Ali's Vantage

The Green Future

2010-02-22T02:26:00.000-08:00

For those of you who follow the venture capitalist, this may not come as news to you - the world needs an eco friendly energy source ASAP! I am pleasantly surprised as to the number of efforts involved in bringing this to fruition. The good news being they will make economic sense and will not just be sold to the environmentalist in us. Anything short of economic sense is just not viable at a mass scale, so I'm glad the industry is aware of this. Some of the interesting initiatives are given below:

1. Green revolution - Agriculture productivity is important, but agriculture based ethanol seems to be doomed since a significant portion of the world is still under the famine line.

2. Wind Turbines - Intermittent energy, and they occupy a lot of space and are known to produce sound pollution, which is an issue that can lead to extinction of certain breeds of animals from their habitat

3. Solar Panels - Intermittent energy, and just haven't delivered to date. And God knows the pollution they're causing somewhere in China where they're being manufactured on a mass scale!

4. Nuclear Power - The traditional nuclear power plant uses an extremely rare isotope, which makes waste disposal extremely complicated and political. The big jump in this industry will come from using the common isotope and thereby turn the waste of existing plants as its fuel! Check out Bill Gates talk at TED on the subject.

5. Energy Cells - check out the Bloom Box, as covered by 60 minutes.

In summary, a major (r)evolution in energy awaits us (it must, as there is little hope of a bright future in its absence). I get a warm and comfy feeling thinking about how cheap energy will convert our lives and make this a better place for us to live!

Children Growing up

2010-01-31T21:58:00.000-08:00

A major milestone for any parent. First day of school for their child!
I've just had mine start a few weeks ago, and its a life changer. From waking up early in the morning (I own up to pressing the snooze button on a daily basis and hence the reason for being late to office) to getting the child to do their homework.

But contrary to my expectations of "miserable school days", I'm actually loving it! Nothing beats seeing a child take up on learning and be excited about it. The only unfortunate taint to all this is the rat race that we set for ourselves. I need to keep reminding myself that I will NOT put a "parent of honor child" sticker on my car or push the child to "excel" in sports that I like rather than what he/she likes. Or so I will try!

iPhone and market creation

2009-07-28T07:36:00.000-07:00

So its old news now, but I got mine! Or was that a month ago, time does fly when you're having fun!

An iphone is no engineering revolution, the technologies used in it were not founded by Apple, they've existed prior to the iphone coming out. What apple was able to do was think out side the box and create something that created a market for its own, or how my business partner lovingly refers to his recently read book 'blue ocean strategy'. No sales person at nokia (the current king of cell phones) was screaming for such a device, or if he was then it wasnt loud enough.
Nokia's high-end phones are still clumpy compared to the iphone and even the newer android based HTC phones. This reminds me of a book I once read called 'the innovators dilemma '

From being a fan of nokia, I've gone to writing them off. And it does make me wonder how being part of a mid size software firm, we need to be thinking outside the box. Pushing all sacred limits. I'll post more on this later

In pursuit of perfection

2009-07-10T11:12:00.000-07:00

Why do some men go the extra mile and make sure their work is picture perfect? Thats a question thats kept me from sleeping tonight as I write this blog laying in bed. The related question being why do other men work as mules, requiring a whipping to complete and just barely makes the mark?

It is obvious that motivation plays a role, but something makes me doubt it as the key role. I've had work done by entrepreneurial mechanics (who own their shop, and I assume that should be motivation enough) and have been left pulling my hair at the outcome. Just recently did I get my 5KVa Enpower generator fixed by an independent mechanic/electrician. And its blowing smoke even though I specifically had its engine valve heads replaced. All that was required was for the moron to test run the generator and figure that it needs tuning, fixing, whatever but alas I ask too much of a mere mortal!

Sidenote: be warned, Enpower is the worst generator company out there ...if hell is hot and humid, its because AC's there dont have electricity as Enpower's probably provided the generators!

Or is it training? Can training be the differentiator between beauty and ugliness. Again, I had the sad experience of getting an AC installed by a crew that I am certain had training and plenty of experience. What I'm left seeing in shock is an AC thats tilted (the split's bracket was drilled in at an angle!). The electric wire crawls like a snake across the wall and black tape patches two wire pieces to increase the length for connecting to the power socket. And yet sadly they had done all the hard work of connecting the pipes and all. If only they had spent 10 minutes to make a clean finish, I'd remember them tonight as angels rather than bums.

So with a sleepy head, I conclude it must be the upbringing and environment! Humans are like chameleons and when surrounded by incompetence, they take it on as the gold standard. But when surrounded by excellence, they strive to go further than ever before.

I'm back!

2009-06-14T04:39:00.000-07:00

Its been some time since i last blogged. The last few weeks being hectic would be an understatement. Getting involved in projects in a more tactical manner, children getting sick with flu and all sorts of things I never heard of before, hosting visitors, car accident ..... (and the list goes on).

But life is good and even when things seem to be getting a little too hectic, its important to appreciate the moment. From the Internally Displaced People (IDP's) of Swat/norther areas to those who have lost their jobs in the ongoing recession, its unnerving to know how easily one can be unemployed or underemployed.

