But all eyes have been on the seemingly much improved Kendrick, who has been arriving early every day to emulate new teammate Roy Halladay. The confidence issues that arose last season seem to be long gone. Much of the that can be attributed to the development of Kendrick’s secondary pitches, which needed more fine tuning. His changeup and cutter are now pitches he can throw in any count, which was on display Monday.

Kendrick insists that he would be happy in any role, as long it is with the big league club:

“If it’s the fifth man, great. If it’s the bullpen, I’m happy with that, too,” he said. “I just want to have a good year, a good full season in the big leagues and go from there. If it’s the fifth guy or in the bullpen, so be it. But I’ll be happy, wherever it’s at.”

Unfortunately for Kendrick, the Phillies are expected to go with Moyer if he is healthy when camp brakes. The ageless lefty has been a consistent performer for many of his 23 years in the big leagues, which weighs into pitching coach Rich Dubee’s decision making:

“I don’t know if Jamie has to dazzle” to win the fifth starter’s job, Dubee said Monday. “He’ll probably be judged a little differently. If the fifth job were open and two kids were going for it, best guy gets it. But Jamie Moyer has a pretty good track record. You have to give that some weight.”

Even if Kendrick doesn’t make crack the rotation, he has a good shot to make the bullpen out of camp. J.C. Romero likely will miss the first week or two, and Brad Lidge is still questionable for the start of the season. He could contribute more than Moyer out of the ‘pen, but it could also halt his progress as a starter. Either way I think he would be the first guy called upon to replace a player due to injury or ineffectiveness.

So is there anything Kendrick can do to make the rotation, save an injury to Moyer or another starter? It’s hard to say exactly. Many believe the Phils are committed to a healthy Moyer, given his exorbitant salary and track record. Others find it hard to send out a 47-year old instead of a promising 25-year old. Fortunately for the Phillies, both guys are pitching well and have a chance to contribute to the 2010 squad. Who will be where? TBD…

While Ibanez put up respectable fantasy numbers in Seattle, he never was considered a top-tier outfielder. When he joined the potent Phillies offense, some believed he could be a big sleeper heading into ‘09. Those people were proven correct as Ibanez was a top five fantasy performer over the first 2+ months of the season. His performance leveled off after he hit the DL with an oblique injury, but he managed to contribute some key hits in the postseason.

Ibanez will turn 38 in June, but you wouldn’t know it. The guy trains as hard as anybody, and even spends hours upon hours in a hyperbaric chamber. Ken Rosenthal wrote a few years back about his “intense” training habits, which include jiujitsu and yoga. So some fantasy managers may look at his age and the sub par second half last year and hesitate on drafting Ibanez, which could lower his draft stock. What can we expect from the 38-year old entering his 15th big league season?

Three-Year Stats (5×5 Roto Categories):

2007: .291 AVG, 80 R’s, 21 HR’s, 105 RBI’s, 0 SB’s

2008: .293 AVG, 85 R’s, 23 HR’s, 110 RBI’s, 2 SB’s

2009: .272 AVG, 93 R’s, 34 HR’s, 93 RBI’s, 4 SB’s

2010 Predictions:

Bill James: .270 AVG, 86 R’s, 26 HR’s, 96RBI’s, 3 SB’s

CHONE: .271 AVG, 78 R’s, 27 HR’s, 96 RBI’s, 1 SB

Marcel: .273 AVG, 73 R’s, 22 HR’s, 83 RBI’s, 3 SB’s

Let’s Talk…

The projection systems are all expecting a return to reality in the home run department. Ibanez has hit over 24 home runs just twice in his career, so they may be on to something. But when you look at the ballpark he plays in and the offense around him, would it really surprise you to see him surpass 30 again? Also sticking out to me is the low average projections. His .272 BA last season was his lowest since becoming a full-time player and can be somewhat attributed to playing hurt later in the year. A career .285 hitter, Ibanez will likely outperform the projections there.

Right now at MockDraftCentral, Ibanez is sporting an ADP of 95.24. His Yahoo rank is 105, and he went 109th overall in the latest ESPN “experts” mock draft. That haves him going around the 10th-11th round in a 10-team draft. It also puts him out of the top 25 outfielders taken, in a group with the likes of Hunter Pence, Carlos Quentin, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Beltran. I would easily take Ibanez out of that small group, and would consider him a bargain heading into 2010. Let’s take a closer look using the standard 5×5 roto setup.

