But you’re not out of luck just yet…

Many countries around the world will be able to steer around this extended recession. Some are even in prime position to explode.

And it’s not as difficult to invest abroad as it may seem. Today, it’s as effortless as buying an American Depositary Receipt — same thing as a stock — through your online broker. Figuring out which ones to buy is the hard part.

In Lifetime Income Report, we’ve ramped up our portfolio to reflect our favorites: Asia, Africa and Latin America. Today I’m letting Penny Sleuth readers in on two south-of-the-border plays you can play immediately…

Escape the Second Downturn on Lula’s Coattails

Our favorite international plays come from Brazil. This probably doesn’t come as a surprise. We’ve been bullish on Brazil for over a year now.

The Brazilian economy has never looked better. For starters, the democratic government of President Luiz Lula da Silva is both popular and smart. Instead of leading the Brazilian people down the same road they always seem to end up on — collapsing currency and enormous income disparity — Lula re-cemented the federal and state budgets, brokered trade deals across the globe, and brought the country’s economy into top-ten status.

This success helped him win a landslide reelection in 2006. Even his political opponents can’t discount the success he’s had in making sure Brazil didn’t fall into the same recession that’s now captured the rest of the globe.

Sure, smaller export numbers and commodity prices have put a small hold on Brazil’s growth. But by this time next year, the country’s GDP should be back up to a 3.5-4% growth rate.

Lula has been able to do this by placing a little fiscal responsibility into a system that’s rarely had it. It’s been just 11 years since Brazil suffered from its last currency crash. Thankfully, the country adjusted its currency after that fiasco, completely taking the real off the U.S. dollar peg.

This is probably the most important reason Brazil is now starting to garner some recognition as a safe haven for growth investing.

The federal deficit and spending habits here in the U.S. can only hold for so long. Even China — the country holding more U.S. Treasury Notes than any other — recently remarked that it would like to drop the dollar as the world reserve currency.

Having a currency that’s not pegged to the dollar is a huge benefit in today’s inflationary world.

But besides a superior currency, Brazil investments come with many other perks that interest smart investors.

The Brazilian Advantage

Take tax rates for instance. It’s easy to find foreign plays that pay large dividends. It’s difficult to find ones that don’t have a cut taken off the top just because you’re a foreign investor.

Canada is the most common example. Until very recently, Canada had some of the best royalty plays in the world. The vast resources of our neighbor to the north translated into large income distributions for investors.

That all changed in 2006, when the Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty decided to take advantage of all the rich American investors coming across the border for those large yields. Now, if you are an American, you have to pay his government 15% on all Canadian income trust distributions you receive.

This is a new trend developing throughout the investing world. Fortunately, there are a few safe income havens left. Brazil, Great Britain, Indonesia, Hong Kong, and Mexico are the five zero-tax-withholding countries that we are focused on.

Another perk Brazil has to offer is its rapid acceleration on the world stage. Lula’s popularity and successful reforms have helped put a spotlight on South America’s largest country.

Not only is Lula’s voice highly anticipated in any international gathering, his ability to highlight his country’s tourism-friendly assets helped Brazil lock in the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics.

Of course, just having a great investment location isn’t enough. You need to have the perfect investment to take advantage of it. And we have two of them…

Grab Green Income with the World-Leading Hydro Generator

When most people think of renewable energy, they think of wind farms and solar plants. But one of the most widely used forms of renewable energy is hydroelectric. And no country knows more about hydropower than Brazil.

The Itaipu hydroelectric dam, located on the Panara River between Brazil and Paraguay, is currently the largest in both capacity and annual generation in the world. The site generates nearly 100 billion kilowatthours (Bkwh). That would be enough to power 11.2 million U.S. homes. That might be why the American Society of Civil Engineers picked it as one of the Seven Wonders of the Modern World.

Brazil entered into an agreement with Paraguay in 1973 to build and share the electricity produced from Itaipu. Currently, Paraguay uses it to power more than three quarters of its electricity needs, selling the rest of its share to Brazil.

It was during that 1973 treaty signing that Brazil decided to go headlong into the hydropower business.

