Phillies SS prospect JP Crawford

I failed to put together a midseason top prospect list update, so instead, I’ll do a somewhat extensive stock up/down entry.

Up

3. SS J.P. Crawford: Crawford proved his strong pro debut in 2013 wasn’t a fluke, and he’s on the short list for best shortstop prospects in the league.  He’s a no doubt big league shortstop defensively, and his bat has been better than expected, particularly his power.  He should start next season with Double-A Reading, and it’s not out of the question that he is Jimmy Rollins’ direct replacement in 2016.

9. CF Carlos Tocci: Whether Tocci should be in this group or the steady group was a tough choice, but I gave him the benefit of the doubt.  In his second South Atlantic League season, he did show some improvement; he was clearly a bit stronger with more extra base hits, but it would’ve been nice to see some improvement in his walk and strikeout rates.  He’ll again spend an off-season trying to get stronger.

16. CF Roman Quinn: Quinn would have been ranked much higher if he had entered the season healthy, and now that he’s proven that he is, he’ll reclaim his spot near the top of the organization.  He shrugged off his achilles injury to steal 30 bases for the third straight season, and he continued to hit decently at the plate.  Moving forward, he has to make more contact and walk at a higher rate to better utilize his speed.

20. LHP Yoel Mecias: Mecias missed most of the year after Tommy John surgery, but he returned to throw 50.2 innings.  His strikeout rate decreased a pretty significant amount compared to his partial-breakout 2013 season, but his walk rate decreased too, something I don’t think is too common after elbow injuries.  We’ll see how his stuff looks next year with Clearwater.

IF Jesmuel Valentin/RHP Victor Arano: Both players the Phillies acquired for Roberto Hernandez are coming off seasons that saw their stock improve.  Valentin hit better in his second go-around in the Midwest League and earned a promotion to the Florida State League after the trade.  Arano might already be their second best right-handed pitching prospect behind Aaron Nola.

Down

1. 3B Maikel Franco: There’s no question Franco found his power stroke and finished the season hot, but he still finished with just a .727 OPS thanks to his horrendous months of April and June.  Because of his great finish and the surprisingly positive review of his defense at third base (Baseball America’s survey of International League managers found that he was the best defensive third baseman in the IL,) there’s a case to be made that Franco’s stock should be steady, not down.  I’d be surprised to see him back in BA’s top 20 prospects this off-season though, and that would mean his stock is down.

7. RHP Severino Gonzalez: In 2013, Gonzalez emerged as a prospect with average stuff and great control, and 2014 in Double-A would be a test if he could keep getting batters out.  For the most part, he wasn’t able to do that.  He still threw a lot of strikes, but the stuff wasn’t getting strikeouts anymore.  Batters hit him harder, and suddenly he looks like less of a prospect.  Because the organization has such little depth, he’s still one of their better ones though.

8. CF Aaron Altherr: Altherr enjoyed a breakout 2013 that conveniently featured the highest BABIP of his career.  He still showed the power and speed evaluators came to expect, but he finally hit for an acceptable average.  In 2014 with Reading after coming back from injury, it appears 2013 was a fluke.  His hit tool still seems to be below average, and that probably means he’s not an everyday player.

13. Cameron Rupp: Last off-season, I wasn’t sure if signing Wil Nieves to a big league deal made a lot of sense because Rupp should’ve had a leg up for the Phillies’ backup catcher spot.  This off-season, the Phillies can’t expect anything from Rupp.  He’s had a terrible 2014, batting .155 with a career high 34.7% strikeout rate.  He was always a bit of an all-or-nothing offensive player, but 2014 has just been nothing.

Down/Injured

2. LHP Jesse Biddle: After a foot injury and illness hampered Biddle in 2013, a concussion altered 2014.  He was struggling even before that though, and next year, he has to pitch well.  We’ve already, fairly I might add, written off the last one and a half seasons due to injuries, but the excuses have to stop at some point.

5. RF Kelly Dugan: I’m tempted to list Dugan as a straight down because of his lengthening injury history, but factually, injuries did affect him again this year.  He performed well again, and that’s what makes his injuries so frustrating.  At some point, it’ll be time to just stop expecting he’ll ever be able to play 130-140 games.

6. RHP Miguel Gonzalez: Between the reduced signing bonus, no off-season activity, poor spring training and getting shut down with injuries twice, it was a long string of bad news for the Phillies’ big Cuban signing.  Gonzalez has his fastball velocity back in relief, but it’s hard to call this anything but a missed year.  Hopefully he can transition back to the rotation next spring.

12. LHP Adam Morgan: Morgan had shoulder surgery in the off-season after a poor 2013, and he didn’t pitch at all in 2014.  I expected he would be back for at least a little bit, but obviously he didn’t make enough progress to get back on the mound.  It was a huge blow to the Phillies since before his shoulder problems, he was a fringe top 100 prospect in baseball.

17. RHP Shane Watson: Like Morgan, I expected Watson to pitch at some point this season.  He also had shoulder surgery and also never returned to action despite that being the expectation.  At 21 years old with just 79 professional innings under his belt, Watson has to come back and show something quickly to get his career back on track.

