tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187Wed, 13 Mar 2013 18:46:22 +0000All-in-one-place political coverage for both the political junkie and the interested observer. Detailed election analysis based on the latest polls, pithy summaries of the political scene, and, oh yes, song parodies, too!http://www.obameter2012.com/noreply@blogger.com (Bob Raymond)Blogger153125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-6395419070948898490Fri, 08 Mar 2013 17:46:00 +00002013-03-08T12:46:51.249-05:00 February was not a fantastic month for President Obama.  Most significantly, he was out pointed on the sequester, this month’s “crisis.”  As January ended, Republicans were starting to consider the idea of embracing the sequester, and in February they formally adopted this strategy.  They felt they had little choice, since negotiating a tax increase of some kind with President Obama was the http://www.obameter2012.com/2013/03/the-month-in-review-february-2013-not.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-5787061675537453097Fri, 08 Mar 2013 13:32:00 +00002013-03-08T12:47:01.957-05:00The jobs report indicates unemployment fell to 7.7%, on the strength of a 236,000 non-farm job increase, better than the consensus estimates.http://www.obameter2012.com/2013/03/breaking-news-solid-job-report-march-7.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-4127384190139170843Tue, 05 Mar 2013 18:49:00 +00002013-03-06T10:20:52.095-05:00The sequester is in play now, so here's a song parody all about it, "Sequester," to the tune of the old Cheap Trick classic, "Surrender"... Boehner told me, yes he told me, “We must cut the debt” Bernanke told me, “Stay away, a stall’s about all you’ll get” Well I had thought Republicans were crazy ‘bout defense Guess not enough to force some common sense Boehner’s not right, Cantor’s not http://www.obameter2012.com/2013/03/song-parady-sequester-march-5-2013.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-4826327048866633784Sun, 24 Feb 2013 23:56:00 +00002013-02-24T18:56:31.715-05:00In case you get bored watching the Oscars tonight, check out these two terrific articles of late.... The first is a quantitative analysis on exactly how many House seats the Republicans have "stolen" via gerrymandering....it's authored by neuroscientist and data-fiend Sam Wang and called "The Great Gerrymander of 2012".... http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/03/opinion/sunday/http://www.obameter2012.com/2013/02/two-excellent-articles-on.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-5445035236451222995Wed, 06 Feb 2013 21:40:00 +00002013-03-04T16:40:19.063-05:00President Obama is clearly feeling his oats.  Gone is the weak-kneed negotiator desperately tacking center/center right in the hopes of finding a blue state plurality.  President Obama 2.0 sets his own agenda, stares down his opponents (it works!) and points a leftward course.  Where has this guy been?  (Easy answer:  same guy, but with post-election mojo fueled by a 52.5% post-election average http://www.obameter2012.com/2013/02/the-month-in-review-january-2013-bo-mo.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-4169449767398169351Mon, 07 Jan 2013 01:05:00 +00002013-01-06T20:05:10.219-05:00 This is the year we have been waiting for:  the votes that define the full judgment on the Steroids Era.  Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmiero have already felt the sting of the abrupt dismissal of their juiced-up HOF stats (at least for now).  And now the poster children of the era, two players who would otherwise lay a viable claim to the titles “Best Player Ever” and “Best Pitcher Ever,” Barry http://www.obameter2012.com/2013/01/my-baseball-hall-of-fame-picks-and_8987.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-30820652739242677Wed, 02 Jan 2013 03:59:00 +00002013-01-01T22:59:29.294-05:00The House just passed the Senate bill, at, 10:58 EST, thereby ending this fiscal cliff crisis, for now. The effort by House conservatives to bring a bill with an amendment adding $300 billion in spending cuts failed when it was clear that not enough Republicans support it to carry the House.  Hours later, the House then passed and "up and down" vote on an unamended Senate vote. So we are safe http://www.obameter2012.com/2013/01/on-to-next-cliff-house-passes-senate.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-6195517240624874838Mon, 31 Dec 2012 21:18:00 +00002012-12-31T16:18:31.160-05:00The House will adjourn at 6:30 PM without voting on the Fiscal Cliff bill, if one exists. Instead, they will vote on whatever the Senate comes up with tomorrow. Of course, this is to avoid voting for a "tax increase"....waiting until tomorrow allows them to vote instead for a "tax decrease," even though there is no substantive difference between the two.  