www.condosaletrends.com

The Panama City Beach condo real estate market remained flat for 2011.  After four years of significant price declines, we seemed to have finally reached the bottom.  The number of sales within the 75 buildings in our data base was up almost 30% over the number of sales in 2010. Your friends at www.condosaletrends.com have updated our Panama City Beach condo market data as of January 12, 2012.

Sale Price Trend Analysis:

The data indicates that overall sale prices tended to stabilize in January 2011 with little change over the year.  There have been large differences in same type unit sale prices over the past six months, sometimes as much as 15%.  This is not unusual when a market is beginning to stabilize after a period of significant price declines.  There are still plenty of foreclosures and short sales waiting to come on the market, therefore any sustained period of sale price increases is doubtful.  This is somewhat counter-intuitive because the number of properties listed for sale as foreclosure or short sale is down from previous months.  The banks are still struggling with the foreclosure/short sale issue.  The average time to foreclose in Florida is over one year.  It seems that the banks are trying to gear up for short sales rather than to foreclose.  That would be a win for everyone.

The following chart illustrates the cumulative trend for same type unit sale prices over the past three years. 

The sale price of each type of unit is only compared to the typical sale price of that particular type of unit as of January 1, 2009. As an example, a sale of an 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba unit located in the Celadon is only compared to sales of 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba Celadon units. A unit type with a January 1, 2009 market value of $400,000 is represented as 1 or 100%. An October 2009, $380,000 sale of that type of unit is depicted as .95 or 95% of the January 1, 2009 sale price. The chart above is a trend line of the trend lines of the sale prices of each type of unit from the 17 buildings. Foreclosure sale prices that were unrealistically low (mold problems for example) were not included. There were 389 sales used in the chart. The analysis does not try to skew the price trend in any direction. The data is just the data.

Number of Sales Per Month Analysis:

The following chart indicates the number of sales per month from the 75 buildings within our data base.  There was a significant increase in the number of sales of condos in the Panama City Beach market during 2011 when compared to the past three years.  Sales were up about 30% when compared to the number of 2010 sales.  

Summary:

It appears that 2011 was the bottom of the sale price decline spiral.  The number of sales is up while prices have remained overall.  Buyers seem to understand that prices can’t fall much further.  Financing a second home in one of the Panama City Beach condo buildings will remain difficult for the next several years.  Cash buyers have a significant negotiating advantage. The number of foreclosures and short sales will preclude much price appreciation over the next 12 months.

If you need specific sale price and sale price trends information for specific unit types in specific buildings, go to www.condosaletrends.com.

Sam Portman

Condosaletrends.com

7/6/2011

The Panama City condo real estate market showed signs of positive price appreciation during the first half of 2011.  After four years of significant price declines, we have at least temporarily reached the bottom of this downward sale price spiral.  The number of sales within the 75 buildings in our data base continues to out-pace the past three years.  However, the number of sales in June was down substantially from May.  Your friends at www.condosaletrends.com have updated our Panama City Beach condo market data as of July 6, 2011.

Sale Price Trend Analysis:

The following chart illustrates the trend for same type unit sale prices over the past two years.  The data indicates that overall sale prices tended to stabilize in January 2011 with a small uptick since May 2011.  There have been large differences in same unit sale prices over the past six months, sometimes as much as 15%.  This is not unusual when a market is beginning to stabilize after a period of significant price declines.  There are still plenty of foreclosures and short sales waiting to come on the market, therefore any sustained period of sale price increases is doubtful.

The sale price of each type of unit is only compared to the typical sale price of that particular type of unit as of January 1, 2009. As an example, a sale of an 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba unit located in the Celadon is only compared to sales of 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba Celadon units. A unit type with a January 1, 2009 market value of $400,000 is represented as 1 or 100%. An October 2009, $380,000 sale of that type of unit is depicted as .95 or 95% of the January 1, 2009 sale price. The chart contained in the following price trend analysis is a trend line of the trend lines of the sale prices of each type of unit from the 15 buildings. Foreclosure sale prices that were unrealistically low (mold problems for example) were not included. There were 316 sales used in the chart. The analysis does not try to skew the price trend in any direction. The data is just the data.

Number of Sales Per Month Analysis:

The following chart indicates the number of sales per month from the 75 buildings within our data base.  There was a significant increase in the number of sales of condos in the Panama City Beach market during the first six months of 2011 when compared to the past three years.  May had an almost 90% increase in the number of sales over the average of the past three years; however June sales were up only 20%.  

