The Great Transition:Thriving in the Years Ahead

The Death Pledge

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 00:01:00 +0000

American's love the idea of owning their home. So much so that their are now approximately 44.5 million Americans with mortgages. At face value this looks like a great concept but when you dig a little deeper and uncover the history of the concept, it begins to look a lot less appealing.

The word "mortgage" comes from Old French : mort, dead and gage, pledge (of Germanic origin).] Essentially a mortgage is a death pledge. Seems fitting.

According to Wikipedia, the great jurist Sir Edward Coke, who lived from 1552 to 1634, explained why the term mortgage comes from the Old French words mort, "dead," and gage, "pledge." It seemed to him that it had to do with the doubtfulness of whether or not the mortgagor will pay the debt. If the mortgagor does not, then the land pledged to the mortgagee as security for the debt "is taken from him for ever, and so dead to him upon condition.

Given the current arrangement it is rarely expected that those who hold a mortgage are ever expected to really pay it off. Till death do we part. Nowadays mortgages are often passed on to future generations for them to deal with.

Perhaps it is time to rethink this death pledge and come up with an arrangement that does not require us to make such a radical promise to a multi-national corporation who is more than happy to evict us from our homes if economic or health related challenges cause us to miss a few payments.

Managing Contraction

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Sun, 23 Oct 2011 02:47:00 +0000

Loosely adapted from a monday morning blog written by social critic and curmudgeon profit James Howard Kuntsler.

Reality is telling us to downscale and get different fast. Quit doing everything possible to prop up the drive-in false utopia and all its accessories. Get local. Tighten up. It looks certain that most folks have no intention of doing that.

We're mismanaging contraction. Further expansion is just not in the cards right now. We can't handle more people on the planet, and we don't have the means to accommodate them. There will be no 'recovery" to "growth" - especially by means of pumping more oil into the system. There is no techno-miracle alt-fuel hiding in the wings to take over from oil. And there is no research-and-development program that will make it happen.

I admit that contraction is a hard reality - but so is the recognition that we don't get to live forever, something every child begins to grapple with around age seven. The inability of our society to face comprehensive contraction will only insure that its side effects are more debilitating and cut deeper.

It is important for our local communities to think about powering down -- how we could accomplish the various aspects of our lives (food, water, clothing, education, etc) with very little or even no oil. We must also plan for how we will accomplish these with far less money. Things like local reskilling, local resource base, and local production -- coupled with local bartering networks -- become critical parts of the solution. The six R's of lower consumption are important to keep in mind as well. We can happily manage with far less by reducing, recycling, reusing, repairing, re-finishing, and repurposing.

Make every single purchase count toward preparing you and your community for what lies ahead. Gain the new skills. Hook up water barrels, put away vegetable seeds, track down mechanical/power-free tools into your neighborhood. But there is no substitute for real connection with your neighbors. Set up chances to meet one another. As the economy continues to contract, knowing the people who live within 15 minutes of you become your de-facto community. Get to know them, and let them know you. When the Federal Government finally admits it does not have the ability to improve our lives, we will have a local network already in place.

Support Colorado's Solar Rebate Programs

noreply@blogger.com (Neshama Abraham Paiss) — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 14:14:00 +0000

The sneaky move Xcel Energy pulled last week to hurt the solar industry in Colorado is close to criminal. On Feb. 17, 2011, the monopoly – without any advance notice – suspended the solar rebate program.

Xcel abrupt and self-interested move is devastating to Colorado’s 400 solar companies. Suspending the Solar Rewards program could stop all future residential and commercial solar installations and solar leases that were counting on the rebates. The Colorado Solar Energy Industries Association (COSEIA) predicts 2,000 to 3,000 people who work in the solar industry will loose their jobs.

Black Hills Energy in Pueblo pulled a similar move by suspending its solar rebates in October 2010 causing a 90% decrease in solar sales and significant job losses. The current solar rebate program had been working well. Slowly ratcheting down incentives as solar costs decreased, incentives were reduced nearly 50% during the past two years as solar electric costs decreased by 40-50% during the same period.

Citizens, to help reinstate solar rebates at both Xcel Energy and Black Hills Energy please take two minutes to express your opinion by filling out the online form at the Colorado Public Utilities Commission. Refer to docket # A-135 E.

Before Xcel pulled the rug out from under the solar industry, rebate changes were predictable, incremental and transparent. Zero notice and eliminating a successful incentive program shows Xcel’s disregard for renewable energy in our state and the environment.

Public citizen support and the passage of Amendment 37, spurred Colorado to become the #2 state in the U.S. for solar jobs with 5,300 people working in the solar industry in our state, and a national leader in reducing CO2 emissions by 30 percent by 2020.

Xcel’s self-interested move makes me further distrust the utility monopoly as a future provider for Boulder’s energy future. As a concerned citizen, now I feel even more drawn to have Boulder take control of our electricity supply. More at www.renewablesYES.org.

Where Have the Good Jobs Gone?

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 17:25:00 +0000

A recent comment on a CNN Money article asked about the fact that millions of jobs have been lost in this recession and might be gone for good. These jobs are an outward signal that our economy is fundamentally changing. The contraction we are experiencing, is not a typical dip in the road. It is a fundamentally different road than one we have driven down before. In the longer term perspective, this is not unusual. It only feels usual because it has not happened in our lifetimes. But ask any octogenarian and they will tell you about a time when life in American was very different. The Great Depression is called that for a good reason. Daily life was different back then. It was slower, more local, and closer to the bone. People were focused on the basics. Food, water, clothing, shelter, and community.

Over the next decade the kind of job creation we can expect, will be in areas which have not seen growth in decades. As our economy shifts from a global consumerist one, to a much more local community focus, we will see a complex network of local economics re-emerge. I expect to see entire industries flourish based on a relocalization of many of our most basic needs.

