Old Dix TSP Blog

Olddix TSP blog has moved

2017-12-31T09:31:00.001-05:00

The move is official and just in case you access this blog directly, the new address is www.cmarkdixon.com/olddix

TSP end of week, month, and year for 2017

2017-12-29T20:25:00.001-05:00

2017 is in the books and it was an awesome year. I ended the year, as it stands right now with the raw numbers, with a 20.14% gain. It could go up a little when all gains including dividends that are paid behind the scenes are applied to our PIP. Looking at my little 12 month chart, I also had one losing month in August and it was a mere .05%. Out of everything that I track, I also ended up 3rd behind the I-fund and C-fund. The L-2050 is a very hard index to beat annually and I’ve only done it twice, and this year was one of those year I beat it. Our PIP for 2017 will likely not be reported until next Tuesday and when it is, I’ll post for all to see.

Looking at my big numbers chart above, do you see the biggest winner and largest comeback from a year ago? The I-fund. It kicked butt in 2017 and is a great reason why we follow monthly moves and do not learn to hate an index just because it had a bad year. Doesn’t matter what the fund is called or what it is invested in. If it is a monthly buy, we are in. It could be the peanut butter index. That’s a joke, just smile and roll with it.

Do you see the change in the number chart at the top? Its a small change, but a change that will always let you know what is and isn’t a buy. I am going to tweak the L-funds to some how show how much of the fund is green and how much is red. Still working on that. Also if you look down that last column, bottom right, you can see what I am invested in at all times. It doesn’t show the distribution, but you will always know what. I will post my distribution weekly and if I ever change it.

So now it is time to move on to 2018. If you missed my post from last night, this will be the last post here on blogspot.com. I will be moving everything over to wordpress and onto my own personal domain. I will also be converting my blog to a pay site. There will be a 30 day free trial, and then you can opt out. You can chose month to month for $10 or pay for an entire 12 months for $110. So in case you have already had to much to drink to celebrate New Years weekend, that’s a $10 savings or a month free. For all of those that come with me, I am looking forward to teaching, showing, and investing in a manner that is calming in the worst times and fun in the good times like now. What I did or we did was easy the last 12 months and eventually it wiil end. This is when you need a calm method that is not driven by drama but un-emotional charts and moving averages.

I will still post all my links on facebook as I have done in the past, but the only difference when you click the link to read, you will have to have an account to access the blog. Thanks for all that have followed me in the past and put up with my learning how and all my mispellings and poor grammar. I even giggle at some of my post when I go back and read them, but on the brightside, I didn’t lose a dime because of my grammer.

Happy New Year to all and I hope we all have a prosperous 2018.

Friday will be the last day of 2017.

2017-12-28T23:24:00.001-05:00

Wow, where did 2017 go? I have to say that it has been a year that I will not forget personally because of all the life changes I had the last 12 months. Everything in life happens for a reason and I truly believe I am a better person today.

As far as the TSP goes, you and I had an incredible year if you followed my moves. It's not as much about the money as it is about the method. I promote a very calm and logical way to invest while young, while growing or aging, and while retired. If you take the time to learn my methods and listen to what I say, you will sleep and live a comfortable life when you retire.

For the first time in very long time, I am going to beat the L-2050 by over a 1.3%. That is awesome. I also blew out my personal PIP goal for 2017. My goal is a 7% gain, never have a negative PIP for any 12 month period, and if I do, never have a double digit loss. I will make close to 21% this year. With the size of my account, the growth of my account exceeded the income of more than 94% of people living in the United States. That is even more than I can comprehend.

In 2018, I am going to convert my blog into a pay site for a few reasons. Are the 109 followers that I have on Facebook real? Do I have followers that truly want and need what I provide? If I am writing this blog and is it being read by no one but myself and my family, then I can end it. The time I spend putting all the charts together and writing the blog can be spent doing something else. I accomplished my goal in finding a method to run my TSP account in retirement that cost me nothing and will let me sleep.

But, if I have 5 people out there in TSP land that actually want and need what I do and are willing to pay $10 a month for it, I will continue. If I only get 4 or less, I'll refund the money to the 4 and close shop.

So, the ball is in your court. Is Olddix TSP worth it?

Either way, it's been an awesome ride and I've learned a lot.

Now, let's get busy working on everything for 2018.

Merry Christmas to all

2017-12-25T10:51:00.001-05:00

TSP daily charts as of 12/23/17

2017-12-23T19:12:00.001-05:00

Not a bad week this week. The Small Cap gave us all our gains for the week. When you look at my gain chart that I posted yesterday, it looks like the International had a good week, but in reality it should only show a .2 to a .3% gain. Not sure why there is a discrepancy in the report. We have 4 more trading days left for December and the year of 2017. What a year we have had. It really makes me feel good to see some of the young people out there that follow me, reporting back with gains of 20% plus. I do want to impress just a little bit of reality to these newbies, it will not always be this rosey. At least 3 times in my 31 years of working for the Government and making deposits into the TSP, I saw major pullbacks of 40% plus. So, learn to run your accounts now to minimize the bad years when they come and they will come. The main thing to learn and know, is when to get out to minimize the damage so the recovery doesn’t take years to happen. Let me show you a little math and then I’ll get to the daily charts.

If you take a 50% loss in one year and the next year you have a 50% gain, did you break even? No, you did not. Watch this so you understand. $1000 * (50%) = $500 loss. That leaves you with $500. Ouch. $500 * 50% = $250 gain. That leaves you with $750. That is not a recovery or equal amount. You need a 100% gain in order to recoup a 50% loss. So, the lesson here is we never, ever, buy and hold. We babysit our TSP account while working and retired until death do we part from this earth. It doesn’t end when you reach your retirement date.

