Phils Baseball | Blog for Phillies Fans

Polanco's base running blunder says it all

Thu, 24 May 2012 00:23:00 GMT

Polanco's base running blunder says it all
by Scott Butler 5/22/12

Urrgghh! It’s a moment where throwing an object through your television, banging your head against the wall, and pulling out your hair are all enticing options. That moment occurred with no outs in the sixth inning last night when Polanco remained standing on the third base bag. Polanco was the recipient of a quite a few expletives in my living room and I'm sure I was not alone. Polanco not scoring on Pence’s fly ball in the sixth inning is INEXCUSABLE. Sorry, but there is no excuse for not scoring on that play.

For those of you who didn't see it, the Phillies had runners at second and third when Pence hit a fly ball to center field in which Ankiel made a diving catch. That hit scores a run 99 out of 100 times, but this was that one other time. There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON he shouldn’t score on that play. As soon as ball hits bat, Polanco’s first movement MUST be towards third base. If the ball drops, he scores. If the ball is caught, he tags and still scores. Not one single outcome should involve continuing his conversation with Juan Samuel for one more at-bat.

I’m not here to dump on Polanco. Everyone is entitled to a mental mistake here and there, and Polanco does not make a habit of it like most of his teammates. And to his credit, he was quick to own up to it. “It wasn’t the right way,” the third baseman said. “You have to be closer to the bag and do it right.”

The frightening aspect is that amidst their obvious struggles knocking in runners in scoring position with less than two outs, how on earth is Polanco’s first thought not to tag? When Polly’s head isn’t in the game, the Phillies are in big trouble.

And the problem does not begin and end with Placido Polanco. Ohhh, far from it.

Polanco’s lack of focus is symptomatic of a team that is not ready to play and certainly not ready to win another World Series. How hard is it to hit a ground ball to second base? A fly ball to center field? To tag up on a sac fly? To not run when an infield fly pop up is dropped? Those are just a few of the mishaps we have seen in the last couple of weeks.

The Phillies rank dead last with a 37% success rate with runners in scoring position. Unfortunately, this is not a new issue. The same exact problems have been occurring since 2007, but they now are followed up by fewer and fewer home runs. “Not getting hits with runners in scoring position,” Jimmy Rollins said. “Not driving guys in from third with less than two outs. All those things that are showing up that in the past it seemed like we were able to get away with. We’ll do it next time. We’re not getting that next time anymore.”

"I think we don't have the big bats like Chase and Howard, so it's important, but even if we did have them, it's still important," third baseman Placido Polanco said.

With the Phillies dominant starting staff, those one or two runs they have been leaving on the base paths will be enough to win a lot of ball games. Charlie is not asking for three run home runs, two run doubles, or even two out hits in many cases. All he needs is some weak grounders to short and routine fly balls.

But that has not happened 63% of the time. It comes down to what Charlie mentioned. "If you're going to scream small ball or little ball," Manuel said, "we have to score those kinds of runs."

The Phillies are not scoring those runs, they are in last place, and if they keep it up that's where they might finish. OK?

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Time to move Rollins down in the lineup

Wed, 16 May 2012 06:28:00 GMT

Time to move Rollins down in the lineup
by Scott Butler 5/15/12

The time has come to move Jimmy Rollins down in the lineup. Rollins is statistically the second best defensive shortstop in Major League history, he is the longest tenured athlete in Philadelphia, his leadership helped bring five straight division championships, and he was instrumental in winning the 2008 World Series.

That’s nice. Now move Jimmy Rollins down to the bottom of the lineup.

I’ve heard enough of the Jimmy Rollins is a sparkplug jibber jabber. J-Roll cannot be a sparkplug when he is hitting .225, he just can’t. He isn’t getting hits, he doesn’t walk, he has no power, and now has just above average speed, so he needs to leave the top of the lineup and he needs to leave fast.

Yeah, I know, if Charlie moves Jimmy down in the lineup he is going to mope and hurt the team more. Is that even possible? Rollins can’t possibly hurt us more than he is right now with a .273 on base percentage in the leadoff spot. If Jimmy wants to mope, so be it. Freddy Galvis, a clear offensive liability and a player who everyone on the Phillies staff will admit is not ready to hit in the Major Leagues, is hitting better than Jimmy Rollins.

Charlie can’t afford to continue inserting an automatic out at the top of the lineup card. Juan Pierre makes the decision much easier for Charlie Manuel. Pierre has been hitting well and is better suited to the top spot, so move him to the top spot for the time being. If Jimmy is any bit the leader he professes to be, he would contentedly acquiesce to the move as an opporunity to get his stroke back.

It doesn't have to be a permanent move, but that is up to Jimmy. If he wants to pout, the Phillies have an equally effective replacement in Freddy Galvis who might be better defensively than Rollins at this stage. Charlie would probably never let that happen, but maybe the threat of Galvis is enough to push Rollins to improve his game.