Decentralization of the Energy Grid
The current emphasis on renewable energy will grow as more and more as home owners, businesses, local, state, and federal government buildings, military bases, and schools install power generation systems. This is a very good thing for jobs, for grid efficiency, and even for national security. The design, installation, monitoring, and maintenance of these systems will generate millions of jobs

Growing Local Farms
As I write, less than 2% of all Americans grow the food grown in this country. As the cost to transport food from the other side of the planet increases, it will become an economic requirement to grow more of our food in our own soil. Farmers will become our new "rock stars" transforming vacant lots, abandoned suburbs, big box parking lots and city parks and open spaces into productive agricultural farms. America will once again become an agricultural nation where many of us will spent at least some part of our work hours planting, weeding, harvesting, and selling food to one another. We will re-learn the challenges and the delights of growing more of our food close to where we live.

Made in America
America was built on the strength of our manufacturing. But almost all of it has been sent overseas. As the price of oil returns to triple-digit prices we will see a manufacturing renaissance in America. The cost of moving raw materials and finished products around the world will no longer make economic sense. But instead of the containers filled with plastic trinkets we will shift our attention to making the things people need. The consumptive consumerist lifestyle may have seen its last hurrah with the bursting of the housing bubble and the disappearance of trillions of dollars of our savings, home equity, and retirement accounts. Many of us can no longer afford to buy all the "stuff" we had been convinced we needed.

Second Hand Renaissance
I am convinced that much of the manufacturing jobs will not involve new materials. Out of necessity we are seeing a meteoric rise in industries that reuse, recycle, repair, and refinish things. From clothing, to furniture, building materials, and car parts in almost every town the skills needed to re-build and repair broken or work out items will once again become a popular and necessary.

I close with a quote from Jim Howard Kuntsler,

If you want something like gainful employment in the years ahead, don't rely on the corporations, the government, or anyone with a work station equipped cubicle. Start reading up on gardening and harness repair. Learn how to fix a pair of shoes. Volunteer for EMT duty if you're already out of a paycheck, and learn how to comfort people in medical distress. Jobs of the future will be hands-on and direct. I have no idea what medium of exchange you'll get paid with, but a chicken is a good start.

Have a great day and go out and learn a new skill. It will be well worth your time.

What Have We Learned?

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Tue, 30 Nov 2010 01:28:00 +0000

Americans are smart people. We have the ability to learn from history and our mistakes. When the first energy shocks arrived in the 1970's I remember distinctly how Americans rolled with the punches.

As you can see from the graph to the right American drivers cut back on our driving during the 1973-74 and the 1979-81 recessions. We showed the "Oil Barrons" of OPEC we had enought of their grip on our gasoline prices.

Because of this 4-fold increase in the price of gas, from $0.28 a gallon to a stifling $1.00 a gallon, 2 critically important things happened.

First, American's learned to put gasoline into their own cars! Imagine that. Filling stations were magically transformed into 24 hour "gas and go's." The huge price increases caused filling stations to shutter and those who survived scaled back their staff to a bare minimum. The second culture shaking change was the elimination of that sweet bell which sang out as every galllon of gas poured into our ever thirsty automobiles, trucks and motorcycles.

During those early years American's were shocked to learn that the once gasoline exporter of the world, imported almost 25% of our gas from other countries from around the world. But those days are long gone. Now as we rack up just over 3,000,000,000,000 miles every year (that's trillion folks) we have certainly learned our lessions. For the most recent calendar year we have only imported 76% of our gasoline from outside this great country with average oil prices at $84 per barrel and average national pump prices for regular gas selling $2.85 a gallon.

I can't wait to see what we learn next!

Community Input Sought in Boulder's Clean Energy Plan

noreply@blogger.com (Neshama Abraham Paiss) — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 19:16:00 +0000

It’s good to live in a city like Boulder where public officials value transparency of the public process, citizen participation, and reducing carbon emissions.

Boulder has recently embarked on a pioneering process to produce a landmark 2011 Clean Energy Action Plan. The City is seeking input from all stakeholders, including citizens, small business owners, large utility customers, technical experts on renewable energy, and community organizations to shape its Clean Energy Future.

In a public City Council Study Session visioning session on Oct. 12, Mayor Susan Osborne imagined a Boulder 10 years from now that has adopted a clean energy action plan. Osborne likened the City's successful Open Space Program to the City's future clean energy strategy that will "become part of our identify and for which we are known around the world."

“Boulder Matters” Round Tables

To gather stakeholder input about Boulder's Clean Energy Future, the City is hosting a series of public round tables from October 20 through November 10. Called “Boulder Matters,” the meetings are being held throughout Boulder. Organizers say each round table will provide refreshments, offer a raffle, and provide activities for children to make it easier for adults and parents to attend. For example, I just received an email for the Oct. 20 event which will include cider, snacks, and pumpkin painting.

The first two Boulder Matters round tables are:

Weds. Oct. 20, from 5 to 7 p.m. at Fairview High School Cafeteria

Sat. Oct. 24, from 1 to 4 p.m. at Chautauqua Community House

I'm impressed with the website page for Boulder’s Energy Future where agendas, minutes, and background documents are posted from previous City Council Study Sessions. Also on the website are the city's clean energy goals, a newly-created 5-minute video explaining the City process for the Clean Energy Action Plan and near the bottom of the page a place to sign up for an e-group to receive updates, and to post your comments for public record.

Note that City Council Energy Round tables are open to the public and will continue though December 14. Energy Round tables take place every other Tuesday at 5 pm directly before City Council meetings in the lobby of the downtown Municipal Building. The next one is Tuesday, Oct. 26 from 5-6 pm.

Vote YES on 2B

The key that opens the door to a Boulder whose future electricity is sourced by renewable energy rather than fossil fuels is 2B. (Thanks to solar educator Ken Regelson for the key analogy.) All members of City Council, Boulder County Commissioners Will Toor and Ben Pearlman, plus numerous environmentally-conscious Boulder organizations and businesses support 2B. It is now it is up to us citizens to vote YES on 2B to create a "five year utility occupation tax to replace lost franchise fee revenue" (Source Official Ballot for 2010 Boulder County General Election.)

