OzSportsDude

THE MYTH IS SOLIDIFIED

2012-05-24T20:12:00.002-07:00

This is the second in a multi-part series on the building of the current Hawthorn team. To see part one go to

http://www.ozsportsdude.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/building-of-flawed-flag-favourite.html

As the 2002 season dawned there was a lot of optimism from Hawthorn fans, still bitter over the loss of Croad the fan base still reasoned, with some justification, that he was just one player from the team that fell agonisingly short of a Grand Final and anyway 'this Hodge kid was meant to be a superstar wasn't he?'. The season began inauspiciously with a loss to Melbourne who were in the middle of their period of swinging from year to year between being a Top 4 then Bottom 4 side, but Round 2 was the real marker of where we are at versus Premiers Brisbane and the reality check was delivered with brutal efficiency, a 102 point flogging at the Gabba. Whist some Hawthorn fans saw this as the result of the Croad Trade the more astute observers saw this as confirmation that the Hawks had done the right thing, this game more than any other showed just how far Hawthorn was from a Premiership, Brisbane showed the footy world the standard and it was clear the Hawks were clearly more than a single player away from meeting it. Sitting in the directors box at the Gabba the members of the football department who had made the tough call to trade Croad would have seen this game as vindication.

Following this reality check the Hawks went on to have the very definition of a middling season, finishing 11-11. But the raw win totals didn't tell the true story of what the season represented. Other than a late season surprise victory against Collingwood the Hawks were barely competitive against the good teams and routinely got flogged by the real elite sides in the Competition. They were beaten by 10 goals in the return match with Brisbane, 10 goals again by Adelaide a 40 point drubbing from Port Adelaide and a pair of 10 goal floggings when we travelled out West, even though both Fremantle and West Coast were both very ordinary teams that year. If you can't even be competitive with the elite and you struggle on the road then your list needs more than cosmetic changes it is time for a complete overhaul but the Hawks took a confusing strategy into the draft room.

The 2002 draft class came with nowhere near the hype of the 2001 version but there would still be stars hidden in this group and it was imperative for the Hawks that they managed to find as many of them as possible. Hawthorn were also in a good draft position due to Daniel Chick making it clear he wanted to go home to West Coast and the resulting trade netting us pick 8 from West Coast. However the gaining of a valuable pick was negated by the Hawks trading away their 1st and 2nd Rd picks (6 & 22) to get mature aged Ruckman Peter Everett from St Kilda. This is still a baffling decision, after 12 months earlier trading a younger and frankly better player to move up in the draft to get Luke Hodge and supposedly signalling a commitment to youth, to then trade 2 valuable picks for a player who was unlikely to be at the club when Hodge and the other picks from the previous year were in their prime was, and is, incredibly confusing. Then to add to the confusing strategy they traded their other 2nd rounder for the forgettable Kingsley Hunter from the Western Bulldogs, a player who gave us a total of 2 games and 1 goal.

So after these Trades the Hawks, a team with many holes went into an important draft with 3 picks and only 1 of these in the Top 50. In the end the 2002 draft turned out to be a complete disaster. With Pick 8 Hawthorn chose Luke Brennan who ended up playing just 19 games in 4 seasons at the club, with Pick 51 they took Tim Boyle who did have one good year in an injury plagued career kicking a bunch of goals as a 3rd tall forward in 2007 and was playing well in the Premiership year until being injured in Round 13. It is tough to be too critical on Boyle because of the injuries and really getting even one good season out of a pick in the 50's can be seen as a bonus. The final player in this forgettable draft class was Lochlan Veale who did nothing for Hawthorn but did come to play a prominent part in the Hawks draft strategy 12 months down the road. Some of the players that the Hawks missed on that were available to them in that draft and could be helping them today. Daniel Merritt would have filled our now 3 year search for a tall defender quite nicely as would Tom Lonergan, both available after pick 22, the second pick we gave up in the Everett deal. As for the other pick from the Everett deal, pick 6 well the player taken there was Steve Salopek but one pick later went Andrew Mackie a player that the Hawks would love to have, this also is the first in a long line of misery related to pick 6 and Hawthorn. What saved this offseason for the Hawks however was sterling work in the Rookie Draft, picking up future premiership stars Michael Osbourne and Brad Sewell this was the start of a great period for the Hawks in this part of the draft process that they can be genuinely proud of.

2002 will always be a perplexing moment in Hawthorn history for me, after having the courage to trade Trent Croad 12 months earlier and after seeing just how far from the elite they remained it seemed obvious that the Hawks would commit to youth, and the narrative in the media has always been that the Hawks bravely committed to a youth strategy after that 2001 season whilst Richmond foolishly topped up on mature aged players. This narrative has helped destroy the reputation of Danny Frawley as an AFL coach and cement the reputations of the Hawks as geniuses but as usual in the AFL media the desire for a simple narrative is never tripped up by something as meaningless as facts.

The 2003 season was just more of the same for Hawthorn, which is to be expected when all you do is fiddle around the edges of your list. The addition of Everett did help improve their work at the clearances but they still found themselves outside the 8, although improvements against the top sides were noticeable the question remained were the older recruits just papering over the cracks to give short term respectability rather than being a part of a long term strategy to build a contender, again after the Hodge trade this continued to make little to no sense whatsoever. The fact they won their last 4 games of the season to finish on a high was also troubling as it signalled that maybe the Hawks would convince themselves they were on the brink of elite status and move further away from the youth strategy that had been signalled in the 2001 draft and then maddeningly put on hold in 2002.

2003 also saw some trades for mature aged players from the Hawks. Lochlan Veale was involved in a 3 team trade with the Western Bulldogs that netted the Hawks Danny Jacobs and in a complicated trade saw Jade Rawlings move to the Bulldogs in the pre-season draft, the Hawks also jettisoned Daniel Harford a stalwart of our midfield to Carlton along with a 2 no-name players in Brett Johnson & David Loats for Simon Beaumont (yet another win-now player) & pick 51. We also picked up the anonymous David A Clarke from Geelong in that same deal as Loats was moved on by Carlton. The big trade news however was the return of Trent Croad, back from a disappointing spell in Perth costing us our first round pick (#10). Croad was still young and a realistic chance to be a part of the Luke Hodge/Sam Mitchell led era that was clearly coming but the Beaumont/Jacobs trades again created a confusing picture, were we trying to prepare a juggernaut to be ready as Hodge and Mitchell hit their prime or did the Hawks really think they were a trade away from a Premiership.

As draft day arrived once again the Hawks had the equal lowest number of picks of any team in the competition with 3. They then proceeded to turn those 3 picks into players who really contributed nothing to Hawthorns success over the next 3-4 years as they survived at the club flicking between the VFL side and the occasional game at the top level. Danny Jacobs played well but was not around on Grand Final day 2008 and was never a part of the Hodge/Mitchell era. However due to the moving on of Glen Bowyer, Daniel Harford & Jade Rawlings the AFL media conveniently lost focus on our pick up of Danny Jacobs and our lack of draft picks and again fed the narrative of the brave commitment to youth at Hawthorn.

The 2004 season was when the reality check that had been delivered back in Rd 2 2002 was finally driven home with such force that Hawthorn finally faced up to the fact that this list was just not going to challenge for a flag. 10 - 15 goal floggings were handed out by Port Adelaide (twice), Adelaide, Brisbane, Geelong (twice), Essendon, St Kilda (clearly missing Everett), Collingwood and North Melbourne. This time there was no 4 game win streak to end the season and paper over the cracks. Peter Schwab’s pre-season boast that we were going to win the flag sealed his demise and it finally appeared that the Hawks would truly commit to the process of rebuilding that it appeared they had begun in 2001 before abandoning it for the next 2 off-seasons.

Alistair Clarkson arrived on the scene promising to commit Hawthorn to a physical brand of football and put the whole playing list on notice that everyone was starting from scratch in his eyes, that there would be no favourites and he was right to do so, though the harsh way he treated Shane Crawford in the beginning seemed to be more like a symbolic attempt to break with the past culture at the club and was seen as too harsh by many it did lay down a marker to the rest of the list that a new regime was in town. He had say in the Port Adelaide coaching box as an assistant for the last 3 years and so had witnessed the series of 10 goal beltings that the Power had meted out to the Hawks, he was in a better position than most to assess the gap between the elite and the Hawks and he understood that a complete re-build was required.

The pre-draft trades at last made sense, rather than trading picks for players Hawthorn finally traded their best assets for picks, understanding at last that it was going to be the peak of Luke Hodges career that coincided with a sustained period of excellence not Shane Crawford’s and that it was important that we entered that period with players hitting their prime not retiring. Nathan Thompson was the first big-name casualty of this approach being sent to North Melbourne for 2 highly valuable picks (10 and 26) The Hawks then used picks 10 and 37 to move up with Collingwood to pick 7, picking up YOUNG PLAYER Bo Nixon in the process, Nixon didn't work out but at least the strategy made sense and that strategy was at last, youth, youth, youth and more youth.

Now finally the Hawks would follow up on their 2001 draft class with another group that could lay claim to matching it, after 2 wasted off-seasons that went away from the plan Hawthorn entered the draft with real ammunition rather than the pathetic 3 picks of the last 2 seasons. This is what the Hawks went into the draft holding.

Pick 2
Pick 5
Pick 7
Pick 21
Pick 26
Pick 53

Whereas in 2002 they had gone into the draft with 1 pick in the top 50 this year it was 5 in the top 30 and 3 in the top 10. That is how you dominate not only draft weekend but also the decade to come, if you commit to doing this for multiple seasons. Despite the disgraceful performance in 02/03 this draft if utilised well combined with the epic haul from 2001 could build the foundation of a real contender.

And thankfully it did, this is what the Hawks did with those picks and what those players have provided.

PICK 2
Jarred Roughead
142 Games - 262 Goals - Premiership star - Rising Star award nominee.

PICK 5
Lance Franklin
149 Games - 470 Goals - Premiership Star - All Australian - Coleman Medallist - Rising Star Award nominee - Best & Fairest Winner - Acknowledged as most exciting and possibly best player in the competition and is a genuine match-winner.

PICK 7
Jordan Lewis
154 Games - 74 Goals - Premiership Star - Rising Star Award nominee - Vice Captain of the Club.

PICK 21
Thomas Murphy
89 Games - Solid Defender, Role Player who is seen as a leader in the club.

PICK 26
Matthew Little
1 Game - First miss out of this group, nobody bats 1.000 on draft day.

PICK 53
Simon Taylor
85 Games - 17 Goals - Solid Ruck Option, never a superstar but was a solid contributor in the Hawks Premiership year though he was not a member of the Grand Final side being replaced by Brett Renouf and then injuries in the ensuing season served to end his career.

Just an amazing haul, couple that together with the 2001 draft class that included Premiership players Hodge, Ladson, Mitchell and Campbell Brown and the 2 premiership players from the 2002 Rookie Draft, Brad Sewell and Michael Osbourne then you can see that in the 4 drafts from 2001 - 2004 the Hawthorn Football Club managed to put together a third of a Premiership team and a quarter of a list in the premiership year.

Just think how much better things could be if they had not wasted 2002 and 2003 trying to chase the fool’s gold of mature aged recruits.

So as the 2005 season dawned the Hawks had a hardnosed new coach and even though they didn't know it yet, the nucleus of a contender. Whether they would be a perennial contender or the dominant team of an era would depend on what they did in the next 2 to 3 drafts, had they learned the lessons of the mistakes of 2003 or had the fact that the media were giving them a pass on them mistakes lead to them being repeated.

We will examine this is part 3.

COMING NEXT: PART 3 : The run up to a Premiership season.

The Building of a Flawed Flag Favourite

2012-05-16T23:34:00.001-07:00

PART ONE: HOW THE MYTH WAS BORN

2012 was looking like it would be a lot of fun for Hawthorn fans, as the season approached you were able to open a newspaper or watch one of the now ubiquitous football panel shows without being made aware that the Hawks were one of the favourites for this year’s premiership. With the main players from the 2 Hawks superdrafts of 2001 and 2004 now well and truly in their primes and a bunch of the younger players now approaching the 25-50 game mark things were looking great for the Brown & Gold and the footy world were falling over themselves to crown them as champs before a ball was bounced. However, as any Hawks fan who has been paying attention knew, outside of 2001 & 2005 a host of draft missteps that have haunted this team since the 2008 premiership would continue to cause pain for us in 2012.

As mentioned, 2001 was where the myth of the Hawthorn list management genius was born. The Hawks had suffered through the doldrums of the post Dunstall years, suffered the indignity of seeing Lockett break the 1300 goal landmark whilst our hero was retired on 1254 goals after missing time in his late career with knee injuries as well as missing games in his peak with a fractured skull. This meant that even the small pleasure of seeing a Hawthorn Champion as the Goals record holder was taken from us. From 1998 to the end of the 2000 season this was all we had to think about as the product the Hawks put on the field was underwhelming despite a plucky elimination finals win in 1999 and the bitterness of Melbourne Hawks battle still was fresh in the minds of all fans. However then came the magical 8-0 start to the 2001 season. After a classic opening game win over Collingwood, this plucky young Hawks team led my Nathan Thompson up forward and with Jade Rawlings & Jonathan Hay forming an amazing combination down back rolled through the next 7 weeks, a major scare against North Melbourne survived when Hay made one of the all-time great tackles seconds before the final siren to stop a certain goal and secure the win.

Suddenly, for the first time in years the Hawks were back page news again. Trent Croad got the full double page spread treatment in the immortal "The Business of Being Trent Croad" article in the Herald Sun. The major highlight of the article was a story of when Dermie (who we were told had become a mentor to Croad) had seen Croad smiling and laughing with Matty Lloyd while the Hawks were getting belted by the dominant Essendon team of the late nineties. Dermie grabbed Croad after the game and told him that next time Lloyd wanted to have a chat on the field that Croad was to 'turn around, spit in his face and say 'don’t talk to me or I’ll break your jaw" '. This article, coupled with the fact that our hated historic rival Essendon were dominant during that whole period combined with the giddy unexpected joy of the start to the season meant the Round 9 clash with the Bombers received an epic build up. When the Bombers refused to move the match to the MCG from Colonial Stadium, meaning that 30-40,000 Hawks fans, (including myself) had to watch the game on TV only added fuel to the fire of the pre-match build-up. In the end though it was a colossal disappointment. In a 100 point flogging of West Coast the week earlier Hay had injured his ankle in the last minutes and a sense of foreboding fell over any Hawks fans who were paying attention. Matty Lloyd was at his velvet sledgehammer cheating best in 2001 and Hay was our only hope to stop him. Within minutes of the start of the game Lloyd had milked 2 cheap Free Kicks, taken a couple of huge marks and all but put the game out of reach. Hawthorn left the field that night humiliated and all the hopes that had been raised in those first 8 weeks were replaced by real doubts about what this team could accomplish. When we went winless for the following 3 weeks those doubts only deepened.

Eventually the team did shake off the psychological scars of that night but the confidence that had propelled the team through those improbable first 8 weeks was gone, never to return. Rounds 16 & 17 were the only back to back wins that Hawthorn managed from the remainder of the regular season and when the Hawks lost their last 4 games heading into the finals including a humiliating loss in Round 22 versus a 4 win St Kilda team coming just 5 weeks after losing to the 2 win Fremantle Dockers there was very little faith amongst Hawthorn Fans when looking ahead to the upcoming Finals campaign.

Then the incredible happened, after belting Sydney in the first elimination final the Hawks went across to Adelaide to face the all-conquering Port Adelaide team. At this stage Port Adelaide hadn't gained their September chokers tag as yet. To pessimistic Hawks fans heading into that game they were just the team that had belted us 7 days after the Essendon debacle and were ready to repeat the dose. Instead in one of the all-time great Hawthorn performances a team that talent wise did not come close to matching up with that great Port Adelaide team went into enemy territory and shocked the AFL world coming home with a gutsy 3 point win.

All of a sudden the team that had lost its last 4 games of the season, that had lost to two teams with a combined 6 wins just a few weeks earlier was suddenly preparing for a rematch with Essendon and a place in the Grand Final. This time there was no flogging, Hay held Lloyd magnificently and when down by less than a kick with moments left in the game Trent Croad let fly with an amazing torpedo from inside the square the entire Hawthorn Army was planning their trip to Melbourne for the Grand Final parade 6 days later. Unfortunately as we all now know the ball drifted late in its flight, struck the post and Essendon went coast to coast to kick the sealer and go the Grand Final to face a Brisbane team that had just demolished Richmond.

What does all this have to do with 2012 you may ask, well it’s the way the Hawthorn brains trust responded to this joyous, surprising, frustrating and ultimately confusing season that set us on a path to the sustained relevancy of this current Hawthorn team and also ensured that the Football Department at Hawthorn would have its many draft mistakes papered over by a pliant football media.

The 2001 draft class had been talked about as an amazing talent pool all year, unfortunately for the Hawks there surprising season meant they would be picking in the teens when the future superstars would all be long gone. Trent Croad who had took us to the brink of an unlikely Grand Final was a fan favourite, a key position player (always tough to find) and phenomenal talent. He was also our best trading chip. When rumours started to circulate that the Hawks were considering trading the hero of the preliminary final hero, there were literal protests at Glenferrie Oval, talkback was lit up by enraged Hawthorn Fans and the general consensus was 'we were a drifting ball away from a Grand Final, let’s go win it next year' or 'Croad is top 10 player in the competition (he wasn't, not even close, but his trade value was never higher) so we should not trade him'. In an amazing display of leadership the Hawks football department ignored all the noise emanating from the fans and the media, knowing full well that if they were wrong it was the end of their careers in football. However, they stuck to their guns and made the trade. Trent Croad and the up and coming tall defender Luke McPharlin for the Overall Number One pick along with picks 20 and 36. The Hawks turned those 3 picks into Luke Hodge (1) Daniel Elstone (20) and Sam Mitchell (36) along with their own picks which went on Rick Ladson (16) Campbell Brown (32) and Simon Cox (48).

This was an amazing haul. Yes the Hawks could have picked Chris Judd who is now the consensus top player in the competition and a Brownlow Medallist but there is not a Hawthorn Fan who would trade Hodge for Judd straight up today, Hodgey is beloved by Hawks fans and as a Premiership Player, Norm Smith Medallist and current club captain who leads by example there is little doubt why the love is there.

Daniel Elstone is the one miss on that list, he never played a senior game for the club, Simon Cox played 2 seasons as a senior player draftee and finished 2nd in our Best and Fairest in his 1st year after being picked in the 3rd round.

The remainder remains one of the great draft day hauls in AFL history. Ladson 150 game premiership player still going strong, Campbell Brown the cult figure tough nut defender, premiership player now sadly moved on to the money on the Gold Coast and finally Hodge and Mitchell, both have Captained the club, Mitchell a premiership captain, Hodge the heart and soul of the place for a decade, both amazing leaders and both integral to our 2012 season. The Hawks had committed to youth and were prepared for the short term pain, in stark contrast to Richmond who topped up on mature aged players and consigned themselves to a decade of irrelevancy as a result. More than consigning themselves to irrelevancy the failures at Tigerland helped deepen the belief in the genius of the Hawthorn brains trust, every Richmond loss only served to reinforce in the minds of the lazy football media, locked into their narrative that Hawthorn had been brave (they had) and picked wisely (they had) and were to be given a free pass on any mistakes that might follow (they shouldn't).

So the Hawks entered the early part of the millennium with a fan base who would slowly forgive the Croad Trade and amazingly be prepared to show patience as they watched this young team grow together. There would be more pain to come in the next few years but it was all part of the plan and it all lead to a great day in September 2008. However, as we will see in the following columns there were serious missteps along the way that may mean that 2008 will remain an isolated island of joy in an ocean of missed opportunities.

