Ontario Horse Racing

Canadian Broodmare Sires Could Have an Impact on this Year's Kentucky Derby Trail

2012-01-13T11:55:00.001-05:00

With thoroughbred season at Woodbine still three months away I like to shift my attention to the Kentucky Derby trail in the winter. When putting together my "top 10 to watch" for the Kentucky Derby trail this year I came across an interesting piece of Canadiana; 5 of the top early KD contenders have Canadian bred sires as broodmare sires.

The Cash Call futurity at Hollywood was an exacta of Canadian broodmare sires with Liaison and Rousing Sermon running 1-2.

Liaison is a fast son of Indian Charlie for Bob Baffert. With Indian Charlie being the sire you have to wonder how well he is going to stretch out but luckily for him, Canadian bred, Belmont winner, Victory Gallop is his broodmare sire.

Rousing Sermon may have been best in the Cash Call as he had to go very very wide and still got up for second. Sired by a son of Pulpit he has distance breeding on top but if he needs any help stretching out he will get it from his broodmare sire, Canadian bred Awesome Again.

There have been three important stake races for 3 year olds this year: The Gulfstream Park Derby, the Sham Stakes and the Count Fleet Stakes. 2 of the 3 winners have Canadian bred broodmare sires.

Alpha may be Darley/Godolphin's best chance so far at winning a Kentucky Derby. He firmly stamped his spot on everyone's "to watch list" after winning the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct with ease. Alpha's broodmare sire is the winner of the 1970 English triple crown, Canadian bred Nijinsky II.

Reveron upset the Gulfstream Park Derby over a personal favourite of the blog's Casual Trick. A son of Songandaprayer he will need help stretching out from his dam's side and here again we find one of the best stamina influences in NA right now; Canadian bred Awesome Again.

Of course, it would be foolish to compile any Kentucky Derby list without looking back at last years BC juvenille.

Dullahan could be the one other than Union Rags and Hansen who is the most sought after in KD fantasy pools. Well back early he makes a terrific late run to come from 13th and finish 4th. Dullahan is a half brother to 2009 winner Mine That Bird and both are out of a mare who was sired by Canadian bred Smart Strike.

Interestingly, none of the dam's are Canadian bred but none the less it could be a banner year for Canadian bred broodmare sires.

Is it possible Inglorious doesn't win the three year old filly championship?

2011-11-15T21:36:00.000-05:00

When Inglorious exploded through a hole at the top of the stretch and ran away from the Queen's Plate field I immediately penciled her in as the three year old filly champion. How could you not? After all, winning the Queen's Plate has basically guaranteed you the three year old male title over the last few years; Big Red Mike, Eye of the Leopard and Not Bourbon went a combined 1 for 9 in the races after the Queen's Plate the year of their Plate wins. So, how could a filly win the Oaks and Plate and not win her championship divisional honours? Seemed impossible.

Further enhancing her case: Dancethruthedawn, Dance Smartly and La Lorgnette were the last three Oaks/Plate double winners and all three were Champion three year old filly. And it's not as if Inglorious only has the Oaks and Plate to rest her laurels on: She won the La Lorgnette Stakes, was 2nd in the G3 Rachel Alexandra Stakes, 3rd in the G3 Selene Stakes and 4th in the G2 Fair Ground Oaks. You could make the case that she's had a better year than Biofuel did last year; Biofuel is not only the reigning three year old filly champ but the defending horse of the year. As of this morning Inglorious is 19th in North America in money earned. In 21st, 22nd and 23rd: Regally Ready, Musical Romance and Caleb's Posse; all 3, Breeders Cup winners.

However, Inglorious has not won since the Plate and another Canadian bred, three year old filly has exploded onto the scene. Marketing Mix showed promise earlier in the year when second in the fury and third in the Oaks but since switching to turf she has really excelled, with three wins. Her wins in the Wonder Where, (third leg of the triple tiara) G3 Pucker Up at Arlington and G2 Miss Revere at Churchill are all great resume builders for championship honours. It is however, her second place finish in the G1 QEII at Keeneland that might be the difference when it comes time to vote. The QEII is one of the most prestigious races in North America and when Marketing Mix was second she finished ahead of every top American trained filly in the race. With two Graded wins to Inglorious' none and a 2nd in a Grade 1 race, Marketing Mix may have done enough to take the honours away from Inglorious.

Whatever way the vote goes, both fillies are deserved winners and exciting Canadian bred fillies to watch next year. Who's your pick?

Where does the time go? Woodbine's fall Graded races ='s BC success and Autumn Stakes at Woodbine on Saturday

2011-11-09T20:48:00.000-05:00

I knew it had been a little while since I last posted anything on the blog but 4 and a 1/2 months...

After watching the Breeders Cup all weekend I feel renewed and ready to get back into the blogging game.

One thing I noticed while watching the BC was that horses that had their last race at Woodbine were faring extremely well.

Let's start with the Juvenille Fillies Turf where the winner Stephanie's Kitten was third in the Natalma earlier this fall and locally raced Hard Not To Like was fifth in both races.

Perfect Shirl parlayed her second place finish in the Grade 2 Canadian at Woodbine into a win in the Filly and Mare Turf. Big congrats to Roger Attfield for getting one for the home team!

Excaper almost scored another one for the home team finishing second in the Juvenille Turf for trainer Ian Black. He was 4th in the Grey Stakes and second in the Summer stakes at Woodbine in his two prior races.

Regally Ready was first in the Nearctic Stakes before being the only favourite to win on BC Saturday. He won the Turf Sprint for another trainer with strong Woodbine connections in Steve Asmussen.

Stately Victor has finished third twice at Woodbine this year and he outran his odds in the BC turf when finishing 5th as the 9th of 9 betting choices.

And then there was the mile... The Woodbine Mile received a ringing endorsement when Court Vision (7th in the Woodbine Mile) and Turallure (1st) finished 1, 2 in the BC Mile.

Pretty impressive! You'd have to imagine that a trend like that will get noticed and the fall racing at Woodbine, which is already incredible should continue to get stronger.

Autumn Stakes on Saturday

Entries

Great field!

City Wolf, a half brother to Ghostzapper, is doing his best impersonation of his older brother winning 4 in a row going into the Autumn. He is a very talented individual and when a mare with the produce record of Baby Zip produces a 4 in a row winner you have to begin to wonder just how high the limit is.

James Street has three wins at Woodbine this year including the Grade 3 Seagram Cup. He was also twice second in Grade 3 races this year.

Pender Harbour your 'no doubt about it' 3 year old Sovereign award winner has already defeated older horses at Woodbine in the Bunty Lawless Stakes. On Saturday he will go up against the best older horses at Woodbine in an attempt to capture a few votes for horse of the year.

Court of the Realm and Stunning Stag have both won Graded stake races at Woodbine this year.

Mobilizer, Artic Fern and Hotep were arguably the three favourites for the 2010 Queen's Plate about a week before the race and have come back to have good four year old years.

Woodbine continues to put out terrific fields in their Graded stakes races and from a betting perspective you should get a good price on whomever you like in the Autumn Stakes.

Queens Plate Field and Post Positions

2011-06-23T11:18:00.001-04:00

The draw for this years Queen's Plate has been completed and an interesting field of 17 is set to contest the 152nd gallop for the guinneas on Sunday.

Imhotep
Curgone
Oh Canada
One Big Gator
Pender Harbour
Head Honcho
Strike Oil
Okiyama
Inglorious
Enduring Star
Ojibway Signal
Seawatch
Check Your Soul
Queens Plate Kitten
Hippolytus
Bowmans Causeway
Maple Leaf Kitten

The dreaded 1 hole was left over for Imhotep. With front running guru Emile Ramsammy aboard and plenty of room to the inside of the 1 hole (due to the configuration of the starting gates where the auxillary gate will be placed next to the rail and the 1, 2 and 3 doors left vacant) I expect Imhotep to head to the front. The inside and speed worked well for Big Red Mike last year and Imhotep was a long shot worth considering to begin with.

The only confirmed front runner is Curgone who will have Go-Go Gomez aboard. He drew well for speed in the 2 hole and should face little conflicting speed in what should be a slow opening half mile.

Morning line favourite Check Your Soul opted for the 13 hole with positions 9 through 12 still available. Roger Attfield and Charles Fipke were in lucky 13 for Not Bourbon's win and look to be twice lucky from the same spot. As an unintended consequence of that move, the other favourite, Queen'splatekitten drew right alongside him in post 14. The cat and mouse game between jockeys Patrick Husbands and John Velazquez will be very interesting to watch as both horses appear to be able to be ridden in any portion of the race.

The filly Inglorious drew right in the middle with post 9. The middle is a very crowded area of middle of the pack runners and it could a little difficult for jockey Luis Contreras to find a comfortable position to travel in. The good news for her connections is that she, more than any other in the field has proven herself in congested areas before.

For me the most intriguing draw is Bowman's Causeway way out wide in post 16. he has shown adaptable racing styles in the past and it will be interesting to see just how far forward jockey Eurico Rosa Da Silva wants to be in the early stages of the race.

With the Plate just three days away it's time to start handicapping!

A trip to the Farm

2011-06-17T13:47:00.000-04:00

I recently had the opportunity to go visit with Tetherette - a winner of just a whisker shy of $300k and sister to two winners at Woodbine this year: Medabuck and Queen on Line - and her new foal. The foal is sired by 1996 Breeders Cup Classic winner Alphabet Soup. Below are a couple of photos I took while visiting them at the terrific Intrepid Racing facility in Newmarket.

An Interesting Plate Shaping Up

2011-06-14T22:56:00.000-04:00

When it comes to winning major stake races in Canada, the Plate included, there are no bigger Canadian stables than Melnyk Racing, Stronach Stables, Sam-Son Farms and Gustav Schickedanz.  Between them they have won 14 of the last 16 Outstanding owner Sovereign awards, 7 of the last 14 Queen's Plates and Schickedanz owned Wando, the last triple crown winner.

Thus a year ago today it was no surprise when the early favourites for the 2010 Queen's Plate were Hotep (Sam-Son Farms), Mobilizer(Stronach Stables) and Artic Fern(Gustav Schickedanz). 2011 however has proved to be a trying year for the big stables and between the four of them they appear to have no starters or at best a couple of the longest shots in the race.

All is not lost however as there are four stars in the making who make this years Plate not only worth the price of admission but potentially the deepest Plate field since Woodbine installed the polytrack: Check Your Soul, Queensplatekitten, Bowmans Causeway and Inglorious.

Check Your Soul stumbled onto the scene at Gulfstream Park in Florida back in March; essentially galloping through his first start, in which he ultimately finished 8th. Since then he has been downright unbeatable: Winning at the prestigious spring Keeneland meet before picking up two of the Queen's Plate prep races in the Wando and Plate Trial Stakes. In the Plate Trial he won for fun and despite jockey Patrick Husbands not urging him at all he was well clear and won by more than three lengths. His breeding is all class and with Sadlers Wells being his grandsire and Unbridled his damsire the extra distance of the Plate should only help him.

