Peterson Institute Press

Nicholas Lardy Forecasts the Chinese Reaction to Obama's First China Visit

Obama's first trip to China is just days away, but China expert Lardy and coauthor of China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities declares that it's not a maiden summit. Lardy cites the development of a more symmetrical relationship between the US and China, due in part to China's increased self-confidence over financial and economic issues.

Building on his work in China's Rise, Lardy outlines key economic concerns for both parties in what promises to be a successful and constructive meeting.

Listen to the Peterson Perspectives Interview.
Find Out More about China's Rise.

Bergsten Lays Outs Blueprint for New Global Economic Order

At a recent keynote speech at the Global Human Resource Forum in Seoul, Korea, PIIE director C. Fred Bergsten takes stock of the current international economic order and emphasizes reconstructing the outdated structure of the international economic system—which was engineered sixty years ago.

Bergsten, coauthor of China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities, maps out key components of a new blueprint for the 21st century with a rapidly changing global order. Ultimately, he stresses that financial regulation is the most urgent requirement in a post-crisis environment.

Read the Full Speech: " A Blueprint for Global Leadership in the 21st Century."
Read a Sample Chapter from China's Rise: "China's Challenge to the Global Economic Order."

Wall Street Journal Notes Author Tarullo's Transformative Efforts at Fed

Amid new benchmarks for establishing bankers' pay, recent Fed appointee and author Daniel Tarullo brings his "encyclopedic knowledge of bank rules" to a regulatory system that demands change. The Wall Street Journal takes note of his book Banking on Basel and highlights the recommendations Tarullo outlines for bank supervision.

The WSJ article charts his tangible influence and observes that "Mr. Tarullo is emerging as one of a handful of new Obama-appointed regulators who [is] changing the tone and substance of business regulation in areas from derivatives to drugs."

Find out More about Banking on Basel.
Read the Article.

One Year Later: At Stanford, Author Analyzes the Global Economic Crisis for both China and the U.S.

On October 8 at Stanford University, Nicholas Lardy—coauthor of China's Rise—made a conference appearance to analyze the evolution of the global economic crisis after a year. He, along with other esteemed panelists, helped break down the comparative differences between the US and Chinese economic stimulus plans. Amid debate about China's current leverage over the United States, he drew on his work in China's Rise and forecasted the prospects for stimulus-assisted recovery and the future of the countries' economic relationship.

Find out More about China's Rise.
Read a Sample Chapter: "Sustaining Economic Growth in China."

The Washington Post Features North Korean Study

In advance of their forthcoming publication Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea, experts Marc Noland and Stephan Haggard expose North Korea's common use of extortion in their most recent Working Paper. Their analysis of surveys with North Korean refugees reveals overwhelming disaffection with the North Korean regime.

In an extensive article, The Washington Post cites this study as "the first large-scale attempt by social scientists to paint a picture of how repression in North Korea has changed in recent years to adapt to the collapse of the country's command-style economy and the rise of a scruffy network of private markets."

Learn More about the Forthcoming Book.

NewsHour Author Appearance: Kirkegaard Forecasts Slow Job Recovery

On October 2nd, Jacob Kirkegaard, author of The Accelerating Decline in America's High-Skilled Workforce: Implications for Immigration Policy, appeared on the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer.

Against the backdrop of September's job loss report, Kirkegaard forecasted the potential for sustainable job recovery in the future. Drawing on his well-researched book, he underlined current trends within the labor market that stall job recovery, most notably, the relationship between skill depreciation and long-term unemployment.

Watch Video of NewsHour Program.

The Russia Balance Sheet Authors Speak with Key Russian Leader at the Russian Embassy

This event—a result of a partnership among PIIE, CSIS, and the Russian Embassy—enabled authors Anders Åslund and Andrew Kuchins to share their unique insight about the future of US-Russia relations. Together with PIIE director C. Fred Bergsten, the authors' discussion with Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov draws upon the recommendations outlined in their authoritative text The Russia Balance Sheet.

View Event Video.

In the News: FT Reporter Cites Goldstein and Lardy Book

In a recent column about China's efforts to rebalance its economy, Financial Times reporter Martin Wolf calls The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy "an excellent study."

Read the article online.

