NSSPI News Digest Feed

Bad Intelligence Leading Us to War Again?

Fri, 14 Aug 2015 20:36:48 GMT

On August 6, Jeb Bush did us the tremendous favor of reminding us of the bad intelligence that led us into a strategic disaster in Iraq that has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands—nearly 5,000 of them American. Enter David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), who (inadvertently) exposed the questionable basis for the Bloomberg column. ISIS published three commercially available satellite images of a “parking lot,” located close to a building that Albright has long claimed was the site of proscribed nuclear-weapons-related experiments before 2003. Two of the three images—captured during July 12, 19, and 26, respectively—were captured after the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Program of Action signed in Geneva July 14 and presumably covered the period referred to in the ODNI’s briefing. And, like the U.S. government satellite imagery, all three of the photos that ISIS released were taken “in broad daylight.” So what did the latter photos reveal?

Decoding The Iran Agreement: The Podcast

Fri, 14 Aug 2015 20:36:02 GMT

Listen to our teleconference featuring arms control experts Olli Heinonen, Joan Rohlfing, and Frank von Hippel, moderated by The Atlantic’s James Fallows.

Decoding the Iran Agreement, Part 2: Jon Wolfsthal

Fri, 14 Aug 2015 20:35:33 GMT

It's "fantasy," to believe that the United States could reject the recently concluded agreement limiting Iran's nuclear programs, return to the negotiating table, and win a more favorable deal. So argued Jon Wolfsthal, the National Security Council's senior director for arms control and nonproliferation, in a Thursday teleconference sponsored by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The teleconference, titled "Decoding the Iran Agreement: View from the White House," was second in a series covering the nuclear agreement.

Pyongsan and Sillamäe

Fri, 14 Aug 2015 20:35:06 GMT

I am delighted that my article on the modernization of the uranium mill at Pyongsan is getting so much attention. I do, however, have to register a small reservation — partly about the coverage but mostly about my own role in it. I study nuclear weapons, so I am first and foremost interested in what the operation of the uranium mill means for North Korea’s nuclear programs. It is natural that I would focus on the possibility that the modernization of the mill means more North Korean nuclear weapons, which is a definitely a bad thing.

Flawed Analysis by Robert Kelley in IHS Jane’s 360

Thu, 13 Aug 2015 20:04:24 GMT

Robert Kelley has written a misleading, inaccurate report in IHS Jane’s 360 about a suspect site at the Parchin military complex and our institute’s analysis of that site. Kelley is wrong about the most obvious fact of this case. U.S. intelligence, subsequently confirmed by ISIS with satellite imagery, detected renewed activity at the site after many weeks of almost no activity there. This activity triggered concern that Iran may be trying to sanitize the site prior to the taking of environmental samples aimed at helping determine if Iran had conducted nuclear weapons related work at the site with high explosives. The suspect activity is alleged to have likely involved a specialized neutron initiator made from small quantities of deuterium and uranium.

North Korea Will Pursue 'Defensive' Nuclear Program: Envoy

Thu, 13 Aug 2015 20:03:56 GMT

North Korea will pursue its "defensive," nuclear program as long as it feels threatened by the United States, its U.N. disarmament envoy in Geneva told Reuters on Thursday. In a rare interview, Ambassador So Se Pyong also denounced the latest joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises, due to start next week, saying they fanned tensions on the divided peninsula as it marks the 70th anniversary of liberation from Japanese occupation at the end of World War Two.

The Iran-North Korea Axis of Atomic Weapons?

Thu, 13 Aug 2015 20:03:32 GMT

As U.S. lawmakers debate the Iran nuclear deal, they are rightly concerned about Iran’s refusal to disclose its past work on nuclear weapons. Not only does this refusal deprive inspectors of a baseline for monitoring Iran’s compliance; it also deprives Congress of information about the networks that Iran’s regime might most readily employ should it choose to secretly continue its quest for the nuclear bomb.

