• Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.
• Markets are subject to significant repricing after the confirmation of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chairman and this theme should continue to price throughout the coming week
• A few inflation releases (Canada, UK) will continue to provide clarity into the Market situation
• Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.

Stock markets reached spectacular new highs just yesterday, heavily profiting from relentless artificial intelligence trends and a massive wave of record corporate earnings.

The S&P 500 aggressively breached the monumental 7,500 milestone, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average temporarily reclaimed the historic 50,000 mark as global risk appetite peaks.

Adding to this initial bullish momentum, the highly anticipated summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a highly constructive geopolitical tone.

The two leaders establish aligning views regarding the ongoing Middle East conflict and the general World order with the two superpowers needing to collaborate.

Investors are now looking ahead to the next encounter between the two leaders, with an official invitation extended for President Xi to visit Trump in the United States in mid-September.

However, while these diplomatic developments generate better hopes for a sustainable peace process, financial markets are already rapidly turning the page on this theme.

Despite the midweek ecstasy, a much more dominant macroeconomic theme is now aggressively gripping the markets and causing widespread bloodshed ahead of the weekend.

Following the official Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, risk assets are subject to a brutal, significant repricing.

Ruthless bearish flows wipe out recent equity, metals and Crypto gains as the US Dollar explodes higher at the direct expense of virtually all other asset classes.

Markets are hyper-focusing on the severe, long-term implications of a Warsh-led Federal Reserve. Institutional capital is actively preparing for a massive, systematic emptying of the central bank's balance sheet, which remains one of the new Chair's dearest ambitions.

You can see this in the shocking action in bond markets which swears to trigger cascading effects into the broader Market regime

This aggressive trajectory possesses the terrifying potential to severely impact the foundational liquidity system that has supported global markets since the post-Great Financial Crisis era.

As this historic recalibration drains speculative excess from the financial system, this structural liquidity shift is the exact theme that continues to heavily dictate price action heading into next week and coming months.

What could have been a dream-like week for major assets quickly turned out to be a dramatic rewinding which took out more than what it gave.

When Markets fear a drain in liquidity, it quickly brings back gigantic fears of a much more ruthless pre-GFC regime, where demand gets pushed and pulled by cyclical factors rather than the continuous support that it had seen in the past 17 years.

Stock Markets, Cryptos and Metals, which had started the week on a rocketship, quickly turned back the other direction with most assets now down on the week.

The only exceptions remain WTI Crude and the US Dollar.

Discover:

• The new Fed Chair's balance sheet erasure and Market bloodshed
• British bonds under pressure. Yields at their highest in years
• Crude Oil eases its overnight rally but what's next? – WTI Technical analysis

One of the key geopolitical event is the G7 Meeting which aims to provide more collaboration along members (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States).

And in terms of broader Markets, players will want to focus on the Kevin Warsh trade, bullish for the US Dollar and bearish on everything else.

Next week's APAC calendar brings heavy volatility across major economies.

China kicks off with high-impact Industrial Production forecasted at 5.9% and Retail Sales at 2.0%, before the PBoC holds interest rates at 3.0%.

Japan faces critical Q1 GDP data expecting a 1.7% annualized print, ahead of Thursday's National CPI.

Australia navigates the RBA Meeting Minutes and Wednesday's pivotal employment report, projecting a steady 4.3% unemployment rate.

Finally, New Zealand traders prepare for Thursday's Q1 Retail Sales data.

Get ready for a ton of action for the Old Continent.

In the UK, traders brace for Tuesday’s 4.9% unemployment rate and Wednesday’s critical CPI report, with headline inflation forecasted at 3.3%. Thursday’s UK Services PMI is expected at 52.7.

In Europe, focus shifts to PMIs, projecting contraction in Germany at 48.4 and the broader Eurozone at 48.8.

Friday caps off the week with German Q1 GDP growth anticipated at 0.3%.

And don't forget a high number of ECB and BoE speakers throughout the week.

Next week, North American markets face pivotal data as traders seek fresh direction. In Canada, Tuesday's crucial CPI report takes center stage, with previous core YoY inflation sitting at 2.5%, followed by Friday's retail sales forecasted at 0.6%.

Meanwhile, US markets will hyper-focus on Wednesday's critical FOMC Minutes for monetary policy clues.

The US narrative then shifts to economic health on Thursday, highlighted by preliminary Manufacturing PMIs (previously 54.5) and Services PMIs (previously 51.0).

Don't forget to keep a close eye on US Markets and Bonds, particularly with the end of week turmoil!

Safe Trades and keep an eye on US-Iran developments, along with the Warsh Trade!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• UK bond yields surged to multi-year highs as investors reacted nervously to the possibility of Andy Burnham eventually challenging Keir Starmer’s leadership.
• Markets fear that a potential Burnham-led government could pursue looser fiscal policy, higher public spending and greater borrowing.
• The sell-off reflects lingering sensitivity after the 2022 Liz Truss crisis, as well as global pressures from inflation, energy prices and geopolitical tensions.

The British debt market came under strong pressure after Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham gained the ability to run for a parliamentary seat. For investors, this is a signal that he could, in the future, open a path toward competing for the leadership of the Labour Party and, consequently, challenging Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The mere prospect of such a scenario was enough to trigger a nervous reaction in the bond market.

The yield on 30-year UK government bonds rose by as much as 20 basis points to 5.86%, reaching its highest level since 1998. The yield on 10-year bonds, meanwhile, climbed to 5.18%, a level not seen since 2008. Falling bond prices were accompanied by a weakening of the pound against the dollar, with the British currency heading for its worst week since 2024.

Investors fear higher spending

The source of concern is the belief that a potential Burnham government could pursue a more expansionary fiscal policy than Starmer’s current cabinet. Markets are primarily worried about higher public spending, a larger budget deficit, and increased debt issuance. This is particularly important at a time when the UK’s public debt-to-GDP ratio is currently at its highest level since the 1960s.

Investor unease has been reinforced by Burnham’s earlier comments. The Manchester mayor suggested that the UK is, in a sense, “in hock” to the bond markets, and also indicated that defence spending could be excluded from the existing fiscal rules. For the debt market, such statements sound like a signal of greater freedom to increase public borrowing.

The spectre of a return to the 2022 crisis

The investor reaction is so sharp also because the British market still remembers the 2022 crisis. At that time, unfunded spending proposals from Liz Truss’s government led to a severe sell-off in bonds and major financial turbulence. Since then, every suggestion of a departure from cautious budget policy has been punished especially quickly by the market in the UK.

Global factors are also adding to the situation. High energy prices, concerns about persistent inflation, and tensions linked to the war in the Middle East are increasing pressure on government bonds. As a result, investors have begun to change their expectations for the Bank of England. Instead of assuming interest-rate cuts, the market has started pricing in the possibility of rate hikes.

Politics is becoming a key risk for debt

The sell-off in British bonds shows that investors are paying increasingly close attention not only to macroeconomic data, but also to political signals. The rise in yields stems both from external factors, such as energy prices and inflation, and from growing uncertainty around the future direction of UK fiscal policy.

The most important question for the market today is whether a possible change in Labour Party leadership would mean a departure from the cautious approach to public finances represented by Starmer and Rachel Reeves. Until investors receive a clear answer, British bonds and pound sterling may remain vulnerable to sharp swings.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The morning session brings ruthless flows across all financial markets as participants actively price in absolute bloodshed ahead of the weekend.

Investors are facing a brutal reality check as the much-discussed Warsh trade moves into a significantly heavier and more destructive phase.

At the core of this widespread Market selloff is the aggressive repricing for the effective emptying of the Federal Reserve balance sheet.

Shrinking the portfolio of assets remains one of the new Fed Chair dearest ambitions, and the market is finally digesting the severe liquidity implications of this impending policy shift.

While the central bank did engage in quantitative tightening cycles in recent years, the sheer scale and aggressive trajectory currently repricing under this new mandate point to a structural liquidity drain unmatched in its intensity since the original massive expansion programs began during the 2008 financial crisis.

And the only asset profiting from this is the US Dollar – The Dollar Index is bouncing to levels not seen since late April.

The recent sharp rise in the US Dollar reflects the structural changes underway. As the central bank plans to gradually withdraw capital from the financial system, the dollar is gaining strongly while most other asset classes are losing value.

Explore our latest Dollar Index Analysis to learn more.

Stocks are falling across the board. The recent gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are reversing as tighter financial conditions put pressure on growth and tech stocks. The Dow Jones is also losing ground, with the broader stock market in a state of ceaseless anxiety since this morning.

