omnikarma

Inside St. Pearly pub for the France Belgium game

2018-07-10T08:49:00.001-07:00

Legal disclaimer: the characters and situations in today’s blogpost may be fictional. If you feel otherwise, do let me know. It very well maybe the consequence of incessant TV viewing over the last 30 days. Football virgins are welcome to read my blog, but no queries of any kind will be entertained - sorry, the game starts in a few hours. More terrible and irrelevant stuff available on www.omnikarma.blogspot.com

It is July 10, 2068. We are inside St Pearly’s gastro Pub near the Pearly Gates of Heaven. It is the 50th anniversary celebration of the 2018 WC from Russia. Fans that lived to witness footballing history from Moscow and other Russian cities as of course on the (now defunct) internet and on (now completely extinct) television broadcasts have died and reached footballing heaven. This elite community is currently crowded around the massive sports bar area. The large screens around the watering hole are showing highlights from the now epic France vs. Belgium semi-finals from WC 2018. A guy that looks like Pootin (now I can’t say the actual names, right) is sharing his bowl of peanuts with a Mayrkayl lookalike. Maybe he is chatting her up. A fair sprinkling of Brazilian, German and Spanish jerseys in the crowd - they are all trying to chat up a couple of blondes from, Gothenburg, of course. But the biggest cheers and noise are coming from the dozens of French and Belgian supporters. Barpeople (it is illegal to describe them otherwise) are handing out copious amounts of Jupiter beer and Pouilly Fuse to the thirsty crowd. The highlights package is in French - of course Flemish (yes, language spoken in the 20th century in one half of Belgium) is understood by fewer than 100,000 people currently and has been officially outlawed by the Belgian five party coalition. So we stick to French. Just for this game, though.

The game kicks off with the Les Bleus fielding a lone striker Giroud playing centrally matching the opposite number Lukaku. I order my first Kingfisher beer as the Frenchie next to me explains why Deschamps had made a big mistake by not starting with two real strikers upfront. He is also furious at the Belgian assistant coach Thiery Henry (member of the French team that won the WC in 1998. I nod in agreement as I turn my attention back to the screen. Both teams are holding onto possession in the first twenty minutes - mainly consisting of the Belgian back four exchanging side passes and backpasses - leading to massive cat calls and whistles from the huge French crowd - they are outnumbering the Belgian supporters at St.Pete by a margin of 5:1. There is even a large banner in the crowd that is showing solidarity to the 13 Thai boys and their coach who were rescued from a cave near Pattaya beach earlier in the day. Word is that the FIFA have invited the 13 to watch the finals in Moscow. The Belgian supporters at the pub are singing as if they have already won the Cup. Fair enough - they have never progressed this far in previous editions.

A Gary Linekar lookalike sitting across the bar is looking glum as he downs his third pint. ‘It ain’t coming home’, says Mr Linekar. I whisper under my breath - ‘yep, not since 1966 - mate’.

Eden Hazard has just been brought down by Pogba on the left side line and immediately gets a ticking off from the referee. The resultant free kick is brilliantly saved by the Spurs and France keeper Hugo Lloris and rolls away for a corner kick. A spray of fine Champagne lands on my head as the French have taken up on the Brits in ‘Spray it up’ celebrations. Mr. Linekar wakes up from his slumber as he throws up his pint and joins in the festivities. Much of the dark ale lands on the Pootinisque Russian chatting up the German. Two very fine Amazonian bouncers (remember we are in 2068 !!) with their Fitness First muscle tees arrive out of nowhere just as Kevin De Bruyne places the ball in place near the corner flag. Mr. Linekar gets a massive reprimand from the taller of the two bouncers. And calm prevails in the universe.

What ? Belgium have just scored as Vertonghen’s header off the corner lands on the roof of the French net. Replays show it actually went off Raphael Varane’s head - but the goal stands. The Red Devils go into the break with a 1-0 lead. Deschamps is shaking his head in disbelief. So are the dozens of Frenchies in the bar. ‘Off side. Not off side’. I head to the loo as I do not want to partake in this banality. The queue at the unisex loo is longer than the one for drinks. A dark Brazilian woman next to me thinks the Latinos deserved to be in the semis. I nod my head indicating my strong agreement to her amazing observation. The six footer German guy next to me brings up the topic of 2014. I ignore him and continue my ‘by Now - private’ conversation with the Brazilian.

The barperson has replaced the Jupiter keg for the 5th time this evening as the Belgians are soaking it up. A big chubby Belgian from Antwerp is buying drinks for the entire house - the French oblige and raise a toast for the Croats to beat the English the following day. One inebriate Frenchman has ordered a round of Kronebourg 1664 as a gesture of quid pro quo. ‘c'est la meilleure bière française’ says the Frenchie. But there are very few takers as the second half kicks off.

France are now playing with two upfront - Griezmann and Giroud, with Mbappe playing in a more attacking role centrally. The Belgian back four are continuing to stay strong as Vertonghen, Kompally, Vermalen and Alderweld continue to frustrate the French trio poaching into the Belgian half. It is the 70th minute and the clock is ticking down. The French in the bar have stopped their choruses much to the relief of the rest of us. The Pootin is cosying upto the Markayl. They are certainly not discussing the football on the screens. Russian rock bands, maybe ? (Mathew Mathew Jacob - Pussy Riot maybe ?)

The supporters in red, blue and white let out a huge roar as an aerial ball from Pogba from the centre of the pitch is received by Giroud but he is brought to the ground by Kompany who has pulled him down in the Belgian box. The referee points to the spot and Kompany gets a yellow card. Griezmann scores his fourth of the tournament of a well taken penalty kick as Courtois goes the wrong way to the left. ‘Game on’, a way cry is let out by a number of us fans. The Belgians have ordered more refills as the French are still cuddling to their Pouilly Fumes and Fuses. The tray of Kronenbourg 1664 has few takers, still.

We are on to the last 3 minutes of regular time. The Belgians are going all out to finish the game in normal time. De Bruyne, Hazard and Lukaku have all tested Lloris multiple times this evening but the score stands at 1-1. Kompany and Vertonghen trade passes with each other but the French are pushing them back to the touch line.

Oh no !! What just happened. Kompany’s back pass to Courtois is weak as Pogba latches onto the ball and provides a brilliant side pass to Mbappe who is 1:1 with Courtois. He deftly chips the ball above the Belgian keeper and into the empty net. The Belgians are furious especially their coach Martinez. No offside says the linesman. VAR also confirms the decision and the French march into the finals. Where the Croats or the English await.

The Belgians in the pub cant believe it. They order more beer in anticipation of a second Belgian goal. The humor is not lost as the sole Dutchman in the bar is paying for this round. The froth in the Kronenbourg 1664 looks like it came from 1964. Pootin has left the bar. The Brazilian tells me - he did leave with the German. Mr Linekar is chatting up the bar person only to be handed over his bill for his 7th pint. And some loose change, of course.

The final whistle goes off as Deschamps jumps into the arms of his assistant. The Belgian camp is distraught as Thiery Henry is ruing his decision to have become the ‘enemy of the French nation’. The entire French team is on the pitch as the Belgians sink to the ground. Martinez is consoling De Bruyne who is weeping inconsolably.

I pay for my drinks and head out of St Pearly’s pub. It was one of the best World Cup games of the 2018 edition. One that I thoroughly enjoyed with me footie army.

Neil George

And then there were 8 little pigs

2018-07-06T05:37:00.001-07:00

Multiple legal disclaimers: today’s WC 2018 blogpost contains many references to animals. No malice intended at any nationality or race or religion, my apologies in advance if any of you are offended. Second: Mathew Jacob Subodh Balakrishnan and Dharmesh Karmokar are grinding their teeth and are currently calling me ‘animal’ names due to the amazing accuracy with which I have been able to predict the line-ups for the QF’s starting in a few hours. Their apologies are accepted in advance.

And then there were eight little pigs. And one Big Bad Wolf. Still not clear. Ha ! Allow me to explain. One of my all time favourite bedtime stories from childhood, I am sure many of you have used this story to get your little ones to sleep - is the Three Little Pigs. The story has the proverbial three little pigs sent out by their Mom to face the evil world. And each of them makes a home - one with straw, the second with sticks and the ‘smart’ one with RCC bricks. 🙂

And then comes the BBW - Big Bad Wolf and the story gets more exciting when we come to these famous lines:

Little pig, little pig, let me come in."
"not by the hair on my chinny chin chin."
"Then I'll huff, and I'll puff, and I'll blow your house in."

We all know what happens eventually.

The Quarter Finals starting today remind me of the fable above. The billions of fans represent the proverbial mother in the story. And each team is like a little pig - 32 of them started the tournament. Some of these 32 have been patiently building houses since 2010 - e.g Belgium, Croatia, France and Uruguay. Some of them have been sitting on their glass tiled porches of their wooden cabins from club football glory and of previous World cups - Germany, Argentina, Spain !! Some of them have been pained from the last 8-10 years and have been going to ‘Piggy University’ to reinvent themselves - England and notably Brazil (the Brazilian boy on CNN news stating after the infamous 7-1 loss - UNVELIEVABLE !! Still rings in every home from São Paulo to Sydney) and some little piggies just have been swept into the last 8 stage by sheer doggedness, some luck and lots of hard work - Russia and Sweden. But all 8 stare at the prospect of the Big Bad Wolf bringing their houses down today and tomorrow. And some of them have already had their homes destroyed in the last 20 days.

Hope you get my angle to the story so far. Monisha Jain Prasad Swaminathan now is a good time for the Puns, just in case !!

My prediction on June 8 was as follows for the QF line-up.

July 6: France vs. Uruguay
July 6: Brazil vs. Belgium
July 7: Spain vs. Argentina
July 7: England vs. Germany

Glad that my two favourites - Brazil and France plus both underdogs - England and Uruguay are still in it. I genuinely think the only other team that deserved to be here but not - is Spain. But hey, this is my blog, so my opinion counts too !!

What can we expect tonight ? Which two piggies will get blown out of sight by the BBW assisted by VRA !!

P.S: These days, you need to use loads of fancy technology sounding three letter acronyms to even get noticed in the blogosphere.

Both matches today - absolutely impossible to predict. But one thing is for sure - don’t miss a second of either game - because we are going to witness absolute WC classics.

France vs. Uruguay: if there was one prayer I wanted answered before this game - it would be for Edison Cavani to play. Unfortunately he is injured and not expected to start. France on the other hand will start without the influential Blase Matuidi who plays for Juve. Many outcomes. If Uruguay’s defense holds strong (so far only one goal let in) and play deep in their own half, France will find it difficult to score. Mbappé and company are unlikely to find the spaces and free runs like they did against Argentina. However France has big game players in Pogba, Griezmann and co. Uruguay on the other hand has some big match players like Suarez. It takes one slice of magic from Suarez (especially with his pace that can lead to bookings for the French or a strike from the corner of the box into Hugo Loris’ net). If Uruguay score first, I expect them to win on a 1-0. Else it is going to be a 2-1 or better for France. Watch outs for today - a Pogba red card or a Suarez led penalty. Tons of money at 21/20 for a France win, but hey the bookies have made tons of money this WC so far.

Brazil - Belgium: Sanjay Shende, I know you are slurping up this one. So am I and 3 billion other fellow earthlings. Why is this tie so popular ? A 100 reasons. I will give you my top three. Brazil out to erase the ghosts of 2014. Belgium out to prove their golden generation can win something. This current team (9 players have played 60 internationals together) has never entered the semis of a major tournament - so bragging rights on tap. Both these sides had three players each on the 2017 Ballon d’Or shortlist; Neymar, Marcelo and Philippe Coutinho for Brazil, with Kevin de Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Dries Mertens representing Belgium. That’s a lot of star quality on show tonight. But come to the crux. Brazil have the meanest defense in the tournament. Belgians the best goal scoring record. Marcelo is back in defense. Big plus. Coutinho and Neymar have not shown their true potential, yet. Belgians may have peaked. Both have the passion to win. Expect a thrilling 2-2 (or draw) in regular time and Neymar to score the winner in extra time !! Ha ha !! It can’t get any more clearer than this.

So friends - some advice before the games start. Manicure your finger nails (especially my 🇧🇷 friends Tatiana Moraes De Oliveira Ponce Lilian Cruz Fabíola Artoni Antonio Luis Galvao Costa ), have lots of beers and chips ready and get lots of tissues for the tears later on.

Enjoy the best night of the tournament. What say folks ? Which little pig is going to be devoured by the BBW tonight ?

July 1: Reflections on the France - Argentina game and preview of the Spain - Russia game

2018-07-01T22:59:00.002-07:00

Today, I have a blogpost of two halves - half 1 has some reflections on my predictions on the matches from last night and H2 has some thoughts on the first game (Russia-Spain) for tonight.

One of the greatest learning from football predictions is that, if done correctly, one can sharpen one’s decision making ability. Ideally like in non-sporting related decision making, all good managers look at many variables before making a final call. I have often found that my decision making ability (for serious stuff) continues to sharpen at work as I spend more time on trivial decision making. It is in this light I make some confessions below. Looking back at yesterday’s predictions, I made two rookie mistakes in making the 2-1 call on France defeating Argentina.

1. Mistake no:1: Despite concluding that both teams have the worlds best attacking sides, I assumed that both teams would have taken a defensive approach to a knockout game. I should have taken that punt on a Chelsea vs. Italy game (both historically defensive minded in big games) or on a game where at least one team is managed by Jose Mourinho 🤓 As we all know from hindsight, France scored on a counter early on and ended up with two attacking teams delivering a high scoring see saw thriller.

2. Mistake no:2: I assumed that (despite mentioning the potential of individual brilliance deciding the game) that the French midfield would control the game. Actually not - most of the goals were on swift counter attacks with no real midfield playmaking but sheer and simple out of the world strikes.

Note to self: in a football game, there are 100 million permutations and combinations that can decide the game. No wonder why bookies make money all the time against rookies like me.

Now on to tonight’s game. We look at four different aspects.

