oh you beauty

Liverpool Chances Created 2012-13

2013-05-24T14:52:00.000-04:00

A quick graph via a request from the comments section in this post, and compared to the total chances created in 2011-12 to further illustrate Liverpool's progress in attack.

Premier League only, as that's all I can find stats for. All totals via Who Scored.

A few notes:

• Liverpool created 66 more chances this season, and that's after having to replace the players who created the third-, fourth-, and fifth-, and seventh-most chances last season.

• Four teams created more chances than Liverpool in 2011-12: City, Tottenham, United, and Arsenal. No team created more than Liverpool this season; Tottenham was second with 510.

• Chances created per goal in 2011-12: 10.26. Chances created per goal in 2012-13: 7.72.

• Six of Liverpool's top-seven chances creators this season were English.

• Gerrard created 64 more chances this season than last season, the same amount Suarez created through all of last season. Suarez created 26 more, Johnson created 25 more, Downing created 10 more. Enrique created 10 fewer.

• Henderson created one more chance this season compared to last, despite vastly fewer minutes. He started 31 matches in 2011-12 and appeared in six as a substitute. He started 16 this season, and came on as a sub in 14.

Top 10 LFC Goals 2012-13

2013-05-24T09:05:00.000-04:00

Another yearly tradition, although it's not as if there aren't a plethora of outstanding video editors – which there weren't when I started this tradition. None the less, you can't argue with tradition. And it was a good year for goals, in contrast to, say, 2011-12 or 2010-11.

10) Bale OG 1-2 Spurs: This will never not be funny. It might well be my favorite goal on the list. Pow. Right in the kisser.
9) Sterling 1-0 Sunderland: The next three goals make this list more for the assists than the strikes, not to take anything away from the strikes. But Suarez's assist is even more impressive than Sterling's finish, taken without even looking up, knowing where the defenders are and where Sterling's run is going. But Sterling's strike is worth the price of admission as well, clever enough to wait for the keeper to commit then perfectly lobbed over his head.
8) Sturridge 3-1 Fulham: Similar to the previous goal in both pass and finish, but with each of even higher quality. Coutinho can create through balls with the outside of his foot better than most players can with their instep; watching them will never get old. And Mark Schwarzer made Sturridge's attempt much more difficult than Mignolet did for Sterling. Also a reminder that Daniel Sturridge's right foot is supposedly his weaker foot.
7) Suarez 3-0 Sunderland: Usually, "Hollywood pass" is a disparaging term. Not here. That ball from Gerrard is 1000% Hollywood and 1000% perfect, directly in line for Suarez's run, then well-controlled into the back of the net. And let's give some credit to Downing's run, which wholly removed Cuellar from the play.
6) Şahin 2-1 West Brom: Count the passes. There are 11 of them, including the throw-in, in less than 25 seconds, almost all one- or two-touch except for Suso's mazy dribble. Liverpool went forward, sideways, backward, and forward again to carve West Brom open for the late winner, and it's not as if Albion players stood off, pressing each player in possession. Honestly, I expected a lot more of these goals when Rodgers was named manager.
5) Johnson 3-0 Gomel: Woof. Chest control, one hop, then an unstoppable volley with his weaker foot.
4) Enrique 3-0 Swansea: Liquid football, tearing through Swansea's defense. I'm still not sure how Sturridge, Enrique, Coutinho, and Suarez found space in the compressed left channel. Also, even more surprisingly, Enrique has a right foot! Sometimes.
3) Suarez 2-1 City (h) / Suarez 2-3 Udinese (tied): Suarez scored five direct free kicks this season, which is a mind-boggling total. The three against Wigan and Zenit were slightly fortunate, but these were absolutely unbelievable.
2) Gerrard 2-1 City (a): He's still got it. All of it.
1) Suarez 1-1 Newcastle: Magic.

Incidentally, the kind of goal are one from a corner, two free kicks, two team-wide passing moves, two shots from distance, and four "direct" goals. I guess that not only are Liverpool more potent when direct, they also score "better" goals.

Honorable Mention:
• Johnson 1-0 West Ham
• Sturridge 3-0 Newcastle (Coutinho assist)
• Coutinho 1-0 QPR
• Downing 1-0 Anzhi
• Sturridge 1-1 Fulham

Liverpool Results Comparison [Infographic]

2013-05-23T09:13:00.001-04:00

First, the usual way of looking at this (see also: the 2011-12, 2010-11, and 2009-10 versions):

versus club:
• City (1st --> 2nd) = +1
• United (2nd --> 1st) = -2
• Arsenal (3rd --> 4th) = -2
• Tottenham (4th --> 5th) = +2
• Newcastle (5th --> 16th) = +1
• Chelsea (6th --> 3rd) = -4
• Everton (7th --> 6th) = -4
• Fulham (9th --> 12th) = +6
• West Brom (10th --> 8th) = -3
• Swansea (11th --> 9th) = +3
• Norwich (12th --> 11th) = +2
• Sunderland (13th --> 17th) = +3
• Stoke (14th --> 13th) = 0
• Wigan (15th --> 18th) = +5
• Villa (16th --> 15th) = -1
• QPR (17th --> 20th) = +3
• Relegated/Promoted 1 (Bolton 18th --> Reading 19th) = +1
• Relegated/Promoted 2 (Blackburn 19th --> Southampton 14th) = -2
• Relegated/Promoted 3 (Wolves 20th --> West Ham 10th) = -2

Notably better against Fulham, Wigan, Swansea, Sunderland, and QPR. Marginally better against Spurs, Norwich, and City. Liverpool's improvement mostly came against middle-of-the-pack or bottom-of-the-table teams, as well as two sides that Liverpool hope to challenge next season (Spurs and City).

However, Liverpool were notably worse against Chelsea, Everton, West Brom, United, and Arsenal. Four teams who finished above Liverpool and one who finished directly below. Oh, and despite Liverpool's good record against sides below them, Liverpool took three fewer points from this season's promoted sides than last season's relegated sides. That's less good.

versus league place:
• vs 1st = 1 to 0 = -1
• vs 2nd = 1 to 2 = +1
• vs 3rd = 3 to 2 = -1
• vs 4th = 1 to 1 = 0
• vs 5th = 3 to 3 = 0
• vs 6th = 6 to 2 = -4
• vs 7th = 6 to n/a = -6 (combined with 8th)
• vs 8th = n/a to 0 = -6 (combined with 7th)
• vs 9th = 0 to 4 = +4
• vs 10th = 3 to 4 = +1
• vs 11th = 1 to 6 = +5
• vs 12th = 4 to 6 = +2
• vs 13th = 1 to 1 = 0
• vs 14th = 1 to 3 = +2
• vs 15th = 1 to 3 = +2
• vs 16th = 4 to 4 = 0
• vs 17th = 3 to 4 = +1
• vs 18th = 3 to 6 = +3
• vs 19th = 4 to 4 = 0
• vs 20th = 6 to 6 = 0

Again, remarkably worse against the sides directly above and below them in the table. But Liverpool either bettered or equalled their points total against 9th through 20th place. More confirmation that Brendan Rodgers' side really were flat-track bullies.

For a different look, here's the chronological version comparing the last two campaigns:

Those first five games. Ugh. That led to a five-point gap on last season's total, a gap this season's Liverpool didn't close until the start of the new year, not passing the 2011-12 points mark until early March.

In Liverpool's defense, only QPR had a harder first five games. The average final place of Liverpool's first five opponents was 6.4, facing the 8th, 2nd, 4th, 17th, and 1st-placed sides. It was 6.0 for QPR, who played the 9th, 11th, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th-placed sides. Every other club faced an average of 8th place or worse.

Last season, Liverpool played the 13th, 3rd, 18th, 14th, and 4th placed sides in the first five games, an average of 10.4. Which is almost exactly this season's mean. And took seven points compared to this season's two. Not that it helped much in last season's final points tally.

Incidentally, the teams with the easiest starts? Chelsea, who played the 18th, 19th, 16th, 20th, and 13th-placed sides, and Tottenham, who played the 16th, 8th, 11th, 19th, and 20th-placed sides. Here's the full order, from toughest to easiest, if you're curious.

Liverpool's tough start was made worse by being the first five matches for Liverpool's new manager, implementing a new system. That doesn't excuse the disappointments that followed, nor explain why Liverpool finished 12 points behind the Champions League places. Yes, Liverpool probably would have struggled in those matches regardless of opponent. And yes, the schedule obviously evens out over the course of the season. But had Liverpool had an easier start, or had Liverpool managed to win its two draws in the first five matches, it could have built momentum that Liverpool weren't able to build until later in the season. Who knows what earlier momentum could have done for the side's progress. Confidence begets confidence, good results beget more good results.

At least, unlike last year's side, Liverpool ended the season in excellent form. Only Arsenal and Chelsea took more points than Liverpool over the last 10 matches of the season. And that's why we're optimistic – probably too optimistic, knowing precedent – about Liverpool's chances for next season.

Liverpool Goals Scored and Conceded 2012-13

2013-05-21T09:54:00.001-04:00

Compare these totals to those from last season.

The headline stat is a simple one. Liverpool scored 24 more goals in the Premier League this season, and conceded just three more. In all competitions, Liverpool averaged 1.81 goals per game and a goal every 49.6 minutes. It was 1.55 goals per game and a goal every 58.1 minutes last season.

Liverpool scored more goals away from Anfield, which rarely happens, but also conceded many, many more goals away from Anfield. Only one side conceded fewer league goals at home than Liverpool: Manchester City. Seven sides conceded fewer league goals away from home.

Liverpool also were notably worse from set plays this season, both in scoring and conceding goals. Last year, 21.5% of Liverpool's goals scored and 24.1% of Liverpool's goals conceded came from free kicks and corners. This season, 19.4% of Liverpool's goals scored and 28.1% of Liverpool's goals conceded came from set plays (corners, free kicks, as well as one conceded from direct throw-in against – who else – Stoke).

That's worrisome. Liverpool conceded a negligibly smaller proportion of headed goals this season (21.9% compared to 22.2% last season), but also scored far fewer headed goals as well (14.3% compared to 18.9% last season). We've long been aware that Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool isn't exceptionally strong in the air (*TRANSFER WINDOW KLAXON*).

In the past, I've posted the next image along with the results comparison infographic – which is coming later in the week – but it seems more fitting here. The following is Liverpool's league results ordered by goals scored.

Liverpool kept clean sheets in 16 of the 38 league matches, but conceded one goal in just five, drawing three and winning two. They conceded two goals in 13 matches, and three goals in four.

Compare that to last season (scroll down), where Liverpool conceded once in 17 league matches, and conceded twice in just five. But kept only 12 clean sheets. Liverpool's regression in goals conceded this season has come from conceding a second, and sometimes a third, in far too many games. Especially in the five 2-2 draws, against City (twice), Arsenal, Everton, and Chelsea. Liverpool conceded the final goal, the goal that led to two points dropped, in four of those five games. Those eight points alone would have gone a long way in making up the gap between 5th-place Tottenham.

The increase in green also shows where Liverpool have improved. Liverpool won just one match by a 1-0 scoreline last season; they won three this season. Last season, this chart only went up to four goals. This season, Liverpool scored four in two league matches, five in three matches, and six in one match.

But Liverpool often needed that increase in goals, winning just four matches when scoring two or fewer goals, and just once away from home. It's now been 27 months since Liverpool won an away league match by a 1-0 scoreline, since beating Chelsea 1-0 at Stamford Bridge in February 2011.

