Obama Blog

Gingrich retakes frontrunner status

2012-01-21T21:04:00.000-08:00

With Newt Gingrich's resounding victory in South Carolina tonight, he definitely moves into front runner status in my book. Just consider a few things.

South Carolina is a good barometer for voting in the entire American South. I am including delegate rich states like Texas as part of the "South." Even in states that do not have winner-take-all, Gingrich stands to gain many delegates throughout the South.

Then there are the conservative states in the Midwest and the "Rust Belt." Again, many of these states are loaded with delegates. With Sarah Palin's endorsement, he stands to do well in the northern states and all states with strong Tea Party infrastructure.

Now of course there could still be some campaign-crushing revelation that pops up and changes the course of the race, but for now I see Newt as the solid front-runner and the candidate to beat.

However, all indications points to a tough fight for the nomination that could last for a few more months at least. For the Obama campaign this is a good thing since it will mean that the super PACs will need to spend much of their money supporting their candidates rather than going after the president.

Gingrich surging as South Carolina vote looms

2012-01-20T18:51:00.000-08:00

Newt Gingrich is surging in South Carolina polls while Mitt Romney's campaign appears to be collapsing the day before the big primary.

I have viewed South Carolina as a 'king-maker' state ever since the 2008 primary and it could play the same role for the Republicans this time around unless it is a very close race. With Rick Perry dropping out of the race and conservatives appearing the recognize the need to rally around a single candidate, Rick Santorum's support appears to be drying up in the southern state.

Of the remaining conservatives, Gingrich seems to be picking up most of the votes from Perry and Santorum.

Sarah Palin thinks the interview with Gingrich's former wife just before the primary will actually help rather than hurt Newt. She may be right. Conservatives are generally suspicious of the "liberal" media and the timing of the interview may play into Gingrich's hands as he will be viewed as victimized by the "left."

If Gingrich wins, he will be in a good position to rally even more conservatives into his corner. When you do the math, it's obvious that the conservative candidates combined are well ahead of Gingrich in the overall vote count. In conservative Iowa, it appears that Santorum will actually come out the winner.

Should conservatives coalesce around Gingrich, he should become the favorite in many states where the Tea Party has established powerful get-out-the-vote machines.

Newt Gingrich's Explosive South Carolina GOP Debate

Obama 2012 Campaign Strategy

2012-01-18T16:44:00.000-08:00

In the Time article "The 15% Question: Why Mitt Romney's Tax Rate Matters," by Adam Sorenson, he shows why Romney's image may play an important role in Obama campaign strategy should the former Massachusetts governor win the nomination.

Obama's handlers are figuring out ways for the president to win enough electoral votes to take the election and part of the strategy will involve coming out with the right message. Recently, Obama's speeches have leaned more toward a populist approach in agreement with many of the sentiments of the Occupy movement.

Mitt Romney would make an excellent opponent for framing the issues around the growing conflict between the "99 percent" and the "1 percent."

Talking to reporters, Romney said that his tax rate is close to 15% because most of his earnings come from investments (capital gains). That means that basically he pays a lower rate than working lower middle class Americans despite having a fortune estimated at $250 million.

If that was not enough, a recent ABC report indicates that Romney is shielding millions of dollars of his wealth from US taxes through offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands.

Expect to see these issues resurface should Romney win the nomination. Also, expect to see the video of Romney claiming in Iowa that corporations are people played repeatedly by Obama supporters if not the campaign itself, if an Obama-Romney match-up occurs.

An Obama campaign strategy centered around a populist message will appeal to many voters still hurting from a slowly-recovering economy against the backdrop of a Republican Party that seems not to care much about creating jobs for Americans.

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Romney critic on Bain Capital resurfaces

Gingrich super PAC releases anti-Romney movie

2012-01-12T18:04:00.000-08:00

Supporters of Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich are letting go with all guns blazing against front-runner Mitt Romney by releasing a 28-minute movie depicting Romney as a ruthless corporate raider.

Romney used the term "creative destruction" to describe the tactic of closing businesses for profit. He stated that in order for the "economy to thrive as ours does there are a lot of people who will suffer as a result of that."

