Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues

Will French Voting Test Franco-German Ties?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Nicolas Véron assesses the contest between President Nicolas Sarkozy and the socialist Francois Hollande, and the implications for European integration.

Taking the Measure of China's Future Leader

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Nicholas R. Lardy says the United States will use the visit of Vice President Xi Jin Ping to assess where US-China relations are going in the next decade.

Is Europe's Shadow Lifting from the United States?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard argues that the latest progress in solving the euro debt crisis is easing the threat of damage to the fragile US recovery.

Economic Crisis in Egypt: Enter the IMF

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Mohsin S. Khan discusses why Egypt has reluctantly turned to the International Monetary Fund for help and the outlook for negotiations to rescue its economy.

Why Taxing Companies to Discourage Outsourcing Won't Work

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Gary Clyde Hufbauer says President Obama's proposal to tax firms that outsource jobs will backfire and compel companies to sell off their foreign operations.

Updated Misery Index: Good News for the White House?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Gary Clyde Hufbauer discusses how the Peterson Institute's augmented misery index of economic indicators shows an improvement in the national outlook.

Europe vs. the Rest of the World

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Edwin M. Truman explains why the proposal for an IMF bailout fund for Europe has pitted a dithering European leadership against the United States and the rest of the world.

Making an Example of Greece

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard argues that Greece's balking at reforms sets such a bad example for Europe that contagion from a Greek default might be containable.

Ratcheting Up Economic Pressure on Iran II

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Mohsin S. Khan explains how sanctions on Iran's central Bank could lead to difficulties for Iran's imports and an effective embargo on its oil exports.

Greece Back on the Front Burner

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Nicolas Véron says new tensions have arisen over creditors balking at Greek debt restructuring and Greece itself falling short of its commitment to reform.

Does China Seek a Global Role for Its Currency?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 6 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Morris Goldstein discusses the China-Japan currency pact signed in December—and why Beijing faces obstacles in its bid to elevate the global role of the yuan.

Ratcheting Up Economic Pressure on Iran

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 6 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Jeffrey J. Schott says a new law calling for sanctions on Iran's central bank and new European curbs on oil purchases are raising the stakes in the West's confrontation with Tehran.

North Korea's Uncertain Transition: Time for a Conciliatory Gesture?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Marcus Noland discusses the downside risks after the death of Kim Jong-il and suggests that a possible agreement to increase food aid would be appropriate.

New Tensions with China on Trade

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Jeffrey J. Schott says China is sending a message of displeasure on commercial trade issues that is as much political as it is trade-related.

Why Do Markets Disdain Euro Summit Accords?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Nicolas Véron says the markets doubt the strength of Europe's economic prospects, its banking system, its fiscal discipline accords, and its bailout mechanisms.

Outlook in Egypt: Shariah, Populism, or Reform?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Mohsin S. Khan assesses the economic implications of the recent parliamentary election victory scored by the Islamic parties in Egypt.

Incremental Progress in Europe, but Is That Enough?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 9 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Nicolas Véron says that it is unclear if the markets will be patient enough for the reforms discussed in Europe to be implemented in the months ahead.

Is the 'Reset' with Russia on the Rocks?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 8 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Anders Åslund says the recent political setbacks for Prime Minister Putin have poisoned US relations and jeopardized prospects for improved trade relations.

European Turmoil: How Big a Threat to the United States?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 7 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Edwin M. Truman explains why the US recovery is endangered by Europe and what Treasury Secretary Geithner and the Europeans might do about it.

New Trade Status for Russia Faces Delay

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Mon, 5 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Gary Clyde Hufbauer says the issue of Russian human rights is stoking Congressional demands for sanctions, which could delay approval of PNTR for Russia.

Central Banks to the Rescue?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 1 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Joseph E. Gagnon evaluates the impact of an increasingly interventionist European Central Bank and its coordinated efforts with the US Federal Reserve and other central banks.

Is Obama's Pivot to Asia Aimed at Countering China?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Nicholas R. Lardy says that Obama's focus on Asia is not directed at China but rather at correcting American indifference to Asian concerns in recent years.

China's Currency: Modest Appreciation but Still Undervalued

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

William R. Cline explains the implications of China's undervalued renminbi, the overvalued dollar, and a euro that could face depreciation in the future.

A Breakthrough on Trade with Russia

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Anders Åslund assesses the impending Russian accession to the World Trade Organization—and the chances the United States will fail to take advantage of it.