C-SPAN Author Appearance: Nicholas Lardy Discusses the US-China Trade Dispute

Nicholas R. Lardy, coauthor of China's Rise, appeared on C-SPAN's Washington Journal on September 15. He spoke about the widening trade dispute between the United States and China and forecasted China's willingness to work on key economic issues at the upcoming G-20 Summit in Pittsburgh. Lardy also handily explained how President Obama's decision to impose stiffer tariffs on Chinese tires will affect the US economy, echoing similar themes from C. Fred Bergsten's discussion with radio host Diane Rehm.

See his appearance: http://www.c-spanarchives.org/program/288904-3

Diane Rehm Show Author Appearance: Author C. Fred Bergsten Discusses the US Tariff on Chinese Tires

Diane Rehm speaks with C. Fred Bergsten—coauthor of China's Rise—about US protectionist policies with China, particularly the recent tariff on Chinese tires. During the broadcast, they explore how the tariff not only affects future US-China trade relations but also influences everyday tire consumers and retailers in the United States.

Listen to The Diane Rehm Show Episode: http://wamu.org/programs/dr/09/09/16.php#26712

New Book: Capitalizing on the Morocco-US Free Trade Agreement: A Road Map for Success

This study assesses the US-Morocco free trade agreement (FTA) and identifies shortcomings in the implementation of the US-Morocco FTA, provide policy recommendations for better leveraging the FTA, and suggest ways for Morocco to take better advantage of its cooperation agreements with the European Union. The study consists of four components. First, the study uses statistical and modeling work to compare the experience of the US-Morocco FTA with the experiences of US FTAs with Chile and Jordan. Second, the study provides a qualitative analysis of the US FTAs with Chile and Jordan to suggest best practices for Morocco to get the most out of its FTA with the United States. Third, the study looks at Morocco's trade agreements with the European Union in order to further guide the implementation of the US-Morocco FTA in light of the successes and failures of EU-Morocco trade relations. Fourth, the study identifies shortcomings in the implementation of the US-Morocco FTA and in EU agreements with Morocco, with a focus on agriculture, textiles, services, and intellectual property. Finally, the study provides recommendations on reforms the Moroccan government could implement in order to take greater advantage of the US FTA and EU agreements, both at the border and behind the border, and considers areas of the US FTA that could benefit from renegotiation, as well as the direction new provisions should take.

Capitalizing on the Morocco-US Free Trade Agreement: A Road Map for Success , by Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Claire Brunel, is now available for preview and purchase online.

Foreign Affairs Reviews The Russia Balance Sheet

The most recent issue of Foreign Affairs magazine reviews The Russia Balance Sheet (978-0-88132-424-2) and calls the book a "fruitful collaboration" and "a fine synthesis."

Read the review at Foreign Affairs.

Blog Calls CFIUS "Essential Reading" for Law and Business Professionals

A recent blog post outlines why Three Threats: An Analytical Framework for the CFIUS Process is pertinent to the law and business community. According to USA Inbound Acquisitions and Investment Blog, professionals dealing with mergers and acquisitions should add this book to their reading list: "For professionals whose work involves inbound M&A, this publication is essential reading."

Read the full blog post

New Book: Three Threats: An Analytical Framework for the CFIUS Process

Under what conditions might a foreign acquisition of a US company constitute a genuine national security threat to the United States? What kinds of risks and threats should analysts and strategists on the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), as well as their congressional overseers, be prepared to identify and deal with? This study looks at three types of foreign acquisitions of US companies that may pose a legitimate national security threat. The first is a proposed acquisition that would make the United States dependent on a foreign-controlled supplier of goods or services that are crucial to the functioning of the US economy and that this supplier might delay, deny, or place conditions on the provision of those goods or services. The second is a proposed acquisition that would allow the transfer to a foreign-controlled entity of technology or other expertise that might be deployed in a manner harmful to US national interests. The third potential threat is a proposed acquisition that would provide the capability to infiltrate, conduct surveillance on, or sabotage the provision of goods or services that are crucial to the functioning of the US economy. This study analyzes these threats in detail and considers what criteria are needed for a proposed foreign acquisition to be considered threatening. Ultimately, the vast majority of foreign acquisitions pose no credible threat to national security on these grounds.

Three Threats: An Analytical Framework for the CFIUS Process, by Theodore H. Moran, is now available for preview and purchase online.

New Book: The Euro at Ten: The Next Global Currency?

