Otto Maddock | Real Estate Technology

A Good Morning Every Morning

2010-02-12T18:34:00.000-08:00

I wake up every day at around 5 am and spend the next two hours reading. Getting a jump on the market like this is the only sane option for an effective workday. All of my professional mentors operated the same way.

I used to intend for this blog to be a daily news source. It wasn't that I thought the world needed my contribution, just that the technical and design challenges interested me. Since then, I've discovered a handful of sources so reliable I put my own project on ice.

First and by far the most useful is the "Macro View" screen at Seeking Alpha. Although I am used to working amongst the driven, I find the output of financial bloggers so prodigious as to be personally disturbing to me. I fear for their health, but not as much as I fear for my own obsolescence, being something of a dinosaur and more tired every year.

(My exploration of the internet side of my professional life has led me to the conclusion that my professional life might be drawing to a close. I just realized that through writing this. Thanks for joining me.)

2010: Refinement of Strategy, Wu Wei

2010-02-04T11:11:00.000-08:00

News updates have stopped - I have learned that algorithm code-script works far better than these old fingers do. I still find myself using Twitter, however - @OttoMaddock - and interested in broadcasting my thoughts, for what they are worth.

A refinement of strategy, then. Within my mind lies a garden of sorts, an organic growth of datum and factoid, informed by pattern laws I only understand intuitively. Viewed from here, I am less interested in news and blogging, and perhaps more concerned with the creation of a conceptual garden.

The field of infographics remains a central and organizing interest for me. I see economics as a "Pattern Language" - like Alexander's Architecture or the lost Chinese discipline of Li. This is what I will be cultivating here in 2010.

I invite questions from the uninitiated and the curious.

AM Roundup December 15th, 2009

2009-12-15T05:55:00.000-08:00

This is truly a Slow Tuesday for business and financial news. Everyone is holding their breath for the release of key indicators later in the week. I would recommend using today to review and relax.

Best Read: Male Employment Hits Record Low

The Gist: "This means that, as of November, 19.4% of American men in their prime working years didn't have jobs. By this measure, the current job situation (for men, at least) is much, much worse than in any downturn since the BLS started measuring this stuff in 1948. Either that or there are just a lot more stay-at-home dads, grad students, and men who voluntarily spend their days playing golf..."

AM ROUNDUP

For an excellent "edu-tainment" read this morning, check out "10 Biggest White Collar Crimes in History"...

...monster conglomerate bank Societe General gives their clients Advice on Surviving the Coming Crash...

...valuable details in a Bloomberg update of an earlier story: Banks Take Losses on Short Sales...

...John Robb offers a typically excellent and crisp article on Adaptive Leadership...

...and for infographics: nothing today is going to top the absurd complexity of The US Military's Afghanistan Plan in One Huge Chart. Or skip the propaganda and just view the image itself by clicking it:

AM Roundup December 14th, 2009

2009-12-14T05:55:00.000-08:00

Best Read: How Goldman Sachs Slit AIG's Throat

The Gist: "Goldman originated or bought protection from AIG on about $33 billion of the $80 billion of U.S. mortgage assets that AIG insured during the housing boom. That is roughly twice as much as Société Générale and Merrill Lynch, the banks with the biggest exposure to AIG after Goldman, according an analysis of ratings-firm reports and an internal AIG document that details several financial firms' roles in the transactions.

In Goldman's biggest deal, it acted as a middleman between AIG and banks, taking on the risk of as much as $14 billion of mortgage-related investments. Then Goldman insured that risk with one trading partner—AIG, according to the Journal's analysis and people familiar with the trades.

The trades yielded Goldman less than $50 million in profits, which were mostly booked from 2004 to 2006, according to a person familiar with the matter. But they piled risks onto AIG's books, which later came to haunt the insurer and Goldman....

Additional calls for collateral from Goldman and other banks eventually led to AIG's September 2008 bailout and led the New York Federal Reserve two months later to fully cover $62 billion of insurance contracts Goldman and 15 other banks had with the financial products unit of AIG."

AM ROUNDUP

Before you get distracted this morning, clear your desk and your head and take 10 minutes to read this one. Calculated Risk offers an excellent, expert overview with "A Summary and a Look Ahead"...

