Human Rights Watch released a report on Tuesday titled “No Safe Places,” that addresses Yemen’s crackdown on protests in Taizz and provides constructive recommendations for various publics. The report chronicles many cases of attacks on protestors, civilian deaths, and denial of medical care. The recommendations are broken down by actor, and target the Yemeni government, opposition forces, U.N. Security Council, Gulf Cooperation Council, European Union, Human Rights Council, and countries that provide security assistance to Yemen including the U.S. Additionally, the report” called on the United States, the European Union, and Persian Gulf states to publicly acknowledge that the domestic immunity granted Saleh and his aides last month has no legal effect outside Yemen.” No Safe Places is based on more than 170 interviews with protesters, doctors, human rights defenders, and other witnesses to attacks in Taizz by state security forces and pro-Saleh gangs from February to December 2011.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called for an international coalition to be formed in order to stop Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s deadly crackdown from escalating any further. Davutoglu stressed that “clear and decisive statements” needed to be delivered to the Syrian regime from the broader international community. Davutoglu is scheduled to meet with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington to discuss alternative measures.

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with officials in Damascus to discuss possible reforms and an end to violence “on all sides.” Russia continued to push diplomacy and insisted that the solution in Syria should come from the Syrian people and not from the international community. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that outside forces should let the Syrians settle their conflict “independently” and was quoted as saying “We should not act like a bull in a china shop.”

The U.S., which closed its embassy in Damascus Monday, suggested that it was contemplating ways in which it could provide humanitarian support to the Syrian people, who are living in dire straights with little or no access basic necessities. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said that while the U.S. has not taken “anything off the table,” “more arms into Syria” doesn’t appear to be the answer. An E.U. official, speaking under a condition of anonymity, said that E.U. governments are shifting toward stiffer sanctions banning the import of phosphates. Syria sells 40% of its phosphate production to European clients, the official said.

Meanwhile, the Syrian army continued its assault on the city of Homs for a fifth straight day. At least 43 deaths were reported in Homs on Wednesday.

In its 10th annual press freedom index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) assessed the evolution of press and media freedom after one year of turmoil in the Arab world. RWB noted “The transitions that have begun are not necessarily leading towards more pluralism and most of the changes in the rankings have been downward ones.”

Tunisia, which has launched the Arab Spring in December 2010, rose 30 places in the RWB  index, from 164th to 134th ”because of the end of the harassment of journalists by the Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali regime, the emergence of real pluralism of opinion in the print media and, albeit possibly only for the time being, the end of massive and systematic Internet filtering.” However, the report held that the positive change are fragile. RWB criticized the recent appointment by the Tunisian Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali of people to run the state owned media and considered it as as a threat for media independence. RWB also campaigned against censorship on the internet.

Libya also rose in the index from 160th to 154th. RWB described an explosion in the number of media outlets and “pluralist enthusiasm.” However, the organization pointed out that “Libya’s ranking reflects the many abuses against journalists during the civil war.” Libya has a chance to see its rank to evolve if the democratic process and “media pluralism and independence take a lasting hold.”

The index revealed mostly a drop in the majority of Arab countries during the 2011 uprising “because of the measures taken in a bid to impose a news blackout” in crackdowns.  Egypt plummeted from 127th  to 166th. It is first the consequence “of the attempts by[former Egyptian President] Hosni Mubarak’s government and then the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) to rein in the revolution’s successive phases.” Yemen fell one place, from 170th to 171st, as “the situation was already very worrying and Yemen had already fallen 16 places since 2008.”  Like Yemen,  Saudi Arabia lost only one place, from 157th to 158th, the country “is very low in the index because of the lack of pluralism and high level of self-censorship.” The United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) fall from 87th to 112th, “because of its Internet filtering policy and the imprisonment of Ahmed Mansoor, a blogger who administers the online pro-democracy forum Al-Hewar.” Morocco dropped from 135th to 138th . Meanwhile, Algeria rose from 133th to 122th mainly “because of a fall in the number of trials of journalists. ”

Bahrain and Syria are at the bottom of the index, they are respectively at the 173th and the 176th on an index assessing 179 states. The Kingdom of Bahrain plunged 29 places as the authorities  implemented “an entire arsenal of measures” (and continue doing so) against media: Bahraini and foreign journalists were hounded, a deluge of pro-government propaganda has been released, are among a few of the continued violations. Syria already poorly ranked, continued its drop “because total censorship, widespread surveillance, indiscriminate violence and government manipulation made it impossible for journalists to work.”