The pro-Gingrich super-PAC Winning Our Future financed the film, which is titled "When Mitt Romney came to Town," and from various reports, it appears they will air it bit-by-bit in short ad spots in South Carolina before the Jan. 21 primary.

Here is the movie broken into two parts on YouTube:

Romney wins New Hampshire primary

2012-01-10T18:36:00.000-08:00

Mitt Romney has won the New Hampshire primary with Ron Paul coming in second and Jon Huntsman in third place.

The outcome was not unexpected giving Romney's wide lead in the polls. All attention will now turn to South Carolina, which has acted as a litmus test for nominee candidates in recent times.

Campaign manager Jim Messina lays out the various paths that President Obama can take to win the presidential election in November.

Obama touts economic growth

2012-01-08T19:34:00.000-08:00

President Barack Obama pushes Republicans to help him grow the economy after favorable reports in the job market showing brisk growth.

In the GOP primary race, prominent conservatives are calling for voters to rally around a single conservative candidate to prevent Mitt Romney from gaining too much momentum.

The New Hampshire race is Romney's to lose, but he should face a very tough contest in South Carolina. If conservatives to rally together, they can beat Romney in the southern state, and that could turn the whole primary around.

Many candidates are PACs are reportedly launching negative TV ad campaigns targeting the former Massachusetts governor.

Apply to become an Obama Organizing Fellow!

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Sierra Club thanks Obama for toxic mercury standards

2011-12-22T19:50:00.000-08:00

A TV ad from the Sierra Club praises President Barack Obama for his recent regulation limiting the amount of toxic mercury that industry can release into the environment. Mercury contamination causes brain damage and is particularly dangerous for fetuses and young children.

The new regulation is the first ever standard for mercury pollution and it will significantly curb current practices.

Obamas send Christmas card, Palin attacks

2011-12-22T07:07:00.000-08:00

The White House sent out the Obama Christmas card featuring First Dog Bo relaxing by a cozy fire place outlined with what looks like holly, ivy and ribbons.. Nearby is a table decorated with poinsettias and wrapped gifts.

Strangely, Sarah Palin thought the card was inappropriate and did not emphasize Christmas traditions like "family, faith and freedom." Her comments are reminiscent of the meme in conservative media that there is a "war on Christmas" being waged by the left.

Palin must not be aware that there is a long tradition as well of featuring pets and other animals in Christmas cards as a Google image search reveals.

Is Mitt Romney really more electable?

2011-12-18T20:46:00.000-08:00

The Republican nomination race is now turning strongly toward the question of electability and most pundits are pointing toward former governor Mitt Romney as the most electable hopeful.

Romney consistently performs better than the other candidates in polls against President Barack Obama. However, many GOP strategists have wondered whether Romney can really motivate the Republican base to get out the vote.

Predicting voter turnout is problematic especially with so much time to before the general election. If Romney is unable to ignite the base can he hope to get the turnout needed to defeat Obama?

Some polls are suggesting that Romney is not so popular among the most reliable voters in the Republican Party.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/151547/Gingrich-Running-Strong-Traditionally-Reliable-Voters.aspx

“We’re Here to Mark the End of This War”

2011-12-12T19:02:00.000-08:00

President Obama with the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki talk about the final pullout of combat troops from Iraq. The U.S. will have no bases in the country but will maintain a rather large diplomatic corps with plenty of security due to the situation there.

The president is making good on one of his most noteworthy campaign promises from the 2008 election.

Obama on 60 Minutes

2011-12-11T17:35:00.001-08:00

President Barack Obama makes his case for a second term on 60 Minutes (CBS). He notes that economy was so badly damaged during the George W. Bush administration that fixing it will take more than one term and maybe even more than two terms.

What he's saying is correct as even many conservative economic experts have admitted. Still, a tough economy will make for a tough reelection campaign for the president.

President Obama and family during taping of upcoming Christmas show.

2011-12-09T20:58:00.001-08:00

In recent speeches and public comments, President Barack Obama has embraced the Occupy movement. He is developing his campaign as one in which he champions the cause of the 99%.