...for a high-quality, high-speed macroeconomics lesson, check out The Atlantic's rundown on the question of "How Can the Shadow Banking System Be Fixed?"...

..Paul Volcker speaks up with an overall grim forecast for 2010 , overall "Looking Pretty Sluggish"...

...something we're all seeing at the local level, analyzed with numbers by Reuters: "Small Business Confidence Taking a Beating"...

...an important macro-economic fact to tuck away for later: "42% of Parents Have Paid a Child's Debt" which is hardly news to collection agents I know, but still good to have a number for...

...US Debt Watch: record deficits for the 14th straight month, say the wild conspiracy theorists at CNN Money...

...and Today's Infographic is a philosophical gem from Infomation is Beautiful -- a short, colorful visual essay on What Makes Good Information Design?

Sunday Jumpstart for December 13th, 2009

2009-12-12T05:55:00.000-08:00

For the weekend, I'll recommend a few books. Instead of bombarding you with links, I'll choose the 5 Best from this past week, but first...

INFOGRAPHICS | US UNEMPLOYMENT BY COUNTY

BOOK RECOMMENDATIONS

There was an excellent list posted this week on the new blog Realty Infusion: 5 Mind-Blowing Business Books, and I would agree with their recommendations. In addition, here's three of my own:

1. Finite and Infinite Games,by James P. Carse. For "mind-blowing" this title would be quite hard to beat. It's a very simple philosophical approach that gets explained completely in the first chapter. Most people I've given this book to have said it was life-changing, and I agree. It's also very relevant to business, balancing the depth of focus and lightness of spirit necessary to succeed in this life.

2. The Works: Anatomy of a City,by Kate Asher. This is like a grown-ups version of "How Things Work" that lays out, with pictures, the entire system of urban civilization. It is an amazing book. It is also a total guide to the business of infrastructure, from GE to UPS to DHS, all through the lens of New York City. If you're in business, you need to understand the ecosystem you're inside and this is the quickest, simplest way to do that.

3. The Velvet Monkey Wrench,by John Muir. This book has dated slightly, but it remains a remarkably odd and powerful vision of a Better Civilization. It had a huge effect on my young business mind, and the principles here probably guide me to this day. Pro Tip: buy an older used version, which does a better job reproducing the illustrations, which are a book unto themselves, amazingly intricate and symbolic cartoon work.

5 BEST LINKS | From Dec 7th - 11th

1. Edward Pinto in the WSJ: Saving More Homes for Less Money, a detailed and constructive critique of the housing stimulus plan.

2. From the Bigger Pockets blog, an important question: Is 2009 The Year Home Prices Stabilized?

3. Zero Hedge analyzes the Deutsche Bank analysis of 4 Scenarios for 2010. A great summary of our current global economic status.

4. Time Magazine offers an unusually good economic thinkpiece: 5 Things the US Can Learn From China.

5. The best headline of 2009, by any standard: Obama Sends SWAT Teams into Mortgage Servicing Offices.

AM Roundup December 11th, 2009

2009-12-11T04:44:00.000-08:00

Best Read: Foreclosure Activity Drops for the Fourth Consecutive Month

The Gist: "Millions of borrowers are still being evaluated for the Obama administration's foreclosure prevention effort. States are also trying to delay the foreclosure process, temporarily lowering foreclosure numbers.

But the foreclosure crisis is likely to get worse before it gets better.

"We don't really believe the underlying problems have been resolved," said Rick Sharga, senior vice president at the Irvine, Calif.-based foreclosure listing service. Many borrowers, he said, "simply aren't going to qualify" for help.

Foreclosure filings were still up 18 percent from a year ago, and a new wave is expected next year as unemployment remains high and borrowers fall out of loan modification programs."

AM ROUNDUP

Calculated Risk examines the heavy local costs of "Toxic Titles" and their effects on the neighborhood beyond mere property values...

...Zero Hedge delivered the fascinating investment tip of the day: Profiting From the Upcoming Chinese Financial Crisis, which is "must read" material...

...two from Agent Genius today, first up an article analyzing the recent Trulia and Zillow data that seems to show New Stability for the Real Estate Market...