Now to the charts.

The S&P 500 is still a thing of beauty and will make the worst trader/inverstor look good. It does appear after the last 4 trading days that a Bull flag is forming. That is actually a good thing as prices pause and then continue higher most times. Volatility is low and the DMI is very positive. So I do not see a change in direction for awhile for the C-fund.

The Small Cap on Monday had a very impressive pop that almost equaled our all time highs. The remainder of the week price just grinded sideways. The DMI below is positive but it still looks very undecided to me. Looking at the last 5 days of trading and the short trading bars for each day, it appears that volatility has slowed and that is good. Over all there is nothing to like here and we will continue to ride.

The International had a very explosive and impressive Monday, then Tuesday gave it all back plus some. That was a little disappointing because price temporarily broke through overhead resistance. I was hoping that price would never look back and continue higher, but we are right back in the middle of the consolidation channel. I think at this point we have a 50-50 chance of price breaking in either direction. The odds prior to this week is that we had 80-20 chance of prices continuing higher, but after falling this hard back into the channel, it look much less positive.

Bonds had very bad week when you look at the chart. Price fell out of the bottom of the channel and I would have to assume we are heading lower. It will likely be just a continuation of the slow downward trend that we have been watching since September 7th. There is still nothing to like here and I will remain out of bonds.

Conclusion: No matter what, if you have been following my exact moves this year, we are going to end the year very postive. I do not expect things to change anytime soon with my setup because of one main thing. The Tax Bill that they are going to sign. Good, bad, or ugly, the stock market will love it if it passes and will pull back 5% if they do not pass it. If you haven’t figured it out yet, they do not pass things in Congress for the little or middle folks. It has always been about big business and it will remain that way until they bankrupt the country. So, you might as well invest and ride the wave of the people with money so you can get a little piece of the pie. Having an opinion about weather the tax bill is good or bad for whoever doesn’t really matter. Just ride the direction of the wave or step off and swim back to shore and get nothing. Bring on 2018, let the TSP growth continue.

TSP weekly closing numbers as of 12/22/17

2017-12-22T20:37:00.001-05:00

I am back, and here are the closing numbers and charts.

2017-12-17T08:20:00.001-05:00

Hi TSP’ers! That was a wonderful vacation. It was our first cruise and other than a little cold leaving the harbor that first night, it was close to perfect. We really had a good time traveling with friends, exploring, excursions, shows, food, and drink. We are already searching for our next destination. I think I am going to love this retirement thing.

The Stock market had a very good week while I was gone and brought us all back into the green. We need strong run for the rest of the month to match last years December returns, but no matter what happens, I think we will all end 2017 positive and leave us hoping for more in 2018. Now for our closing numbers for the week and charts.

The S&P 500 last week was the leader. With a near 1% gain for the week and a almost picture perfect price structure, what else could we want? I’ll tell you. All time highs and we also got that. The DMI and volatility are both positive. There is nothing you can find on this daily chart that is negative.

The Small Cap had an ok week, but it was a bit sloppy. The larger the daily bars, or longer bars I should say, the more volatility there is for that day. The more of these you get back to back, the scary the market can be. It can also be very hard to see direction. I pointed out some of those days on the chart above. The last two had some big swings. Also what concerns me is if you look about 10 days back, that nice up swing we had came to an end. This could be a temporary pause or consolidation, but I was really expecting a longer surge up. To me, price needs to continue uphill from here and if by chance we fall below the red CBL, it could hurt.

The International showed a small gain this week but in reality nothing has been accomplished. Wednesday we bounced off $70.48ish and returned to lower prices. See that little dip below the CBL? That is the last pivot low at $69.18 and we need to see price reverse to higher prices before that point breached. We also need to see the overhead resistance at $70.79 brorken through. If we see all those things come true, it will give us the confidence to know that this uptrend structure will continue.

Bonds also ended the week positive, but like the International, nothing has been accomplished. Price has been trapped in a channel since November 7th and we will see next week if we break out the top or if we get more of the same and down we go to the bottom of the channel. Weekly and Monthly, bonds are still a sell.

Conclusion: We have 9 more trading left for 2017. It is hard to believe that another year is in the books, but it’s gone. 2017 is going to go down as one of our best years for gains, but what will 2018 bring? First no one knows the answer for that question, so we have a mechanical none emotional solution to help us navigate the unknown. As for the now, other than the S&P 500, 3 out of 4 of our primary indexes are grinding. Grinding sideways sometimes is a sign that something is going to break in a direction very soon. In most ever case, the current trend is the direction that a break will go. My only fear here is that this run uphill has been running so long that a reversal lower is almost expected. I will not exit my position on a theory but will wait once again for a proper signal to make a logical move. Every single time I have tried to out smart my monthly moves, I have failed. So bring on 2018 good or bad, let’s make the most of the moves that are required.

TSP closing numbers as of 12/8/17

2017-12-08T19:22:00.001-05:00

I am sitting in my hotel room in Charleston SC tonight and in the morning I leave on a 7 days cruise. 3 stops in the Bahamas and back. So this could be my last post until the 17th or 18th of December. This week, we reached our lows on Wednesday and then had a nice recovery Thrusday and Friday. I ended the week positive and shaved almost 1% off my losses for the month of December. I’m hoping that while I am enjoying the cruise, warmth, sun, and the islands, my TSP will work hard for me and put back into positive territory for the month. I hope all of you stay warm and snow free while I am gone. Hold the line no matter what till the end of the month. Be brave and do not let news and drama affecting your investing.

