When a horse like Frankel comes along, words like “fluke” or “freak” tended to get bandied about. We, however, prefer to think of Frankel representing the “perfect storm” perhaps one that yields the rogue wave that sweeps aside all in it’s path. There are many elements to the phenotype and genotype of athletic performance, be it equine or human, these including structure and biomechanics; quality and quantity of musculature; cardio-vascular system; the processes regarding energy and nervous systems; and the mental compenent. We would hazard a guess that in Frankel we have the extraordinarily rare individual who is not only excellent in each of these compenent, but also possess them in a way where they are all aptitudinally harmonious with each other, a case where the sum truly is greater than the parts.

It almost goes without saying that one cannot plan to breed a Frankel – as demstronstrated by his three-parts-brother, Bullet Train, and brother Noble Mission, both accomplished runners, but a considerable distance apart from the champion in both talent and aptitude – but we can note that he does combine all the genetic elements for success. He’s not only by the leading sire of his time, but his paternal and maternal grandsires, Sadler’s Wells and Danehill, were the dominant sires of their era, and he also comes from a strong family. These elements have also consistently proven their affinity for each other, Galileo having sired 17 stakes winners from 101starters out of Danehill mares, six of them group one winners, while Sadler’s Wells sired multiple group/grade one winner Powerscourt out of the group winning granddam of Frankel. And Galileo has also shown a strong affinity for the mitochondrial haplotype of the Bruce Lowe #1 family, from which Frankel stems.

Frankel’s brilliance doesn’t really give much clue as to his potential short or long-term impact as a sire. When we consider great horses of the past, we’ll find that they run the range for spectularly successful to almost complete disasters. The horse that, in living memory, perhaps most closely resembles Frankel, at least in terms of the way he could completely destroy the opposition, was Secretariat. He was a reasonably successful sire, if disappointing relative to expectations;  a terrible sire of sires; but a breed-shaper as a broodmare sire (A.P. Indy, Storm Cat, Gone West to name but three). Oddly enough, Secretariat, from a pedigree standpoint, is something of an analog to Frankel. He was by the best sire of his day, Bold Ruler, and bred on the best cross for that stallion, that with Princequillo mares. However, he was also something of a physical outlier, and in general was not best-served by the mares to which he was bred, as he was a horse who would have been aided by speedier mares, rather than classic distance types.

In some of the power Frankel’s pedigree lies some of the challenge to his career as a stallion: he’s not only bred on the strongest cross for  his sire, but with Sadler’s Wells and Danehill, as his grandsires he’s going to be generally regarded as off limits to a high proportion of Europe’s top mares.That’s not to say that one can’t find plenty of other options, and we should note that the similarly-bred Teofilo is Europe’s current leading third season sire.

Among the most obvious is Shirley Heights (who has been best under Galileo through Darshaan and Mark of Esteem, but who could also be interesting through Slip Anchor, Deploy, and Darshaan’s son, Dalakhani). Sharpen Up through Kris and Diesis and Selkirk has strong appeal, as does Ahonoora and his Indian Ridge. Galileo has enjoyed a very strong affinity with mares from the Roberto line, including via Red Ransom, and his son, Intikhab, Silver Hawk, Lear Fan and Kris S. Galileo has done well when crossed back over mares carrying Sadler’s Wells’ three-quarters-brother, Nureyev, including two group winners out of mares by Nureyev himself and group one winner Rip Van Winkle out of a mare by Nureyev son, Stravinsky. Peintre Celebre and Spinning World are other sources of Nureyev that produced Galileo line stakes winners.

Galileo is out of a mare by Miswaki, a son of Mr. Prospector, but has not had a particularly good strike-rate with Mr. Prospector line mares. Galileo’s dam is a three-parts-sister to King’s Best, a son of Kingmambo (broodmare sire of a Galileo stakes winner), so that could be a strain to consider. It would not be out of the bounds of possibility to try a King’s Best mare giving Mr. Prospector  5 x 4 and Allegretta 4 x 3 (through Urban Sea and King’s Best).  With Danehill in the dam, it could be worth considering Machiavellian (broodmare sire of Galileo group one winner Red Rocks) giving linebreeding to Natalma, through two sons and a daughter in Frankel, and another daughter in Machiavellian (as well as another strain of Northern Dancer’s granddam, Almahmoud, through Halo). He hals also succeeded with Woodman, a three-quarters-relative to Miswaki, and that suggests Seeking the Gold might also work (with Dubawi being an obvious source). The best source of Machiavellian might be Street Cry, who brings in a cross of Never Bend. Distorted Humor and Fusaichi Pegasus daughters – giving inbreeding to Danzig – might also be possible. The Galileo/Blushing Groom cross has produce 11 stakes winners, and appeals through Rahy, Nashwan and Rainbow Quest. Galileo has a classic winner out of a Storm Cat mare, and Teofilo already has a group one winner out of a mare by Storm Cat son, Giant’s Causeway.

While Galileo has been exceptional with Danehill, he has also done well with other branches of Danzig.  Interestingly, Teofilo already has five stakes winners when crossed back over mares from the Danzig line, and branches to consider include Green Desert (sire of Invincible Spirit, Oasis Dream and Cape Cross), Anabaa, Sinndar and his sire Grand Lodge (by Chief’s Crown).

Finally, and although there will probably not be much inclination on the part of those putting up 125,000 pounds to breed to Frankel to experiment with relatively close inbreeding, we can note that Teofilo has sired group one winner Parish Hall out of a mare by Sadler’s Wells son Montjeu, and a stakes winner out of a mare by a son of Danehill (giving Danehill 2 x 3).

A.P. Indy, despite his preeminence as a sire of classic-distance dirt runners, is a little bit of a paradox in that he never sired a Kentucky Derby (gr. I), his sole classic winning colt being the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) victor, Bernardini (although he did have a daughter, Rags to Riches, capture the Belmont Stakes (gr. I)). We’ve previously hypothesized that in general, the best A.P. Indy’s developed too late for the Derby, but late-development was not the problem for Malibu Moon, the sire of yesterday’s Kentucky Derby hero, Orb. A son of French juvenile group one winner, Macoumba, Malibu Moon was in action as early as the end of April of his two-year-old season, and on his second start, which came at the end of May, he captured a five furlong Hollywood Park maiden in a sharp :57.41. Unfortunatly, due perhaps to a combination of being asked early, and a substantial frame, Malibu Moon suffered a career ending injury soon afterwards.

Starting his stud career inexpensively in Maryland, Malibu Moon soon earned a move to Kentucky, and even before Orb’s victory he was firmly established as a top-line sire, standing for $70,000 in 2013. Malibu Moon sired two talented males, Perfect Moon and Declan’s Moon (the Champion Two-Year-Old Colt of 2004) in his first two crops, but from Declan’s Moon’s victory in the 2004 Hollywood Futurity (gr. I), until Orb’s score in the 2013 Florida Derby (gr. I), he was not represented by another male grade one winner (actually, since Perfect Moon and Declan’s Moon were geldings, that race made Orb his sire’s first grade one winning colt). In the meantime, there was a slew of distaff grade one scorers such as Malibu Mint (from a Maryland crop), Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Ask The Moon, Malibu Prayer, Funny Moon and Eden’s Moon. Considering his ability to get two top-class males early in his career, and his physique, we’ve always wondered whether it’s not so much a case of Malibu Moon being a “filly sire” as his colts often being too big and heavy for their own good. With that in mind it will be interesting to see if some more good males are destined to appear.

The good news, however, is that we do look like having another branch of A.P. Indy, and interestingly enough, Orb’s pedigree is reminiscent of the currently leading standard-bearer for the line, Tapit. Both are by sires who are by sons of A.P Indy out of Mr. Prospector mares, and both are themselves out of mares by Unbridled (so they share 75% common ancestry in the third generation). Oddly enough, in view of what we’ve said about Malibu Moon and size, not only is his dam, Lady Liberty, by one very big horse, but his second dam is by another, she being the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) heroine, Mesabi Maiden, a daughter of Cox’s Ridge (who, like Unbridled was in the 17.00 hh range).  We do have a Kentucky Derby connection under the third dam, the stakes winning Damascus mare, Steel Maiden. She is a three-quarters sister to Private Terms (by Damascus’ son, Private Account). He came into the 1988 Kentucky Derby undefeated in seven starts, including the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I), and started co- favorite with eventual captress, Winning Colors, but bled in the race and finished ninth. He bled again when fourth in the Preakness, but returned to form to win other good races at three and four. Steel Maiden is also a sister to the dam of Coronado’s Quest, who captured the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. II), Travers Stakes (gr. I) and Haskell Invitational Stakes (gr. I), but who skipped the Derby, his volatile temperament being judged unsuitable for the rigorous of the pre-race ceremonies.