The declines are not limited to stocks. Precious metals, which recently saw strong gains, are now falling as the stronger dollar removes much of their support. Cryptocurrencies are also dropping as speculation fades from the market. Bond yields are rising quickly as the market prepares to handle more debt without central bank support.

Traders are seeing a major shift in the markets. Risk assets are having trouble maintaining their high valuations as the central bank signals tighter monetary policy, making the market environment much more challenging.

Let's look around asset classes to get ready for what could be a heavy period in Markets.

Discover:

• Crude Oil eases its overnight rally but what's next? – WTI Technical analysis
• Asia open: Oil surges past $106, USD rose as Fed signals steady rates
• Trump-Xi summit 2026: Key expectations and what markets are watching

As explored in our past session's Stock Market analysis, Nasdaq was showing signs of weakness which translated into today's broader correction.

This could be the beginning of something much more significant, especially when looking at bond Markets seeing volatility unseen since the 2022 hike cycle.

Metals are getting swept downward, erasing most of their past week's rallies in the single session.

With bonds breaking lower like this, there will be dire consequences for the broader Market.

Is this the beginning of something much more consequential? It might just be.

Reactions to current levels in Bond Markets will be very important to watch – Look for much rougher Market conditions in the next week if this continues.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• WTI Oil kept rising throughout the week with a continuous status quo in the Middle East.
• While the Trump-Xi meeting is ongoing, the US-Iran situation is frozen, hence traders are preparing for the next phase of the trade
• Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil prices have been climbing this week as tensions in the Middle East show no signs of change.

Even though President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are meeting, the US-Iran situation remains unresolved and as a result, traders are getting impatient for the next phase in the Energy Commodity Market.

There are some positive signs for global stability as President Trump and President Xi Jinping seem to somewhat agree on common objective for a peace process.

President Trump says both the US and China believe Iran should not have a nuclear weapon, and that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is very important for China. Beijing agrees, saying there is no real reason for the conflict to continue.

These talks could have a big impact on Asian countries that rely on Gulf energy, and the results of this summit could change global markets in a major way.

Even with some hope from diplomacy, today’s market tells a different story.

The US Dollar is rising quickly, which is pushing down commodity prices and lowering global risk assets.

Crude Oil is also feeling this pressure and has dropped during the early Friday morning – But traders want to look forward and will have to consider what the status quo means for the Commodity.

Since supply problems in the Strait of Hormuz are not fixed and global inventories are low, oil prices are for now remaining underpinned ahead of the weekend.

Now, let's take a closer look at the technical analysis for WTI Crude to see if prices can remain above $100 for long.

Read More:

• Asia open: Oil surges past $106, USD rose as Fed signals steady rates
• Stock Markets update – Dow Jones at 50,000 & S&P 500 trades above 7,500 – Intraday Levels
• Trump-Xi summit 2026: Key expectations and what markets are watching

WTI led a strong move to the upside to test its $106 resistance (CFD) to retest early May levels.

The US Session brought with it some calm but the immediate action remains quite mixed, with the RSI stable in the bullish region – To learn more, we will have to look closer

WTI Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• $106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance
• $110 mini-resistance
• 2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)

Support Levels

• $98 to $100 Pivot
• Momentum Support $93 - $95
• $90 Psychological level and past session's lows
• $87 to $90 mini-Support
• $82 Friday 17 lows
• 2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80

Crude is still following a short-term upward trendline within a bull channel, giving the upper hand to the bulls for immediate action.

• Continuation traders will want to see a continued rebound from here to extend back towards the top of the channel at 107.60 (CFD Prices)
• Bears will want to see a break below the previous bear channel (103.40) with confirmation on a 1H candle close below the 50-Hour MA (102.66)

Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Brent crude oil surged above $106/bbl as the prolonged Iran conflict and continued Strait of Hormuz disruption reinforced fears of persistent global energy supply shortages and inflation pressures.
• The Federal Reserve maintained its “higher for longer” stance after stronger inflation data and elevated energy prices reduced expectations for rate cuts, while Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair, further shaping future policy expectations.
• The Trump-Xi summit kept markets cautious after Xi Jinping warned over Taiwan tensions, contributing to weakness across major Asia-Pacific equity indices despite continued resilience in US equities.
• Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 is now facing potential near-term weakness below 63,270 key short-term resistance, reinforced by a jump in oil prices.

• Trump-Xi Summit culminates with Taiwan warning: U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping wrap up a two-day state visit featuring business deals, but Xi issued a stark warning that mishandling the Taiwan issue could push U.S.-China relations to "a very dangerous place."
• Oil hovers above $106 on Iran war: Brent crude oil prices surged 5% over the week, hovering above $106 a barrel as the prolonged Iran conflict keeps the key Strait of Hormuz largely shut.
• Fed holds steady amid inflation shock, Warsh confirmed: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams stated there is no need right now to weigh any change in interest rate policy amid the Middle East war uncertainty. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate approved Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve.
• Gold set for weekly decline: Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,619.49 per ounce, down 1.9% for the week, pressured by higher energy prices fueling fears of inflation and prolonged higher interest rates.
• US retail sales and jobless claims increase: U.S. retail sales increased by 0.5% m/m in April, in line with expectations, while initial jobless claims also increased moderately last week, pointing to a stable but inflation-pressured economy.

Read more: Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 faces pullback risk as semiconductor rally shows signs of exhaustion

• Inflation and "higher for longer" rates: Higher energy prices from the Middle East war are driving up inflation, reinforcing fears that interest rates will remain higher for longer, as confirmed by NY Fed President John Williams.
• Geopolitical tensions drive commodities: The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices (Brent) elevated above $106, while the US dollar's strength makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive, leading to a weekly decline in gold.
• Sino-US relations in focus: The Trump-Xi summit brings both economic deals and geopolitical warnings, specifically concerning Taiwan, making the Asia Pacific region highly sensitive to diplomatic outcomes.

Equities: Despite global energy flows disrupting markets, the benchmark S&P 500 index extended its rally in 2026 towards the next psychological level of 7,500 and a record high.

Fixed Income: The prospect of prolonged higher interest rates, fueled by oil-driven inflation and affirmed by Fed officials, continues to exert pressure on bond markets.

FX: The US Dollar Index gained over 1% this week, supported by higher inflationary data in the US, in turn, significantly reducing Fed rate cut bets in 2026 and 2027 according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Commodities: Brent crude oil is hovering above $106 a barrel (up 5% this week). Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,619.49 per ounce, while spot silver fell 2.8% to $81.10.

• Stock markets: Markets are closely watching the conclusion of the Trump-Xi talks in Beijing, especially after Xi's stark warning regarding Taiwan, which could impact regional stability and equities. A stronger USD is now triggering weakness in regional benchmark stock indices at the open. NIkkei 225 (-0.8%), KOSPI (-2%), Hang Seng Index (-0.8%), China A50 (-0.3%), ASX 200 (-0.3%), and STI (-0.1%) at this time of writing.
• Currencies: The yuan is an outlier among its Asia Pacific peers; USD/CNH (offshore yuan) is trading almost unchanged at around 6.79, while AUD and NZD both decline by 0.4% against the USD, in line with lacklustre Asia Pacific equities.
• Economic Outlook: The improving regional manufacturing recovery in Taiwan and South Korea faces headwinds from expensive energy imports and a fading global risk appetite if the ceasefire is broken.

1. Conclusion of the Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Impact: USD/CNH, global equities.
2. US Industrial Production (Apr) - 9.15 pm SGT (consensus: 0.3% m/m, Mar: -0.5% m.m) Impact: USD, US stock indices

The Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) is now staging an intraday decline of -1.7% at the opening on Friday, 15 May, Asian session.

Its price action is now breaking below a month-long ascending channel support at 61,945 from the 30 March 2026 low, which increases the odds of a minor corrective decline sequence to retrace towards its 20-day moving average.

Watch the 63,270 key short-term pivotal resistance for the next intermediate support to come in at 61,180/60,795 (also the 20-day moving average). A break below 60,795 may trigger a further intraday drop towards 59,970 next.

On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 63,270 invalidates the bearish scenario to revive the bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the next intermediate resistances (new all-time highs) at 64,145, and 65,010/040 (Fibonacci extension cluster).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks explode to new highs in today's session
• Nasdaq and S&P 500 print fresh new records, while the Dow Jones gets back above 50,000
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

US stock indexes are reaching new all-time highs today, fueled by strong global risk appetite. The S&P 500 has moved past the 7,500 level, while the Nasdaq is also setting new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed back above 50,000.

The Chairman Warsh trade is leading market activity. Investors see his confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair as positive for stocks. Large investors are moving money into growth and risk-oriented assets, while other asset classes are seeing less demand.

