Pakistan Conflict Monitor tag:typepad.com,2003:weblog-81246864133297931 2010-03-17T10:30:00-07:00 The Pakistan Conflict Monitor is an initiative of the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. TypePad Peace Returns to Bajaur tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83547544f53ef0120a94a5678970b 2010-03-17T10:30:00-07:00 2010-03-17T10:30:00-07:00 Hustle and Bustle in Khar as Peace Returns to Bajaur, The News International, 17 March 2010 EXCERPT: "All main and link roads were opened to facilitate the returnees to their hometowns while cellular phone service and World Food Programme centres also started functioning after a long time. Reports said that tribesmen, dislocated due to the clashes between the security forces and militants, have started returning to their homes and villages. The joy could be seen on the faces of tribesmen who were seen exchanging greetings over restoration of peace in Bajaur. Those coming to their native villages hoisted national flags... Human Security Report Project

Bajaur-pakistan-map Hustle and Bustle in Khar as Peace Returns to Bajaur, The News International, 17 March 2010

EXCERPT: "All main and link roads were opened to facilitate the returnees to their hometowns while cellular phone service and World Food Programme centres also started functioning after a long time. Reports said that tribesmen, dislocated due to the clashes between the security forces and militants, have started returning to their homes and villages. The joy could be seen on the faces of tribesmen who were seen exchanging greetings over restoration of peace in Bajaur. Those coming to their native villages hoisted national flags on the vehicles and were chanting slogans 'long live Pakistan' and 'salute to Pakistan Army'. The government departments including educational institutions were closed after launching of military operation against the militants in August 2008, and the subsequent volatile situation in Bajaur tribal region. Thousands of families left their hearths and homes and shifted to safer places in the settled districts of NWFP."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
38 Taliban surrender in Bajaur, Daily Times, 17 March 2010
Commander held in Peshawar, The News International, 17 March 2010

Related posts:
Army captures key militant hideout, 2 March 2010
Bajaur Agency: The new landscape of insurgency in FATA, 15 February 2010
For IDPs, little hope of early return, 8 February 2010
Northwest turns volatile following suicide attack, Bajaur offensive, 1 February
Rift among Bajaur Taliban widens as casualties mount, 29 January 2010

 http://www.pakistanconflictmonitor.org/2010/03/peace-returns-to-bajaur.html Taliban Increasingly Unpopular tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83547544f53ef0120a94a6e62970b 2010-03-17T10:15:00-07:00 2010-03-17T10:15:00-07:00 Taliban Increasingly Unpopular in Pakistan, Gallup, 12 March 2010 EXCERPT: "The Taliban's presence on either side of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border is largely unwelcome, but increasingly so in Pakistan, where Gallup surveys show they have lost much of the little appeal they had. Four percent of Pakistanis in a November-December 2009 poll, conducted prior to Pakistan's current push to rout the Taliban within its borders, said the Taliban's presence in some areas of the country has a positive influence, down from 15% in June. Gallup most recently polled Pakistanis in the particularly deadly period after the army's anti-Taliban operations in the... Human Security Report Project

Chart Taliban Increasingly Unpopular in Pakistan, Gallup, 12 March 2010

EXCERPT: "The Taliban's presence on either side of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border is largely unwelcome, but increasingly so in Pakistan, where Gallup surveys show they have lost much of the little appeal they had. Four percent of Pakistanis in a November-December 2009 poll, conducted prior to Pakistan's current push to rout the Taliban within its borders, said the Taliban's presence in some areas of the country has a positive influence, down from 15% in June. Gallup most recently polled Pakistanis in the particularly deadly period after the army's anti-Taliban operations in the South Waziristan tribal area started in October. Retributive militant attacks across Pakistan reportedly have claimed more than 600 Pakistanis' lives since then, which the public's increasingly negative view of the Taliban may reflect."

Read the full survey report.