AVG: I mentioned before how the .272 average posted by Ibanez last season should improve. His .290 BABIP was the lowest since becoming a full-time player, and his career BABIP is .306. A return to reality in that department will push Ibanez back toward his career average of .285. While he may not have his 6th career .290+ season coming, there is no reason to be scared away because of his so-so ‘09 average. Draft with confidence and expect an average around .285.

…More after the jump

Runs: In just 500 at-bats, Ibanez crossed home plate 93 times, good enough for 15th-best in the NL. A good amount of those came when he was batting fifth in front of Jayson Werth. When Ibanez returned from injury last season it was in the six hole, hitting in front of Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz. That obviously limited his run-scoring potential a bit. This year, Ibanez should stay batting sixth behind Werth but will likely be backed up by Shane Victorino. You can score runs from any spot in the Phillies offense, but the farther down the order you go limits the ceiling. I would expect a healthy Ibanez to score 90 runs this season, not bad for a guy batting sixth.

Home Runs: The career high 34 home runs could have been even more if Ibanez never suffered an oblique injury. He was leading the MLB in long balls all the way through late-May. It was clear the power stroke which produced just 44 total home runs from ‘07-’08 evolved in Philadelphia. His HR/FB% of 22.1 was by far a career high, and many would argue that a correction is in order there. But his overall FB% of 41.7 was not out of the ordinary, so maybe Citizens Bank Park just played that much smaller than Safeco. Don’t go wild thinking Ibanez will put up monster HR numbers, but you can expect at least 26 and hope for 35. Not bad from the 31st-ish ranked OF.

RBI’s: Ibanez was coming off three-straight 100-rbi seasons before joining the Phillies. While he fell short in ‘09 (93 rbi’s), he had 135 less at-bats than ‘08 (110 rbi’s). The guy is a career ribbie machine and is hitting behind Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jayson Werth. If he gets 600+ at-bats, there is no way he falls short of the 100-rbi plateau. If you are in need of some power numbers in the middle rounds and see Ibanez, you have to consider him. Plug him in everyday and he should give you around 105 knocks.

SB’s: Eight stolen bases in the past four years. You guessed it, Ibanez will only contribute in four categories. But he should give you 3-5 surprise steals with Davey Lopes at first base.

Analysis:

In all the rankings Ibanez is being drafted in the same area as he was prior to ‘09, around the 10th-11th round. He proved an incredible bargain for fantasy owners last season, and could provide similar value this year. Ibanez is more than capable of putting up very respectable numbers in four categories, which is great coming from your third or fourth outfielder. Many will be scared off by age and second-half struggles, potentially dropping Ibanez into the 12th and 13th rounds. There, he is a no-brainer pick. Earlier in the draft, he should be given heavy consideration if your team is in need of some cheap power with above-average potential in both batting average and runs.

Positional Rank: 25

Overall Rank: 86

PhillyPhanatic Prediction: .285 AVG, 90 Runs, 28 Home Runs, 105 RBI’s, 3 SB’s

In addition to working out at the Athletes Compound in Tampa, Howard has continued his relationship with third-base coach Sam Perlozzo, who works with him on all things defense. We saw the big man make a huge jump defensively from ‘08 to ‘09, but there is still some definite room for improvement, specifically in the throwing department. A majority of Howard’s errors are his attempts to throw to second base, which often sail wide of the target. Hopefully he makes some strides in that facet of his game.

His offensive ability, however, is not in question. Howard led the MLB with 141 rbi’s and finished third with 45 home runs. The league’s top slugger over the past four seasons is ready to mash again, so where does he rank from a fantasy perspective? Let’s take a look at the former MVP and his 2010 fantasy potential.

Three-Year Stats (5×5 Roto Categories):

2007: .268 AVG, 94 R’s, 47 HR’s, 136 RBI’s, 1 SB

2008: .251 AVG, 105 R’s, 48 HR’s, 146 RBI’s, 1 SB

2009: .279 AVG, 105 R’s, 45 HR’s, 141 RBI’s, 8 SB’s

2010 Predictions:

Bill James: .278 AVG, 103 R’s, 48 HR’s, 143 RBI’s, 5 SB’s

CHONE: .270 AVG, 89 R’s, 44 HR’s, 131 RBI’s, 2 SB’s

Marcel: .264 AVG, 89 R’s, 39 HR’s, 119 RBI’s, 4 SB’s

Let’s Talk…

It is not a surprise to see Bill James having the most optimistic view on Howard’s ‘10 campaign, as his projections are always on the higher side. CHONE and Marcel both have Howard performing well below the standard he has set since becoming a full-time starter in ‘06. Since that time, his low home run total was 45 (’09) and low RBI total was 136 (’07). There is no way, barring injury, that he sets a new low in each of those power categories. Either way, the reason you are thinking of drafting the former 5th-round pick is because of his insane power numbers.