Summary:

It appears that 2011 will be the bottom of the sale price decline spiral.  The number of sales will most likely remain above previous years as buyers conclude that prices will not decline further.  The number of foreclosures and short sales will preclude much price appreciation over the next 12 months.

If you need specific sale price information on specific unit types, go to www.condosaletrends.com.

Sam Portman

Condosaletrends.com

The chart below illustrates the number of monthly sales within the 75 buildings in our data base over the past several years.

The chart indicates a significant increase in the number of sales over the past five months.  The increased number of sales will help in clearing the inventory of bank related properties that most always leads the market lower.  However, there are still a large number of properties whose mortgage is substantially more than current market value that will eventually find their way to the market as foreclosures or short sales.

Sale Price Trend Analysis

The data indicates that the overall market has tended to stabilize over the past five months. This is the first time that has happened during the past several years.

The sale price of each type of unit is only compared to the typical sale price of that particular type of unit as of January 1, 2009.  As an example, a sale of an 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba unit located in the Celadon is only compared to sales of 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba Celadon units.  A unit type with a January 1, 2009 market value of $400,000 is represented as 1 or 100%.   An October 2009, $380,000 sale of that type of unit is depicted as .95 or 95% of the January 1, 2009 sale price.  The chart contained in the following price trend analysis is a trend line of the trend lines of the sale prices of each type of unit from the 15 buildings.  Foreclosure sale prices that were unrealistically low (mold problems for example) were not included.  There were 304 sales used in the chart.  The analysis does not try to skew the price trend in any direction.  The data is just the data.

Several negative factors are still in play. While the number of sales for the past few months has been robust, the number sales so far in June have been lackluster.  We don’t know how many short sales and foreclosures are still waiting to come on the market. Financing second homes remains difficult.

For more market trend information on individual buildings and units and past blog posts for the Panama City Beach condo market, visit www.condosaletrends.com.

Sam Portman

www.condosaletrends.com

The February analysis indicated that the bottom might be near.  Sales data from the 75 buildings in our data base through April 19, 2011 supports that conclusion. There has actually been a slight increase in the overall market over the past three months.

The number of sales from the 75 buildings in our data base shows a significant increase over the past three years.  Preliminary data indicates there will be at least as many sales in April as last year.

The chart below illustrates the number of monthly sales within the buildings in our data base over the past several years.

Sale Price Trend Analysis

The market trend line is illustrated below.  It is structured to show a sale price trend measured in terms of the percentage sale price as of a particular date.  The starting date used was January 1, 2009 so we could show the price trend since January 2009.  We chose units from a variety of beach side buildings of different ages and sizes that had a sufficient number of sales as to be statistically significant.  All of the sales used in this analysis are from beach side buildings.  There is no collusion of beach side properties and off-beach properties. The buildings include Boardwalk Beach, Calypso, Celadon, Emerald Isle, Grandview East, Grandview at Long Beach, Gulf Crest, Regency Tower, Tidewater, Seychelles, Splash, Sterling Reef, The Summit, Ocean Villa, Twin Palms, and Treasure Island.

The sale price of each type of unit is only compared to the typical sale price of that particular type of unit as of January 1, 2009.  As an example, a sale of an 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba unit located in the Celadon is only compared to sales of 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba Celadon units.  A unit type with a January 1, 2009 market value of $400,000 is represented as 1 or 100%.   An October 2009, $380,000 sale of that type of unit is depicted as .95 or 95% of the January 1, 2009 sale price.  The chart contained in the following price trend analysis is a trend line of the trend lines of the sale prices of each type of unit from the 15 buildings.  Foreclosure sale prices that were unrealistically low (mold problems for example) were not included. There were 292 sales used in the chart.  The analysis does not try to skew the price trend in any direction.  The data is just the data.

The data indicates a slight uptick in prices over the last three months. However let’s not get too enthusiastic before we see how the trend goes over the next few months.

For more market trend information on individual buildings and units and past blogs, visit www.condosaletrends.com.

Sam Portman

www.condosaletrends.com

From www.condosaletrends.com

Shores of Panama Collateral LLC is auctioning the remaining 320 unsold units at the Shores of Panama Resort in Panama City Beach, Florida.  The sealed bid auction has not had wide spread advertising and is being run by CB Richard Ellis.  The auction is for the entire 320 units and the club business operations (no individual units).  Bids must be received by April 28, 2011.  There is some anecdotal evidence that Shores of Panama Collateral LLC is actually controlled by the FDIC but I can’t confirm that.

