Catcher: Average

With Carlos Ruiz’s contract set to expire, and whether he finishes the season with the Phillies or not, they need a catcher of the future.  They first thought that could be Sebastian Valle, but that ship has seriously sailed.  Tommy Joseph has starter potential, but he’s only hit well enough in one out of three seasons in his career to indicate that could happen.  He’s hitting poorly again this year and is now on the DL with a concussion.  Cameron Rupp is nothing more than a backup, and recent signing Deivi Grullon is only 17 years old and far, far away from ever having an impact, if he ever does.  The point is, no player in the organization should be preventing them from taking a catcher if he’s at the top of their board.

First base: Average

It’s really hard to compare first depth because there are so few legitimate first base prospects in the minors.  Many players who will play the position in the majors are playing elsewhere right now.  Darin Ruf could provide some power, and Clearwater’s Chris Serritella was thought to have some potential from last year’s draft, but he hasn’t been good at all this season.  2013′s draft has a real rarity, a high school first baseman that will be drafted in the first round, Dominic Smith from California.  He could be available at 16th for the Phillies as one of the best bats in the draft.

Middle infield: Below average

This is a very thin spot in the system, especially at shortstop.  Roman Quinn probably won’t be able to play the position at the major league level, and that really leaves no one promising in the organization.  At second base, at least they have Cesar Hernandez in AAA who could be an average player.  There’s no star talent here, so shortstop is certainly one position to target.  If draft picks can’t stick at shortstop as professionals, they often become second or third basemen.  Targeting shortstops often provides depth at other positions in future seasons since they’re the best athletes.  The lack of depth here is one of the more concerning aspects of the system.

Third base: Above average

After over a decade of failing to develop anything at this position, the Phillies could actually have some internal options coming through.  Cody Asche will be first up despite a pretty mediocre start to the 2013 season.  Like Hernandez, his potential is really just that of an average player, but average looks pretty good compared to their recent efforts developing their own third baseman.  Perhaps the top bat in the system belongs to Maikel Franco in Clearwater.  He still has a lot of work to do with his plate approach, but he has All-Star potential.  Young players like Mitch Walding and Zach Green offer other raw options, and for once, it seems like this is not a sore spot for the organization.

Corner outfield: Below average

The big club has been lacking power for years now, and that trickles down through the organization.  There really isn’t anyone that profiles as an everyday player playing in a full-season league right now.  Maybe Larry Greene could become that kind of player.  His walk rate is impressive, but his power has not come as advertised, and it’s almost comical how much he strikes out.  Dylan Cozens could prove to be a huge power threat too, but he’s still so far away that no one can say what will happen with confidence.  Jose Pujols was a big Latino signing along with Grullon, and he has impact power too.  He’s yet to appear in a professional game though.

Center field: Average

The saving grace here is Carlos Tocci who hasn’t even been performing well in low-A, albeit as a 17 year old.  The performances of the center fielders in the upper minors, Tyson Gillies and Zach Collier, have been abysmal at best.  Neither had greater potential than average starter at best anyway, but in a season where Ben Revere is looking more like a minor leaguer than a long-term solution, it doesn’t appear they’ll be getting help anytime soon.  Aaron Altherr’s hot start has been a pleasant surprise, but his strikeout rate and high BABIP are potential red flags.  He’ll have to prove his start is for real in the coming months.  Like shortstop, center field depth is important because often times those players become good corner outfielders later in their careers.

Right-handed pitching: Below average

Even if Jonathan Pettibone wasn’t about to graduate from prospect status, they would probably still be below average.  Now that he’s essentially out of prospect discussions, Ethan Martin is the organization’s best right-handed pitching prospect, followed by Shane Watson.  Watson could very well turn out to be a great pitcher, but he’s very unproven right now.  Despite being in triple-A, it’s more likely that Martin is pitching in relief in his career rather than in the rotation.  Mitch Gueller, another 2012 first rounder, has potential too, but he’s not even pitching in Lakewood yet.  Teams can never have enough pitching depth, and the Phillies certainly need it from the right side.

Left-handed pitching: Above average

I hesitated to go above average here, but the strength of Jesse Biddle and Adam Morgan was enough.  Beyond them, the depth is almost non-existent.  Austin Wright, drafted in the same class as Morgan, has suddenly contracted Steve Blass Disease with Reading and isn’t on the map at all right now.  Fortunately, if this draft class does have a strength, it’s in high school pitching.  The Phillies will have a chance to address pitching depth from both sides in June if they choose to do so.

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Low-A 1B Art Charles, 22 (107 PA, .272 BA, .346 OBP, .478 SLG, 15 R, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 23.4 K%, 10.3 BB%)

The Phillies acquired Charles in the spring training trade that sent Michael Schwimer to Toronto, and he reached full-season ball for the first time in 2013.  At 6’6 and 220 pounds he has some raw power, but he has a lot of trouble making contact with a strikeout rate in nearly 30% of his career plate appearances.  He’s an okay defender at first base, but he doesn’t have the athleticism to play any other position.

This year, he is putting bat on ball a little more often.  His .272 average is nearly 30 points higher than his career mark, and his lower strikeout rate plus a BABIP in line with the rest of his career indicates that it might not just be about luck.  At 22 years old in his third professional season, he’s too old for this level, but his transition from short-season ball to full has been smooth so far.

Low-A C Chace Numata, 20 (92 PA, .310 BA, .359 OBP, .452 SLG, 5 R, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 6.5%, 15.2 K%)

Numata was drafted in the 14th round of the 2010 draft after playing shortstop in high school.  The Phillies thought he could work behind the plate though, and he’s been making the transition ever since.  His progress has been slow though.  He’s a raw player, and a hamate injury cost him most of the 2011 season.  He won’t turn 21 until later in the season, so he’s not any older than most players in the South Atlantic League.

His offense in 2013 has come out of nowhere.  In 84 games before 2013, Numata batted just .224 with no patience or power.  This year, the balls have been dropping in a little bit more, and he hasn’t just been a singles hitter.  He has to become a little more patient still, but strikeouts aren’t a problem either.  Behind the plate, he has a lot of work to do still, particularly when it comes to blocking pitches and keeping balls in front of him, but his caught stealing percentage has improved to 31% on the season.

High-A RF Cameron Perkins, 22 (141 PA, .361 BA, .386 OBP, .579 SLG, 21 R, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 3.5 BB%, 11.3 K%)

Perkins was a pretty solid player coming out of Purdue in last year’s draft, and he hasn’t skipped a beat moving right to Clearwater to start his first full season.  His pro debut last year with Williamsport was solid, but the advertised power from the 6’5, 195 pound third baseman wasn’t there.  He did bat over .300 though and show he wouldn’t be lost having to swing a wood bat.

Moving to right field to accommodate Maikel Franco at the hot corner, Perkins has continued to show he can put bat on ball consistently and is one of the leading hitters in minor league baseball so far.  The power has improved too, mostly in the form of doubles in the Florida State League though.  He was never a patient hitter as an amateur, and that’s continued with a pretty low professional walk rate.  When he reaches double-A, perhaps as early as this summer, pitchers are going to be able to exploit his aggressiveness.

High-A RHP Gabriel Arias, 23 (36 IP, 1.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 19.0 K%, 6.3 BB%) 

Arias once signed for $100,000, and a six digit bonus usually indicates a Latin American talent to keep an eye on.  Things never really panned out for him though, and he pitched in the Dominican Summer League for parts of four seasons before finally playing stateside in 2011.  Between Williamsport and Lakewood in 2011 and 2012, he pitched to a 3.47 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 132.1 innings, mostly in relief.

At the end of 2012, he started getting innings in the rotation, and he’s back there this season with Clearwater.  His stats have actually been better as a starter than a reliever, and he’s going to have to move quickly to make up for all the years he spent pitching in the Dominican.  Scouting wise, not much is known about Arias.  His below average strikeout rate but good walk rate would indicate his stuff isn’t overwhelming but throws a lot of strikes.  At 6’2 and 185 pounds, he’s big enough that he shouldn’t have problems with durability.