Passing 2B will enable the City to directly collect the $4.1 million per year Xcel currently obtains through its 3 percent franchise fee on your utility bill. The replacement tax will give Boulder direct control over the money for essential City services – with no change to Xcel’s service to Boulder residents and businesses. Passing 2B will empower Boulder to negotiate a contract that will best meet our City's clean energy goals after the current franchise agreement with Xcel expires December 31, 2010. Background on 2B info can be found at www.RenewablesYes.org and at the Boulder Energy Future website.

Let's Do It!

Boulder - we have an historic opportunity to choose how much of our energy supply comes from renewables. Vote YES on 2B and participate in "Boulder Matters" because these are important matters and your voice matters!

So How Are You Today?

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Fri, 08 Oct 2010 18:20:00 +0000

During challenging times most people are working hard to keep up the facade that things are just fine. Here is a conversation I might have overheard at a local coffee shop.

Alec: Heah Bob how are you doing?

Bob: I am well. Thanks for asking.

Alec: Good to hear. You are looking trimmer these days.

Bob: Yea well I have been eating less.

Alec: Good idea. And I see you are sporting a new hair style.

Bob: Yes my daughter has started cutting hair.

Alec: Really. Isn’t she only 11?

Bob: Sure but we encourage our kids to keep expanding their skill set. Why just the other night we had our 12-year-old make dinner.

Alec: Really and how did that turn out.

Bob: Well she really didn’t understand that large flames would trigger the fire sprinkler system.

Alec: Oh my, that sounds like it didn’t turn out so well.

Bob: The real issue is if our homeowners insurance will pay to have the house rebuilt.

Alec: That is why we have insurance.

Bob: Yea but only if you are current on your payments.

Alec: So it sounds like you skipped the homemade meal.

Bob: Oh it just gave us a good reason to go out to eat.

Alec: Good plan. So where did you go?

Bob: Well the first place we usually go had unexpectedtly gone out of business. So we drove across town to our favorite all-you-can eat place.

Alec: Bet that filled you all up.

Bob: Well our credit card was declined when we got to the cashier. But we were able to snack on the stuff on our trays before we found out.

Alec: So it sounds like things are a little challenging right now.

Bob: Yeah I guess so. Do you happen to have $100 I could borrow?

A Recent Chat With Benny Bernanke

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Wed, 06 Oct 2010 18:25:00 +0000

On a recent elevator ride I had the opportunity to chat with Benny Bernanke about the current financial situation we find ourselves in.

Zev: So Benny how are you feeling these days?

Benny: Well Zev, to be honest I am a bit overwhelmed.

Zev: Really. What are you most concerned about?

Benny: When I was in grad school at M.I.T and went on to become a tenured professor at Princeton University in the Department of Economics, all we talked about were the best ways to achieve economic growth.

Zev: Well isn't that what we want?

Benny: Of course. But the problem is that no matter what I do, significant growth remains elusive.

Zev: What if we stopped focusing on growth and looked at scenarios that promoted sustainability?

Benny: Huh?

Zev: What if we were to organize our economy around sustainability and quality of life and not around growth at any cost?

Benny: I don't understand?

Zev: I think I see the problem.

The elevator stops and the door slides open.

Benny: This is my floor. Nice chatting with you and have a great day!

What is Really Important?

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Tue, 21 Sep 2010 18:44:00 +0000

Earlier this month on the even of Rosh Hashana the Jewish New Year, my family and the other 11 households who make up our small cohousing community, were faced with a difficult decision. At that time, a raging forest fire was gobbling up thousands of acres of Colorado forest just a few miles west of our community.

Earlier that morning the neighborhood near our location were told to prepare for a possible evacuation if the winds picked up and the fire jumped the fire line. To our relief that turned out to be unnecessary.

Just in case, members of our community met briefly to talk about our situation and to set up an overnight web and visual watch for an evacuation order for our part of town.

During that informal gathering, the topic of what should we pack became a central topic of conversation. The diversity of strongly felt opinions showcased how different people value their possessions. It was a common theme that packing required medicines, old family photos, and paper documents — which would be extremely difficult to track down or recreate — were mentioned by everyone. But beyond those items the conversations became very interesting and personal.

For one community member who is very athletic, he said he would be taking several of his bikes if an evacuation was required. Another resident said her clothing would be almost impossible to replace and would plan to fill her car with as many clothes as possible. A third resident commented that his life is mostly digital and it was all securely backed up at a remote location. "Look at my house," he commented. "I am not one to collect things and would probably not take much of anything with me if I had to leave."

Even in my own family there was a wide range of priorities as we were forced to decide what should be taken if it was all you had left when the fire was over. It was these conversations for me that placed all the material aspects of our world into stark perspective. It offered me the opportunity to be grateful for the people in my life and skills I have acquired that can be taken with me where ever I go.

I would never wish a fire on anyone but the chance to decide "What is Really Important?" was a very valuable exercise I would suggest we all do every once in a while.

The Emperor's New Clothes

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 19:31:00 +0000

Like the famous short tale by Hans Christian Andersen, our current leaders stand before us saying one thing when a totally different reality is evident to even the youngest members of our society.

According to Wikapedia:

In his tale, an Emperor who cares for nothing but his wardrobe, hires two weavers who promise him the finest suit of clothes from a fabric invisible to anyone who is unfit for his position. The Emperor cannot see the cloth himself, but pretends that he can for fear of appearing unfit for his position or stupid; his ministers do the same. When the swindlers report that the suit is finished, they dress him in mime and the Emperor then marches in procession before his subjects. A child in the crowd calls out that the Emperor is wearing nothing at all and the cry is taken up by others. The Emperor cringes, suspecting the assertion is true, but holds himself up proudly and continues the procession.

Here in the waning days of Summer 2010, I find myself referring often to the current similarities to this strange tale written in 1837. I wish that President Obama could stand before the American public, and state that the growth paradigm we have been operating under for the past 150 years, is now history, and that we must for the sake of our children, and their children, create a sustainable economy.

