Oregon Housing Blog

METRO SHS Funded Workforce: 1,042 Full-Time Equivalents (FTE)/$78 Million Annual Cost.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Mon, 12 Feb 2024 19:34:00 +0000

My last post.

In August I pointed out to the Metro SHS Oversight Committee that METRO had not published any data on the size of the SHS funded workforce. Instead, annual reports had information on pay equity for different job classifications. Pay equity reports included counts of employees surveyed by job category but did NOT break out SHS funded positions.

Even the recent Metro SHS audit had ONLY Metro government FTE counts with NO data on non governmental or county FTE counts funded by SHS.

In response to my August request for FTE information,

Metro provided counts for their staff.
Over the next several months the three counties provided counts (following my public record requests).
Clackamas County required me to pay $250 for their FTE information. I likely would have prevailed if I appealed to District Attorney, but with my health condition time was more valuable then money.

The two tables pasted below show the FTE counts by county and an estimate of the annual cost for these FTE using a $60,000 average salary and 25%/$15,000 fringe benefits.

The tables show a total SHS funded workforce of 1,042 FTE positions at an annual estimated salary and fringe cost of $75 million.

780/75% of these positions are in non-governmental organizations with 262/25% in government agencies.

As a point of reference, OHCS has a statewide authorized budget, for ALL of its programs, of about 450 FTE. That's about 1.7 the size of the 262 SHS funded government positions. (This does NOT include non governmental positions funded by OHCS).

I consider these estimates the lower bound of actual SHS funded FTE authorized as they do not include estimates for City of Portland funded SHS positions and executive positions are also likely excluded. Indirect admin costs, which often exceed 25%, are also NOT included.

On the flip side, not all authorized positions are filled.

Is this the "Homeless Industrial Complex" ?

It’s inevitable that some will reference these FTE counts as illustrative of the "homeless industrial complex". I look at it instead as representative of the inevitable cost of high touch programs like SHS that combine services with housing and mix assistance for chronic homeless persons with assistance for households who may be in danger of homelessness.

Instead of shying away from tracking and sharing this information, the counties

Need to do a better job of informing the public of the size of the SHS funded workforce and NOT just on pay equity issues currently found in annual reports. The simple Excel spreadsheet provided by Clackamas County is an good starting point.
Need to do a better job of informing the public of the metrics they are using to track workload and progress, including per person workload expectations. How many PSH placements were made with 1,000+FTE"s?

And METRO should require the public posting of ALL SHS funded service contracts, including FTE counts.

I have consolidated the public record responses from the counties into a single 4 page PDF file HERE, with the two tables below as a initial page.

Created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog,

A Personal Health Note.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 10 Jan 2024 16:36:00 +0000

A personal health note:

1drv.ms/b/s!Apns68eMSL

26 Year History of HUD OCAF's by State, Territory, and the US.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 29 Nov 2023 16:06:00 +0000

Following HUD's publication of the FY 2024 OCAF, I have created a 6 page PDF file HERE with the 26 year OCAF history for every state, territory, and the US from FY 1999-FY 2024.

The PDF file also includes columns showing for each state, territory, and the US:

Their average OCAF over the 26 year period, and for the last 3 years.
Their FY with the highest OCAF.
Their rank of the FY 2024 OCAF change among the 26 years.

HUD does not publish this data and I haven't found it elsewhere.

I also pasted below the Oregon OCAF's from FY 1999 to FY 2024.

Note that the Oregon FY 2024 OCAF is lower than FY 2023 but still above the average for the last 26 years, and the 4th highest in this 26 year period.

As I noted previously increases in OCAF do NOT increase tenant rents, but do increase subsidy needs.

Also OCAF increases exclude debt service so a 4.9% OCAF increase does NOT apply to the full contract or Fair Market Rent, but only to the operating expenses for that project.

Courtesy, Oregon Housing Blog.

HUD FY 2024 Oregon OCAF DROPS TO 4.9%%, Still 4th Highest in 26 Years.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 29 Nov 2023 15:03:00 +0000

HUD has published the FY 2024 operating cost adjustment factors (OCAF) HERE.

The PDF file includes an explanation of the sources used to calculate OCAF as well as state and US OCAF's. The effective date is for contracts with a contract anniversary on or after February 11, 2024

HUD uses the OCAF to adjust annual subsidized rents in project based section 8 developments, and also for many public housing developments whose public housing operating subsidy has been converted to the Rental Assistance Program (RAD).

The FY 2024 OCAF for Oregon is 4.9%, the fourth highest in 1he last 26 years (the 2009 Oregon OCAF was the highest at 7.1%). The Oregon 2023 OCAF was higher at 5.6%.

The US OCAF was 5.3%, higher than the 5.1% projected by HUD in its fiscal year 2024 congressional budget justification, but still LOWER than the 2023 US OCAF of 6.1%. I count only 7 states with a 2024 OCAF higher than their FY 2023 OCAF.

Since OCAF is NOT applied to debt service, over time rent increases using OCAF can total less than rent increases using HUD FMRs.(This can change if budget based or rent comparability studies are used). Generally HUD rent increases increase subsidy needs, NOT the tenant share of rent.