All of the Bush tax cuts expire at http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/12/breaking-newswere-going-over-fiscal.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-1322590362860052661Sat, 08 Dec 2012 22:33:00 +00002012-12-10T10:17:13.751-05:00 Boehner Bursts Into Tears at Fiscal Cliff Press Briefing Washington (AP) -- Speaker of the House John Boehner, apparently overcome with frustration at the pace of “Fiscal Cliff” negotiations, burst into tears at a press briefing this afternoon.  When asked repeatedly to characterize the progress of the talks, Boehner wavered, and then began sobbing, saying “It’s just not fair!  Every other http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/12/boehner-bursts-into-tears-at-fiscal.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-4614247768122748535Fri, 07 Dec 2012 13:51:00 +00002012-12-07T08:51:18.533-05:00The economy added 177,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.7%, despite the presumed adverse effect of Hurricane Sandy.  The new November figures well exceeded projections. No one has asked Mitt Romney to comment.http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/12/breaking-news-upbeat-jobs-report.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Update)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-5062877095674456477Mon, 03 Dec 2012 22:55:00 +00002012-12-03T17:55:38.674-05:00 I can’t solve this Fiscal Cliff problem.  What I can do, though, is write a song parody about it.  This one is to the tune of Tommy James and the Shondells’ classic “Crystal Blue Persuasion”….I call it “Fiscal Cliff Persuasion.” Look over yonder Crunch time for our nation… Tax breaks expiring And sequestration…. But a new day is coming (ooo ooo) Repubs are a’ changing Nordquist’s a’ http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/12/fiscal-cliff-persuasion-december-3-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-3714997196778171877Mon, 03 Dec 2012 22:54:00 +00002012-12-03T17:54:25.975-05:00 No rest for Obama after his re-election…the Petraeus Affair, Gaza Battles, Egypt Power Grabs, Will Susan Rice Be Named Secretary of State…all major headline news and the election is not even a month old.  But looming over it all is the “Fiscal Cliff.” Perhaps you’ve read every "Fiscal Cliff FAQ" out there.  But if not, I’ll try to make this quick… Various temporary tax breaks and benefitshttp://www.obameter2012.com/2012/12/fiscal-cliff-notes-december-3-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-644910730627690672Fri, 16 Nov 2012 16:05:00 +00002012-11-29T16:05:27.365-05:00 No, this is not a song parody on the Rolling Stones’ “Last Time.”  I think I’m just being unduly influenced by the "Crossfire Hurricane” HBO documentary on them last night, which was wild. There is really only one reason I have for doing one last “election post”…and that is, of course, to see who the lucky person is who provides the correct answers to the following three questions: 1)http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/this-could-be-last-post-this-could-be.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-234532944578223980Thu, 08 Nov 2012 01:50:00 +00002012-11-11T10:09:37.700-05:00 It wasn’t as close as any channel covering the election made you think.  The fact that the Presidential election was called so early, at about 11:15 PM EST by all the channels (and they are not allowed to call it before 11:00) is testament enough to the lack of real drama.  I had no doubt at all that Obama was going to win, but if I needed any early clue, it was when NBC called Michigan, http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/post-mortem-no-drama-obama-nate-and-me.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-3661920847932674759Wed, 07 Nov 2012 04:15:00 +00002012-11-06T23:15:41.967-05:00Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/nbc-calls-it-obama-wins-second-term.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-971432566705985909Wed, 07 Nov 2012 03:12:00 +00002012-11-06T22:12:22.752-05:00Wisconsin and New Hampshire called very early, wow...very good for Obama.  Fifteen states to go.  Warren in Mass, Casey in Penn, Donnelley in Indiana....all Democrat Senate wins as expected.  Donnelley is a bitter one for the Republicans, as Mourdock is sunk by his "God's will" rape comments, turning around a race he could/should have won. http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/10-pm-report.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-2451592154224591503Wed, 07 Nov 2012 02:06:00 +00002012-11-06T21:06:17.174-05:00Two "close" Senate races have been called.....Connecticut for Murphy (D) over McMahon and Florida, Nelson (D) over Mack.  Both as I forecast. 9 PM for the Presidency has fallen as I expected, except I was surprised Michigan got called right away.  