Over the course of the season, Liverpool have proven they can consistently score goals. Now, they need to consistently stop conceding goals, and constantly win narrow games, especially against the sides ahead of them in the table.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 QPR

2013-05-20T10:08:00.002-04:00

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h), Arsenal (h), Manchester United (h), Norwich (a), Stoke (h), Reading (h), Everton (a), Newcastle (h), Chelsea (a), Wigan (h), Swansea (a), Tottenham (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Aston Villa (h), Fulham (h), Stoke (a), QPR (a), Sunderland (h), Manchester United (a), Norwich (h), Arsenal (a), Manchester City (a), West Brom (h), Swansea (h), Wigan (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Aston Villa (a), West Ham (h), Reading (a), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (a), Everton (h), Fulham (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.

It's dangerous to take too much away from the last match of the campaign, with little to play for and against already relegated opposition. However, pretty much every section of the above infographic confirms Liverpool's dominance. Not that that's stopped them from throwing away points earlier in the season, mind.

Still, 536 completed passes (and 607 attempted) were the most since the 5-0 win against Norwich 16 matches ago. 66.4% possession was the most since that Norwich match as well, only topped by the two fixtures against Norwich and equalling the possession totals at QPR and against Sunderland. 28 shots were the most since hitting that mark at Reading six matches ago, and was the third-highest total of the season (behind 35 against Swansea and 29 against Villa). Liverpool completed more than twice as many passes as QPR, took almost three times as many shots, monopolized the ball, and really should have won by more than a single goal.

That Liverpool won by just a single goal really was yesterday's only disappointment. Well, that and Carragher's shot cannoning off the post in the 62nd minute. But Liverpool were wasteful, Liverpool were too content to shoot from distance, and too many of Liverpool's shots were blocked by QPR defenders. Which, although it hasn't happened much over the last few months, have been recurring problems this season.

Liverpool's 14 blocked shots were a high for the season; only the two matches against Aston Villa saw Liverpool's opponents block more than 10. Redknapp's sole desire yesterday was to prevent the type of humiliation his side endured in the reverse fixture at Loftus Road, where Liverpool scored three in opening half an hour against QPR's wide-open defense. Anything QPR managed to create in Liverpool's half was a bonus, and the utter paucity of Liverpool tackles and interceptions demonstrates just how small a priority attacking was for QPR. And on the whole, Redknapp succeeded, evident in the number of blocked shots, the number of shots Liverpool took from outside the box, and the copious tackles and interceptions just outside QPR's box. Unfortunately for Redknapp and QPR, they had already been humiliated by the events over the course of the season.

Coutinho took Liverpool's first four shots, more a finisher rather than creator yesterday, while Sturridge didn't take one until the 45th minute. Compare where Sturridge received the ball yesterday to his passes received at Fulham; operating much deeper and often with his back to goal. Against Fulham, Liverpool players created four chances for Sturridge inside the penalty box, but all three of the chances created for Sturridge yesterday came from outside the box, which led to two shots off-target and one shot blocked. Yesterday, against a packed defense, was the sort of match that Suarez often thrives in, although, admittedly, we saw similar attacking struggles against West Ham and Reading before his suspension. Without him for six more fixtures, Liverpool will need to improve against these sorts of parked bus back lines. Not everyone's as bad as QPR.

At least we can't credit Liverpool's lack of goals to an offensively-lacking center midfield. The worry about the Henderson/Lucas pairing was that they'd be functional and diligent, but unable to create enough against determined defending. Henderson and Lucas did wholly monopolize the ball as expected, jointly completing 168 of 183 passes (91.8%), but they also created five chances and completed 50 of 58 passes in the attacking third (86.2%). Which are excellent signs for the pairing in the future, even if there's still the caveat that yesterday's opponents posed next to no challenge.

Liverpool 1-0 QPR

2013-05-19T13:43:00.002-04:00

Goals:
Coutinho 23'

Acta est fabula, plaudite!

No, that wasn't Jamie Carragher's testimonial. That happened a few years ago. Although, for all of QPR's threat, it might as well have been. He leaves with yet another clean sheet, and his 398th win in 737 appearances for Liverpool. And had his 62nd minute shot been two inches to the right, a goal that would have imploded Anfield.

It was only Liverpool's third 1-0 win in the league, following home victories against Reading and Southampton in October and December. But it never felt like a 1-0 win, with QPR offering next to no threat and Liverpool comfortable throughout. The margin of victory probably should have been more, which is a phrase I haven't written in a while.

There was less experimentation than with last week's XI, but Liverpool still found a place for Jordon Ibe, the seventh Academy player to make his debut this season, starting ahead of Shelvey and Borini on the left. And from the opening whistle, Ibe demonstrated the same strong running and intent he's shown for the u21s this season. Liverpool should have taken the lead within two minutes, from a corner no less, when QPR cleared Coutinho's header from about a foot behind the goal line, unseen by both referee and linesman. But goal line technology would ruin the game, right Sepp?

At least Liverpool didn't make us wait too much longer for the opening goal, unsurprisingly scored by the same player, who was the hub of everything good. The Brazilian received the ball from Ibe 25 yards out and whistled an unstoppable low shot past the despairing Rob Green, just rewards for the way Liverpool started the match.

But despite continued dominance, Liverpool couldn't find the second. Coutinho pulled the strings while Johnson and Enrique rampaged forward at will, but Sturridge couldn't make the same impact he had against Fulham, mostly well marshaled by Hill and Onouha. After halftime, Enrique, Ibe, Downing, and that aforementioned Carragher blast nearly extended the lead, Borini and Suso replaced Ibe and Coutinho, and Green saved shots from Suso and Enrique. Otherwise, the highlight was Carragher's substitution with five minutes to play, going off for a deserved standing ovation, followed by a tear-inducing low, slow version of You'll Never Walk Alone.

And thus ends Liverpool's season, and Jamie Carragher's 23-year affiliation with the club.

61 points is Liverpool's highest total since Rafa Benitez's final season four campaigns ago. It's nine points more and one place higher more than last season. Liverpool scored 29 more league goals this season, and conceded just three more. A lot of credit for that last stat goes to Jamie Carragher; Liverpool let in just 12 goals in the 15 league games he played since Norwich on January 19, keeping eight clean sheets.

There is obviously still much work to be done, not least in replacing a Liverpool legend. And I caution that we felt similar optimism at the end of the 2010-11 season, when Dalglish as caretaker seemed to put Liverpool on the right path, before Liverpool's summer transfer dealings took Liverpool off that path.

Nonetheless, over the second half of the season, we've seen Liverpool improve, in all areas and phases of the game. That improvement is a definite cause for optimism, and that optimism that will make the next three months a long, eagerly anticipated wait.

Liverpool v QPR 05.19.13

2013-05-18T09:58:00.000-04:00

11am ET, not live on the US. Live on Fox Soccer 2Go, and delayed at 6:30pm ET on FSC.

Last season, Fox televised every match on the final day other than the one on espn2. There were matches on Speed, on Fuel TV, on pretty much every cable station Fox owned. This season? Nothing extra; just the standard three televised matches. Because what the fans want isn't worth shit now that Fox lost the PL contract. Good riddance, you terrible, terrible network.

Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (a) 12.30.12
2-3 QPR (a) 03.21.12
1-0 Liverpool (h) 12.10.11
2-1 Liverpool (a) 02.11.96

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Fulham (a); 0-0 Everton (h); 6-0 Newcastle (a)
QPR: 1-2 Newcastle (h); 0-1 Arsenal (h); 0-0 Reading (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 23; Sturridge 10; Gerrard 9; Henderson 5; Agger, Downing 3; Coutinho, Enrique, Skrtel, Sterling 2; Borini, Cole, Johnson, Şahin 1
QPR: Remy 6; Taarabt 5; Zamora 4; Cisse 3; Jenas, Mackie, Townsend 2; Bothroyd, Granero, Hoilett, Nelsen, Wright-Phillips 1

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Carragher Enrique
Henderson Lucas
Downing Coutinho Shelvey
Sturridge

All's well that ends?

As has seemingly been written around this time in each of the last four years, it's been a long season. At least, in comparison to the previous campaign, it's gotten better as the season's gone on. There has been obvious progression, especially after Sturridge and Coutinho joined the club. Is that enough to make up for the lack of trophies, last season's sole consolation?

Tomorrow's focus will rightfully be on Jamie Carragher, who'll captain the side in his 737th appearance for Liverpool, 508th in the Premier League. His final appearance for Liverpool. When Carragher hangs up his boots, he'll have played in 81.8% of the 901 Liverpool games since he made his debut against Middlesbrough in January 1997. All the tributes the club have planned for tomorrow, all the fully deserved complimentary articles featured on the official site don't come close to encapsulating what Carragher's meant to this club, what Carragher's done for this club. It's imperative he's sent off with the best possible result, and "imperative" isn't a word I use lightly.

Otherwise, the major question is whether we'll see more experimentation. Last week's 3-6-1 trial worked and didn't work; Liverpool were far better when reverting to the more familiar 4-2-3-1 but the benefit was in the experiment, as well as in playing time for the likes of Coates and Wisdom.

Even with little to play for other than pride, I expect there will be fewer changes tomorrow, both in tactics and personnel. Skrtel should return from illness, partnering Carragher in central defense. If Liverpool play three at the back again, I suspect Coates will make way, with the more versatile Wisdom as one of the outside center-backs and Skrtel as the sweeper, but I still don't think that formation's likely. I also wouldn't be opposed to Wisdom starting in place of Glen Johnson, who – more than any other player – has shown the effects of the long season.

One of Henderson, Shelvey, and Borini will probably be the odd man out in attack. Both Henderson and Shelvey can play in central midfield or on the flanks, while Borini's finding his way back to fitness. I suspect that it'll be as Liverpool started the second half against Fulham, with Henderson in a deeper role and Shelvey deployed on the left but often cutting inside. But Henderson and Shelvey's versatility could allow them to switch roles, or one could be left out so the returning Borini can receive more playing time after spending the majority of the season injured.

Otherwise, no matter any experimentation, Reina will play, Lucas will play, Coutinho will play, Sturridge will play. Both Downing and Enrique – along with Henderson, two of Rodgers' greatest man-management successes this season – should play. Even in the last match of the season, the lineup still very much writes itself, especially in certain positions.

As for QPR, we'll start with this, as it's still incredibly hilarious.

I genuinely believe Harry will lead QPR to a higher finish than Spurs under AVB.
— talkSPORTDrive (@talkSPORTDrive) November 23, 2012

Not quite.

QPR have won four league matches under Redknapp of the 24 played, and have never been higher than 19th in the table. They'd need to win tomorrow with Reading also losing to West Ham to get out of 20th position. And they're winless in their last eight, with two draws and six losses, further evidence of the overpaid and overhyped side's inability to even pretend at staying in this league. This mercenary side deserves to finish rock bottom.

Julio Cesar, Chris Samba, and Shaun Wright-Phillips will miss tomorrow's match through injury. You'd think Loic Remy also wouldn't play after being arrested on suspicion of rape earlier in the week, but QPR have announced that he's available for selection.

