily for Japan, it has held the largest proven strategic oil reserves in the world, but this hasn't helped Forex hawks severely punish the JPY against the dominant US Dollar.

Victim of its own confused Monetary Policy, with largely expected rate hikes progressively fading out due to slower inflation reports and contradicting policymakers, the Land of the Rising Sun was the target of a large FX repricing.

Luckily for the Yen, the conflict is now priced to end soon.

The Strait of Hormuz was announced reopened this morning, with statements from both the US and Iran, and the Administration pushing for it to move forward with the negotiations.

USD/JPY has now entered a corrective phase, which could extend if the conflict were to end.

With a Head and Shoulders pattern forming, it will be important to see whether this move indeed has legs, pointing to longer-term bearish positioning in the pair.

Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis for the Gopher – more commonly named, USD/JPY.

Read More:

• Chart alert: The laggard Dow Jones (DJIA) is in the process of a bullish catch-up above 47,895 key support
• The US Dollar is stalls as the world awaits Ceasefire news – DXY Outlook
• Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) potential bullish breakout above $4,900

USD/JPY is now entering a potentially significant corrective phase, pushing towards a break of the range established since March 10.

Testing and wicking at the 50-Day Moving Average (157.60), mean-reversion buying has faded the morning move, but the Daily RSI, now falling in bearish territory, is pointing to a move that could have just begun.

Let's take a closer look.

The action shows a bit more details on the morning volatile action, with buyers re-entering at the precise 157.533 lows reached on March 19.

With the RSI quickly falling, the action is now close to oversold which could prompt interesting mean-reversion to offer pullback entry opportunities.

A break of the morning lows could extend to the 155.00 Mini-Support, target of the Head & Shoulders measured move.

Resistance levels

• 158.50 to 159.50 2026 Major Resistance (pullback interest)
• 4H 200-period MA 158.920
• April 2024 160.00 to 160.40 Major Resistance
• June Mini resistance 160.70 to 161.00

Support levels

• 157.533 lows reached on March 19 (bearish below)
• December highs Major Pivot 157.40 to 157.85
• 156.485 4H 200-period MA
• 156.00 Pivotal Support
• 155.00 Mini-Support

Safe Trades and wishing you a pleasant week-end ahead!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• DJIA lagging but poised for catch-up: While other major US indices have posted gains post ceasefire, the Dow has underperformed but is now showing signs of a bullish catch-up above key support at 47,895.
• Macro tailwind improving for financials: Stabilisation and potential re-steepening of the US yield curve could boost bank profitability, supporting the Dow given its heavy financial sector weighting.
• Bullish technical structure forming: The DJIA is in a minor uptrend within an ascending channel; a break above 48,850 may extend gains toward 49,715/49,835, while failure risks a pullback toward 47,460.

Since the start of the ongoing recovery seen in the risk assets, such as global equities, last Wednesday, 8 February 2026, on the backdrop of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which put a pause to the seven-week war, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has lagged behind the other three major US stock indices with a current loss of 0.8% from pre-war baseline on 27 February 2026 to Thursday, 16 April 2026.

In contrast, gains were recorded in the S&P 500 (+2.4%), small caps Russell 2000 (+3.3%), and the top performer, the higher beta technology heavyweight, Nasdaq 100 (+5.5%) (see Fig. 1).

The Financials sector is the top sector in the DJIA, with a weightage of around 27%, and Goldman Sachs is the top price-weighted component stock in the DJIA with a weight of 11.4% as of Thursday, 17 April 2026.

The underperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been underpinned by bear flattening of the US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year), where the yield spread dropped by 11 basis points (bps) to hit an eight-month low of 0.48% on the week of 16 March 2026; such a shift typically signals tighter financial conditions, which can weigh on economic growth and pressure bank profitability.

In the past five trading sessions, stagflation risk arising from a prolonged period of global oil supply crunch has eased, in turn, reducing the odds of a hawkish monetary policy guidance from the US Federal Reserve.

Hence, the 4 weeks of bear flattening movement seen in the US Treasury yield curve have started to plateau as the yield spread has increased by 5 bps to 0.53% at the time of writing (see Fig. 2).

A bull re-steepening in the US Treasury yield curve is likely to improve the earnings prospects of banks, in turn, triggering a positive feedback loop into the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Let's now decipher the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective.

Watch the 47,895 key short-term pivotal support on the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average E-mini futures).

A clearance above the 48,850 near-term resistance increases the odds of the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 49,180/49,250 and 49,715/49,835 (see Fig. 3).

On the other hand, failure to hold at 48,850 with an hourly close below it negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline towards the next immediate supports at 47,460 and 46,970/46,710 (the area around the intersection of the 20-day and 200-day moving averages impending bullish crossover).

• Price actions started to oscillate within a minor ascending channel from the 30 March 2026 low and traded above all three moving averages (20-day, 50-day, and 200-day).
• The hourly RSI momentum index has managed to stage a rebound after a retest on its ascending support on Thursday, 16 April 2026, at the 43 level.
• Elliot Wave Theory suggests the recent rally from the 2 April 2026 low of 45,882 is likely considered as a minor bullish impulsive wave three structure with its potential terminal zone at 49,715/49,835 (1.00 Fibonacci extension from the 2 April 2026 low and the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel).

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