25. C Tommy Joseph: It’s hard to not feel bad for Joseph after having another season significantly altered by injuries, and he actually had fewer plate appearances this season than he did in 2013.  This time, it was mostly a wrist injury that sidelined him.  Unlike last year, he was actually performing well though.  He could once again be the toughest player in the organization to rank.

Steady

10. RHP Ethan Martin: Martin started the season late because of a shoulder injury, and when he came back, the Phillies threw in the towel on his career as a starter.  That’s probably for the best because he doesn’t have an effective changeup to get lefties out.  He was a little better throwing strikes when he returned to Lehigh Valley, but he has to continue to improve to really capitalize on his good stuff.

15. 3B Zach Green: Green’s shoulder injury cost him a big chunk of plate appearances and forced him to play first base when he did return.  As long as that shift across the diamond isn’t permanent, his future still looks pretty nice.  He cut down on his strikeouts pretty significantly, and if his power fully returns when he’s healthy next year, he should be in good shape moving forward.

23. 1B Luis Encarnacion: Encarnacion was the youngest professional player in the U.S. this season, so it’s not a huge setback that he posted just a .637 OPS before sitting out the last two weeks of the season for seemingly no reason.  When he goes back to the Gulf Coast League next year, he’ll probably still be one of the 20 youngest players in the league.

27. OF Jose Pujols: Pujols played the entire 2014 season at 17 years old, so he still has a lot of time to develop.  It still would’ve been nice to see him show a little improvement repeating the GCL.  Instead, his walk rate dropped, he somehow struck out more, and although his OPS was up 55 points, I’m inclined to attribute most of that to a huge increase in his BABIP.

Graduated

4. 2B Cesar Hernandez: I’ve been of the opinion that Hernandez could be an everyday player for a while, but after a year he mostly spent in the majors not playing, it seems pretty unlikely.  This was his last option year, and the Phillies are no closer to finding out what his potential is than they were at this time last year.  He can hang on as a utility player with his speed and defensive versatility, but I don’t think they did him any favors with their development plan.

18. RHP Ken Giles: In retrospect, Giles should have obviously been higher, although to be fair, he’s pitching better now than he did as a minor leaguer.  If he keeps throwing strikes the way he has, he’s certainly one of the best relievers in the league as it looks like the Phillies are starting to finally build a bullpen.

When choosing players to get AFL assignments, they usually think about these factors: if a player missed a significant part of the season due to injury or suspension, players that will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft and may need to be placed on the 40 man roster, and players that could just use some more reps against upper level competition.

C Logan Moore: Moore will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter, but I don’t think anyone will care.  He’s a career .213/.288/.299 hitter, and even though reports on his defense seem to all be good, I’m not sure if any kind of defense will make up for hitting like that.

RHP Colton Murray: Murray is also in his first year of Rule 5 draft eligibility, and he’s having his best career season at just the right time.  The 24 year old has a 26.0% strikeout rate at Double-A Reading, but he needs to cut down on his 9.5% walk rate.  He works mainly with a 92-94 MPH fastball and high-70’s breaking ball which gets swing and misses.  If the Phillies don’t protect him on the 40 man roster, he could be taken and even stick, but it’s not like they’d be missing out on a significant contributor.

RHP Nefi Ogando: Usually Latino players go to their home countries to play winter ball, but apparently LIDOM wasn’t interested in him.  It’s his second year of Rule 5 eligibility after being acquired for John McDonald last year, and it’s possible he would be selected.  He’s pitched poorly, but he has a high-90’s fastball, so it’s not hard to see why he might appeal to teams.

RHP Ryan O’Sullivan: The Phillies got O’Sullivan from the Dodgers in the Joe Blanton trade two years ago, and he’s now Rule 5 draft eligible.  The younger O’Sullivan brother the Phillies have has bounced between the rotation and bullpen for Reading, and he’s had okay results.  He works with an average fastball and slider, and the lack of a quality changeup means he should probably pitch in relief.

CF Roman Quinn: Quinn laps the field in terms of intrigue among prospects the Phillies assigned to the AFL.  His .708 OPS is just a bit over the league average, and his 21.2% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate are nearly identical to last year’s rates with Lakewood.  He stole over 30 bases this year, so there’s not much concern about bouncing back from his wrist and achilles injuries that sidelined him for half of the year.

The level of competition he faces in the AFL will be higher than what he faced in the Florida State League this year, but he shouldn’t be so far out of his league he doesn’t belong.  He’ll get more time to adjust to center field.

LHP Ethan Stewart: There was a time Stewart was a top 30 prospect in the organization.  That time has passed, mostly because he’s walked a horrendous 14.8% of opponents in the two seasons since then.  He hasn’t even had much success against lefties, so I’m not sure how a big league team could utilize him for a whole year in the bullpen.  He’ll still only be 24 next year, and it does take time for big pitchers to straighten out their mechanics and throw strikes.

On Baseball America’s roster listing, there’s a TBA spot in the infield, and I’m assuming that’s one the Phillies are going to fill.  I wonder if they’re hoping to get permission for Maikel Franco to play there this year, but I’d imagine he’s going back to LIDOM for another off-season.  KC Serna, an independent league signing that plays a good shortstop, played at Clearwater and Reading this year, and he’s still young enough to be prospect-ish.