TSP 2018 contribution reminder

2017-12-07T06:30:00.001-05:00

Credit to my son for forwarding this to me yesterday. Even though we have spoken about this, it is time to make your adjustment.

TSP Contribution Limits for 2018

For Calendar Year 2018, employees will receive 27 pay checks instead of 26. Therefore instead of contributing $712.00 as previously advised for the maximum amount for TSP, your bi-weekly contribution should be $686.00. Please make the appropriate change by the deadline below.

To make changes to your Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Traditional or Roth Contributions, or to elect or continue TSP Catch-up Contributions, please log into My Employee Personal Page at www.nfc.usda.gov/epps. Your changes must be submitted no later than December 9, 2017, with an effective date of December 10, 2017, pay period 25, to ensure it is effective the first pay period in 2018.

The combined annual calendar year 2018 TSP Contribution limit for Traditional (pre-tax) and Roth (after-tax) is $18,500. If you want to contribute the maximum amount and receive the Matching Contributions, your per pay period amount is $686.00 . You may also choose to contribute a percentage, up to the maximum amount. If you are covered by FERS and you reach the maximum amount allowed prior to the end of the calendar year, you will not receive the Matching Contributions for the remaining pay periods. You will still receive the Agency Automatic 1% Contribution. It’s best to have equal contributions for each pay period.

In addition to the $18,500, you may also participate in TSP Catch-up if you will be age 50 or older in 2018. The annual catch-up contribution limit is $6,000, your pay period amount is $231.00.

Note: If you elected Catch-up Contributions in 2017 and would like to continue the contributions into 2018, you MUST make a new election.

Time for a little vacation.

2017-12-06T20:30:00.001-05:00

Starting tomorrow there is no guarantee that I will be able to post any charts or updates until December 17th. I will be taking a short vacation with the wife on our first cruise. 7 days and 70 plus temps to relax and enjoy the reitrement that I earned.

Since we do monthly moves and since it always happens at the end of month, you guys will be ok. No matter what happens, don’t panic. Hold the line and ride the wave until 12/31/17. So far this month, I am down 1.37% and every index is red except for Bonds and the G-fund. No new sell signals today and the I-fund still has sell warning 1 in effect.

So until I return, stay calm and away from the news.

I-fund sell warning

2017-12-05T20:22:00.001-05:00

It’s been a rough start to the of December so far. The International index fired sell warning 1 today by closing below the CBL. We need price to reverse and create a high pivot low above $68.28 to keep trend on structure.

Retirement transition from July 1st to November 26th

2017-12-02T21:10:00.001-05:00

Below you will see how my Retirement played out from July 1st until November 26th. I consolidated all my retirement post into one post so it would be easier to find.

July 16th:

Just a little talk about retirement and what’s been happening. A lot of my peers will retire very soon or will in the next few years. We all wonder how things works, so as the pieces fall into place for me, I will post them here. I just received my last working paycheck. The pay period that I got credit for was only 40 hours. Yes, I was on leave. Did I earn any vacation or sick leave for 40 hours of work pay? No! So if you are doing your math to end up with a zero leave balance for sick or annual leave, remember that. You do not earn leave for half or partial weeks. You must work 80 to earn leave. Just so you know, I ended up with a perfect zero balance for sick leave. Those that know about our sign in system for requesting leave, looking at working shifts and sign in, is called WMT. I was closed out the exact day I retired. If you need to know something, get it before the last day. I just checked it out for fun. As I trasition from working emplyoee to retired employee, I will post the events.

I now officially have crossed that line in the sand where I have ZERO new money going into my retirement account or TSP. Scary times indeed. Will I stay invested and ride the monthly moves. Yes. As of today, I am 100% invested as a 20 year old. Meaning? I have 100% of my money in high risk C, S, and I. I will ride the monthly moves in my retirement as I did when I worked. This is the only thing I know and it’s the only way I know to keep my money growing for my future needs. I chose not take a monthly withdrawel nor did I take a 1 time withdrawel. I left my TSP in the TSP and with the TSP.gov website. Warning if you do not know. If you move your TSP into a TD Ameritrade or that type of account and away from the TSP.gov organization, you will lose you ATC early retriement rules and will have to pay 10% penalty on any monies you withdrawl to spend. That’s all I’ve got for the moment.

July22nd:

I retired from the FAA officially on June 30, 2017. I got my letter to inform me that the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has gotten my retirement package from the FAA and it has been certified correct. This as of 7/17/17. As of 7/22/2017 I can still access Employee Express but I assume that will change soon and OPM will give me a new PIN and website address to access my monthly income soon. I am really looking forward to my pay cut, (humor). Since I decided not to withdraw no money from my TSP, I will be curious if I can afford to live off the annuity alone. Those that are young with many years of work in front of them, do not take these litte details serious, but they should.

July 29th:

You all know that I retired officially June 30th. I spent over half my life in that place and I really didn’t expect anything from Government. I always told people we are just a number and a warm body and once they are down with you, poof forgotten. So take care of yourself and family. So when this showed up in the mail this week, I was surprised. I got a plaque for my 30 years of service. I also got notification from OPM about the transition from employed to retired. I and you eventually will be given a new webiste and CSA number to access your 1099r, address changes, and your annuity stuff. So I’ve been out for almost 1 month and things seem to be moving along nicely. Not sure if I will get a pay check August 1st or not. But I do expect by September 1st, that I will at least start receiving interim checks.