That said, I am planning to return back to writing a few blogs every week. Its important!

Sidenote: If you're in the lahore region, you MUST try out Hyperstar (chain of Carrefour) in fortress. They're the first to truly bring out customer care concept in Lahore and possibly Pakistan. I've done a ton of shopping there and have returned a few items as well (which were either not working or not upto quality). It was a breeze doing so, specially in comparison to horribly return policies in chains like Makro etc, you know what I'm talking about!!

Ok, better get going and take my family out (for whats left of the weekend).

Doing OnLine Business

2009-02-22T03:29:00.000-08:00

Recently I had to setup an online business for someone, and I was blown away with how much can be done for free and with minimal technical expertise. The days when an online business setup required USD 30,000 or so are over. Today's the age of USD $20 businesses!

An online business is like any other form of business. There is a service or good thats sold, and customers that line up to consume them. For the brick and mortar business, the sayings goes "location, location and location" on the ability for it to be successful. Thats because most goods that are even half good can be sold if there are enough customers in the shop.

Similarly for web based business, the second step (I havent mentioned the first step yet, so dont worry) is community building. Entrepreneurs do this through a number of ways, which include:
1. Advertising their website over standard marketting mediums ie Print, TV, Billboards etc
2. SEO - search engine optimization. Trying to get google to list your website on the first page when a relevant search is done
3. Gureilla Marketting - Hiring a bunch of interns to spam the net with subtle messages that get users on other, but related sites, to come over to your site
4. Site kickstarting - hiring editors to post messages and make the site look active so as not to scare your first few customers from an empty looking shop!
5. Advertising using google adwords, facebook ads etc

Walking backwards, the first step is about getting a web presence. This is whats gotten me excited today:

1. Purchase a domain thats easy to remember and spell. GoDaddy sells domain for only $9.95
2. Second step, go to google apps and signup
3. Create your email address for the purchased domain using google apps. Gives a professional look to have a domain based email used across the site rather than one from gmail or hotmail.
4. Create a free webpage using google apps sites. The page is very basic, but sufficient to get a decent landing page for sending out feelers on whats about to come. Be careful not to reveal your "secret plans" to avoid someone from taking the wind out of your sails until you get the actual site up
5. Read the tutorial for drupal and make a decent looking site using plugins and themes. There are a number of hosting sites that do the hosting for USD 10 to USD 15. You should plan on a week to two for this.

I'll keep you posted on what else I learn as I help along on this business setup.

KISS - keep it simple STUPID!

2009-02-02T00:18:00.000-08:00

Usability is crucial for any application. Its becomes more so with web applications, since they're targeted for a userbase expected to have below college level education. This is great news for some of us who do have college level education as we can simply browse and not play mind games when we're focused on other matters.

For ages I've been in the enterprise development industry, and boy, are most applications there built to ensure that anyone who uses them needs to first read the big fat(!) manual (RTFM)! This of course is changing as most enterprise users now expect ease of use in the office that they've come to expect using facebook, gmail and yahoo at home.

Recollecting an old memory, I was consulting for a big health insurance firm on their web portal for their customers, and we hired a high flying security expert. I guess the expert wanted to justify his "expert" title, and came up with a list of eight (8) properties a password MUST have. I thought he was crazy, but as is the case with consultants, they do have a reputation to live up to. The health insurance firm played along, again I guess someone wanted to justify the cost of hiring the expert. And even during development of the application, I explicitly put in a hack for my password as I just couldnt remember a password with a number, a character, a capital and it being 9 letters long along with a number of other irritating requirements. And oh yes, if you forgot your password, the new one was mailed to you - No, not email, snail mail!!

I was glad I didnt have to log into that portal after I was done developing it, and truly feel sorry for its customers. But a few months ago, the password over-engineering zeal came back to bite me. It wasnt some web banking application, it was ..... delicious !!! Yahoo has been the forerunner in usability, but I guess after their acquisition of delicious, they just couldnt beat enough sense into them.

Here are two screen shots that explain everything.

The above given screen shot shows the crazy password rules for delicious. What were they thinking!! All my URL's are public anyway, its not as if a compromise of my account will suddenly leave me penniless or open them up for liabilities.

The next screen shot has its own humor:

See where is says "keep me signed in for 2 weeks". Hello ...I dont work for NSA, FBI or CIA. I want to remain logged in for ever and ever and ever. If I ever throw away my laptop, I'll format the drive so please keep me loggggeeeeddd in!

Enough of a rant, I've taken action. Moved over to twine, at least their password policy is good. Lets see how their features are. I'm going to miss delicious in the end, if it wasnt for some security wannabe jerk because of whom I had to click on the forgot password after every 2 weeks, I'd still be a user!

