Patriots Sideline

NFL Draft 2011: A Moderately Offensive Proposal

2011-02-06T21:42:00.001-05:00

It is a melancholy object to those who watch the Patriots, when they see these other teams in black, gold, and green fighting for the Lombardi Trophy. Instead of seeing the Patriots at their rightful place at the top of the league, the NFL is forced to put the second tier teams in the spotlight; two teams the Red, Blue and Silver had defeated during the regular season. I think it is agreed by all parties that the recent struggle by the Patriots present a very great grievance; and, therefore, whoever could find out a fair, cheap, and easy method of bringing the Patriots back to the top of the league would deserve so well of the public as to have his statue set up for a preserver of the league and franchise.

As to my own part, having thought of this subject for a couple hours, and maturely weighed the several schemes of other projectors, I have found them to have overlooked an important variable. It is true that the Patriots could do well with an improved pass rush and it is also true that the team could benefit from an improved defensive line. However, one fact has been swept under the rug. With this fact, I propose that the Patriots use the majority of the early draft picks to select offensive players.

What is this fact? We all know that the Patriots have been regular season warriors. Their flaws have only become apparent in the post season. As a result, let's review the Patriots' most recent playoff games. Here are the scores from the past five playoff games:

Patriots 31 - Jaguars 20
Patriots 21 - Chargers 12
Giants 17 - Patriots 14
Ravens 33 - Patriots 14
Jets 28 - Patriots 21

What do we notice? The Patriots offense has not broken 21 points in their previous four games. The Patriots defense has done a pretty good job.

Wait a minute- the defense has done a good job? Yes.

Click to read the rest of the article »

State of the Patriots: Defensive Line

2011-02-01T22:25:00.003-05:00

Players on the Roster:

Ron Brace (DE)
Landon Cohen (DL)
Brandon Deaderick (DE)
Marlon Favorite (NT)
Kyle Love (DL)
Myron Pryor (DL)
Darryl Richard (DL)
Ty Warren (DE)
Kade Weston (DL)
Vince Wilfork (DL)
Mike Wright (DL)

Free Agents:

Gerard Warren (DE)

The Patriots appeared stacked on the defensive line at first look. However, most realized that the Patriots' depth was almost nonexistent as the unit limped into the post-season. Players like Ty Warren, Wright, Weston, Richard, Pryor, and Brace were all unavailable for the playoffs, while Favorite was signed during the playoffs. That means that only Gerard Warren, Wilfork, Love, Deaderick and Cohen were available- and Wilfork was the only player with over a season with the Patriots. Basically, this unit was ravaged with injuries.

Click to read the rest of the article »

State of the Patriots: Safety

2011-01-23T21:48:00.000-05:00

Players on the Roster:

SS Sergio Brown
SS Pat Chung
FS Bret Lockett
FS Brandon Meriweather
FS James Sanders
FS Ross Ventrone

Free Agents:

SS Brandon McGowan
SS Jarrad Page
SS Josh Barrett (RFA)

At first glance, it appears that the Patriots are set in terms of depth in the safety position. All three of the usual starters, Chung, Meriweather and Sanders, remain on the roster and while the next player up is a free agent (Page), Sergio Brown showed a lot of promise early in the season. McGowan doesn't really have a spot on the roster since Chung has effectively replaced him on the roster- and linebacker Gary Guyton has taken over the coverage duty of tight ends and has done an excellent job.

After further examination, however, the Patriots may look at investing in a free safety in the draft.

Click to read the rest of the article »

ESPN Radio: Reggie Jackson, Joe Namath Discuss the Jets and Smack Talk

2011-01-14T02:05:00.001-05:00

Baseball great Reggie Jackson and former Super Bowl winning quarterback Joe Namath go on ESPN Radio to talk about the Jets and Patriots. It's quite an interesting listen, if you have a half hour of time, to hear some former athletes talk about this match-up. Here are some notes:

Reggie Jackson doesn't know much about football players, but he seems like a football fan and it's interesting to hear him speak so passionately. He thinks Antonio Cromartie needs to stop talking until he wins something and that he should follow Darrelle Revis' lead and do the talking on the field.