Queensplatekitten announced himself as a potential Plate favourite in the last week of the 2010 Woodbine meet winning his maiden race with an eye-opening 'turn of foot' entering the stretch. He would then head down to the ultra-competitive Gulfstream Park meet and knock heads with some of the best American three year old turf racers. In an allowance race there he handily beat Moonshine Mullin who came back to capture the Victoria Park stakes last weekend at Woodbine. A start in the graded Palm Beach Stakes earned him a good runner-up effort losing to a loose on the lead Joes Blazing Aaron. In his first trip back to Woodbine he won the Marine Stakes easily again demonstrating a brilliant turn of foot entering the stretch. Like Check Your Soul his pedigree is loaded with stamina influences starting with his sire Kittens Joy (also from the Sadlers Wells line) and his damsire Wild Again winner of the inaugural Breeders Cup Classic.

Bowmans Causeway immediately moved to the top of many a Queen's Plate watch list when he won a maiden race at a mile and an eighth at Gulfstream Park. He subsequently ran a credible fourth in the Derby prep race, Fountain of Youth. Finishing fifth in that race... Preakness winner Shackleford. He was then an okay third in an allowance at Gulfstream where he was again against top competition in Dance City who would run fifth in the Preakness. After a non-run in the Florida Derby he re-emerged at Woodbine in the Plate Trial Stakes and looked the easy winner until Check Your Soul flew past him.  Bowmans Causeway is sired by perennial top sire Giants Causeway and should have no trouble with the extra distance of the Plate.

Inglorious is not-confirmed as a starter in the Plate as of this writing but if she does run she arguably is the most proven of all those entered. Inglorious is a perfect 4 for 4 at Woodbine, all in stake races, including most recently a commanding performance in the Woodbine Oaks. It may however be her two losses that really demonstrate just how classy Inglorious is. Both came at Fair Grounds on traditional dirt, a surface that ultimately is not her best and doesn't allow her to fully utilize her most dangerous weapon; a beautiful turn of foot. In the Rachel Alexandra she was a game second finishing behind the multiple graded stake winner Kathmanblu. She then was fourth in the Fair Ground Oaks behind St Johns River who would come out of that race to run second in the Kentucky Oaks.  A case could be made that Inglorious is the front runner for horse of the year at this early stage of 2011 and a good result in the Plate would only further strengthen her case.

In the past 17 years only Wando has won the Queen's Plate and gone on to win the Sovereign award for horse of the year in Canada.  Check Your Soul, Queensplatekitten, Bowmans Causeway and Inglorious all have made strong progress towards earning a Sovereign award for horse of the year but first one of them has to win the Queens Plate.

Preakness Selections + Congrats to Emma Jayne Wilson + Quick Woodbine Selections

2011-05-21T09:00:00.000-04:00

If you don't watch the Dan Illman and Mike Beer stake race previews you are missing out. These guys do a great job of breaking down the weekends stake races and are very entertaining. I'm also a regular reader of Dan's blog and will occasionally take a shot at his HandiGambling competition. Here is what I think of the Preakness today and how I will be playing it:

I'm going back to the well one more time as I really like Mucho Macho Man for the win today. He is getting better every race and is due to have a breakthrough performance. I think his grinding running style is actually better suited for the Belmont (and I think distance will help not hurt) but if Animal Kingdom bounces at all and Dialed In encounters any traffic trouble I think Mucho Macho Man is your winner. The others I will be using are:

Dance City - I like him the most of the pacesetters as I'm thinking Shackleford could be due a regression and Flashpoint is a horse I consider a sprinter.

Sway Away - I expect him to be sitting farther back than in the Arkansas Derby and coming with one late run. The jockey switch is a plus and he has shown talent before.

Mr. Commons - A really talented horse with lots of potential upside but is probably going to be better on turf in the long run. I'm a big fan of Artie Schiller as a sire and El Prado as a sire of sires.

Dialed In - He could very easily win this but Pimlico has a short stretch and I could see someone getting the jump on him and pulling away before he shakes clear of traffic.

Animal Kingdom - I think he will win but I'm not betting him as there is no value in it and there is always the possibility he bounces off that terrific race in the Derby.

My play: $20 WPS Mucho Macho Man, $2 trifecta 9 / 6,8,10,11,14 / 6,8,10,11,14

Emma Jayne Wilson

The inaugural female jockey challenge was run as part of yesterdays Black Eyed Susan day at Pimlico and Canadian jockey Emma Jayne Wilson came away with the victory! Emma Jayne Wilson has been riding really well this year, picking up a couple wins at Gulfstream over the winter and almost 20 already in the opening weeks of the Woodbine meet.

Bloodhorse article

Quick Woodbine Selections

Three consecutive, terrific days of racing at Woodbine, get underway at 1:00 this afternoon. The weekend is highlighted by todays Marine Stakes.

Some quick selections for today:

Race 3: Kardashian is your best chance of the day. In his maiden race he was going against Painted Woman who was making her second start and was an obvious selection hereself. I expect Kardashian to parlay her experience into a win. 3 / 1 / 8

Race 6: Moment of Majesty was really coming into her own last year and if she has returned from her lengthy layoff (since last years Queens Plate) as good as she was last year she is better than this field. Full Moon Party is the best of the speed and has a nice winter foundation to draw on. 4 / 5 / 8

Race 9: I already talked about this race a little earlier in the race but since then I've gone and looked at Queen'splatekittens pedigree in more depth and I'm now even more confident he will be your Queen's Plate favourite on June 26th. He gets a nice infusion of class on the mare side from Lake Champlain and his broodmare sires Wild Again and Chief's Crown were extremely talented racehorses who have produced Canadian champions as sires (Wilderness Song and Chief Bearhart respectively). 3 / 4 / 1

Marine Stakes features a possible Queen's Plate favourite in Queensplatekitten

2011-05-18T17:07:00.000-04:00

The first two turn open stake race for three year olds, the Marine Stakes drew a field of six for Saturday.

Headlining the entries is the Todd Pletcher trained Queensplatekitten who was second in the Grade 3 Plam Beach Stakes at Gulfstream this year. I currently have him ranked second behind only the super-impressive Bear's Chill in the Power Rankings.

Oh Canada, who was recently third in the Queenston Stakes makes his third start off the layoff and stretches out in the Marine; both popular angles amongst the gambling public.

Bow Bell Reef an Ontario sired maiden racing for trainer Desmond Maynard rounds out the Queen's Plate eligibles entered.

Both QPK and Oh Canada could be major players on June 26th so be sure to keep a close eye on how they fare on Saturday. There is very little in the way of pace in this race with the Attfield trained Cafe Elektric being the probable pacesetter only due to post position and a lack of any other pacesetter. In a race with as little pace as this one I look to see who has displayed the best turn of foot. It seems very likely that all entered will be bunched with lots of lung capacity left entering the stretch and the first to get the jump should be able to hold on. For me that is QPK who demonstrated a remarkable turn of foot on Woodbine's polytrack in a race last December. The Chad Brown trainee Walkers Landing also fits the bill and with two wins in a row has momentum on his side. Cafe Elektric is the product of terrific European breeding, being sired by Pivotal and out of a $300,000 King's Best broodmare. I'll take those three on top with Oh Canada edging the Greg de Gannes trained Silverleo for fourth.

Entries

Selections: Queensplatekitten / Walkers Landing / Cafe Elektric

3 Queens Plate Fantasy Challenge Eligibles in the Entries for Friday

2011-05-11T09:38:00.000-04:00

Friday kicks off the second day of racing in the Marine Session of the Queens Plate Fantasy Challenge. There are 3 eligibles entered in the lists:

Race 5 is an allowance race for three year olds and up at six furlongs. Pender Harbour listed at 10-1 in the Queen's Plate future pools makes his first start of the year here. I'm not 100% sold he is completely keyed up for this race as his light work schedule leads me to believe Mike De Paulo may be using the race as a tightener. Then again does he really need to be fully ready to go to beat this field?

Race 7 is a N1X allowance for three year olds. Ice Danger, the Murray Stroud / Sam Di Pasquale runner makes his seasonal debut here. It is a tough spot to come back in as he faces a number of promising runners who already have a race under their belts this meet. Included amongst those are Magoo and Eddington Limit who both have wins this meet. I like Ice Danger the most of the three mentioned here but I'm still not using him execting a better than 3rd finish.

Race 9 is an Ontario sired maiden race for three year olds and up at six furlongs. Molinaro FT Sassy is a QPFC eligible. These Ontario Sired races are often wide open affairs, particularly when the 3 year olds are getting mixed in with the 4 and 5 year olds. I wouldn't say I recommend Molinaro FT Sassy but you can be forgiven for selecting him in this stage as anyone who races is better than speculating on who may race.

Good Luck!

Queens Plate Fantasy Challenge Round 2

2011-05-10T09:39:00.000-04:00

The newest version of the QPFC seems to be generating interest from many parties not associated with horse racing every day. Which, I would imagine, is what it was designed to do, so congrats to the brain trust behind this years re-vamping.

The deadline for changing your round 2 stable is Wednesday evening. When considering who to pick in this round you may want to start by seeing who is still nominated after the sustaining round of nomination payments:

First round nominations

Second round nominations

Quite a few new faces on this list, some who I would love to see incorporated into the final round of the QPFC: Bear's Chill and Elite Alex to name the two most prominent. There are by my count 47 entrants who did not pay the sustaining fee and are now off the Queen's Plate trail.

As far as the Marine Stakes goes. Last year, Hotep was the only Queen's Plate nominated horse who took part, finishing second to the Pletcher trainee Exhi. This year it looks like there may be a couple of Queen's Plate nominees racing if Roger Attfield wheels Check Your Soul back in two weeks for the second straight time, who should be joined by at least one of, if not both Sensational Slam and Queensplatekitten. Both of whom are trained by last years winning trainer Todd Pletcher.

Good luck to everyone making their Round 2 selections and be sure to check back for the updated power rankings later tonight.

Final Derby Thoughts and Bear's Chill

2011-05-09T17:05:00.001-04:00

What a great Derby! Animal Kingdom ran a terrific race and is going to be a heavy favourite for the Preakness where he could face a field arguably better than the one he faced on Saturday. I was surprised at the slow pace that ended up developing after Shackelford made a lone lead. What was not surprising was the way the rest of the pacesetters ran, finishing 9th, 11th, 14th and 19th. They simply do not have the pedigrees to run 10 furlongs. More and more the biggest American dirt races are being populated by horses that will not run their best race going 10 furlongs and it makes you wonder if a heavy influx of turf sires is what's needed to improve the quality of the breed. Don't be surprised if 15 years from now Paddy O Prado, Gio Ponti and Animal Kingdom have sired more winners of the Derby, Breeders Cup Classic, Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Santa Anita Handicap than Super Saver, Big Brown and Curlin.

Good luck to Animal Kingdom moving forward on the triple crown.

If you're looking for handicapping advice you may want to try Tripledeadheat as Keith nailed the winner on Friday night. For me, the trifecta just missed as I had the 2nd, 3rd (switched in Nehro for Mo when he scratched) and 4th place finishers. I did however hit the Oaks /Derby double for $176 recouping my lost trifecta wager.

Queenston Stakes

Unfortunate timing for Bear's Chill to win his first stakes race as Kentucky Derby coverage had already started by the time the big son of Artie Schiller had run huge to establish himself as the fastest Canadian bred three year old. How fast was the Queenston? Well, he ran seven furlongs 2 tenths of a second faster than older male sovereign award finalist Stunning Stag did the next day. Both Thoroughblog and Bill Tallon of DRF report he earned a 97 Beyer figure for the race. Moving forward the question will be can he relax because if he runs a 22 second flat, second quarter (as he did on Saturday) in a 9 or 10 furlong race I have a hard time believing he will be able to hold on.