Orb’s fourth dam, Laughter, a daughter of Bold Ruler, is a three-quarters sister to the magnificent, but tragic Ruffian, and half-sister to the good runner and sire, Icecapade. The female line has been in Phipps/Janey hands since the purchase of Orb’s seventh  dam, Erin (a foal of 1927) from H. P. Whitney. Herself a stakes winner, Erin had as her granddam, Cherokee Rose II, a sister to Pennant, the sire of Whitney’s great runner, Equipoise. The Erin family also has Derby connections through two other descendents by Bold Ruler, Bold Commander (whose son, Dust Commander, took the Derby in 1970) and Irish Castle (sire of 1976 Derby laureate, Bold Forbes). Orb is TrueNicks rated A on the basis of the A.P. Indy/Unbridled cross. He’s the first stakes winner from seven foals by Malibu Moon out of mares by that horse, but he has five stakes winner from 31 starters (16%) out of mares by sons of Fappiano (which gives his broodmare sire, Mr. Prospector, 3 x 4).

Malibu Moon’s first classic winning colt came along in his tenth crop, but European Champion, New Approach, became a classic sire with his first crop, when his son, Dawn Approach, ran out a dominating five length winner of the 2,000 Guineas (gr. I). A son of Galileo – who has inherited the mantle previously worn by his sire Sadler’s Wells as “the World’s Leading Stallion” – New Approach was European Champion at two and three. New Approach boasted a lifetime record of eight wins in 11 starts, all but one in group events, among them the National Stakes (gr. I) and Dewhurst Stakes (gr. I) at two, and the Epsom Derby (gr. I), Irish Derby (gr. I) and Champion Stakes (gr. I) at three. Two of his defeats came in classics, behind Henrythenavigator in the English 2,000 Guineas (gr. I) – by a nose – and the Irish 2,000 Guineas (gr. I).

New Approach wasted little time in making a mark as a sire, and set a new standard for freshman at Royal Ascot last year with Dawn Approach (Coventry Stakes (gr. II)) being joined as a first crop black-type winner for by the ill-starred Albany Stakes (gr. III) victress Newfangled, and Tha’ir, who took the Chesham Stakes. Dawn Approach had kicked off his career as early as March last year, and ended the season undefeated in six races, adding the National Stakes (gr. I) and Dewhurst Stakes (gr. I).

Dawn Approach has a tangential pedigree connection to Orb as his dam, Hymn of the Dawn, is out of a mare by the brilliant U.S. dirt sprinter, Phone Trick (a grandson of Icecapade, who we’ve noted as a half-brother to the fourth dam of Orb). Dawn Approach actually marks the resurgence of a hitherto modest branch of a famous family. Neither his granddam, Colonial Debut (by Pleasant Colony), nor his third dam, Kittihawk Miss (by Alydar) produced a black-type winner, and there are actually only three previous black-type horses in his first three dams (although we should mention that Colonial Debut’s Tale of the Cat son, Galantas, was good enough to take third in the Woodbine Mile Stakes (gr. I).

Kittihawk Miss is a sister to Free Handicap Highweight Filly, Miss Oceana, and half-sister to the Prix Jean Prat (gr. I) victor, Kitwood, multiple graded stakes winner Larida, and stakes winner Ivory Wings. There are a host of other celebrities under Kittihawk Miss’s dam, the graded winning Sea-Bird II mare, Kittiwake, among them Magic of Life, Joshua Tree and Aruna. The next dam, Debutante Stakes victress Ole Liz, is also ancestress of Sabin, Love Theway Youare, Film Maker, E Z’s Gentleman, Fatah Flare, Street Sounds and Saint Anddan, to name a few. The family goes back to the famous foundation mare, Maggie B B (dam of Iroquois, who back in 1878 became the first U.S. foaled horse to win the Epsom Derby). Rated A++ by TrueNicks, Dawn Approach, is an outcross at five generations, other than having Nearctic 5 x 5 through the three-quarters related Northern Dancer and Icecapade.

Apparently, Dawn Approach’s next race is likely to be the Epsom Derby. We’re prepared to be proved wrong, but we find it hard to believe that a horse out of a Phone Trick mare will find 12 furlongs to his liking. What’s more intriguing to us is the prospect that Dawn Approach may develop a branch of the Sadler’s Wells/Galileo that produces top-class speedsters.

While Frankel was redefining greatness in the Northern Hemisphere – to the degree that he brought about a recalibration of the International Classification – the two years older Black Caviar was compiling her own remarkable record in Australia. In fact in terms of the lengths of her domination, Black Caviar outdid Frankel, her unbeaten 25 race career – including 15 group/grade one victories – seeing her win stakes in six consecutive calendar years. She was the World’s top rated sprinter in 2010, 2011 and 2012, and Australian Champion Sprinter and Horse of the Year in 2011 and 2012. She also win at the highest level in both hemispheres, her class pulling her through when below her best, to capture the Diamond Jubilee Stakes (gr. I) at Royal Ascot on her sole appearance outside of Australia.

Black Caviar is a daughter of Bel Esprit, a grade one winning sprinter/miler by Nijinsky II’s Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. I) victor, Royal Academy, out of the Desert Sun (by Green Desert) mare, Helsinge. The family, which goes back to Love Song – a Danish-bred mare who captured that country’s Oaks (gr. I), and who is fourth dam of Black Caviar – has been on fire of late.  Black Caviar’s half-brother, All Too Hard, has one three grade ones, including the Caulfield Guineas (gr. I) to his credit, is very possible the best three-year-old of the current crop in Australia. The second dam, the graded winning and grade one placed Snippets mare, Scandinavia, is also dam of the Galaxy Stakes (gr. I) victor, Magnus; the multiple graded stakes winner Wilander; and Scandinavia, a grade two scorer who was also runner-up in last weekend’s Sires’ Produce Stakes (gr. I). From a pattern standpoint Black Caviar is notable in that her sire is out of a mare bred on a cross of Vain (one of the fastest sprinters seen in Australia) and Paul Mellon’s Champion Stakes winner Silly Season, while Scandinavia, her granddam is a Silly Season/Vain cross.

The big question now, is which stallion will have the privilege of serving Black Caviar in her first season at stud? The good news as far Australian options are concerned is that the TrueNicks Key Ancestor Report shows that several Danehill line stallions rate highly here. Redoute’s Choice, a Danehill Champion Sire son, is an A nick, and the top-rated horse by Key Ancestor score. His granddam gives linebreeding to Silly Season’s son, Lunchtime, and to Nijinsky II (who combines well with Lunchtime’s grandsire, Tom Fool). Danehill’s latest superstar sire, Fastnet Rock, is responsible for Scandiva out of Black Caviar’s granddam, and would give an intriguing 3 x 3 inbreeding to Royal Academy. Exceed and Excel, fifth rated by Key Ancestor score (with a very positive number), is a Danehill who is enjoying a phenomenal season with his Australian two-year-olds, and sired the speedy Wilander from the family. Moving to a horse who is out of a Danehill mare, Sepoy, the highest ever rated three-year-old sprinter on the International Classifications.

At one point, there was suggestion that Black Caviar may be among the group of Southern Hemisphere mares that will be visiting Frankel, another out of a daughter of Danehill. He does have a positive Key Ancestor score, but his TrueNicks rating does not inspire. A European stallion who has stronger appeal is Dubawi.  Should she ever venture to North America, the wonder-mare would appeal with War Front or Tapit, who has a turf grade one winner out of a Nijinsky II line mare.