Which means tomorrow's XI will most likely be Green; Boswinga, Onouha, Hill, Traore; Townsend, Jenas, Mbia, Taarabt; Remy, Zamora. But it's not as if Redknapp's wanting for options; Hoilett, Mackie, Granero, Park, and Fabio, among others, have all proven (at least in previous campaigns) that they're decent footballers. Which makes QPR's plight all the more egregious. And all the more hilarious.

I had hoped that QPR would stave off relegation until the final day. It'd have been throughly enjoyable had it been Liverpool who got to swing the sword of Damocles. Still, we'll have to make due with sending Jamie Carragher out in some style, in front of a grateful Anfield appreciative of his 23-year tenure with the club, and appreciative of the small, tentative strides that Liverpool have made over the course of the season.

Visualized: Liverpool 3-1 Fulham

2013-05-13T09:30:00.000-04:00

Liverpool 3-1 Fulham

2013-05-12T13:05:00.001-04:00

Goals:
Berbatov 33'
Sturridge 36' 62' 85'

An unfamiliar formation, lined up in a 3-6-1, and an end-of-season tempo led to Liverpool passing and possession without reward for the first half an hour, an unwelcome reminder of the toothlessness which was all too frequent at the start of the season.

That ended up leading to a Fulham goal against the run of play, another all-too-common occurrence which Liverpool's done well to avoid in recent months. Liverpool still struggle with crosses at the best of times, and when an arguably offside overlapping Sascha Riether was left open by Downing and Henderson, he placed a perfect ball in for Berbatov to nod home, finding space between Wisdom and Carragher with the latter waving for an offside flag that didn't come.

Déjà vu all over again. But déjà vu which didn't last long thanks to Daniel Sturridge. Fulham fans were still celebrating Berbatov's strike when Sturridge deftly controlled Wisdom's ball over the top, danced around Aaron Hughes, and rammed a shot over Schwarzer into the roof of the net. It was more proof that Liverpool's frequently more potent when Liverpool are more direct rather than ponderously trying to pass throw the defense. Which, to Rodgers' credit, is a lesson he's learned over the last few months. Fulham's opener was its first lead in 573 minutes of football. And it lasted all of three minutes.

The rest of the half saw similar to the opening half an hour, highlighted by another Fulham chance from another Riether cross, this time well defended by Wisdom, with Berbatov unable to get a shot on goal after getting in front of the young center-back.

Also to Rodgers' credit, he made a halftime change which markedly improved the side. Enrique replaced Wisdom – who hadn't done poorly – switching back to the default 4-2-3-1 formation with Downing returning to the right wing and Henderson alongside Lucas. And it nearly paid dividends immediately, as Enrique charged down the flank and crossed for Sturridge, who out-jumped Emanuelson but could only sky his free header straight up.

The tactical change completely changed the game, and Liverpool were well on top. The away side were finally able to get multiple players into the box; Coutinho was much more influential, combining well with Sturridge. The striker set up Brazilian's blast in the box, blocked by Hughes, with Shelvey heading the rebound narrowly wide, followed swiftly by a buccaneering run by Johnson around three defenders before a fourth luckily cut out the full-back's cutback. It seemed a matter of time before Liverpool got the go-ahead goal.

Of course, because it's still Liverpool's, they didn't make it easy on themselves. And then we saw the fine margins which separate victory from defeat, and the kind of decisions which make those margins. Fulham could have easily won a penalty on the hour when Ruiz crossed off Lucas' arm from a yard out after Liverpool couldn't clear a corner, waved away by Halsey for ball to hand. It was one of those "seem 'em given," especially when it's Liverpool. A minute later, Fulham should have won a free kick just outside the box when Coates apparently fouled Ruiz on the break, again waved off.

And then, just like that, Liverpool were ahead. A slalom counter down the pitch, Coutinho's slipping shot deflected straight into the path of a just-onside Sturridge, perfectly placed around Schwarzer from eight yards out. It's better to be lucky than good, and it's even better to be lucky and good.

Because, no matter that fortune, Liverpool again refused to make things easy for themselves, as the away side seemed determined to wasted multiple chances by inches. Liverpool could have scored the third goal five times over in the 20 minutes after taking the lead. Sturridge almost immediately got his hat-trick, squandering what looked his easiest chance after robbing Hangeland but then selfishly shooting straight at Fulham's keeper. Five minutes later, thinking only of that possible hat-trick, he again has an effort saved by Schwarzer with both Shelvey and Coutinho open for a tap-in. Shelvey slipped when shooting after controlling Downing's fierce early cross, deflected just wide of the near post with the rest of the goal gaping. Borini soon replaced Shelvey, but in the space of a minute, cannoned a shot off the woodwork after cutting inside from the left, then saw Schwarzer make another excellent save after Sturridge's back heel put him through on goal.

Last season, Fulham would have punished Liverpool's profligacy as so many other sides did. And they almost did today if not for Reina's heroics. Fine margins, and all. First, Reina parried Berbatov's shot after Henderson unbelievably passed the ball straight to him in Liverpool's half. His save from the resulting corner was even better – yes, Liverpool nearly conceded from a corner – somehow tipping Hughes' header around the post. And in the 84th minute, Riise, on as a substitute, was allowed a free kick from 25 yards out, rocketing a shot under the wall that Reina coolly smothered.

But a minute after that, Liverpool finally got that third, and Sturridge got his hat-trick: another incredible throughball from Coutinho, this one chipped with the outside of his foot, with Sturridge beating Schwarzer to the ball and chipping over the on-rushing keeper to nestle into the net. Game over, and with all the last season déjà vu exorcised.

Today saw the peaks and valleys that Daniel Sturridge provides. All three of his goals were outstanding, taken with both his left and right feet. He took seven shots and put five of them on target. He's the fastest to 10 Premiership goals in Liverpool history, needing just 13 games to reach the mark; it took both Torres and Fowler 18. He also cleverly set up outstanding openings for Borini and Downing thanks to smart back-heels when Liverpool were pushing for the needed third.

But he was anonymous until his opening goal – which we can partly blame on the unfamiliar formation – only noticed for wasting an excellent chance in the 26th. And there were those squandered opportunities after scoring his first then second goals. Still, if he's scoring those goals, tallying hat-tricks, not-quite-but-still-kinda winning matches singlehandedly, then it's easy to forgive the selfishness and the misses.

Of course, Liverpool's other January addition played a starring role, again the creative hub, again providing the assists – his fifth and sixth in 10 matches. No player created more chances, no player made more successful attacking third passes, and, surprisingly, no player made more tackles. And some credit goes to Rodgers for making the needed halftime changes, especially in bringing on Enrique, who vastly improved Liverpool's defense.

Today's win is Liverpool's fourth comeback win in the league after conceding the first goal, the third in the last two months. They had just one last season: a 3-1 win over Newcastle at the end of December. And it's the first time this season that Liverpool have won a league game by two goals. Liverpool not only showed the fortitude and resiliency needed to overhaul a setback, helped by mid-game tactical changes, they won a narrow game, scoring the crucial goal to seal the victory in the final minutes rather than hanging on by fingernails.

That's not happened often enough this season. We've rightfully gloated in romps over lesser opponents, the 3-0s, 4-0s, 5-0s, 5-2s, and 6-0s. Today's three points admittedly don't mean anything to Liverpool's league position, but the way those three points were earned mean very much to Liverpool's confidence and progression going forward.

Liverpool at Fulham 05.12.13

2013-05-11T10:09:00.002-04:00

10am ET, not live on TV in the US. Delayed on FSC at 2:30pm, but otherwise, streams.

Last four head-to-head:
4-0 Liverpool (h) 12.22.12
0-1 Fulham (h) 05.01.12
0-1 Fulham (a) 12.05.11
5-2 Liverpool (a) 05.09.11

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Everton (h); 6-0 Newcastle (a); 2-2 Chelsea (h)
Fulham: 2-4 Reading (h); 0-1 Everton (a); 0-1 Arsenal (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 23; Gerrard 9; Sturridge 7; Henderson 5; Agger, Downing 3; Coutinho, Enrique, Skrtel, Sterling 2; Borini, Cole, Johnson, Şahin 1
Fulham: Berbatov 13; Ruiz 5; Sidwell 4; Duff, Kacaniklic, Rodallega 3; Baird 2; Karagounis, Richardson, Riether 1

Referee: Mark Halsey

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Carragher Enrique
Henderson Lucas
Downing Coutinho Borini
Sturridge

At the least, Liverpool will be replacing at least two near ever-present starters for the next two matches. By now, I assume you've read that both Gerrard and Agger have been shut down for the season, the former now the third Liverpool player to undergo shoulder surgery this season, the latter receiving "proactive back injections."

Agger will seemingly be replaced by Skrtel or Coates, and probably by the former. Skrtel's hardly featured since Carragher's return to the XI; his only starts since January were in losses at Zenit and Southampton, plus a 10-minute substitute appearance in last week's derby. But Coates hasn't been seen at all since the 2-3 loss to Oldham in the FA at the end of January. The last time Skrtel started a match that Liverpool won was on January 2, when Liverpool beat Sunderland 3-0. The last time Coates started a match that Liverpool won was the 2-1 FA Cup victory at Mansfield Town four days later. It's been a while.

There also appear to be two options for replacing Gerrard: either Henderson or Shelvey starts with Lucas in midfield. The official site hints that it'll be Shelvey, which would see Liverpool most likely keep the same front four, although Borini could possibly replace Henderson as well. The other options are Henderson in Gerrard's role, with Borini taking his left-sided berth, or with Shelvey as the central attacking midfielder and Coutinho on the left.

With two quasi-meaningless games to play, Rodgers may make more changes – Suso, Wisdom, Assaidi, maybe even Coady for Lucas – to give the young and/or out-of-favor more playing time, but I'd be surprised if Rodgers went that route. Liverpool are still building a side, building a style, and two end-of-season quasi-meaningless games will still help them accomplish that. If handled correctly. It's one thing to allow crucial players needed surgery/treatment with the season basically over, but wholesale lineup changes are quite another entirely.

Fulham are winless in their last six matches, with five losses and a draw. The two goals tallied in the last Saturday's home defeat against to Reading were the club's first goals in more than 300 minutes of football, previously held scoreless in losses to Everton, Arsenal, and Chelsea. Losses which have made them one of three teams to lose four Premier League matches in a row this season, along with Norwich in December and Reading on two separate occasions.

Karagounis and Petric are doubtful, Davies, Dejagah, and Diarra are out injured, and Sidwell is suspended. Given Fulham's problems in central midfield, Karagounis will probably start if at all possible, but if not, it seemingly will have to be Emmanuel Frimpong who partners Eyong Enoh, who's on loan from Ajax. In a pinch, Kieran Richardson can also play in central midfield, but he hasn't started in that position since… Liverpool beat Fulham 4-0 in December. Chris Baird also started in midfield in the reverse fixture, but he hasn't played since February 23, and has signed a pre-contract agreement with West Brom to join them after the season.

Which makes Fulham's most likely XI Schwarzer; Riether, Senderos, Hangeland, Riise; Enoh, Karagounis; Emanuelson, Ruiz, Kacaniklic; Berbatov. As mentioned above, Frimpong, Richardson, or possibly Baird could start in place of Karagounis if need be, while Duff could feature on the flank rather than Emanuelson or Kacaniklic, although the latter two have started more matches recently. Incidentally, two of those suspected starters are ex-Liverpool players: John Arse Riise (I wanna know…) and Alex Kacaniklic. Which always makes me nervous.

