Oregon Housing Blog

Oregon Housing Council Materials Posted for Next Friday Feb. 3rd Meeting.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 14:59:00 +0000

See link in right pane under " Oregon Housing Council Materials".

Notable agenda items for this meeting:

NEW BUSINESS
A. Vida Lea Mobile Home Park (Leaburg, OR),
Manufactured Dwelling Park Preservation (MDPP) Grant Request
B. Hyak (Seaside, OR), Predevelopment Loan Request

SPECIAL REPORTS
A. Preserving Manufactured Home Parks Through Pegge McGuire
Resident Ownership, Presented by Theresa Wingard,
Program Coordinator, Manufactured Communities
Resource Center; and Peter Hainley, Executive Director,
CASA of Oregon

DISCUSSION ITEM
A. Community Engagement
Karen Tolvstad

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Who Knew? Oregon Renter Households 56% MORE Likely to Have Children Under 6 Than Owner Occupied Households

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 04:15:00 +0000

Took a glance at new Oregon Census 2010 data released today.

Census 2010 Table HCT11 (TENURE BY PRESENCE AND AGE OF RELATED CHILDREN) has counts of children by tenure. My calculations:

Statewide in Oregon, for children less than 6 years old, renter households were 56% more likely to to have children of this age than were owner occupied households; 9.3% of renter households have children less than age six and 5.9% of all owner occupied households had children less than age 6. ( 9.3%/5.6%-1= 56%).

Oregon School Districts: In 95% of Districts, Renter Households More Likely than Owner Occupants to Have Children Less than Age Six ; One BIG Exception.

I also took look at Oregon School District Data, and it appears that in 183 of 192 (95%) Oregon school districts, renter households were MORE likely than owner occupant households to have children less than age six.

A notable exception was the Portland School District 1J where renter households were 37% less likely than owner occupant households to have children less than age six.

All Children

Statewide in Oregon, renter households were 10% more likely to have children of all ages than owner occupied households; 31.3% of renter households had children and 28.4% of owner occupied households had children. ( 31.3%/28.4%-1= 10%).

Note:

Because the overall number of owner occupant households were more than the number of renter households, 60% of the total households with children were owner occupant households and 40% were renter households.

However, of the total Oregon number of households with children less than six years old, nearly a majority of those, 49%, were renter households.

These are counts of households with children and not population counts of children.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

HUD Publishes Fall 2011 Semi Annual Regulatory Agenda, In January 2012.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 23:08:00 +0000

List of status of regulations for HUD is HERE.

HUD statement of regulatory priorities is HERE.

Frankly, some of entries don't make sense...It's January 2012 and some proposed rules (including long, long delayed Affirmatively Furthering Fair housing proposed rule) show a proposed date of December 2011 and rule has yet to appear). [OMB has a Jan 17th reg under review HERE to demonstrate Affirmatively Furthering in Baltimore MSA..but no telling when it will make it to the Federal Register].

But then again, publishing a summary of regulations advertised as "Fall, 2011" in January of 2012 doesn't make any sense either....

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Effective Tax Rates, Revisited.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 15:52:00 +0000

With recent discussions about Romney's 15% effective income tax rate, this is good time to review a June 2010 post.

That post HERE includes data derived from CBO data on effective tax rates and shows that for many, tax rates have been declining and NOT increasing.

Note that using income tax alone, the 2007 effective INCOME tax rate for middle income children with families was 2.7% and increased to 15.2% when payroll taxes were included.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New GAO Report on Appraisal Regulation.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 17:39:00 +0000

Report is HERE.

Who knew? Oregon had 1,737 total appraisers, 380 disciplinary actions (2001-2010), an average of 38 a year.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

DJIA Changes, First 3 Years of Obama Far Outstrip Bush Performance, How Come Not More Credit?

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 00:04:00 +0000

With the economy continuing to struggle it occurred to me today to take a look back at the change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the 1st 3 years of the Obama administration, compared to Bush terms 1 and 2 and also the complete 8 years of the Bush administration.

As table I prepared below shows ( using data downloaded HERE) the DJIA during the first 3 years of the Obama Administration has vastly outperformed the Bush Administration, for almost any comparable time period (and the entire Bush presidency).

Not clear to me why there hasn't been at least SOME attention paid to this positive economic development.


Click to Enlarge

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Metro Economic Profile and World Ranking from Brookings.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 15:44:00 +0000

Search by 200 world wide metro areas is HERE; Portland metro PDF is HERE.