FY 2022 and FY 2023 Congressional Earmark Data: Who Knew? HUD Budget Had 18%/$4.5 Billion of Total $24.4 BILLION in Earmarks.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Mon, 16 Oct 2023 16:30:00 +0000

By any name ("Community Projects") Congress loves their earmarks.

Finding detailed earmark information is another story.

Earmark reform was supposed to increase transparency by requiring publication on a members website, but finding comprehensive data has continued to be virtually impossible. And, when posted, virtually all of it is in the form of PDF files with tables listing earmarks that are difficult to convert to useable spreadsheets.

Thankfully, the General Accounting Office has begun the process of tracking those earmarks with a new website HERE.

Last month the GAO finally posted data for FY 2023 which started 11 months earlier. To find out comprehensive data for FY 2024 (which started October 1st) it seems likely that GAO will not publish that data until September 2024. [Congress has yet to pass appropriations bills so that is another reason why FY 2024 data is not available].

GAO has provided the data in a variety of formats and I decided to compile my own Excel workbook that included all of the GAO FY 2022 and FY 2023 data PLUS

A breakout of HUD earmarks for their Economic Development Initiatives program.
HUD guides for their earmark program, Economic Development Initiatives
USA spending data on HUD earmarks nationwide that includes city and county data that is missing from the GAO data. That data has totals lower than the GAO data, likely because while budgeted, funds have not yet been obligated.

That Excel workbook i created is HERE and it opens to a listing of all worksheets, which include multiple pivot tables. I have yet to find a similar workbook with as much earmark data in one place.

EXAMPLES/OBSERVATIONS

Images from three worksheets pasted below show for FY 2022 and FY 2023

A nationwide breakout of earmarks by agency.
And the same breakout for Oregon.
AND a comparison of Oregon HUD CPD formula allocations vs HUD earmarks.

Nationally HUD earmarks for the two years cost $4.5 BILLLON and in Oregon $80 Million.

TOTAL earmarks were $24.4 BILLION nationally and $439 Million in Oregon.

BOTH in the US and in Oregon HUD represented 18% of all earmark dollars. In comparison OMB budget documents indicate that HUD averaged only 3.6% of discretionary budget authority in FY 2022 and FY 2023.

The graph in the third image shows that the $80 Million in HUD earmarks was MORE that the EVERY ONE of the HUD CPD formula allocation programs (CDBG, HOME, ESG, HOPWA, and the Housing Trust fund.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

FY 2014-FY2024. 8 Oregon Counties Had a HUD 2 BR Fair Market Rent Increase of More than 100%.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Fri, 01 Sep 2023 15:35:00 +0000

The table pasted below shows by Oregon county the HUD 2 BR FMR's from FY 2014-2024, and columns that show the dollar and percentage increase and the rank by percentage increase..

Note that there are 8 counties that saw a greater than 100% increase in their HUD 2 BR FMR, led by the 5 counties in the Portland metro area that saw an increase of 119.5%.

The unweighted median increase in all counties was 68.6%.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

HUD FY 2024 Oregon Fair Market Rents Published. Portland Metro 2 BR FMR Tops $2K for First Time, Increasing by 10.1%/$185 A Month.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Thu, 31 Aug 2023 05:45:00 +0000

HUD has published FY 2024 Fair Market Rents, effective October 1, 2023 HERE.

I have prepared a table pasted below that shows by county the 2 BR FMR rent change from FY 2023-FY2024. I also include a high to low ranking of the FY percentage rate of change.

2 BR FMR Observations:

The Portland metro increase is 10.1%, $185 per month to $2,024. That's the 3rd largest % Oregon county increase.
The largest % increase is 15.3% in Josephine county; the smallest--a 9.9% DECREASE--is in Douglas county.
I calculate the median (unweighted by size of voucher program) increase at 7.8%,

Housing Voucher Impacts

Note that housing authorities have 90 days to implement changes in payment standards for the housing voucher program to insure that they are within 90-110% of the new FMR's.

Several Oregon PHA's have Moving to Work authority which may allow them to approve payment standards within a wider range of FMR.

Portland Metro SHS Regional Long Term Rental Assistance Rents are Also Impacted

ALSO, note that Portland Metro Supportive Housing Services Region Long Term Rental Assistance rents are calculated at 120% of Fair Market Rents, so a change in HUD FMR's also means a potential increase in rents/costs for RLRA.

After October 1st current Metro SHS rules would allow a RLRA 2 BR FMR of up to $2,429.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Full Year SHS Reports Out: 1. Big Differences in Service to Priority Population A. 2. Required Reporting of $ by Priority Category is Missing.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Thu, 24 Aug 2023 17:15:00 +0000

The final quarter of the fiscal year SHS reports have been sent by the counties to Metro.

I have combined them with the prior FY 2023 quarterly reports in a single PDF file HERE.

(I previously consolidated FY 2022 quarterly reports and the annual FY 2022 report into a single PDF file HERE).

I also extracted the data from the Section 2.C reports that show the population and household counts subdivided by Population Group A and B.

Population A definition:

Extremely low-income households with one or more disabling conditions experiencing/at imminent risk of experiencing long-term literal homelessness. (Disabling conditions can include a physical, psychological or cognitive disability, a chronic illness or an addiction.)

