Pac-10 Conference Guru

Team Breakdown: Stanford Cardinal

2010-08-06T01:06:00.001-07:00

Stanford Cardinal

By:

Stanford Guru (John Buchman)

Email me at: Stanford.guru@pac10guru.com

Pre-Season Massey Ranking:

Last year’s overall & conference record:

8-5 (6-3)

Bowl Game:

Sun Bowl- Loss to Oklahoma: 31-27

Trending up, down or flat:

Total Returning Starters:

14 returning starters overall, 8 on Offense, and 6 on Defense.

Key Returnees:

Andrew Luck (QB), Ryan Whalen (WR), Chris Owusu(WR), Shayne Skov (MLB), Owen Marecic ( FB, LB).

Key Losses:

Toby Gerhart (RB), Bo Mcnally(S), Jim Dray(TE).

Key Incoming Transfers:

As part of Stanford's strict admission process, rarely any transfers are admitted into the university as athletes. Current transfers on the Cardinal Team include tight end Konrad Reulend and kicker Nate Whitaker; both transfers from Notre Dame.

Key Incoming Freshman:

True freshman will not play much this year at Stanford, as upperclassmen and Sophomores rule the game. Key frcruits that may see playing time are as follows, Anthony Wilkerson(RB), Ricky Seale (CB) and highly touted 4 star recruit, Blake Lueders (LB,DE) will all see the field this year.

Under-the-Radar Players Ready for a Breakout Season:

1. Jamal Rashad Patterson (WR). Patterson, who only touched the ball twice on offense last year is a physical specimen, not the fastest receiver of the bunch, will look to step up for the cardinal this year. Scoring one touchdown last year, he has the ability to be an All Pac-10 type player if his 4 stars warrant him anything.

2. Usua Amanam (RB); a highly talented running back who sat out last year with an injury. He is most likely the fastest offensive player for the cardinal. He will see the field in many different spots, but is a change of pace back for the Cardinal; something they've been lacking for many years.

3. Michael Thomas (FS), Making the transition from cornerback will be a tough one for Thomas, only listed at 5'11, small for a safety, he defiantly can bring the wood on defense though. He provides an electric spark that the Cardinal will need to keep up with the Oregon's And USC's of the bunch. Physical and fast, look out for thomas to have more big hits than interceptions this year.

Players who need to step it up this season:

Doug Baldwin, a receiver who didn't see much action for the Card in 2009, is a small but quick slotback who will hopefully see the field more this year. He caught 4 passes for 78 yards in 2009, compared to 23 passes for 332 yards in 2008. Baldwin will need to have a good year if the Cardinal hope to spread ball over the field due to the loss of Toby Gerhart.

Key Position Battles:

1.Cornerback, one of the weakest spots on the field for Stanford in 2009, will bring two players to the field who will play opposite of 5th year senior Richard Sherman. Corey Gatewood, who is listed as the starter, will be pushed from behind by Johnson Bademosi who saw the field more than Gatewood last year. Bademosi, being the more physical and athletic of the two, will have to re-assure his cover skills; he was beat most of the time last year. Look for Gatewood to start the season, and Bademosi to play in nickel situations.

2. The most intriguing position battle lies at the running back spot. With the loss of Heisman Trophy Winner* Toby Gerhart, the cardinal will return three very capable backups with Stephan Taylor taking the starting role. Taylor a scat back of sorts, rushed for a total of 303 yards last season. He will be followed by senior bruiser Jeremy Stewart, who was hampered by injuries last year. Stewart brings more physicality to the table, but doesn't have the burst that Taylor does. Getting into the mix is sophomore running back Taylor Gaffney who touched the ball a lot last year, but fumbled a ton, will see the football in 3rd and short situations. Don't be fooled though, Gaffney might be the most explosive of the three.

X-Factor:

Two words are needed for Stanford to be successful this season: Create Turnovers! The more Stanford has the ball, the more they score. The Cardinal ranked towards the bottom of the Pac in defense last year; due mostly to giving up big long plays. If the Card can create turnovers, the highly potent offense can put more points on the board than their opponents. If the Cardinal do not create turnovers, you can expect a mediocre season at best.

Fun Fact:

Ricky Seale, A freshman cornerback rushed for the most touchdowns in California High School State history this past season, will be used more on defense than on offense, interestingly enough.

Major Injuries:

No injuries will play a role in the starting spots for Stanford this season The only question mark is Andrew Luck’s thumb, which was repaired successfully.

3 certainties and 3 question marks:

Certainties:

1. Out Smarting the other team will be an absolute certainty this year.

2. Point scoring will not be an issue.

3. Being Physical to the point of the ball.

Question Marks:

1.Stanford is switching from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense this year, so how much of an impact will this have on one of the worst defenses in the Pac 10 last year?

2. Will Andrew Luck be able to carry the torch without Toby Gerhart?

3. Can the defense create more turnovers this season?

Schedule Toughness:

The schedule is fairly difficult this year with 5 away conference games and only 4 home conference games. Stanford is very good at home, only losing two games at home in the past two years combined. The Cardinal will also play Notre Dame and Oregon on the road, which is a test for any team. They also open their road schedule against the Bruins in the Rose Bowl.

Make-or-Break Game:

September 11^th @ UCLA.

I know you're probably wondering why such an early game would be a "Make or Break" game. It is very important because if Stanford doesn't come out on top against UCLA on September 11th, then you might as well write the season in the books as 6-6. It will also be played on ESPN in primetime and could be their biggest game of the year. Will Stanford be able to break the curse of not playing well on the road?

Key 3-game Stretch:

@Notre Dame, @Oregon, and vs. USC. If Stanford can take 2 out of 3 against these powers, I'd consider it a success. If they sweep, you can buy your tickets to the Rose Bowl. If they fall to win at least one game, then the Cardinal will be in serious trouble.

Most Challenging Half of the Season:

The First six games of the season, besides the ever so challenging Sacramento State to open up, are against: UCLA, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Oregon, and USC. If Stanford can come out of this stretch 4-2, then they will be in great shape. Anything worse than 3-3 after these games is still a success considering their second half doesn't really pose much of challenge.

Team Overview:

When you have a top 5 pick at QB, your team is in pretty good shape to make it to a bowl. Combine Luck with a solid offensive line, and the most underrated receiving tandem in the Pac-10, and you have the recipe for a major bowl game. The offensive line, anchored by 4 returning starters, will bring much-needed experience. Look for Coach Harbaugh to pass the ball a little more as a mature Andrew Luck starts his second year under center. Only throwing 4 interceptions last year, Luck will need to do much of the same in 2010. 20+ Touchdowns from Luck and you can consider this team a Rose Bowl Contender.

The defensive maturity and development will play an integral part in the season this year. The defensive line, which will be anchored by Sione Fua, will make for the D-Line to be the strongest point of the defense this season. The linebacking corps, led my all PAC-10 sophomore Shayne Skov, is looking very promising, but will the switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 help or hurt this team’s chances? Former defensive ends, Thomas Keiser and Chase Thomas, will move back into the linebacking corps this season. They will bring serious physical play to the table, something Pac-10 opponents should start getting used to with the up-and-coming Cardinal D.

Defensive Overview:

Led by former NFL defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio. The Cardinal Defense will be hoping to transform from a bottom feeder in the Pac-10 defense, to a more premier and elite unit. Running a new 3-4 defense, just implemented in the off season, will give the players a full 6 months to learn the new system. The defense which gave up 402 yards per game last season, ranked 90th in the country, will be looking to create more turnovers and play much more physical. One thing remains certain: the aggressiveness of Coach Jim Harbaugh and the hunger and energy his players feed off of. If you watched this team in the second half of the season, they were flying around the field. Led by Shayne Skov, who only started one half of the season, the defense will certainly step up the intensity and bring some serious attitude. The Cardinal will not blitz as much as they did last year, as they learned the hard way by leaving the middle of the field open against an already suspect secondary.

Front-4 Analysis:

Senior Sione Fua, the only returning starter in the defensive tackle spot, leads the strongest part of the Stanford Defense. On the end is CFL top 10 pick, Brian Bulke: an experienced interior lineman, who will need to create a good pass rush to overcome only having 3 down lineman in this formation. The strength of this Defensive Line would have to be its size. Fua, listed at 6-2 and 306 pounds, is an NFL body at nose guard. Bulke, 6-4, and 285 pounds certainly can compete with the guards of the PAC 10. Matt Masifilo playing on the other side of the line, injured for half of 2009, had 1 sack in 6 games for the cardinal. Defensive Line coach is looking Randy Hart is looking for depth from sophomores Josh Mauro, a hybrid type player can fill in at any time, as well as Terrance Stephens, who will see the field in place for Fua in case of injury or rest. The Cardinal front line will look to create a rush and sacks like any other line, but nothing sets them apart from any other pac 10 team, still with the defense, you can rate them a B.

Linebacker Analysis:

As many know, the defense revolves around Shayne Skov, who is a Pac-10 second team player of the year last season. 15 tackles against Oklahoma in the Sun Bowl gives you a good representation of how good he really can be. Two side player, Owen Marecic, will play opposite of Skov; two similar type players that can anchor the middle of the field and lay the wood. Chase Thomas and Thomas Keiser will control the outsides, both converted defensive ends will need to be able to cover slot receivers for this defense to be successful. Thomas who tallied 4 sacks last year at defensive end, will need to bring that rush to the corps this year. Keiser, a specimen in his own, can be a breakout type player if he reverts to his old ways as a D-end. Has 15 career sacks. Freshman Blake Lueders can expect to see the field this season at linebacker, as well as super senior Chike Amajoy, who is more than capable of stepping in for any one in the line backing corps, making this area of the field the one with the most depth.