August 6th:

This week in retirement I got my first interim check. Not to shocking because I did a little math in the beginning and had a pretty good idea of what that amount might look like. The only deduction of pay that I can see today is Federal. The way I understand it, no state taxes with be withheld from the interim checks. I assume my Health Insurance is being paid, but I have no physical proof yet. I still have access to Employee Express. I now have temporary access to the OPM website to get access to pay info because they mailed me a temporary password. So in one month the transition from Employee Express to OPM CSA page is almost complete. Annual Leave payout check has still not been received. I am officially 5 weeks into retirement.

I need to say this one more time for all my peeps that are already retired or getting ready to retire. You can’t run from stocks. If you run it properly, you will be ok. But you can’t run from stocks. Read please and make sure you click to page 11.

I hope some of the retired peeps and some of the soon to be retired peeps read that short Kiplinger article I linked at the beginning of this blog. Our C, S, and I funds that trade inside the TSP are some of the most tame non-egressive mutual funds in the world. On top of that, they are cheap to run with expensive that are ridicoulosly low. Do not think of our Stock funds as being in stocks. Think of them as being invested in Mutual Funds. No one stock will ever kill your portfolio. Our C-fund has over 500 stocks invested inside. The Small Cap has somewhere bettwen 4500-5000 stocks inside. So watch the trends and watch the percentages. The worst thing you can do is watch the dollar figures inside your account. Why? It’s great when things are good, but the second you have a week or two of bad returns, your gut will tell you jerk your money out. But, if at the end of each month you have a positive return percentage wise, the cash amount in your account will reflect that. Watch you PIP and watch your percentage return monthly.

Example: If I told you in one month you took a 1% loss in your account, would you move your money to safety? If I told you in one month you had a $10,000 loss, would you move your money? Believe me as you age and your account grows, this is going to happen. 1% of 1 million is a $10,000 loss.

Example 2: If you had a gain of 11.87% since the January 1, 2017 and had a $135,000 gain, would that 1% loss of $10,000 in one month really hurt?

Example 2 are my actual numbers since January 1, 2017, but have not taken a loss yet. I am not bragging. Please do not take it that way. Like the Kiplinger article said, you cannot run from stocks. Baby sit your money as I teach here and it will work out.

August 13th:

On the Retirement front this week not much to report, but I can see by logging into Employee Express that my annual leave payout will be made this week. So we will call that 6-7 weeks after retirement date. Also looks like they took out Medicare, Federal, State, and SS. All total for me I got about 67% of the total amount and the rest to taxes. Yes, your annual leave payout does count as YTD income. I am all zero’ed out now, so no more pay for me except retirement annuity checks. In case I didn’t mention it, I chose not to withdrawl any funds from my TSP, so it will be annutiy plus stipend until I feel the urge.

September 3rd:

The only retirement news that I have for you this week is that I got my second paycheck and it is still an interim check. Not a big deal, but I’m sure a few of you are curious how long it takes to begin receiving your permanent payout.

September 16th:

etirement news: CSA site has entered it’s final phase on my pay after 78 days. I got an email this week stating this.

Assigned to Specialist:Your retirement application has been assigned to an OPM retirement specialist for calculation of your annuity benefit.

So I can only hope that by October 1st or November 1st, I will finally know what my final monthly paycheck will be.

October 6th:

On a retirement front, I got a letter from OPM today asking me to finalize my selection of type of retirement. I was a little surprised to see this since I made that selection on the forms when I filled them out and submitted months ago. The form they sent me is a Retirement Provision Election. I have 2 choices. ATC MRA+30 annuity, and Regular ATC annuity. If I select the first choice, no raises on my FERS annuity until I reach the age of 62, but I get 1.7% for each year of service. The second choice gives me 1.7% on the first 20 years and 1% for the remaining and I get raises. I’ll take my chances and select choice 1. I have enough in my TSP account that I will be ok. So the final numbers came in and I was pleased. The estimates that I got 9 months ago compared to the actual reported to me today was within $10. According to some of the previous retirees that I have spoken to in recent months, I will also get back pay on all annuity checks received to date and correct annuity payment when it is all settled. Let’s just say I’m pleased with the actual amount compared to the estimated paymets. I was getting a little worried they had screwed something up.

So it has been 98 days since my actual retirement day and 188 days since I filed. I now have a final reported annuity amount. When I actually start getting that final amount, is still an unknown.

October 15th:

Retirement news: It is final. I submitted my request for a retirement amount back in December 2016. I got my answer about 6-8 weeks later. That estimate was within $4. How awesome is that? I am pleased. I will be able to live on my retirement less all the deductions that I do not have to pay anymore, at almost the same level without withdrawing from TSP. If I took money from my TSP, I could equal or exceed. So from Retirement day, June 30th, it took until October 11th to go through the entire process. 113 days counting weekends to get your final monthly payout with stipend.

Your new CSA page will look like this once they have finalized your account. Some other details. Your health insurance is being paid as you move along even though it doesn’t show in the intermin checks. No state tax is being withheld and it still will not be unless you select it with the 3rd item down, first column. You will get back pay for those short Intermin checks, which for me was 3 months worth of back pay. I’ll take it. So now, I just live my life and let the working people do what the working people do. Time for me to sit back and enjoy the fruits of my labors.

