Ol' Ball Game

Analysis of the Blue Jays First Round

2012-06-05T13:18:00.001-04:00

The first round went as expected for me personally. The big highlight for me was Courtny Hawkins doing a back flip after being selected by the White Sox. He then recieved a phone call from Kenny Williams who quickly put a stop to all backflips.

Most teams picked who they were expected too, with the one major exception in the Houston Astros. Astros were widely expected to take RHP Mark Appel with the first overall pick. However they stunned many people taking SS Carlos Correa, who has drawn comparisons to A-Rod and Tulo. The Astros set the tone for the first round with that pick, as many up the middle players were picked. I was very curious to see to the Blue Jays were going to pick, hoping they were able to draft the players I wanted them to. I wanted the Blue Jays to select Lucas Giolito at 17 and Joey Gallo at 22. That didn’t happen, as the Nationals selected Giolito one spot a head of the Blue Jays, while Gallo was picked by the Rangers in the compensation round. Just because the Blue Jays didn’t get the players I thought they would, that doesn’t mean they didn’t get good players. Here’s a rundown of the two players the Blue Jays did select in the first round.

17th overall – D.J. Davis OF – Stone County HS

He was ranked as the 21^st overall prospect by MLB but his stock has been rapidly rising. His best tool is his speed; he is widely considered the fastest player in this draft. That speed makes him a huge asset on the bases and in center field. He is a gap to gap hitter not a lot of power, profiles as lead off type of hitter. I like this pick by the Blue Jays they get another speedy outfielder who if he reaches his potential could form a great outfield with Anthony Gose for the Blue Jays. Davis has been compared to Juan Pierre. As a high school guy he will be a tougher sign but I fully expect the Blue Jays to sign him.

22nd overall – Marcus Stroman RHP – Duke

I love this pick by the Alex Anthopolous and his scouts. Stroman was ranked as the 10th best player entering this draft. To get him at 22 is a huge steal. The knock on Stroman is his size, listed at 5’9” 185lbs. I don’t think size is a huge issue, sure you would want that guy at 6’6” but Stroman can still dial his fastball up to the mid-90’s, with late movement. He has a big power curve. He has been compared to Tom Gordon and profiles as a reliever in the MLB. He is expected to be the first player from this draft class to reach the majors. Scouts have said he could reach the bigs this year and help the Jays out of the bullpen very soon. That would be a huge benefit for the Blue Jays if he could reach the bullpen this season. The bullpen needs some work and Stroman may allow the Blue Jays to look elsewhere at the trade deadline, rather than looking at relievers. He will take some creativity to sign as he should ask for more money than slot 22 allows (1.8M).

Overall Alex Anthopolous did an excellent job with the players available to him. Davis and Stroman both project to be great player at the MLB level. I hope AA gets them signed so they can start their professional careers and hopefully reach that potential they have.

Comments are appreciated let me know how I’m doing and what I can improve on. You can follow me on twitter @PaulBerthelot Thanks.

BlueJays Draft Preview

2012-05-30T16:08:00.000-04:00

The MLB draft is less than a week away so I decided to do a preview for my homer team the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays have two picks in the first round (not counting the supplemental round), pick 17 and 22. I don’t claim to be a draft expert. This is the first year I have been really interested in the MLB draft. Because of that I will only preview those two selections that they Jays have because honestly I don’t know a lot about the players past the top 30. These are not players the Jays are going to pick or have been rumored to be picking just my opion of who they may take. The Blue Jays farm system is loaded with pitching prospects, with 8 of their top 15 prospects being pitchers. The rest consist of outfielders (headlined by Anthony Gose) and catchers (headlined by Travis d’Arnaud). In their top 15 they have 1 infield prospect short stop Adeiny Hechavarria. Every teams draft strategy should be to take the best player available and I agree with that 100%. The goal with the draft in my opinion is to draft the best player available and hopefully he fits in with your organizational needs. The Blue Jays could get lucky in that respect with this draft.

With the17th overall selection I feel the Jays should take RHP Lucas Giolito. Giolito was the best high school pitcher at the beginning of this season and had a chance to be the first HS pitcher ever taken first overall. But as you all know he suffered an elbow injury and was forced to miss the entire season. Giolito would be a gamble pick because teams have no idea about his health and if he will be the same pitcher again. Alex Anthopolous is known for taking risks in the draft. If Giolito can recover from the injury and get back to where he was pre injury the Jays will have an ace pitcher in the making, a steal at 17.

With the 22nd overall pick I feel the Jays should select 3B Joey Gallo. I know what people are thinking the Blue Jays have a young third baseman already in Brett Lawrie. This is true but these players are so far away you can’t think like that and pick based on position. Gallo has the most power in this draft. He fills a need in the Jays minor league system a big time power bat. As he gets closer to the bigs he may need a positional change may be necessary to fit him on the MLB roster but again this is a few years down the road. He likely will be the best player available to the Jays at 22 and he fills the need of power in the Jays system there is no reason not to take him at 22.

Both these players are high school guys which makes them perfect Anthopolous picks. He likes to take the riskier player with high upside over the safer pick with lower upside. Both these players are high risk high reward, but if they develop like scouts think they can the Blue Jays may just have their ace and cleanup hitter of the future.

Comments are appreciated let me know how I’m doing and what I can improve on. You can follow me on twitter @PaulBerthelot. Thanks

Taking Advantage of the Rule 5 Draft

2011-12-09T00:32:00.000-05:00

Are you a struggling team who doesn’t seem to have an all-star on the roster, are you a potential contender looking to add that last bullpen piece or role player but don’t want to spend big money on the 25^th man on you roster? If that sounds like your team then try the Rule 5 Draft.

The Rule 5 Draft is one of my favourite times in the baseball offseason. It’s a chance for teams to select players to play for their MLB teams in the upcoming season.

It gives teams the opportunity to select a player for their MLB team. Most rule 5 guys are role players, usually pinch runners or back up defenders. Pitchers tend to be hard throwers who usually end up being the last man in the pen or a lefty specialist. These players may not be stars but it is a great opportunity for the player and the team. As a player he gets the chance to play in the big leagues. Now yes most may never see the majors but at least they are given the opportunity to attend big league spring training and have the opportunity to make the team something they may not have without the rule 5 draft. The team has the potential and yes it’s a small chance but they have the chance to get a star player. Yes it’s highly unlikely that all stars are acquired via the rule 5 draft but for rebuilding teams like the Astros or Cubs it’s a worthwhile gamble. There have been 26 players who have made the all-star team who were once rule 5 pick, most notably Roberto Clemente, George Bell, Josh Hamilton, Johan Santana, and Joakim Soria.

It only cost $50,000 to select a player. For teams trying to rebuild provided that the rule 5 player won’t take another players spot is a worthwhile risk. The worst that can happen is that you’re out $25,000. Its like the lottery you’re not likely to win but it’s worth a shot.

I believe that the Rule 5 draft is underrated in today’s game and could be a tool if used effectively by GMs. Most teams don’t even select a player in the major league portion of the draft. Only 12 teams made a selection this year. I think that if teams did more scouting in preparation for this draft there would be many more diamonds in the rough found. If scouts focused on this draft as intently as they did the first year player draft I believe that many great players would come out of the Rule 5 draft. There have to be players in the minors who if given the opportunity would have success in the majors. Players with mechanical flaws in their batting stance, flaws in their pitching mechanics, that could be fixed with the help of MLB coaches. Scouts in my opinion need to be looking for players like this. If you could find a Roberto Clemente for $50,000, why not do everything you can to make that happen, especially for teams with little money. If you could get an all-star for $50,000 that would be huge for the team.

If I was a GM I would defiantly put resources into the Rule 5 draft and try to use it my advantage. You just never know if a player will figure it out when in Spring Training and you end up with that elite player you were looking for. If not hopefully you were able to get that bullpen arm or bench player you were looking for.

Commets are appreciated, let me know how I’m doing and what I can improve on. You can follow me on Twitter @PaulBerthelot and you can like Ol Ball Game on facebook as well. Thanks

Improving the Indians

2011-11-26T13:13:00.000-05:00

The Indians have done what I would love to do if given the opportunity to be a general manager. They have themselves a starting pitching staff of ground ballers. Their projected starting pitchers are as follows (in no particular order)

Pitcher	Ground Ball % (2011)
Josh Tomlin	38.2%
Justin Masterson	55.1%
Fausto Carmona	54.8%
Ubaldo Jimenez	47.5%
Derek Lowe	59.0%

In order for these pitchers to have success (with the exception of Tomlin) is to have the defence turn those groundballs into outs. The Indians as they currently stand are not in a good position to field groundballs.

Player (Position)	UZR (2011)
Matt LaPorta (1B)	-5.9
Jason Kipnis (2B)	-5.6
Asdrubal Cabrera	-11.8
Jack Hannahan	8.7

Only Hannahan is a good defender. I am going to give Kipnis the benefit of the doubt as he is a converted outfielder who should improve defensively as he plays more 2B. Signing Casey Kotchman (1.6 UZR in 2011, and widely considered an elite defender) would solve the first base issue. That just leaves short stop as the main hole in the Indians infield. I propose a blockbuster trade that would shake up the AL Central.

TRADE ASDRUBAL CABRERA TO THE CHICAGO WHITE SOX FOR ALEXI RAMIREZ

Why the Indians would do this.