The South American leader now generates more than 372 Bkwh per year from hydroelectricity — 85% of total generation.

Brazil is also expanding its capacity at a rapid rate. Over the next 20 years, only China will be generating more electricity from hydropower plants.

Lula’s government has spent plenty to back hydropower expansion. Most of the $221 billion earmarked for infrastructure, transport and energy in Brazil’s stimulus plan is slated for hydro capacity increases.

To take advantage of Lula’s hydropower initiatives, and reap the rewards of Brazil’s fast-growing economy, you should take a serious look at these two hydro giants:

• Companhia Paranaense de Energia (NYSE: ELP) is a major player in the Brazilian hydro market. The company owns 17 different hydro plants, most of which are located on the Panara River. The stock is in position for an easy double from here.

• Enersis (NYSE: ENI) owns and operates 53 power plants — most of which are hydroelectricity plants — that have an installed capacity of more than 14,000 MW. We could see units of ENI continue to climb over the next year. Meanwhile, you’ll be able to collect large dividend yields for as long as you hold it.

While they’re bigger than most of the opportunities that we talk about in the Sleuth, they offer the some of the best exposure to the burgeoning utility sector in Brazil. I expect them — and other Brazilian ADRs — to do well in the coming months regardless of where the market heads here at home.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

November 6, 2009

Two Brazilian Plays to Beat the Market was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Regular investors can actually take a cut of every single bill payment you and your neighbors make. Today, we’ll show you how…and give you three small-cap plays you need to get into right now…

When embattled in a game of Monopoly, the three sets of properties we typically shoot for are Boardwalk and Park Place, the railroads and the utilities. Why would Parker Bros. make such a fuss over these three assets?

Well, luxury real estate like the dark blues is typically lucrative. In today’s world, however, that probably isn’t your best bet.

How bout the railroads? Owning transportation and shipping systems is always a profitable venture. But with competition from cheap air cargo and trucking, railroads just don’t have the appeal they once did.

That leaves the utility companies. If you can own the transfer of water or electricity, chances are you’ll make a pretty penny. That’s why we’re big proponents of utilities.

These companies can pay such high dividends because they make so much money off the growing demand for natural gas, electricity and even water.

Buy why is now the best time to load up on utilities? Because they are as recession proof as it gets.

Time to Take a Trip on the Electric Avenue

Josh Peters of Morningstar writes, “Even during recessions, people have to heat their homes, take showers and keep that TV set aglow.” Even if television doesn’t sound like a necessity, try telling that to the majority of Americans. While ad revenue has crashed in the last 12–18 months, TV viewership is as steady as before…if not better.

While we think natural gas is the investment you need to make right now, electricity is the easiest and most lucrative. You see, the average American will actually use more electricity during recessions…a lot more time spent in their living rooms watching TV and surfing the Web.

Sure, industry has slumped a considerable amount. But electricity companies have seen only a nominal drop in revenue, most of which is already factored in. Meanwhile, they are paying larger and larger dividends.

When looking for an electric utility, the No. 1 characteristic to seek out is cash flow. The more cash running through a company, the better. You also have to consider whether the company is taking steps to curb spending. Today’s we have three small-cap utilities that have done expert jobs of both.

Buy These Three to Shore Up Your Income Portfolio

First up is UIL Holdings Corp (NYSE: UIL). UIL is an electric utility in New Haven, Connecticut. The company has a solid customer base of nearly 325,000. Only 5.6% of its revenue comes from industrial businesses, which helped the company escape the last market collapse relatively unscathed.

But the best part about UIL is its dividend. The company has paid out its income to shareholders dating back to 1977. Over that period, its dividend grew considerably. Now you can get a solid, consistent 6.3% dividend yield, without worrying about where the stock goes. You can’t get that with a savings account.

Next is NorthWestern Corp (NYSE: NWE). With both electricity and natural gas operations, the company has over 650,000 customers in South Dakota, Montana and Nebraska. NorthWestern has little-to-no competition in its operating region, which makes it a true semi-monopoly.

While it’s only been paying dividends for a little over a year, the company has already raised its payments to 34 cents per quarter. That works out to a solid 5.4% yield. Now is the time to lock in this growing income.