Bahrain has denied visas for multiple journalists who requested to be in the country for the February 14 anniversary of the uprisings. Denied media outlets include the New York Times, BBC, Wall Street Journal, Christian Science Monitor, and Al Jazeera. Several of the correspondents were vocal on Twitter about their rejected applications. All those refused entry said the visas were denied due to an “unusually high volume of requests,” and they were invited back at the end of February, once the BICI recommendations were fully implemented. Brian Dooley of Human Rights First, one of those denied entry, said “this is the hallmark of a repressive regime — not allowing journalists into the country.” President of the Information Affairs Authority (I.A.A.) His Excellency Sheikh Fawaz bin Mohammed Al-Khalifa released a statement clarifying the visa denials, saying that “media that did not specify exact dates with their requests, or those who were late in applying, were asked to delay their visit, in order to insure their safety and chances of securing interviews with key figures.” The full press release can be found here.

Meanwhile, two activists, Naser al-Raas and Fadhila al-Mubarak have been released from jail. Al-Raas, a Canadian citizen, “was facing a five-year prison sentence after being convicted in October 2011 of illegal assembly, rioting and incitement in the Arab Spring protests,” but was released after a plea from his lawyer. Al-Mubarak “was jailed for listening to a revolutionary song in her car has been released and given a hero’s welcome by a 10,000-strong opposition rally.” Additionally, the prisoner hunger strike has come to an end after eight consecutive days. Mohammed al-Maskati, head of the Bahrain Youth Society for Human Rights (BYSHR), said “the inmates’ families only discovered that the strike had been called off on Tuesday, when prisoners were allowed to phone their relatives.”

The Editorial Board at the Washington Post recently published an opinion piece titled “U.S. Must Bring Pressure to Bear on Bahrain,” which sheds light on President Barack Obama‘s inconsistent policies in the Middle East. Obama condemned the atrocities being committed in Syria by saying, “we stand for principles that include universal rights for all people and just political and economic reform.” The opinion piece argues that in order for that stance to be effective and ring true, it must be applied consistently – which is why the policy in Bahrain has been “disturbing.” The international community has described the Russia and China veto of the U.N. Security Council resolution as giving the Syrian regime a “license to kill.” Although the Obama administration did not go through with the $53 million arms sale to Bahrain, it is still continuing to push through a smaller sale of under $1 million. “U.S. criticism of Russia for continuing to arm the [Syrian] regime will sound more credible when American military aid to Arab allies engaged in repression comes to a complete and unambiguous halt,” wrote the Board.

On Monday, Human Rights First released the report Bahrain: The Gathering Storm, detailing the deterioration situation in Bahrain. With the escalating attacks against civilians, continued reports of torture in custody, and Bahrain government denying entry for human rights observers, the report anticipates further unrest. February 14 marks the year anniversary of protests in Bahrain, and Brian Dooley, the author of the report, predicted the day to be filled with ”large rallies expected to be mounted by the opposition in the days leading up to it. Shut out of the airwaves and most print media in Bahrain, those calling for reform have few options to make their dissent known to the regime other than to take part in marches and rallies.” Dooley is one of the individuals being denied access to Bahrain for the anniversary and being told to reapply later.

The report stated there is “little evidence” the Bahrain authorities have implemented many of the recommendations from the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry (BICI). Human rights violations continue on a daily basis, while civilians are being inappropriately charged in military courts. By failing to incorporate substantial reforms from the BICI, and the human rights abuses of last year, Bahrain has been downgraded in multiple international rankings.  To list a few rankings, Freedom House’s Freedom in the World 2012 - an annual survey of political right and civil liberties – Bahrain’s rating for civil liberties dropped from 5 to 6, while Bahrain fell 29 places in Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index from 173 of 179.

There were several recommendations listed, both for the U.S. and Bahrain governments. Human Rights First is calling on U.S. senior government officials to take a more public role condemning abuses perpetrated by the Bahrain government, and announce that future developments will be closely monitored, including the February anniversary. The future U.S. Bahrain relationship would therefore hinge on Bahrain respecting international human rights standards.

Human Rights First also recommended that the Bahrain authorities release civilians convicted in military courts, drop politically-motivated charges, and end torture. Bahrain should allow independent human rights organizations, observers and journalist unfettered access, while implement the remaining BICI recommendations. “It’s time for the U.S. government and other nations to make clear that such abuses and secrecy will not be tolerated,” said Dooley.

Twenty-one members of Congress co-signed a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to “express our opposition to the Adminstration’s decision to move forward with the sale of a limited number of military items and services to Bahrain.” The members “believe that any such  sale at this time sends the wrong signal to Bahrain and the world about America’s commitment to the promotion and protection of  human rights.”

The letter pointed out that “Bahraini government has taken some positive steps with respect to human rights in recent months. However, it has not done enough to justify the sale of any military items,” moreover the letter added that “a brief survey of reports from reliable sources makes clear that Bahraini government continues to perpetrate significant human rights violations.”