October 29th:

I had a conversation with one of my peeps this week that just retired and I asked if they were still invested in the C, S, and I. Their reply was, “no, I wimped out and I’m only invested in the L-Income.” Let me be clear here. There is absoultely nothing wrong with that move and every single professional investor would tell a newly retired individual to stay in the stock market, but the majority should be in safe funds. They are doing exactly as they should. Based on my number research of all past action, show all newly retired peeps should be invested in the L-Income or L-2020. As time passes, these two funds will almost be an exact images of each other because the L-2020 will cease to exist after December 2020. So it becomes more conservative as time marches on. Each investor has their own risk tolerance but the only fund that I do not promote unless the markets are all flagged as monthly sells, is the G-fund. You are outright losing money via inflation and if you are making withdrawals, it’s a double whammy. So do your homework and research the numbers.

November 20th:

On November 17, 2017, President Trump signed into law the TSP Modernization Act of 2017, which will provide TSP participants with more flexible withdrawal options. The law eliminates the statutory prohibition on multiple post-separation withdrawals and multiple age-based withdrawals while a participant is still working. It also removes the restriction that participants cannot take partial post-separation withdrawals if they’ve already taken an age-based in-service withdrawal. Though it has no effect on required minimum distributions mandated by the Internal Revenue Code, the law also allows separated participants who are over age 70½ to remain in the TSP, eliminating the requirement to make a withdrawal election on an entire account balance. Participants will also be able to stop monthly payments, change payment frequency, or elect to purchase an annuity while receiving monthly payments.

The Executive Director of the FRTIB has the authority to establish parameters regarding this new ability to take multiple withdrawals, and the law gives the FRTIB up to two years to make the regulatory and operational changes necessary to enact these changes.

November 26th:

I am going to throw some raw numbers at you to make you think, you cannot invest using fear, but if you have a method that will make you mechanical, you can sleep. I taught myself to be this way before I retired. I wanted to be able to make decisions with my retirement account without having to pay someone to do it for me. I also needed it to be a method that would not be greedy which normally creates dumb decisions. Been there done that. I know eventually all these making new record highs will end and eventually I will be invested 100% G-fund when my monthly moves turn negative. But until that happens, I can sleep and know that my retirement account will continue to grow faster than inflation. Now those numbers. My last deposit in my TSP account was July 18th, 2017 because of retirement. My account has grown $73,217. Since December 31st 2016, my account has grown $200,000. So to my followers, specially those that are retired, you heard me talk when we worked together and you knew I was working on a system that would allow me to run my account once I retired. I am doing that and nothing has changed since retiring. There is no way that these gains I have experienced recently can continue. But it doesn’t matter people, if we have a 5 to 10% drop in prices and I give $50 to $100,000 back, I still had a major gain that I would have lost being overly conservative. Here is the kicker. The C-fund, S-fund, and I-fund that some think are so risky are nothing more than glorified mutual funds. If the markets get pounded, mutual funds would take a smaller hit. Inversely, you will never get the most gains to the upside. Taking your money out of the TSP and investing into individual stock picks is what I consider insane. That is what I call full risk. I have never considered the C, S, and I risky. So, those that worked with me and talked with me daily knew this about me. For those that follow me now that I have never met, you now understand more about why I do what I do. I am not here to tell you what to do or change your methods, but to teach you how to be calm and mechanical so you can sleep. Listening to the TV or radio news and or banter from someone that will never show your their actual returns, creates fear and bad moves. I put all my numbers out here for all to see and I even copy and paste directly from my TSP account, my PIP. I also let you see first hand how I come to these decisions. Keep it simple. Keep it mechanical. 12 decisions a year. Anyone can do this.

TSP weekly closing number as of 12/1/17

2017-12-01T19:41:00.001-05:00

First day of December was a bust.

TSP Novemeber closing numbers and monthly moves for December

2017-11-30T22:38:00.001-05:00

We had another awesome month with all indexes finishing positive except for Bonds. I picked up another 2.5% for November bringing 2017 total so far to almost 19%. I expect my PIP to fall from 27.04 to around 23%. Yes it will fall because November 2016 was a 6.31% gain and this year 2.5%. It exceeds my goal of a positive .7 gain per month, so I am very happy. Now to our monthly charts and moves.

I do not normally write anything with the monthyl moves, but this time I wanted to point out the last entry and the gain so far. Last buy signal was 3/31/16 and I entered on 4/1/16 and have been riding since that point. That’s a very nice run and gain. The C-fund continues to be a buy at the end of November 2017. No change.

The last buy signal for the Small Cap monthly was 4/30/16 and I entered on 5/1/16. Another very nice run of 31.9% and the S-fund continues to be a buy today. No change.

Last buy signal for the International monthly was 1/31/17 and I entered 2/1/17. Another nice run of 17.5%. The I-fund continues to be a buy today. No Change.

Last sell signal was 9/30/17. I’ve been out since July 6, 2017. Bonds are still a sell today. No change.

Conclusion: No change in my setup, 34% - S, 33% - C, and 33% - I. Since the L-2030, L-2040, and the L-2050 have more than 61% of their portfolio invested in the C,S, and I, they are also buys. The L-income and L-2020 and always buys because they are the safe indexes that help protect you from large pull backs in the stock market, but they also pay less when the stock market has big gains. G-fund by itself is always a buy and safe.

Last year, December was a positive month for us and I had a 2.02% gain.

Thursday is the last day of the month

2017-11-29T17:57:00.000-05:00

I will be away from my computer most of the day Thursday for a funeral. I will attempt to get the monthly closing numbers and monthly moves as soon as I get home. It might be late Thursday night or first thing Friday morning. It will be posted in time so you can make moves prior to 11:30am Friday morning.

Spend time with those you love that have a been there for you. In a flash, they could be gone.

