Out Fox The $treet

Analysts Downgrading Every Day!

2012-02-09T17:18:00.001-06:00

While the market appears overbought and everybody claims to be bullish, several indicators of action show a different story. The sentiment versus action debate in investors is beginning to match that of the consumer confidence reports. Bespoke had an interesting graph yesterday showing that analysts have not had a single day of net upgrades this year. During the rally upwards in 2012, every

Cloudy Earnings In The Cloud Software Sector

2012-02-09T07:30:00.000-06:00

Over the last couple of weeks, several cloud software stocks have issued guidance that disappointed the markets. In most cases, the original estimates weren't that aggressive for stocks with relatively high valuations. Not being able to make estimates was beyond disappointing.Back a few months ago, this article analyzed the sector after SuccessFactors (SFSF) agreed to be bought out by SAP for a

Jive Software Earnings (Losses)

2012-02-08T16:53:00.001-06:00

Jive Software (JIVE) continues to be one of the most interesting recent IPOs. Jive provides social business software and is the first publicly traded pure play. After the close yesterday, the company reported it's first quarterly report as a public company. Both revenue and earnings beat estimates. The company guided to numbers for Q1'12 and FY'12 that beat estimates. All great numbers compared

Investment Report - February 2012: Opportunistic Levered

2012-02-08T13:24:00.002-06:00

After a bad 2011, this year got off to a fantastic start with the model seeing a 25% gain in January easily outperforming the 4.4% gain for the S&P500. The model spent most of the month accumulating cheap stocks in order to take advantage of the market rallying against the proverbial 'wall of worry'. January was an interesting month with stocks rising even in the face of what appeared like

Hartford Financial Reports 17% Increase in Book Value

2012-02-07T17:12:00.000-06:00

Following on the report from Lincoln Financial (LNC), Hartford Financial (HIG) reported solid earnings of $.69 that beat estimates by $.07. More importantly though Hartford reported the book value jumped to $47.25, up 17% on the year. Per Briefing.com: 4:18PM Hartford Financial beats by $0.07 (HIG) 19.12 -0.21 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.69 per share, $0.07 better than the Capital IQ

Lincoln Financial Book Value Soars 20% in 2011

2012-02-07T16:12:00.002-06:00

Lincoln Financial (LNC) reported after the close that earnings for Q4'11 were $1 which helped increase the book value 20% for the year. Now try explaining to a non investor why the stock price for Lincoln declined for the year. The company is worth more by every measure, but the stock is worth a lot less. Another mind boggler is that the short term earnings picture remains reasonable, even

Revisiting Stocks That Could Recalim July Highs

2012-02-06T17:10:00.001-06:00

Back in October I wrote an article about how stocks could reclaim highs from July. At the time, numerous stocks were down 50-60% from those July highs after the dramatic summer sell-off that didn't appear to be justified. Since that article, numerous stocks such as Toll Brothers (TOL) and F5 Networks (FFIV) have already recaptured the July highs and more. Much to my surprise, homebuilders lead

Is the Technology Sector Really Overextended?

2012-02-06T07:00:00.000-06:00

Just about every stock segment I caught on Friday and over the weekend talked about the tech sector being very extended. The talk is of massive gains that reach bubble levels. The Nasdaq Composite hit 11 year highs so clearly it must be time to sell. Or is it? When finally taking a closer look at the Technology SPDR Select ETF (XLK), I'm actually dumfounded by all the pessimism. Sure the XLF has

Dumping Gilead Sciences On Buyback Elimination

2012-02-03T14:39:00.001-06:00

Gilead Sciences (GILD) had been about a 5% weighting in our Net Payout Yields model. The company had been on a huge buyback plan making the stock very attractive for this model that focuses on stocks with high yields from the combination of net stock buybacks and dividends. Unfortunately with the recent Pharmasset (VRUS) buyout announcement, Gilead has strayed from the plan of rewarding

Chart of the Day: Nonfarm Payrolls Jump

2012-02-03T09:52:00.000-06:00

A chart speaks a thousand words so the below chart of the monthly nonfarm payrolls over the last four years speak to the recent strength in the report. We'll let the experts spin all the minute details of the report, but this charts shows how the US economy is on the verge of a major breakout. Employees flush with cash just can't hold back any longer. The biggest concern is that this provides

Is SodaStream About To Explode Higher?

2012-02-01T23:29:00.002-06:00

Based on the chart and earnings of associated stock Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR), it sure appears that SodaStream (SODA) is about to explode higher. SodaStream's stock was crushed mid-year dropping from a high around $80 to a low around $30. Why? All due to very conservative guidance from a management team that continues to UPOD almost similar to the Apple (AAPL) history. SodaStream has beaten

Big Earnings Beat By Radware

2012-02-01T11:56:00.003-06:00

Before the open, leading virtualization provider Radware (RDWR) reported an earnings beat of roughly 15% reporting $.42 versus estimates of $.37. Revenue was also slightly above estimates. Oddly though the stock originally jumped over 5%, but it has been trailing off since the open even with the market up over 1%. The company also guided Q1 above estimates with guidance of $.35 compared to $.33

