AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed

On Sunday, Fatah and Hamas reached an agreement to form a “national unity government.” Faisal Abu Shahla, a member of Fatah, said, “We hope this time the two sides are serious in implementing the agreement. The Egyptians have promised to follow up with both sides to make sure that the agreement is implemented.” The move towards reconciliation followed a Cabinet reshuffle by Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.

Elliot Abrams weighed in on the unity deal, saying, “This announcement is interesting and potentially significant, but not in obvious ways.” Having the agreement facilitated by the Egyptian General Intelligence Service indicates the organization still exerts influence on Palestinian politics. Abrams also pointed out the agreement “shows a continuing determination on the part of the Fatah old liners and Hamas leaders to sideline PA prime minister Salam Fayyad,” and posited that in the long run the unity government will not last due to Fatah and Hamas chasm of disagreement. Abdel Bari Atwan believes that the Palestinian cause has largely gone unheeded due to an “Israeli propaganda machine [that] has become adept at obscuring the Palestinian cause with other stories while its own atrocities against the Palestinians continue unnoticed.” As the Palestinians have done everything in their power to gain equal status, Atwan writes, “I believe the third intifada is on its way.”

Photo Credit: Asr Noh

According to Radio Zamaneh, Iranian economist Fariborz Rais Dana was arrested Monday in Tehran to serve out a formerly reprieved one-year sentence. The charges stem from a BBC Persian interview in which Rais Dana criticized the government for removing subsidies, accusing Ahmadinejad of “illusion therapy” and emphasizing that the government’s actions would wreak havoc on the economy. He was found guilty of charges including “membership in the Writer’s Association, preparing seditious announcements against the regime, giving interviews to BBC and VOA, and accusing the Islamic Republic of abusing prisoners and holding show trials.” Meanwhile, Mansour Radpour, an Iranian political prisoner originally arrested for apparent sympathies to the Mujahideen-e-Khalq, died in Rejai Shahr Prison in Karaj under suspicion of extensive torture.  Amnesty International also reported that 14 unnamed individuals were executed on drug-related charges, and security forces responded with violence and teargas after demonstrations erupted in response to government inaction regarding the drying-up of Lake Oroumiyeh.

Additionally, Reporters Without Borders criticized Iran’s Ministry for Culture and Islamic Guidance for detaining and interrogation journalists. At the UNHCR’s Universal Periodic Review, Iranian officials called on Bahrain to “free all political prisoners, put a stop to arbitrary arrests of government opponents and end the impunity reigning in the country.” Reporters Without Borders said it was “amazed that [Iran] dare to lecture others when hundreds of political prisoners, including 31 journalists and 18 netizens, are languishing in Iran’s own jails.”

The United Nations High Commission for Human Rights held a Universal Periodic Review (UPR) on Tunisia on May 22. A delegation from Tunisia presented the following as positive achievements; the revolution of last year has led to a democratic transition, the new government has taken several measures to safeguard civil society, and efforts have been made to prevent violence against women. Delegations in the hearing also noted other positive changes, such as the release of political prisoners, new legislation to ensure the independence of the judicial system, and the accession to international treaties – as recommended in the first UPR. The working group raised some issues, such as more efforts were needed to respect civil society, challenges to freedom of expression, attacks against peaceful protesters, and steps needed to be taken to combat social and economic disparities.

UPR Info, an NGO dedicated to promoting the UPR, commented on the hearing, noting on its Twitter feed that: Tunisia is a “pioneer” in promotion of women’s rights in the Arab world, with 49 women as a part in the national assembly. It also noted there were on-going social reform, but there are, “limited resources and [it is a] challenge to change society beliefs”.

The adoption of the report of the UPR Working Group on Tunisia is scheduled for May 25.

In a written statement, the State Department announced it will provide $1.5 million in funding to the Organization for Economic and Cooperative Development (OECD), through its U.S. Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) office, to support open governance and political participation in the Middle East and North Africa.  The funding will be provided to Jordan, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia, as the governments work with civil society organizations to increase government transparency and accountability. The four areas of focus for improvement within each government are: fiscal transparency; access to information; disclosures related to senior public officials; and citizens’ engagement. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton said, “the real choice is between reform and unrest,” the desire being for reform to be chosen with inclusive economic growth to follow.