1. Team strength: Clearly in Spain’s favor except for point 2 below. Just like Brazil and France, Spain can easily field two world class sides from their 23 players. Great strikers, one of the best mid-field players in history (Andries Iniesta) and a truly amazing back-four that includes Sergio Ramos plus Gerard Pique. Not to forget brilliant playmakers like David Silva and Isco. I cannot think of one player from the current Russian team that would make it into the Spanish playing 11. Three other team strengths:
a. Passing and possession - less said the better.
b. Defenders that join in attack but still defend like mad dogs. Pique and Ramos would put any strike force to shame with their goal scoring abilities.
c. Ability to score from either wing or from the middle - a strength very few teams possess.

2. Red cards: Spain have at least three players that have a history of picking up red cards. Sergio Ramos has picked up 22 red cards in his career, yes !! And Diego Costa comes close. A superior history of missing games - and in my opinion only second to Luis Suarez of yester years - on foul play.

https://www.transfermarkt.com/diego-costa/ausfaelle/spieler/44779

The Russians are wily. The world wars would teach you this. If I am the Russian coach - I would get my players to do a little ‘Suarez’ play acting on these two and get them quiet.

3. Player familiarity: if there is one strength that Spain has ahead of all other teams - it is player familiarity. Almost the entire Spanish playing team play for three La Liga Clubs - FCB, Real Madrid and Athletico. Forget the Russians, no other WC Round 2 team could boast of this strength.

4. Momentum: here - Both teams on equal footing -
Slight advantage to Russia - although the Uruguay game exposed their flaws.

Net, net: i am not expecting a high scoring victory for Spain but most likely a 2-1 or a 2-0. However I have been wrong and hence if the La Rioja decide to go for it, William Hill offers a 10-1, 20-1 and 45-1 for a 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0 respectively. My pals Dharmesh Karmokar and Omkar Joshi most likely to make money on the 4-0 !!

No beers in the fridge for me Sanjay Shende, I have an early start to work and hence most likely not to watch the Denmark Croatia game which surprisingly has the bookies clearly favouring a Croatian win.

What say folks ?

June 30: A night for great football - Argentina vs. France

2018-06-30T02:07:00.001-07:00

An amazing and mouthwatering offer from WH (William Hill) on the first of the big Round 2 games caught my fancy this morning. ‘18-1 for France To Win, Antoine Griezmann & Lionel Messi Both To Score’. I almost reached out for my credit card but refrained. Because I just remembered this is the knockout stage, Mr.George. Stay calm and drink beer instead.
So I am leaving it to my punter pals Dharmesh Karmokar and Omkar Joshi to do the betting honours.

Three perspectives from today’s first match and a plethora of predictions.

First - the teams and strategies. It is going to be a game of similarities but equally amazing contrasts. Strikers - France has Giroud, Mbappe, Dmbele and the Athletico star. - Griezmann. The Argentinians have even more - Messi, Higuain, Dybala, Aguero and Di Maria. Both teams have enough players to fill the World 11 at least twice over. And both have history of being previous WC winners. That is pretty much where the similarities end. The French probably have the best midfield in the tournament with the mercurial Pogba (Man U star) leading a star cast that includes Matuidi, Lemar and Kante - friends who follow the various European leagues understand what I am talking about. This superiority plus the fact that Argentina has preferred to have 3 defenders makes the French firm favourites to win this game - except if the French pick up a red card OR the Argentinians score the first goal late in the game. Net - if the game starts with an Argentinian back four plus Messi and co playing more middle of the field and hit the French on a counter - game Argentina.

Second - the ages of teams. The Argentinians have 15 players in their side aged 30 or over. While France is fielding the youngest side in the tournament. In a knockout game that may go into extra time, you need younger legs in the final minutes of extra time. Clear advantage to France here.

Finally, there is the ‘star’ factor. Messi knows this is his final chance at winning the cup. The most elusive trophy in his bulging cabinet. Footie friends will also remember Aguero’s last minute extra time goal that hit Man City the Premier league on the final day of the League. Pogba, Giroud and Griezmann from France are also big game players - remember Griezmann was the Man of the Match in the 2018 Europa League finals scoring two out of the three goals for Athletico in their win against Marseille. If any of these stars shine, the match outcome will be impossible to predict right now.

All in all - a great game of football expected tonight ahead of the Portugal - Uruguay game.

I am going for a 1-1 or 2-1 in the France Argentina game with Deschamp’s Les Bleus to progress eventually. The second game is too close to call but has a similar script as in the first game. Expect the Latinos to progress in a thrilling game.

What say folks ? Beers in the fridge yet ?

June 26: The day of reckoning for Messi and Co. Why Argentina will struggle to get into Round 2 - but eventually will.

2018-06-27T04:20:00.001-07:00

Statutory warning: as requested by my football virgin pal Monisha Jain - readers are cautioned as the following post may contain too many references to football, World Cup and World Cup football and no reference to Donald Trump or Kim Kardashian

After last night's final minute thrillers in Group B, the stage is set for at least three other fantastic games tonight at the WC final Group stage games (Groups C and D). I will write about only one of them and briefly touch upon the other two. And yes, we are talking about the must-win game for Argentina against Nigeria. Why must-win ? ONLY if Argentina win against Nigeria AND in the other game of the Group D Iceland fail to win against Croatia (i.e. Draw or lose) - then Messi and Co. go through to the 2nd round as Group D Runner-up behind Croatia. Remember - Croatia have already qualified for Round 2 after winning both their Round 1 matches. Reports from Russia indicate that Croatia will be resting all their crucial players on yellow cards so that they don't risk the problem of second yellow cards for the same players tonight (and subequent one game miss in crucial Round 2 stage).
A quick look at the two teams. Nigeria is the current football Bronze medalist at the 2016 Olympics behind Brazil/Germany. The team has a decent number of Premier League players (Victor Moses, John Obi Mikel, Alex Iwobi). They have previously beaten Argentina in a 2017 friendly (yes, believe it or not) 4-2 despite having fewer shots at goal and 34% possession in that game. Plus they have the added advantage that they can possibly scrape through with a draw (assuming Iceland dont thrash Croatia). Alex Iwobi (Arsenal player) who scored two of those goals in the famous 4-2 win is likley to start tonight. So a strong opponent for the men in Blue and White.
Argentina on the other hand (and contrary to popular belief) have had a torrid route to tonight. We all know of their incredibly poor performance against Croatia and a lacklustre delivery against Iceland in the opener. Their South America WC qualifier rounds read something like this:
Beat Ecuador 3-0 (Messi hat-trick)
Drew Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
Lost to Bolivia 0-2
Beat Chile 1-0 (Messi)
Beat Colombia 3-0 (Messi)
Lost to Brazil 0-3, Lost to Paraguay 0-1
Beat Peru 2-0...
And the list goes on....Eventually ending up third in the South American qualification en route to Russia. So honestly, one shouldn’t be surprised about their performance in the WC finals so far.
But the real problem is that they have too many superstar strikers that do not score enough goals. Messi, Dybala, Higuain, De Maria and Aguero were among the top strikers in the Spanish, Italian (both Higuain and Dybala play for Juventus), French and English Premier Leagues. Between them, they have scored more than 100 goals and provided many more assists. Then you wonder why these superstar strikers don't score goals. My two bits:
a. they lack a real world class midfield playmaker like Iniesta or Pogba. And hence their superstar strikers miss being spoon fed with quality assists.
b. Adding to the problem, the superstar strikers like Messi play too upfront and act like Divas. This is in stark contrast to genuine team focused strikers like Douglas Costa, Ronaldo and Harry Kane who often come to aid the midfield and defenders and also to start attacking moves.
However, you cannot write-off the Argentinians. Their fans are behind them; they have an amazing footballing pride that cannot be quantified and this is possibly Messi's last WC (haven't we heard that before ?). Expect some magic from these guys tonight to ensure they provide a Sachin Tendulkar like farewell (the WC victory that the Indian cricketer and India received as a send off gift). Argentina will most likely start with a three man strike force - Messi, Di Maria and Higuain (although I would want Dybala and Higuain to start with Messi given both of them play for Juventus and have very good understanding and 38 goals between them the last season). A 2-0 win for Argentina would be a popular punt but a 1-0, 2-1 or 1-1 maybe possible. My heart is hoping for a 3-1 win for Argentina but my brain says 2-1. Amen.
Given that both France & Denmark can both go through with a draw against each other in the eariler game - I can safely predict a 1-1 or 0-0. Expect it to be a dull/drab game. The Aussies will certainly try their luck to win against Peru as they have a slight chance of qualifying if they win (and Denmark lose). Another 1-0 or 2-1 likely for the boys from Down Under.
What say folks ?

June 25 - WC 2018: Game Theory & the cloak and dagger between the Russians, Latinos and Portugese

2018-06-24T22:22:00.000-07:00

What a fantastic Round 1 so far. But it is about to get more interesting from tonight. And my post is going to be laden with some thoughts mixed with Game theory !

A bit of rewind: The first two rounds of this edition of the WC have produced far exciting football than in the Group stages of the previous editions in recent WC history - this despite 1) not having the Azzurri and the Oranje (the Italians and the Dutch for those uninitiated about the connection between shirt Colors and football teams) and 2) partially as a result of point 1, not having a Group of Death in the 2018 edition (Group of Death usually refers to a group of equally strong teams in a tournament that makes it difficult for any team to proceed - and conversely leads to sudden death early on in the tournament). And that has partially to do with performance relative to expectations. Why ? Pre- tournament favourites (both according to FIFA rankings and with the bookies) Germany, Brazil & Argentina (#1,2 and 5 on the FIFA rankings) have not fired yet ! Poland & Peru (ranked 8 and 11) are out of the tournament already. Underrated hosts Russia (#70) & rank outsiders Croatia and Sweden (#20 and 24 respectively) have played well above expectations. 8 teams - Spain, France, Portugal, England, Uruguay, Belgium, Denmark and Switzerland have all played to their Top 15 rankings so far and hence on track to qualify for the knockout stage (mathematically speaking the round where Top 16 teams are supposed to play - if they live upto their billings !). I was also extremely impressed with the quality of football played by Iran, Morocco, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia - which bodes well for a very good Round 1. Those interested in finding out more about the FIFA rankings, please do go through the website, link below.

https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html

So, what can we expect from tonight ? Even more exciting football. And some Game Theory. Why ? I say - Why Not?

The Russia - Uruguay game is one that will underscore the point I am ranting about. The winner of the Russia-Uruguay game will meet the Runner-up of Group B (Spain or Portugal). The Russians are in a funny situation. If they win or draw, they go through as Group Winners. If the Spaniards and the Portuguese are smart, they will want to meet the Russians in Round 2 and not the mightier Uruguayans. Now wily Ronaldo’s Portuguese are thinking the same - they rather meet the Russians. On the other hand - the Uruguayans are possibly thinking - hey, we would like to meet the Portuguese rather than the better Spaniards. And FIFA plays big Daddy here - there is no way that the teams (esp Uruguay and Russia) can predict their next round opponents as their games kicks off a few hours earlier than the final games of Group B. On the other hand - both the Spaniards and Portuguese would have known the winners of Group A before their matches kick-off and hence can pace their respective matches to ensure either of them play the Russians. So likely outcomes:

If Russia top Group A (I.e - an outcome due to Russia winning against Uruguay or a draw): both Spain and Portugal to play out draws later tonight. And both trying to outdo each other with a late yellow card (remember tied teams on points and goal difference will get negative points on number of yellow or red cards, read my earlier post on this topic).

If Uruguay Top Group A (only happens if they beat Russia tonight): both Portugal and Spain to go out and try and win their final games tonight.

Putting game theory into action - Uruguay (and for that matter Russia) know that between Spain and Portugal - Spain have a better chance of beating Morocco than Portugal beating Iran (simply because Iran better than Morocco so far in this tournament and also because Iran will go all out to win given that a win takes them into Round 2). Hence better for Suarez/Cavani and company to go and win the Russia game tonight and most likely face Portugal or Iran in Round 2. Ditto for the Russians !

Net net - as you would imagine - it is going to be extremely difficult to predict the scores for tonight. My game theory based predictions: Uruguay to win vs. Russia in a hard fought 2-1/3-1/3-2 (William Hill offering a mouthwatering 22-1 on the 3-1) and Spain to beat Morocco 2-0/3-0 and Portugal to beat Iran (1-0 or 2-1). I am sticking my neck out here - what about you folks ?

WC 2018 Curtain Raiser: Let the games begin

2018-06-10T09:50:00.000-07:00

Legal disclaimer: the author shall not be liable for any mental, financial or reputational loss arising out of actions taken after reading this post, especially on online betting sites.

Welcome back to Omnikarma where the banter is usually about footie, politics, leadership and marketing. It has been a while but hey, the World Cup brings the best out of this blog and its readers. So here goes..

Prelude: Like for most of my close friends, my first World Cup viewing experience dates back to 1982 when Italy won the final against W Germany (yes, we had to differentiate between W and E Germany those days ?!) on the back of the powerful performance of Paolo Rossi. Since then, I have probably watched almost all of the crucial games in the eight World Cups played after 82 (on TV mostly). And crucially, I have never held back from predicting the winner of the tournament via a number of public posts. Some of you may remember my emails on the subject in 1998 (Vijay Santhanam even had the courage to use my predictions to bet on Derek Saul’s famous P&G betting syndicate) to my FB and blog posts from the 2014 Brazil World Cup. And I promise - the 2018 edition will not be any different. I shall continue on my tradition by writing my (now) infamous WC curtain raiser today. Infamous because I have got almost all my predictions wrong mostly by betting on Brazil and England to deliver miracles in the past eight editions when clearly all the data showed Germany, France, Spain and/or Italy to deliver significantly better. And this year will be no different.

So, I will cover three main debates in this WC Curtain Raiser post - 1) who will win the WC in 2018, 2) in case you had to choose, which matches should you watch before the Quarter Final stage and 3) what teams should you support because your favourite Italian, Dutch or American teams are not playing in this edition of the world’s favourite sporting event.