Watch in the opening stages of the race how he stands his ears straight up in the air again!

Oh Canada was a very respectable third in this race and has the kind of pedigree that leads me to belive he will improve as the races get longer. Say No More is apparently going to stick to the sprinter path in what is an admirable decision by his connections. Black N Beauty I would love to see turn back as he seems best at 6 furlongs to me and Sardonicus will need a drastic change of form to compete with the Plate contenders moving forward. Both (Say No More and Oh canada) are sure to move up the latest edition of the power rankings when I am finished them this week.

Got your Derby Horse Yet?

2011-05-05T17:00:00.000-04:00

This Derby trail has been anything but textbook: From beaten favourites to injury defections and everything in between; the six month Derby trail is littered with discarded "Derby horses." Then just when you finally think you have one, in this case Archarcharch... he draws the rail!

In a race as wide open as this Derby trail I'm going to use the old racing addage "Pace makes the race" as the number one integral in deciding who to pick with my Derby selections.

When assessing how the "pace" of the race is going to develop the first question I always ask myself is "how much, if any, conflicting speed is there?"

Frontrunners

Decisive Moment being drawn to the inside of Comma To The Top essesntially ensures he will have to go to the front as well. There is no speed to his inside and too much to his outside to prevent him getting trapped on the rail behind horses if he doesn't go. Likewise Pants on Fire will most likely head to the front as well; he has a good middle of the pack post and the potential of stalking just off the hip of Comma To The Top should be too much enticement for Rosie Napravnik to ignore. A little further outside and determining what Rajiv Maragh and Mucho Macho Man do could be the key to figuring out the pace set-up of this race. If Mucho Macho Man heads towards the front to conflict the pace he will be ensuring Shackelford, Midnight Interlude, Soldat and Uncle Mo will all have to draft in and form the "stalking pack." I for one think MMM will hold off a little and let Shackelford and maybe Soldat go by him from the outside.

That is 8 entrants who have been either, on or contesting the lead in 2 of their last 3 starts. I see no way that the pace of the Derby is not very fast and I would be surprised if the opening quarter is above 23.5 seconds and the opening half is above 47.2 seconds.

Are any of the frontrunners good enough to win running on a pace that hot? For me the answer is no but there are a few who I could see coming real close. Shackelford has been the talk of Derby week, working impressively and the same was being said of Super Saver last year and Uncle Mo has shown flashes of the brilliance it takes to win the Derby.

The next question to ask is "are there any middle of the pack style runners with the turn of foot necessary to catch the frontrunners entering the stretch?"

Middle of the Pack

Stay Thirsty and Twice the Appeal may have wound up with the best draws in the field as there are a plethora of frontrunners and deep closers to both their outside and inside. They could find themselves inheriting a good chasing spot just off the conflicted pace by doing nothing more than breaking cleanly. A little further out and Master of Hounds, Santiva, Mucho Macho Man and Midnight Interlude will be navigating horses trying to find themselves a comfortable spot a couple of lengths off the pace. Watch Me Go, from the outside, also fits into this category but he will most likely be faced with the unenviable position of floating 4-5 wide around the first turn or dropping farther back into more of a closer role. Then there is Archarcharch who would ideally like to be part of this group but will have to accept getting boxed-in against the rail to do so. Don't be entirely surprised if jockey Jon Court actually drops Archarcharach further back than normal in an attempt to find some flexibility.

Someone from this group is where I will be looking for the winner. With the fast pace and questionable 10 furlong pedigrees of some of the frontrunners there could be a huge logjam as horses tire at the quarter pole. For the closers this will be a huge obstacle but for those a little closer in the mid-pack range, it is far more likely they can take advantage of any seam that opens with a quick turn of foot. Archarcharch has demonstrated that exact quality twice (Southwest and Arkansas Derby) but with the rail draw I cannot pick him. Of those listed above Mucho Macho Man and Stay Thirsty are the other two who have really impressed me in prior races with their ability to accelerate. I also like Midnight Interlude in this role but I will not be picking a non-two year old raced horse to win the Derby.

It's a tough task for a mid-pack horse as they have to be quick enough to track down the frontrunner or two that "stays" and durable enough to hold off the late charge of any of the closers that get through the logjam.

The last question to ask is "are any of the one-run closers good enough to overcome troubled trips?"

The Closers

In any 10 furlong plus race but the Derby I find myself gravitating to horses with this style. The Derby however is a unique race for two reasons:

1) It has a twenty horse field
2) There are many horses entered who have no chance at continuing on for the entire 10 furlongs

That second issue is why Ice Box's running line from last year reads "steadied, blocked, steadied." The fact of the matter is of the nine potential front runners, five of them will be spent and backing up into the closers as they go around the turn. Then when they get to the stretch the closers will have to navigate more backing up horses as the remaining frontrunners and chasers all start to tire as well. Lastly Churchill has such a long stretch because the turn is tighter than most tracks meaning just circling the field is a sure recipe for finishing no better than third.

Brilliant Speed, Derby Kitten, Twinspired and Animal Kingdom all have shown a late running style in the past and when you consider that they have either a) not liked dirt kickback or b) never experienced kickback it is very likely they will all be at or very near the back. Dialed In has never shown early speed and he was dead last early in his maiden start at Churchill; he will most likely be between 18th and 20th here as well. Nehro has shown the flexibility to run closer to the pace if necessary but with the pace setup here and the fact he drew way outside in the 19th post he will most likely be keeping Dialed In company in the early going.

Of these six Brilliant Speed, Animal Kingdom, Dialed In and Nehro all have the kind of past performance that leaves me thinking they could be good enough to overcome all obstacles. Brilliant Speed and Animal Kingdom are both going to be great turfers in the future but it's not without precedent for good turf horses to run well on Derby day (Paddy O Prado and Big Brown) so don't be too quick to discount them. Dialed In and Nehro are the two though who everybody, myself included will be looking for in that final furlong as when they finally break clear they will be coming. If either gets a clean trip they will most likely be your winner. Consider in the last two years Dennis of Cork finished third from 20th, Ice Box finished second from 19th and Make Music For Me finished fourth from 20th.

What does it all mean

As I see the race playing out there will be 9 horses still running well enough to win the race upon entering the two furlong stretch of Churchill Downs. Shackelford and Uncle Mo will be leading with Stay Thirsty, Mucho Macho Man and Midnight Interlude right behind them. Trying to navigate a clear course will be Animal Kingdom, Brilliant Speed, Dialed In and Nehro. With a furlong left I'm thinking Mucho Macho Man will have collared the leaders I like Dialed In to be absolutely flying late and get up for second with Shackelford holding on for third.

As far as gambling goes (please do not count this as expert advice) I plan on doing a 4 X 5 X 10 $1 trifecta for $128. 8, 13, 14, 18 / 8, 13, 14, 18, 19 / 1, 2, 4, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19. Of those I've left off, not having AAA in either the 1 or 2 spot scares me despite the rail draw as I had him winning with just about any other post and Soldat certainly is talented enough to hit the board. I may even end up taking Mo out of the 2 and 3 spot for Soldat as I'm thinking if Mo doesn't open up on the field and run away on them he will most likely miss the top 3 altogether. The Derby is finally here, enjoy!

The Oaks

From a rooting interest perspective I would love to see the Canadian bred filly Joyful Victory win the Kentucky Oaks. Like Archarcharch she drew the rail, a definite negative but one I'm hopeful jockey Mike Smith will be able to overcome.

Woodbine

The first of the Canadian bred only, stake races on the Queen's Plate trail is on Saturday and many of the Queen's Plate hopefuls are entered. I will have more on the weekend at Woodbine late Thursday.

Artic Fern, Roxy Gap, Check Your Soul and Frankel... With some interesting Derby workout videos

2011-05-02T18:13:00.000-04:00

Four races this weekend that I was eagerly awaiting all turned out to be very entertaining. Before we get too that just a quick mention that I'm working on a Derby/Oaks preview that will hopefully be up tomorrow or Wednesday after the Derby post positions are drawn.

Race 4 on Saturday was a high level AOC that featured last years pre Plate favourite Artic Fern taking on 2010 Plate winner Big Red Mike. Also entered was a good pair of Sid Attard trainees Jungle Wave and D'oro Diablo. Big Red Mike disappointed fading to last but to be fair there was a very strong bias against the inside horses on Saturday. Artic Fern on the other hand ran huge and easily pulled away in the final eighth to win by open lengths under nothing more than a vigorous hand ride by jockey David Clark. The Handicap division at Woodbine was already looking strong this year with Southdale, Stunning Stag, Mobilizer and others all returning to the races but Artic Fern is one they will all need to fear in upcoming Stake races. He now has 4 wins and a second in 5 career starts.

Shortly after that was the running of the Fury Stakes for Canadian bred fillies at seven furlongs. Two scratches left the Fury with a field of only four but all four are promising three year olds and the one two finishers (Roxy Gap and Marketing Mix) look destined for a rematch in the Oaks. In the Fury Roxy Gap sat comfortably in third behind a pace being contested by her stablemate. Rounding the turn she moved very quickly to close the gap with the leaders and displayed a terrific turn of foot entering the stretch. She got a little aggressive when passing her stablemate but all in all she ran a good race and looks to be back to her form of last year. I'm still not certain about her running her best race at the 9 furlongs of the Oaks let alone the 10 of the Plate but she is certainly the most dynamic one turn three year old filly at Woodbine. Marketing Mix ran well late to make up ground on Roxy Gap (who ran the last furlong in 12 and 2) and her pedigree certainly suggests she will get better as the distances lengthen.

On Sunday the second of the four preps for the Queen's Plate was run; the Wando Stakes. Check Your Soul racing for Roger Attfield and Charles Fipke was a very dominant winner, overcoming a slow pace to win rather easily and gallop out like he had lots more left if needed. Mr. Attfield is having an incredible start to 2011 and with 8 Plate victories already to his name don't be surprised if he has multiple entries in this years edition as well. I would imagine the 8.5 furlong Marine Stakes would be next for Check Your Soul. Top Prospect while overmatched against the winner is one I will continue to look for in the future as he continued to run throughout and actually was coming on again at the end; his dam (Strike Me Lucky) won the Claire Marine stakes at 12 furlongs so he should improve as the races get longer as well.

Saturday was also the running of the English 2000 Guineas and Frankel lived up to expectations making an easy lead and winning by open lengths. In my humble opinion he is the best horse in training right now and I would love to see him come over for the Breeders Cup mile this year. His running style has his trainer skeptical about running in the Epsom Derby but I for one think they should go ahead and give it a try as no one in the Guineas was catching him even if the race was another mile!

Lastly if you want to take a look at how some of the Derby/Oaks contenders are working over the Churchill surface I highly recommend this collection

Here are a couple of my favourites:

Joyful Victory, Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty.

And a good look at the more routine galloping of the early morning.

Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge and Power Rankings

2011-04-25T11:45:00.002-04:00

The Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge gets underway this Wednesday. As in prior years, you build a stable of 10 horses and 3 jockeys and earn points as your stable earns money. Different this year is a new sectioned concept where prizes will be awarded after each of the major Queen's Plate preps: The Queenston, Marine and Plate Trial Stakes; as well as, after the conclusion of the Plate itself. The QPFC is free to enter and offers real money prizes, so be sure to get your team in.