We're finally in the home stretch. There are just two matches left in this roller coaster season, where Liverpool struggled at the start and continue to struggle against the top sides, but have also shown massive improvement in both scoring goals and beating teams below them in the table. All season long, we've seen incremental progress. Too incremental in some cases, but progress all the same. No matter how unimportant the next two matches appear, Liverpool still need to finish as strongly as possible to help cement that progress going into next season. A match against as side gasping for air as the season ends, followed by a final match against the side currently in 20th place, seems a good way to do so.

Visualized: Liverpool 0-0 Everton

2013-05-06T09:49:00.000-04:00

Liverpool 0-0 Everton

2013-05-05T11:07:00.001-04:00

Well, that was feeble.

I guess it's somewhat fitting that defenses ruled the day in Carragher's last derby. Everton blocked all of Liverpool's best opportunities, whether through a couple of crucial first-half tackles from Jagielka, Howard standing tall when Coutinho put Sturridge through soon after the interval, or Distin cutting out Gerrard's shot after the captain rounded the keeper in the 74th.

Meanwhile, Liverpool dealt well with Everton's crosses and long balls – restricting Baines, averaging just over three chances created per game, to just one opportunity (none from open play) – and all but two of their set plays. In the first half, Fellaini shinned a shot narrowly wide when wrestling with Carragher. In the second half, Oliver blew for a foul just before Distin bulleted a header past Reina, somewhat karmically mirroring Suarez's non-goal at the end of the match at Goodison.

Americans fans will remember a similar situation from the USA/Slovenia World Cup match in 2010, when Koman Coulibaly chalked off Mo Edu's "winning goal." Oliver had warned Anichebe prior to the set play, and there were subsequently three soft fouls – Anichebe on Enrique and Reina, then Distin climbing on Carragher. Yes, they were soft, but we've seen softer. And we've seen refs stop for similar many, many times. Oliver was calling it back whether or not Distin even made contact with the delivery. I'm obviously biased, but I'm still far angrier at Suarez's goal negated in the reverse fixture for no good reason than Everton fans should be today.

Otherwise, dross, at least in attack. From both sides.

Combined, Liverpool and Everton took 29 shots, but put just five on target. Three from Liverpool, two from Everton. There was only one shot on target in the first half, a slow roller from Mirallas that Reina casually picked up; Liverpool didn't register its first until the 59th minute, again a tame effort, this time from Coutinho straight at Howard.

Liverpool were marginally better in that start to the second half, improving from a first half final third accuracy of 53.3% to 66.7% for the full match, leading to that Sturridge chance smothered by Howard, followed by Sturridge's shot into the side netting followed by a dangerous Enrique cross eluding Downing, capped by Coutinho's shot easily saved. But then, Everton had a couple of half-chances sail well wide before the sides settled back into comfortably numb mediocrity.

Neither team's substitutions changed matters much, whether Borini for Henderson, with Liverpool shifting to 4-4-2, or Jelavic for Mirallas. Coutinho miscued an attempted chip, Gerrard had the aforementioned pass/shot cleared from the six-yard box, and then a knock to Downing forced Rodgers into a switch to 3-5-2, bringing on Skrtel, replicating the second half formation from the previous meeting. Agger glanced a header (really, a shoulder) wide, another dangerous Enrique cross just missed Borini, but Everton ended stronger, racking up set plays which amounted to catching practice for Reina.

This is the way the Carragher ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.

It was the first 0-0 these sides have played since February 2007, the match where Everton threw a fit because Benitez had the temerity to say "When you play against the smaller teams at Anfield you know the game will be narrow" after the match.

Well, today, both sides played like small clubs. Cagey, tentative, and almost wholly lacking in quality. I'm not used to this from Merseyside derbies. Yes, both sides defended well, while Gerrard effectively sprayed Hollywood passes around the pitch, involved in almost every good move Liverpool somehow conjured, but that's about it.

It's no surprise Liverpool used all its scoring up last week. It's this season defined. Far more routs than we're used to, which is nothing to scoff at, but often followed up by disappointment, with Liverpool unable to find the needed goals in the narrow games. Liverpool have now played every team which will finish above it twice. One win, four losses, and seven draws. Seven. 10 points from the 30 available. And yet, somehow Liverpool will finish with a better points total than last season, and probably the season before that as well.

There's at least still progress in the goal difference, in the way Liverpool have handily dispatched teams which held them to draws last season. There's at least still progress in another Liverpool clean sheet, its sixth in the last 10 league games.

But it's still not enough progress to get Liverpool over the all-too-familiar mid-table mediocrity hump.

Liverpool v Everton 05.05.13

2013-05-04T09:58:00.002-04:00

8:30am ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
2-2 (h) 11.04.12
2-1 Liverpool (n; FA Cup) 04.14.12
3-0 Liverpool (h) 03.13.12
2-0 Liverpool (a) 10.01.11

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 6-0 Newcastle (a); 2-2 Chelsea (h); 0-0 Reading (a)
Everton: 1-0 Fulham (h); 0-1 Sunderland (a); 0-0 Arsenal (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 23; Gerrard 9; Sturridge 7; Henderson 5; Agger, Downing 3; Coutinho, Enrique, Skrtel, Sterling 2; Borini, Cole, Johnson, Şahin 1
Everton: Fellaini 11; Jelavic 7; Anichebe, Pienaar 6; Baines, Osman 5; Mirallas 4; Naismith 3; Jagielka 2; Gibson 1

Referee: Michael Oliver

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Enrique
Gerrard Lucas
Downing Coutinho Henderson
Sturridge

So, same as last week?

Liverpool don't have a ton of options. Well, there are options, but few, if any, seem remotely likely. The back six and keeper don't change. And the front four were very good last Saturday. Borini, finally fit and back with a goal within 90 seconds of coming on against Newcastle, could return to the starting XI in place of either Henderson or Coutinho, playing on the left with the other as the attacking midfielder. But it still seems too soon, and there's something of an "if it's ain't broke…" about Liverpool after Saturday's mauling, even though Everton will be night and day different than Newcastle were.

I do worry about Coutinho as the #10 on Sunday. It's hard to forget how Nuri Şahin was wholly muscled out of the game when playing in that role in the reverse fixture. But I'm not sure Henderson would do much better, and expect that he'd be more influential on the left again, whether storming into the box to support the attack or tracking back to protect against crosses from the flank. It'll be up to Coutinho to have a similar impact as he did last Saturday, although assuredly with vastly less time and space than Tiote and Perch provided.

It's hard to take much precedent from the last Merseyside Derby. Eight of Liverpool's starting XI almost certainly won't start tomorrow. Jones, Skrtel, Wisdom, Allen, Şahin, Sterling, Suso, and Suarez will be replaced by Reina, Carragher, Johnson, Lucas, Coutinho, Downing, Henderson, and Sturridge. Except for Liverpool's suspended #7, each of those is an upgrade, massively in the case of the first four.

No slight to Reina, Lucas, or even the dearly departing Carragher, but that Glen Johnson is fit, even if he has disappointed over the last month, might be the biggest difference. Wisdom was roasted by Mirallas and Baines while Everton were ascendant in the first half, prompting the change to 3-5-2 to stop the flood in the second half. Pienaar will probably play on the left tomorrow, with Mirallas on the opposite flank, but Johnson (and Enrique) will remain just as important, as will Liverpool's wingers tracking back to support.

You know what you're going to get from Moyes' Everton. An often over-performing, hard-working side usually built to disrupt the opposition's playing style, something done to excellent effect in both meetings against Rodgers' Swansea last season and for 65 or so minutes in the reverse fixture. Reliant on crosses – something Liverpool often struggle against – featuring the league's top chance creator in Leighton Baines, aimed toward the dangerous Fellaini and Jelavic (even though neither have scored in more in than six weeks).

But despite the preconceptions, no team has had as much possession against Rodgers' Liverpool as Everton did at Goodison. Liverpool took fewer shots in just two matches, at Chelsea and against Tottenham, than the 13 in October's meeting (tallying the same total at both United and Arsenal as well). They truly outplayed Liverpool for the majority of the match, and I am still incredibly bitter about Suarez's last-minute winner being wrongly ruled out.

The only debate in Everton's line-up seems whether Moyes will start with two strikers or three central midfielders. That Darren Gibson's doubtful with a hip injury may force his hand, unless Ross Barkley starts in something of a number 10 role (as he did in the 0-0 at Arsenal). But more likely is Howard; Coleman, Jagielka, Distin, Baines; Mirallas, Osman, Fellaini, Pienaar; Anichebe, Jelavic.

Since September 1999, these fixtures at Anfield have ended one of two ways: either a Liverpool win or a draw; the last Everton win came via a 4th-minute Kevin Campbell goal subsequently followed by two Liverpool sending offs. The Reds are also unbeaten in the last five Merseyside derbies. Liverpool have to continue those streaks if they've any chance of finishing above Everton – although, as Rodgers points out, while it'd be enjoyable, that certainly can't be a goal. And even more, it'd be incredibly poor form to break those streaks in Jamie Carragher's final derby.

On Liverpool's Shooting 2012-13

2013-05-01T11:15:00.001-04:00

I want to expound a little bit on the shots table included in Monday's match infographic. It seems worth more than an outbound link with next to no discussion.

Liverpool's shots per match vary fairly wildly from game to game, but have overall stayed fairly consistent through the season. Over the first ten matches, Liverpool averaged 18.6 shots per match. Over the next ten matches, 19.7 per match. And over the last ten matches, 21.2 per match, an average made more emphatic by the aberrant 35 against Swansea.

But as the season's gone on, Liverpool are putting a greater number of those shots on target. Over the first ten matches, 4.4 shots on target per match. Over the next ten matches, 6.3 per match. And over the last ten matches, 8.1 per match.

And, unsurprisingly, that's led to more goals per match. 1.3 over the first ten, 1.8 over the next ten, 2.3 in the last ten.

This week-by-week chart helps demonstrate that while both Liverpool's shots-per-game and shots-on-target-per-game are trending upwards, the shots on target average is trending upward at a greater pace.

As is Liverpool's shots-on-target percentage, even more dramatically.

Some progression would have been expected regardless of January transfer business – at least, that's what *should* happen in a manager's first season – but Liverpool's winter acquisitions were a turning point.

In the 21 matches before Sturridge's first league appearance, Liverpool averaged 19.6 shots per match, 5.6 shots on target per match, and 1.6 goals per match. In the 14 matches since his debut in the 1-2 loss to United, Liverpool have averaged 19.9 shots per match, 6.7 shots on target per match, and 2.4 goals per match. It's even more noticeable in the nine matches since Coutinho's full debut (it's hard to blame him for the last 10 minutes of that frustrating loss to West Brom): 20.8 shots per match, 8.2 shots on target per match, 2.6 goals per match, and 41.1% of shots on target.

For comparison, Liverpool averaged 17.57 shots per match last season, 5.52 on target, putting 31.4% of those shots on target. And the season-long trend lines for both shots per match and shots on target per match remained fairly static; the average number shots on target actually slightly decreased as the season went on. There was no progression. And as we all remember, Liverpool got worse as the campaign slipped away from them, although there were admittedly multiple reasons for it.

It's both obvious and simplistic (and as the match at Southampton proves, not always true), but when Liverpool put more of their shots on target, Liverpool have a much better chance of winning. And Liverpool have been putting more of their shots on target as the season's gone on.