Secondary Analysis:

The Secondary will again be the weakest part of the Stanford team this year. Returning two starters, losing Bo Mcnally to graduation. Converted cornerback Michael Thomas will need to step up in at the safety position. Bringing a physical style of play to the safety position, which will needed to make up for his small size. Delano Howell is the best player in the back for the cardinal, making 78 tackles last year. Brings another physical style, much like Thomas. The corners will be led by 5th year Senior Richard Sherman, who is more known to fans as an offensive player will be making his second year at CB, had 2 interceptions last year, he will need to sure up his cover skills, much like his opposite Corey Gatewood, both were beaten often last year, causing this secondary to be one of the worst in the nation. Depth in the Secondary will be a strong part though, Johnson Bademosi is another former starter who will be able to step in for either corner, and might even play some safety this year.

Offensive Overview:

The Stanford offense will more than likely throw the ball some more this year, losing Toby Gerhart to the NFL is more than enough to bring a great offense back down to earth. But Andrew Luck is good enough to lead this offense. The Offensive Line won't be losing much, only one player will be stepping in who didn't start last season. Giving up the 2nd least amount of sacks in the nation last season. Offensive Cordinator David Shaw is hoping that the offense can roll much like it did last year, racking up the most points in school history. Look out for a different variety of play calling, much less running and more throwing would seem reasonable will Luck at quarterback.

Quarterback Analysis:

You most likely have heard of Andrew Luck, if not then let me get you up to date, a redshirt sophomore, threw for 13 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions last year, more than likely considered the best quarterback in the Pac 10 ahead of Jake Locker. The depth at the position shouldn't be an issue, back up Josh Nunes and Robbie Picazo or capable of stepping in if Luck gets injured-Knocking on Wood-. 4 star recruit Brett Nottingham will more than take over the reigns if Luck takes off after this season. The best spot on the field this year will lie at the Quarterback. You can rank this group of players up there as some of the best in the country.

O-Line Analysis:

The offensive line lost only one starter from the '09 team. Who will be filled in by James Mcgillcuddy, who still saw some action last year. IF the line can have as much success as last season than this Cardinal offense will be up there as tops in the NCAA. Giving up the second least amount of sacks, only behind Boise State last year, more accustomed to giving up 30 plus sacks as indicated in past seasons. The offensive line is where you see the new brand of Stanford Football branching out. They call themselves the TWU, otherwise known as the tunnel workers union, opening up holes for Taylor instead of Gerhart will be there motto this season. Depth at the position is another plus, this allows for the coaches to plug and play in a sense, someone goes down, another comes in. 6'8 tackle Tyler Mabry, is the best back up, filling in at either left tackle or right if someone gets injured or in blowouts. I find no weakness in this offensive line to be honest, and thats a non biased opinion.

Wide Receiver/TE Analysis:

Former Walk On, Ryan Whalen is the best receiver, catching almost everything in sight. Possesses NFL smarts, getting open, and catching the ball cleanly is his forte. Opposite of him, a different type of receiver, a burner, in Chris Owusu. Plagued by drops last season, can stretch the field with his great speed. The Fastest receiver for Harbaugh's Cardinal. Lining up at tight end, is 6'6 Coby Fleener, look at him, and you will think he is a receiver with his size. Not known for his blocking will need to step in for a great blocker in Jim Dray who graduated this past season. Back up's include, Doug Baldwin, Jamal Rashad Patterson and Drew Terrel. All three will need to step up, to allow Whalen and Owusu to not be double teamed. This area of the ball is an important part for Stanford this year, they will need to stretch the field,more than in past seasons. Freshman tight end, Levine Toilolo, listed at 6'8, is a red zone threat. Throw it up and Pray, Should be the memo, when throwing to him.

Backfield Analysis:

Replacing Toby Gerhart will be incredibly challenging, he was more than likely up there in terms of greats. Filling in his shoes are all experienced backs. Stephan Taylor, who saw some action last year will be the leading rusher for the Cardinal, backing him up is Jeremy Stewart, hampered by injuries last year, the most resembling Toby Gerhart in his style of running. Tyler Gaffney, a talented two sport athlete in football and baseball, fumbled a ton last year, but isn't afraid to go head to head with linebackers, something that is needed to be a great back. Depth at the position places a close second behind quarterback. Freshman Anthony Wilkerson will see the field, another bruiser, and change of pace redshirt freshman Usua Amanan, a prototypical burner can spread the field, allowing for the only big threat on offense, something that this offense has missed this decade. He has the ability to score with every touch of the ball.

Special Teams Analysis:

Chris Owusu at one point returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown two straight games in a row. Owusu ranked 5th in total average on kickoff returns. The punt return ranked towards the bottom in NCAA at 77, only 7.6 yards on each return. Richard Sherman will most likely be taking punts back again this season, with Drew Terrel as the back up. Kicker Nate Whitaker, a Notre Dame Transfer, was 16-22 on field goals this past season. Also having 14 touchbacks on kickoffs. The special teams unit is another strong point, hopefully punting is something that will rarely happen, but David Green averaged more than 40 yards on punts last year.

Team Schedule: (include home or away and dates)

vs. Sacramento State

Sep. 11 at UCLA *

Sep. 18 vs. Wake Forest

Sep. 25 at Notre Dame

Oct. 2 at Oregon Sat *

Oct. 9 vs. USC *

Oct. 23 vs. Washington State (Homecoming) *

Oct. 30 at Washington*

Nov. 6 vs. Arizona *

Nov. 13 at Arizona State *

Nov. 20 at California *

Nov. 27 vs. Oregon State*

*Pac 10 Game

Final Conference Standings:

1.Oregon (9-0)

2.Stanford (8-1)

3.USC (7-2)

4.Oregon State (6-3)

5.Arizona (5-4)

6.Washington (4-5)

7.California (3-6)

8.UCLA (2-7)

9.Arizona State (1-8)

10.Washington State (0-9)

Best Case Scenario:

Rose Bowl or Bust. Thats the way I see it. If things fall into place, this Cardinal team has the makings to be the best this Decade. Andrew Luck throws for 3500 yards and 27 touchdowns. The Defense steps up and ranks 17 in total defense. Stanford finally finds an identity, losing only to Oregon. They demolish USC, and Beat Notre Dame in there place. Stanford finds itself in the Rose Bowl, and Andrew Luck decides to stay for his junior season. This is not a pipe dream, I repeat is not. Stanford was three plays away for being 10-2 last season. And the way I see it, this current team is more balanced and better.

Worst Case Scenario:

Stanford falls in its first road game at UCLA, setting off a domino effect. They lose two out of there next three, sitting at 2-3 through 5 games. They get ran over by USC at home, 2-4 now, after coming home from Washington, they are 3-5, needing to beat the Arizona's they do. 5-5 going into the last two games, losing to Kal, but keeping there bowl season alive against Oregon State. 6-6 and in some low tier bowl game. Andrew Luck leaves after the season, and Jim Harbaugh is hired as head coach at Michigan. Did I wake up from my bad dream yet?

By:

Stanford Guru (John Buchman)

Email me at: Stanford.guru@pac10guru.com

Upcoming Article: “Team Breakdown: Cal Bears.”

Followed by: “Team Breakdown: UCLA Bruins.”

Team Breakdown: Washington Huskies

2010-08-03T22:25:00.000-07:00

By:

Washington Guru: Tim Huddleston

Email me at: Washington.guru@pac10guru.com

Washington Huskies

Pre-Season Sporting News Ranking:

Last year overall record (conf and overall):

5-7 (4-5)

Bowl Game (victor or loser):

N/A

Trending up, down or flat:

Total Returning Starters:

14Total: 8 on offense, 6 on defense

Key Returnees:

Jake Locker – Senior, QB; Chris Polk – Sophomore, RB; Jermaine Kearse – Junior, WR; Mason Foster – Senior, LB

Key Losses:

Donald Butler, Daniel Te’o-Nesheim

Key Incoming Transfers:

Although, not a transfer in the truest sense of the word because he never suited up for the UCLA Bruins before joining the Husky Team, Josh Shirley could provide an immediate impact to the linebacking corps. A marquee recruit that originally considered UW, Shirley could be a tremendous late addition for the Dawgs.

Key Incoming Freshmen:

Nick Montana, QB – Joe Montana’s son will battle in fall camp for the back-up role behind Jake Locker. If he wins the job, the Huskies may find themselves with a true freshman under center if the unthinkable happens and Locker becomes unavailable.

Victor Burnett, LB – Along with Shirley, could be another early contributor to an inexperienced group of linebackers

Deontae Cooper, RB – A January enrollee who opened a lot of eyes during spring practice, Cooper could find himself in line to spell incumbent starter, Chris Polk.

Jamaal Kearse, LB – Joining his brother on the team, the immensely talented Kearse could play a number of positions. A receiver and safety in college, Kearse has bulked up and is in the mix for possible playing time at linebacker.

Players Ready for a Breakout Season:

Senio Kelemete, LT, Jr. – Get used to this name because Senio could very well become a highly touted left tackle prospect over the next two years.

Desmond Trufant, CB, So. – It could be argued that Trufant broke out as a true freshman last year, but expect him to take another step, possibly into national prominence as a sophomore. He showed all the skills and moxie needed from a corner at the collegiate level.

Players who need to step up this season:

Chris Izbicki, TE, Jr. – Izbicki may have fit into this category based on his performance compared to his recruiting ranking regardless, but the dismissal of Kavario Middleton has further magnified his role. Considered a better blocker than Middleton, Izbicki may have become the starter either way, but he’ll need to establish himself more as a reliable receiving threat.

Jake Locker, QB, Sr. - It’s hard to call a Heisman candidate and potential number one NFL draft pick a letdown, but hear me out. Locker came into the program as something of a savior; a local hero sure to return the Huskies back to the glory days. To date, he has yet to lead the team to a bowl game or a winning record. The pressure will be on this year to fulfill his unlimited potential and keep the UW program trending up.

Key Position Battles:

Strong Side Linebacker – Who will line up on the strong side next to Cort Dennison is anyone’s guess. The candidates included a converted safety (Victor Aiyewa) a senior with minimal game experience (Matt Houston), and a slew of freshmen (Shirley, Burnett and Kearse). None of the options instills a great deal of confidence, but the competition should elevate the level of play.