Finally, we found Empire District Electric Co (NYSE: EDE). Empire generates, transmits, and distributes electricity in Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and its home state of Missouri. While the company’s stock is a bit more volatile than others, it does offer another upside most don’t.

Empire also has water operations in various places in Missouri. This could become a lucrative business, as the cost of water continues to skyrocket.

Empire’s 7% dividend yield is enough to give it a serious look. High yielders like this don’t come along too often. We suggest you jump on it.

All three of these should be consistent income generators for years to come. If you are worried about a second market drop, or you just want to get your share of your neighbor’s energy bills, these are your best bets.

After all, where else can you get safe income in this market?

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

October 27, 2009

Get Paid When Your Neighbor Turns on His Kitchen Light was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Silver is the most flexible metal on earth. We’re not talking about its malleability. We’re talking about how it is used.

Let’s take the point of view of those expecting a quick, painless recovery. In that case, silver is a great investment. It has many industrial uses other precious metals don’t. As the global economy kicks back into gear, we’ll see more demand from electronics manufacturers, battery makers and solar cell producers — all of which use silver in their products.

There are thousands of uses for silver in industry. It is used in water purification, medical machinery and, of course, jewelry. All of these industries will begin to pump out products again, which will put a strain on our limited aboveground silver reserves.

Now take a look at the world through the eyes of those thinking we are going to see a second collapse. The best place to store wealth is in precious metals. Of course, gold is the most common place to store cash, but silver is no slouch.

From 2006 until now, the physical holdings of silver funds have jumped 11-fold. That’s because more people than ever are interested in holding silver — or at least a fund that holds silver.

Silver is both a way to safely store your wealth and to spend it. Over the past several centuries, silver has been used as currency. In fact, our own U.S. dollar was once backed by silver. For those expecting the worst, silver is a must-own. These ETF holdings don’t even take into account how many people are stocking up on personal physical holdings.

There’s no shortage of demand. Everything is in place for another massive run-up. Gold already broke the $1,000 per ounce threshold last month. And it busted through its 2006 highs this week. Even so, silver is still lagging around $16.50.

David Morgan from Silver-Investor.com notes that when gold breaks through $1,000 and stays there for a length of time, silver will shoot up. He even went as far as to say silver will break through last year’s $21 high and hit $25 per ounce sometime in 2010.

Are we suggesting you buy silver? Well, yes. But we have a much better way for you to make money off this rise…

Buying shares of a major primary silver miner like Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW) would do the trick. It’ll certainly leverage its massive reserves and production against silver’s rise and return larger profits to shareholders than simply buying silver will. But even these gains will be miniscule compared with what you could see with small-caps.

We have an opportunity to get option-sized gains on silver’s rally without the downside or expiration hassles of actually buying options. By buying shares in a junior silver miner, like Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL) or Mag Silver (AMEX: MVG), we can take advantage of huge price swings without worrying about it expiring worthless, as options often do.

In just the last week, Hecla is up 15%, and Mag is up another 5%. As I write, these stocks are continually pushing into new 2009 highs ever day. When the silver boom gets traction in the market, expect small players like these to rocket as a result.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

October 7, 2009

Finding Option-Sized Gains from $25 Silver was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

But first, there’s a catch…

These “Trump Cards” aren’t traded very often. And you can’t find them on an exchange. That’s what makes them so lucrative. You see, it’s this lack of liquidity that makes these high-yield bonds, as they’re called, double and even triple overnight.

Once you get past the sometimes-frustrating volume issue, you’ll find many advantages high-yield bonds use to trump regular stocks.

First, there is the time element. You can hold a stock indefinitely, as long as the company stays in business. Bonds, however, mature at a certain date. They can even be called away. But unlike options, bonds use time to work in their favor. The closer to maturity date, the better. Time adds an extra benefit, because once it runs out, investors get paid.

Bonds are also higher on the importance scale for a company. Even if the unfathomable occurs and the issuing company liquidates, bondholders are paid first. Next come preferred stockholders and finally common stockholders.