Double-A LHP Mauricio Robles, 24 (19 IP, 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 37.0 K%, 11.0 BB%)

This is Robles’ first year in the organization after signing as a minor league free agent from Seattle.  Just two years ago, he was actually the team’s #6 prospect according to Baseball America, but elbow injuries and poor performances have knocked him off.  He spent most of his career in the rotation, but at 24 and now in relief, he still has a chance to reach the majors.

Robles has pitched in triple-A before, so it’s not too surprising that he’s having success at Reading.  When he was healthy, his fastball sat in the 91-95 MPH range, and it’s not unreasonable to believe it could be back there now pitching in short bursts out of the bullpen.  He complements it with a changeup, once considered the best in the Seattle organization.  This season, his strikeout rate is through the roof, and his walk rate is much lower than it has been in a long time.  Thanks to his changeup, he’s actually been better against righties this season.  With the way the Phillies’ bullpen has performed so far this year, anyone pitching well in the upper levels of the system could get a shot.

Double-A RHP Seth Rosin, 24 (39.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 17.7 K%, 3.2 BB%)

Rosin was picked up in last summer’s Hunter Pence trade, and his transition to the upper levels of the minors has been very good so far.  Thanks to an improvement in fastball velocity in 2012 while still with the Giants, he could possibly be a number five starter, but middle relief seems like a much more likely outcome.  He first moved to the rotation last year with the Giants, and the Phillies have kept him there.

Despite the improvement in his fastball, his stuff is still average at best which limits his upside.  His breaking ball and changeup are only average pitches despite his great command.  For a 6’6, 250 pound pitcher, Rosin’s report has a couple anomalies.  He can really command his fastball when it’s unusual for bigger pitchers to have their mechanics straightened out, and his groundball rate is really unimpressive.  He’s already allowed six home runs in less than 40 innings.

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Are they ready?  Triple-A Lehigh Valley entered the season with four of the team’s top 30 prospects in the rotation, two of which already with experience at the level before 2013.  With John Lannan’s injury, it turns out that depth, Tyler Cloyd, Jonathan Pettibone, Adam Morgan and Ethan Martin, will be tested early.  The problem is, they’re mostly not performing well.  The team ERA is nearly a full run above the league average, and a lot of that rests on the shoulders of that group, with the exception of Adam Morgan.  The other three have combined to allow 33 earned runs in 36.2 innings.  Morgan is not on the 40 man roster while the other three are, and he would not be rested enough to start Monday’s game in Lannan’s spot.  They chose to go with Pettibone, even though with nine triple-A starts, probably isn’t ready for the bigs.  Pettibone started slowly last year too (4.33 ERA in April), but he’s going to have to settle in quickly now in the majors.

Starters struggling: Those pitching struggles have been in play throughout the entire system so far.  Nine starters were in Baseball America’s top 30 list prior to this season (including Ethan Stewart at 31), and only three are below their league’s respective average ERA: the aforementioned Adam Morgan, and Jesse Biddle and Brody Colvin with double-A Reading.  Morgan and Biddle’s strikeout rates indicate they’ll likely continue their good performances, while Colvin’s struggles walking more than he strikes out will probably catch up to him.  The reverse is true for 2012 first rounder Shane Watson.  His ERA is 4.76 through three starts, but with a pretty solid strikeout rate (18.8%) and low walk rate (4.4%), that ERA should drop at some point over the next few months.

Franco’s breakout: Maikel Franco was one of the organization’s best hitters in the second half last season, and that has carried over to the opening weeks of 2013.  His .914 OPS is the highest among Baseball America’s top 30 prospects in the organization, and he’s doing it in the Florida State League, far from accommodating for batters.  He has 10 extra base hits in 16 games, and his walk rate has improved from 6.9% to 9.6%, and his strikeout rate is still a reasonable 16.4%.  His batting average is up 38 points, and that will be the question for him moving forward.  If he can make enough contact to use his raw power in games, he could be the organization’s best prospect at this time next year.

Greene’s arrival: 2011 first rounder Larry Greene finally reached full-season ball over the weekend, and his first couple games were certainly unique.  He had eight plate appearances, walked three times and struck out the other five.  It took until his third game to actually put a ball in play when he both recorded a hit and an out other than a strikeout.  After watching the Phillies go a week without walking, a player who can do it like Greene is certainly welcome, but he has to hit too.  In that third game, Greene was caught stealing.  In that same game, Roman Quinn, taken right after Greene in 2011, hit his second home run of the season, a clear reversal of roles from what’s expected.  Quinn now has three professional home runs (and a fourth in an All-Star Game) in 331 career plate appearances, compared to two in 316 for Greene who has at least 60 pounds on Quinn.

Quinn’s speed: Quinn’s speed has come as advertised for Lakewood in the early going, beating out infield singles, taking extra bases and stealing eight bases, more than all but four position players in any team’s top 30 list on Baseball America.  He’ll remain at the top of that leaderboard the entire season as long as he gets on base, something he hasn’t done much so far.  His increased power has come as a pleasant surprise, but at the expense of making good contact and having good on-base skills, it’s not a good tradeoff with his speed.  Compared to 2012, his average is down nearly 40 points, he’s striking out in nearly three out of every 10 plate appearances, and his walk rate is down from 9.1% to 5.6%.  He needs to become more selective again and just put the ball in play and use his speed.

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Triple-A Lehigh Valley

Pitching: One exception to most of the potential impact talent being in the lower levels is Adam Morgan headlining the Lehigh Valley rotation.  Some sources have him as a top 100 prospect in baseball, and he’s the kind of mid-rotation talent the Phillies will need to line up behind Cole Hamels in future seasons.  The IronPigs rotation has depth too.  They’re definitely not on the same tier that Morgan is, but Jonathan Pettibone, Ethan Martin and Tyler Cloyd could all reasonably have major league roles very soon.  B.J. Rosenberg has been the fifth starter in the early going, and he’s clearly not as desirable to see as the rest of the rotation.

Five of the seven relievers on the roster have pitched in the majors, perhaps led by Michael Stutes trying to work his way back from shoulder surgery.  With the way Chad Durbin has pitched so far (and will likely continue to pitch), Stutes should get a shot at some point, and Justin De Fratus could benefit from his struggles too.  Jake Diekman and Joe Savery will very likely pitch for the Phillies at some point too, and it’s important that these young relievers pitch well.  The Phillies need some cheap pitchers in the bullpen to stop Ruben Amaro from tying up more and more of the payroll into relievers.

Infield: After Sebastian Valle spent time with the IronPigs after the Tommy Joseph trade so both could play every day, they swap positions and now Joseph is at triple-A.  He’s the fourth youngest player in the International League, and even though he’s just a step away from the majors, he needs to perform a lot better to actually merit a promotion.  In the field, Cody Asche and Cesar Hernandez offer ML potential.  Hernandez is off to a good start while Asche isn’t, but both should hit their way to the majors this year and give them some young infielders moving forward.  Shortstop will be occupied by fringe players like Pete Orr and Michael Martinez.

Outfield: The Phillies will continue the left field experiment with Darin Ruf in Lehigh Valley, and that means Tyson Gillies is going to have to cover a ton of ground in center.  Ruf’s introduction to triple-A has been solid so far, but Gillies has not found his stroke.  Leandro Castro will round out the outfield in right, and he’ll likely continue to offer ML potential that will be undermined by his desire to swing at every pitch thrown to him.

Double-A Reading

Pitching: Reading doesn’t have quite the rotation Lehigh Valley does, but they do have the top prospect in the organization, lefty Jesse Biddle.  Moving from high-A to double-A is considered to be the biggest jump in the minors, and the improvements he’s made in his secondary pitches and command are sure to be tested.  Austin Wright gives them a second top 30 lefty in the system, but he’s off to a miserable start, walking 11 batters in six innings.  The organization probably hopes Brody Colvin can still break out, but I think that ship has sailed.  Seth Rosin, acquired in the Hunter Pence trade, and David Buchanan round out the rotation with a couple fringy prospects.

Their bullpen isn’t as deep as Lehigh Valley’s, but there’s still some talent there.  Kyle Simon has been getting save opportunities in the early going, and he should make his ML debut pretty soon as a groundball specialist that can get strikeouts too.  Tyler Knigge and Jay Johnson may have some middle relief potential, and Juan Sosa was thought to have rule 5 draft potential during the off-season, but he’s already walked eight batters in 5.1 innings.  Righty Edgar Garcia is back in the organization after two years away.  At one point, he was the team’s number four prospect, but that was seven years ago, and he’s just a longshot at this point.