So the Billion Dollar question. Who will win the World Cup ? My take (in true Consultant style) - it depends. Three possible winners and two dark horses. Let’s dive right in. As always, the best insights come from the bookies. Odds offered by Bookies reflect the collective wisdom of football pundits and popular vote. Bookies (at least the ones that make profits) tend to get their results right; so listen to them. Brazil at 4-1 is the favourite slightly ahead of Germany, Spain and France. The top 4 are followed by Argentina, Belgium, England, Uruguay and Portugal.

The case for Brazil is clear. New coach Tite has been in place since 2016, the poor performing central midfield has been completely cleared out after the 7-1 hammering by the Germans (and now looking strong with Casemiro and Coutinho), Neymar slowly coming back to form (and teaming up with Gabriel Jesus and Firmino) and a team that is looking to erase the ‘ghosts’ of 2014. So Brazil start as my firm favourite to win the trophy this year.

The Germans come with the confidence being the title defenders but have been erratic since. Despite the loss to the French in the 2016 Euro semis, Joachim Loewe’s team come with the huge advantage of player familiarity. 6 of the current players play for the Bayern Munich side and most players have been together either for the national or club sides for the last decade. Manuel Neuer has just come back from an injury which may be a crucial weakness especially in the tie-breaker games in the knockout stages. They also have a potentially difficult knockout draw and most likely to face their first difficult game in the Quarters against Belgium or England (more about that later) and the Spaniards or Argentinians in the semis. My prediction: the Germans will not proceed beyond the Semis.

I have two second favourites - Spain and France. Both teams are packed with superstars - young as well as experienced, and moreover recent form in friendlies has been very good. The French come with a powerful overall line-up (Pogba, Griezman, Mbappe, Loris, Lemar, N’golo Kante) while the Spaniards come with the amazing stat that 13 of their players come from just 3 clubs - Athletico, Real and Barcelona - that have all enjoyed local and international success in recent times. Spain’s fortunes at the WC, though will potentially hinge on one critical game (see below).

And the two dark horses - England and Uruguay. For a change, the English come with a very good squad devoid of diva superstars (and their WAGs), a very good tactical manager in Southgate, an excellent strike force led by Harry Kane & Sterling and for the first time in recent history, they come with the advantage of the English media behind them. Currently William Hill are offering a mouthwatering 16-1 for the English. I am tempted, but I shall hold my pounds for now.

Uruguay - much rides on the form of their legendary striking pair of Edison Cavani and Luiz Suarez. Both are in decent form. Add in an experienced manager (Tabarez) and a couple of excellent defenders from Athletico (Godin and Gimenez) plus not to forget the fact that the average height of the team is about 180 cms (especially important when they play games against France and Portugal, their likely opponents in the early knockout stages - with aerially gifted players like CR7 and Pogba to thwart).

Which brings me to the second debate. What are the critical games.

To me, there are three critical meetings in the Group stages. Portugal 🇵🇹 vs. Spain 🇪🇸 on June 15. Uruguay 🇺🇾 vs. Russia 🇷🇺 on June 25. And the thriller of them all England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 vs. Belgium 🇧🇪 on June 28. Winners of each of these games are likely to top their respective groups and get a more favorable Round 2 opponent.

Needless to say, the tournament gets alive in the Quarter final stage and my prediction for the QF line-up is:

France vs. Uruguay - July 6

Brazil vs. Belgium - July 6.

Spain vs. Argentina - July 7

Germany vs. England - July 7.

The only change to the above may be the interchange of England and Belgium depending on the winner of the game between these two sides on June 28.

And the final piece - if you are missing the Italians, Dutch and the Americans - what should you do. Many options - a) watch Wimbledon instead. b) House of Cards Season 2 on Netflix. c) holiday to the Vatican or d) enjoy the Rotterdam Jazz festival. Plenty of Americans, Italians and the Dutch on show.

So, let the games begin.

Happy to get comments and critiques !!

Part 3: Update - The Acceleration of Consolidation in the FMCG Industry

2017-02-19T21:59:00.000-08:00

NOTE: THE VIEWS PROVIDED HERE ARE ENTIRELY MY OWN. IN NO WAY DO THE POINTS MENTIONED HERE REPRESENT THE VIEWS OF MY CURRENT OR FORMER EMPLOYERS.

Welcome back to Omnikarma and Thank you for visiting my little blog page. Where the banter is usually around football, marketing, wine, leadership and music - usually in that order. It has been a while since I posted here - but most of my friends and colleagues know that I am super busy with the release of my first book - 'Building the Perfect Beast - What really happens in Brand Management'. (https://www.facebook.com/BTPerfectBeast/). More about this later - but today I wanted to provide my views and predictions on a topic that I first wrote about in 2013. i.e. the changing global dynamics in the FMCG industry and how further consolidation is playing out and expected to play out in the coming weeks and months.

In case you have been on a vacation to Mars and didn't have access to the media, here are some of the major developments in the FMCG M&A space since October 2015 (the last time I provided an update on this topic):

February 2016: Nestle SA agreed to buy out minority shareholders of Osem Investments Ltd., Israel’s largest publicly-traded foodmaker, for about 3.3 billion shekels ($844 million), returning to acquisitions in the industry after a series of divestments. Osem, which makes Cheerios breakfast cereal, hummus and a peanut-butter-flavored snack called Bamba, is Nestle’s biggest food acquisition since 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

March 2016: Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. and JAB Holding Company today announced the successful completion of the acquisition of Keurig Green Mountain by a JAB-led investor group.

August 2016: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and Jet.com, Inc. today announced they have entered into a definitive agreement for Walmart to acquire Jet for approximately $3 billion in cash, a portion of which will be paid over time. Additionally, $300 million of Walmart shares will be paid over time as part of the transaction. The acquisition will build on and complement the significant foundation already in place to serve customers across the Walmart app, site and stores and position the company for even faster e-commerce growth in the future by expanding customer reach and adding new capabilities.

October 2016: Coty Inc. announced today that it has completed the merger of The Procter & Gamble Company’s fine fragrance, color cosmetics, salon professional and hair color and certain styling businesses (“P&G Specialty Beauty Business”) into Coty. Coty is now the third-largest beauty company in the world, with approximately $9 billion in revenue. As a combined company, Coty will also hold the number one position in fragrances, and number two and three positions in salon hair and color cosmetics, respectively.

October 2016: Asahi Group has acquired Miller Brands UK, adding premium brands like Peroni Nastro Azzurro, Grolsch and Meantime to its portfolio of beers. The Japanese brewer’s investment in the new company and the acquisition of Miller Brands, which will become Asahi UK, is part of Asahi Europe’s strategy to lead the development of the continent’s super-premium beer sector, the company said.

November 2016: WPP announces that it has acquired, subject to regulatory approval, Promotion Execution Partners, LLC, a project management and procurement company that oversees shopper marketing promotions for clients, in the US. The acquisition continues WPP’s strategy of investing in high-priority segments, such as shopper marketing and e-commerce, and important markets, such as the US. According to the Association of National Advertisers, spending on shopper marketing is projected to grow to US$18.64 billion from 2016 to 2020, a 5.8% CAGR.
January 2017: Britain's biggest retailer announced that it was merging with Booker, the UK's top food wholesaler, in a £3.7bn deal. In a joint statement, the two companies said that the combined group would bring benefits for consumers, independent retailers, caterers, small businesses, suppliers, and colleagues, and deliver “significant value to shareholders”.

January 2017: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. and Rite Aid Corporation today announced that they have entered into an amendment and extension of their previously announced definitive merger agreement under which Walgreens Boots Alliance will acquire all outstanding shares of Rite Aid, a U.S. retail pharmacy chain.

February 2017: Heineken N.V. announces today that it has entered into an agreement with Kirin Holdings Company, Limited to acquire Brasil Kirin Holding S.A., one of the largest beer and soft drinks producers in Brazil. The transaction will transform HEINEKEN's existing business across the country by extending its footprint, increasing scale and further strengthening its brand portfolio. On closing, HEINEKEN will become the second largest beer company in Brazil, with a stronger commercial platform from which to capture future profitable growth in an exciting beer market.

February 2017: Kraft Heinz announced on Friday a proposed $143 billion merger with Unilever in what would be one of the biggest deals ever (Note: the deal was subsequently dropped).

There are 5 common and recurrent themes across a number of these developments:
1. Margin improvement/Premiumisation
2. Need for Scale (in a world of falling demand) & Bargaining power in the industry
3. Key individuals, companies and families driving the consolidation
4. Emerging markets
5. E-commerce and digitalisation.

I think all points above are fairly self explanatory but Point 3 needs special mention. I call out the amazing fact that around 15 individuals are leading the consolidation in the industry:

The aggressive Brazilians: Jorge Paulo Lemann, Carlos Alberto Sicupira, Marcel Herrmann Telles, Roberto Thompson Motta and Alex Behring - all founding partners of 3G Capital. The brains and moneyballs behind the ABInbev, Kraft Heinz and the recent Unilever bids.

The Sage of Omaha: Warren Buffet, one of the key players in funding the Heinz acquisition.

The JAB trio: Bart Becht, Peter Harf and Olivier Goudet. All FMCG industry veterans and the engine for the JAB Holding company.

The CEOs: Rakesh Kapoor (RB), Paul Polman (Unilever), Sir Martin Sorrell (WPP), Doug McMillon (Wal-Mart), Stefano Pessina (Walgreen Boots Alliance) and Jean-François van Boxmeer (Heineken). And soon Ulf Mark Schneider (Nestle).

If you have been following my central theme (i.e. consolidation on one side leads to consolidation in other parts of the value chain), then I predict the following:

Further consolidation in the media and advertising agency industries. Are we going to see the Publicis Omnicom merger back on the table ?

Even further consolidation in industries like beer (Carlsberg next ?) & Personal care (watchout for Revlon, Rituals and Bull Dog),

Disposals and subsequent mergers: Lower profitability segments like home care are ripe for this activity (are we going to see RB carve out its home care business into a separate business - maybe merge it with Colgate Palmolive or P&G jettisoning off its Laundry and Home care business).

Mega retail merger: Tesco with Carrefour Or Wal-mart with Carrefour ?

So, please keep a watch out - for acceleration of consolidation in the FMCG industry. Keen to hear your feedback and comments. Please sign up below if you would like to follow my blog on a regular basis. Till we meet again.

My original article rom July 2013.

https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2121532005961592647#editor/target=post;postID=7153193287822144884;onPublishedMenu=template;onClosedMenu=template;postNum=26;src=postname

Euro 2016 Curtain raiser: Unpredictability Central

2016-06-10T04:26:00.001-07:00

Welcome back to Omnikarma. Where football trumps everything else. If you are not a Gooner, time to sign out. If you love marketing more than your beer, you are in the right place. Thank you also for the wonderful comments and feedback on previous posts; please keep them coming. Today, I provide a brief curtain raiser to the Euro 2016 tournament in France. And I promise, there will be minimal references to Wenger's choice of strikers for next season.

Before I start my discourse on potential winners, let me share a wonderful simulator tool that I discovered online. Great to try out all permutations and combinations. Hope you like it too.

http://euro2016.eurosport.co.uk/

Now back to business. Readers of this Blog will obviously be aware of my highly unsuccessful past record of predicting the winners at the WC and European championships. This year, it will be no different. But I have a perfectly good reason why I may be way off the mark this year (once again !). Data from different sources reveal a divergent pattern i.e. One of France, Germany, Spain, England, Belgium or Italy could lift the trophy on July 10 in Paris. Why do I say that ?

Home turf advantage: France being the host country and featuring some of the finest players from across the world leagues have a clear advantage.

What the bookies say: Both of the leading bookies - William Hill and Ladbrokes provide the shortest odds on France followed by Germany, Spain, England and Belgium. I am a bit surprised that Italy gets a 18:1/16:1 with both bookies. So, the popular money is on the French and the Germans. If I were a betting man (and you know I am not), then I would certainly fancy the odds being offered on Belgium, Italy, Sweden (100:1), Austria (33:1) and Wales (66:1).

	W Hill	Ladbrokes
France	3:1	16:5
Germany	4:1	9:2
Spain	5:1	5:1
England	8:1	8:1
Belgium	11:1	10:1
Italy	18:1	16:1

FIFA rankings: Based on their outstanding progress over the past few years, Belgium at No:2 is the highest ranked team in this year's tournament. Germany (5), Spain (6), Portugal (8), England (10) and Italy (15) follow. France is placed a distant 21st in the rankings. Austria (11), Turkey (13) and Switzerland (14) are no pushovers. So, Belgians are the favorites on this front.

Player familiarity: I have used this as a leading indicator across many past tournaments. Basically, player familiarity indicates how well players mesh in with each other in a team; especially given that most European players play bulk of their football at various clubs across Europe (mostly). The Italians come top here with 10 of their current squad coming from Juventus, Roma and Napoli. The Germans come second here with 9 of their players picked from the 2015-16 Bayern, Dortmund and Leverkusen squads; with the added advantage of Joachim Low (side note: Low is the current Nivea Men brand ambassador; just saying !!) having been their coach since 2006. France have a relatively poor score here with only 3 players coming in from PSG, Lyon and Monaco. So Didier Deschamps will have a tough job here. But I think England scores big on this area with 16 players coming from the top 6 clubs. I give Italy, Germany and England the edge here.

Luck of the draw: There are some critical games in the tournament. The most important is the Belgium vs. Italy game on June 13. The loser is most likely to play a tough Portugese side on June 26 (and the winner then faces a potential game against the Germans in the Quarter Finals on July 2 - which is likely going to be one the finest games of the tournament). If Belgium win this game, they are likely to play Austria in the quarterfinals on July 3.The other big game of the tournament is most likely going to be on July 1 QF in Lille (most likely) between the French and the Spaniards. So if my predictions come true, the semi final contests will be England vs. Spain & Germany vs. Belgium. All 4 permutations for the finals will be fantastic for fans and viewers; the popular money would be on Germany vs. Spain (or France, if they can win the QF). While I will be rooting for a Belgium vs. England finals on July 10. The hosts will be rooting for France. The dark horses clearly are the Italians, Austrians and the Swedes.

So happy viewing; with less than 4 hours to kick-off - this will be one of the finest (and most unpredictable) Euro championships in recent history. Don't forget to join the banter on Facebook, Twitter or LinkedIn with me !! (and to all those football widows and widowers, time to catch up on some 'Me' time) !! Ciao !!