He even characterized the overall 2012 election as a "make or break" time for the middle class.

The Occupy movement has been kicked out of most of its encampments, but it has shifted its focus in a number of ways. Recently different groups launched an effort to occupy foreclosed homes. In some areas, the movement is reoccupying areas from which they were expelled or they are choosing new areas to encamp.

Obama may be able to benefit from the goodwill of the group if he is seen as advocating for their cause. While he focused more on "uniting" the country in his first campaign, his efforts have not borne much fruit. Republicans continue to obstruct any progress with a record number of filibusters in the senate.

Many people who supported the president the first time around also support the Occupy movement, so there should be enough opportunities for cooperation between the two sides.

Obama Christmas Store

2011-12-04T17:54:00.001-08:00

Need some holiday gifts, ornaments and accessories? Try the Obama Store at:

http://store.barackobama.com/?source=homepage-holidayshopping

You can purchase items like Obama-themed wrapping paper:

$10

Wrapping Paper

$40

Rhodium Ball Ornament

$15

2012 Calendar

The gift items are union made in America and they go to help the Obama campaign and, by extension, all Democrats and progressive independents who will benefit from the campaign's coattails.

Bo Button Combo

Obama in Hawai'i for FTA talks

2011-11-12T20:54:00.001-08:00

President Obama speaks at the APEC conference about the formation of the Trans Pacific Partnership free trade agreement (TPP FTA).

The nations involved in the negotiations currently include Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States and Vietnam.

Cain feels brotherly love for Koch brothers

2011-11-04T16:23:00.000-07:00

Herman Cain says the Koch brothers are his 'brothers from another mother' in answer to his opponents linking him with the pair of corporate political contributors. The statement may end up hurting his chances with independents who dislike the Supreme Courts corporate personhood ruling and the return of unlimited (and anonymous) corporate contributions for federal elections.

In other news, a new poll shows President Obama well ahead of GOP rivals in the important swing state of Pennsylvania: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/191625-poll-obama-leads-all-republicans-in-pennsylvania

More on Cain

2011-10-27T11:58:00.000-07:00

The Herman Cain flurry could survive according to some analysts because the Georgia-based candidate just has the right type of appeal at the right time. Cain might continue to attract support even though there are signs that he still isn't taking his campaign seriously.

Although it is getting late in the game, Cain still does not have a serious operation set up in any of the early states. He's still doing paid speaking engagements and many people still think he's in the race to promote his brand more than anything else.

However, Cain has started to hire new staff including Steve Grubbs, the new chairman of his Iowa effort and a former chair of the state Republican party. What makes Cain resonate with GOP voters may be the very same qualities that make him seem outlandish to others. His main support seems to come from the Tea Party segment of the party and his "outsider" style and "tell it like it is" manner of speaking have strong appeal with that group.

Ron Paul holds many of the positions as Cain including a flat tax plan, but in comparison to the latter, Paul comes across as boring and cerebral. With Tea Party voters the last thing one wants to convey is an aura of the "intellectual elite."

We'll have to see how Cain's poll number hold up over the next few debates as his opponents concentrate more attacks in his direction.

The impact of Occupy Wall Street

2011-10-20T18:29:00.000-07:00

The Occupy Wall Street movement has exploded across the United States and to countries all over the world. Generally speaking, Republicans have reviled the movement with some exceptions. Democrats, however, are much more receptive to the protests.

The overwhelmingly Democratic Los Angeles city council, for example, voted to support the local Occupy movement.

Even President Obama gave a mild endorsement when he empathized with Occupy Wall Street's cause.

Whether the Occupy movement can help Democrats win elections though is still a matter of contention. Can they have an influence similar to that of the Tea Party for Republicans?

A lot will depend on whether the movement sees the advantage of leveraging the energy of followers toward winning elections.

At the very least, the Occupy demonstrations, should help raise awareness, especially among young people, of how we got into such a terrible economic mess. The great leap in economic disparity over the last few decades did not come about by accident.

Maybe that knowledge alone may be enough to motivate people toward seeking change in the voting booth.