Ramirez had an 11.9 UZR in 2011, which lead all shortstops. He has been an elite defender for the last few seasons. Ramirez would provide the Indians the short stop they need. The offence that they would lose with Ramirez will be made up for with his glove.

Why the White Sox would do this.

Ramirez hit just .269/.328/.399 last season and is a career .279/.323/.421. Cabrera hit .273/.332/.460 last season and is a career .281/.343/.414. The benefit for the White Sox in this trade is the additional offence they gain with Cabrera over Ramirez. Cabrera had more HR, RBI, runs, SB, doubles, and the same amount of walks in 2011. Put Cabrera in US Cellular field and he will be even better than he was with the Indians. The defence that the White Sox would lose with Cabrera would be made up for with his bat.

This blockbuster trade along with the signing of Casey Kotchman would give the Indians a much better chance to overtake the Tigers in AL Central.

Comments are appreciated let me know how I’m doing and what I can improve on. You can follow me on twitter @PaulBerthleot and like Ol Ball Game on Facebook. Thanks

Trade and Free Agent Targets for the Padres

2011-11-20T14:15:00.000-05:00

Petco Park home of the San Diego Padres is one of the toughest places to hit in all of the MLB. Pitchers love pitching there because of all the space. The Padres have two very good defensive outfielders in CF Cameron Maybin (9.5 UZR in 2011) and RF Will Venable (4.4 UZR in 2011). In order to make the following pitchers even more of a success in San Diego, the Padres need to get a left fielder that can also play excellent defence. This is fairly easy to do they just need to reunite with Tony Gwinn Jr (8.2 UZR in 2011). He along with Maybin and Venable will form one of the top if not the top defensive outfield in the MLB. This scenario would be heaven for fly ball pitchers. With that here are some starting pitching targets for the Padres. (Stats from 2011)

Free Agent Targets

Pitcher	ERA	Fly Ball %	HR/FB	HR/9
Bruce Chen	3.77	45.4%	8.1%	1.05
Javier Vazquez	3.69	46.1%	8.0%	0.98

Trade Targets

Colby Lewis (TEX)	4.40	49%	11.9%	1.57
Scott Baker (MIN)	3.14	44.7%	8.7%	1.00
Guillermo Moscoso (OAK)	3.38	55.5%	6.2%	0.98

Gambles

Scott Kazmir (2010)	5.94	43.8%	11.6%	1.50
Rich Harden	5.12	46.4%	15.6%	1.85

These starters would all have great success in Petco Park. Each of them gives up fly balls more than 40% of the time. Chen and Vazquez both already are successful pitchers and adding them to San Diego would make them even more effective.

For a guy like Lewis his ERA is high due to him pitching in the bandbox in Texas. If San Diego was able to acquire him his ERA would lower, his HR/9 would drop he would have much more success with the Padres. Baker and Moscoso both play in pitchers parks in Minnesota and Oakland, but the added effect of the defence San Diego could provide would make their number even smaller.

The gambles on Kazmir and Harden would be very high risk, very high reward. If Kazmir was able to return to the ace he was in Tampa, the Padres would love that. The risk is that he flops and costs the Padres games early in the year. He is a good gamble to take in my opinion. Harden has the stuff to be an ace. The issue with him throughout his career is injuries. If he can stay healthy for at least half a season, then the Padres could trade him at the deadline for a prospect.

Overall these fly ball pitchers would all have great success in San Diego. The only risk would be the money required to sign the players and the players given up in trades. In my opinion if I was a GM I would take a look at these guys and see if I could bring them into the organization. If they have success great, the Padres could be contenting with them. If they’re not contending, but success is happing for the pitchers, than deal them at the deadline for some younger talent. The opportunity cost of getting these players would be worth it for the Padres. The Padres don’t plan on contending this season so why not gamble on some players and see if you can?

Comments are appreciated let me know how I’m doing and what I can improve on thanks. You can follow me on twitter @PaulBerthelot and you can "like" Ol Ball Game on Facebook too.

Does CJ Wilson Deserve $82.5M???

2011-11-05T23:40:00.004-04:00

What do those two men above have in common, other than being struggling right handed pitchers in the AL East, is that they each signed contracts for 5 years $82.5milllion. I have been hearing rumours that another pitcher CJ Wilson is looking to join them in the $82.5 million club. This post here will analyze how Wilson stacks up to these pitchers, comparing careers before the contract and the walk year of the contract.

We will begin by looking at the players career before signing their big deal and see how Wilson stacks up.

Career before big deal was signed (Standard Stats)

Pitcher (Years, Seasons)	Won-Loss Record	ERA	Games/ Starts	Innings(IP)	Strikeout(SO)	Walks (BB)
Wilson(2005-2011, 7)	43-35	3.60	325/73	708.0	637	295
Lackey (2002-2009, 8)	102-71	3.81	234/233	1501.0	1201	441
Burnett (1999-2008, 10)	87-76	3.81	215/211	1376.1	1278	568

Obviously Wilson has fewer counting stats (Games, Starts, IP) because he has only been a starter for the last two seasons. That should help Wilson as his arm will be less taxed than the other two. Wilson will be the same age as Lackey was when he signed his deal (30, Burnett was 31), so age has no impact. I feel that since Wilson has pitched less that, which will help him to get $82.5M.

To put them on a more level playing field so we can make a better analysis of the numbers. Let’s look at the last two seasons before each pitcher signed their deals.

Pitcher	Starts/IP	ERA	WHIP	SO/9	BB/9	ERA+
Wilson (2010-2011)	67/427.1	3.14	1.215	7.9	3.5	142
Lackey (2008-2009)	51/339.2	3.79	1.251	7.1	2.3	117
Burnett (2007-2008)	59/387.0	3.93	1.267	9.5	3.5	110

Looking at those numbers it’s easy to see that Wilson is the best of those three pitchers. He had more starts, best ERA, best WHIP, and best ERA+. His strikeouts/per 9 are just a tad better than Lackey and his walks/per 9 are high but the same as Burnett’s. Looking at those numbers Wilson most definitely deserves $82.5M if not more.

There is one more set of numbers I want to look at, and that is each pitchers walk years. I want to look at walk years because of a personality trait called recency effect. Recency effect causes people to value others based off their most recent occurrence. So GM’s may have valued Burnett, Lackey and maybe Wilson based off their most recent season prior to free agency.

Pitcher	Starts/IP	ERA	WHIP	SO/9	BB/9	ERA+
Wilson (2011)	34/223.1	2.94	1.187	8.1	3.0	152
Lackey (2009)	27/176.1	3.83	1.270	7.1	2.4	115
Burnett (2008)	34/221.1	4.07	1.342	9.4	3.5	104

Clearly by those numbers Wilson is head and shoulders above Lackey and Burnett. The best ERA of the 3 by about a full run, the lowest WHIP, tied with Burnett for most starts (they both lead the lead in their respective seasons). His ERA+ destroys Lackey’s and Burnett’s. Looking at those numbers its fairly easy to see that Wilson definitely deserves at least $82.5M if not more.

Overall looking at the numbers, Wilson is far better than Lackey or Burnett. He has pitched the least amount because of his seasons as a reliever, but that definitely has helped to keep his arm fresh which should hopefully keep him off of the DL. To conclude, I feel that CJ Wilson when compared to AJ Burnett and John Lackey deserves at least the $82.5M that they got. I believe that Wilson should get even more than that. My prediction is that Wilson will get a 5 year $95million contract with an option for $20M.

Comments are appreciated let me what you think and how I can improve. You can follow me on twitter @PaulBerthelot and you can "like" Ol Ball Game on Facebook just click on the link. Thanks

Helping the Pirates Reach .500 and Beyond

2011-10-23T14:38:00.001-04:00

The Pirates as you all know have been terrible for a long time, 19 years to be specific. This season the baseball world thought this was going to change. The Pirates were good at the beginning of this season, not just .500 good but playoff contending good. They were leading the division for a while and even were buyers at the deadline. And of course being the Pirates their success didn’t last as they finished 72-90. This post I am going suggest changes that the Pirates could make in order to be contenders in 2012.

In order for the Pirates to be contenders in 2012 they need to get roughly 90 wins. So to reach that total the Pirates need to get 18 more wins. To generate those 18 extra wins they need to get player who will provide another 18 WAR. The Pirates are going to need to make many changes to improve.

The first area to improve upon is catcher. Here’s a breakdown of the catchers used in 2011.

Player	Games	Slash Stats	WAR (fan graphs)
Ryan Doumit	77	.303/.353/.477	1.8
Chris Snyder	34	.271/.376/.396	0.7
Michael McKenry	58	.222/.276/.322	0.1

So the Pirates catchers generated 2.6 WAR last season. I propose that the Pirates trade for Nick Hundley and sign Jose Molina. Here’s a look at what those two did last season.

Hundley	82	.288/.347/.477	3.3
Molina	55	.281/.342/.415	1.3

Hundley and Molina combined to be worth 4.6 WAR last season. So already the Pirates have improved by 2 wins. (Record now 74-88)

The Pirates do not have a starting first baseman going into 2012. Last season, Lyle Overbay began the year as their first baseman, but was replaced when Derek Lee was acquired at the deadline; Garrett Jones also played a large role at 1B. Here’s a look at their production in 2011.

Player	Innings	Slash Stats	WAR
Overbay	828	.227/.300/.349	-0.8
Jones	260	.243/.321/.433	0.9
Lee	238	.337/.398/.584	0.9

The Pirates first baseman generated 1 WAR last season.