The most important advantage bonds have over stocks is their guaranteed value. Stocks are bought and sold with a constant moving target. Each investor has his or her own target value. Bonds, however, have a face value. That face value, usually $1,000, is the price those holders will receive at maturity. This gives us a clear picture of what our investment will pay us. It can also give us a guaranteed double or triple.

Say you buy a corporate bond with a face value of $1,000 and a maturity date of August 2011. Instead of paying the full $1,000, you’ll oftentimes receive a hefty discount. Let’s say in this case, the bonds are trading at around $330. That’s a guaranteed triple as long as the company doesn’t go insolvent.

Here’s why the guarantee is so important. Even if the company does go belly up, every asset sold will be used to pay you. Common shareholders might receive a few dollars of whatever is left in the end. But you are paid first.

Don’t want to wait until 2011 to have your payday? No problem. Just trade it in early. As you can see, that’s an equally lucrative choice.

Instead of waiting until October 2027 for a 614% payday, investors on this bond could’ve cashed out today for a 5-month 186% gain. It’s easy enough to flip that gain into other fast moving high-yield bonds.

To get you started, here are two of the top traded bonds:

• Realogy Corp 10.5% Coupon Maturing Apr. 2014 (CUSIP: 75605EAT7)
• Clear Channel Communications 10.75% Coupon Maturing Aug. 2016 (CUSIP: 184502BB7)

Note: Be careful trading these. Corporate bonds can be extremely volatile.

The coupon rate is the original yield based on the $1,000 face value. This is also a large selling point for income investors as the yield becomes inflated with lower prices.

The CUSIP is the equivalent of a stock’s ticker symbol. Although, instead of using it to place orders on an exchange like stocks, the CUSIP is used for bond traders to quickly identify each particular issue.

To find your own high-yield bonds, you can check out any free bond screener such as Yahoo! Finance’s. Just enter the criteria you are looking for – like coupon rate, maturity date, and credit rating – and scan through the results until you find one you like.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

September 29, 2009

Your Guaranteed Triple with the Stock Market “Trump Card” was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Oil peaked at $147 per barrel in July 2008 — right before the house of cards came crashing down on the global economy. Once banks started to fail and credit dried up, other businesses slowed production and laid off workers. This created a massive trickle effect on the overall economy.

Big corporations and individual consumers alike were using less energy. That meant the prices of every energy-related commodity plummeted.

This spring, things started to turn around… The unemployment rate quit falling at such a rapid rate. Inventories were too low in many industries, creating a ramp up in production again. Energy prices climbed…

Since the start of this year, the price of crude oil has nearly doubled. In just the last six months, heating oil jumped as much as 90%. These two commodities are still cheap as far as we can tell. But they aren’t the real story…

Two other commodities are still low, but won’t be for long…

Coal and Natural Gas Are Commodity Buddies

Back in June, Greg Guenthner told you about coal’s recent history. Coal, being the most widely used fossil fuel in the U.S., took an extra-hard hit during the past several months. It’s down nearly 70% and hasn’t recovered in the slightest.

Demand will flood back into the system. In fact, that’s already happening. We have no doubt that the coal play we let our Penny Stock Fortunes readers in on is the best way to take advantage of the coming coal boom. But there’s another energy commodity about to shoot even higher, even faster…

Natural gas prices have utterly collapsed. After trading above $13 in June 2008, natural gas fell the whole way down to $2.70 today. Its decline happened as gradually as can be. Most of the financial world has been trying to time the bottom for months. But it keeps falling.

We don’t know if this is the bottom, but it can’t be far from it. It doesn’t matter to us even if it’s not. You see, we found the best natural gas seasonal laborer in the world, and we can just wait it out… no matter how long it takes.

Before we get into any specific natural gas play, we need to know how big natural gas’s recovery will be…

Why We’ll See Natural Gas 209% Higher By Year-End

Natural gas and coal go hand in hand. They are oftentimes found together in the same place. Natural gas hides beneath and between coal beds. It’s not uncommon for a coal company to come in and mine the same site an oil and natural gas driller just left.

When one of these two is no longer in demand, it usually spells trouble for the other. That’s one of the main reasons natural gas has taken such a hit. But just as they fall together, they rise together.