END OF PART ONE.

COMING UP - PART 2 - The Purge of the heroes of 2001 continues and Buddy and Roughie arrive on the scene.

Gallops Parity Myth

2011-03-24T19:08:00.001-07:00

The Gallop dream has been realised, after a 2nd Rd of the NRL season filled with dramatic form reversals leading to a nightmare for tipsters and gamblers alike, NRL parity is a reality. By Monday night it was clear that 2010 was not an aberration, that this is the new NRL, this is Gallops NRL. Parity is king now, but it is a parity born of mediocrity.

With approx 100 former NRL players now plying their trade in the UK Super League, European Rugby, Super Rugby and even the AFL, the competition is unquestionably watered down. The big names are well known and obvious, Sonny Bill, Falou and Hunt all attracted huge headlines when they left the completion for more money and even though others such as Gasnier, Sailor and Tuqiri have returned, these are merely the tip of the iceberg. The bigger issue for the NRL is the number of so called 2nd tier players leaving in their prime.

The Roosters are a case in point. When it was clear by 2006 that the team that went to 3 Grand Finals needed to be re-built the Roosters tried to develop what they hoped would become one of the dominant Centre Pairings in the NRL. Iosea Soliola and Setemata Sa both came into First Grade a bit before they had truly earned it and had some rough performances that certainly hurt their team, but as far as the Roosters were concerned any short term pain, in a season where they were never going to contend anyway, was worth it for the long term pay-off when these two players matured into the players the hierarchy at the club felt they could become. Sa in particular was seen as a star of the future, ironically considering what was to happen, the player he was most often compared to as a youngster was Sonny Bill Williams and with his size and speed he had moments that did conjure up images of Sonny Bill during his time at the Roosters. By 2009, he was starting to display more consistent performances, and with Soliola by this time an established Kiwi test star the future for the Roosters at Outside Back looked bright, but then came contract time. The Roosters were now in a bind, Soliola and Sa had shown plenty of promise, but were not yet the finished article so the club could not justify offering them mega-deals, plus with Pearce and Anasta to lock up to long term deals and a restrictive cap, even a rich club like the Roosters was prevented from being able to lock up their services (not to mention the money wasted on the Masons and O’Meley’s of the world).

Now, if these players had gone to other clubs within the NRL, then Gallops claim that he has bought parity to the sport would have some merit, if the cap had caused these players who had been the beneficiaries of a massive investment of time and effort, as well as money, to leave the Roosters for the Knights or the Bulldogs, then yeah it would have sucked for the Roosters to lose them, and many of the arguments that are now made against the Cap, such as offering concessions for players developed at the club etc, would still be made, but at least Gallop could claim that his management had led to parity and spread the talent around the league. However, they did not go to the Knights or the Bulldogs, these players, who were not even well known stars, ended up in the UK Super League. Sa, Soliola and the dozens of others like them, along with the Buderus’s and Hodgson’s of the world show us that the so called parity of Gallop is really mediocrity, that his system does not spread the talent around, it pushes it away.

Now Gallop would argue, and in fact often does, that there are always other stars coming through and the departure of stars does not hurt the league. He would look at the above story of the Roosters and point out that they just signed Kenny-Dowall to a 1.4 million dollar deal to play in the Centres, but this is where the problem lies. Remember when I said that if Sa or Soliola move to the Knights is sucks for the Roosters but at least they are in the NRL, this is what I was thinking of. If the Cap was not so ridiculously low, either the Knights would have Sa and the Roosters would still have Kenny-Dowall, or maybe the Roosters kept Sa and Kenny-Dowall ended up at the Knights (but hopefully he would have been outside Sa on the Wing for the Roosters) the point is that NRL fans would still have been able to enjoy the talents of both players facing each other, rather than the current system where the overall talent pool of the league is being constantly diluted and blockbuster position duels are extremely rare.

The Salary Cap works in the NFL and AFL because these are sports with very specific skill sets that really don’t translate to other codes. The Cap works in the NBA because even though it restricts LeBron James salary, he can still earn more in the US than he can in Europe and even the 7th guy in a NBA rotation has a bigger contract than all but the top dozen or so European players so there is no risk of losing their players. Football (soccer) does not have a cap for the same reason that the cap is a bad idea in the NRL, if the English Premier League applied a cap, then my beloved Stoke City would finally have a chance to beat Chelsea and maybe even contend for a title, but it would not be by Stoke improving, it would be by Chelsea losing Drogba, Lampard, Terry and Cole to other leagues and the standard of the league would just dive and the level of entertainment would drop with it robbing fans of the product they now enjoy.

Well this is what is happening in the current NRL, the fans are being robbed every week. When Danny Buderus left we were told he was at the end of his career, but he is still going strong in the UK today, Pat Richards scored one of the great Grand Final Trys in 2005, was in the UK by 2007 and is still going strong now, Chris Flannery one of my favourite ever players, gone to the UK in his prime. The issue is that in the past we missed the tail end of stars careers to the UK, Sterling went over to get a taste of it when he was washed up, but Aussie fans saw all the best Sterling had to offer, now we don’t, now we miss the primes of some of our best players, this is why I cringe every time that Gallop brags about 9 premiers in 10 years or whatever it is, and when Rd 2 happens and the media says this is the great thing about Rugby League, that every team has a chance, I think of the 3 or 4 clubs that don’t have anything resembling an NRL quality halfback, and how they can still upset better teams because in Gallops NRL every team has a glaring weakness, the playing pool is too thin, there are barely 32 NRL standard Centres to go round, nowhere near 64 props (2 starters plus 2 bench for each team) and most depressingly as mentioned, there are nowhere near 16 true NRL Half-Backs.... please don’t even mention Five-Eighths.

Finally, there is the impact that these moves have on Rugby Leagues showpiece, State of Origin. Back at the start of this millennium NSW had its most successful continuous run of success at State of Origin level. Left unsaid during this era of success however, was that it coincided perfectly with Matt Rogers, Lote Tuqiri & Wendell Sailor (all Queenslanders) leaving to join Rugby Union. The mass exodus to Europe had not yet really kicked in so NSW had a massive advantage, 3 of Queensland’s best and most experienced Origin Representatives were playing another sport and a look at some of the no-names to play in the outside backs for QLD (Steve Bell anyone) during that time shows the damage this had on their prospects. For the last 4 years it has been Queensland’s turn to inflict crushing defeats upon NSW, and NSW have not been helped by the loss of former Origin stars Matt King, Brett Hodgson, Jason Ryles, Mark Gasnier and Danny Buderus, as well as others I can not now remember. Remember this is the showpiece of Australian Rugby League, after 25 years of Origin the amazing stat was revealed that after seventy off game just 2 points separated the sides, but since then the glimmering jewel of the Rugby League Crown has been tarnished by the loss of stars overseas. Gallops NRL parity obsession, one that has led to a mediocre watered down NRL where parity is a debateable goal anyway (really, what’s wrong with a bunch of strong teams and weekly blockbusters when they meet each other) has had the unintended consequence of destroying parity in the place it was most needed, the games showpiece, State of Origin.

NRL Rd 1 Review/Rd 2 Preview

2011-03-17T21:49:00.000-07:00

To begin I want to offer in advance an apology for any grammatical errors in this weeks column, I was 4000 words into a completely different piece, about the kicking game, that I realised on Thursday I could not do justice to just now, so I had to get this out quickly. Still I hope there is some entertainment contained within, and that you continue to win money following my tips.

What a spectacular start to the new NRL season, no we are not just talking about Ozsportsdude following on with his stellar form from last years finals by going 7 from 8 v the spread in Round 1, impressive as that was, compared to the Roosters v Rabbitohs game on Friday night it was a mere blip on the NRL radar. When you also add in the Cowboys giving their fans plenty of reason for hope with the professional performance at Suncorp it was a stellar first night of the season. This meant that the Saturday games had a lot to live up to and they did not disappoint with the Storm and Dragons in particular announcing their intentions for the season with tough, grinding performances versus teams that have given them troubles in the last few years. The only real letdown of the weekend was Blowout Sunday. Penrith was the most disappointing performance of the weekend. The Sharks are a team that is not expected to contend this year, and they were playing against a Canberra team with realistic aspirations for a Top 4 finish, letting in 40+ points is terrible but it had more to do with a lack of quality than it did a lack of desire. However, the Panthers were a Top 4 team last year (though as a column I am currently working on will show 2009 was a false dawn for Penrith) and they were playing AT HOME, vs. a Newcastle team, that is on the rise but even they would admit, still early on their transition/re-building phase.

So the Round 1 awards are.

Game of the Week - Roosters v Rabbitohs

The NRL could not have asked for a better advertisement to kick off the 2011 NRL Premiership Season. Length of the field Try’s, quality big hits, a huge comeback by South’s, then amazingly the Roosters managing to beat the toughest opponent in the game, ‘momentum’, and swing the game back in their favour during a riveting last 7 minutes. The only ‘slight’ disappointment was the crowd, announced at 26 000+, probably about 5-7 thousand short of optimal, though the TV Ratings were superb.

Performance of the Week - Dragons v Titans

A boring pick I know and there are arguments for other teams, such as the Knights or Storm to get this award, but St George had to travel over to the UK, win the WCC, return to a series of “Bennett to Broncos” stories in the newspapers and then face a professional opponent, at one of the few grounds with a genuine home-field advantage in the competition. The Dragons stood tall in the face of all these potential distractions and announced to the competition that they will be contenders come September.

Individual Performance of the Week - Braith Anasta

Yes, Yes I am well aware that you could accuse me of being a complete homer with this pick, but stick with me whilst I explain myself. After returning to the 6 jersey in Carneys absence, Anasta displayed true leadership throughout the 80 minutes. Displaying his knack for being in the right place at the right time Anasta opened the scoring in the 6th minute. His kicking game was immaculate for the remainder of the game. Most importantly though, when momentum was all with South’s at the end of the game, Anasta’s leadership and skill shone through as he was instrumental in the key plays at the end of the game, particularly the short kick-off that led to the Try that re-took the lead. The Roosters played well as a team, and Pearce had his moments but Anasta showed the Rugby League world why he is the Captain of this team.

Goat of the Week - Referee Phil Haines
There is an argument that could be made for the entire Penrith or Cronulla sides for this award, but when a referee takes out a defender in the in-goal and is solely responsible for a Try being scored then this has been my easiest choice of the week.

ROUND 2 (Home Team first, my pick in Bold)

Eels (-2.5) v Panthers

As discussed in the Season Preview (last weeks column) we enter every season with storeys emanating from Parramatta Stadium telling us that this year was the year that the Eels finally understood the commitment required to succeed in the NRL, that they have never worked harder in the pre-season and that the Eels performances would finally equal their talent. It is easy to be dismissive of these reports, however, as discussed in last weeks column the difference this year is Stephen Kearney. It was clear from last weeks performance that Kearney has fully embraced the Bellamy coaching model, itself based on Wayne Bennett’s philosophy and it appears that more importantly the Parramatta players have also bought in. One of the most stunning stats to come out of Rd 1 was that the Eels did not attempt a single off-load vs. The Warriors. This showed a commitment to Ball Control and winning the Field Position game, no doubt Kearney will slowly remove the shackles as the players earn his trust over the season. As long as the large doses of crazy that have been the hallmark of the Boardroom at Parramatta can be contained away from the Football department then the Eels talent level make them a team you would prefer to avoid come knockout football in September. This should be a fun season for the Parra faithful.

Penrith on the other hand were just awful. As I touched on earlier I am currently working on a column that should explain why there is little reason for optimism in Penrith this year, I am gathering the stats for what will be an in depth column on the random nature of the attacking kicking game that I hope will input some science into the old ‘live by the kick, die by the kick axiom’ that is as old as Rugby League itself. But I digress, my main point is that Penrith need to be able to scare teams with ball in hand, this team has Michael Jennings, so when you hear Luke Walsh constantly refer to working on his kicking game in training it must drive Panthers fan nuts, what he should be working on is set plays designed to put the electrifying Jennings into space.

The only logical reason I can see for a line as close as 2.5 is that we had a lot of close games on Friday night last season and the TAB believes that teams don’t want to be embarrassed on the marquee Channel 9 games so will be more committed. I would argue that the reason we have more close games on Fridays is because Nine choose marquee games for that time and clearly they did not see the Panthers as I saw them, that as a team in decline.

Canberra (-2.5) v Broncos

Even during the middle part of the aughts when the Broncos were a perennial Top 4 contender they had a terrible record down at Canberra Stadium, so the 2.5 line seems very short considering that the Raiders are coming off a resounding victory, against the Sharks admittedly, and the Broncos are coming back from an uninspiring performance against the other 2010 bottom feeder, Nth Qld.

Basically these are the top, and maybe only 3 reasons why the Broncos might win this game

1. Darren Lockyer

2. Darren Lockyer

3. Darren Lockyer

Still Darren is that good that maybe, just maybe, he will be enough.

The one weakness in the Canberra team is a lack of big game experience. By big game experience I am not just talking about Finals games, but even just the marquee Friday Night Games. Being in a small media market, Canberra historically gets screwed when it comes to Free to Air telecasts. They get the odd Sunday Afternoon game, but Friday Night Football is a different animal to the Saturday and Sunday game. Both newspapers spend far more time focusing on the teams preparing to play Friday Night in the week leading up to the games as they know their readers want to be educated on what they will see when they flick on the football after work on Friday. So there are usually more one-on-one interviews and double page spreads on players/teams in the Friday Night Games than there are for the Saturday games. This means there are usually bigger media commitments for the players on these teams in the lead up. Canberra has been shielded from this for much of the last decade and has instead toiled away in Foxtel anonymity. That all changes this week, personally I think they will be fine, I find it more likely that they will be energised by the attention as opposed to it making them nervous and that is why I have them picked to win, however, if there is just a tiny bit of hesitation or fear in their play, then Darren Lockyer will be on hand to exploit it.

Storm (-3.5) v Titans

This is a battle of two of the most professional and best run Football Departments in the NRL so prepare for a high quality contest between two well drilled teams. By Football Department I am not talking about the Board Room or the Salary Cap end of the organisation, no, I am discussing the coaching, physio, Sports Science and youth development arms of the organisation. When compared to the Cronulla’s of the world it is like these clubs are playing in a different competition. In fact even when compared to their peers on the Premiership Table, these two clubs are have superior organisational strength at the Football Department level. Michael Searle has done a stunning job on the Gold Coast and when the lure of first rate medical staff and player development are coupled with the lifestyle afforded relatively famous, fit, young rich males on the Gold Coast when it comes to nightlife and women then the Gold Coast have a number of built in advantages that should ensure they remain a force in the NRL for many years to come. Craig Bellamy has done an equally good job creating a culture of excellence in Melbourne, I always enjoy watching these two teams go head to head.

I have Melbourne favoured in this game based mainly on Home Ground advantage, this coupled with the ‘Eff You’ mentality that I believe will be the driving force behind the team this season after the humiliations of 2010 should be enough to give Melbourne the advantage in this contest. One thing is for sure, it will be a cracking game and definitely one worth getting out to see if you don’t have Foxtel at home.

Wests Tigers (-3.5) v Warriors

The first game of the season between two teams that lost the previous week. Starting 0-2 is never a good thing and with both these teams rightly seeing themselves as contenders entering the season we should see a lot of desperation on display throughout the game. Leichardt is my favourite Suburban ground and it also gives the Tigers a real home ground advantage. The Tigers also have more quality in the Halves and with Tim Sheens as Head Coach they will enter the game well prepared and fully aware of the importance of getting back to .500

The Warriors on the other hand face some real challenges early in the season. Injuries have hurt them and the lack of quality in the Halves (an issue every year they have been in the competition without Stacey Jones is the Seven) is a definite Achilles Heal, but their dominating front row and real quality in the Outside Backs help to cover for these deficiencies and will give them confidence as they run onto the field

One thing that is certain is that this will be an entertaining game, containing as it does two teams that enjoy throwing the ball around and two forward packs unafraid to take risks with offloads, thus generating plenty of second phase play. If Benji Marshall can continue to develop the game management part of his game and show more patience, rather than trying for a miracle in every attacking set then the Tigers should win this game relatively comfortably. I still have my doubts as to whether Marshall has reached the level of maturity however, meaning I am leaning towards the Tigers but without much conviction.

Nth Queensland (-2.5) v Newcastle

Whew, what a tough round this is, so many close games, we are now 5 games in and the lines are all 2.5 or 3.5 the completion mantra of parity (mediocrity in my view, but that’s another column) is on full display this week.

This is another contest where is the game was being played at the other teams home ground then I would by tipping the opposite way. With Jarred Mullen’s outstanding performance last week taking away some of my usual confidence when tipping games that include Thurston that Nth Qld will have a huge advantage in the Halves, I have to look elsewhere for my keys to the game. A word on Mullen last week, he truly was outstanding, yeah Penrith were just terrible admittedly, but you can only play the opposition in front of you and Mullen took advantage of every weakness in the Panthers defensive line with deft ball movement and powerful, straight running. Of course one good game from a Number 7 with a NSW Birth Certificate will no doubt start the inevitable rush of columns extolling his virtues for the Sky Blues Number 7 Jersey* but I will avoid that here. Instead I will just point out that Mullen had an outstanding game in First Grade, which is a positive development for all Rugby League fans that have spent the last 2 years wondering what had happened to the promising kid we saw when he first broke into the Knights team.

*I mean Luke Walsh got his mandatory ‘NSW Half Back Bolter’ column last week in the News Ltd press, a column whose main thesis seemed to be, Andrew Johns is from Newcastle, Walshy is from Newcastle, ergo make him NSW Half Back, seriously it was that bad.

Nth Qld have way too much talent to finish where they did last year, that much is evident when you look at their roster, and something I should have considered before tipping them to finish well outside the Finals in last weeks season preview. It is nearly impossible to underestimate the effect that Dallas Johnson will have on this team. For the last few years Thurston has been basically the lone leader on this team, now on field, Thurston is an elite talent and a great on-field general and organiser. However, his off-field issues seem to preclude him from taking that Cameron Smith, Ben Hornsby type leadership, where through his very example he takes the culture of the club to a higher level. I believe Dallas will be the person (note, person not player) who provides this element to the club. Its hard to knock off early from a Weights Session when the only multiple premiership player on the roster is still in there, same goes for not working hard on field to get back the full 10 and not give away cheap penalties.

As mentioned before, Mullen was outstanding when it came to exploiting the holes and opportunities within the Penrith defensive line on Sunday, this week Dallas Johnson will be scrambling around covering those same gaps, and by his example will be ensuring that his teammates are doing the same. So with less opportunities to exploit at the attacking end of the field I tip the State of Origin and Test Superstar Half-Back, playing at home to be the bloke who takes advantage of them when they are there, and for this reason I am tipping the Cowboys.

South’s v Bulldogs (-1.5)

The Bulldogs once again looked like the Bulldogs on Monday night, with Frank Prichard and a couple of youngsters that seem to just roll off the Belmore Big Boppers Assembly line continuously pushing themselves over the advantage line, this was an old school Canterbury-Bankstown victory built on strong straight ahead ball running and up & in punishing defence. I am no fan of the Bulldogs, but as a sports fan I enjoy it how clubs carry identities through the generations and as a Rugby League fan it is somehow comforting to know that out west there is a team that wears Blue and White, defends up and in and believes a big forward pack is a key to victory.

South Sydney are the exact opposite, part of it is probably attributable to their enforced exile from the competition, some to the crazy ownership struggles of the last few years and the coaching merry go-round at Redfern has not helped, however the fact remains that the Rabbits are a team without an identity and it hurts them. What will hurt them more this week is the loss of Sam Burgess to a shoulder injury. If Burgess is in fact confirmed to be missing, then it is imperative that a search party is sent out to recover Dave Taylors confidence, it went missing sometime in the first half on Friday night and without its recovery South’s have no hope of winning a game that will no doubt be a forward battle.