For Humility

2009-01-19T23:43:00.000-08:00

I recently came across the following blog post: http://jcs.biologists.org/cgi/content/full/121/11/1771, which had the following concluding paragraph:
"Focusingon important questions puts us in the awkward position of beingignorant. One of the beautiful things about science is thatit allows us to bumble along, getting it wrong time after time,and feel perfectly fine as long as we learn something each time.No doubt, this can be difficult for students who are accustomedto getting the answers right. No doubt, reasonable levels ofconfidence and emotional resilience help, but I think scientificeducation might do more to ease what is a very big transition:from learning what other people once discovered to making yourown discoveries. The more comfortable we become with being stupid,the deeper we will wade into the unknown and the more likelywe are to make big discoveries."

To me the importance of being humble just cannot be overstated, to understand that at no point in our lives do we stop learning, implying that at no point in our lives are we the "know all".

A personel story of mine relates to this, that being that once I found myself working with bodyshop contractors in the US during the 2000 dot com boom. These guys were real knuckleheads ...the kind of developers who need guidance in writing a simple regular expression parser etc. Working with them had the strange effect on me where I became extremely overconfident. There was no problem I thought I couldnt do and no issue where I could ever be wrong. I learnt the least during this phase of my career. Then I jumped boats and joined one of the leading tech firms in the US, and was I in for a surprise. I suddenly found myself surrounded with the best minds in tech, and my confidence completely shattered. And I loved it ...it was liberating to know that there is so much to learn and so much to do.

And that experience keeps me going today too, whereby I have a large body of techy's reporting to me, when most engineers do not argue against my point of view, I know its either because I havent done my job in hiring the best minds or that I've set the wrong precedence for anticipations in such meetings.

Emotional Emails

2009-01-15T21:46:00.000-08:00

When I get emotional I can almost feel my brain shutting down (the thinking part of it). Its a pity that strong emotions force me in a primate like state and throw away all the effort the human race spent in its evolution. However, it gives me some comfort to see I'm not the only one who has this issue, and so here's my tip to responding to an email in the morning that gets you all emotional and angry:

Steps to take after reading an extreme email that gets steam coming out of your ears:

1. Cool off before doing anything - walk around if required for a few seconds
2. Re-read assuming you're someone else
3. Write a respond but do NOT send
4. Cool off for another few seconds, walk around etc
5. Read other emails to make sure there isnt a followup to it or another response
6. Reread your draft response. If it doesnt sound too emotional (business communications should be void of there), then hit the send button!

Happy mornings to you!

Number Juggling

2009-01-07T23:54:00.000-08:00

Satyam's in the news for carrying out a whooping 1 BILLION USD fraud, in a company with revenue of approx 2 billion USD ie 50% of the revenue amount now being reported off the cash reserves! Guess who their financial auditors are, none other than PWC!
The problems of financial misreporting are not new, neither in developed or emerging markets. Whats concerning to me is why a CEO was allowed so much power to have reported these numbers without anyone of his VP's stepping up to stop him. Are companies so blind to the CEO's acts that such illegalities are done without fear.

On a personal note, I've always erred towards caution to avoid getting caught up in such misreporting (not that I havent ever fallen trap in one of these though). The golden rule of "if it sounds too good to be true, then its likely not true", the one I like and have been saved from the following scams using this principle:

Investing in the summer home scam - the one where you were shown videos of the high life and asked to invest a few thousand dollars to avail residence in a million dollar home during your summer vacations.
Getting membership to Quixtar/Amway/MLM - they sell dreams to the "business partners", not a compelling business strategy. There is no such thing as a get rich quick scheme, specially when its being sold to a huge number of individuals.
Futures - CMC markets (UK) or others out there that get individuals to invest around 10K USD in futures by leveraging the said amount on price differentials. Yes, the possibility of becoming a millionaire looks to be a reality, but the likelihood of getting a quick loss of your invested amount seems more likely.
You've just won a million billion dollars - calls/voicemails/emails/sms's etc. Need i say more on this!

That said, there are times when an opportunity comes knocking, and a certain risk has to be taken. But all in all, one's brain must assess if real value is being created without breaking laws. (assuming both explicit and the unlegislated rules of ethics). The key being short term artificial gains are easy to make while long term it's nearly impossible to keep the castle standing if its built on quick sand.

Employee Reviews and Grading Medians

2009-01-04T23:27:00.000-08:00

I've been reviewing employees using a certain grading system for some time now. I belong to the school of thought that ascribes to "tough love", ie grading systems should be anything but lenient. So for a grading system that rates out 5, the following is the criteria:

(1)Very poor job: Need to be caught sleeping more than once on the job to get this!
(2)Poor job: Not satisfied with the performance
(3)Meets job requirements: Typical grade for a ok job done
(4)Above Average: When there is something really good about how the job was done (expect around 10% of the employee base to be here)
(5)Exceptional: If I somehow hired James Gosling who rewrote the whole corporate strategy! (extra credit - dont expect anyone to be here unless they're a class apart)

So during December's review cycle, I got hit by a thought - why must I always have to argue with employees who claim they've earned a "4" when I'm giving them a "3.5" or so. To me a number like 3.5 is good, but to a majority its poor and they walk away from a review demoralized. Since I've worked in larger organizations where a standard is followed and any issues are to be taken up with HR, I've never thought on this much. But now, working in a smaller organization gives a whole new meaning when I see a majority thats demoralized.