The best way to improve on that would be go out and sign Price Fielder; however that’s unlikely, Carlos Pena however would be cheaper and would still represent an upgrade.

Pena

1258.1

.225/.357/.462

2.6

With Pena the Pirates would generate 1.6 additional wins. (Record now 75.6-86.4)

The Pirates have a solid middle infield tandem in Neil Walker (3.0 WAR), and Ronny Cedeno (1.4 WAR). Walker is a good player, he has a decent bat (.273/.334/.408 in 2011) and a below average glove (-3.2 UZR in 2011). Cedeno has no bat (career line of .249/.286/.353) but his glove at short (5.9 UZR in 2011) is why I want him in the lineup. I believe that both these players at least will be worth what they were last season.

Third base is a position that really hurt the Pirates last season. The Pirates used three players for a significant time at 3B last season.

Pedro Alvarez	549	.191/.272/.288	-0.8
Brandon Wood	377	.220/.277/.347	0.3
Josh Harrison	363	.272/.281/.374	0.9

The Pirates third basemen combined to be worth only 0.4 wins. This were the Pirates should make a splash and go after the big name free agent. I feel they should make run at Aramis Ramirez.

Ramirez

1241.1

.306/.361/.510

3.6

With Ramirez the Pirates would get an extra 3.2 wins. (Record now 78.8-83.2)

Much like third base right field was another area of concern for the Pirates. The Pirates again had three players play significant time in right field in 2011.

Garret Jones	659	.243/.321/.433	0.9
Matt Diaz	276	.259/.303/.324	-0.1
Xavier Paul	273	.254/.293/.349	-0.1

Those three men were worth 0.7 wins last season. A player who would improve on that would be Michael Cuddyer

Cuddyer

639.1

.284/.346/.458

3.1

With the addition of Cuddyer the Pirates would gain another 2.4 wins. (Record 81.2-80.8 at the .500 mark)

The Pirates are set in the center field with Andrew McCutchen (5.7 WAR) and Jose Tabata (1.0 WAR). McCutchen is one of the best young center fielders in the game and his WAR reflects that. His WAR has increased every year he has been in the bigs so next season I will expect that to continue. He has average increase 1.1 WAR a season. Let’s assume he will do that (which really isn’t asking a lot as he is only 26). So that will increase the Pirates record to 82.3-79.7. Tabata only played in 91 games last season and he is only 23. So an increase in WAR is realistic to expect. Tabata had 2.1 WAR in 2010 so I feel that if he stays healthy and plays in something like 140 games he should get around 2.8 WAR. That will improve the Pirates record to 84.1-77.9.

By only making 4 changes I have improved the Pirates by 12.1 wins. Now to reach that 90 win plateau the pitchers need to improve by just 5.9 wins.

I will begin with the bullpen

Pitcher	Innings	ERA	WAR
Tony Watson (L)	41	3.95	-0.4
Joe Beimel (L)	25.1	5.33	-0.7
Daniel McCutchen (R)	84.2	3.72	-0.3

Those three combined to be 1.1 win below a replacement level player last season. Even the Pirates get players who are simply replacement level then they will improve by 1 win. Here are three pitchers who are free agents and would represent an upgrade.

Todd Coffey (R)	59.2	3.62	0.5
George Sherril (L)	36	3.00	0.5
Javier Lopez (L)	53	2.72	0.7

These three pitchers combined for a 1.7 WAR. These pitchers because they are replacing players who combined to have -1.1 WAR, they give Pittsburgh another 2.8 wins. (Record 86.9-75.1)

The last area that needs improving is the starting rotation. Since we are at 86.9 wins we only need to improve the rotation by 3.1 WAR.

Here’s a look at the two pitchers that need to be replaced.

Ross Ohlendorf	38.2	4.82	-0.6
Kevin Correia	153.0	8.15	0.0

These two pitchers as you can see combined to have -0.6 WAR last season. Here are two pitchers who will provide similar innings but will be provide more WAR.

Dontrelle Willis	75.2	5.00	0.8
Bruce Chen	155.0	3.77	1.7

These two pitchers combined to be worth 2.5 wins last season. These two pitchers will provide the Pirates with an additional 3.1 wins, exactly the amount that was needed.

Those 3.1 wins push the Pirates record to 90-70, which should be enough to make the playoffs in 2012. I made 10 changes to the Pirates roster. Yes that is a lot and the price would be high, but the extra revenue the Pirates made from being in contention would be enough to offset the cost of the players.

Comments are appreciated, let know how I’m doing and what I can improve on. Thanks. You can follow me on twitter @PaulBerthelot and you can like Ol Ball Game on twitter just search Ol Ball Game.

How the Marlins can Contend in 2012

2011-10-08T21:27:00.003-04:00

There has been a lot of talk about the Marlins and how they need to have a great season this year. They are moving to Miami and finally have a new stadium. The Marlins went 72-90 finishing last in the NL East. Their goal this season is basically to be this year’s Diamondbacks. So I was looking at their roster and was wondering what needed to be done to make this turn around possible. I discovered that the Marlins starting pitchers are predominantly a ground ball inducing staff. Look at the potential first 4 starters next season (in order of highest groundball percentage).

Pitcher	Groundball Percentage	ERA	SIERA
Chris Volstad	52.3%	4.89	3.69
Ricky Nolasco	45.1%	4.67	3.64
Anibal Sanchez	44.3%	3.67	3.14
Josh Johnson*	45.7%	2.30	3.10

2010 Stats

As you can see each pitcher gets a ground ball over 40% of the time. Looking at those numbers it’s pretty easy to see that their starters should be having success based off the low SIERA’s but for some reason their ERA’s anywhere close to that. I looked into this and saw that their infield defence was rather unspectacular.

Player/Position	2011 UZR	UZR/150
Gaby Sanchez/1B	5.0	7.3
Omar Infante/2B	8.2	4.4
Greg Dobbs/3B	-4.8	-10.2
Hanley Ramirez/SS	-4.8	-10.0

Clearly they need help on the left side of their infield. Ramirez and Dobbs both cost the Marlins 4.8 runs last season. Neither of the two played a full season but if they had they would have combined to cost the Marlins 20.2 runs. I feel that for the Marlins to compete next season they need an upgrade defensively at third and shortstop.

Looking at the free agent market getting an upgrade at these positions shouldn’t be very difficult. I think the Marlins should sign Clint Barmes to play SS, and Kevin Kouzmanoff to play 3B.

Barmes with the Astros last season, posted a 7.9 UZR in his first 1000+ innings at SS since 2006. In 2006 then with the Rockies he had a 7.4 UZR and a 9.4 UZR/150 so that shows that last season was not a fluke year. Kouzmanoff posted a 0.6 UZR last season and a 1.4 UZR/150. Those numbers are very low due to the fact that this was his first season that he didn’t play 1000+ innings at third base. Looking back at previous seasons the numbers show he has been an excellent defender. In 2010 he posted 16.1 UZR and 17.5 UZR/150, and in 2009 his UZR was 7.5 and had a UZR/150 of 9.9. If he gets 1000 innings this season I expect him to have another excellent season defensively.

Now only Ramirez is under contract, Dobbs is a free agent. So Ramirez needs to find a new position. He is the Marlins best offensive player. I think he should switch to center field and replace Chris Coghlan. The defence of the outfields is not crucial because of the groundball pitchers. So Coghlan should go because he is the weakest hitter of the three Marlins outfielders.

Coglan hit .230/.296/.368 last season. Kouzmanoff had a very similar batting line .235/.284/.372. The Marlins are not going to lose much if any with having Kouzmanoff. Dobbs hit .275/.311/.389 last season. Barmes has a very similar line, .244/.312/.386.

With these changes the Marlins will have basically the same offensive output while greatly increasing their defence. I feel that if that if these players are acquired and can play like they have in the past then the Marlins will be a good team that should contend for the playoffs.

Comments are appreciated let me know how I’m doing and what I can improve on. Also you can follow me on twitter @PaulBerthelot You can like Ol Ball Game on facebook too

Defence Wins Championships

2011-08-20T15:31:00.001-04:00

Isn’t that the old saying that if you have a strong defence you will win. Now yes that’s term used widely in football but I feel that it can be applied to baseball as well. There has been a strong emphasis on defence in the last few years. Team have begun to realize the value having a strong defence. Defence really started to take off when the Rays had their magical run to the World Series in 2008. That’s when I really started to take a serious interest in defence. I started looking into defensive stats like ultimate zone rating (UZR).

I was looking through UZR leaders on fan graphs and I noticed that all three of the Diamondbacks outfielders, Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Gerardo Parra all rank in the top 3 of UZR at their outfield positions. Arizona has the best outfield defence in the league this season because of this. They have a cumulative UZR/150 of 51.2. This means that over 150 games Arizona’s outfield defence is saving about 51 runs. This is a huge improvement over last season when with the same 3 outfielders they posted a combined UZR/150 of 42.9. That improvement of 8.3 is a crucial reason that Arizona is in first place. That difference may not seem like a lot but consider this; an outfield defence would be the most beneficiary for pitchers who give up a lot of fly balls. An outfield may be excellent but if all the pitchers give up groundballs then that great outfield defence goes to waste.