Infield: Manager Dusty Wathan will have a tough situation to manage behind the plate with both Cameron Rupp and Sebastian Valle vying for playing time.  Rupp could be getting the lion’s share of time behind the plate by the end of the year, but surprisingly in the early going, Valle actually has two walks to none for Rupp.  The infield is comprised entirely of org players, including Albert Cartwright who was once acquired for Sergio Escalona.  Shortstop Edgar Duran is the youngest of the bunch at 22 years old, not particularly young for double-A.

Outfield: The outfield does have a bit of potential, starting with Zach Collier in centerfield.  He still has a lot to prove after missing a lot of time in recent seasons with injuries and a suspension, and he has proved nothing in his first week and a half.  On the other hand, Anthony Hewitt is off to a hot start.  He’s done this before, and as soon as his .450 BABIP drops, his stats will be more in line with his career norms.  Ronnie Welty, acquired just before the season started for Julio Rodriguez, has fifth outfielder potential, but he’s 25 and has to get a move on if he’s going to fulfill it.

High-A Clearwater

Pitching: After 2012′s rotation featured Biddle, Morgan and Wright, the Threshers will have a rotation not nearly as good.  Ethan Stewart has some potential, but his stuff is only average, and he hasn’t thrown enough strikes with it so far in his career.  Perci Garner was once thought to be a potential number two starter, but after he struggled last year, he’s back in Clearwater at 24 years old.  He’s had two great starts so far, but since he’s repeating the league, that’s exactly what he should be doing.  Hoby Milner threw over 60 innings for Lakewood last year in a great pro debut, but he wasn’t even good as a starter in college, and he’s going to have to prove he’s a better pitcher now.

The bullpen doesn’t have much depth, but Kenny Giles is one of the top relief prospects in the system.  He’s starting the season on a DL with an oblique strain, but if he can come back healthy, he should advance through the system quickly.  Ryan O’Sullivan, acquired as the player to be named later in last summer’s Joe Blanton trade, has some middle relief potential.  He’s supposed to have solid stuff, but his strikeout rates certainly haven’t reflected that in his career.

Infield: Clearwater features a crowded infield, certainly headlined by third baseman Maikel Franco, off to a great start and keeping up the momentum from the second half of 2012.  He already has nine extra base hits on the season, and his continued breakout would be incredibly huge for the system.  There’s really nothing going on in the middle infield, but there’s some power potential at first base.  Harold Martinez will likely never reach that potential, and Chris Serritella is a long, long shot to be a prospect, simply because the bar is set so high for first base prospects.

Outfield: Aaron Altherr and Kyrell Hudson have finally reached high-A, and Kelly Dugan will be joining them once he’s off the DL.  Hudson is still extremely fast, and he’s still an extremely poor hitter.  Altherr, on the other hand, is off to a really good start, and his breakout potential is still there if he can keep it up.  One interesting name in the outfield mix is Cameron Perkins.  The 2012 sixth rounder was a solid defender at third base with a decent bat, but he had to move elsewhere to be sure Franco gets the bulk of the time at the hot corner.

Low-A Lakewood

Pitching: Lakewood has only won two games in the early going, and one of the reasons is a pretty uninteresting pitching staff.  There’s one notable exception to that, and that’s of course first rounder Shane Watson.  He’ll probably throw in the neighborhood of 130 innings, similar to Colvin and Biddle’s Lakewood debuts.  Other than him, right now there are just organizational arms or potential relievers.  Kevin Brady has a bit of potential after striking out 54 and walking just seven last year in his pro debut.

Steven Inch and Felix Santos have had solid starts out of the bullpen, but there aren’t really expectations for them moving forward as of now.  Aside from Watson, maybe the biggest story of this pitching staff is the names that aren’t here.  The two big ones are 2012 first rounder Mitch Gueller and 18 year old Franklyn Vargas.  Gueller should be up at some point, but it’s a little less clear with Vargas.  His advancement has been much anticipated for a few years now, but since he’s still so young, it’s not a big deal he hasn’t gotten to full-season ball yet.

Infield: The left side of Lakewood’s infield is what to watch here.  Roman Quinn, maybe the second fastest man in professional baseball, could steal at least bases somewhat easily as long as he keeps getting on base, and he’s proven to be pretty adept at doing that so far in his career.  Mitch Walding joins him on the left side at third base, and he’s off to another good start.  This happened last year at Williamsport last year, and he’s going to need the hits to keep dropping in this time around.  Art Charles, acquired for Michael Schwimer, and Willie Carmona will split first base.  I think Carmona can hit a little bit, but he hasn’t gotten off to a good start at all.

Outfield: The 17 year old Carlos Tocci leads the outfield, and he’s performed like a lot of 17 year olds probably would- poorly.  His game is mature for that age, but he still needs to add strength to make harder contact.  It’s a nice test for him, and I would expect him to head to Williamsport later this year.  Brian Pointer retains his sleeper status in the outfield, but in his second go-around with the BlueClaws, he needs to actually put the bat on the ball consistently to make use of his power and patience.  Larry Greene is not here due to conditioning problems, but he should be at some point.

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10. Ethan Martin, 6’2 195 RHP, 24, AA (39.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 21.3 K%, 11.0 BB%)

Strengths: Martin pitched very well after the trade deadline deal that sent Shane Victorino to the Dodgers.  That 11% walk rate was the lowest of his career, and that’s a huge positive even if it wasn’t even 40 innings.  He has great stuff, highlighted by a mid 90′s fastball with plenty of life.  He throws a pair of distinct breaking balls, the better one being a mid 80′s slider with movement similar to a cutter, followed by a solid curveball he doesn’t use often.  Martin has shown potential for a changeup.

Weaknesses: The walk rate was the best of his career, but he still needs to throw more strikes to remain in a rotation.  The root of his control and command problems is an inability to repeat his delivery and release point.  Even though he threw a career high 157.2 innings, his control issues lead to inefficient innings and early exits.  He has to improve his changeup to at least be an average pitch, but he has had success against lefties in his career.

2013 outlook: Despite the roller coaster his career has been, he has reached the upper minors and should start the season in AAA.  This will be his fifth professional season, and if he doesn’t make progress with his command, the Phillies could move him to the bullpen where he’ll join a glut of young relievers that could help improve the bullpen in coming years.

9. Cesar Hernandez, 5’10 160 2B, 23, AA/AAA, S/R (579 PA, .291/.329/.404, 13.5 K%, 5.4 BB%)

Strengths: Hernandez has a pretty solid all-around game.  His best attribute is his great bat control that always allows him to put the ball in play and not swing and miss.  He can hit line drives to all fields, and his speed helps him take advantage of balls in the gap.  Hernandez plays a really good second base, and he could probably not look awful at shortstop, but he definitely belongs on the right side of the infield.

Weaknesses: Hernandez has almost no power to speak of, and at his size, never will.  Because he can hit so many pitches, he tries to hit a lot of them and isn’t patient enough at the plate.  Despite his speed, he hasn’t been an effective basestealer and should stop trying if he doesn’t improve.  With no power and limited to second base, he’s going to have to hit for a high average and get on base to be an everyday player.

2013 outlook: When Hernandez was optioned to minor league camp this month, it’ll officially begin his last option year, meaning he’s going to have to impress in 2013 to earn a spot with the Phillies.  He struggled in his brief stint with Lehigh Valley last year, but he’ll be back in 2013 just one level away from reaching the majors.

8. Phillippe Aumont, 6’7 260 RHRP, 24, AAA/MLB (59 IP, 4.12 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 27.6 K%, 16.0 BB%)

Strengths: Aumont has closer potential with a mid to high 90′s fastball with a lot of sink. He complements it with a hard curveball that has a ton of movement.  His great stuff plays up thanks to his tremendous size that makes it feel like he’s right on top of batters when he delivers the pitch.  His lower arm angle makes things even tougher on righties, but it’s not low enough that lefties gain a significant advantage.