Thought: Should grading be lenient
Advantages
1. Everyone comes out as a winner - We live in a society where every other parent has a "proud parent of an honor student" sticker on their car's bumper (not in Pakistan as yet, but the mindset is the same). Its not possible for all students to have become smart, lowering of the grading system and instilling this thought in the masses is a far more likely cause. Why swim against the tide?
2. Motivated employee base - the purpose of a review is to improve employee productivity IMHO. It requires that we identify the shortcomings and highlight the positives. However if the end grade is considered demeaning we can forget about a motivated and hence a productive employee base (outside of the 10% employees who get 4 or over).
3. Easier time for the grader - we too are human beings and arguing takes out our positive energy. Trying to argue with someone on why its not a low grade but how its a decent grade leaving room for improvements until the next review sometimes feels like a bad hair day!

Cons:
1. Incorrect messaging - It is important for individuals to understand they have shortcomings. A high grade may misguide an employee into a comfort zone where only larger trouble lays ahead, either for the employer or the employee.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on whether my grading system should be changed such that a 5 stands for a very good job rather than exceptional with appropriate adjustments to the other numbers.

2009 - Qualities to Wish For!

2008-12-31T21:39:00.001-08:00

First posting of 2009, and its so cliche to be posting my resolutions for the coming year(s). Though there is a twist to it, they're not new year resolutions but more than that. They're my envy list of the qualities I wish I had. Without further adieu:

1. Dedication to Work - My work pays for my bills (religious beliefs aside for a moment, and even with them there is a need to "earn" one's livelihood). Yet sometimes I get the feeling I'm not as dedicated as I should be, and with some bright examples of individuals who're always a few minutes early to office, complete all their work and then every now and then even respond to queries off hours.
2. Hours of Sleep - a 24 hour day is just too small if one spends 10 hours in bed and getting ready. Ten is probably the time I take in terms of sleeping, getting ready for work and then before getting to sleep. I wish I was one of those individuals who could sleep 5 hours and get ready in 30 mins (including a breakfast on the go).
3. Memory - I hate having to dig up my notes just to confirm what was exactly said in a meeting three months back. If only I could have a photographic memory spanning multiple months (or years as a special bonus).
4. Fair - In management, decisions are made on a daily basis that impact the lives and quality of life of others. It may be a small decision for a manager to take, but a huge one for the employee. I hope my decisions to date have been just and fair, and the ones I make in the future are even more rational along with being just and fair.
5. Communication - The ability to communicate clearly is never really achieved. Theres always room for improvement. And in my case, along with a sizeable portion of individuals, we have a long long way to go.
6. Health - must not end up in the ER with a heart attack! Should run 5K twice a week! Wishful thinking on my part.

Mobilink - Horrible Customer Relationship Management

2008-11-26T06:59:00.000-08:00

Mobilink is the largest mobile service provider in Pakistan, although its quickly been loosing its market share to its competitors (Ufone, Warid, Telenor and Zong). If I were to analyze mobilink, here are my thoughts:

1. Slow mover. They've been around for the longest time. They were successful in out smarting Paktel and some other company - but it was an easy win given the lack of decent management in any one of those firms.
But even with this advantage, they've been caught with their pants down ever since the new telco's arrived in Pakistan. Their customer base was just itching to jump ship and couldnt be more glad with competition arriving
2. Good enterprise penetration. This is probably the only plus for mobilink as they've managed to hold on to the enterprise market. But slowly and surely, their higher rates and lack of good customer service will catch up
3. Quality and Coverage. Their call quality and coverage isnt all that great, but hey neither is that of the others - so not much competition!
4. GPRS/Edge. Telenor's the clear leader in launching of edge services, but mobilink does seem to have awaken to the need. They're still playing catch up though
5. Blackberry. Mobilink was first to launch exclusive blackberry service and held the monopoly in Pakistan for some years. Only recently has Ufone entered this market. I'm not a crackberry person, so not something I get high on

6. Little connection with the young crowd. My firm deals with a certain telco product and so I know from at least some data that we have that mobilink has lost the touch with the younger crowd. Its a matter of time before this crowd gets into the enterprise and drive out mobilink from there as well!An Advertisement by mobilink - better spend the money upgrading that CRM!

In the end, if you're wondering why I decided to leave, well I got a call barring error one fine day while making an international call. Since I've been a mobilink post-paid user for 3 years, I thought it must be some mistake. But to my surprise on calling their helpdesk I was told to increase my security (I used a CC, so all they had to do was get pre-authorization on it), but to treat a premium user who has paid his bills for 3 years on time like this just made my blood boil.
I got hold of the supervisor, gave him a good lecture on customer service and he had my international dialing turned on in a few hours.
Then a few days later I get a call from a mobilink agent asking me to verify:
1. My name
2. My NIC
3. Other numbers being used in the house
4. Other telco providers whose SIM was being used in my family (I told the agent to mind their business on that one)
5. Address

Then a few hours later, their courier came by to verify the home address in person AND got my NIC number as well.