Visualized: Liverpool 6-0 Newcastle

2013-04-29T09:53:00.000-04:00

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h), Arsenal (h), Manchester United (h), Norwich (a), Stoke (h), Reading (h), Everton (a), Newcastle (h), Chelsea (a), Wigan (h), Swansea (a), Tottenham (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Aston Villa (h), Fulham (h), Stoke (a), QPR (a), Sunderland (h), Manchester United (a), Norwich (h), Arsenal (a), Manchester City (a), West Brom (h), Swansea (h), Wigan (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Aston Villa (a), West Ham (h), Reading (a), Chelsea (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.

5-2 Norwich (a), 2-2 Everton (a), 3-2 West Ham (a), 4-0 Fulham (h), 1-3 Stoke (a), 3-0 QPR (a), 3-0 Sunderland (h), 2-2 Arsenal (a), 4-0 Wigan (a), 3-2 Tottenham (h), and 6-0 Newcastle (a).

8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, and an average of 3.27 goals scored per game, when Liverpool strikes in the first quarter of the match. If Liverpool score before 23 minutes are off the clock, Liverpool almost always score more, and Liverpool almost always get a decent result. As usual, Stoke remain something of an exception which proves the rule.

Incidentally, eight of those matches (5W-2D-1L) came away from Anfield.

It helps when it's one of those matches where Liverpool are surprisingly ruthless in front of goal. Between them, Henderson, Agger, and Borini took four shots. And scored four goals. Liverpool didn't put a single second half shot off-target; three goals, two on-target shots saved (one onto the woodwork), and three shots blocked.

Liverpool's 56.25% shooting accuracy is its second best total of the season, only the second match where Liverpool put more than 50% of its shots on goal. Of course, the one better match, where Liverpool's shooting accuracy was 61.11%, was the 1-3 loss at Southampton, which somewhat ruins the argument. Regardless, here's a (rather large, which is why it isn't embedded) table of Liverpool's shots per match this season for comparison. In 14 wins, Liverpool's average shooting accuracy is 35.15%. It's 29.90% in both the 12 draws and the nine losses.

Admittedly, Newcastle's defense made it easier for Liverpool to get those shots. As mentioned in the match review, three of Liverpool's goals came from a blown offside trap, while one started from a giveaway in Newcastle's half when Coutinho and Henderson hassled Ben Arfa off the ball. Newcastle only made nine interceptions, vastly below average for a Liverpool opponent this season (compare that to Chelsea's performance last week, or Reading's the week before), and almost the same number of fouls (14) as successful tackles (15). Debuchy's sending off was no surprise, but that Tiote or someone else didn't walk earlier was.

Meanwhile, Lucas' defense was outstanding. His nine tackles were a high for a Liverpool player this season, and the most he's won in a single game since 2008-09 (and probably his career, although that's as far back as EPL Index's stats go). He also completed 90% of his passes, his highest percentage since the 4-0 win at Wigan, and only Agger made more interceptions on Saturday. It was a vast improvement, in all regards, on his output against Chelsea, Reading, West Ham, and Villa, and a good sign that slowly but surely he's returning to his pre-injury form.

Special mention goes out to Henderson as well, full of running and incredibly efficient when on the left; with Perch and Tiote unable or unwilling to hold their position and Debuchy looking to get forward, Newcastle gave him space and he willingly took it, playing a crucial role in three of the first four goals. All while responsible for marking Debuchy, who subsequently had the second-worst passing accuracy of Newcastle's outfield starters and created zero chances. Then he was dominant on the ball in central midfield after Gerrard went off, a spell highlighted by his outstanding free kick goal. He averaged almost two passes per minute during the 20 minutes he played in the middle, at a time where Liverpool were happy to mercifully kill the game.

Finally, there were just four matches where Liverpool have had less possession this season: 2-2 against City, 2-2 at Everton, 2-2 at Arsenal, and 3-2 against Tottenham. Those, along with the two victories against Wigan, are the only matches where Liverpool has had less than 50% possession. But because of Liverpool's early goal(s), and the way Liverpool – especially Lucas, but team-wide – defended, possession was almost immaterial.

I'm tempted to ascribe some of the lack of possession to Suarez's absence, with Liverpool ostensibly more direct – most evident in the second, fourth, and fifth goals – but, overall, Saturday was incredibly similar to last month's 4-0 win at Wigan. Who, probably not coincidentally, is one of Newcastle's direct challengers in the upcoming relegation scramble.

Liverpool 6-0 Newcastle

2013-04-27T15:06:00.002-04:00

Goals:
Agger 3'
Henderson 17' 76'
Sturridge 54' 60'
Borini 74'

From Monday:

Sturridge was very, very good yesterday, but Liverpool will need that sort of performance with even more output, plus vastly improved performances from Downing, Coutinho, and Henderson. The Uruguayan is a hard man to kill, and an even harder man to replace.

Sturridge = two goals and an assist
Henderson = two goals and an assist
Downing = two assists
Coutinho = an assist, and the hub of so much of Liverpool's excellent work in attack.

Oh, and Borini made his return, scoring within 90 seconds of coming off the bench.

Well then.

It's incredibly difficult, but let's not get carried away with how well Liverpool played – more specifically, how ruthlessly Liverpool attacked – in Suarez's absence. Newcastle played a crucial role in Liverpool's rout, but it was still more than reassuring to see the team come out shouting blood and thunder, then go straight for the jugular.

It was the most goals Liverpool have scored in a league match since beating Hull City 6-1 in September 2009. A six-goal margin of victory equals Liverpool's biggest in a league away match, and a 0-6 loss is Newcastle's worst home defeat since 1925.

This was a different Liverpool in Suarez's absence. Liverpool had to spread the wealth without its talisman, and did so excellently. The side was much more direct in attack, and was less focused on keeping possession; Newcastle actually had more of the ball than Liverpool today. Coutinho thrived by playing in his preferred #10 position – neither superlatives nor statistics do that performance justice – while Sturridge exploited the acres of space given by Newcastle's back-line.

Of course, one swallow doesn't make a summer. We'll (unfortunately) have nine more games to see if Liverpool continue in this manner, and it continues to reap similar rewards. And as we always seem to hear when Liverpool stroll to victory, the opposition helped by not being very good today.

Once again, a comprehensive win starts with an early goal. Today started with Agger's third of the season, staying forward after Newcastle only half-cleared a corner, beating the offside trap to loft a header over Rob Elliot. And before Newcastle could breathe, Liverpool had a second: Reina's long kick deftly controlled by Sturridge, laid off to Coutinho, who found the striker with a wonderful through ball, subsequently put on a plate for Henderson, benefiting from his burst to join the attack with a tap into an empty net.

However, Newcastle finally pulled itself together, finishing the half with a scrappy 20 minutes where they could have easily pulled one back. Somehow, last season's villain James Perch missed a free header from Haidara's excellent cross. Karma. Still, Liverpool remain vulnerable to crosses into the box, but Newcastle couldn't take advantage.

Pardew's halftime changes – Ben Arfa for Perch, Gouffran for Jonas – continued Newcastle's momentum, but without reward. Then, countering quickly, came Liverpool's third. And once Sturridge got the third – Coutinho stealing possession from Ben Arfa after Henderson pressed him back into Newcastle's half, charging forward, and somehow threading the ball through two defenders – the match was over. The final 35 minutes were just piling dirt on the corpse.

Sturridge got his second on another blown offside trap: Gerrard's ball over the top meeting Henderson's burst, selflessly returning the favor for Sturridge's earlier assist rather than taking the more difficult shot. Borini came on for the captain in the 73rd – Gerrard's first missed minutes in the league this season – then scored in the 74th, smartly pulling into space to slot home Downing's cutback. Two minutes later, Henderson punished Debuchy's sending off for a second yellow by crossing a free kick directly into the net, one of those "balls into a dangerous area" that's going into the net whether it finds a Liverpool head or no head at all.

From there, merciful cruise control, the only real threat at extending the lead from Coutinho's wicked shot saved onto the crossbar, swiftly followed by Shelvey and Suso replacing the Brazilian and Sturridge.

Three of Liverpool's goals came from broken high-line offside traps. One came from Liverpool pressure in the opposition half, running at the defense before it could settle. Newcastle could do less about the final two: Borini wonderfully pulled into space and struck quickly, then Henderson's dangerous free kick eluded everyone. Liverpool did well, but, yes, Liverpool had help.

The next three matches, and subsequent six to start next season, will not be this easy. But this style of play seemed to suit Liverpool well, from back to front; the only concern was Liverpool's lack of possession inviting pressure for 20-30 minutes. Better teams could well be able to punish that lack of control. Still, it's a minor complaint when Liverpool's attack is that good.

Of course, Liverpool's next match is a Merseyside Derby, where the style of play regardless of personnel is more akin to mud wrestling.

Liverpool at Newcastle 04.27.13

2013-04-26T09:41:00.001-04:00

12:30pm ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 11.04.12
2-0 Newcastle (a) 04.01.12
3-1 Liverpool (h) 12.30.11
3-0 Liverpool (h) 05.01.11

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Chelsea (h); 0-0 Reading (a); 0-0 West Ham (h)
Newcastle: 1-1 West Brom (a); 0-3 Sunderland (h); 1-1 Benfica (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 23; Gerrard 9; Sturridge 5; Downing, Henderson 3; Agger, Coutinho, Enrique, Skrtel, Sterling 2; Cole, Johnson, Şahin 1
Newcastle: Ba 13; Cisse 8; Cabaye 6; Ben Arfa, Sissoko 3; Gouffran 2; Sh Ameobi, Jonas, Marveaux, Perch, Santon 1

Referee: Andre Marriner

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Enrique
Gerrard Lucas
Downing Coutinho Henderson
Sturridge

Well, Suarez's suspension (which he isn't appealing) takes a bit of the fun out of the lineup guessing game. It also takes 40% of Liverpool's goals and 13% of Liverpool's assists this season out of the lineup for the next ten games. And it's now up to Brendan Rodgers to figure out how to cope with this irritating situation.

Borini's back in training, and Sterling may be used before the end of the campaign after making just one appearance in the last two months, but tomorrow's front four seems as certain as the other seven positions. It'll be Sturridge, Downing, Henderson, and Coutinho. The only question is whether Henderson or Coutinho is the number 10, with the other ostensibly playing on the left.

I think we'll get the version which started at Reading: Coutinho in the hole and Henderson out wide. Liverpool will need added creativity in the center of the park with Suarez absent, which Coutinho can provide. And Newcastle are strong on the flank, whether Ben Arfa or Gouffran starts on the right; Henderson's a better option to help nullify that potential threat.

Otherwise, same old, same old. Reina in goal; Johnson, Carragher, Agger, and Enrique in defense; and Gerrard and Lucas in central midfield. With news that Gerrard might need shoulder surgery this summer (everybody wants to be like Joe Allen), there were questions as to why he just doesn't get it over with now. But Rodgers has been incredibly unwilling to sit Gerrard during better times; even with little to play for, he'll want his captain out there that much more with Suarez absent.

While Liverpool frets over Suarez's future, 16th-placed Newcastle is trying to cope with an overwhelming injury list. Cisse and Tiote should be available despite respective rib and hamstring problems, but Marveaux, Krul, Santon, Coloccini, and Ryan Taylor are all out. If the first two play, I suspect Newcastle's XI will be: Rob Elliot; Debuchy, Steven Taylor, Yanga-Mbiwa, Haidara; Tiote, Cabaye; Gouffran, Sissoko, Jonas; Cisse. Ben Arfa could start in place of Gouffran; Jonas could play left-back allowing both Gouffran and Ben Arfa to start. If Cisse's unavailable, it'll be Gouffran or Shola Ameobi up front. If Tiote's unavailable, it'll be Perch or Anita in midfield.

