By Lars Larson
NW and national radio host,

The Northwest Nonsense

For the last two weeks, I’ve told you about the rape and murder of a five-year-old girl…and the double life sentence imposed on her killer.

Sahara Dwight died 16 years ago, but now her killer, Dustin Wallace, may walk out of prison decades earlier than the sentence handed down by a Judge.

The family of Sahara worked hard get the word out to the public about this outrage.

Last week, the parole board put off any release of her killer at least 10 years.

I count that as a win. But he’s supposed to be behind bars two times his life.

Here’s where I see the losses for anyone who cares about Justice.

The people that citizens pay to run Oregon’s prison system now see criminals as “Clients” and even call them “adults in custody”.

Then consider what the parole board did. As documented by journalist Pamela Fitzsimmons, at its hearing, the board instructed those who testified to only refer to the 5-year-old girl by her initials….S.D….even though her name is well known to the public.

I’ll remind you that when police deal with crimes like kidnapping, they tell the family to say the victim’s name.

Criminals like Dustin Wallace depersonalize their victims. Now, the prison system of Oregon does everything it can to cater to criminals while reducing their victims to a set of initials.

What does that tell you about criminal sympathetic parole board members and the democrat governors who have chosen them over the last 40 years.

That’s the Rose City Rap. Join me at noon on KXL for 4 hours of Honestly provocative talk. I’m Lars Larson

The post Lars Larson: For God’s sake, SAY HER NAME! first appeared on Oregon Catalyst.

By Taxpayers Association of Oregon Foundation,

A 2024 report showed that the Blazer arena, Moda Center, needed $500 million in upgrades.  Now that request has been boosted to $880 million.  All of these requests are being asked from taxpayers throughout Oregon, 99% of whom do not attend Blazer games.   The State Legislature has passed bills that open taxpayer funding for the private Hillsboro Hops baseball park and also for the Portland Major League Baseball stadium if Portland is awarded a team.  For a state in debt, it has shown incredible generosity for more and more private sports entertainment activities.

The post Blazer ask goes from $500M to $880M first appeared on Oregon Catalyst.

By Taxpayers Association of Oregon Foundation,

Gallup has revealed new data on the public’s trust of the media and it continues to get worse.   As of 2025, it has hit a record low for the lowest number of people who trust the media by a measure of a great deal/fair amount.  A trusted free-press in essential in an open society.

The post Chart: Trust in media hits record lows first appeared on Oregon Catalyst.

By Jason Williams
Oregon250.com
Website dedicated to celebrating America’s 250th anniversary.

In 1776, the popular 7-up soda pop ran a 50-state version of their pop cans.   Each can feature a different state to honor.  Each can also hold one of the 50-part puzzle pieces, which, if stacked as a pyramid, showcased a secret image.  People did not know what the image was until they collected enough cans.  In this case, the secret image was Uncle Sam.  At the top of a pyramid was a can that read, “United We Stand”.  It was a symbol of American unity and togetherness, which was strong in 1776.

Families had fun collecting as many cans as they could.

Back in 1776, there was no internet to spoil the secret image.

We hope all Americans relive the fun by finding ways to celebrate their country.

The post In 1776, 7-Up soda did this ingenious celebration first appeared on Oregon Catalyst.

By Economist Dr. Eric Fruits,

Oregon’s Office of Economic Analysis puts out four economic forecasts a year. Usually, the changes from one quarter to the next are modest—updated tracking numbers, minor revisions, the kind of thing only budget watchers and weirdos like me pay any attention to.

Three months isn’t very long. So, quarter-to-quarter forecast changes are fairly ho-hum affairs. Looking for changes is a bit like those “spot the difference” cartoons that used to be in the Sunday paper’s comics section.

But this time—from the February forecast to the May forecast—it is different. Quite a bit different. And the biggest reason is a war in the Middle East that nobody in Oregon has much control over, but should remind us we live in a great big world where events abroad can affect us in our tiny northwest corner of the country.

Back in February, the mood was cautious but improving

The March forecast—actually released in early February—carried something the state’s economists hadn’t had much of lately: a degree of optimism. And by “degree,” I really mean “a tiny bit.”