Over at MockDraftCentral, Howard is sporting an ADP of 10.32, or just outside of the first round. In ESPN’s first fantasy mock a few weeks ago, he fell to 18th overall, prompting Keith Law to analyze “…to get one of the likeliest candidates to lead the league in home runs and RBIs this close to the third round? Hard to beat that price”.

So even though you would have to spend at least a second-round pick to snag Howard, he falls in at around No. 4 among first baseman behind Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, and Mark Teixeira. After that, there is a somewhat significant dropoff. Let’s take a close look at Howard for this upcoming fantasy season from a 5×5 rotisserie perspective.

AVG: Howard finished last season with a .279 BA, highest since the .313 he put up during his monster MVP season of ‘06. For all the flak he receives for an inordinate amount of strikeouts, finishing the year just under .280 is quite impressive. Pure power hitters aren’t expected to hit .300. Fantasy owners know this and should be satisfied if their main muscle on their squad puts up a .275+ BA. Howard is constantly facing a shift, and is almost always going up against the opposing teams’ best left-hander in the late innings. So while the guy is talented enough to hit .300 again, the chances of him doing so are not so great. Expect a .270 BA and hope for .285.

…More after the jump

Runs: The big ‘fella finished 10th in the MLB last year with 105 runs scored. Hitting in front of guys like Raul Ibanez and Jayson Werth helped Howard cross the plate so many times. With the lineup behind him improved (Shane Victorino will likely inherit the No. 7 hole from Pedro Feliz), Howard should be able to rack up a similar amount of runs. And in case you don’t know, Howard has some decent wheels on him for a 245 lb. monster. Look for another 100+ runs.

Home Runs: This is why you draft Howard. The guy is the most consistent big bopper in the game and should continue to deliver for fantasy lineups. While he will go on his patented cold streaks, there aren’t many better guys to have on your side when he gets going. Plug him in your lineup and walk away with another 45+ home runs in 2010.

RBI’s: With home runs come RBI’s. Especially when you hit behind the likes of Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and now Placido Polanco. Howard is an RBI machine and provides elite production in this category. There is no reason to expect less than 135 more for this season.

SB’s: This is a category where Howard could sneakily help your team. He stole eight bags in just nine opportunities last season. With pitchers more concerned with the likes of Ibanez and Werth in the batter’s box, Howard goes largely unnoticed on the basepaths. Having Davey Lopes to coach baserunning only improves Howard’s chances of duplicating his stolen base total from a year ago. I like the trimmed-up slugger’s chances of providing some nice extra value to fantasy teams in this category. Expect 6-10 swipes.

Analysis:

The highest paid player ($19 million) on the Phillies enters the season with no contact squabbles, no World Series hangover, and no injuries. He has been working hard all offseason to improve on his already impressive career resume. The menacing slugger anchors an offense that is among the league’s two or three best. So there is no surprise when he comes off the board early in the second round of your fantasy draft. The question is, do you build you team around a bona fide slugger like Howard? Do you build your team around an ace like Tim Lincecum or Roy Halladay? Or do you go with a a more consistent producer like Joe Mauer?

These are the decisions you have to make early on in your draft. I can say with certainty that going with Howard is a smart move that you can be confident in. Whether or not you can live with a (mainly) three-category contributor with one of your first two picks is your decision, good luck making it.

Positional Rank: 5 (Pujols, Fielder, Cabrera, Teixeira)

Overall Rank: 12

PhillyPhanatic Prediction: .275 AVG, 103 Runs, 47 HR’s, 148 RBI’s, 9 SB’s

-Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels are both already at the Clearwater complex. Since Halladay lives nearby, he has been a frequent visitor to Bright House Networks Field, often getting to the park before 9 a.m. Hamels joins him early, hoping to put behind a subpar ‘09 campaign and learn some new tricks from the new No. 1 starter.

-J.C. Romero hopes to be ready for Opening Day. After undergoing surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in October, Romero is confident he will be ready early in the 2010 season. Since there are zero left handed relievers with any real experience in camp, getting Romero going early would be huge for the bullpen.