Related articles:
Bombings in Swat, Punjab likely to backfire on Taliban [blog], Juan Cole: Informed Comment, 13 March 2010
US envoy says public opinion swings against Taliban in Pakistan, VOA News, 10 June 2009

Related posts:
Pakistani responses to the drone campaign, 22 February 2010
Pakistan likely to become more Islamist, anti-US: Report, 12 January 2010
Pakistan: The next generation, 25 November 2009
Poll: Majority of Pakistanis support Waziristan operations, 3 November 2009

 http://www.pakistanconflictmonitor.org/2010/03/taliban-increasingly-unpopular.html Kashmiri Separatists Seek Saudi Mediation tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83547544f53ef0120a94a91a3970b 2010-03-17T10:00:00-07:00 2010-03-17T13:46:21-07:00 Kashmiri Separatists Seek Saudi Mediation To End Dispute [blog], Reuters // India: A billion aspirations, 17 March 2010 EXCERPT: "Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, a senior Kashmiri separatist leader, has urged Saudi Arabia to use its influence and bring India and Pakistan closer to solve the decades-long conflict over the disputed Himalayan region. Farooq arrived in the Kingdom last Thursday to perform the Umrah pilgrimage and his visit, two weeks after the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, is being considered significant. [...] Singh’s visit, the first to Saudi Arabia by an Indian leader since 1982, sought to build economic ties and... Human Security Report Project

Kashmiri Separatists Seek Saudi Mediation To End Dispute [blog], Reuters // India: A billion aspirations, 17 March 2010

EXCERPT: "Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, a senior Kashmiri separatist leader, has urged Saudi Arabia to use its influence and bring India and Pakistan closer to solve the decades-long conflict over the disputed Himalayan region. Farooq arrived in the Kingdom last Thursday to perform the Umrah pilgrimage and his visit, two weeks after the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, is being considered significant. [...] Singh’s visit, the first to Saudi Arabia by an Indian leader since 1982, sought to build economic ties and to enlist Riyadh’s help in improving regional security. 'Currently, a rethink is going on in India. Given the strengthening of ties between India and the Kingdom, New Delhi would be more comfortable with Saudi mediation than any other country,' Farooq told Arab News."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Saudi mediation could resolve Kashmir issue, says Mirwaiz, Arab News, 13 March 2010
The exiles dreaming of a return to Kashmir, The Independent, 22 February 2010
Geelani's dialogue proposal to resolve Kashmir issue hailed, One India, 6 March 2010
Kashmir: "The world's most dangerous place" [book review], The New York Review of Books, 4 March 2010

Related posts:
Thousands rally for Kashmir, 5 February 2010
Symbiosis of peace and development in Kashmir: An imperative for conflict transformation, 27 January 2010
Militants killed as siege ends in Kashmir, 7 January 2010
Kashmir settlement vital for regional peace: Zardari, 5 January 2010
2,600 bodies found in Kashmir mass graves: Report, 2 December 2009

 http://www.pakistanconflictmonitor.org/2010/03/kashmiri-separatists-seek-saudi-mediation.html US Transfers Cobra Helicopters to Pakistan tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83547544f53ef0120a94aa8b1970b 2010-03-17T09:50:00-07:00 2010-03-17T13:35:19-07:00 US Delivers Pakistan Cobra Choppers, The News International, 17 March 2010 EXCERPT: "The United States on Tuesday handed over a fleet of modern AH-1 Cobra helicopters to Pakistan, which has been inducted in the Army Aviation, Geo news reported on Tuesday. The delivery consists of 14 to 16 helicopters. The channel quoted its sources as saying that helicopters of this design are being used by the Jordanian Armed Forces. The US will also fund $75 million to upgrade the helicopters currently being used by the Pakistan Armed Forces." Read the full story. For information on arms transfers to Pakistan, visit... Human Security Report Project

Cobra US Delivers Pakistan Cobra Choppers, The News International, 17 March 2010

EXCERPT: "The United States on Tuesday handed over a fleet of modern AH-1 Cobra helicopters to Pakistan, which has been inducted in the Army Aviation, Geo news reported on Tuesday. The delivery consists of 14 to 16 helicopters. The channel quoted its sources as saying that helicopters of this design are being used by the Jordanian Armed Forces. The US will also fund $75 million to upgrade the helicopters currently being used by the Pakistan Armed Forces."