Precious metals, which recently benefited from safe-haven buying, are now giving back some of their gains as market fears ease. This rise in stocks is global, with international indexes also rising, signalling broad risk appetite.

The ongoing diplomatic summit between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping is also supporting the rally. Investors are encouraged by the positive tone from Beijing. This important meeting is improving investor sentiment and offers hope that the global economy will move away from the deglobalization trends seen in 2025.

While markets are rallying, the Federal Reserve is also seeing major changes. Kevin Warsh has joined the Fed board as its new leader, and Miran is stepping down.

Since there has been no official statement about Jerome Powell leaving, Wall Street assumes he will stay on the Board of Governors for now.

To get ready for a potentially volatile weekend, dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Trump-Xi summit 2026: Key expectations and what markets are watching
• Kevin Warsh gets confirmed for Fed Chairman – Reactions for Dow Jones, Nasdaq & S&P 500
• Inflation is buoyant and Trump lands in China – North American Mid-Week Market Update

Nvidia continues to lead the push in Semiconductors, with the sector pulling the rest of the Market higher.

The Dow Jones broke its 49,500 to 50,000 range to the upside, looking to close above the key level for the first time since February 11.

Expect to see a continued push towards the end of the week, with the prior all-time highs being the next target for the bulls (~50,500).

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 50,200 morning highs
• ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• April 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500
• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600

Nasdaq is now forming what seems to be the basis of a short-term top, with the 2H RSI now forming a bearish divergence, turning lower despite the daily record highs – Bears will want to see a push below 29,400 with confirmation below the 2H 50-period MA (29,250).

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 29,500 - 29,600 current resistance
• Daily highs 29,620

Support Levels

• 2H 50-period MA (29,250) – (ST bearish below)
• 28,500 short-term pivot
• 28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)
• 27,500 micro-support
• Momentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)
• Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750
• Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300

As explored in our past day analysis of the Index, the S&P 500 showed high potential for a channel breakout and did so in this morning, reaching a 7,526 new record!

Despite the overbought momentum, the Index still looks strong enough to pursue its run higher – Nevertheless, keep an eye on if the Nasdaq ends up correcting as it may drag down sentiment with it.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,525 Daily ATH Resistance
• Next Stop 7,600

Support Levels

• Momentum Pivot 7,250 to 7,260
• Channel lows 7,230 (bearish below)
• 7,100 psychological level
• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the Trump-Xi meeting throughout the end of the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The 2026 Trump-Xi summit is viewed as a critical geopolitical event for financial markets, with investors primarily seeking signs of stabilisation in US-China trade relations, technology restrictions, and broader geopolitical tensions.
• Markets are focused on potential progress in semiconductor export controls, AI technology access, Taiwan-related communication channels, and currency stability, as even modest diplomatic improvements could support risk assets and Asian equities.
• The most likely market outcome remains a limited “managed competition” framework rather than a comprehensive trade deal, which could trigger only a temporary relief rally before markets refocus on inflation, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy risks.

Today’s two-day meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing is shaping up to be one of the most consequential geopolitical events for global markets in 2026

The summit comes at a time of heightened tensions driven by trade frictions, technology restrictions, Taiwan-related security concerns, and the inflation shock stemming from the Iran conflict.

Markets are likely expecting a de-escalation framework instead of a comprehensive trade agreement. Possible outcomes include:

• Partial tariff rollbacks or suspension of new tariffs.
• Agreements to resume high-level economic dialogue.
• China pledges increased purchases of US agricultural, energy, or industrial goods.
• Reduced rhetoric on export controls and sanctions.

A broad structural trade deal remains unlikely due to strategic rivalry between the two powers.

Technology remains the core battleground. Investors will focus on:

• Potential easing or delay of US semiconductor export restrictions (Watch out for potential easing of controls on Nvidia's H200 AI chips to China).
• Negotiations surrounding AI chips, rare earths, EV batteries, and critical minerals.
• Whether China receives any concessions on access to advanced technology.

Any softening stance could trigger strong rallies in Asian tech equities and semiconductor-linked stocks.

A key objective may simply be reducing geopolitical tail risks:

• Re-establishment of military communication hotlines.
• Commitments to avoid escalation around the Taiwan Strait.
• Diplomatic language aimed at reducing accidental military confrontation.

Even symbolic cooperation would likely be viewed positively by risk assets.

Given recent USD volatility and concerns over inflation:

• China may resist sharp yuan depreciation (the offshore CNH has continued to strengthen in the past week, approaching a 3-year high of 6.7740 per USD).
• The US may seek commitments against competitive devaluation.
• Both sides could emphasize financial stability to calm bond and FX markets.

This would matter significantly for Asian FX, emerging markets, and global risk sentiment.

• Positive scenario (most market-friendly):
  Limited trade truce with improved diplomatic tone may trigger a rally in equities, Asian exporters, semiconductors, and cyclical assets.
• Neutral scenario (most likely):
  Constructive dialogue, but few concrete deliverables may lead to a short-term relief rally followed by renewed focus on inflation and rates.
• Negative scenario (least likely):
  Breakdown in talks or aggressive rhetoric on tariffs/Taiwan sees a risk-off move into USD, gold, Treasuries, and defensive sectors.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US inflation pressures intensified after April PPI surged 6.0% y/y, reinforcing the “higher for longer” Federal Reserve narrative and fuelling expectations that any future Fed move could shift toward rate hikes rather than cuts.
• Donald Trump and Xi Jinping began high-stakes talks in Beijing, with AI competition, semiconductor restrictions, and Middle East geopolitical tensions dominating market focus.
• Despite rising bond yields and inflation shocks, AI-driven equity momentum remained resilient as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 climbed to fresh record highs, while energy markets stayed elevated above $100/bbl due to worsening Strait of Hormuz supply concerns.
• Chart of the day: AUD/USD bullish breakout from minor range configuration, 0.7210 key short-term support with next intermediate resistances at 0.7265, 0.7300, and 0.7340.

• US producer prices surge: April PPI jumped 1.4% month-over-month and 6.0% year-over-year, marking the biggest gain in four years. The hotter-than-expected print confirms inflation is accelerating amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.
• Trump arrives in Beijing for high-stakes summit: President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined the US delegation, highlighting the focus on the global AI race and the proposed US "MATCH Act" targeting Chinese chipmakers.
• EIA drastically revises Oil supply hit: The US Energy Information Administration revised its forecasts, projecting a much longer and more severe disruption to global oil supplies as Iran moves to formalize control over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed official: The US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to a 14-year term as a Federal Reserve governor, setting him up as the likely successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• Alibaba posted an operating loss on AI Spend: Alibaba Group ADRs slipped 3% after posting its first operating loss since the pandemic, underscoring the massive capital expenditures required to compete in the AI space. Interestingly, its ADR recovered as the US session progressed and ended with a gain of 8% to close at a near 5-month high.

• Inflation resurgence cements "Higher for Longer": Following the 3.8% CPI print, the massive 6.0% y/y headline PPI surge has completely wiped out remaining hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026, and reflected an increase in rate hike bets coming in the first half of 2027, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool.
• The cost of the AI arms race: Alibaba's earnings reflect a growing reality: the AI supercycle requires staggering, profitability-draining capital expenditures. Markets will increasingly scrutinize tech giants to balance AI spending with near-term margins.
• Structural geopolitical premiums: The oil market is shifting from pricing a "temporary disruption" to a "persistent geopolitical premium" as the Middle East conflict restricts global supply chain norms.

Equities: US stock markets remained buoyant despite a red-hot PPI print. Supported by tech stocks, the S&P 500 (+0.6%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+1%) rallied to another record high.

Fixed Income: The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to an intraday high of 4.5% on Wednesday, 13 May, hitting a 10-month high as bond markets fully absorb the dual CPI and PPI inflation shocks.

FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended gains to 98.45, marking a third consecutive session of strength as investors increased bets on a prolonged restrictive Fed policy.

Commodities: WTI and Brent crude remain elevated over $100/bbl following the EIA's grim supply revisions. Spot Gold is holding near $4,645/oz, supported by haven demand ahead of the Beijing summit.

• Stock markets: Chinese and Hong Kong equities will be in focus, following Alibaba's earnings miss, China's vocal opposition to the US MATCH Act, and the Trump-Xi summit gets underway. Tech heavyweights like Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, and Xiaomi will be closely watched. In today’s early Asia season, the China and Hong Kong stock markets opened with an upbeat tone; CSI 300 (+0.1%), China A50 (+0.1%), and Hang Seng Index (+1.1%) at this time of writing.
• Currencies: The yuan traded almost unchanged against the USD at 6.7855 per US dollar in today’s Asia opening hours as the Trump-Xi summit gets underway. The offshore yuan (CNH) has rallied for six consecutive sessions against the USD. It is now eyeing a near 3-year high of 6.7740 per US dollar as the market seems to be pricing a status quo in terms of US-China trade relations after the summit.
• Economic outlook: All regional eyes are on the Beijing summit. Any signs of diplomatic progress regarding Iran or AI trade regulations could trigger massive, rapid reversals in regional risk sentiment.