Jimmy, be a leader and show everyone that you are willing to do whatever it takes to help the team win.

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The Phillies according to John Kincade

Tue, 15 May 2012 02:53:00 GMT

The Phillies according to John Kincade
by Scott Butler 5/13/12

We hold on tight to our local success stories in Philadelphia. Represent Philly well and fans love you, turn your back on Philly and they destroy you. It’s the reason a statue of a fictitious boxer stood in front of the Philadelphia Art Museum steps, it’s the reason East River Drive was renamed after a movie star, and it’s the reason fans despise JD Drew, Scott Rolen, and Kobe Bryant.

It’s also the reason we love John Kincade.

John grew up in Philadelphia and now hosts a local sports talk radio show in Atlanta as well as a national radio show. But that's not why we love him. We love John Kincade because he has our back. He may have an Atlanta mailing address, but if you hear him on his radio programs or as a guest on WIP, you know that his allegiance to Philadelphia has not faded in the slightest. It’s not uncommon for radio personalities to succeed in multiple markets, but you won't find many who openly proclaim a rooting interest in not one, but all enemy teams from another city.

John Kincade's career

John developed his rooting interests in his home town of Broomall. He attended Saint Anastasia School, Cardinal O’Hara High School, and Temple University, where he majored in Communications. John “began” his professional broadcasting career as a contributor to the WIP Morning Show from 1992 – 1994 before moving to Atlanta in 1995.

John’s career took off in Atlanta, where he hosted the Atlanta Thrashers Pre-Game and Post-Game shows, hosted a sports talk show on 790 The Zone, and became the very first hire for 680 The Fan, where he has hosted a radio show since 2000. John can also be heard nationally on his Sunday show on ESPN Radio, as well as a fill-in for several ESPN shows like “The Herd,” “Mike and Mike in the Morning,” and “The Dan Patrick Show.”

John is quick to point out that much of his success is due to the help of several talk show hosts in Philadelphia and jokingly admits he is a crook for stealing bits and pieces from all of them over the years. John considers himself to be a mishmash of all of them. “I would not have a national talk show today without guys like Cataldi, Eskin, and Missanelli."

John particularly feels indebted to Angelo Cataldi, who "has been a mentor on so many fronts." What makes him so special to John is that Angelo wants those around him to become stars, even if it means competing with him or relocating to another city. That, along with Angelo's huge success at WIP, is the reason why John has been “studying his career for a long time."

I had a chance to catch up with the transplanted Philadelphian and ask for his thoughts on several personal, baseball, and Phillies topics.

Living in Atlanta

A sports radio host who roots for another city's teams is a foreign concept to most Philadelphia listeners, but it seems to fit in Atlanta. ”I don’t hide my Philadelphia allegiance,” John says. If you listen to Kincade, you know that is quite the understatement. John thrives off being an outsider and says “the Philly/Atlanta thing creates a really good discourse.” Apparently so, since he has survived seventeen years in enemy territory. How is that possible? Well, according to John, as long as he’s “not a total homer” and is frank and honest with his opinions, “callers respect that.”

So, what’s the difference between hosting in Philadelphia and hosting in Atlanta? "The callers are all pretty much the same, they just have a different accent."

Chipper Jones

Some of Atlanta has definitely rubbed off on Mr. Kincade, as he has developed an infatuation with, ahem, Chipper Jones. The same guy with a .334 average, 47 home runs, and 146 RBIs in his career against the Phillies. Yes, that Chipper Jones. John considers Chipper to be “the Atlanta version of Mike Schimdt" and says Philadelphia would love Chipper so much that "there would already be a Chipper Jones statue.”

It's more than the Hall of Fame credentials that makes Chipper Jones so special. John views him as “a different breed,” "not at all aloof," and one of those “we’re gonna kick your teeth in kind of guys." Unlike today’s typical superstars, Chipper “cares about the 25th player on the bench.” During the two weeks he hosts his radio show from the Braves Spring Training facility in Orlando, John observed that Chipper routinely “shows up early and stands around giving advice to the young guys.”

If we would love Chipper Jones (the thought of which still makes me want to take a shower afterwards), there must be a Braves player Phillies fans should hate. Being the true professional he is, John wouldn’t bite on that question, but he did tell me Philadelphia will “grow to hate Craig Kimbrel” who will “be here for a long time and will only get better.” His Philly side didn’t escape completely as he continued to explain, “Other than that, nobody on the Braves roster has earned being hated.”

Moving on to the Phillies, I asked John a few questions about some of the key pieces on the team. We begin with the longest tenured athlete in the city: Jimmy Rollins.