Read the full story.

For information on arms transfers to Pakistan, visit the Stockholm International Peace Institute's Arms Transfers database.

Related articles:
US No. 1 arms exporter, China, India top importers: SIPRI, Economic Times, 15 March 2010
Pakistan helicopter crashes during raid: Military, Sify News, 2 February 2010
Maintaining Pakistan's Cobra attack helicopters, Defense Industry Daily, 5 October 2008
US gives eight Cobra helicopters to Pakistan, Reuters, 2 February 2007

Related posts:
US to offer Pakistan smart bomb kits, drones, 3 March 2010
US expands arms sales to both India and Pakistan, 26 February 2010
Urging cooperation, US offers drones, 22 January 2010
China and Pakistan: A formidable partnership in high-tech defense production, 18 December 2009
Security forces need capacity building: PM, 20 November 2009

 http://www.pakistanconflictmonitor.org/2010/03/us-transfers-cobra-helicopters-to-pakistan.html Identity and Conflict in the Pashtun Tribal Belt tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83547544f53ef0120a94a4591970b 2010-03-17T09:40:00-07:00 2010-03-17T13:34:08-07:00 Mobilizing Identity in the Pashtun Tribal Belt, Small Wars Journal, 17 March 2010 EXCERPT: "Today, violent conflict in the Pashtun tribal belt in Afghanistan and Pakistan is increasing and a number of experts are attempting to understand the dynamics driving this conflict. An examination of two key identities of the Pashtun people reveals how religious identity is being mobilized by one group for political purposes and ethnic identity is inadvertently being threatened by another group. The resulting vortex of threat and mobilization are the source of this increased violence. This paper analyzes the ethnic and religious identities of the Pashtun... Human Security Report Project

Af-pak-flag Mobilizing Identity in the Pashtun Tribal Belt, Small Wars Journal, 17 March 2010

EXCERPT: "Today, violent conflict in the Pashtun tribal belt in Afghanistan and Pakistan is increasing and a number of experts are attempting to understand the dynamics driving this conflict. An examination of two key identities of the Pashtun people reveals how religious identity is being mobilized by one group for political purposes and ethnic identity is inadvertently being threatened by another group. The resulting vortex of threat and mobilization are the source of this increased violence. This paper analyzes the ethnic and religious identities of the Pashtun people to illustrate how identities are used to influence conflict and it will then offer ways for the US and the international community to adjust their activities to reduce conflict in the Pashtun tribal belt."

Read the full article.

Related articles:
What next in Pakistan's Pashtun belt?, Eurasia Review, 4 March 2010

Related report:
Caught in the crossfire: The Pashtun tribes of southeast Afghanistan [pdf], Lowy Institute for International Policy via Aryana Institute for Regional Research and Policy, October 2009

Related posts:
Tribal areas need justice to consolidate Taliban's defeat, 21 December 2009
Pashtunistan: The real challenge, 7 December 2009
The Talibanisation of Pakistan's western region, 3 December 2009
Tribesmen pawns in "duplicitous" game, 4 November 2009

 http://www.pakistanconflictmonitor.org/2010/03/mobilizing-identity-in-the-pashtun-tribal-belt.html "Mafia" Controls Karachi Water Supply tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83547544f53ef01310faa8fb7970c 2010-03-16T10:35:00-07:00 2010-03-16T13:40:58-07:00 Karachi "Water Mafia" Leaves Pakistanis Parched and Broke, Los Angeles Times, 16 March 2010 "Corrupt politicians allow businessmen to siphon off as much as 41% of the city's water supply and turn around and sell it at exorbitant rates to residents, generating an estimated $43 million a year. The illegal operations, routinely referred to as mafias, are everywhere. [...] The water tanker mafia's prey can be found in slums like Karachi's Gulshan-Sikanderabad neighborhood, where every morning people buy water from the tankers, lug the plastic jugs back to their homes on wooden carts, then come back three or four more... Human Security Report Project