As a primer for the QPFC the blog is happy to unveil this years first edition of the three year old Power Rankings. Last year the power rankings underwent significant change from the first edition in May to the last in August. Essence Hit Man, Big Red Mike, Hotep and Stormy Lord were staples throughout the spring/summer last year with Essence Hit Man ending on top of the last edition of the power rankings. One of the reasons Woodbine racing is so much fun, is that past favourites very frequently return past their three year old year; Of the ten horses on the first edition of last years Power Rankings, 4 have raced this year (3 have won already), 4 are in training for their 2011 debuts and only 2 (Hotep and Resentless) have no published works or races in 2011.

I posted a Queen's Plate power rankings in February but we're going to call this edition the first official Power Rankings of the year.

The Power Rankings are used to determine the class of a particular field, in this case three year old Canadian breds. No distinction is made between routes and sprints or poly, dirt and turf. It is strictly a class determination; meaning if two horses met on a fictitious surface and distance that they were equally inclined towards, who would win? In short call this the three year old(s) of the year power rankings.

3 Year Old Canadian Bred Open Division

Rank - Name - Last week - Change - Starts / wins / seconds / thirds - earnings

1. Bear's Chill - N/A - N/A - 4 / 2 / 1 / 0 - $98,684

He has run the fastest of this years three year olds and has destroyed the field in both his latest races at Woodbine. His pedigree has a good amount of class being out of a dam who won a leg of the Triple Tiara in Canada and sired by Artie Schiller a Breeders Cup Mile winner. The question for him will be stretching out as he has proved headstrong in his last two at Woodbine, if he can rate he could be a future Queen's Plate winner.

2. Queen'splatekitten - N/A - N/A - 5 / 2 / 2 / 0 - $111,163

His 7th place finish in the Blue Grass wasn't as bad as it looks on paper when you consider that he was taken out of his comfort zone into an early pace pressing trip. He has all sorts of stamina influences in his pedigree and a one run closing trip in a 10 furlong race could end up being his forte. His races at Gulfstream this winter were both very good.

3. Joyful Victory - N/A - N/A - 5 / 3 / 0 / 1 - $380,100

She is the first of three, Canadian bred fillies who are already graded placed this year. She showed flashes of being great as a two year old but since transferring to Larry Jones barn, she has really flourished winning the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes in her latest. The Kentucky Oaks in a couple weeks gives her an opportunity to jump ahead of everyone and claim the top spot in the power rankings.

4. Inglorious - N/A - N/A - 4 / 2 / 1 / 0 - $230,000

After running second to Kathmanblu in the Rachel Alexandra stakes, Inglorious finished fourth in the Fair Ground Oaks as the favourite and her star has somewhat cooled since then. Everyone is entitled to a sub-best day and Inglorious has shown so much brilliance in her young career that she figures to be a staple on the rankings all year. The Fury Stakes next weekend gives her an immediate opportunity to improve her ranking.

5. Roxy Gap - N/A - N/A - 4 / 3 / 0 / 1 - $195,700

There was no better juvenille filly at Woodbine last year and only an ill-timed virus cost her a juvenille filly sovereign award. Being passed by Joyful Victory and Inglorious is less a result of her performance as it is a statement of how good those two fillies have been lately. Being sired by Indian Charlie she will most likely do her best running around one turn but her versatility on every surface (wins on poly and turf, 3rd on dirt at Gulfstream) ensure she will have no trouble finding stake races to run in. She is also likely for the Fury Stakes.

6. Oh Canada - N/A - N/A - 3 / 2 / 1 / 0 - $163,360

He came from the back of the pack to win the Woodstock Stakes demonstrating a fast turn of foot that will help him win many races in the future. Considering the 6 furlong Woodstock was probably shorter than he will run his best at, it was a very good sign for his future that he won it anyway. Both he and Bear's Chill look likely for the Queenston which should give us a good indication of each others relative class.

7. Bowman's Causeway - N/A - N/A - 6 / 1 / 1 / 2 - $61,091

He hasn't posted a work since the Florida Derby, where he did little running. It is a very real possibility that he finds himself on the injured reserve next edition. When healthy he was showing every sign of being a future star with a three race sequence that included a maiden win, a fourth in the Fountain of Youth and a third behind the promising Pletcher duo of Dance City and Cal Nation. It's possible he is being given some time before coming north to take a run at the Queen's Plate as he ran 5 times in 8 weeks this winter.

8. Black N Beauty - N/A - N/A - 7 / 2 / 2 / 0 - $102,550

This son of Devil His Due is a difficult horse to handicap; he looked to be a Derby candidate in the early stages of the winter before doing no running at all in the Hutcheson. When he came to Woodbine for the Woodstock he was making his first polytrack start (often a difficult task) and ran a closing second. Coming from off the pace in the Woodstock was also something different for him as he was a pacesetter on dirt. He needs to continue to prove his class to maintain a spot on the rankings as he has yet to have a "wow" race.

9. Sensational Slam - N/A - N/A - 5 / 3 / 0 / 0 - $221,542

He certainly looks like this years best Canadian bred sprinter and with wins on both poly and dirt he has demonstrated that he has the talent to overcome obstacles. His two attempts at two turns have been nowhere close efforts so there are definite distance limitations. I have no problem moving sprinters further up the rankings and if he continues to dominate at one turn he will quickly be moving up.

10. Check Your Soul - N/A - N/A - 2 / 1 / 0 / 0 - $26,824

The tenth spot could have gone to any of ten or fifteen but of all of them I was most impressed with how Check Your Soul ran last week at Keeneland. He closed from well off on an "off" turf in a decent time in that race and has the pedigree that says he should just keep getting better as the races get longer. The connections of this one, Fipke / Attfield have had success on the Canadian Triple Crown trail before. He is nominated for the Wando Stakes in a couple of weeks in a race that could move him up the rankings or knock him off.

Just outside: Speed Ring, Elite Alex, Enduring Star, Good Better Best, Red Ace, Blackstone Bay, Farmers Club, Stunning Split, Imhotep, Kafirstan, Sardonicus, Oban, Pender Harbour, Jojo's Mojo, Say No More, Strike Oil.

Injured Reserve: Hothersal, Bigstormbrewin, Eternal Rule.

3 Year Old Canadian Bred Fillies

Rank - Name - Last week - Change - Starts / wins / seconds / thirds - earnings

1. Joyful Victory - N/A - N/A - 5 / 3 / 0 / 1 - $380,100

She is the first of three, Canadian bred fillies who are already graded placed this year. She showed flashes of being great as a two year old but since transferring to Larry Jones barn, she has really flourished winning the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes in her latest. The Kentucky Oaks in a couple weeks gives her an opportunity to jump ahead of everyone and claim the top spot in the power rankings.

2. Inglorious - N/A - N/A - 4 / 2 / 1 / 0 - $230,000

After running second to Kathmanblu in the Rachel Alexandra stakes, Inglorious finished fourth in the Fair Ground Oaks as the favourite and her star has somewhat cooled since then. Everyone is entitled to a sub-best day and Inglorious has shown so much brilliance in her young career that she figures to be a staple on the rankings all year. The Fury Stakes next weekend gives her an immediate opportunity to improve her ranking.

3. Roxy Gap - N/A - N/A - 4 / 3 / 0 / 1 - $195,700

There was no better juvenille filly at Woodbine last year and only an ill-timed virus cost her a juvenille filly sovereign award. Being passed by Joyful Victory and Inglorious is a less a result of her performance as it is a statement of how good those two fillies have been lately. Being sired by Indian Charlie she will most likely do her best running around one turn but her versatility on every surface (wins on poly and turf, 3rd on dirt at Gulfstream) ensure she will have no trouble finding stake races to run in. She is also likely for the Fury Stakes.

4. Grand Style - N/A - N/A - 6 / 1 / 0 / 1 - $178,932

After winning the Princess Elisabeth last year she bounced a little in the South Ocean which Inglorious ended up winning. She came back this year in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland and ran an honest fifth from off the pace indicating she is ready to have a good year. Her pedigree is all class being sired by Giant's Causeway and out of a sister to Dancethruthedawn, Scatter the Gold and Dance to Destiny. All of which are the children of Canadian champion Dance Smartly. She finds herself in a 9 furlong allowance at Keeneland on Wednesday as it makes little sense to turn her back in distance right now. The Woodbine Oaks is the definite goal down the road.

5. Abrianna - N/A - N/A - 3 / 0 / 2 / 0 - $22,880

She has run a very game second twice now but needs to get on the winning train to stay in the rankings. She is from a pedigree that is very distance oriented, sired by Lemon Drop Kid, out of an Awesome Again dam so she most likely will do her best running at 9 and 10 furlongs. Unfortunately there are not a lot of 9 and 10 furlong options for her before the classics and summer turf races. Her pedigree is all class being out of the same female family as Citronnade, Whiskey Wisdom and Primaly. She has kept good company in winter works with two other Stronach Stables promising three year olds Smart Sting and Athenamore.

6. Marketing Mix - N/A - N/A - 2 / 1 / 0 / 0 - $26,824

There is a lot to like about Marketing Mix, maybe most notably the improvement she showed from her debut on dirt to her maiden win at Keeneland on the polytrack. Being sired by Medaglia D'oro a son of El Prado there is every reason to believe she will be a good polytack/turf horse in the future. Her dam is sired by stamina source Kris S and she could be a major contender for the Woodbine Oaks down the road. She is American owned and trained so there is no gurantee we see her at Woodbine but you have to figure the Oaks purse will be tempting.

7. Hoi An - N/A- N/A - 2 / 1 / 1 / 0 - $47,960

Hoi An has shown the ability to run very fast in her two starts. She should welcome up to seven furlongs of distance and I wouldn't be surprised if we next saw her in the Fury Stakes on a short turn around. She is a half-sister to the 2008 Breeders Cup Juvenille runner-up and terrific sprinter Square Eddie.

8. Isabella Bay - N/A - N/A - 7 / 2 / 0 / 2 - $122,940

Resentless sister made an early impact on the Stakes scene last year with her win in the South Ocean Stakes. She built a good foundation with seven starts as a juvenille including a race against her male counterparts in the Kingarvie Stakes. She is Ontario sired by Strut the Stage and thus is eligible for the Ontario Sired Stakes series moving forward. A couple of wins in the easier division could be enough to move her up the list.

9. Lassair - N/A - N/A - 6 / 1 / 0 / 0 - $49,590

A change in ownership and training did her well in her last start when she finally broke through to ger her first win. This ranking is based on potential as she is a sister to the best Ontario bred three year old of last year Roan Inish. Her sister relished every bit of distance and so far she has stayed sprinting so it will be interesting to see how much she improves as the races get longer.

10. Sinister Quill - N/A - N/A - 3 / 3 / 0 / 0 - $107,400

Another product of the Ontario sires being by Old Forester. She has won three in a row now as she quickly progresses through the Ontario Sired Series undefeated. She came home in 6 and 2 after pressing the pace all the way around so she is not without the talent necessarry to step up into the deeper waters of the open division allowances.

Just outside: Lucky Be Me, Bingo, Aint No Tellin, Cleopatras Finest, Medabuck, Sense of Pride, American Placed.

Injured Reserve: Tree Pose, Lisvernane.

As always I welcome contrasting lists, differring opinions, injury updates and anything else in the comments section.