Jimmy Rollins

If you heard John on the WIP Morning Show recently, you heard pointed comments about the Phillies' fearless leader. To say Jimmy has struggled so far this season would be an understatement (in fact, Jimmy's .229 average is 10th on the team). "After the Phillies lavished Rollins with a big contract, I expected a hell of a lot more,” John says. With the pretty new contract and with Howard and Utley MIA, John points the finger at Jimmy to take control. “You want to be paid like the man, you have to step up,” he says. After talking a good game when it was contract time, Rollins has talked the talk, but hasn't walked the walk. “Don’ talk about it, don’t Tweet about it, do it!”

Cole Hamels

With the Phillies tumbling further and further in the standings, one topic will become a bigger and bigger issue with every passing day. That topic is Cole Hamels and his upcoming monstrous contract.

John, should the Phillies re-sign Hamels?
“Absolutely 100% sign him. Every time, every day, 100%”

John is so emphatic about re-signing Hamels that he has a radical idea on how to retain Hamels AND Victorino, but you’ll have to wait for a future article to hear that one.

John Mayberry

If you have been following the blog lately, you know how high I was on John Mayberry entering the season. His early struggles and just one home run has soured many on the John Mayberry experiment. Kincade still has hope for Mayberry. “Do you remember Jim Eisenreich? Do you remember Pete Incaviglia? Not every guy is going to be an everyday corner outfielder.” Mayberry may just have “talent that’s not meant to be a 145 game player.” A perfect example, John pointed out, is Hershel Walker. Hershel was never the guy everyone expected out of the University of Georgia, but he was still a “very good football player.”

Roy Halladay

Halladay's velocity is slightly down, he nearly overheated in a game, we watched in disbelief as Halladay blew a six run lead against the Braves, and he left that same game with personal issues. Asked if he is worried about Roy Halladay, John's response was simply, "No."

Phillies expectations

Now we reach the two most important questions.

Will the Phillies win the division?
“Yes, the Phillies will win their sixth straight...in a scuffling fashion.”

Will they win the whole thing?
"Will the Phillies win the World Series as currently constructed? No way.”

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Cole Hamels provides old school baseball at its finest

Wed, 09 May 2012 01:51:00 GMT

Cole Hamels provides old school baseball at its finest
by Scott Butler 5/8/12

I’m an old school baseball guy, I’ll admit it. That’s why I thoroughly enjoyed what happened on Sunday in Washington. Sunday night’s game showed exactly how old school baseball is supposed to work and I will explain how.

The Message from Hamels

Cole Hamels wanted to send a simple message to Bryce Harper. "It's just welcome to the big leagues," said Hamels. He delivered his message with a fastball square in Harper's back.

The Response by Harper

There are several ways Bryce Harper could have responded to being intentionally hit.
1. Complain about it like his “gutless” GM and demand a suspension.
2. Charge the mound and start a brawl.
3. Shout at Hamels and wait for the catcher to “hold him back.”
4. Get even.

Bryce Harper chose the last option. Harper took his medicine like a big boy. He gave no dirty looks, took his base, went first to third on a single, and stole home right in front of the guy who just plunked him. No punches, no whining, no bench brawls, and Harper won the battle. Expanding on his “welcome to the big leagues” comment, Hamels continued to say “I think he kind of did that to me,” with that referring to how he schooled Hamels on the base paths.

The Response by Harper’s team

Harper got his personal revenge on Hamels, but the Nationals needed to send a message of their own to the Phillies. The Nats did that the next inning when Jordan Zimmerman hit Hamels while he attempted to bunt. Hamels gave a brief look to Zimmerman, then took his base and it was over.

The old school system worked perfectly and it was a beautiful thing. Hamels gave his message, Harper gave his, and the Nationals gave theirs. It’s the way baseball has been played for 100+ years and it works. It all ended there.

Until...

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo and guys like Curt Schilling decided to make one little pitch from Hamels into World War III. Rizzo called Hamels "fake tough" and said his bean ball was the most "classless, gutless, chicken[bleep] act" in his 30 years of baseball, among other ridiculous comments.

They blew this situation WAY out of proportion and there was absolutely no need for it. Bryce Harper and Jordan Zimmerman retaliated appropriately according to baseball code and IT WAS OVER. The players took care of it themselves and MOVED ON until Mom and Dad stepped in. They handled it the way men handle things: you tick me off, we punch each other in the face a few times, then we walk the other way and act like nothing happened the next day. It may seem juvenile, but it's a time tested system that works.

Old School Baseball in all its Glory

Whether or not Hamels should have thrown at Harper is up for you to decide, but I'm pretty sure this is as old school as it gets. I'll finish my demonstration with a story in Bob Brookover's recent article on the topic. Here is the story in his words:

The late Tug McGraw once told me a story about a prominent player moving from the American League to the National League who settled into the batter's box to face Bob Gibson for the first time during spring training in St. Petersburg, Fla.