The acceleration of consolidation in the FMCG industry: An update after the AB InBev/SAB Miller & Walgreens Boots/Rite-Aid combines

2015-10-29T07:22:00.000-07:00

Welcome back to Omnikarma. Thank you for the amazing number of reads and the responses via personal e-mails to my previous post on The Big 5*5. And please continue to share your feedback and critiques on the topics being discussed here.

Today, I wanted to provide a quick update on a post that I published about two years ago (in case you missed it, you can read the original blog at the very end). In short the key message in that blog was that there were would be a rapid(and further) consolidation within the FMCG space - across retailers, suppliers and the branded players - and until then we would see a significant amount of turmoil in the industry in terms of profit reductions, job cuts and disappearance of incumbent firms. Two big pieces of M&A activity in the last 30 days confirm my prediction - first the acquisition of SAB Miller by AB InBev and second is the news yesterday indicating the move by Walgreens Boots to swallow Rite Aid.

First, some context on the global beer industry consolidation. In 2003, Anheuser Busch had a 8.5% market share of the global beer market and the HHI of the industry was about 276 (Source: Euromonitor and Goldman Sachs, HHI standing for 'Herfindahl-Hirschman Index - HHI'
A commonly accepted measure of market concentration. It is calculated by squaring the market share of each firm competing in a market, and then summing the resulting numbers. The HHI number can range from close to zero to 10,000, higher the number indicating more concentration of the market). By 2013, AB already had a market share of 21% and the HHI of the Beer industry had increased to 725. Now with the AB Inbev acquisition of SAB Miller (the latter having a 8-9% share), one can easily predict that the HHI has increased above 1200. I predict that there is further consolidation in the offing before the industry reaches equilibrium. Next to be gobbled up - Carlsberg maybe ?

As the companies consolidate, I also predicted consolidation in the retail space. Needless to say, we had the 2nd and 3rd biggest pharmacy retailers - Walgreens Boots and Rite-Aid coming together to create further consolidation in the retail space. As per my calculations, in 2014 Walgreens had a 27% market share (considering only the Top 10 chains) of the RX pharmacy retail space in the U.S and Rite-Aid had roughly a 10% market share with the total HHI of the market at about 1800. After this combination, the HHI would go upto about 2300. The U.S competition commission considers a HHI of roughly 2500 to be the ideal number above which the market starts to become highly consolidated.

And I could give you even more examples from the packaged and branded coffee and food markets to highlight the consolidation trend.

What does this mean ? Expect further consolidation especially in the Supplier and Retailer space. The Media buying and Ad agency industry is ripe for further consolidation while the amazing growth of Amazon, Alibaba and other e-commerce sites has set the perfect background for a Tesco-Walmart or a Carrefour-Walmart combine. A Reckitt-Henkel or Colgate-SCJ consolidation maybe ?

Exciting times ahead !!

MY POST FROM JULY 30, 2013

About 6 years ago, I was having a heated debate with a group of colleagues from my former employer - Reckitt Benckiser. We were reacting to a report in the press that day concerning the possibility of Reckitt-Colgate Palmolive merger. My view on the FMCG landscape was the rule of 4. In the end (I mean as our lives approach infinity if ever there was a phrase like that !) every FMCG category would have the space for only 3 or 4 big players, 3 or 4 big suppliers and 3 or 4 big retailers. The Omnicom-Publicis merger is another example of this long term trend. So my prediction is that the end state would look like:

FMCG branded players
Food - Nestle, Unilever & Mondelez/Pepsi snacks combined (and 1 player from emerging markets), Danone/Kelloggs/General Mills combine maybe ?
Beverages - Pepsi, Coke and Nestle
Beer: SAB Miller, AB Inbev, Heineken and Tsingtao
Household products: P&G, Unilever, Colgate Palmolive-Reckitt combine, SCJ (possibly folding into Unilever)

Retailers - Amazon, E-Bay, Walmart and Carrefour

Agency Suppliers - WPP, OmnicomPublicis, IPG/Dentsu

Why do I say this ?
The FMCG industry is increasingly finding it difficult to sustain innovation (and will continue to do so) as technology improves the speed with which Private Label brands will copy innovation and bring down prices and margins. Further, retailers will continue to press smaller FMCG players to cut their margins and increase payment terms thus weeding out the smaller players from the market. This will in turn further increase the power of the retailers. Moreover the rapid rise of Amazon will force out many of the smaller retailers from the market.

The FMCG players will retaliate and to balance this power of the retailer, we will see more and more M&A as smaller and mid sized players will merge with each other or be taken over by the biggest players. Gillette being purchased by P&G and Mondelez acquiring Cadburys - all in the last 10 years bear testimony to my predictions.

Finally as FMCG players get bigger - they will demand better and cheaper services from their agencies. And hence to complete my theory - smaller agencies will no longer be able to deal financially with these requests and eventually fold up or seek to merge.

And as power shifts to agencies and FMCG players...what do you get - more consolidation within the retailer space and the merry go round goes on and on and on...

Simple theory or conspiracy theory....you decide.

'The Big Five by Five': Twenty years of Wisdom from the Consumer Goods Industry

2015-09-19T01:07:00.001-07:00

Welcome back to Omnikarma. Where photographers discuss marketing while Consumer Goods Professionals profess their faith for Arsene Wenger and Arsenal. Where predictions about the 2016 American election make polite conversation with strategic wine picking tips. Discussions about Global cuisine precede critiques on global leaders. And thank you for your support, comments and brickbats - the Omnikarma blog goes from strength to strength.

Today, we discuss one of my favorite Corporate topics - the methods and the madness involved in delivering outstanding business results. Since a marketer loves, lives and dies by jargon, I shall name this topic The Big Five by Five. (HBR, WSJ, FT and Forbes - please take note, you heard it here first). I summarize below this list of Five 'Must Have' processes and the Five 'Must Have' cultural DNA strands that you can learn from winning Consumer Goods businesses. All of these nuggets have been drawn from my experiences of the past twenty years at some of the best Consumer Goods companies in the world - Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser and Beiersdorf - not to forget my observations of Private Equity, competitors, agencies and suppliers in the Industry.

A bit of context might help set the tone for this blog today. As many of you may know, I have worked with teams across Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Europe and Latin America. As a member of work groups across these markets, I often encountered businesses or work situations that either needed serious 'reset'/'turnaround' or some businesses that needed 'More of the Same' i.e. do not spoil a winning formula. What was not very surprising was that the factors that determined success in most of these cases had similarities running across their centre folds. For instance, one business had missed its financial forecast six months in a row - as a result the General Manager & Sales Director were removed and a new team was installed to clean up the mess. In another situation, a team had delivered a record number of innovations into market with amazing success rate - and the new team had to replicate this success.
Blogger's little revelation: The original list was titled 'The Big Ten by Ten' and I eventually settled for the 'The Big Five by Five'.

'The Big Five by Five' list has been divided into two parts - First, I shall discuss the Five critical Processes or Systems and then I elaborate on the Five cultural traits or corporate behaviours that outstanding businesses possess/demonstrate.

1. A process of rigorous priority setting.
The best teams that I worked with set few, easy to understand, stretching and overarching priorities for the entire organization. Period. And it goes without saying - winning businesses have a clear understanding of 'No Go' areas. i.e. Which Opportunities and business challenges NOT to focus on or pursue. One successful firm that I worked with clearly articulated which product categories, geographies and retail channels that their company would/would not compete in using a tool called the 'Brand Web'. Teams that presented projects or innovations or expansion outside of the Brand Web usually got extreme 'ticking off' - to the extent that over time employees rarely dared to present non-priority projects at Board meetings. Importantly, the priorities were exactly the same for employees from all functions ensuring everyone was working towards common goals. However I also encountered some poorly managed situations. For example one company had to support more than 15 brands in a relatively small European market. As a Marketing Director, I struggled to invest time and money beyond the Top 5 brands in terms of turnover and profits. Still this company continued to launch innovations and produce TV films for more than 12 brands and insisted our market invested behind all these brands.

2. Processes that aid Intra functional, Inter functional and Client-Supplier alignment sessions.
Great teams communicate. They communicate hourly, daily, weekly...they communicate formally and informally. They communicate within functions, across functions and communicate regularly with suppliers like agencies and third party manufacturers. In one successful team that I was part of, the Advertising Agency let me use their London offices to conduct meetings with my own team members on my visits to the U.K. We became such great partners in the whole business growth process. One other leadership team I was part of used a 'Whatsapp' group to quickly share photographs, competitor news and even wish each other on special occasions. In fact one of the best processes that I observed at winning companies was the 'Monthly Marketing-Sales-Supply Chain' alignment meeting to agree on timings of launches, sales volume forecasts and timing of the start of advertising support. Rarely did this team fail in their in-market execution of new product launches. One ex-boss reminded me - 'In a matrix organization, the only advice I can offer you - err on the side of over communicating to everyone around you'.

3. Honest, regular and rigorous sales forecasting, usually led by the sales function but supported by the marketing and supply chain functions.
Given the external and internal environments within the Consumer Goods industry, accurate Financial forecasting and delivering against these forecasts are both complex but necessary tasks to achieve consistently over the long term. Needless to say - one of the primary inputs into a financial forecast is an accurate best estimate of future sales estimates. I have often encountered teams that relied on the Finance, Supply Chain or marketing team members to deliver the sales forecast. But Hey - we are talking about the sales forecast here. Who else should we turn to for accurate sales numbers - The Sales Guys and Gals, of course. I have often heard arguments from senior managers that 'Hey, I cannot trust the over optimistic sales guys to deliver a realistic forecast' or 'The Supply Chain guys have the best understanding of how much to order'.  We often forget that Sales forecasts in the consumer goods industry are usually a function of primary demand (how much of the company's product that consumers would buy) and secondary demand (how much a retailer would order in anticipation of primary demand). Given that in most companies, we realize our sales revenues from the secondary demand it is critical that the forward sales forecast is owned by the Sales managers - but with inputs on underlying trends/seasonality etc. using good forecasting tools and the impact of price changes/promotions/advertising/new product launches from the marketers (who in turn should work with the research colleagues to improve the quality of these inputs). In one subsidiary, the Sales Director was fired because he had missed the sales forecast by a factor of more than minus 10% for 6 months running. A new Sales Director was hired and he immediately trained his sales team to work on the forecasting tools, improve the forecast by adding multiple reality checks along the way and he even changed the sales incentive schemes to include sales forecast accuracy as one of the critical KPIs. The company's sales forecasts and subsequently financial forecast accuracy improved dramatically over the following months. I know that many of you from the industry may disagree with me on this point but I am highlighting what I have learnt across markets on this critical topic. i.e. - get the sales managers to own the sales forecast - not anyone else !

4. A mean 'Finance' team that constantly challenges the status quo.
One might imagine that Finance Directors (or FDs as they are fondly called in our industry) in Consumer Goods' firms are expected to focus on reporting, managing payments and receivables plus drive down costs in the system. In one Middle Eastern subsidiary of a large American multinational, the General manager and the FD were like inseparable twins. The FD and his team were given full freedom to challenge supply chain colleagues on high inventory levels, marketers on margin dilutive new products and sales managers on overdue receivables. Every consumer or trade promotion proposal was challenged on the sales forecast & profitability. While this created a culture of constant conflict, the financial performance of the subsidiary improved dramatically during the tenure of this FD. Key process interventions like installation of pre and post promotion analyses ensured marketers and sales folks focused on delivering strong ROI on promotions. Net Working Capital improved as a results of improved payables and reduction in inventories. So while traditional wisdom would ensure that the Marketers and Sales teams dominated decision making, the inclusion of a 'challenging' finance team ensured superior financial performance.

5. A systematic balance of financial delivery between Margins and Real money in the bank.
Between 2007 and 2014, I worked across four different European businesses - what one would define as the 'Dark era' for Consumer Goods companies struggling to find their bearings during the recession. The high consumer prices set prior to this period began to bite as Private Label competition, expansion of Hard Discounters (like Aldi and Lidl) and intense price wars between retailers (in the U.K, at least 1 out of 2 products sold across many categories in 2013 and 2014 was sold on price promotion) in started to take their toll on the revenues of the consumer goods companies. The smartest teams that navigated through these tough times did one thing very well. They made a choice between making decent/fair share sales and profits and NO/LOW Sales or profits. They worked with the teams to focus on 'high value' innovations and promotions that were attractive to the cash strapped shoppers and the promotion trigger happy retailers. And the worst teams continued to have constraints by passing on revenue generating opportunities that delivered sales BELOW their historic profit margins. Do the math: Would you rather have a hundred thousand Euros of revenues that delivered 40 per cent margins or Zero revenues that delivered 60 per cent margins ?

Next, we shall focus on the Cultural aspects one can learn from winning Consumer Goods companies .

1. A culture of setting and communicating business targets, VERY EARLY in the year.
This point might sound fairly simple. But very seldom practiced by many teams. Let me explain. One of the companies I worked for had (and still has) the rigor of sharing the annual performance targets on the first day of work in January after resumption of Christmas holidays. In fact the boss often greeted you on week 1 in January with your annual performance and bonus targets. And due to the intense performance driven culture of this firm, every employee could plan his annual operating plan almost from Day 1. Needless to say, this company is still a darling of the stock market with revenues, profits and its share price being some of the best in the Consumer Goods industry. On the other hand, one Country team that I worked with had not received their annual targets even by October of the Calendar year. The team members were extremely demotivated and lack of clarity remained across the company. And as you would have guessed, the annual performance evaluation was a complete shocker. Almost everyone in this subsidiary ended up getting an 'Average' rating (simply because the managers could not decide achievement vs. targets) for the year followed by heavy attrition of the top performers immediately after. So I would highly encourage teams to start working on the target setting in the previous year with a view to a sign-off before you head out for your Christmas break in end December.