TSP daily charts as of 11/26/17

2017-11-26T10:05:00.001-05:00

Last week really turned November around and it appears now that we will have another positive month. 4 more trading days left before our monthly moves need to be re-evaluated. Before las week, I really thought things were shifting and a shift in positive wasn’t far off. So let’s take a look at our daily charts.

Everything with the S&P 500, which is our C-fund, is warm, fuzzy, and cozy. The chart is almost to perfect. We reached new all time highs again last week. Volatility is falling and is very low. DMI has turned positive and looking at the bottom of that particular area on the chart, the blue line crossed above the red which indicates a strong uptrend.

The Small Cap daily by far was our leading indicator that we were heading lower. All the signs were there. A failed bull flag breakout from 3 weeks that was suppose to be marching us upwards of 70-80 points higher. Then price formed a consolidation channel and fell out the bottom. The old red CBL line, which has now been moved, was broken to the downside as was the 50 day moving average. Everything was screaming lookout below. Then price had a very powerful 4 day march higher out of the topside of the channel. The last two days of the trading week, that price march slowed a little bit, but Thanksgiving day was between those two days. So all sell warnings have been canceled and we wait to see next week what type of response we get from that powerful upsurge in prices. What I’m looking for is for price to hold above the channel, even if it just goes sideways for the rest of the week. Maybe with that consolidation and bull flag breakout combined, we will get our 70 point move higher. That would be a great way to end 2017.

The International index also canceled it’s sell warnings and returned to more recent highs. Volatility is positive. DMI is turning positive, so everything is looking good. Something new has popped up on this chart that was just out of view until this week. Overhead resistance that dates back to June 2014. I would normally expect price to pause at that level but this dates back three and half years. I am having a hard time grasping that price or traders would really have a memory of this level. I expect price to break through that overhead level and continue it’s slow upward trend. I did mark this level because we who read chart trends and patterns would mark every single time. We shall see what we shall see.

Bonds appear to be forming a consolidation channel that is between the green buy CBL line and the last two pivot lows. The down trend line has been broken again as it is drawn today. Volatility is low and the DMI is mixed. Is this a reversal in the making? It could be. I do know that those last two pivot lows, which helped me draw that yellow support is important. The longer we stay above it, the more likely price has bottomed. If price should break below that level, then this was just a pause before the downtrend continued. The only thing we can do here is watch. Based on what I see, I am starting to believe a bottom has been reached.

Conclusion: I believe our 3 primary indexes that we have been in for a long time will continue higher. If Bonds have found bottom and prices do start to creep up, this will likely slow the other 3 indexes. November 2016, yes last year, was a once in lifetime killer positive month for me with a 6.31% gain. I didn’t expect that for November 2017, but I was expecting to reach my monthly goal of .7% gain. It appears as of right now, we will exceed that goal. Normally, November through April are always the best times to be in the stockmarket and based on the bias that whatever trend your are in will continue, it looks like it could once again be a good time to be invested.

TSP weekly closing numbers as of 11/24/17

2017-11-24T19:47:00.001-05:00

What can I say but, Wow! What a Thanksgiving week it was.

Thanksgiving came early for the TSP

2017-11-22T19:47:00.001-05:00

First and formost, may all of you have a Happy Thanksgiving. Hopefully you will have time off to spend with your family and those that you love.

Thanksgiving showed up early for all of us invested in the stock market because we went from a week of red to 3 days of green and new all time highs. Sweet. 5 more trading day left for November and then are final monthly move for 2017. Where did the year go?

No can perdict the future

2017-11-21T20:11:00.001-05:00

After living through all the drama last week on the market, and I know a few of you wanted to bail, how does this week make you feel?

That is a rip to all time highs and a breakout of the consolidation channel for the Small Cap. I do believe that tomorrow morning that my TSP account will be sitting at all time highs? Did you hold the line? Did you stay calm and patient?

You should have because of the monthly moves and no one can predict the future. We ride this wave until we have a mechanical reason to get out. Have a safe and enjoyable Thanksgiving with your family and friends.

This is a big change for the TSP

2017-11-20T22:08:00.001-05:00

TSP daily charts as of 11/19/17 - Drama week

2017-11-19T10:11:00.001-05:00

I posted a few quick updates on Facebook this past week just to make sure that my followers were kept up to date on anything plus or minus that is changing. The Small Cap and the international had the most drama with sell warnings being fired and then canceled. How should you the reader take and use this information? Understanding my methods and knowing ultimately we do nothing unless the monthly charts fire the sell or buy, it’s just a heads up that momentum of price might be changing in one direction or the other. Stay calm, consume it, wait and watch. It is a heads up that maybe by the end of the month you should not miss that particular update because there might be a change in our position.

Here is another thing you should also use as a tool to stay calm. These daily chart reports I put out each weekend have a very big clue at the bottom of each chart. If you see the green buy icons for the daily, weekly, and monthly charts, you should be in. If you see two greens and a red, it should make you think pause and maybe things are changing. If you see three red sells, daily, weekly, and monthly, you should be out.

Ultimately, I use the monthly moves to stay mechanical so I can make unemotional moves in and out of the individual indexes.

The S&P 500 hardly flinched this past week. The slide in prices approached the sell CBL line, created a new higher pivot low. This is a normal thing with a healthy uptrend. The 50 day moving average hardly changed it’s uphill angle. The only negatives on this chart are the volatility is high and the DMI is sloppy. Everything on the S&P looks fine at this moment in time.