The current topper by 2012 earnings is Champion Sprinter, and two-time Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. I) victor, Midnight Lute. The son of Real Quiet (by Quiet American) has three colts that have run really well in classic trials this year: Shakin It Up, successful in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II), the Sunland Derby (gr. III) scorer Govenor Charlie, and My Lute, who ran a huge race when beaten a neck by Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II). On the distaff side, he’s been represented by Midnight Lucky, who ran away with the Sunland Park Oaks, and juvenile stakes winner Midnight Ballet. Shakin It Up is by out of a mare by Vindication (Seattle Slew), and Govenor Charlie from a daughter of Storm Cat, and in both cases the second dam is Champion Silverbulletday, who is by Silver Deputy (reverse Deputy Minister/Mr. Prospector cross to Midnight Lute). My Lute is out of a daughter of Valid Expectations (Valid Appeal), so an extended version of the Fappiano/In Reality cross that also produced Real Quiet. Midnight Lucky’s dam is another Northern Dancer/Mr. Prospector cross (like Silver Deputy), and her dam is by Citidancer (Dixieland Band), a horse who has done well under Fappiano. Midnight Ballet – a Pedigree Consultants recommended mating – is out of a mare by Unbridled’s Song, so is a Fappiano/Fappiano cross with that strain coming through the genetic relatives Quiet American and Unbridled. At first glance, it appears that Midnight Lute is throwing more to his middle-distance pedigree than his sprinting race-record, and it also appears that his well-known wind problems are not generally being transmitted to his offspring (on that point it’s interesting to note that he already has at least three stakes horses out of Storm Cat line mares).

Into Mischief, a son of Harlan’s Holiday, appeared on the radar late last year, and has more than maintained his momentum since then. From a first crop sired at $10,000, he has a pair of genuine Kentucky Derby (gr. I) prospects in Goldencents, winner of the Sham Stakes (gr. III) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), and Vyjack, successful in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) and Jerome Stakes (gr. II), and a good third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I). He also already has three other stakes horses, including the black-type winning filly, Sittin At The Bar. Goldencents is out of a mare by Banker’s Gold, a son of Forty Niner out of a Nijinsky II mare (so giving Storm Bird and two crosses of his genetic relative Nijinsky II). Sittin At the Bar is out of a mare from another branch of the Mr. Prospector line, as her dam is by Mutakddim (by Seeking the Gold). Vyjack is out of a daughter of Stravinsky (by Nureyev). Into Mischief himself has a race-record that speaks of precocity and speed. He took CashCall Futurity (gr. I) in a very quick time at the end of his two-year-old season. He ran second to grade one winner Georgie Boy in San Vicente Stakes (gr. III) first time out at three, but was then sidelined to the Autumn. On his return, he won the seven furlong Damascus Stakes, stopping the clock in 1:20.38, while defeating Georgie Boy and other grade one winners Dancing in Silks and Gayego, then ended his career with a second in the Malibu Stakes (gr. I). However, he’s not shaping like a sprint sire, and his best are clearly plenty effective in the 8½ – 9 furlong range.

One of the most highly-touted members of this crop was Majestic Warrior, a Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner by A.P. Indy, whose first two dams were both grade one winners at seven furlongs. He led all freshman by individual two-year-old winners last year, with 30, but was a little light as far as black-type was concerned. He’s rather turned things around this year, however, with his three-year-olds including Declan’s Warrior (dam by Saint Ballado), who took the Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III) last weekend; Princess of Sylmar (dam by Catienus, by Storm Cat, and also 4 x 3 to Dixieland Band), winner of the Busher Stakes and Busanda Stakes, and second in the Gazelle Stakes (gr. II) at the weekend; and stakes winners Special Warrior (our of a mare by Point Given) and Ante Up Annie (from daughter of Regal Intention). Post the weekend’s activity, he doesn’t look a bad play for his advertised 2013 fee of $12,500.

Fourth is the deceased Champion Two-Year-Old War Pass (by Cherokee Run). His first runners are headed by Revolutionary (out of A.P. Indy’s grade one winning daughter, Runup the Colors, a three-parts-sister to Mineshaft), who looks sure to be a leading Kentucky Derby (gr. I) fancy after wins in the Withers Stakes (gr. II) and Louisiana Derby (gr. II), and also includes stakes winner Java’s War (out of a Rainbow Quest mare, making him a Blushing Groom/Blushing Groom cross), runner-up to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II), and shooting to gain a Derby berth in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I).  He also has a stakes winner and a graded stakes placed horse from his first shuttle crop in Australia (now two). He looks like he might have been OK, but at least Revolutionary has enough performance on the board and enough pedigree to make sure he’ll have his shot at extending this branch of the Blushing Groom line.

The leader of this group as a racehorse, two-time Horse of the Year, Curlin (Smart Strike) sits fifth here. At this stage of his own career, he’d made just two starts (winning the Rebel Stakes (gr. III) on the second) and was about to runaway with the Arkansas Derby (gr. II), so it’s very early to pass judgement here. He does have a Derby possible in Palace Malice (out of a mare by Theatrical son, Royal Anthem), who finished third in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), had a horrible trip in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II), and will attempt to earn his way into the first classic in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). He’s also had stakes winner Countess Curlin (dam by Private Account) and the graded stakes placed filly Blue Violet (dam by Silver Deputy, so 3 x 3 to Curlin’s broodmare sire, Deputy Minister) and English stakes placed filly Savanna La Mar (dam by Pivotal, so bred on the same broad cross – over Nureyev – as Palace Malice).

A close relative to the much-missed Empire Maker, Forego Handicap (gr. I) victor First Defence (by Unbridled’s Song) was represented by his first U.S. stakes winner at the weekend when Close Hatches (out of a Storm Cat mare) stamped herself as a leading Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) prospect with a win in the Gazelle Stakes (gr. II). He also has a smart English prospect in Dundonnell – winner of the Acomb Stakes (gr. III) last year – who is out of a sister to Danehill.

First Defence rounds out the the top five second season sires still standing in the U.S., but several others in the top 20 have a stakes winner to their name this year. Divine Park (by Empire Maker’s Mr. Prospector half-brother, Chester House) has By The Light Stakes winner, Dancinginthecircle (dam by Orientate, by Mt. Livermore). Kingmambo’s grade one winning son, Student Council, has been represented by the Martha Washington Stakes victress Sister Ginger (dam by Silver Hawk, like Student Council’s own broodmare sire, Kris S., a son of Roberto).

Horse Greeley is a son of Mr. Greeley, who stands at Claiborne Farm, Paris, Kentucky for just $2,500. He’s only had 26 starters and has last year’s Hollywood Prevue (gr. III) captor Really Mr Greely (dam by Forest Camp, a son of Deputy Minister) and this year’s Swale Stakes (gr. III) winner Clearly Now (dam by Arch), also a close second in the Bay Shore (gr. III) at the weekend. Hard to know if he’ll have numbers to break out commercially, but you’ve got to think that he looks value as a racehorse sire at his current fee. We’ve covered one of last year’s breakout freshman, Spring At Last (Silver Deputy) in detail before, but we’ll note that one of last year’s stars, Spring Venture (dam by Rahy) is a stakes winner again this term. We’ll also give a call to New York’s Frost Giant (Giant’s Causeway). He was a record-breaking Leading Freshman Sire in the state last year, and while he doesn’t have a stakes winner this year, three of his first crop have placed in open company in 2013, including the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) second West Hills Giant (dam by Take Me Out, by Cure the Blues) and the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) third Giant Finish (dam by Hickman Creek, by Seattle Slew).

Animal Kingdom’s sire, Leroidesanimaux started only three times in Brazil, for a maiden win and a third in a grade one, but won won eight of ten starts in the U.S., earning a title as Champion Turf Horse as a five-year-old. He was a graded winner from 6½ to 8½ furlongs, his victories including the Atto Mile (gr. I) and Frank E. Kilroe Mile (gr. I). He is by Candy Ride, a Blushing Groom son who never won a stakes, but did get second in  the French 2,000 Guineas (gr. I), moved up from third on a dq. Candy Ride was a very successful sire in South America, and he’s previously appeared in the sire line of a Dubai World Cup (gr. I) winner in the shape of his son, Invasor.