According to McGraw, Gibson drilled the player in the back with a first-pitch fastball, walked to home plate, picked up the ball and said, "Welcome to the National League."

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Ghosts of Phillies Past

Sun, 06 May 2012 17:40:00 GMT

Ghosts of Phillies Past
by Scott Butler 5/6/12

You hear the voice in your head but you ignore it. Your brain keeps screaming but your heart refuses to listen. It begins as a whisper and increases in intensity with every groundout to second, every injury update, and every zero on the scoreboard. “It’s over,” the voice says.

Is it possible the best era in Phillies history is over? I’m not ready to say that just yet, but it’s hard not to look over at the Nationals and be reminded of the 2007 Phillies. The Nationals, like the ‘07 Phils, are a youthful, energetic group with the look of a team on the rise. The 2012 Phillies have the appearance of an old, unmotivated, unenthusiastic team with their best days behind them.

Waiting for the triumphant return of Ryan Howard and/or Chase Utley might be too late to salvage the season. Something must change now. So, to rip off a story from Charles Dickens, over the next three articles the Phillies will be visited by the ghosts of Phillies Past, Phillies Present, and Phillies Future. They can help us take a step back and examine where the Phillies were, where they currently stand, and where they are headed. Let's meet our first ghost.

THE GHOST OF PHILLIES PAST

Adorning a shirt with the words "Man or Machine?" inscribed on it, the Ghost of Phillies Past gallops in atop a Clydesdale steed and insists we call him “Pat the Bat.” He takes us back nearly five years to September 30, 2006. For the second straight year the Phillies are eliminated within the final two games of the season, missing the playoffs for the 13th straight season and the 22nd time in 23 years. The Phillies were a cursed team in a cursed city.

Then something strange happened. Well...in Who-ville they say that the Grinch's small heart grew three sizes that day! The William Penn Curse loosened its grip as the Phillies won the division in 2007 and won the whole thing in 2008. The curse was over and it seemed Cole Hamels was right and they would go down that Broad Street Parade again, and again, and again. It nearly happened, too, as they got all the way to Game 6 of the World Series in 2009.

What made those Phillies teams so successful?

The Phillies won based on a nucleus of young, homegrown players who were all entering the primes of their careers at the same time but not yet making huge salaries. Ed Wade drafted Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, and Cole Hamels, while Pat Gillick picked up Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth as Rule 5 players.

It was a perfect storm. In 2008, those seven players made a combined $27.6 million dollars. A group which included six all-stars and two MVP's cost the Phillies an average of $3.9 million dollars each. Think about that for a second. Those same players today make a total of $87.2 million and an average of $12.5 million (and that number will rise when Victorino and Hamels reach free agency).

It's easy to see how the Phillies won, as they had a Yankees roster for less than a third of the price.

It was a team built around offense, but the Phillies also had a pitching staff that ranked fourth in the league. It included a decent starting staff with Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, and Jamie Moyer; and a terrific bullpen with Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, JC Romero, and Chad Durbin.

Back to the Future

The 2007 - 2009 Phillies were not only built to win now, but they were designed to win in the future. With a significant portion of the Phillies roster unable to test free agency for several years, there was no reason to disrupt the nucleus. Not only that, but the Phillies farm system was full of talent that would soon produce 14 prospects who would be later used to acquire Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence.

Young, cheap, homegrown players, solid pitching, and a strong farm system was the formula. The future looked bright. What was in store for them next? The Phillies were no longer sellers at the trading deadline. They were buyers.

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I'll take an extra helping of doubles, please

Sun, 29 Apr 2012 20:40:00 GMT

I'll take an extra helping of doubles, please
by Scott Butler 4/29/12

Last night was an offensive explosion for the Phillies as they managed a whopping three doubles and one home run. OK, maybe explosion isn't the right word, but four extra base hits is something we haven't seen much in the early going for the Phils.

It doesn't take a genius to recognize that lack of power is a main contributing factor to the Phillies weak hitting, but it is a topic worthy of a deeper examination. The Phillies' lineup is under performing their career power totals across the board. Of the Phillies somewhat regulars, only three are performing at or above their career totals.

Here is a look at the Phillies 2012 vs. career slugging percentage and OPS (ranked by 2012 slugging).