1. Trump-Xi Summit Developments Impact: USD/CNH, global equities, WTI, Brent crude
2. UK Q1 GDP Prelim - 2:00 pm SGT (consensus: 0.8% y/y, Q4 2025: 1% y/y) Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100
3. US Retail Sales (Apr) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 0.5% m/m, Mar: 1.7% m/m) Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indices
4. US Initial Jobless Claims (week ending 9 May) - (consensus: 205K, prior: 200K) Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indices
5. Applied Materials Earnings - after US session close Impact: Semiconductor stocks, Nasdaq 100

The price actions of the AUD/USD have staged a bullish breakout from a minor “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration on Wednesday, 13 May 2026.

Currently, it is retesting the former “Symmetrical Triangle” range resistance, which has now become a near-term pull-back support at 0.7244, as indicated by the hourly RSI momentum indicator, which is holding at the 50 level (see Fig. 1).

Watch the 0.7210 key short-term pivotal support on the AUD/USD. A clearance above 0.7265 triggers the next intermediate resistances at 0.7300 and 0.7340.

However, a break and an hourly close below 0.7210 negates the bullish tone for another round of potential minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 0.7180 (also the 20-day moving average), below it may see further weakness towards 0.7145/7130 next.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks rise but show mixed reactions to the confirmation of Kevin Warsh to become the next Fed Chair
• Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue to explode to new all-time highs, while the Dow Jones still struggles
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

After a long and uncertain process, the Senate has confirmed that Kevin Warsh will officially replace Jerome Powell as the head of the Federal Reserve for a four-year term.

Although he has not served on the Federal Reserve board since 2011, the new Fed Chair has stayed close to economics and finance as a partner at Stanley Druckenmiller's family office, which is one of the world’s top-performing hedge funds.

US stock benchmarks are mostly rising after the news, but the market’s reaction to Warsh’s confirmation is mixed.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq continues to jump to new all-time highs, signalling a welcome change and benefiting from strong momentum in growth stocks.

In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still struggling, as blue-chip investors try to figure out how a Fed led by Warsh will address persistent inflation and ongoing global challenges.

Overall, the reaction across different asset classes shows that Participants are feeling uncertain.
Both the US Dollar and Precious metals are still rising, building on their strong weekly gains as investors look for cover their bearish positions in the asset class, while, cryptocurrencies and US Treasuries continue to struggle.

The Market division shows that the market is still unsure about the new Fed Chair’s approach – hence, traders will have to assess his views at the coming FOMC meeting on June 17.

Explore the different reactions in Stock Markets by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Inflation is buoyant and Trump lands in China – North American Mid-Week Market Update
• Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 faces pullback risk as semiconductor rally shows signs of exhaustion
• Gold (XAU/USD) rises slow and steady – In-depth Gold technical analysis

The Stock Market heatmap is still heavily fractured – Stock Market leaders like Nvidia, Tesla, Eli Lilly and a few semiconductors are doing the heavy lifting while other names largely struggle and the AI boom continues to bulldoze the Nasdaq to new records.

After initial struggles, the Dow Jones is rallying back to the top of its tighter consolidation between 49,500 and 49,800, which provides further strength of support and resistance levels.

For an upside breakout, look for a 1H candle break on high volume above 49,800 – the confirmation comes on a close above 50,000.

On the other hand, bears will want to see a break below 49,500 and a longer-run pullback below 49,000.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 49,780 post-Warsh confirmation highs
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs (range highs)
• ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• April 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500 (mini range lows – short-term bearish below))
• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (mid-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600

Despite the record highs reached in today's session, led by a gigantic rebound after yesterday's rough correction, the immediate highs aren't so optimistic.

Indeed, the new record is stalling right above the previous record, a price action that hints at stop chasing rather than a continuous rise – Still, the previous rally hints at decent potential for upside, but to confirm, the index will have to print above 29,600.

On the other hand, if the action falls below the 50-Hour MA (29,160), the action may get dire.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 29,485 morning highs
• Next level 29,600 (Short-term bullish above)

Support Levels

• 50-Hour MA (29,160) (ST bearish below)
• 28,500 short-term pivot
• 28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)
• Momentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)
• Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750
• Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300

The S&P 500 is continuously following the higher part of its bull channel, helping a consistent bounce to new all-time highs – The Index is showing the strongest intraday price action out of the 3 major US Benchmarks.

As long as the action remains above the Channel's mid-line 7,375, expect the rally to persistent records to continue.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,390 - 7,400 Channel extension resistance (morning highs)
• 7,415 161.% Fib
• Next stop 7,480

Support Levels

• Momentum Pivot 7,250 to 7,260
• Channel lows 7,230 (bearish below)
• 7,100 psychological level
• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global Markets
• Traders have been preparing for the Trump-Xi meeting for months and it is finally happening, with the two leaders meeting in Beijing
• While the US-Iran war takes a step back in the headlines, economies are not welcoming its side-effects on inflation, exploding in recent releases

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.

Traders have spent months getting ready for the quintessential Trump-Xi summit, and now it is finally taking place.

As the two leaders meet in person in Beijing, the broader market is waiting to see what happens. Many expect this meeting to bring major geopolitical, economic progress and push back against the de-globalization worries that were common in 2025.

While investors await for further news, most asset classes are staying in consolidation.

WTI Crude Oil is the only exception to the market pause. Continuous supply shortages are pushing oil prices back above $100, and even though the US-Iran war is getting less daily coverage, its serious economic effects are becoming more obvious.

Tuesday’s CPI report showed a large 3.7% increase, 0.2% above expectations, but what really worried traders was this morning’s PPI release (Producer Price Index). Wholesale inflation came in at 5.2% year-over-year, much higher than the expected 4.9%.

A 1.4% rise on the month!

These back-to-back inflation reports are not so surprising, but definitely unpleasant. Since producer costs usually lead to higher consumer prices later, the high PPI suggests that retail inflation could remain high in the coming months.

This structural inflation spike almost guarantees there will be no rate cuts at the upcoming meetings, as seen in the Fed Rate pricing.

This rise in structural inflation means the Federal Reserve and other central banks will not be able to find an easy solution.

As seen in the last meetings across major Central Banks, policymakers are already changing their guidance and reconsidering whether to cut rates or raise them further.

Economic clarity from the Trump-Xi talks, the broader FX markets—and particularly the US Dollar—are remaining remarkably stoic, bracing for the next massive fundamental catalyst.

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

Read More:

• Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 faces pullback risk as semiconductor rally shows signs of exhaustion
• Asia open: US inflation reaccelerates to 3.8%, and chip stocks falter
• Gold (XAU/USD) rises slow and steady – In-depth Gold technical analysis

Both the Nasdaq and Japanese Nikkei 225 are dominating the charts over the past week and half, largely outperforming the more defensive and traditional TSX, Dow Jones and DAX.

The US Dollar is rallying slowly towards the 98.50 pivot zone, undoing a decent part of its Ceasefire correction.

The current test will be very important – US Dollar bulls will want to see a continuous rise above the 4H 200-period MA (98.72), while bears will want to see a slowdown and rejection around current levels.

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot
• 4H 200-period MA (98.72)
• 99.30 to 99.50 Resistance
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs
• War Highs 100.544 (Double Top)

Support Levels

• 98.18 4H 50-period MA
• 98.00 Major Support
• Support 97.40 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00

The Dollar is back in a much stronger position after recent weeks of struggle, but the rise isn't uniform – With the exception of the Yen, all Asia-Pacific major currencies are up against the greenback, as their respective Central Banks' hawkish pricing dominates!

The Canadian Dollar is actually losing some ground against all majors – A bizarre divergence when looking at Crude prices still exploding every second.

This will be a divergence to capture for some mean-reversion traders if this dynamic doesn't correct by then.

Volatility in FX Markets is slowly decreasing and USD/CAD, while rallying from its range lows, seems to be decreasing the pace of its rise, as indicated by the diverging RSI from overbought levels.

Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:

Resistance Levels:

• 1.3720 – 1.3750 Resistance
• 1.38 mini-Resistance +/- 150 pips
• 1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance (range highs)

Support Levels:

• 1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support now Pivot (4H 50-period MA)
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)
• 1.35 Key Psychological Support
• End-January Lows 1.34820

Except for the many Fed Speeches expected throughout the coming 7 days, traders will await for a few economic releases including the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing release next Monday, and Canadian CPI on Tuesday.