A few days later, I get a call by another mobilink CSR asking the SAME questions. I was a little perturbed but cooperated. Then a few days later my international dialing gets turned off again! I call the helpdesk only to find out that the PTCL number I had on file could not be verified. Well, the morons in PTCL had equally lousy service and so i decided to stop paying my bills to them. And since when is there a requirement to have a working PTCL (Land line) number to get a cell? I'm told by mobilink its a PTA requirement??. Anyhow I ask that next time they feel like disconnecting my service they should atleast call and inform me before carrying the disconnection out. In case you're wondering I gave them my office PTCL and got international dialing enabled.

Ahh - I wish that were the end, but then I get a call a few days back by mobilink asking the SAME questions. I was fuming and told the lady to type in "customer refuses to answer the same questions he's answered twice already. If the CRM does not work, then its not the customers fault. There ought to be laws against such harrasments!". Anyway, the courier guy came to my house after a few hours and I sent my house maid to sign off on the letter attesting I lived in the house.
Then today I figured my international calling was disconnected AGAIN!! So I've gone to ufone and gotten my number transferred and am now going to campaign for others to do the same!

Economic slump, Hyper Inflation and Possible Fears - Pakistan

2008-11-16T03:22:00.000-08:00

For the past few months we here in Pakistan have experienced a lot. From a rapid devaluation of the Rupee (30%), frequent power outages, terrorism and then economic slow down. What we have NOT experienced is a responsible fiscal policy by the current PPP government.
Pakistan, as is the rest of the world, going through troubled financial times. The processed goods sector here, which is the textile industry given its single largest share in exports, has taken a huge hit. Europe and the US are all going through "shrinkages" in economies leaving retail vendors there to be extremely price sensitive in addition to a reduced turnaround in sales. There is nothing anyone can do about this.
The software export industry (offshore software firms) was probably a couple hundred million, maximum a billion. The too may shrink due to the hit enterprise focused firms have taken since a lot of them have shut down (I've heard Fannie May and Freddie Mac had some software components being built out of Pakistan). Although a number of commentators have speculated that offshoring may grow due to this downturn for cost saving reasons, I'm beginning to speculate it will grow as a percentage but will shrink in absolute terms.
Agriculture, this is probably the most painful topic. Pakistan being an agriculture based economy has the dumbest minds focused on increasing the productivity. From the feudals who own the lands, the politicians responsible for the relevant ministries to the "scientist" involved in tactical matters. We've had GM seeds grown here without any prior impact analysis. We've used pesticides without concern for environmental impacts. We've created a system where large land owners (read feudals), get prefrential treatment even though agriculture output from their lands is lowest in terms of output/hecter (need to verify this statement!). And then water shortage in this area thanks to India and power shortages in running tube wells.

This leaves little breathing space for a government known more its lack of competence and merit (read part about giving government jobs on nepotism!). If Hyperinflation sets in, it will impact:

Money holding costs - holding onto cash is a costly and risky proposition, thereby forcing individuals and firms to be nonliquid- from the frying pan to the fire.
Large risk premiums to cater to unknown inflation rates - causes inefficiency in the system
Misallocation of input and output goods - again causes high inefficiency in the system
Contineous adjustment costs - hiring/firing, changing listed prices and misc activities to publish price change

*Read more on such costs from here.

Now that Pakistan's gotten a few Billion (7) from IMF, it must act quickly to announce a strategic economic growth plan. Otherwise we're just waiting for the sky to fall in a few months once the temporary relief from the loan dies down.

Weekend Movie - Idiocracy

2008-10-19T21:14:00.000-07:00

One movie to watch if you're interested to know how the current presidency and PM's cabinet work in Pakistan under Zardari and Gillani, check out: Idiocracy

Maybe its all just a bad dream and I'll wake up to find that Pakistan is being run by smart, honest and intelligent individuals.
Anyhow, it brings goosebumps to my neck to even think about an organization being run by such folks (see the movie on the makeup of the cabinet), and to try to take this in a more positive way, how to ensure that only the talented and deserving are promoted to take on leadership roles. Are there tell tale signs of smooth talkers who take credits of others and are the perfect examples of parasites? If so, I'm all ears!

Bad hair doesnt make for a genius

2008-10-11T01:22:00.000-07:00

The Western world is not the only one with short sighted executives running their major financial institutes into the ground. We here in Pakistan, all too foolishly assume anyone with a Citi Group, IMF or WorldBank experience is a genius capable of converting a third world country like ours into an Asian Tiger (ok, that phrase is so 90's).

Our very own Shaukat Aziz proved how corporate bankers make for lousy economist and country development strategist. Under Shaukat Aziz, the country was converted into a credit junkey nation that was driven by consumerism. Hmm, wonder why he pushed the country there ....wait a minute, wasn't he posted in nyc and assumed the cause for the great US economy to be its symptoms. Its like extrapolating from Einstin pictures that anyone with crazy hair is a genios, and enforcing all men to have crazy hair!