Animal Kingdom’s dam, Dalicia, was a smart performer in her native county, winning the Gr. 3 Preis der Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe at 11 furlongs, and the ten furlong Professor Hans Merkt-Rennen. She is by Acatenango (by German Derby winner, and outstanding sire, Surumu), a three-time Horse of the Year in Germany, whose triumphs included the German Derby (gr. I), Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (gr. I), the Grosser Preis von Berlin (gr. I), and back-to-back renewals of the Grosser Preis von Baden (gr. I). Subsequently Acatenango became a highly-successful sire, his offspring winning three German Derbies and a French Derby.  Dalicia’s full-sister, Darwinia, is dam of the Black Sam Bellamy mare, Daveron, a listed winner in Germany,  who also carried same Team Valor colours as Animal Kingdom, and gave her owners a remarkable double by taking the Beaugay Stakes (gr. III) at Belmont Park, on the same afternoon as Animal Kingdom’s Kentucky Derby (gr. I) victory.

Dynamis, the dam of Dalicia is by Dancing Brave (by Lyphard), and is half-sister to both Champion German Two-Year-Old Filly Desidera, and  to German 1,000 Guineas (gr. I) victress Diacada.  The third dam, Diasprina, was another juvenile champion in German, and the female line has been a very solid one in Germany for several generations. The sixth dam was foaled in Hungary, where the family arrived from England in the early 1900s, and goes back to a mare called Scene (1895), a fairly close relative to Bromus, the dam of Phalaris (the horse to whom the majority of the breed now trace in male-line).

Animal Kingdom is a product of the Blushing Groom/Acatenango cross that has already produced three stakes winners from only 12 starters. The closest duplication in the pedigree is to Northern Dancer’s son, Lyphard. He is a Nearco/Court Martial (Fair Trial) cross, and Blushing Groom is bred on a cross of Nearco with Wild Risk (a horse who does very well with Court Martial), with a dam by Fair Trial’s genetic relative, Tudor Minstrel. For good measure, Aggressor II, the broodmare sire of Acatenango, is by Combat (granddam, a three-parts-sister to Fair Trial), out of a mare bred on an identical Nearco/Hyperion cross to Nearctic, the grandsire of Lyphard.

The Sheema Classic (gr. I) went to St. Nicholas Abbey (TrueNicks A++) – best known in the U.S. as winner of the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Turf (gr. I) – who outstayed Japanese wonder-mare, Gentildonna. St. Nicholas Abbey is another star for the late Sadler’s Wells stallion, Montjeu, whose established himself as an outstanding classic stallion through such as Pour Moi, Motivator, Hurricane Run, Scorpion, Authorised, Nom du Jeu, Frozen Fire, Fame and Glory and Camelot. He is out of Leaping Water, a daughter of Sure Blade, who has also produced the Sunset Handicap (gr. II) and San Gabriel Handicap (gr. II) victor Grammarian. St. Nicholas Abbey’s granddam, Flamenco Wave is a daughter of the U.S.-raced Desert Wine, and won the Moyglare Stud Stakes (gr. I) at two. Perhaps because of the Never Bend strain that has done so well with Sadler’s Wells – he appears as broodmare sire of Desert Wine – Flamenco Wave proved to have quite an affinity with Sadler’s Wells producing Canadian International (gr. I) and Criterium de Saint-Cloud (gr. I) winner Ballingarry, and Racing Post Trophy (gr. I) winner Aristotle (she did also breed two-time group one winning miler Starborough to Soviet Star, and group winner Spanish Falls, a daughter of Belmez). St. Nicholas Abbey is the only group winner for Montjeu out of a Sharpen Up line mare, but Sharpen Up also appears in the pedigree of six other Montjeu  stakes winners, including classic scorers Motivator and Hurricane Run. He’s also inbred 5 x 5 to Forli, through the similarly-bred Special and Home Guard.

King’s Best very nearly had a Dubai World Cup (gr. I) winner to his credit, his son Allybar having come with a nose and a short-head of taking victory in 2010. This year, he did get a major winner on World Cup, his daughter, Sajjhaa (TrueNicks A+), defeating South African star The Apache, to take the Dubai Duty Free (gr. I), her fourth win in four starts this year.  A 2,000 Guineas (gr. I) winner, by Kingmambo, and three-quarters related to Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (gr. I) victress Urban Sea, subsequently a super-producer, most notably of Galileo. Given that level of performance and pedigree, King’s Best has not been the dominant sire one might have hoped for, and he is now in Japan, after having previously stood in England (or Ireland) and France. That said, he does have eight group or grade one winners to his name, and in 2010 completed an international Derby double with Workforce, who scored at Epsom, and Eishin Flash, who took the Japan Derby (gr. I).

Now six, Sajjhaa, is out of the Darshaan mare Anaamil. The second dam, Noushkey (by Polish Precedent), was an accomplished middle-distance runner, winning the Lancashire Oaks (gr. III) and taking second in the Epsom Oaks (gr. I). Nouskey is half-sister to San Sebastian, who took the Prix du Cadran (gr. I), and to German highweight and multiple group winner Chesa Plana, who subsequently produced the Japan Cup (gr. I) and Grand de Paris (gr. I) captor Alkaased to King’s Best’s sire, Kingmambo. The fourth dam, Home and Away, is a half-sister to Champion Irish Two-Year-Old Filly Welsh Garden, and to Galaxy Libra, successful in the Sunset Handicap (gr.  I) in the U.S. Home and Away is also a granddaughter of Mesopotamia, Champion Two-Year-Old Filly in England and Ireland, and ancestress of several major stakes winners, including Halling, a top-class older horse in Europe at around ten furlongs.

A very impressive winner at Churchill Downs on his debut at two, Reynaldothewizard turned out to be something of a disappointment over the balance of his U.S. career. Beaten around 7½ lengths when third as favourite in the Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) on his second start, Reynaldothewizard’s only other placing from six starts stateside was a third in a Churchill Downs allowance at three. Sent to Dubai, Reynadlothewizard showed useful form as a sprint handicapper, and won three times in nine starts over three seasons (although he failed to hit the board in four starts last year). At the age of seven, and wearing blinkers for the first time, Reynaldothewizard showed considerably improved form first time out this term, defeating a strong field for a six furlong conditions sprint on January 24, at odds of 20-1. Similarly-equipped, the gelding then defeated last year’s Golden Shaheen (gr. I) scorer Krypton Factor, by four lengths in the Maban Al Shimaal (gr. III). The Maban Al Shimaal form turned out to be the key to the Golden Shaheen (gr. I), as Reynaldothewizard was chased home by the Al Shimaal third Balmont Mast with Krypton Factor third.

Reynaldothewizard is from the first crop five crops to run to date for Champion Sprinter Speightstown, and follows Haynesfield, Lord Shanakill, Jersey Town, Poseidon’s Warrior, Golden Ticket and Mona de Momma, as his seventh group or grade one winner. Holiday Runner, the dam of Reynaldothewizard, has produced another talented runner in Seventh Street, a Street Cry daughter who won five of her ten starts, including the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I) and Go for Wand Handicap (gr. I), as well as being multiple grade one placed. A daughter of Meadowlake, Holiday Runner herself was a very precocious two-year-old, winning the Three Chimneys Juvenile Stakes and Fashion Stakes. She was the only stakes winner produced by either her dam, Dixie Holiday, or her granddam, the Anoakia Stakes (gr. III) victress Really Fancy, but Really Fancy’s dam, Native Fancy won a trio of black-type events, including the Hollywood Lassie Stakes (gr. II), and produced the multiple graded stakes winner Blushing Heiress.

It wasn’t easy, but South African Champion Two-Year-Old Soft Falling Rain took his record for seven-for-seven with a gutsy victory in the Godolphin Mile (gr. II), in the process becoming the first three-year-old to defeat his elders in this contest.  Soft Falling Rain is a son of National Assembly. By Danzig out of the Buckpasser mare, Renounce, and from the same family as Leading Sire What a Pleasure, National Assembly was $2,500,000 yearling purchase by Robert Sangster. Sent to Ireland to be trained by Vincent O’Brien, National Assembly was prevent from running at two by a virus, and chipped his knee before he could be raced at three. He retired to stand at Highlands Stud in South Africa in 1988, and enjoyed a very successful career, getting nine other grade one winners, including National Emblem (of whom more later).

Soft Falling Rain is out of the U.S.-bred  Giant’s Causeway mare, Gardner’s Delight, a minor winner in South Africa. She is out of Highbury, a Seattle Slew half-sister to the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) victress, Gal In A Ruckus, and to the dams of Clean Sweep, who took the New Zealand 2,000 Guineas (gr. I), and Habibti, who was successful in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I) and Del Mar Debutante Stakes (gr. I), and subsequently produced the Breeders’ Cup Marathon (gr. III) and Brooklyn Handicap (gr. II) captor Eldaafer. The fourth dam, Quillopoly, is also fourth dam of two-time U.S. Leading Sire, Smart Strike.