The Shores of Panama has approximately 732 total units. The resort has had a history of trouble since completion in 2007.  Only a few of the original pre-construction contracts closed. The project was taken over by the original lender and eventually ended up with the FDIC.

The HOA is underfunded due to a lack of HOA dues paying owners. The maintenance of the common elements has suffered. The original developer maintained ownership of the club amenities (pool, spa, etc) which meant that short term renters had to pay an extra fee to use the facilities.  Not very customer friendly.

There is no mention of an absolute sale to the highest bidder or a sale price reserve.  So the possibility of a transfer of ownership to private hands is still uncertain.  One thing is certain, that a transfer of all of the unsold units to individual ownership would be a good thing for the property and the overall Panama City Beach condo market.  The caveat is that a bulk buyer may flood the market with low priced units that may temporarily depress sale prices of similar units in the area.

The following chart from the www.condosaletrends.com database indicates that prices within the Shores of Panama building have remained mostly steady over the past six months.

As always, if you need specific information on recent sale prices and sale price trends for individual unit types in any of the 70 plus buildings within our database, go to www.condosaletrends.com.

 From www.condosaletrends.com

 Finally; the first good news for the Panama City Beach condo market since the meltdown in 2006. Your friends at www.condosaletrends.com have updated our Panama City Beach condo market data as of February 8, 2011.

 It’s been a long slog, but indications are that the bottom may be near.  The number of sales from the 75 buildings in our data base during November, December, and January has been higher than any other similar months over the past three years.  December and January sales were significantly higher.  While short sales and foreclosures still represent a large portion of the sales, sale prices have appeared to stabilize over the past two months. No new sale price lows were established during the past two months.

 It appears that buyers are sensing the bottom and that prices can’t go much lower.  The next several months will be very important in determining if the bottom is really here or if the last two months were just an anomaly.

 The chart below illustrates the number of monthly sales within the 75 buildings in our data base over the past several years.

  Sale Price Trend Analysis

 The market trend line is illustrated below.  It is structured to show a sale price trend measured in terms of the percentage sale price as of a particular date.  The starting date used was January 1, 2009 so we could show the price trend since January 2009.  We chose units from a variety of beach side buildings of different ages and sizes that had a sufficient number of sales as to be statistically significant.  All of the sales used in this analysis are from beach side buildings.  There is no collusion of beach side properties and off-beach properties. The buildings include Boardwalk Beach, Calypso, Celadon, Emerald Isle, Grandview East, Grandview at Long Beach, Gulf Crest, Regency Tower, Tidewater, Seychelles, Splash, Sterling Reef, The Summit, Ocean Villa, Twin Palms, and Treasure Island.

 The sale price of each type of unit is only compared to the typical sale price of that particular type of unit as of January 1, 2009.  As an example, a sale of an 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba unit located in the Celadon is only compared to sales of 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba Celadon units.  A unit type with a January 1, 2009 market value of $400,000 is represented as 1 or 100%.   An October 2009, $380,000 sale of that type of unit is depicted as .95 or 95% of the January 1, 2009 sale price.  The chart contained in the following price trend analysis is a trend line of the trend lines of the sale prices of each type of unit from the 15 buildings.  Foreclosure sale prices that were unrealistically low (mold problems for example) were not included.  There were 256 sales used in the chart.  The analysis does not try to skew the price trend in any direction.  The data is just the data.

The data indicates that the overall market has tended to stabilize over the past two months with no new lows reported during that time frame. This is the first time that has happened during the past several years.

 However, let’s not get too euphoric and herald that the bottom is really here quite yet.  Several negative factors are still in play. We don’t know how deep the buyer market is.  We don’t know how many short sales and foreclosures are still waiting to come on the market. Financing units in certain buildings remains difficult.

 Let’s just enjoy the first good news for the Panama City Beach condo market since 2005.

 For more market trend information on individual buildings and units and past blogs, visit www.condosaletrends.com.

 Sam Portman

www.condosaletrends.com

 From www.condosaletrends.com

 Your friends at www.condosaletrends.com have updated our Panama City Beach condo market data for end of year 2010.

 The following is our analysis of sales and re-sales from the 75 buildings contained in the www.condosaletrends.com data base.