Last Weekends top 5 performances by the three year olds

2011-04-19T21:31:00.001-04:00

For me this time of year is all about the three year olds. At Woodbine, Keeneland and Oaklawn, Canadian bred three year olds took to the track last weekend. Below I will take a shot at ranking the best 5 performances:

1) Bear's Chill in a N1X allowance at Woodbine on Sunday

For jockey Emile Ramsammy the highs and lows of being a rider came in back to back races on Sunday. A race after winning in dominating fashion aboard what appears to be a future Queen's Plate hopeful in Bear's Chill, Ramsammy was tossed from the back of Harmony Lane. Thankfully, Emile is going to be just fine and hopefully he is back aboard Bear's Chill for the Queenston Stakes.

I've been highlighting Bear's Chill all winter as one to watch for in the spring. He might have been the fastest two year old on the grounds last year and if his performance on Sunday is anything to go by, he looks to have come back even better this year. I wasn't particularly happy with how headstrong he was early in this one but it could simply be a case of Bear's Chill knowing he was way better than anyone else in the race. He fought off a game challenge from Alpha Bettor in the stretch and I really liked how he had plenty left to pull away from the field again in the deep stretch. Maybe most impressive was the gallop out as Bear's Chill took it upon himself to get a little extra work in and flew around the clubhouse turn. This race was run at the 7 furlongs of the Queenston Stakes and was fast enough (121 and 1) to win the first of the Queen's Plate Preps. If he continues to improve he will be too fast for anyone to catch! Lastly, you have to love how he pricks his ears right up in the early stages.

2) Oh Canada in the Woodstock

The Woodstock looked on paper to be a battle between some of the more established sprinters in the field like Madman Diaries; Apparently someone forgot to give Oh Canada the memo. He rallied from well back and in traffic to run by all the pace setters and win the Woodstock. Black N Beauty who was briefly on the Derby trail in January, did his best to try and run him down in the shadow of the wire but Oh Canada looked to have lots left and held on for the win.

I wrote a little about Oh Canada as a possible Plate prospect this winter here.

Being sired by Proud Citizen (2nd in the Derby) you could be forgiven for feeling like the Queenston or even Marine Stakes down the road would be a better fit for him. With the win in the Woodstock and the 2001 Prince of Wales winning team of Robert Tiller and Frank Di Giulio in his corner, you have to like his chances in those races even more now.

3) Check Your Soul

Charles Fipke and Roger Attfield have teamed up to win both a Plate and Breeders Stakes together with Not Bourbon and Perfect Shower respectively. They look to have another Canadian Triple Crown series competitor in Check Your Soul. Making his second lifetime start (he trailed at Gulfstream earlier in the year before doing a little running right at the end), Check Your Soul raced proffesionally throughout Friday's MSW at Keeneland. Early on he was in tight quarters but relaxed when asked and settled into a comfortable stalking position. As they went around the far turn he started to slowly make his move on the leaders. In the stretch he initially angled out to take a run at the leaders but when the leader moved well out he quickly transitioned down to the rail and just got up in time for the win. The final 2 and 1/2 furlongs was run in a very respectable 24 and 4 considering it was raining and the turf was "good" and Check Your Soul made up five lengths on that pace.

He is sired by Perfect Soul and out of an Unbridled mare so extra distance down the road should be little issue for him.

Unfortunately this video appears to have been misplaced on youtube. Here is the Equibase chart.

4) Blackstone Bay

Being a brother to Leonnatus Anteas it was just a matter of time before Blackstone Bay started to do some serious running. On Saturday he made up a lot of ground late and closed into what was a very good final furlong and a half by Eddington Limit (18 and 1) to just miss by a head. He is bred to run far longer than the 5.5 furlongs of Saturdays race and if he opts for a MSW instead of one of the Queen's Plate preps in his next race he is a virtual must bet. Mark Casse has a few other Queen's Plate hopefuls but don't be surprised if Blackstone Bay ends up being the best of them.

5) Queensplatekitten in the Blue Grass

I am going a little off the board with this selection and Red Ace, Black N Beauty and Abrianna, who all finished second have every right to feel slighted but...

I thought QPK ran really well to finish seventh in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes when you consider the crazy ride he had. QPK has never had much run early in the race and had been last or second last in the early stages in three of his four prior starts so you can imagine the dismay of anyone who had a win bet on him to see him pressing the pace right from the get go in the Blue Grass. Add-on to that, the horses who finished first, third and fourth were 12th, 10th and 9th in the early going and you can only wonder what might have been had he been allowed to run his race. As is he battled right into the stretch and finished seventh in a grade 1 race, not half bad.

Farmers Club

2011-04-18T23:11:00.000-04:00

Another day, another three year old with a terrific pedigree is entered in the lists. Farmers Club is one of 12 entered in the sixth race at Keeneland on Thursday, a Maiden Special Weight at seven furlongs for three year olds.

He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux, is trained by Jonathan Sheppard and owned by Augustin Stable.

Maybe more importantly though, he is sired by Smart Strike and out of Adorned, the dam of Queen's Plate and Prince of Wales Stakes winner Archer's Bay as well as the multiple stakes winner Nashinda. Augustin Stable could have one to keep an eye on in the lead up to the Queen's Plate this year with Farmer's Club and he gets his season underway Thursday.

It was a great weekend of racing and I plan on putting a wrap on it with another post tomorrow. With the Derby just three weeks away and the Woodbine three year old season getting underway, I hope to increase the activity level on the blog starting this week.

Name Dropping

2011-04-15T14:35:00.000-04:00

Woodbine and Keeneland's weekend entries are absolutley filled with 2011 Queen's Plate hopefuls and past Sovereign award nominees/winners:

Woodbine

Race 7 on Saturday

There are four Canadian breds in the field: Whippit, Dimes to Dollars, Blackstone Bay and I Want You To Know. Both Blackstone Bay and I Want You To Know did very little running in their first lifetime starts, which has been known to happen first time out. Blackstone Bay is a full brother to champion Leonnatus Anteas and I Want You To Know is a half brother to Sovereign nominee Vibank, so both have the potential to drastically improve second time out.

Woodstock Stakes

The Woodstock is often the first step on the way to the Plate for an entrant or two and Triple Crown winner Wando is among the past champions of the Woodstock. This years field is very deep looking on paper and the five Canadian breds entered (Top Pit Boss, Bear's Chill, Black N Beauty, Top Prospect and Oh Canada) will be in very tough against the open competition who are three of the top four monring line choices: Champion Madman Diaries, Bear Chocolated, Divine Music and Something Extra.

It is tricky to differentiate the Canadian breds entered and the one I like the most here, Bear's Chill, is cross-entered in an allowance race on Sunday and thus may not even run. Black N Beauty is making his first start on poly, so I will be taking a wait and see approach.

Race 7 on Sunday

A N1X open allowance at seven furlongs with nine entries. This is the allowance Bear's Chill is cross-entered in. He is part of a couple entry with stablemate Rockin Heat which is sure to drive down what was already going to be a low price. He looks to be the best horse in this field on paper so if you can stomach less than even money he is the play.

Jacques Cartier Stakes

The Jacques Cartier drew a competitive field of five, minus Hollywood Hit. Past Champion, Fatal Bullet and 2010 Sovereign nomineee Essence Hit Man headline the field but Signature Red, Sports Select and Cold Harbor are no slouches themselves. Essence Hit Man was recently the feature of a great article over on TripleDeadHeat. I'm looking forward to big things from the son of Speightstown this year; if he improves with age even a little bit he could be one the most talented horses at Woodbine.

Keeneland

If you took a quick glance at Keeneland's weekend entries and thought you had accidentally clicked on 'Woodbine' you could be forgiven as the entry lists are absolutely full of past, present and future Woodbine stars.

Race 2 on Saturday

I touted Abrianna as a horse to watch out for at Woodbine this spring but Roger Attfield must feel she is ready now as she is entered in a MSW at Keeneland. As I said earlier in the week Attfield has been terrific off the shelf this year and Abrianna has the pedigree of a superstar. Having said that, this is a very good MSW and she will have to run a very big one to get the win.

Race 4 on Saturday

This N1X allowance on Keeneland's polytrack features two Ontario breds with Queen's Plate aspirations. Red Ace races for Steve Margolis and Peachtree Stables; he broke his maiden at Fair Grounds this winter at his second asking after finishing behind the highly touted Bind in his first attempt. I'm not entirely sure if he will take to polytrack as well as he did dirt but if he does he will certainly be eyeing the Queen's Plate gate, later in the spring. Strike Oil, the Coronation Futurity winner, has come back with two less than great efforts at Gulfstream and Ocala in 2011. Hopefully he has not regressed as a three year old as he was one of the most interesting prospective juvenilles at Woodbine last year.

Grade 3 Shakertown Stakes

Recent Sovereign award winner Grand Adventure was last seen finishing well out of it in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint, a race won by fellow Shakertwon entrant Chamberlain Bridge. There is reason to be optimistic about his chances on Saturday though as he was severely compromised by his post position in the BCTS and last year he finished second in the Shakertwon ahead of Chamberlain Bridge. Unfortunately for Grand Adventure the winner of last years Shakertown, Silver Timber is back again as well.

Grade 2 Jenny Wiley Stakes

Another Sovereign award winner makes her 2011 debut at Keeneland as Miss Keller (Roger Attfield / Three Chimneys Racing) is the 4-1 second choice in the morning line for the Jenny Wiley. Miss Keller also last was an also ran in a Breeders Cup race, the Filly and Mare Turf but she should be good and fresh off a five month layoff and is liable to fire in the Jenny Wiley. Also running in the Jenny Wiley is the Sam-Son Farms / Mark Frostad up and comer, Forest Uproar. She came off the shelf and promptly put up a three race winning streak before sputtering a little in her last two. The change of scenery from Fair Grounds could do her enough good to be competitive here but she is facing tougher than she has ever faced and is 20-1 in the morning line accordingly.

Grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes

Depending on whos top 10 Plate hopefuls list you're looking at both Sensational Slam and Queen'splatekitten are at or near the top. On Saturday both will take a shot at picking up a Grade 1 win and a possible Kentucky Derby starting gate spot ahead of the Plate. Sensational Slam has the size to be a router his pedigree is all sprinting and I'm not entirely sure he is going to be at his best at 9 furlongs let alone 10 but Pletcher obviously feels he's deserving of a shot at stretching out. Queen'splatekitten on the other hand is a very good Queen's Plate prospect and he has the pedigree, class and affinity for polytrack to be dangerous in the Blue Grass. In his last start he was third in the Grade 3 Hallandale Beach, a race in which his closing running style was compromised by the easy lead given to Joe's Blazing Aaron. I am looking for a big race from QPK and I will have him in my exotics with Crimson China and Santiva.

Race 10 on Saturday

Sovereign award nominee for Champion turf female, Perfect Shirl and No Explaining another Attfield trainee who was close to being a nominee herself are making thier seasonal debuts on Saturday as well. They are the second and third choices in the morning line at 7/2 and 4/1 respectively and are both highly talented fillies. I like Perfect Shirl a little more of the two but you can't be faulted for going either direction. Indigo North an Ian Black trainee is also entered.