The Herman Cain Train

2011-10-17T13:35:00.000-07:00

Although it's still very early in the nomination process, Herman Cain is now firmly ahead of the GOP pack creating the possibility of a presidential election involving two black men.

If a fiction writer just five years ago suggested this scenario for 2012, they probably would not have been taken seriously. Again, it's early, but how did this come about and does Cain actually stand a chance of winning the nomination?

Well, the Republicans have been moving toward more diverse candidates for some time now. First we had Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana who campaigned around the same time as Obama during the presidential nomination race. In 2010, we witnessed successful GOP candidates like Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, an Asian Indian American, and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, a Cuban American.

Cain's political views also happen to not anger too severely either of the two main factions of the Republican Party, the mainstream and the Tea Party.

He is likeable and a good in-person campaigner. In fact, people first started taking note of him during straw polls when candidates angle for votes face-to-face with party activists.

He has also easily won most if not all the presidential debates.

Cain is not shy about courting the Tea Party either. In a recent YouTube video, Cain says that he was thinking like a Tea Party member long before the group even came into being.

Whether or not, the "Cain train" can continue to dominate the nomination race will depend on a number of factors. The most important one is probably whether or not the Tea Party will fully embrace the ex-Godfather's Pizza magnate.

Should be interesting, and entertaining, to watch events over the next several months.

A revealing chart

2011-08-23T21:20:00.000-07:00

The chart below shows the gross internal debt in the U.S. from 1920 to 2010. It is one of many indicators that show the economic predicament of the country and how it really cannot be connected to President Obama. Internal debt is the money owned to lenders that are based within the country. It includes the federal and other government debts that is owned to American lenders.

However, it does not include the external debt owned to foreign lenders, which is less around 94% of GDP.

Many people make the mistake of thinking that internal debt is not so bad as external debt. While this may be the case when things are running smoothly, it is not the case if there is trouble paying the debt. In the latter situation, it is the American financial system that gets hit hardest with high internal debt. Both the Great Depression and Japan's "lost decade" were due more to internal debt rather than external debt.

As you can see in the chart, internal debt was high before the start of the Great Depression in 1929. It soared even higher as Americans tried to borrow their away out of the economic malaise. However, this only led to the market meltdown of 1937-8 in which America sunk to the lowest levels of the Great Depression.

You can also see that in modern times, American internal debt began rising again in the Reagan years and has not abated ever since. Americans are completely addicted to borrowing at the governmental level, business level and especially at the consumer level.

By the time Obama came into office, he had inherited a huge deficit. And the need for economic stimulus made it difficult not to borrow even more money.

Economy, Congress and Obama

2011-08-22T16:58:00.000-07:00

Many people are of the opinion that the 2012 election will go bad for Obama if the economy isn't doing well. However, the polls don't really indicating this so far.

While it is true that presidents usually get the blame for the economy this is not always the case. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was reelected during the darkest days of the Great Depression after failing to have solved the country's economic woes in his first four years.

The reason FDR did so well is that people by that time were well aware that it was more than decade of Republican policy that had caused the economic mess. In the same way, polls are indicating that the American voter does not blame Obama for the current state of the economy.

Now, it is true that people are not happy with his handling of the economy, but this is not too surprising. The public expects nothing less than positive, if not miraculous, results so it really would not matter who was in power now.

The simple truth is that the economic woes facing the country are deeply entrenched and will defy any simple solution. Just as in the Great Depression, it took many years to unravel more than a decade of failed policy.

However, today, we are reeling from nearly three decades of easy money policy. Bill Clinton was able to dent this policy, but only on the governmental level. In the world of finance and Federal Reserve policy, the Clinton economists did not differ all that much from the Republican ones.

The big difference between FDR's time and now is that the people then had come to the full conclusion that Republicans were to blame for the Great Depression. Today, there are still many doubters. We can see this by the fact that Democrats control the House of Representatives.

In FDR's day, he won his first term with an overwhelming majority that was not just Democratic but was also progressive. And when he was reelected, Congress became even more strongly Democrat!