 There were significantly more sales during the first four months of 2010 compared to 2009 with fewer sales from May through August.  September sales rebounded with more sales than any other year except 2004.  The number of sales tanked in October and rebounded in November with more sales than November 2009.  That was quite a roller coaster.

 There has been lots of hype about the BP oil spill causing all kinds of mayhem in the local market over the summer.  Pointing the finger at only one villain is a slippery slope.  The vast majority of Panama City Beach condos are purchased as second homes with discretionary money.  The two major influences for potential buyers with discretionary money are certainty and uncertainty.  Certainty has a positive influence on potential buyers and uncertainty has a negative influence. Buyers with discretionary money typically have a substantial amount of their net worth tied to the stock market or retirement accounts tied to the stock market. During May 2010 the Dow Jones Industrials lost approximately 11% of their value creating major uncertainty for potential buyers and a negative influence on their willingness to purchase a second home condo with discretionary money that just lost 11% of its value.  In addition, there was the national economic uncertainty, the uncertainty created by a dysfunctional national congress, the uncertainty of condo values, along with the oil spill. It’s a miracle we had any sales at all. It is my opinion that the oil spill certainly had a negative effect on the number of condo sales but only one of several influences. 

The chart below illustrates the number of monthly sales over the past several years.

Sale Price Trend Analysis

 The market trend line is illustrated below.  It is structured to show a sale price trend measured in terms of the percentage sale price as of a particular date.  The starting date used was January 1, 2009 so we could show the price trend since January 2009.  We chose units from a variety of beach side buildings of different ages and sizes that had a sufficient number of sales as to be statistically significant.  All of the sales used in this analysis are from beach side buildings.  There is no collusion of beach side properties and off-beach properties. The buildings include Boardwalk Beach, Calypso, Celadon, Emerald Isle, Grandview East, Grandview at Long Beach, Gulf Crest, Regency Tower, Tidewater, Seychelles, Splash, Sterling Reef, The Summit, Ocean Villa, Twin Palms, and Treasure Island.

 The sale price of each type of unit is only compared to the typical sale price of that particular type of unit as of January 1, 2009.  As an example, a sale of an 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba unit located in the Celadon is only compared to sales of 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba Celadon units.  A unit type with a January 1, 2009 market value of $400,000 is represented as 1 or 100%.   An October 2009, $380,000 sale of that type of unit is depicted as .95 or 95% of the January 1, 2009 sale price.  The chart contained in the following price trend analysis is a trend line of the trend lines of the sale prices of each type of unit from the 15 buildings.  Foreclosure sale prices that were unrealistically low (mold problems for example) were not included.  There were 237 sales used in the chart.  The analysis does not try to skew the price trend in any direction.  The data is just the data. 

Our January 2010 analysis predicted at least a 5% decline in value for all of 2010.  That was obviously too optimistic. The chart indicates a period of relatively stable prices from 8/2009 to 2/2010.  However, since 5/2010 there has been a rapid decrease in typical prices with a loss in value of approximately 15% since May. There are many reasons for the decline.  The two primary reasons are continued uncertainty (see above) in almost every aspect of the purchase decision and the seemingly endless supply of foreclosure and short sale properties.

 As in the past, there are several factors at play that will continue to put downward pressure on current market values. 

 Financing a condo continues to be difficult for the average buyer. 

1. There are still a large number of owners who have a mortgage in excess of $100,000 more than the current market value of their condo.  There is no evidence that the number of foreclosure and short sales will decline in the near term. 
2. The lack of robust national economic growth does not inspire potential buyers to pull the trigger on a large discretionary purchase.
3. Uncertainty in almost every aspect of the purchase decision

 So what’s in store for 2011?  It sounds like a broken record.  The new airport will have a positive effect on the number of rental nights for the area but a minimal effect on condo sale prices.  Foreclosure and short sales will continue to put negative pressure on current market values.  Financing second homes located in Panama City Beach condo buildings will continue to be difficult. And of course the continued uncertainty

 I don’t see any scenario over the short term that will lead to price stability.  Prices will continue to drift downward. When we will reach the bottom is anybody’s guess.

 For more information on individual buildings and units, visit www.condosaletrends.com.

 Sam Portman

www.condosaletrends.com

From www.condosaletrends.com

Your friends at www.condosaletrends.com have been searching for a little good news in the Panama City Beach Condo market.  The beaches look great.  Pier Park looks great. The new airport looks great.  The condo market looks a little ragged. 