Population B definition:

Experiencing homelessness; OR Have a substantial risk of experiencing homelessness

Observations:

1. COUNTS of Population and Households Served:

Overall the counties report that 27%of the people served were in Population Group A and 36% of the households served were in Population Group A.

However, there were substantial differences in the share of service to Population Group A:

Clackamas County reported that 83% of the people it served and 84% of the households they served were in Group A. This is SUBSTANTIALLY higher than the other two counties.
Multnomah County reported that ONLY 14% of the people it served and 23% of the households they served were in Group A.
Washington County reported that ONLY 33% of the people and 42% of the households they served were in Population Group A.

The graphs pasted below display full year Population A data, by share and then by counts.

2. Required SPENDING Reports for Population A and B Are MISSING.

Intergovernmental agreements call for 75% of SHS funds to be used to serve population A.

While I have reported COUNTS of people and households served, I have not yet found any quarterly or annual reporting that shows how much has actually been spent on population A vs. population B.

Two years into the SHS program that seems like a major defect to me.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

2023 Oregon Bond Loan Program Income Limits: Portland Metro and Deschutes County Limits Are UP, But ALL Other Counties Are DOWN.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 05 Jul 2023 16:45:00 +0000

Last year I pointed out that newly published Oregon Bond income limits for rural areas were substantially higher than HUD median incomes. Because of this I estimated that up to 90% of all rural households may have qualified for the Oregon Bond program, a program that was traditionally though to be focused at 80% MFI or below.

OHCS has just published their 2023 Oregon bond income limits (effective June 28) and

Portland metro limit went up, as did income limits for Deschutes counties.
Limits in ALL other Oregon counties went DOWN.

The PDF file HERE and embedded below shows the county by county difference by household size and for targeted and non targeted areas.

OHCS does not publish it calculation of Home Loan Bond income limits so I don't know if the reductions this year were specific corrections from last year, because of changing data, or because of policy choices. (I don't have an insight as to why even limits in Benton, Lane, Marion, and Jackson metro counties went down).

Note that OCHS bond loan are also subject to maximum purchase prices found HERE.

The current Oregon bond loan rates are Rate Advantage 5.875%/Cash Advantage 6.5%.

Portland Metro Income Limits as High As $157,920.

A Portland metro family of 3 or more can income qualify with an income as high as $141,547 AND if the home is in a targeted area the family can qualify with an income as high as $157,920. (Portland metro HUD 3 person MFI is $102,960).

The Oregon Bond 2023 maximum purchase price for Portland metro is $685,785, increasing to $838,182 for targeted areas. (The FHA mortgage limit is lower at $672,750).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Homeownership Month; First FHA Insured Home in Oregon Was in Astoria in 1935.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Thu, 15 Jun 2023 18:23:00 +0000

June 27 marks the anniversary of the 1934 signing of the National Housing Act that created the Federal Housing Administration.

MANY years ago I dug through microfilm to locate the first FHA insured home loan in Oregon and I found it was for $1,700 in Astoria in 1935.

Below are some background materials, starting with a video that I shot a few years ago. (I drove by again this year and the home is now a different color but it is still very attractive with a view toward the Columbia).

Astoria, Oregon FHA First Home Loan Video

https://youtu.be/HQWWGiLBLvE

1984 Astoria Librarian Letter w History

Astoria Letter on First FHA Home .pdf

Astoria Budget 1935 News Story

astoriabudget1935fhafirstfhahomeoregon.pdf

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Multnomah County Examples: Different Income Measures Yield Different "Affordable" Rents and Subsidy Needs.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 14 Jun 2023 16:30:00 +0000

NLIHC has published their annual Out of Reach Report today; the Oregon landing page is HERE.

OOR includes projections on affordable rents for minimum wage workers, renters at the estimated median renter household income, and at the estimated mean for renter wages.

Readers may recall that last week I published an Excel workbook that looked at affordability for average wage workers by county.

This week in the new graph below I show for Multnomah County

How these and other income measures produce different rent "affordability" results
The wide range of subsidy required to bring rents to an affordable 30% of income (using a 1 BR HUD FMR).

Observations

Monthly Affordable Rents Range from $274 to $2,002.

At the low end a single SSI recipient could afford a $274 rent, while at the high end a one person household at 100% of the Portland Metro HUD Median Family Income could afford a $2,002 rent.

An average wage worker could afford a $1,882 rent, while a minimum wage worker could afford a $803 rent.

Annual 1 BR Subsidy Needs Range from ZERO to $16,032.

Both the average wage worker and the HUD 1 person household at the Portland metro HUD 100% MFI require NO subsidy--they can afford a rent that exceeds the HUD 1 BR FMR ($1,610).

The HIGHEST annual subsidy needed is the $16,032 for the individual with ONLY SSI income and the next lowest is the 1 person HH at minimum wage requiring subsidy of $9,684 annually.

NOTE:

Use of a 2 BR FMR instead of the 1 BR FMR I used would decrease affordability, while the use of a studio FMR would increase affordability.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

2022 vs 2018: Oregon County Differences on Rent Affordability Resulting From Increasing Average Wages AND Increasing HUD Fair Market Rents.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 07 Jun 2023 17:15:00 +0000

The National Low Income Housing Coalition publishes an annual Out of Reach report that has detailed information on the affordability of rental units for minimum wage households and for rental households. I anticipate their annual publication will be arriving in early summer.