Portland has middle of pack rating for 2010-2011, near bottom from 2007-2010, and in top 20% from 1993-2007.

All North American profiles are HERE; main page is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New Report: Disparities in Mortgage Lending and Foreclosures.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 14:29:00 +0000

Report, from Center for Responsible Lending in North Carolina, is HERE. No Oregon or Portland data, but important findings like those shown in this graph and in these excerpts:

Racial and ethnic differences in foreclosure rates persist even after accounting for differences in borrower incomes.
Racial and ethnic disparities in foreclosure rates cannot be explained by income, since disparities persist even among higher-income groups. For example, approximately 10 percent of higher-income African-American borrowers and 15 percent of higher-income Latino borrowers have lost their home to foreclosure, compared with 4.6 percent of higher income non-Hispanic white borrowers. Overall, low- and moderate-income African Americans and middle- and higher-income Latinos have experienced the highest foreclosure rates

Loan type and race and ethnicity are strongly linked.
African Americans and Latinos were much more likely to receive high interest rate (subprime) loans and loans with features that are associated with higher foreclosures,specifically prepayment penalties and hybrid or option ARMs. ... the disparities were especially pronounced for borrowers with higher credit scores. For example, among borrowers with a FICO score of over 660 (indicating good credit), African Americans and Latinos received a high interest rate loan more than three times as often as white borrowers.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New Joint Tax Committee Tax Expenditure Estimates; Big 3 Home Ownership Tax Costs to Increase by $49 Billion Over 4 Years.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 00:42:00 +0000

New estimates are available HERE. [ Tip of hat to Novogradac for first alert that was report was available via Twitter].

Haven't had a chance to compare to other estimates, but table pasted below shows big three home ownership related federal tax expenditure estimates:


Click to Enlarge

Observations:

2012-2011 total change is modest 1.1% because projected property tax deductions are estimated to go down by 37.9%
In 2015 estimate is that big three home ownership expenditures will reach $169.7 BILLION annually. This is an INCREASE of $49.36 billion/41% from 2011.
In 2015 estimate is that mortgage interest deduction alone will reach $113.4 billion, an INCREASE of $35.8 billion/46.1% from 2011.
Not in table: If Oregon's share of total federal tax expenditures is 1%, 2015 Oregon federal tax expenditures for these three home ownership tax expenditures would be $1.697 Billion.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

OHCS/OHSI Before Two Oregon Legislative Committees this Week.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 15:51:00 +0000

Legislative Audio web page that would allow you to listen live to these hearings is HERE (look for hearing room).

Specifics on hearings from Legislative Committee Agenda website HERE:

Joint Ways and Means Subcommittee On Transportation and Economic Development
Date: Wednesday-January 18
Time: 11:00 A.M.
Room: H-174
Rep. Read, Presiding Co-Chair
Work Session
3. Housing and Community Services Department - foreclosure counseling services
4. Housing and Community Services Department - Oregon Home Ownership Stabilization Initiative
Informational Meeting
Housing and Community Services Department - food assistance programs and needs

Senate, General Government, Consumer and Small Business Protection Committee
Date: Thursday-January 19
Time: 8:00 A.M.
Room: HR C
Oregon Homeownership Stabilization Initiative
     - Margaret VanVliet, Director, Oregon Housing & Community Services
     - Michael Auman, Administrator, Homeownership Stabilization Initiative Division
     - Emily Reiman, Opportunity Works Manager, Neighborhood Economic Development
      Corp (NEDCO)
     - Adam Wagner, Homeowner & Participant in OHSI

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Kanas Governor Proposes Elimination of Mortgage Interest Tax Deduction in New State Budget Proposal.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 19:57:00 +0000

Kansas City Star story HERE.

Governor's Budget document is HERE.

For the record, I'm not a fan of Governor Brownback and there are likely portions of his budget that I would have big problems with [for example, eliminating individual state income tax on non-wage business income (e.g., from LLCs and S-corps)].

With that said, it IS a bold measure to propose in his budget the elimination of the mortgage interest and other tax deductions.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Homeforward Jan 17 Meeting Includes Hillsdale Terrace/Stephens Creek Hope VI Updates.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 15:12:00 +0000

The homeforward January 17 Board meeting package has been posted. The link in right pane (and HERE) has been updated to include CY 2012 board meetings.