Karachi-Pakistan-map Karachi "Water Mafia" Leaves Pakistanis Parched and Broke, Los Angeles Times, 16 March 2010

"Corrupt politicians allow businessmen to siphon off as much as 41% of the city's water supply and turn around and sell it at exorbitant rates to residents, generating an estimated $43 million a year. The illegal operations, routinely referred to as mafias, are everywhere. [...] The water tanker mafia's prey can be found in slums like Karachi's Gulshan-Sikanderabad neighborhood, where every morning people buy water from the tankers, lug the plastic jugs back to their homes on wooden carts, then come back three or four more times in the afternoon and evening to buy more. A family that makes $100 a month can spend as much as a quarter of that on water, which, elsewhere in Pakistan, costs pennies and flows out of household taps. Water scarcity isn't the cause. Karachi has a steady water supply, and it has the network of pipes to pump ample water into every neighborhood, rich and poor. But Karachi is also a city of opportunists forever on the prowl for under-the-table wealth. As municipal officials look the other way, businessmen illegally tap water mains, and use the makeshift hydrants to supply fleets of tankers that then sell water to businesses, factories and neighborhoods at inflated prices. As many as 272 million gallons a day are siphoned off by the trucks."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Water more profit than life, 15 March 2010
Water sellers set up illegal reservoirs, DAWN, 26 December 2009
Water supply to city cut by half, DAWN, 19 June 2009
Over 390m gallons of water go to waste daily, The Nation, 18 October 2008

Related media:
Water problems in Karachi [video], Karachi Water Partnership and Eckova via YouTube, 24 May 2007

Related posts:
US shifts focus to pakistan's economic, energy and water challenges, 4 March 2010
Militants try to cash in on farmer's water woes, 28 January 2010
Water challenges a "crucial" issue in Central-South Asia, 19 January 2010

 http://www.pakistanconflictmonitor.org/2010/03/water-mafia-controls-karachi-water-supply.html Three Dead in Renewed Violence in Kashmir tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83547544f53ef0120a943256a970b 2010-03-16T10:30:00-07:00 2010-03-16T13:54:39-07:00 Three Killed, Eight Injured in Kashmir Attacks, Sify News, 16 March 2010 EXCERPT: "Militants struck twice in a day in the Kashmir Valley, killing two civilians and a policeman and injuring eight people, three of them securitymen, Tuesday. The rebels opened fire in the capital city's crowded business centre of Lal Chowk and then attacked a police patrol in Sopore town. A shop worker was killed and two civilians and two troopers were injured in the Lal Chowk militant attack - the second in the city in three days, police said. City police chief Javaid Riyaz told IANS that three... Human Security Report Project

India-pakistan-flagThree Killed, Eight Injured in Kashmir Attacks, Sify News, 16 March 2010

EXCERPT: "Militants struck twice in a day in the Kashmir Valley, killing two civilians and a policeman and injuring eight people, three of them securitymen, Tuesday. The rebels opened fire in the capital city's crowded business centre of Lal Chowk and then attacked a police patrol in Sopore town. A shop worker was killed and two civilians and two troopers were injured in the Lal Chowk militant attack - the second in the city in three days, police said. City police chief Javaid Riyaz told IANS that three militants opened fire with automatic weapons from a close range at a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) posse in the main business hub of the city when the area was bustling with shoppers in the morning. He said five people -- three civilians and two CRPF troopers -- were injured in the firing before the guerrillas escaped in the labyrinthine lanes of Lal Chowk, the heart of Srinagar."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Separatist factions clash in Kashmir, Sify News, 15 March 2010
Indian soldier killed in Kashmir grenade blast, BBC News, 15 March 2010
Six Indian police hurt in Kashmir: Spokesman, AFP, 14 March 2010
Militant groups come together in Kashmir, Bangalore Mirror, 14 March 2010