Race 6 on Sunday

The Ontario breds continue to show up on Sunday as a couple I have in my top 10 Queen's Plate watch list, Stunning Split and Imhotep are entered in this MSW. Stunning Split spent the winter at Fair Grounds and makes his first starter for trainer Neil Howard. He is by Awesome Again and out of the dam who gave us Quiet Jungle, Forest Uproar and Arrow's Conquest. The Queen's Plate wouldn't be the same without a Sam-Son Farms entry or two and he appears to be the SSF horse the most forward in his training at this point. Imhotep, trained by Todd Pletcher and the product of a pedigree that screams distance (Giants Causeway - Enchanted Woods / Woodman) is my pick to win this race. He was a very good second in his first lifetime start at Gulfstream and followed that up with a couple of nice works including a bullet at Churchill Downs this week.

Race 7

A second MSW at a 8.5 furlongs on the polytrack and this one drew in 4 Ontario breds: Speed Ring, Mr. Roessink, Kurogane and Signature Event. I already know I will be enamoured with Speed Ring as he is a half brother to last years Breeders Stakes third place runner and personal favourite of mine, Cognashene. Speed Ring is the first Sam-Son Farms male I have seen trained by Mark Frostad this year and as such it is a safe bet that they feel he is a classy individual. Of the other three Signature Event is the one I will be watching most closely on Sunday as he is sired by Awesome Again and his second dam produced six winners of more than $100,000. He is due to run a good race and live up to his pedigree.

Race 9

2009 Sovereign award nominee Hollinger makes his long awaited return to racing after coming back as a three year old far regressed from his incredible 4 for 4 two year old season. He makes the switch to turf here and if Roger Attfield has gotten him back to form he could be one to watch out for in 2011. I don't know if I want to bet him as the favourite off a ten month layoff though.

Oaklawn

Grade 1 Arkansas Derby

That's right, not done yet. Elite Alex, an Ontario bred many have been waiting on to run a big race takes one last shot at getting enough earnings for the Kentucky Derby field in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Even if he fails to make the Derby field he sure looks as if he will be a possible Queen's Plate favourite down the line. In the Arkansas Derby he will be going up against the runaway freight train, The Factor. I might be the only one in North America betting against The Factor on Saturday but I just don't see him carrying his blinding speed 9 furlongs if the track is playing anywhere near fair. Elite Alex will not be the only one coming with a late run though as Alternation and Sway Away should also be looking to pick up a piece if The Factor falters. Archarcharch is another one I will have in my exactor box as I love his pedigree as the races continue to get longer and I think you can chalk his sub-par performance in the Rebel up to a little bit of "the bounce".

It promises to be a great weekend of racing, good luck to everyone!

A few three year olds to watch out for

2011-04-11T18:12:00.003-04:00

Much like the beginning of the Gulfstream meet, Woodbine's opening couple of months is heavily loaded with three year old races: Maiden, N1X allowances and Stakes can be found on nearly every weekend card. Furthermore there are more three year olds at Woodbine right now then there will be at any other time this year so these races will typically draw large fields of 8 to 12. What this means for the horseplayer, is that if you want to turn a positive ROI on a Saturday or Sunday at Woodbine you better be prepared to pick the right three year olds. Below I've listed 4 that I will be looking to win with, when they show up on a Woodbine race card, hopefully in the near future.

Majestic Red

I am slightly hesitant in picking her of late as she shows a stoppage in her published workout regime but if she shows up with no wraps on and looking healthy, she is an absolute don't miss. Last year she won at first asking in a MSW for two year old fillies at six furlongs on the poly but was disqualified for bumping and cutting off another horse.  The interference took its toll on her as she should have won by open lengths and just got up to win by a nose before being DQ'ed. This filly races for connections that know how to win Sid Attard / Norseman Racing and Attard has always been good at winning off the shelf.

Her pedigree is also outstanding; she is sired by Rahy and out of Highland Mood who was 4 for 4 before retiring. Highland Mood has already produced Clear Lake a 4 time winner of more than $200,000.  The best part is her form line will show the 6th place finish and if she races on a day with lots of general public money she could slide under the radar and go off at 3/4/5 to 1.

Enduring Star

Despite being a maiden after four races, Enduring Star is still a very good play in his first race at Woodbine for a number of reasons:

He has run a very difficult schedule going from a MSW to the Cup and Saucer to the Coronation Futurity and showing up this year in a Gulfstream Park MSW.  In that Gulfstream MSW he ran a fast closing third and the horse directly ahead of him, Imhotep a Todd Pletcher trainee is one of my favourites for the Queen's Plate. Lastly in the Coronation he did all the running in a 9 furlong two year old race in what was only his third start and unfortunately hit the lead too early to hold off Strike Oil's late charge.

I doubt you will get much of a price on Enduring Star but watch for him to be in one of the first couple two turn MSW's and if you get a price you're comfortable with take a shot.

Abrianna

If you have been paying attention to Roger Attfield's stable this winter you will have noticed that his horses are firing nearly every time off the layoff. Mobilizer, Smart Sting, Ernfold and Perfect Afleet are just a few to finish 1 or 2 in their seasonal bows. Abrianna is a Stronach Stables filly under the care of Roger Attfield and is currently training at Payson Park where all of the above spent their winter training. She shows a winters worth of progressive training and should be ready to run first time out in 2011.

Abrianna is the product of a terrific pedigree being sired by Lemon Drop Kid and out of the same tail female family as Poetically, Primaly, Citronnade and Whiskey Wisdom. If she waits for a two turn MSW at Woodbine I will be looking to play her if she is in the 3/4/5 to 1 range.

Bear's Chill

If you've been following the blog since last fall you know I have been high on this son of Artie Schiller right from the start.   His maiden win last year was huge and he looks to have come back just fine as a three year old after doing all the racing in an AOC at Gulfstream before getting caught late and finishing fourth (the other pace setters finished 7th, 8th and 10th). If he elects for a N1X allowance prior to the three year old Stake races he is a must not miss.

He had the second fastest move at Woodbine at 5 furlongs on Saturday.

American Tracks Continue to Showcase Canadian Bred Talent

There is a distinct Queen's Plate feel to this weekends two Derby preps as Sensational Slam, Queen's Plate Kitten and Elite Alex will be taking part in the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby respectively.

Furthermore Joyful Victory and Marketing Mix both had wins at Oaklawn and Keenland respectively as the Woodbine Oaks field could see its fair share of American trained Canadian bred entrants as well.

With so many Canadian breds making an impact in the United States this year it might be time to do a roundup later this week.

And Here We Go.............

2011-03-30T18:13:00.000-04:00

Saturday April 2nd sees the return of thoroughbreds to Woodbine with a ten race card highlighted by the Debut Stakes. It is great to see a list of Woodbine entries over on Equibase.com and even better to see some familiar names in the entries list'. A lot of the stars of last year are still in training and it promises to be a terrific racing meet.

Saturday Entries

The late pick 4 has two claiming races sandwiched around the two features for the day: The Debut Stakes and a MSW for three year olds at five furlongs.

The Debut Stakes should have Drunken Love and Arepeatee favoured but in the large field of 11 there should be someone to like for everyone. Last year there was a clear bias to winter raced horses in the first couple of weeks of the meet so be sure to take a close look at the PP's for that angle.

The MSW is an open bred five furlong affair. There are three Canadian breds entered, two of which, are Queen's Plate Nominated in Ice Pilot and I Want You To Know. It's not until the third weekend of the meet that two turn, MSW's are carded for three year olds, meaning these five furlong affairs can almost be viewed as paid workouts for some of the QP nominated three year olds with routing pedigrees. I Want You To Know is out of the same female tail family as the great Langfuhr. The non QP nominated Canadian bred, Bijoux Bon (who is out of the Terry Jordan stable) may be a more attractive wagering proposition in this one. I Want You To Know (Schickedanz / Keogh) and Ice Pilot (Sam-Son Farms / Frostad) are from traditional powerhouse Woodbine connections and will definitely be two to keep in mind when making your Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge team.

Speaking of...

Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge

There have been a couple of changes over on the QPFC website of late: A new link on Queensplate.com as well as an announced entry deadline on the challenge website. It is QPFC time of year so be sure to keep an eye on their site as it looks as if another year of contest fun is on the horizon.

Website

I have an article in the works entitled "five to watch for" where I will shed some light on five thoroughbreds I will be wagering on as soon as they appear in the entries list'. Be sure to check back for that and many more as I will get back into handicapping mode now that Woodbine is back!

Lastly, Bowman's Causeway is one of many expected to be entered in Sunday's Florida Derby which is the feature of a terrific weekend full of racing down there. I will have more on that tomorrow.

Weekend Recap + the Canadian breds are taking over Louisiana Derby Day

2011-03-21T17:23:00.000-04:00

I am sure that I am the last person in Canada to report on this but if somehow you missed it, Chantal Sutherland will now be racing in California year round. Chantal was one of my favourites and is one of the most underrated stake race riders out there. She flourished last year at Woodbine leading the meet with 18 stake wins. Good luck Chantal.

Keith at TripleDeadHeat speculated that Omar Moreno, Luis Contreras, Justin Stein and Emma-Jayne Wilson should receive more mounts as a result. I am thinking that the biggest beneficiary may be Jono "Truf Magic" Jones as Chantal had positioned herself as the - at worst - third option for the Woodbine grass races and the reliable Jones could find himself getting the majority of her abdicated turf stars.

Bear's Chill + Bowmans Causeway

I have made it no secret that I am very high on Bear's Chill and I thought he ran a very good 4th at Gulfstream yesterday. He ran on or near the lead throughout what was a very fast pace - on a turf course that appeared to be reversing recent form back to a closer favouring track - and made a good move in the stretch before getting caught by a three pack of closers. For the first time racing in four months it was a very good race and if he can relax a little more, he should win next time out.

Bowman's Causeway used a one turn mile allowance race at Gulfstream as a workout and ran into two Pletcher trainees with bright futures in Cal Nation and Dance City. Bowman's Causeway is a big fella and was always going to be in tough at the mile distance as he has the breeding and shape of a distance router. The race was most likely being used as a stepping stone for one of the major Derby preps and I have a suspicion that he may try the polytrack of Keenland in the Blue Grass Stakes or stick with dirt in the Illinois Derby.

I am working on top 10 Queen's Plate and Woodbine Oaks lists right now and both Bear's Chill and Bowman's Causeway should figure prominently in the Plate list.

The Factor, Blind Luck and Havre de Grace

The Factor ran away from the field in the Rebel Stakes this weekend and has moved to the top of many Kentucky Derby favourite's list'. 8.5 furlongs is usually attainable for most sprinters and I will be waiting for a 9 furlong result before moving him into my top 5: Uncle Mo, Mucho Macho Man, Dialed In, Stay Thirsty and Jaycito. On the positive side, The Factor looked untouchable, ran a fast final sixteenth and galloped out very strongly. On the negative side, the pace was completely uncontested, the track was speed biased all day and 10 furlongs is a vast difference from 8.5.

Blind Luck and Havre de Grace raced against one another for the fifth time on Saturday in the Azeri Stakes. Havre de Grace ran what might have been her best race ever and finished well ahead of Blind Luck who was in turn well ahead of the rest of the field. The more I watch Blind Luck run this year the more I am convinced that 8.5 is too short for her. She should fare much better in the summer in the 9 and 10 furlong races for fillies and mares. Also is it just me? Or do Blind Luck's string of second place finishes further validate how special Zenyatta was, that 19 times in a row she managed to catch the Havre de Grace of her races. Speaking of, Havre de Grace looks to have really physically matured following the winter layoff and she could be primed to be the filly to be reckoned with in the filly and mare handicap division.