The makeup in Congress allowed FDR to take charge and restructure a badly-damaged economy. While Obama can win in 2012, it may not mean much if he doesn't have a friendly Congress to help him with his agenda.

Debt deal looks unlikely

2011-07-24T17:07:00.000-07:00

Despite last ditch efforts by the president to broker a deal on the debt ceiling, a bipartisan agreement now looks hopeless.

Each side is now working on its own plan to reduce the deficit and to temporarily extend the debt ceiling. Pres. Obama wants to extend the debt ceiling until at least 2013.

If the two sides fail to at least temporarily raise the debt ceiling, the country could default on its payments. Many experts predict that this could lead to a meltdown of US treasury investments.

Obama addresses debt and deficit

2011-07-16T19:08:00.000-07:00

President Barack Obama kept the heat up on the Republicans during his weekend video address.

Obama has still said that he does not want to sign a short term extension of the debt ceiling. In an earlier press conference, he said that he would reform Medicare by implementing a means test to determine how much people should pay for medical bills.

The president insists that wealthy American and corporations should pay their fair share of taxes.

Obama rope a dope?

2011-07-12T20:28:00.000-07:00

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell has a rather complex "rope a dope" theory on President Barack Obama's negotiating stance in the debt ceiling-deficit talks.

Currently, Obama's deficit reduction plan goes further than even that suggested by House Speaker John Boehner! We will have to see whether O'Donnell is right about this being Obama luring the GOP into his trap.

It does seem that the tax hikes came out of nowhere sort of like Ali coming off the ropes in his epic fight with Foreman. According to this theory, Obama just has to take a certain position and the GOP will automatically rally against the position.

The fact that Obama is not willing to sign another extension shows that he is ready to call the Republicans bluff. The battle is coming to a head.

Republicans are not any more eager than Democrats to see budget funding dry up. They know that their own patrons will be some of the first to sound off when the subsidy checks don't arrive on time.

Obama, Palin and Bachmann in Iowa on Tuesday

2011-06-25T21:41:00.000-07:00

President Barack Obama and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin will both be in Iowa on Tuesday. Palin is coming for the opening of her new movie, but rumors have been circulating that she use the opportunity to announce her entry into the Republican primary.

Michelle Bachmann will also be in Iowa on that day, so we should expect a lot of press coverage from the state. Bachmann did very well in recent poll coming in just behind Mitt Romney. She will officially announce her candidacy on Tuesday.

The president will be in Iowa promoting American manufacturing -- something that he has been talking about a lot about lately.

No one doubts that the economy is likely to be the issue for the 2012 election. I don't agree with the line of thought that has Obama taking all the blame if the economy sours. In my view, the voters are looking more for answers now rather than thinking of political parties to blame.

Whoever has ideas and a job-creating plan that will appeal to voters will have the best chance of attracting disgruntled voters in my view.

Sarah Palin in Philadelphia during her bus tour (Newscom photo)

Al Gore wants Obama to defend climate change action

2011-06-22T20:32:00.000-07:00

Former vice president Al Gore will be hitting President Barack Obama on climate change in an upcoming article in Rolling Stone magazine.

First of all, Gore comes out an recognizes what Obama has done to reverse previous environmentally-destructive policies. Definitely the president has done quite a lot for green causes even though he has disappointed many on issues like coal and nuclear energy.

In fairness to Obama though, he has always supported "clean" coal along with nuclear energy if the storage problem could be solved. On these issues though the president seems to have capitulated in terms of specifics. For example, while there still is no long-term nuclear waste storage plan, the president is supporting loan guarantees for the building of new nuclear power plants.

One of the problems may be the tremendous pressure the president is facing due to the tough economy. Obama suffered a tough loss in Congress after the 2010 elections with Democrats losing control of the House and losing some important seats in the Senate.

On the subject of climate change, it seems as though the issue has been pushed to the sidelines. In this sense, Gore is right in that Obama no longer seems to publicly recognize climate change as an urgent issue. On the other hand though, Republicans have been denying the science altogether.

What can be done to get climate change back on President Obama's agenda with the UN's climate summit coming up in Durban, South Africa in late November?