Why it’s Impossible to Hide Nuclear Work in 24 Days – or 24 Years

Thu, 13 Aug 2015 20:02:33 GMT

One of the most misleading distortions being floated by political opponents of the Iran nuclear deal is the “24-day,” loophole meme: Iran would be able to hide all evidence of any nefarious nuclear weapons work during the 24 days it may take inspectors to gain access to a suspicious site. For starters, International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors would have continuous daily access to all Iran’s declared nuclear facilities. If Iran does not allow anytime inspections of any declared site, it could result in the re-imposition — or “snapback” — of sanctions. The 24-day rule applies only to undeclared suspect sites anywhere in the country. Why 24 days? Iran and the atomic energy agency first would have a maximum of 14 days to come to an understanding about how to carry out the new inspections,

Concern about Iran’s Parchin Facility Not Supported by Images

Wed, 12 Aug 2015 21:42:36 GMT

An Iranian parking lot labeled as a site of “intense concern,” by an influential Washington research group hasn’t shown any signs of change for at least five years, according to satellite imagery and analysts. The Institute for Science and International Security, or ISIS, said in an Aug. 7 research note that Iran’s decision to park 20 vehicles at the Parchin military complex facility was provocative. However, according to 36 satellite images spanning five years, there has always been an average of about 20 automobiles parked at the site since concern over the Parchin complex grew in 2011.

Water Supply to the Syrian Bombed Site

Wed, 12 Aug 2015 20:47:07 GMT

In 2007 a building at a site in northeast Syria called Al Kibar (AK) was bombed. The building presumably was a nuclear reactor under construction as assessed by the US Intelligence community with low confidence. The building apparently was bombed by Israel although it has never publicly taken credit. If the building was “very likely,” a gas cooled graphite moderated reactor, as assessed by IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano in his May 2011 report, a cooling system for the reactor core is an essential requirement. As there are no cooling towers visible at the site, a large pipeline to the nearby Euphrates River is suspected as providing the cooling water for the “reactor”. There is such a pipeline link but it is more complex than described by the IAEA and the actual cooling system opens up new questions about this site and another site.

Recent Imagery Suggests Increased Uranium Production in North Korea, Probably for Expanding Nuclear Weapons Stockpile and Reactor Fuel

Wed, 12 Aug 2015 20:46:41 GMT

North Korea is expanding its capacity to mine and mill natural uranium. Recent commercial satellite imagery shows that, over the past year, Pyongyang has begun to refurbish a major mill located near Pyongsan that turns uranium ore into yellowcake. The renovation suggests that North Korea is preparing to expand the production of uranium from a nearby mine.

Construction Continues at Pakistan’s Khushab Site

Wed, 12 Aug 2015 20:46:14 GMT

Construction activity in the southwest corner of Pakistan’s Khushab nuclear site is progressing. However, it is still too early to make a final judgment on the nature of the construction. Signatures visible through recent commercial satellite imagery do not permit a definitive assessment of the site’s purpose. ISIS will continue to monitor this construction.

North Korea’s Development of a Nuclear Weapons Strategy

Wed, 12 Aug 2015 20:44:44 GMT

For almost six decades, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) has pursued a nuclear program that has gradually developed in size, complexity and capabilities from a small scientific research effort into a comprehensive effort to produce nuclear weapons. At present, North Korea is estimated to possess an inventory of 10-16 nuclear weapons that could rapidly expand by 2020. As this nuclear program has evolved, the North Korean leadership and the Korean People’s Army (KPA) have also gradually developed a nuclear strategy for deterrence that appears to have progressed from viewing these weapons as primarily political tools to deter an attack from the United States to operational strategic defensive weapons to inflict unacceptable losses upon attacking forces and assured retaliation, and possibly today, into viewing nuclear weapons as both strategic political weapons and for use in a range of strategic, operational and “battlefield” (i.e., tactical) situations during wartime.