 National Assembly’s sire line completed a World Cup Day day double when Shea Shea (TrueNicks A), a son of the previously mentioned National Emblem took the five furlong Al Quoz Sprint (gr. I) lowering his own five furlong course-record. National Emblem was a grade one winner at ten furlongs at five – at which age he was Champion Older Horse in South Africa – but has sired several other grade one winning sprinters.

The dam, Yankee Clipper, who is by the Blushing Groom stallion Jallad, was a stakes winner at a mile in South Africa, and she is half-sister to Melting Moments, and to the dam of Leeward, both black-type winners in that country. The granddam, Georgie Gorgeous, is by Northfields (a half-brother to Habitat who enjoyed a very successful stud career in Ireland before being exported to South Africa), and is half-sister to South African sprint ace Fov’s Favourite. Shea Shea’s third dam, Queen’s Favourite, is inbred 2 x 4 to Bride Elect (winner of the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, and dam of the St. Leger winner Hethersett). The family has been in South Africa since the early 1950’s but goes back to a half-sister (actually closer, since the sires are siblings) to the 1943 2,000 Guineas hero, Kingsway.

In the two-mile Dubai Gold Cup (gr. III), Cavalryman had way too much finishing speed for his opponents at the business end of a slowly-run race. The seven-year-old is by the veteran Diesis stallion, Halling, who himself had very good form in Dubai, and also took back-to-back runnings of the Eclipse Stakes (gr. I) and Juddmonte International (gr. I). Halling’s only been represented by two group one winners, Cavalryman –who took the much shorter Grand Prix de Paris (gr. I) earlier in his career – and the Prix Ganay (gr. I) victor Cutlass Bay, but he’s been a very consistent stakes sire, with a total of 48 stakes winners, 26 of them group or graded.

Cavalryman’s dam, Silversword (by Highest Honor), gained a group place with a second in the Prix de Royaumont (gr. III), and is a sister to a good long distance performer in Double Honour, a listed scorer in Germany who was also second in the Goodwood Cup (gr. II). Cavalryman’s granddam, Silver Cobra, is a sister to the U.S. grade one winner Silver Ending, and half-sister to Fiery Copper, the granddam of South African grade one laureate Copper Parade. Silver Cobra is by Silver Hawk, and the mating of Silver Hawk with a half-sister to Silver Cobra’s dam came up with Magnificent Style. She won the Musidora Stakes (gr. II), but is now far more famous as the dam of no less than eight individual stakes winners, including Great Heavens, Nathaniel, Playful Act, Changing Skies, Percussionist and Echoes in Eternity.

Last seen finishing a troubled seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I), Irish-trained Lines of Battle (TrueNicks A+) qualified himself for an automatic berth in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) – where he is apparently now headed – with a victory in the UAE Derby (gr. II). Lines of Battle is from the third crop of War Front (Danzig), a who did his best work as a sprinter on the dirt, who continues to show the impact of Forli and Round Table as the sire of his second and third dams, throwing a lot of mile/nine furlong ability, and a number being effective on turf and all-weather.

Lines of Battle is out of the Arch mare, Black Speck, a minor winner in France, and previously dam of the Prix de Sandringham (gr. III) winner Homebound; of Blue Exit, a Pulpit colt who was a listed scorer in France and grade two placed in the U.S.; and of the Grand Criterium (gr. I) runner-up Battle Paint. Black Speck is out of the Top Flight Handicap (gr. I) winner Andover Way, and since Black Speck is by a grandson of Roberto, she is closely related to Andover Way’s Roberto son, Dynaformer.  The cross of Roberto’s son, Red Ransom, with Andover Way produced another close related to Black Speck, in My Annette, the dam of the stakes winning and multiple group one placed sprinter U S Ranger, who is very similarly-bred to Lines of Battle, as he is by Danzig. Of course this is also the family of Monarchos, Sunshine Forever, Brian’s Time, Air Shakur and Offlee Wild. As Arch, his broodmare sire, is out of a mare by Danzig, Lines of Battle has Danzig 2 x 4 in his pedigree, and he’s the second Danzig line stakes winner from only 14 starters out of Arch mares.

One of the most outstanding performers of the winter has been Champion South African Two-Year-Old Soft Falling Rain, who took his undefeated record to six, with a decisive win in the UAE 2,000 Guineas (gr. III). He is by the very successful South African sire, National Assembly (by Danzig out of Renounce from the Grey Flight family). His dam is U.S. bred, by Giant’s Causeway – becoming a very good broodmare sire – out of Highbury, a Seattle Slew half-sister to the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) victress, Gal In A Ruckus.

Another Danzig line horse to score in Meydan was Hard Spun, whose second season son Now Spun (TrueNicks A) took the one mile Medyan Classic. Now Spun is out of Campionessa, a daughter of A.P. Indy, and we’ve been waiting for Hard Spun to work with Seattle Slew, as that strain combined well with Turkoman, the broodmare sire of Hard Spun.

The Danehill branch of Danzig has also been doing well in Medyan this winter. Australian-sired Mushreq (TrueNicks A++), by Flying Spur out of a mare by Jeune (by Kalamoun) took the Al Fahidi Fort (gr. II). He is half-brother to stakes winner Jazza Belle, and out of a stakes winning half-sister to outstanding Australia sire, Snippets, and to the up-and-coming Australian sire, Not A Single Doubt. Danehill son, Rock of Gibraltar, has a very close relative to Riverman as his granddam, and he has done very well when crossed with mares carrying that strain. The latest example is Russian Rock (TrueNicks A++) who is out of a mare by Brief Truce (by Riverman’s son, Irish River), and who took the Jebel Ali Sprint.  Oratorio, a Danehill son who has stood in Ireland, Australia and Italy, has actually always been quite useful, although never fashionable. He had another black-type winner in the shape of Moonwalk in Paris (TrueNicks A), who is out of a mare by Singspiel, a cross (Danehill/Singspiel) that has also produced grade one winners Helmet and Epaulette.

Another strain that has been running wild in winter in Dubai is that of Gone West. The horse himself was represented by Jebel Ali Mile (gr. III) winner Treble Jig (TrueNicks A) out of the Danehill mare, Light Jig, winner of the Yellow Ribbon Stakes (gr. I). The second dam, the Blushing Groom mare, Nashmeel, was second in that race, and a group winner in France.

The UAE Oaks (gr. III) went to Shuruq, who is by Gone West’s son, Elusive Quality, out of Miss Lucifer, a French-bred daughter of Noverre.  The runner-up here, Lovely Pass, had previously defeated Shuruq in the UAE 1,000 Guineas. She is from the first crop of Elusive Quality’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) winner, Raven’s Pass, who is off to a promising start with three stakes winners to his name, as well as Snowboarder (out of a Distorted Humor half-sister to Munnings), who was runner-up in the UAE 2,000 Guineas (gr. III). Lovely Pass is out of a mare by Classic Cliché (by the Topsider horse, Salse).

Still with Gone West, his grandson, Trade Fair (by Zafonic out of a Danehill mare) was represented by the Zabeel Mile (gr. II) scorer Trade Storm  (TrueNicks A++), who accounted for South African grade one winner Musir (an Australian-sired son of Redoute’s Choice). Trade Fair is out of Frisson, a daughter of Slip Anchor. Nearly five years after he started favorite for the  Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II), in which he finished third,Gone West grandson, Reynaldothewizard gained his first stakes win when downing last year’s Golden Shaheen (gr. I) winner, Krypton Factor, in the Mahab Al Shimaal (gr. III). Reynaldothewizard is from the first crop of Speightstown, and out of Meadowlake’s juvenile grade one winner, Holiday Runner.

Dubawi, who is from the Seeking the Gold branch of Mr. Prospector had a Dubai graded stakes double, with the Nad Al Sheba Trophy (gr. II) scorer Ahzeemah (TrueNicks A), and the Maktoum Challenge (gr. II) captor Hunter’s Light (TrueNicks A). This duo are bred somewhat similarly, Ahzeemah out of a mare by Entrepreneur, and Hunter’s Light from a daughter of Barathea, both broodmare sires being by Sadler’s Wells. Entrepreneur is a reverse Northern Dancer/Raise a Native cross to Dubai Millennium, the sire of Dubawi. Barathea is a Northern Dancer/Sir Gaylord cross, like Shareef Dancer and Dancing Brave, both in the pedigree of Dubawi. The dam of Dubawi is is a reverse Shirley Heights/Northern Dancer cross to the dam of Hunter’s Light.