Louisiana Derby Day

The Louisiana Derby Day program at Fair Grounds on Saturday, features six stake races and is headlined by the $1million Louisiana Derby for three year olds. Of the six stake races, Canadian breds feature prominently in four of them. Forest Uproar, Giant's Tomb, Inglorious and Elite Alex will be carrying the flag for Canadian breeding operations in the Bayou Handicap, Grade 2 Mervin H. Muniz Memorial Handicap, Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby respectively.

Forest Uproar has been racing well since returning from a year long layoff in October. She had her three race winning streak snapped in the Allen Lacombe Memorial Handicap but the race was run so slow it's hard to not just strike a line right through the race. The Sam-Son Farms / Mark Frostad filly will try another ungraded stake race in the Bayou Handicap. A good result in the Bayou should put her on track for the Graded Stake race circuit of the summer.

Bayou Handicap Entries

Giant's Tomb successfully returned to racing in an AOC on the turf of Fair Grounds after not racing since the Queen's Plate last year. He was coming on strong at the end of the Queen's Plate and appears to relish every bit of distance so the 9 furlong Grade 2 Mervin Muniz should be no problem despite it being only his second start back. This is Giant's Tomb first graded stakes race and he will be facing a good field including Smart Bid who was recently 2nd in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. The son of Awesome Again is the second longest choice in the morning line at 12-1 but he should fit in with this kind of competition soon if not on Saturday.

Grade 2 Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap

Elite Alex is a Canadian bred, who is American owned and trained. He has impressed many Derby trail followers with an allowance race runner-up that was nothing short of remarkable and a third place finish in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. He is very live in the Louisiana and could be headed to the derby if he can crack the top20 graded earnings list. If he is a Derby calibre horse you have to figure he would come up to Woodbine for a shot at the $1 million Queen's Plate down the road. He will be up against Mucho Macho Man and Machen in the Louisiana Derby but his running style lends itself to the lengthy Fair Grounds stretch.

Louisiana Derby

Inglorious made a huge splash in the late stages of Woodbine's 2010 meet with back to back stake wins. Subsequently she was made the Queen's Plate winterbook favourite and finished second behind the excellent Kathmanblu in the Rachel Alexandra stakes at Fair Grounds. Kathmanblu has opted to skip the Fair Grounds Oaks in favour of the Ashland during Keenlands meet which, means Donver Stables / Josie Carroll / Chantal Sutherland and Inglorious will be the favourite in the Fair Ground Oaks. Inglorious did well in her first lifetime start on dirt and she has every reason to improve in her second start on dirt/off a layoff. It would be very nice to see an Ontario bred in the Kentucky Oaks so hopefully Inglorious continues to develop.

Fair Ground Oaks

The Saturday card at program is really, really good and if the Canadian breds do not pique your interest there are plenty of others worth tuning into HPI for:

Might a full sister to last years Breeders Cup Classic winner, Blame makes he second lifetime start. She was a good second first time out and looks to be one of the safest chalk bets of the day.

Bind will try to stretch out and stay undefeated after posting a sub 1:09 six furlong maiden win a month ago at Fair Grounds. He is listed at 2 to 5! in the morning line and is one the buzz three year olds. His connections have stated that they will not rush him to make the Derby but he certainly looks like a promising prospect for the big summer races.

Mission Impazible and Giant Oak lead a strong field in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap.

Bear's Chill, Withdrawal and Miami Deco racing later today at Gulfstream

2011-03-20T12:21:00.001-04:00

A little later this afternoon a couple of potential future three year old stars and a three year old Canadian Classic winner of last year are both racing at Gulfstream Park.

Bear's Chill + Withdrawal

The son of Artie Schiller and 8+ length maiden winner at Woodbine last year gets his first start of 2011 under his belt later this afternoon in an AOC at Gulfstream. Bear's Chill is one of my top 3 Queen's Plate prospects and it will be interesting to see how he fares first time off the shelf. His competition includes not only stablemate Rockin Heat (one of the top juvenilles at Woodbine last year) but also the Mark Casse trained Withdrawal. Casse entered three in the Coronation Futurity last year: Strike Oil, Enduring Star and Withdrawal. Strike Oil and Enduring Star have both hit the board in Florida races this year (third for Strike Oil in the Ocala Breeders Championship and third for Enduring Star in a turf maiden race) and Withdrawal will try and follow suit. Of the two I prefer Bear's Chill as he has been training very well all winter and had the kind of "WOW" race last year that leads me to believe he could be something special.

The scratch of the Chad Brown trained Beachcombing really opened up this race and you could potentially see the Bear Stable / Baker entry as the favourite by post time. Lauburu will certainly take some money as well as he was once considered a potential Derby horse and is a half brother to Ashado.

Race 8 Gulfstream Park

Miami Deco

Last Year, after winning the third leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, the Breeders Stakes, Miami Deco was nominated to a couple of Graded stakes in the States but wound up never making it back to the race track in 2010. He will get a shot against American competition today in a N1X allowance at 9 furlongs on the turf. Miami Deco seemed to relish the distance of the Breeders and 9 panels shouldn't be a huge problem for him coming off the shelf. His trainer Brian Lynch won a nice race on the turf at Gulfstream yesterday and usually fares well with first off the layoff starters.

Race 9 at Gulfstream

Miami Deco is the latest in a long list of good three year olds who appear to be headed back to Woodbine in the near future and the Handicap division looks primed to be far more competitive than it was last year.

I am hoping to recap the weekend later tonight.

QPK, Joyful Victory, Uncle Mo, PrePeg and I for one have had enough of Santa Anita

2011-03-13T03:55:00.001-04:00

Despite an absolute crawl of a pace, Queen'splatekitten still managed to close very well in the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream and wound up finishing second. He came home in a very respectable 23 seconds and should be at the top of everyone's Queen's Plate watch list. Speed held all day on the turf course and when Joe's Blazing Aaron ran the first half mile in an uncontested 49 and 1 seconds it was always going to be a near impossible task for QPK to catch him in the stretch. I will speculate that QPK heads towards the Grade 1 Blue Grass stakes at Keenland next - he has already shown a proclivity for polytrack at Woodbine - and could still wind up in the Derby prior to a run at the Queen's Plate.

Down at Oaklawn, Joyful Victory made a successful return to racing in the Honeybee Stakes winning by nearly nine lengths. She was last seen finishing fifth in the Breeders Cup Juvenille Fillies which followed a third place finish in the Grade 1 Frizette. Joyful Victory now races out of the Larry Jones stable and immediately moves to near the top of the Kentucky Oaks list with this dominating win. Between Inglorious, Joyful Victory and Roxy Gap there is the potential for three Graded stakes placed fillies to be entered in the Woodbine Oaks later this year which, would be three more than were entered last year.

Eight weeks till the Kentucky Derby!

Uncle Mo, PrePeg and Bret...Watch Me Go? win the three preps this weekend.

Uncle Mo was amazing winning the timely writer.  He faced next to no competition so it would be easy to be not overly impressed with his win but make no mistake, he was amazing. He ran a mile one second slower than top east coast older horse Tackleberry - he has now won three graded stakes in a row at gulfstream - and ran equally as fast - 47 seconds - in the last six furlongs. And... he was never pushed by another race horse nor hit once with the whip. Uncle Mo is for real and I for one am hoping he breaks the drought and wins the triple crown.

Premier Pegasus was a dominating winner of the San Felipe at Santa Anita. He perfectly stalked the absurd pace set by Runflatout and Albergatti before taking command around the turn for home and running away on the field in the stretch.  I was very impressed with how professionally he stalked the pace after contesting the lead in his four previous starts. For PrePeg the Santa Anita Derby will likely be his last stop before the Kentucky Derby.  He has the breeding to be a serious derby threat and is in my top 10 Derby contenders. The runner up was the wayward Breeders Cup Juvenille runner Jaycito. It was Jaycito's first start since the BCJ and I was very impressed with how professionally he ran. He has the right pedigree and running style for the Derby and I am very happy to have a couple KDFW pool 1 wagers on him.

The Tampa Bay Derby was the third major Kentucky Derby prep on Saturday and Brethren, the star of the show, came up a little short. Watch Me Go proved to be the beneficiary of Brethren's early move to the lead as he came on in the stretch to score his first graded stakes victory. For Watch Me Go I have a feeling this may be the highlight of his career as he had a dream trip against a weak field. For Brethren his next start should tell us whether or not he has learned the dangers of making the lead too early. I did like the way Brethren re-rallied after being passed and he could ultimately thrive at ten furlongs but the colt was clearly headstrong in this start and he will need to relax in future starts if he wants to improve.

Before wrapping up this post, I feel obliged to mention that I, for one, have had enough of Santa Anita. Being born and raised in Aurora, Ontario, it should come as little surprise that I am a fan of Frank Stronach and Adena Springs but I refuse to wager on Santa Anita dirt track races in the near future and... it has nothing to do with the ridiculous takeout increase.  What I have had enough of is the ridiculously fast fraction times in every race on their cement speedway. The number of fatalities varies depending on which comment you believe but consistently it is being reported that the number of on-track fatalities at Santa Anita far exceeds any preconceived notion of normal.  On Saturday, in the Santa Margarita, Always A Princess nearly became the latest victim.  Go back and watch any race replay of a race on the Santa Anita main track and the one thing you will find is that the first fraction consistently goes in the 22 to 23 neighbourhood. That is completely absurd! It is borderline insane for anyone to expect a race horse to run seven furlongs in sub 1:20 or to run six furlongs - let alone a three year old! - in sub 1:07.  Both have already happened at Santa Anita. I can't take the times of Santa Anita seriously and thus there is no point in betting on their product. Someone slow them down before PETA gets involved.

Congrats to Chantal Sutherland, Golden Moka and Mobilizer return this week

2011-03-08T21:24:00.002-05:00

If you missed the Big Cap at Santa Anita on Saturday you missed one of the most eventful Grade 1 races of recent memory. Game on Dude - a game fouth in the Belmont Stakes last year - emerged victorious for trainer Bob Baffert and Woodbine jockey Chantal Sutherland. Three horses - Twirling Candy, Game on Dude and Setsuko - came together after straightening out in the stretch and a sequence of bumps ensued. Setsuko emerged from the bumping with the lead but Game on Dude, miraculously, had a little left in the tank and under the brilliant guiding of Sutherland would get up just in time to win by a nose.

The internet has been abuzz with many different opinions about who was to blame for the incident. I find myself agreeing with Cangamble (http://cangamble.blogspot.com/2011/03/chantal-sutherland-not-only-not-guilty.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2FzJEw+%28Canadian+Gambling+News+and+Issues%29) In that, it appears to me that Chantal and Game on Dude did a great job of staying in their path and deserved to be left up.

One thing is for certain, with Chantal winning the Big Cap following on the heels of Omar Moreno's Eclipse Award, the Woodbine jock colony is making waves this winter.

Golden Moka and Mobilizer

Two of the top Canadian three year olds from 2010 are in action at Gulfstream Park this week:

Golden Moka the Prince of Wales Stakes winner is racing in the feature of Wednesday's card a $62,500 AOC at one mile. He was apparently under the weather this winter and may need a race to sharpen up. If he progresses even a little from his 2010 campaign he should be competitive in the major graded stake races all year long. On Wednesday he is in very tough as he will be facing the Stronach Stables / Reade Baker Hunter's Bay who came back from a lengthy layoff with a 102 Beyer figure in his first race this year. Caixa Electronica was third in the Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship in his last start and should also be a serious consideration in this race.