Oregon had been losing jobs throughout most of 2025. Year-over-year job losses outside a recession are unusual in this state. The March forecast said the losses should start turning around. The baseline projected employment would grow about 0.6% in 2026, and unemployment would hover around 5.3%. The recession odds were 20%.

The General Fund was tracking toward a projected ending balance of just under $200 million. Sure, that’s a positive number, but darn close to zero, considering the size of the General Fund—$35.7 billion in revenues for the 2025-27 biennium.

The big question heading into 2026 was whether the national economy—which had grown at surprisingly strong rates through the middle of 2025—would carry that momentum into Oregon’s labor market. That was the question the March forecast was sitting with, noting “open questions remain” regarding “labor market malaise” and inflation.

Then Iran

About three weeks after the March forecast was released (remember, it was released in February), the United States and Israel commenced military operations against Iran. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—which handles a large share of global oil shipping—was severely curtailed. Oil prices spiked.

Crude oil, which had averaged around $69 a barrel through 2025, is now more than $100. Gasoline at the pump—which had actually been below year-earlier levels in January, around $2.80 a gallon—crossed $4.50 by early May. Gas is now about $5.40 a gallon in Portland.

Lower- and middle-income households feel that most. Fuel spending takes a bigger share of their budgets. They can’t easily cut back on gas. So they cut back on other things. And the businesses that serve them start to feel it.

S&P Global, which provides the national economic modeling that feeds into Oregon’s forecast, cut its projected 2026 GDP growth from 2.2% to 1.6% between January and May. That’s a meaningful revision.

Is Oregon heading into a recession?

OEA doesn’t think so. The office estimates we’d need nationwide gasoline prices to stay above about $5.50 a gallon—a dollar above current prices—before recession risks become genuinely serious. The May recession probability ticked up to 22% from 20% in the March forecast. That’s an uptick, but not a red alert.

But here’s what it means for Oregon: that anticipated labor market turnaround has been pushed further off. The 2026 employment forecast flipped from a 0.6% annual gain to a 0.6% decline. That’s a swing of roughly 30,000 fewer jobs through the year than March had projected—and we’ve already lost more than 10,000 jobs since the end of last year. OEA forecasts the unemployment rate will reach 5.4% by year-end.

The revenue headline, and what’s inside it

Here’s where things get a little counterintuitive. Stay with me, folks.

The May General Fund forecast is up $345 million from the March forecast. The projected biennium ending balance improved from about $198 million to about $345 million. If you stop at the headline, it sounds like Oregon’s fiscal situation got materially better, but policymakers need to understand how much of this is due to legislative actions versus economic conditions.

It got somewhat better. But not primarily because of the economy.

Of that $345 million improvement, $368 million came from the 2026 short legislative session. Oregon disconnected from a couple of federal tax provisions in H.R. 1, also known as the One Big Beautiful Bill. This disconnect includes rules around business depreciation and a jobs tax credit, which will boost anticipated corporate income tax receipts. Changes to personal income tax treatment added more. A pair of fund sweeps rounded it out. Put simply, the legislature improved the state’s fiscal situation through tax increases rather than economic growth.

Strip out the legislative changes, and the underlying picture is actually slightly worse than March projected—about $23 million below that forecast. Revenues from February through April also came in $308 million short of first quarter expectations.

OEA says most of that is timing: companies delayed estimated tax payments while waiting on a state program that wasn’t renewed until late March, and the usual distortion that comes from a large kicker credit affecting when people file. Most of those dollars are expected to show up later in the biennium.

One more thing: the legislature also increased spending by $198 million for the biennium. So while the ending balance improved, it improved by less than half of what the headline revenue gain suggests.

A shift in where the money is coming from

The April income tax filing deadline gave OEA its first real look at 2025 income—and there was a notable shift in the pattern. Wage income grew more slowly than expected. Capital gains, dividends, and retirement distributions came in much stronger.