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Calling the recent Algerian parliamentary elections a fraud, a new Algerian opposition front of 14 small political parties, which hold 29 of 462 parliamentary seats,  announced it will boycott the new parliament. Ali Laskri, the leader of the Algerian opposition Socialist Front Forces, told Euronews of election irregularities: “There were many problems. Some people couldn’t vote because they could not find their names on the voting register. There were polling stations that were closed. So there were a lot of constraints placed on those casting ballots. That also makes a difference for the results.” Similarly, Lakhdar Ben Khellaf, spokesman for the small Islamist party the Front for Justice and Democracy, called the election a “shameful fraud.” Meanwhile, the Front for Change (FC), which won just four seats in Parliament, said it could not envision an alliance with the parties in power under any circumstances. ”The government has thrown away a golden opportunity for Algeria to bring about change through peaceful means,” FC leader Abdelmadjid Menasra, stated during a press conference.

While the parliamentary elections were met with praise for Western leaders, others feel the election was just a window dressings for true political reform. ”Algeria has satisfactory relations with Washington and Paris. It needs to do well enough [with reform] not to embarrass its Western partners, and that’s what it’s done. Everybody will agree the system stinks, but no one has a positive proposal how we will get out of here,” said Hugh Roberts, of Tufts University.

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Following Monday’s suicide attack at a military parade drill in Sana’a, the “Friends of Yemen” gathered in Riyadh to provide political and financial support for Yemen. The coalition is co-sponsored by Britain, Saudi Arabia and Yemen with 27 countries and multiple international aid organizations included as well. The event is set to address Yemen’s worsening humanitarian conditions and political instability.  Jerry Farrell, Save the Children’s director in Yemen, said, “Political instability, conflict and high prices have left families across the country going hungry… unless urgent humanitarian action is taken, Yemen will be plunged into a hunger crisis of catastrophic proportions.”

In response, Saudi Arabia has pledged $3.25 billion in aid, and other Gulf states contributed as well, bringing the aid to $4 billion. ”I assert one more time our support to Yemen to back all the phases of the political initiative to help achieve security, stability and prosperity in facing the threats of extremism and terrorism,” stated Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal. Britain also responded that it would increase the aid already provided to Yemen by $44 million. The U.S. State Department released a statement detailing the break down of financial aid for Yemen in FY 2012. According to Yemeni Finance Minister Sakhr Ahmed al-Wajeeh, Yemen is likely to run a $2.5 billion budget deficit this year. Yemeni news sources reported the Planning and International Minister Mohammad Al-Saadi saying Yemen needs $10 billion from donors to fund its infrastructure and services.

In other news, Reporters Without Borders sent an open letter to President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi concerning a proposed law to regulate private broadcasting and electronic media. The letter addresses the categorizing of private and public media outlets as different entities; a restrictive licensing system; lack of independence in the checks and sanctions that can be imposed; vague language used; and the scant attention paid to electronic media.

Photo Credit: Svitalsky Bros

Today marked the beginning of Egypt’s first post-Mubarak presidential election, and the first round will conclude Thursday evening. Fifty million people are eligible to cast their votes, and turnout was expected to be high. Many voters had already formed lines outside some polling stations before they opened at 8am local time, according to Al Jazeera. Early voter Mounira Fawaz told Al Jazeera: “I feel freedom and for the first time, my voice and opinion really counts.”

In the run up to the election, numerous analysts have offered their insights. Laila Fadel offers a factual overview of the presidential candidates and election procedures, while Amr Nabil posits that “Egypt’s revolutionary fervor [has given] way to the wish for stability.” Robert Danin compiled the opinions regarding the elections of numerous foreign policy experts, including Elliott Abrams of the Council on Foreign Relations and Daphne McCurdy of the Project on Middle East Democracy. H.A. Hellyer analyzes the impact that Egypt’s military and Islam may have on the election, suggesting, “Analysis of  the motives of voters showed that [the support base of the Muslsim Brotherhood and al-Nour] was not ideological, but political.” Magdi Abdelhadi suggests that the election is “a game of the least bad option,” and that “Egyptians are being asked not to choose the future but to choose between various versions of an imagined glorious past.” Finally, Mahmood Delkhasteh and Hassan Rezaei argue that sharia is compatible with democracy and human rights, asserting “If citizens keep demanding human rights, sharia in harmony with such rights can blossom.”