Phillies 2012 vs. career slugging and OPS
Player	2012 Slugging %	2012 OPS	Career Slugging %	Career OPS
Laynce Nix	.625	1.054	.433	.723
Carlos Ruiz	.525	.858	.396	.752
Ty Wigginton	.500	.879	.444	.769
Shane Victorino	.410	.702	.437	.781
Hunter Pence	.405	.703	.483	.825
Placido Polanco	.269	.560	.405	.751
Jimmy Rollins	.256	.509	.430	.759
John Mayberry	.255	.468	.486	.801
Jim Thome	.111	.349	.555	.958

You can see that two of the new guys (Nix and Wigginton) are providing some power, but Carlos Ruiz is the only other regular who can stake that claim. Victorino and Pence aren't too far off their career totals, but Polanco and Rollins are quite a bit below what we should expect and Mayberry and Thome aren't in the same hemisphere.

As strange as it might sound, absent power from Rollins and Polanco might have the biggest impact on the offense. Obviously the Phillies aren't counting on many home runs from either player, but we do expect power in the form of doubles and triples which neither has provided. In a lineup assembled with no true power hitters, the need for extra base hits becomes that much more apparent.

It goes without saying that John Mayberry and Jim Thome have been huge disappointments. The Phillies hoped Mayberry could play the role of a pseudo Ryan Howard. If Maybuggles (as I like to call him) was able to provide anywhere near his .513 slugging percentage of last season, it would allow the entire rest of the lineup to fit in more natural roles and play with less pressure. Jim Thome, well, I think his stats speak for themselves.

Nix and Wigginton, on the other hand, have been just what the doctor ordered. Their contributions have helped keep the Phillies' heads above water, or technically just below water, but you get the point. Their thirteen RBIs comprise nineteen percent of the entire team total.

Nix and Wigginton are great examples of what it takes to win as a team. When some guys are struggling, other guys need to step up. Ruben Amaro brought them in as role players; so far they are playing the roles of heavy lifters.

Despite the Phils' weak hitting, their dominant starting pitching has kept them hovering around .500. With hitting season right around the corner, we just might see more extra base hits and a lot more Phillies wins.

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Don't worry about the Nationals

Sat, 28 Apr 2012 04:37:00 GMT

Don't worry about the Nationals
by Scott Butler 4/27/12

The Washington Nationals are 14-4 and the Phillies are 9-10. Calm down, now. Quit eyeing the Ben Franklin bridge for a good jumping point just yet.

There’s really no need to keep a watchful eye on the Nationals at this point, because statistically speaking their record is irrelevant. The Nationals are on pace for a 126 win season, which would be the best record in the history of Major League Baseball. 126 wins is ten more than any other team in MLB history (116 by Seattle in 2001) and their .778 winning percentage is 16 points higher than (and roughly 3 games ahead of) the next best (.762) recorded by the Cubs in 1906.

Trust me, the Nats will not finish with 126 wins or anything close to that number. So, the question to ask is: how many games do you think the Nationals will win this season? 90? 95? 100?

Let’s assume the Nationals are the real deal and are on their way to 100 wins. That’s a .617 winning percentage. If they had a .617 winning percentage right now over their first 18 games they would be 11-7.

Rather than chasing their actual record of 14-4, chase 11-7 because that will eventually be their true pace. The Phillies at 9-10 would only be 2.5 games back of the 100-win Nats.

You could also look at it another way. If the Nats dropped down to that .617 winning percentage through the next 18 games they would have a total record of 22-14, meaning in their next 18 they would go 8-10. Now that's a manageable number. The Phillies would still have to go 13-4 to tie them, but again that’s assuming the Nationals win 100 games.

On a 95 win pace, the Nats would have a 21-15 record through their next 18 games and the Phillies would need to go 12-5 to catch them.

If the Nats are a 90 win team they would have a 20-16 record through their next 18 and the Phils would need to go 11-6 to tie them.

We hear it again, and again, and again, but it is only April and there are still over 140 games left this season. The Phillies obviously need to play better to even have a sniff of the postseason, so leave your focus there.

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There is a silver lining: at least we aren’t Pirates fans. Not only

Thu, 26 Apr 2012 01:01:00 GMT

There is a silver lining: at least we aren’t Pirates fans. Not only did Pittsburgh’s wimpy, whiny, hockey team get knocked around by the Flyers, but the Pirates are dead last in average, runs, hits, doubles, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. The Buccos have five more RBIs as a team than Matt Kemp, eleven players have at least equaled the Pirates in home runs, and they have been out homered by four players.

are quickly fading. The stats are not pretty: a .175 batting average with no homers and just two RBIs through the first 16 games. Stats like those will hurt any lineup. What

Mayberry has been at the plate six times with a runner at third base and less than two outs. All he needs to do in that situation is hit a lazy fly ball or a weak grounder up the middle and a run scores. That should be a free run, and it is a free run 62 percent of the time on average in MLB. Yet out of those six opportunities, Mayberry has knocked in exactly zero runs. Over one run wasted per series is particularly painful for a Phillies offense that ranks 15 out of 16 in the National League.

Another troubling number is that Mayberry has not worked one walk all season. It’s an indication that the baseball looks like a marble to big John right now and it also blasts a gaping hole in the Phillies lineup.