Back-Up QB – I can’t understate how much Husky fans want this “battle” to be a non issue this season. In a perfect world, neither Keith Price nor Nick Montana will see significant playing time this year. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to watch to see if one player gains an edge over the other since these two are likely to be battling for the starting job for the next few years.

CB – Desmond Trufant is entrenched as a starter on one side. Who will start opposite him remains to be seen. Up and coming sophomore Adam Long outplayed and unseated veterans Vonzell McDowell and Quinton Richardson last year. The three of them will duke it out to see who starts, but look for all three to contribute in nickel and dime situations.

X-Factor:

The 2010 Husky football team carries with them something unseen in Seattle for quite some time: expectations. Coming off an 0-12 season, very little was expected from Coach Sarkisian’s first season. Now that they have had a modicum of success and their QB has received national attention, how will UW fare now that they won’t sneak up on anyone?

Fun Fact:

On July 24, 2010, Jake Locker’s hometown of Ferndale, Washington celebrated “Jake Locker Day”. The town annually holds an Old Settlers Picnic and Parade. This year, Jake was on hand for the festivities and rode through the parade route on a fire truck with a few teammates.

Major Injuries:

While neither of them is facing extremely serious injuries, the health of defensive ends Talia Crichton and Kalani Aldrich is something to keep an eye on. If either of those two faces lingering health concerns, the depth on the defensive line could be extremely suspect.

3 certainties and 3 question marks:

Certainties:

1) The UW offense will score plenty of points. The combination of Locker, loaded skill positions, a solid line and a second year in coach Sark’s system should produce a prolific offense.

2) Husky stadium will be loud. Optimism among UW fans is once again high following a stretch of down years. The environment on September 18 when Nebraska comes to town will be electric.

3) The 2010 Husky football team is bowl bound. While a trip to Pasadena is not likely to be in the cards, Husky fans should be looking at a trip to a destination like El Paso, San Antonio or Vegas this winter.

Question Marks:

1) Can the defense get enough stops? The defense will have to show marked improvement over last year to help the offense and not force them into a shoot-out every week.

2) Will Jake Locker be a Heisman finalist? The East Coast media tour is complete and the hype machine is humming along. The time is now for Locker to live up to the hype on the field.

3) Can UW beat Oregon? The border rivalry between these two programs has gotten progressively more heated over the years, but the Ducks have been dominant recently.

Schedule Toughness:

The Dawgs’ schedule is unfavorable at best. For a team that struggled badly on the road last year; trips to BYU, USC, Oregon, Arizona, Cal and a potentially snowy WSU cannot be a welcome sight. Games against BYU and Syracuse are winnable, but closing out the non-conference slate against Nebraska will be a true test of whether or not UW is ready to play with the big boys.

Make-or-Break Game:

October 16, Oregon State. A home game against a team that blew out the Huskies last season will be a key factor in whether or not the Huskies are ready to take the leap to becoming a bowl team.

Key 3-game Stretch:

October 16 - Oregon State (home), October 23 - at Arizona, October 30 - Stanford (home). In a conference as competitive as the Pac 10, several teams have designs on being a sleeper team to win the league. These three opponents, along with UW, represent those teams. These three weeks in October are likely to determine the Dawgs’ place in the conference.

Most Challenging Half of the Season:

The First Half. With games against BYU and USC on the road and home games against Nebraska and Oregon State, the Huskies need to be ready early. A trip to Autzen Stadium in the second half almost makes it a push.

Team Overview:

The Turnaround on Montlake came much quicker than anyone could have expected in Steve Sarkisian’s first year as head coach. Going from 0-12 to 5-7 in just one year was impressive to say the least and it has fans ready for more. A fan base that has suffered through several lean years is now expecting the program to take another jump to the next level. UW has made big splashes in recruiting and has a quarterback that now has national cachet. Clearly steps are being taken towards restoring the Dawgs to the heights the program was accustomed to. Will the 2010 season be just another step in the right direction or is this team already prepared to announce its arrival and start piling up wins?

Defensive Overview:

The Husky defense gave up 30 points or more 6 times last year. They gave up 40+ in two of those games. These are not statistics typically associated with a Nick Holt defense, but the talent on the defensive side of the ball hasn’t come around as quickly as the offense. With the talent and explosive ability the offense has, the defense won’t need to be elite. The defense will lock up wins by coming up with stops at critical moments in games. If they are unable to do so, the offense will be asked to carry the load time and again in high scoring affairs. Replacing two outstanding players among the front seven in Te’o-Nesheim and Butler will be critical. Mason Foster will be the lynchpin in that regard. He’ll be surrounded by young talent that will need to come of age quickly.

Front-4 Analysis:

The front 4 figure to be strong up the middle with starters Alameda Ta’amu and Cameron Elisara returning at the tackle positions. Elisara could even see time on the end with sophomore Semisi Tokolahi rotating in. Questions come at defensive end, where Kalani Aldrich, Talia Crichton and Everette Thompson will be asked to pressure the QB and hold the edge. Seemingly a formidable rotation, there are some red flags due to injury. Aldrich and Thompson both missed spring ball, but should be ready for fall. As it stands now, the front four is a question mark. If Aldrich and Thompson are unable to shake their injury problems, the defensive line will become a huge concern.

Linebacker Analysis:

If you’re looking for a full-fledged weakness on this team, look no further than the linebacking corps. While Mason Foster is a legitimate talent, there are concerns virtually everywhere else in the unit. The recent loss of projected starter Alvin Logan virtually ensured that a freshman (either: Josh Shirley, Victor Burnett or perhaps Jamaal Kearse) will be competing for a starting role. Cort Dennison is a fairly pedestrian option at Middle Linebacker. Jordan Wallace is a versatile option that can play all three positions and will likely be the go-to guy if any starters come out.

Secondary Analysis:

There is plenty of talent to go around in the secondary, which should lead to an interesting competition when fall camp opens. Desmond Trufant’s name can be put in ink as one starter at corner. The other starter could be any of three players: Senior Vonzell McDowell and Junior Quinton Richardson are experienced, but were both surpassed last season by sophomore Adam Long. If McDowell and Richardson are pushed to reach the potential with which they arrived, this could be a very deep unit.

Offensive Overview:

Head coach Steve Sarkisian cut his teeth as quarterbacks coach and offense coordinator at USC. His credentials there speak volumes and if his first year at UW is any indication, he’s continuing to build on that success. Along with offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, “Coach Sark” has embarked on the project of turning gifted athlete Jake Locker into polished quarterback Jake Locker. That project went well enough in year one to make Locker a potential future number 1 pick in the NFL draft. Further progression in year two could make this offense downright scary. It doesn’t hurt that he is surrounded by formidable talent at every other position in the offense. Expect big plays on the ground and in the air and plenty of points from this offense. To fully translate into overall success, the offense will have to shake bouts of inconsistency that plagued them last season.

Quarterback Analysis:

What more can be said about Locker? He’s really big, really fast and has one really great right arm. There have been very few players at the position with his physical gifts, if any. His accuracy showed improvement last year, but Locker will have to avoid his occasional errant throws to truly fulfill his immense promise. The back-up position will be manned by a freshman. Redshirt frosh Keith Price and true freshman/Golden Boy Nick Montana will compete this fall to compete for the right to be the man that Husky fans hope never ever has to play this season. In a best-case scenario, Price would come in only for mop up duty while Montana preserves his redshirt.

O-Line Analysis:

The O-Line returns three starters in junior LT Senio Kelemete, senior LG Ryan Tolar and senior RT Cody Habben. Husky coaches feel that Kelemete has unlimited potential and is a superstar in the making. The line combinations and positions have fluctuated at times and coaches hope that they can find a unit that works to stick with. Sophomores Drew Schaefer and Mykenna Ikehara at center and guard respectively project to round out the starting unit, but senior Greg Christine is returning from injury an figures to challenge Ikehara.

Wide Receiver/TE Analysis:

The wide receiver group is considered one of the nation’s best. Led by junior Jermaine Kearse, it is a unit that is as deep as it is talented. Junior Devin Aguilar and sophomore James Johnson combined for 81 catches last season, with Johnson in particular showing flashes of tremendous big play ability. Senior D’Andre Goodwin caught 60 passes in 2008, but fell off and was surpassed in the depth chart last season. A bounce back year from him would just add to how dangerous this group could be. The loss of the highly touted Kavario Middleton hurts, particularly in the passing game. Another big name recruit, Chris Izbicki will start. Who is back-up will be is in flux and will be closely watched when fall camp opens.

Backfield Analysis:

Chris Polk surprised just about everyone, including Husky fans, last season with a punishing running style that amassed 1,113 yards, good for seventh best in school history. Johri Fogerson and Demitrius Bronson are the incumbent back-ups, but the most additional production could come from freshman Deontae Cooper. Fellow early enrollee Jesse Callier could be in the mix as well.

Special Teams Analysis:

Both specialists: junior kicker Erik Folk and senior punter Will Mahan, return after productive 2009 seasons. The Dawgs feel comfortable with the reliable production they expect from this pair.

Team Schedule:

Sept. 4 - @BYU

Sept. 11 – Syracuse

Sept 18 – Nebraska

Oct. 2 - @USC

Oct. 9 – Arizona State

Oct. 16 – Oregon State

Oct. 23 - @ Arizona

Oct. 30 – Stanford

Nov. 6 - @Oregon

Nov. 13 – UCLA

Nov. 27 - @ California

Dec. 4 - @ Washington State

Best Case Scenario:

“The winner of the Heisman Trophy is Jake Locker, quarterback, University of Washington”. While an individual award is not normally the best case scenario for an entire program, it is for the 2010 Huskies. If Jake does take home the Heisman, it will mean that he fulfilled his enormous potential personally, but it will also mean that the Dawgs won enough games to be nationally prominent. In the best case, the season would kick off by beating local kid Jake Heaps at BYU. Surely, there would be some extra satisfaction in such a feat among several players on the UW roster. A win against Syracuse the following week could potentially set-up a College Gameday visit at Husky stadium with Nebraska coming to town. A win in that game will really stoke the flames and get U-Dub fans into a frenzy. Such a start would vault the Dawgs to a near-certain bowl appearance. With trips to USC and Oregon on the schedule, a Pac 10 championship seems too lofty for even a best case scenario. An Alamo or Holiday bowl appearance would be a tremendous result for the program.