This is why Arizona is in first place in the NL West. In 2010 Diamondback pitchers wasted their great outfield defence by giving up groundballs that went to infielders who were inferior defenders to the outfielders. The pitchers who are having the most success with the D’backs this season (ERA under 3.5) are the ones who are giving up the more fly balls than ground balls (min 50 IP).

Pitcher	ERA	GB%	FB%
J.J. Putz	2.84	41.8	44.3
David Hernandez	2.82	30.4	45.9
Micah Owings	2.65	36.8	45.8
Ian Kennedy	3.22	39.4	39.2
Josh Collmenter	3.47	33.1	47.9

Kevin Towers the GM has gotten tons of credit for rebuilding the D’backs bullpen. The 2010 D’backs had the majors’ worst bullpen ERA at 5.74 and this season it’s down by almost 2 runs to 3.76. That’s why many experts say they’re having success this year. That is true but the one thing that the experts fail to explain is why these new relievers are having success. That chart right there is the reason. Of the 5 guys listed above 3 were brought in by Towers to fix the bullpen, Putz and Owings were acquired via free agency Hernandez was acquired in a trade with the Orioles. Collmenter their fourth starter is a rookie who is getting his first opportunity in the majors and their ace Kennedy was already here when Towers took over the team.

Is this success sustainable? I say yes because defence doesn’t slump. There is no scientific way to prove this but you don’t hear announcers on TV saying things like “he’s in a slump defensively right now.” Some factors like age and declining speed can lead to defence declining, but Towers doesn’t need to worry about that for a long time. Upton (23), Young (27) and Parra (24) are all under 30 and are not close to losing speed and having diminished range. All Towers needs to do is add more fly ball pitchers and Arizona with these 3 gifted defensive outfielders will not only be fighting for championships this year but in future years as well.

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Signing Day

2011-08-16T00:25:00.001-04:00

This is a follow up post to my draft day post. With today being the signing deadline for drafted players (the deadline is midnight eastern), I figured the players that I discussed I should look at, and see if they signed and what they signed for.

Top 6 picks

In my previous entry I stated how crazy the first 6 picks were with players falling and teams selecting guys nobody thought they would (Mariners). I wanted to see how this worked out for each team and if they were all able to sign the players they picked despite most with high contract demands.

Gerrit Cole-Pirates- Signed for 8mil, great great deal for Pirates, got an excellent talent who has touched triple digits and didn’t have to break Strasburg’s deal to get it done. Cole was rumoured to be asking for 15mil.

Danny Hultzen-Mariners- Signed for 8.5mil over 5yrs, 6.35 signing bonus, max value of the deal could be 10.6mil. Good job by the Mariners to get their guy, they passed on players like Rendon who people thought might go here but they wanted Hultzen and got him.

Trevor Bauer- Diamondbacks- Signed a Major League deal worth $7million, the only player of the top 6 to sign before deadline day. He signed on July 25. I really like when players sign before the deadline. It’s really in both the teams and the players benefit to sign early. When a player signs early he is able to start playing right away, where as players who signs right at the deadline won’t be able to play this season. Players who do sign early have the extra season of professional ball under their belt. Bauer has already reached AA and there are rumours he may get a call to the MLB. He is getting valuable experience that the other top picks aren’t getting. I applaud him and the D’backs for getting s deal done early.

Dylan Bundy-Orioles Signed for 6.225, the Orioles got they guy they wanted and got a solid deal not quite as much as Cole or Bauer but right up there.

Bubba Starling-Royals Signed for 7.5mil, Royals had to get this kid signed no matter what it took, they passed on local product Albert Pujols, they couldn’t let Kansas guy Starling get away from them. He is the second 18yr old to sign for at least 7.5 mil, the first one being Bryce Harper last season.

Anthony Rendon-Nationals Signed for 7.2mill, the Nationals got the best college hitter on a good deal. He is more polished than Starling who got more money but Rendon coming out of college had less leverage.

Blue Jays Picks

The Jays had the second most picks with 5 in the first round and the supplemental round.

21-Tyler Beede- Did not sign, he now has to play college ball for 3yrs before he is draft eligible again, could be big changes to the CBA by then, should have taken the Jays offer (rumoured to be 2 million) he should have taken the money because he may not get that much in 3 yrs.

35-Jacob Anderson- Signed for $990K Good sign by the Jays they really like his bat to take him at 35

46-Joe Musgrove- Signed for $500K the player the exact same age as me got a good pay day. Wish I could say the same

53-Dwight Smith Jr- Signed for $800K solid signing got a pretty good player for cheap

57-Kevin Comer- Signed for 1.65mil was in the same situation as Beede but he didn’t follow Beede to Vanderbilt, good sign by the Jays who for a while looked they were going to miss on Beede and Comer.

74-Daniel Norris- Signed for 2mill, great deal for the Jays, Norris was considered the top HS lefty in the draft, was rumoured to be seeking 4mil good for Jays to get him for 2mil.

Other Notable Players/Signings

37-Zach Cone Signed for $873K, scouts laughed when he was selected but he got a good amount of money. Rangers must like him a lot.

39-Larry Greene Signed for 1million, as of 10:30 he has the highest bonus of any of the supplemental picks. You knew he was going to sign, he showed up at the draft, was the only one to do that. Hopefully he becomes a big leaguer and may inspire more players to come to draft day.

Josh Bell signed for 5mil by the Pirates, was considered the top HS hitter in the draft, was a tough sign which is why he fell to the second round, but good job for the Pirates who had an excellent draft getting Cole and Bell.

Clay Holmes a HS right-hander selected in the 9th round by the Pirates was given the highest bonus ever for a player selected in the 9th round. He signed for 1.2million. He has a big fastball his slider is decent but it’s not consistent. He was committed to Auburn.

Shawon Duston Jr 11 round pick by Cubs signed for 1.275million. He is a HS OF, is an athlete with great speed. Is the son of former MLB player Shawon Duston (surprise there).

Most of these later round picks, who sign for millions, are guys who are immensely talented but had leverage in negotiations and teams shied away from them. Many of them are first round talents.

My Thoughts on the Signing Deadline

I stated this above but I felt like its necessary to say again, the Pirates had one great draft. Getting the top college pitcher in Cole and the top HS hitter in Bell was excellent for the Pirates. If those two develop like they are expected to, they will be key pieces when the Pirates are contending.

The Mariners are building something special. They already have King Felix and rookie Michael Pineda, now with the signing of Hultzen they have a lefty to go in between them. They are following the path of the Giants developing home-grown front of the rotation starters. All the Mariners need is for Hultzen to develop into another ace and they need Dustin Ackley to carry the offence the way Buster Posey did last season for the Giants.

Now just a couple of thought on the Jays draft for Alex Anthopolous, links from twitter (via @wilnerness590).

AA was pleased with the overall signings. Had a lot of tough signs and managed to sign most of them. They considered taking Norris with the 21st pick. He is an absolute first round talent and his bonus reflects that. AA said that they could have signed Beede and Norris but at their (jays) value. When you make aggressive picks players are going to go unsigned.

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Why Brandon Morrow is a Top Starter

2011-08-12T14:52:00.000-04:00

I was looking at some numbers on fan graphs the other day, not looking for anything in particular just looking at pitching stats, surveying the leaderboards. I found something that I thought to be rather interesting. Brandon Morrow is having a sensational 2011 season. However he is not getting any recognition as being a great pitcher, because his greatness goes beyond the basic numbers. Looking at Brandon Morrow’s, 2011 season it seems rather unspectacular. He is 8-6 with a 4.51 era, an ERA+ of 91. He has a WHIP of 1.27 and a K/BB ratio of 3.16. He does lead the league in strikeouts per 9 with 10.5, which is excellent. If you go behind the basic numbers though you can see that he is one of the best pitchers in the league. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 2.90. Basically what FIP shows is how well a pitcher should be pitching based off what he can control (Ks, BBs, and HRs). His FIP is 14th in the league ahead of top of rotation starters like Felix Hernandez, Josh Becket, and David Price to name a few. That is a pretty compelling number, but the biggest reason that Morrow is one of the best pitchers in the league is his SIERA. SIERA is a new stat created Matt Swartz. It is a very complex statistic. For a full explanation visit the link http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10027. Matt explains it all in there. SIERA stands for Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average, and it estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck. SIERA accounts for how run prevention improves as ground ball rate increases and declines as more whiffs are accrued, while grounders are of more materiality for those who allow a surplus of runners.

SIERA accomplishes the following: (this is taken from the article linked above)

Allows for the fact that a high ground-ball rate is more useful to pitchers who walk more batters, due to the potential that double plays wipe away runners.
Allows for the fact that a low fly-ball rate (and therefore, a low HR rate) is less useful to pitchers who strike out a lot of batters (e.g. Johan Santana's FIP tends to be higher than his ERA because the former treats all HR the same, even though Santana’s skill set portends this bombs allowed will usually be solo shots).
Allows for the fact that adding strikeouts is more useful when you don't strike out many guys to begin with, since more runners get stranded.
Allows for the fact that adding ground balls is more useful when you already allow a lot of ground balls because there are frequently runners on first.
Corrects for the fact that QERA used GB/BIP instead of GB/PA (e.g. Joel Pineiro is all contact, so increasing his ground-ball rate means more ground balls than if Oliver Perez had done it, given he's not a high contact guy).
Corrects for the fact that FIP and xFIP use IP as a denominator which means that luck on balls in play changes one's FIP.