John Lang needs to get something out of Chris Sandow for this game as well, for one of the few times this season the Rabbits will not be completely outclassed in the Halves as the Doggies are not exactly flush in that area themselves but it is still imperative that Sandow spends a lot of time in the video room this week and is as well prepared as he has ever been when he enters the field this weekend, because an 0-2 start coupled with a Burgess injury and an overweight Ingliss sounds to me a lot like how an article written in September 2011 will begin explaining what went wrong with the Rabbitohs season.

One last thing the Rabbits may want to consider, Ingliss was arguably the best Full-Back when he was at Melbourne, but Slater was a pure full-back whereas Ingliss could play in the Centre’s or even Five-Eighth they left Slater as the custodian. Well if Sandow and Sutton continue to show they are too incompetent to get the ball to Ingliss in dangerous areas when he is stuck out in the Centres, maybe it is time to consider moving him to Full Back and letting him control the game from back there much like the Eels did with Hayne in 2009. This may even be enough to motivate him to get in shape!!!

Roosters (-5.5) v Sea Eagles

Brian Smith has the full trust of his players and despite all the talk of how he has become more relaxed and calm as a coach, his legendary work ethic and attention to detail continue to give this still young and developing team an edge over most opponents. The game plan last week revolved around setting a solid foundation early and not allowing the new season’s nerves lead to early mistakes. So he sent out a starting Front Row that included Ryles, Kennedy and Piggy Riddell (in the run-on side for Friend who was named the Starting Hooker) and instructed them to play a safe brand of Football, running straight and hard, not looking to offload, get to Tackle 5 and then let the exceptional boots of either Pearce or Anasta establish Field Position. Once the Roosters had established a foothold in the game he then unleashed Mosse, Friend & Warea-Hargreaves for impact and this more dynamic line-up immediately got the Roosters on the front foot and helped them build a substantial lead.

Now the above game-plan seems so solid that you would imagine it will happen every week, but with Smith as Head Coach that will not be the case, each week the team will be prepared to take advantage of the other team’s weaknesses. For example, last weeks game plan was perfect for playing a Rd 1 game against South Sydney as with all the hype that follows that team into every season since Russel Crowe took over, it was important that the Roosters were not matching nerves with nerves, dropped ball with dropped ball. Smith understood that there was a possible advantage here and sent out a conservative and experienced line-up in the early going, leaving his impact for when the Rabbits had burned off their nervous energy and were settling into the game proper. Against the Sea-Eagles it will be a different situation, Manly still has a number of premiership players on their Roster, especially in the Forwards, so the Roosters can not rely on inexperience and nerves from opposition forwards to give them the edge. With Manly, the inexperience is to be found in the Halves and Smith can be expected to design a game plan to exploit any hesitation or nerves from the 6 & 7.

For Manly any hope of winning really revolves around setting a dominant platform with their big pack, getting Watmough to attack around the edges and getting Brett Stewart to feed off any off-loads as he is more likely to find space when receiving the ball in this situation than he will from his young half-back. If Carney plays for The Roosters then Manly need to make Anasta defend like a true second rower and see if they can wear him down and exploit any fatigue in the last 10 minutes, yeah Anasta is a solid defender, but he has spent most of his career in the Halves where he was a plus defender for a Five-Eighth, however now he is in the Back-Row they need to find out if he is still a plus defender when he has made 30+ tackles at the back end of games.

As I said in the NRL season preview, I don’t rate Manly this year and am looking forward to my beloved Roosters proving me correct this weekend, I think the Roosters have this game wrapped up by midway through the second half, and unlike last week I don’t think they will go inviting their opponents back into this match.

Cronulla v St George (-7.5)

Cronulla are truly an awful team, for all the good he did at Bondi, it is now becoming quite clear that Ricky Stuart is a poor first grade coach. Not only does he do a poor job of winning games and developing players he has a habit of leaving clubs in a complete shambles as he walks out the door. We often hear how great players do not make good coaches as they cannot understand why lesser players are unable to do things they used to find so simple and Ricky appears to be the very definition of this sort of coach particularly when it comes to Halves. So Shane Flanagan has a tough job re-building his roster and the confidence level of his young side. Unfortunately for him the Dragons already appear to be in mid-season form and look set to unleash a total beat-down of the Sharks on Monday night, thankfully for Cronulla this will happen in the relative anonymity of Monday Night Football

SEASON RESULTS

6-2

NRL SEASON PREVIEW

2011-03-09T15:46:00.001-08:00

2011 NRL SEASON PREVIEW

Welcome to season 2011, where after the stunning 8 from 9 run picking vs. the spread in last years Finals Series, we will be providing yet more opportunities to make money from following my picks. Or in the more likely scenario, the dream run will end and you can get rich by choosing the opposite of all my choices.

The Round One picks will be following in a column on Friday, what follows is the 2011 season preview, what follows is actually take 2 of the season preview. Take One was half written last week with a great introduction based around the lack of travesty’s involving players leading up to start the season, then Todd Carney was done drink driving (more on that shortly) closely followed by Benji Marshall deciding that 3 days after being the face of the NRL at the season launch would be a great time to go practicing his boxing out the front of a city McDonalds. Seriously it is getting to the point now that whichever player the NRL chooses to star at the season launch should just provide his mug-shot before he leaves the premises, it would save us all a lot of time.

Lets go back to the Todd Carney incident to begin with, to re-cap the facts, two weeks ago he went out on Friday Night (24 yr old males are allowed to that right?) and then woke up early on Saturday morning to drive to a meeting with his manager, on the trip he was pulled over by a police officer and given a random breath test, he still had some residual alcohol in his system from the night before and blew .052. Due to past traffic violations including incidents with drink driving he was driving on a .00 license, this led to him being arrested and charged with being over the limit. Now there is a scandal here, but not the one Phil Rothfield and the rest of the morality police that masquerade as Rugby League journalists in this town have tried to create.

When Carney pulled out of his driveway he had a Police Car driving down the road in front of him, from reports it appears the copper looked in his rear-view mirror, recognized who Carney was, pulled up, let Carney past and then put the Sirens on to pull him over for a ‘random’ breath test. Now I would suggest that no other car driving down that road at that time of the morning would have even been pulled over in that situation, it was only because Carney was an NRL star that the police officer in question decided to ‘randomly’ pull him over and breath-test him. This is the scandal, not Todd Carneys behavior, but the fact that Todd Carney was treated differently by an officer of the law because of who he was.

Not to get all political, but one of the basic tenets of life in a democracy is that ‘all men are created equal and treated equally under the law’. In this situation however, Carney was clearly treated differently than you or I would have been in that position, we would not have been recognized and therefore not pulled over and given a ‘random’ breath test. It is illegal to profile suspects based on race, gender or religion, Airport Security staff are not allowed to target Muslim’s or Arabs for extra attention at random screening stations for explosives, police are not allowed to randomly search aboriginals at a higher rate than the rest of the population for drugs etc, that is called Profiling and is a tactic that’s illegal for law enforcement officers to employ in the fight against crime. Yet it appears that profiling NRL Players for special attention when it comes to Traffic Violations is perfectly OK in NSW, at least according to intellectual midgets like Rothfield and Rebecca Wilson, well how would they like it if this form of profiling was put in place for illiterate sports journalists, I’m tipping they would be against it, if every time they went out they were afforded extra scrutiny by the police, hell I know they would be, seeing how over the top their reactions are to even the slightest criticism from their peers.

Onto the team by team season preview……..

Brisbane Broncos.

It is really, really tough to get a read on the Broncos at the moment. Sacking the coach 3 weeks before the season begins is never a good sign. Even though the little known assistant coach they have replaced Henjak with seems to be respected within the game, the fact they have all but put the word ‘Caretaker’ in front of his title is not a good sign. Brisbane has chosen this path as they wait to take pole position in the Bennett sweepstakes at the end of the season, unfortunately for the 2011 campaign this gives the strong impression that they are prepared to sacrifice this season while they wait for their shot at Bennett in the summer.

Such a strange stance for this club to take at this time, particularly with the amazing Darren Lockyer being at the tail end of his stellar career you would think that the club would try and make a real run at premierships in each of the last few seasons they have this true match winner on their roster, instead they are in this weird twilight zone of not re-building nor truly contending.

No big buys in the offseason other than Ben Hannant, the overrated Wallace partnering Lockyer in the halves and the aforementioned new coach on a one year contract, just too many red flags to have much faith in this team this year. It truly appears that this season will all rest on Lockyer's leadership and the development of some of the young kids particularly in the forwards.

Predicted Finish - 12th

Canberra Raiders

A lot of hype around this team entering the season, based mainly on the many talented youngsters we saw begin to show real promise in the second half of last season. This hype may well be fully warranted, especially as they have two genuine blue chippers in David Shillington and Terry Campese (currently injured but will be back for the run into the finals). Also Matt Orford is a smart buy for this team, he is a professional half-back, don’t know if I trust him to win you big games, and he is prone to go missing in big moments but he will be invaluable in helping this team get off to a solid start as they await Campese’s return and will provide a veteran presence to help guide the many young stars that make up the 2011 version of the Green Machine.

The main hype with this team surrounds the blistering play and boundless potential of their young Full Back Josh Dugan. Some of the play that Dugan produced last season was that of a true super-star in the making. Unlike Jarryd Hayne from the previous season, there just seems to be something a little more substantial about this years superstar de jour, mentally Dugan seems tougher and less likely to fall victim to his own hype than Hayne and consequently less likely to suffer a 2010 Hayne-like slump.

Still there is always the risk with players coming off a breakout season that as opposition coaches start to specifically game-plan for them and create specific strategies designed to take away the players ability to beat them using his primary skill and plays that have worked before they will quickly run out of ideas and lose their ability to impact games. This then raises the question for the up and coming superstar, do they have an elite secondary skill set that they can use to keep dominating games?

Dugan just seems like the sort of player and person who would have worked hard all off-season on adding some extra strings to his bow, like Kobe Bryant developing a post game in the off-season following his first Non-Shaq championship, the great ones never feel they have arrived and always work hard at developing themselves. Before you think I have gone all Rothfield on you, I am not anointing him early as a great one, based on ½ a season, I am merely saying that if he is to become an elite talent then he would have worked hard developing himself in the off-season and will see the fruits of those labors throughout 2011.

Still this can not be taken for granted and that is why the word ‘cautious’ precedes optimism in nearly all discussion of the mindset of Canberra Raiders fans, his elite trial form has helped remove some of this caution, but it will still be the first 5 – 6 weeks of the new season that will tell us a lot about Dugan and his young teammates, maybe by round 12 ‘cautious’ will be replaced with ‘unbridled’ and Canberra fans will start to dream of September glory.

Predicted Finish - 5th

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Such a transformation from this club in the last few years, a team that spent so many years on the front pages of the paper, with scandals from Coffs Harbor to the Salary Cap, Sonny Bills defection, Willie Masons all round craziness and a fan base that did not always show the club in the best light, the Bulldogs have recently become a professional and somewhat boring team. After an awful season on field after the Sonny-Bill drama, they quietly and competently re-jigged their whole team in 2009 bringing Brett Kimmorley on board and turned themselves into a serious contender for the title.

What does this have to do with 2011, well this offseason feels a lot like the 2009 offseason, again the Bulldogs have just gone quietly about their business, no big moves in the player market, no pre-season predictions of dominance, instead just a professional club preparing maturely for the upcoming season. If it was another club that had endured a season like the Bulldogs in 2010 and had seemingly done so little to upgrade their roster in the offseason I would have them penciled in for a finish in the lower half of the ladder. However, Canterbury (the new version) is such a well run organization that I view them as this years sleeper team, one that will not only challenge for a spot in the Finals but one that could be there deep into September. As a Roosters fan it is my duty to hate the Bulldogs and I happily fulfill that obligation on an hourly basis, but even though I hate them I still fear and respect them, the Bulldogs play a solid simple brand of Football, they always seem to have an assembly line of solid young forwards coming through the ranks who’ll give you an un-complicated, aggressive 130 Yards a game and if they can get consistent play in the halves, they will be a team you don’t want to face in September.

Predicted Finish - 6th

Cronulla Sharks

Cronulla are sort of like the Bulldogs, only the exact opposite. It’s so tough to even find 100 words to write about this awful team. Shane Flanagan appears to be a very good coach, I really believe that he was an underrated part of the success of the 2002-04 Roosters dynasty, so maybe he can get something out of this rabble, but it will be tough. With the departure of the overly conservative Ricky Stuart as head coach, maybe Anthony Tupou will finally feel free to express himself with the football and produce more of his signature off-loads and become the player that Cronulla thought they were signing 2 years ago.

It must have been so hard for Tupou to play for a coach like Ricky, basically Tupou has one elite skill, that is off-Loading the ball after drawing multiple defenders, basically creating instant attack, however with the ball control obsessed Stuart as his Head Coach Tupou did not feel empowered to utilize the very skill he was signed to provide, lets hope for his sake and for the sake of the long suffering fans in the Shire that Flanagan takes the shackles off and allows Tupou and his teammates express themselves.

If you are going to lose you might as well be entertaining, losing low scoring snooze-fests week after week for the last 2 years must have been brutal for Sharkies fans, let’s hope that if 2011 can’t give them more wins, it at least gives them more entertainment.

Predicted Finish - 16th

Gold Coast Titans

The big questions on the Gold Coast this year revolve around age. Is this team too old? Is relying on an aging half-back with a brutal injury history and the apparently ageless, but nevertheless aging Preston Campbell for most of your attacking flair a formula for success in a league that seems to be skewing younger all the time?

Look around the NRL at the moment, look at the ages of the players mostly regarded as the elite, gone are the days of the experienced older hands being the dominant players on the field, instead of Joey Johns, Freddie Fittler, Alfie Langer, Shane Webcke and other players around the age of 30 being the competition benchmarks we now have a league where each season seems to present a couple of players under 24 who are setting the standard for elite players and leading their teams. Over the last few years, the title of brightest star in the game as been passed around between Jonathan Thurston, Sonny-Bill Williams, Greg Ingliss, Benji Marshall, Todd Carney, Jarryd Hayne and now Josh Duggan. Salary cap constraints and player defections see the league getting younger and younger, even Cameron Smith (my choice for best player in the world) who feels like he has been around for ever at this point is still only 26.

There are so many questions for the 2011 Titans.

Will the age and experience of the Titans provide an advantage?

Will all that experience in big games, tough moments and defining plays provide the edge for this team as we get down to the big games at the end of the year?

Will the fact they have been there and done that allow them to negotiate the Origin period more clinically than their youthful rivals?

Will the grind of the brutal 26 week NRL season catch up with the older legs leading to a straight sets exit come finals time (if they get that far)?

This feels like more than just a season for the Titans, this feels like a referendum on where the league is headed, what happens with the Titans this year, a team that is smartly coached and has as good a front office as exists in the sport, will be watched closely by teams all around the league who will have to decide in future seasons, do we top up with experience if I feel like we’re close to contending for a premiership (not a concern for Cronulla of course), or will youth and fresh legs give us the edge we need. The 2011 Titans will have to find out all by themselves if experience still matters in the NRL.

Predicted Finish - 9th

Manly Sea-Eagles

Such a boring team I nearly forgot to even include them in my season preview. Des Hasler (worst Haircut in the NRL and that’s saying something) continually talks about flying under the radar and I really don’t think that will to difficult for them this year. Brett Stewart is a quality Full-Back who 10 years ago would have been elite, but he is a player born to the wrong generation. He is a solid ball runner and has a nose for the Try-Line but in the modern NRL you need more than that from your Full-Back if he is your best player. His ball-playing is sub-par so he is incapable of creating the sort of overlaps that Karmichael Hunt patented in Brisbane, this coupled with his straight ahead running style means he is incapable of threatening teams laterally. He will get his fair share of Try’s but without a top level half back feeding him into the miniscule holes that constitute gaps in the modern NRL defensive line he will not dominate the way he did with Orford and Monaghan creating those gaps for him.

Maybe I am wrong about this team, it’s certainly possible as I find them so boring, even their awful maroon jerseys are boring, that I find it difficult to take much notice of what is going on with the team, so maybe they will be a contender but I just don’t see it. This is a team that would have gone toe-to-toe with the Ricky Stuart Roosters, but much like Ricky found at Cronulla the last few years, the NRL has evolved and I think that Manly will be a team that goes the way of the Dodo and the dinosaur. By Round 15 we will start hearing rumors about the demise of Des Hasler, but even this would be a mistake, the issue for Manly is not Hasler who has proven he is a good coach for a club that is re-building or contending, the issue for Manly is a lack of game breaking talent, this is a blue collar team that will produce a blue collar style of play. Let’s just hope that all this workmanlike play will not put a good coach in Hasler out of work altogether.

Predicted Finish - 15th

Melbourne Storm

This week the Melbourne Storm will play their first game for premiership points in just under 12 months. After the well documented salary cap issues last year, this is a different looking Storm team than what we have been used to in many ways, but in the most important areas it still looks very much the same as the juggernaut we have known over the last 4 – 5 years.

Yes there is no Greg Ingliss anymore, a couple of the $200K+ a year forwards have gone, and they will surely be missed, but they still have the best player in the world (Cameron Smith) the most dangerous match winner in the code (Billy Slater) and a half-back who seems like he was genetically manufactured to run a Craig Bellamy coached team (Cooper Cronk). They also still have an elite coach in Craig Bellamy. Make no mistake, this team has been weakened at the edges, it might not be as dominant as it was in years past, but they are still my tip for this years title. There are so many reasons to fear this team, let’s list just a few here:

1. This is a team that will be in complete and fully fledged EFF YOU mode all season, after being humiliated and forced to play for nothing for basically the entirety of last season; this team has been through a uniting experience unlike any other in team sports. They have waited for 11 months to come out and reap their revenge on the competition, this will not be a team that takes its foot off the throat of any opponent this year, I can see 3 or 4 scorelines of the 48-4 and 54-6 variety. There are two types of teams you never underestimate, teams that have the mindset of “Nobody believes in us” and teams in complete ‘Eff You Mode’, both these mindsets are born of feelings of disrespect, the Melbourne Storm don’t just feel disrespected, they feel that the league tried to humiliate them, Craig Bellamy is a proud man, I expect a proud response.

2. If every player in the NRL was made Free Agents tomorrow and a league wide draft was instituted to re-spread the talent around the League the Storm have 3 players who would definitely go in the Top 10, and quite possibly top 5 (Cronk is not the 5th best player in the game, but he is a half-back and you can’t win without an elite Half-Back in the modern NRL) Cam Smith would be picked first, 40 tackles a game, smart ball player and the cherry on top a great kicking game, having a non-half who can kick is one of the most valuable assets in the modern game as it means opponents cannot tee off on your halves come tackle 5 so even if Smith doesn’t kick the ball, his very presence buys extra time for Cronk to get his kick and he has one of the most astute short kicking games in the NRL.

3. Being in Melbourne helps immensely, no Police Officer is randomly recognizing NRL players in Victoria and subjecting them to unfair treatment of the type Todd Carney faced, they can go out and live relatively normal social lives and as the Storm players are basically the only people in Victoria who understand the game it all but forces them to hang out together, helping forge stronger bonds than exist at clubs in Sydney.

4. An elite coach in Craig Bellamy, very few players leave the Storm and become better players at their new club, this says something about the systems, both in-game strategy and their development on the training paddock, that they have down in Melbourne, and this is an elite Football Department, that develops its players better than any other team in the competition.