We already laid out the reason coal will see a price spike in coming months and years. Natural gas is just as lucrative, if not more…

Natural gas demand is continuing to increase around the world at an unprecedented pace. Many nations are starting to choose NG over traditional coal and oil in power plants. It burns about 29% cleaner than petroleum and 44% cleaner than coal.

And because of its recent price collapse, it’s now the cheapest choice for customers. Why pay more for coal or oil when you can get natural gas for $2.50 per thousand cubic feet?

The supply side of the coin is even more compelling…

The U.S. imports around 17% of its natural gas — almost all of which comes from Canada. Unfortunately, Canada’s natural gas reserves are drying up. Daily Canadian natural gas production peaked in 2001. We’re already back down to 1995 production levels, and falling.

Natural gas production here in the U.S. has also fallen off a cliff. Most drillers can’t drill for a profit at these prices. So they aren’t. We have almost no production right now. We’ll eventually burn through stored natural gas reserves. When they go too low, it will spur a panic.

This panic will be enormous. Natural gas is simply too cheap. It hasn’t been this cheap for decades. The average oil-to-natural gas price ratio is about 9.3. Now it’s at about 29.

It wouldn’t take much for prices to shoot upward from here. To reach the 20-year average natural gas-to-oil ratio, NG prices would have to climb 209%.

That doesn’t take into account the future boom in demand. It won’t take long for it to correct itself…certainly before the end of this year.

This panic is inevitable, and there are a number of penny stock plays that could take advantage of it… Union Drilling (NASDAQ: UDRL) and Pioneer Drilling (AMEX: PDC) are two that could be worth looking at right now.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

September 23, 2009

Natural Gas’ Triple Could Give Us a 416% Gain By Year-End was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Those gains came from companies you are probably already familiar with: Roche Holdings, Wal-Mart of Mexico, and Adidas. These three companies have a combined market cap of $177 billion, yet produced enormous penny stock-sized gains.

Beyond being large, international, and profitable, these three have something else in common: none of them trade on a major U.S. exchange.

Roche is Swiss, Adidas is German, and Wal-Mart of Mexico is a southern neighbor. So unless you live in Switzerland, Germany, or Mexico, you might be wondering how you can get in on opportunities like these.

Until a few years ago, we wouldn’t have had an answer for you. Luckily, the international investment landscape made at least one change for the better in recent years…

67 Companies That Are 3.4 Times Larger Than the Whole OTC Market

You may already be familiar with the Pink Sheets, now known as the Pink OTC Markets. The Pink OTC is just the information center of the over-the-counter market. It’s not actually an exchange like the New York Stock Exchange. Instead, it just gives individual investors access to OTC broker-dealers. Broker-dealers are the people that actually trade these securities.

One common criticism of OTC companies, especially those on the Pinks, is their lack of financial reporting.

To get listed on the NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ, you have to submit on-time, regular financial results to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

OTCBB-listed companies are required to report, but not as much as others.

Pinks, on-the-other hand, don’t have to report anything… ever. That’s why large institutional investors — like investment banks and mutual funds — aren’t usually allowed to touch these companies. Individuals like you, however, can trade Pinks using a simple online broker.

In 2007, the people at Pink Sheets brought us a new classification system to help us evaluate these often-misjudged securities: the OTCQX.

The OTCQX is a listing service with NYSE-like requirements. A few of these include minimum ownership requirements, trading volume, regular financial reporting, and ongoing business operations. These seem like a no-brainer, but millions of dollars are thrown at companies in the regular Pink Sheets that don’t meet any of these requirements.

This new OTCQX also opened another door… this one on the global stage.

Many foreign companies don’t seek listing their securities on the NYSE or AMEX because of these exchanges’ stringent filing requirements — not to mention the obscene fees they charge. With the OTCQX, these companies finally have another access point to U.S. investors.

Most OTCQX International-listed companies were previously traded on the Pink Sheets. In many cases, individual investors took it upon themselves to do this. Meaning the company didn’t have to draft a U.S. investor prospectus or sign a formal American Depositary Receipt bank agreement. U.S. investors and investment banks would literally travel to these companies’ home-country exchanges, buy shares, and trade them on the Pinks. With the OTCQX, and its massive success, these companies are now actively seeking this kind of trade volume.

