Thank your for reading since March 2008 and I wish you the best in your investing endeavors.

Andy Askey

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The 1992-2001 bull market cycle in the US Dollar has provided a usable cycle in the following correction.  The 1/4 line prompt a selloff while the 1/2 cycle put in a top.  The 3/4 line put in a bottom while the 7/8 line (not shown) put in a top.  The 100% cycle time is next May which could put in a long term low for the US Dollar. (That is just a guess.)

The angles of the bear market show there is several points of upside to the 1×2 while the USD remains in a downtrend.

The short term US Dollar shows a $5 move potential to the $80 mid-point level.  I am not saying the US Dollar will rally this much.  I only see it as possibility for a rally that keeps the trend down.

US Treasury yields bounced last week but do not look ready to break the long term bear market in yields.

A short term yield of near 4.09 looks to be the point to consider the possibility of yields changing the long term downtrend to up.

Related Posts

• Weekend Outlook – 06Dec09 (December 7, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 22Nov09 (November 23, 2009)
• US Dollar Continues Down (October 20, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 10Oct09 (October 10, 2009)
• Treasury Bonds Swing Down on Charts (October 6, 2009)

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• Goodbye Cruel World… (January 25, 2010)
• Vacation Time – To the Beach (August 8, 2009)
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The 2007-2009 bear market has been retraced about 3/4 of the range in less than 50% of the time.  I will not be surprised to finally see a correction back to the 50/50 point from here.

The VLE swing chart shows some topping action since September.  It is possible the VLE will make a new high here but I do not think it is going much higher without a 90 day correction.

The action in bonds showed a big spike up in yields on Friday after a surprisingly good jobs report.  Two things to note here – 1) yield remains in a down trend, and 2) the 1/8 time cycle has changed the trend.  Because the 1/8 time cycle is up in a couple weeks, it is possible that yields have hit a low for some period of time.

The US Dollar (USD) also bounced on Friday.  But keep in mind that it remains in a downtrend until there are swings higher.

And finally, the S&P Banking Index (BIX) remains near the 1994 level and has shown no real strength during this bounce.  I suspect there are a couple more years of pain in the banking sector.

Related Posts

• Weekend Outlook – 13Dec09 (December 14, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 29Nov09 (November 29, 2009)
• ValueLine Arithmetic Square of 90 (November 26, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 22Nov09 (November 23, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 15Nov09 (November 15, 2009)

The 2002-2007 Gann fan range of the SPX show price butting it’s head against the 1×1 angle.  As a general rule, this angle should provide significant resistance to a tired market.  The bounce itself remains at the four times slope line which is strong if taken stand alone.  But the fact that the market tanked below the 2002 low before the bounce puts the “strong” move into context.  Price has not even retraced to one-half of the 2002-2007 range yet.

A larger context picture of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows price at only 25% retrace level of the 2000-2002 bear market.  Again, a 70% plus move from the March low was a nice trade.  But there is no strength in the long term shown on this chart.

The SPX is moving to 270 days up from the March low.  The only real correction lasted about 30 days.  Price recently moved through 135 days from the July low.  Extended blowoff moves often end 135 days from the intermediate low (90 + 45 days).

Related Posts

• Weekend Outlook – 06Dec09 (December 7, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 15Nov09 (November 15, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 18Oct09 (October 18, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 04Oct09 (October 4, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 27Sep09 (September 27, 2009)

The VLE swing chart shows topping action during the past month.  Also note that the high was within one percent of 8 complete square of 9 cycles from the March low.  This is another reason not to be surprised if the high is in.

Related Posts

• Weekend Outlook – 06Dec09 (December 7, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 22Nov09 (November 23, 2009)
• PowerShares ValueLine Timeliness Select Portfolio Is Weak (October 8, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 04Oct09 (October 4, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 27Sep09 (September 27, 2009)

The 10 year US treasury bond continues down.  The recent bounce does not look significant from a long term view.  This is not to say the yield won’t go higher.  I am only pointing out that yields have not so far.

The US Dollar (USD) tried to break above the 1×1 angle on the long term chart.  Price failed and looks at least weak enough to test the long term lows.

Thanks to those who have been concerned about my status. A large combination of issues have kept me away from posting. At some point things will return to normal and I will resume posting more often.

Related Posts

• Weekend Outlook – 13Dec09 (December 14, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 06Dec09 (December 7, 2009)
• ValueLine Arithmetic Square of 90 (November 26, 2009)
• US Dollar Continues Down (October 20, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 10Oct09 (October 10, 2009)

Market is back to the oversold level of the last selloff. It is options expiration week so weird things can happen in the short term.

Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com

Related Posts

• Nasdaq Summation Index Pointing Down (October 15, 2009)
• Working Off Overbought Quickly (September 25, 2009)
• Autumnal Equinox 2009 (September 22, 2009)
• Oversold But May Continue Higher (September 16, 2009)
• Nasdaq Oversold At 1×1 Angle (August 19, 2009)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1929-1942 has provided a near perfect Roadmap of the Nasdaq since 2000 (as perfect as things get in the markets).  Price bounced 63% from March to November 1938 just as it has bounced about 71% this year.  If the cycles continue to play out as they did 60-70 years ago, the market will drop over 20% from here.  The subsequent test of the November high will fail but will  provide a 30% plus trading move.

The drop from the 1938 high lasted about 150 days.  Assuming the high is in on the Nasdaq we see that a 50% retrace of the March to November move in 150ish days will end next spring.  A test of the high in 150ish days (as in 1939) will move the next top to August 2010.  Note that the current “high” may not be in on the Nasdaq and I will adjust the projection accordingly if the October high is taken out.  I do not expect price to go much higher but those in charge like to play with the big indices to try to influence to masses.

The ValueLine Arithmetic index is my index of choice to monitor market health.  At this point price looks to be putting in a head and shoulders top and a move down to the 50/50 point is similar to the projection on the Nasdaq.

Related Posts

• Weekend Outlook – 06Dec09 (December 7, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 29Nov09 (November 29, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 18Oct09 (October 18, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 04Oct09 (October 4, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 27Sep09 (September 27, 2009)

The Nasdaq and NYSE Summation indices look weak with prices moving higher while the 10/20 day moving averages of the SI continue moving lower.  The NASI has flattened on the 10dma while the 20dma is moving down.  This looks somewhat odd with price moving up in October.  The NYSI is even weaker with the both the 10 and 20 day moving averages sloping downward.


Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com

Related Posts

• Oversold Bounce with Little Volume (October 5, 2009)
• Nasdaq Moving Toward Parallel Angle (September 16, 2009)
• Market Up While Summation Index Rolls Over (September 14, 2009)
• Weekend Outlook – 19Jul09 (July 19, 2009)
• McClellan Oscillators In Oversold Area (June 22, 2009)