Six points outside of the relegation zone with four games to play and level on points with 14th-placed Sunderland and 15th-placed Stoke, Newcastle is *probably* safe. This season has been the definition of "regression to the mean" – vastly overachieving last campaign, vastly underachieving in this campaign. The loss of Demba Ba, still Newcastle's top scorer this season, hasn't helped, but Newcastle are in almost the exact same position in the table as they were on January 1. The difference is those aforementioned injuries; they were incredibly lucky last season, and have been incredibly unlucky this season.

That said, Newcastle remain a dangerous side, one capable of causing Liverpool problems: speedy on the flanks and good crossers of the ball. Only four teams attempt more crosses per game, no team attempts more long balls per game. Cabaye is outstanding on set plays, Cisse can conjure goals from nothing if you give him the space, and Sissoko has proven especially dangerous on rampaging counter-attacks.

Liverpool may wish the season over, may have little and less to play for with Europe very unlikely, aggrieved over its talisman's absence. But Liverpool can't show up thinking those thoughts. We need to see the side finish as strong as possible, if only to gain the confidence that it can start next season in a similar manner.

Visualized: Liverpool 2-2 Chelsea

2013-04-22T09:51:00.000-04:00

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h), Arsenal (h), Manchester United (h), Norwich (a), Stoke (h), Reading (h), Everton (a), Newcastle (h), Chelsea (a), Wigan (h), Swansea (a), Tottenham (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Aston Villa (h), Fulham (h), Stoke (a), QPR (a), Sunderland (h), Manchester United (a), Norwich (h), Arsenal (a), Manchester City (a), West Brom (h), Swansea (h), Wigan (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Aston Villa (a), West Ham (h), Reading (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.

Not for the first time this season, it was a tale a two halves.

Liverpool were light years better in the second half, especially in attacking third passing, shots on target, and possession. The take-ons and crosses stats also seem important, more evidence of Liverpool's increased attacking potency. Conversely, Chelsea were much worse, mostly because Liverpool were able to control the tenor and tempo – aside from the mad move which led to Chelsea's penalty and the subsequent ten minutes on tilt.

To reinforce the tale of two halves narrative, compare each side's "Player Influence," via StatsZone.

The extra attacking player handed Liverpool the initiative in the second half. The fullbacks and Gerrard were much more involved, Liverpool were more coherent in the final third without Coutinho, Henderson, and Downing repeatedly giving the ball away, and Chelsea's defenders couldn't focus solely on Suarez. Benitez's tactics aided Liverpool in the final 15 minutes, removing Hazard, Mata, and Oscar for more defensive players, which was part of the reason that Liverpool took more shots from the 85th minute on than in the entire first half.

But the 4-2-4 formation isn't always the easy solution to Liverpool's problems, and I wasn't surprised by Liverpool's starting XI. Liverpool were marginally better than their opponents, with Chelsea blunted, from Hazard's penalty until Benitez's substitutions, but still struggled to test Chelsea for a good 20 minutes in the second half. Liverpool woefully underperformed in the same formation against Southampton, who use similar tactics to Chelsea, and Liverpool had to shift from 4-2-4 to 4-2-3-1 to prompt the comeback against Tottenham at Anfield last month. There is no catch-all panacea, but at least Liverpool under Rodgers have increasing options.

Meanwhile, Suarez was responsible for 63% of Liverpool's shots on target. He put five of his six on target, scoring once, fittingly registering both Liverpool's first and last shots on target. Sturridge had one on target, his goal, while Gerrard had two, both saved. The other 12 efforts were either off-target or blocked. Keep that in mind when Suarez serves his inevitable ban, hopefully for no more than the last four games of this season. Sturridge was very, very good yesterday, but Liverpool will need that sort of performance with even more output, plus vastly improved performances from Downing, Coutinho, and Henderson. The Uruguayan is a hard man to kill, and an even harder man to replace.

It doesn't seem coincidental that both of Liverpool's goals came from quick, one-touch passing moves down the flank, moves that started in Liverpool's own half. That's been the case for more than a few goals this season, including many of Liverpool's best. And it doesn't seem coincidental that both of Chelsea's came from set plays: one a free header directly from a corner, the second a penalty won during a corner. But we're all already well aware where Liverpool need to improve during the offseason.

There was one interesting, reassuring defensive stat. Yesterday was the first time this season that all of Liverpool's attempted tackles were successful tackles. Lucas made five; Enrique four; Johnson, Agger, and Suarez two; and Carragher, Gerrard, and Henderson one. Compare that to last week's match, where just 11 of Liverpool's 18 attempted tackles were successful, and just two of Lucas' seven. Liverpool also committed just eight fouls (not included the handball), compared to Chelsea's 11, including just three in its own half. Which, at least, is a good way to limit those dangerous set plays that Liverpool have an all-too-nasty habit of conceding from.

Liverpool 2-2 Chelsea

2013-04-21T13:53:00.003-04:00

Goals:
Oscar 26'
Sturridge 52'
Hazard 57' (pen)
Suarez 90+7'

The Luis Suarez show. And not in the good way. Well, some in the good way – an assist for Liverpool's first equalizer, and a goal for the second equalizer with the last touch of the game – but much, much more in the bad way.

Because it sure looks like Luis Suarez bit a guy. He also conceded a penalty for Chelsea's second, an understandable if slightly harsh call, but more importantly, he bit a guy. For the second time in his career. Words fail me.

The man just cannot avoid the headlines. We've been spoiled because he's been in the headlines for the right reasons this season, but we've been here before and it's not fun.

Also, a football game happened. A game where Liverpool were very disappointing and deserved to be behind after the first half, but merited the draw with its second half performance. Please remember that when we spend the next week talking about Suarez's extracurricular vampiric activities.

Liverpool were decent, if cagey, in the first five to ten minutes, culminating in an excellent Johnson chance toe-poked wide. But from there, Chelsea grew in stature, thanks as much to Liverpool's disconnect in attack as their own improvement. And in the 26th minute, Liverpool conceded the exact goal they conceded in the reverse fixture. In November, John Terry eluded Agger and Carragher to slam in a near-post header in the 21st minute. Today, Oscar eluded Agger and Carragher – mostly Agger – to slam in a near-post header in the 26th minute. Set plays remain a soul-killing, heart-stopping experience.

And Liverpool were lucky not to concede three minutes later when Reina spilled Luiz's fierce effort but regrouped just before the ball crossed the line. The Reds didn't register a first shot on target until the 42nd minute, from – who else – Suarez, saved at the near post, quickly followed by a second on target just before the interval from a similar angle on the opposite side of the pitch.

I compared Benitez's Chelsea to Pochettino's Southampton in the match preview, which turned out depressingly accurate, at least in the first half. With both Henderson and Coutinho supremely wasteful, Liverpool's final third pass accuracy was 55.6% in the opening 45 minutes. The only time Liverpool were less accurate in the final third over a full match was against Pochettino's Southampton.

But it was a very different Liverpool which retook the field after halftime, and Sturridge replacing Coutinho made all of the difference. Within a minute, Sturridge created a wonderful chance for Gerrard, remarkably saved by an outstretched leg from Cech. A minute later, Sturridge spun away from a defender and lashed a rocket off the post. And five minutes after that, Sturridge notched the equalizer, a wonderful move from back to front: Reina to Carragher, over the top to Downing, flicked directly into the path of Suarez, who sumptuously crossed first-time to an open Sturridge at the far post, tapped past Cech from six yards out before the keeper could slide over. Always play players against their former club...

But the joyous reprieve lasted just five minutes. Mata's clear dive won a deep free kick (and got Lucas booked), which resulted in a Chelsea corner. And from that corner, Suarez handled; Kevin Friend immediately pointed to the spot. I'm in the minority, but – surprise, surprise – I thought it was a harsh decision. Admittedly, arms above head will almost always get called, but that Suarez's arms were above his head seemed an involuntary reaction to being pulled off-balance by Torres grabbing his kit. It was literally the only positive thing Torres did all match. Regardless, Hazard stepped to the spot after a couple of minutes of arguing and coolly sent Reina the wrong way.

Unsurprisingly, the concession killed any Liverpool momentum. Back to square one despite all the good that came in the 12 minutes before. It's probably not coincidental that an aggrieved Suarez bit Ivanovic soon after the penalty concession; we've long known how frustrated the Uruguayan can get when things don't go his way. Which is not an excuse. It was disgusting, and I could probably use even harsher language to condemn it, but children might be reading this. Suarez deserves to be punished by the FA and by Liverpool. And Liverpool are supremely lucky that Friend didn't see it. Although maybe they aren't; Jermain Defoe bit Mascherano a few years back but escaped punishment because the referee booked him. I doubt anyone in the media will mention that this week.

From there, with Liverpool still stuttering, Benitez looked to kill the game: Benayoun, Moses, and Lampard replaced the more attacking Hazard, Oscar, and Mata (memories...), while Liverpool's response was to send on Shelvey for Downing. It was another positive change from Rodgers, leading to Liverpool's chances in the last ten minutes, but Shelvey wasted two – one a sitter – while Henderson's fired wide from Suarez's lay-off and then Suarez blasted a shot straight down Cech's throat. It seemed that Liverpool would again fail to find the needed last minute goal, which has happened all too often whether needing a winner or an equalizing, yet another marginally undeserved loss to a side ahead of them in the table.

But in the last act of the game, Liverpool scored, with roles reversed from the first equalizer. Sturridge's wonderful right-sided cross connected with Suarez's run to the near post between Ivanovic and Luiz, with Cech unable to keep out the close-range header. Because of course him. We've rarely had such a clear dichotomy of the good Suarez and bad Suarez as today. Also, let's not lose sight of Sturridge's role in both goals. He was absolutely outstanding in his 45 minutes. Suarez will get the headlines, good and bad and more bad, but Sturridge was the difference. He'll have to keep that up for the rest of the season with an inevitable Suarez suspension looming.

The struggles from the starting XI in the first half disappointed, especially Coutinho, Henderson, and Downing, but the way Liverpool and Rodgers responded in the second half was reassuring. We haven't seen enough meaningful in-game changes from the manager or the team this season. We also haven't seen enough of Liverpool responding to adversity. And we haven't seen enough of "good Liverpool" against teams ahead of them in the table.

Those are all good signs. Pity that they'll all be forgotten and ignored because of Suarez's moment of indefensible stupidity.

Liverpool v Chelsea 04.21.13

2013-04-20T10:49:00.001-04:00

11am ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (a) 11.11.12
4-1 Liverpool (h) 05.08.12
1-2 Chelsea (n; FA Cup) 05.05.12
2-0 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 11.29.11

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Reading (a); 0-0 West Ham (h); 2-1 Villa (a)
Chelsea: 3-0 Fulham (a); 1-2 City (a); 2-3 Rubin Kazan (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 22; Gerrard 9; Sturridge 4; Downing, Henderson 3; Agger, Coutinho, Enrique, Skrtel, Sterling 2; Cole, Johnson, Şahin 1
Chelsea: Lampard 12; Mata 10; Hazard 8; Torres 7; Ivanovic 5; Ramires, Terry 4; Ba, Cahill, Luiz 2; Cole, Marin, Moses, Oscar, Sturridge 1

Referee: Kevin Friend

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Enrique
Gerrard Lucas
Downing Coutinho Henderson
Suarez

I am not looking forward to this.