However, it’s a top heavy organization.  Their top three prospects are all very good, but after that they’re going to struggle putting a deal together.  I put three players in the average tier, but I don’t blame you if you’re not excited about them.  It’s not a deep group here.

This isn’t a list of their top five prospects but organized into potential trade value tiers.  Listed ages reflect the 2015 season.

Great tier

RHP Dylan Bundy (22): Since I can’t imagine the Orioles would be willing to spring for Cole Hamels.  If not, Bundy will not be on the table.  He’s working his way back from Tommy John surgery.

RHP Hunter Harvey (20): He’s only in Low-A now, but it didn’t take long last season for it to become clear the Orioles got one of the top arms in the 2014 draft 22nd overall.  Harvey owns a mid-90’s fastball, a great curveball and an improving changeup.  He already throws strikes and competes.  He’s young, but he could probably move quickly since he already knows how to pitch.  Because he’s still a few levels away, I’m not sure how to evaluate his trade value.

Good tier

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (22): Rodriguez has been underwhelming this season, but a knee injury that took him out of action for over a month could be a culprit.  He’s still in Double-A at a pretty young age, and he has the potential for three above average pitches.    His fastball and slider are already there, and his changeup is improving, as is his confidence in the pitch.  If he can get strikeouts with his slider, he has a number three ceiling, and it won’t be long before he’s in the majors.

IF Jonathan Schoop (23): Schoop is no longer considered a prospect because he’s been in the big leagues all year, but since this is such a top heavy system, he’s probably worth mentioning anyway.  He hasn’t been good this year, and he never really dominated the minors because the Orioles were always so fast to promote him to a new level.  Maybe it’s too late to undo the damage they did, but he can play every infield position and has some power potential.

Average tier

C Chance Sisco (20): Cisco’s bat and approach should land him in the above tier, but his defensive position is in question.  He’s new to catching, but he hasn’t shown much improvement since he first started.  At the plate though, he offers a nice approach and good feel for contact, batting well over .300 in his young career so far.  If he has to play third base or left field, his power potential comes into question, but the hit tool can always carry a player to the majors.

LHP Tim Berry (24): Berry has pretty decent stuff, but Tommy John surgery earlier in his career had his development lagging a bit.  He’s having a nice season in Double-A, but his changeup needs to develop more for him to stick in the rotation.  His fastball and breaking ball are both above average, but he needs that changeup to get righties out.  Right-handed batters have an OPS over .800 against him for two of the last three years.

RHP Zach Davies (22): Davies is pretty close to the majors, but he’s not a high impact player.  He’s a short righty with an average fastball, and the track record for those pitchers isn’t great.  He’s made it work so far in his career though, working with a plus changeup, good control and pitchability.  He missed some time with shoulder soreness this year, but since he came back he’s throwing more strikes.

Could the Phillies trade Cliff Lee again?

The Phillies should be prepared to be sellers at this deadline, and unlike the last two years when they probably should have been, it seems like reality is finally setting in for Ruben Amaro.  The problem isn’t just identifying it though.  The problem is him doing something about it.  Trading for prospects has certainly not been a strength for him, among most things.

It would be great if he could be replaced by someone from outside of the organization before the big players like Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee get moved, but that seems unlikely.  Not that all three will be moved in the two weeks, but botching the trade of any of them would be another big setback for the team.

The Dodgers are one team that’s probably scouting Phillies players right now.  Unlike previous years, Utley probably doesn’t do much for them with Dee Gordon’s breakout, but they apparently still want another starter.  If they pick up Hamels or Lee to go with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu, they’re going to be tough to beat.  More importantly for the Phillies, the Dodgers have the prospects to get a trade done.

This isn’t a top prospects list, but I tried to organize potentially interesting players by trade value.  The ages listed are for the 2015 season.

Top tier

IF Corey Seager (21): Seager is a better prospect than his brother Kyle was, and he can be a future All-Star and middle of the lineup hitter.  He plays shortstop now, but there’s not really a track record for 6’4 shortstops in the big leagues.  Fortunately, he has the power to profile at third base.  In 80 California League games, he batted .352 this year with 54 extra base hits.  He’s on his way to AA now, and it won’t be long until he’s in the big leagues.

OF Joc Pederson (24): If the Phillies pick up Pederson today, he could be their best outfielder tomorrow.  All five of his tools are average or better, and he can play either center field or a corner spot depending on who else is in the outfield.  His 28.5% strikeout rate is a bit bothersome and his OPS north of 1.000 is inflated playing in Albuquerque, but he can really hit no matter the environment.  He’s improving against lefties, and he could have some 20-20 All-Star seasons.

Very good tier

LHP Julio Urias (18): Talent-wise, Urias belongs at the top of the list.  This weekend, he became the youngest player to ever play in the Futures Game.  He’s already pitching in high-A, and he’s one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.  I just hesitate a bit because he’s so young.  His fastball sits in the low-90’s, and his curveball and changeup both have plus or better potential.  Because he’s so young, the toughest thing for the Dodgers right now is carefully managing his innings.