...and next up, Mortgage Applications Are Up This Week -- Do You Know Why? which I enjoyed reading because I didn't know, at all...

...Forbes Magazine sounding a very ominous note with "The Coming Wave of Debt Defaults" which provides important numbers and perspecitve...

...Flowing Data gave me weeks worth of ideas in a single post: 7 Visualization Groups on Flickr to Find Inspiration, an article that delivers the goods...

...and the Infographic of the Day is definitely US Domestic Oil Production (and Comsumption) from Next Generation Oil & Gas.

AM Roundup December 10th, 2009

2009-12-10T04:44:00.000-08:00

Best Read: 4 Scenarios for 2010 from the good people at Zero Hedge.

The Gist: "This scenario is the most likely and suggests that we start to see gradual easing off the gas from the authorities but only as it’s proved that there is some momentum in the underlying economy. Under this scenario risk assets have a good year but returns are checked to some degree by rising bond yields and less stimulus being injected into markets. A satisfactory year for risk, especially equities, but a mildly negative one for fixed income. Credit investors will likely have to rely on spreads (and higher beta credit) to get positive total returns."

THE AM ROUNDUP

From the Bigger Pockets blog, check out 2009: The Year Home Prices Stabilized?...

...another good resource from Realty Infusion, this time about Amazing Real Estate Infographics...

...and their post today, an introduction to the Case-Shiller Index...

...Agent Genius comes through with The Fallacy of "Going Back to Basics" in Real Estate...

...for the high-level data fiends, also known as "working professionals," you'll want to read the Calculated Risk rundown answering your HAMP Questions...

...I was interested in the potential more than the product, but this is a great read from The Future of Real Estate Marketing about Coldwell Banker's "Dream Home" Visual Search feature...

...and your daily infographic -- something elegant from Simple Complexity, Government Expenses Worldwide by GDP...

...and you should also follow me on Twitter. I just got started and it's rather boring right now. Thanks.

AM Roundup December 9th, 2009

2009-12-09T04:44:00.000-08:00

Best Read: Edward Pinto, Saving More Homes with Less Money on Wall Street Journal.

The Gist: "The first shortfall is that the program doesn't provide a clear process to triage the over 7.5 million delinquent loans. The second is that it doesn't take into account that the primary reason borrowers default is "negative equity." When a house is worth less than what is owed on it, making monthly payments seems like a waste of money and many homeowners walk away."

AM ROUNDUP

Surprisingly boring list of the 10 featured Real Estate Technology startups for the 2010 Connect NYC conference...

...an interesting list of "5 Mind-Blowing Business Books" on new blog Realty Infusion...

...Agent Genius offers an important take on Privacy, Social Media and Real Estate Technology -- they've always got excellent material, worth subscribing to...

...Bank of America statistics: 2/3 of all loan modifications fail because of incomplete documentation...

...RE/Max agrees: 2010 is the Year of the Short Sale...

...and finally: Wall Street Journal offers the best summary article to date on the new US treasury Short Sale guidelines.

AM Roundup December 8th, 2009

2009-12-08T04:44:00.000-08:00

Best Read: 10 Real Estate Myths Debunked

"6. The Federal Reserve controls mortgage rates.

Wrong. Lawrence Yun explains: The Fed's activities influence mortgage rates but don't directly control them. What the Fed sets is a very short-term interest rate called the Federal Funds Rate. Mortgage rates are determined by global savings as well as credit spreads and inflationary pressures. Over the past two years, the Fed has raised the Fed Funds Rate to 5.5%, and then cut it deeply to around 2%. All the while, the 30-year mortgage rate has averaged in the 6 to 6.5% range. TIP: Today's rates don't look bad compared to the 10% we saw in the early '90s and 17% in the '80s."

The AM ROUNDUP

CNN "Best Cities to Find a Job" is a roadmap for my nephew's generation...

...some heavy reading from left field: The Limits of Urban Simulation was fascinating...

...The Cool Commentator offers "5 Secrets of Innovation" -- nothing new but nice and concise...

...Robert Greene offers four leadership rules from 50 Cent about interacting with your audience -- I was skeptical but this was a superb read...