A .175 average and 2 RBIs hurts the team no matter how you look at it, but if Mayberry could have just taken advantage of the easy scoring situations and worked a few walks, his slump would be far less impactful. If Mayberry was just near the MLB average success rate of 62% with a runner on third and less than two outs, he would have four more RBIs. And if he was right around the MLB average walk percentage of 8.9% he would have reached base three more times. So just by accepting free passes and hitting routine fly balls, Mayberry would have seven less at-bats (since neither counts as an AB) and he would improve his average 37 points to .212. Not a dazzling figure, but less repulsive.

The greater impact is on the team as a whole. The Phillies as an offense have scored three less runs than their opponents, but four easy RBIs from Mayberry would give the Phils one more run than their opponents. Three more walks is harder to quantify, but it is three less outs, three more base runners, and more stress on opposing pitchers.

It’s been a tough go so far for Ben Francisco…uh…I mean John Mayberry. Mayberry is hitting .219, has zero walks, one extra base hit, one RBI, and is still waiting for his first dinger. Maybe the overwhelming weight on his shoulders is getting to the young Phillies slugger. But there is a solution for that: move Mayberry to the middle of the lineup. Yes, you heard me right, moving Mayberry to the middle of lineup might just be just what he needs to get going.

to succeed while Mayberry has great pressure. Werth was a small piece of an offense that scored 892 runs in the previous year (2007). The Phillies counted on Utley, Howard, and Burrell to score runs and few of the eyes were on Werth. Mayberry’s team may struggle to score 600 runs and the Phillies are counting on Mayberry as a main piece to drive in runs. The spotlight is on Mayberry because he is essential to the success of the Phillies.

Secondly, Jayson Werth had Utley, Howard, and Burrell for protection. Granted, Werth generally batted directly those players and didn’t have the advantage of, say, the lucky guy batting before Barry Bonds. But, following three power hitters isn’t exactly the worst place to live. Pitchers were willing to pitch around the big guys and take their chances with Werth, meaning Werth saw a lot of fastballs and predictable counts.

That’s why Charlie needs to bat him third or fourth in the lineup in front of Hunter Pence. Putting Pence behind him is the only protection he can offer Mayberry. The Phillies have plenty of decent hitters, but none that cause fear in the opponent like Pence. Pitchers don’t want to nibble with Mayberry and risk facing Pence with an extra base runner, so they are more likely to give in with fastballs. Let's now examine each lineup scenario.

Bat Mayberry third: Mayberry is perfectly suited to bat third with his speed and the ability to hitter for average and power. It also allows Pence to remain in the cleanup spot. Rollins is not the ideal #3 hitter anyway and it gives Manuel more flexibility with the rest of the lineup.

Moving Mayberry makes a lot of sense for the protection it offers, but it places even more pressure on him. It's possible he starts pressing even more and the plan totally backfires, but I think it's more important for Mayberry to see more fastballs and predictable counts. Once he knocks the ball around a few times, it might give him more confidence and allow him to adjust easier.

After Papelbon, Antonio Bastardo has the best natural talent of all the relievers. However, Bastardo had an 11.05 ERA last September and his conflicting comments with Rich Dubee are what caught my attention. At the time, Bastardo admitted, "I need a rest right now" and "my arm's not hurt, it's just tired," while Dubee's response was plainly, “He’s not tired.” Bastardo's curious lack of velocity in spring training is also a bit concerning. Bastardo has a live arm and probably all of this means zilch, but let's see him prove it.

14th in the National League with two runs per game. One home run and just 4 extra-base hits in four games. A .190 average with runners in scoring position. It doesn't take a math genius to see that this is not a winning formula.

Opening Day evoked Phillies fans' worst fears. Opening Day also stimulated Phillies fans' greatest dreams. The Phillies, in one Opening Day performance, shrink wrapped all of the discussion points of the entire offseason in a few hours in Pittsburgh. From the great pitching to the inept offense to the glimmer of hope from Mayberry, here are some of the hints the Phillies provided as to what we can expect this season.

These are not your older brother's 2008 Phillies. They are not as bad as they looked on Opening Day, but we can expect the Phillies will have to fight for every last run. Home runs have been replaced with bloop hits, infield singles, and sacrifice RBIs. Get used to it.

Wins and losses generally come down to run differential: how many more/less runs did you score than you gave up? Last year, the Phillies had a differential of +184, which was 101 runs more than the second best team. I like to start with a guesstimate of how many runs they will gain/lose at each position and go from there.