-The guys over at TheGoodPhight wrote an interesting piece on the drafting of Chase Utley (15th overall), Ryan Howard (140th overall), and Cole Hamels (17th overall). The article talks about how “lucky” the Phils got in selecting those players where there were drafted.

-Jim Salisbury of Comcast writes how the city of Clearwater is preparing for its annual flock of Phillies fans. The weather is a bit chilly this week, but nothing could be worse than the constant snow and below freezing temperatures in Philly.

-Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked the top 11 Phillies prospects. No surprise who is at the top, outfielder Domonic Brown, the only prospect with a five star rating. Coming in at two was Phillippe Aumont, who was given four star status.

-Planning on making a trip down to Clearwater this spring? Check out Philly.com’s 2010 Spring Training Guide, which is all you need for your trip down the coast.

-What did the Phillies pack the moving van with? (per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki):

The team loaded 15 cases of gum, 12 cases of sunflower seeds, 20 coolers, a palette worth of drink mix, 300 batting helmets, 350 pairs of shorts, 450 pairs of socks, 600 pairs of pants, 600 hats, 200 fleeces, 1,200 bats, 2,000 T-shirts, 10,000 cups, 15,000 baseballs and 150 pairs of batting gloves.

-Ryan Howard was seen in Miami with Eagles cheerleader Kystle Campbell. Nice pull, Ryan. (courtesy of TheFightins.com)

Three-Year Stats (5×5 Roto Categories):

2007: .298 AVG, 43 R’s, 8 HR’s, 49 RBI’s, 7 SB’s (94 games)

2008: .273 AVG, 73 R’s, 24HR’s, 67 RBI’s, 20 SB’s (134 games)

2009: .268 AVG, 98 R’s, 36 HR’s, 99 RBI’s, 20 SB’s

2010 Predictions:

Bill James: .269 AVG, 86 R’s, 28 HR’s, 88 RBI’s, 17 SB’s

CHONE: .265 AVG, 73 R’s, 23 HR’s, 73 RBI’s, 12 SB’s

Marcel: .269 AVG, 83 R’s, 27 HR’s, 82 RBI’s, 18 SB’s

Let’s Talk…

The projection systems are not necessarily in favor of Werth repeating his monster ‘09 campaign. At the age of 30, he set career highs in runs, home runs, RBI’s, OPS, and doubles. He hits in the middle of a star studded lineup that produces runs at will. There is no reason, other than injury, to expect a significant decline in Werth’s production. All the time you hear coaches and fellow teammates that “Werthy” is a special player that has yet to even reach his potential.

No one knows for certain what he will do next season, so fantasy owners are stuck with the question on where to draft Werth. In ESPN’s most recent mock draft, he was selected 40th overall. Outfielders who went shortly after him were Jason Bay, Adam Lind, and Carlos Lee. After going relatively unnoticed in ‘09 drafts, owners will have to cough  up a third or fourth-round pick to get the talented right fielder. On most preseason lists, he falls in the top 10 of available outfielders, and is on an even shorter list of guys who are potential five-category contributors. Here is a breakdown of Werth for 2010 in a 5X5 roto format.

AVG: Having finished just one year with a batting average over .273 (.298 in ‘07), Werth is not a guy to count on to bring up your team’s BA. He likes to go deep into counts to try to work a walk, which is the reason for both his high BB% (13.5) and K% (27.3) in ‘09. One positive outlook is that his BABIP of .309 last season was a career low, leaving some optimism that his BA could trend upward in ‘10. I would have to agree with the projection systems in that category, however, and guess Werth will hit around .272, not a roster-killer for a high round pick.

…More after the jump

Runs: Werth finished 11th in the NL in runs despite hitting out of the fifth and sixth hole for the entire season. The guys behind him (Pedro Feliz, Carlos Ruiz) weren’t big RBI’s guys, so it is pretty impressive that Werth was able to cross home plate 98 times. Going into next season, I imagine Charlie Manuel penciling him in at No.5, directly in front of Ibanez, Victorino, and Ruiz. There is some pop behind him in the lineup, which leads me to believe that Werth will at least come close to the 98 runs he scored last year. But I would temper my expectations and expect 90-95 runs from him this year.