If the President of the United States or the Secretary of the Treasury, or the Chairman of the Fed were to make this proclamation, he would either be assassinated before the end of his speech, or simply carted away and heavily medicated under the guise of "national security." If this reality was openly acknowledged, our current economy and army of investors working away at developing and selling fantasy financial products on Wall Street, would crash and burn in a matter of hours.

I am here to proudly say, and ask all of you reading these words, to yell at the top of your lungs, "The Emperor Has No Clothes!" We are rapidly approaching the edge of an abyss that could make the Great Depression, look more like a slight economic correction if we do not change our direction.

Along with the creation of renewable energy technologies, re-localized food production, made in America campaigns, and rebuilding America's passenger railroads, we need to acknowledge that "sustainable growth" is an absolute impossibility and it is time to seriously engage in how we can transition this great nation to a sustainable economy we can believe in.

The Road Ahead

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 16:19:00 +0000

On a recent vacation to Costa Rica earlier this summer, I spent more hours than I had wanted experiencing the driving conditions first hand. For many of the main roads, driving is pretty similar to my Colorado experience. But when you get into the secondary roads, the ones that take you to many of the wonders of the country, the driving becomes a very different experience. The combination of changing road widths, potholes, washboard and the ever present passing cars and trucks made driving a real challenge. I remember turning to my wife and saying, welcome to our future. We are going to see a lot more of this in the U.S. Now a month later I see this article in the WSJ.

"The Road to Ruin"
January 17, 2010

Outside this speck of a town, pop. 78, a 10-mile stretch of road had deteriorated to the point that residents reported seeing ducks floating in potholes, Mr. Zimmerman said. As the road wore out, the cost of repaving became too great. Last year, the county spent $400,000 on an RM300 Caterpillar rotary mixer to grind the road up, making it look more like the old homesteader trail it once was.

Paved roads, historical emblems of American achievement, are being torn up across rural America and replaced with gravel or other rough surfaces as counties struggle with tight budgets and dwindling state and federal revenue. State money for local roads was cut in many places amid budget shortfalls.

But this change is not all bad. It will increase the trend toward localization, but it slows us down, and will ultimately create a number of very local jobs to keep the roads in usable condition.

Understanding the Oil News of the Day

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Tue, 06 Apr 2010 01:19:00 +0000

One of the more challenging aspects of the entire Peak Oil conversation is the fear of "running out of oil." I can stand here today and tell you with 100% confidence, we will never run out of oil! Why is that? Because there is still a lot it in the ground, and as we continue looking we are quickly seeing that the vast majority of the oil that is left is getting harder and more expensive to get out of the ground and refine into gasoline.

For example. A few years ago in 2006, British Petrolium (BP) announced that it hat hit it big with the Kaskida field in the Keathley Canyon region of the Gulf of Mexico. A very sophisticated and expensive submersible called Deepwater Horizon, drilled the well to 32,500 ft in 5,860 ft of water and encountered an 800 foot deep pocket of sand which was saturated with oil. In 2009 they drilled a second exploritory well and learned that the oil pocket extend into another part of the same canyon. Three years and two wells.

That sounds promising on the surface, but let's take a minute to drill down a bit deeper (pun most defiantly intended). This is not like drilling a 500 foot well in your backyard and hitting a gusher. British Petroleum went out 250 miles southwest of New Orleans, and with a very specialized submarine went down over a mile to the bottom of the Gulf and then proceeded to drill a 5 mile deep well to discover sand soaked oil.
That is an incredible feat. And a very expensive one as well. The bigger challenge is what will be necessary in both time and money to create an ongoing pumping and refining complex to get this oily sand out of the ground, pump or ship it hundreds of miles to the nearest refinery and do what needs to be done to make this liquid ready to be used in your car or truck. That process can easily take 10 years to accomplish. If BP is very fortunate and the oil field turns out to be a "Super Giant Field" with at least 5 billion recoverable barrels of oil, this discovery will feed the world at our current rate of usage for 90 days. If you want even more details about the challenges of this kind of project, please read this.

So this is what BP calls hitting it big!

The challenge we are faced with is not running out of oil but figuring out how we will ever afford oil that takes this level of effort to get out of the ground and into our gas tanks.

I suggest we seriously focus on how to re-organize ourselves to avoid needing that oil in the first place.

I think creating Peak Communities may be a big part of the answer.

Introducing Peak Community

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 04:36:00 +0000

Over the past 35 years I have had the privilege of working on a wide variety of efforts all aimed at creating a more sustainable society. These have included recycling, aquaculture for waste water treatment, neighborhood composting systems, bike sharing, mass transit, urban agriculture, green construction and mixed use developments.

Since the early 1990's, the concept of cohousing, environmentally-sensitive clustered neighborhoods, has become established here in the United States. Started in Denmark, it has evolved to adapt to the realities of American Culture as well as our changing economic landscape. Over that time, the residents of these neighborhoods have learned a tremendous amount about how to work together and to design, build and organize their homes to improve their energy efficiency while developing of strong relationships between neighbors.

But now even more is required if we are to transform our communities to adjust to the demographic and economic tidal waves heading our way. The issues of sustainability, green construction, food production, renewable energy and walkable communities need to be woven together with the inter-personal lessons we have learned creating and living in cohousing communities over the past 20 years. The result of this merging of innovative ideas is a concept I am calling “Peak Community.”

What kind of a future can we create, which is both spiritually uplifting, and increasingly sustainable for our environment?

Over the next few months I will be posting blog entries which explain the various components of this emerging concept of Peak Community. I hope you enjoy them.

Renewable Energy and the Emerging Green Economy

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 21:16:00 +0000

As 2009 ended, the price of oil rose to $79.62 a barrel (December 31, 2009) 71 percent higher than a year ago. From reliable sources such as oil economist Matt Simmons and postings on The Oil Drum, many see that the United States will most probably shift to natural gas as a transition fuel supply replacing hard to reach and expensive sources of oil. By now it must be obvious that renewable energy sources, e.g. solar, wind, geothermal and the promising area of algae, are the logical long term sustainable solutions for our national economy.