Jackson thinks the Jets are spending too much time talking about the Patriots and wasting precious preparation time. "Only the wannabes try and make predictions."

Jackson appreciates Ray Lewis, of the Ravens, and how he talks about his own team and how well his own team is going to do, instead of talking about the other team.

Jackson doesn't think Tom Brady will focus on attacking Cromartie, but will instead attack the holes on the Jets defense. He loves the Patriots attitude of "coming to play."

Click to read the rest of the article »

The Power of Swagger and Doubt

2011-01-13T23:15:00.001-05:00

During the off-season, and the pre-season, the New York Jets had been crowned Super Bowl favorites. They had added key pieces to their squad, such as safety Brodney Pool, cornerback Antonio Cromartie, wide receiver Santonio Holmes and running back LaDainian Tomlinson. They had managed to extend contracts with franchise left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and All Pro center Nick Mangold, and they came to terms a little later with All Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis. This was a team that made it to the AFC Championship game the season before as young quarterback Mark Sanchez played not like a liability, but more like an asset. On paper, this was a great looking team.

Coach Rex Ryan brought plenty of swagger to this team- and why shouldn't this team shoot for the sky? They were the front runners in the AFC before the first game of the season as the coach boasted about the skill level of his squad. He made clear that the Jets were the team to beat and the players bought into that mind set. Throughout the HBO show Hard Knocks, the Jets trumpeted their skill and told the world that the league was theirs to lose.

Click to read the rest of the article »

Teams Looking for Head Coaches: Good Luck!

2011-01-13T12:10:00.000-05:00

It's the time of the year when all of the hapless teams start looking for new head coaching candidates. The question at hand is: what coach will best lead my team to a Super Bowl victory? Well, let's try and figure out if a pattern exists amongst successful coaches.

Here's a list of coaches that have made multiple playoff trips in the past 5 seasons:

Bill Belichick
Jim Caldwell
Brad Childress
Tom Coughlin
Jeff Fisher
John Harbaugh
Mike Holmgren
Mike McCarthy
Sean Payton
Wade Phillips
Andy Reid
Rex Ryan
Lovie Smith
Mike Smith
Mike Tomlin
Norv Turner
Ken Whisenhunt

What can we learn from looking at these coaches? A fair amount.

Click to read the rest of the article »

Playoffs Jets vs Patriots: How to Stop the Jets Run Game?

2011-01-12T15:30:00.004-05:00

We've looked at how the Patriots can beat the Jets by stopping their run game, but how can the Patriots accomplish that goal? Let's look at what the Patriots did in the Week 13 match-up.

The Patriots opened the game in a non-traditional heavy 4-2-5 sub-defense. Here's the line-up:

ROLB: Jermaine Cunningham
DT: Gerard Warren
NT: Vince Wilfork
LOLB: Tully Banta-Cain
RLB: Jerod Mayo
LLB - Gary Guyton
RCB - Kyle Arrington
NCB - Darius Butler
S - James Sanders
S - Brandon Meriweather
LCB - Devin McCourty

Looking at this line-up, it's clear that the Patriots had two focuses: 1) Stop the run with the front four and Mayo, and 2) Take away the pass with the five players in the secondary and Guyton. Of course, this time around the Patriots will most likely feature different personnel- so let's take a look at what happened the first time around and what should happen on Sunday.
Click to read the rest of the article »

Playoffs Jets vs Patriots: The Magical Number Is 129

2011-01-12T13:10:00.000-05:00

Everyone knows that the Jets are a running team that occasionally throws the ball to keep opposing defenses from stacking the box. I propose something simple, that will not only guarantee the Patriots stay in the game, but almost certainly result in a victory.

Hold the Jets to under 129 yards rushing.

Simple, right? The Patriots defense have been allowing under 100 yards/game for the last half of the season, so they should be able to do it again? Well, the Patriots have been unable to keep the Jets under 129 yards on the ground this season and now they'll be trying to achieve the ~~feet~~ feat without Ron Brace.