Related posts:
Kashmir militants "boosted" by govt, 5 March 2010
India announces Kashmir "amnesty" initiative, 11 February 2010
Unrest in Indian Kashmir enters second week, 8 February 2010
Thousands rally for Kashmir, 5 February 2010
Kashmir a police state: Gilani, 15 January 2010

 http://www.pakistanconflictmonitor.org/2010/03/three-dead-in-indian-kashmir-market-attacks.html Police Recover Caches of Explosives in Lahore tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83547544f53ef0120a942f314970b 2010-03-16T10:20:00-07:00 2010-03-16T13:41:29-07:00 Police Seize 1,500 Kilograms of Explosive Material in Iqbal Town, Daily Times, 16 March 2010 EXCERPT: "Police on Monday recovered 1,500 kilograms of explosive material during a search operation in Allama Iqbal Town. Locals had informed authorities that a large number of sacks were present in a shop in Mehran Block that had been unattended for some time. A police team, headed by Iqbal Town Superintendent Ali Nasir Rizvi, raided the shop and seized 1,500 kilograms of explosive material, suicide jackets, 18 hand grenades, unassembled light machine guns parts and thousands of bullets. The SP told reporters that the material... Human Security Report Project

Lahore-pakistan Police Seize 1,500 Kilograms of Explosive Material in Iqbal Town, Daily Times, 16 March 2010

EXCERPT: "Police on Monday recovered 1,500 kilograms of explosive material during a search operation in Allama Iqbal Town. Locals had informed authorities that a large number of sacks were present in a shop in Mehran Block that had been unattended for some time. A police team, headed by Iqbal Town Superintendent Ali Nasir Rizvi, raided the shop and seized 1,500 kilograms of explosive material, suicide jackets, 18 hand grenades, unassembled light machine guns parts and thousands of bullets. The SP told reporters that the material could have been used for low-intensity timed devices and other forms of terrorist attacks. He said the recovery was made possible by the participation of locals and it showed that if the public helped police, 'terrorists could not hide anywhere'. More than 32 blocks were searched in the raid, while mostly Afghan nationals and people from Swat were questioned."

Read the full story.

Related stories:
Explosive material found in second raid in Lahore, DAWN, 16 March 2010
Huge cache of explosives seized in Islamabad, Lahore, The News International, 16 March 2010
Lahore terror devours its creators, South Asia Intelligence Review via Eurasia Review, 16 March 2010
Out of the tribal areas and into the cities of Pakistan, Foreign Policy // The AfPak Channel, 15 March 2010

Related posts:
Multiple attacks kill dozens in Lahore, 12 March 2010
Taliban "ready to unleash 3,000 suicide bombers", 9 March 2010
Faulty equipment compromises security efforts, 9 March 2010

 http://www.pakistanconflictmonitor.org/2010/03/police-recover-caches-of-explosives.html LeT Emboldened by the Success of Mumbai Attacks tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83547544f53ef01310faa281c970c 2010-03-16T10:15:00-07:00 2010-03-16T12:21:44-07:00 LeT Was Emboldened by the Success of Mumbai Attacks, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 March 2010 EXCERPT: "The LeT is clearly still capable of operating, as is evidenced by its alleged involvement in the attempted attacks in Denmark and Bangladesh, as well as those in India. The target set -- including Western and Indian interests -- and the scale of these attempted attacks suggest that the group has been emboldened by the success of the Mumbai attacks. Some LeT members have also suggested that the group benefited in terms of recruitment as well as fundraising, following the Mumbai attacks,... Human Security Report Project

India-pakistan-flag LeT Was Emboldened by the Success of Mumbai Attacks, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 March 2010

EXCERPT: "The LeT is clearly still capable of operating, as is evidenced by its alleged involvement in the attempted attacks in Denmark and Bangladesh, as well as those in India. The target set -- including Western and Indian interests -- and the scale of these attempted attacks suggest that the group has been emboldened by the success of the Mumbai attacks. Some LeT members have also suggested that the group benefited in terms of recruitment as well as fundraising, following the Mumbai attacks, and it is clear that the Lashkar did not pay a particularly high cost at home. That is not to suggest that there were no consequences, but these were minimal, compared to the scale and impact of the Mumbai attacks."