Weaknesses: Throwing strikes or even staying in the same zip code as the strike zone has never been a specialty of Aumont’s.  His stuff is good enough to generate swings and misses even on balls, but the pitches have to be close.  Aumont can get frustrated when he plays a position that requires a very short memory.  He has a pretty detailed injury history with back and arm issues, and the back problems may not go away for the duration of his career.

2013 outlook: After competing for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, Aumont returned to Clearwater to compete for a spot in the Phillies bullpen.  He showed enough flashes last year to be one of the frontrunners, but sending him back to Lehigh Valley and hoping he can improve his control just a little more probably wouldn’t hurt.

7. Roman Quinn, 5’10 170 SS, 20, short-season, S/R (309 PA, .281/.370/.408, 19.7 K%, 9.1 BB%)

Strengths: Quinn’s game-changing, impact speed is likely second in the minors only to Billy Hamilton.   His athleticism is apparent in the field and on the bases, and if the ball is in play, he could end up on first base.  He has an idea at the plate with a patient approach to get on base any way he can, and he’s an efficient base stealer at 83.3% in his pro debut.  He makes solid contact to all fields and should hit for a pretty good average.  Despite being new to switch hitting, he showed advanced aptitude batting left-handed.

Weaknesses: The only power Quinn will ever hit for are the doubles and triples he gets with his speed.  Although he has the athleticism and arm to play shortstop, he’s a bit clumsy and center field may be a better fit for him eventually.  He could probably stand to cut down on his strikeouts a bit despite the patient approach and feel for contact.  It’s still very early in his career, and he’ll have to prove he can keep hitting in full-season ball.

2013 outlook: Quinn will make that full-season debut for Lakewood, and I expect he’ll find success because of his mature approach at the plate.  As long as he gets on base regularly, a 100 steal season probably isn’t out of the question.  The organization is a bit thin at shortstop all of a sudden, so they should continue developing him there as long as possible.

6. Cody Asche, 6’1 180 3B, 23, high-A/AA, L/R (559 PA, .324/.369/.481, 16.6 K%, 6.1 BB%)

Strengths: After an ugly 2011 pro debut, Asche bounced back in 2012 as one of the best hitters in the system.  He has really good bat control and pitch recognition, and he can spray line drives to all fields.  He should hit for a high average and not strike out very much.  After being almost exclusively a singles hitter in Clearwater to start the year, recent adjustments to his swing have allowed him to add more power.  His defense at third base is improving.

Weaknesses: His average power could limit his upside.  Asche’s walk rate improved after his promotion to Reading, but he’s going to have to keep making hard contact on pitches out of the zone to prove his semi-aggressive plate approach works.  His defense isn’t as bad as it used to be, but he’ll never be above average.  He doesn’t have very good range, and he’s still improving throwing mechanics to take advantage of his strong arm.

2013 outlook: After taking 289 plate appearances in AA and getting 99 more in the Arizona Fall League, Asche should be starting the season in AAA, especially after a pretty lengthy stint in big league camp.  It’s hard to imagine him not making his Phillies debut at some point in the season, but that’ll be dictated by Michael Young’s play as much as if not more than his own.

5. Maikel Franco, 6’1 180 3B, 20, low-A, R/R (554 PA, .278/.334/.437, 14.4 K%, 6.9 BB%)

Strengths: Franco has everything that’s expected from a potential All-Star at the hot corner.  He broke out in the second half with Lakewood last year with an OPS over .900.  Even though he’s a bit on the small side, he’s strong.  Combined with great bat speed, he has well above average power, and he should hit for a pretty good average as well.  He doesn’t swing and miss very much.  Like Asche, he has the potential to be an adequate defender at third base, and he has a strong arm too.

Weaknesses: Franco’s not much of an athlete, adding very little if any on the bases and not having great range at third base.  He can get a bit aggressive at the plate, but he has shown the ability to wait for his pitch in the past.  He could have some problems with pitchers able to tie him up inside with velocity.  Despite the great second half, his statistics over an entire season were just okay.

2013 outlook: At just 20 years old, Franco will head up to high-A and hope to hit more consistently over the course of the season.  Clearwater is not a great place to hit for power, but he should be able to get his share of doubles still.  At just 20 years old, his development is well ahead of the average player, and if Asche doesn’t prove to be a viable everyday option for the team, Franco may not be far behind.

4. Tommy Joseph, 6’1 215 C, 21, AA, R/R (114 PA, .250/.327/.420, 28.1 K%, 7.9 BB%)

Strengths: Joseph has great raw power, especially uncommon for a catcher.  He’s strong, and his leveraged swing helps him generate power to all fields.  He has all the traits of a good defensive catcher, starting with his strong arm.  He’s thrown out 37% of attempted base stealers so far in his career, setting a career high of 40% in 2012.  For a young catcher, he’s developed a reputation for leadership behind the plate with good game calling ability.

Weaknesses: Joseph is going to have to make better contact to tap into his power in games.  His career strikeout rate isn’t through the roof, but he could certainly be more selective and try to use the whole field more often.  He’ll likely never hit for a high average, but his swing and approach aren’t in need of a total overhaul.  He’s big, and he’s still working on his receiving behind the plate.  He has to improve his handling of pitches in the dirt.

2013 outlook: Along with Valle and Rupp, the Phillies have three catchers in the upper minors.  Joseph seems likely to start the season in AAA with Valle, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Phillies work out innings behind the plate for both of them.  Joseph can play some first base, but he should get the majority of the work.  He’s had a good showing in big league camp, and the Phillies will keep that in mind when it comes to handling Carlos Ruiz in the last year of his contract.

3. Jonathan Pettibone, 6’5 200 RHSP, 22, AA/AAA (159.2 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 17.0 K%, 7.4 BB%)

Strengths: Pettibone has potential for three above average pitches, led by the best changeup in the system that he’ll throw in any count against lefties and righties alike.  His great size allows him to pitch down in the zone and generate ground balls.  He throws a lot of strikes and can generally command his pitches well all over the strike zone.  Despite missing time with an arm injury several seasons ago, he has an easy, clean delivery and should be pretty durable.

Weaknesses: Pettibone’s stuff is just okay, and he doesn’t have a pitch that can regularly miss bats which separates him from better pitching prospects.  His low 90′s fastball is just average and generally can’t overpower hitters.  His slider shows potential, but it doesn’t have the consistent movement he needs in a breaking ball.

2013 outlook: After finishing up 2012 with Lehigh Valley, Pettibone return to AAA to start 2013 and probably make his Phillies debut at some point during the year.  He doesn’t have tremendous upside, but he should be able to provide the team, reliable, cost-controlled innings in the very near future.  Behind the five major league starters and Tyler Cloyd, Pettibone be the #7 starter in the organization.

2. Adam Morgan, 6’1 195 LHSP, 23, high-A/AA (158.2 IP, 3.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 26.7 K%, 6.2 BB%)

Strengths: Morgan had one of the biggest breakout seasons in all of minor league baseball, and at least one source now has him as a top 100 prospect in baseball.  His fastball velocity has improved since his amateur days, and he now has the potential for three above average pitches.  He locates his pitches pretty well on either side of the plate.  His out pitch is a sharp slider that helped him accumulate more than a strikeout per inning in 2012.  He has a good changeup as well, and he was actually more effective against righties last year.  His delivery is as low-risk as they come, and he should be durable.

Weaknesses: Although it hasn’t really hurt him as of yet, Morgan is a bit on the short side and can leave his pitches up at times.  He’s not going to generate many ground balls, but he could be average.  Sometimes his fastball reverts to the slower, average pitch he had in college, and he needs to show that velocity consistently.

2013 outlook: Morgan could probably start 2013 back in AA for a bit with only 35.2 innings under his belt there, but he should certainly finish the season higher than that.  He’ll have to prove that the improved stuff isn’t a one year fluke, and if he does that, he might have the best combination of ceiling and lowest risk among any pitcher in the organization.

1. Jesse Biddle, 6’4 225 LHSP, 21, high-A (142.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 24.9 K%, 8.9 BB%)

Strengths: Biddle continued making nice strides in 2012, increasing his strikeout rate, decreasing his walk rate and pitching with above average fastball velocity more than he did in 2011.  He may not reach the mid-90′s like he sometimes did in high school, but with his size and delivery, the velocity could play up a bit.  He works with a couple breaking balls, but his best is a potentially plus curveball with sharp movement.  His changeup has improved in the last two years, and he uses it more often.  He works hard to improve and make adjustments.