Michigan at one point was a swing state, and it was the first "close" race to be called. http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/9-pm-est-report.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-2421653854819378242Wed, 07 Nov 2012 01:13:00 +00002012-11-06T20:13:22.225-05:00Nothing surprising as yet, all the 8 PM closings were called as predicted.  We're clearing out all the obvious one so that as the night goes on we're focused on the swing states. New Jersey is obviously going to be different in terms of calling the state...normally it would have been called for Obama but obviously nothing in New Jersey is ordinary. Romney up 82-65 in electoral votes, an http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/810-pm-est-post.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-8830135151851005425Wed, 07 Nov 2012 00:39:00 +00002012-11-06T19:39:16.211-05:00I'm watching NBC for the rest of the night. At 7:30 they called West Virginia for Romney, as I expected.  North Carolina and Ohio join Virginia, Georgia and Alabama as too close to call.  That will change soon for Georgia and Alabama, but the first three will go quite some time. South Carolina becomes the first state to be called on a delayed basis....polls closed at 7 PM EST, but NBC just http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/730-report.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-4994895602420961106Wed, 07 Nov 2012 00:03:00 +00002012-11-06T19:03:48.856-05:00CNN calls Vermont for Obama and Kentucky for Romney...no surprise.  I thought they might wait to call Kentucky.  Not enough to call South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana or Alabama, as I expected.   All will go for Romney, perhaps within the hour...http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/7-pm-report.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Update)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-8989869556532048292Tue, 06 Nov 2012 13:26:00 +00002012-11-06T08:26:21.626-05:00 I give you one last pre-election post….a combined brief Daily Dash with a song parody.  There were, indeed, a slew of new national and swing state polls yesterday, but nothing to shake my predictions. Obama’s national lead grew from 0.8 to 1.1 points.  On the other hand, the GOP will leap all over a slight tightening of swing state polls in Wisconsin, Iowa and Virginia, chalking it up to “http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/song-parodyfour-am-in-ohio-november-6.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-7400406669401549268Tue, 06 Nov 2012 12:52:00 +00002012-11-06T07:52:28.702-05:00The tiny hamlet in New Hampshire, traditionally the first voters in America, has spoken.  Ten voters cast their votes at midnight, five for Obama, five for Romney.  They've never had a tie before! http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/breaking-news-dixville-notch-results.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Update)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-5466360297127419548Mon, 05 Nov 2012 16:24:00 +00002012-11-05T18:43:27.225-05:00 At long last, the Election is upon us (well, one more day)…time for my predictions!  Back in 2008 P.B. (Pre Blog), I did pretty well.  In the Presidential race I got 48 out of 50 states correct, missing Nevada and Indiana as they snuck into Obama’s column.  I said Obama would get 52.8% of the vote and he actually received 52.9%.  I managed to call all 35 Senatorial races correctly, sweating http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/my-predictions-obama-will-win-303-235.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-1515438949446878616Sun, 04 Nov 2012 21:31:00 +00002012-11-04T21:56:32.020-05:00 Not much change from yesterday despite a number of new polls.  Everything still lines up for Obama.  He edged up in the national polls from a 0.5 to 0.8 point lead.  This is the average of 13 polls within the last several days.  Obama leads in 7 of them, is tied in 5 (including the Republican leaning Rasmussen) and is losing only one, the Gallup poll, which suspended it’s daily tracking 6 days http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/daily-dashno-late-shift-to-romney.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-5558814052732159018Sun, 04 Nov 2012 15:15:00 +00002012-11-04T10:15:56.837-05:00 Susan passes on this quite entertaining and informative video on presidential elections….there is nothing new under the sun… http://vimeo.com/52193421 Betsy sends along a hysterical set of “Romney Storm Tips”… 1.   If your home is in the path of Sandy, evacuate to your second or third home immediately. 2.   If your home sustains damages from Sandy, ask your parents for money to fix http://www.obameter2012.com/2012/11/some-entertainment-as-we-await-big-day.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Tom)0