Why 129? Well, the Patriots have won every game (eleven in total) in which they held opposing teams to fewer than 129 yards on the ground. Excluding games against elite quarterbacks (Chargers, Colts, Ravens [?]), the Patriots won handily. What teams gained over 129 yards? Browns, Jets x2, Packers and Round 1 Bills- games that either resulted in losses or went down to the wire (other than Jets Round 2, but that's why it's important to stop them!). Fortunately for the Patriots, the Jets do not have an elite quarterback, which means they'll have to run the ball in order to win the game.

Click to read the rest of the article »

Playoffs Jets vs Patriots: Who Has the Edge [Defense]?

2011-01-12T02:17:00.000-05:00

A continuation of my review of the Jets vs the Patriots, it's time to evaluate the defenses of these two power houses. The Patriots have been playing stellar defense over the past eight games and the Jets are right behind them in the rankings, making this a match-up of two of the hottest defenses in the league. The Jets don't give up yards, but the Patriots are more opportunistic. Let's look at the personnel.

Defensive Line - The Jets have the aging Shaun Ellis at defensive end, who has become more ineffective as the season has progressed. However, he plays next to the nose tackle Sione Pouha who does a fantastic job of clogging the middle of the field and opening lanes for the middle linebackers. Next to Pouha is Mike Devito at defensive end, who is a strong tackler. None of these players are threats to reach the quarterback, but they do their job of setting edges and allowing the linebackers to make players.

The Patriots have the aging Gerard Warren, who has been taken care of with limited snaps to make sure he was fresh for the playoffs. He does a solid job of setting the edge and generating pressure, but he isn't a real game changer. Next to Warren is All-Universe nose tackle Vince Wilfork, who is the best defensive lineman on either team. If he plays defensive end on certain sets, the Jets will surely run to the opposite side. He is at his best in the middle to force the Jets to make plays away from him. Finally, the next defensive lineman off the depth chart would be rookies Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick. Deaderick has been in the dog house, so it's assumed that Love will be the top player on the field. Love is a solid player, but he's a definite liability because of his lack of experience at shedding double teams and watching two gaps.

Edge: Push. The Patriots have the best player on the board by far in Wilfork, but the Jets have the next two in Pouha and Devito. The Jets have the better run stopping line, but the Patriots have a superior line at generating pressure on the quarterback.

Click to read the rest of the article »

Playoffs Jets vs Patriots: Who Has the Edge [Offense]?

2011-01-11T02:43:00.001-05:00

The Patriots are set to face the Jets in the Razor on Sunday evening for the third round of the season. The two teams split the regular season series, which makes this game count for all of the marbles. Winner goes on, loser goes home for the summer. Let's look at how the two teams match-up.

Quarterback -The Patriots have a clear advantage with Tom Brady at the helm. The Jets have Mark Sanchez, who is a solid quarterback in the clutch, yet struggles for the rest of the game. His statistics in the cold? 59.8% completion rate, 2 TDs, 5 INTs, 6.06 YPA. His statistics in December? 53.8% completion rate, 1 TD, 5 INTs, 5.73 YPA. Sanchez is not a cold weather quarterback and the weather is going to be frigid. The Patriots are going to try and force the Jets to win with Sanchez, which will allow the defense to shut down the run. Hopefully Sanchez will continue to struggle in the cold.

Edge: Patriots.
Click to read the rest of the article »

7/8 Remaining Playoff Teams Playing Great Defense

2011-01-10T01:36:00.000-05:00

We recently looked at how well the Patriots were performing on defense during the second half of the season and how that has helped them grab homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Well, they're not the only team that's playing exceptional defense. Here's the defensive ranks from the second half of the season of the remaining teams in the playoffs:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2 (tie). Green Bay Packers + New England Patriots
4. New York Jets
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Chicago Bears
9. Atlanta Falcons
28. Seattle Seahawks.

Looking at those rankings*, seven out of the eight remaining teams were playing an elite level of defense as the season closed. It's definitely not a coincidence that these are the remaining teams because defense wins championships. The ranks of the eliminated squads?