Weaknesses: His control has gotten better, but he still needs to work on throwing more quality strikes.  Biddle’s fastball command needs to improve the most, and he has to improve the consistency of his changeup.  Although it’s not as much of a problem as it used to be, his fastball velocity can still fluctuate a bit and dip below average.

2013 outlook: With a solid arsenal and a good feel for pitching, Biddle at the very least has a pretty high floor and should reach the majors in the back of a rotation.  If he maintains an above average fastball and throws more strikes, he could certainly pitch well above that level.  For the second time in three years, he’ll be pitching reasonably close to home in Reading where he’ll really be tested.

Click here for Part 1 (30-21) or Part 2 (20-11).

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20. Sebastian Valle, 6’1 190 C, 22, AA/AAA, R/R (411 PA, .253/.271/.428, 27.7 K%, 3.2 BB%)

Strengths: Valle finished 2012 in AAA, so he’s not far away from helping the big club in some capacity.  He shows above average raw power in batting practice due to his strength and bat speed.  Behind the plate, he has the athleticism to move to block pitches when necessary, and he has a very good arm even if he’s not always able to throw out basestealers.

Weaknesses: Valle believes he can and attempts to hit every pitch and that has resulted in on-base percentages below .300 in two of the last three seasons.  Compounding his aggressive approach, he tries to pull every pitch which contributes to his high strikeout rates.  The fact that he’s made it to AAA playing like this would indicate he either doesn’t want to or can’t adjust.  His throwing mechanics can get sloppy.

2013 outlook: Valle will return to AAA in 2013 where he could be the #3 catcher on the organizational depth chart after Carlos Ruiz returns from suspension.  He could be a starting catcher, but the major weaknesses in his games will limit him to being a backup, if that.  Baseball America cites a scout that believes they should try him at third base in an attempt to get a new perspective in the batters box.  That kind of flexibility couldn’t hurt his career.

19. Kenny Giles, 6’2 188 RHRP, 22, low-A/high-A (82 IP, 3.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 30.2 K%, 13.6 BB%)

Strengths: Giles has the best fastball in the system, even if it doesn’t have the movement that Phillippe Aumont’s does.  It can touch triple digits, and his outstanding strikeout rate reflects that.  Once the Phillies moved him to the bullpen and scrapped his extra pitches, his slider improved and showed plus potential.  On the mound, he has the attitude and demeanor of a reliever, and combined with his stuff, gives him closer potential.

Weaknesses: Like a lot of hard throwing pitchers, Giles has to work on staying in control, not overthrowing and throwing strikes.  His walk rate did decrease after his promotion to Clearwater, but that was a small sample of innings and he’ll have to prove he can continue doing it.  His slider still needs to develop more.  His fastball is a pretty straight pitch, but he wasn’t particularly homer-prone in his first season.

2013 outlook: Giles is expected to start the season in AA, and if he can improve the consistency of his slider and throw more strikes, nothing should stop him from making his ML debut sometime this year.  Those are far from guarantees though, but he certainly has some of the best stuff in the organization.

18. Tyler Cloyd, 6’3 210 RHSP, 26, AA/AAA/MLB (200 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 18.2 K%, 6.1 BB%)

Strengths: Cloyd is a very smart pitcher, and he has to be with very underwhelming stuff.  He understands pitch sequencing and knows when to mix in his fastball, cutter, curveball and changeup.  He throws strikes with all of his pitches, and usually they’re quality strikes.  He’s major league ready now and has shown the ability to handle a full starter’s workload if necessary.

Weaknesses: Cloyd’s stuff is below average at best, and his margin for error is nearly non-existent.  He was hit very hard in his 30 inning stint with the Phillies at the end of the season, and his HR/9 of 2.2 is well beyond the point of unacceptable.  Righties who can’t get out of the high 80′s rarely have success, and his secondary pitches aren’t impressive either.  Despite throwing a cutter and changeup, he struggles against lefties.  On his best days, he’s only a #5 starter.

2013 outlook: Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan will be the #4 and 5 starters to start the season, so if Cloyd will go back to Lehigh Valley to stay stretched out as a starter.  With Jonathan Pettibone and Adam Morgan knocking on the door as better options than Cloyd, his starting career with the Phillies could already be just about over though.  Nevertheless, in case of an injury, he’d probably be the first man called up.

17. Darin Ruf, 6’3 220 1B/LF, 26, AA/MLB, R/R (610 PA, .318/.405/.626, 18.4 K%, 10.8 BB%)

Strengths: Ruf’s August where he hit 20 home runs would’ve gone down in baseball history had it happened in the majors.  He carried that momentum to the majors when he got the call and hit three more home runs in 33 plate appearances.  With his size and strength, it’s not a surprise that he’s able to hit all those home runs, and he makes a lot of contact too.  His plate approach is solid, and in the minors he didn’t strike out as much as the typical power hitter.

Weaknesses: Ruf is still going to have to prove he can keep hitting after teams get a second and third look at him.  He showed pretty wide right/left splits in the minors which could indicate a future platoon player, but he was still adequate against righties.  In his brief stint with the Phillies to finish the year, he struck out way too much and wasn’t as patient as he was in the minors, although he did still see over four pitches per plate appearance.  He is far from an athlete and will certainly need a defensive replacement late in games if they plan on using him in the outfield.

2013 outlook: Ruf battled for a spot on the bench in spring training and was optioned to AAA despite his competition setting the bar pretty low.  His power will be useful in any capacity.  His defense in left field is not good at all, but aside from a weaker arm, he probably provides the same value as Delmon Young.  I’ve never been particularly high on Ruf, but the evidence that he can be a capable major leaguer is piling up and getting harder to ignore.

16. Tyson Gillies, 6’2 190 CF, 24, AA, L/R (311 PA, .304/.369/.453, 16.7 K%, 5.8 BB%)

Strengths: For the first time since coming over in the Cliff Lee trade, Gillies was somewhat healthy in 2012.  Not counting rehab appearances, he had only accumulated 113 plate appearances in his first two years in the organization, and he managed to put in a half season’s worth of 311 in 2012.  In those plate appearances, he showed flashes of the player he’s supposed to be.  He batted over .300, showed modest power and played great defense in center field.  Along with his on-base abilities, he has the potential to start every day, but the Phillies would just be happy if he was on the field most days at this point.

Weaknesses: Even in his “healthy” year, Gillies only played about half a season.  He supplemented that with a stint in a winter league, but the lost development time is enormous.  Constant leg injuries may also affect his speed, obviously a huge part of his game.  In his last healthy season of 2009, he attempted 63 steals in 124 games, or over half an attempt per game.  With Reading in 2012, he attempted just 14 in 68 games, getting caught in six of them no less.  His walk rate also declined from previous seasons, and if he’s not as fast as he used to be, walking to get on base becomes even more important.  His makeup came into question last year when an incident with a bus driver led to a brief suspension.

2013 outlook: Gillies will finally reach AAA to start the season, and if Ben Revere were to get injured, he could be an option for the Phillies if they don’t want to play John Mayberry Jr. in center every day. Even if his OPS isn’t quite as high as .822 in 2013, it would be great if he could just play enough to get 550-600 plate appearances and stay in the lineup all season.  He has a chance to be an everyday player, but with the injuries, it’s more likely that he tops out as a fourth outfielder.

15. Andrew Pullin, 6’0 185 COF/2B, 19, rookie, L/R (160 PA, .321/.403/.436, 20.0 K%, 7.5 BB%)

Strengths: Pullin has a solid all-around game, and he got his career off to a good start in the GCL.  He has good bat speed and control, and he should be able to put the ball in play pretty consistently.  His plate approach is pretty advanced for a high school bat.  Right now he has a line drive swing, but he could develop average power down the road.  The Phillies recently moved him to second base, and he could have enough athleticism to play it.

Weaknesses: Pullin is still a long way away despite his comparatively polished bat.  None of his tools really stand out, but he’s okay in all areas.  While he has looked good early at second base, he probably still has a lot of work to do at the position.  Left field is a good fallback option though, but it’s going to be even more important for him to develop more power if he has to go back to the outfield.  He’s not very athletic.