2. No functional Silos.
Easily understood phrase but rarely practiced in the corporate world. After many years of Sales vs. Marketing vs. Supply Chain vs. Finance quarrels at a European subsidiary, a previous boss of mine decided to create cross functional category teams. Teams consisted of employees from different functions. He deliberately decided NOT to appoint a team leader in the early phase of this transformation. We were thoroughly surprised to observe the team dynamics and the subsequent results. Within a limited span of time, the team dynamics changed from inter functional conflicts to Top management vs. the team challenges (in a positive way). The cross functional teams began to support each other during presentations - to the extent that the entire team started attending Customer meetings - hitherto the Kingdom of the Key account managers. Team members even backed up for colleagues from outside their function that went on annual leave. Not surprisingly, the most experienced and engaging team members became the natural leaders of each team. Exceptional results followed and in one instance - we took the market leadership of a very big category from a well established market leader.

3. A team with a Passion for ambiguity BUT healthy dissatisfaction for the Status Quo.
You get two kinds of employees at big Multinational Consumer Goods companies - one that loves the structure/processes/systems/rules and the other that thrives on ambiguity. There is no doubt that you need both types of people for a team to succeed. But when it comes to business challenges (often encountered by Consumer Goods companies) like entering new categories or markets with limited information, managing turnarounds or difficult change management situations or when you play in categories with rapidly changing consumer needs or tastes (e.g. make-up) you need folks that can embrace ambiguity and create structure within the ambiguity. I call this skill 'navigating in a dark room with your eyes completely shut'. Here, the core value of one of my previous employers comes to my mind - 'A healthy dissatisfaction for the status quo'. One of the General Managers of a Middle Eastern subsidiary of a U.S Consumer Goods company kept reminding all marketers of the 'Just One more' Challenge. His view was that when a brand had a leadership market share, it was time for the 'Just one more challenge'. What if we could get every consumer using the brand to use the brand for one additional occasion. What if we could convince every consumer using the product to dose correctly. What if we could motivate our light users to become medium or heavy users. The list was endless and soon the managers under him started pushing for higher targets even on leader brands. A fine example of 'Healthy Dissatisfaction for the Status Quo' came to the surface when the detergent portfolio of the company (already enjoying a 75% market share with 3 brands) came under attack from a new German competitor. The motto of our General Manager was 'I do not lose even a 1% share' post the entry of the competitor. The team worked very hard and despite more than 18 months of relentless investments from the Germans, we continued to enjoy the 75% market share.

4. A Work Hard, Play Harder culture.
In Jeddah it was the Wednesday afternoon Mandi or Fuddruckers at Tahlia street with the rest of the ABMs. In Bombay (Now Mumbai), it was the Friday night out at Toto's Garage, Bandra. Amsterdam - borrel on Friday afternoons and Birmingham - G&Ts with the agency on Thursday evenings. One common thread ran across all these occasions - Play Hard after a long day at work ! Maybe the folks from Investment banks and Consulting Firms may have far more exotic tales to share but at Consumer Goods companies - great bosses always took their teams out after a hard day at the office. Maybe it is a good time to make that reservation for a Thursday evening out with the team (why Thursday - you may ask. One young Dutch Brand Manager once revealed this secret - "always go drinking with work colleagues on a Thursday night, then you have the hangover at office on Friday...go drinking on a Friday - your weekend is hell").

5. Not here to participate BUT to win.
My final nugget of wisdom actually came from a number of bosses from the Consumer Goods firms. We are not in the Olympics - where taking part is critical. Here, we are in a Dog eats Dog world. One wrong move and your competitor will eat your market share. So the advice is - if you want to retain your job and earn all those fast track promotions - play to win, not to participate.

That is about it. I hope you enjoyed this long read. Please do share your feedback. And see you soon on another Omnikarma blog.

My personal reflections on Decision Dilemmas at the Work Place

2015-05-19T06:26:00.001-07:00

Welcome back to Omnikarma and thank you for visiting my blog site. And if you are here for the first time, the banter is usually about football (mostly about Arsenal - clearly the best football club in the world), marketing, leadership and politics. In any case, please don't forget to leave your comments and valuable feedback using the link at the bottom of this post.

Today I will share my personal reflections and experiences with 'Dilemmas in Decision Making' i.e. when personal ethical and moral considerations clash with organizational guidelines while making important decisions at the work place. What triggered me to write this piece was a recent article in the Economist magazine. A little historic context. On October 12, 2002, two bomb blasts took place in Kuta, Indonesia within a minute of one another. The first one was inside the Paddy's Pub and the other at the opposite Sari Club (the latter being a car bomb detonated by a suicide bomber). In total, the two blasts killed more than 200 people and more than half of the victims were from Australia and Britain. After several years of investigation by the authorities, three of the Indonesian suspects were convicted for these crimes. And almost six years later - between November 8 and 9, 2008 these three Indonesians were executed by the firing squad. The then Australian Prime Minister John Howard indicated publicly that 'he will not oppose the death penalty when it involves terrorists'. “Some people say that I should be thumping the table and saying, ‘Don’t execute,” John Howard, the then prime minister, said at the time. “I’m not going to do that because I do respect the judicial processes of Indonesia.”

Fast forward a few years. Now we are in 2006. Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran, the co-ringleaders of the infamous 'Bali Nine' (the group arrested for trying to smuggle 8.3Kg of heroin from Indonesia to Australia) were convicted and were potentially facing execution by the Indonesian firing squad. The same John Howard, the Australian PM was quoted "The police are there to protect us from the ravages of drugs and I just hope that every young Australian who might in their wildest imagination think that they can get away with this will take a lesson from this" ..... "I feel desperately sorry for the parents of these people. I do. All of us as parents will feel that way, but the warnings have been there for decades".... "We are against the death penalty..... We will make, in an appropriate way, at the appropriate time, representations."

When I read this story for the first time, the question that immediately popped into my mind was "How could the leader of a Western nation have two different standards on exactly the same subject. Support the death penalty when foreign nationals were involved BUT oppose the same when his own countrymen were involved".

I tell the story above to exemplify one of the biggest challenges we face at our work places. Decision Dilemmas. Dilemmas brought forth to the surface due to a clash between Personal, Moral and Ethical considerations on one hand and Corporate, financial and regulatory considerations on the other. For example - should one let go of thousands of employees to save the company from bankruptcy (or sometime just to shore up the share price) ?. Should I recall a drug from the market when data suggests the product could pose a safety risk to a minority with heart ailments while providing increased life expectancy to millions ?

Frameworks are always good tools to help us with decision making. In order to put some structure to some of the decisions I have made in my career, I decided to do some digging around for a suitable framework on ethical decision making. One of the pieces of literature that caught my eye was a piece titled "Thinking Ethically: A Framework for Moral Decision Making" Developed by Manuel Velasquez, Claire Andre, Thomas Shanks, S.J., and Michael J. Meyer. According to the authors, Ethical Problem Solving requires the decision maker to answer some critical questions when trying to resolve a moral issue:

What benefits and what harms will each course of action produce, and which alternative will lead to the best overall consequences?

What moral rights do the affected parties have, and which course of action best respects those rights?

Which course of action treats everyone the same, except where there is a morally justifiable reason not to, and does not show favoritism or discrimination?

Which course of action advances the common good?

Let me share the real life story of Benjamin (the name and identity of the actual person has been masked to protect the privacy of the individual, but some of the readers may recognize who I am talking about). Benjamin - 24, had recently joined the company (I was Marketing Director of the company at that time) as a marketing intern out of the business school at the University of Amsterdam. In a short time, he had become one of the popular characters around the Dutch office. After a three month project in Shopper and Customer marketing, Benjamin decided that his career path was in Brand Marketing and decided to apply for a permanent position as Assistant Brand Manager. While he was being interviewed for a role in my marketing team, his previous boss (from Shopper and Customer Marketing) decided to leave the company. This meant Benjamin had no line manager during the time he was being interviewed for his permanent position. During this period, Benjamin was hospitalized and after multiple tests, he was diagnosed with having an advanced stage of cancer. Benjamin (and of course, his family/friends) and the entire organization received this horrendous piece of news with sorrow and shock.

When this case was presented to me, I was faced with one of the most difficult decision dilemmas of my career. Why? Benjamin did not have the personal or family financial resources to cover for his entire medical treatment and moreover he could get some of that cover for his treatment only if he was a permanent employee with our company. However the company had not officially provided Benjamin an official appointment letter and hence had the opportunity to protect itself from providing for significant amount of medical costs (albeit via the medical insurance provider). Personally I didn't have to manage Benjamin's situation since I was officially not his line manager.

With the benefit of hindsight, I believe the company and I used the framework above. And importantly, we tried to answer question No:1 above - of all the alternatives, which one would provide the best overall set of benefits over the downsides. Thinking back, we believe the alternate scenarios were:

a. Do not hire Benjamin as full time employee: Pros - Company is protected from any costs, we are legally in the right. Cons - Benjamin struggles to cover for his medical costs and not supporting Benjamin leads to poor morale among existing employees who would view our company as a 'heartless monster'.

b. Hire Benjamin as full time employee: Pros: Benjamin gets the much needed medical insurance at company cost and employees are happy. Cons - Company exposed to potentially unlimited medical expenses not covered by insurance plus no assurance that Benjamin would come back to work despite all these costs and time - meaning unused employee costs on payroll.

In balance we took a hybrid decision. i.e. extend Benjamin's temporary contract for about six months to ensure that he got the medical cover for a longer period while minimizing the financial exposure of the company plus the flexibility for the companyto review the decision six months down the line.

Other examples of Decision Dilemmas during my career were:

- Asking a female expatriate employee that recently got married (and had got her partner to give up his fantastic job in his home country and move in with her at her foreign location) to leave the company due to poor performance (action taken: changed the decision to spend even extra hours on coaching and performance feedback till family was better settled) .

- exiting large numbers of long time employees from the company to meet annual profit commitments (action taken: proceeded to exit the agreed number of employees based on fair and legally binding methods).

In summary, I would like to conclude by taking a position on the two situations described under the Indonesian capital punishment scenario. In general, I am against the idea of capital punishment. I am also of the opinion that no human being has the right to take away the life of another whatever maybe the case and importantly there is large body of evidence out there that capital punishment doesn't necessarily lead to dramatic reduction in crime. Therefore, in my opinion Prime Minister John Howard should have taken a similar stand of condemning capital punishment in both cases and more importantly using the power of his highest office and his ability to influence the Indonesian Government to move both decisions from capital punishment to something like life time imprisonment. Easily said than done, but ethically right for everyone involved.

I look forward to receiving your feedback on this topic. Thank you for taking time to read my little blog.

Superdads, Flying Pigs, Bond fantasies, Happiness opened, Viagra in your fuel tank and Chips on a plane !

2015-02-04T00:47:00.000-08:00

NOTE: THE VIEWS MENTIONED HERE ARE MY OWN. THEY DO NOT REPRESENT THE VIEWS OF CURRENT OR PREVIOUS EMPLOYERS.

Welcome back to Omnikarma. And if you are a newcomer here, I would like to remind you that the banter on my blog is usually about football (mostly about Arsenal and the World cup/UCL), marketing and advertising, World politics and occasionally leadership. If you are a Finance geek or do not like well produced advertising, now is a good time to sign out !!

In this blog, I will do much less writing but let the magic of Superbowl commercials do the talking and writing. I rarely watch American football (still not sure why the Yanks call the real football - Soccer) but look forward to the annual one hour review of Superbowl commercials - the real Vatican for the Ad Lovers of the world. I am sure you will agree with me that the overall quality of films has dramatically improved this year and hence it has been difficult to pick the best ones. Here are my top picks. The Toyota Camry film at the very end is my favorite (Hint: I am a Super Dad to a super daughter). Please don't forget to turn up the volume - because I promise you its going to be worth it.

To kick off the countdown, lets start with a beautifully shot film from Fiat cars. Simple story, well told in a nice Italian setting. Although I must admit that I see glimpses of Axe Deodorant advertising in here.

Next comes a brilliant film from my former employer P&G. A simple theme, great insights, a and beautifully shot. Brings a smile to your face. And for a change, very little mention of the product or brand. Well done Always !!

Third on my list is this amazing film from the Korean car makers (once again - did they make great cars ?). Kia scores another Superbowl hit - and continuing on their theme to use movie stars, this one has the ex Bond - Mr. Brosnan himself. If you are a male 40+ (and potentially the target audience for this film), you would certainly love this one even more !!

Now - how can we ever get through a Superbowl Top 10 Ads list without a great Cola ad. Coke's 'Happiness' campaign continues to dazzle. A brilliant theme (online bullying/negative messaging) that is relevant for our networked times. What I love most about this spot is the how the Ad Men have been able to incorporate the product into the film - you may say - 'Hey Coke pouring down your internet cables is kinda corny'. I just find it to be brilliant creativity.

Dorito's gets my top score for airing not one but TWO brilliant films. This snack brand has had a long running history of creating great films for the Superbowl - and this year is no different. It has the perfect recipe for a Superbowl half time film - In your face - humour, brand and a jackass hero at the core, beautifully shot - and certainly makes the viewer dash to the kitchen to pick up another pack of Dorito's. I love the last scene in the 'Middle Seat' film ..."do tell your Mom when she wakes up "...

And the second one from Doritos - when pigs fly !!

And finally the best film from the pack. A 'Super Dad' film from the folks at Camry, & Toyota. Let the film do the talking. Dads - take out your tissues !! Moms - start sniggering !!

Before I sign out, I am super keen to hear your comments and views and let me know whether I missed out any of the epic Superbowl films in my review. Till next time, Au Revoir.

Get your marketers to live and act in the 'NOW'

2014-11-16T21:21:00.002-08:00

Welcome (back) to Omnikarma - where you get to read about football, marketing, leadership or occasionally about life in general. My previous post 'Strategic Sweet Spots' received some overwhelming readership and feedback - thank you for all your comments, critiques and feedback.

Today, I will write about the importance of marketers to live in the NOW and some techniques to get you and your teams to live and breathe the NOW.