Take a look at the traffic the OTCQX has spurred compared to its OTC counterparts:

More Than 3 Times More Dollar Volume Than Its Competitors Combined

As you can probably tell by now, the companies we discussed are all listed on the OTCQX International. But they are still on a relatively short list. According to the OTCQX website, there are only 53 in this category — out of only 67 total OTCQX-approved companies.

In coming months and years, these numbers will increase. As you can see, investors are already benefiting from this short list.

We have one OTCQX International company currently catching our attention. This $29 billion company is a global leader in its industry. It’s also growing at double-digit rates — 53% in the first half of this year!

If we decide to pull the trigger on it, we’ll do so to our Lifetime Income Report readers.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

August 25, 2009

Grab Secret Penny Stock Gains from the World’s Best Blue Chips was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Diaz was willing to give up his presidency, but apparently not to Madero. Diaz imprisoned Madero on election day. Madero broke out and escaped to Texas, where he published his “Letter From Jail” — a manifesto for suffrage and term limits. 

In this letter, the hint of agrarian reform and socioeconomic changes was enough to start the Mexican Revolution and seat him as the new president in 1911. While his presidency was a failure, his principles lived on.

After a bloody revolution from 1910- 1921, Mexico started implementing many of Madero’s suggestions, including free land distribution to peasants and constitutional social rights. These changes helped Mexico’s GDP grow sixfold between 1940-1970.

Nearly 100 years after Madero’s pen spurred economic and political change in Mexico, a second “Mexican manifesto” was published, and we have a chance to get in on Mexico’s revolutionary growth. 

Studying the Subtleties of Obrador’s Manifesto to the People of Mexico

On July 29, 2009, disenfranchised former presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador drafted Manifesto to the People of Mexico.

The 2006 presidential election in Mexico was a brutal, down-to-the-wire fight. In fact, many Mexicans still don’t recognize the current president, Felipe Calderon, as the legitimate leader of Mexico. Obrador contested the results and even ends his pronouncements — including the Manifesto — with the sign off, “Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Legitimate President of Mexico.”

The left-leaning Obrador continues to mock and fight with supporters of Calderon, as well as the president himself. In his manifesto, Obrador slams Calderon’s handling of this economic recession. But there is another message articulated in this document — one you need to familiarize yourself with.

He writes, “It is crucial to continue creating alternative networks of information to break our enemies’ manipulation of the media. It should be borne in mind that the very instrument of domination that the oligarchy uses is through controlling television, radio and the press.” This simple paragraph is the third of five changes he claims the Mexican people need to fix their political and economic systems. It’s also a giant opportunity for us.

If media control goes back to the people of Mexico as Obrador suggests, it will do so in one of two ways: dissolving the current media outlets completely or restructuring them.

Dissolving television, radio and newspapers as they stand today would probably be a disaster. In today’s modern world, the demand for information is incredible. 

Restructuring, however, would take only a few small tweaks and could help drive Mexico’s economy out of this recession.

While the current government does have a large amount of influence on media, it operates in a pseudo free market system. Many of these outlets — TV and radio stations, newspapers, and even international press agencies — are publicly traded. 

Restructuring would lead to billions of pesos pumped into these organizations, which would push share prices much higher. Even the possibility of spin-offs would create moneymaking opportunities.

How Mexico’s Second Manifesto Could Pay You a Fortune was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Before we get into the ins and outs of this sale, we need to clarify what it means to actually buy one-fourth of the Internet. Of course, you can’t just own something as large and independent as the Internet. But you can buy a portion of its traffic.

We’ve been recently writing about international telecoms. If you bought up enough of these Internet Service Providers you could potentially own enough Internet traffic to constitute a quarter. But there will soon be another way you can invest in the traffic with just a single click.

About 50% of all Internet traffic is from file sharing– people sharing music, videos, games, and every other type of file you can think of. Regardless of how you feel about Internet piracy, 50% of all bandwidth on the net is made up of this type of activity.