So they have an elite coach, you just know that by Round 12 we will be talking in glowing terms about 2 or 3 Melbourne players, probably forwards, that we don’t even know the names of today, they have an almost unprecedented motivation level and are led by 3 of the best players in the world. That sounds like a contender to me.

This is shaping up as one of the all time great EFF YOU seasons in the history of World Sport. If they win, just seeing Gallops face as he is forced to present the trophy to Bellamy will be epic and the Cam Smith/Craig Bellamy post GF speech could be one for the ages.

Predicted Finish - Minor Premiers/Premiers

Newcastle Knights

Interesting times at Newcastle, with the quasi-buy out by Nathan Tinkler creating yet another interesting new ownership model in the already byzantine governance structure of Rugby League in this country. I’m currently undecided on what to make of this Tinkler fellow, from what I have seen so far you can tell he genuinely loves the game of Rugby League, this is not a situation like Clive Palmer with the Gold Coast A-League franchise that appears to be more about ego than love of the game. Tinkler genuinely seems like a Rugby League die-hard.

Also he seems to have some good ideas that frankly should have always been part of the Newcastle charter anyway. The Hunter region creates so many good footballers, that Tinkler is right when he says a Hunter Valley 17 would be a very good chance to win the premiership (he said they WOULD win, I say they would be a bloody good team that would have no hope of being under the cap). Still his plan of creating a team made up mainly of Hunter Valley juniors is so obvious that it seems crazy that this would not be the Newcastle plan anyway, then you remember that Paul ‘Chief’ Harrogan, hardly an intellectual colossus has been a key figure on the Knights board for the last few years and any failings up Hawkesbury way start to make a lot more sense.

I also like the fact that he has repeatedly said he has neither the time, nor the inclination to run a Football Club, as a fan of the Washington Redskins in the NFL, let me tell you there is nothing worse than a sports team owner who treats your team like his own real life version of a fantasy team and starts micro-managing playing personnel decisions. However, straight after saying this we find out that he is calling Kane Snowden and all but telling him not to sign with Cronulla because he should come to Newcastle. Well the question clearly is, if he was doing this stuff when he is just a donor to the Knights, now that he is a much more influential member of the organization will he still be making these calls, and what happens when he wants a player with or without Hunter Valley roots and the Head Coach thinks that the player does not fit his system, in this situation whose opinion will matter more, Coach or Owner?

It’s all well and good to espouse a philosophy and expect decisions to be made that fit within it, which is just smart management. A good front office appoints a Head Coach and a Football Manager, sets some parameter’s and then steps back and lets the experienced/talented people he has hired do their jobs. The nightmare scenario for fans is when the Owner/Front Office starts putting in their 2 cents on what should be done with individual players. One thing is for sure, for non-Knights fans this will be fun to watch either way. As for this season, I feel the Knights are a team and a club in transition and unless Jarrod Mullen has huge season they will be closer to the bottom of the ladder than they will to a spot in the Finals. The question then is, will Tinkler be able to sit back and observe what happens to his money, or will he feel compelled to tell them where to spend it? (See told you this will be fun)

Predicted Finish - 13th

New Zealand Warriors

Yet another club that is really tough to get a read on for this season. It has become such a cliché to talk about inconsistency with this team that I am embarrassed to be writing this sentence, but it is unavoidable…… This is a team that if it can develop a mentality of consistent effort not only week to week but also within games will be very dangerous, but no-one knows if they can or will. Its so strange too because Ivan Cleary is a very high quality coach, he is measured, calm and committed to the fundamentals of Rugby League, and even he can’t break this team of its maddening multiple-personality disorder.

I believe that clubs develop cultures that define them, yeah coaches can come in and occasionally impose their will on the club and you feel they have changed the culture of the place, but usually when they are gone, clubs return to the personality that has historically defined them. For example, Anderson did some good stuff at Cronulla, imposed a level of professionalism on a club not used to it and managed to get some good results, but even before he was gone, they started to just be Cronulla again. The Bulldogs are a factory that pumps out big mean aggressive forwards, and no matter what the trends of the league are, they will always be a club that plays with an aggressive up and in defense and wins with its forwards.

So maybe the Warriors, who remember are now about 11 years old as a club, just have a culture of inconsistency, maybe the high-risk, high-reward, free-spirited way they play, with multiple off-loads, from massive framed but sublimely skilled Polynesians has way of seeping off the field of play and defining the culture of the entire organization, maybe their inconsistent playing style (unavoidable with the risks they take) has a way of becoming part of the DNA of the club. Yep, it’s a crazy theory, but can you come up with a better reason why if you Google the New Zealand Warriors and pull up a Newspaper Story or a match report from any time of the last 12 years I can all but guarantee that the word inconsistency will appear somewhere in the article (go ahead and do it, the column will be waiting for you to come back…… see what I mean, it was there wasn’t it?).

So this year, will they be good or bad? With absolutely no confidence at all in my pick, I am guessing this will be a down year, but that is only because I have so many teams I think will be good this year that I have to pick some teams to be with Cronulla down the bottom.

Predicted Finish - 10th

Nth Qld Cowboys

The big unknown with this team entering the new season is what impact did the Phil Gould review have on the operations and structure at the club moving forward. This cannot possibly be downplayed in considerations of the prospects for this club. North Queensland last year was a complete and utter shambles (surely it is not a coincidence that the lowest points in the recent history of 3 different clubs, Bulldogs, Roosters & Cowboys came when Willie Mason was on the Roster right??). Thurston who until the last 2 years had appeared to be a model footballer, well when related to on-field and training anyway, suddenly was feuding with his coach, playing uninspired football and appearing on the periphery of all sorts of unsavory incidents and story’s.

It really appeared that Thurston only appeared fully engaged in 2010 when playing Origin for Queensland; this had to be frustrating to his coach and his teammates. I mean it was just so obvious, there he was in a Maroon jersey charging around the field, patting players on the back, barking out orders and generally appearing to be involved not just physically but spiritually in all aspects of the game, then as soon as he put on the (hideous) Cowboy Jersey (seriously, time for a re-design of that horrific jersey) he seemed sullen and disengaged. If the fans can see it, believe me his coach and teammates can and that has to impact the mood of the playing group and the club as a whole.

Which leads us back to the Gould Review, say what you will about Phil Gould (full disclosure: I am a huge fan of his, yeah his bluster can be over the top at times, but he is a Rugby League savant) the man has a full and deep understanding of the game, he knows how to relate to elite sportsmen, he understands what makes a good organization tick and he just understands Club Rugby League. If the club bought in, more importantly, if Jonathan Thurston has bought in and the club and player can mend their differences then Nth Qld could be the surprise of the 2011 season. Never forget, Half-Back is still clearly the most important position on the field, an elite Half-Back can cover weaknesses at other positions and there is no doubt that an engaged Thurston is elite.

What I see happening is that Gould’s review will have a positive impact on the club in the early rounds, and Nth Qld will get off to a solid start, but once the grind of the season really begins and a couple of bad losses in a row happen, the fractures will re-appear. Nth Qld may not be a terrible team, but there are a lot of good teams this year and I just cannot see them making the Finals.

Predicted Finish - 14th

Parramatta Eels

Another pre-season, another round of stories and quotes from Parramatta telling us how they finally get it at Eels stadium, how they have never worked so hard in a Pre-Season before, how the players are finally going to match their potential this year. How this is for sure, absolutely 100% going to be the year when Parramatta fully buys in and commits to doing all of the tough, unsexy but crucial things that are required for a team to win the Premiership. So is this the year where it happens or will it be like all the others in Parramatta, are all these quotes just more hot air from the west, or is their reason to believe this time?

My view is that this year, Parramatta will be a force to be reckoned with. Stephen Kearney has been the next great coach for the last 4 years, and it certainly seems like he could have left Melbourne a number of times in recent years to be the main man elsewhere, but from what I have read, he remained in Melbourne because he still felt he had more to learn and he wanted to be fully prepared when he got his first gig as the head honcho. This should encourage all Eels fans as it shows that in a profession filled with ego-maniacs who always believe that they are the smartest person in the room, you have a Head Coach with self-awareness and perspective.

Coming from Melbourne, working under Craig Bellamy for a number of years, you just know that the traits of hard work, commitment to fundamentals, focus on the basics as well as an understanding of top level sports science will all be key parts of the Kearney coaching structure. He seems like the right man for the job for me. Now it just remains to be seen if some board level madness will engulf the club during the year and provide the massive distraction that has become a bi-annual event for Parra.

The playing roster does look very strong, Nathan Hindmarsh will continue to be Nathan Hindmarsh, though it would be good if Kearney could achieve what no other coach has been able to and convince Hindy that it would be in the teams best interest if he made 6 or 8 less tackles per game and used that saved energy to be the damaging ball runner we all know he can be.

Daniel Mortimer will be a crucial cog, the question is as he gone and developed the new tools in his game (discussed in the Canberra section) that he clearly had not spent time developing before last year, the lack of which leading partly to his sophomore slump. I also would like to see Jeff Robson returned to the Half-Back role and Mortimer returned to Five-Eighth, that is the structure that gave them success in 2009 and even though Robson is anything but a sexy option at the glamour Half Back position, he defends well, he moves the ball quickly and efficiently to his more talented team-mates and generally just doesn’t get in the way. This doesn’t sound like much, but when you have the talent in the backs that the Eels do that can often be enough, which leads us, as most things do with Parramatta to Jarryd Hayne…

Hayne is not the player we saw in the last 12 weeks of 2009, nobody is that guy for an entire career. Those 3 months were the result of a perfect storm of talented athlete, playing with great freedom and in amazing form against a competition that was unprepared to create the strategies required to deal with a player of his size and pace playing almost perfect football. It truly was an epic period of sustained excellence and one of the truly great sporting performances I have seen, but no one can possibly keep up that level for an entire career.

Luckily for Parramatta fans they do not need Hayne to play at that ridiculously other-worldly level to have success; they just need him to play at his true level, that off a Top 3 Full Back/Top 20 Player with the god given ability to 3 or 4 times a year all but win a game on his own.

What the Eels do not need, is the sulking, whining often disinterested version of the Hayne Plane we saw last year, which reminds me, probably wouldn’t hurt him at all to lose the whole ‘Hayne Plane’ thing altogether. Personally though I get the feeling that Kearney will get through to Hayne, at least for year one, and as long as they get off to a good start, and with Duggan breathing down his neck for the Blues Full Back Jersey Hayne will remain motivated and power the Eels into September.

Oh by the way, speaking of the his 12 weeks of excellence in ’09, some journalists got that carried away, and were so devoid of any perspective or appreciation for the 100 year history of the game that he was being called the best Rugby League Player of all time, yep I am not making this up, go back and read the story’s written at the time. This was such a ridiculous insult to the careers of players like Graeme Langland’s, Joey Johns & Clive Churchill amongst others that any journalist who wrote such rubbish should have his fingers chopped off so we would never have to read their tripe ever again. Of course one of these pathetic writers to jump on the G.O.A.T (Greatest of All Time) bandwagon based on a 12 game sample size, was the Daily Telegraphs resident nut job……. Phil Rothfield.

Predicted Finish - 7th

Penrith Panthers

The Panthers are such a boring team this year; they literally have nothing to get me the least bit excited. At least with Cronulla the last few years you had the possibility of seeing a team that was historically atrocious. With this years Panthers team, you just see a professional grind it out team, with a well respected and good coach, albeit a coach that you get the feeling is at the end of his time with this group of players. When you start hearing the little whispers that were coming from the foot of the mountains last year about issues between the Head Coach and his players that stuff never really disappears and it is always just a 4 game losing streak from returning in full force.

But even that may not be a problem this year, as Penrith look like the quintessential bubble team, I just see them spending the whole season on the fringe of the Top 8. I also see them playing a lot of really boring games, relying as they did in 2010 on the kicking game for most of their attack. When I think of the 2011 Panthers, my minds eye just conjures up an image of Saturday Night (Can’t see the Panthers playing too man Channel 9 games this year), cold, wet and miserable, with a small crowd and a ball being kicked to the corner for leaping winger to try and get the ball down, just boring, boring, boring rugby league. I also hear something too when I think of the 2011 Panthers, the thing I hear is the shrieking voice of Luke Walsh’s mum. My mates and I had the misfortune to run into Walshy’s old cheese at a game last year, my mate Brenden who, how do I say this politely, vigorously enjoys and fully employs his right to free speech when he attends the football, was spending a good portion of the Roosters-Panthers game offering Luke Walsh some unsolicited advice on his overall ability and specific play, well we soon found out that Walshy’s mum was in the vicinity and she took exception to Brenden's interpretation of her sons impact on the game. What looked to be her long suffering husband sat beside her, and I swear I am not exaggerating had his head in his hands as Walshy’s mum got into a shouting match with Brendo. It has to be explained here that Brenden though boisterous is really just a fun loving harmless bloke, but he is nearly 6-6 and solidly built and you could tell that the long suffering companion of Mrs. Walsh wanted no part of any dispute with him, not that this stopped her from carrying on like a pork chop (how exactly does a pork chop carry on by the way). Anyway it was most entertaining, and if you want some entertainment at Panthers games this year, because God knows the Panthers wont be doing much in the way of entertaining, seek out an Old Typical Westy looking woman yelling way too much and way too loud for Walshy. Then go up and offer a dissenting opinion on the skills of the jockey known as the Penrith Half Back and believe me a boring Panthers game will suddenly provide you with lots of entertainment and a story to tell on Monday when you get to work, trust me you wont be disappointed.

Predicted Finish - 11th

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Is this finally the year for the Rabbit’s? Since their return to the competition this has been a popular pre-season refrain from the Rugby League community. This year there are many reasons for optimism, but equally there exist many concerns about the structural make up of this team. South Sydney do have some of the best players at their respective positions in the world but also many concerns.

Firstly the positives, Sam Burgess is not only a charismatic media personality, he is also one of the best, if not THE best Prop in the world today. He is the evolutionary Adrian Morley, and the similarities go far beyond the country on their Birth Certificate, like Morley, Sam is a brutal and destructive ball-runner on the edges as well as a dominating defensive force. With his front row partner Dave Taylor, South’s have the most dangerous attacking Prop tandem in the world, whereas Props at all the other clubs play the whole season in fear of the dreaded end of season nudie run that is punishment for going a whole season without scoring a Try, the Rabbits may get more Try’s from their front row than most teams do from their entire pack.

It is not just the big boppers who will cause opposition teams nightmares this season either, with Greg Ingliss joining the team this season, South’s can readily claim to not only have the worlds top Prop, but also the worlds best Centre as well. A motivated Ingliss is still the most exciting player in the modern game, at 6’4”and a 110 kg, Ingliss has the build of a large 2nd Rower, but moves with the grace of a Gazelle and escalates through the gears like a Ferrari, there are few more beautiful sights in Rugby League that Ingliss shedding a would be tackler before accelerating away from the defenders into the open field. With Nathan Merritt a proven Try Scorer on his outside, South’s seem like a team that should have a lot of Try’s in them, but when you look more closely, there are areas of concern that could de-rail this season.

The area I am referring to, obviously, the Halves. In the Salary Cap era, if you invest a lot of money, and therefore a high percentage of your Salary Cap in one area, you have to go cheap in others. This is the reason that the Storm let Ingliss go, when it was clear they would have to lose one the big 4 (Ingliss, Smith, Cronk & Slater). There is little debate that Ingliss is a better player than Cronk, and you could argue is the best player of the lot, but the Storm made the wise decision that losing an elite Centre is less damaging than losing an elite player from your spine. The most crucial positions on the field in the modern game are no secret. Half-Back, Hooker, Full-Back & 5/8 are the positions that touch the ball the most and in the case of Full Back in the most dangerous areas.

South Sydney however, have chosen the opposite path, which makes it ironic that they were the team to pick up Ingliss. Whereas the Storm have invested a large portion of their Cap Space in the spine and relied on a blue collar pack and youth in the backs, the Rabbits have done the exact opposite, getting elite props and backs whilst trying to develop a halves combination on the cheap. Sandow is at best a streaky Half-Back and Sutton while a talented Ball Runner lacks elite ball playing skills which means Sth Sydney are below average at the two of the most crucial positions on the field. The question is will an elite Front Row and talented Outside Backs make up for the deficiencies at the scrum-base, we will find out over the next 26 weeks.

Predicted Finish - 8th

St George-Illawarra Dragons

Last years Premiers enter the season with all their key pieces from last season in place. Boyd, Soward and Hornsby will continue to direct the team around the park, Soward's elite kicking game will ensure that the Dragons have a distinct advantage in the field position game against nearly all opponents and Morris will continue his development into the games pre-eminent Try Scoring threat. Still the major advantage this team will have over the 2010 Dragons is Mark Gasnier. Yes Gasnier was a part of the Grand Final winning team and was a solid contributor after his arrival from French Rugby half way through the season but it was clearly not the Gasnier of old, he was more like the deleted scenes on your favorite DVD, yeah he offered some valuable extras, but he was not crucial to the story.

This year will be different, with a full pre-season under his belt he will likely have resumed his leadership role and no doubt will be a much bigger part of the overall game plan. To repeat as champions is incredibly difficult in the Salary Cap era, being as good as last year is never enough, luckily for the Dragons, Gasnier will provide the improvement that is required for them to remain at the pointy end of the ladder.

The big issue facing this year’s team will be the potential distractions associated with Coach Wayne Bennett’s contract situation. With half the competition lining up to bid for Bennett’s signature at the end of the season, there will be a constant flurry of rumors throughout the year about different team’s potential offers, poorly researched story’s, often written based off a single misinterpreted quote will unleash days of media speculation about Bennett signing with everyone from the Bronco’s to the Baghdad Police Department, the question is will this be enough to derail the season. Bennett could end any risk of distractions tomorrow by signing an extension, but with Brisbane all but laying Red Carpet from Kogarah to Suncorp to entice him back, all indications are that he will return north at the end of the year. Is St George a team that is mentally strong enough to overcome the drama of the Bennett sweepstakes, my guess is no.

Predicted Finish - 3rd

Sydney City Roosters

As regular readers are aware the Roosters are my team, however, I will try to look at my beloved team with at least some perspective. In fact that should not be too hard as I have real concerns for this team entering the year. My biggest concern is that I hope the Roosters have spent the off-season preparing for this season with a mindset that they are the team that was 20 Seconds, a knock on and an amazing field goal away from being knocked out in the first week of the Finals rather than seeing themselves as the Grand Final runners up. This team gave its fans a magical ride last season, but that should not blind us to the significant holes in the team and the amount of improvement this team requires to be truly considered a title contender on the level of the Storm & St George.

Shaun Kenny-Dowall is a case in point, as any Roosters fan can attest; Kenny-Dowall like the team as a whole, can be exhilarating and infuriating in equal measure. Too often he runs east-west and totally breaks down the attacking structure of a team based on the swift lateral ball movement of Carney and Pearce, this is a team that throws the ball sideways and runs straight, but Shaun often deviates from the script and ruins entire attacking sets. Then, just as you are ready to give up on him, he will unleash a run like that in last years Semi-Final against the Tigers that most players are incapable of even contemplating, never mind completing.

Kenny-Dowall therefore, like I said, is much like the team as a whole, at their best there is no team in the competition that can match the Roosters attacking flair. Everyone marveled at Carneys 30 metre cut-out balls and imaginative kicking game last year, but what makes him & Pearce so dangerous is that teams have to focus equal effort to combat their ball running as well as their ball playing abilities. This buys them time every time they touch the ball in attacking areas and results in defenders being caught flat footed as they get caught in two minds over what to defend. The other under-rated part of both their games, but particularly Pearce is their Defense. In an era, where an illiterate fool like Phil Rothfield anoints a complete defensive liability like Benji Marshall as the best player in the game, Pearce plays like someone who understands that half the game is spent in Defense and he and Carney take real pride in this part of their game. Pearce to me is the true successor to Andrew Johns as the complete Half-Back, no, he is nowhere near as good as Joey, I doubt I will ever see a player in my lifetime who is, but he is the successor in the sense that he is a complete footballer, many modern NRL players are athletes who happen to play Rugby League, Pearce is a Rugby League Player who happens to be an elite athlete, there is a big difference between the two.