So to stop myself from getting back into memory lane and mentioning all that I believe to have been wronged by incompetence in the political arena here, let me get to the reason why I'm posting today.
I got a call from my credit card bank ie Askari Bank, to take out a loan on low interest rate! What?? The global economy is crashing, ours probably crashed eons ago ...and a bank wants to offer me money with no collateral! Too bad I cannot short their stocks as the genius's in Pakistan's Karachi Stock Exchange thought it best to shut the house down indefinitely through the use of floors. Must be "genius" season world-wide!

Pakistan caught in the global recession head lights

2008-09-14T08:43:00.000-07:00

These days are bad. The downward direction of oil isnt happening fast enough. We are still above the magic $100 marker per barrel. Lehman is about to be broken up (after a number of heavy weights in the US have already crippled). Indications are lit of Canada, Europe, China and Japan quickly sliding into recession.
....And there is Pakistan. If the crazy war on "terror" wasnt enough, we have a completely incompetent government running the show. It is pushing the already fragile economy towards a severe form of stagnation by:

Imposing taxes on fuel. I know I've heard the story on how this isnt a bad thing and poor folks can be provided subsidies to offset this blah blah. The reality is that any form of subsidization to the poor is an extremely naive and broken process in the third world. Who is poor and who is not, and when there are more poor than funds; who gets it and who doesnt is all subjective and prone to corruption. Anyhow, higher than necessary fuel prices have brought about inflation in the economy here that is bringing everything to a standstill. The government can increase its own revenue by reducing its direct taxes on fuel and moving it to other processed goods which do not impact inflation.
Lower locks on the stock exchange. Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) has had lower locks active for about a month now ie there is no exit in the market for the majority shareholders. All this to please a few who think that by ducking their heads in the hole in the sand they can avoid the typhoon! This will have long term confidence concerns not easily returned.
Lack of any policy on the subject of recession. I have not heard a single statement by our government on the subject other than that we will control prices or the most hollow of slogans ie "roti, kapra and makaan". We're living in the 21st century with rulers unfit to rule even in the 19th century.

I fear that even when the rest of the world will turn around and boom after this cycle of world recession, we will still be in the hole thanks to the incompetence of our President, PM and the rest of the lot in the federal government. Lack of timely decisions can lead to the worst case scenario of uncontrolled inflation, as being faced by countries like Zimbabwe. It's time to bunker in!

Independence Day

2008-08-10T09:49:00.000-07:00

Every year there are Independence day celebrations on 14th of August. On this day in 1947 Pakistan came into being. The British colonizer's left, though without French support :)

So here we are again, driving through the same memory lane of naustalgia and how the Nation has progressed. This year too, like all others, we will have TV shows that will emphasize the positives and gloss out the negatives of the past 60+ years.
This year I plan on spending the Independence day reading through current affairs book. But in terms of reflection, here are my thoughts on how Pakistan would be graded if it were being audited by management consultants:

Mismanagement - we probably wrote the book on how not to manage a nation. Ok, a little harsh there, I think there are a couple of other countries out there who have out done us eg Somalia, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Zimbabwe etc. But still, we're in that list. The army has constantly misunderstood its role, the politicians have acted on short term selfish motives, and the society as a whole has played into religious/patriotic themes by those who pledge allegiance only to themselves or their "tribes".
Institution infighting - a nation consists of three pillars ie judiciary, executive and legislative. In our case, we somehow managed to get the army in there as well. And then, somehow all institutions/pillars managed to abdicate their core responsibilities while trying to take on the responsibilities of other institutions.
Organizational misalignment - A good executive knows which knobs to twist and which ones to leave alone. A smooth running organization needs all its business units to be aligned correctly and running towards the stated organizational goals. And every so many months, everyones progress needs to be reviewed and the organizational goals updated as a consequence. I do not believe we've ever had a government thats understood this. Unfortunately most heads of the "business units" ie ministries, are incompetent and have generally been elected by an uneducated lot who quickly forget how history repeats itself (thats to be expected for a country with a high illiteracy rate)

Its easy to give opinion and a "charge sheet" while sitting on the sidelines, but nonetheless constructive criticism is always good. Now the million dollar question being how to bring about good governance principles into practice when none exist. Comments anyone?

Of Yes Men

2008-07-20T01:03:00.000-07:00

By Yes men, i do not mean the imposter's for WTO etc, but rather men and women who always respond with a "yes sir" to their superiors. And worse, provide advises which are always in the affirmative. Surrounding oneself with such individuals generally leads to a corrupted thought process of an illusion of always being right and a gradual degradation of analytical thinking.

I bring this up, as I ~~always~~ usually (try to) ask my direct managers for advise before making major decisions. This is not to say that all decisions need to be approved or have an organization run democratically, but it is advisable to bring on board key stakeholders who will rally the "troops", ie employees of your organization around the change.
At a company I used to work for a long time back, we had a joke around each corporate directive related to a change in policy, that being that the monkeys like to rotate knobs hoping to hit the jackpot by chance. Obviously the executives there did not take on board the front line managers (that tends to happen quiet frequently in fortune 500 companies), who were far from convincing when relaying the need for the changes, as they themselves were far from convinced.