I am not looking forward to Rafa Benitez's return to Anfield at the same time that Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool is painfully stuttering its way to the end of the season, the first time Liverpool have hosted a former manager since Kenny Dalglish came with Newcastle in January 1998. (Edit: It has since been pointed out to me that Roy Hodgson actually managed Liverpool, and then returned with West Brom. We regret the error, but still maintain he doesn't count.) It's gonna be awkward and it's gonna be weird.

I am not looking forward to a Liverpool that hasn't scored in 210 minutes of football facing a side that's given up only 33 league goals all season. Only Manchester City has allowed fewer.

I am not looking forward to facing a side that's also scored the second-most goals in the league this season, behind only Manchester United. And having struggled against the likes of Benteke, Lukaku, etc., I am not looking forward to Liverpool having to defend a side that's scored the most headed goals in the league.

Are there any consolations?

Well, despite the disappointments in the last two matches, Liverpool are a much better side than they were the last time they faced Chelsea. And Liverpool matched Chelsea almost step for step in the reverse fixture in November, rightfully earning a point at Stamford Bridge, rarely looking like conceding aside from the set play that John Terry scored from.

Rodgers' Liverpool lined up in a 3-5-1-1 at Stamford Bridge five months ago. I'd be very, very surprised if that were the case tomorrow. Liverpool's personnel will also be very different; five of the 11 starters in November either assuredly or probably won't play – Allen, Jones, Şahin, Sterling, and Wisdom.

As usual, it's a case of Sturridge or Henderson; I'd be surprised if Downing were left out so Sturridge could start on the right again, although it's definitely a possibility. I am a firm believer in playing players against their former club, but Henderson seems more likely to start than the ex-Chelsea striker. And if that's the case, it's a question of who plays on the left and who plays as the #10. Unlike against Reading, Henderson makes more sense centrally, able to press Mikel/Lampard/Ramires when Chelsea are in possession, with Coutinho given more freedom on the left because of Chelsea's wingers' frequent inability to track back.

It's sort of a Goldilocks solution. Playing two strikers appears to leave Liverpool too open against dangerous opposition, especially given Chelsea's preferred formation, while Coutinho's ability to unlock Chelsea's defense as the attacking midfielder would be hampered by Mikel's close attention.

Despite the initial troubles, mostly caused by Chelsea fans' stubborn idiocy, Benitez's Chelsea have become a very Benitez side.

The best comparison, other than to Benitez's former sides, is Pochettino's Southampton. A team that beat Liverpool 3-1, albeit on its own ground. They were well-organized; disciplined; fluid, flexible, and fast in attack; and put frequent pressure on the ball when out of possession. Chelsea will play a similar style, but with more talented players.

Rafa's lineups have never been the easiest to predict, made harder by the massive amount of matches Chelsea have played in the last few weeks, but chances are it looks something like: Cech; Azpilicueta and Bertrand at fullback; two from Ivanovic, Luiz, and Terry at center-back; two from Lampard, Mikel, and Ramires in midfield; Hazard, Mata, and either Oscar and Moses in the attacking line of three; and either Torres or Ba up front. Ashley Cole, Marin, and Cahill are all doubtful through injury, while Romeu remains out for the season.

This game would have made me much less nervous last season. Under Dalglish, Liverpool struggled against lesser quality opposition, against the West Hams and Readings (yes, I know neither were in the division but bear with me), yet almost always found form against the sides ahead of them in the table. This season, the win over Tottenham at Anfield remains Liverpool's only victory against one of the 1st-6th placed sides: two losses to United, two draws against City, a loss and draw against Arsenal, a win and loss against Tottenham, and draws at Everton and Chelsea. Liverpool played to its full potential in two, maybe three, of those matches, while the side had moments in one or two others.

Liverpool will need to play to its full potential to take all three points tomorrow, to continue to be defensively solid, but to also find the goal-scoring form which has eluded them in the last two matches.

Visualized: Liverpool 0-0 Reading

2013-04-16T09:01:00.000-04:00

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h), Arsenal (h), Manchester United (h), Norwich (a), Stoke (h), Reading (h), Everton (a), Newcastle (h), Chelsea (a), Wigan (h), Swansea (a), Tottenham (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Aston Villa (h), Fulham (h), Stoke (a), QPR (a), Sunderland (h), Manchester United (a), Norwich (h), Arsenal (a), Manchester City (a), West Brom (h), Swansea (h), Wigan (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Aston Villa (a), West Ham (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.

Tolstoy had the measure of it. Happy results are all alike. Every unhappy result is unhappy in its own way.

Sure, like last week when comparing Liverpool's 0-0 against West Ham to November's 0-0 against Stoke, there are some similarities between Sunday's match and Liverpool's three other scoreless draws. But on the whole, the last two results, while similar in scoreline, played out fairly differently.

Last week, Liverpool were disjointed in attack, with Suarez often stifled and with West Ham tackling everything that moved when Liverpool actually managed to not give the ball away in the final third.

On Saturday, Liverpool played one of its more cohesive away games this season, combining well from back to front despite a lower pass accuracy, creating far more chances, taking far more shots, and putting more of those shots on target. Liverpool looked much more fluent with Sturridge ostensibly on the right this week, provided better balance by Henderson on the left and Coutinho and Suarez's consistent movement through the middle. Liverpool were as potent after switching to 4-2-4, taking almost as many shots in the final 30 minutes as in the first 60 without resorting to more speculative efforts, but the mounting frustration was tangible, a clear feeling of "how the hell haven't we scored yet?" Yes, again. Meanwhile, Reading attacked somewhat similarly to West Ham, reliant on long balls and crosses, but made fewer than half the number of tackles, and took fewer shots and created fewer chances than West Ham despite more possession. On Saturday, Liverpool simply ran into a brick wall of a goalkeeper.

Liverpool have now played 210 consecutive minutes without scoring, have taken 55 shots (20 on target) and created 38 chances without scoring. The former is certainly the team's longest drought in the league this season, and it's safe to assume the subsequent statistics are as well.

Liverpool took more shots in the final five minutes of both halves than Reading took in total, and took the same number of shots in the last 10 minutes of the match as Reading did in the entire match. And put more of those shots on target as well. Fat lot of good it did them, although, again, almost all of the credit for that goes to Alex McCarthy.

Despite the decent overall play, Liverpool's pass accuracy against Reading was its fourth lowest of the season; only Everton (a), Tottenham (h), and Southampton (a) saw worse. Incidentally, two of those three worse performances have come in the last five matches.

It's easy to point to fatigue for Liverpool's woes in the last few matches. And I will, thank you, at least in part.

In the 28 matches through Liverpool's 4-0 win at Wigan, Liverpool averaged 526 attempted passes per match, completing 85.0% of them. It's a small sample size, but in the five matches since – Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Villa (a), West Ham (h), and Reading (a) – Liverpool have averaged 494 attempted passes per match, completing 78.8% of them. Tottenham are currently 5th, but Southampton are 11th, West Ham 12th, Villa 17th, and Reading 20th. It's not as if Liverpool have faced a murderer's row over the last month.

It's similar for final third passes. Liverpool are averaging around 10 fewer final third passes per match in the last five games, completing 64.3% of them compared to 73.7% in the first 28 games. Fewer and less accurate final third passes are still leading to a similar amount of shots, but Liverpool has averaged 1.2 goals per game over the last five matches; it was 1.9 during the first 28, many of those games played without either Coutinho or Sturridge. Liverpool have averaged 1.6 points per game in last five matches, which is better than the 1.5 points per game average over the previous 28 matches, but remember, that includes the first five matches where Liverpool took just two points in total.

To use one player as an example. Yesterday, Liverpool attempted 19 tackles – again, below its season average – but only 11 were successful tackles. Lucas was responsible for five of the eight unsuccessful tackles, winning just two of his seven. And he also had his least accurate passing display of the season, completing just 74%; his average for the season was 88% going into Saturday's match.

Suarez was much improved compared to his performance against West Ham; it's certainly wasn't evident in scoring output, while he created fewer chances than usual as well, but putting five of his seven shots on target is an outstanding rate for him. But Gerrard and Johnson, among others, were almost as disappointing as Lucas. Liverpool's stars, the players that make Liverpool tick, simply haven't been at their best lately.

It has been a long season, a long season made even longer by a lack of squad depth, especially before the January transfer window. A long season nearing another disappointing end. It's sad to say, but a drop in form shouldn't be all that surprising.

15.04.1989

2013-04-15T07:55:00.002-04:00

We'll do the match infographic tomorrow, even if that makes it a little less timely. Today's not for football.

Justice for the 96. Never forgotten.

• Hillsborough Justice Campaign
• Hillsborough Family Support Group
• The Hillsborough Football Disaster
• Don’t Buy The Sun
• Hillsborough Independent Panel: Disclosed Material and Report
• LFCTV – A Landmark Year (video)
• LFCTV – Never Forgotten
• LFCTV's day-long coverage
• Liverpool FC tribute page
• ITV and BBC documentaries via Liverpool Offside
• Dave Kirby: The Justice Bell

Liverpool 0-0 Reading

2013-04-13T12:47:00.003-04:00

Déjà vu all over again. Déjà vu from last week, and déjà vu from last season.

If you thought last week's match was insane, that it was unfathomable Liverpool could fail to score, you hadn't seen anything yet.

Discussion starts and ends with Alex McCarthy, who was making his first start since a shoulder injury in November. He hadn't played for more than five months and then comes up with a performance like that. I can't remember the last time I've seen a better goalkeeping performance. And we saw a lot of them last season.

It was the same scoreline as when Liverpool traveled to West Ham six days ago, but today was very, very last season. We got the Liverpool Hat-Trick: a goal ruled out for offside, what looked to be a certain goal cleared off the line, and a shot caroming off the post – which all also happened at West Ham. All that was lacking was a missed penalty to fully complete the time machine trip to 2011-12. And more importantly, we got a goalkeeper on cheat mode, in even better form than Ruddy, Hart, De Gea, Al Habsi, or any of the others who somehow stood on their head against Dalglish's side.

An early goal, and this ends just like Swansea, Wigan, Norwich, et al ended. Of course, we said similar after West Ham. Four, three, two months ago, and this probably ends just like Swansea, Wigan, Norwich et al ended. Liverpool players, especially the crucial players – Suarez, Gerrard, Johnson more than others – are clearly fatigued, overextended and struggling to finish the season in any semblance of form. It's been that way since the reassuring 3-2 win comeback win over Tottenham at least, and arguably going back a game before when Wigan was thoroughly overwhelmed.

Spare a thought for Brendan Rodgers, although I'm certain you aren't inclined to do so. The tactical changes to the starting XI made Liverpool a better side, more cohesive in attack, with far fewer final-third foibles compared to last Sunday. Sturridge ostensibly started on the right, where he was against West Ham, but spent little time there. Henderson returned to a left-sided berth, shifting between the flanks and midfield, while Coutinho played behind Suarez. All four rotated fairly effectively. Reading's lack of attacking threat meant Johnson and Enrique had acres of space to roam freely without the fear of being exposed. Liverpool simply could not put the damned ball in the damned net, and it wasn't for lack of chances, both clear-cut and speculative.