Entries

Mobilizer was a game second to Big Red Mike in the Plate Trial last year before shutting it down after a dissappointing effort in the Queen's Plate. He has been training well on the Payson Park turf all winter and will resume his racing career on Thursday at Gulfstream in a NW2 allowance at one mile on the turf. Roger Attfield has always done better than average off layoffs and with the lengthy uninterrupted training session Mobilizer had, along with Javier Castellano in the irons and he could be live at a good price.

Entries

This weekend the Kentucky Derby trail really starts to ramp up: Jaycito, Runflatout and Comma to the Top will all be among a talented field in the San Felipe stakes, Brethren runs in the Tampa Bay Derby and Uncle Mo makes his long awaited return to racing in Gulfstream's Timely Writer.

Lots to get to... Queen's Plate Nominations / Winterbook odds, Woobine Oaks nominees, Kentucky Oaks nominees, Stakes Schedule, Derby Preps and Canadian breds in action

2011-03-04T16:06:00.000-05:00

A very busy week as the Woodbine season continues to inch closer.

Queen's Plate Nominees / Winterbook Odds / Fantasy Challenge / Oaks Nominees / Stakes Schedule

A major press release I have been eagerly awaiting appeared on Woodbine's website yesterday.

http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Woodbine/RaceTrackNewsPage.aspx?NewsId=44e3dac6-4055-41db-bed5-6cb77f4469f8

In the release it is indicated that the Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge will be getting underway a little later in the month, the winterbook odds and the full list of Queen's Plate nominees.

The QPFC is a terrific contest that usually offers significant cash rewards so be sure to keep an eye on their website the next couple of weeks for a start date announcement.

The winterbook odds were compiled by Adam Hickman of Woodbine. Unlike the Kentucky Derby future wager pools there is no equivalent relating to the Queen's Plate so the winterbook odds are largely for entertainment purposes only. Having said that, Mr. Hickman appears to have done a terrific job as I can't really find too much to disagree with and I love the fact that he instilled the filly Inglorious as the favourite; the lone change that I would have, is Hothersal up higher than Pender Harbour and Sensational Slam but I can understand why he is not. As in years prior there are a few owners, who for whatever reason, chose not to early nominate. Unfortunately that means their horses will not be included in the contest, nor were they included in the winterbook odds. Bear's Chill for example. The top 5 are:

Inglorious 4-1
Queen'splatekitten 5-1
Bowman's Causeway 6-1
Sensational Slam 8-1
Pender Harbour 10-1

The full list of Queen's Plate and Woodbine Oaks nominees with past performances can be found on the Woodbine website. I will have a more detailed post, looking at a few of the lesser knowns, who may have a bright future, soon.

Woodbine was not the only enterprise to release their list of nominees for a major stakes in the past couple of days as the full list of Kentucky Oaks nominees has been relesed as well. Notable Canadian breds include: Joyful Victory, Roxy Gap, Grand Style and Inglorious. All four are sure to be on the first three year old power rankings in a couple of weeks.

The full Woodbine stakes schedule was also released a week ago. There are a few changes such as the reduction of purse money in the Northern Dancer and Pattison International as well as the discontinuation of the Debut Stakes but the schedule is largely unchanged from last year. Of note: The Queen's Plate day card will again also feature the graded Highlander and Singspiel Stakes, the Plate is at the end of June this year, the Plate Trial and Woodbine Oaks will be run on June 5th, the first stakes for three year old fillies is the Star Shoot Stakes April 9th and the first for three year olds is the Woodstock April 16th.

Canadian Breds Racing This Weekend

Sensational Slam the 8-1 fourth choice in the Winterbook makes his return to racing. He started his career with two wins in two year old stakes at Woodbine before getting left behind in the Grade 3 With Anticipation at Saratoga. That race was full of class with the recent Fountain of Youth winner Soldat, El Camino Real winner Silver Medallion and recent Gulfstream allowance winner Powahatan County so Sensational Slam can be forgiven the clunker he put in that day. He is sired by Grand Slam and may find the turn back in distance of the Freddy Capossela Stakes more to his liking.

Over at Fair Grounds on Saturday, a couple of Ontario bred fillies are entered in a MSW. Coastal Tide goes for trainer Malcolm Pierece and owner Richard Lister. Kristy's Minstrel makes her debut for Malcolm Pierce and owner Windways Farms; she has been training very well and may be a live longshot.

Farther south at Gulfstream Park, two Queen's Plate nominated colts make their seasonal debuts: Enduring Star and Imhotep. Enduring Star is back for Mark Casse and West Point Thoroughbreds, making his first start since last years Coronation Futurity and will hopefully fare better than stablemate Strike Oil did in his first start on dirt. The Todd Pletcher trained, Zayat Stables owned first timer Imhotep is the product of a formidable pedigree (sired by Giant's Causeway out of a stakes placed Woodman mare) and looks to be very live at 6-1. A win at first asking, at nine furlongs, on the turf, would make him an almost auto pick in the QPFC.

The 9th race on Sunday, an AOC, features a couple of four year old fillies who could be stakes racers at Woodbine this summer: Bodua and Embur's Song. Bodua has run well this winter for trainer Michael Doyle and looks like she could be a factor in some of the turf stake races at Woodbine in the summer. Embur's Song was the Pletcher trained tour de force of last years filly triple tiara series. She is making her second start off the layoff and moving to turf.

Derby Trail

During Derby future wager pool 1, I made a 5 horse $1 exacta box bet with Uncle Mo, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, Stay Thirsty and Jaycito. Two of those five are in action on Saturday: Dialed In found a 9 furlong allowance race at Gulfstream to use as a prep for the Florida Derby and Stay Thirsty gets his 2011 season underway with a start in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. Anyone else make any future pool wagers?

2010 Queens Plate Power Rankings

2011-02-28T23:56:00.001-05:00

With the Queen's Plate less than four months out, it is time to take a first look at who the top 8 to keep an eye on are. In coming weeks I will stretch it out to ten and when Woodbine gets rolling in April I will have a seperate list for the fillies. The nominations for the Plate have not been made public yet but I will post them as soon as they are. Plenty of these on the initial list have already begun their sophmore seasons at various American racetracks. With the Plate being 120 days away the list is obviously highly volatile but here are my top 10:

1) Hothersal

There have been 12 editions since Archers Bay won the Queen's Plate for Eugene Melnyk. This year he may have his best shot to end that streak with a very impressive recent Gulfstream winner in Hothersal. While his maiden breaker was an impressive win, his first time out runner-up may be a better indication of his class moving forward this spring; he ran huge and the horse that just beat him, Data Link, has come back to win his next two starts. He has terrific breeding for the Plate being sired by Smart Strike and out of the same tail female family as Rags to Riches, Peeping Fawn and Jazil. He was entered in an allowance Saturday at Gulfstream and scratched which, is a cause for concern but assuming it was just due to the speed bias or something similar he is my early Queen's Plate favourite.

2) Bowman's Causeway

After breaking his maiden at nine furlongs at Gulfstream, Bowman's Causeway ran a terrific fourth place in the Fountain of Youth on Saturday. He was forced to steady just as he was accelerating and it ultimately cost him any chance of winning but he was a competitive fourth against the bias, coming off a maiden win. He is a very big horse and looks to be able to run all day. I would imagine he will take a serious run at the Kentucky Derby in the coming months and with the initial Woodbine 3 year old stakes all one turn he may not try the polytrack until June.

3) Bear's Chill

For me, there was no more impressive maiden two year old winner last year than Bear's Chill. He ran huge and won by eight plus lengths under a hand ride. It will be interesting to see how he has progressed over the winter but a couple of on-paper-good workouts at Palm Meadows leaves me eagerly anticipating his three year old debut. He is a son of miler Artie Schiller and should excel at some of the 7 to 8.5 furlong stakes like the Marine and Queenston. Whether or not he will ultimately get the 10 furlongs is still up for debate but there is plenty of class in both sides of his pedigree and class has been known to overcome distance concerns before.

4) Queen'splatekitten

The other visually impressive maiden winner last year was the Brian Lynch trained, Ken and Sarah Ramsey owned Queen'splatekitten. He certainly appeared to be aptly named after circling the field and opening up in a two turn maiden win in December. Since then he has been sold to Mill House and moved into Todd Pletcher's Stable. He picked up a N1X win at Gulfstream and looks headed towards a start on the Turfway or Keenland synthetic in an attempt to earn enough graded money to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. In his only career loss he idled at the far back for the first six furlongs before passing ten horses in the final half mile and was unlucky to not catch the Sam-Son Farms runner, Thespian's Fate. He is sired by Kitten's Joy and out of a Wild Again mare so there is every reason to believe that ten furlongs will bring out the best in him.

5) Bigstormbrewin

Fifth place on the initial rankings for an unraced three year old? Yep. That is what happens when you are the half brother to consecutive Queen's Plate winner Eye of the Leopard and Queen's Plate runner-up, Hotep. He is sired by Stormy Atlantic and should be better suited to the polytrack than his brothers were, which is a scary proposition. He has been training progressively at Fair Grounds and may get a start in at the Louisiana racetrack before returning to Woodbine for the serious races in May/June.

6) Inglorious

She was terrific last year winning both her starts, both in stakes and appears to have gotten even better over the winter if her performance in the Rachel Alexandra stakes is anything to go by. If you missed the race, check out the replay in my last post as she was flying late and nearly caught the Kentucky Oaks favourite Kathmanblu. She seems to get better as races go on indicating she could be a factor in not only the 9 furlong Woodbine Oaks but maybe like Milwaukee Appeal and Roan Inish in recent years, a major player in the 10 furlong Plate. She is out of the Northern Dancer line sire Hennessy and both her dam (Noble Strike) and second dam (Green Noble) were Woodbine stake performers.

7) Elite Alex

In three starts Elite Alex has: Won first time out at Delaware, finished second to possible Rebel Stakes favourite Alternation despite one of the worst possible trips and recently was third in another very wide trip at Oaklawn in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. He appears to have all sorts of class and could be firmly on the Derby trail with another top 3 in the Rebel Stakes. His pedigree is light on turf influences being sired by Afleet Alex and out of an Unbridled mare and it remains to be seen whether he could transition to polytrack but his back class could be enough to overcome any surface. He is an Ontario bred and thus eligible for the Queen's Plate but unlike Hothersal, Queen'splatekitten and Bowman's Causeway his campaign has not made any intentions regarding the Queen's Plate known yet.

8) Roxy Gap

She was entered in the Davona Dale on Saturday before scratching the day of the race. Assuming she hasn't suffered a setback she is certainly the other filly to keep an eye on. She was third in the Grade 3 Old Hat at Gulfstream in January in her first race on dirt, first time off a layoff and was closing late at a distance shorter than her prior win. Essentially, she should definitely move forward off that start when she hits the track next. With the first stakes races at Woodbine only five weeks away it will be interesting to see if her connections give her one more race at Gulfstream or Keenland before bringing her home in the lead up to the Woodbine Oaks. Being sired by Indian Charlie you would be justified in questioning her ability to get the 10 furlongs of the Plate but her broodmare sire is Saint Ballado who proved his ability to sire classic distance winners with Saint Liam and Ashado.