Read the full interview.

Related articles:
Indian Islamist militants behind Pune blast: Source, AFP, 16 March 2010
Major terror strikes averted in India, Arab News, 14 March 2010
Is water Lashkar-e-Taiba's next cause?, Global Post, 9 March 2010

Related reports:
Weinbaum, Marvin. Bad company: Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and the growing ambition of Islamist militancy in Pakistan, Middle East Institute, 11 March 2010. Testimony before the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Related posts:
Pakistan reluctant to rein in LeT: US experts, 12 March 2010
US worries LeT might trigger India-Pakistan war, 11 March 2010
New Pakistan group claims India's Pune bombing, 17 February 2010
Terror without frontiers: Lashkar-e-Taiba's global reach, 15 December 2009
Lashkar-e-Taiba poised to strike again, 2 December 2009

 http://www.pakistanconflictmonitor.org/2010/03/let-emboldened-by-the-success-of-mumbai-attacks.html Pakistan’s Security Paradox: Countering and Fomenting Insurgencies tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d83547544f53ef01310faa530f970c 2010-03-16T10:00:00-07:00 2010-03-16T12:24:15-07:00 Pakistan’s Security Paradox: Countering and Fomenting Insurgencies [pdf], Joint Special Operations University, December 2009 EXCERPT: "Most American and Pakistani political and military leaders agree that without a credible U.S.-Pakistan partnership, victory against Taliban and Al Qaeda is impossible. For such a partnership, shared goals must be matched by shared threats, and perceptions must follow demonstrable action. Washington and Islamabad agree that Al Qaeda must be defeated. Pakistan’s national security calculus—based on India’s influence in Afghanistan—however, treats Afghan Taliban as leverage and Pakistani Taliban as enemies of the state. Consequently, Afghan Taliban are provided asylum in Pakistan while they wreak havoc... Human Security Report Project

Cover-temp Pakistan’s Security Paradox: Countering and Fomenting Insurgencies [pdf], Joint Special Operations University, December 2009

EXCERPT: "Most American and Pakistani political and military leaders agree that without a credible U.S.-Pakistan partnership, victory against Taliban and Al Qaeda is impossible. For such a partnership, shared goals must be matched by shared threats, and perceptions must follow demonstrable action. Washington and Islamabad agree that Al Qaeda must be defeated. Pakistan’s national security calculus—based on India’s influence in Afghanistan—however, treats Afghan Taliban as leverage and Pakistani Taliban as enemies of the state. Consequently, Afghan Taliban are provided asylum in Pakistan while they wreak havoc in Afghanistan, and Pakistani Taliban are attacked. While Pakistan has countered and fomented numerous insurgencies, this is the first time that it has done both to achieve its national security goals. This dual policy and disconnect between American and Pakistani threat perceptions is at the heart of Pakistan’s security paradox. Pakistan continues to indirectly counter (COIN) and foment (FOIN) insurgency in Afghanistan. Without acknowledging, explicating, and eventually changing this paradox, Afghanistan and Pakistan will continue to descent into chaos."

Read the full report [pdf].

Related reports:
A sea change in Pakistan? Breaking down the arguments, Small Wars Journal, 15 March 2010

Related posts:
The AfPak strategy: Reactions in Pakistan, 12 March 2010
Taking on the Taliban, 4 March 2010
Pak's complex relations with militant groups hinder Afghan success, 26 January 2010
The Quetta Shura Taliban in southern Afghanistan, 12 January 2010

 http://www.pakistanconflictmonitor.org/2010/03/pakistans-security-paradox-countering-and-fomenting-insurgencies.html