Worst Case Scenario:

I hate to pin the hopes of an entire team so exclusively on one player, but realistically the words “high ankle sprain” put next to Jake Locker’s name could be all it takes to derail this season. If an injury occurs during week 1 while the aforementioned Heaps is throwing TD’s against a suspect Husky defense, the young Huskies will really be put to the test. Of course, no UW related worst case scenario would be complete without picturing an Apple Cup loss on a snowy December day in Pullman. Should such a disaster strike, Husky fans should be quick to remind themselves that they are only two years removed from a winless season. Regardless of how 2010 plays out, this is a program on the rise.

My Final Conference Standings Predictions:

1. Oregon

2. USC

3. Stanford

4. Arizona

5. Washington

6. Oregon State

7. UCLA

8. California

9. Washington State

10. Arizona State

By:

Washington Guru: Tim Huddleston

Email me at: Washington.guru@pac10guru.com

Upcoming Article: “Team Breakdown: Stanford Cardinal”

Followed By: “Team Breakdown: California Golden Bears”

Team Breakdown: Oregon State Beavers

2010-08-01T22:43:00.000-07:00

By:

Oregon State Guru (Andy Orear)

Email me at: osu.guru@pac10guru.com

Oregon State Beavers

Pre-Season Sporting News Ranking:

Last year overall record :

8-5 (6-3)

Bowl Game (victor or loser):

Las Vegas Bowl: Lost to BYU 44-20

Trending up, down or flat:

Flat

Total Returning Starters:

16 (Eight on offense, eight on defense)

Key Returnees:

RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Junior. 5”-7”, 188 lbs. 1,440 yards rushing, 78 receptions, 22 touchdowns. 2009 semi-finalist for the Doak Walker Award, Maxwell Award and Walter Camp Player of the Year.

WR James Rodgers, Senior. 5’-7”, 188 lbs. 91 receptions, 1,034 yards receiving, 9 touchdowns. 2010 Biletnikoff Award preseason candidate.

DT Stephen Paea, Junior. 6’-1”, 311 lbs. 43 tackles, 8.5 for lost yardage. Co-recipient of 2009 Morris Trophy as Pac-10’s top defensive lineman. 2010 Outland, Nagurski, Lott Trophy and Rotary Lombardi watch list(s).

OT Michael Phillip, Sophomore. 6’-3”, 307 lbs. Started 12 games as a true freshman in 2009, named Freshman All-American by Phil Steele’s and College Football News.com.

Key Losses:

QB Sean Canfield

WR Damola Adnejii

LB Keaton Kristick

LB David Pa’aluhi

Key Incoming Transfers:

Defensive Coordinator Mark Banker is hoping newcomer Dominic Glover from Saddleback CC can help with the pass rush. Glover started his career with Oregon before transferring to Saddleback. Glover is 6”5”, 270 lbs. and has two years of eligibility remaining.

Key Incoming Freshman:

Not many true freshmen will see action in 2010 barring injury. RS FR Cody Vaz will back up starting QB Ryan Katz. Look for Terron Ward from De La Salle High School (Concord, CA) to emerge in 2011 as a key back up and eventual replacement for Quizz. Ward is small in stature, but he is a tough and capable runner in the mold of Jacquizz Rodgers.

Players Ready for a Breakout Season:

TE Joe Halahuni, Junior – Emerged in the second half of the season in 2009 to catch 25 passes for 3 touchdowns. Look for him on third downs this season.

WR Jordan Bishop, Sophomore – In 2009, Canfield did an excellent job of spreading out the receptions. As such, players like Bishop and Markus Wheaton went without much notice. Bishop was very consistent last year and will play a bigger role in 2010 with the graduation of Adeniji.

C Alex Linnenkohl, Senior – 2010 Rimington Trophy watch list.

Players who Need to Step it up this Season:

MLB Tony Wilson, Sophomore – When returning starter Pa’aluhi enlisted in the military, Wilson was thrust into into the starting role earlier than expected and will be pressed by sophomore Rueben Robinson. OSU churns out productive MLB’s and will need big production from Wilson in the middle.

S Lance Mitchell, Junior – Lance, if you bring down Jeramiah Masoli on fourth down in the fourth quarter of last year’s Civil War, the ball goes back into the hands of a red hot Sean Canfield against a very tired Oregon defense with time on the clock, and…who knows? The guy carrying the ball needs to go down on his rear end, not you.

Key Position Battles:

MLB: Tony Wilson and Rueben Robinson – Hard to imagine no drop off after losing the productive David Pa’aluhi to the military.

WR: Darrell Catchings and Markus Wheaton – Catchings is back for his senior year, but expect to see a lot of the athletic sophomore Wheaton.

X-Factor:

QB Ryan Katz, Sophomore. Katz steps into an experienced offensive line, depth at receiver and a Heisman Trophy candidate at running back. His 2010 season will be a success if he can stay healthy, manage games effectively, and avoid big mistakes.

Fun Fact:

OSU has gone into the final game of the last two seasons with a trip to Pasadena on the line. This kind of championship contention is a great sign for the program, but they need to beat their rivals in Eugene to finally emerge as conference champs.

Major Injuries:

OLB Keith Pankey, Senior – Coming back from a ruptured achilles tendon, but head coach Mike Riley has recently commented he will be good to go for the 2010 season.

3 certainties and 3 question marks:

Certainties:

1. The Rodgers brothers: Productive seasons from their two offensive stars will result in a good outcome to the season.

2. Coaching staff: As the rest of the league turns things over, Riley quietly becomes the dean of PAC 10 coaching and consistently holds his staff together. Riley’s challenge in 2010 is proving he can beat Chip Kelly in the biggest game of the year.

3. Kicking game: Three year starters in Justin Kahut at K and Johnny Hekker at P gives needed stability.

Question Marks:

1. Inexperience at QB: It has been proven difficult to win in the PAC 10 without consistent play at the QB position. Ryan Katz is athletic but lacks experience.

2. Early season schedule: With two road games in the first three weeks against top 10 opponents, the Beavers can make their season. They need to avoid injuries and not put Katz in a position of trying to win games coming from behind.

3. The Secondary: The Beavs have experience, but are without a proven leader in the secondary. They have also not gotten much help in the way of a pass rush. They will be tested by Kellen Moore early in the season at Boise State, as well as a slew of talented PAC 10 QBs throughout the season.

Schedule Toughness:

The Beavers have a very tough schedule early on with visits to Cowboys Stadium to play TCU and Boise State with the blue turf. The Beavers are known for starting slow, so two road trips to national powers in the first three weeks looks challenging. Early season conference games at Arizona and Washington will be tough tests against emerging programs. The good news is having USC and the Ducks at home; the bad news is that these teams are still USC and still the Ducks wherever you play them.

Make-or-Break Game:

At Arizona on 10/9: The Beavs lost their PAC 10 opener last year at home to Arizona; they need a big win like this early on the schedule to build confidence on the team and in the stands.

Key 3-game Stretch:

A lot is made of the non-conference schedule, but the last three games of the year – USC at home, at Stanford, and Oregon at home - will determine the outcome of the season. Three wins in that stretch likely equates to a trip to Pasadena on January 1.

Most Challenging Half of the Season:

The first half looks worse on paper, but the fact is; losses at TCU in Dallas and at BSU do nothing to the Beavers hopes for a conference championship. The Beaver’s home stretch is as tough as any in the conference.

Team Overview:

The Beavers have experience on both sides of the ball and a great collection of individual talent. The Rodgers brothers and Stephen Paea are pre-season All Americans. With the 2009 campaign dominated by Jacquizz and James Rodgers, it is easy to overlook how important Sean Canfield was to this team last year. He completed three quarters of this throws and kept the Beavers in every game they played. Incoming QB Ryan Katz will not be expected to perform at the same level, but he must avoid costly mistakes. Defensively, the Beavers are lead by DT Stephen Paea, but they must also get outside pressure on the QB to give their secondary a chance. A steady performance by the defense will allow the Beaver offense to control the ball and allow Katz to develop.

Defensive Overview:

Coordinator Mark Banker consistently blends youth and experience into a good result for Oregon State. DT Stephen Paea is the anchor, but he will have help. Gabe Miller is a returning starter at DE who must help the Beavers pass rush improve in 2010. At linebacker, the Beavers return Dwight Roberson and Keith Pankey on the outside; provided Pankey is 100% after off-season achilles surgery. The secondary is experienced with James Dockery and Brandon Hardin on the corners, and Lance Mitchell and Cameron Collins at safety. If the pass rush improves and there is not too much pressure on the corners, expect Mitchell and Collins to develop into the type of safety we have seen at OSU in the past with Al Afalava and Sabby Piscatelli.

Front-4 Analysis:

Paea will attract attention inside, so expect the ends and OLBs to be tested early. Brennan Olander is a returning starter and big things are expected from newcomer Dominic Glover. If they Beavers can establish a pass rush, this unit will be a strength.

Linebacker Analysis:

David Pa’ahuli would have been a pre-season all conference pick at MLB, so his loss is a concern. However, playing behind Stephen Paea should make life easier for Tony Wilson or Ruben Robinson. OLB Dwight Roberson is a returning starter and the Beavers are hoping Pankey is 100%.