To keep myself from being surrounded by yes men, I try to do two things. One, I keep a "yes meter rule" handy when dealing with direct reports who I meet often. If they are all praise and have too many "yes" over a few weeks, then its best I not ask them for advise.
And second, I try to refrain from showing agitation or irritation at being given information that is not of liking. This includes rebuttals on decisions taken by me and bad news. Nobody wants to be the bad news messenger, but it takes courage to do so!

All said, lately I've been preoccupied with the local political landscape here in Pakistan. I watch the daily events with a sense of helplessness. Our Prime Minister, Yousaf Gillani, is a yes man at best, and a moron otherwise. I would not trust him to run a 50 man software company, let alone a nation of a 160 million. Its probably similar to how most (democrats) felt after seeing George W Bush ~~win~~ steal the white house. Anyhow, if you're seeing massive immigration out of Pakistan, then you now know why.

High Oil Prices and its Impact on Offshoring of IT

2008-07-06T04:33:00.000-07:00

Recently, we've been swamped with project bids. I am unsure if other offshore firms are in the same boat or not, but it could just be "referrals" at work due to our higher than usual marketing effort in the previous quarter. However of late I have been excessively concerned with the future of the offshored IT services given the rapidly changing dynamics of the world with astronomical oil prices.

Just to give a glimpse of the impact on a developing country, the cost of inelastic price goods such as food, fuel, electricity etc have appreciated well over 30% and rising. In a developing country, the vast majority of the population is just hanging by a thread around the poverty line. With monthly inflation heading towards 30% I dont even want to imagine its impact on the society.

In contrast, in a developed nation inflation has a limited impact due to appropriate market forces already in play. The cost of fuel will make a dent, but the substitutes to commodities impacted will be made readily available and unless the economy hits stagnation, by and large the majority will pull through. Examples include availability of generics in medicines, tax incentives for fuel efficient cars/appliances, entrepreneurs betting on disruptive technologies etc.

Being in a developing country ie Pakistan, has had the selling point of lower labor costs, which has been instrumental for "wave 2" offshoring, ie inline with concepts of labor arbitrage. But with the cost of living rising significantly, and market inefficiencies that hamper the availability of cheaper substitutes (read corrupt and inefficient/non-innovative governments/private sectors), the labor arbitrage may not hold for much longer. The salaries will need to rise, and in doing so will impact the arbitrage. And with offshore productivity generally considered to be lower, the honeymoon may come to a screeching halt. This arbitrage is key for "wave 2" specific offshore countries in sustaining the lifestyles they've quickly gotten used to.

I fear a reversal of offshoring where possible, lets face it, no firm is going to track back on billions of dollars of investment in offshore office overnight. But if the oil prices remain high, the reversal may happen and catch up pace unless the "3rd wave" is quickly achieved.

My view of the positives and negatives stacked up on the offshore market are given below.

Positives

Still cheaper to do business in developing nations by around 30% to 60%
Access to large pool of technical resources (most developing nations have had a sustained high population growth rate - in simple terms, population average age is young and entering job market)
Over time, offshoring has become more straight forward and the unknowns and risks have come down. Hiring US based managers with experience in dealing with offshore engineers too has improved, thereby reducing barriers to offshore

Negatives

Offshore productivity is slightly lower. Thats both because onsite managers cant manage as efficiently and the typical offshore engineer is not as versed with the problem being resolved. A typical US based engineer is better able to relate to the concerns/problems as the target market is generally the US population for products
US engineering costs may come down. An employers market in the US quickly forces engineers to reduce their salaries. They are able to take advantage of work from home opportunities as well (See my previous post) with a high degree of reliability, thereby reducing their gas bills and cost of living. This will further reduce the arbitrage.
US businesses may cut down on IT budgets and initiatives as corporations feel the oil pinch. This will speed up the previous point
Political unrest in the developing world due to hyper inflationary pressures. This is probably consequence, and I do hope it never comes around to this!

Work from Home

2008-06-25T02:49:00.000-07:00

Working from home (WHM) has been practiced since the 90's in the US from what I know. But it was in the early 2000's that it really caught on. As is with fads, the pendulum swings to the extreme ie I knew plenty of co-workers who would go out on day trips when they were suppose to be "working from home".
Confession: I went on skiing trips while WHM and would use a brittle WAP based email tool on my cell to respond to any fires. Of course, I'd have to catch up in the evening with the backlog ...but still, its not something I'd want to do again

Getting to the meat of the subject, here are some of the models for WFH:

Light - must come to office each day. But can go home early on some days when workload isnt as high
Medium - can work 2-3 days in a week from home.
Heavy - work from home as many days as one likes. All coordination between team over conference calls, emails and IM

With Fuel prices at record levels, WFM seems like an ideal solution. However its pretty easy to get burnt when managing a team using the 3rd model (ie heavy). In the developing world, the infrastructure is poor, which means you may be stuck with a production emergency only to find that your key developer doesnt have internet or electricity at the moment and no ETA either.
And since the average programmer in the developing world has fewer years of experience, lack of maturity is a significant concern specially in terms of productivity.