Home Runs: This is the stat that really jumps out at you from Werth’s breakout season. With a previous season-high of 24, no one expected him to finish ‘09 with 36 bombs. He posted a .238 ISO, besting teammate Chase Utley’s .226. Werth’s 19.3 HR/FB% was even less than his ‘08 number of 21.1%, proving that he isn’t getting lucky on his fly balls. You have to consider the ballpark he plays in, the lineup around him, and the untapped potential when deciding where you would draft Werth. In the home run department, Werth is just beginning to show his stuff. Expect another 36 in ‘10.

RBI’s: When Placido Polanco, Utley, and Ryan Howard are the three guys batting ahead of you, expect to see plenty of RBI opportunities. Werth finished with a career-high 98 last season, and could easily match that if he maintains his slugging percentage. It’s funny to think he could rack up even more RBI’s if he wasn’t so selective in the batter’s box. He nears the top of the league in pitches seen per at-bat, which has a direct effect on his high K rate. If he shortened up and attacked the pitcher earlier in the count with men on base, he would increase his RBI totals. But that is Werth’s game, and asking him to change his approach at the plate in not in the team’s best interest. Basically what I’m saying is not too expect a 125+ RBI season out of the lanky RF.  Another 95 will be just fine.

SB’s: This is where the hidden value in drafting Werth lies. No one really expects a tall white boy to be out there swiping bags, but he has stolen 20 in each of the past two seasons. With Davey Lopes instructing, Werth has been able to swipe those 40 bags while getting caught just four total times (three last season). While reaching that 20 plateau for a third consecutive season might be a little tough, you should certainly count on at least 15 swipes from Werth in 2010.

Positional Analysis

When assembling your pecking order of outfielders, you are always faced with tough decisions as you move down the list. The problem is, you have to choose between guys who contribute in differing categories. Rarely does a player give you some love in all five categories. That is the beauty in taking Werth. At a point in your draft where you don’t want to have to throw too many eggs in a certain basket, you can take solace in knowing that the Phillies 6′5 five hole hitter will give you some production across the board.

Fanhouse.com just came out with their outfield rankings for 2010, and Werth settles in at No.8, directly behind Justin Upton, Grady Sizemore, and Jacoby Ellsbury. Behind him are Bay, Ichiro Suzuki, and Andre Ethier. I love to see how Bay is falling in mock drafts because his trade to the power-less Mets. Many people are shying away from Werth because of his rising ADP, subpar BA, and lack of a track record. But would you really be all that surprised if he didn’t outperform Sizemore? or Upton? or even Carl Crawford?

Also to consider is Werth’s pending free agency. You know he has all the incentive in the world to match or outperform his number from last season. There are early talks of him getting a Bay-type deal somewhere if he can sustain his production for another year. The added motivation is just the cherry on top of your selection of Werth in the fourth-round of your fantasy draft this year.

Position Rank: 7 (behind Braun, Kemp, Holliday, Crawford, Upton, Sizemore)

Overall Rank: 35 (mid fourth-round pick)

Philly Phanatic Prediction: .272 AVG, 95 Runs, 36 HR’s, 94 RBI’s, 16 SB’s

Three-Year Stats (5×5 Roto Categories):

2007: .296 AVG, 139 R’s, 30 HR’s, 94 RBI’s, 41 SB’s

2008: .277 AVG, 76 R’s, 11 HR’s, 59 RBI’s, 47 SB’s (missed time w/ankle injury)

2009: .250 AVG, 100 R’s, 21 HR’s, 77 RBI’s, 31 SB’s

2010 Predictions:

Bill James: .271 AVG, 104 R’s, 19 HR’s, 71 RBI’s, 33 SB’s

CHONE: .268 AVG, 102 R’s, 19 HR’s, 70 RBI’s, 29 SB’s

Marcel: .265 AVG, 87 R’s, 18 HR’s, 66 RBI’s, 32 SB’s

Let’s Talk…

Luckily for fantasy players, you do not have to carry the baggage that is Rollins’s god-awful OBP (.296 in ‘09) numbers. You can live with a .260 AVG for a shortstop with power and speed potential. Here is the breakdown of each 5×5 roto category:

AVG: There are many reasons to agree with Bill James and friends that Rollins will bump up his paltry batting average in 2010. The first is his incredibly low .253 BABIP from last season, worst by a longshot among starting position players for the Phils (Pedro Feliz next with .284). His 10.4% K rate in ‘09 is 2.5% below his career average, more proof that J-Roll could have been dealing with some serious bad luck. That being said, no one is expecting Rollins to hit .300 for the first time. Expect more in the range of .265-.275, certainly not a deal breaker for fantasy owners.