Secondary Analysis:

All four starters have experience, but their job is difficult with no pressure on the opposing QB. If the Beavers can rush the passer, the corners can function more independently and the safeties can make big plays. Again, if the Beavers can rush the passer, this is an experienced secondary that should be able to withstand seeing Kellen Moore, Nick Foles, Jake Locker, Matt Barkey, and Andrew Luck.

Offensive Overview:

Coordinator Danny Langsdorf will give the ball put the ball in the hands of James and Jaquizz Rodgers until someone can stop them. Jaquizz has 2,693 career rushing yards and 32 career touchdowns going into his junior year. New QB Ryan Katz will also have an experienced O line and a stable of talented receivers. It will be interesting to see who much Langsdorf gives Katz early on, but expect a steady diet of Quizz and James and hope neither misses time.

Quarterback Analysis

Both of Katz’s predecessors – Canfield and Lyle Moeveo – made season-altering mistakes early in their careers. Hopefully Katz’s first season is mostly handing the ball to Quizz and making high percentage throws. The defense can help greatly by not putting Katz in a position of trailing late in the game and trying to win the game with long passes downfield. Depth is a little thin as Peter Lalich recently left the team, leaving RS FR Cody Vaz as back up.

O-Line Analysis

The O-Line Should be a strength with all-conference candidates Michael Phillip at LT and Alex Linnenkhol at center. Phillip was a blue chip recruit for the Beavers a year ago and was put into the lineup earlier than expected; he more than exceeded the coaches expectations. Barring injury, Phillip could leave OSU in two years as a high NFL draft choice. Mike Remmers is a returning starter at RT, while juniors- Grant Johnson and Burke Ellis- have seen action.

Wide Receiver/TE Analysis:

Not perceived as a pre-season strength, but the OSU receiving corps has plenty of depth to go along with James Rodgers. Wide Receivers: Darrell Catchings, Jordan Bishop, and Markus Wheaton all have the size and speed to test Pac-10 secondaries. Joe Halahuni will play TE and the slot position; he proved to be a big weapon down the stretch in 2009. This group should give newcomer, Ryan Katz, a chance to emerge at QB.

Backfield Analysis:

The strength of the team, led by Heisman hopeful Jacquizz Rodgers. When Quizz went down two years ago at Arizona and missed the Civil War, you saw the weaknesses it exposed. The Beavs need to keep him healthy, which could be challenge against TCU and BSU, games which will require Quizz to carry the load. Often overlooked is Quizz’s ability as a receiver, last year he had 78 receptions. Sophomore Jovan Stephenson and Senior Ryan McCants will provide adequate backup, but there is no replacement for The Quizz Show.

Special Teams Analysis:

Special teams should be a strength with kicker Justin Kahut and punter Johnny Hekker coming into their third years as starters. James Rogers and Jordan Bishop will makes things exciting on returns.

Team Schedule:

9/4 vs. TCU (Dallas)

9/18 vs. Louisville

9/25 at Boise State

10/1 vs. Arizona State

10/9 @ Arizona

10/16 @ Washington

10/30 vs. California

11/6 @ UCLA

11/13 vs. Washington State

11/20 vs. USC

11/27 @ Stanford

12/4 vs. Oregon

Best Case Scenario:

The advantage of the tough non-conference schedule, is that wins at TCU and BSU vault the Beavers into the top 5 and put Jacquizz Rodgers at the head of the Heisman race. The Beavers can survive an early season conference loss to either Arizona or Washington on the road to then run the table the rest of the way. The Rose Bowl berth again comes down to the Civil War. This time the Beavers have home field advantage and a healthy starting lineup; they win in OT. Pack your bags for Pasadena.

Worst Case Scenario:

Easy prediction: no Rodgers brothers means anything doing for OSU. If Jacquizz and/or James goes down to an early injury, the Beavs might struggle to get to .500. Ryan Katz needs stability in his break-in year. OSU cannot rely on him to win games by himself. The starting lineup for the Beavers will compete with every team in the conference, but a couple of injuries to key players and the Beavers will struggle.

My Final Conference Standings Predictions:

1. Oregon State

2. USC

3. Oregon

4. Arizona

5. California

6. Stanford

7. Washington

8. UCLA

9. Arizona State

10. Washington State

By:

Oregon State Guru (Andy Orear)

Email me at: osu.guru@pac10guru.com

Upcoming Article: “Team Breakdown: Washington Huskies”

Followed By: “Team Breakdown: Stanford Cardinal”

Team Breakdown: Oregon Ducks

2010-07-31T00:18:00.001-07:00

by:
Oregon Guru (Evan Kincl)
Email me at: oregon.guru@pac10guru.com

Oregon Ducks

Pre-Season Sporting News Ranking:

Last year overall record:

10-3 (8-1)

Bowl Game:

Rose Bowl: Lost to Ohio State 26-17

Trending up, down or flat:

Anywhere from flat to slightly up.

Total Returning Starters:

17 (9 offense, 8 defense)

Key Returnees:

HB LaMichael James (1,546 yards rushing, 14 rush TDs)

WR Jeff Maehl (53 catches for 696 yards and 6 TDs)

DE Kenny Rowe (11.5 sacks)

CB Talmadge Jackson (4 INTs)

FS John Boyett (90 tackles, 3 INTs)

Oregon also returns the entire offensive line from a unit that ranked 7^th in the country in rushing, and only allowed 14 sacks.

Key Losses:

QB Jeremiah Masoli

TE Ed Dickson

CB Walter Thurmond

FS TJ Ward

DE Will Tukuafu

Key Incoming Transfers:

TE Brandon Williams: A JUCO transfer that has impressed in Spring practices and looks to see a lot of playing time.

Key Incoming Freshman:

RB Lache Seastrunk: A lightning fast kid from Texas could enter the year as a primary kick returner, could easily see a few touches on offense as well.

WR/RB Josh Huff: Enters fall camp taking a lot of snaps at the Tazer position, a flex WR/RB spot. His speed and versatility could get him on the field early.

Players Ready for a Breakout Season:

QB Darron Thomas: Reminds a lot of coaches of former Oregon QB Dennis Dixon. Has a tough task of replacing Jeremiah Masoli, but only if he wins the starting job over Sr. Nate Costa in fall camp.

WR Jeff Maehl: Although he was Oregon’s leading receiver last year, he’s hardly a household name. Expect that to change, as Maehl and his steady hands came on strong at the end of last season and he should challenge for All Pac-10 recognition in his senior year.

CB Cliff Harris: Harris, only a sophomore, spent last season mostly as a reserve due to his perceived lack of discipline and tackling ability. When he made it onto the field, he often looked like the best corner Oregon had in years; and with Walter Thurmond III graduated, he could challenge for a wide open starting corner spot.

Players who need to step up this season:

WR DJ Davis: Davis isn’t necessarily a bad player, but injuries have really disrupted the career of this talented former 4-star. He only has 31 career catches, which he’ll need to match or exceed this year alone in order to have the impact needed from a starting wideout.

Key Position Battles:

QB- Easily the biggest issue with this team. Sr. Nate Costa is listed as the starter right now, but coach Chip Kelly says he and the more mobile Darron Thomas are about equal.

CB- Talmadge Jackson III has the first spot locked down, but any one of So. Cliff Harris, Sr. Anthony Gildon, Fr. Terrance Mitchell, or Fr. Avery Patterson could step in and see significant time in this spot.

X-Factor:

The QB play: This team is loaded with talent and was an early pre-season #4 before Jeremiah Masoli got kicked off the team. If whoever replaces him plays well, this team has serious Pac-10 championship aspirations, and possibly more.

Fun Fact:

Oregon typically uses more uniform combinations in one season than most teams will go through in an entire decade.

Major Injuries:

None.

3 certainties and 3 question marks:

Certainties:

1) Offensive line play: Oregon returns the entire offensive line two-deep from a very strong unit a year ago.

2) Running Backs: With a returning 1^st team All Pac-10 pick in LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner, his lightning fast backup who is also a premier return man, a steady senior in Remene Alston, and two top-15 RBs for incoming freshman (Lache Seastrunk and Dontae Williams), this is easily the deepest position on the team.

3) Another trip to a bowl game: You can book it right now; the Oregon Ducks will be attending another bowl game this year. With a team this talented, an FCS opponent AND Wazzu on the schedule, you can bet your life savings on this happening.

Question Marks:

1) Quarterback play: Again, here we are talking about the quarterbacks. I don’t want to bore everyone with this subject, but this team can only reach its goals if they receive good play from whoever wins the QB job.

2) Expectations: Last year, not many people saw Oregon as a serious threat to Pac-10 king USC, especially after the loss to Boise St. They thrived all year on bouncing back from adversity, but it will be interesting to see how they deal with having a target on their backs.

3) Defense: Nick Aliotti has had some good defenses over the years, but for Oregon to take the next step, his defenses will have to come close to the dominance of Chip Kelly’s offense. There is certainly enough returning talent for that to be so. Oregon lost the Stanford game as well as the Rose Bowl because they couldn’t get the opposing offense off the field. If that happens again this season, Aliotti could be in trouble.

Schedule Toughness:

Oregon only gets 4 Pac-10 games at home, and has 5 on the road, including Cal, Oregon State, and USC. They also have an interesting and potentially difficult away game against Tennessee with new coach Derek Dooley. This does not make for a very favorable schedule for a team that thrives on a raucous Autzen crowd. Luckily, they get to face FCS opponent Portland State, New Mexico, and have one road game at WSU.

Make-or-Break Game:

Sat. Oct. 2 vs. Stanford: This game will show whether Oregon is truly a championship caliber team, because if a tough Stanford team comes in and knocks them off for the second year in a row (at home this time), things don’t bode well for their Pac-10 hopes.

Key 3-Game Stretch:

Oct. 30^th to Nov. 13^th: USC, UW, Cal. What more needs to be said? These are three of the projected top teams in the Pac-10; how Oregon fares during this stretch could determine their outcome in the conference.