Here’s where the story really starts heating up…

The Pirate Bay: 2009 Has Already Been One Hectic Year

Half of all file-sharing traffic is hosted on a single website. That’s a fourth of all Internet traffic in one place. That site is called The Pirate Bay.

TPB was launched in 2003, less than one and a half years after Napster—the pioneer in music file sharing— was forced to shut down because of court rulings.

TPB operates in Sweden, free from initial U.S. laws. But over the past several years, the European Union and many individual member-countries have cracked down on e-piracy.

In 2006, Swedish police raided TPB’s headquarters, temporarily shutting down its server. April of this year was an even worse time for the organization. Founders Peter Sunde, Fredrik Neij, Gottfrid Svartholm and Carl Lundstrom were sent to prison for one year and slapped with a $3.6 million fine.

TPB’s Next Giant Step Forward

With the founders in jail and facing serious fines, another Sweden-based company, Global Gaming Factory, announced plans to purchase TPB for $7.8 million. GGF intends to turn TPB into a legal, fee-based website. Users would have to pay a monthly fee to share files. This money would then be used to pay copyright fees for each file transfer.

This, again, might conjure up images of Napster, which was bought by Roxio Inc at bankruptcy auction. Roxio rebranded it as Napster 2.0, which began to offer legal, paid transfers. Best Buy acquired Napster last year for $121 million, but is struggling to see profits.

GGF’s plans for TPB, however, aren’t as small as Best Buy’s were for Napster. GGF, almost immediately after announcing its plans to buy TPB, declared its intent to take the website public… on Nasdaq.

If all the legal and technical aspects of this deal work out as expected, TPB’s intial public offering will take place sometime in 2010. This gives us less than 16 months to plan.

But before we start setting aside cash for this IPO, we need to take a serious look at what this deal will look like.

Why You Should Not Buy Pirate Bay… At Least With What We Know Now

It’s safe to assume TPB’s 25-plus million users aren’t all going to start paying the monthly fees. Instead, we can expect more than 75% of these users to stop sharing files. Possibly as little as 10% of TPB’s current user base will be left when GGF starts requiring fees.

This transition is expected to come very soon. On August 27, GGF is holding a press conference to go over the details of this reorganization, as well as its plans for the IPO.

GGF is also working on deals to turn TPB’s enormous share of Internet traffic into a second revenue stream. By setting up deals with ISPs, GGF will trade promised bandwidth usage for cash.

ISPs are starting to sell bandwidth to customers instead of offering unlimited packages. This means that users that transfer a large amount of data packets will have to pay considerably more than those that just us the Internet to check their email.

With this transition from monthly subscriber to pay-as-you-go, ISPs will have an opportunity to make more money off bandwidth use. GGF promises that TPB will provide this.

However, we’re not sold on this business model. Napster 2.0 has not been able to mount a significant attack on powerful rivals such as Apple’s iTunes store. Even web giant Google has not been able to effectively monetize its $1.65 billion purchase of the world’s most popular video sharing site, YouTube.

GGF’s plan might seem enticing to some—don’t buy into the hype. Music and movie pirates will go somewhere else for their illegal downloads. Avoid this IPO at all costs.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

August 18, 2009

How You Can Own a Quarter of the Internet… And Why You Don’t Want to was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Most of the time, backdoor plays offer the largest profits in growth industries like this one. Sometimes, however, a straightforward approach is your best chance at the quickest gains. This is one of those times.

Take China Mobile, for instance. This telecom behemoth is the most obvious play in the region. In the last three years, the company doubled the number of subscribers and grew its bottom line 107%. That’s a rare feat for a $230 billion company.

China Mobile’s growth is impressive, but it’s nothing compared with what a small-cap player can do in this field. And with the telecom industry in Asia predicted to almost double by 2013, there’s plenty of room for other players to grow too.

That’s why we’ve been looking for under-the-radar Internet providers in Asia. And we just we found the only place worth looking at…

The Forgotten Power in Asia: Investing in Hong Kong

Most people think of China, India and Japan when you bring up Asia. The place most often left out of the conversation is Hong Kong — a Chinese territory that in 1997 ended 156 years of British rule.