About two years ago I had started discussing this topic with a close friend, Mr. Marc Teerlink. Marc's son and my daughter Alexis went to the same school in Amsterdam. Marc, as some of you may know is one of the geniuses at IBM and one of the leading minds around the topic of Big Data. (you may want to watch his TEDex talk at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqbR4BhzPNM). Marc spoke to me about the cutting edge work that he and his firm were doing in the area of social listening and how they had 'Brand rooms' for big Consumer Goods companies in the US to watch real time trend developments in the 'sports drink market'. Brand managers and even senior leaders from his client firms were actively encouraged to spend their working day at the social media listening rooms and see how little bubbles of micro trends were popping up in remote parts of the world and then moving across the globe as more and more consumers got involved in the conversations. Then the brand would get involved in the conversation (at relevant times) to 'subtly' insert branded content into these conversations. This really fascinated me and although this happened light years ago (ahem, back in 2012) - I genuinely thought this was science fiction.

Fast forward two years on. Yesterday, I was speaking to a former colleague from an ex-employer and we discussed how she was progressing at work. From what she explained, it felt to me that all that she and her marketing team were doing over the last four months was focusing on analysis of the last twelve months and creating the 2015 financial plan. Her Brand Managers were spending twelve and fourteen hour days poring through 'BIG DATA' of the past year to create even more 'BIG DATA' for the next year. I couldn't help but compare and contrast the two situations - one company (the IBM client) using BIG DATA to live in the NOW and another - using BIG DATA of the past to create fictional BIG DATA of the future - and in my opinion both pieces of data will end up being useless to the end consumers.

Which brings me to the main point of this piece today - what kind of MARKETER are YOU ? What kind of MARKETING philosophy do you live and breathe. To evaluate whether you market in the NOW - take this simple test:

I spend most of my work week creating plans for my consumers TODAY - YES/NO
I spend some of my work week checking feedback from Facebook posts/Social media listening/product reviews of my brand/visiting my stores/checking feedback from my e-store - YES/NO
I encourage my team to go outside the office and meet real consumers every week - YES/NO
My team is USUALLY working on projects that consumers can experience TODAY or in the COMING FORTNIGHT - YES/NO

If you have answered YES to all 4 questions above, then you definitely are a NOW marketer. If you have scored fewer than 2 YES, then I suggest you continue reading.

Welcome to the new reality - Our world has changed since yesterday. And it certainly has changed since this morning. If your marketing is not keeping up to the NOW, then you and your brand will be a dinosaur by the end of today. To bring my point alive, let us look some relevant marketing topics trending around the world RIGHT NOW !.

1. Kim Kardashian has tried to break (down) the internet on Nov 12 by showing her assets on the Papermag.
http://www.papermag.com/2014/11/kim_kardashian.php And a whole bunch of brands responded to this trend (some even made fun of the BIG Kardashian), did yours ?

2. Alibaba (the biggest e-commerce site in China) posted single day (yes single day - Nov 11) sales of $9.3 Billion.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/alibaba-and-the-truth-behind-the-singles-day-sales-numbers-2014-11-16

Did your company or brand profit from any of that action ?

3. Amazon.com has probably cut the retail prices of your brand on their e-commerce site in the last hour.
http://www.zoolert.com/habitat/

Have other retailers selling your brand followed suit ? Is this impacting your bottom line ?

4. John Lewis, the British retailer released their Christmas ad on November 6 - featuring penguins (and the Youtube video had already garnered 15 Million viewsas I wrote this piece this morning).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iccscUFY860

If your brand is available at John Lewis, is your Brand Manager actively immersing your brand in the millions of 'penguin' conversations happening across the U.K (and probably outside as well) ?

You get it - right ?

In summary, in this world where our consumers are constantly being exposed to new messages every nano second - there is only way to be a nimble marketer. And that is to focus on the NOW. I encourage marketers around the world to spend even more time listening to consumers and reacting to their changing habits and aspirations in real time. Make sure that you and your teams are embracing technology to provide you and your company the tools to listen and act in real time. If you don't act NOW, then someone else is going to eat you for lunch - NOW !! Good luck with focusing your energies on marketing in the NOW.

And don't forget to send me your feedback - well of course - right NOW (and if you would like to follow my blog, do sign up) !!

Strategic sweet spots - heads I win, tails you lose

2014-10-13T12:18:00.000-07:00

Good morning all. Welcome back to Omnikarma. I have a short piece today on leadership - identifying, creating and winning using strategic sweet spots.

Before I go further, what do I mean by strategic sweet spots. Basically it is a strategic play in which a company or individual occupies a very distinct position from where most outcomes - positive or negative will usually end up with victory and profits for the player occupying the strategic sweet spot.

Let take another example - in the US, the Democratic Party's superior position of (perceived) positive support for Hispanic immigrants (Hispanic voters prefer Democrats to Republicans by a margin of 2-1). Why is this a strategic sweet spot - it hits the soft underbelly of the Republicans that are perceived to be Hispanic immigrant unfriendly. Given the demographic shift in the U.S where Hispanics will become about a third of the population shortly (currently about a fifth of US population is Latino), this is a win win for the Democrats. If the Republicans continue to oppose illegal aliens, they alienate the Hispanics even more helping the Democrats win even more support. If the Republicans support migration, then they play on a winning position already occupied by the Democrats (and potentially endanger alienating your core Republican voters that are less immigrant friendly). In fact, one political paper even indicates that friendly immigration policies can get Republicans to move out of immigrant strong neighbourhoods further eroding Republican voter bases.

Some other examples come to mind. Lets think of a simple game of tic tac toe. Often, you encounter situations (where a naive opponent has been caught napping) where any move by the opponent can be a losing position. See image below. A great strategic sweet spot for the person playing crosses - eh ?

Here is another one. In the last fortnight, there has been a brilliant manoeuvre in the Indian political space - by the BJP (those not following Indian politics - this is the ruling party in India, the Bharatiya Janata party and the political base of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi). Mr Shashi Tharoor (see picture below) - a popular and firebrand Member of the Indian Parliament but representing the main opposition Congress Party is invited on social media to join Mr. Modi's Clean India campaign. Why is this a strategic sweet spot ? If Mr. Tharoor does not accept Mr. Modi's invitation to be part of Clean India - then most voters would be aggravated and pressurise him to join the movement. If Mr.Tharoor says yes (which is what happened), his own party men are going to make him minced meat (which is what they did) - in both cases delivering a winning hand to the BJP.

So how could corporations or brands identify and occupy strategic sweet spots. In many cases, it almost calls for taking an opposing view of a competitor's strong point and identifying a weak spot to attack. I take the example of one of the brands I managed in my career. This is a toilet cleaner - in order not to offend my ex-employer - I shall just call it Brand X. Brand X is an acid cleaner and a relative newcomer in the European market place. The market is dominated by Brand Y that is a chlorine bleach. Now the exciting part. Chlorine bleaches are extremely good toilet cleaners but they work better on organic stains (basically pooh stains !!) and work by bleaching out the stain (almost like applying whitewash). Bleaches also kill germs well. But chlorine bleaches suffer from three fundamental weaknesses - One, they perform inferior to acid cleaners on limescale removal (limescale build up is usual in countries with hard water). Two, European consumers start to get picky on pouring bleaches down their water pipes. Three, they smell awful. Now what does our Brand X do....all it does is claim "5 times more powerful vs. chlorine bleach". So every time Brand Y says they are a bleach, consumers say - hey, I need Brand X that is 5 times better !!

I hope you enjoyed reading about strategic sweet spots and hopefully you should identify your strategic sweet spot in life and at work. And soon, it should be Heads you win, tails they lose. Happy to hear your comments and feedback !!

And then there were two (and why they are in Rio)

2014-07-12T12:06:00.000-07:00

Welcome back to Omnikarma.

First, a big thank you for all the comments, feedback and lively discussions. It is much appreciated. Watching, Writing and discussing football is one of my passions. However I am not a professional football writer and neither do I plan to become one. It is therefore utterly important that you let me know what you think - good and bad so I can get better for the next World Cup.

Second, thank you for your patience for having undergone 'football overdose' live from Brazil. The last 7 days in Brazil have certainly been my finest footballing hour - if ever there was a term like that.

Today, I will write my final version for World Cup 2014. And it is my take on why the Germans and the Argentinians are the last men standing in Rio.

Before I go there, I must take you back in time to 1998. Some of you that worked with me at P&G, India may remember that in June 1998 our Finance Director - Mr Derek Saul used to run the betting book for the corporate office team (all proceeds went to charity just in case you were wondering). He used to send out the daily odds by email and this was followed by a flurry of email exchanges on football, sport and life. Still recall BvP (Mr Bharat Patel) and Vijay
Santhanam, the Joshi brothers (Gireesh and Shireesh), Balaji Rumballs Ramanujam all contributing significantly to the football chatter. Some of you from that time may remember that I had written a piece about the need for 'familiarity' when a team plays WC football. Part of today's analysis will cover this topic in detail.

First let me lay out my conclusions about why Germany and Argentina have reached the finals. There are 6 key reasons in my opinion (and those from McKinsey - these 6 are not mutually exclusive, sorry I cannot hire expensive research analysts like you can).
1. Familiarity, 2. Squad depth, 3. Attacking prowess, 4. Luck, 5. Crucial tactical errors by coaches (and opposition taking advantage) in knockout stages and 6. Squad fitness. I must admit much of my analysis emanates from looking at the 4 semi finalists in detail (and much less so for first round losers).

1. Familiarity - the simple logic here is this. National players play much more for their clubs than they do for their country teams. Playing together is important especially when you are playing against specific strategic orders from the Coach. You will often notice this about central defenders and goal keepers. So all top teams like Chelsea, Man City, Bayern, Real Madrid have central defenders/goal keepers that have played together for ages. So if there is a mechanism to create familiarity between national team members - then the national squad plays better and is faster at adapting to the pressures of playing in a once in 4 years World Cup tournament. I have seen formal and informal mechanisms on how National Federations and Coaches create familiarity - a) pick squads from top 2-3 teams in the country (think FCB and Real Madrid for Spain in 2010, think Bayern Munich plus Dortmund for Germany b) play lots of friendlies or c) invest in the long term and create young squads that bond together. The current Belgian team is a great example of the latter option. Now listen to this - the current German team has 7 Bayern Munich players. What I even more fascinating is that 5 of the German players played together in the 2009 Under 21 European championship final and thrashed England 4-0 !!!

German under 21 squad from 2009

Talk about familiarity. The current Brazilian team comprise of people from 10 different clubs . Only the Dutch and Belgians come close. The Dutch have 6 from AFC and Feynoord while the entire Belgian squad have had familiarity as early as 2007 when 4 or 5 from the current senior team played upto the semi finals of the Under 20 European championship. I think England tried a stunt by picking up 6 players from Liverpool but they lacked attacking prowess.

2. Squad depth: I have taken the total experience of the top 11 players (in terms of minutes played in WC 2014). Germany 697 games > Argentina 556> Netherlands 510> Brazil 452. Funnily enough number of players with experience of > 100 Internationals (Germany 4>Netherlands 2>Argentina 1>Brazil 0). This played an important part in some critical games. Brazil did not have a back up for Thiago Silva or Neymar in that now infamous 7-1 game. Robin Van Persie had to be substituted by Huntelaar. I think only the French came close to the top 4 when it came to squad depth.

3. Attacking prowess: In my opinion, it would be short sighted to look at just the goals scored at this World Cup. I have taken the entire 2013-14 season and compared the top strikers across countries (in their respective leagues across Europe). E.g. Rooney goals scored in EPL, Messi - goals scored in the La Liga etc..

Argentina - Messi 28 + Aguero 17 + Higuain 17 + Palacio 17 - clearly the best attack in this tournament. For those that like stats (England - Sturbridge 21 + Rooney 17, Netherlands - RVP 12 + Robben 11, Brazil Neymar - 9 + Paulinho 15, France Giroud 17 + Benzema 17).

4. Luck: Needless to say, all teams that have moved into final four have had luck. Germans got lucky against France, US and enjoyed absence of Neymar/Thiago. Argentinians got lucky in the Semis (and that RVP had to be substituted resulting in Krul not getting a chance). Netherlands got lucky against Costa Rica and Mexico. Brazil got lucky against Colombia.

5. Crucial tactical errors: Let me mention two controversial ones. I don't know whether you noticed. The two guys who made all the difference for Germany vs. Brazil were two Bayern Munich players that let in all the goals for Brazil from the left. Dante and Luis Gustavo. Both these guys were terrible against their Bayern Munchen team mates who would have known all their weaknesses. As reported before, 4 out of the 6 goals came in from poor defending on the left from Brazil. Scolari should have realised this and made a switch early on in the game. And then the second - this time from Louis Van Gaal. Robin Van Persie was certainly not match fit and the Dutch were clearly playing a defensive game in the first half. So why did they need RVP up front - they could have waited for first half outcome and brought in RVP if needed. I was watching the game on the night in Sao Paolo and clearly RVP was no even at half his best. And to make things worse, LVG substituted Van Persie thus losing his chance to switch goal keepers for the penalty shoot out.

6. Related to some of the points above is my last one - Squad fitness. This relates to general fitness of total squad. Some stats:

Minutes played by top 11 players (NL 5621>Ger 5487>Arg 5425> Brazil 5109)
No: of players that played > 500 mins (Ger = Arg = 7, > NL 6, Brazil 4)

This is important especially related to point 1 given that during a World Cup, the key players need to play together and play much of the time and for this need you need a super fit squad).

Whew. That's it. I am not going to predict the winner. I think its a close call. Most factors indicate a German win. But luck and tactical moves matter. and of course the Argentinian attack.

Thank you once again for your support, don't forget to send your comments.

A million different options..what is yours?

2014-07-08T09:30:00.000-07:00

We are not talking of the football (yet).

Today we start with the historic Mercado municipale in central Sao Paolo where I am made to wait 45 minutes in a very tightly controlled queue. No, this is not to watch a football match. This is to get into a Brazilian landmark - the Hocca. One of the most famous Brazilian eateries. Later, the nice lady in black gets me a nice corner seat. Needless to say - I order a Caipirinha. There are 4 options - info with the Cachaca option. The menu has a million mouthwatering options. But the local sitting next to me says - stick with the tried and tested. I order a Bacalhau (a nice puff pastry stuffed with lots of greatness) and Belissima (our rich mortadella slices melted cheese dried tomato and oregano). The caipirinha and food comes much more faster than it took to stand in the queue. Folks - one little advice - if you ever come to São Paulo, take the first cab to Mercado Municipale and to Hocca. That's all I will say - safe choice.