Materials include:

Hillsdale Terrace/ Stephens Creek Crossing Update starts on Pg 23 and includes summary of where people moved (Pg. 29) and forward looking 6 Month schedule (Pg 37).
The Dashboard report starts on Pg 43 and on page 44 indicates that in December 2011 homeforward served 14,697 households including 10,175 MTV households.

Board meeting packages for CY 2011 are HERE and for CY 2010 HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

CBPP: Romney Charge that Very Little of Benefit $$ Reach Beneficaries Because of Fed Bureaucratic Costs Doesn't Hold Up.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 15:59:00 +0000

CBPP has analysis HERE of Romney charge that:

What unfortunately happens is with all the multiplicity of federal programs, you have massive overhead, with government bureaucrats in Washington administering all these programs, very little of the money that’s actually needed by those that really need help, those that can’t care for themselves, actually reaches them.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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New Study on Elementary Education Results from Inclusionary Housing Requirement in Montgomery County, MD.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 14:18:00 +0000

Study is HERE. From the study:

After seven years (the end of elementary school), children in public housing in Montgomery County’s most affluent half of elementary schools performed eight points higher in math .. and five points higher in reading ... than otherwise similar children in public housing who attended schools with greater than 20 percent poverty. Within education research, these are large effects since relatively few educational reforms demonstrate positive effects of this magnitude.
Perhaps most important, the children in public housing who attended low-poverty schools began to catch up to their non-poor district-mates over the course of elementary school; by the end, they had cut their initial achievement gap in half.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

How Home Refinancing Helps Boost Spending.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 15:29:00 +0000

Interesting NY Federal Reserve paper HERE says:

The fact that 55 percent of the investors are governmental, foreign, or long-term institutional holders suggests that each dollar of refinancing effectively translates into 44 cents of net increase in after-tax disposable income available for spending (= 0.55 x 80 percent, assuming a 20 percent marginal tax rate). If homeowners on average spend 90 percent of this additional disposable income, then each dollar of reduced mortgage payments would translate into 40 cents of additional spending. However, this estimate of 40 cents per dollar is overly conservative, because the tendency for borrowers to spend out of increases in their disposable income likely exceeds the tendency for investor households to cut back spending in response to decreases in their interest income. For example, if investor households on average spend 70 cents of every dollar of after-tax investment income, then the overall impact of a dollar reduction in a borrower’s required monthly payment would increase by 7 cents [(=0.45 x 80 percent) x (90 percent - 70 percent)]—or from 40 to 47 cents. Taken together, these calculations imply that every dollar reduction in a borrower’s monthly mortgage payment stemming from a refinancing is likely to generate close to 50 cents of additional spending—a very different outcome than the absence of any change in spending implied if refinancing were a zero-sum game

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Lake Oswego Streetcar Project Sidetracked as City Counselor Changes Vote.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 15:16:00 +0000

LO Review story HERE says Counselor Tierney changed his mind.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Two Housing Council Vacancies: What about YOU?

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 19:04:00 +0000

OHCS Director Margaret Van Vliet has sent an email request advising that the State Housing Council is shy two appointees. Governor's page on Executive appointments is HERE and information about current members of Housing Council is HERE.

While your application is made directly to the Governor's Office, if you have any questions about the duties/operations of the Council you may also contact Margaret.

I especially encourage minority group members and women to consider applying for these vacancies.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Save the Date: Thursday Feb 2nd Evening Lake Oswego Event to Include Focus on Housing

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 18:25:00 +0000

A "We Love Lake Oswego" event scheduled for Thursday February 2nd from 6- 8 PM will focus on Inspiring Spaces & Complete Neighborhoods and Housing. The event is at Lakeridge HS.

I will be attending the event and would like to strongly encourage others from around the Portland metro area to attend to voice your support for the need for affordable housing in Lake Oswego.

In the time between now and the event I will try to post links to background materials on Lake Oswego housing needs that attendees may want to review before attending the event.

If you are planning to attend please send me an email (housepdx@gmail.com ) so that I might communicate/ coordinate talking points with those planning on attending.