Good tier

RHP Zach Lee (23): After his best professional season last year in AA, Lee is in the midst of his worst.  It’s tough pitching in Albuquerque, and with his career low 15.6% strikeout rate, he’s getting hit hard.  At the very least, he could be a strike thrower, but his walk rate is a career worst at 8.7% too.  He’s probably still a back-end starter, but he never really developed into the pitcher people expected in 2010.

RHP Chris Anderson (22): Anderson is a former first round pick, and he’s still struggling throwing strikes in his second professional year.  He has good stuff though and could be a mid-rotation starter.  He’s big, durable and complements his low-90’s fastball with movement with a hard slider and improving changeup.

IF Jesmuel Valentin (21): Jose’s son was a bit of a surprise as a first round pick, but his bat has really improved in his second go-around in low-A.  Playing shortstop isn’t out of the question, but the Dodgers seem content to keep him at second base.  He has very little power, but he’s pretty patient, tends to put his bat on the ball and can steal some bases.

RHP Victor Arano (20): The Dodgers challenged Arano with a full-season assignment, and he’s handling it.  His fastball and breaking ball are both potential plus pitches, and he’s striking out over a batter an inning and throwing a ton of strikes.  He has an advanced feel for pitching, and he could move quickly.

Average tier

LHP Tom Windle (23): Windle’s ceiling is similar to Anderson’s, but he’s less likely to reach it.  He has to improve his command.

LHP Chris Reed (25): Reed may not be a starter long term, but he’s finally having AA success in his second full season there.

RHP Jose Dominguez (24): Dominguez’s fastball can hit triple digits in relief, but his minor league performance is not very good this year.

RHP Zach Bird (20): Bird has impressive stuff, and his second go-around in the Midwest League has been a little better.  He’s a bit of a lottery ticket.

IF Darnell Sweeney (24): Sweeney is a rising player with power, speed and an improving plate approach.  He could be an offensive-minded utility player.

LF Scott Schebler (24): Schebler has been an extremely productive minor league hitter with 44 home runs since the start of last year over two levels.  He’s limited to left field though.

LF Ibandel Isabel (20): Isabel is a lottery ticket whose stateside performance has been poor in the early going.  Eventually, he should hit for a pretty solid average.

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Their offense is a mix of high college picks and younger players from the Gulf Coast League last year.  Headlining that group of young players is probably catcher Deivi Grullon.  He’s off to a slow start behind the plate, but in the end, he’s almost certainly the best catcher in the New York-Penn League and should control the running game with his great arm.  Like he did last year in the GCL, he’s providing above average offense despite not really having any power.

Cord Sandberg highlights a pair of 2013 picks that could be rising in prospect rankings.  Along with Grullon and Jan Hernandez, he’s one of 13 position players in the league younger than 20, and he’s showing off all of his tools.  He’s batting over .300, showing decent power despite a tough home environment for doing so, he’s stolen a few bases efficiently, and his plate approach has been good.  Hernandez has shown even more power than Sandberg, but he has to cut down on his all-or-nothing approach.

Outfielder Aaron Brown and first baseman Rhys Hoskins should contribute their college experience and power potential to the middle of the lineup.  Now that he’s a full-time hitter, maybe Brown can improve his aggressive plate approach that will be his undoing at higher levels.  NYPL stats aren’t a predictor of future performance, but it’s not often that a college player struggles here and then turns his career around later.

Their pitching staff is not as impressive.  Former first rounder Mitch Gueller is back for a second year which is never a good sign.  He’s had a lot of trouble throwing strikes, but he’s still only 20 years old.  Top picks Matt Imhof and Chris Oliver will join him in the rotation, but their innings will be closely monitored after pitching entire seasons in college.

Conversely, the Phillies’ emphasis on college players cuts two ways in regards to the GCL squad.  It means there’s either less talent there, or they have so many college players that some have to go to the GCL where they’ll dominate inferior competition.  They’re an old team, so they may be closer to the latter.

The GCL pitching staff is also pretty underwhelming.  The youngest on the staff is Venezuelan Lewis Alezones in his second year on the team.  They’re bringing him along slowly, and he doesn’t turn 19 until November.  Sam McWilliams, the Phillies’ first high school pick in the draft, joins him, and they’re going to have to bring him along slowly too.  His stuff and control are both inconsistent.  Brandon Leibrandt, an experienced starter from FSU, is also on the staff for now, but I suspect he’ll be promoted once he shows he’s completely healthy.

The offense is highlighted by two of the Phillies’ big recent signings in the international market: Jose Pujols and Luis Encarnacion.  Pujols comes back for his second year after showing off his raw power by leading the team with six home runs in 2013, and also showing off his propensity for striking out.  Encarnacion’s not off to a great start in his pro debut, but since he’s only 16 years old, I think it’s fair to cut him some slack.

The second youngest player on the roster is catcher Gregori Rivero, a less heralded signing from the Grullon/Pujols signing period.  He’s supposed to be able to hit, but the early returns to date have been underwhelming.  Also listed as a catcher is last year’s fourth rounder Jake Sweaney, but he’s only played in the outfield this year.