Yes, yet again, Rodgers wasn't able to change things during the match, handcuffed by the squad's quality and options on the bench. Yes, it may have been better to remove Lucas rather than Henderson on the hour mark, still switching to the ostensibly more potent 4-2-4 but with a more dynamic midfield and with Lucas both barely needed and already booked. But after that change, what else was Rodgers going to do? Bring on the increasingly disappointing Shelvey? The barely seen Suso or Assaidi. This squad, even after January's improvements, remains markedly shallow. This is news to no one.

Rodgers didn't force McCarthy into 10 saves – a high for an opposition goalkeeper this season – and didn't fail to take just one of the countless chances Liverpool created. Had McCarthy not played out of his mind, had Gunter not cleared Suarez's 14th minute chip off the line, had Coutinho stayed onside in the 49th minute, had Suarez's 78th minute free kick been 6 inches to the left rather than off the post, had Liverpool converted just one – just one! – of its 28 shots, Rodgers looks an awful lot more clever.

I'll repeat: 28 shots, 11 on target. Five on target from Suarez, two from Sturridge and Gerrard, one from Coutinho and Downing. Only Lucas and Reina failed to take at least one shot; Agger, Lucas, and Reina were the only starters to fail to create a chance. Few of McCarthy's saves were routine; they weren't easily grabbed shots straight down his throat. And saves on Coutinho, Suarez (twice), Sturridge, and Gerrard were simply remarkable.

This is the first time that Liverpool have had back-to-back 0-0s in the league since December 2008, against both Fulham and West Ham at Anfield. The first time Liverpool have failed to score in consecutive league matches since losing to Stoke and Tottenham at the start of last season. Failing to score for the last 210 minutes, it's Liverpool's longest goalless streak since the beginning of last season as well and it's also the first away match where Liverpool failed to score in the last 11.

What makes this even more infuriating is that no matter how well McCarthy played, it changes nothing for Reading. A single point is almost as worthless as none. Had Reading actually attempted to attack more than sporadically, Liverpool may well have penetrated McCarthy's forcefield. But they didn't – with one good chance created more by Liverpool than Reading and well-saved by Reina – and they still remain planted to the foot of the table, eight points from safety. Congratulations. You're still going down. Cowards. And now both Liverpool and Reading fans go home unhappy. Some more unhappy than others.

Despite the anger, this changes next to nothing in the greater scheme of things, except Liverpool are marginally more likely to finish behind Everton for the second consecutive season. Which is a massive blow to Liverpudlian pride, but not much else. Liverpool already weren't qualifying for Europe, not even the Europa League, thanks to failings earlier in the campaign. Which, of course, doesn't make today any less frustrating.

This season cannot end soon enough. And it's the fourth season in a row where I've written that depressing line.

Liverpool at Reading 04.13.13

2013-04-12T10:54:00.000-04:00

10am ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (h) 10.20.12
1-2 Reading aet (h; FA Cup) 01.13.10
1-1 (a; FA Cup) 01.02.10
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.15.08

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 West Ham (h); 2-1 Villa (a); 1-3 Southampton (a)
Reading: 0-2 Southampton (a); 1-4 Arsenal (a); 0-1 United (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 22; Gerrard 9; Sturridge 4; Downing, Henderson 3; Agger, Coutinho, Enrique, Skrtel, Sterling 2; Cole, Johnson, Şahin 1
Reading: le Fondre 10; Kebe, Pogrebnyak, Robson-Kanu 5; Hunt, Morrison 2; Gorkss, Guthrie, Leigertwood, Mariappa, McCleary 1

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Enrique
Gerrard Lucas
Downing Suarez Coutinho
Sturridge

Reading, currently propping up the table, will have to come out at play. There will be no Spartan last stand, with James Collins et al tackling everything in sight on the edge of his box. Reading are at home, and probably need to win all of their remaining games to have a chance at staying in the Premier League.

Liverpool's previous match against Reading and Liverpool's last match against a Nigel Adkins-managed side were both narrow 1-0 wins, both at Anfield. But both of those matches took place in the first half of the season (the reverse fixture, the eighth of the league campaign, saw Liverpool's first win at Anfield), before the arrival of Sturridge and Coutinho, before Liverpool's attack coalesced in an almost-capable, if sometimes still misfiring machine.

Rodgers spoke about how Sturridge hasn't been fully fit in the last two matches, left on the bench at Villa and on as a substitute for the ill Downing against West Ham. However, I've a sneaking suspicion that he may start tomorrow. Even though Liverpool are away from home, which was a recipe for disaster when this front four started against Southampton, Liverpool will want to attack tomorrow's opponent at pace, with quick transitions from back to front, hoping to get that early goal which has seen the side coast past a handful of similar opponents. Reading needing all three points rather than a resilient one plays into this strategy.

But as usual, it appears it's one of two options. Either the above, or with Henderson in place of Sturridge. Downing has recovered from illness (and despite his flaws, seems fairly necessary for Liverpool's balance on the flanks), Coutinho has been one of Liverpool's bright spots of late, Lucas and Gerrard will assuredly start in midfield, and the back four has been Johnson, Carragher, Agger, and Enrique in seven of the last eight league matches.

Meanwhile, Reading have lost eight consecutive matches, seven in the league and one in the FA Cup, a streak dating back to February 3. Nigel Adkins' two matches in charge have seen a 1-4 loss at Arsenal and 0-2 loss at Southampton. Adkins has used some variation of 4-5-1 in both matches, more a 4-1-4-1 with Pogrebnyak up front at Arsenal, but a 4-2-3-1 with le Fondre as the lone striker at Southampton.

Like Liverpool's last opponent, Reading are fairly reliant on crossing; only West Ham averages more per game in the league. They aren't as reliant on hopeful punts upfield, but Reading will attack directly, usually via width, putting pressure on Liverpool's fullbacks and wingers, demanding that Agger and Carragher remain capable in the air. There are six Premier League teams who average more than 25 crosses per game: West Ham, Reading, Newcastle, Everton, Arsenal, and United. Liverpool have won just two of the nine matches they've played against those six teams: the reverse fixture against Reading and December's match at West Ham.

Jimmy Kebe, one of those Reading wide players, is doubtful with a groin injury, as is former Everton academy graduate Hope Akpan. I suspect Adkins' XI will look more like the one against Arsenal than Southampton – although maybe that's just my misplaced hope that Liverpool are closer to Arsenal than Southampton – with three central midfielders sitting deeper rather than the slightly more attacking trio of Guthrie-Karacan-Akpan which started last weekend.

However, I do think Le Fondre will start, having scored twice as many goals as Pogrebnyak, but I expect Guthrie to sit deeper than he did against Southampton, partnered with Karacan and Leigertwood in midfield, with Robson-Kanu and McAnuff on the flanks, a back four of Gunter, Morrison, Mariappa, and Kelly, and Federici in goal.

The question, as has also become usual, is "which Liverpool will we get?" Will we get the Liverpool who comprehensively demolished similar opponents over the last four months? Or the Liverpool which broke down in the final third time and time again when facing West Ham and West Brom? Or the Liverpool which conceded an early goal against Villa (at home), Stoke, and Southampton and rarely looked like getting back into the game?

Consistency remains this side's biggest concern. Which isn't a new development. We've seen Liverpool become more resilient and resistant, inch by inch, whether in comebacks against Tottenham and Villa or in not stupidly conceding to West Ham after an inability to make the breakthrough. We've seen evidence that there's a good side taking shape, and that there's clear potential to build on over the last six games.

But we've admittedly not seen it often enough.

Visualized: Liverpool 0-0 West Ham

2013-04-08T09:32:00.001-04:00

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester City (h), Arsenal (h), Manchester United (h), Norwich (a), Stoke (h), Reading (h), Everton (a), Newcastle (h), Chelsea (a), Wigan (h), Swansea (a), Tottenham (a), Southampton (h), West Ham (a), Aston Villa (h), Fulham (h), Stoke (a), QPR (a), Sunderland (h), Manchester United (a), Norwich (h), Arsenal (a), Manchester City (a), West Brom (h), Swansea (h), Wigan (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Aston Villa (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.

Looks a bit like this, yeah?

I'm sure that's not the first time Allardyce's West Ham have been compared to Pulis' Stoke, and it probably won't be the last.

West Ham took a few more shots than Stoke in its 0-0 draw at Anfield, with the Potters almost wholly reliant on set plays to threaten. At the same time, Liverpool were even less able to put its shots on target in November's 0-0 draw; at least they tested Jaaskelainen yesterday, forcing seven saves and one goal-line clearance from Tomkins. Otherwise, there are more than a few similarities between the two matches.

Mainly, the passing and possession dominance without reward and the overuse of shots from outside the box because an inability to break through a deep and determined defense. Liverpool were similarly wasteful in the final third, 69% accuracy against West Ham and 68% against Stoke.

Liverpool created 15 chances against West Ham, slightly better than its 14 per game average and the 12 created in the home draw with Stoke, but only one was a clear-cut chance.

Aside from Downing, who only featured for 25 minutes, Luis Suarez had the lowest pass accuracy of Liverpool's outfield starters, below his season-long 77% pass accuracy. His shots tally was also slightly subpar, taking five (just two on target), compared to a season average of 5.6. He lost possession 32 times, tied for his high in a single match in the last two seasons. But he also had one of Liverpool's best chances, Jaaskelainen's 27th-minute save after a clever exchange with Coutinho. And, as we've learned before, Liverpool can't rely on Suarez every week, no matter this season's blistering form. I'm still baffled why Suarez remained the lone central striker all match long with Sturridge mainly relegated to the flank as a like-for-like replacement for Downing.

Also like Stoke, West Ham were reliant on long balls and crosses in attack. Which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Liverpool's most frequent pass combination was Lucas to Gerrard; West Ham's was Jaaskelainen to Carlton Cole. 17% of West Ham's passes were long passes compared to 8% for Liverpool. Half of West Brom's chances created – five of ten – came from crosses; overall, West Ham completed six of 15 crosses (compared to Liverpool's two of 21). In defense of Liverpool's defense, they've struggled when Stoke (away) and Aston Villa (home) played in a similar manner, and all those successful crosses led to just one outstanding chance, one shot on target. But it was a chance that West Ham will regret not taking.

Yesterday's statistics also bear a few similarities to Liverpool's 0-2 loss to West Brom. Except in one crucial regard: Liverpool didn't give up a goal – or, subsequently, a second – in the final ten minutes when the opposition attacked. They certainly had the opportunity; if not for Lucas's 86th-minute goal-line clearance, we're ruing yet another undeserved loss rather than just a frustrating draw.

On the whole, Liverpool have smashed weaker teams more often than in better seasons, and vastly more than the last two or three. Norwich home and away, Wigan home and away, QPR away, Sunderland home, Fulham home, Swansea home. That's eight league matches which Liverpool have won by three or more goals. They did that just four times last season: at Wolves, against Everton, at Norwich, and against Chelsea. It took until the penultimate match to score four in a league contest, beating a weakened Chelsea which had just won the FA Cup and were focused on the Champions League final. At this point last season, Liverpool had four 0-0 draws in the league. And six fewer points.

Days like yesterday happen, to every side in every season, and are especially possible when Suarez is off-color. Unfortunately, because of what's gone on earlier in the season, days like yesterday also feel much worse than they should.