Raytheon to Work on Multi-Warhead Interceptor

Wed, 12 Aug 2015 20:43:29 GMT

Tucson-based Raytheon Missile Systems and Lockheed Martin have been awarded contracts to revive the idea of a multiple-warhead ballistic missile interceptor. According to a Pentagon contract notice issued Tuesday, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency awarded Raytheon and Lockheed similar contracts of about $10 million each to define concepts for the “Multi-Object Kill Vehicle,” designed to destroy several objects in one threat area with advanced sensor, flight-control and communications technologies. Kill vehicles are essentially non-explosive warheads, destroying their targets by high-speed impact.

Link Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation Efforts

Tue, 11 Aug 2015 21:07:50 GMT

Visiting Hiroshima or Nagasaki on the anniversary of the atomic bombings of the two cities is always a moving experience. To be present in Hiroshima on the 70th anniversary of the twin tragedies was especially poignant. The Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament (APLN) and the Hiroshima Round Table share the vision of a world freed of the threat or use — and the very existence — of nuclear weapons. There is also some overlap of personnel in the two groups. This year the APLN (whose secretariat I head) and the Hiroshima Round Table decided to hold back-to-back sequential meetings in order to facilitate members of one group being able to observe the proceedings and discussions of the other, to mutual benefit.

New Evidence of Japan's Effort to Build Atom Bomb at the End of WWII

Wed, 05 Aug 2015 22:00:43 GMT

In August 1945, the U.S. dropped atom bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Now, as Japan and the rest of the world prepare to mark seven decades since the end of World War II in the Pacific, new evidence has emerged about the Japanese military's own secret program to build a nuclear weapon.

Japan's Hiroshima to Mark 70 Years since Atomic Bomb

Wed, 05 Aug 2015 21:56:57 GMT

Residents in the Japanese city of Hiroshima are preparing to mark 70 years since the first atomic bomb was dropped on their city by a US aircraft. A ceremony, attended by PM Shinzo Abe, will be held at Hiroshima's memorial park before thousands of lanterns are released on the city's Motoyasu river. The bombing - and a second one on Nagasaki three days later - is credited with bringing to an end World War Two.

North Korea Has No Interest in Iranian-Like Nuclear Disarmament Deal

Tue, 21 Jul 2015 21:07:45 GMT

North Korea said Tuesday that it’s not interested in an Iran-type nuclear disarmament deal, saying it won’t abandon its atomic weapons as long as the United States maintains hostile policies toward the country. The North’s nuclear deterrent is “not a plaything to be put on the negotiating table,” an unidentified Foreign Ministry spokesman said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency. It was the country’s first official response to the Iran nuclear accord reached earlier this month.

Reviewing a Review Conference: Can There Ever Be a Successful NPT RevCon?

Tue, 09 Jun 2015 00:04:36 GMT

Every time an NPT Review Conference (RevCon) ends without a final consensus document, it is seen as a serious failure and a sign that the Treaty may be falling apart. So far, this has been an exaggeration. Expectations were already low before this year’s RevCon ended without agreement. It is clear that the NPT has been under pressure for a long time. State parties have been disappointed with the Treaty for over two decades for diverging reasons: many want more disarmament, others want more effective non-proliferation. Since 1995 every RevCon has triggered a combination of hope and fear, later followed by disappointment.

No Respect for U.S. Non-Proliferation

Fri, 29 May 2015 00:34:22 GMT

It seems like the whole world has been chastising the United States lately for not cutting its nuclear arsenal deeply enough, quickly enough. In response, you could almost hear the U.S. representatives at the recently concluded United Nations Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference channel Rodney Dangerfield’s famous one-liner, “I don’t get no respect!” If there is one nation that deserves respect when it comes to disarmament and nonproliferation, however, it is the United States. No other nation has been as willing and transparent in its nuclear cuts as the United States. So why is there still so much denunciation?