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Catcher

18. Sean McHugh, Purdue, Bats Right, Throws Right, 5’11 200, 22.12 Y.O.

McHugh started at Purdue as a walk-on, and he became a key player as his career wore on.  He threw out 48% of attempted base stealers, and he was second on the team in average, on-base percentage and first in slugging.  His 14 doubles and four homers led the team.

23. Joel Fisher, Michigan State, Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’3 235, 21.39 Y.O.

It didn’t take long for the Phillies to go back to the B1G for a senior catcher.  Fisher threw out 48.3% of attempted base stealers, just edging McHugh for the conference lead.  His five home runs were tied for the team lead, but he batted just .264 and struck out 40 times.

34. Scott Tomassetti, College of Southern Nevada, Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’1 195, 20.91 Y.O.

After a couple years at UNLV, Tomassetti transferred to CSN where Bryce Harper played four years ago.  He batted .299 with almost no power, but he did break his hand, and they also use wood bats there.  When he was drafted by the Phillies three years ago, he needed more work on his defense.

36. Blake Wiggins, Pulaski Academy (Arkansas), Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’1 195, 18.25 Y.O.

Wiggins had the talent to be drafted much earlier, so it’s likely that he’s headed to Arkansas.  He played third base and catcher as an amateur, and it’s not certain where he fits best.  He has nice power, but it’s only to the pull side and has to learn how to hit to right field too.  He has a strong arm that works at either position.

First Base

5. Rhys Hoskins, Sacramento State, Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’4 225, 21.21 Y.O.

Drafting a college first baseman in the middle rounds is a mixed bag.  Sometimes you get Ryan Howard, but most of the time you get Matt Rizzotti.  Hoskins showed nice power at Sac State, hitting 12 home runs and totaling 30 extra base hits.  He also walked in nearly 15% of his plate appearances.

In the Cape Cod League, he got it done with wood bats too, finishing second in the league with seven home runs.  He’s first base only, so he’s really going to have to hit to make it.

Second Base

20. Derek Campbell, California, Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’0 175, 22.93 Y.O.

Campbell bounced around the diamond in his Cal career, and he’s doing the same for Williamsport in the infield.  He wasn’t much of a hitter until 2014 when he developed an all or nothing approach.  He batted .266, right around his career average, and led the team in home runs and slugging percentage, but he also struck out in over 16% of his plate appearances.  I don’t know if that’ll work as a pro, but at least he’s versatile.

21. Tim Zier, San Diego State, Bats Right, Throws Right, 5’9 195, 22.82 Y.O.

Zier was a decent college performer for four years, but it’s not good that a college senior is only being assigned to the Gulf Coast League.  He has no power, but he owned a career .390 OBP with the Aztecs, and he showed some baserunning instincts too.

Shortstop

7. Emmanuel Marrero, Alabama State, Bats Switch, Throws Right, 6’0 180, 21.04 Y.O.

It’s a bit of a stretch to call a potential utility player a steal, but Marrero may be the best defensive shortstop in the class.  He has a strong arm for the left side of the infield, and he also has the requisite quickness and range to play up the middle.  He improved at the plate in his junior season, but he’s not going to hit for any power.  He’ll have to rely on making hard contact and finding ways to get on base.

11. Drew Stankiewicz, Arizona State, Bats Switch, Throws Right, 5’10 180, 20.95 Y.O.

Stankiewicz is kind of the quintessential college shortstop.  He’s described as a grinder everywhere, he was pretty productive, and he’ll eventually have to play second base as a professional.  He led the Sun Devils in average and was third in OBP, and he stole 13 bases in 16 attempts.  His energy will make him a nice player to have in the organization.

29. Al Molina, Red Bank Catholic HS (New Jersey), Bats Right, Throws Right, 5’11 190, 18.54 Y.O.

Some teams apparently felt Molina was a better fit on the mound, but obviously the Phillies weren’t one of them.  It seems likely that he’ll honor his commitment to Coastal Carolina where he could play two ways, but he also sounds amenable to signing if the Phillies make a good offer.

40. Jesse Berardi, Commack HS (New York), Bats Left, Throws Right, 5’10 185, 18.18 Y.O.

Every article about Berardi seems to describe how hard he plays the game.  He’s committed to St. John’s, and I’m sure he’ll end up going there.

Third Base

17. Damek Tomscha, Auburn, Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’2 220, 22.76 Y.O.

This is the fourth time Tomscha has been drafted, and the second time the Phillies have.  His power was down from his junior season to senior season, but he still led the team in home runs, OBP and slugging.  He also walked more than he struck out.  Despite the power dip, he has a track record of hitting home runs, and he has the strong arm for third base.

Outfield

3. Aaron Brown, Pepperdine, Bats Left, Throws Left, 6’2 220, 21.95 Y.O.

The Phillies choosing Brown as an outfielder rather than a pitcher may be going against the grain of consensus, but he’s still a legitimate talent.  He hit 13 home runs and 29 extra base hits, but despite hitting .314, he struck out 52 times and walked just nine.  That’s a ton of swing and miss for a good college player, and he’s going to have to improve his approach.