Today, the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on the Department of State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs passed the fiscal year 2013 Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Bill.  Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) was the only member present to vote against reporting the bill out of the committee.  Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT), chairman of the subcommittee, said, ”This bill totals $52.1 billion, which is $2.6 billion below the President’s budget request, and $1.2 billion below the Fiscal Year 2012 level.”  Leahy also included in the bill ” a new Middle East and North Africa Incentive Fund requested by the President, to respond to rapidly changing events in that volatile region.”

A summary of the subcommittee bill includes $733 million for the Broadcasting Board of Governors; $1.6 billion for Contributions to International Organizations; and $2 billion for assessed Contributions for International Peacekeeping Operations.  The bill also includes $1.4 billion for United States Agency for International Development Operating Expenses.

Additionally, the bill includes a total of $1.1 billion for Iraq, of which $450 million is for State Department; $582.3 million is for foreign assistance; no funding is included for the police development program; and funding for the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction totals $6 million.  In the markup hearing, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) noted the dramatic decrease in funding to Iraq as “throwing good money going after bad,” citing the deteriorating security situation especially in the case of the police development program.

The bill requests $3.1 billion for Development Assistance and $5.1 billion for the Economic Support Fund. Economic assistance for Egypt totals $250 million, and for Jordan $410 million.  In the markup hearing, Ranking Member Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) noted the inclusion of an additional $50 million above the administration’s request for economic assistance to Jordan, citing the influx of Syrian refugees and the role of King Abdullah II as a “moderating force” in the region.  For Foreign Military Financing, $3.1 billion is included for Israel; $300 million for Jordan; and $1.3 billion for Egypt.  He noted “very strong restrictions on assistance”  such as Pakistan, Egypt, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

The bill sets aside $898.2 million for the Millennium Challenge Corporation, $59 million for the USAID Office of Transition Initiatives and $50 million for the Complex Crises Fund.  In the markup hearing, Senator Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) noted the MCC account “will go a long way in part of this American power doing something.”

Furthermore, the bill incorporates $1 billion the Middle East and North Africa Incentive Fund, a new account to support transition, political reform, and economic growth in those regions.  In the markup hearing, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) noted the subcommitee’s decision to request the fund $230 million above the administration’s $770 million request “to give the State Department the ability to go in to places like Tunisia and Libya that are at a crossroads and come up with some financial assistance to stabilize those countries.”  He added that Tunisia is becoming a “very good new story if they stay on track” in the region and “this account allows the State Department some flexibility in a very quick changing area of the world.”

The bill includes $103.9 million for administrative expenses of the Export-Import Bank; $60.8 million for administrative expenses of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation; and $38.2 million for the U.S. Institute of Peace.

Senator Dan Coats (R-IN) asked in the markup hearing why Senators Leahy and Graham included $79 million for UNESCO, despite legislative actions that would bar any U.S. contribution to a U.N. agency which granted Palestinians statehood status.  Senator Leahy suggested Senator Coats bring the issue up with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in an authorization bill, and that the funding designated for UNESCO could be “spent on other uses” and reprogrammed in consultation with Senator Graham.

© AFP, Anwar Amro

Syrian opposition members reportedly kidnapped 11 Lebanese Shi’ites in the northern province of Aleppo as they returned home from a pilgrimage. The kidnapping occurred one the heels of violent spillover from Syria into Lebanon which has sparked sectarian and political rivalries in Lebanon. The leader of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah called for calm after Lebanese took the streets in Beirut protesting against the kidnappings, saying  ”any act of violence or individual action will not help this case at all.” Professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, Simon Haddad, expressed concern: “The pace of destabilizing Lebanon is accelerating as was seen in the recent security incidents. Lebanon faces a serious threat of a drift toward sectarian violence unless(Prime Minister Najib) Mikati, (former Prime Minister Saad) Hariri and other political leaders cooperate to ease the tension.”