The following is our analysis of sales and re-sales from the 75 buildings contained in the condosaletrends.com data base. Developer sales not listed in the MLS were not included because we cannot confirm the existence of or lack of seller concessions. 

There were significantly more sales during the first three months of 2010 compared to 2009 with fewer sales since May.  July sales took a steep downturn with approximately 40% fewer sales than 2009.  August doesn’t look much better. The oil spill didn’t help but the primary reason is due to the weak economy and the generally pessimistic outlook held by potential buyers. 

Foreclosures and short sales continue to be major restraints to price stability. Bank related sales accounted for 47% of the total number of June sales and 60% of July sales.  A majority of the bank related sales were in the newer, beach-side buildings.  To complicate the problem, a large number of new foreclosures and short sales hit the MLS over the past month.  Bank related sales will most likely be with us for the next couple of years.  In one newer beachside building that has been particularly hard hit by bank sales, 34% of the current owners are $100,000 or more upside down.  Some are $300,000 upside down.  Many of these owners will finally throw in the towel.

The market trend line is illustrated below.  It is structured to show a sale price trend measured in terms of the percentage sale price as of a particular date.  The starting date used was January 1, 2009 so we could show the price trend since January 2009.  We chose units from a variety of beach side buildings of different ages and sizes that had a sufficient number of sales as to be statistically significant.  All of the sales used in this analysis are from beach side buildings.  There is no collusion of beach side properties and off-beach properties. The buildings include Boardwalk Beach, Calypso, Celadon, Emerald Isle, Grandview East, Grandview at Long Beach, Gulf Crest, Regency Tower, Tidewater, Seychelles, Splash, Sterling Reef, The Summit, Ocean Villa, Twin Palms, and Treasure Island. 

The sale price of each type of unit is only compared to the typical sale price of that particular type of unit as of January 1, 2009.  As an example, a sale of an 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba unit located in the Celadon is only compared to sales of 846 SF, 1BR/2Ba Celadon units.  A unit type with a January 1, 2009 market value of $400,000 is represented as 1 or 100%.   An October 2009, $380,000 sale of that type of unit is depicted as .95 or 95% of the January 1, 2009 sale price.  The chart contained in the following price trend analysis is a trend line of the trend lines of the sale prices of each type of unit from the 14 buildings.  Foreclosure sale prices that were unrealistically low (mold problems for example) were not included.  There were 187 sales used in the chart.  The analysis does not try to skew the price trend in any direction.  The data is just the data.

 Our January 2010 analysis predicted at least a 5% decline in value for all of 2010.  That was obviously too optimistic. We have blown past a 5% decline during the first seven months of 2010. The data indicates that the typical beach side, Panama City Beach condo lost approximately 13 percent of its value during the past 12 months and 9% in the last seven months.  The rate of depreciation appears to have accelerated over the past three months.  Of course there are exceptions, especially with units that were sold exclusively through the developer. 

As in the past, there are several factors at play that will continue to put downward pressure on current market values.  

1. Financing a condo continues to be difficult for the average buyer. 
2. There are still a large number of owners who have a mortgage in excess of $100,000 more than the current market value of their condo.  There is no evidence that the number of foreclosure and short sales will decline in the near term. 
3. The lack of robust national economic growth does not inspire potential buyers to pull the trigger on a large discretionary purchase. 

So what’s in store for the rest of 2010?  It sounds like a broken record.  The new airport will have a positive effect on the number of rental nights for the area but a minimal effect on condo sale prices.  Foreclosure and short sales will continue to put negative pressure on current market values.  Financing second homes located in Panama City Beach condo buildings will continue to be difficult. The number of sales will continue to be volatile. 

Panama City Beach condos will continue to lose value. The question is how far prices fall before the bottom.  I’m afraid to speculate.  A good friend of mine likes to say “when you think it can’t get any worse, it does”.  The vultures and bottom feeder buyers are even scared. Purchase prices in this environment appear to be based on perceived risk. The lack of a robust economy is one risk factor. The potential of additional price declines is another.  However the overriding factor preventing a stabilized market is the seeming endless supply of bank related sales.

The market cannot stabilize until all of the properties that are held by owners that owe substantially more than current values and do not have the financial ability or the will to continue ownership are transferred to new owners. 

For more information on individual buildings and units, visit www.condosaletrends.com. 

Sam Portman

www.condosaletrends.com