Morrows SIERA is 3.02, which is the 8th in the league and second in the AL to Justin Verlander. This shows how good a pitcher Morrow is, he should have an ERA right around 3.00. Of course immeasurable factors like luck are why his ERA is 4.51, but this is very compelling evidence as to how good Morrow is. The Blue Jays have themselves a very strong young pitcher on their hands. Hopefully the Jays front office realizes this and can get him locked before another teams realizes how great he is and trys to get him.

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Winners and Loser of the Trade Deadline

2011-08-01T19:36:00.000-04:00

The non-waiver trade deadline passed at 4 o’clock yesterday afternoon. There were not many trades that went right down to the deadline. Just minor trades were made. The blockbuster trades as few as there was, were made before July 31. In my previous post I outlined why it was good and bad to be a buyer or a seller. Some teams fell into the trap and make some of the buying mistakes I suggested they should avoid. Other teams make some of the selling mistakes I outlined and that may hurt them in the long run. Now I will outline the winners and losers of the 2011 trade deadline.

Starting with the American League

Winners

Texas Rangers- Their bullpen needed an upgrade after losing Frank Francisco and Naftali Feliz struggling this season. They went out and acquired the help they needed. They traded two prospects Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin to the Padres for Mike Adams. Adams gives them some stability in the 8th inning and a great bridge to Feliz. They also acquired Koji Uehara from the Orioles for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter. This was a steep price to pay for another reliever but Texas’ window for winning is right now and they needed to make this move. Overall I felt like they had an excellent deadline acquiring these two arms and feel like they have an even better shot at winning the AL West.

Mariners- I felt like they had a solid deadline. They were obviously sellers after losing 17 games in a row. They did what I suggested sellers should do, they got prospects for their veterans and cashed in on career years from a guy like Doug Fister.

White Sox- They acquired Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart from the Jays for Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen. The White Sox did a good job getting salary relief, getting a very good reliever in Frasor and a good prospect in Stewart. This trade is able to help them this season and in future seasons.

Blue Jays- They made what I felt like to be one of the best trades of this deadline. They aquried Jackson and Teahen as stated above. They then traded Jackson along with Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, and Corey Patterson to the Cardinals for Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet, and P.J. Walters. The Jays gave up very little in this deal and acquired a very talented young player in Rasmus. They were able to make this trade because Rasmus had fallen out of favour with manager Tony LaRussa. This was a great trade for young GM Alex Anthopolous who is starting to become a bit of a legend.

Orioles- Did an excellent job getting two MLB players in Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis for middle reliever Koji Uehara. Davis made Derek Lee expendable and the Orioles did a good job flipping Lee to the Pirates for Aaron Baker.

Losers

Athletics- They did do a good job of aquireing Brandon Allen and Jordan Norberto from the Diamondbacks for Brad Ziegler, but overall they were losers. I though Oakland would have been much busier this deadline as they had so many veteran player. Josh Willingham, Hideki Matsui, and other relievers should have been moved for prospects. But I guess Billy Beane feels the potential draft picks will be worth more than the prospects.

Indians- They illustrated my point perfectly on why it’s bad to be a buyer. The first trade they made was a perfect one for a surprise contender. They traded Abner Abreu and Carlton Smith for Kosuke Fukudome. This was a good trade that helped the MLB team without risking their future. The Indians also traded Orlando Cabrera to the Giants for Thomas Neal. This was another good trade they got a solid AAA player for a veteran who no longer was needed. Those two trades would have made the Indians winners but they made one blockbuster trade that makes them a loser. They acquired Ubaldo Jimenez from the Rockies for Joe Gardner, Alex White, Matt Mcbride and a play to be named later. The PTBNL is going to be top pitching prospect Drew Pomeranz who will be dealt when he is eligible in August. The Indians did get an ace pitcher on a team friendly contract, but Ubaldo has pitched in high altitude his whole career. He is very likely going to get hurt very soon, there was too much risk involved in this trade which is why the Indians are losers this year. They should not have risked the future for a chance to win now.

Red Sox- Only acquired Eric Bedard who probably isn’t going to be a fit there. He is a left handed oft injured pitcher who is bound to get hurt again. The Red Sox needed rotation depth but should have looked at more established starters. We will have to see what they do in August before we can say the Red Sox are true losers, but as of right now with that trade they were a loser at the trade deadline.

The Angels, Rays, and Yankees, are all contending teams who didn’t make any moves and I consider them all to be losers. Honestly I don’t feel any team is that complete that no trades were needed. Every team has some hole, which should be addressed at the deadline.

The Twins were a team who are not contending and didn’t make any moves. If your team is out of the race and no veterans were traded that is not good. Then only reason to keep these players is if the GM wants the draft picks at the end of the season if they leave via free agency. There are many risky variables that could result in not getting the picks so I would take my chances and trade the player for a prospect further developed.

And the National League

Winners

Giants- The Giants made one of the biggest trades of the deadline. They traded Zack Wheeler who was their top pitching prospect for the best hitter on the market Carlos Beltran. This is exactly why it’s good to be a buyer. The Giants are in win now mode and have to make these types of trades. They needed to add to their offence and they were able to do just that with the Beltran trade. They also acquired a good veteran player with playoff experience in Orlando Cabrera. He will bring leadership to that team. These trades along with the stellar Giants rotation makes this team look awfully strong with a good chance to repeat as world champs.

Diamondbacks- They had a pretty good deadline from my perspective. They currently sit just 2 games back of the Giants in the NL West and 3.5 back of the Braves for the wildcard. They went out and acquired Brad Ziegler who helps their bullpen. They also acquired rotation depth in the form of Jason Marquies who they acquired from the Nationals for prospect Zach Walters.

Rockies- They are winners because they were able to get 4 top prospects for Ubaldo Jimenez who is destined to break down shortly. It may not be this season but very soon I wouldn’t be surprised to Ubaldo go down with a significant arm injury.

Astros- Yes this is surprising but I’m putting the Astros as winners because I feel like they are rebuilding the right way. They traded Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn and got back 7 prospects to help them in the future. The one fault in the Bourn trade was they did not get one of the Braves four pitching prospects. I feel like one of those four would have been nice but the Astros did a solid job for the time that they had, and it’s a lot better to make this trade now, rather than keep Bourn and have him leave via FA after 2012.

Cardinals- The Cardinals had a good deadline in my perspective. They had a need at SS and went out and got Furcal from the Dodgers. They had a whole in their bullpen and went out and got Zep, and Dotel. They had a hole in their rotation and they went out and got Jackson. It was a steep price to pay for zap, Dotel and Jackson in Rasmus but LaRussa didn’t want him and he was losing playing time anyway.

Pirates- The Pirates did an excellent job to improve their team without risking the future. Exactly what I suggested a team in their position do. The picked up Ryan Ludwick for a PTBNL, and they got Derek Lee for minor leaguer Aaron Baker. These were two nice additions that will help upgrade the Pirates offence.

Phillies- They are another one of those teams in win now mode. They already have a very strong team that needed little improvement. So what did they do they went out and got the second best hitter on the market Hunter Pence. They did give up top prospects to get Pence but it is worth it for the Phillies who have a chance at the title this season.

Braves- Much like the Phillies they are in win now mode as well. The acquired another great hitter in Bourn. The Braves did exceptionally well not to give up any of their top 4 pitching prospects in the deal.

Mets- Another seller who did a good job at the deadline. They got the Giants top pitching prospect Zach Wheeler, for Beltran. They also rid themselves that was the mess of Frankie Rodriguez. I would have liked to have seen a guy like Scott Hairston go but he wouldent have brought back a whole lot anyway.

Losers

Dodgers- For a bankrupt team you would have thought more deals would have been made trying to shed payroll. They really only traded Rafael Furcal to the Cardinals for 2.5mil and Alex Castellanos. This was a solid trade but I would have liked to have seen more moves made by them.

Padres- I put the Padres here for similar reasons as the why the Dodgers are here. Not enough trades were made. The Padres had 3 relievers (Heath Bell, Mike Adams, and Chad Qualls) who I thought should have been traded. They did a good job getting Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin for Adams, but they have gotten more prospects. The Padres did a have a good run last season but they need to go young and the best way to do that is to trade veteran players for prospects. That’s something they didn’t do and they are a trade deadline loser for that.

Brewers- They went into the deadline looking for left side of the infield help. They came out of it with Jerry Hairston Jr. and Felipe Lopez, and that pretty much explains why they are losers. The Brew Crew currently sit 2.5 games up on the Cards for first in the NL central and they need to make a move to greater improve their team. Yes I know they are short on prospects after gutting their system for Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum in separate trades this past off season. Even someone cheap like Orlando Cabrera would have been an upgrade over what they have. Currently they have Yuniesky Betancourt as their everyday shortstop. He is considered to be one of the worst everyday players in the game. The Brewers are not going to go far with Betancourt as their SS, they needed to improve on that and they didn’t.

Cubs- They had some good players who could have been moved for solid prospects. But Kerry Wood and Aramis Ramirez had no-trade clauses and both said they did not want to leave. The veterans they did have, they didn’t move like Carlos Pena and Marlon Byrd. They are a prime example on why it’s bad to be a seller. They held on to all of their veterans and that is not the right way to rebuild. The Cubs did aquire 2 prospects from the Indians for Kosuke Fukudome, but they need more, so they can go young and build around young budding SS Starlin Castro.

The Reds fall into the same category as the Rays, Angels and Yankees stated above.