Most Challenging Half of the Season:

By far, the second half of the season will be the toughest. The first half includes games against WSU, New Mexico, Portland State, and Arizona State. Almost all of the top Pac-10 teams are scheduled for late season showdowns, which could determine the conference race.

Team Overview: Oregon returns a supremely talented team that won 10 games a year ago. Most experts have the Ducks pegged for another trip to Rose Bowl, and I’m inclined to agree. There is simply too much returning talent at key positions with the only real question being quarterback play. But with star tailback LaMichael James and a veteran offensive line, the new QB’s job should be a lot easier than at most schools. Regardless of who plays in his system, head coach Chip Kelly has always put points on the board. The defense has been less reliable, but plays with passion, and has more talent this year than most. Although there are a few questions, there are certainly more answers.

Defensive Overview:

Oregon runs an aggressive 4-3 defense with a few 3-4 sets mixed in. Longtime defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti likes to bring heavy pressure to disrupt running lanes and make the opposing offense one-dimensional. He also favors a smaller, faster lineup on the field that allows him to keep up with no huddle offenses with minimal substitutions. This approach has been met with varied success over his career. But for the most part last year the defense was solid, with their stats inflated by having an offense that scored at the speed of light.

Front-4 Analysis:

Oregon returns DT Brandon Bair and DE Kenny Rowe on the defensive line, a defense which performed decently last year. It remains an average group until they find a complementary pass-rusher to Rowe, who was outstanding with 11.5 sacks last year. The depth is not very good, but freshman Ricky Heimuli has a ton of talent and could see early action.

Linebacker Analysis:

This is easily the strongest group of the defense. They return Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews who have both been consistent starters. Coaches view the talent on the depth chart to be so deep that they moved Eddie Pleasant (a starter last year) over to safety. Highly touted former 4-star JUCO transfer Bryson Littlejohn is expected to start in his place.

Secondary Analysis:

This unit has the potential to be one of the best in the conference if players step up and play to their talents. Talmadge Jackson is solid at one corner spot, while FS John Boyett earned freshman All-America honors last year. Starting SS Eddie Pleasant was a very good LB who the coaches felt comfortable moving to safety. Versatile All Pac-10 honoree Javes Lewis also returns. The coaches have done a good job of bringing in great recruits in the secondary the past few years; if some of those players can step up and play well, this group can be very good.

Offensive Overview:

Oregon runs a no-huddle run-based spread offense. Offensive Coordinator Mark Helfrich has the title, but the offense is really Head Coach Chip Kelly’s brainchild. He likes to wear his opponents out with a variety of plays that utilize the speed and conditioning of his players. Ever since Kelly arrived on campus as the offensive coordinator, he has had this offense rolling at maximum efficiency. With 9 starters returning, expect that trend to continue.

Quarterback Analysis:

This group could either be very good, or very bad. Fifth-year senior Nate Costa leads a tight QB race with sophomore Darron Thomas right now, but things could easily change in fall camp. With Costa’s 3 injuries, Thomas brings more mobility to Oregon’s option offense, but Costa is recognized as the superior passer. Whoever wins out better play well, or this team could be looking at mid-tier bowl berth.

O-Line Analysis:

One of the strongest groups of the offense, as this unit returns the entire two-deep from last year. Line Coach Steve Greatwood has mustered excellent line play during his entire tenure at Oregon, and this year, he has a lot to work with. T Bo Thran, as well as Gs Carson York and Mark Asper are pre-season All Pac-10 picks. Expect the line to consistently open up holes and make the new quarterback’s job a lot easier.

Wide Receiver/TE Analysis:

Oregon has a pretty average group of receivers with more problems than production. Jeff Maehl, Drew Davis, and Lavasier Tuinei lead a solid if unspectacular group of receivers. Maehl has been productive in his career and could challenge for All Pac-10 honors, but the rest have left much to be desired. Injuries (Davis, Blake Cantu), as well as academic (former 4-stars Tyrece Gaines and Diante Jackson) and disciplinary problems (Jamere Holland and Garrett Embry), have plagued most of this group; leading to the dismissal of several talented players. True freshman Keanon Lowe and Josh Huff bring much needed speed to the position. At tight end David Paulson was solid as a backup last year, and JUCO transfer Brandon Williams was solid in spring practices.

Backfield Analysis:

This is the best unit on the offense. LaMichael James is a legitimate Heisman candidate, while Kenjon Barner brings a whole new level of speed to the table. Running backs coach Gary Russell also has high expectations of true freshman Lache Seastrunk and Dontae Williams. Remene Alston is an experienced backup.

Special Teams Analysis:

Kicker Rob Beard and punter Jackson Rice bring big legs to the table, which should help the defense immensely. Beard’s field goal accuracy remains to be seen, but Rice was solid as a true freshman punter last year, and the two should consistently create good field position. In the return game, Kenjon Barner is as dangerous as it gets. He’s a breakaway threat every time he touches the ball, and he can change a game instantly (see; the UCLA game last year where he opened the second half with a touchdown return).

Team Schedule:

Saturday Sep. 4 vs. New Mexico

Saturday Sep. 11 @ Tennessee

Saturday Sep. 18 vs. Portland State

Saturday Sep. 25 @ Arizona State

Saturday Oct. 2 vs. Stanford

Saturday Oct. 9 @ Washington State

Thursday Oct. 21 vs. UCLA

Saturday Oct. 30 @ USC

Saturday Nov. 6 vs. Washington

Saturday Nov. 13 @ California

Friday Nov. 26 vs. Arizona

Saturday Dec. 4 @ Oregon State

Best Case Scenario:

Honestly, if the quarterback play is as good if not better than last year (no small task, mind you) this team could be playing for the national championship come January. With 17 returning starters off a 10 win team and promising young players, the talent is all there. Coach Kelly looks like he’s the real deal, and could take this team to unseen heights.

Worst Case Scenario:

However, if the quarterback play is sub-par and the right players don’t step up on defense, this team could be looking at an 8-4 or 7-5 regular season and a mid/low-tier bowl berth. We know the running game will still produce so the offense should still be okay, but it won’t be able to score enough without balance. Also, if the defense doesn’t play well and the team suffers, look for coordinator Nick Aliotti to be on the hot seat.

My Final Conference Standings Predictions:
1.      Oregon
2.      Stanford
3.      USC
4.      Oregon State
5.      California
6.      Washington
7.      Arizona
8.      UCLA
9.      Arizona State
10. Washington State

by: (Oregon Guru) Evan Kincl

Upcoming Article: "Team Breakdown: Oregon State Beavers"
Followed By: "Team Breakdown: Washington Huskies"

Team Breakdown: Arizona Wildcats

2010-07-29T01:56:00.000-07:00

by:
Arizona Guru (Richard Elias)
Email me at: arizona.guru@pac10guru.com

Arizona Wildcats

Pre-Season Ranking (www.sportingnews.com):
35

Record Last Year:
(8-5 overall , 6-3 in conference)

Bowl Game:
Holiday Bowl loser to Nebraska 33-0

Trending up, down, or flat:
Up.

Total Returning Starters:
14 total returning starters. (Defense: 4) (Offense: 10)

Key Returnees:
Offense: Nick Foles QB, Nic Grigsby RB, Juron Criner WR, Colin Baxter C, Adam Grant LT
Defense: Ricky Elmore DE, Brooks Reed DE, Trevin Wade, CB

Key Losses:
Offense: Terrell Turner WR, Delashaun Dean WR
Deffense: Earl Mitchell DT, Vuna Tuihalamaka LB, Xavier Kelly LB, Cam Nelson S, Devin Ross CB

Key Incoming Transfers:
Defense: The Cats have two outstanding DT transfers competing for a starting spot. They are: Willie Mobley DT (Ohio State) and Jonathan Hollins DT (Tennessee). At least one of them is expected to earn a starting spot at one of the two open positions.
Offense: Arizona has received great news this week in that Dexter Ransom WR (Blinn College, Texas) has become fully eligible to play for the Wildcats this season. Ransom was the #1 rated JUCO wide receiver last year; and at 6’4”- 210lbs he could very well step in for the loss of the Cats’ #2 receiver Delashaun Dean (dismissal). The Arizona wide receiving corps is one of the most talented and deepest in the conference, and the addition of Ransom will only make better and add to their depth.

Key Freshmen Ready to Play:
Offense: Due to the 10 returning starters on O, the only freshman that has a real good chance at sniffing significant playing time would be Jack Baucus TE (redshirt Freshman). In the Spring Game, the sure-handed receiver demonstrated his skills by getting great separation from the defense about 30 yards downfield and then leaping to snag the football in full extension using his entire 6’6” frame.
Deffense: True freshman Marquise Flowers S may demonstrate that he is too valuable to redshirt at the strong safety position if he lives up to his billing as the top recruit in the State of Arizona and U.S. Army All-American.

Under-the-Radar Players Ready for a Breakout Season:
Expect William “Bug” Wright WR to have a breakout junior year. He was also the top kick returner in the Pac-10 last year. Bug should gain most of his yardage on quick strikes over the middle and quick-hitting bubble screens. His quickness and elusiveness remind many Wildcat fans of Mike Thomas (Pac-10 record for most receptions) as he has the ability to break a long play at any time. On defense, look for Lolomana Mikaele DT to anchor the middle of the front-line. His main goal will be to plug holes against any opponents running attack and allow for Arizona’s very talented defensive ends to wreak havoc in the backfield. There’s no doubt he will also get a few sacks and tackles-for-loss of his own.

Players Needing to Step it Up:
The Wildcat Offense needs Nic Grigsby RB to stay injury free this year; as he missed three full games and parts of others due to a shoulder separation last season. Not that Nic is letting the team down, but the gifted running back needs to somehow avoid missing too many carries because of nagging injuries. The tailback appeared to have injured himself on the first carry of the spring game, but coaches believe he has had enough time to heal and will be at 100% by the start of camp on August 5th. Dominique Austin DE is a junior that has bulked up and regained most of his quickness, but he has to demonstrate a consistent ability to be a reliable run-stopper or he may lose his out to one of the many talented defensive tackles vying for a spot.