Progress on Asia Pacific Trade

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Jeffrey J. Schott reports that President Obama and leaders of the Asia Pacific region made progress on an economic agreement at their Honolulu summit.

New Regimes, Old Problems, in Italy and Greece

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Nicolas Véron says that despite the changes in Athens and Rome, Europe has much more to do to address its underlying weaknesses.

The European Central Bank: Watch What They Do, Not What They Say

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard assesses the ECB's role in pressing new governments on Greece and Italy and the prospects for more volatility in the markets.

Moderately Positive News on the Economy

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Michael Mussa finds the latest job numbers, along with upward revisions from the previous two months, show that moderate US growth is under way.

A New Consensus at the Fed?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Joseph E. Gagnon says the US Federal Reserve's latest actions indicate that Chairman Bernanke may have quelled dissent over quantitative easing while calling on Congress to act on growth.

China, the United States, and Europe at Cannes

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Arvind Subramanian says that as the United States and Europe stumble, China will play a lead role at the G-20 Summit and face questions about how it will wield its power.

Misbegotten Entry, but No Exit for Greece

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

John Williamson suggests that to save the euro area, Greece must deflate but that Germany and some other countries should accept a bit more inflation.

Putin's Return to Economic Issues

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 15:35:00 -0400

Anders Åslund assesses the economic outlook in Russia now that Vladimir Putin has signaled his intention to return to the presidency.

Debt Restructuring Offers Greece a 'Fighting Chance'

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard explains the implications of the negotiations in Europe that could lead to an enforced write-down of privately held Greek debt.

Europe: Headed Right but Not Fast Enough

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 10:30:00 -0400

Edwin M. Truman analyzes four aspects of the crisis: Greece's prospects, the threat of contagion, the weak banking system, and the need for a new fiscal union.

Is China 'Dumping' Solar Panels in the United States?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 17:00:00 -0400

Gary Clyde Hufbauer analyzes the lawsuit against China by US solar panel makers but argues that the energy sector enjoys subsidies across the board in every country.

Would a 'Repatriation Tax Holiday' Work?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Gary Clyde Hufbauer says the widely debated proposal to bring investment home from overseas might be a step in the right direction.

Europe Gets Closer to Recapitalizing Banks

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Nicolas Véron welcomes the move toward recognition of the weakness of European banks but questions whether leaders are moving quickly enough.

Political and Economic Crisis in Ukraine

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Anders Åslund says the jailing of Yulia Tymoshenko is indicative of a range of bad political and economic decisions deepening Ukraine's isolation.

Legislation to Sanction China: Will It Work?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 15:15:00 -0400

Nicholas R. Lardy assesses the prospects and potential impact of legislation to impose duties on Chinese goods if it does not let its currency appreciate.

A Turning Point on Trade?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 15:30:00 -0400

Jeffrey J. Schott sees the expected approval of the Korea, Colombia, and Panama trade agreements as a boost to the economy and a harbinger of more trade discussions.

Can Greece Avoid Default?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0500

William R. Cline argues that, contrary to the demands by some that Greece radically restructure its debts, the country can take other steps to reach fiscal sustainability.

The Coming "Financial Repression"

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Carmen M. Reinhart explains that debt crises lead to "financial repression," which can take different forms, with some alternatives having better outcomes than others.

Toward a Centralized European Banking Authority

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Nicolas Véron argues that as Europe moves toward fiscal as well as monetary union, a federal banking authority should be created to force banks to install buffers against crises.

The Fed Tries Again with a New "Twist"

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Joseph E. Gagnon explains the Fed's latest effort to employ monetary stimulus but predicts it will not be enough to revive the mortgage market.

President Obama's Jobs Initiative: Will It Work? (II)

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Howard F. Rosen doubts that the Obama jobs program, if enacted, will address the immediate problem of Americans giving up on trying to find work.

President Obama's Jobs Initiative: Will It Work? (I)

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0500

I. M. Destler says that at least some of the Obama program is likely to be enacted, but the impact on the economy is likely to be modest.

Discord at the Fed over Monetary Policy

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Joseph E. Gagnon says that the latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) show three camps emerging: hawks, doves, and centrists, with Chairman Bernanke in the middle.

ExxonMobil and Russia's Rosneft: Unlikely Partners?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Anders Åslund says that Russia needs help from the West to explore oil in the Arctic, and that the US "reset" of ties with Moscow paved the way for the deal.

Bumpy Transition to New Leadership in China

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Nicholas R. Lardy assesses Vice President Biden's trip to China in August and the lingering sources of disagreement over currency and other issues.