Additionally, the letter emphases that the Congressmen” are deeply concerned that the Government of Bahrain is trying to shield itself from scrutiny,” and recalled that “in the last three weeks alone, Bahrain has denied entry to prominent independent human rights monitors, including Brian Dooley of Human Rights First and Richard Sollom of Physicians for Human Rights.” The Members of Congress concluded that they will not change their position “until there is more substantive permanent progress on human rights.”

The letter was signed by Senators Ron Wyden (D-OR), Barbara Boxer (D-CA), Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Reps. Keith Ellison (D-MN),   Lynn Woolsey (D-CA), Michael Honda (D-CA), James McGovern (D-MA), Jim Moran (D-VA), Rush D.Holt (D-NJ), Jesse L. Jackson Jr. (D-IL), Jim McDermott (D – WA), John W. Olver (D-MA), Pete Stark (D-CA), Maxine Waters (D-CA), Janice D. Schakowsky (D-IL) , James P. Moran (D-NV), Barbara Lee (D-CA),  Janice Hahn (D-CA), Bob Filner (D-CA), Peter A. DeFazio (D-OR), John Conyers Jr. (D-MI).

The full text of the letter is after the break below, and available in PDF.

In a report released in mid-December, 2011, the International Crisis Group analyzes the “significant problem” posed by militias in Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. The report recommends that Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC) work with local authorities and militias “to agree on operational standards” without imposing a top-down disarmament and demobilization. The NTC was the face of the Libyan uprising but it could not adequately support armed groups in western Libya, which went on to form militias that “assumed security and civilian responsibility under the authority of local military councils” after Gaddafi was overthrown. The result was a series of militia-controlled “fiefdoms” based on geography rather than ethnic or tribal affiliations.

The ICG report argues that bringing these militias under control is necessary for building a stable Libya, but will be extremely difficult. Militias are becoming increasingly entrenched, with the benefit of local knowledge, organization, and “revolutionary legitimacy.” The key to resolving the crisis is building trust and certainty “regarding who has the legitimacy to lead during the transition.” A more legitimate governing body must be formed through elections, due to be held in June. In the meantime, ICG recommends “developing and enforcing clear standards to prevent abuses of detainees or discrimination against entire communities,” and limiting “possession, display or use especially of heavy weapons and inter-militia clashes.” The NTC should take longer-term steps to demobilize militias and integrate them into national police and military forces, but “also [provide] economic opportunities for former fighters.” The full report can be found here.

American political scientist Jay Ulfelder challenged the so-called “cardinal principle of empirical democratic theory” alleged by democratization scholar Larry Diamond. Diamond proposed that “hard economic times” translate to “hard times for democracy.” Ulfelder’s recent study concluded that this might not be the case necessarily.

Ulfelder used the findings of his study to dispel complaints from senior officials in Egypt, warning that cutting U.S. aid to Egypt at this time would “transform a peaceful revolution into a hunger revolution.” Ulfelder, using a data set specifically targeted at 103 transitions to democracy from 1955-2008, constructed a model that compared the conditions from each transition and measured the odds that the ensuing regimes survived for “at least 5 years.”

Ulfelder found that a new democracy is more likely to survive under positive economic conditions, but not at any level of significance. Large swings in GDP growth, which in real-world situations are unlikely, only produced marginal differences in “estimated likelihood of survival.” The economic conditions did not have a “make or break impact” on the survival of democracy. However what does have an impact, found Ulfelder, is the level of economic development and the “occurrence of acute political polarization.”

Applying the model to Tunisia, Egypt, Libya who “arguably” met the conditions required to meet Ulfelder’s definition of “democratic transitions” and noting that Tunisia is not “acutely polarized,” Ulfelder found the following results for the transitions in North Africa:

Tunisia: 82%                                 Egypt: 48%                              Libya: 89%

For full event notes, continue reading below. Or, click here for the PDF

Fenning began his talk by citing the emerging geopolitical struggle, making comparisons reminiscent of a cold war stand off, and stated that as the geopolitical context evolves, it is important to consider the internal dynamics and “domestic changes” occurring in geopolitical powerhouses, namely Russia, China, and Iran.

He continued saying the extreme sanctions Iran faces have increased tensions to an unprecedented level making the entire region very unstable. This instability would exist not even taking into consideration the political upheaval and transition occurring across the region.  Fenning affirmed that Iran understands it does not have the manpower to actually close the Straight of Hormuz, as it has threatened. Furthermore, such a move would “not be tolerated” by the West, and more importantly would not be tolerated by China, Iran’s largest oil importer. “China has very little to gain from Iran,” said Fenning. China reportedly has already met with other Arab regional players to diversify its supply in case of a hike in the oil price. The situation across the board was described as a situation with “rising tensions without a way forward.”