Finally, so much of the Roosters fate this year will rest on Brian Smith. Moving Anasta to the back-row is the best thing for the team and for Anasta himself, who has always been a more dangerous ball runner than he ever was a ball-player, but there is still an ego to be managed here, and it is the coaches job to ensure that Anasta does not see the move to the back-row as a negative commentary on his play in the halves, but embraces it as a commentary on his elite ball-running skill.

Also Brian Smith has to find a way to develop the many young players coming through at Bondi, Kane Linnett and Mose Mosoe are two examples. Both showed flashes of real talent last year, but if the Roosters are to take the next step this year it is imperative that these two and the other younger players at the club continue to develop and add consistency to their games. Mose needs to evolve from a player who gives you a destructive 10 minute burst against the opponents reserve forwards and develop into a start of game enforcer, one who can go toe to toe with the Dave Shillington’s and Sam Burgess’s of the world. If Mose realizes his potential this year, he will be out there at the start of games setting the tone, he will not be providing entertaining but ultimately unsatisfying cameos in the middle of the halves as he did last year.

As for Linnett he just needs to be more consistent, the Roosters have craved a true speed merchant on the outside since Todd Byrne was tackled by a fatigued Scott Sattler in the 2003 Grand Final (ultimately costing the Roosters a Premiership), Linnett can be the answer, and hopefully start to wipe away the pain of the memory of that tackle. (Who am I kidding, that is a pain that will never be erased, even whilst writing this sentence I am running that play through my head again and screaming at Byrne to stutter step inside, no matter how many times I replay it though he just runs straight into Sattler’s sliding tackle…. Fuck I hate Todd Byrne!!)

So Roosters fan have real reasons for optimism this season, the main concern is how they negotiate a brutal early schedule, facing the Dragons, Bulldogs, NZ (away) and the Broncos all in the first 6 weeks, following the rivalry game against South’s. If the Roosters can come out the Anzac Day game with a record above .500 they will be well set to launch an assault on the Top 4 and maybe play all the way into October. (Wait, why am I jinxing them before a ball has been kicked….. The Roosters are a terrible team and will undoubtedly miss the finals…… that’s better)

Predicted Finish - 2nd

Wests Tigers

So as mentioned above, Phil Rothfield, in his pathetic rip off of the famous AFL Top 50 column, (a pre-season staple of his News Limited Colleague Mike Sheahan for the last 20 years) listed Benji Marshall as the Top Player in the game and he is not alone in that view. Do these people even watch the games? Seriously, do they? Benji Marshall is an amazing offensive talent, with his quick feet, rare vision and amazing ball playing skills he is a threat to create points at all times. However, and this is a huge however, he is probably responsible for more busted plays and wasted sets, than any other ‘elite’ Half/Five-Eighth in the game. Too often he goes for the miracle, when it comes off it is repeated endlessly on Sports Tonight and the Sports Segments on the news bulletins and this is why I seriously ask if Rothfield and is ilk actually watch the games. Because if they did watch the games they would see the 7-10 occasions a game where Benji grinds his teams attack to a complete standstill by trying to be too clever with the ball in hand. Andrew Johns (the best Footballer I have ever seen) was the master at making sure every single attacking possession counted, he would do this by ensuring that every attacking set had a purpose, and each of the 5 tackles in each attacking set meant something. He would get his players in motion at all times and often just run simple inside-outside plays that offered no immediate threat, so that he could assess what the defense was doing and who they were keying in on in different situations and then put that knowledge in the memory banks and exploit it 3 or 4 possessions later.

Benji on the other hand, lacks patience, he try’s to make something happen on every single play. Intellectually lazy journalists would use a phrase like “this is his greatest strength and his greatest weakness here” but that is complete bullshit. Benji's greatest strengths are taking advantage of turnovers and quickly turning defense into attack, in getting the ball in broken play and exploiting staggered defensive lines. His insistence on trying to make something of nothing when the defense is well set is Benji’s weakness, yeah occasionally something will come off, but more often than not what happens is Benji runs around like a chook with his head cut-off whilst 12 other Tigers stand around watching him completely perplexed and with no idea where to run and the whole set is wasted by Tackle 3. If Benji learns patience and starts thinking 3 moves ahead, then look out NRL, but currently he is not even the games best attacking player, never mind its best overall player. Which brings us to the main, flashing neon lights reason of why it is almost criminal to label Benji Marshall the best player in the world, and that is his historically atrocious defense.

Jamie Soward at least has an excuse for his turnstile impressions in the defensive line, the dude is basically a midget, and the same goes for Preston Campbell. Benji on the other hand is physically similar to Todd Carney in height and weight, yet Carney is a solid defensive presence, whereas Marshall basically has a flashing neon sign saying “Target” on him when he is in the defensive line. Now with his history of shoulder injury’s you can excuse some of his defensive frailty, but what you cannot excuse are his glaring technical deficiencies when he attempts to tackle. He goes way to high, often leaving his feet to tackle, which then means he has no leverage whatsoever to use to stop his opponent, it’s simple physics. Also, he to often tackles with his arms and not his body. A player truly committed to elevating the defensive part of his game would have spent time working on these technical glitches, then again an athlete committed to being the best he could be, would not be eating McDonalds at 3am one week before the season begins would he. Benji is a great footballer and the Tigers hopes rest with him, but he is a long way from being the number one player in the code.

With all of this it might seem I have little faith in the Tigers, this would be incorrect, Benji, as I said is an elite talent, just not the best player in the world. Tim Sheens is one of the best coaches in the game, Farah is a top 3 Hooker and with Gareth Ellis this Tigers team had real grunt up front. The Tigers will be a dangerous team all year, and maybe even a title contender, and they will certainly be a team that no-one wants to face in September.

Predicted Finish - 4th

So the season begins in two days, how many of the above predictions will come true, my guess would be Zero, maybe 2 or 3 if I am lucky. One this is for sure, it is going to be a lot of fun finding out.

I was going to write a full column for this weeks picks but after 9500 words you will just have to settle for my choices I'm afraid

Roosters (-2.5) over Rabbitohs

Cowboys (+6.5) over Broncos

Eels (+6.5) over Warriors

Dragons (-4.5) over Titans

Storm (-4.5) over Sea Eagles

Raiders (-9.5) over Sharks

Panthers (-3.5) over Knights

Tigers (-1.5) over Bulldogs

NRL Grand Final Review

2010-10-06T04:22:00.000-07:00

Well what a fizzer.

The search for 9 from 9 and the perfect Finals tipping against the spread came crashing to a halt against the brutal efficiency of the Dragons, with a little help from stage fright (Roosters) injury (Phil Graham) and the referee's.

Let me start with the referee's not because I believe they were the determining factor in the result, but because this has not been mentioned elsewhere and even though the final score was 32-8 the refereeing was not a non-factor. Allow me to explain, then I will give the Dragon's the plaudits that there is no doubt they both earned and deserve.

The reason the refereeing blunders matter is not because of their frequency as much as it was their timing. The Roosters knew there only hope of upsetting the minor-premiers (Team the finished on top of the ladder for my non-Australian readers) lay in getting an early lead, it was imperative they did not allow the Dragons to score first and they had to be leading by a minimum of 10 points at the half-time break. Well on the Dragons first real attacking raid, Brett Morris was tackled my Sam Perrett and had both feet planted firmly out of bounds before passing the ball inside to a player who was tackled, then one play later the Try was scored. This was not even close, it wasn't like Morris grazed the Touchline, in fact he was so far over the sideline as he passed the ball it appeared he was about to buy a pie from the Concession stands, it was just a deplorable miss by the Touch Judge, who was right over the top of the incident as it happened. I mean if a Touch Judge is not going to spot that, then really there is little point in him even being there, but the Touch Judges were not done screwing up yet. So the Dragons took an early 6-0 lead but the Roosters hit back with 2 great Try's, though crucially the usually reliable Carney missed both conversion attempts so a potential 12-6 lead was instead a razor thin 8-6 advantage. To prove that every member of the officiating crew was determined to screw up soon after taking the lead the Roosters crossed for another Try by Joseph Leilui in the corner that was ruled back for a forward pass. Replays showed that this too was an incorrect call, of the 5 angles shown by Channel 9 only 1 even indicated the ball MAY have been forward, all the others showed it going backwards and this Try should have stood. If converted this would have been a crucial 8 point advantage and as the stats show, the Dragons have only been able to come back from greater than a converted Try deficit to win twice this season. Finally as the Dragons began to strangle the game and drive home their advantage in the 2nd Half a clear knock on by Dean Young was ruled not have occurred by the always awful Bill Harrigan in the Video Refs Booth and the Dragons gained an insurmountable lead, just as the rain began to tumble down. As I say these things need to be mentioned, but they were not the reason the Roosters lost.

The Dragons were just too good, it was tempting to end that sentence 'on the day', but when looking at the record between these 2 teams over the last 4 years, including the annual marquee Anzac Day encounter it is clear the Dragons just have the Roosters measure at the moment. From the beginning of the game the Dragons just dominated the advantage line, getting quick play the balls in attack and driving the Roosters forwards back in defense. Even with the ridiculous missed call on the 1st Try the Dragons were the dominant team at this point and probably deserved their lead on merit. This was followed by the only 15 minutes of the game where the Roosters really got into the contest. Jarrod Warea-Hargreaves came off the bench and immediately gave the Roosters some punch in the forward contest and won some of the collisions, and this along with some clever dummy-half running by Sam Perrett finally gave Pearce and Carney some room to work in. Two well constructed Try's were the result.

Another part of the Roosters game plan that worked at this stage was their focus on Ben Creagh. Creagh is a damaging and talented ball-runner with the capacity to terrorise teams on the edges. The Roosters came up and in early every time the ball went near Creagh and just bashed him, leading to 3 dropped balls. This was a tactical master stroke by Brian Smith, the only question, Why did the Roosters move away from this tactic in the 2nd half? I can only imagine that Smith was concerned Bennett would instruct the Dragons to use Creagh as a decoy runner only in the 2nd half, but in one of the many fascinating tactical twists in this game, it appears Bennett anticipated that is what Smith would think and instead used Creagh even more in the second half, the Roosters did not re-adjust to go back to the first half strategy and Creagh ended up with the most metres gained of any forward in the game, as I say fascinating strategic machinations were a major part of this game, though with over 1200 First Grade games between the 2 head coaches this is probably not surprising.

So at the half is was 8-6 to the Roosters and as the rain began to tumble down in the 2nd half, so did Dragons points. The middle of the ground turned into a bog after the earlier lower grade finals and the Dragons looked much more willing to get down in the mud and grind than did the Roosters. The rain made it a true war of attrition and this was exactly what this St George team have thrived on for 2 years now. The Roosters then made mistake after mistake after mistake, Anasta who has been a rock all season for the Tri-Colors was awful in the 2nd half with 2 dropped balls early in the tackle count at his own end of the field leading to Dragons Try's in the next set of six. The Dean Young Try that was the back-breaker has it put the Dragons out by 2 converted Try's came soon after an Anasta knock on. The loss of Phil Graham to a pectoral injury was also devastating for the Bondi club. With young Leilui on the left wing in his place, the Dragons fired a lot of plays down that side and the 18 year old made 2 terrible decisions in defense that led directly to Dragons 4 pointers (converted to 6 by Soward on each occasion) I don't want to be too hard on Leilui because the kid is full of potential and will be a great player for many years to come, but he just doesn't have either the experience or the understanding with the equally inexperienced Kane Linnett in the Centers that Graham had. Also Graham would cover for the inexperience of Linnett during the season, but now Linnett had to cover for Leilui and he was not good enough or experienced enough to do it. However, both these players have bright futures, in fact like the rest of this Roosters team, this Grand Final probably came 1 year too early in their development for them to be able to handle the pressure of the occasion.

So congratulations St George, many people are saying this Premiership was the culmination of 2 years work and it was, though you could argue this was the culmination of a decades work, St George should have won a GF in 2005 and probably in one of the years between 2002-04 also but they always came up short in the big games, the Bennett Factor got them home this time and this is a team that as long as it keeps up its motivation will be a powerful contender next year as well along with the Melbourne Storm who will be in full blown eff-you mode after the Salary Cap scandal destroyed this season and the Roosters who will be better for the run and, this being the NRL, there will no doubt be a bolter that we are not even thinking about at the moment who will be part of the conversation come September 2011.

Finally, some discussion of the Pre-Match entertainment put on by the NRL. A colleague of mine made the very good point that the AFL, in yet another example of its million light years lead in professionalism over the NRL administration managed to get Lionel Ritchie on one weeks notice for the replay of the drawn Grand Final after having INXS for the Grand Final that was drawn the week before. The NRL in contrast had You Am I, a good band who had their best years 10 years ago and were nothing more than an indie niche Australian Band even then and the excruciating spectacle that was Jessica Mauboy and Justice Crew. Now this just proves the NRL has no idea what its fan base is, at the Grand Final their marquee event, for Pre-Match entertainment they bring out a girl to sing an awful pop-song about her High Heels, yep that's exactly what the blokey western Sydney audience that comprises the NRL's heartland was after for their Grand Final entertainment, songs about High Heels with the full faux paparazzi entrance, while a bunch of pre-pubescent kids break danced around her and fake polished her high heels. I refuse to believe that any more than 5% of the crowd was enjoying this display. In fact you could feel the energy level in the Stadium lift when You Am I started singing Rolling Stones covers after Mauboy finished. Again, the AFL had INXS, the NRL had a bunch of has-beens singing Rolling Stones covers. Andrew Demetriou, the AFL CEO is an oaf, but NRL CEO David Gallop is so pitiful he allows Demetriou to stride the Australian Sporting scence like an administrative colossus.

Again it is imperative, when and if the independent commission is put in place to run Rugby League ALL POSITIONS MUST BE DECLARED OPEN and applications accepted. Gallop is welcome to apply but he should not be handed the keys to the future of the game like some drunken wealthy legacy kid taking over the family business.

On this note, some final thoughts on the season just gone will follow before the test series starts, lets just say my end of season awards will not look kindly on the individuals running the game.

The Thursday NFL Links

2010-09-29T18:12:00.000-07:00

A new feature for the Blog, that will be updated, hopefully daily, but at least a couple of times a week. I will be posting links to some of the better NFL articles I read during the week.

MMQB by Peter King is a must read for any NFL fan, the beauty of it is, for my non-US followers he discusses the game and the issues surrounding it in a educational manner, so you don't need a deep understanding of the game to appreciate it, on the contrary MMQB actually increases your understanding of the issues in the game.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/09/26/Week3/index.html

Don Banks weekly Power Rankings. There are a number of sites that offer Power Rankings, but unlike the completely unreadable tripe offered up by Gregg Doyell at CBS.Sportsline, Don Banks analysis actually offers some information that can actually help you gain a deeper understanding of the game. Sorry to do 2 SI.com links in a row, but both of these are must read articles for me every week.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/don_banks/09/29/power.rankings.1/index.html

The always entertaining and occasionally controversial Jason Whitlock on Donovan McNabbs return to Phili this week to face Michael Vick in the game of the Week for Rd 4 in the NFL. Being a 'Skins fan I hope he's wrong, but I fear he is right, tough year coming for the Washington Redskins.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/michael-vick-donovan-mcnabb-not-a-fair-fight

For Fantasy Football enthusiasts, Matthew Berry offers quality advice (not that my current record in both my leagues shows it) in an entertaining style.

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=tmr100928

This next column is an absolute must-read on a weekly basis for anyone who wants to gain a deeper understanding of Game/Clock management and the impact of NFL coach’s in-game decisions on the outcome. Michael Lomabrdi is just brilliant, terrific insight and his calming influence always makes NFL Total Access are more enjoyable show when he is on screen. So many of those panel type shows can turn into debate for debates sake type shows, Lombardi brings a cool analytical presence to the show and you can see those same traits in his writing. Just a brilliant Football mind, and he survived working for Al Davis with his sanity!!!

Bookmark this guy and also follow him on Twitter @michaelombardi for constant access to his amazing insight

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81aebdfb/article/mccarthys-challenge-raises-red-flag-costs-packers-chance?module=HP_cp2

Good Video on clock management from Lombardi also

http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-england-patriots/09000d5d81ae97f1/Game-Management-The-clock-is-your-friend

Finally my good friends over at Hogshaven.com have a great community for Redskins fans where the comments section and Fan Posts always include lively debate that is well moderated by Ken and Kevin. Ken and Kevin are also great writers in their own right and that site is worth checking out for any Skins fan on a consistent basis.

Here they have a great discussion of the 3-4 Defence with ex-Redskin Matt Bowen

http://www.hogshaven.com/2010/9/29/1719370/former-redskin-matt-bowen-remain-patient-with-the-3-4

The above will get you started. I will be hoping to post more of these sorts of quick posts, with links and the like in future.

Or you can follow me @ozsportsdude on twitter where I will begin doing the same things

NRL GRAND FINAL PREVIEW

2010-09-27T04:37:00.000-07:00

The Search for 9 for 9

All of you are now well aware of my other wordly gambling performance in the NRL Finals. After the Preliminary Final weekend I am now 8 for 8 and with a big start being given to the Dragons (-6.5) at this time, I get to take my team the Roosters this week, even though I doubt they will win. The Dragons are just not a team built to blow teams off the park. So although there is a Manly 08 risk here, of mind numbingly boring team all of a sudden blows a team off the park on Grand Final day, I feel confident that taking the Roosters will give me 9 from 9.

The Preliminary Final again saw games that were awesome advertisements for the sport of Rugby League. By a complete miracle, Saturday Night even saw a great advertisement for the NRL, a packed stadium in Sydney for a game that was not a Grand Final. Though I would give Channel 9 and both Sydney papers more of the credit for that crowd than David Gallop and the NRL marketing department. Truly was a great sales job by the media this week.

Friday was without doubt the best Roosters performance I have seen for 3 years, possibly longer. The final score was a blowout, but this game was not in the bag until there were 15 minutes left and those first 65 minutes were a true examination of the mental toughness, skill, stamina and desire of both teams. It would be harsh to say that Gold Coast cracked, but the Roosters certainly stayed committed to their game-plan for longer and were the more disciplined team and in the end deserved their victory. In the end this was not a game won by Carney or Pearce as so many tight games have been for the Roosters this year, instead this time it was Anasta who broke the shackles for the Tri-Colours, with an assist by an absolutely awful video ref intervention.

The Key Moment came around the 50-55 minute mark, Anasta took an inside ball from Carney who was then hit by a Titans player just after he passed the ball, Braith saw Carney get hit late and when he was tackled stayed down, definitely feigning injury, even gesturing back towards Carney to give the Video Ref time to review the play. The Video Ref, as is always the case, enforced the letter but not the spirit of the law and the Roosters got a penalty. So tackle 4 on the halfway line, became tackle 1 on the 20 and 2 plays later Anasta himself burst over for a try that put an end to the Titans resistance. Just a smart, veteran play by a player who has grown into a true leader, personally I don't like that sort of gamesmanship, and if Scott Prince had done it I would have whinged about it for approximately 2000 words in this space, but the rules are what they are and as long as this great game continues to be run by Administrators and the referees department while ex-players are ignored you have to exploit any loophole you can before your opponent does.