My recommendation, specifically for software development in the developing world, is to go for the light WFM option ie issue everyone laptops but make it clear that these are only for situations where support is needed offhours and the one off weekend. This allows for team building to take place, while ensuring adequate checks and balances by having them in sight of their managers. I'm not a proponent of the micro-management style, but the job of a manager becomes a good number of notches difficult when responsible for deliverables being developed by home working engineers. Today's IT managers are generally overworked as it is, specially in the outsource market. So I'd much rather err towards the manager's side and hold him/her responsible for the deliverables without fear of excuses related to WFM concerns.
The benefit of the light WFH, other than having higher employee morale (engineers love laptops!), is that it enables the off hour support that is generally required every now and then for offshore development (due to timezone differences).

In summary, be careful with a WFM program in the developing world, because the infrastructure isnt close to the 99.99 reliability and specially when the average experience of developers is below 5 years.
That said, I do look towards rolling out an aggressive WFM for our engineers in 1-2 years as Pakistan has seen a significant boom in telecommunications and the software industry looks to be maturing. But in the meantime, I remain on the sidelines.

Office Space

2008-06-22T05:50:00.000-07:00

My favorite topic! What makes people get up in the morning and spend a significant portion of their life in a place other than home. This subject is spoken with great emphasis in the startup world. I remember being pitched by a dot com in "those" days, on how my room can be of any color of my liking. The only thing that hit me back then was, you got to be kidding me ...I really dont care what the color is as long as its not bright red!

(Picture of a typical callcenter setup. NOT a great cubicle layout, specially if you're doing software development)

Hiring and retaining top talent is a tough challenge. For a high growth company, an exceptional team is its competitive advantage. For a low growth company, IMHO, too many intelligent employees makes the life of the managers more difficult. I say that because operational tasks constitute the major chunk of workload in a low growth company, and above average intelligent folks begin to nag their managers for challenging tasks more quickly. And since there arent enough challenging tasks, its a nightmare for the front line managers to keep their workforce excited.

Returning back to the subject, here are my thoughts on an office space in an offshore software development house (hopefully a high growth one!):
1. Cubicles - yes, its not necessary to give everyone an office. Its too expensive and with emphasis on agile development, its not as productive either. My wishlist for an ideal cubicle is:
a. Minumum 6x6 (feet) per developer. Having it shared by two developers in a 6x12 works well
b. 5 feet high
c. Laptop friendly ie all power sources on the desk so employees dont have to get under it twice a day.
2. Window space. I'm not a big fan of having a window with a view. I remember being in North Carolina on a client visit and having the meeting in a conference room that had two window walls overlooking a lake. Everyone kept getting distracted and well, I dont even remember the topics covered except for the view. I'm perfectly content with having no windows in the office.
3. Meeting rooms. There's a school of thought in interior designing that believes that common space is a more important place than the private areas of individuals. Whether you believe in this or not, as the team grows you need to ensure the meeting rooms exist for teams to meet up and be comfortable during it. This means having meeting rooms capable of accommodating 90 percentile team sizes and having sufficient number of them to avoid collisions.
4. Lighting. I've seen offices that have dull lighting, and you DONT want your office to be one of them. Make sure the lighting is good.
5. Laptop friendly. For offices that restrict wireless for security reasons, get a life and check out WPA.
6. Line of sight for managers. This may sound like micromanagement, but managers must be aware of their team's activities. This requires manager be seated within the vicinity of their team and not on some other floor or in a "managers" area where they're completely disconnected from team.
7. Common area for employees to engage in activities like table tennis, dart throwing etc. I prefer not to have a TV in the office as major sports events generally distract a large percent of the workforce.
8. Chairs - get the best (high back with firm support and plenty of flexibility in height, arm rests, recline etc)!

Since we're talking about "offshore" offices, there is a strong likelihood its a developing country, so it must also have:
7. Power and internet backups
8. Good cleaning services

For another perspective on office space, check out http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/BionicOffice.html

In the line of.... Fire Musharraf!

2008-06-04T09:04:00.000-07:00

For those that understand urdu, these are MUST see documentaries/talk shows that have recently been aired. I'll try to add more as i find them. Pretty much nail Musharraf to the crimes he's committed against his own nation in the name of patriotism. Punish him for treason!

Meray Butabik with ex-Rawalpindi core commander part 1

Meray Butabik with ex-Rawalpindi core commander part 2

I'm on Alltop!

2008-06-01T21:35:00.000-07:00

Check it out, I'm on Pakistan.alltop.com :)

Daylight savings and software patches

2008-06-01T06:12:00.000-07:00

Pakistan has (quiet hastly) jumped on the daylight savings bandwagon. We've done this twice in the past and failed each time, although this time round the rationale is quiet understandable ie saving of energy.
I'm on ubuntu ...and havent received *ANY* alert for upgrading the daylight savings patch. I wonder if one is available for Windoz? I'm not worried for my system ...since I'll just change the timezone to Bangladesh as its +6 GMT to keep all the other timezones in synch. But what about banks, airlines and other such businesses where local time and timezones is critical?