I expect roughly the same output in 2012 from Ruiz, Rollins, Polanco, and Victorino. Let’s say the Phillies lose 30 runs without Howard and 20 without Utley. Remember, these are just rough numbers. I expect Mayberry/Nix/Pierre to essentially equal Ibanez in runs (you heard me right - see ) and gain 25 runs with a full year of Pence in right field. That’s a drop of 25 total runs as a team. That would give the Phillies 688 runs and would leave their NL ranking unchanged from last year at 7th place.

Hamels was born with a good fastball and one of the best changeups in the game, but in my mind the biggest reason to believe Hamels is a Cy Young candidate is that he is finally ready mentally. Cole proved in the 2008 postseason that he is not afraid of a little pressure. Those were the good times, but as they say in The Mental ABC’s of Pitching, "if you want to know who I am, watch me when things aren't going my way."

Things were not going Cole's way in 2009. Hamels experienced failure for the first time in his entire life that season and had no clue to handle it. His body language was terrible, he constantly complained to umpires, and in some cases he even showed up his teammates for fielding mistakes. Hamels was a textbook case of what not to do.

So, like any good pitcher, Hamels worked on his mental game. Even though his pitching was poor in April of 2010 and the boo birds visited in full force, Hamels hung in there. His demonstrated positive body language, did not complain to the umps, and never even once lashed out at the fans who booed him despite almost single handedly ending their championship drought two years earlier. Hamels stated in his recent

2010 provided more examples of his maturation. When the Phillies brought Cliff Lee back to town, Hamels was now considered the fourth best starter . That might have bothered the old Cole Hamels, but the new one didn’t notice. And he didn’t whine a bit when his team gave him no run support for the second straight season.

The best example of his maturity came in against the Cardinals. The home plate umpire was squeezing him, the Cardinals were fouling off every pitch within a yard of the plate, and his pitch count rose exponentially. While I threw stuff at the TV, Hamels tuned out the frustration and maintained his cool in six of the toughest innings I can remember. As Hamels himself said, "I knew that every pitch mattered. Every inning mattered. We're not in our home park anymore. You definitely focus and try to dig deep."

A 10-11 record and a 4.32 ERA in 2009 forced Hamels to add another pitch, a cutter, to his arsenal. After some early struggles in 2010 and a 4.08 ERA through June, he boasted a 2.28 ERA in the last three months. Last season, Hamels set career best marks for a season in ERA, CG, WHIP, H/9, HR/9, BB/9, and SO/BB ratio. In the year and a half since “mastering” the cutter, Hamels has a dazzling 2.61 ERA. That mark alone is better than four of the last eight Cy Young winners.

The question remains: is Hamels ready to take the next step towards becoming an elite pitcher? The numbers say Hamels is plenty capable of doing just that.

Finally, how much better might Hamels be with a little run support?

When I picked Hamels to win the Cy Young last year, it was little more than blind faith and hope since he had never performed at quite that level before. Now a year and a half of statistics exist to back up a Cy Young prediction.

I just hope he wins the award after

I think the key to determining Worley’s success in 2012 is to answer this question: why did his ERA increase by 2.15 runs from his first 11 games to his last 12? Logic would tell you that his luck ran out and hitters finally adjusted to the young righty. I would argue the opposite, that even while his ERA was skyrocketing, in many ways Worley was improving.

His control numbers are one area that improved. Worley threw 63.6% of his pitches for strikes in his first eleven games and 65.2% in his last twelve. His walks/9 decreased from 3.41 to 2.83, while his strikeouts per game rose from 6.69 to 9.85. That difference improved his strikeout to walk ratio from nearly 2:1 to nearly 4:1.

Since Worley was around the plate more, it stands to reason that hitters would make more contact. But that was not the case. His contact percentage against went from 87.2% to 87.1% and his swing and miss percentage only changed from 43.1% to 41.6%.

If his strikeouts increased, walks decreased, and batters made just as much contact, what caused Worley’s ERA to double?

One reason is a spike in his home run rate. Worley's home run/fly ball rate during his hot stretch was 2.6%, which is less than 3 home runs per 100 fly balls and way below the MLB average of 9.6%. Worley probably deserves some credit for keeping the ball in the yard, but even Hall of Fame pitchers have not maintained such an obscenely low rate.

A few percentage points makes a significant difference. If Worley had equaled the MLB average, he would have tossed 8 more home run balls. If each homer scored 1.5 runs, that equals 12 more runs and his ERA would have increased 1.52 points to 3.54.

. Line drives result in hits 73% of the time versus 23% for grounders, which might explain why his batting average against rose from .199 to .278. More line drives indicate batters were seeing the ball better. Worley might have thrown the same amount of strikes, but hitters were making better contact on the balls they hit.

Worley's LOB% was 79.9% in the first half and 76.2% in the second half, both just slightly higher than the MLB average of 72.5%. Worley's high LOB demonstrates his mental toughness and ability to handle adverse situations. It’s also good to see a reasonable number here, because too many weird things happen in the game of baseball to expect any pitcher to maintain an abnormally high rate.