12. New Orleans Saints
13. Kansas City Chiefs
15. Philadelphia Eagles
23. Indianapolis Colts

Once again, it's no coincidence that the lesser defensive teams were beaten. Hopefully the Patriots can continue to play opportunistic defense and stop every offense they have to face.
Click to read the rest of the article »

The Patriots Receivers Match Up Well Against the Jets Secondary

2011-01-09T18:54:00.000-05:00

Last season, the Jets faced the Colts in the AFC Championship Game and they played a strong first half, only to see the game slip away with Manning's arm leading the Colts to victory. During the off-season, most people wrote off the Patriots and the Jets declared that they were building their team to beat the Colts. During Week 2 of this season, the Patriots' vertical offense was shut down by the Jets as Antonio Cromartie shut down Randy Moss, causing the Patriots' offense to stall.

My, how things have changed.

The Jets feature one of the most dominant secondaries in the league, with Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Kyle Wilson, Drew Coleman and Dwight Lowery as the cornerbacks on the roster. While each cornerback has their respective strengths, each has their own weakness. Read about how the Patriots match-up against the Jets after the jump.

Click to read the rest of the article »

New England Patriots 2011 Draft Top 50 Big Board

2011-01-09T14:55:00.000-05:00

Even though the Patriots are still in the playoffs, I can't help but look towards the draft, where the Patriots own six of the first 96 selections, and three in the first 33. The Patriots have needs at some positions (offensive line, defensive line, outside linebacker, running back) and are well off at other positions (inside linebacker, cornerback, quarterback), which affects which players I place on my draft board. Here's my list of draft needs:

1. Defensive End - The prototypical Patriots DE is over 6-3 and weighs no less than 295 lbs, in order to have the mass to watch two gaps.
2. Offensive Guard - The Patriots have no idea at the current strength of their guard position. Logan Mankins could walk and that leaves Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell as the two guards on the roster; an upgrade is needed. They must be between 6-2 and 6-4 so they have the size, but they don't block Brady's throwing motion, and be between 290-315 lbs.
3. Offensive Tackle - Matt Light's contract is up, but the Patriots might sign him to a short term deal, much like the deal they gave guard Stephen Neal. Nick Kaczur will be returning from injury, but there's absolutely room for improvement. They must be 6-4 or taller and weigh between 305-320 lbs.
4. Outside Linebacker - The Patriots may have found a gem in Eric Moore, but they could always have room for a dominant pass rusher. Jermaine Cunningham has promise, Rob Ninkovich is a quality cover outside linebacker, and Tully Banta-Cain can generate pressure. Still, none of these players are dominant and a game changing OLB could make the defense even stronger. They must be between 6-2 and 6-5 and weigh between 250-270 lbs.
5. Center - Dan Koppen is still the field general and he's gotten better as the year's grown older, but it's unknown how long he can remain in a Patriots uniform. A center of the future could be drafted in the middle rounds (unlike Ted Larsen who was drafted at the end of the 2010 Draft) and they could be ready to take Koppen's spot in a couple years. They must be 6-2 to 6-4 and weigh between 290 and 310 lbs.

The least important positions are quarterback and inside linebacker where the Patriots have no room on their roster for additional players. Let's take a look at the Big Board after the jump!

Click to read the rest of the article »

2nd Half of the Season: How Does the Patriots Defense Compare?

2011-01-08T21:31:00.001-05:00

A lot has been said about the Patriots’ youthful defense and how much they’ve grown over the course of the season. It’s clear that this defense is different from the defense as the beginning of the season and I’ve already written about how the secondary has clearly evolved. But what about the defense as a whole? How has the defensive unit been producing and playing over the last half of the season? It seems convenient that the Browns debacle was the 8th game of the season, which set up for the Patriots 8-0 close to the year. How have the Patriots played during this period?
Here are some facts:

The Patriots are the only team to go 8-0 in the second half of the season.
Six of those victories came against teams who finished the season 4-4 or greater, meaning the Patriots had success against strong teams.
The Patriots have such a terrible “yards against” defense because they score so much- the opposing team always gets the ball back with lots of yards in front of them.