The Lebanses authorities released the Sunni cleric Shadi al-Moulawi who was arrested on May 12 on charges of “aiding a terrorist organisation.” Moulawi is a outspoken critic of Bashar al-Assad‘s regime. His arrest was followed by violence in northern city of Tripoli.

Additionally, Aaron Y. Zelin explores a Jihadi group, the Jabhat al-Nusrah (“The Victory Front” or JN),  whose attack on a military intelligence branch in Damascus killed 55 and wounded hundreds more. The group has quickly attracted attention, receiving the support of other jihadist groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and by undermining the Free Syria Army.  According to Zelin the JN’s “main goals are to awaken Muslims to the atrocities of the Assad regime, and eventually take control of the state and implement its narrow and puritanical interpretation of Islamic law.” Martin Chulov reports about former soldier Mohammed Rahman Sohail‘s defection from the Syrian military to the Free Syria Army, telling of the violent methods of the Bashar army uses to crush the rebellion. He witnessed the death of 83 during a massacre in Jebel al-Zawiya last December.

For full event notes, continue reading below or click here for the PDF version

Shibley Telhami began the event by adressing the opinion poll which was conducted in Egypt between May 4^th and May 10^th. Telhami noted that the poll was based on face to face interviews with residents in the cities and rural Egyptians and had a sample size of 773 with a margin of error of ­+/- 3.6%. He said the point of the poll was not only to look at who Egyptians say they will vote for, but what is driving their choices.

On the question of who Egyptians will vote for, Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh led the field at 32%, followed by Amr Moussa at 28%, Ahmed Shafiq at 14%, Mohammed Morsi at 8% and Hamdeen Sabahi at 8%. Telhami commented that he believes Morsi will receive higher poll numbers in the vote, but he is not sure who will be the top two vote getters in the first round. He also believes there will be a run-off. He noted that Egyptians living abroad have voted and those living in Western countries voted for secularists and those living in Saudi Arabia voted for the Muslim Brotherhood’s Morsi, which indicates to him that turnout in the vote matters.

On the question of criteria for selecting President, the highest was personal trust at 31%, followed by position on the economy at 22% and the candidate’s personal experience at 19%. Telhami contrasted this with the same questions for criteria in voting for parliament, where the highest factors were political party, candidate’s personal history and then personal trust.

Several religious themed questions were asked in the survey. Among them were that 71% of those surveyed believed that the Muslim Brotherhood made a mistake in reversing a pledge not to put forward a presidential candidate and that while 66% of Egyptians support Sharia as the basis for Egyptian law, 83% believed that only the spirit of Sharia should be applied, as opposed to a literal interpretation.

On foreign relations, a majority of Egyptians viewed Turkey as the model they wished Egypt to follow and a majority of Egyptians viewed Turkish Prime Minister Recep Teyyip Erdogan as the leader they admire most. A majority of Egyptians also held a negative view of the United States and this opinion was tied for U.S. support for Israel.

During the discussion, Steven Cook said that not everything in the poll was conventional wisdom and there were several positive things in the poll. He said these polls will be free and fair and the next fight in Egypt will be over presidential powers. He also commented on how the low perception of the U.S. should be taken seriously and the best thing for the U.S. to recognize that, “less is more” in terms of policy. He also said the U.S. must reassess its relationship with Egypt.

During the question and answer session, Telhami was asked about the fall in support for the Muslim Brotherhood and whether this was due to Egyptians desire for a divided government. He said that this question wasn’t asked in the survey, but his sense was that Egyptians want democracy and were punishing the group for fielding a presidential candidate, despite promises not to. On the question of methodology and demographics, Telhami said that the poll was balanced by age, gender and religion and contrasted this with unscientific polls conducted by newspapers. He commented that the poll results were only for the specific time period in question and opinions could have changed since that time.

Both Cook and Telhami expressed their optimism, but noted that the transition process is not over and the upcoming fight for the constitution will be an important moment in the continuing process. On the question of a second round, Telhami said that the question of what would happen in a second round, since most commentators believe that there will be a run-off, is hard to gauge, because some candidates would fare better based on who their opponent is. However, he believes Fotouh would have the greatest advantage. Last, Cook said that it is unlikely that ruling military council will try to rig the elections, because they do not want to continue with the powers of the presidency and rigging at this point would be a very difficult undertaking.