Fracking IPOs This Week

2012-01-31T13:54:00.001-06:00

A couple of interesting fracking IPOs this week. First, US Silica (SLCA) mines the sand for the fracking market. Second, Platinum Energy Solutions (FRAC) is a contract fracking service provider. Both companies have interesting futures, but they are coming public when oil service companies are beaten down due to low natural gas prices. This video from theSteet.com shows just how bearish the

Sears Holdings: Impossible To Cover

2012-01-30T13:39:00.000-06:00

Sears Holdings (SHLD) has come under extreme pressure lately after a Q4 warning and fears of credit tightening around suppliers. The stock recently bounced back to above the gap down from the December warning, but it is has now closed down for five consecutive days.What stopped the free fall to below $30 from a high above $80 in October was news that Chairman Eddie Lampert accepted management

Creative Uses Of Apple's Cash Hoard

2012-01-30T10:11:00.001-06:00

As reported last week, Apple (AAPL) now has a cash hoard of over $97B while generating $17.5B in cash flow from operations in Q4 alone. Yes, that is correct. Apple has more cash than most countries have in GDP. Most investors want Apple to return the cash via a dividend or major stock buyback. Neither are that appealing to me as a typical investor buys Apple for growth. A 5% dividend yield could

A Tale Of 2 Networking Equipment Earnings

2012-01-29T18:37:00.000-06:00

After the close on Thursday, networking equipment stocks Juniper Networks (JNPR) and Riverbed Technology (RVBD) reported earnings that sent both stocks lower on Friday. One company missed estimates and focused on issues with carrier spending and the European debt crisis. The other exceeded estimates and talked about a product transition in Q1 leading to a major new product cycle.So which stock

Copper Inventories Plunging

2012-01-26T07:30:00.000-06:00

Don't look now, but copper inventories continue to plunge. Recently breaking below 350K tons at the LME Copper Warehouse according to kitco.com. According to the charts below, inventory levels have hit a 2 year low recently. Hard to tell whether China is stockpiling, demand is increasing, or supplies are struggling. Our focus continues to be that the copper market has yet to see the demand

Disappointing Margins Crush Fusion-io: Storage Wars Heat Up

2012-01-25T16:36:00.000-06:00

Though Fusion-io (FIO) reported earnings that slightly beat estimates and revenue that handily beat estimates, the stock sold off 13% after hours. With 170% year-over-year revenue growth, the report made clear that the move to flash memory storage was gaining steam. Fusion-io provided revenue guidance for the next quarter that easily surpassed the Capital IQ analyst consensus, but that might

How Net Payout Yields Predicted Financial Stocks' Earning Results

2012-01-24T19:37:00.001-06:00

Going into this earnings release, investors appeared a lot more bullish on Capital One Financial (COF) than Goldman Sachs (GS). Capital One's stock was trading at 6 month highs and Goldman was near the lows. All the media could focus on was how bad the investment banking and brokerage business was for Goldman Sachs. Management, though, was telling a different story to anybody paying attention.

Stat of the Day II: Europe PMI Shows Surprising Jump

2012-01-24T14:12:00.000-06:00

The euro-wide composite index of purchasing managers in both services and manufacturing industries improved in January. What? Thought Europe was in a deep recession. Now we're already hearing talk of the downturn bottoming out. The composite index rose to 50.4, a five month high, from 48.3 in December according to Markit Economics. Naturally this wasn't an overly robust report and the gain was

Stat of the Day: Richmond Fed New Orders Surge

2012-01-24T10:29:00.000-06:00

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing survey saw a surprise jump in just about every category for January. The overall index jumped to 12 from 3 and more than doubled estimates of 6. More importantly though was the new orders jumping to 14 from 7. This suggests continued strength heading into February. The Richmond Fed which stretches from Maryland to South Carolina is generally not viewed as a key

401K Trends to Watch in 2012

2012-01-23T08:30:00.000-06:00

Any followers of this blog know that I typically focus on individual stock research. My goal for 2012 is to spend some more time focusing more on trends in investments and especially more time on retirement options. Interesting article yesterday from the Associated Press regarding trends in 401K plans. Mostly positive trends, but generally basic themes that are incredible that they weren't

Investment Report - Opportunistic Levered: January 2012

2012-01-21T09:00:00.000-06:00

After a strong 2009 and 2010, 2011 was a year to forget for this portfolio. The market hit highs around the end of April and this model was soaring to new heights at the time. Many of the holdings had valuations nowhere near the 2007/08 peaks or even close to what would normally be considered rich. Regardless, leverage was reduced since some gains were significant. Then, unfortunately most of the

Kraft Foods Is Worth How Much?

2012-01-19T14:33:00.003-06:00

Yesterday, Kraft Foods (KFT) provided an update on fiscal 2011 results. Operating EPS was guided to $2.28 or slightly above analysts estimates. Naturally the company got a lot of media attention.What didn't get a lot of attention is that Kraft now trades at a rich multiple for a company with just 6.5% organic revenue growth. The forward PE (2012) is now over 15. A very rich price when the S&P500

Met Coal Conundrum

2012-01-18T13:39:00.000-06:00

Friday was a wild day in the metallurgical (MET) coal sector as Patriot Coal (PCX), Walter Energy (WLT), and Norfolk Southern (NSC) all made noteworthy announcements. With Patriot Coal and fellow met coal producer Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) both sinking more than 10%, one would assume that all of the announcements were negative.Summary of the announcements from Friday: Before the market