FIP is supposed to be the ultimate non-luck stat, determining what a pitcher's ERA would be in a luck-neutral environment by excluding defense and game situations. It theoretically tells you what a pitcher’s ERA should be. Worley's FIP in his first eleven games was 3.36 and his last twelve it was 3.29.

Vanimal’s FIP seems to validate the rest of his numbers. We saw that even though his ERA ballooned, batters weren’t behaving much differently at the plate and Worley was walking less and striking out more. His FIP reflected that, suggesting that he was much more consistent than his ERA indicated. At the end of the day, Worley's fortune evened out over the entire season and his overall ERA of 3.01 was close to his FIP of 3.32.

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I should have never turned on that Phillies game

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 03:19:00 GMT

I should have never turned on that Phillies game
by Scott Butler 4/24/12

The pain of Phillies viewing has reached an all-time high. While suffering through six grueling innings last night (any longer and I would have tried out the noose in the garage for size), I was reminded of the latest South Park episode in which the boys nearly died of boredom while zip lining. Not realizing the danger they faced, thousands of Phillies fans across the Delaware Valley nearly faced the same death by boredom.

I’m hesitant to flip on the news for fear of countless stories of folks who attempted to watch the entire Phillies game and lost their lives in the process. Had the Phils not eventually scored 5 late runs, we might be looking at catastrophic death totals.

Let’s face it, the Phillies are a horrifically boring baseball team right now. When Victorino leads the team in homers and Freddy Galvis is tied for the team lead in doubles, your baseball team is as much fun as watching paint dry or flipping on X Factor. The Phillies can single a team to death, but they are third from the bottom in the league in homers and second to last in extra base hits and walks.

It’s enough to make you stare at the wall for fun, rip off your fingernails just to discover what it feels like, or listen to Bob Dylan for his beautiful voice.

There is a silver lining: at least we aren’t Pirates fans. Not only did their wimpy, whiny, hockey team get knocked around by the Flyers, but the Pirates are dead last in average, runs, hits, doubles, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. The Buccos have 5 more RBIs as a team than Matt Kemp, eleven players have at least equaled the Pirates in home runs, and they have been out homered by four players.

Feel better?

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John Mayberry hurting Phillies

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 01:43:00 GMT

John Mayberry hurting Phillies
by Scott Butler 4/23/12

A bulk of the Phillies offensive woes can be placed squarely upon the broad shoulders of John Mayberry. My hopes of a big year from Mayberry are quickly fading. The stats are not pretty: a .175 batting average with no homers and just 2 RBIs through the first 16 games. Stats like those will hurt any lineup. What destroys the Phillies lineup is his inability to even make productive outs.

Mayberry has been at the plate six times in with a runner at third base and less than two outs. All he needs to do in that situation is hit a lazy fly ball or a weak groundout up the middle and a run scores. That should be a free run, and it is a free run 62 percent of the time on average in MLB. Yet out of those six opportunities, Mayberry has knocked in exactly zero runs. Over one run wasted per series is particularly painful for a Phillies offense that ranks 15 out of 16 in the National League.

Another troubling number is that Mayberry has not worked one walk once all season. It’s an indication that the baseball looks like a marble to big John right now and it also blasts a gaping hole in the Phillies lineup.

A .175 average and 2 RBIs hurts the team no matter how you look at it, but if Mayberry could have just taken advantage of the easy scoring situations and worked a few walks, his slump would be far less impactful. If Mayberry was just near the MLB average success rate of 62% with runners on third with less than two outs, he would have 4 more RBIs. And if he was right around the MLB walk percentage of 8.9% he would have reached base 3 more times. So just by accepting free passes and hitting routine fly balls, Mayberry would have seven less at-bats (since neither counts as an AB) and he would improve his average 37 points to .212. Not a dazzling figure, but it sounds less repulsive.

The greater impact is on the team as a whole. The Phillies as an offense have scored 3 less runs than their opponents, but 4 easy RBIs from Mayberry would give the Phils 1 more run than their opponents. Three more walks is harder to quantify, but it is three less outs, three more base runners, and more stress on opposing pitchers.

That said, John Mayberry has been frighteningly inadequate through the first 15 games. We've seen pitchers routinely bust him inside, which is an expected adjustment for a young hitter to make and one that requires a bit of a long leash and a lot of patience from Charlie Manuel. But Major League hitters must be able to hit fastballs down the middle in predictable counts. Mayberry has not hit those pitches on countless occasions, and that is something Charlie cannot withstand much longer. If John Mayberry continues failing to perform the simplest of offensive tasks, he may find himself spending the rest of his career in minor league purgatory.

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Phils Baseball | Blog for Phillies Fans

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