I though it would be useful to create a different comparison at the Oregon county level of affordability using the annual average weekly wage as published by the Oregon Employment Department and the US Department of Labor.

The average weekly wage is higher than the minimum wage. Even though it is calculated per worker and not per household it could also be higher than the NLIHC projected median rental household income level. If so, the average weekly wage would show greater renter affordability compared to both those indices.

I created an EXCEL spreadsheet HERE (and embedded below) that allows users to select up to 5 Oregon counties for a side by side comparison to see average wage and HUD FMR rent values and changes from 2018 to 2022.

The spreadsheet shows

Average weekly wages (assuming full time employment, and is person based and not household based).
HUD 1 BR FMR
HUD 2 BR FRM
Changes in average weekly wages
Changes in HUD 1 BR and 2 BR FMR
The share of income required to make a 1 or 2 BR rental affordable.
The weekly hours required to make a 1 or 2 BR rental affordable.

The 5 Oregon counties in the Portland metro area are the default county selections. (To make alternative county selections you may need to download the file instead of viewing it via your browser).

Observations:

Using Multnomah county as an example.

The average weekly wage increased by 26%, but the HUD 1 BR FMR increased at a faster rate, by 42%, and the 2 BR FMR also increased at a faster 39% rate.
The share of average weekly wages required for a 2 BR unit increased from 29% from 27%, and the share required to make a 1 BR unit affordable increased from 23% to 26%. While the share of income required has increased for both 1 and 2 bedroom units at HUD's FMR they both remain affordable at the average weekly wage in 2022.
At the average weekly wage the hours required to make a 2 BR unit affordable increased by 35 to 39, and the hours required to make a 1 BR unit affordable increased by 30 to 34. Again, while the hours required increased for both 2 BR and 1 BR units, the hours required to pay the 1 and 2 BR HUD FMR remain below full time employment at 40 hours a week.
IF you look at Clackamas county you will see that rent affordability is generally worse than in Multnomah county as their average weekly wage is BELOW that of Multnomah county. This is also true of Columbia and Yamhill counties.
Conversely, the higher average weekly wage in Washington county means that generally renter affordability for average wage earners is better than in the other 3 Oregon counties in the Portland metro area. (I took a glance at Clark county in Washington and their 2022 average weekly wage and rent affordability is about the same as Clackamas county).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Good News, 2018-2022 Oregon Average Weekly Wages Increased by 25%: Bad News:: Portland Metro 1 and 2 BR FMR's Increased by 42%/39%.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Mon, 05 Jun 2023 18:00:00 +0000

This week the Oregon Employment Department published the annual average wage for 2022 and it increased again to $1,269.69.

I thought it would be useful to see how much an affordable housing expense has increased compared to the increase in HUD Fair Market Rent.

I selected the Portland 1 and 2 BR FMR for comparison purposes.

The first two graphs below show these results.

2018-2022 Observations:

The 2022 Oregon average wage is NOT sufficient to make a unit at the Portland 2 BR HUD FMR affordable. The average wage worker would spend $188 more than is affordable for that unit in 2022, a BIG increase from the $8 extra they would have spent in 2018.
The 2022 Oregon average wage WAS sufficient to make a unit at the Portland 1 BR HUD FMR affordable. The average wage worker would have a surplus of $41 of income in 2022, but that is down from a surplus of $183 in 2018.
Even with a 25% boost in the Oregon average wage the affordability of both Portland 1 and 2 BR units for a Portland worker at the Oregon average wage has declined because Portland HUD FMR;s have increased even faster, by 42% (1 BR) and 39% (2 BR).

Share of Average Wage Required to Remain Affordable Continues to Grow

I added a third graph pasted at the end that shows by year the share of the average weekly wage required to pay the 1 BR or 2 BR HUD Portland metro FMR.

The share of average wage income required has continued to grow and exceeds 30% of the 2 BR FMF and for 2022 it is (barely) less (29.3%) than 30% for the 1 BR FMR.

Notes:

The AWW for counties in the Portland metro are likely different than the statewide AWW, with Multnomah and Washington county wages higher than the statewide AWW, and lower in Clackamas, Columbia, and Yamhill counties . I

IF this is accurate, affordability in Multnomah and Washington counties would be better than this data shows and worse in Clackamas, Columbia, and Yamhill counties.

Variation in FMR's and AWW outside of Portland counties would also create different results.

HUD FMR data shown for CY is from following FY. So CY 2022 FMR data shown is actually FY 2023 data point, and was effective October 1 2022. Same for prior years.

Created and originally posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

NEW: Oregon Eligible Paid Leave Workers Below $42,916 Income Could Get 100% of Wages Replaced for Up to 12 Weeks. Total Tax Collected Varies by Business Size and Type.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Thu, 01 Jun 2023 20:30:00 +0000

Oregon’s Average weekly wage (SAWW) used to determine Oregon Paid Leave, unemployment benefits, and worker compensation benefits was published today. SAWW increased from $1,224.82 to -$1,269.69,an increase of 3.8%/$45.