Speaking of Scott Prince, I went into this game, from a Roosters perspective, terrified of his short kicking game, but the Roosters defence was so overwhelming between the 20 metre lines that he rarely got to put it into effect and was strangely ineffective when he did. From my memory he only forced 2 line drop outs for the game (and yes I am lazy and should go and check the stats, click on my the ads on this site and I will quit my job and have the time to do such things). This truly was an outstanding defensive performance by the Roosters, the question is can they back it up next week, is it possible for a team to put in its best defensive performance in years 2 weeks in a row? that is the key question for NRL fans and the gambling public as we look towards the game this week. Luckily this Dragons team will not ask as many questions of the defence as the Titans were capable of last week. On the other hand they will also be a much sterner obstacle for the Roosters attack to overcome.

What a game that was on Saturday night, the Tigers threw absolutely everything they had at them, but the Dragons just, in the accurate words of Phil Gould "Strangled the life out of the game". Like so many Dragons games this year they just relied on strong defence a solid kick/chase and ball control, its not flashy, they don't really entertain, if you had a choice of watching a cup of room temperature water evaporate or Manly v Dragons, I would be asking what sized cup of water? However, when they play exciting teams like the Tigers, the Raiders or the Roosters then the contrast in styles makes for riveting viewing.

As mentioned in this space last week, Benji was capable of anything in this game, with 'anything' including the good and the bad. There is little doubt the Tigers would have been out of this game well before the 70th minute without Benji on Saturday night, but that does not negate the fact that Benji was responsible for the 2 killer plays in the last 10 minutes. First his kick out on the full was the reason the Dragons had the field position necessary for their winning Field Goal, this was a particularly galling mistake as it was clear at this point of the game that the Dragons were not trying to win the game, but were waiting for just this type of mistake and for the Tigers to lose it and Benji complied. The most frustrating thing about Marshalls mistakes was that just 3 minutes earlier he had launched a 60 metre bomb on Tackle 2 that gave the Tigers great field position themselves and seemed to indicate that Benji understood the importance of playing the game at the other end of the field at the end of the game, to follow this smart play 4 minutes later with the overly ambitious effort that sailed out on the full was as perfect an example of the yin and yang of Benji that you could ever hope to see. After Soward's clinical field goal, Benji then spilled the ball on Tackle 3 on half way and it was basically game over. The Tigers fought to the end and can be proud of their season, they will deserve to be among the favorites next year, but for now its Roosters v Dragons for the Grand Final on Sunday evening.

Phil Gould cops a lot of stick from Rugby League fans, but for all his faults his insight into the game is unmatched, that is why I find it so odd that I disagree with his assessment of what the Roosters should do this week. Gould's theory is that the Roosters should follow the template of the Wests Tigers last week, play for a 12-12 scoreline and hope Pearce and Carney provide the magic at the back end of the game and win that way. Personally I believe this will be playing right into the Dragons hands. You cannot out-grind the ultimate grinding football team.

My view is that the Roosters should chance their hands early in the game, throw the ball wide on Tackle 5, kick for early 40/20's and generally be prepared to take some calculated risks early to try and jump to an early 2 score lead. The Dragons do not chase well, they are 4 from 10 when trailing by a Try this season, the stats for coming back from 2 Try's down are even worse. The Roosters best chance to win this game is get in front and rather than watching the Dragons choke the life out of the game, instead watch the Dragons just choke, as all the doubts built up from 28 years of failure manifest themselves in the opponents psyche. There is merit to the Gould plan, but I strongly believe there is more benefit in taking some risks and going for the jugular early, if the risks fail and they fall a Try behind due to a (Kenny-Dowall??) mistake, then they can switch strategy and go to a grind it out style. The Roosters will be playing this game on a knifes edge, they just cannot, I repeat, absolutely can not afford to fall behind by 2 Try's, because if St George are given a chance to tackle their way to victory for 70 minutes after taking an early 2 Try lead, then they will happily take the offer, go with one out running, complete all their sets and defend their way to the Premiership.

Anyway your 8 from 8 gambling maestro will now give you some Pre-Grand Final gambling tips for the key gambling options.

Clive Churchill Medal Winner

Braith Anasta - Roosters

I could have taken the easy option here and gone for Carney or Pearce, but Clive Churchill medals are often won by back rowers (props rarely play enough minutes to please the voters) and Anasta will give you a Back Row tackle count with a halves style impact on the passing and kicking game.

Ben Hornby - Dragons

Hornby is a massively under-rated member of the Dragons outfit, if the Dragons win by a small margin then I can see Ben being involved in the key plays that give them victory.

First Try Scorer

Kane Linnett - Roosters

You will get good odds for this pick, probably in the $14 range, Carney and Pearce both do their best work on the edges, and with the desperation that the Dragons defence shows at all times I can just see Carney bursting through a hole, being dragged down and offloading to a Centre of Back Rower, I'm going with Linnett only because he fits that option but also he has genuine pace, so if this scenario doesn't play out he is the most likely Rooster to go the length of the field.

Dean Young - Dragons

The Roosters marker defence can be sloppy at times and I can just picture Young burrowing over from Dummy Half late in the first half.

Finally my drive for an unprecedented 9 for 9 Finals Series against the spread.

You know I'm going Roosters regardless if you read last weeks column where I excoriated any fan who dares tip against their own team, but I am very happy that they are being given a 6.5 start by the bookies. So again, like last week I just don't see the Dragons being a team that can blow a team off the park, so the 6.5 start makes no sense to me and I will gladly take the points.

Lets hope for a cracking Grand Final, this finals series deserves it, but most of all lets hope for a Roosters win!!! (I make no apologies for my bias at this point, any true fan knows the joy of your team being in a Grand Final, well that is any true fan who is not a fan of Cronulla)

NRL Finals Week 3 Preview/Week 2 Review

2010-09-22T04:40:00.000-07:00

There have been many great performances so far in this NRL Finals series, Todd Carney lighting up the Panthers on Saturday Night, Scott Prince’s kicking game in Week One and Benji playing with injury to spark the Tigers on Friday night, but none of these compare to your Ozsportsdude going 6 for 6 against the spread in the Finals Series to this point. So what happened in Week 2 and what does this tell us about who we can expect to meet in the Grand Final.
Many issues plague the leadership and administration of the National Rugby League, and this site will continue to rail against the incompetence that prevails at the summit of the sport, but that does not stop us enjoying this great sport when it is as exciting as the Finals Series has been so far.
The Tigers v Raiders contest on Friday night was great entertainment from start to finish. The beauty of this game is that it showcased 2 teams that went out to win rather than not to lose. This mindset has been the Hallmark of the Tigers all season and is the reason that their games are consistent ratings winners for Channel Nine. This is a team that attacks from all over the field, will throw passes inside their own 20 and constantly ask questions of the opposition. The Raiders rose to this challenge and with 27 000 fans packing Canberra Stadium they played their role in a sensational contest.

The influence of fans is so often underrated in sports, this Canberra crowd appeared to understand when their team needed them and rose to the occasion magnificently, willing their team on at crucial moments throughout the game. In the first half the Raiders had conceded some soft Try’s early and appeared to be shell-shocked by the Tigers potent attack and were suffering some big game nerves among many of the younger, non finals tested players. They were in real danger of letting the game get out of hand in the first half hour when the Tigers rolled down the field and forced a line drop out. The crowd raised their game at this point and inspired the Raiders to hold out, eventually forcing a spilled ball and prevented the game from turning ugly, the Raiders then scored 2 possessions later and it was game on. Even though they were down by 14 points at half time, that defensive stand had changed the game, now the Raiders believed in themselves and the 2nd half was a completely different contest and the proverbial 18th man, the crowd had played a huge role.
However it was the players who were going to have to win and Canberra’s leaders on the football field, unlike the Politicians down the road actually rose to the challenge. Campese was in everything in the 2nd half, playing a role in all of the Raider’s 2nd half 4 pointers. If he had not gone down with injury on the play that got the Raiders within 2, you can’t help but feel the Raiders would have found a way to score the points to put them through to a game with the Dragons this weekend, or would it have been the Roosters, this confusion is yet another ridiculous part of the McIntyre system. Here’s a thought Sports Administrators, if your play-off system confuses your fans, had no one actively defending it and has many people openly criticising it, then maybe it is not the best system, just a thought.
So at the end of the game the Raiders as we all now know had a Penalty from 35 metre out on a slight angle which was pushed wide. A crushing blow for the player and his teammates, the good thing was after the game all his teammates made the obligatory quotes about it not being his fault etc. I have seen a lot of these types of interviews in my years of watching sports and I have developed a pretty good antenna for when the players are repeating what they have to say and when they are meaning it. This Canberra team meant it, after the missed kick, his teammates were right with him straight away. There is great spirit in this Canberra team, unlike the flash in the pan Eels who got hot last year, this team had been built with youth and is probably a bit ahead of schedule making the Finals this year. They remind me a lot of the 2007 Hawks in the AFL, a team that has grown up together who have got to the Finals a year ahead of schedule. The spirit these teams develop, when they grow together is real and the foundation is solid with this Raider Squad, I don’t envisage a Parramatta type drop off for them next year. The Eels are full of talented but lazy players, in many ways what happened to them last year was the worst thing that could possibly have happened to a team with their attitude. That Eels team already believed they were better than what they were, the 2009 late season surge just reinforced their arrogance and led to the 2010 let down. This Raiders team is different, they seem to instinctively understand that they have to work for their results, they don’t see themselves as underachievers who showed what they were really made of like the ’09 Eels, the 2010 Raiders seem to see themselves more as overachievers and will work hard to improve next year.

In the end though their nervous start came back to haunt them and an impressive Tigers team that is amazingly well coached punished them for it. This ended up being enough to book the Tigers a date with the Dragons on Saturday Night.

The Roosters v Panthers game in contrast was a bit of a fizzer. I said last week that their was irony in the Roosters meeting the Panthers, as this Penrith team was so much like the 2008 Roosters, relying too much on the kicking game for Try’s. Well they ended up with the same fate as that Roosters team, bowing out in straight sets. I was at the game and before the game watched Luke Walsh go through his pre game kicking routine and it was very impressive. Have you ever noticed how many deep kicks seem to roll just one to many times and come to a complete stop just one rotation over the dead ball line? Well in his pre-game warm up I only saw Walsh kick 2 balls over the Dead Ball line, all the others pulled up within inches of the corner of the in-goal, these kicks were all from between 30 and 50 metres out, very impressive.

The problem he had was that in the game the Penrith Forward pack never gave him good Field Position and on the odd occasion they got in the Red Zone (attacking 20 metre zone) the Rooster put pressure on the kicker or instead of playing it smart and looking for repeat sets with grubber kicks, they went to the high cross-field kick which was defused with ease by a very composed and disciplined Rooster team. They will not find the Titans to be quite so accommodating on Friday night.

To the Preliminary Finals and the search for 8 from 8.

Roosters (+2.5) over Titans

This will possibly be the pick that costs me the perfect finals series, but I’m such a homer when it comes to my teams I just can’t bring myself to tip against them. I am not one of these idiots who tip against their own team and justify it by saying “Oh this way I win either way, if my team wins I’m happy and if they lose at least I picked it right”, well NO, that is a bullshit way to think and a cop out, if you have any friends who feed you this rubbish, be sure to call them out on it.

This Titans team really scare me. Living in Sydney, we don’t hear much about the interstate teams in the newspapers, because heaven forbid journalists would give us the best story’s and rely on, you know, journalism and story telling rather than trying to sell an extra few thousand papers by putting a picture of a player from a Sydney team on the Back Page with a story that runs for 3 paragraphs about 2 cookie cutter quotes from the previous days cookie cutter press conference. The Titans are a truly great story this year as well as being a great team. Its only 4 years ago this team was an idea in Michael Searle’s briefcase. Now in their 3rd year in the League, with a great stadium, passionate fans and a Front Office that sets the standard for innovation in the NRL they are one game from a Grand Final. Unlike the AFL they have not done this with massive concessions from the other clubs but by going out and building a team with a solid base at the key positions. A full column about just how amazing a club this really is will be coming in this space soon.

For this week though it is more pertinent to look at what they have on the field. Scott Prince is in the conversation for best Half-Back in the game. Thurston has done amazing things at the Rep Level but has also been the leader on a club team that consistently underachieves. Prince on the other hand takes every team that he starts for into the Finals. He is one of those Half Backs, like Cooper Cronk who does all the little things well. He knows when to play for the repeat set, rather than the Try, he has a great long kicking game, throws quality cut out balls and organises the team brilliantly. Picture Scott Prince and you don’t think ‘Flick Passes’ and ‘Banana Kicks’ if anything you think of him waiting for the ball from his Hooker, crouched forward, one hand on his knee, the other pointing at a forward to get in position and planning what is going to happen 3 tackles later. Yes you could say Prince scares the crap out of me this week. He has the key weapons that a Half-Back like Prince thrives off as well. Hard Running smart back rowers who always hit the line at speed and at clever angles, quick wingers who ensure his classic grubber kicks result in line drop outs, by always being alert enough to pressure the Defenders into clearing the ball or tackling them in-goal. The Titans also have Preston Campbell there to provide the magic that is so often required in tight games to get crucial points against the run of play.

So after all that you may wonder why I believe the Roosters can win. Well there are a few reasons other than by blatant homerism. The long kicking game is a key part of Finals Football and the Roosters have 2 of the best in the NRL at this aspect of the game, in Pearce and Anasta. When your Forwards have a poor set and you find yourself on Tackle 5 on your own 30, a good clearing kick can turn a bad set into a good outcome and help you win the Field Position battle. With both Anasta and Pearce capable of finding grass 60 metres downfield it also buys them both the time to make these kicks as the opponent cannot key in on one guy at the end of the set, particularly when Carney is lurking ready to chance his hand and go with the Running Game in that situation. Still on the Long Kicking/Field Position game I can see Todd Carney getting one 40/20 at a crucial time in this game.

This leads to the 2nd and probably main reason why the Roosters will win. Carney is just playing other-worldly football right now. At the game on Saturday I focused on him for large chunks and I just saw a guy who is seeing the game in slow motion at the moment. Opponents freeze when he gets the ball, which only serves to buy him more time, and not only does he try the unconventional, such as throwing it wide on tackle 5 in his own half, but he is good enough to pull it off. Importantly his team believes in him, there was one Try in the 2nd half that was very telling on Saturday Night.
Many of you probably remember the Daily Telegraphs pathetic attempt to create a story out of nothing last week and sow discord in the Roosters camp buy asking Mitchell Pearce if he felt like a ‘Side-Kick’ to Todd Carney. This was a classic example of the depths of journalism in this city. They didn’t have any quotes from Carney, Pearce or their teammates that would have led them to believe Pearce saw himself that way, or that Carney saw Pearce that way, but by asking the question they get to write the story they want to write, even if it was emphatically denied by Pearce.
Well on the 2nd Half Try that I found insightful, Pearce had laid the final pass after attacking the line for, I think it was Kenny-Dowell, to score in the corner right in front of where I was sitting. However, Pearce did not go to SKD, instead he turned went straight to Carney, pointing and gesturing to say “That was all you, that was your Try’ as it was Carney who had thrown the cut-out ball to Pearce in the move. It was a genuine moment between two teammates who clearly like each other. I just suppose that the real story of how the 2 Key Rooster playmakers have developed great chemistry does not make as good a headline as ‘Sidekick’ or ‘Discord’ even if those latter 2 ‘story’s’ were practically fabrications by the Newspaper and had no basis in the reality of what was going on at the Roosters.

One major advantage for the Roosters, handed to them by the incompetent NRL and the one that I believe will get them over the line is the location of the game. The new Titans stadium is a great facility, but more importantly is big enough to create a rocking atmosphere yet small enough that the crowd is right on top of the field. It is not a fun place for visiting teams as is shown by the Titans home record since they entered the comp. However the NRL in their wisdom have forced them to travel 2 hours up the road to Brisbane. Suncorp will not sell out and many of the seats will be filled by Roosters fans who always get a solid following in Brisbane, rather than Titans Stadium which would be standing room only and full of only Titans Supporters, Michael Searle must be livid, he works with the Qld government to get a beautiful facility built that holds 30 000 people but the NRL moves the game 2 hours away from the fans who have supported the team all year.
So to Re-Cap after finishing 6th the Roosters got to play at the SFS when the Tigers agreed to play the first final there rather than Leichardt. This was a noble move by the Tigers designed to maximise the number of fans who could attend the game, a noble move by the Tigers that just happened to take away the major advantage that Leichardt would have given them and give the Roosters a Final at their home ground. Then thanks to the ridiculous McIntyre System, the 6th placed Roosters hosted a final against the 2nd placed Panthers at the SFS again and now they get to avoid the cauldron like atmosphere that would have been generated at Titans Stadium and instead get to play at Suncorp where if history of Roosters v Broncos games is any guide the crowd will be about a 60/40 split in the Titans favour. Not bad for a team that finished 6th.

Tigers (+6.5) over Dragons.

As soon as the Dragons turned chicken and kicked Penalty Goals against the depleted Manly in Week One to go from 6-0 to 8-0 to 10-0 to 12-0 to 14-0, I lost faith that this was a team with the belief to come through in big moments of a tight game. More importantly from a gambling perspective I completely lost faith in the notion of them blowing a team out of the water, that is why as soon as saw the points were offered in favour of St George this week I was always going to take the points, especially 6.5 of them, I was incredulous when I saw that line, I really though it would be 2.5. The Dragons could possibly win this game, but I see it being tight and I see them choking and I definitely do not see them covering the spread.

We so often hear this Tigers team is ‘Capable of Anything’, it’s important to remember that ‘Anything’ includes the bad stuff, yes they can come out and Benji can throw behind the back passes, but he can also throw them into touch. Still there is a lot to like with the 2010 edition of the Tigers. Farah continues to be the most creative Dummy Half in the game and so much of this teams success is based on him making smart decisions about when to release Benji to try things and when to send the ball to the other side of the ruck and rely on his Forwards and Robert Lui to do the sensible things. Lui himself is much under-rated. When he takes on the line he causes problems and his long passing game has improved dramatically over the course of this season. Beau Ryan may not know anything about comedy but he does know a lot about maximising opportunities out wide. Gareth Ellis has been great again for this Team, he may not get the hype of Sam Burgess, who is a star at Sth Sydney and deserves the praise he receives, but Ellis is massively important to this Tigers outfit. He along with Keith Galloway does the gritty stuff, the tough stuff that allows the Marshalls and the Farah’s the space to operate in. In fact this West’s team has a massively underrated forward pack and their Battle with the big units in the Big Red V will be a key factor in this Saturday Night Match-Up. I just see the Tigers having a little bit too much class when it matters, I see them getting the points they don’t really deserve thanks to a moment of individual brilliance, whereas I think the Dragons will have to strive for every point they score.

This Dragons team does so many things well that should mean success in September, Weyman is a powerhouse up front, they have 2 strike weapons at the key position of Centre, a position along with Back Row that I believe is more and more crucial in the modern game, Gasnier has the potential to provide the spark to get them over the line, but then again we have been saying that all his career and he has never actually won anything. Matt Cooper will be crucial in taking away one half of the field from Benji Marshall as he is still the best defensive centre in the game and will read many of Marshalls trick plays down his side of the field and defuse many dangerous situations. Soward though still a liability in Defence will march the team down the field well, employ a top-level kicking game and help his team win the battle for field position, he will get his Forwards involved and release Morris and Boyd as soon as the opportunity presents itself. Just writing this paragraph I find I am talking myself into the Dragons, then I remember those 4 Penalty goals and all I can think is Buck Buck Braaaaawk.

Chickens don’t win Premierships in 2010, unless, as I sincerely hope happens, they are Roosters!!!