He’ll eventually settle in as a right fielder with his arm strength, but it’s entirely possible that by the time he reaches the majors, it’s on the mound.

10. Matt Shortall, Texas-Arlington, Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’3 215, 23.64 Y.O.

Shortall is even older than the usual college senior because he had to sit out a year after transferring from Tulane, but he was extremely productive his last two seasons at UTA.  In his last year, he was first on the team in home runs (10) and extra base hits (39) while ranking second in average and slugging.  Like Brown, his approach isn’t great with 48 strikeouts to 15 walks, but he has improved since his younger days.

14. Chase Harris, New Mexico, Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’0 195, 22.84 Y.O.

It’s hard to tell exactly how productive Harris was at New Mexico because it’s a favorable place to hit, but in two years there, Harris posted a career OBP of .402.  He played right field there, but so far for the GCL Phillies, he’s played only center field.  He doesn’t really have the power for right field, and his style of putting the ball in play (strikeout rate under 10% his last season) and getting on base fits better in center.

32. Tom Flacco, Eastern HS (New Jersey), Bats Left, Throws Right, 6’1 187, 19.58 Y.O.

Tom is the fifth and final Flacco brother to graduate high school.  Like three of the other four, he seems to be on his way to play college football rather than sign with the Phillies.  As a Quarterback, he has a scholarship from Western Michigan, and even though they do have a baseball program there, nothing mentions that he plans to continue playing more than one sport.

35. Thomas Gamble, Moorestown HS (New Jersey), Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’0 185, 18.96 Y.O.

Gamble is the son of the Eagles personnel guy, so apparently nepotistic favors in the MLB draft extend beyond baseball now.  Apparently he does have speed, and he’ll be playing baseball at Monmouth.

39. Keenan Eaton, Chaparral HS (Colorado), Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’0 195, 18.17 Y.O.

Eaton was originally committed to Vanderbilt quite early in the process, but he later switched to Wichita State because it’s not as rough on the wallet.  He has some speed, but it looks like he’s almost certainly going to school.

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They departed from their usual strategy of taking higher upside high school athletes.  I understand the frustration a lot of people may have with that approach, but I’m concerned they went too far in the opposite direction with this draft.

Aaron Nola was a good pick at the top though, and it’s important they go back to at the very least hitting on their first rounders like they did for most of the 90’s and early 00’s.

Four Year College Right-Handed Pitchers

1. Aaron Nola, Louisiana State, 6’2 200, 20.99 Y.O.

A lot of times, ‘safe’ is thrown around as a pejorative with prospects.  Nola was a safe pick, but don’t think the Phillies drafted a really low ceiling player in return for that safety.  He could be a mid-rotation starter, and soon.

He has two plus pitches in his changeup and fastball, a pitch with just average velocity that he can command to any part of the strike zone.  His slider should be an average or better pitch, and he works well low in the zone.

4. Chris Oliver, Arkansas, 6’4 185, 20.90 Y.O.

Oliver was taken a bit later than he could’ve been, likely for his DWI arrest days before the draft.

On the mound, the Phillies should try him out as a starter.  His breaking ball is a plus pitch, and his fastball could be too if he gets a little stronger.  In short bursts, he throws it in the mid-90’s, but he’s not able to sustain that over more innings.  That could lead to a move to the bullpen, but another issue is his poor changeup.  If he can’t improve that, he’ll become a reliever for sure, where he could be effective with his fastball and breaking ball.

9. Matt Hockenberry, Temple, 6’3 220, 22.75 Y.O.

Hockenberry is a senior sign to try and save money for other picks.  His Owls career was underwhelming until his senior season in the program’s final year when he struck out 71 and walked 23 in 93.1 innings, not long after he posted a 1.77 ERA in 45.2 off-season innings in the Valley Baseball League.  He throws five pitches, and Marti Wolever says his fastball is plus, but my guess is that’s an exaggeration for a senior sign from Temple.

13. Nathan Thornhill, Texas, 6’1 180, 22.68 Y.O.

To me, Thornhill is a much more interesting senior sign, provided he arrives to Clearwater with his arm intact after the Longhorns coaching staff is finished running him into the ground in the College World Series.  His fastball isn’t as hard as Hockenberry’s allegedly is, but it has movement, and he can command it.  His changeup and cutter don’t really stand out, but he throws strikes, mixes his pitches up and competes.  He’s had success at a big program in a top conference.

15. Jared Fisher, Washington, 6’4 235, 21.75 Y.O.

Fisher’s 2014 with Washington was just mediocre, striking out 60 and walking 47 in 95 innings as their Friday starter.  He signed anyway, and the Phillies will see if they can get anything out of him.  He works low in the zone with a low-90’s fastball.

16. Calvin Rayburn, Barry University, 6’5 195, 22.31 Y.O.

Statistically, Rayburn wasn’t very good with Barry, striking out 43 and walking 25 in 66.2 innings, bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen.  Maybe if he settles into one role as a professional, he can have more success.  He throws sidearm with a mid to high-80’s fastball with a lot of movement.