This post will focus on the impact for lower income Paid Leave eligible workers and also focus on the different TOTAL tax collected by three different employer categories.

Workers Up to $42,916 In Wages: 100% Wage Replacement, Employee Cost to Benefit Ratio of 38:1.

Note: To my knowledge Oregon is the ONLY state that provides for 100% replacement wages in a paid leave program.

Those earning up to $825 weekly or $42,916 annually (65% of SAWW annualized) can receive 100% of their wages for up to 12 weeks. [At full time hours, an annual wage of $42,916 is $20.63 per hour, $825 per week, and $3,576 per month]

At an average weekly wage of $825 the employee ANNUAL costs (at .6%) would be $257 and their full 12 weeks of paid leave benefits would total $9,904.

That's a potential 38 :1 ratio of employee paid costs to employee benefits.

When average wages exceed $825 per week the replacement ratio for wages declines below 100% as does the cost to benefit ratio. However, even at the average weekly wage of $1,269.69 employees could replace 83% of their wages and their cost to benefit ratio would still be 31 to 1.

The table below has my calculations at different wage levels. As always, look at the Employment Department materials for the OFFICIAL calculations.

Paid Leave Employee Benefits and Costs are the Same, but Small Business and Self Employed Businesses Pay 40% Less than Larger Businesses.

(This is not a function of the annual change in average wages but a feature of the Oregon Paid Leave system)

Employers with fewer than 25 employees do not pay .4% payroll taxes, but employees continue to pay their .6% share.

Self employed workers have the option of joining the Paid Leave program and if they do, they pay the same .6% as other employees but they do not pay the .4% that larger employers pay.

Benefit levels are the same for all employees.

For a worker at the new average weekly wage of $1,269.69

At a larger employer the total annual 1% paid leave tax will be $660.
For employees working at businesses with fewer than 25 employees, or for self-employed individuals who choose to opt into the system, the total annual per .6% employee tax paid would be only $396.
That's a per employee cost avoidance of $ 264 annually.

For Every 100,000 Employees, Small Business and the Self Employed Avoid $26.4 Million in Costs.

The table below show the total tax collected for the 3 employer types for every 100,000 employees. (There are 1.9M+ employed Oregonians but the number of employees that will likely be covered by Paid Leave is smaller).

Larger employers, including employee contributions, would pay $66 Million, while small employers and the self employed would pay $39.6 Million, a $26.4 Million cost avoidance.

This is a cost avoidance of 40%, the amount that large employers pay that the smaller employers and voluntary self employee participants do not pay.

The Oregon Paid Leave landing page is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Updated FHA Oregon SF Loan Estimator.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 31 May 2023 16:10:00 +0000

I have previously included an Oregon FHA SF loan estimator in Excel in a post HERE.

HUD has just published 2023 income limits so I replaced the prior Excel workbook with a new workbook HERE.

There are 7 user variable inputs in the workbook.

The default entries are $500,000 purchase price, 4 person family in Multnomah county at MFI, a 7% interest rate loan with a 3.5% down payment, 1.5% for property tax and insurance, and $300 monthly in reoccurring debt.

The estimator returns the income required based on the use of several possible compensating factors and the ratio to HUD median family income adjusted for family size and county.

I have pasted a picture of the results for the Multnomah county example below.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

3 County Portland 2022-2023 Point in Time Population Count Change Tables, with Receipts.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Fri, 12 May 2023 21:10:00 +0000

This week 3 Oregon Portland metro counties issued a press release with preliminary 2023 HUD homeless PIT counts.

I found it somewhat confusing to follow and understand changes from last year.

Using data sent to me by the counties as a result of public record requests or Commission briefing material I created a PDF file HERE, and embedded below that includes:

A comparison table that shows changes in the OTAL homeless population from 2022-2023.
A comparison table that shows changes in the CHRONIC homeless population from 2022-2023.
A comparison table that shows changes in the VETERAN homeless population from 2022-2023.
The 2022 PIT population counts I got from HUD.
The 2023 PIT counts I got from each county.

Quick Takes.

Regionwide reductions in the chronic homeless and the veteran homeless populations kept overall increases lower than they would have been otherwise.

The total homeless population increased region wide because Multnomah county increases swamped decreases in Clackamas and Washington counties. The overall increase in the homeless population is discouraging, although changes in methodology likely was a key reason for the increase.

Veteran homeless populations decreased in all counties regionwide, but the population of unsheltered homeless veterans crept higher in both Multnomah and Washington counties.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

NEW Oregon Housing Production Data: 17K Gap In Annual Housing Production VS. 36K Goal; 92% of Gap (16K) Was Regulated Unit Production.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Mon, 08 May 2023 16:30:00 +0000

BING AI generated image

HB 4006 has required Oregon's large cities (10,000+) to report permit AND production data since 2018. LDC has posted individual Excel data annually .

I consolidated that data into a single Excel workbook HERE and added 2022 data that LDC staff sent me as well as some analysis worksheets. In total there is now 5 years of housing permitting AND PRODUCTION data.

Here's a list of worksheets in the workbook:

The first worksheet shows a list of all worksheets in the workbook. The second and third worksheets are pivot tables for ALL units and REGULATED units.