Meanwhile on the streets - there are a million options.

First the bookies. The Germans are slightly ahead with 11-2 while Brazil is at 6-1.

The guy at the concierge. Brazeeellllll 3-0.

My cab driver - brazeeell 2-1 in extra time.

The nice lady at the gift shop downstairs - Brazeeeeel 1-0 in full time.

The guy serving me Caipirinha - Brazeeeeeeel ....Hulk to score twice. Hmmm

The guy sitting next to me at Vila Madalena (where I will be watching the game) - hmmmmm. I think Brazeeell will win 2-0. David Luiz is going to be key.

My German friend via text. Germany 1-0. Manuel Neur to be man of match.

The sports commentator on CNN - undecided.

Me (thinking to myself) - 1-0, 2-1, 0-0, 2-0 and 1-1 account for roughly 50% of all results in football games. So what do I choose?

You tell me !!!

Fingers crossed - may the best team win !

PS - Sergio Aguero back for Argentina makes them clear favorites. I will be there for that game.

Mil gols mil gols, Brazilian hospitality, Dutch tactics....

2014-07-06T04:25:00.000-07:00

Welcome back to Omnikarma. Today the blog comes from beautiful Salvador where I am enjoying some wonderful Brazilian coffee. Football fans of all nationalities are strolling in for the breakfast buffet after a very late night of extra time football.

I am trying hard to capture the most amazing aspect of last night's game. There are a million options. But the one that takes the cake is the one below.

Just before full time whistle, the crowd (predominantly Brazilian, and for my friends that love stats - official attendance was 51179) started chanting...

MIL GOLS, MIL GOLS, SÓ PELÉ, SÓ PELÉ...MARADONA CHEIRADOR.

I joined in the chorus without knowing the history. Then this really friendly guy standing next to me explained. It stands for the 1000 goals that Pele scored... and since the Brazilians love their Argentinian neighbours (!!), they then rub it in by singing Maradona is smelling (to remind everyone of his love for snorting coke). Remember he almost died because of his drug habit. Looks like someone else who was at the game even put it up on YouTube.

Mil Gols Mil Gols

Now more about last night's game.

Landed at the hotel in Salvador after clinging on to dear life on the cab ride. My 62 year old driver certainly thinks he is Senna's grand dad. Me thinks he is plain nuts. Later, the guy at reception consoles me by saying "the drivers in Rio drive the tourist buses like they are Ayerton Sennas..."

Note to self: Ensure self drive rent a car in Rio...(or for that matter anywhere in Brazil)

Back to the story. 1 PM local time and the Argentina - Belgium game has kicked off. 8 minutes later and my dark horses Belgium are knocked out by that brilliant Higuain goal. A gentle reminder to Arlene Wenger what he misses by not buying this guy for arsenal. I head out of the hotel with about 10 minutes before full time. The wonderful person at the concierge reminds me that the best way to get to the stadium is using the special S2 to the Arena Fonta Nova. I pause here to make a little observation. The S2 is to leave at 1500 hours. Now the big fat Argentinian guy starts waving to his friends outside to hurry up. His two friends run back into the hotel while the driver holds up the bus (much to the amusement of everyone around). 2 minutes later, friends are now dressed in Brazilian jerseys, run across the road and climb into the bus. Cheers all around and we are off. The little note is actually those who love Swiss, singaporean and North European efficiency - this little bit of human kindness and bonhomie goes into the dustbin if we blindly follow efficiency. I guess it pretty much explains why we don't see too many smiles on a Singaporean MRT train - eh !!

The Arena Fonta Neva rises above the small tin and tile roofed houses in the background. A beautiful man made lake welcomes visitors. Clearly we can see more Costa Ricans and Dutch folks as the huge mass of humanity heads towards the entrance. Volunteers and World Cup guides in striking Blue and Green jerseys litter the streets. There is a massive military/police presence on the streets. The organisers have left nothing to chance. There are large numbers of locals peddling Brahma and Coca Cola. Face painters are busy painting Dutch and Costa Rican flags on to faces. I decide to get a Dutch tri colour on my cheeks. Four guys ahead of me (from Bombay) have negotiated a good rate... and I go with the flow.

Just before kick off, one thing strikes me. Van Persie, Robben and Sneijder have moved away from the rest of their team mates - Class divide me thinks !!

I won't say much about the game except that a) the Dutch were far superior, b) Robben is even faster than I have seen him play (on TV) and c) the Krul substitution was thought well ahead of the game and not a tactical masterpiece as reported in some parts of the press (in fact, Van Gail has publicly stated this in the press conference).

There was all the traditional Mexican waves, Brahma beer, popcorn (yes - the official snack inside the stadium). But what really stood out on a beautiful evening was "Mil Gols ..."

I would pay (again) a king's ransom to travel a million miles and watch my first World Cup game at a stadium where there the Brazilians outnumbered everyone else 10-1...the Dutch ran away rightful winners and I made tens of friends that taught me how to sing "Mil Gols. ...."

What do you pack for a once in a lifetime piligrimage to the Bethlehem of football

2014-07-02T15:59:00.004-07:00

Hmmm. Nice question but difficult to answer.

But first some background.

When FIFA opened up the world cup ticket lottery in 2013, I was one of the first to register my interest. I had to sign up to the FIFA website, register my interest for the various games (almost 9 months in advance) very well with the knowledge that I did not know which teams had qualified. So it was a safe bet to register for the Quarters, Semis and Finals. Round One matches were a strict no-no.

Round one results - no tickets..... Damn..

Back to square one. Register interest again in Round 2.

Round two results - no tickets - Damn...

And then came the news of our transfer to Dubai.

Interview with new boss.

New potential boss: "So Neil, how do you feel?"

Me: "Great..."

New potential boss (Belgian national and football mad fan): "So can you start July 1"

Me (face crestfallen): "Of course..... but ...but...."

Boss: "Tell me..tell me"

Me (hesitantly): "I have one request. I can start July 1...but need holidays from July 4"..

Boss (now doubting my candidature): "Why?"

Me: " I plan to be in Brazil for the World Cup... and guess what.... Belgium are my dark horses"

Boss (eyes lighting up): " That's fine.... especially given that Belgium will make it to the Semis"...

We have a nice laugh, shake hands... and deal done.

Later in March... the wonderful folks at FIFA send me the much anticipated email with the news. I have tickets for the Quarter Finals at Salvador (Huh... where is Salvador) and semi finals at Sao Paulo... Hurray !!!

Which brings me fast forward to today - July 3...on the day prior to my trip... what do I pack ...

For starters - tickets !!! Tick.

Not to forget... Brazilian visa..you remember the story of the 18 euro refund...tick

Brazil, Germany and Belgium jerseys...(remember to pick up from airport)....

Camera, sun screen, light clothing.... tick tick tick....

Reminder that 8 current and ex Arsenal players are still in the Quarter Finals (Van Persie, Ozil, Vermalen, Koscielny, Podolski, Metersacker, Sagna, Giroud)...tick...

Memorise the odds available on Belgium to reach semis (a few weeks ago...)...7-2...Tick...

Bra....Zeeellllllllll...Here I come !!!

So watch this space for more photos, news from Salvador... and more..

And before I sign off, what can we expect...

The France Germany and Belgium Argentina too close to call. I think Brazil and the Dutch will go through. If the Red Devils (Belgians) play like they did all tournament, the Argentinians are in trouble. I think the France Germany game will go into penalties and Germany nicking it 4-3.

Thanks for being part of Omnikarma.....

The 18 euro refund, the Samba farewell party and the Dutch playing strategy

2014-06-28T01:29:00.000-07:00

The real World Cup starts today when the knockout games commence with the hosts playing Chile. More about the game in a second.

I must admit that the Brazilians are true football hosts. Picture this:

Me at Brazilian embassy, Rotterdam (a week ago): "So, now that I have submitted my application, can I please have my visa in the 5 days you mention on your website ?. I need to travel to (Beirut &) Dubai prior to my trip to Sao Paulo."

Nice Brazilian lady at the counter (smiling): "Let me see what I can do. We are very busy at the moment...so my Consular General may frown...but leave it with me...you come on the 27th to collect".

Me (with the limited Portugese vocabulary, trying to sound like Fred,Hulk, Neymar etc..): "Mucho Brigaaada...senhora"

A week later (yesterday) - me at the embassy counter again (passing the slip V2135...V standing for Visas obviously !!): "So I have come to collect my visa.., any luck"

A different Senhora this time, but still smiling: "I have two pieces of good news for you"

Me (thinking - hey she is taking me out for dinner): "Tell me ..tell me.."

Senhora: Handing me a white packet. "This contains the 18 Euros you paid us...for World Cup visa, no fees"...

Me: "Wow, this go to be my day".

Senhora: "and then we have your visa for 90 days..enjoy our beautiful country and the football".

Me: "Viva la Brazil !!" (much to the amusement of the 20 odd Brazilians sitting around for their passports..Mucho Brigada Senhora....

and she smiles back...

And from behind the glass counter ...Senhora number 1 (from a week ago) waves back at me...

And I shout out again..."Viva La Brazil"...

On my way out, the security guy stops me. "So what games will you watch when you are in Brazil ?"

I say: "Quarter finals at Salvador and Semi finals at Sao Paulo"

Security guard: "So who will win - Brazil or Netherlands ?"

Me: "Really can't say, but must admit Van Gaal is getting his team selection and tactics right so far"

Him: "Why"

Me: "Lets take the attacks - all 10 goals have been scored from open play....not a single team can boast of that record. Van Persie and Robben have been brilliant - needless to say. Van Gaal has also kept up the energy of his team till the very end. In the scorching heat and humidity of the Brazilian venues, European teams will burn energy like a rocket in phase 1 of launch...6 out of the 10 goals have been scored in the last 30 minutes. More importantly the Dutch attack has been on target. Attempt rate has bene 80% which is better than the French or the Brazilians...and finally I think Van Gaal has been right by picking three Feynoord defenders (one of them, Ron Vlaar now with Aston Villa) -all of them 190 cms and above, have played together for years..."

Security guard: "escute meu amigo, all this is nonsense....Neymar will keep all the tall Dutchies looking at space while he scores with his back heel...Vaan Gaal or your Indian Chana Dal....remember - you need to outscore the Brazilians to win...".

I quickly say goodbye and run.....

and before I sign off, some nice pictures from the lovely Samba party that the Dutch team threw at my farewell....

Why it is getting hot out there....

2014-06-23T07:52:00.002-07:00

Its gonna be a short blog today....

We all have seen the WC so far.

Spain and England - Out !!

Uruguay and Portugal - Less said the better. More good looks, tight fitting jerseys and beefcake than good football.

Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Italy - yet to take off in full flight.

Netherlands, Chile, Colombia, US and France - super impressive.

Belgium - Hmm..hope they get better.

Ghana - truly sad they lost to the US..Hope they win against Portugal.

The odds offered by the bookies pretty much tell the story of this World Cup...too difficult to call the 4th semi finalist. Brazil, Argentina and Germany seem all set (at least by popular demand). I would fancy a punt on Chile, France or Belgium to reach the Semis.

This is what William Hill says...

To Reach the Semi Finals: 4/7 Argentina, 8/11 Brazil , 4/5 Germany, 13/8 Holland, 7/4 France, 11/4 Belgium, 3/1 Chile, 4/1 Colombia, 5/1 Italy, 6/1 Ivory Coast, 7/1 Costa Rica, 8/1 Croatia, 8/1 Mexico 9/1 Uruguay

And for a super analytical tool...see attached link.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

Enjoy the Netherlands - Chile game tonight !!

I am off to Buy Manchester United and Ladbrokes shares

2014-06-14T12:50:00.002-07:00

Saturday morning...

Me at my local newspaper stand (big lottery/betting place as well) this morning: "So Mr. Peters, how was the game last night"

Mr Peters: "What can I say, the whole country will be talking and talking today. Van Persie's goal was special. But 5-1. Even God above could not see that coming"

Me (in my mind): Hmmm... indeed. With 67% of you officially atheist, what can one expect...

Me (back with volume turned up): "so, how is the football betting going?"

Mr. Peters: "Oh my God... we only had bets on 1-1 or 1-0 in Netherlands's favour. I believe there was not one person that bought a 5-1 bet slip last night. It ha been a great day for Dutch football and the bookies. For that matter, any rookie bookie made tons of guilders last night. Thank you Mr. Van Gaal".

Me: "Van Gaal... you must thank Van Persie"...

Mr. Peters: "Do you know anything about football, my dear Indian friend".

Me: "Hmmm, I write a football blog..."

Mr. Peters: "Blog or Frog.... Van Gaal got his tactics right last night. Let me explain..." and he proceeded to open his little I-pad mini and opened the FIFA website (see below)

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/matches/round=255931/match=300186510/statistics.html

Mr. Peters: "Our coach got three things right. One: we never let the Spanish midfield get into a rhythm. Two: we played in our half and waited for the counter attacks with long balls. Three: We knew the Spaniards would push up and leave gaps at the back. I suggest we look at the heat maps in the Castrol statistics.If I change the player to Ramos or Alonso, see how much they were pushing into midfield. Contrast that versus the Dutch. We played deep and never gave space. Even Sneijder, Robben and Van Persie played deep in our half".

Me: "Nice site....I love the heat maps"

Mr. Peters: "Now ..next lets look at the passes.... Spain had 674 passes to only 423 for the Dutch. But that hides the real truth. Spain did their tiki tika style and had only 58 out of their 674 passes long. Guess what. The Dutch had 95 passes out of 423 long. That is more than 20% of total passes. Which means that when the Spanish defense played forward, they were caught out by the counter attacks and long passes. You will remember that Blinds's long pass from the centre ended up in the Superman goal from Van Persia... and Ramos and Alonso were nowhere close"..

Note: Stats from FIFA:
Spain: 674 passes, 229 short, 387 medium and 58 long.
Netherlands: 423 passes. 90 short. 238 medium. 95 long.