Abraham Paiss & Associates was fortunate in 2009 to become the public relations, marketing, and web design firm for one of Colorado's leading solar engineering and construction companies: SolSource Inc. Headquartered in Denver, SolSource is a highly experienced designer and installer of solar electric and solar thermal systems for homes, businesses, municipalities, schools, and the military. During 2009 we assisted SolSource in its announcement of a 1.2 MW solar photovoltaic system for Buckley Air Force Base in Aurora, Colorado. When installed in 2010 this installation will be the largest solar array on a U.S. Air Force base in Colorado. You can read about it in an AP story written in the Denver Post.

Helping schools lower their utility bills and incorporate renewable energy into the school curriculum is another focus of SolSource. In December, Jeff Scott, company founder and president, visited Academia Sandoval Elementary School in Denver to teach children how much energy is produced from the 9.8 kW solar system on their school roof in the first use of an online data monitoring system in the Denver Public School system. We feel honored to work with an excellent solar energy company and are looking forward to supporting SolSource in its pioneering work ahead in 2010.

From the Ground Up: Creating a Year-Round Sustainable Food System

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 22:08:00 +0000

When we think about our basic needs, creating a secure year-round food supply rises to the top. While our Federal Government supplied billions of dollars to support the crumbling financial system and auto industry, we see a much more critical need to direct funds to help Americans grow food close to where they live. We see American food security as a critical need that requires our best thinkers and attention. to bring back farming close to where we live and to make food production economically viable.

As you may know, most of your food currently travels thousands of miles to reach your local market. With increasing oil prices coupled with unpredictable and more intense weather patterns draught and crop failure may become more common. It may not be that far in the future when one goes to the grocery store to see more expensive food items and empty spaces on the shelves.

Over the next two weeks we will be preparing a grant to submit to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This new USDA Planning Grant is designed to fund special events to bring together diverse groups of experts to help solve a regional or national problem. We are focusing on assembling a group of individuals with expertise in solar greenhouse design and manufacturing, renewable energy production, compost manufacturing, seed production, urban agriculture, agricultural economy, and land planning and zoning. Our goal is to convene a focused gathering in 2010 to develop a plan for national implementation to create an economically viable and biologically secure year-round urban food growing and distribution system.

As many of you know, we are experienced meeting planners, having put together over a dozen regional and national meetings for the cohousing industry since 1992. We have already contacted a number of national experts in the areas mentioned above who have agreed to participate if we are awarded the grant to focus on solutions for year round urban farming.

Since this USDA planning grant is based on matching funds, the USDA will match dollar for dollar actual funds raised or presenters contributing their time as an in-kind donation. Matching funds need to be in place at the time of the grant submittal by January 14, 2010. We welcome your input on individuals, companies and organizations you think would wish to participate in this meeting either as a presenter or as a donor. If you have ideas, please contact us as soon as possible. We will continue to post updated material about the USDA Planning Grant on our website.

5 Tips for Prepairing for Peak Oil

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:29:00 +0000

Preparing for peak oil is just common sense.

Sami Grover

Whether peak oil means, as many people argue, the end of civilization as we know it, or simply a painful and challenging reordering of the status quo, remains a matter of debate. But either way, it makes sense to prepare yourself. Even if peak oil remains decades away, many of the things you should do to prepare for peak oil and other calamities are also simply prudent common sense, not to mention a great way of cutting your carbon emissions. So here's a list of 5 ideas to get you started preparing for peak oil—apocalypse or not.

5 Steps to Start Preparing for Peak Oil

1. Start a Garden: From learning about permaculture to planting fruit and nut trees to starting a no-dig garden, learning to grow your own food, and making sure the infrastructure is in place to do so, can be a great way to insularte yourself from future shocks—be they environmental or economic. If you are seriously worried about coming instability, it makes sense to concentrate on fruit trees and perennials first—,once you've dug an asparagus bed or planted a pear tree, you'll be enjoying harvests for years to come.
2. Green Your Home: From insulating your roof to installing low energy light bulbs, everything you do to green your home will also put you in better stead if and when energy prices rise dramatically. And if you're a believer in more profound shocks from peak oil, why not look at generating some of your own power by installing solar panels?
3. Live Within Your Means: Learning to limit your spending is not always thought of as a green activity, but it is definitely wise if you want to become more resilient to economic or social disturbance. And buying less stuff means producing less pollution too, so it's a win-win for the planet and your finances, whether peak oil is around the corner or not.You may also want to look at cutting debt, or paying off that mortgage—recent events show just how fragile our economic system can be. You could even try living mortgage-free!
4. De-oil Your Transport: Along with food and housing, transportation is one of the most energy intensive activities in the average person's life, and unlike energy used in our homes, transportation energy is almost completely reliant on oil. So look at ways you can cut back on oil use— and try to think beyond the obvious. From biking to work to carpooling to taking mass transit, cutting your transportation footprint often saves you money too. And if you want to get really serious, you can work from home. Even driving more carefully will save you money on gas.
5. Campaign for Action: Cutting your personal oil consumption is commendable, but peak oil is a societal problem. So do what you can to educate your friends, to mobilize your community, and to call for action on a political level. Whether you are calling for stricter fuel economy standards or starting a community garden, collective action makes us all more resilient to coming challenges. Take a look at our guide on How to Green Your Community for more ideas.

Fueling the Modern Economy

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 04:28:00 +0000

Colin Cambell, a 40+ year petroleum geologist and the founder of the international Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), sums up the unique set of circumstances that leave us in a difficult situation when it come to the future of our energy systems. He says,

When people think of fossils, they think of dinosaurs, which were huge over-specialized animals that failed to adapt to changed natural circumstances, proving less efficient than the simple limpet that has lived virtually unchanged since the Cambrian, 500 million years ago, happily clinging to its rocks. Fossil fuels have almost dinosaur attributes, having been formed but rarely in the geological past, which means they are subject to depletion. The production in any country, endowed with the resource, starts and ends, passing a peak in between when about half the resources has been taken. Oil is perhaps an extreme example, given that it has played such a critical part in fueling the modern economy.