The Small Cap daily had the most drama this week. Price broke down below the red CBL line, which is sell warning 1. Then price closed one day below the 50 day moving average , which fired sell warning 2. Thursday and Friday, price bounce hard to the upside and canceled all warnings. This also put us right back in the middle of the consolidation channel. It also puts us right back in the middle of not having a clue which direction this new move is going to go. Also remember from a a few weeks ago, we had a bull flag breakout that indicated that we were heading 70 points higher. Lot’s of data here to consume and attempt to make a decision with, so using the monthly moves once again proves, that following them has a lot less drama. Following the dailies for me is just fun but mind racking at the same time. Knowing that we are still in an uptrend, also knowing that we had the bull flag breakout, and also knowing we just formed a pivot low, my best guess is we are still heading higher. We watch and ride.

The International Daily also fired sell warning 1 and 2 this week. Since my CBL sell line and the 50 day moving average have merged into one spot, it is not that surprising here. The final sell signal on the daily is still the green uptrend line which today is around $66. So there is a lot of room today for lower prices before we turn totally negative here. Volatility and DMI are negative, so it would not be a big surprise to see lower prices here. Here is one more little concern and might be hard to understand. That new pivot low is positive only if price does not reverse and end up lower than that point. If price goes lower, it will indicate that a new down trend has begun. This is also true with the Small Cap, but it is not as obvious. We watch and ride.

Bonds are beginning to look like there might be a bottom here. Price could continue higher from here, but what I expect to happen is for price to once again go lower and test that yellow support line. Price has already bounced up from here once and if it happens again, this is very good signal that we have reach a low. Would I take this signal to jump in? Nope, it is just information once again that trend might be changing. But, if you are invested in any of the L-funds, this is good for you.

Conclusion: Don’t let last week scare you. This is when you really, really need to turn off the news. This is also when you really need to turn off what your buddy is bragging about how they got in or out at just the right time. 99% of the time, if you ask that person to show you in their account the proof of the black and white move, they will not show you and or give some other excuse. Don’t listen or fall for it. Use the mechanical moves with no emotion and you will be able to sleep. I have been saying for a few weeks now that things might be changing and lower prices might be in our future. But, when that actually happens, no one can predict. W could could up another 10% before the pull back happens, so why not wait for a monthly sell signal?

Next week is Thanksgiving week, so the markets could be slow without much movement.

TSP closing numbers as of 11/17/17

2017-11-17T19:45:00.001-05:00

TSP weekly charts as of 11/11/17 - Is this the beginning?

2017-11-11T19:04:00.001-05:00

This week was the first time in a long time where every index had a negative week. This uptrend has been running for a long time and it has been a good one for all us that have been following the monthly moves. We have been continuously in the C and S since March 2016 and have been running the I-fund since July 2017. We did have an index this week reconfirm it’s negative down trend. We also need to have a 4 to 5% pullback to even fire a sell signal on the monthly’s. So it’s a little early yet to tell if this is the pull back sign.

To look at the price structure of the C-fund above, it just looks like a normal step in the ladder climbing higher. Volatility is starting to put a little pressure on the index and that is negative. The DMI looks like it will turn negative next week for the first time since the end of August. We need a lot more information from price before we can tell if trend is changing. So we ride and watch.

The Small Cap daily chart is the one index we have that is starting to scream that a reversal is imminent. Why? We had a bull flag breakout 16 days ago and it has for the most part failed. It was suppose to be a 70 point move to the high side. Until Wednesday everything was ok, but at that point, price started breaking down below support. Now price is sitting right on top of the first sell warning level at the CBL. Price is also closing in on the 50 day ma. That would be the second sell level. The Short term uptrend line, the dotted green line, also failed. I did not expect that trend to hold long because it was to steep. The long dashed line in green is the final sell line of the daily chart, so we have a bit of a buffer. I do believe that if price continues to fall next week, that we could see a real roll over that would drag the rest of the market indexes with it. Keep in mind, monthly we still need a 4% drop from todays price to fire a sell. We watch carefully and ride it.

The International looks more closely to that of the S&P 500 or C-fund chart. It just looks like we are making steady steps higher. The volatility is negative and the DMI is negative. These are a few indicators that are whispering that a pull back is possible. No sell warnings here either so we watch and ride.

Bonds was looking like it was going to reverse the current downtrend, but come Thursday and Friday that fell apart. The down trend line will be adjusted to reflect the last pivot low, but nothing has changed. Bonds are still a sell and still heading lower. On top of that, the weekly chart Friday fired a sell signal. So now all three charts, daily, weekly, and monthly are a sell. If the support level that I drew in yellow doesn’t hold next week, it will also confirm that the bottom has not been reached yet.

Conclusion: Yes, it does appear that the markets are either digesting all their gains or prices have finally reached a level where profit taking is going to begin. Prices cannot go up forever, so a good 4 to 5% pull back is normal in a strong market. Just don’t gut check out yet. No one can predict the future. All I can do is read the past and try to make some sense of what it might mean in the future. I still will depend on the monthly charts to make the final call to sell.

TSP weekly closing numbers and a correction on your TSP bi-weekly deposit.

2017-11-10T19:23:00.001-05:00

All we had this week was a sea of red. Every single index ended in the red except for the G-fund. Is this the beginning of the down turn that I have been talking about for a couple of weeks? It could be, but as of right now we have no sell signals to talk about. If the current trend of lower prices continue next week, then we will begin firing sell signals on the daily charts.

I made this statement inside my October 29th post: For all you working TSP’ers, the maximum amount you can save went up $500 for 2018. So, your new maximum bi-weekly deduction should be $711.53. Well last Tuesday I got a question about my numbers from Scott Zittle. He basically asked if I was sure about the 26 Bi-weekly pay periods in 2018 or if there was 27. I spent 2 days researching this question and almost gave up. I even emailed OPM and got a half hearted answer, but I finally found the answer. Below is the 2017 Pay and Holiday schedule.