Another from the Mr. Prospector line, King’s Best (by Kingmambo), who is now in Japan, was represented by the six-year-old mare, Sajjhaa, who took the Balanchine (gr. II), from another Kingmambo line distaffer, Prussian (by Dubai Destination), with Galileo’s South African Champion Igugu third, then added the Jebel Hatta (gr. I).  Sajjhaa is out of the Darshaan mare, Anaamil (and TrueNicks rated A+). The second dam, Noushkey, won the Lancashire Oaks (gr. III) and was second in the Epsom Oaks (gr. I).

From the Storm Cat line comes Champion South African Two-Year-Old The Apache (by Mogok, a Storm Cat half-brother to Machiavellian), winner of the nine furlong Al Rashidiya (gr. II). He’s out of a mare by Dolpour (by Sadler’s Wells) and his dam (out South African grade one winner, Bold West), is a Northern Dancer/Bold Ruler cross, like Storm Cat. The Al Maktoum Challenge (gr. II) went to Barbecue Eddie (TrueNicks A++), who is one of six stakes winners from 26 starters by Stormy Atlantic out of mares by Carson City.

Another high performing nick is that of Australia/U.S. shuttle, Lonhro with mares by Fanfreluche’s brother, Night Shift, which as six stakes winners, four graded, two grade one, from only 11 starters. One bred on that cross, Mental, took the Al Shindagha Sprint (gr. III).

The Northern Californian route to the Triple Crown events tends to be “the road less traveled by” these days, at least for major contenders. In fact, the last time the winner of Bay Meadows’ El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), Northern California’s top event for 3-year-olds, placed in a Triple Crown event was back in 1996 when Cavonnier was beaten a nose by Grindstone in the 1999 renewal of the Kentucky Derby (gr. I).

The previous year, El Camino Real Derby victor Jumron was a good fourth in the Derby, and if we continue to go back we find such El Camino Real winners as Tabasco Cat, who went on to take the 1994 Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes (both gr. I); Casual Lies, second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness Stakes in 1992; Snow Chief, hero of the 1986 renewal of the Preakness Stakes; and Tank’s Prospect, who annexed the Preakness the previous year. We should also mention 1998 El Camino Real Derby captor Event of the Year, who probably would have started favorite for the Kentucky Derby had he not been sidelined by injury.

Dice Flavor, who scored an impressive victory in this year’s El Camino Real Derby, faces at least one challenge that the previously mentioned classic stars did not: He has yet to start on dirt. He kicked off his career with a third and a fifth in turf sprints at Santa Anita and Hollywood Park, before closing out his 2-year-old campaign with a decisive tally going 8 1/2 furlongs on the grass at Hollywood Park. His only other start prior to the El Camino Real saw Dice Flavor finish a close third in a one-mile Santa Anita turf allowance test.

In contrast, Dice Flavor’s sire, Scat Daddy  , raced only on dirt. The son of “world champion” 2-year-old Johannesburg was near the top of his generation at 2, winning three of five starts, including the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) and Sanford Stakes (gr. II), in which he defeated fellow Johannesburg son Teuflesberg   (sire of champion sprinter Trinniberg in his first crop). Scat Daddy was also second to Circular Quay   in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I), and ended his first campaign with a fourth to runaway winner Street Sense   in the Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (gr. I). A ring rusty-looking third in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) first time out at 3, Scat Daddy rebounded to defeat Stormello and Nobiz Like Shobiz   in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II). Scat Daddy cemented his status as a leading Derby prospect with a comfortable win in the Florida Derby (gr. I). He started third favorite for the 2007 “Run for the Roses,” but finished 18th as Street Sense defeated Hard Spun   and Curlin  . Subsequently, Scat Daddy was found to have suffered a tendon injury, and he was retired to stand at Ashford Stud, where his 2013 fee is $30,000.

The leading freshman sire of 2011, Scat Daddy is represented by seven first-crop stakes winners (five of them as juveniles), including Lady of Shamrock, whose successes include the American Oaks and Del Mar Oaks (both gr. IT); Daddy Long Legs, who took the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Eng-II) at 2 and the UAE Derby Sponsored by The Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (UAE-II) at 3; Daddy Nose Best, successful in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) and last year’s El Camino Real Derby (gr. III); the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III) victor Shared Property; and Finale, who scored in the 2011 Summer Stakes Presented by TVG (Can-IIIT). His second crop already has produced four stakes winners, with Dice Flavor being joined by the Cincinnati Trophy victress Allanah as a 2013 black type winner.

The El Camino Real Derby weekend was remarkably productive for Dice Flavor’s dam Afleet Summer, as just a few hours prior to Dice Flavor’s triumph, her 5-year-old, Swift Warrior (by First Samurai   so, like Dice Flavor, by a Storm Cat-line stallion) captured the Tampa Bay Stakes (gr. IIIT). This was a second graded win for Swift Warrior, who also owns victories in the John B. Connally Turf Cup Stakes (gr. IIIT), Win Stakes at Saratoga, and Turfway Park’s Rushaway Stakes. Afleet Summer is also dam of the stakes-winning filly Carolina Sky (by Sky Classic, a horse whose sire, Nijinsky II, has some notable pedigree similarities to Storm Bird, the sire of Storm Cat).

A daughter of Afleet, Afleet Summer is a half sister to the French listed scorer and group-placed runner Limelight. Her dam, the stakes-placed Lyphard mare Steal the Thunder, is a sister to Storm On the Loose, a talented turf performer who won a pair of graded stakes and took second in the Arlington Handicap (gr. IT). Steal the Thunder is also a half sister to the stakes-placed Stormeor (by Lyphard’s son Lypheor), herself dam of multiple stakes winner Second in Command and of Shrike (by Afleet), a close relative to Afleet Summer who took the Fred W. Hooper Handicap (gr. III). Dice Flavor’s third dam, That’s a Kennedy, is by Canadian Horse of the Year Kennedy Road out of the noted producer Classy Quillo. Dam of stakes winners Money By Orleans and Baraquillo, Classy Quillo has had a greater impact on the breed through her stakes-placed Nodouble daughter No Class. Dam of Canadian champions Sky Classic (also champion turf horse in the U.S.), Regal Classic, Grey Classic, and Classy ‘n Smart, as well as the grade I winner Always a Classic, No Class is ancestress of numerous other major performers, including twice leading sire Smart Strike; Dance Smartly, champion 3-year-old filly in the U.S. and a multiple champion in Canada; and other Canadian champions Hello Seattle and Dancethruthedawn.

Dice Flavor, who is inbred 5X3X3 to Mr. Prospector, follows graded scorers Handsome Mike and Daddy Nose Best as the third graded winner for Scat Daddy out of a Mr. Prospector-line mare. Rather intriguingly, Handsome Mike is out of a mare by Smart Strike who, as a son of Mr. Prospector, is from the same sire line and family as the dam of Dice Flavor. We can also note that Scat Daddy is a reverse Northern Dancer/Mr. Prospector cross to Afleet Summer, while his dam is a parallel cross to that mare. Handsome Mike and Daddy Nose Best both captured stakes on dirt, but without ruling out Dice Flavor as a prospect for that surface, we’ll note that his pedigree includes a lot of turf performance close up, and so it would be no surprise if grass and all-weather turn out to be his ideal surfaces.

Planning a mating for this kind of mare can be quite a challenge, as more often than not the mare’s sire line has had very few opportunities to be tested under the strains prevalent in the new region, so there is little evidence for sire line/broodmare sire line crosses. Delving through what are often some very unfamiliar names, deep pedigree research will sometimes throw up strains also found in the background of the home population, but the degree of success or otherwise that might be enjoyed by linking these up is a generally a matter of speculation. Similarly we sometimes come across mares that are by sires from one region out of mares from a totally different one, and so have pedigrees that are “in two halves.” It might be easy enough to find a sire line cross that fits, but it can be a lot less clear whether that cross has a potential affinity for the pedigree as a whole.