22. Ryan Powers, Miami University, 6’5 215, 21.41 Y.O.

Powers was actually in Baseball America’s top 500 ranking, so I’m assuming teams were told he wants to go back for his senior year.  He wasn’t great with Miami, but it was his best career season and also his first as a starter.  He throws strikes with his low-90’s fastball and developing secondary pitches, and he might hope to cash in on an improved senior season in 2015.

24. Preston Packrall, Tampa, 6’1 190, 22.63 Y.O.

On a dominant 54-4 Tampa team, Packrall improved on a dismal junior season.  He only struck out 45 in 80.2 innings, but he also walked just 15.  He was a two way player prior to joining the Spartans, and he works with a high-80’s fastball.

25. Bryan Sova, Creighton, 5’11 65, 22.83 Y.O.

Sova was an extremely successful reliever with Creighton for two seasons after transferring from Scottsdale Community College.  He pitches to contact with only 57 strikeouts in 95 innings, but he also only walked 14 batters.  His fastball is a low to mid-80’s pitch, but since he throws sidearm, it worked in college.

26. Jacques De Gruy, Furman, 6’4 200, 22.60 Y.O.

De Gruy was a bit of a prospect coming out of high school with an average fastball and slider, but after not having success at Louisiana-Lafayette and Furman, he was left to sign as a senior.  He did strike out 110 in 127 innings bouncing between the rotation and bullpen, but he also allowed 140 hits and walked 70.

Left-Handed Pitchers

2. Matt Imhof, Cal Poly, 6’5 220, 20.60 Y.O.

Imhof is a tough pitcher to peg.  Not in a draft stock kind of way; he went right around where he was supposed to.  He struck out 124 in 99.1 innings his junior season, but he owes that more to deception than good stuff.  His fastball is an average pitch floating in the high-90’s to low-90’s, but it moves in different ways to keep batters off balance.  His breaking ball is an above average pitch, and his changeup needs work.

He’s not really a tremendous strike thrower either.  He walked 43 in 99.1 innings, and he’ll need to improve on that rate as a professional.  Imhof’s ceiling looks like a back-end starter that will move somewhat quickly through the system.

6. Brandon Leibrandt, Florida State, 6’4 205, 21.46 Y.O.

Leibrandt has missed a lot of time over the last calendar year with two leg injuries, but that’s not a long-term concern.  What is a long-term concern is his lack of stuff.  He’s had a lot of success in the ACC with a fastball in the mid-80’s, and a changeup that can be an above average pitch.  He throws a lot of strikes, and he’s going to have to be proved that pitching slow and slower can work as a professional.

12. Austin Davis, Cal State Bakersfield, 6’4 245, 21.32 Y.O.

A velocity spike to the mid-90’s in fall practice had Davis rising on draft boards, but it was not sustained when the games started.  It was only his second season because he was suspended in 2013 for taking a banned substance, so his track record is short and not particularly successful.  He struck out 68 and walked 44 in 96 innings, so he’s a project.  His changeup is a potential above average pitch, and his breaking ball could be average.  Maybe the Phillies can find that lost velocity.

19. Joey Denato, Indiana, 5’10 175, 22.21 Y.O.

Denato is a pretty typical senior, left-handed college ace.  His fastball is in the mid to high-80’s, and he doesn’t have dominant secondary pitches either.  What he can do is throw strikes and mix up his pitches to keep hitters off balance.  In his senior season, he struck out 81 and walked 39 in 109 innings while posting a 1.82 ERA for one of the nation’s top teams.

27. Scott Harris, Buena Vista, 6’4 230, 21.05 Y.O.

Not much is out there on Harris.  He wasn’t good in 2013, but in 2014, he was dominant.  He struck out 81 and walked 22 in 68 innings.  The only scouting info I could find on him is he threw in the mid-80’s in high school.

High School/Junior College Pitchers

8. Sam McWilliams, Beech HS (Tennessee), 6’7 190, 18.74 Y.O.

McWilliams was only committed to Tennessee Tech, so it’s not too surprising the Phillies didn’t need long to sign their first draft pick out of high school.  He’s a major project that’s going to take a lot of time.  In addition to the usual control problems tall pitchers with violent deliveries have, his fastball velocity fluctuates a lot from the low to mid-80’s to low-90’s.  Maybe that can improve as he gets stronger, and his secondary pitches need work too.

28. Tanner Kiest, Chaffey College, 6’3 200, 19.71 Y.O.

Kiest struck out 70 in 48.1 innings for Chaffey this year, but he also walked 39.  His fastball is an average pitch at or about 90 MPH.  The strikeout to walk ratio seems to be similar to his first year of college, but the K rate is at the very least, a little interesting.

He’s committed to Central Michigan for next year, but the Chaffey athletics site says he signed.  I’m not sure if that means he signed, or an IT intern just doesn’t know drafted players don’t have to turn pro immediately.

30. Brandon Murray, Hobart HS (Indiana), 6’3 200, 18.22 Y.O.

Murray is the kind of player the Phillies love taking flyers on late in drafts.  He fell this far because teams are convinced he’s going to South Carolina, and he reiterated that after the draft.  Maybe something changes though.  His fastball sits in the low-90’s now, and he shows feel for a handful of secondary pitches.  I’m sure they’ll keep in touch, and maybe a mid-six figures bonus proves too much to turn down.