What I want you to look at is the month of December. The 26th pay period for 2017 ends December 9th. There is no logic to this so you just have to roll with it. They could have made the next two week period in 2016, 2017, or 2018 the 27th pay period and it would almost look identical. So before I give you the answer and timing, let’s look at 2018.

So above is the 2018 calendar. First let’s look at January and you can plainly see the pay period ending januray 6th is pay period 2. Now let’s look at the last month December 2018 and you will definitely see pay period 27. December 2017, Sunday is the last day of the month and in 2018 it is Monday. So where is the logic? Eh! who cares, they just decided to go ahead and call it the 27th this time around because that’s the only thing that makes since. So for all you working pukes out there, sometime between November 26th and December 9th you need to change your allotment to $18500 / 27 = $685.18. If you are 50 or older, you can also add the catchup funds $6000 / 26 = $222.22.

So here is a question for you. Let’s just say because you have the ability to put more than $685.18 into your TSP every two weeks, should you? I mean, why not? That means in the end you will have more money being invested. Well that’s true but you will be losing matching funds from the TSP. If you can’t put in $685.18 every two weeks, that’s ok, but if you go over, that’s bad. It is so much easier to show inside a spreadsheet, so I will show you a screen shot below.

SO above we have two different calculations. The one on the left is 15% of someone making $185,000 a year. Now scan down the first column and read line 19. Notice no matching funds from the TSP. Why? They only match $18500 and you have already met that number. Each week they will pay you no more than $346.15 in a pay period. Now look at the next set of numbers. This individual choose to divide $18500 / 27 for equal deductions of $685.19 and they did not met the $18500 limit until the 27th pay period. They got every single payment of $346.15 which equals $9346.14. The first person only got 18 payments for $6230.77. That person lost $3115.18. Damn!! So, just make sure that you do not deposit anymore than $685.19 for 27 periods and you will be ok. Never select the percentage of pay to with hold, select a dollar value.

Once again, Thanks to Scott Zittle for making sure that I had my information correct. Well done!

TSP weekly numbers and charts of of 11/3/17

2017-11-03T23:07:00.001-04:00

The Small Cap and S&P 500 canceled each out this week, but the International came in and saved the week. This makes the first few days of November a positive start to the month. My new 12 month PIP is posted upper left of the top chart. That is a once in a lifetime PIP. It is destine to go down next time because all you have to do is read that top chart, look down the Nov2016 column, and you will see a 6.31% for myself and that’s going to be difficult to surpass. I’ve had an exceptional run the last 12 months with one negative month and that was .05% loss. The monthly moves have done well the last 12 months. Now to the charts.

The S&P 500 made new all time highs again this week. This slow grind higher is my favorite type of move. There is no drama. Volatility is low which is positive. The DMI is also positive. This is the type of grind we like and we ride.

The Small Cap was suppose to be on a breakout run for another 70 points. That breakout was 2 weeks ago and we have yet to see any follow through to the high side. This is concerning too me. It is possible that price is just consolidating before that big run up, but it needs to make that move soon. If we are doing the same thing by the end of next week, I would expect this breakout move to fail and lower prices will ensue. It also appears the short term uptrend is beginning to break down. This is not as important as the long term that is undeneath it, so for now we ride and wait to see what happens next week. No matter what happens, it just an indicator that things could be changing. No official move will be made by me until the end of the November.

The International broke out of it’s small bull flag that formed last week. I say small because the pole is only 1.68 points. That takes us about another .90 cents higher. I’ll still take that move. What you cannot see on this chart yet is the overhead resistance that is sitting at $70.79. That dates back to June 2014. Price might pause there, but I have my doubts. That was so long ago that I doubt the price will have a memory of those levels. The only thing it means is that we are close to making new highs that date back to 2014. Notice I didn’t say all time highs? That’s because that level is $88.71 and dates back to 2007. So we still have work to do here. The International so far has kicked butt in 2017 and we will continue to ride.

Bonds flattened out this week and appears to be making another attempt to end the down trend. Volatility is still low which is good. DMI is still negative. Not sure which direction Bonds will take, but I see no reward in taking an early position here eevn if I wanted to take a chance. This is just a watch for a trend change.

Conclusion: November got off to a good start this week. I still expect a that this long run in higher prices will end eventually and sooner than later, but since I cannot predict the future, I will ride this trend until it changes.

I heard from one of my younger followers here this week and they told me that at the retirement seminars they were pushing ROTH’s. I want to make sure that you understand something here. Now I could possibly be wrong because I do not know everything and sometimes things change and I miss them. If you are and ATC FERS employee and are forced to retire at 56 years of age, be careful investing in a ROTH inside the TSP. Why? There are no special rules put out by the IRS that cover you from 56 to 59.5 for ATC retirees. So what does that mean? You will pay a penalty for 3.5 years if you withdrawal any funds from your TSP. And to answer you next question. No, you cannot tell the TSP folks to pay you out of your traditional 401K side instead of the ROTH. If you make a withdrawal from your TSP, they will take 50% out of the Traditional side and 50% out of the ROTH side. You will pay that penalty, which I think is 10%, on the ROTH side until you reach the age of 59.5. So my suggestion to you if you want a ROTH, is find one outside the TSP. There are many benefits to ROTH, just make sure you understand the withdrawal rules if you are ATC and forced into early retirement.

If someone has a different point of view or knowledge of the ROTH rules for ATC inside the TSP, please post them here and educate us all. I would appreciate it.