2013 outlook: His advanced game could have him in Lakewood to start the year depending on performance in camp and other players around that level.  That’s not an unusual step for the Phillies to take with younger players, but they did not with some of their top high school bats from the 2011 draft.  If not, he’ll join Williamsport when their season starts and likely fare well there.

14. Mitch Gueller, 6’3 205 RHSP, 19, rookie (27.1 IP, 5.27 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 16.2 K%, 10.3 BB%)

Strengths: The second of the Phillies’ two first rounders last June, Gueller comes from the Pacific Northwest, a region that they’ve mined more than anyone else in recent years with the possible exception of the Rays.  He looks the part of a top pitching prospect with his size and athleticism, and he could improve the consistency on his low-90′s fastball as he gets stronger.  He’s shown flashes of a quality breaking ball and changeup.

Weaknesses: Gueller is still very far away from ever contributing to the Phillies.  This will be the first time in his career focusing on pitching (and baseball in general), so he’s very raw.  His breaking ball is unrefined and slurvy and has to tighten up.  He has to improve on the consistency of his changeup too, but he’s shown flashes of doing so.  His brief pro debut last year shows he needs to improve his control.

2013 outlook: Gueller could start 2013 in Lakewood, but he’s not so advanced for a high school pitcher that it’s a guarantee.  They probably have enough arms to fill their rotation without him.  It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for the Phillies to take it slowly with him as he becomes a pitcher full-time.

13. Carlos Tocci, 6’2 160 CF, 17, rookie, R/R (107 PA, .278/.330/.299, 16.8 K%, 5.6 BB%)

Strengths: The Phillies typically don’t spend big in Latin America, but they did so for Tocci.  He has great speed that helps him on the bases, and he has the range and arm to be a Gold Glove candidate should he reach the majors.  He has impressive instincts even though he was the youngest player in the Gulf Coast League last year, and he stole nine bases in 11 attempts in his pro debut.  He could hit for a high average with great bat control and knowledge of the strike zone.

Weaknesses: Despite the advanced instincts, he’s still a young Latin American player who has a lot of work to do.  He doesn’t have power and may never get it.  He obviously has a skinny frame at 6’2 and 160 pounds, and he might not get any bigger.  He has to refine his plate approach and stay patient to help his on-base skills to take advantage of his speed.  GCL stats rarely indicate anything, so expectations should be held in check for now.

2013 outlook: It wouldn’t be unusual for Tocci to debut with Lakewood on Opening Day.  The Phillies have made that jump with Valle and Domingo Santana among others in the past, but both it always seems to end up resulting in a trip to Williamsport when short-season ball starts.  Either way, he’s still very young and staying back in extended spring training would be okay.

12. Justin De Fratus, 6’4 220 RHRP, 25, AAA/MLB (32.2 IP, 2.78 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 24.0 K%, 6.4 BB%)

Strengths: De Fratus has a nice two pitch mix with a fastball that can reach the mid 90′s and a slider that’s improved every year.  Throughout most of his minor league career, he’s had both outstanding control and the ability to strike batters out.  He’s competitive and has the mentality to pitch in the late innings of games.  He can pitch the low in the zone and keep the ball in the park, always important at Citizens Bank Park.

Weaknesses: Poised to earn a spot in the Phillies’ bullpen in 2012, De Fratus had nearly a lost season thanks to elbow injuries.  He seems to be healthy now, but that can always be concerning for pitchers.  Occasionally, he’ll fall in love with his slider and needs to remember to use his fastball more often.  His slider is an above average to plus pitch, but his upside is that of a set-up man and not a closer.

2013 outlook: De Fratus had a pretty rough spring with the Phillies, and he’ll be starting the season in AAA.  He had uncharacteristically poor control and couldn’t put batters away, but it was only nine innings.  Teams always use more than seven relievers in a season, so he’ll be back up in the majors at some point if he’s healthy, and maybe this time for good.

11. Shane Watson, 6’4 200 RHP, 19, rookie (7 IP, 1.29 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 29.6 K%, 3.7 BB%)

Strengths: Watson has two of the most important qualities a pitching prospect can have: fastball velocity and a really good breaking ball.  Those two pitches can get a pitcher a long way in professional baseball, and with his size, he could probably add a few ticks to his low 90′s fastball.  He has an aggressive demeanor on the mound and really goes after hitters.  He’s tried a variety of options looking for a third pitch.

Weaknesses: Watson’s pro debut was abbreviated after an illness led to the discovery that he has diabetes.  That shouldn’t be an issue at this point.  Cleaning up his delivery further could help him improve his command and control, but that’s pretty standard for high school pitchers.  That also goes for a lack of a third pitch.  He’s experimented with a changeup, cutter and splitter, all of which would help him get lefties out.

2013 outlook: Because of the missed time after signing last year, Watson may not be able to start in Lakewood, but he should certainly be there at some point during the season.  Obviously he’s still very far away from making an impact with the Phillies, but his abilities warrant keeping an eye on for sure.

Click here for Part 1 (30-21) or Part 3 (10-1).

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30. Aaron Altherr, 6’5 190 CF, low-A, 22, bats right/throws right (471 PA, .252/.319/.402, 21.7 K%, 8.1 BB%)

Strengths: Altherr remains a great athlete, playing a quality center field despite his size.  Not only is he fast, he’s a smart baserunner that owns a stolen base percentage just over 80% in his career.  He has a short stroke that can produce line drives to all fields, and with his size, he could eventually hit for average power.  In his second season at Lakewood, he cut down on his strikeouts and improved his walk rate.  Although he’s hardly played right field in his career, his arm is good enough to play there if necessary.

Weaknesses: Altherr is still very raw, an his tools haven’t translated into baseball production enough.  His .722 OPS in 2012 was a clear rebound from 2011, but it was his second season at Lakewood, and he no longer has the advantage of being younger than most at his level.  Despite his short swing, he swings and misses far too much and has to become more selective at the plate.  If he fills out a little more and loses some athleticism, he might not have the power to profile in a corner outfield spot.

2013 outlook: Altherr will move up to high-A for 2013, and he’s going to have to adjust to the new level quicker than he did when he first got to low-A.  Along with Kelly Dugan, Clearwater will have a pair of 22 year old outfielders that still have a lot to prove.

29. Leandro Castro, 5’11 175 COF, AA, 24, R/R (511 PA, .287/.316/.427, 13.7 K%, 3.3 BB%)

Strengths: Castro plays with a lot of energy in all aspects of the game.  Despite a pretty long swing with a dramatic follow-through reminiscent of Juan Uribe’s, he usually gets his bat on the ball with a career .277 average and strikeout rate around 15%.  With that swing, if he guesses correctly, he can tap into his plus raw power, and that’s especially true if he gets a fastball.  In the outfield, he has the arm to play right field and the athleticism to occasionally play center, but he shouldn’t be there often.

Weaknesses: With a hyper-aggressive plate approach, Castro is his own worst enemy at the plate and makes a lot of outs.  His career walk rate is a shade under 5%, and it was even worse in 2012 as seen above.  He doesn’t hit to right field, and it’s not too hard to get him out with offspeed pitches.  He’s athletic enough to steal a base or two, but he’s so inefficient doing so he probably shouldn’t.  Aside from his arm, he’s just an okay fielder.

2013 outlook: After having a solid season in AA, he was not added to the 40 man roster nor was he taken in the rule 5 draft, which is telling.  He’s not a future everyday player, but he has the chance to be a 4th or 5th outfielder with a little pop.  He’ll move up to AAA in 2013 to try and show that his bat is good enough to earn a trip to the majors.

28. Cameron Rupp, 6’1 240 C, 24, high-A, R/R (390 PA, .267/.345/.424, 19.7 K%, 10.3 BB%)

Strengths: Rupp got into better shape in 2012, and there’s now no doubt that he can play major league defense behind the plate.  The Phillies feel he handles his pitching staffs very well, and he’s got a strong arm that has allowed him to throw out over 33% of attempted base stealers the last two seasons.  With his strength, he hits for above average power.  He cut down on his strikeouts in 2012 and has an above average walk rate.