This is up there with some of the most earthshaking perdigm shifts that have happened throughout human history. Imaging the impact of the "Theory" that the earth was round and it was us that circled the Sun and not the other way around. At this point in history we face the prospect that all of easy to get to and relatively inexpensive oil has been extracted. This fact, if proven to ultimately have been true, will have an effect on almost everything we have become dependent on to maintain our current societal arrangment. These are the challenges which come along once in a while, where civilizations either rise to the occasion or whither on the time line of human history.

I am betting on a rise.

The Story of Oil

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:50:00 +0000

Native Americans for centuries have used oil as a medicine and for waterproofing of canoes as well other objects.

The first discovery of oil by Europeans from North America probably came in 1627 by a Franciscan missionary traveling near Cuba, New York. In 1821, William Hart drilled for and discovered gas at Fredonia, New York, near the shores of Lake Erie, making him the first to do so. A primitive pipeline was constructed from hollowed-out logs, and soon the entire main street was illuminated by natural gas.

On January 10, 1901, on a small hill in southeastern Texas, after drilling down to a depth of 1,020 feet, mud started bubbling back up the hole. Seconds later, the drill pipe shot out of the ground with great force. Then a noise like a cannon shot came from the hole, and mud came shooting out of the ground like a rocket. Within a few seconds, natural gas, then oil followed.

The first oil "gusher" - greenish-black in color, rose double the size of the drilling derrick, rising to a height of more than 150 feet. This was more oil than had ever been seen anywhere in the entire world. flowing at an initial rate of nearly 100,000 barrels per day. This amount, while small today, was at the time more oil than all of the other producing wells in the United States COMBINED!

Since that time, geologists have mapped over 95% of the earth's surface and have estimated that the "total" amount of oil that was in the ground is approximately 2,000,000,000,000 - two trillion barrels. That sound like a lot of oil, and it is. It is also unbelievable to consider, that in the last 100 years humanity has consumed about half of this oil - about 1 trillion barrels of oil.

So much of the debate today is weather we are going to run out of oil or if we have reached a peak in production and what effects that may have on our lifestyles. Let me be perfectly clear, humanity will NEVER run out of oil. There is lots more of it. The challenge facing us is that we have located and pumped out almost all of the easy to find oil.

We are at the end of the age of inexpensive oil.

The oil which remains is both very hard to reach and is of a much lower quality than what we have been pumping for the past 100 years. If people are willing to pay $7.00 a gallon for their gas it will be available but a lot of folks will not be able to afford to drive at that price. Oil priced at $200 or more per barrel will increase the cost of everything that uses oil in its production or transportation... and that covers almost everything these days.

We live in interesting times and from my perspective, it is only going to get much more interesting.

Decentralize Food as Well as Power

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:02:00 +0000

Now that the "official" unemployment figures are at least 10.2 percent, it seems like a great time to focus on what kind of recovery we can collectivly create. As I have posted a number of times on this blog, the chances of returning to a debt and consumpution fueled ecomony are pretty small.

San Francisco Fed President Dr. Yellen asked today how strong the upturn will be. With high unemployment and idle productive capacity, we will need a very strong rebound to put unemployed people back to work and get underutilized factories, offices, and stores humming again. Traditional demand will most probably grow at too slow a pace to support vigorous expansion in the traditional markets. So what are we to do instead?

I suggest we take a step back and see what areas we desperately need to grow and begin pouring stimulus funds in those directions instead of our habit of propping up industries which may be past their usefulness and do not support the creation of a lower-carbon and more sustainable society. The efforts by the Federal and many State governments to encourage a green economy could be a great start. Supporting renewable energy technologies and an infrastructure to support it is already receiving much attention and is gain traction. Another segment worth immediate attention is food production.

The move to decentralize our power generation system should be followed by the creation of thousands of smaller more localized farms. These can create tens of thousands of productive jobs, will help to increase local food security and improve the freshness of our food by bringing it closer to where it is consumed. A Colorado company is pioneering a concept they call Agriburbia which combines residential and commercial development with local food production. Growing vegetables and raising small farm animals close to home may turn out to be one of the most important steps we can make to begin to rehire people who have lost their jobs while building local resilience.

An Example of A Virtual Eco-Village

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:42:00 +0000

This 1-minute video was made by Rebecca Mangum to highlight the features of Etopia Island a 32-acre virtual ecovillage in Second Life. You may visit the community at any time by going to this link and downloading the Second Life viewer.

A Christmas Like Grandma's...

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 04:21:00 +0000

Americans have the opportunity this Holiday Season to decide if the glass is half empty or half full. For the past several decades we have become use to this time of year as a time when we open up our pocketbooks and remove our credit cards, race around towns with throngs of other strangers, all scooping up item after item. The motivation stemming from that deeply ingrained guilt of times when you had nothing to give to those who might decide to give you something.

What would it be like this Gift Giving Season, if we were to give each other some time together, sharing stories, playing games, reviewing the challenges and success of the year. Deeper gifts for each other at this slowing time of year. Even many of the trees have released their protective leaves.

The current economic slowdown, which I deeply believe will be more the norm moving ahead, actually gives us time to be with each other, instead of buying stuff and taking all the time and energy to create or move around that stuff in the first place. This kind of behavioral shift, while continuing to cripple the economic engine of our consumer society, has the potential to remind us another slower and possibly more fulfilling way to live. It was only 60-70 years ago, when our grandparents were young children, where the quality of life was quite high but much less consumptive then we have become accustomed to .

I am of the "glass-is-half-full" camp, so I see the possibilities of a happier and healthier future as we relearn how to enjoy ourselves without the need for endless mountains of stuff and free-flowing credit.

What Exactly is Recovering?