Rose Gottemoeller on the NPT Review Conference, Russian Saber Rattling, and More

Mon, 18 May 2015 22:34:04 GMT

The month-long Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference now under way in New York has provided a stage for a long-simmering drama that revolves around one pillar of the treaty: a promise by nuclear-weapons countries to disarm. Many of the 185 non-nuclear weapons countries that signed the treaty, thereby agreeing to forego nuclear weapons development, are restive. Their disquiet has been stoked and organized to a degree during three recent international conferences that focused on the humanitarian effects of nuclear weapons, but were also seen as forums where discussion of the possibility of a treaty to ban nuclear weapons could begin. Though it supports an eventual goal of a nuclear weapons-free world, the United States opposes such a ban.

Slow Disarmament Progress Will Hamper NPT Review

Fri, 24 Apr 2015 21:12:06 GMT

Representatives of states and non-governmental organizations will gather in New York from 27 April for four weeks to discuss the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This quinquennial meeting, known as the Review Conference, or RevCon, provides a forum for NPT signatories to assess progress made in implementing the treaty and to recommend future efforts to strengthen its three pillars: non-proliferation, disarmament and peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The 2015 RevCon is likely to be a divisive affair, with significant areas of friction having developed since the last meeting five years ago.

New Dawn for the NPT

Thu, 23 Apr 2015 22:57:00 GMT

On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will travel to New York to convince the world that the United States is working toward a world free of nuclear weapons. He has a stronger case than you might think. The occasion is the review conference for the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which has been convened every five years since its entry into force in 1970. World diplomats will work to ensure that the treaty’s basic bargain is still sound: as long as the five original nuclear powers work to eliminate their nuclear arsenals, the rest of the world’s states promise not to develop their own. This year, the nonproliferation regime faces a major test: Fed up with the slowest nuclear arms reductions since the end of the Cold War, a coalition of states are moving to draft a global ban on nuclear weapons. In response, the United States will attempt to assure the world that it is making progress toward a world free of nuclear weapons. In fact, the Obama administration’s record on disarmament has been strong, but it will have to work harder to revitalize the fragile NPT.

ICBMs off the Books under Treaty

Tue, 31 Mar 2015 20:52:01 GMT

The Air Force has eliminated 104 deactivated intercontinental ballistic missiles under budget and ahead of schedule. The eliminated silos include 50 at Malmstrom Air Force Base that were previously operated by the 564th Missile Squadron, which was deactivated in 2008. The deactivated silos have to be eliminated by February 2018. At Malmstrom, the final 10 were eliminated in August and entered a 60-day observation period to allow Russia to verify their elimination.

The Dangerous Disregard of Nuclear Experts for One Another

Thu, 26 Mar 2015 22:41:48 GMT

This year’s meeting of the International Studies Association (ISA) in New Orleans began on the first day of Lent. Noting that there were no less than fifteen panels on nuclear weapons issues on the ISA program, one speaker declared that we are in the midst of an academic “renaissance in nuclear studies.” But much of the “renaissance” looks more like recycling than rejuvenation, and it has created an intellectual terrain that is oddly partitioned.

Why the ‘Nuclear Utopians’ Are Wrong

Tue, 17 Mar 2015 00:47:45 GMT

A debate over the future of the U.S. nuclear arsenal is at a pivotal moment. Last month the Obama administration proposed a budget that calls for modernization of the “nuclear triad” of missiles, submarines and bombers. This is crucial because since the end of the Cold War the U.S. nuclear arsenal has been cut by 80% and after decades of neglect each leg of the triad is aging.

Is America's Nuclear Arsenal Dying?

Wed, 04 Mar 2015 21:56:12 GMT

As Russia and other nations around the world flex their “nuclear muscles,” when it comes to the United States, maintaining a credible nuclear force is certainly a tough task. Challenges include: declining research, development and acquisition budgets; uncertain prospects for modernization, and an American public that lacks a clear understanding how nuclear weapons contribute to national security. The U.S. nuclear force has prevented a great power war for seven decades. Yet the commitment to maintain a credible nuclear force appears shaky.