NRL Finals Week 1 Review & Week 2 Preview

2010-09-14T09:03:00.000-07:00

Well what a great start to the NRL finals series, yes the games were great and we will get to them in a moment, but the true highlight was clearly ozsportsdude going 4 for 4 against the Spread in Week 1. Anyone who read this column in Week 1 and took my advice would have done very well for themselves. Not only did ozsportsdude correctly pick the 2 upsets, but in all 4 games I picked the teams to cover the spread, quite a proud day for this young website.

Now to the games, for all the failings of the current NRL management and overall leadership of the game, the sports still has the capacity to put on a great spectacle and Finals Week One was a prime example. Friday night, for those few who watched it (seriously just how many things got broken in the Channel Nine offices when the McIntyre system forced New Zealand v Gold Coast to be the marquee TV ratings game on Friday night) was a game that re-emphasised the primacy of the Half-Back position in the modern game. These two teams were evenly matched in every position across the field, with the Warriors probably stronger on the wings, but with Scott Prince at Half-Back the Titans were in control all night. His ability to force repeat sets with the kicking game was a major reason for their win. The replacement Full Back Zillman was probably man of the match, but it was Prince who won the game. It still frustrates me how often other Half-Backs think try on every 5th tackle option inside the 20 when repeat sets are so crucial in today's NRL. Prince is not one of those Half-Backs, he is without doubt the best exponent of the little grubber into the in goal that force line drop outs in the game today and his full repertoire of kicks was on full display Friday night. The result, Titans win and thanks to other results they now have a "home" final in 2 weeks time. (The reason home is in parentheses is because the NRL are forcing them to play it at Suncorp, which is madness, yeah they will get an extra 5000 or so by moving it, but rather than have a jam packed Gold Coast stadium, with stories about it being the hottest ticket in town filling the papers, instead the AFL will get to laugh, yet again, as the NRL only half fills a stadium for a Preliminary Final at Suncorp) 'NRL leadership, where shooting ourselves in the foot is an art-form'.

The Saturday games were the highlight of the weekend however.

Roosters-Titans, what can anyone who saw that game say except WOW!!!!.

That was Rugby League at its best.

The Tigers paid a massive penalty for not converting their early dominance into points. Gareth Ellis went over the Try Line 3 times but was denied each time. The 2nd one has me completely perplexed. Benji Marshall in a stunning display of selfishness threw a punch after playing the ball meaning that video review overturned the Ellis try. What was stunning about this was that in a game that went to Golden Point Benji seems to have gotten off Scott-free in the media for this. Now if this happened in the last minute I am sure there would have been more made of it, however the time does not matter, 6 points were taken off the board due to this petulant act, yet the Rugby League media has not said a word about it, I'm tipping that if it had been Willie Mason and not the media darling Marshall who had thrown the punch he would have spent the week being raked over the coals in the Sydney Press for it. This type of favoritism from the media is just hypocritical in the extreme.

Speaking of our culture, one thing that frustrated me on the weekend was the reaction to the call by Ray 'Rabbits' Warren. I am sure you have heard about it by now but I'll give you a quick re-cap. After Ellis had the 3rd Try taken off him, Rabbits exclaimed

"Gareth is going to want to go to the Gap after this, don't do it Gareth, don't go to Watson's Bay"

Now for those who don't know, The Gap is a place in Sydney that is well known as a suicide hot-spot. As soon as Rabbits said this, I thought of the switchboard at Channel 9 lighting up with indignant do-gooders over this. Well it obviously did, as Rabbits was forced to apologise during the call of the Sunday game. This type of thing drives me insane. Are we so vanilla as a society now that we can't even allow our commentators make flippant remarks like this without it turning into a chance for a bunch of people with no lives to kick up a stink about this stuff and get their stupid mugs on the TV. The letters written to both papers in Sydney showed their is a whole bunch of these people living in Sydney with too much time on their hands, here's a thought for these people, rather than taking time to express your indignation over harmless remarks by Rugby League commentators use that same energy to volunteer at a charity somewhere. These are the same people who will sue the council if their kids break their arms at the local park and cause them to be closed. We cannot let ourselves be shackled by these people and Rabbits should not have apologised. Anyway back to the game.

So the Roosters had nothing going in attack and the Tigers had a 13 point lead half way through the 2nd Half. Then it all changed and as has happened so often it was Todd Carney's individual brilliance that sparked the side. First he played a brilliant chip kick to himself before sending Anasta over in the corner, before crucially converting from the sideline. From then on the Roosters dominated and the last 10 minutes of the game was played entirely in the Tigers half of the field. When Pearce crossed to cut the lead to one it looked like Farah's first half field goal might prove crucial as the Roosters were nearly out time. Then the excitement started, after forcing a line drop out the Roosters lost the ball on Tackle 2 with 30 seconds left.

The other untold story of the week in the 'traditional media' is that it should clearly have been a penalty in front of the posts seeing as it was a Shoulder Charge that connected with the chin that caused the dropped ball by the Roosters. There was time for the video ref to intervene, but he lost the courage to act. Now whether video refs should be allowed to get involved in this situation is another debate, the point here is that if this had happened in the 13th minute of the game, there is no doubt the Roosters get a penalty in that situation, but with the situation of the game meaning a penalty would almost certainly give the Roosters the win, it was not awarded.

Then the Roosters won the ball from the scrum, which was again a criminal mental mistake by the Tigers and after some helter-skelter passing Anasta snapped the Field Goal to tie the game. In Golden Point there were many close misses before Kenny-Dowall got a great intercept and went the length of the field to keep the Roosters alive and send them into an enticing match up with Penrith this Saturday night.

Penrith lost their game on Saturday night for the very same reasons predicted here in the week one preview column. The cross field kick is nowhere near as effective in the Finals when teams are more switched on than it is during the regular season. This caught the Roosters out 2 years ago and it kind of ironic that the new look Roosters play a team that may fail for the same reasons that they themselves did back then. The Penrith vs Canberra game was just a good solid game of Rugby League, not overly exciting but sprinkled with enough good moments to keep you entertained. Campese looks like he is back to his best form and his ability to take on the line tormented the Panthers all night and with Monaghan defusing any cross field kicks on his side of the field Penrith slowly seemed to become more and more bereft of ideas as the game wore on. Canberra deserved their win and will provide a stern test for the West Tigers this week. The similarities between the 2010 Raiders and the 2009 Eels is striking, getting up in 9 out of 10 must win games entering the finals, playing an enterprising attacking brand of football, a superstar at the top of his game (Campese) a great bunch of Forwards paving the platform for the skill players to work off the back of as well as a confidence level that is building on a weekly basis. So what is the difference, well really there is only one, the media has decided that they are not as exciting as the Eels so you have to turn quite a few pages of the paper to find a story about them. I understand they are not a Sydney team and the Canberra Times probably gives them a good run, but seriously this team is the 2010 version of the Hayne led Eels, yet the Daily Telegraph spent most of the last 2 months of the season trying to tell us them same Eels were a chance to repeat their heroics from the previous season. Are they really that blinded by the story they want to write that they can't see the real story that's occurring right in front of them, sighs.

Manly v St George was as I predicted a boredom inducing snooze fest played in the middle third of the field. Also if St George wants to shake off a chokers tag I don't know if taking the 2 points through Penalty kicks rather than going for the Try to go from a 6-0 lead to 8 to 10 to 12 was really the sort of thing that screams to the rest of the competition "We Believe in Ourselves" Particularly as they were playing a Manly team decimated by injury. Now the number of try's they put on late when Manly knew time was against them and had clocked off made the scoreboard look good, but I can't imagine the 5 other teams left alive quaking in their boots after that performance.

So onto the Week 2 Picks.

Roosters (-5.5) over Panthers

Again the idiocy of the McIntyre system and the scheduling process is in full effect. Penrith has to go to Roosters home field, meaning the Roosters who finished 6th have played at their home stadium 2 weeks in a row in the Finals against the teams that finished 3rd and now 6th. The line itself seems strange to me, yes Penrith lost last week, but the score was close all the way and they did finish 4 places above the Roosters at the end of the season. Still I think the Tab has set a good line. If the line was more like 2.5 or 3.5 I would be much more confident picking the Roosters. Still I think they should cover, though it will be close. The major concern for the Bondi club is that they are quite short out wide, particularly with little Sam Perrit and the cross field kicks will trouble him. Still Brian Smith is a master tactician and I am sure he has some plans to deal with this issue, whether by moving Anasta one spot wider in situations where the cross-field kick to that side is an option or some other move that will provide support in the air for Sam.

Penrith actually match up quite well with the Roosters in most positions, Luke Lewis gives them the same flexibility by foot and with skillful ball playing that Anasta gives the Roosters. They have a big Front Row to take on Ryles and co and they have speed out wide. However, like Titans v Warriors last week, the Roosters have an advantage in the halves and that will prove crucial on Saturday night. Carney is in rare form right now and even with some media trouble makers trying to stir up a power war between Pearce and Carney during the week, asking Pearce if he sees himself as a 'sidekick' to Todd it is clear that Pearce and Carney are good mates and that rubbish will have no effect. Roosters to cover but the margin will be less than 13 points.

Tigers (+6.5) over Raiders

Now this line is insane. I think that Canberra might very well win this game, but to set the line higher than a converted Try is just madness. Just to recap, the Tigers were one Benji Marshall brain snap, or the successful execution of a Scrum feed away from being in a preliminary final. Now Benji is hurt, but there is no doubt he will play. Also has everyone forgotten that for 70 minutes last Saturday night the Tigers looked like the Premiers in waiting. This Tigers team is not like the team of the last 5 years, with Ellis setting the standard this forward pack is quite capable of getting involved in a knock down drag them out war of attrition. Then if it is a close game, Farah and Marshall are there to provide the piece of magic that leads to points. Again I am not necessarily tipping a Tigers win here, Canberra are a good side and with the McIntyre system awarding the 7th placed team a home final over the 3rd placed team they will have a fired up crowd cheering them home late on if it is tight.

Let me rant about the McIntyre atrocity, I mean system, one more time. The Tigers after finishing 3rd at the end of the regular season, if they were to lose this week would exit the finals without playing a home final, now i know last week was officially a home game for the Tigers but the facts are they played it at the Roosters home field and now they go to Canberra. Can't we at least agree that in Week 2 it is the team that finished the regular season higher on the ladder that hosts the final, not the week one winners. Seriously Canberra who scraped into the finals, then winning one game should not get to host the 3rd placed team just because the Tigers lost in week one. Why they won't just change to the AFL system is beyond me, for those who don't know how the AFL system works please do yourselves a favour and go and check it out, then please come back and explain to me just one way that the McIntyre system is better.

So the push for the perfect Finals tipping performance against the spread continues. I have to say these lines make it tough this week in the Roosters game but make it easy in the Tigers game, I was leaning towards tipping the Tigers anyway, but as soon as I saw they had a 6.5 start it became the easiest bet of the year. Come back next week to see eat those words.

Webber Monza Preview

2010-09-07T03:01:00.000-07:00

One down One to go for Webber and Red Bull.

Spa and Monza were never going to be Red Bull friendly tracks, the Red Bull Renault engine has many good quality's particularly its great pick up and drive out of the corners. Red Bull are the first to admit however it lacks outright grunt and top speed. This was best shown in Qualifying at Spa where Webber was burned by the McLaren of Lewis Hamilton through the long straights of Sector One, where even the legendary Eau Rouge is taken flat by all cars now, making it for the purposes of arguments about power, a straight. But in the twisty sector 2, where downforce and aero efficiency are the key, both Webber and Vettel were supreme, amazing Webber ended up on Pole after Saturday, which though it had elements of luck with the changeable conditions messing up qualifying for the top teams, was achieved on a dry track and slicks.

During the race, Webber got off to what is sadly becoming his customary terrible start and settled into 6th place at the hair-pin turn one, then outfought Sutil coming out Eau Rouge, with what is also becoming a Webber tradition, the incredible overtaking move that is completely ignored by the commentators. So he settled into 5th as the changeable conditions intervened. This led to the other great fear for Webber fans, Christian Horner having a say in the outcome of the race with strategy calls. I have many concerns about Horner as a manager of the egos within the Red Bull team and his obvious favoritism of Vettel is frustrating not just due to the fact it exists but with the complete lack of skill with which he has handled the whole situation. However, these concerns pale into insignificance compared to my finger nail biting angst that occurs whenever a race becomes a strategy battle and it becomes possible that Horner's decisions will directly affect the outcome of the race.

So in conclusion, Webber faced a triple threat at Spa, Firstly a track that does not suit the car, Secondly the terrible start, Thirdly, the stomach churning prospect of Horner vs Whitmarsh strategy battle. In the end as we know Webber came out of this with a stunning 2nd place finish. Better yet, Vettel showed his impetuousness yet again this season, took Button out and ruined his own race, meaning that he fell 28 points behind his teammate in the World Championship and took Button out as well. This means that the 5 way World Championship battle entering Spa, became in all reality thanks to Alonso's failure a 2 way race between Hamilton and Webber. Neither McLaren or Red Bull have acknowledged this as yet, and a reverse result at Monza opens it up again, but as long as Webber finishes within a place of his teammate for the next 2 races Red Bull will have little choice but to put their eggs in the Webber basket.

So now we head to Monza, again another Engine Power/Top Speed track, unfortunately their is not twisty bit at Monza, just long straights, chicanes and a couple of hairpins. This is particularly troubling as not only does this put the Renault powered Red Bulls behind McLaren but at the same time creates a situation where the Ferrari's and even the Force India's could leapfrog the Red Bull's as well helping Hamilton increase is championship lead by more than just the 7-12 points that a McLaren/Red Bull top 4 would cause. There is a real chance Webber could be scrapping for 6 or 7 points this weekend.

Mind you, I felt the same way heading to Spa and it ended up being the best weekend for the Webber World Championship charge so far this season, thanks to the youthful stupidity of his teammate. Now lets just hope that Horner and the Red Bull ownership think of the best chance to get a World Title and not try to somehow jeopardise his chances to get the young German back in the game and keep the Austrian parent company happy. And yes, this is a real fear.

NRL Finals Preview

2010-09-05T04:08:00.000-07:00

Let the hype begin, the NRL finals are here.

Sit back and wait for the advertising campaign from the NRL extolling the even nature of the competition and the fact any of the 8 teams can win on the first weekend in October. Obviously the NRL will not talk about the driving force behind the leveling of talent, namely that everyone has been dragged down to a sub-optimal level under the restrictions of the hideously low salary cap. If you are an NRL fan who happened to catch some of the Challenge Cup games from the UK Super League you could not help but feel frustrated. Just in the 2 or 3 games I have seen late on Sundays recently I saw Danny Buderus, Thomas Leului, Chris Flannery, Matt King and Pat Richards. If you think they are washed up veterans who wouldn't have made a difference to the teams in the finals, then you truly are under the Gallop spell.

The Finals Match Ups

St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles

What a waste of a Sunday Afternoon game, when the lack of dew and the dry ball usually see us treated to a full expression of the players skills we instead get a game between the most boring team in the competition, Manly, playing the grind it out experts in St George. Seriously is there one thing that excites you about this Manly team, Tony Williams has his moments, but that's where it ends, even their Jerseys are boring. Even though on paper it appears that this is the perfect match up for the Dragons as Manly's middle third only style plays into the St George defensive grinding style there remain potential problems for the Dragons. All this week the talk about choking will start for St George, whilst Manly is a team that contains players who have not only won finals games, they have won the big one. Still if Manly can't win a potential must win game vs the bottom feeding Bulldogs I can't see them beating St George.

Prediction St George

Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders

This game is a game that could either be a dominant Penrith win or yet another 7 v 2 upset. It all boils down to the kick, if it comes off for the Panthers then they should get home easily but if you live by the kicking game then more often than not in big games you die by it. In an average regular season game the kicking game can succeed because it often relies on a bit of laziness in positioning or lack of desperation from the defending team, this laziness can happen in Rd 15 when the players are more worried about where they are getting their Stilnox for the post game Kings Cross atrocity but in the finals when players have just spent the whole week being told that every play matters the kicking game seems to lack impact. For proof of this see the Sydney Roosters in 2008, who like this Penrith team entered the finals scoring most of their tries from kicks and went out in straight sets. The lesson is that in finals you need to be able to create try's through ball movement and precision line running. This does not augur well for the Panthers, particularly as the Raiders are a team with Campese at Five-Eighth that can create try's through good football.

Prediction Raiders

Wests Tigers vs Sydney Roosters

This is shaping up as not only the game of the first week of the finals but maybe the highlight of the whole Finals series. What a shame it will happen on Saturday night, this is a game made for Sunday Afternoon. Benji's flick passes and Carney bullet like 30 metre passes are made for dry weather football. Instead the pressure of finals and the dewy conditions will take some of the potential flair out of the contest. Still this should be a cracking game. The Tigers have toughened up in defense this year and Gareth Ellis continues to provide the type of go forward that Benji and Farah feed off. As for the Roosters Carney and Pearce will be the obvious storyline this week, but if are to win this week it will depend on the Centres and Back Rowers. Shaun Kenny-Dowall has a bad habit of crabbing sideways across the field, particularly if the Ref's are not enforcing a full 10 metres. The Roosters need SKD to run North-South not East-West. Also for all the talk about Carney's ball running skills he needs the threat of the pass to open up the running lanes for himself, often this threat is provided by the great running of Aubusson, who is the most reliable Rooster when it comes to hitting the line at pace and at good angles. This should be an entertaining game, no not necessarily a high-scoring one when you factor in the desperation of Finals. It truly is a coin-toss game, but the threat of upsets should make the Roosters just a tad more desperate and just see them get over the line. (6th placed losers drop out of the finals more often than not due to 7th or 8th placed teams causing an upset)

Prediction - Roosters

Gold Coast vs Warriors

How upset are Channel Nine that the vagaries of the McIntyre system ensured this was the Friday night game. On a scale of One to Ten I would put it at about a Seventy Three. Not only are there no Sydney teams involved, but they get the Gold Coast media market not the much larger Brisbane for the QLD TV ratings. Still this should be a great game. The Titans are a very professional football team, coached well by John Cartwright and have a true star at the most important position on the field in Scott Prince. The Warriors on the other hand rely much more on flair, but unlike in other years this Warriors team is prepared to be patient in the times of the game when they are not on top. In past years the Warriors when they were struggling would get off-load happy and try to force things to happen rather than putting their heads down and grinding it out for 10 minutes. Now they no longer do this and display a lot more professionalism and grit. Still Half-Back remains the most important position on the field and the Titans have the edge at that position so advantage Titans.

Prediction Titans

So all in all this should be an entertaining and closely matched weekend of finals, but don't confuse an even competition with a high quality one. The reason it so even is because every team has been dragged down to the level of the others not forced to raise their standards up to a high level. When you watch the Roosters think about how Chris Flannery could be helping them, when you watch Manly think of the benefit of an Orford, with the Tigers remember we lost Tuqiri's prime to the ARU. There are literally over a hundred other examples (183 players in either Rugby or the Super League at last count), remember this, get angry and dream of an Independent Commission and the end of the Gallop Era.

Webber screwed by Christian Horner

2010-07-30T05:31:00.001-07:00

Does Webber regret signing again with Red Bull??

This question, should by any measure be ridiculous. He is sitting second in the Championship 20 points clear of his teammate, with tracks that suit his car making up 5 of the remaining 6 races. After spending his peak years as a driver, struggling in sub-standard equipment Red Bull should be Nirvana for a driver in his Thirties, but many issues, not just Wing-Gate must give Mark pause for thought.