The emerging standoff pits the U.S., Arab states, and the E.U. against Russia, China, and Iran and they have chosen Syria as their battlefield. Opposing opinions of the desired result in Syria have polarized the positions of those involved. Today, a Russian convoy visited Damascus, with a message Fenning believes of an offer to handover power. Rising sectarian tensions have threatened to spill over to neighboring states (Iraq, Lebanon) and have made investors apprehensive.

Fenning transitioned to discussing prospects for business in Libya, Iraq, and Egypt. Fenning had a cautious, but optimistic outlook for Libya’s economic prospects. He called Libya “extraordinarily rich,” noting that Libya has three percent of the world’s oil reserves, a strategic location on the Mediterranean in proximity to Europe, and relatively small population of 5 million people. Fenning said that Libya has the potential to become the “Norway of North Africa”; a country rich in hydrocarbon resources produced using solar energy.

Fenning compared Libya with oil-rich Iraq, a country with enormous potential recently facing a difficult political transition. Iraq is having difficulty dealing with “the inevitable spike in violence,” which appeared following the withdrawal of U.S. forces. Fenning said that Iraq’s geostrategic position unfortunately places it in a “difficult neighborhood,” straddling the fault line of Shia-Sunni tensions. Companies investing in Iraq understand the situation and are “thick-skinned” enough to temper the violence, which Fenning described as “bringing the country to its knees.” Fenning commented on the recent behavior of Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, saying that the regime is falling victim to its autocratic past and moving towards strong central governance.

Additionally, Fenning discussed Egypt’s political transition, calling it “vexed.” Fenning could not make sense of Egypt’s “unfortunate” decision to “pick a fight with the U.S.” with its recent crackdown on American and Egyptian NGOs and stated that the move is having disastrous implications on their foreign direct investment. Egypt already faces a disastrous economic situation with the collapse of its tourism industry, rapid inflation, and debt issues.

According to Fenning, the question that remains to be answered is whether the Arab Spring events have opened the respective countries’ economies. The region traditionally has been plagued with centralized family/minority rule that controlled most of the countries’ economies. The age old transaction, said Fenning, has been “we buy our oil, you buy our arms” has “gone on far too long.” The wave of revolutions can “open the possibility” that the MENA countries can “offer more.”

Although stability is “no longer on the menu,” companies that once found it difficult to find space or authority to operate under autocratic constraints may now have the opportunity to find their niche in the transitioning governments.  Fenning foresaw corruption as a problem that could potentially plague emerging governments navigating their way through unchartered territories. Fenning added that these governments would benefit from an “unprecedented” level of anti-corruption sentiment manifested by a majority of governments in a post-financial crisis world.

Fenning briefly discussed the troubles of gulf countries Bahrain and Yemen. He believes that Bahrain wants to reform, but has neighboring Saudi Arabia “breathing down its neck” because of strong Shia ties in Bahrain to those in Saudi’s own eastern province. He foreshadowed that Yemen will continue to struggle and continue to be the focus of U.S. military attention as long as it continues to be a hotbed of Al-Qaeda activity. Fenning ended the discussion saying that he believes that “a retreat from democracy” is “untenable” for any of the Arab Spring nations and believes that democracy is necessary to harness the enormous economic potential of the MENA region. 

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has made statements about working toward an end to the violence in Syria after visit to Damascus, saying “President Bashar al-Assad is committed to ending all violence in his country.” Despite Russia’s veto of the U.N. resolution, now Lavrov “has called for a solution to the crisis in Syria based on the plan put forward by the Arab League,” and said Damascus is ready for a larger Arab League mission to enter the city. A spokesperson for the Syrian National Council, George Sabra, showed the Council’s support for Russia’s meeting with Assad, saying “The Syrian opposition needs all the help there is. Considering the good relations between the Russian and Syrian nations, Russia has a good chance of playing this part.” As the situation continues to deteriorate, countries continued to cut off diplomatic ties. After the U.S. embassy closed down in Damascus, France and Italy recalled their ambassadors. Additionally, the Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) released a statement that said, “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, current head of the council, announces that the G.C.C. states have decided to withdraw all their ambassadors from Syria and also demand that all ambassadors of the Syrian regime in its lands leave immediately.”

Meanwhile, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan announced plans for a new initiative that would involved countries that in support of the Syrian opposition. ”We are going to start a new initiative with those countries that stand by the people, not the Syrian government. We are preparing this,” Erdogan said. The announcement follows the frustration that was expressed regarding Russia and China’s veto, which Erdogan commented about, saying “The process that occurred at the United Nations in relation to Syria is a fiasco for the civilized world.”