31. Shane Gonzales, Fullerton College, 6’2 200, 20.05 Y.O.

Gonzales apparently has a good changeup and a fastball that used to sit in the high-80’s with movement.  He doesn’t seem to be mentioned at all on the Fullerton baseball website, and I think he may have pitched at USC for a year.

33. James Harrington, Mesquite HS (Arizona), 6’2 165, 18.70 Y.O.

Harrington’s fastball sits in the mid to high-80’s now, and he could add to that as he gets stronger.  He already shows good feel for a changeup and mixes in a curveball.  He’s committed to New Mexico.  If the Phillies have some money to send his way on July 18th, they should give it a shot.

37. Keith Rogalla, Oak Park & River Forest HS (Illinois), 6’3 205, 18.71 Y.O.

Rogalla seems pretty certain he’s headed for Creighton.  His fastball sits in the mid to high-80’s, and he could add to that as he gets stronger.  His slider is his best secondary pitch.

38. Kollin Schrenk, Ardrey Kell HS (North Carolina), 6’3 180, 18.17 Y.O.

Schrenk is the son of GCL Phillies pitching coach Steve Schrenk.

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RHP Nick Burdi, Louisville

Another year, another season where the Phillies bullpen can’t reliably finish games.  If they do have a mandate to select players that could help in the majors soon, Burdi could be their second rounder.  Out of the bullpen, he can touch triple digits, and it’s not a flat pitch either.  His high-80’s slider is a wipeout pitch, giving him the arsenal to close.  He just has to throw enough strikes, which he’s improved on this season.  If the Phillies were a better team, he would probably be able to contribute as early as this September.

RHP Bryan Dobzanski, Delsea Regional HS (New Jersey)

The Phillies like athletes, but as a star wrestler, Dobzanski doesn’t fit the mold of the usual high school athlete.  He’s big and strong, and his low-90’s fastball should be a more consistent pitch when he’s focusing on baseball.  Because he spent much of his time on other sports, his entire game is raw, from his secondary pitches to his delivery.  It will take some time and patience, but it could pay off for the team that takes him in the third through fifth rounds.

RHP Tyler Kolek, Shepherd HS (Texas)

When I wrote about potential targets for the Phillies at #7 two weeks ago, I didn’t include Kolek because I assumed he was a top three lock.  Since then, a Baseball America mock draft had him falling to the Phillies.  I still think that’s extremely unlikely that happens, but if it does, they would be foolish to pass on him.  He may have the hardest fastball in amateur baseball history, and he has the secondary pitches to be a top of the rotation starter.

LHP Jacob Lindgren, Mississippi State

If the Phillies don’t get Burdi in the second, Lindgren could be their guy in the second or third.  He doesn’t have the same velocity, but compared to other lefties, his low to mid-90’s fastball is still above average.  His hard slider is an even better pitch, and he’s going to miss a lot of bats.  He should also rise through the minors quickly, but it’s possible they never get a shot at him if a team gets anxious at the end of the first round and wants immediate bullpen help.

RHP Josh Prevost, Seton Hall

Last year, the Phillies drafted one of Seton Hall’s starters.  This year, they could get a better one in the third to fifth rounds.  Prevost stands at a towering 6’8 with a heavy sinker that sits in the low-90’s and touches higher.  For a tall pitcher, he throws a lot of strikes.  Since his breaking ball and changeup are only average pitches, his upside isn’t super high, but in the middle rounds, he would be a nice pick and a decent bet to reach the majors at some point.

LHP Justus Sheffield, Tullahoma HS (Tennessee)

Sheffield’s brother Jordan could have been a first round pick in last year’s draft if not for elbow surgery.  Justus is healthy and should be a second rounder.  He’s a bit on the short side, but he makes up for it with a good feel for pitching.  In that respect, he should move a little quicker than most high school pitchers.  His high-80’s to low-90’s fastball is what it is at this point, but he offers three above average secondary pitches that he mixes up well.  If he’s still on the board in the second round, it won’t take long until a fortunate team scoops him up.

RHP Jake Stinnett, Maryland

Stinnett is an interesting prospect.  He’s a senior which means he should be a pretty cheap sign, but he’s relatively new to not just starting pitching, but pitching in general.  He was always a two way player, but after a lack of success at the plate, he first moved to the bullpen and then the rotation where he’s found success in one of the country’s toughest conferences.  He works with a low-90’s fastball with movement, a low-80’s breaking ball and average changeup.  He could be available in the third round, but a team hunting for a discount to have more money to spend on other picks could take him sooner.

RHP Luke Weaver, Florida State

At one point, Weaver was a likely first round pick, but some up and down results late in the season could push him back far enough to be an option in the second round for the Phillies.  His low-90’s fastball with movement and plus changeup gives him a nice pair of pitches, but his level of success is going to depend on how much his breaking ball improves.  He throws a lot of strikes, so at the very least he could be a back-end starter that moves through the minors quickly.

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