5 Nations Want Exploratory Talks on N.K. Nuke Program: Seoul Envoy

Wed, 25 Feb 2015 20:24:51 GMT

Five countries to the six-party talks on ending North Korea's nuclear program have reached a consensus on the need to have exploratory dialogue to gauge Pyongyang's willingness to denuclearize, Seoul's top nuke envoy said. The remarks by Hwang Joon-kook came after he and his Russian counterpart, Morgulov Igor, held a meeting in Moscow on Tuesday to discuss ways to resume the long-stalled six-party talks. Hwang left for Russia on Monday for a three-day visit. Hwang said that five countries -- South Korea, the United States, China, Japan and Russia -- have narrowed gaps over conditions for the resumption of the denuclearization talks that also involve North Korea through a series of recent bilateral and trilateral meetings among the five nations' top nuke negotiators.

Sendai Plant Begins Producing Electricity after Nearly 2 Years of Nuke-Free Nation

Fri, 14 Aug 2015 20:34:36 GMT

Marking the end of 23 months of a nuclear power-free Japan, the Sendai nuclear power plant began generating and transmitting electricity on Aug. 14. At 9 a.m. on Aug. 14, utility workers connected an electrical generator with power cables from the plant’s central control room. The workers applauded when it was confirmed that the reactor began power generation and transmission for the first time in more than four years.

Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant Celebrates 25 Years of Powering Texas

Fri, 14 Aug 2015 20:34:01 GMT

Twenty-five years ago, the first of two units at Luminant's Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant began supplying power to the state's electric grid. That day – Aug. 13, 1990 – was the culmination of a long journey through construction and commissioning, and the beginning of a growing history of milestones and memories. Now, more than 422 million megawatt-hours later, the plant continues its long-standing record of safety, reliability and operational excellence.

UK Research on Intermediate-Level Waste Reduction

Fri, 14 Aug 2015 20:33:35 GMT

Trials have been completed by UK companies Costain and Tetronics International of new technology for the vitrification of intermediate-level radioactive waste (ILW). The partners claim the technology could reduce the volume of such waste from the nuclear industry by up to 90%.

Supplement to the U.S. DoE Environmental Impact Statement for a Geologic Repository for the Disposal of Nuclear Fuel and Waste at Yucca Mountain (NUREG-2184)

Fri, 14 Aug 2015 20:33:04 GMT

This "Supplement to the Department of Energy's Environmental Impact Statement for a Geologic Repository for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada," (supplement) evaluates the potential environmental impacts from a geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This supplement evaluates the potential radiological and nonradiological impacts—over a one million year period—on the aquifer environment, soils, ecology, and public health, as well as the potential for disproportionate impacts on minority or low-income populations. In addition, this supplement assesses the potential for cumulative impacts associated with other past, present, or reasonably foreseeable future actions. The NRC staff finds that all of the potential direct, indirect, and cumulative impacts on the resources evaluated in this supplement would be SMALL.

German Waste Disposal Plan Approved

Thu, 13 Aug 2015 20:05:00 GMT

Following a strategic environmental assessment and public consultation, the German cabinet yesterday adopted a draft national radioactive waste disposal program proposed by the country's environment ministry. The ministry said that program offers a "comprehensive approach to responsible and safe disposal of all radioactive waste." For the final disposal of radioactive waste, the program proposes two locations: the former iron ore mine Konrad in Salzgitter for low- and intermediate-level waste and another as yet undetermined site for high-level waste.

Russia-Mexico Agreement Enters into Force

Tue, 11 Aug 2015 21:06:39 GMT

An intergovernmental agreement between Russia and Mexico on cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy has entered into force, Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom announced today. The two countries signed the agreement in December 2013. "In compliance with a note sent by the Embassy of the United Mexican States to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, the agreement entered into force on 18 July 2015," Rosatom said.