And don't forget the Beige Book next Wednesday afternoon!

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Nasdaq 100 extended its medium-term bullish trend to a fresh record high of 29,390, supported largely by explosive gains in semiconductor and AI-related stocks such as Intel, Advanced Micro Devices, and SanDisk.
• The strong correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and the iShares Semiconductor ETF suggests that emerging exhaustion signals in semiconductor stocks could trigger a near-term corrective pullback in the broader tech-heavy index.
• Bearish technical indicators, including bearish RSI divergence, overstretched price action above the 20-day moving average, and Bollinger Band exhaustion conditions, point to rising risks of a short-term mean reversion decline below the 29,505/615 resistance zone.

This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensions”, published on 8 May 2026.

The price actions of the US Nasdaq CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) have surged as expected; it rallied by 3.2% from Friday, 8 May 2026 intraday low of 28,480 to hit a fresh all-time intraday high of 29,390 on Monday, 11 May 2026 in the US session.

Its current medium-term uptrend phase has been in place since the 30 March 2026 low, and a significant contribution of the gains has been from US semiconductor and AI-hardware related stocks, such as SanDisk (+151%), Intel (+150%), and Advanced Micro Devices (+105%) in the past three months.

The price movement of the Nasdaq 100 and the iShares Philadelphia (PHLX) Semiconductor Sector exchange-traded fund (SOXX) has moved in almost perfect direct lockstep (see Fig. 1).

The 20-day rolling coefficient between the Nasdaq 100 and SOXX stands at 0.95, which indicates that future movements of US semiconductor stocks, using SOXX as a bellwether is likely to have a significant influence and impact on the Nasdaq 100.

The prior 6-week consecutive rally of the SOXX has reached an overstretched volatility condition, as seen in the daily Bollinger Bands indicator.

The daily price action of SOXX has a daily close above the upper Bollinger Band (two standard deviations away from the 20-day moving average) on Monday, 11 May 2026, coupled with a bearish divergence condition seen on the daily RSI momentum indicator at its overbought zone (see Fig. 2).

These observations suggest the bullish impulsive up move of SOXX since the 30 March 2026 low has reached a potential bullish exhaustion condition, where the next movement may be a multi-day corrective decline sequence, in turn, triggering a negative feedback loop into the Nasdaq 100.

Let’s now uncover the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the Nasdaq 100 from a technical analysis perspective.

Trend bias: Minor corrective decline below 29,505/615 key short-term pivotal resistance within medium-term uptrend (see Fig. 3).

Supports: 28,660, 28,460/280, and 27,850 (close to the 20-day moving average)

Next resistances: 29,893/953 and 30,410/417 (Fibonacci extension clusters)

• The current all-time intraday high of 29,390 printed on Monday, 11 May 2026, has moved significantly away from its 20-day moving average by almost 6%.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed a bearish divergence condition on Monday, 11 May 2026.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown below its key ascending support on Tuesday, 12 May 2026.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US inflation accelerated sharply in April, with headline CPI rising to 3.8% y/y and core CPI to 2.8% y/y, reinforcing the “higher-for-longer” Federal Reserve narrative and effectively eliminating expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
• Semiconductor stocks led a broad technology pullback after an extended rally, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 3% as major chip names, including Qualcomm and Intel, experienced aggressive profit-taking.
• Chart of the day: USD/JPY climbed toward the key 157.90 intervention risk zone as rising US yields strengthened the US dollar, although bearish RSI divergence now signals growing short-term upside exhaustion risks.

• US consumer prices jump further: Headline annual US CPI inflation rose to 3.8% y/y in April, higher than expected and the highest in three years. This means real wage growth has turned negative for the first time since 2023. Core inflation also jumped to 2.8% y/y, its steepest rise since September 2025.
• Iran peace deal on 'life support': Hopes for a Middle East peace resolution are fading rapidly after US President Donald Trump stated the US-Iran ceasefire is on "life support," sending oil prices sharply higher.
• Semiconductor sector sells off: A 70% rally over the past six weeks in chip stocks unraveled, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) falling 3%. Market darlings like Qualcomm (-11.5%) and Intel (-7%) dragged down the broader tech sector.
• US and Japan address FX volatility: Amid a surging US dollar, US and Japanese officials, including Bessent, agreed that excess foreign exchange volatility is undesirable.
• Anthropic share transfer rules raise doubts: AI giant Anthropic updated rules surrounding the buying and transfer of its shares, raising doubts about ownership rights ahead of its highly anticipated IPO.

• Fed rate cut bets wiped out: The historic energy shock and 3.8% CPI print have completely wiped out market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. If the Fed does move, current pricing from the CME FedWatch tool shows it will be to tighten.
• Political pressures stoke global yields: Wary that a successor to UK leader Keir Starmer may increase borrowing, long-term UK bond yields have surged to their highest levels since 1998. This complements rising yields in the US due to inflation fears.
• Potential froth coming off the AI rally: The sharp decline in semiconductors suggests investors are taking profits from an overheated sector, exacerbated by wild volatility in Asian tech markets and rising long-term borrowing costs.

Equities: The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.9%, dragged down by semiconductor stocks. The Dow inched higher by only 0.1%. Europe closed in the red. US healthcare was a bright spot, gaining 2% with UnitedHealth up 3%.

Fixed Income: US Treasury yields surged 5 bps across the curve, reacting to inflation data and a soft 10-year note auction characterized by a low bid/cover ratio. UK 30-year yields hit highs not seen since 1998.

FX: The US Dollar rose broadly as rate cut expectations evaporated. Sterling fell 0.5%, becoming the biggest decliner among major currencies amid UK political uncertainty.

Commodities: Oil prices rebounded aggressively on fading ceasefire hopes, with WTI surging 4% to move back above the critical $100/bbl level. Brent rallied by 3% to close at $107.70/bbl.

• Stock markets: Japan managed to end higher on Tuesday, 12 May, but Asia ex-Japan broadly declined. South Korea's KOSPI ended down 2% after a wild rollercoaster ride, setting the tone for the global semiconductor sell-off.
• Currencies: The South Korean Won slumped 1% against the surging US Dollar, reflecting vulnerability to the global energy shock and risk-off sentiment.
• Economic outlook: Focus shifts heavily to the upcoming Trump-Xi Beijing summit. Investors are seeking clarity on AI policies and broader trade relations as inflation risks mount globally.

1. AU Wespac Consumer Confidence (May) - 9.30 am SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crosses, ASX 200
2. Euro Zone Q1 GDP (Flash) & Industrial Production (Mar) - 5:00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
3. US Producer Price Inflation (Apr) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.9% y/y, Mar: 4% y/y) Impact: US Treasuries, USD, US stock indices
4. Asian Earnings Heavyweights: Tencent, Alibaba, Nissan, Softbank Impact: Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, Global Tech stocks

The recent four-day rebound of 1.8% in the USD/JPY, from the 6 May 2026 low of 155.03, has reached the prior Japanese authorities’ “stealth intervention” level of 157.90.

In addition, short-term momentum has turned bearish, as the hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region on Tuesday, May 12, in the US session.

Watch the 158.10 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 156.50 may see a further potential drop to retest the next intermediate supports at 155.55 and 154.65 (see Fig. 1).

However, a clearance with an hourly close above 158.10 negates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 158.60 (also the 50-day moving average) and 159.10.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After yesterday's sharp rally in alternative precious metals, with Copper, Platinum, and Silver all surging as Chinese inflation reached a 45-month high, the strong upward momentum has now eased.

However, Precious Commodities traders were caught off guard by this morning's higher-than-expected US inflation report.

As the US Dollar surged in response to the hawkish CPI data, traditional risk assets and alternative metals pulled back.

Still, the metals complex is holding strong relative to the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the broader cryptocurrency market, which are seeing much sharper declines today.

Broad financial markets are now essentially frozen in a state of suspended animation following the CPI release – Participants eyes are firmly turning toward the monumental Trump-Xi diplomatic summit scheduled over the next three days.

This high-stakes meeting between the world's two largest economic superpowers is virtually guaranteed to rock global investor appetite and set the directional tone for the remainder of the quarter – And metals won't be isolated from such dynamics.

Despite the current economic and geopolitical uncertainty, Gold has stayed relatively quiet: The metal is consolidating within its wide $4,500 to $4,900 range.

By holding steady and absorbing market volatility, Gold is building a solid technical foundation for a possible longer-term rally.

Importantly, Gold has stayed resilient even with recent hawkish data and the fast-paced rise in Crude oil prices; Ongoing relative strength which suggests that the fundamental outlook for this safe-haven asset may be changing in the near future.