So how has the Patriots defense played as a unit in the second half of the season? You’d be surprised at how well they stack up to the rest of the league.
Click to read the rest of the article »

Rating the 2011 NFL Draft Quarterback Prospects

2011-01-08T21:29:00.000-05:00

A week ago, I made a post about a metric I believed determined the NFL readiness of a NCAA prospect. In the comment section, OBrienSchofieldismyHero asked if I could rate some of the other potential NFL prospects. In addition to rating his lovechild Scott Tolzien, I decided to rate many of the potential draftees in the 2011 NFL Draft. Most of the players are seniors because of how few juniors have declared for the NFL Draft, but I decided to include the top Juniors. Also, even though Andrew Luck stated that he would return to Stanford, I decided to rate him as well. A lot of the scores are different from the original piece because I’ve standardized the scoring in order to keep every player on a similar scale. It has to be said that the scoring favors those players with multiple years of starting experience because that’s one of the factors of these scores- the more NCAA experience, the better chance of NFL success.

The scores do not mean that a player is a better player. It just is an indicator of how NFL ready they are. The greater the number, the less of a chance for a bust. Here’s the scoring table:

95+: Immediate NFL Star
90+: Immediate NFL Starter
85+: High Level Competitor for NFL Starter
80+: Low Level Competitor for NFL Starter
75+: Immediate NFL Back-Up
70+: High Level Competitor for NFL Back-Up
65+: Low Level Competitor for NFL Back-Up
60+: 3rd Quarterback and Roster Bubble Player
60-: Training Camp Body

Now when you look at the scores, keep in mind that the score represents where the player is at this current point in time. Andrew Luck, if drafted, would have been an NFL Starter, but I believe he would have produced at the level of an NFL Back-Up. That is not because Andrew Luck is not an NFL Starter, but because he hasn’t developed enough as a quarterback to immediately step into the NFL and produce at a high level.
Click to read the rest of the article »

How to Draft an NFL Quarterback

2011-01-08T21:24:00.000-05:00

This past semester I took a class called “The Business of Sports” where I was asked to write a paper on any sports subject that I wanted. Naturally, I decided to write something about football. Looking around the league, it was interesting to see how many teams have drafted quarterbacks that do not pan into NFL successes. Quarterbacks like JaMarcus Russell flame out, while Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn never get a chance. Other players like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady thrive. What’s the reasoning? Is there some way of predicting NFL success by just looking at college success?

It turns out, yeah, there’s a way of determining a quarterback’s potential success. Others have already written on the subject and they’ve done a pretty solid job of evaluating this subject. However, I wanted to come up with a new metric, so I came up with a 100 point scoring system, based on 5 qualifications. When I wrote the paper, I hadn’t fully ironed out my scoring system, so some of my numbers have changed, but the point still remains on the prospects.

The paper is over 20 pages. It’s copied and pasted from Microsoft Word so it might have an odd format, but it’s all after the jump. Be ready. I hope you enjoy reading!
Click to read the rest of the article »

No Game is Guaranteed.

2011-01-08T20:59:00.004-05:00

If any player on the Patriots needed to have their heads screwed on straight, all they had to do was watch the (7-9) Seattle Seahawks win a shootout against the (11-5) defending champions New Orleans Saints. The Seahawks racked 41 points against the Saints’ defense and managed to beat down one of the NFC favorites. What can be learned?

Winning on the road isn’t easy.
No game is guaranteed.

The Patriots are lucky that they slugged their way through the regular season to claim homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, meaning that Lesson #1 does not apply. However, Lesson #2 must be examined and then re-examined.

No game is guaranteed.

The Saints had spanked the Seahawks in the regular season. The Seahawks only had two wins outside of the NFC West and those were at the beginning of the season and they were demolished in every game against a strong opponent. Then the Saints marched into Qwest Stadium and the Seahawks somehow found a way to win. Teams are playing their best football right now, regardless of their regular season performance. There’s no room for error.

The Patriots are 0-0. They are starting from scratch as a do-or-die season begins. Even though the Patriots’ offense was the best in the league and the defense was playing like one of the best, none of that success matters. The Patriots just need to do their job and perform in the playoffs. There are no guarantees anymore. The Patriots need to play their error-free game of football and do their talking on the field.