That matters for two reasons. Capital income is concentrated at the top of the income distribution, which means a higher effective tax rate under Oregon’s graduated structure, so it’s a modest revenue positive. But it’s also less stable than wages. Capital income can shrink quickly when markets turn, introducing greater uncertainty into forecasts and highlighting potential vulnerabilities in Oregon’s revenue stability.
The Portland piece

Oregon’s semiconductor and electronics manufacturing sector—centered in Washington County—is projected to lose roughly 12-13% of its jobs in 2026, on top of a similar decline in 2025. Oregon manufacturing employment is down 9.8% from pre-COVID levels. In contrast, U.S. manufacturing is down only 1.2%.

The March forecast had expected only about an 8% drop in semiconductor and electronics manufacturing employment for 2026. The downward revision is largely about Intel, which OEA describes with careful understatement as having made “significant layoffs.” That story has been well-documented. The point here is that the Portland region is absorbing most of it, and the employment forecasts reflect that.

Multnomah County is still losing population. From 2020 to 2025, the county lost about 2.6% of its population, according to the Census Bureau. That’s nearly 21,000 people, and it’s the steepest drop of any Oregon county. A slowly shrinking city faces compounding pressures: fewer workers, fewer students, a narrower tax base. That pressure builds up over time and contributes to an urban doom loop.

What to watch

The May forecast assumes oil prices ease over the coming year. If the Iran conflict winds down and energy costs fall back, Oregon’s employment picture improves faster. If it doesn’t, the 22% recession probability will tick up, and Oregon may be one of the first states to face it. Remember, Oregon does not have a good track record of dealing with recessions.

The Federal Reserve, widely expected to resume cutting rates in 2026, is now on hold through at least mid-2027—and a rate increase by year-end is being discussed. Long-term interest rates are near their highest levels since 2007. For Oregon’s housing market, already under pressure before any of this happened, that means the wait for relief continues.

The next forecast is scheduled for September. By then, the outstanding questions about 2025 income will be largely resolved, second-quarter GDP data for Oregon will be available, and the oil market will have either calmed down or gotten worse.

The March forecast asked whether Oregon’s growth story was about to improve. The May forecast answered: not yet, and maybe not.

You might want to build up that rainy day fund, because the clouds are still in the sky.

The post Oregon forecast: Recession, Iran, population trends first appeared on Oregon Catalyst.

by John A. Charles, Jr.

Portland Public Schools threw itself a party on May 29 to celebrate breaking ground on the new $460 million dollar Jefferson High School. The Oregonian dutifully repeated the talking point that the building would be “all‑electric powered.” Sounds impressive… until you look at the details.

Because PPS quietly admitted—right before the ceremony—that the school won’t be all‑electric. Science labs still need natural gas for Bunsen burners. State law still requires diesel backup generators. And the other two high‑school rebuilds, Cleveland and Ida B. Wells, are in the same boat. So the “all‑electric” label is more marketing than engineering.

But even if PPS could pull it off, it wouldn’t change emissions. More than half the natural gas used in Oregon is burned to make electricity. So removing gas lines from the school just means the same gas gets burned somewhere else. Meanwhile, wind and solar provided only about eleven percent of Oregon’s electricity last year. Fossil fuels provided at least thirty‑eight percent. The grid isn’t magic.

What is real is the cost. PPS’s own consultant warned that all‑electric construction would add at least ten million dollars per school. And when Cascade asked the district for documentation on those added costs, PPS gave us nothing.

New York’s governor just backed away from its own climate mandate after projecting thousands of dollars in new annual energy costs per family. That’s the future PPS is pretending not to see.

It’s not too late for the board to stop chasing slogans and redirect thirty million dollars toward improvements that actually help students.

Click here for the PDF of the 645-word commentary

John A. Charles, Jr. is President and CEO of Cascade Policy Institute, Oregon’s free market public policy research organization. He researches, writes, and presents testimony and analysis on state and local issues important to the freedom and opportunity of all Oregonians.

The post The False Promise of Portland’s “All Electric” High Schools first appeared on Oregon Catalyst.

Kudo to Babylon Bee for the Biden-mayor election spoof.
By Guest Submission Meme,

More memes below:

The post (6 memes) Surprise LA Mayor result first appeared on Oregon Catalyst.