Me: "I am beginning to like this Castrol website at FIFA".

Mr. Peters: "and then two other points to note. The entire team never gave a chance to the Spanish midfield. Xavi and Iniesta were onlookers yesterday. And importantly the Spanish striker Diego Costa was too slow. His top speed was 6.94 Kmh and had 2 shots at goal while our star Van Persie had 4 shots and his top speed was 8.01 kmh."

Me: "you are statistics central, Mr Peters. I am impressed".

Mr Peters: "Mr George... impressed with Van Gaal. But then you will not like the fact that Van Gaal is joining your rival club Manchester united as coach after the world Cup."

Me: "I know... but we Gunners have Wenger..."

Mr Peters: "Wenger, Pellegrini or Mourinho.....Van Gaal is going to get Manchester United to winning ways. Listen, I got to go now. That will be 4,30 for your FT weekend newspaper"

Me: "Thank you Mr. Peters. And guess what based on what you said, I am off to buy Ladbrokes and Manchester United shares. Fijn weekend Meneer"...

The 6 Round 1/2 matches that you must not miss this year's WC

2014-06-07T02:56:00.000-07:00

7 days to go (my QF tickets have arrived from FIFA – woohooo !!)

7 hot contenders – (4 of them super smoking hot – Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain) England, Netherlands and Belgium bringing up the rear.William Hill odds below;

To Reach the Semi Finals
5/6 Brazil	10/11 Argentina	6/5 Germany
6/4 Spain	3/1 Belgium	7/2 Colombia
7/2 France	7/2 Holland	7/2 Portugal
4/1 Italy	4/1 Uruguay	5/1 England

And the theme of my little blog today – 6 games you should not miss in Round 1 and 2 (and needless to say, please don’t miss ANY games after Round 1).

As always – I will continue to provide you glimpses of what the bookies are upto (and if you haven’t been following my previous football pieces, bookies usually get it right !). But 6 of these matches below will define whether the bookies will make tons of moolah in 2014.

So if you had only 10 hours to watch World Cup games in June and early July.... which ones should you prioritize. Here is my list of Top 6:

Not to miss Match 1. June 28. Game 49 of the World cup. Brazil continues to be top title contender at 3/1 but hey – watchout, on June 28 they are most likely to play the Dutch and things could go horribly wrong for the home country if Robben, Sjneider and Robben collectively click on the day. Off the pitch, this match will also pitch two of football’s greatest managers – Scolari vs. Van Gaal. Back in 2012, I got to shake hands with the latter (on an escalator at the Ajax Arena in Amsterdam) - his overpowering wife gave me the looks !!! While Scolari carries the burden of the host nation (anything less than the trophy and he is minced meat), Van Gaal is on nice win-win territory. Having already announced his resignation as national coach ahead of the World Cup, he has been signed by the Glazers to lead Manchester United from the 2014-15 season. I would call 2-1 to the Brazilians, but remember my forecast accuracy at major tournaments has been poor (although dramatically improving in the last two versions).

Not to miss Match 2. July 1. Game 56. Venue Salvador. I arrive at this venue 4 days later to pick up the pieces; so readers can expect a first hand report and photographs from yours truly. Match most likely to be between my dark horse pick of the Cup – Belgium vs. the ladies’ favourite – Portugal. First some background. I have mentioned Belgium as a dark horse to this tournament since 2010. But the common reaction to my statement – Belgium, Why? Here is why. Belgium has a squad comprising some of the most exciting young players of the decade – Vincent Kompany is central defender and captain of Manchester City. Clearly the top defender in the English Premier League for the last two years. Thomas Vermalen is the other central defender. Captain of Arsenal and with Kompany could easily be the top central defender combination at the Cup this year. And to further bolster defences, Thibaut Courtois is the goal keeper. Readers will remember he was the Athletico Madrid’s brilliant keeper during the club’s La Liga and Champions League campaigns of this year. Further, nobody needs introduction to Eden Hazard, Chelsea’s attacking playmaker. On his day, he could rip any opposing defense to shreds. The rest of the squad includes Lukaku and Benteke upfront, Vertonghen, Dembele, Fellaini (all stars in the EPL) ..And most importantly this group of players has been playing together since 2005. Portugal on the other hand have come through after that brilliant see-saw double game against Sweden where Ronaldo clearly came one up against Slatan Ibrahmovic. Don’t miss this game, it has all the trappings of a cliff hanger. My prediction – 2-2 in full time, Belgium to win in extra time or penalties.

Not to miss Match 3. June 14. England vs. Italy. The less said about this game the better. Saturday night football does not get any better. In my opinion, the winner of this game will top the group. The Azzurri, in true defensive style would be looking for a 0-0 opener to their campaign. Both teams have enough testosterone in their ranks to produce at least 4 red cards. The game will be decided by the performance of the impressive English midfield and their ability to break the Catenaccio defense headed by Pirlo. Too close to call, 1-0 for England would be a decent punt.

Not to miss Match 4. June 13. Spain vs. Netherlands. Mmmmm !!! Mouthwatering stuff. Salvador play host to another potential thriller. A repeat of the 2010 finals. You know the characters. You know their styles. So I will shut up. 2-2, most likely. 2-1 or 3-2 for a Spanish win. Suggest you don’t bet against that. Drama to watch out for while you sip your Sangrias or Heineken – Robben’s tight fitlting jersey and dophin styled dives (he could easily have won the Olympics diving event against Greg Louganis),Van Persie’s left foot, Iniesta and Xavi weaving magical moves around the Dutch defense. Loser most likely to meet Brazil in Round 2. So both teams will go for a win.

Not to miss match 5. June 16. Germany vs. Portugal. The venue – Yes, Salvador once again. The Germans once again start as favorites. Like the Belgians, Germany come to this world cup with an amazing crop of young players. Tony Kroos (soon moving to Man U), Philip Lahm, Manuel Neur, Metersacker + Ozil (both from Arsenal). And one piece of trivia – the German coach Jochim Loewe is the brand ambassador for Nivea Men (so you know where my allegiances lie). Historically the Germans have always started World Cup campaigns in style. Don’t expect anything different. 2-0 to the Germans most likely. 3-1 a distinct possibility.

And finally Not to miss Match 6. June 19. Sao Paulo. England vs. Uruguay. This is going to be a must win match for England. But will they be caught short ? Uruguay are last world Cup's semi finalists and have the deadly attacking trio of Luis Suarez (Liverpool), Edinson Cavani (Paris St Germain) and Diego Forlan (Cerezo Osaka). Will the English defence hold up to the attacks. 2-1 to Uruguay is not impossible but expect Stevie G and company to rise to the occasion.

Happy to receive your comments... Salvador, here come the matches !!!

Bookies provide the backing vocals to the Samba band's curtain raiser

2014-05-23T07:08:00.006-07:00

Welcome back to Omnikarma. First, some basic health warnings:

For the next 45 days, this blog will focus only on football, mostly the World Cup variety. If you prefer to read about George Clooney or Spa holidays, then now is a good time to switch to Google search.
Only twice in the last 28 years, have I got my predictions right. So please don't sue me if you place high stakes based on my amateur opinions.
I am not a betting man, but love to follow betting sites to improve accuracy of my predictions. So current or future employers should not get too concerned with strong references to William Hill or Skybet.
And finally, football falls somewhere between my top priorities - family, Belgian beer, biryani, photography, marketing and wine tours. You decide where football falls in the pecking order.
If you erase me of your Facebook friend list, I will not mind (neither will I notice). :)

And my footy friends, our time has come !! (Balaji Ramanujam, Ranjit Warrier, Faye Michael, Natasha Didee, Frederic Weber, Mathew Jacob, Ramesh Macca Babu, Subodh Balakrishnan, George Abraham, Nikhil Sebastian, Amit Walinjkar, Shireesh Joshi, Manoj Menon.....). The 30 day spectacle that comes once every 4 years around the corner. I hope you have taken your annual vacations to watch this special spectacle.

And to people who don't know me very well - A little bit of history about my footy fetish - (Vijay Santhanam - you can partly vouch for this). I started watching World Cup football in 1986. Collectively, I think I have watched more than 50% of those World Cup games - mostly on TV. Each World Cup, I support (and quite boldly make a prediction) one team that I think may win the trophy. But as mentioned previously, I have got it right only twice - 1990 (Germany) and 2010 (Spain). Despite this terrible losing streak, the one that hurt me the most was the 1986 version. My favourite team - the Germans had a fantastic streak making it to the finals against Maradona's (Hand of God) Argentina. I was in 9th grade and the rest of my class was firmly behind the South Americans (especially given the fantastic Maradona). Even the rest of my football fanatic family was behind Argentina. After a thrilling 2-2 going into the 82nd minute, Jorge Burruchaga scored from a fine pass from who else - Maradona. You can relive the magic on the link below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZrdMQKo4Zw

I walked into school the next day, sleepy eyed and I can still remember being booed by my entire class. Oh ! how can one forget that day. The wonderful feeling of being on the right side of 'Bragging rights' - oh what a sweet feeling ! - certainly not on that summer morning in 1986.

The years have gone by. But the excitement of the month before World Cup is always a special one. But this year it is going to be different. I will be in Brazil from July 4-10 and will be in the stadia to watch two special games - the QF on July 5 at Salvador and SF on July 9 in Sao Paulo. So expect some special on the ground coverage from Yours Truly.

So who will win the World Cup. Which player (s) will have the distinction of the treble (WC, Champions League and Domestic League winner).

For one, it is going to be one helluva close contest. The bookies are confused as well. Brazil is odds on favourite to lift the trophy on June 13. Spain, Argentina and Germany close behind. My prediction is a Brazil Germany final, although would prefer a Brazil Argentina clash at the Maracena. But as always, I will be supporting 2 other teams - England and Belgium (the latter along with Uruguay being the dark horses). If you like betting, then highly recommend a wager on Belgium, Portugal, England, Uruguay or France reaching the Semis.... odds below :)

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/5335765/World-Cup-2014---To-Reach-the-Semi-Finals.html

And who might win the treble - Diego Costa and David Villa maybe?

Coming next on this channel: The 5 critical games and How to bet your way to Rio

Leadership of execution, execution of leadership

2014-01-05T21:39:00.004-08:00

DISCLAIMER: VIEWS PUBLISHED BELOW ARE MY OWN AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE VIEWS OF CURRENT OR FORMER EMPLOYERS.

2013 is history, 2014 is here. Happy New year friends. I have been wanting to share some experiences and observations on leadership and execution from the year gone by. While study of leadership and execution is fascinating, I believe that the more we learn and the more we share, we get better at both of them collectively. So here is my little contribution to the kitty.

Getting it done. Perfectly. Day after day, month after month. Very few get it right. Ditto for leadership. Practised to perfection only by a very few.

Some reflections on the Leadership of Execution:
Excellence in execution often accompanies leaders that have clarity around prioritising and sequencing of activities. A simplistic principle at first sight, but I believe this works every time. Importantly - for leadership of execution, saying NO and being critical is often as equally important as agreement, alignment and support of team members. Knowing when to start execution and when to move on after completion also help. Which partly means that getting to 85% delivery may actually deliver better returns than trying to get to 100% (probably because the original assumptions at start of execution often change due to the dynamics of the industry or other internal/external factors and new information may alter strategy and hence the deliverables of execution).

And a little reminder - having the best people in every role in the team builds trust and when team members trust each other, it helps resource optimal execution consistently. But even when you have the best people working in central and local roles - if the company culture does not build or foster trust, then execution suffers. Constant follow-ups, updates and meetings destroy executional momentum and reduces motivation of those people managing execution.

And how can I forget my favorite ingredient for perfect execution. Leaders who have a stomach for ambiguity. The perfectionists and the systems experts want the perfect road to be defined from Point A to Point B, RACIs etched in stone and deadlines signed in blood !! Often this means they (ones with penchant for clarity) would create paralysis to the network if resources, KPIs and end points are not defined. And many a time, this results in poor speed to market and frustration (not to forget scanners in the works !!). Leadership of execution often means putting imaginary stakes in the ground, making sound and often data deficient assumptions and motivating teams to move forward in the darkness. Teams working on new product launches and new to world ideas - please take note.

And a short note on Execution of Leadership. Six people caught my fancy this year:

His Holiness - the Pope Francis, the Australian Ashes team leadership (Darren Lehmann, Pat Howard and Michael Clarke) and of course Arvind Kejriwal and Arsene Wenger.

Enough has been written about His Holiness the Pope Francis and Arvind Kejriwal. What truly stood out as a common factor in both their styles was 'Inclusive decision making'. Moreover, both leaders took on leadership roles of organizations (Catholic Church and Delhi Government respectively) - both that had a history of nepotism, corruption, high handedness and pandering the elite few. Both won electoral victories over more powerful candidates in extremely difficult circumstances. And early work from both of them indicate people are flocking back to participation in their leadership in droves. Try this - Tourism to the Vatican as seen a big revival. Delhi had one of the highest voter turnouts (66%) in history !!

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2014/01/02/pope-francis-lured-66-million-to-vatican-in-2013-more-than-twice-as-benedict/

Team Australia made a huge revival to win the Ashes 5-0 (after being in the dumps in early 2013).
Besides the obvious ones - M Clake and D Lehmann - one other person who made a big
difference to the fortunes was 40 year old Pat Howard - the Chief Performance Officer for

Cricket Australia. From sacking of Mickey Arthur to appointing D Lehmann to standing by his people, Pat demonstrated outstanding leadership.

And of course, how can my blog be devoid of any reference to football or Arsenal ? Most of the
Arsenal faithful (including yours truly) from Highbury to Holland Road had written off Mr Wenger
when Arsenal lost the opening EPL game to Villa. However two important master strokes from
the Frenchman have been instrumental in the Gunners being on top of the League mid-season
(and if we we had a system to crown the team that won the most points in 2013 - Arsenal would
be champions in 2013). - strengthening the defence and retaining all key players - both identified
as key weaknesses in previous years. Just reminds all leaders that our strengths could be
greatly amplified if one could spend some time improve on our weak spots.

So here is wishing everyone fantastic leadership in execution and execution of leadership
in 2014.