In the interim the draft background paper from a LO Citizen Advisory Committee HERE (Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Draft Background and Policy Questions) provides a STARTING point for the Feb 2nd discussions.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Projection: 57,000+Oregon Children Served in LIHTC, Voucher, Project Based S 8, and Public Housing Programs; Improvements Next Year Should Provide Rich Local Detail.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 16:55:00 +0000

I recently completed a review of tenant data from a LIHTC data base provided to me by OHCS staff. This database has a number of shortcomings that should be greatly improved next year, but for now I was able to develop a projection of children served by the LIHTC program in Oregon. I then combined that projection with projections of children served by the HUD voucher, HUD Project Based Section 8, and public housing programs.

A simple breakout of the 57,597 projected children served by these select subsidized housing programs is in the table below; the detailed table HERE shows how data was calculated and also data sources.

Oregon Children Served by TANF Likely Less Than Children Served by All Subsidized Rental Programs.
As a point of reference, the latest TANF reports show a total of 59,000 Oregon children served by the single parent and dual parent TANF programs.

The 57,597 assisted rental housing child count in this projection does not include children in units funded by HOME, CDBG, or HUD Homeless funding unless they also live in a LIHTC, Project Based Section 8 or public housing unit or are receiving a HUD voucher.

This projection also does not include counts of children in Rural Development assisted rental units unless that unit is also a LIHTC unit or receiving project based Section 8 or the family is receiving HUD voucher assistance.

If those programs were included I am confident that the count of children served by subsidized housing programs would exceed the 59,000 children served by the TANF program in Oregon.

Improvements in Data Reporting Coming Next Year, Including Local Data
This first statewide estimate of children served by these programs is a prelude to what should be a enhanced version of tenant demographic data reporting for next year, including geographic data down to at least the county level.

OHCS staff have advised that tenant demographic reporting will begin in the new year using software that should greatly improve the completeness and accuracy of tenant data reporting. In addition to being able to drill down to geography below the state level the tenant data should allow timely reporting of elderly and disabled households served by the LIHTC program as well as providing information about tenant incomes and race and ethnicity.

Improved reporting will allow all of us to see more clearly at the local level detailed demographics of the residents helped by assisted housing rental programs in Oregon.

BIG thanks to OHCS Chief Information Officer Bill Carpenter and his staffer Ron Pickett for the time and effort that made it possible to produce this initial effort and for their work to expand and localize this demographic data in the coming year.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

All New HUD Choice Neighborhood Grantees East of Mississippi

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 16:26:00 +0000

That's what it looks like to me; HUD PR HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New GAO Report on TARP Costs Says Costs Down, Big CBO/Treasury Differences Exist about Housing Costs.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 15:39:00 +0000

GAO report is HERE. From the report:

In 2009, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that TARP could cost $356 billion. However, CBO’s most recent estimate, using November 2011 data, is approximately $34 billion.

Treasury’s fiscal year 2011 financial statement, audited by GAO, reported that TARP would cost around $70 billion as of September 30, 2011, a decrease from about $78 billion estimated as of September 2010.

…. program participation assumptions for TARP-funded housing programs explain the large difference between the CBO and Treasury cost estimates.

Treasury assumed that all of the $45.6 billion allocated to TARP housing programs would be utilized and, as a result, estimated that they would cost $45.6 billion.

Conversely, CBO expected lower participation rates for the housing programs, resulting in a cost estimate of $13 billion as of November 2011

If you do the math you will see that:

Housing program costs represent 38% of projected TARP costs according to CBO and 65% according to Treasury.
Treasury's estimated TARP housing program cost is 251% higher than the estimated CBO TARP housing program costs.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

YouTube Time Lapse Video of 30 Story Chinese Hotel Built in 360 Hours.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 00:12:00 +0000

Not sure about indoor look and feel or long term quality, but equivalent of 15 days to construct IS impressive.

Direct URL is HERE.

Barry Apartment Report Winter Edition Out: Half of 2012 Portland Metro Production to be Public Sponsored.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 22:15:00 +0000

You can view and print this report, focused on Portland metro, from link HERE.

From the report:

We expect to see permits for 2,000 to 2,500 new units in 2012, with half of the construction activity in Multnomah County. While this is below the trend line of the five years ended in 2008, we will see double the apartment construction in 2012 that we saw in 2010. We expect that half of this apartment construction will have public sponsorship or participation. [emphasis added].

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New OHCS Annual Reporting Dashboard.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 22:03:00 +0000

I hadn't seen before, lots of metrics about multiple OCHS programs in 12/20/2011 report HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Off Topic: Didn't Think I'd Get Here, But Given the Alternative...Today is Not So Bad.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 13:00:00 +0000

Direct Link to URL HERE