…More after the jump

Runs: Rollins finished 10th in the NL in runs (100) last season, behind teammates Chase Utley (113), Ryan Howard (105), and Shane Victorino (102). In his ‘07 MVP season, he led the NL with 139. The reason for his (relatively) subpar run scoring totals last season was his inability to get on base. So many times when you watch the Phillies you will see the announcers display the team’s record when J-Roll crosses home plate. He clearly is a catalyst at the top of the order and can absolutely rack up the runs when he is playing well. Look for 110+ in ‘10.

Home Runs: This is a category that historically lacked production at the shortstop position. While the majority of them still are light-hitting, Rollins is one of three (Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki) who are capable of 25+ dingers. Getting that kind of power at such a scarce position is nothing to scoff at. While he will be three years removed from his 30-homer season, Rollins still has the ability to go yard. Expect another 20-home run season from the diminutive leadoff hitter.

RBI’s: So much of this category depends on the rest of your team. In this case, Rollins will be batting atop the lineup of one of the best offenses in baseball. Again, Rollins trailed only Ramirez and Tulo in this power category, ending up with 77 RBI’s last season. That really is a ton of ribbies when you consider Carlos Ruiz and the pitcher’s spot are the two previous hitters. This season, Victorino will likely move into the No. 7 hole vacated by Feliz. That should give Rollins some more opportunities to knock ‘em in with some speed on the basepaths. I’m expecting 80 RBI’s.

SB’s: Would you believe me if I told you the only shortstop to out-steal Rollins (31) in ‘09 was mid-season call-up Elvis Andrus (33) of the Rangers? Well, that’s exactly what happened. Kinda surprising the lack of production in speed from the SS position. Combine that with the fact that the 31 steals were the fewest for J-Roll since his 2004 campaign, and you can safely assume that he will be near the top of the list in SS stolen bags. With Davey Lopes assisting, look for Rollins to exceed 35 steals.

Position Analysis:

Ahh, the drafting of a shortstop. Always the toughest position to fill come draft day. Do you waste a high pick on a guy just because of scarcity, or do you go bargain shopping later on after the big boys have been called? Last year, we saw both Rollins and Jose Reyes off the board in the first 15 picks, but both were disappointments. This time around, the only surefire first-round pick is Ramirez, who has his own tier among SS’s.

Next in line would have to be Tulo, who is a five-category contributor playing his home games at Coors Field. The next three are tough to decide between. There is the high-risk guy, Reyes. The ageless one, Derek Jeter. And the former MVP who is coming off a down year, in J-Roll. All three went in the 20’s in the first installment of ESPN’s Mock Draft, conducted last week.

The next SS took in that mock was Andrus at #88, further evidence of the significant drop-off after those first five players. So it is up to you to decide whether using a high-round pick on a stud SS is worth it. I would put J-Roll 3rd behind Ramirez and Tulo, if only because he has fresher, healthier legs than Jeter and Reyes. If he slid to me in the middle to late third round, I would certainly pull the trigger and hope he gets somewhere close to his ‘07 numbers.

Position Rank- 3

Overall Rank- 26

PhillyPhanatic Prediction- .270, 110 R’s, 23 HR’s, 80 RBI’s, 38 SB’s

-Phillies prospect Brody Colvin was arrested Saturday morning in his hometown of Lafayette, La. The 19-year old was charged with disturbing the peace, simple battery, and resisting a police office in an area which is filled with bars and college kids. The 7th-round pick signed a $900,000 signing bonus to skip college and join the Phils, who “were persistent in recruiting Colvin”.

Unfortunate that the right-handed pitching prospect got nailed, but I can’t blame him for being young and enjoying the off season. Hopefully this is a one-time thing and that Colvin, a highly touted prospect, isn’t a bad drunk like Brett Myers.

-David Murphy at the Daily News has a good breakdown of the Phillies offseason, grading out the different areas of concern. I would probably move his A- for third base to a B+ because of the length of Polanco’s contract, but other than he does a good job assessing the moves made by Ruben Amaro Jr. and company.

-The guys over at BleacherReport put together an all-time starting rotation for the Phillies.

-Somehow, Shane Victorino made his second straight appearance on the red carpet at the annual Grammy Awards. Go figure.