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 03:34:00 +0000

The growing symphony of economic experts crying out that the recession is over, seems to be missing something very important. When seen through purely economic blinders a company with an improved balance sheet starts to look pretty good in this times. But I wonder what kind of improvement we are really seeing when that robust balance sheet comes as a result of slashed jobs, reduced inventories, and the shedding of unprofitable parts of their business?

Can we really consider a company to be doing well when it has decimated its workforce, scaled back its holdings, closed stores and plants, and slashed the wages and benefits of its remaining employees? There is something deeply wrong when we consider these measures to be the signs of improved health and recovery.

I see the excitement surrounding improved earnings and the current run-up in the stock market as a futile attempt to squeeze out the remaining profits before the economy resumes its downward slide.

My 2¢...

Some Thoughts from the International Energy Agency

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:24:00 +0000

Excerpted from a recently published report. This is our wake up call folks!

In 2008 the IEA for the first time projected a 50% drop in production from existing conventional oil fields by 2020.* This alarming figure was partly the result of the IEA’s first field-by-field analysis of a large number of oil fields. This fall in production coupled with projected increased demandfor oil is likely to result in a large gap between supply and
demand. Policy makers should note the underlying problem is that there will be a gap, the size of which will constantly vary depending on economic conditions. It is hard to overstate the significance of these warning signals, first raised in 2007, given the Agency’s previous misplaced confidence and assurances that oil supply could meet the world’s expanding demand.

Global Witness has focused its analysis on the work of the IEA, because, as it boasts, “Governments and industry from all across the globe have come to rely on… [its WEO
series and wider IEA commentary] to provide a consistent basis on which they can formulate policies and design business plans.” Established during the 1973-74 oil crisis to “co-ordinate measures in times of oil supply emergencies…,” it has become the leading global authority on energy issues, covering all major energy producing and consuming countries.

What is the scale of the problem? In November 2008, the IEA projected a 7m bpd gap by 2015, which equates to 7.7% of projected world demand by that year.‡ This gap
was estimated from the combined impacts of declining production from existing fields, long-term projections for increased global demand, and insufficient new production coming on stream to cope with this situation. The global recession has temporarily altered projections for global demand, but has not changed the underlying fundamental problems with increasing production. As the IEA put it, “… the gap now evident between what is currently being built and what will be needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010. Around 7 mb/d [m bpd] of additional capacity (over and above that from all current projects) [Global Witness emphasis] needs to be brought on stream by 2015.” To appreciate the implication of a gap of this size from a national or regional perspective, see A 50% projected drop in conventional oil production in just 11 years is truly astonishing. It represents a drop from
2008’s output of 74m bpd to just 37m bpd by 2020. The IEA project this steep rate of decline to begin almost immediately. To put this in context, the Agency also projects total world oil demand to reach 104m bpd by 2030.109 What is even more remarkable is that such a vast and imminent loss of conventional oil production has not caused wider comment. It should be making governments seriously question why the Agency, established in reaction to the 1973 oil crisis, appears until very recently to have missed the start of the next one.

Glimpses of an Emerging Economy

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 15:48:00 +0000

The recent economic changed has made it extremely obvious that an economy based 70% on consumption will need a serious rethinking. As our economy continues to contract, as I think it will for the next year or so, I expect to see a new framework for employment based on a lower level of consumption. I firmly believe that the "new normal" will look substantially different than the "previous normal."

The City of Berkeley Zero Waste Commission has provided a possible job creation framework by stating the following:

Reduce – Just use less. We are so use to thinking more is better that we have forgotten that using less is sometimes better.

Reuse - Stop throwing things away. So many items can be used again and again if not by you then by someone else.

Repair – Reclaim the lost art of fixing things. Many items just require a bit of effort to make them usable once again.

Rebuild – Complex items are well worth the effort and can end up better, stronger or more powerful that the earlier generation.

Refurbish – Sometimes it only takes a little sprucing up to be ready for use.

Refinish – Adding a new cover, color, or stain can make all the difference.

Resell – If it has value others may very well buy it from you. Ebay and others are growing rapidly!

Recycle - Send it back to be used again. Support your local recycling center.

Compost – Send it back to the earth – literally!

If this is not possible then the item should be restricted, redesigned or removed from production.

By putting our creativity and economic power behind these eight activities, we can take substantial action towards developing work that is not only meaningful but can truly add to a sustainable economy.

Up, Up and Away

noreply@blogger.com (Zev Paiss) — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 14:40:00 +0000

4 Forces Driving Oil Prices Higher

by Sean Brodrick

Oil prices pushed near the top of their recent range this week, and the usual suspects trotted out on the TV to tell us why this rally couldn't last. And on the face of it, their argument seems to make sense. It boils down to ...

1. Crude has been trapped in the same range since June.
2. U.S. oil demand is lackluster at best.
3. There is plenty of oil in storage.

That sounds pretty solid to me. So why, then, are oil prices trending higher? Look at this chart ...

Source: Stockcharts.com

Indeed, I'll give you four solid reasons why crude oil is going higher — and I could give you a lot more. I think forces are in play that could send crude oil prices surging up to $92 or even $105. And that's a move worth playing!

I'll give you some trading ideas, as well. First, here is a triple-shot of bullish forces in oil.

Force #1: Global Demand Is Rising

To be sure, America is using less oil. The Energy Information Administration expects America's oil demand to fall by 330,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. And oil refiners including Valero and Sunoco have shut plants to cope with a glut of fuel.

However, all gluts end. The EIA recently revised upward its estimate for U.S. oil consumption in 2010, expecting demand to increase by 320,000 bpd over 2009.

And demand is recovering faster elsewhere in the world. In fact, the International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to rise to 86.1 million bpd in 2010 from 84.6 million bpd in 2009.

And in its October Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC jacked up its estimate of global oil demand for next year. "The risks to the forecast are seen on the upside," OPEC said in a statement. "Should the U.S. continue to show healthier oil demand levels, then world oil demand could increase by another 200,000 barrels per day before year's end."