Two later worksheets are the source of all other data. Both contain both permit and PRODUCTION data, as well as counts of SF detached, ADU's, Manufactured, Duplexes, Triplexes, and Quadplexes; the subtotal of these unit types are counted as "missing middle" in the worksheets I constructed.

One worksheet counts ALL units
The other counts Regulated units (units that have some kind of income restriction).

The far right columns in both of these worksheets includes a count of housing units from the Census and the Census geocode--this will allow users to compare production to the existing housing stock totals and to merge this data with other Census data.

In addition to the base worksheets there are summary worksheets that highlight share of all units produced that were regulated and illustrate the gap between production goals and actual production.

Another worksheet highlights ADU and missing middle production and another highlights those cities with the largest share of production from missing middle production. [The TABLE pasted below ranks cities with 100+ missing middle units produced by the share that missing middle units were of total production].

NOTES:

I added row totals for all cities for each year, so when looking at data for multiple years insure that you are not double counting those totals.

Also to the far right is an indicator whether the city is located within the Portland Metro (government) jurisdiction.

For 2022 there are still 8 cities out of 58 that have no reported data, 3 months after the Feb 1 deadline for reporting. I don't anticipate those cities would significantly add to unit counts for 2022. (Cities not reporting are Astoria, Canby, Central Point, McMinnville, North Bend, Pendleton, Sweet Home, and Troutdale).

Observations:

ALL Large Cities

Annual production over 5 years averaged 14,629 units annually in the large cities. Regulated housing (an average of 1,381 units) represented 9.4% of average annual production over those 5 years.

In 2022, the 13,562 units produced was lower than the 5 year average of 14,629, but the 2,361 regulated units produced was higher than the 5 year average of 1,381 units, as was the regulated unit production share at 17.4% vs the 5 year average of 9.4%.

City of Portland.

Annual production over 5 years averaged 5,297 units and regulated housing (an average of 846 units) represented 16 % of average annual production over those 5 years.

In 2022, the 3,303 units produced was lower than the 5 year average of 5,297, but the 1,410 regulated units produced was higher than the 5 year average of 846 units, as was the regulated unit production share at 44% vs. the 5 year average of 16%.

36,000 Annual Production Goal:

STATEWIDE Production Gap/Goal Shortfall Was 17,714 Total Units, with 92% of Gap (16,273) in Affordable Units.

Housing production in these large cities by definition doesn't include production outside of those cities.

The stated statewide goal is 36,000 units a year, with 18,000 of those affordable.

IF the assumption is that housing production in these cities is 80% of total statewide production than average annual total Oregon production over the last 5 years would be (higher) at 18,286 units, and regulated average annual production would also average (a higher) 1,727 units.
That leaves a statewide gap of 17,714 total units a year (14,629/80%=18,286. 36,000-18,2836=GAP 17,714)
The statewide gap for regulated units is 16,273 units a year ( (1,381/80%=1,727. 18,000-1,727=GAP 16,273)
This means that the NET statewide annual gap for units without affordability provisions is (only) 1,441 units (17,714-16,273=GAP 1,441).
The 16,273 affordable statewide housing gap is 91% of the TOTAL statewide gap. (16,273/17,714= Affordable GAP 92%).
So while affordable housing production is 50% of the goal, it accounted for 92% of the production gap.
IF actual 2022 production was used instead of the 5 year average, the total gap would increase while the affordable housing gap would be reduced. [See table below and worksheet "2018-2022 Quick Summary" for two gap analysis scenarios.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

CORRECTED: Decline in Multnomah County Employment VS 2020 Drags Down Portland Metro and State Employment Growth.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Tue, 02 May 2023 16:46:00 +0000

Corrected:

Reference period was not 2023 vs 2022, but 2023 vs 2020. I have changed text and table accordingly.

During the quarterly meeting of the Oregon Employment Department Advisory Council (I am an appointed public representative) the Employment Department made a presentation on the current status of employment in Oregon.

One slide showed that, unlike most counties, Multnomah County employment was below last years employment. I did some follow up and looked at the detailed data. (Below I provide instructions and a link to download this data; all data is seasonally adjusted).

Observations: (see table below for data)

Multnomah county employment, vs 2020, was down 20,400 in Feb and 15,700 in March.
I calculate that outside the Oregon counties in the Portland Metro area in the Washington state counties in the Portland Metro area employment vs the prior year was up 25,540 in Feb. and 31,510 in March.
Despite the decline in Multnomah county total Oregon employment was up 14,600 Feb and 34,300 in March.
I calculate that outside the 5 Oregon counties in the Portland Metro area in the other counties in Oregon employment vs 2020 was up 28,840 in Feb. and 38,410 in March.
It's not clear to me how these increases and decreases impact current or future housing demand.

Instructions to retrieve data:

Open this link: https://tinyurl.com/24r99e4u

Then, from the top of the menu to the right of the web page, select the indicated icon (see red arrow in pic below).

Then use the pulldown to select “All Areas for an Industry”.

Then download the Excel file.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Overhousing In Oregon: 20% of Voucher Tenants Had More Bedrooms than Residents.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Thu, 27 Apr 2023 16:15:00 +0000

HUD's Picture of Subsidized Housing data has a variable that shows the % of tenants who are overhoused--meaning they occupy a unit that has more bedrooms than tenants.