Weaknesses: Although he cut down on those strikeouts, Rupp will never hit for a high average.  As a catcher, he’s not an athlete at all, but he can still move well enough behind the plate.  Although his .770 OPS was well above average for the Florida State League, he was also a year older than the league average player which may have factored into his success.

2013 outlook: Rupp will move up one more level to AA and continue handling pitchers like Jesse Biddle.  Like Castro, his upside isn’t very high, but his power, arm strength and leadership should help him earn a spot in the bigs at some point.  Along with Tommy Joseph and Sebastian Valle, there are three catchers who should be starting across AA and AAA, creating a bit of a logjam at the position.

27. Dylan Cozens, 6’6 235 COF, 19, rookie, L/L (183 PA, .255/.341/.441, 24 K%, 11.5 BB%)

Strengths: Well, his strength.  With his size, Cozens can generate power to all fields and was an accomplished home run hitter as an amateur.  Although he only hit .255 in limited action after being drafted, he’s shown he can make adjustments to his swing to better handle pro pitching.  His arm is strong enough to play right field if his athleticism allows it.  For his size, he can run a bit, giving him a chance to stay in the outfield.

Weaknesses: Makeup questions swirled around Cozens after he was reportedly kicked off his first high school team due to an altercation with a coach.  The Phillies seem to have done their homework though, and they believe he’s a hard worker.  He’s going to have to prove he can hit for a better average, and he can start by cutting down on his strikeouts and getting the ball in play more.  If he gets bigger and has to move to 1st base, his bat will have to carry him up the ladder.

2013 outlook: With a number of other corner outfielders around this level, Cozens could stay back in extended spring training to start the year and then report to Williamsport in June.  He had a pretty nice pro debut for not being particularly heralded entering the draft, but it’ll still be a while before we know what kind of player he can be.

26. Larry Greene, 6’0 235 COF, 20, short-season, L/R (303 PA, .272/.373/.381, 25.7 K%, 13.5 BB%)

Strengths: Greene has the size and strength to have impact power.  He’s shown he’s able to be patient and wait for his pitch which will be key for tapping into that raw power in games as he gets more experienced.  He has the athleticism to stay in the outfield as long as he works hard to stay in shape.

Weaknesses: Staying in shape was difficult for Greene in his first pro season, and he needs to be more prepared to enter the 2013 season.  He’s never going to be a great athlete, but he can stay in the outfield as long as he’s in shape.  Despite his nice batting average in professional debut,  there are questions about his bat speed which could warrant swing adjustments in future seasons.  He’ll need to cut down on his strikeouts and show more in-game power.

2013 outlook: Greene will get his first taste of full-season ball with Lakewood with much to improve on.  Lakewood is a little friendlier for power hitters than Williamsport, and it’ll be up to him to show he’s not just a singles hitter.  His pro debut was disappointing, but if he’s prepared for a full professional season this time around, he can improve his stock.

25. Zach Green, 6’3 185 3B, 19, rookie, R/R (183 PA, .284/.333/.426, 23.5 K%, 4.4 BB%)

Strengths: Green adjusted quickly to professional ball after being drafted in the 3rd round last year.  Like Mitch Walding, he moved from shortstop right to third base where has the arm strength to succeed.  He has the size to add strength and power as he gets older.  He has shown flashes of a short swing with good bat speed in the past.  His work ethic, hard-nosed style and leadership will help him take advantage of his abilities.

Weaknesses: His swing can get a bit long sometimes, and he needs to be quicker to the ball more often. Green will have to work on his plate approach, both cutting down on his strikeouts and being more patient.  He’s not much of an athlete, but he’s athletic enough to play third base.  He still has to adjust to third base and cut down on his errors, but he has the skills to improve.

2013 outlook: With Walding and Cameron Perkins ticketed for Lakewood already, Green will likely be held back in extended spring training to start the year and eventually report to Williamsport.  He’ll have plenty of time to work on his defense and refine his plate approach before seeing more game action in June.

24. Kyle Simon, 6’5 223 RHRP, 22, high-A/AA (39.2 IP, 1.36 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 23.8 K%, 4.1 BB%)

Strengths: After moving to the bullpen following the trade that brought him to the organization, Simon broke out.  He’s a ground ball machine with a low-90′s sinker that induces ground balls on over 60% of balls in play against him.  He’s also thrown a lot more strikes since moving to a relief role, and his strikeout rate has picked up as a result, assisted by a lower arm slot that creates deception.

Weaknesses: No longer a starter, Simon’s upside isn’t very high.  His stuff isn’t overwhelming enough to pitch regularly in the late innings, and his secondary pitches need work, particularly his changeup.  Despite all of his success, he was not very effective against lefties which could limit his usage in the majors.

2013 outlook: Simon will probably move up to AAA to start the year, and he has a chance to make the majors at some point during the season.  He’s a middle reliever at best, but his ability to get groundouts can be a valuable skill coming out of the bullpen.  If he can’t find a second pitch, it would probably be best if he doesn’t face left handed batters.

23. Zach Collier, 6’2 185 OF, 22, high-A, L/L (319 PA, .269/.333/.399, 18.8 K%, 8.2 BB%)

Strengths: Collier resuscitated his career after his PED suspension ended in 2012.  It culminated in a good Arizona Fall League campaign where he hit .371/.461/.532, earning a spot on the 40 man roster.  He could have four average or better tools, starting with his athleticism that helps him on the bases and play a good center field.  Despite the low batting averages in his career, he has good bat speed and should be able to get the ball in play regularly.  He’s patient enough to wait for his pitch, but he should cut down on the strikeouts a little.

Weaknesses: His tools are still impressive like they were when they drafted him in the first round five years ago, but his performance eventually has to match those tools.  Between the injuries and his suspension, his career has been subject to almost constant interruptions, and that lost developmental time hurts.  He’s trying to adjust his swing to add more power, but that’ll never be a big part of his game.  His arm isn’t anything special, but it’s good enough to play in the outfield.

2013 outlook: Somehow, despite all the setbacks in his career, he’s advancing to AA.  He was young when he was drafted, so he’ll still be age appropriate for the league.  He’ll need to show that he can translate his tools into game success, and it’s possible that his AFL season was a start to doing just that.  It’s not very likely that his ceiling is that of an everyday player, but because of all the disruptions to his career, he may still have room to grow.

22. Kelly Dugan, 6’3 195 COF, 22, low-A, L/R (496 PA, .300/.387/.470, 24.6 K%, 9.7 BB%)

Strengths: Dugan was finally healthy for a change, and he had a career year.  He showed some of the power the Phillies were expecting when they drafted him, hitting 12 of his career 15 home runs.  He batted .300 on the nose and has made pretty consistent contact throughout his career.  His plate approach has been pretty patient throughout his career, but he was a bit strikeout prone despite the success in 2012.  After playing first base as an amateur, he’s shown he has the range and arm to try the outfield.

Weaknesses: Since he’s not much of an athlete, all of Dugan’s value rests with his bat.  His defense could be average but likely not much more.  He’ll have to prove that 2012 was no fluke by displaying the power he showed for a second straight year, and it’ll be in an environment not conducive to power hitting.  Staying healthy and getting on the field on a consistent basis is another important goal in 2013.

2013 outlook: With a short track record of success, I’d like to see another season like this before moving him higher on the list.  With his average athleticism and injury history, consistently playing in the outfield could be dicey.  He used to switch hit, but he only bats from the left side now where he can still do okay against lefties.  Because of his slow progress, his age will just be average at high-A in 2013.

21. Austin Wright, 6’3 220 LHSP, 23, high-A (147.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 20.7 K%, 9.3 BB%)

Strengths: Despite only being the third best starter on Clearwater’s staff, Wright was named Florida State League Pitcher of the Year.  That’s not to say he’s not a prospect though.  His curveball is a plus pitch, and his low 90′s fastball gives him two important building blocks toward reaching the majors.  He has the big, durable frame to be a workhorse starter and can work at the bottom of the strike zone.

Weaknesses: Wright needs to throw more strikes.  His walk rate isn’t horrible, but he can get wild at times and needs to improve his command.  His changeup could use more consistency, and if he can improve that, he’s sure to be a starter rather than late inning reliever.  Because of the inconsistent changeup, he was very hittable against righties.