The Marlins really didn`t do anything this deadline as they are keeping this team together for when they open their new stadium. I don’t mind them staying pat as they have a good core they just need them not to struggle like they have this year.

This turned out to be a very exciting trade deadline, with lots of trades and rumours swirlling around.

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The Good and Bad for Buyers and Sellers at the Trade Deadline

2011-07-26T21:24:00.001-04:00

The trade deadline is one of the best times in the baseball calendar. Whether a team is a buyer or a seller, the trade deadline is essential to teams’ success. Obviously teams would like to be buyers because that means you in playoff contention, but being a seller isn’t all bad. It actually can be quite good for a struggling franchise. With that here are the reasons its good (and bad) to be a buyer or a seller.

Buyer

Why it’s good – If a team is a buyer that means that they are in a playoff race. Those teams are looking for that one piece to complete the team or that piece to push a border line team over the top. There are usually not that one huge superstar like Carlos Beltran on the market. When there is a superstar that is acquired it have a huge impact on the playoff race. One of the best examples of this being CC Sabathia in 2008 with the Brewers. CC carried the Brewers going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 7 complete games in 17 starts down the stretch. Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies can make these types of trades because one they have the money needed to pay the big contracts; and two have the top prospects needed to acquire these stars. These teams are willing to risk their future because those teams want to win now. All they want is the World Series title and will risk potential superstars to get a current one.

Why it’s bad – The worst thing the front office of a buying team can do is not acquire anyone. This is bad because every team has holes. Very very few teams have ever been built to perfection. GM’s are always looking to make their team better. Now not making any trades is bad it can prevent much worse things from happening. Not making trades prevents teams from trading top prospects for a 2 month rental. Trading top prospects is fine for teams that are in win now mode but for surprise teams like the Pirates or Indians it can be devastating. Both the Pirates and Indians were not expected to contend for another couple of seasons. Risking future contention for one year is the wrong move. It is not going to help the future of the franchise to trade 6 years of a potential superstar for 2 months of a current one. Teams in these situations should hold their prospects and wait for them to develop. Then when those prospects reach the majors and the team is contending, that is when the team should go out and acquire that piece to complete the team. Until then just keep your prospects.

piece to complete the team. Until then just keep your prospects.

Seller

Why it’s bad – Clearly if a team is a seller that means they are doing poorly. Whether that was expected or if the team underperformed, either way it’s not the best position to be in as a GM. When a team is selling that means they are trying to trade their veteran players who usually will be free agents at the end of the season. The immediate impact of this is that the team, already underperforming will in most cases get worse. Doing worse yes is bad but it can be tolerated if a good prospect or two can be acquired. Getting a good prospect can be a very difficult task for a GM. Every team has a value that they put on their players and players in other organizations. Knowing that selling teams have to try and make teams overpay for their players. This is now just simple economics, the more teams that are interested the higher the price will be. This is very difficult to do because if other players that are out there that are better than your player then the price will be lower. If enough alternatives are available then teams may be stuck with that veteran who will leave at seasons end.

Why it’s good – Being a seller is very good for a struggling club. As said in the bad it is quite difficult to get a good prospect if other better players are available. But if a team is lucky enough to possess the best player on the market than maximum value can be gotten fairly easily. Majority of buying teams will trade 1-2 top prospects for a rental. Prospects are very important for a rebuilding team. Not all prospects will succeed, but the more you have the more likely that one will succeed in the Majors. The higher the prospect is rated the likelier he is to have MLB success. The best way to acquire these prospects is to trade veterans at the deadline. The best thing about trading for a prospect is that they are much closer to the big leagues than say a top draftee. When a player is drafted it may take 4-5 years before he makes the majors. When a prospect is acquired via trade he is further along in his development and much closer to majors. In some case the player may be MLB ready or only 1 year away. These players will be able help the team much quicker than a drafted player.

In conclusion being a buyer and a seller can be both and bad, the best thing a team can do evaluate the position they are in and make proper decisions that will help the franchise in both the short term and the long term.

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Second Half Story Lines

2011-07-21T21:02:00.000-04:00

The second half is about a week old, and with the first half gone most teams understand their potential playoff chances. Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox know that they have a good chance of making the playoffs, while teams like the Royals know that they have no realistic shot of playing in October. And of course you have teams that are stuck in the middle like the Twins. Even if your team isn’t going to make the playoffs that doesn’t mean you should stop watching them and stop following the MLB. With that here are my top 2 story lines to follow for the second half.

1. Will Pittsburgh and Cleveland maintain their strong first halves and make the playoffs.

These teams had 105 and 93 losses respectively last season. These teams have suffered for more than their fair share. Pittsburgh has had 18 straight losing seasons. Cleveland hasn’t won the World Series in 62 years. With a strong first half the Pirates (50-44 1st in the NL Central) and Indians (55-44 1st in the AL Central) have shown that they are not a flash in the pan are the real deal. The fun now begins for the fans of these teams. Both teams are in tight divisional races and both are buyers at the deadline this year. They are both looking for the piece the will help them down the stretch. It’s going to be a great finish in the Centrals this year, and I’m sure the fans are excited.

2. The MVP races.

In the NL Prince Fielder has a strong case to be made as the MVP, but what’s really intriguing is where Andrew McCutchen finishes. He is having a strong year (.279/.379/.448) and is widely regarded as one of the best if not the best defensive center fielder in the game. He is the star of a very surprising Pirates team that is right in the thick of the NL central race. He is definitely valuable to the Pirates. Without him they are not in first place fighting for a playoff spot. It will be really interesting to see how many MVP votes he gets. Another player to follow this second half is Matt Kemp. He is having his best season of his career, this after his worst season worst season as a big leaguer last season. He has 24 homeruns and 27 stolen bases in 97 games. He is on pace for 41 HR and 46 SB which would make him the fifth player ever to have a 40-40 season, and the first since Alfonzo Soriano in 2006. If Kemp has this historical season shouldn’t he be the MVP. Many fans will say yes, but the voters will look to the fact that the Dodgers are 4th place in the NL West. That shouldn’t matter but it does in the eyes of the voters, making the MVP race one to follow in the second half.

In the AL the MVP race is much closer than the NL race. But that doesn’t mean it won’t still be interesting to follow. The clear leader statistically is Jose Bautista with a .332/.465/.691 slash line. That OBP and SLG are both league leading. He has 31 HR and 75 walks, both of which are also currently leading the league. The argument against Bautista is the same one as with Kemp. Bautista plays for a 4th place Jays team that has no shot of making the playoffs. Voters will likely lead towards Adrian Gonzalez who leads the league in batting average (.337), hits (130), and RBI’s (78). He trails Bautista in OBP .465-.400 and SLG .691-.513. Clearly based on pure numbers Bautista is having a far better season but Gonzalez is more “valuable” in the eyes of the voters, making the AL MVP race an intriguing one to follow this second half.

Changing the All Star Game

2011-07-15T14:53:00.000-04:00

There is quite a bit wrong with the All Star game. As I was watching the game on TV I grew so tired of the announcers saying that Bruce Bochy was going to play match ups and focus really hard on trying to win, because as you know this one counts. But really this game doesn’t count. Yes it decides home field advantage for the World Series, but do you really think the players care about that. Do you believe that a guy like Jose Bautista is going to go out there and kill himself trying to win this game. His Blue Jays are in fourth place and have no shot of going to the World Series. I grew so tired of the announcers saying how intense this game was. This game was not intense at all; look at what Heath Bell did when he came into the game. He sprinted in from the bullpen and slid into the mound. That was just hilarious and showed how little intensity there was in this game. If this was a regular season game he would not have done that players take season games seriously, Bell showed us what this game is supposed to be about fun. With that here are my ways to fix the all-star game.

Get rid of the stupid this game counts

Home field advantage in the World Series should not be decided by a meaningless game in July. Home field advantage should go to the team with the best record in the regular season. Now people say this is unfair since teams don’t play the same schedule and all that stuff, but it’s probably the fairest way to do it. It’s rewarding the team who played the best over the entire season. It’s also better than the previous way home field advantage was decided before it was decide by the All Star game. Previously it just alternated each year back and forth, the American League was in odd years and the National League was the even years. That way was fine but really the team with more wins should get home field advantage.

Change the Homerun Derby

The homerun derby needs to be changed. The derby is great, I enjoy it but more players need to be involved. I don’t think that more players should be added to the derby, but what I would like to see done is have more skills competitions other than just the derby. First I think the derby needs to be shortened so we can have more competitions. I feel that players in the derby should be cut in half so we have 4 players two from the AL and two from the NL. Also there needs to be less outs, 10 are far too many, it should be cut down to 5. With only four competitors the derby would only be 2 rounds. Of the four who are involved the top two obviously move on and the winner of that round is the homerun derby champion.

New Skills Competitions are needed.

It would be great to see some other skills showcased other than just power. I would like to see a competition in involving defence and speed. For a defence competition, you have a fast runner on second (like a Matt Kemp) and you then have a player with a cannon of an arm in right field (like Bautista). You than have a coach hit the ball out to right field and the fielder has to try to throw out the runner coming home. If the runner is out a point is scored for the defence and if the runner beats the throw there league gets a point.

This would be exciting and fun to watch because what’s more exciting than a play at the plate not much in my opinion. Of course safety precautions would need to be taken, tell the runners not to collide with the catcher and tell the catchers not to block the plate. Overall I feel like this would be great to see.