...controversial college professor urges people to walk away from their mortgages...

...and finally, for those of you doing marketing research like myself: the top 51 Active Rain blogs by traffic, a handy list.

AM Roundup December 7th, 2009

2009-12-07T04:44:00.000-08:00

Best Headline of 2009: Obama Sends SWAT Teams into Mortgage Servicing Offices

The Gist: "Today, the White House threatened to punish mortgage lenders with fines if they don’t speed up giving troubled homeowners a permanent break on their monthly payments. With mortgage delinquencies on the rise, nearly 375,000 borrowers are eligible for permanent loan modifications by the end of December and the Obama Administration want to make sure the banks make good on granting these modifications rather than lolly gagging. Proof of reluctance to move past trial offer periods is that only 1,711 permanent mortgage modifications had been offered by September."

THE AM ROUNDUP

More context for that headline: BusinessWeek recently ran an article about several of Obama's young economic advisors with the provocative (and familiar-looking) title "Obama's Big Gov SWAT Team" which probably set the stage...

...interesting: the "unbranded" Starbucks experiment apparently flopped hard...

...infographics rule: here's How Americans Are Handling the Recession (thanks to @realtyinfusion for that one)...

...the always-fascinating Zero Hedge offers a look at Obama's Stealth Stimulus, about "zombie homes" and recession survival...

...and finally, take a look through the archive of Real Estate SEO Blogs by Jack LeBlond. I found this to be a wealth of well-written educational content and I'm grateful for what I learned there.

Until next time!!!

Best Used Bookshop Finds of 2009

2009-12-04T21:52:00.001-08:00

Chimpanzee Politics, by Franz de Waal

Outstanding. Although it took me some time to get into the book's slow rhythm and pacing, the insights were well worth it. This cost me $1 and gave me at least a decade's worth of information to think about.

The Art of Memetics, by Wes Unruh and Edward Wilson

On first glance, this struck me as an odd mix of marketing and chaos magick and I am rather glad I picked this up on a whim. It was far better than I expected. Grounds memetics in mythology which yields a unique style of insight. Personally, I found this to be a wealth of business and communication concepts.

Light Infantry Tactics, by Christopher Larsen

The illustrations were often bad enough to be "worse than nothing" but the writing is clear and the topic is fascinating. How do you operate a small team in a combat situation? I have read this over several times now and would recommend it to anyone.

A Field Guide to the Global Economy

Very dated but beautifully presented. This reminded me of the McLuhan / Fiore collaborations, which were very visually oriented. This is less collage based, aiming for a sleek textbook feel that makes it worthwhile to this day.

AM Roundup December 3rd, 2009

2009-12-03T04:44:00.000-08:00

Best Read: Grey is Every Theory, Green is the Tree of Life from the Redfin Blog.

The Gist: "What has been preventing any type of serious price recovery has been the seemingly bottomless pit of foreclosures. And the problem may be getting worse. Nationwide, foreclosure filings increased 5% in July – September as compared to April – June… Bank re-possessions increased 21% in the third quarter as compared to the second.

But we don’t think inventory will drop much over the next three to six months and it will probably increase starting next year. As usual, we’re worried about the number of foreclosed homes banks will try to sell this winter and next spring. 14% of all home loans had at least one payment past due in the third quarter; 3.4% are 120 days past due as of October, up from 3.2% the month before. Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Banks, does not expect foreclosures to peak until mid-2010."

AM ROUNDUP

First of all, bookmark this now: Mashable just published a Social Media Guide for Small Business that's million-dollar quality material. Print it out and hire someone to read it...

...Calculated Risk offers essential facts to understand the housing numbers: "House Prices, Real Prices, Price to Rent"...

...an interesting but odd read from The Atlantic: Do Banks Act in Their Own Self-Interest?...

...today's Real Estate market intelligence via the Wall Street Journal: "Loan Modifications Under Pressure," numbers and analysis...

...today's obligatory and ubiquitous viral headline is also worth reading: Judge Erases $525,000 Mortgage...

...and today's infographic is definitely this Visual Economics production: The Cost of Home Ownership. This is something I'd like to put on my office wall.