Key Position Battles:
While the offense is almost completely set outside of the 4th WR spot, most of the position battles lie on the defensive side of the ball. Linebacker is the biggest question mark for the Cats this year as the position lost all 3 starters to graduation. The current expected starters at linebacker are: Jake Fischer SLB (whom many believe to be the next Marcus Bell or Lance Briggs), Derek Earls MLB, and Paul Vassallo WLB. C. J. Parish SLB, Trevor Erno MLB, and R. J. Young WLB are expected to provide depth while possibly stealing a starting spot if someone falters.

X-Factor:
Coaching could be the difference maker for the Wildcats this year. New quarterbacks coach Frank Scelfo has guided 3 QB’s to the NFL while an assistant coach at Tulane. He has been making a difference in the throwing motions of both Nick Foles (starter) and Matt Scott (back-up). More interestingly, the Cats have replaced Mark Stoops (D-Coordinator now at Florida State) and Sonny Dykes (HC now at Louisiana Tech) with brand new coordinators on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball: Bill Beddenbaugh (Co-Offensive Coordinator), Seth Littrel (Co-Offensive Coordinator) along with Greg Brown (Co-Defensive Coordinator), and Tim Kish (Co-Defensive Coordinator). Head coach Mike Stoops, known for his defensive player development, is in charge of taking a defense with only 4 returning starters and making them very good very quickly.

Fun Fact:
In 1899, the Arizona teams were known as the “Varsity” until they became the Wildcats in 1914. The school colors were sage green and silver until the football team got a deal on some red and blue sweaters in 1900.

Major Injuries:
No major injuries to anyone on the 2-deep chart. Nic Grigsby is expected to be completely healed and ready to go for the start of Fall Camp.

3 Certainties and 3 Question Marks:
Certainties:
1) Arizona is on the up-swing (back to back bowl games and 8-5 records). With a more than and favorable schedule with 7 home games, the Cats should at least equal if not improve upon last year’s record.
2) Led by quarterback Nick Foles, the dangerous Arizona Offense should put up at least 30 points a game this year (27 pts. per game last year).
3) Arizona will win its third game in a row versus their hated in-state rival, Arizona State.
Question marks:
1) Linebackers: Who will start? Will they be able to handle the many talented Pac-10 tailbacks?
2) Can Arizona find two quality defensive tackles to compliment their terrific DE’s?
3) Will Arizona finally lose their “curse” and make it to their first Rose Bowl?

Schedule Toughness:
The Cats have a very favorable schedule this year. 7 home games with match-ups against some of the tougher teams (OSU, USC, Washington, Cal) will give them the inside track in their quest to win the conference title.

Make-or-Break Game:
Nov. 6 @ Stanford. This game could determine the conference champion. Every year these teams play close with the home team having the edge the last two years. Arizona was one game away from the Rose Bowl last year, and this might be their redemption song.

Key 3-game Stretch:
@ Stanford Nov. 6th, USC Nov. 13th, and @ Oregon Nov.30th.
Arizona faces their two toughest road opponents during this 3-game stretch. If the Cats can come away winners against either Stanford or Oregon then they should be in great shape for a title shot. Outside of Oregon State, no one has consistently played better against USC than Arizona over the past few years. The Wildcats are one of only three college football teams to beat USC in the Coliseum under Pete Carol’s tenure; and they did it just last year. So, there’s a great chance Arizona could end up 2-1 after this key 3-game stretch.

Most Challenging Half of the Season:
The final six games of the schedule will be the toughest with home games against Washington, USC and ASU; and roadies being played against UCLA, Stanford and Oregon. Arizona tends to play better come late October and all through November so the Cats should be ready for their tough back-stretch.

Team Overview:
The consensus among prognosticators this year is to again underestimate Arizona. The Cats were picked to finish 8th in the Pac-10 last year and ended up 2nd. Too much emphasis and negativity is being placed on the replacement of the coordinators, in my opinion. Two of the three coordinators are being promoted within the Arizona ranks. They know the systems very well and intend on making very few changes to the effective spread offense and zone defensive scheme. If Arizona’s defensive front 7 can surpass expectations, and if the offense does what they’re expected to do, then this is the best chance Arizona will have at winning the conference in over a decade.

Defensive Overview:
The defense will always be a direct reflection of head coach Mike Stoops no matter who the coordinator is. Every year, Stoops turns 2 and 3 star recruits into all-conference defensive players. Now that Stoops is starting to get 4-star recruits to commit to Arizona, there’s no telling what he can do with some of those current and incoming players. Now that the talent and depth levels are improving, expect this trend to continue for as long as Arizona keeps Mike Stoops in tucson. The linebackers remain the one area that could make or break this team’s overall success. Expect the DB’s to be among the best in the Pac-10 once again with Trevin Wade CB locking down one side of the field and a couple blue-chip safeties battling for the free and strong safety slots (Adam Hall and Marquise Flowers). If the defense comes together they should finish in the conference’s top three in both yardage allowed and points given up. The most interesting dynamic will be the “cheetah” package the coaches are rumored to be installing with four big and fast defensive ends line-up in passing situations.

Front-4 Analysis:
Arizona has been slow to build up depth with capable strong and fast players on the defensive line during the Mike Stoops era. This has been the major weak spot on the D in years past. Arizona’s strength program led by Corey Edmonds has, over the past couple years, improved the size and strength of the D-line. The depth, although still not great, is much better than seasons prior. Along with Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed, D’Andre Reed is another outstanding defensive end who could start at most other Pac-10 schools. If they get enough help by the DT’s in plugging the gaps, and if Brooks Reed can remain healthy, then Arizona’s front-4 should again be leading the way in sacks and run-stopping ability.

Linebacker Analysis:
This has to be considered the biggest potential weak spot of the overall D. The incoming talent is there, and linebackers coach Tim Kish is known for producing all-conference performers at linebacker. Arizona has two games to get the feet wet of their linebackers before their first real test, Iowa, comes to town. With Fischer, Earls, Vasallo, and Earno likely to start or see major playing time during those first few games, we will all know after the Iowa game if Arizona is going to be a legit title contender or not.

Secondary Analysis:
The secondary returns 1st team all Pac-10 cornerback Trevin Wade and starting strong safety Robert Golden. Marcus Benjamin has earned the other corner position by performing brilliantly when called upon last year. Joe Perkins is battling highly touted Adam Hall for the free safety spot, but that could change when 4-Star recruit Marquise Flowers joins the team in Fall Camp. The secondary will end up being one of the strengths of the defense once the season gets underway.

Offensive Overview:
The offensive system the players will be running this season will have changed very little from last year. What will be unknown however is how the plays will be called and if having 2 offensive coordinators will benefit the offense or hamper it. Both Litrell and Beddenbaugh have been coaches in the Arizona spread offense system under Sonny Dykes for multiple seasons. The coaches have made it clear that they want to be able to run the ball better in goal line situations now they have two power runningbacks (Greg Nwoko and Taimi Tutogi). They will also throw to the tight end more which should open up the running game even more.

Quarterback Analysis:
Quarterbacking should be much improved from last year as Nick Foles has 9 full games under his belt now. Arizona started the season last year with a competitive position battle, but this year there is no question who the go-to-guy will be. Foles is now one of the top QB’s in the conference and has improved his mechanics over the summer thanks to the addition of QB coach Frank Scelfo. The Wildcats have a very capable back-up who actually beat out Foles last year to start the season. That player is Matt Scott. Scott is more of a multi-threat quarterback with great speed and an average arm. Rumors abound of the “Wildcat” formation being used with Scott from time to time. He may even shift over to wide receiver at times to add a small wrinkle into the “Wildcat” game plan.

O-Line Analysis:
The line is led by all conference center Colin Baxter and veteran left tackle Adam Grant. The rest have either started or played extensively and are backed by some talented young reserves. This unit should be as good if not better than last year’s squad, which was a conference best in sacks allowed: 13 (10th best Nationally).

Wide Receiver/TE Analysis:
“Air Zona” is capable of multiple strikes from multiple points of attack. This may be the most talented and deepest group of receivers ever to play for the cats. Juron Criner WR is one of the conferences best returning wide receivers. Arizona loves the tall receivers and he is one of many standing 6’3” or higher. William “Bug” Wright is the perfect short route receiver you want in a spread offense. He can take the ball and go in a hurry. Accompanying them are productive returners David Douglas, David Roberts, and Travis Cobb. Reserves with some good opportunity to play are Travis Cobb and Richard Morrison, but the one gem is JUCO transfer Dexter Ransom. JUCO transfers are always a crap shoot, but smart money is on Ransom to be very productive for the Cats this year. Can you also imagine having Rob Gronkowski as your “Tight End” this year? Too bad Gronk left a year early as he was a scoring machine in the red zone as a freshman and sophomore. There are plans to use the non-Gronks more across the middle this year, and those two tight ends have the talent to put up good numbers in A. J. Simmons and Jack Baucus.

Backfield Analysis:
Arizona’s depth was tested last year due to injuries. Depth and talent is increased by the additions of freshman Kylan Butler, (r) freshman Daniel Jenkins, and sophomore Taimi Tutogi. Tutogi is a hefty 6’-1” and 258 pounds of devastation and carnage waiting to pound the ball up the middle in short yardage situations. One frustration Cats fans had with Dykes last year was the non-use of Tutogi. Hopefully the new coordinators utilize him more.

Special Teams Analysis: Arizona’s special teams units have consistently been ranked in or near the top 20 in the country over the last several seasons. Keenyn Crier P and Alex Zendejas PK return along with kick off specialist Jason Bondzio. All punt and kick returners come back this year as well. Kick returns were shared by Keola Antolin and Travis Cobb while William “Bug” Wright had a 17.5 yd. punt return average. Special Teams should be a strength for the Cats and they should improve on last year’s #22 ranking.