If more events are being added there must be some form of speed event. Something like a race around the bases or a race to first base, something that all the players could compete in. It could be done by positions to keep it fair. There also could be a stolen base event. Have the catchers see if they can try and throw out some of the games fastest players. The stolen base is another very exciting play that I feel people would enjoy watching during an all-star skills competition.

There has been no talk about this actually happening but still I feel some changes are need to the all-star game and the homerun derby, and who knows maybe Bud Selig has something up his sleeve for next season.

Comments are appreciated; let me know how I’m doing and what I can improve on. Thanks.

Fixing the Jays Second Base Issue

2011-07-07T22:39:00.001-04:00

I really don’t like Aaron Hill. He just isn’t any good in my opinion. He did have a great year in 2009 when he hit 36 homeruns drove in 108, hit .286, slugged .499, but even with all that he only had an on-base percentage of .330. That is not great but acceptable when you’re hitting with the type of power Hill showed. The next season Hill regressed badly he slumped to a .205/.271/.394 and this season so far though July 7^th it’s not looking much better (.242/.281/.341). I really think that Hill needs to be replaced in the Jays line-up. There is one players that I would really like to see get a shot at the second base. That guy is Mike McCoy. Now before you all go nuts saying I’m crazy let’s have a look at some numbers: (Stats through July 7).

Player A vs. RHP- .232/.340/.351 in 228 At Bats

Player B vs. RHP- .233/.340/.372 in 43 At Bats

Yes player A has far more at AB’s but the way I look at it player A is probably not going to change a whole lot. That’s the player they are going to be the whole season. Player B on the other hand may not have peaked and with more AB’s may have a chance to be even better.

Which player would you take? Too close to call let’s look at some more numbers.

Player A Salary for 2011- 5.5 million

Player B Salary for 2011- 422,300

If I was a general manager based of those numbers and salary numbers I would take player B. He does have less AB’s but has performed to basically the same batting line vs. RHP (the majority of the pitcher in the league are right handed) for 5 million dollars less.

Player A is Dustin Pedroia and Player B is Mike McCoy.

I bet that shocked a few of you. Yes Pedroia has far more at bats but still Mike McCoy has basically the same batting line versus righty pitching as Dustin Pedroia. This is quite telling, Pedroia is widely considered one of the best second basemen in the league. Yet the Jays can get similar production from a guy nobody has heard of. The Blue Jays should realize that they have a pretty good player on their hands in McCoy. He should be the starter over Hill. The Jays should see what McCoy can do if given the everyday job, at worst he can’t be much worse than Hill. I don’t want McCoy to come in here and be the leadoff guy, I want him to come in and be the second leadoff hitter in the nine spot. The Jays have multiple players who do the same thing as Hill which is low average and no on base skills, most notably Edwin Encarnacion (.240/.270/.395) and JP Arencibia (.212/.278/.428). McCoy gives them the chance to have someone who will take a walk and get on base a decent clip. Batting him ninth would allow him to get on base and help the set the table for the top of the line-up. The Jays more than likely are not going to do this but really there is no risk involved and they might as well try something as they don’t have hope of making the playoffs, so really why not? You could have a hidden gem.

Comments are appreciated let me know what you think, and how I can improve, thanks.

Yunel Escobar should be an All-Star

2011-07-05T20:20:00.000-04:00

The All-Star teams we announced on Sunday. As expected Yunel Escobar did not make it. I feel that he should have made it. Yunel Escobar is the short-stop for the Toronto Blue Jays for those of you who don’t follow baseball up here in Canada. He is an exceptional baseball player having a great season for the Blue Jays. I fully believe that he should be an all-star this season but he was snubbed. The two SS that did make it were Derek Jeter, and Asdrubal Cabrera. Escobar is a better player than both of these guys yet even if one of them can’t play in the All-Star game, for whatever reason, he won’t even be picked as a replacement because people feel that Johnny Peralta deserves it. Escobar has a .363 on-base percentage which is second among AL SS by .002 to the Tigers Peralta. He’s fourth in hits with 86, 1 behind Peralta and 14 behind the leader Cabrera. He leads AL SS with 35 walks, 12 ahead of Jeter and Peralta, and 15 ahead of Cabrera. What Escobar loses in hits he makes up for with his walks. This is a homer post as I have had the pleasure of watching Yunel every day, the numbers show that he may not be the best SS in the AL as I had thought but he is still one of the best and destroys Jeter in everything. I don’t want this to turn into a Jeter bashing post but I really think that Escobar should be their over Jeter. Heck Peralta should be there over Jeter. I don’t like this life time all-star crap, like if we wanted life time all-stars then why don’t we bring in Hank Aaron or another life time all-star and have them play. I also don’t like the “this is who the fans want to see.” Really when it comes down to it only Yankee fans want to see Jeter. Every team’s fans wants to see their guy in the game. Jeter only makes it because New York is so populated that they can out vote other teams fans. If this game is supposed to “count” I don’t want Derek Jeter and his .236/.320/.320 on my team. I have to believe that Ron Washington the manager of the AL squad feels the same way. If I’m picking a team of all-stars and I’m trying to win I’m taking Escobar, but if I want lots of fans to be happy I’m taking Jeter. And clearly MLB is taking the latter and going with the fans, and this should not be in a game that should “count.”

Comments are appreciated. Let me know how I’m doing, what I can improve on, thanks.

2011 MLB Entry Draft

2011-06-07T21:47:00.000-04:00

I watched the first round and complementary round and it amazing to watch. I loved it. The MLB draft is so much different from the other three sports in the big 4 (NFL, NHL, and NBA). With the other three General Managers pick players that will help the club, guys that will have an immediate impact. It’s not like that for the MLB draft the guys that are being drafted; almost all of them won’t have an impact in the MLB for at least 2 years. Many draft picks take anywhere from 2-6 years to reach the majors. A lot can happen in that span, a player could get hurt, lose confidence, get into drugs and alcohol, etc. That’s why the MLB draft is such a gamble you never know how these players are going to perform years down the road. With that being said here is my take on the 2011 MLB First Year Player Draft.

A Crazy First 6 picks

This was a wild first 6 picks. Many experts had the top 3 picks like this: Pirates taking UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole. The Mariners taking Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon, and the Diamondbacks taking Trevor Bauer. Now of course this did not happen. The Pirates did take Cole and the D’Backs took Bauer but the Mariners surprised everyone and took Danny Hultzen a LHP out of Virginia. With the Orioles on the clock I expected them to take Rendon because many expecte predicted they would take Hultzen, but of course that didn’t happen. The O’s took high school RHP Dylan Bundy. The Royals then had a tough decision ahead of them do they take Rendon the top college hitter or take the local HS kid Bubba Starling. The Royals infamous for passing on local product Albert Pujols 12 times!!! The Royals were not about to pass on another local kid and took Starling. The Nationals must have been surprised that Rendon fell to them. But they will take it and did selecting him 6^th overall.

Thoughts on Blue jays Draft picks

The Jays had 6 picks in the first round and compensation round, second only to the Tampa Bay Rays. They held the 21^st, 35^th, 39^th, 46^th, 53^rd, and 57^th.

21-Tyler Beede-RHP-HS- He is committed to Vanderbilt and will be a tough sign. He has a strong arm, sitting at 91-92. Has good mechanics for a HS kid. Like the pick by AA, taking the best player available.

35- Jacob Anderson- OF-HS- Big Power guy, he was rated very highly and the experts on TV were a little surprised he was taken this high. The Jays scouts must like his bat a lot to draft him high.

46- Joe Musgrove-RHP-HS- He was a football player in school. He has a big body 6’5 230lbs which should hold up to the rigors of pitching every fifth day. Neat point he and I are exactly the same age, both of us born on December 4, 1992.

53- Dwight Smith Jr.- OF-HS- He is son of former major leaguer of the same name. He grew up around the game and has benefited from that. Has a professional approach at the plate but not a lot of power.

57- Kevin Comer-RHP-HS- You can start to see a trend developing here, another big body pitcher (6’3 205). Clearly AA feels big pitchers are the way to go. Comer is another Vanderbilt recruit.

Notable Second round pick

74- Daniel Norris-LHP-HS – Widely considered the best HS lefty in the draft. Slipped to the second round because of sign ability concerns (is said to be seeking 4 million). The Jays do have money to spend and may have enough to sign him. It’s a good gamble to take and if he doesn’t sign the Jays get this pick back next draft.

Alex Anthopolous was very aggressive this draft. He stayed true to his word and took the best player available, rather than the player with the fastest rack to the majors. AA looked for players with high ceilings. He took players who will cost money to sign, but the Jays have money to sign after unloading the Vernon Wells contract. Yes most of that will go towards Jose Batista new contract but the rest of it will go towards the draft.

Other notes from the first round

It was really nice to see Larry Greene actually there. He was selected 39^th overall by the Phillies. It was great to see him shake hands with everyone there and get the jersey. Nice to see him so happy when his name got called. And to share that moment with his dad such a special moment for him.

Scouts actually laughed when Zach Cone was selected 37^th overall. Keith Law reported this (via twitter). That is hilarious I mean really this kid may amount to nothing but he may be a hall of famer. That’s the excitement of the draft we just don’t someone may not be good now but the Rangers obviously see something in him to draft him so highly.