Traders should expect massive, headline-driven volatility in the very near term all across Markets and the Yellow Metals – The ultimate question is which direction this historic consolidation will finally break.

Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) to look where the action could head for the rest of the week, if not weeks.

Read More:

• Silver (XAG/USD) is in breakout mode, pushing above $85 – In-depth Silver technical analysis
• The US Dollar rallies back after CPI, is the correction is over ? – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overview
• Chart alert: WTI crude is poised for a potential volatility bullish breakout above $102.54/bbl

Gold has been forming the basis for a decent support between $4,500 and $4,900, helping the previously bearish momentum to turn neutral.

Having failed to push for further downside, bulls are slowly regaining the advantage with the Weekly RSI slowly turning bullish since the beginning of the month.

This week's candle, still forming, is for now looking like a Bullish Hammer.

After a bearish reaction to the morning US Inflation numbers, some mean reversion buying is pushing back above the previous candle, forming an bullish engulfing pattern.

Buyers will want to pursue this bullish momentum to push above the $4,780 weekly highs.

Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• Intraday highs $4,780
• $4,850 to $4,900 Key Resistance (Range highs)
• $5,100 Pivotal Resistance
• Gold ATH record $5,602

Support Levels:

• Daily Momentum Pivot $4,650 - $4,700
• December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (Range lows)
• Major Support $4,350 to $4,400
• War lows $4,101

The Yellow Metal is extending higher towards the end of the session, back above the $4,700 level and the 50-Hour MA.

Bulls will need to expand their strength above the intraday level to extend further – Below $4,650, the 200-Hour MA, the action may get more bearish towards the bottom of the range.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar saw a sharp correction after the fragile ceasefire began, but that downward trend has now completely stopped.

With the peace narrative having stalled, it is clear that the FX market is taking a more realistic view of the US-Iran diplomatic talks than Stock Markets, which remain optimistic despite little real progress.

Foreign exchange markets are focusing on energy prices instead of tech sector excitement, and are adjusting for geopolitical risks.

After gaining against the US Dollar in late March and early April, most major currencies are back to trading in a narrow range.

Today, though, they are quickly reversing as WTI Crude oil moves back above $100 with the recently souring narrative..

The ongoing conflict and related economic challenges are supporting the US Dollar. Although new reports suggest Iran may dilute its highly enriched uranium to 3.7% and 20%, overall diplomatic talks have stalled, and the uncertainty continues to disrupt energy supply chains while adding to the demand for the US Dollar.

Along with the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, a higher-than-expected inflation report has strengthened the US Dollar, and make sure to stay logged in because there will be more reports for inflation coming up tomorrow (PPI).

Today’s CPI showed headline inflation at 3.8% (compared to 3.7% expected) and core CPI at 2.8% (versus 2.6% forecast) – A huge rise but not so surprising considering the explosion in gas prices.

The strong inflation reading keeps suggesting that the Fed will keep rates as is (if not hiking!), putting pressure on other major currencies.

We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD to assess the current state of the FX Market and where to look next.

Discover:

• Chart alert: WTI crude is poised for a potential volatility bullish breakout above $102.54/bbl
• Asia open: Stocks hit new highs on AI optimism as US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a thread
• Silver (XAG/USD) is in breakout mode, pushing above $85 – In-depth Silver technical analysis

The US Dollar is breaking out of its end-March downward channel after forming a triple bottom right around the 97.50 level.

With the recent lows conciding with the mid-zone of the larger 96.00 to 100.00 range, the consolidation could be tightening further between 98.00 to 100.00 as long as the peace process doesn't move forward.

Expect more US Dollar rallies if the Index breaches 08.50

Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:

Resistance Levels

• 98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot
• 98.78 4h 200-period MA
• 99.40 to 99.50 Resistance
• Initial War Spike 99.68
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone
• War Highs 100.544

Support Levels

• 98.00 2025 Support (testing – bearish below)
• Support 97.40 to 97.60 (triple bottom)
• 2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support
• Range lows at Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00

GBP/USD is still remaining between 1.3410 to 1.36 but now rejecting its resistance zone, heading back to support.

Add to the ongoing outflows political turmoil in the UK with Keir Starmer's Ministers resigning and you get there a pretty bearish outlook for the Pound.

While still far, look at whether the 1.34170 (2024 top) level holds.

Levels of interest for AUD/USD:

Resistance Levels

• December Resistance 1.36 (range highs)
• pre-FOMC Highs 1.36010
• Resistance 1.37 zone
• 2025 Resistance around 1.38

Support Levels

• Key Pivot 1.3410 to 1.3440
• 1.34170 (2024 top) level
• Pivotal Support 1.3250 - 1.33
• 1.32 War Support

EUR/USD is also rejecting its 1.18 resistance and quickly falling towards the 1.17 momentum pivot, with bearish acceleration expected as the RSI is falling below neutral.

Sellers are also breaching the 4H 50-period MA, hence this could weigh on the price action. While still lacking momentum, traders will want to confirm the action with strong bear candles and volumes within 1.1720.

Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:

Resistance Levels

• 1.17380 4H 50-period MA
• Resistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)
• 1.1830 June 2025 highs
• 1.1850 to 1.1860 Recent Test
• Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 Zone

Support Levels

• 1.17 to 1.1720 March Pivot
• Rebound highs 1.17200 (bearish below)
• Major Pivot 1.16250 to 1.16350
• 1.1540 to 1.1570 War Support
• 1.1475 to 1.15 November Support
• War lows 1.1410

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on Ceasefire news!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains strongly supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions after hopes for renewed US-Iran peace talks faded, increasing the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption and sustained global energy supply tightness.
• Prediction market data from Polymarket shows sharply declining probabilities of shipping traffic normalising in the Strait of Hormuz by May and June 2026, reinforcing elevated geopolitical risk premiums in oil markets.
• Technically, WTI crude is showing bullish breakout conditions above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, supported by bullish candlestick formations and positive RSI momentum, with $102.54 acting as the key breakout resistance level.

The optimism that was being priced in by global markets last week for an imminent second round of US-Iran peace deal talks to take place this week has fizzled out after US President Trump rejected Tehran’s response to the latest US proposal on Sunday.

The key hurdle is the transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium. In a nutshell, without any set dates for peace talks emerging on the near-term horizon, the ongoing two-month-plus closure in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to extend, which may aggravate the global energy and oil crunch as oil flows continue to dwindle.

Despite the fragile US-Iran ceasefire that has remained in place since 8 April 2026, oil continues to be the top-performing asset class.

From the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 through Friday, 8 May 2026, WTI crude oil futures surged by 42%, underscoring persistent supply disruption concerns and elevated geopolitical risk premiums in the energy market (see Fig. 1).

Betting data from Polymarket (a major prediction market platform) suggests a low probability of a return to normal shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

The probability of Hormuz’s traffic returning to normal by the end of May 2026 has been reduced to 12.5% as of 12 May 2026 from 35.5% printed on 7 May 2026.

A similar trend is evident for the end of June 2026, where the probability has fallen sharply to 37.5% from 60.5% over the same period (see Fig. 2).

Let’s now focus on the 1 to 3 days trajectory of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.

Trend bias: Rebound towards March/April 2026 medium-term range top with 95.00 as key short-term pivotal support (see Fig. 3).

Resistances: 102.54, 108.20, and 112.84

Next supports: 90.50, 86.58, and 82.89

• The price actions of the West Texas oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) have started to accelerate higher above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages, following a brief period of subdued volatility observed on Friday, 8 May, and Monday, 11 May.
• The current daily candlestick (Tuesday, 12 May) has transformed into an impending “Bullish Marubozu” pattern after a prior daily bullish “Hammer” seen on 7 May, coupled with a retest on its key 50-day moving average. A sign of positive follow-through that may lead to higher prices.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator continues to exhibit bullish momentum conditions as it remains supported by an ascending trendline.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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• Nikkei 225 continued its strong rally to a fresh record high of 63,788, driven largely by technology-related heavyweights such as SoftBank Group and Murata Manufacturing.
• Despite the broader medium-term bullish trend remaining intact, technical indicators now suggest a near-term corrective pullback risk below the 64,145 resistance level, supported by a developing bearish “Head & Shoulders” pattern.
• Momentum conditions have weakened as hourly RSI bearish divergence and Elliott Wave/Fibonacci analysis point to exhaustion in the recent five-wave bullish impulsive sequence, increasing the probability of a short-term retracement toward 61,945 and lower support zones.

This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Chart alert: Nikkei 225’s bullish reversal extends towards new all-time highs”, published on 16 April 2026.