Contreras finished last season with a combined 4.92 ERA in 131.2 innings. He had a 7.25 K/9, and a 3.62 BB/9, both higher than his career averages. Opponents had a .325 BABIP on Contreras, which likely inflated his ERA a bit. His FIP was a 4.11, better than J.A. Happ (4.33) and Joe Blanton (4.45).

So the 38-year old seems to have enough in the tank to be given a job in the Phils pen. Would they consider anything more than that? Before last year, Ruben Amaro Jr. promised Chan Ho Park an opportunity to win the fifth starter job in spring training. The experiment ultimately failed before Park proved to be a force out of the bullpen. This year, no promise has been made to Contreras.

…More after the jump

However, the health status of Jamie Moyer and the question mark that is Kyle Kendrick will force the ballclub to give Contreras starts in the Grapefruit League. Even if he made the best impression of any potential fifth-starter, there remains a high likelihood he still would get the bullpen call.

“Our scouts feel that at this stage of his career, he’s best suited to being in the bullpen,” Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said. “But the fact that he has started for the bulk of his career, that gives us a little bit of depth there, too. This is a player who has already told us that he’ll do whatever is best for the club.”

During a course of a year, no team goes with the same five guys throughout. Injuries and ineffectiveness cause frequent rotation turnover. The management of that turnover is a huge key to success in this league, and it doesn’t hurt if the next guy in line has experience on their side. In this case, Contreras adds insurance for the starting rotation while being a cog in the bullpen.

The organization has had success turning former starters into quality relievers (Chard Durbin, Brett Myers, Park), so they are hoping the big Cuban can flourish in a new role. He spoke about the situation Thursday:

“My preference is to start,” Contreras said through his translator, agent Jamie Torres, “but I’ll do what is necessary. When Colorado told me I was going to the bullpen, I wasn’t sure and comfortable, but everything went fine and I felt pretty good,” he said.

There are some guys who would be lost with a move to the ‘pen, but Contreras seems like someone who could succeed there. He throws primarily two pitchers, a fastball (53.8% of the time), and a slider (28.2%). If he can focus on locating just those two pitches, he could succeed for at least one time through the batting order.

News about this move isn’t buzzing in the streets of Philadelphia, but it is one which could squeeze out an extra win or two in the regular season. And while the Phillies remain the strong favorites in the NL East, the Braves and Marlins are improved franchises who will not lay down for the division champs. Every win counts. Contreras is an experienced gamer who will be rejuvenated playing for a World Series contending, National League team in a new but important role. Sounds like a match.

The forums are run by Jason Collette, who is an associate editor for both OwnersEdge.com and RotoTimes.com. He also takes care of the Tampa Bay Rays blog in the Fanball network, DockoftheRays.com.

Phillies topics currently being discussed over at RotoJunkie:

-Is Lou Marson, part of the trade that brought Cliff Lee to Philadelphia, the starting catcher for Cleveland this season?

-What to expect from J.A. Happ in 2010? The jury is still out on the 27-year old, who had an incredibly consistent ‘09 season but still has people questioning his ability.

-Some intriguing thoughts in an ongoing thread about the state of the Phils farm system after the recent blockbuster trades.

Google Reader RSS: Baseball team blogs on Fanball network

-Check out the RSS feed of all the fine baseball writers in the Fanball community. Great way to find out what’s going on around the league,  combined with great analysis and fantasy info.

All of the pending arbitration cases are now settled now that the 31-year old Ruiz has gotten his payday. With the recent outflow of catching prospects, Ruben Amaro decided Ruiz will be his man for the foreseeable future. In the past year, Amaro has shipped away Lou Marson, Travis D’Arnaud, Jason Jaramillio, and Ronny Paulino. That leaves only Sebastian Valle as a major-league caliber prospect, and he spent last season at Single-A.

In 2009, Ruiz batted .255 with 43 RBI’s and a career high nine home runs. He posted a career best .780 OPS, fifth among NL catchers with 350+ plate appearances. By comparison, Rollins sported a .719 OPS in ‘09. There is no doubt Ruiz is improving with the bat, and has come up large in postseason play (.303 BA). The best part of his game, however, is the defensive side, where he has a great rapport with the staff and is one of the best at receiving the ball.

Well liked in the clubhouse and among the Philly fanbase, Ruiz is quite deserving of his new contract. The deal buys out his three remaining arbitration years and potentially his first year of free agency. Good for you, Chooch!