The Good and Bad of Interleague Play

2011-05-21T21:46:00.000-04:00

Interleague play began yesterday. I am not one of those people who hate interleague play. I actually quite enjoy it. I do however see some flaws in the interleague system like the unbalanced schedule (that really should be changed, one division should all play the same interleague team. It’s unfair for some teams to have to play the Pirates and others to play the Phillies.) And I understand why people may dislike interleague. But there are some good things about interleague play; here is why I like it

Pitchers Batting

I love watching AL pitchers batters hit it’s so enjoyable to see. It looks like they just have no idea how to hit (some probably don’t) and I love it. There is such innocence to pitchers when they bat. You see them look so confident and intimidating on the mound but when they arrive at the plate with a bat they lose that confidence. In most cases pitchers are automatic outs, AL pitchers hit just .105/.134/.120 in 2010. Despite that terrible line you can’t help but root for the AL pitcher to get a hit. When in the rare cases when they do get a hit it’s so exciting to see.

The stars of the opposing league

As a Jays fan living in Canada it’s very rare to see a team outside of the Jays on TV. When there is another game it is usually an AL team like the Yankees or Red Sox. It’s great to see the stars of the NL playing against my favourite team. Last season the Jays played the Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres, San Fran Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies, and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Jay’s fans got to see some of the best NL stars like: Troy Tulowitzki, Tim Lincecum, Albert Pujols, and Ryan Howard to name a few. Those NL teams also got to see Jose Bautista in the midst of his historic 54 homerun season. Its god for fans to see the other leagues stars, it’s great to see players that you don’t normally get to see. More fans may come to the ball park and watch games when they can see guys like Pujols or Tulo. More fans in the park is always a good thing for the team and MLB.

And what I dislike about Interleague

Managers not letting pitchers hit

This really is taking what I like about interleague play and throwing out of the park. I understand late in a game you go to the pinch hitter. Especially with AL teams when they have (most of the time) their DH sitting on the bench. I also get sac bunting with the pitcher when guys are on base that’s perfectly fine with me but I hate when with nobody on base and the pitcher up the manager just tells him to stand there and take pitches until you’re out that’s just stupid. I mean pitchers batting is what I love about interleague, and I don’t like to see it get taken away by a dumb manager. Let the guy swing the bat give him a chance. These pitchers are all competitors and want to do well. You can’t tell me that a guy likes going up there and not swinging. No he wants to do his best and try to get a hit. I hate the reasons managers give for doing that too, the “he’s going get hurt if he swings,” and this leads me to my next hate of interleague.

The pitching injuries suffered by AL pitchers

This just drives me nuts. I already don’t like pitchers not hitting so when they do get a chance and they blow it by getting hurt it kills me to see. I mean these pitchers are professional athletes they should be able to run 90 feet and not get hurt. Pitchers I feel like pitchers are some of the most athletic to players on the field. They should not be getting hurt running the bases. Pitchers run all the time how do you think they get their stamina from. It’s from running sprints and jogging. Pitchers know how to run they should be fine to run the bases. That is why I hate seeing them get hurt, I’m like really how? The best example of this is probably Chien-Ming Wang in 2008 with the Yankees. He tore a muscle in his right foot and caused him to miss the rest of the season. He hasn’t really been the same pitcher since: pre- injury he had back to back 19 win seasons in 2006 and 07 and post injury he has gone 1-6 and is still trying to come back from the foot problems. That’s why I dislike interleague play.

Overall I enjoy interleague the positives of it outweigh the negatives in my opinion. I will definitely be paying attention to the games tonight when the Jays take on the Houston Astros, yes the Astros are not a good team they provide a different team to watch, a team I don’t normally see, a team I probably won’t see after this series and really that’s OK with me.

Comments are appreciated; let me know how I’m doing and how I can improve.

Young Starting Pitchers

2011-05-13T18:35:00.000-04:00

I was at Justin Verlander’s no hitter on Saturday. As I was watching the game it got me thinking about why hitting has dropped so much. Sure it’s because steroids are out of the game but why haven’t the pitchers suffered the same amount as the hitters? For every Barry Bonds there is a Roger Clemens, for every Mark McGuire there is an Andy Pettite and so on. I decided to look at reasons other than testing to determine why hitting is down and pitching is up. This is the reason why I think hitting has dropped:

The emergence of the premier young starter

Look at all the young starting pitching in the league today: Felix Hernandez (age 25), David Price (25), Trevor Cahill (23), Jamie Garcia (24), etc. Those are just a few who have proven that they can pitch in the Majors. So many top pitching prospects are coming up and having early success: Jeremy Hellickson (4-0 last September 3-2 to start this year), Kyle Drabek (2-2, 4.81 not off to the fastest start but did 1 hit the Minnesota Twins through 7 on April 2). This does not include rookie phenom Steven Strasberg who may miss all of 2011 with Tommy John surgery. These are just a few examples but there are so many other pitchers as well, that are coming up and succeeding in the majors. Teams and GMs are realizing the value of a young starting pitcher who you can control for 6 seasons, rather than trying to sign that big free agent veteran. Look at the top 10 pitchers this year by baseball references WAR (wins above replacement player).

Pitcher (Team)	WAR	Age
Trevor Cahill (OAK)	2.5	23
Roy Halladay (PHI)	2.3	33
Jered Weaver (LAA)	2.2	28
Josh Johnson (FLA)	2.2	27
Dan Haren (LAA)	2.1	30
Josh Becket (BOS)	1.9	30
Zach Britton (BAL)	1.9	23
James Shields (TBR)	1.8	29
Tim Lincecum (SFG)	1.8	26
Jon Jester (BOS)	1.7	27

Of these pitchers 7 of them are under 30, 7 of them are in there prime years (28-32). No pitcher is older than Halladay at 33 years old.

Compare this with 2001 (WAR will be higher as it is for a full season)

Pitcher (Team)	WAR	Age
Randy Johnson	8.4	37
Curt Schilling	7.3	34
Mike Mussina	6.5	32
Joe Mays	5.9	25
Roger Clemens	5.4	38
Mark Buehrle	5.3	22
Mark Mulder	5.2	23
Javier Vazquez	5.0	25
Wade Miller	4.9	24
Pedro Martinez	4.6	29

There are 6 pitchers under 30; only 2 pitchers are in their prime and 3 pitchers are over 33.

This proves the point that pitching is getting younger, the best pitchers in the league are no longer veterans like Johnson and Schilling; it’s now more pitchers in their prime, like Weaver and Johnson. More young starters are getting the opportunity to pitch and they are thriving, that is why I think hitting has dropped as much as it has.

Comments are appreciated let me know how I’m doing, if I’m doing well let me know, if not what am I doing wrong and how can I improve.

The White Shortstop: A dying breed?

2011-05-08T22:09:00.000-04:00

I was looking at my latest issue of Sports Illustrated and it had a picture of the cubs Starling Castro on the cover. As you know and in case you don’t Castro is African-American or black. This got me thinking about other shortstops in the league and I trying to figure out how many starting shortstops in the league are white. The most obvious one I thought of were Derek Jeter and Troy Tulowitzki. But that’s all I could think of off the top of my head. As for black SS I thought of Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, and even my Toronto Blue Jays Yunel Escobar. This got me thinking that if you want to be a SS in the Major Leagues you will have a better chance if you are black. I looked at all the shortstops in the Majors at the beginning of 2011 and found some interesting results.

National League Shortstops

NL East

Alex Gonzalez (Atlanta Braves)	Black
Hanley Ramirez (Florida Marlins)	Black
Jimmy Rollins (Philadelphia Phillies)	Black
Jose Reyes (NY Mets)	Black
Ian Desmond (Washington Nationals)	Black

NL Central

Edgar Renteria (Cincinnati Reds)	Black
Starlin Castro (Chicago Cubs)	Black
Yuniesky Betancourt (Milwaukee Brewers)	Black
Ryan Theriot (St. Louis Cardinals)	White
Ronny Cedeno (Pittsburgh Pirates)	Black
Clint Barmes (Houston Astros)	White

NL West

Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado Rockies)	White
Rafael Furcal (LA Dodgers	White
Stephen Drew (Arizona Diamindbacks)	White
Jason Bartlett (San Diego Padres)	White
Miguel Tejada (San Francisco Giants)	Black

American League

AL East

Derek Jeter (NY Yankees)	White
Marco Scutaro (Boston Red Sox)	White
Reid Brignac (Tampa Bay Rays)	White
Yunel Escobar (Toronto Blue Jays)	Black
J.J. Hardy (Baltimore Orioles)	White

AL Central

Alexei Ramirez (Chicago White Sox)	Black
Asdrubal Cabrera (Cleveland Indians)	White
Alcides Escobar (Kansas City	Black
Alexi Casilla (Minnesota Twins)	Black
Johnny Peralta (Detroit Tigers)	White

AL West

Elvis Andrus (Texas Rangers)	Black
Erick Aybar (LA Angels)	Black
Cliff Pennington (Oakland Athletics)	White
Jack Wilson (Seattle Mariners)	White

As you can see there are 16 black SS and 14 white. My original though was wrong as not every SS is black. Some interesting things to note the NL east consisted of all black SS, the AL East however had 4 outta 5 black. Of the 8 playoff teams last year (Atl, Phi, Cin, SFG, NYY, TB, Min, Tex), 6 out of 8 SS were black. Of the teams who finished last in their divisions (Was, Ari, Pit, Bal, KC, Sea), 3 out of 6 were white. So basically I have come to the conclusion that not all shortstops are black but if you want to have a playoff team you are better off going with a black player over a white player.