What Should the Fed Do?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Joseph E. Gagnon and Michael Mussa discuss the latest steps by the Federal Reserve to help the economy—and what tools might be used if things get worse.

Is There Such a Thing as a Risk-Free Asset?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Nicolas Véron discusses the global market turmoil, the spread of concern to France, and the disquieting impact in Europe of the US credit rating downgrade.

A Weak Deal in Washington but Hypocrisy Abroad

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0500

C. Fred Bergsten analyzes the United States' brush with default, the weakness of the deficit-reduction deal, the uneasy markets—and the hypocritical hand-wringing by China.

Unemployment Decline Masks Deeper Problems

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Howard F. Rosen says that while private sector jobs are up, more Americans have stopped looking for work, and government jobs have dropped dramatically.

Averting Default, the United States Faces More Obstacles

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Michael Mussa assesses the economic outlook in light of recent mixed developments, from the avoidance of default to uncertainty over growth prospects.

Is a Downgrade Still Justified for the United States?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Carmen M. Reinhart says that despite an averted default and pledges to cut spending, the United States' problems are so large that its AAA credit rating remains in doubt.

The 'Manageable' Cost of Addressing Climate Change

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

William R. Cline discusses his new book showing that the cost of reducing carbon dioxide emissions in line with the 2009 Copenhagen Accord is far from prohibitive.

The Debt Limit Debate Is a Distraction

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Simon Johnson says the debate on the debt limit overlooks the need to address long-term healthcare and pension costs and to raise revenue, perhaps through a value-added tax (VAT).

Korea FTA: A Done Deal but Not Right Away?

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Jeffrey J. Schott says the Korea, Panama, and Colombia trade agreements will probably be approved in the fall, but Korea's deal with Europe is stealing the United States' thunder.

The Default Debate, Markets, and Selling Gold

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Joseph E. Gagnon assesses some unusual options the US Treasury might choose, including gold sales, if there is no agreement to raise the debt ceiling.

Mixed Results from the European Bank "Stress Tests"

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Nicolas Véron says stress tests provide useful information about European banks—and pose a challenge to governments over their need to recapitalize.

Debt Limit Accord Should Include Budget Issues

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Edwin M. Truman argues that markets are concerned not only about a failure to raise the debt limit but also a failure to address US budget problems.

Dire Consequences from Failing to Raise the Debt Limit

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Michael Mussa says that credit rating agencies would downgrade US debt if any scheduled federal payments are missed, not simply interest payments on the debt.

Disappointing Job Growth but the Economy Is Still Growing

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Michael Mussa, assessing the latest poor job numbers, says that too much immediate fiscal consolidation could make things worse.

In Egypt, Politics Trumps Economic Reforms

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Mohsin S. Khan describes Egypt's refusal of aid from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund as a setback for economic reform in the post-Mubarak era.

Perils of Trade and Trade Adjustment

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Howard Rosen untangles the latest battles over pending free trade agreements, aid for displaced workers, and the politics holding up agreement in Washington.

Christine Lagarde's Steep Learning Curve

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Nicolas Véron assesses the diplomatic skills of Christine Lagarde, the newly chosen managing director of the International Monetary Fund.

Salvaging Trade--and Trade Adjustment Assistance

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Howard Rosen assesses the prospects of Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) getting approved in Congress and explains why the criticism of the program is outmoded and misplaced.

Bright Spot on Trade with Canada

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Gary Clyde Hufbauer explains how President Obama and Prime Minister Harper have brought progress on air transport and trucking to ease conditions at the border.

China's Currency Continues to be Undervalued

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 8 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0500

William R. Cline discusses his latest study with John Williamson on fundamental equilibrium exchanges rates (FEERs) and its conclusion that the renminbi remains undervalued.

Greece's Woes: The Virtue of "Kicking the Can Down the Road"

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 8 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Nicolas Véron and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard explain why playing for time before requiring Greece to restructure its debts may be the best option for Europe.

Turmoil in Belarus Is a Headache for Russia

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 17:00:00 -0500

Anders Åslund says that President Alexander Lukashenko's string may be running out as Belarus seeks Russian help in its financial crisis.

Fiscal Consolidation: Its Impact on the Economy

comments@petersoninstitute.org (Peterson Institute for International Economics) — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 16:00:00 -0500

Michael Mussa says that federal and local budget cuts and tax increases may slow economic growth next year, but his forecast on unemployment is for it to dip below 8 percent in 2012.