Over the first ten years of its existence, the euro has proved to be more than a powerful symbol of collective identity.It has provided price stability to previously inflation-prone countries; it has offered a shelter against currency crises; and it has by and large been conducive to budgetary discipline. The eurozone has attracted five new members in addition to the initial eleven, and many countries in Europe wish to adopt it. The euro has also been successful internationally. Even though research presented in this volume confirms that it has not rivaled the dollar's world currency status, it has certainly become a strong regional currency in Europe and the Mediterranean region. Some countries in the region have de facto adopted it, several peg to it, and many have become at least partially euroized.

However, the euro's impressive first decade is likely to be followed by a much more difficult period. The present financial crisis is posing at least two important challenges: real economic adjustment within the euro area and maintenance of fiscal and financial stability without a central government authority capable of taking appropriate financial and fiscal decisions in difficult times. The papers and remarks in this volume demonstrate that the euro has proved to be attractive as a fair weather currency for countries and investors well beyond its borders. But it remains to be seen whether it is equipped to also succeed as a stormy weather currency.

The Euro at Ten: The Next Global Currency?, edited by Jean Pisani-Ferry and Adam S. Posen, is now available for preview and purchase online.

Event | Release of New Book: The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy

The Institute released its latest book The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy by Senior Fellows Morris Goldstein and Nicholas R. Lardy at an event held July 21, 2009. In attendance were press members such as Tom Gjelten from NPR, as well as The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Business Week, and the Washington Times. The release comes as the United States prepares for the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, which will be held in Washington next week. The authors assess the evolution of China's current account position into by far the largest surplus in the world, the country's efforts to achieve constructive adjustment through both currency and broader economic policy initiatives, and the implications for the world economy.

New Book: The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy

Over the past five years China has emerged as the world's largest global surplus economy; indeed by 2007–08 the size of its surplus relative to its GDP was of a magnitude unprecedented for a large trading economy. This development is especially surprising since in the first twenty-five years of economic reform China's trade and current account surpluses were quite small by East Asian standards, averaging less than 2 percent of GDP.

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the key economic challenges facing the Chinese authorities in light of the still undervalued exchange rate, the large build-up of foreign exchange reserves, and more recently the sharp decline in economic growth. It analyzes the implications of China's exchange-rate policy for the effectiveness of monetary policy, the transition to a commercially oriented banking system, the evolving structure of output and demand, and the risk of protectionism abroad. The policy-options portion of the study takes account of the significant real effective appreciation of the renminbi over the past fifteen months and will contrast the pros and cons of a "stay-the-course" policy with that of a bolder, "three-stage" approach that would seek to maintain recent progress and to reduce even further the undervaluation of the renminbi.

New Book: The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy, by Morris Goldstein and Nicholas R. Lardy, is now available for preview and purchase online.

Marcus Noland Assesses North Korea's Future

Today, a number of sources are reporting that Kim Jong-Il has pancreatic cancer. Given Kim Jong-Il's rapidly deteriorating health, North Korea may be on the cusp of a transition in leadership. In his book Korea After Kim Jong-il, Marcus Noland analyzes how Kim Jong-Il's death could affect the reorientation of North Korean politics and North Korea's existence as a sovereign state. To that end, Noland considers the all-important question of what a new leader means not only for North Korea but also for South Korea and the rest of the world.

Choice Magazine applauds Global Warming and the World Trading System

The September issue of Choice Magazine applauds Global Warming and the World Trading System for its thorough investigation of the marriage between trade and environmental policies: "This volume is well researched and well written. . . . Highly recommended." In light of the House's recent approval of the climate change bill and ongoing debate over its potential impact on trade, this particularly timely title analyzes the legal ramifications of global warming.

Noland on FOXBusiness.com: Are Sanctions in North Korea Effective?

North Korea expert Marcus Noland addresses the seriousness of North Korea's latest missile tests, why new UN sanctions in the financial sector may prove more effective than trade sanctions, and what to expect from a possible successor to Kim Jong-il.

Marcus Noland is the author of the forthcoming book Exploiting Refugee Insights into North Korea .

National Journal cites The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy

National Journal columnist Bruce Stokes touts Morris Goldstein and Nicholas Lardy's authoritative analysis of China's efforts to restructure its economy. He cites their forthcoming book The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy and uses data from it to outline measures for China's transformation into a consumer-driven economy.

National Journal subscribers can log on to view the June 27th article online (login required): http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/nj_20090627_9757.php