Team Schedule:
Sep. 3 at Toledo
Sep. 11 The Citadel
Sep. 18 Iowa
Sep. 25 California
Oct. 2 Bye
Oct. 9 Oregon St.
Oct. 16 at Washington St.
Oct. 23 Washington
Oct. 30 at UCLA
Nov. 6 at Stanford
Nov. 13 USC
Nov. 20 Bye
Nov. 26 at Oregon
Dec. 2 ASU

Best Case Scenario:
Offense performs as expected and the defensive question marks are answered very quickly in a good way. The Wildcats get past Toledo, thump The Citadel, and hold Iowa to 14 points in a close win. The next two home games against Cal and Oregon St. go according to plan as the team prevails in both games. Destroying Wazzu, the Cats come home for a very big game against Washington. Arizona gets vengeance from the “shoe” call and send Washington home crying. At 7-0 Arizona heads to UCLA for a tough game. The Cats take it 80 yards with 50 seconds left to win it. Traveling to Stanford for their first true road test, Arizona gets un-Lucky as the Cardinal win by a field goal. Coming home against a forlorn USC team, Arizona enjoys one of its easier victories of the season. The Wildcats then go up to Eugene and beat the Wardrobe Changers in a shoot-out. ASU is nothing but a practice game for…..THE ROSE BOWL!

Worst Case Scenario:
If the coordinators on offense or defense have a problem calling plays and/or making adjustments, things could go wrong and second guessing could possibly creep in. The linebackers and defensive tackles don’t produce and Foles can’t find his rhythm for the majority of the season. Even if the wheels came off though, I have a hard time picturing a losing season with the amount of offensive talent and defensive coaching ability on hand. 7-5 would be a step back, but still good enough for a bowl.

My Prediction on the Pac-10 Final Standings:

1: Arizona
2: Oregon
3: Stanford
4: USC
5: Oregon State
6: Washington
7: California
8: UCLA
9: Arizona State
10: Washington State

by:
Arizona Guru (Richard Elias)
arizona.guru@pac10guru.com

Upcoming Article: "Team Breakdown: Oregon Ducks"
Followed By: "Team Breakdown: Oregon State Beavers"

2010 Pac-10 Football Predictions

2010-07-25T14:49:00.000-07:00

About Time!

Fall football camp will open up in the next couple weeks for all Pac-10 Teams, and one of the more wide-open and highly anticipated Pac-10 College Football Seasons is less than 40 days away. With USC nothing more than an asterisk and with the unsurprising expulsion of Jeremiah Masoli from the Oregon Football Team, the Rose Bowl will undoubtedly be represented by someone other the aforementioned two teams.

So without further adieu, here is an objective and non-biased prediction on the 2010 Pac-10 College Football final league standings. (Over the next couple of weeks, a full breakdown of each school will be published in the order of their predicted finish).

1) Arizona Wildcats
(Finished 2nd last year)

-Why they'll finish 1st: With the conference's most prolific offense led by an experienced Nick Foles (Junior), stable of running backs with speed (Nic Grigsby/Keola Antolin) and power (Greg Nwoko/Taimi Tutogi), as well as a versatile and explosive wide receiving corps anchored by the conference's top receiver, Juron Criner; Arizona will light up the scoreboard all year long. Though the defense may be young and some inexperience exists in key positions, the Cats will always have a good to great defense with Mike Stoops as thier head coach. They bring back the conference's best defensive end combo in last year's sack leader, Ricky Elmore, and his DE teammate Brooks Reed (whom many believe is more talented than Elmore but spent most of last season injured). When adding some interior D-Line transfers from Ohio State and Tennessee, and blue-chip Secondary recruits (Adam Hall and Marquise Flowers), the Cats will have a defense better than last year's squad. The final reason Arizona will go to the Rose Bowl is their sent-from-heaven schedule. Arizona will have 7 home games this year with their most difficult games at home (Oregon State, USC, Cal, Arizona State, Washington). Had they been faced with a tougher schedule, then they might have been ranked lower than 1st.

2) Oregon Ducks
(Finished 1st last year)

-Why they'll finish 2nd: With 9 returning starters on an already good defense, and the electric LaMichael James at tailback, the Ducks will have yet another great season. Keeping the Ducks from repeating as Pac-10 Champs is, of course, the loss of QB Jeremiah Masoli. It's unbelievable how people think that Nate Costa or Darron Thomas can somehow, with absolutely no real experience, come in and replace Jeremiah Masoli and expect another Rose Bowl. Quarterback is the most difficult and most important position on the field. There's no way Costa or Thomas can compare to the athletic or play-making ability of Masoli. Oregon's schedule is in their favor however, with Arizona, Stanford, Washington, and UCLA all coming to town. The Ducks are still very loaded and will win most of their games even without Masoli.

3) Oregon State Beavers
(Finished 3rd last year)

-Why they'll finish 3rd: Although the Beavers open with a brutal 6-game stretch, they have enough depth and and talent to come away in decent shape and coast through their final 6 games. Nothing more needs to be said about the Quizzes and their incredible talent. Also, with 8 returning starters and 4 of 5 offensive lineman coming back, the Beavers will give fits to all of their foes this year. However, with an unproven and inexperienced quarterback, (Ryan Katz, So.) leading the Beavers into 2010, there's no way they can be the kings of Pac-10 Football this year. The Beaver defense is stout as usual, but many answers still remain as the secondary and front 4 need to improve this year.

4) Washington Huskies
(Finished 7th last year)

-Why they'll finish 4th: When you have the conference's most athletic and exciting quarterback on your team, Jake Locker, you better finish 5th or better even if you only have average talent around said quarterback. With all 11 starters returning on offense and a good crop of incoming freshman, the Dawgs will finally get back to playing in a post-season football game. The triple-threat of Locker, Polk (RB), and Kearse (WR), will frighten D-Coordinators all season long. Unfortunately, the Dawgs have 4 very difficult conference road games, and they will probably only win one of them (at California). Too bad UW doesn't have Locker for a couple more seasons as this will be their best season for a while.

5) Stanford Cardinal
(Finished 4th last year)

-Why they'll finish 4th: You can have all the Luck and Owusu you want, but without Gerhart anchoring the offense, Stanford will not finish better than 5th. As Andrew Luck gets major props and hype going to this season, deservedly so I must add; it is insanity to think that he will guide them to a Rose Bowl or 2nd place finish as some people are predicting. Toby Gerhart was the Stanford Offense last year. All the major pass plays were setup via the play-action, and without Gerhart to fear, the play-action will not be nearly as effective this season. Also, don't expect easy red zone touchdowns anymore as Gerhart garnered most of those TD's for the Cardinal. Stanford's D also loses some key players (Ekom Udofia, DE and Will Powers, LB) which will really hurt this year's defensive expectations. Standord's schedule is slightly difficult as they must play Oregon, Cal, and Washington on the road.

6) California Golden Bears
(Finished 6th last year)

Why they'll finish 6th: An experienced Kevin Riley comes back to hand the ball off to the explosive Shane Vareen, but an underwhelming receiving corps and no Jahvid Best to score TD's will lead to Jeff Tedford having an extremely hot seat at season's end. Tedford has had one great season, but just cannot convert amazing talent into season long success. The Bears bring back only 6 starters on defense this year, and those starters are average at their positions. The one bright spot in the Bear outlook is that they get first crack at soon-to-be-conference-foe Colorado in Week 2.

7) UCLA Bruins
(Finished 8th last year)

Why they'll finish 7th: With only 13 total returning starters to a team that was less than good last year, the Bruins will clamor for wins this season as they have one of the tougher schedules in the league. In a conference with several outstanding quarterbacks (Foles, Luck, Locker, Barkley), Kevin Prince will not be one of them as he leads a boring UCLA Offense to minimal success this year. Until Neuheisel can have 3 more recruiting years under his belt, the Bruins will continue to finish in the bottom half of the conference.

8) Arizona State Sun Devils
(Finished 9th last year)

Why they'll finish 8th this year: Why is it that ASU can't compete in football? Answer: No talent or depth on the offensive line...which is really only the tip of the iceberg. Letting Dirk Koetter go was probably the dumbest thing Lisa Love (the AD) could have done when she first took over. The year Koetter was fired he was just starting to get his kids and his system into place, hence their Holiday Bowl appearance in Dennis Erickson's first year as head coach. Unfortunately, with no real options at Quarterback, a brutal schedule, and an O-Line that seems to have a new injured player every week this spring/summer; there is no real hope for Sun Devil fans this year or in the near future.

9) Washington State Cougars
(Finished 10th last year)

Why they'll finish 9th this year: The Cougars should really be listed at 10th, but since USC is nothing more than an asterisk and a lame-duck this year, the Cougs must be placed 9th by default. With the conference's worst offense and worst defense last year, WSU cannot expect to win more than one game...and that's really asking a lot because Montana State isn't a pushover. I really like Washington State's new coach, and they have shown in the past that success is possible in Pullman. Just not this year or for the next 4 or 5 years until their program gets an overhaul and re-stocking of new recruits.

*10) USC Trojans
(Finished 5th last year)

Why they'll finish *10th this year: Ahhh the asterisk. Poor USC. The conference as a whole really does get more pub and respectability when the Trojans are able to play in bowl games. Even without the asterisk though, the Trojans probably would have only finished 4th this year. Barkley is good but will not ever be great. The defense was shaky last year and won't improve much this season. The offense is probably going to be a little better with Barkley having experience now. Sadly for the Trojans and their fan-base though is the stark reality that after the bowl ban is lifted the cupboard will be bearer than it's been in years, and it will take another 3 or 4 years of Kiffin recruiting to get the Trojans back...and when they do I'm sure they will undoubtedly be title contenders again.

Upcoming article: "Team Breakdown: Arizona Wildcats"
Followed by: "Team Breakdown: Oregon Ducks"

Best,
Pac-10 Guru