HUD rules allow disabled households to request a reasonable accommodation to occupy a unit with more bedrooms and some HUD assisted tenants who occupied units that entitled them to preservation vouchers are allowed to continue in units with more bedrooms than tenants.

HUD Picture data however does NOT show what share of overhoused tenants fall into those categories.

Even HUD Assisted Tenants Can Be Cost Burdened, OR Severely Cost Burdened

The remaining overhoused group are voucher tenants who CHOOSE to occupy a unit with more bedrooms than tenants. Those tenants are required to PAY 100% of the difference in housing costs between the smaller and larger unit.

This means that SOME HUD assisted tenants pay more than 30% of their income for rent and some could have an extreme rent burden of 50% or more, DESPITE their HUD voucher assistance.

Oregon Voucher Overhousing By PHA

The table below shows the overhoused HUD voucher percentage for Oregon PHA's: Note that three major PHA's in Portland are all at or below the state average of 20%.

In the Excel workbook with the HUD Picture data (see prior post HERE) there is a worksheet with this and more data on the PHA location of more than 7,000 overhoused voucher tenants.

NOTE: HUD's Picture data also provides overhousing data for other HUD rental assistance programs.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Updated HUD Picture of Subsidized Housing: All Oregon Data in One Workbook.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Tue, 25 Apr 2023 16:20:00 +0000

HUD does a good job of annually publishing comprehensive HUD assisted housing data in their Picture of Subsidized Housing.

I noticed that HUD recently updated that data through December of 2022.

The data is organized geographically all the way from US totals to project and census tract level totals. I count 70+ variables available in the data dictionary, some variables are null at lower levels of geography for privacy reasons.

By geography AND by HUD assisted housing program, the data can answer questions like this (and many more):

How much was average tenant rent and average subsidy?
What % of heads of households are minorities?
What % of units are 1 bedroom?
What % of heads of households are 62 or older?
What % of heads of household are women?
What % of households are overhoused? (More bedrooms than people),

I created a single Excel workbook HERE , and embedded below, that contains 20 worksheets relevant to Oregon, with data all the way down to the project level (350+ HUD assisted projects, 50,000+ units in Oregon).

The worksheets include geo organized data and a few summary and analysis worksheets that I may be highlighting on Twitter in the next week or so. (The county worksheet has a map showing the % of voucher households whose head is White, Not Hispanic).

Those 20 worksheets are listed in the picture below.

The Excel file default view below shows that Oregon had the HIGHEST state percentage (74%) of HUD assisted units that were assisted by the voucher program.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

1st QTR 2023 vs 1st Qtr 2020 Commercial Space Available by Portland Metro Submarket. Portland Total Space Available Increased by 7 Million Square Feet.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Mon, 24 Apr 2023 17:15:00 +0000

Using Kidder Mathew data I create an Excel file HERE , and embedded below, comparing changes in Portland office submarket office space available in 1st Qtr 2023 vs 1st Qtr 2020.

Increases

Kruse way increased by 98% to 27.5% ( Lake Oswego/West Linn decreased by 23% to 8.7%);
Downtown increased by 77% to 27.3%.
Pearl District/Chinatown increased by 123% to 27.6%.
Lloyd Center increased by 152% to 21.2%.
Portland total increased by 61% to 16.6%
The Portland total increase in space available was more than 7 million sq. ft.

Decreases

There were 11 submarkets where space available decreased.

Other

The Excel workbook will allow you to make other comparisons and do further analysis.

Kidder Mathew 1st Qtr. commercial market reports:

2023:

2020:

NEW Consolidated Funding Data from VA for 7 Homeless Veteran Programs. $2.1 Billion in 2022, An Increase of 1513% From 2002.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Wed, 19 Apr 2023 16:23:00 +0000

As it happens today is the day I joined the Army in Detroit, a few months after my high school graduation. So today is good timing for a VA related housing post.

Both VA and HUD have shared success stories on the reduction in veteran homelessness.

While HUD data on the housing costs of the VASH program are available, finding information on the costs of multiple VA homeless programs is much more difficult.

I was pleased therefore to see that this month CRS published a report on veteran homelessness, including funding obligations by FY for 7 VA homeless programs. While extracting that information from the CRS was complicated I was able to extract annual information and have pasted below a table and graph for three years--2002, 2012, and 2022.

Note that these VA obligations do NOT include $1.4 BILLION in COVID homeless veteran funding for three years, NOR any of the HUD VASH housing costs ($700+million in the most recent calendar year).

VA VASH case management costs ARE included in these totals--note that those $849M in those VASH case management costs for 2022 are HIGHER than the $700+M HUD paid in 2022 for VASH housing assistance costs .

