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Line in the Sand

Online Stock Trading — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 13:27:23 +0000

Futures are trading down this morning, and will probably drop below the major support line. I’ll look to short aggressively if that last pivot low fails.

SRS 20 and 50 dma’s are about to cross here.

TZA – Same scenario. I’m focused on the inverse short ETFs today.

July Crossroads

Online Stock Trading — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 20:36:06 +0000

The major indexes SPX, INDU, and RUT have all turned down on monthly charts, with the Nasdaq following suit today.

SPX is at major support here, and has to make a decision on direction. I went cash until it does.

OIH is also at a major crossroads here. What to do… What to do. With the turn down in monthly charts, you have to be ready for that to be a fake out. You also have to trade with the trend, which is down. If we move uinder 880 SPX, and stay there more than two closes, 810 could be possible. I think we’ll see a quick snap back over 885 if this is a fakeout down.

OIH Targets 75

Online Stock Trading — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 23:23:05 +0000

Hope you’re enjoying/or enjoyed this Independence Day weekend.

Oil sector stocks lost enough significant support Thursday, to target a price of 75 in the future for OIH. A head and shoulders pattern from 95-115 equals a measured move 20 points below the 95 neckline.

I did think about taking a shot at ERY overnight on Wednesday, but didn’t. The ETF had pulled back seven days to it’s 20-day moving average. This pullback was the first since it’s big gap higher, and day high close.

Since I didn’t buy overnight, I bought the 5-minute high. I also bought SKF pre-market, and TZA fairly soon after the bell. Holding 50 percent of the positions into the holiday weekend played out with no significant pullbacks hitting my stops.

Lazy Summer Trading

Online Stock Trading — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:08:28 +0000

The pick of trading plays has dried up this summer week, as another quarter ends tomorrow. Those penny stock plays that were thriving a few weeks ago are silent too. I feel the quiet before the storm. Or maybe I’m just being lazy, but I see no reason to work too hard trying to trade a market without a trend.

I am watching ERY, as the pullback on the daily fills the gap, but not in any hurry there, as the moving averages flatten out.

XAU is trying to form a lower high on the daily. I wouldn’t trust the pattern though.

Searching for a Trend

Online Stock Trading — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 03:28:58 +0000

The market is still trying to find a trend as Monday’s 25 point SPX loss was regained today. Last of the month and quarter end window dressing? Will the market find a trend in July? You can’t guess right now. Today’s rally could be just as quickly reversed tomorrow. Note the bounces off their 50 day moving averages in AAPL, GOOG, the SPX, QLD and others.

SPX will have to clear 927 with conviction for me to believe we’re heading back to 950. If it stalls, we could be setting up the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. One day at a time in this market.

Deep Market Thoughts for 062209

Online Stock Trading — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:52:37 +0000

The 50dma and 200dma should stall the SPX drop. That might be for just today. 880 is support under that. The real test lies there.

XAU is on the toboggan ride south to 130. AEM has lost a significant trendline and it’s 50dma today.

Oil service stocks have rallied almost 100% in just 3 months. That sector has helped fuel the broad market. OIH is trading under it’s 50dma today. The 200 dma should stall the decline near 93, as well as the May low pivot. Support below that sits at 85 where it broke out in April.

XAU 130

Online Stock Trading — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 19:07:26 +0000

Gold stocks are weak today. Note how AEM failed to hold the breakout into the 60’s. It’s retraced to the 50dma, and put in a higher-high candle, but failed to followthrough there too.

XAU is still trading inside of a fairly defined channel. 130 looks likely.

The Bulls Take a Breather

Online Stock Trading — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 03:38:20 +0000

Looks like the Russell 2000 has major support around 450. The 200 and 50 dmas will stall it on the way down. TZA is acting well.

TYP gave a decent entry on thew 60minute chart… higher low entry. Buy the higher-high candle after the pivot, and use the prior candle’s low as the stop.

Triple tops and bottoms usually fail. The break below the $SOX triple bottom added confirmation to the technology breakdown, and long buy of TYP.

Trading Market Thoughts – Trannies and Oil

Online Stock Trading — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 14:26:59 +0000

The transportation index $TRAN is testing a breakout level here. It must hold.

USO is coming back to test a breakout level. The 200dma is still within reach.

The Oil Service stocks are painting a failed breakout scenario. Long is still the trend. Look to short a lower high. A touch of the 200dma by USO, and a lower high OIH would be the best area to search for shorts.

LEA AXL AGEN LULU TEN OCLS

Online Stock Trading — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 15:51:30 +0000

This is just a small list of stocks in play. While the broad market trades in a sideways fashion, a select few stocks are ripping higher daily. Trade it until it doesn’t work.

On the broad market front… because I still have to monitor it, the Russell 2k stalled once again at it’s bottom channel trendline.

SPX trades sideways as well.