The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 index futures) have rallied as expected in the past four weeks and surpassed the 62,044, as highlighted in our earlier report.

It hit a fresh intraday all-time high of 63,788 on Monday, 11 May 2026, led by technology-related component stocks in the past month, such as Softbank Group (+58%), and Murata Manufacturing (+53%).

However, the price actions of financial assets do not move vertically, as there will be periods of countertrend movements or trend reversals due to changing sentiment.

Right now, the Nikkei 225 faces the risk of a minor corrective countertrend decline within a medium-term uptrend phase.

Let’s unpack in greater detail.

Trend bias: Minor bearish corrective decline within medium-term uptrend below 64,145 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 1).

Supports: 61,945 (neckline of “Head & Shoulders”), 61,180/60,795, and 59,970 (also the 20-day moving average).

Next resistances: 65,010/65,040 and 66,190/66,568 (Fibonacci extension and upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from the 30 March 2026 low).

• Since 7 May 2026, its price action has traced out a minor bearish reversal “Head & Shoulders” configuration, indicating a potential end of its minor uptrend phase from the 30 April 2026 low.
• Based on the Elliot Wave Theory and Fibonacci analysis, the price actions have completed a five-wave minor bullish impulsive up move sequence (labelled as i, ii, iii, iv & v) with a potential terminal level at 63,772 (based on 0.382 Fibonacci extension from the start of the minor bullish impulsive up move from the 30 April 2026 low). The next probable move is a minor corrective decline to retrace its prior five-wave minor bullish impulsive up move.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has shown a bullish exhaustion condition (bearish divergence since 7 May 2026 at its overbought region, which supports the potential incoming minor corrective decline.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Global equity markets, led by Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI, climbed to fresh record highs as AI-driven optimism continued to overpower geopolitical concerns surrounding the fragile US-Iran ceasefire.
• Rising oil prices, stronger inflation expectations, and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric reinforced the “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative, pushing US Treasury yields higher and supporting broad US dollar strength.
• Chart of the day: The Hang Seng Index maintained a constructive bullish structure after rebounding from its 20-day moving average, with momentum indicators suggesting potential upside continuation above the 26,210/100 support zone.

• US-Iran ceasefire 'on life support': US President Donald Trump stated the ceasefire with Iran is fading, dashing hopes for an imminent peace deal after rejecting Iran's recent proposal as "unacceptable" over the weekend.
• Global stocks reach record highs: Major indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI, powered to new record highs as the "artificial intelligence fever" vastly outweighed concerns over Middle East supply shocks.
• Alphabet and Amazon tap overseas debt: Tech giants are issuing debt in lower-yielding currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss francs to fund massive AI infrastructure buildouts without draining cash reserves.
• Trump heads to China for crucial summit: President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set for comprehensive talks spanning Iran, nuclear issues, trade, and AI, accompanied by a large entourage of US corporate titans from companies like Tesla, Apple, and BlackRock.
• US CPI data looms: Markets brace for Tuesday's crucial April CPI report, with headline inflation expected to jump to 3.7% y/y (from 3.3%) primarily due to the energy price shock caused by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure.

• AI fever overpowers geopolitics: Record US equity prices are coexisting with elevated oil and rising yields. According to BlackRock, markets are comfortably pricing in both AI-driven growth and the impact of the Middle East supply shock, remaining heavily "pro-risk" despite the chaos.
• Extreme market concentration: Top-heavy indices have become a global feature. The top 10 US stocks now account for 33% of the overall market value. [cite: 2] Meanwhile, single tech champions like Samsung and TSMC make up roughly 20% and 40% of their respective national indices.
• Inflation and hawkish Fed risks: With inflation metrics heating up and oil surging, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that the future of monetary policy could actually include interest rate increases, fundamentally challenging recent rate-cut hopes.

Equities: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new record highs. [cite: 2] The tech sector gained 1%, and energy rallied 2.6%, while the Philadelphia semiconductor index reached a new peak (+2.6%).

Fixed Income: US Treasury yields climbed, with a 6 basis point rise at the short end bear steepening the curve as a 3-year auction drew weak demand.

FX: The US Dollar inched higher, with the Japanese Yen serving as the biggest G10 decliner. Emerging market currencies like the Indian Rupee and South Korean Won dropped sharply on dollar strength and high energy costs.

Commodities: Oil surged 3% (jumping $3/barrel) as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Silver rallied 7% to hit a 2-month high at $86.10/oz, outperforming Gold, which only recorded a modest gain of 0.4% due to a rebound in US Treasury yields.

• Stock markets: Regional markets broadly surged. The Nikkei, KOSPI, and MSCI Asia ex-Japan indices all hit new record highs. China's A-share market reached an 11-year high following a positive data dump showing surging export growth.
• Currencies: The region experienced broad weakness against the USD. The Yen (-0.3%) and Won (-1%) declined despite the massive regional equity rally.
• Economic outlook: China's latest trade data showed a widening trade surplus and rising price pressures in April, suggesting the economy is moving out of disinflation, though unemployment ticked up.

1. AU NAB Business Confidence (Apr) - 9.30 am SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crosses, ASX 200
2. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) - 5.00 pm SGT (consensus:- 20, Apr:-20) Impact: EUR/USD. EUR crosses, DAX
3. US Core Inflation (Apr) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 2.7% y/y, Mar: 2.6% y/y) Impact: All asset classes

The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) have managed a minor bullish reversal right above its 20-day moving average after a 1.7% decline from the 7 May 2026 intraday high of 26,634.

The overall price structure remains bullish as it continues to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low.

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has exhibited bullish momentum conditions as it continues to be supported by an ascending trendline above the 50 level and has not reached its overbought zone (above the 70 level).

Watch the 26,210/100 key short-term pivotal support to maintain a potential bullish bias. A clearance above 26,723 sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at 27,100 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 1).

On the other hand, failure to hold and an hourly close below 26,100 jeopardizes the bullish tone for a slide to retest the next intermediate support at 25,930 (also the key 200-day moving average).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver has officially entered what looks to be a real breakout.

As we noted in our Friday analysis, the metals sector was overdue for a rally, and that move is now underway – Silver has attracted strong buying and has surged past the key $85 level to start the week, up 7% on the session.

The macroeconomic environment is changing: In recent weeks (if not months now!), geopolitical headlines have stopped driving daily moves in most risk assets, and the precious commodities were not isolated.

Metals were hit hard at first by conflict and rate-hike fears, but while that link has not disappeared, it is fading.

Energy is now the only asset class still reacting to news coming from the Middle East, mostly because of supply issues in Hormuz and the lack of a ceasefire agreement.

One of the most interesting parts of this breakout is the fact that Silver is moving higher without help from gold, which usually sets the direction for the alternative asset class:

Normally, silver follows Gold’s moves, but this time, the strong bounce suggests there is real demand and strong buying interest focused on alternative metals instead.

Traders could also be responding to China’s higher inflation report from yesterday, which suggests its inflation, a short-cut for economic activity after deflationary trends, is starting to recover.

Silver and Copper are not just precious metals—they are mainly industrial metals.

When China, the world’s largest industrial producer, shows stronger economic activity, it usually means demand for these metals is rising.

We will dive into a Silver two-timeframe intraday analysis to prepare for the heavy action that's unfolding in front of our eyes – Is this a breakout ?

Let's get right into it.

Read More:

• Copper near record highs. Market fears supply constraints and bets on strong demand
• Markets Weekly Outlook - Is the 'Risk-On' Rally sustainable with rates and energy elevated?
• Tech does not wait on CPI and Geopolitics – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 CPI Levels

After forming a bullish weekly divergence, the action is now turning much more bullish and this translated into a break of the prior $83 to $84.50 resistance, now acting as key momentum pivot.

Evolving into a steep bull channel, the move should trigger high volatility for coming days.

Without many resistance levels until there, bulls should remain in control until $90, level to be closely monitored.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• March range Resistance $90 to $92
• March High Resistance $95 to $97
• Key psychological resistance $100 to $104
• All-Time Highs $121

Support Levels:

• Major Resistance now Pivot $83 to $84.50
• Pivot highs $80 - $81.50
• Pivot lows $74.50 - $75
• $61.10 War Lows

Looking at the 1H Candle points to clearer action ahead, with the morning extension now pointing to a slowing in the buying due to the overbought RSI.

The fact that the action did not pullback however translates in the fact that buyers are not giving up their freshly gained advantage.

Check out reactions to the channel top however (~$86.50).