Observations

Total VA homeless obligations in 2022 were $2.17 Billion vs $907 million in 2012 and $135 million in 2002.
2022 VA homeless obligations represent a 140% increase from 2012 and a 1513% increase from 2002. These increases are substantially HIGHER than the 26% [March 2012-March 2022] and 61% [March 2002-March 2022] increases in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average.
BOTTOM LINE: While waivers and other administrative cooperation and streamlining have clearly helped, the SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE in federal VA (AND HUD) homeless funding is a key reason why veteran homelessness has been reduced.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Update--Oregon Minimum Wage, Take 2: From 2016-2022 Oregon's Minimum Wage Increased at a HIGHER Rate than the Increase in the CPI for ALL Items AND For Rent of Primary Residence.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Tue, 18 Apr 2023 16:15:00 +0000

I took a careful look at the Oregon minimum wage statute and realized that the annual CPI adjustment is based on the US CPI and NOT the WEST CPI.

I have added a comparison of the minimum wage increase to the text and also added a graph to show the use of the US CPI for both all items and for rent of primary residence.

Because the US CPI increase was lower than the West CPI (20.7% vs 24.3%) the gap between the Oregon minimum wage and the US CPI was HIGHER than when using the West CPI.

The same larger gap occurs when using the US vs West rent of primary residence CPI ( 23% vs 28.1%).

-----------

2023 is the first year that the Oregon minimum wage is being adjusted by the West Urban ALL Items COLI. In past years the adjustment was a flat dollar adjustment fixed by statute.

This means that moving forward the annual increase in the Oregon minimum wage will track the increase in the West Urban All items index from March to March, with small tweaks possible because of rounding.

I thought it would be useful to see how the prior 2016-2022 flat dollar increases compared to the West Urban ALL Items COLI and the West Urban, Rent of Primary Residence COLI. (I used the 2016 and 2022 March COLI index values for comparison; March is the same month used by BOLI to calculate the annual change for 2023 and moving forward).

The results in the graph pasted below show that for ALL areas in Oregon the cumulative rate of 2016-2022 minimum wage increases was HIGHER than the increase in both the WEST ALL ITEMS and WEST RENT of primary residence COLI index changes.

Using the US CPI the gap between the Oregon minimum wage increase and CPI for both all items and rent of primary residence was even higher. The second graph shows those comparisons.

US CPI Comparison

The standard minimum wage increase was 38.5%, the Portland Metro increase was 51.3%, and the Non Metro increase was 31.6%.

These compared to a LOWER ALL ITEMS West Urban COLI increase of 20.7%, and a West Urban RENT of primary residence COLI increase of 23%.

West CPI Comparison

The standard minimum wage increase was 38.5%, the Portland Metro increase was 51.3%, and the Non Metro increase was 31.6%.

These compared to a LOWER ALL ITEMS West Urban COLI increase of 24.3%, and a West Urban RENT of primary residence COLI increase of 28.1%.

Bottom line: 2016-2022 minimum wage increases were higher than West All ITEMs and RENT of Primary Residences COLI from 2016-2022. Moving forward minimum wage increases will NOT be higher but instead identical.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon Minimum Wage, Take 1: Affordable Rent at 2023 Portland Metro Minimum Wage WENT UP $296/58.5% Since 2016: THIS Year it is GOING UP $36/4.7%.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Mon, 17 Apr 2023 16:30:00 +0000

BOLI recently announced changes in the Oregon minimum wage effective July 1st.

I extracted historical data for all three minimum wage BOLI geographies and constructed the table below showing minimum wages, minimum wage changes, affordable rents at the minimum wage, and changes in the affordable rent at minimum wage for the years 2016-2023. [A PDF version of the table can be downloaded HERE].

Observations

From 2016-2023 annual income at a full time minimum wage is going UP by $9,256 in STANDARD Areas, $11,856 for the Portland metro area, and $7,696 in NON URBAN areas.
Affordable Rent at the 2023 STANDARD minimum wage WENT UP $231/45.6% since 2016. THIS year it is going UP $36/5.2%. to $738.
Affordable Rent at the 2023 Portland Metro minimum wage WENT UP $296/58.5% since 2016.THIS year it is going UP $36/4.7%. to $803.
Affordable Rent at the 2023 NON URBAN counties minimum wage WENT UP $192/38.9% since 2016. THIS year it is going UP $36/5.6% to $686.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

My Testimony on the Oregon Proposed MID Reform Bill (SB 976): AFTER REFORM, Homeowner With $225K Income Still Nets $110, 000 in Benefits Over 5 Years.

housepdx@gmail.com (Tom Cusack) — Mon, 03 Apr 2023 15:05:00 +0000

The Oregon Senate Finance and Revenue Committee has a scheduled April 12th public hearing on SB 976, This bill would impose an income cap that phases out state deduction of mortgage interest at $250,000 and phases in reductions to the deduction beginning at $200,000 of income.

I constructed an example to show how much benefit would remain for a homeowner with a $720,000 mortgage (below the conforming limit of $726,200) at 6% interest and an income of $225,000.

My testimony in the PDF file HERE and embedded below includes a summary of results and graphs on pages 2 and 3 that provide more detail.

SHORT VERSION:

WITH NO home value appreciation, the $225K income homebuyer retains $110,513 in benefits over the first 5 years, an average of $1,884 a month.
$60,505 of those benefits are MID subsidy with the remaining $50,008 in benefits from equity/wealth accumulation resulting from the reduction in mortgage principal.
Over the same period, Oregon RENTERS are entitled to ZERO subsidy and ZERO equity/wealth accumulation.