By NW Spotlight,

Independent journalist and homeless advocate Kevin Dahlgren shows a video of a homeless teen who is tired of drugs being pushed upon him.  View the post below, then follow Dahlgren and financially support him.

The post (sad video) Street teen mad at drugs shoved upon him first appeared on Oregon Catalyst.

By Oregon Campaign Watch,

Former U.S Senator Bob Packwood died while in hospice in California this June 6, 2026.  Packwood is most positively known for his leading role in the 1986 Tax Reform Act which was won of the biggest tax reforms in American history.  He is also known for the founding of the Oregon Dorchester conference which is cited as Oregon’s longest running political conference and for which celebrated 60 years this 2026.

The post Ex-Oregon U.S. Senator Bob Packwood dies first appeared on Oregon Catalyst.

By Jason Williams
Oregon250.com
Website dedicated to celebrating America’s 250th anniversary.

During a  D-Day ceremony in Normandy, France this week, honored World War II veteran Arthur Rose read a letter he himself wrote shortly after experiencing D-Day June 6, 1944.

“Dear mom and dad and kids, About a month before we landed, I had a feeling I might be part of the invasion. I couldn’t quite believe, though, that I would. I kept thinking, what could I possibly do in an invasion? Pull engines in the middle of a battle? I figured men like me would come along afterwards — after they cleared the wreckage and the damage had passed”

“But two weeks before D-Day, I was told I would go along and do whatever I could. We had moved to the assault port. Thousands of ships and landing craft of every description filled the harbor. Everyone worked day and night preparing fuel, provisions, ammunition and secret material. Everything was checked and rechecked and checked again. You can imagine the confusion and activity,”

“Then came the day we began loading supplies for the invasion: food, blankets, ammunition, and all the countless things that would be needed once the men landed in France. We knew then the invasion could not be far. Then came the word: D-Day will be June 6th,”

“I can’t describe the feeling exactly. It wasn’t fear, and it wasn’t excitement. Just a funny feeling — nervousness, expectancy, and wondering what was going to happen next. Then we sailed. The sea was rough, windy, and miserable. I was seasick most of the time. Everyone expected bombing, submarines, battleships, and all hell to break loose at any moment. But the first attempt was called off because the sea was too rough, and we returned to the harbor. That was a real letdown”

“The next day, we sailed again. Near the coast of France, we could see flashes in the distance and hear the explosions continuously. In went the landing craft. We expected terrible destruction, as there was shelling, and men died. But not all of us”

“Then our work truly began: back and forth, day and night, bringing in equipment, medical supplies, and ammunition. What had once been just another stretch of French coast had suddenly become a vast harbor filled with hundreds of ships and thousands of men.”

“I will always be grateful to my commander for taking me along. Don’t worry about me. I am well, and whole, and happy. Love, Art,”

The post WWII Vet reads his post D-Day letter to family first appeared on Oregon Catalyst.

By Lars Larson

The Northwest Nonsense

If you think it’s bad that California won’t know its primary election results for weeks, Washington State is even worse.

The Golden State honors citizen ballots that come in a week after election day.

The Evergreen state counts votes that arrive 3 weeks late.

Sometime this month, maybe in the next few days, the U.S. Supreme Court hands down a decision that could end tardy voting.

Based on the skeptical questions Justices asked back in March when they heard the oral arguments, the Supreme Court seems likely to strike down the grace period allowed by 14 of America’s states.

75 percent of the states ONLY count votes that arrive on time. I hope the Supremes knock Washington state back to that standard.

The Justices recognize that the longer we wait after an election to get the result, the more citizens rightly question if the results are even legit.

Remember when Dino Rossi ran for Governor in Washington…and he won the first two ballot counts…but on the third count, miraculously, Democrat Party candidate Christine Gregoire won by 130 out of 2-point-9 million votes.

That election still stinks…but imagine the stench if you told voters that ballots arriving weeks AFTER the election made all the difference.

That’s the Rose City Rap. Join me at noon on KXL for 4 hours of honestly provocative talk. I’m Lars Larson

The post Lars Larson: Supreme Ct. should strike down tardy ballots first appeared on Oregon Catalyst.