Other than the small island nation of Brunei, Hong Kong has the largest GDP per capita in the entire region. In fact, the small territory is No. 14 in the whole world, and it’s only four spots behind the U.S.

Most are writing Hong Kong off these days, however. With the recent global financial collapse, Hong Kong’s large financial services industry was slaughtered. Even so, the world can’t just forget about this tiny-but-affluent region.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange, for instance, is host to companies worth a total $2.7 trillion. That’s 10 times larger than the American Stock Exchange!

Another surprising tidbit about Hong Kong is the resilience of its tourism industry. While nearly every country in the world saw a decline in number of tourists, as well as income from its tourism industry, Hong Kong actually saw its tourism grow. Last year, the number of visitors to Hong Kong grew 5%, and average spending per overnight visitor grew 6.2%.

Needless to say, this is an overlooked region, but it shouldn’t be. Hong Kong is very capable of producing winners.

Right now, there is a small handful of exciting Hong Kong telecom plays that are worth looking at, but unfortunately, at this stage, it’s a case of look but don’t touch. Many of them are too speculative to mention here right now.

Watch the region — we’ll let you know when that changes.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

August 14, 2009

How to Profit from the Asian Internet Boom was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.

Let me explain…

From 1990 to 2004 the number of internet users in the US absolutely exploded — going from less than 1% of the population back in 1990 all the way up to over 65% in 2004.

Check out the US’s hyper Internet growth chart below:

And, as you know by now, the rapid increase in Internet usage spawned enormous growth in computer and internet-related companies. Microsoft went up 9,750%. Yahoo jumped a whopping 7,763% in just three and a half years. And AOL, the grand daddy of them all, went up 73,050%from its 1992 IPO to its peak at the end of 1999.

The trick was to identify the growth early. And to get out before the bubble burst.

Well today we’ve got a rare second chance to “turn back time.”

As investors and traders, it’s rare that we get any second chances. But when you’re presented with one, you’d be a fool not to jump on for the ride.

But rather than betting on the US internet usage though, we’ll be exploiting the next a hyper growth industry that’s still in it’s infancy – emerging market telecoms.

According to the latest from the talking heads in mainstream finance, the world’s combined GDP is expected to grow at a 2–3% pace over the next several years. But emerging telecoms is anticipated to grow upwards of 45% by 2013.

Just 10 years ago, 86 million people around the world had a cell phone. Today, that number is more than 3.4 billion. That’s as if Ethiopia’s population grew to those of China, India, the U.S. and all of Western Europe combined.

With the ever-growing global economy, and the advent of the smartphone, the future for mobile phone sales looks bright. Smartphones, such as the iPhone and BlackBerry, have caused quite a stir around the world — even in countries historically ahead on mobile phone innovations. Smartphone sales are expected to triple in the next four years, bringing the number of worldwide users to 1.1 billion by 2013.

Along with cell phones, an exceedingly large number of emerging market Internet users are expected to come online in the next four years.

According to a Forrester Research report, the number of Internet users in 2013 will be 2.2 billion, or 45% more than the end of last year.

These two growth categories – mobile phones and Internet access – are both led by emerging economies. As you can see on this map, the number of Internet users in Asia should grow 377.5 million, or a whopping 67.4% in just four years!

This report also found that 52% more Latin Americans will be online in 2013, and the number of African users should double in this period.

The best way for penny stock investors to play this trend will be through ETF’s.

Each ETF investment will let you own hundreds of these tiny – and sometimes even privately owned – emerging market telecoms. And they’re as easy as buying a stock on the NYSE…

For a list of emerging telecom ETFs, simply go to www.morningstar.com and use the ETF screener.

Although the search will return quite a few, SPDF S&P International Telcommunications Sector (NYSE: IST) and WisdomTree’s International Communications (NYSE: DGG) are two of my favorites.

Both of these will allow you to play the fastest-growing industry in the world, as well as help you diversify your portfolio.

Remember, we rarely get a second chance at making a fortune. I suggest you jump on this one immediately.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

August 13, 2009

A Rare “Second Chance” at Making a Fortune was originally featured in the Penny Sleuth.