2013 outlook: He fell behind fellow 2011 draftee Adam Morgan in their first full professional seasons, but Wright still had a good season.  He’ll be up to AA to start the season, and from there he’s not too far from the majors.  Like Morgan, he’s clearly better than he was as an amateur, and the scouting and development staffs deserve credit for seeing the potential.

Click here for Part 2 (20-11) or Part 3 (10-1).

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Scott Grauer writes for PSC and Bus Leagues Baseball – check him out!

Phillies pitching prospect Philippe Aumont

Even though they’re coming off their worst season since 2002, the Phillies probably don’t have any interesting battles going on in spring training this year barring injury.  The catchers, infield and starting rotation  are set in stone, and it’s probably safe to say that about half the  bullpen too.  That leaves some spots on the bench, but even still there  probably won’t be any surprises.  Ben Revere will certainly be in  center, and some combination of Delmon Young, John Mayberry, Laynce Nix, Domonic Brown or Darin Ruf.

By my count, there are 26 players in big league camp that still have prospect eligibility going by Baseball America’s standards; 17 are on  the 40 man roster, and nine are non-roster invitees.  Some of them are  relievers who fans are already very familiar with but take a while to  accumulate 50 innings to lose eligibility, and some are players like Steven Lerud who will probably never have 130 ML at-bats.  Here are the notable  players among the 26 that will be competing for jobs or doing so in the  near future.

Right-Handed Pitching

Phillippe Aumont (40) Stuff-wise, Aumont should be one of the frontrunners for one of the remaining middle relief spots.  As always with him, it’s going to come down to  command.  His fastball and breaking ball move enough that he just has to get pitches close to the strike zone to induce swings and misses, but  his 13.9% walk rate with the Phillies last year was well above the league average of 9.1%.  It’s difficult to trust relievers that miss the strike zone that much.  He’ll soon depart camp to join Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, a big stage he  made quite an impression on four years ago.

Tyler Cloyd (40) Unless a starter gets hurt, Cloyd will either head north with the team as the long reliever or with Lehigh Valley to continue starting.  His 4.91 ERA in 33 innings with the Phillies last year was unimpressive, but that was partly fueled by an absurdly high 17% HR/FB rate, something that will certainly come down as he pitches more  innings.  That’s not to say his stuff is good or he could ever be more  than a #5 starter, but there were some positive indicators last season.

Justin De Fratus (40) The 2012 season was almost entirely lost for De Fratus, but with a good spring he could break camp with the Phillies.  In the minors, he always did a good job throwing strikes, and that reliability could have the team choose him over Aumont even if his stuff isn’t as good.  B.J. Rosenberg has more big league experience, but I would bet on De Fratus beating him out.

Ethan Martin (40) Martin will probably head across the complex to minor  league camp not soon after it begins, but the fact that he’s even on a  40 man roster and in big league camp is impressive after some of the  seasons he had in the Dodgers organization.  He’ll start the year in  AAA, but unless the Phillies are hammered by injuries, there’s no reason to expect him to start a  game in the majors this year.  If he does make it to Citizens Bank Park  in 2013, it’ll be because they moved him to the bullpen.

Jonathan Pettibone (40) Like Martin, Pettibone will have a short stay in ML camp, but he will be higher than Martin on the depth chart if a new starter is ever needed.  Pettibone already has quite a bit of AAA experience, and his polished, strike  throwing style won’t make a promotion a difficult transition.  Right  now, I’d say he’s the #7 starter in the organization (behind Cloyd), but that could always change if they decide they really like Aaron Cook or Rodrigo Lopez, but that would be silly.

J.C. Ramirez (NRI) While Aumont and Tyson Gillies are attempting to salvage some value from the Cliff  Lee trade, Ramirez has mostly pitched himself into irrelevancy.  He was  designated for assignment during the off-season but remains with the  organization after going unclaimed.  His 40 innings with Lehigh Valley weren’t horrible, but becoming a regular in the majors is still a long shot.

B.J. Rosenberg (40) There isn’t much to say about Rosenberg.  I was actually writing about him and Michael Schwimer at the time of the trade, so that saves me a little work.  Rosenberg’s  fastball is good enough to put up a nice strikeout rate, but he’s  probably not going to develop a second pitch good enough to pitch in the majors consistently.  A good spring could still place him in the  Phillies’ bullpen to start the year though.

Kyle Simon (NRI) Simon likely doesn’t have a chance to make the Phillies out of spring training, but this time will allow the team to gauge how  close he is to being ready for the majors.  His sinker is good enough to make him one of the better ground ball specialists in the league, and  he collects his fair share of strikeouts too.  He should pitch in the  majors at some point this year.

Left-Handed Pitching

Jake Diekman, Jeremy Horst and Joe Savery (40) Phillies fans have already seen plenty of this trio, and Diekman and Horst are very close to the 50 inning plateau to lose prospect  status.  Assuming the team wants to have a second lefty in the bullpen  in addition to Antonio Bastardo, I would say Horst is the frontrunner after a very good 2012 season where he limited lefties to a .441 OPS.  He was able to get righties out too, something that distinguishes him from Diekman.

Adam Morgan (NRI) Morgan has flown through the system since being drafted in the 3rd  round of the 2011 draft.  Like Martin, he’ll probably only make his ML  debut this year if a lot goes wrong, but he’s knocking on the door.   This time two years ago, he was facing batters from South Alabama and  Southeastern Louisiana, and now he’s a quality arm that could help the Phillies very soon.

Catcher

Tommy Joseph (NRI) Joseph will be off to minor league camp when it opens, but for now he  can get valuable experience catching the ML pitching staff.  An ML debut this year seems very unlikely; he’s not particularly close to being  ready, and there are probably four catchers ahead of him on the depth  chart anyway.

Sebastian Valle (40) Joseph is a better  prospect, but this will be Valle’s second big league camp.  At this  point, it seems like he is what he is at the plate and will always swing far too aggressively.  He can still add value with his defense, so like Joseph, getting this time to get familiar with the big league pitchers  is good for his development.  He should make his ML debut sometime this  year.

Infield

Cody Asche (NRI) If Asche can come close to replicating his breakout 2012 campaign, he could  finish this year as the Phillies’ starting third baseman.  Not only did  he make a seamless transition from high-A to AA last year, he actually  performed better with more power and a better walk rate.  His ceiling is only that of an average everyday player, but with the state of the hot  corner since the team traded Scott Rolen 11 years ago, that would be a very welcome addition.

Cesar Hernandez (40) He only has 579 plate appearances above high-A, but this is actually his third time in big league camp and last year of  options.  This leaves them little time to evaluate if he’s an option for the organization moving forward if Chase Utley is no longer a Phillie after this year.  They need power though, and  that’s certainly one area where he can never match even present-day Utley.

Outfield

Zach Collier (40) Collier will be in big league camp by virtue of being on  the 40 man roster, and that should provide good experience for the 2008  first round pick.  He’s still not very close to the majors, so his stay  won’t last long.  Players who have never played over high-A aren’t  participants in ML spring training very often, but he’s one of them.

Tyson Gillies (40) If the Phillies want a true center fielder on the roster besides Revere, Gillies has a  non-zero chance of making the club, but it’s not higher than that.  He  only has 311 plate appearances in AA, so the Phillies may just stick it out with Mayberry as the CF backup while Gillies gets more experience.  That’s if he’s  able to stay on the field.  If he does, he will play in Philadelphia at  some point in 2013.

Ender Inciarte (40) If the Phillies really want a true center fielder on the roster besides Revere and want Gillies to get more experience, they could try to keep Inciarte around for the season.  The rule 5 pick wouldn’t hit, but he sure can  run and catch.  I expect him to be returned to Arizona, but as I always  say with rule 5 picks now, if Michael Martinez can stick, anyone can.

Darin Ruf (40) Ruf was the breakout star of 2012 in the organization, and he should be  given every chance to make the club out of spring training despite the  presence of the redundant Delmon Young.  His defense won’t be good and may not have a ton of upside, but Young will do nothing but take away plate appearances from Brown and Ruf’s development.  Because of Young’s injury, it would be a surprise if Ruf wasn’t on the Phillies roster on Opening Day.

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Scott Grauer writes for PSC and Bus Leagues Baseball – check him out!