One mare that presents this kind of challenge is the splendid Peruvian mare Almudena. A champion in her native country where she captured the local 1,000 Guineas (Per-I, video below) and defeated colts in the Clasico Presidente de La Republica (Per-II), Almudena also showed very good form in Argentina, with a second in the Criadores (Arg-I) and third in the 25 de Mayo (Arg-I) before coming to the U.S. for a tilt at the Breeders’ Cup Marathon (gr. II).

A half sister to champion Peruvian grass mare Azucena, Almudena is by Silver Planet, who was born in Argentina, as was his sire, Fitzcarraldo, and his grandsire, Cipayo. In turn, Cipayo was by the imported stallion Lacydon, a son of the English stayer Alycidon (by Tesio’s Italian Derby hero Donatello II). With that information at hand, it’s fairly obvious that Almudena is not the simplest mare to mate with the North American commercial population.

So, what do we find when we run Almudena against a group of U.S. commercial sires? Well, a number of very familiar strains come up as positive ancestors, among them Deputy Minister; Relaunch and his sire, In Reality; Seattle Slew; Nijinsky II; Storm Bird; Crimson Saint; and Halo. As a result, when the Key Ancestors Report with Analysis—which allows the user to input a mare with up to 200 potential stallions and obtain Key Ancestor Scores and TrueNicks ratings for the top 50—is run, a number of alluring matings are revealed. To give a flavor of the diversity of stallions identified by the Key Ancestors Report as strong choices for Almundena, we could see ourselves picking from a group headed by Ghostzapper (TrueNicks,SRO), Tiznow (TrueNicks,SRO),Awesome Again (TrueNicks,SRO), More Than Ready (TrueNicks,SRO), Kitten’s Joy(TrueNicks,SRO), and Unbridled’s Song (TrueNicks,SRO).However, what might be a very tough task is rendered much simpler by the TrueNicks Key Ancestors Report, which considers the whole pedigree of the mare at five generations; searches for similarly-bred mares; and determines which ancestors have been positive and negative for those mares, and to what degree.

Those who have been around the Thoroughbred breeding industry for some time know that the rapidity with which sire lines rise and fall is an ever present cause for reflection.

Not long ago Blushing Groom, for example, was a juvenile sensation and a classic winning miler; then a leading sire; and finally a sire of sires of international import with sons such as Rainbow Quest, Nashwan, and Groom Dancer in Europe; Nassipour in Australia; Shy Tom and Candy Stripes in South America; and Rahy, Mt. Livermore, and Runaway Groom and his son Cherokee Run in the U.S. Unfortunately, although these and several other Blushing Groom sons around the world were at least very useful, none had a lot of success as sires of sires, and thus the impact of the Blushing Groom line at the top level waned as fast as it waxed. In the U.S. the current best shot for a branch of Blushing Groom to endure is via champion turf horse Leroidesanimaux—now at stud in Florida—and possibly his Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum!  Brands (gr. I)-winning son Animal Kingdom, who will retire to start his stud career in Australia this summer, but who will almost certainly shuttle to the Northern Hemisphere for 2014.

Prior to 2011 champion 3-year-old Animal Kingdom the most recent Eclipse Award-winning male from the Blushing Groom line was War Pass, the champion 2-year-old colt of 2007. Nothing short of brilliant as a juvenile, War Pass was four-for-four that year, scoring from six to 8 1/2 furlongs on tracks labeled fast, good, and sloppy. The decisive victories for Eclipse honors were a 1 1/2-length victory over Pyro (who would go on to become a grade I winner and millionaire) in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I), and a 4 3/4-length tally over Pyro and subsequent champion sprinter Kodiak Kowboy   in the Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I).

War Pass kicked off his 2008 campaign with a 7 1/2-length win in a mile allowance at Gulfstream Park, but in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) the colt, who had never previously been headed at any call, was bumped early and, after failing to make the lead, checked in seventh, beaten 23 lengths. War Pass returned in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) and, although he didn’t win, emphatically demonstrated that his Tampa effort was just a blip. Tackled early by a “rabbit,” he sped through the first quarter of the nine-furlong contest in :22.46 and the half in :46.07. War Pass had opened up a 2 1/2-length margin at the three-quarters pole and still clung to his lead entering the final furlong. The early pace, however, had taken its inevitable toll, and close home, War Pass was caught by Tale of Ekati, going down by a half length.

The Wood proved to be War Pass’s final race, as he suffered a fracture to his near-fore sesamoid. Retired to Lane’s End Farm, War Pass appeared to have many of the credentials to extend the Blushing Groom line. In addition to his own exceptional race record, he was a son of champion sprinter Cherokee Run, one of the most successful North American-based Blushing Groom-line representatives, and out of the stakes-placed Mr. Prospector mare Vue, also dam of the Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) victress Oath. Sadly, however, War Pass died Christmas Eve 2010 upon his return from a shuttle trip to Australia. He apparently made the trip in good order and was turned out in his paddock at Lane’s End, only to pass away several hours later. A necropsy failed to pinpoint the cause of death.

War Pass left 65 registered foals in his first crop and 61 in his second. Twenty-one of that first crop—now 3-year-olds—have started, 11 winning and three taking black-type events. Of course it’s early days yet, but the first weekend of February did reveal a War Pass colt that may have at least the potential to extend the line. Making his 2013 debut, War Pass’s son Revolutionary produced a remarkable performance, weaving through traffic to score a last-to-first victory in the Withers Stakes (gr. III). Last year Revolutionary made four starts, finishing third in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden at Saratoga, second in a six-furlong maiden at Belmont, and third to the highly-rated Orb in a mile maiden at Aqueduct, before putting it all together in another eight-furlong Aqueduct maiden test where he graduated by 8 1/2 lengths.

An $80,000 Keeneland September yearling and a $235,000 Ocala Breeders’ Sales Company select 2-year-old buy, Revolutionary is now owned by WinStar Farm and conditioned by Todd Pletcher, the owner/breeder combination that took the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver  . Should Revolutionary’s subsequent performances earn him a place alongside Super Saver at WinStar, he will take plenty of pedigree to stud with him. A half brother to the Jerome Handicap (gr. II) second Tafaseel and the Ohio Derby (gr. II) third Ice Road, Revolutionary is out of the A.P. Indy mare Runup the Colors. One of the better fillies of her crop, Runup the Colors won six races—a juvenile score and five consecutively as a sophomore—including the Alabama Stakes (gr. I) and Delaware Oaks, and also took seconds in the Ballerina Handicap and Three Chimneys Spinster Stakes (both gr. I).

Runup the Colors is as well-bred a mare as one could wish to find, as she is a half sister to no fewer than six other stakes winners. These include the Nureyev daughter Flagbird, whose principal victory came in the Premio Presidente della Rebubblica (Ity-I) and who was highweighted older mare on the European Free Handicap at 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 furlongs; the Acorn Stakes and Ashland Stakes (both gr. I) victress and subsequent Broodmare of the Year Prospectors Delite; and Top Acocunt, successful in the King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. II).

A.P. Indy worked well over this family, as the cross has also produced Horse of the Year Mineshaft  , his grade I-winning sister Tomisue’s Delite, and his stakes-winning brother Rock Slide   (all out of Prospectors Delite), and the grade I Ashland Stakes scorer Little Belle and her stakes-winning sister Dubai Dancer (both out of a daughter of Flagbird). Revolutionary’s granddam, Up the Flagpole, won the Delaware Oaks (gr. II). She was by Hoist the Flag out of The Garden Club, a multiple graded-producing daughter of Herbager. The fourth dam, Fashion Verdict, took the Adirondak Stakes and is herself a granddaughter of Striking, one of the legion of important runners and producers sired by War Admiral out of daughters of La Troienne.

Revolutionary, who is TrueNicks-rated A++, is one of only two starters by War Pass out of an A.P. Indy-line mare. The other, Ore Pass (out of a mare by Stephen Got Even  ), broke his maiden as a 2012 juvenile and captured the Frank Whiteley Jr. Stakes at Laurel Park in January from only three lifetime starts. The success of the nick was presaged by the cross of Cherokee Run over A.P. Indy-line mares, which produced two stakes winners, including Zanjero, a graded stakes winner of more than $1.6 million. Also notable is that Runup the Colors is a product of an extended Bold Ruler/Hoist the Flag cross, and that union is reversed in the pedigree of War Pass’ granddam, Harbor Flag, who is by Hoist the Flag, out of a Bold Ruler mare. With regards to stamina, it’s worth noting that, even with a suicidal early pace, War Pass came close to taking the Wood Memorial, and with Runup the Colors owning top-class form at 10 furlongs, Revolutionary should have a good shot at lasting the Kentucky Derby trip—should he be good enough to contend for the classics.