OPEC expects the emerging markets will run rings around developed countries when it comes to oil demand growth. And international experts agree that there's one country in particular that will likely use a LOT more oil ...

Force #2: China Is Shifting Into Higher Gear

China's oil consumption doubled in the last decade, rising to 8 million barrels a day last year from 4.2 million barrels in 1998, according to BP Plc's Statistical Review. And that trend continues.

Chinese oil demand was revised upward to 8.17 million bpd for 2009 from a previous estimate of 8.08 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency. Crude oil imports in January-August period went up 7.4% from earlier. And demand is accelerating. China's oil imports rose 18% in August.

Looking at next year, China's crude consumption is expected to increase 1.4 million barrels per day to 86.1 million, according to the IEA.

Even these raised estimates may not be high enough. China's car sales are booming — up 78% in September from a year earlier. Overall vehicle sales totaled 1.33 million units, while passenger car sales climbed 84% to 1.02 million units, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported.

So far this year, China has seen 9.66 million cars sold — far ahead of the U.S., which has seen auto sales of 7.85 million. What's more, most cars sold in China are first-time owners. In the U.S., most car sales are replacement vehicles.

So, those revved-up China auto sales mean much higher gasoline consumption and oil consumption.

Force #3: The Cheap Oil Is Going ... Going ...

Peak production is already receding in the rear view mirror for dozens of nations. World reserves are being depleted by about 4% a year, according to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. That leaves the world margin of error far too small, and vulnerable to disruptions such as rebel attacks on pipelines or saber-rattling disputes in the Middle East.

As reserves of cheap oil run lower, competition for remaining assets becomes more frenzied. The global financial crisis barely slowed China down in its quest to outbid western oil companies for global assets. For example, ExxonMobil recently made a $4 billion offer for Ghana's Jubilee oil field. But then China National Oil Company opened its own talks with Ghana to make a rival bid for a stake in Jubilee.

The Jubilee field is estimated to hold 1.8 billion barrels of oil. According to the Energy Information Administration, the world's 15 largest oil producers delivered about 64 billion barrels per day in 2008.

Exxon's $4 billion bid would buy it a 23.5% stake in the Jubilee. According to some experts, oil would have to sell at $100 a barrel to make this stake profitable for Exxon.

Deflationists — people who argue that the big trend in prices going forward will be down, not up — would argue paying that kind of price for oil is just pig-bitin' crazy! So how crazy is it that China is willing to trump that bid? How high of an oil price is China planning on?

And Ghana is just the beginning. Chinese oil companies have announced plans to spend at least $16 billion to gain access to African energy assets.

Meanwhile, the big American oil companies, outbid by foreign competitors with deep pockets, are facing a future of steadily dwindling production. Let's keep the focus on ExxonMobil. It has been producing a little over 2.4 million barrels of oil a day for the last year and a half, its lowest rate of production over the last decade.

Source: Econbrowser.com

In 2001, ExxonMobil's annual report predicted 3% annual production growth — the red line on the chart. Instead, it fell short of its production growth target. In 2006, it predicted it could hit 3% annual growth by 2011. That's the blue line on the chart. The dark line below the others is Exxon's actual production growth. Good luck hitting those targets, boys.

I'm not saying Exxon is a bad company. Many oil companies are running up against the limits of growth. This is something that is affecting the entire Western oil industry, and will probably eventually spark a resource war in the Arctic, as the U.S., Canada, Russia and other countries fight over oil and gas resources literally at the end of the Earth.

But that's a longer-term problem. Let's look at something that could send oil higher in a real hurry ...

Force #4: The Falling U.S. Dollar

This is the part that is difficult for me to write. Because when I write about the dollar, my spine tenses up, my fingers curl into fists, and I get a nearly uncontrollable urge to scream. And if that scream was articulate at all, it would go something like: "We're ... so ... screwed!"

Some facts ...

The budget deficit hit $1.4 trillion in 2009. It looks to go higher in 2010, and we could see budget deficits of well over a trillion dollars for years to come.
The U.S. Federal Debt is a ticking time bomb. It is now at $11.9 trillion, or $38,000 per person. That means if you have a family of four, your portion is $152,000 of pure debt.
The debt continues to increase. In fact, the U.S. government is moving closer to its $1.21 trillion debt ceiling. Congress will likely vote to raise the debt, taking us into uncharted territory. Congress has raised the U.S. debt ceiling by varying amounts 76 times since 1960. There is only one way to get rid of unsustainable levels of U.S. debt — inflation. And the prevailing U.S. policy is clear — we are going to inflate our way out of this (that is, devalue the dollar).
And here's exhibit A — a chart of the dollar ...

Source: Stockcharts.com

While as American citizens and consumers we may hate this, it would at least be endurable if it is manageable. The problem is it may not be manageable.

Why? Well, when we create all this debt, we have to sell it to someone. The answer for years has been to sell it to foreigners, especially foreign central banks. But now they're wising up. Bloomberg recently reported that central banks are switching out of dollars and into euros and yen. The U.S. dollar makes up only 37% of new central bank foreign reserves, down from an average 63% since 1999.

If this trend away from the dollar increases, the slippery slide of the dollar could become a plunge — and give the dollar a haircut of between one-third and one-half very quickly.

Now if you were a big-pocketed investor, and you wanted to get some insurance against such a potential plunge, where would you put your money? You might use your rapidly depreciating greenbacks to buy hard assets — gold, silver, copper, tin — CRUDE OIL!

And beyond the usual suspects ... the banks, the big individual investors, the small-time speculators ... there is approximately $3 trillion in sovereign wealth funds — government controlled investment funds — and a lot of those governments are becoming more wary of dollars. Do you think they might be buying commodities, including oil? Heck, yeah!

So go back and look at that chart of oil I had at the top of the page. Considering all I've told you, what would you say the odds are of oil going to $92 a barrel or even $105?

I'd say the odds are better than average.

Yours for trading profits,

Sean