For late bulls, watch out for overbought conditions – to do so, either wait for a continued explosion (buy stop above $87) or pullback to $81.50 - $82.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks somewhat consolidate as uncertainty withstands to start the week, preparing for tomorrow's CPI report
• Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue to grind higher, supported by option-positioning and a very resilient semiconductor sector
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

US stock indexes are starting to settle as uncertainty returns at the beginning of the week.

After last week’s big, news-driven moves, traders are stepping back and getting ready for tomorrow’s essential CPI report; A kind of cautious trading is common before major economic data, especially since central banks are watching closely for signs of how the Middle East conflict might be affecting consumer prices.

Adding to this economic uncertainty, both the US and Iran turned down each other’s diplomatic proposals over the weekend.

Without a ceasefire agreement, WTI Crude Oil prices are steadily rising right at the edge of $100 – As energy costs keep climbing, the risk of persistent, war-related inflation remains the main obstacle to hopes for interest rate cuts but this seemingly isn't much of a concern for Stock Markets these days!

Even with these ongoing geopolitical issues, the broader stock market is still resilient, showing that participants appear to be looking beyond the current Middle East situation and are focusing their optimism on the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in China later this week.

With this sense of optimism about upcoming global events, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 keep moving higher.

Strong options activity and a bullying semiconductor sector are helping to support these gains, even as worries about the bigger economic picture remain.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is taking a more cautious approach, but strong interest in tech stocks is keeping the overall market afloat, despite ongoing uncertainty.

Let's prepare for tomorrow's quintessential US CPI report by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Asia open: US futures dipped as US-Iran peace deal hopes dimmed
• Markets Weekly Outlook - Is the 'Risk-On' Rally sustainable with rates and energy elevated?
• Copper near record highs. Market fears supply constraints and bets on strong demand

The split continues further with Semiconductors really demarcates itself from the past week's tech-wide rally, while the rest lag behind, leaving the DJIA underperforming the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

The Dow Jones is consolidating further between 49,400 to 49,700 as participants keep placing more attention to the higher-volatility Nasdaq and S&P 500.

The RSI momentum is somewhat turning lower and rejecting the 2H 50-MA (49,676), pointing to lower action in the upcoming action.

Watch for 49,000 to the downside, and 50,000 for the upside.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 2H 50-MA (49,676)
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs
• ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• April 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500
• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600

Nasdaq continues its rocket path towards 29,500, up 11.78% since its prior all-time high.

With the ongoing extension, overbought RSI conditions are not bringing back any sign of rejection. Looking at the tight bull channel (multiple green candles overlapping each other, I invite you to discover this powerful pattern) seen on the Daily chart, no element is poiting to a slowdown of the consistent price discovery.

Except for any fundamental change, nothing can stop this train!

To the upside, look at 30,000 on the long-term – To the downside, below 29,000 traders can expect accelerated downside.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 29,500 potential resistance
• Next level 29,750

Support Levels

• 29,250 consolidation and momentum pivot
• 28,500 Minor support
• 28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)
• 27,500 micro-support
• Momentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)
• Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300

The S&P 500 is still pulling higher within its upward channel, testing its upper bound.

By failing to reject it, odds for an upside breakout are increasing, but this will be heavily contingent on tomorrow's CPI release.

Look at reactions to the 7,450 potential resistance, with the next stop at 7,500.

For the downside, sellers will want to see a clear rejection and sale below 7,400.

• On the bigger picture, breaking 7,250 points to a larger retracement (to previous all-time highs?)

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,430 - 7,450 Channel extension potential resistance
• Next stop 7,500

Support Levels

• 7,320 Past week retracement
• Pivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260
• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US futures edged lower in the early Asian session: Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace response, dampening hopes for a formal US-Iran agreement and keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated.
• Stronger-than-expected US April jobs data: Reinforced the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative, reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and supporting elevated Treasury yields.
• The AI-driven equity rally remains intact globally: Supported by semiconductor momentum, expanding hyperscaler AI capex, and new industrial AI initiatives involving Apple, Intel, and Jeff Bezos.
• Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100’s bullish impulsive up move overstretched, at risk of minor corrective decline below 29,505/615 key short-term resistance. Intermediate supports at 28,835 and 28,460/280.

• Trump rejects Iran peace response: U.S. President Donald Trump called Iran's response to the US peace proposal 'unacceptable' over the weekend. This diplomatic snag casts a shadow over the immediate prospects of a formalized treaty, keeping a floor under geopolitical risk premiums even as active military engagements pause.
• US jobs report defies expectations: A better-than-expected April employment report (actual: 115K vs consensus: 62K) has led analysts to conclude that the Federal Reserve may forgo any interest rate cuts in 2026, as robust hiring and sticky inflation keep policy restrictive.
• US-Iran ceasefire holds after test: Reuters confirmed that while the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire late last week in the most serious test of their ceasefire, both sides indicated they did not want to escalate, and the situation has returned to normal.
• Apple & Intel's chip pact: The AI hardware supercycle continues to dominate, with reports emerging over the weekend that Apple has reached a preliminary deal with Intel to produce chips.
• Yuan hits 3-year highs ahead of summit: China's yuan strengthened to a three-year high against the US dollar, setting the stage for the highly anticipated Beijing summit between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15.
• Bezos targets industrial AI: Reuters Breakingviews highlighted that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is raising $10 billion to help build AI models that understand the physics of production, signaling the next wave of AI capital expenditure.

• The "No Rate Cuts" reality: The combination of the hot April jobs report and persistent inflation has cemented the "higher for longer" narrative. Markets are actively pricing out the likelihood of any Federal Reserve easing for the remainder of 2026.
• Complex geopolitics (ceasefire holds, diplomacy stalls): Equity investors are navigating a nuanced Middle East landscape. While the physical ceasefire holding prevents a devastating oil spike above $100/bbl, Trump's "unacceptable" designation of Iran's terms means energy and defense sectors will retain a persistent risk bid.
• AI Capex expanding beyond Silicon Valley: The AI boom is broadening. With Morgan Stanley projecting top-tier hyperscaler AI capex to top $1.1 trillion next year, investments are now flowing into industrial and physical-world AI applications.

Equities: Wall Street advanced robustly on Friday, with the S&P 500 recording weekly gains. Semiconductor giants like AMD and Micron led the charge higher as the AI trade remains the dominant market force. Today’s early Asian session (Monday), S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures dipped 0.2% after Trump rejected Iran’s peace deal proposal.

Fixed Income: The strong jobs report keeps intense pressure on the bond market. The US long bond yield (30-year) remains supported at 4.90% (50-day moving average), implying risk of deeply anchored inflation expectations.

FX: The Japanese Yen remains highly volatile following Japan's suspected $67 billion intervention over the past two weeks. The Yuan is serving as a regional anchor at three-year highs.

Commodities: Gold rally remained subdued below its 50-day moving average, acting as a key intermediate resistance at around $4,775/oz, while China's PBOC loaded up on bullion for an 18th straight month offers support. Crude oil is fluctuating near the $100 level.

• Stock markets: Asian tech giants continue to provide the bull run's center of gravity. South Korea's KOSPI recently crossed the historic 7,000 mark as Samsung's market cap surpassed $1 trillion, driven by surging memory chip demand. Mixed performances; KOSPI (+4%), and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%), while intraday losses were seen in Hang Seng Index (-0.9%) and ASX 200 (-0.8%) at this time writing.
• Currencies: The PBOC's management of the Yuan is keeping regional FX relatively stable ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, though the Yen's wild swings (recently touching 155/$) are keeping carry-trade investors on edge.
• Economic outlook: The region is absorbing the dual impacts of an AI-driven export boom (massively benefiting Taiwan and South Korea) while navigating the structural headwinds of expensive energy imports.

1. China Inflation Rate & PPI (Apr) - 9:30 am SGT (consensus: 0.8% y/y-Inflation & 1.5% y/y-PPI) Impact: USD/CNH, Hang Seng, China A50, AUD/USD
2. US Existing Home Sales (Apr) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: 4.05M, Mar:3.98M) Impact: US stock indices, USD
3. Geopolitical updates on the US-Iran peace proposal Impact: All asset classes

The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) had undergone a steep bullish impulsive up move sequence since 30 April 2026, and two key technical elements suggest that it now faces an imminent risk of a minor corrective pull-back.

Last Friday’s rally on 8 May has led the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index to hover right below the upper boundary of its medium-term ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low. Secondly, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has started to stage a downward reversal after it surged close to an extreme overbought level of 85 (see Fig. 1).

Watch the 29,505/615 key short-term pivotal resistance. A break below 28,835 (downside trigger) may expose the next intermediate support at 28,460/280 (also the lower boundary of the ascending channel from 30 March 2026 low).

On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 29,615 invalidates the minor bearish scenario to see the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 29,893/953 and 30,410/417.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.