It might be a bit too early to say that “The Winds of Change are Blowing Through the Nation,” but with frequently expressed concerns about the durability and stamina of the U.S. Thoroughbred, there appears to be a move that indicates stallion masters and breeders are willing to at least consider standing or breeding to something other than stretching-out sprinter/miler dirt horses. Given the demographics of the U.S. population, this has meant embracing imports or domestic horses whose form is primarily on turf.

Last year saw two of the world’s great stallion operations add such horses. Coolmore/Ashford introduced Cape Blanco (IRE) (TrueNicks,SRO)—the 2011 Eclipse champion turf horse, but bred and trained in Ireland—to their U.S. roster, and Darley boldly offered the Australian star Lonhro (AUS) (TrueNicks,SRO). If this pair are taken as a litmus test, then U.S. breeders may be more open-minded than many would have suspected. Cape Blanco, who won a pair of group races over seven furlongs at 2, took the 12-furlong Irish Derby (Ire-I) and 10-furlong Irish Champion Stakes (Ire-I) at 3, and scored grade I wins at 10, 11, and 12 furlongs in the U.S. at 4. The proven stamina of the son of Galileo—a horse who by common consent would be considered the world’s leading sire—did not deter breeders in the slightest, and he covered no less than 220 mares.

Lonhro, who was a multiple group I winner at 10 furlongs but was better as a miler, also had his challenges to overcome in terms of breeder perception, primarily unfamiliarity with a male line that features Sir Gaylord as its most recent U.S. runner (Sir Gaylord is back in the fifth generation of the pedigree, as Lonhro descends from that half brother to Secretariat through Epsom Derby winner Sir Ivor; the great New Zealand sire Sir Tristram; that horse’s excellent son Zabeel; and Australian Horse of the Year Octagonal, but is out of a mare by a son of Mr. Prospector). The leading sire in Australia in 2010-2011 and sire of Australia’s most recent juvenile champion, the brilliant Pierro, Lonhro attracted 102 mares at $30,000 in 2012.

Cape Blanco’s sire, Galileo, will have another son at stud in the U.S. this year in Midas Touch (GB)(TrueNicks,SRO), who will stand at War Horse Place for $10,000. Winner over a mile at 2, he won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial (Ire-II) and was second in the Irish Derby (Ire-I), the St. Leger (Eng-I), and Great Voltigeur Stakes (Eng-II) at 3. His dam is a stakes-winning and multiple group-placed daughter of another standout European classic sire, Darshaan. The second dam was also a multiple group winner, and is a half sister to French 2,000 Guineas (gr. I) winner and useful sire Aussie Rules.

Midas Touch’s grandsire, Sadler’s Wells, also has a first year representative in Bullet Train (GB)(TrueNicks,SRO), who goes to Wintergreen Stallion Station for $7,500. He’s out of Kind, a stakes-winning daughter of Danehill, who is best-known as the dam of Frankel, the horse who might just be what bloggers in some circles are inclined to call the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time), making Bullet Train a three-quarter relative to Juddmonte’s phenomenon. Bullet Train was a winner over a mile on his only start at 2, and took the Totesport.com Derby Trial (Eng-III) at 3. Subsequently he spent his 4- and 5-year-old seasons in the service of his superstar sibling, and his sterling pacemaking efforts played a major part in the Frankel success story.

Of course we should note that the Sadler’s Wells line has already developed a branch all of its own through El Prado, who, if not a stayer, was a turf runner, and who is already represented byMedaglia d’Oro (TrueNicks,SRO), Kitten’s Joy (TrueNicks,SRO), and Artie Schiller(TrueNicks,SRO) as sires of grade I winners. El Prado’s son Paddy O’Prado (TrueNicks,SRO), a grade I winner over 10 furlongs on the turf and also second in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on all-weather and third in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) on dirt, kicked off his stud career at Spendthrift last year with a book of 142 mares.

The other stamina sire line that seems to be making inroads is that of Roberto, particularly through Dynaformer (who became one of the world’s leading sires, despite winning over 12 furlongs on turf and starting his stud career in the bargain basement). Darby Dan—where Roberto was bred and raised, and where he stood his stud career—were actually the pioneers regarding re-importing the line, reverse shuttling the group I-winning miler All American (AUS) (TrueNicks,SRO), a son of Red Ransom. In an earlier piece on this blog we’ve covered Dynaformer’s sons Americain and Lentenor, who are both retiring to Calumet for 2013 (Americain reverse shuttling from Australia).

If you are going to go for a stamina source, Americain is about as good as it gets: rated No. 1 on the World Thoroughbred Rankings in 2011, although he also won first time out as a 2-year-old, and had top-class form at 10 and 12 furlongs. Lentenor, a brother to Barbaro, was also a turf horse, but more a miler than a stayer, winning the Kitten’s Joy Stakes at 8 1/2 furlongs, and setting a course record for the same distance. His dam, La Ville Rouge, was a rare item: a Carson City that liked to go long on the lawn. We should note that Calumet is now guided by Brad Kelley, who purchased the majority of another staying horse, champion turf male English Channel (TrueNicks,SRO). Kelley supported English Channel strongly in his early years at stud, and was rewarded when the son of Smart Strike (TrueNicks,SRO) took high-rank among the 2012 second season sires, represented by nine stakes winners from his first crop of 3-year-olds. There is no doubt that Kelley will ensure that Americain and Lentenor get similar opportunities.

A third Dynaformer retiring for 2013 is Brilliant Speed (TrueNicks,SRO), who goes to Three Chimneys for $10,000. A winner on the turf at 2, he took the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on the all-weather, and the Saranac Stakes (gr. IIIT) on the turf at 3, when he was also placed in five other stakes races, including a close second in the Jamaica Handicap (gr. IT), and thirds in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and Breeders’ Cup Turf (gr. IT). He added thirds in two more grade I events this year. There is a lot more speed on the distaff side of the pedigree, as the dam, a Gone West half sister to Canadian champion and multiple stakes winner Handpainted, is out of the speedy Deputy Minister mare Daijin, a sister to Touch Gold (TrueNicks,SRO), who despite winning the Belmont Stakes has sired some good sprinter/milers.

Still on the Dynaformer front, we shouldn’t overlook Temple City (TrueNicks,SRO), who is by Dynaformer out of a Danzig half sister to Malibu Moon (TrueNicks,SRO), and broke a course record when winning the 12-furlong Cougar II Handicap (gr. III). He retired to Spendthrift in 2011 and has covered over 100 mares in each of his first two seasons.

There is another Dynaformer among the ranks of the U.S. turf horses in three-time grade I winnerPoint of Entry. Adena Springs principal Frank Stronach purchased a majority interest in the horse last month, so it seems likely that he will retire to Kentucky at the conclusion of his racing career.

Of course we also anticipate 2014 seeing the retirement of the 2011 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) victor,Animal Kingdom (TrueNicks), by the Brazilian-bred Blushing Groom line horse Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) (TrueNicks), out of a German-bred staying mare. He’s going to stand his Southern Hemisphere seasons at Arrowfield, but is undeclared as far as the Northern Hemisphere is concerned.

Other new stallions who excelled on the turf include multiple grade I winner Get Stormy(TrueNicks,SRO), who retires to Crestwood Farm; and Canadian champion turf horse Musketier (GER) (TrueNicks,SRO), who begins his stud career at Adena Springs Canada.

We’re not quite at the stage of the cycle of European invasions that saw Bull Dog, Sir Gallahad III, Blenheim II, Mahmoud, Nasrullah, Royal Charger, and Khaled, or later, repatriated European-raced U.S. breds, such as Sir Ivor, Nijinsky II, The Minstrel, Lyphard, Green Dancer, Riverman, and Nureyev (as well as European-bred Caro), to name a few that come to mind, but we do think the chances of a foreign import or U.S. raced turf horse becoming a significant sire are much higher than they were a few years ago.