To understand why Webber would be frustrated it is important to look at his history. Like any driver from Australia, just getting into Formula 1 was a miracle, you could argue that if it wasn't for fellow Aussie Paul Stoddart buying Minardi at just the right time, Webber may never have gotten his initial break. With less talented pay drivers clogging up the back half of the grid, the struggling Minardi would never have taken Webber, regardless of his obvious talent, if it wasn't for Stoddart wanting to give a chance to a fellow Aussie, in fact, even being a fellow Aussie may not have been enough, the fact the Melbourne Grand Prix opened the season may also have been a factor, allowing Stoddart to own the media to start the season. Whatever motivated the Webber hiring, the fact is he got his chance and took it with both hands, then he had more luck when massive attrition at the Melbourne Grand Prix meant that he managed to score a lucky 5th in his vastly inferior machine, leading to the famous incident where race winner, Michael Schumacher, made his way down to the slum end of Pit Lane to congratulate the rookie for his remarkable drive, in a car that we later found out did not even have Power Steering (this seems ridiculous, I mean my first car a 1981 Ford Laser even had Power Steering, but it is true). Webber then went on to dominate his pay to play teammate and this led to an end of year move to the newly formed Jaguar Racing team. At this time it appeared that lady luck was smiling at the young Aussie, however, it was not long until she averted her gaze.

At Jaguar, Webber endured the troubles that existed for midfield teams in the crazy spending, no testing restriction F1 era and crushed teammate after teammate, until his talents were eventually noticed by F1 powerhouse Williams F1.

Williams had just come off a 4 year period where Montoya had driven brilliantly and been the only driver to consistently take the fight to the Ferrari powerhouse led by Ross Brawn and Michael Schumacher. At the time Webber had the choice to go to Renault and be Alonso's teammate but was advised by his Manager, coincidentally Renault Team Principal Flavio Briatore, to go to Williams where he would be the clear Number One and have the team built around him rather than be a clear Number 2 driver at Renault. At the time it seemed a great fit, the stoic down to earth Aussie seemed to fit the mold of Williams driver to a tee, but if he had looked closely, clouds were on the horizon.

The technical wizard of the glory years for Williams, Patrick Head had been promoted to a general engineering role at the start of 04, overseeing the whole factory. Day to day technical management had been passed to another Aussie, Sam Michael** meaning Webber would drive the first Sam Michael designed car in 05.

So Webber jumped in what appeared to be a dream seat as Williams became a nightmare of petty squabbling and political infighting. The first Sam Michael designed car was a lemon, the political infighting led to BMW leaving to form their own team after Webbers first year with the team. Williams were then forced to change Cosworth powerplants in year 2. The combination of Cosworth power and Sam Michaels conservative design style meant that Williams with all their finances and tradition, slipped into midfield mediocrity and saw Webber suffer the ultimate frustration of being in the rear view mirror of his old Jaguar. Even the best result of his Williams years could not be enjoyed, when at Monaco he got his first podium, but a strategy call that clearly favoured his teammate who was running behind him at the time saw their positions reversed after the stop, Heidfeld got 2nd as Webber finished 3rd, you could see Webber seething on the podium in what should have been a moment of joy.

When Red Bull took over the Jaguar F1 team, Webber returned to his old team and had a solid first season, but with the most innovative Technical Mind in F1, Adrian Newey, along for the first year, and designing his first car for year 2 you could see that better days were ahead.

When the Newey designed Red Bull lit up the timing screens in pre-season testing for 2009 all Webber fans could dare to dream. There was only one possible cloud on this horizon.

Red Bull is an Austrian team and they had just promoted young German Hot Shot Sebastian Vettel to sit alongside Webber in the sister car. For the first time Webber fans had actual concerns that maybe for once Webber might not wipe the floor with his teammate. As Button dominated the early races with the dodgy diffuser, Webber and Vettel were having an amazing even battle, Vettel qualifying better, but Webber outracing his young teammate in many races, but Vettel got the first victory for the team at China.

Silverstone seemed like it would be the occasion where Webber would get his maiden Grand Prix win. The Aussie dominated all the practice sessions and it looked like he would be a popular winner come Sunday if he carried his form into qualifying. Unfortunately the bad luck that had come to define Webber at this stage of his career struck at the worst possible time as Raikonnen blocked Webber on his final flying Qualifying lap, relegating him to second spot on the grid behind his teammate and that is how the race ended also.

The first win would have to wait until the German GP, ironic considering this was his teammates home race, even this could not be done easy for Webber, where he was given a drive through penalty after his team released him into the path of Barrichello in the Pit Lane. Webber drove brilliantly however and managed ot serve his drive through and still come out at the front of the field and drive to a stunning victory. He would have to wait until Brazil in the final race of the season for his second victory and with his teammate winning 4 races it appeared Webber was truly being challenged for the first time.

The unfortunate part is that the challenge is not a fair one.

It is clear now that Red Bull favors Vettel over Webber. 2010 has seen many examples of this. The most obvious of these has not been Winggate, the most obvious example has been the qualifying tactics of the Red Bull team. Any dedicated F1 fan knows that every extra lap done on the circuit in qualifying helps make the track a little quicker as more rubber is laid down on the racing line. It is rare indeed that Webber is given the privilege of being the 2nd Red Bull out for the last qualifying run. This favors Vettel and has been a source of frustration for Webber fans all year, but Wing-Gate bought it all to the surface.

With only 2 of the new wings available for the Silverstone Grand Prix, Vettel broke one his in practice, through no fault of his own admittedly it just fell off, but what followed was astounding. The two Red Bulls were over a second clear of the rest of the field and it was clear that qualifying would be a straight up fight between the two teammates. Amazingly Christian Horner then took the new wing off Marks car and handed it to his teammate before qualifying, giving him a clear advantage. That this happend just a few weeks after Horner had defended Sebastian and blamed Mark for an incident where all observers saw Vettel was to blame in an incident where Vettel tried a risky Overtaking move that took both Red Bulls off the track in Turkey, costing Mark a win and handing a 1-2 finish to McLaren only made the move seem all the more sinister.

In the incident in Turkey, Mark was leading the Grand Prix with Vettel behind him at the half way mark of the GP. The team told Mark that he would have to turn the power down on his engine to ensure he could reach the end of the race with enough fuel. Amazingly they did not give Vettel this same advice, even though the cars were identical, this allowed Vettel to run quicker than Mark up the straight, where he tried a crazy move down the inside into a gap that was not there and smash into his teammate, careening them both of the circuit, karma had its say as it put Vettel out the race, but it still relagated Mark to 3rd. The commentators at the time and everyone at home could see this was poor driving by Vettel, but when we woke the next day we saw headlines where Horner blamed Mark for not giving his teammate enough room. So you had dodgy communications designed to favour the German, then even the Red Bull PR team took one teammates side over the other.

Marks frustration must have been boiling at this time, for in this environment for the team to clearly take Sebastian's side in what was really a 2 car race at Silverstone was just stunning. Thankfully Webber used the frustration to his advantage lauching a great move off the start, passing his teammate at the first corner (cleanly) and running away to a satisfying victory.

TO BE CONTINUED

The Hawthorn Confusion

2010-07-27T06:56:00.000-07:00

Are the 2008 Hawks back?

This is the question that has moved from the back of the brain to the tip of the lips of the Football public over the last few weeks. There are many good reasons for optimism, however if you look closely big concerns remain evident.

The major concern is an inability to close the deal, yes its an obvious flaw after 2 close losses to Geelong and now the agonizing 'interchange infringement' draw with the Saints. What is concerning though is that too many people are happy to make excuses for the Hawks and praise them for their guts, and extol their virtues for getting so close, but all this conveniently forgets that this team won the Premiership just 40 games ago.

Nor should we forget that this was no end of an era premiership, Hawthorn had the youngest list in the competition on that magical September afternoon. Croad and Crawford are the only losses from the Premiership 22, and with Rioli, Franklin, Roughhead, Mitchell, Hodge, Sewell and Lewis all with their best football in front of them it so much looked like the eighties were coming back for Hawthorn fans you nearly expected the team to run out with permed mullets.

Now just 18 months later the media, plus more worryingly the coach are seeing the 'positives' in close losses, giving them credit for gutsy efforts the same way I talk about my nephews under 12's football team. So what happened?

Firstly, although I may have brushed over it before, the loss of Croad was bigger than any of us could reasonably have foreseen, the big weakness in that Hawthorn team was lack of depth in the tall defenders, and not just depth but quality. Losing Croad robbed us of both, with no-one there to take his place and the other injuries we sustained in 2009 last years letdown was understandable, though not acceptable. Now though the concerns in defense have been somewhat solved with the fantastic late round pick Stratton giving us a quality defender who uses the ball well while neutralizing an opposition key forward. With the ever dependable Gilham alongside him the Hawks now have 2 tall defenders who might not be dominant in the Lake/Scarlett mold but are genuine AFL standard players in a key position for any premiership contender. To go alongside these two, we have the underrated Clinton Young and his amazing foot skills and the ever dependable Guerra filling the rebounding role admirably.

Secondly, the midfield is back to its 2008 best, in many ways even better. In 2008 Rioli was a rookie who gave us moments of inspiration but could not run 4 quarters through the midfield, now he is a genuine blue chip talent with the ability to dominate games in full, rather than have moments of impact. Hodge is a true superstar, in many observers opinion, including my own, he is the best player in the competition. Ablett and Judd are great at stoppages and providing burst on the edges, but Hodge not only matches them on the edges with his precise and penetrating disposal by foot providing the same impact as the bursting runs of Judd/Ablett, it may not look as spectacular but is just as effective. Where Hodge surpasses them both however is with his work inside. Mitchell continues to be the Greg Williams of his era and the recent reminder to Sewell that he is a hard working blue collar midfielder seems to have got him back to his roots and is producing his best football again. Hodge and Rioli remain the key, my friend Matty recently said how happy he is that for the first time since Darren Jarman his favourite player to watch is a Hawk, and many people agree with the sentiment. Hodge and Rioli give the Hawks a potentially dominating tandem in the midfield, both players who can dominate stoppages or open play. All this without mentioning the silk of Burgoyne, the toughness of Lewis or the pleasant surprise that is the ruckwork of Wade Skipper to finally have someone to help Renouf. Tell me again why people praise close losses for this team, that should be a midfield that backs itself to not just compete but potentially dominate any midfield in the competition, then when they get it into the forward 50 we have what should be the Hawks trump card.

The one-two punch of Roughhead/Franklin.

Buddy is a player of freakish ability who is playing well if not back to his dominant 2008 form. However Buddy has won games for the Hawks this year and terrifies opposition match committees like no other current day footballer. Also, he has the trouble of having to beat his opponent and the umpires every week, the most frustrating thing for him and the fans is the way he is crucified by the Umpires, is it racism that he gets so hard done by, whilst the blond haired blue eyed Riewoldt gets decisions Buddy can only dream of. Roughie is the issue, every time he gets the ball 30 metres out, you basically chalk down the behind before he even staggers in nervously to poke the ball wide. Yes he gives a contest and he is probably a better overhead mark than Franklin, but it appears that he is just missing, I dunno, something. That's the frustration with Roughhead, its so hard to put into words what the issue is, but is clear to anyone that he is not playing to anywhere near his potential. Saying that though, the fact remains he is an asset and alongside Franklin provides the Hawks the two pronged attack that is the envy of the competition.

Which is what makes the last 4 weeks so frustrating. I will admit going into this stretch of games I would have been content with a 2 and 2 record, so I should be happy with 2-1-1 but after beating the Bulldogs, and getting so close against Geelong, 4-0 feels like it should be recorded history, come finals time, close enough is never good enough, add to that the frustration that other results went our way and that closing the deal in those games means we had a realistic shot at a top 4 berth then the acceptance of the losses frustrates fans even more.

Many of this team were around for the infamous 'line in the sand game', a game which we lost. Now it is time for another line in the sand to be drawn, yet this line needs to be drawn not in a center square brawl, but instead on the scoreboard, the process is important, but from now on, for these Hawks, the result is all that matters.

New NFL Season

2009-09-06T03:37:00.000-07:00

So the New National Football League season is upon us.

And at last we are getting multiple games a week on Free To Air TV on Channel One, which when your building does not allow cable is a fantastic development, plus we get a couple of College Games a week as well, although from what I gather ESPN gets all the really good College Games and a lot of the others can be blow outs or not affect the BCS so they may not be too exciting.

The big thing is now, will One screw us, as they have done with the Baseball and show the game Live whilst we are at work and the replay it at 3am, which is a fantastic time when you have to work the next day, which by the way is the exact reason we missed it when it was live in the first place... Well Done One, and the programming genius who made that boneheaded decision.

However with the amount of Promo's for the NFL that I have seen it appears that they should be a bit kinder and they are certainly replaying Titans-Steelers at 6pm which is a good start.

Thankfully the season falls in our summer too so there is not going to be too many other sports filling the schedule to push NFL replays to the wee hours so the first signs are encouraging.

Big year for my team the 'Skins, a winning season and we can avoid our moron of an owner (yes fellow skins fans, we can see he is a moron from 14000 miles away too, you don't need to be in DC to see Snyders an idiot) but yes a winning season should help us avoid another QB and Coach swap come the end of the year and hopefully start to build some consistency into the organisation, from what i am reading, AND I READ A LOT ABOUT THIS STUFF, training camp has not exactly set the local media in DC to be planning their SUperbowl Trips but just a solid playoff run would be nice after the terrible fade out last year as our O-Line started to resemble a bunch of Turnstile Operators on the Metro just waving opposing Ends and Tackles through to have their way with Campbell, whose QB play obviously suffered as he spent all his time dodging 300lb human missiles coming at him from all angles (how painful was that Steelers game to watch for anyone with love for the 'skins)

So in a nutshell very tough to see it happening but fingers crossed for a winning season, if only an owner was like a head coach and could be fired, then I would be hoping for a losing season so we could see the back of Snyder. It'll never happen but it would be great if AMerican Sports could go with the Australian Model where the teams are owned by the fans, where you are a MEMBER not a SEASON TICKET HOLDER and where as a member you get a chance to vote out Woeful Presidents at the end of their term (would love to throw in aCOllingwood crack here, but Eddie is doing quite a good job). Still it wont happen so we are stuck with Snyder for now, I was really hoping the GFC would wipe him out and force him to sell, but alas, that did not come to pass.

Its almost worth wishing for a double dip recession if we could be assured it would bankrupt Snyder, I am sure many skins fans would give up their employment for 6 months to not have to endure another god knows how many seasons of Snyderball in DC.

THURSDAY, the guessing ends, but unfortunately for us who love the Redskins, by the end of the weekend the dreams may end with them. 5 - 11 anyone???

4th Quarter Diary, Hawthorn vs Geelong

2009-07-24T23:24:00.000-07:00

15:18 GEELONG GOAL

No NO NO NO NO... That is lazy by the Hawthorn Defence, DONT YOU DARE DO THIS TOO ME HAWTHORN

14:59 GEELONG GOAL

NO NO NO NO NO NO..... YOu just cannot give the cats a sniff, bit of mucking around in defence Geelong kick 2 in a row then centre clearance and its three, this is dangerous, in the ensuing commentary Kel bravely agrees with TIm again, serisouly Kel just once tell us what you think Just so I can see if Tim is too PC to disagree with you, c'mon just give it a try, wait for TIm to say something, then disagree and see how quickly Tim decides he was in fact wrong..

12:46

WHat the hell was that Ellis, yeah instead of having a shot from 50 do a 7 metre pass to Lewis when hes under pressure, u have been in the system long enough now Ellis ur not a young up and comer take some responsibility.

11:14

Great work Buddy, OH MY GOD WHAT THE HELL WAS THAT ROUGHHEAD, Roughhead drops an absolute sitter 20 metres out, mind you the way he has kicked today may have only cost us a point. Hawthorn lead by 11 after being 28 up after we kicked the first goal of the last quarter.

8:49 GEELONG GOAL

After buddy snaps and kicks a point Geelong come back the length of the field and kick a goal, this is ridiculous seriously.

7:52

Varcoe doesnt make the distance from 20 metres out slight angle THANK GOD!!!!

6:48

Buddy attacked 23 minutes after taking a mark, but of course its Buddy so no 50 metre penalty, attack from the wing and Kennedy has a shot for a point, which dissapoints Kelly immensly as she was about to prove her footy credentials by letting loose with her ...'if you dont mind' catchphrase that she stole off every single AFL commetator from the 1970's

FIVE MINUTE WARNING

all time checks will now be changed to 23:39 etc etc because Channel 10 continue with this pointelss gimmick
24:31 GEELONG GOAL

Rooke places his hand smack in the middle of the Hawthorn players back, pushes then plays on and kicks the goal, no free kick, Hawks by a point...

26:56

Hawthorn manage to turn a 2 on 1 on centre wing into a boundary thrwo in and now a Geelong Free kick because Ellis lacks composure and the umpire has the courage to pay a free kcik on centre wing after lacking the courage 80 seconds earlier

28:21

Bartell POINT ALL SQUARE

28:50

Kennedy I now hate you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WHY OH WHY OH WHY when you are wide open would you handball to Buddy with 3 men on him rather than shoot from 40 metres, Buddy tackled ball swings to the other end

SIREN SOUNDS BARTELL NEEDS A POINT TO WIN THIS IS RIDICULOUS

HE KICKS THE POINT NOW ROUGHHEADS DROPPED MARK AT 11:14 DOES MATTER

Season over

This is absolutely gutting, not only the loss but sitting through 2 hours of CHannel 10 commentary and getting nothing out of it, I dont just mean Kel, I mean Andy (how much saliva can I create in my mouth while I speak) Maher. Macolm (did I remember to drop acid before coming on air) BLight and Tim (I wont sign a contract with a media company unless my daughter gets a job there too) Lane

Mind you I speak too soon, very uncomfortable moment when tim cant help himself and refers to Gender in the post game, (kel calling the shot, female goal umpire signalling) Blighty cant help himself puts in his two cents and very very uncomfortable chuckle from Kel, they all know its a gimmick, we all know its a gimmick., but I suppose it is Channel 10 the channel that employs all them idiots to present sports tonight, I mean seriously since Ryan Phelan has Sports TOnight had one single presenter who even approaches an average level of media performance

Cameron Ling I hate you, why are you allowed on TV

THis is gutting, flicking to Triple M commentary on the net cant handle this any more

Watching the Hawks

2009-07-24T22:27:00.000-07:00

Half Time

Well Buddys BACK!!!!!

There are so few things more enjoyable than watching Geelong get beaten, well maybe watching St Kilda lose, what with all their Blonde Locked Nancy Boys but beating Geelong is right up there [wheres ur Salad Roll now Bomber haha] Lets hope to god that Matthews (Hawthorn Legend) was right linking Geelong with 2001 Essendon during the week.....

Even though most of his "Look at me Look at Me, I'm the star" decisions have been in Hawthorns favour today If Ray Chamberlain ever gets to Umpire a Grand Final it will prove my theory that Andrew Demetriou is on a one man mission to prove that the AFL is so domiant in the media and the culture that it does not matter how many complete stuff ups the commisioner makes it will endure as the number 1 sport in the country, seriously any claims he makes to being good at his job based on TV ratings and Attendance Figures is sort of like the Mahmoud Achmedinijad trying to say he is doing a good job as LEader of Iran because of all those 'votes' that he got in the last election.

Third Quarter

Worring signs for the Hawks but a good sign for viewers as it appears that Kelly has been relegated to 20 second bursts of commentary and they are letting Tim do most of the play by play stuff this quarter, PLEASE OH PLEASE LET CHANEL NINE GET THE RIGHTS NEXT TIME, as there ever been a bigger gimmick that the female play by play commentator, realistically only one question needs to be asked, were her skills and background so overwhelming that if she were a man she would have got the job, well of course not, so therefore it is more sexist to give her the gig than it was to stick her down as a boundary rider.
Seriously it is Round 17 now and she is yet to feel the need to disagree with her fellow commentators once, GREAT INPUT KELLY