Amid Protests, Kyushu Electric Restarts Sendai Nuclear Plant in Kagoshima

Tue, 11 Aug 2015 21:06:10 GMT

Kyushu Electric Power Co. activated the No. 1 reactor of the Sendai nuclear power plant here on Aug. 11, the first to be restarted in Japan under new safety regulations instituted after the Fukushima nuclear disaster. The reactor is the first of 43 across the nation to be brought back online, ending a period with no nuclear power, which lasted for a year and 11 months.

NRC to Develop SMR-Specific Emergency Regulations

Mon, 10 Aug 2015 23:00:35 GMT

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is to develop new emergency preparedness (EP) regulations for small modular reactors (SMRs) and other new technologies such as non-light-water reactors (LWRs) and medical isotope production facilities. NRC commissioners approved a staff recommendation to initiate the work on 4 August, directing that a plan and schedule for the rulemaking be drawn up within the next nine months. The staff recommendation, submitted in May, anticipated establishment of a generic technical framework that could be used to draw up EP plans for SMRs and other new technologies that would better reflect the likely impacts of an accident at the plant in question.

Japan Heads toward Nuclear Unknown with Post-Fukushima Restarts

Thu, 06 Aug 2015 21:13:24 GMT

Japan is about to do something that’s never been done before: Restart a fleet of mothballed nuclear reactors. The first reactor to meet new safety standards could come online as early as next week. Japan is reviving its nuclear industry four years after all its plants were shut for safety checks following the earthquake and tsunami that wrecked the Fukushima Dai-Ichi station north of Tokyo, causing radiation leaks that forced the evacuation of 160,000 people.

Russia-Egypt Agreement to Be Signed within Months, Says Medvedev

Thu, 06 Aug 2015 21:12:58 GMT

Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian prime minister, expects an inter-governmental agreement on the key commercial terms of a project to build Egypt's first nuclear power plant will be ready to sign this autumn. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi announced plans for the project earlier this year, during Russian President Vladimir Putin's state visit to Egypt. Within the framework of that visit, Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom and the Egyptian Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy agreed to launch detailed discussions on the prospective project. In addition, Rusatom Overseas and the Egyptian Nuclear Power Plants Authority signed a project development agreement for a nuclear power plant with a desalination facility.

NEI Comments on EPA’s Clean Power Plan

Wed, 05 Aug 2015 21:05:49 GMT

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today issued its final Clean Power Plan regulating greenhouse gas emissions from existing fossil fuel-fired power plants under section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act. This rulemaking significantly changes how the electric power sector operates well into the future and affects all sources of electricity, including nuclear energy facilities. Following is a statement by Marvin Fertel, president and chief executive officer of the Nuclear Energy Institute, regarding the new rule.

New Nuclear Power Seen as Winner in Obama’s Clean Power Plan

Tue, 04 Aug 2015 23:32:59 GMT

The Obama administration gave the struggling U.S. nuclear industry a glimmer of hope this week by allowing new reactors to count more toward meeting federal emissions limits. States can take more credit for carbon-free electricity to be generated by nuclear power plants under construction as they work to comply with emission-reduction targets set in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan released Monday. Cuts from existing reactors won’t count, casting the fate of units at risk of premature retirement in doubt.

US-China Nuclear Agreement Passes Congressional Review

Tue, 04 Aug 2015 20:30:44 GMT

An agreement allowing American involvement in China's civilian atomic industry is set to be renewed for 30 years despite some stiff criticism from lawmakers over the Asian nation's record on nuclear proliferation. A 90-day congressional review period expired on Friday without legislative action or a joint resolution to block or alter the agreement. The State Department said Monday that the US and China will decide ``a suitable time in the near future,'' when the agreement will enter into force.

Deal to Build UK Nuclear Plant Should be finalized within Weeks

Tue, 04 Aug 2015 20:28:20 GMT

A £25bn contract to build the UK’s first new nuclear power plant in 25 years is expected to be signed within weeks. Ministers in the Department of Energy and Climate Change have reached an agreement with the French energy company EDF to develop Hinkley Point C, near Bridgwater in Somerset, and are ready to approve the project after parliament’s summer recess.